1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints The report presents the performance of major stock indices on July 9th, including their price movements, trading volumes, and the impact of different sectors on these indices. It also provides data on the basis of stock index futures, the cost of opening positions, and the points difference in contract roll - over and its annualized cost. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Index Trends - On July 9th, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.13% to close at 3493.05 points with a trading volume of 595.963 billion yuan; the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.06% to close at 10581.8 points with a trading volume of 909.214 billion yuan [1]. - The CSI 1000 Index fell 0.27% with a trading volume of 303.196 billion yuan, opening at 6412.14, closing at 6390.47, with a high of 6431.09 and a low of 6375.08 [1]. - The CSI 500 Index fell 0.41% with a trading volume of 207.864 billion yuan, opening at 5980.65, closing at 5953.49, with a high of 5992.13 and a low of 5940.18 [1]. - The SSE 50 Index fell 0.26% with a trading volume of 83.536 billion yuan, opening at 2746.14, closing at 2739.92, with a high of 2759.06 and a low of 2739.21 [1]. - The CSI 300 Index fell 0.18% with a trading volume of 305.399 billion yuan, opening at 3997.5, closing at 3991.4, with a high of 4016.74 and a low of 3987.43 [1]. 3.2 Impact of Sector Movements on Index - The CSI 1000 Index dropped 17.23 points compared to the previous close. Sectors such as environmental protection, media, and banking had a positive impact, while power equipment, non - ferrous metals, and electronics had a negative impact [2]. - The CSI 500 Index dropped 24.25 points compared to the previous close. Power equipment, non - ferrous metals, and electronics had a negative impact [2]. - The CSI 300 Index dropped 7.05 points compared to the previous close. Power equipment, pharmaceutical biology, and banking had a positive impact, while electronics, non - bank finance, and non - ferrous metals had a negative impact [2]. - The SSE 50 Index dropped 7.27 points compared to the previous close. Pharmaceutical biology, food and beverage, and communication had a positive impact, while electronics, non - bank finance, and non - ferrous metals had a negative impact [2]. 3.3 Basis of Stock Index Futures and Annualized Cost of Opening Positions - For IM contracts, IM00 had an average daily basis of - 32.46, IM01 of - 106.22, IM02 of - 179.85, and IM03 of - 367.73 [13]. - For IC contracts, IC00 had an average daily basis of - 22.0, IC01 of - 78.52, IC02 of - 128.99, and IC03 of - 252.77 [13]. - For IF contracts, IF00 had an average daily basis of - 16.7, IF01 of - 33.74, IF02 of - 41.77, and IF03 of - 75.91 [13]. - For IH contracts, IH00 had an average daily basis of - 14.68, IH01 of - 19.67, IH02 of - 19.96, and IH03 of - 19.67 [13]. 3.4 Points Difference in Contract Roll - over and Its Annualized Cost - The report provides data on the points difference in contract roll - over and its annualized cost for IM, IC, IF, and IH contracts at different time points throughout the trading day [21][23][25].

Group 1: Investment Ratings - Urea: Cautiously bullish [1] - Soda Ash: Sideways [1] - Glass: Sideways [1] Group 2: Core Views - Urea: On Wednesday, the spot price of urea strengthened slightly, with prices in Shandong and Henan rising to 1,840 yuan/ton. The daily output was 19.91 tons, a daily decrease of 0.03 tons. The Indian tender provides support, but the final impact needs further observation. The market remains firm, and subsequent focus should be on the final tender price and export policy [1]. - Soda Ash: On Wednesday, the spot price of soda ash was still being adjusted downward in some areas. The trading sentiment was subdued, but the futures market rose for several days. The industry's operating rate reached 82.58%. The supply and demand of the spot market are weak, and the price is in a downward range. Attention should be paid to inventory data, market sentiment, and downstream production changes [1]. - Glass: On Wednesday, the spot price of glass remained stable at 1,173 yuan/ton. The supply was stable, with a daily melting volume of 15.84 tons. The demand continued to follow up, but the trading atmosphere declined slightly. The market drive is limited, and the price needs more positive factors to rise [1]. Group 3: Market Information Urea - On July 9, the number of urea futures warehouse receipts was 2,245, a decrease of 362 from the previous trading day, with 0 valid forecasts [4]. - On July 9, the daily output of the urea industry was 19.91 tons, a decrease of 0.03 tons from the previous working day and an increase of 2.02 tons from the same period last year. The operating rate was 85.98%, a 3.36 - percentage - point increase from 82.62% in the same period last year [4]. - On July 9, the spot prices of small - particle urea in various domestic regions increased, with Shandong and Henan at 1,840 yuan/ton, up 20 and 30 yuan/ton respectively [4]. - As of July 9, the inventory of domestic urea enterprises was 96.77 tons, a decrease of 5.08 tons (-4.99%) from the previous week [5]. Soda Ash & Glass - On July 9, the number of soda ash futures warehouse receipts was 3,736, a decrease of 297 from the previous trading day, with 476 valid forecasts; the number of glass futures warehouse receipts was 799, a decrease of 3 from the previous trading day [7]. - On July 9, the spot prices of soda ash in some regions decreased. For example, the light soda ash in North China dropped by 20 yuan/ton, and in East China, it dropped by 30 yuan/ton [7]. - On July 9, the operating rate of the soda ash industry was 85.58%, up from 82.2% the previous working day [8]. - On July 9, the average price of the float glass market was 1,173 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, and the daily output was 15.84 tons, also unchanged [8]. Group 4: Chart Analysis - The report includes multiple charts showing the closing prices, basis, trading volume, and price spreads of urea and soda ash futures, as well as the spot price trends of urea and soda ash, and the futures price spreads between urea - methanol and glass - soda ash [10][11][15][19][20][22]. Group 5: Research Team - Zhang Xiaojin, the research director of resource products at Everbright Futures Research Institute, focuses on sugar industry research and has won many awards [25]. - Zhang Linglu, an analyst at Everbright Futures Research Institute, is responsible for researching futures varieties such as urea, soda ash, and glass and has won multiple honors [25]. - Sun Chengzhen, an analyst at Everbright Futures Research Institute, is engaged in fundamental research and data analysis of varieties such as cotton, cotton yarn, and ferroalloys [25].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints The report is a daily monitoring report on iron ore basis and spreads, presenting data on futures contract prices, spreads, basis, and variety spreads, as well as relevant regulatory changes in iron ore futures contracts [1][4][7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Contract Prices and Spreads - **Futures Contract Prices**: The closing prices of I05, I09, and I01 contracts increased by 2.5, 3.5, and 3.0 respectively compared to the previous day [4]. - **Contract Spreads**: The spreads of I05 - I09, I09 - I01, and I01 - I05 changed by -1.0, 0.5, and 0.5 respectively compared to the previous day [4]. 3.2 Basis - **Basis Data**: The basis of various iron ore varieties showed different changes, with some increasing and some decreasing [7]. - **Basis Charts**: Multiple charts presented the basis trends of different iron ore varieties over time [9][10][11]. 3.3 Regulatory Changes in Iron Ore Futures Contracts - **Increased Deliverable Varieties**: Four new deliverable varieties (Benxi Concentrate, IOC6, KUMBA, Ukraine Concentrate) were added, and four more (Taigang Concentrate, Magang Concentrate, Wugang Standard Powder, SP10 Powder) were later added [12]. - **Adjusted Brand Premiums**: The brand premiums of most deliverable varieties were adjusted to 0 yuan/ton, except for PB powder, BRBF, and Carajas powder with a premium of 15 yuan/ton [12]. - **Adjusted Substitute Quality Differences and Premiums**: The allowable ranges of iron grade and other elements were adjusted, and a dynamic adjustment mechanism for iron element premium was introduced [12]. 3.4 Variety Spreads - **Variety Spread Data**: The spreads between different iron ore varieties showed various changes, such as the spread between PB block and PB powder increasing by 1.0 [14]. - **Variety Spread Charts**: Multiple charts presented the spread trends between different iron ore varieties over time [16][18][21].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - On July 9th, polysilicon showed a volatile and upward trend, with the main contract 2508 closing at 39,270 yuan/ton, an intraday increase of 5.03%, and the position increasing by 13,360 lots to 97,187 lots. The SMM polysilicon N-type silicon material price rose to 40,000 yuan/ton, and the price of the lowest deliverable N-type silicon material also rose to 40,000 yuan/ton. The spot premium over the main contract widened to 730 yuan/ton. Industrial silicon showed a volatile and downward trend, with the main contract 2509 closing at 8,140 yuan/ton, an intraday decrease of 0.67%, and the position increasing by 11,907 lots to 399,000 lots. The Baichuan industrial silicon spot reference price remained stable at 8,777 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The price of the lowest deliverable 421 rose to 8,250 yuan/ton, and the spot premium narrowed to 90 yuan/ton [2]. - The polysilicon market is expected to gradually clear its production capacity through measures such as cost investigation and pricing, cancellation of planned restarts, state reserve purchases, the industry association setting a benchmark cost price, and re - positioning photovoltaics as an energy product rather than a manufacturing product. Currently, the trading logic of polysilicon is in a period of policy regulation and the fermentation of various news, and the expectation of anti - involution production cuts in the industry is accelerating. The market volatility has increased, and there is strong overall support. It is not advisable to short against the trend, and one can choose to wait and see or try to go long with a light position. For industrial silicon, although the warehouse receipts have decreased, the accumulation of social inventory suppresses the rebound space, so a high - selling strategy should be adopted. Attention should be paid to the implementation of production cuts for both types of silicon and the opportunity to go long on polysilicon and short on industrial silicon after the PS/SI price ratio rebounds [2]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Research Viewpoints - Polysilicon and industrial silicon showed different trends on July 9th. Polysilicon was volatile and upward, while industrial silicon was volatile and downward. The polysilicon market is in a period of policy - driven production capacity adjustment, and the industrial silicon market is affected by inventory [2]. 2. Daily Data Monitoring - **Industrial Silicon**: The futures settlement price of the main contract decreased by 30 yuan/ton to 8,165 yuan/ton, and the near - month contract increased by 125 yuan/ton to 8,160 yuan/ton. Among the spot prices, the price of some grades such as the non - oxygenated 553 silicon in Sichuan and the oxygenated 553 silicon in Kunming increased by 50 yuan/ton, while the price of the 421 silicon for organic silicon use in Kunming decreased by 100 yuan/ton. The current lowest deliverable price remained unchanged at 8,250 yuan/ton, and the spot premium decreased by 125 yuan to 90 yuan/ton. The industrial silicon warehouse receipts decreased by 285, and the social inventory decreased by 400 tons [4]. - **Polysilicon**: The futures settlement price of the main contract increased by 885 yuan/ton to 39,270 yuan/ton, and the near - month contract decreased by 415 yuan/ton to 37,535 yuan/ton. The N - type polysilicon material price increased by 1,000 yuan/ton to 40,000 yuan/ton. The current lowest deliverable price increased by 1,000 yuan/ton to 40,000 yuan/ton, and the spot premium increased by 115 yuan to 730 yuan/ton. The polysilicon warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 2,780, and the Guangzhou Futures Exchange inventory increased by 0.5 million tons to 8.34 million tons [4]. - **Organic Silicon**: The price of DMC in the East China market remained stable at 10,800 yuan/ton, the prices of raw rubber and 107 glue remained unchanged, and the price of dimethyl silicone oil increased by 2,000 yuan/ton to 14,000 yuan/ton [4]. - **Downstream Products**: The prices of silicon wafers (single - crystal M10/G12) and battery cells (single - crystal M10/G12) remained unchanged [4]. 3. Chart Analysis 3.1 Industrial Silicon and Cost - side Prices - Charts show the prices of different grades of industrial silicon, grade price differences, regional price differences, electricity prices, silica prices, and refined coal prices [5][7][10] 3.2 Downstream Product Prices - Charts display the prices of DMC, organic silicon products, polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components [13][17][19] 3.3 Inventory - Charts present the inventory of industrial silicon futures, industrial silicon factory warehouses, industrial silicon weekly industry inventory, DMC weekly inventory, and polysilicon weekly inventory [22][23][25] 3.4 Cost and Profit - Charts show the average cost and profit levels of main production areas, weekly cost and profit of industrial silicon, profit of the aluminum alloy processing industry, cost and profit of DMC, and cost and profit of polysilicon [28][30][32] 4. Non - Technical Content (Team Introduction) - The non - ferrous metals team of Everbright Futures Research Institute includes Zhan Dapeng, Wang Heng, and Zhu Xi, with their respective educational backgrounds, research directions, and professional qualifications introduced [34][35][36]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - All the analyzed energy and chemical products are rated as "Oscillating" [1][2][3][4] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Crude Oil**: On Wednesday, oil prices oscillated. The EIA data showed an increase in US crude oil inventories last week, while gasoline and distillate inventories decreased. The market demand is strong as it digests OPEC+'s production increase without inventory accumulation. With OPEC+ increasing supply, the demand remains resilient, leading to an oscillating and slightly upward - trending oil price [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: The main contracts of high - and low - sulfur fuel oil rose on Wednesday. The domestic refinery operating rate decreased slightly. The supply of low - sulfur fuel oil in Singapore is expected to be tight, while the supply pressure will continue to suppress the Asian high - sulfur fuel oil market. In the short term, it will mainly oscillate following the cost - end crude oil [1][2]. - **Asphalt**: The main asphalt contract rose on Wednesday. The inventory level was stable week - on - week, and the operating rate increased. The impact of the adjustment of the consumption tax deduction policy has not yet appeared. The supply in July is stable with a slight increase. The demand in the south is slowly recovering, while the rainfall in the north hinders demand. It will oscillate following the cost - end crude oil [2]. - **Polyester**: The prices of polyester products such as TA, EG, and PX rose slightly on Wednesday. The sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were weak. TA inventory may gradually accumulate, and there is a strong expectation of inventory accumulation for ethylene glycol in the third quarter, with its price under pressure [2]. - **Rubber**: The prices of rubber products such as RU, NR, and BR rose slightly on Wednesday. The rubber - producing areas are in full - scale tapping, raw material prices are loose, downstream tire operating rates declined, and inventory slightly increased. It is expected to oscillate weakly. Attention should be paid to rubber purchase and storage news and tariff negotiations between Vietnam and the US [3]. - **Methanol**: The production of Iranian devices is gradually recovering. Although the short - term arrival volume has not increased much, the long - term arrival volume will increase. The short - term supply shortage has eased, and the price has returned to an oscillating trend [3]. - **Polyolefins**: The upstream is still in the maintenance season, with little change in overall supply. As the off - season arrives, downstream operating rates have declined, and enterprises purchase on demand. The price is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range [4]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC)**: Recently, the profit of chlor - alkali has decreased, and enterprise operating rates have declined. Although demand has not improved significantly, the fundamentals have not deteriorated. Before the market provides obvious opportunities, short - selling is not recommended, and attention should be paid to the impact of macro - policies [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: WTI August contract closed up $0.05 to $68.38 per barrel, a 0.07% increase; Brent September contract closed up $0.04 to $70.19 per barrel, a 0.06% increase; SC2508 closed at 520.1 yuan per barrel, up 4.4 yuan per barrel, a 0.85% increase. US crude oil inventories increased by 7.1 million barrels to 426 million barrels last week, far exceeding expectations [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: The main contract FU2509 of high - sulfur fuel oil on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 0.51% to 2982 yuan per ton; the main contract LU2509 of low - sulfur fuel oil rose 0.82% to 3692 yuan per ton. As of July 9, the operating rate of domestic refineries was 63.61%, down 0.46 percentage points from last week [1][2]. - **Asphalt**: The main contract BU2509 of asphalt on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 0.86% to 3623 yuan per ton. The total inventory level of domestic refineries was 27.91%, unchanged week - on - week; the social inventory rate was 35.81%, up 0.33% week - on - week; the operating rate of asphalt plants was 35.53%, up 2.72% week - on - week [2]. - **Polyester**: TA509 closed at 4718 yuan per ton, up 0.17%; EG2509 closed at 4283 yuan per ton, up 0.37%; PX futures main contract 509 closed at 6724 yuan per ton, up 0.42%. The sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were about 40% [2]. - **Rubber**: The main contract RU2509 of natural rubber rose 60 yuan per ton to 14045 yuan per ton; NR main contract rose 25 yuan per ton to 12095 yuan per ton; BR main contract rose 5 yuan per ton to 11310 yuan per ton. As of July 6, the social inventory of natural rubber decreased by 0.02 million tons, a 0.02% decrease [3]. - **Methanol**: The spot price in Taicang was 2385 yuan per ton, the price in Inner Mongolia's northern line was 1962.5 yuan per ton, the CFR China price was 275 - 279 US dollars per ton, and the CFR Southeast Asia price was 339 - 344 US dollars per ton [3]. - **Polyolefins**: The mainstream price of East China拉丝 was 7050 - 7180 yuan per ton. The profit of oil - based PP was - 341.35 yuan per ton, and the profit of coal - based PP was 911.73 yuan per ton [4]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC)**: The price of PVC in East China was stable, with the mainstream price of calcium - carbide - based type 5 material at 4740 - 4840 yuan per ton, and the mainstream price of ethylene - based material at 4800 - 5150 yuan per ton [4]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - This part provides the basis price data of various energy and chemical products on July 10, 2025, including spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, price changes, and the quantile of the latest basis rate in historical data [5]. 3.3 Market News - The Red Sea, a global important shipping route, was attacked again last week after months of calm. The attacker is suspected to be the Yemeni Houthi rebels supported by Iran, and a cargo ship sank, causing at least 4 crew members to die [7]. - The EIA data showed that US crude oil inventories increased last week, while gasoline and distillate inventories decreased [7]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **Main Contract Prices**: It shows the closing price trends of the main contracts of various energy and chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, LPG, PTA, ethylene glycol, etc. [9][11][13][15][17][19] - **Main Contract Basis**: It presents the basis trends of the main contracts of various energy and chemical products from 2021 to 2025, such as crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, etc. [22][23][24][25] - **Inter - period Contract Spreads**: It shows the spreads between different contracts of various energy and chemical products, including fuel oil, asphalt, PTA, ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, natural rubber, etc. [36][37][38][39][41][42][44][45][47][48][49][51][52] - **Inter - variety Spreads**: It includes the spreads between different varieties such as crude oil's internal and external markets, B - W spread of crude oil, high - and low - sulfur spread of fuel oil, etc. [53][54][55] - **Production Profits**: It shows the production profit trends of products such as ethylene - based ethylene glycol, PP, and LLDPE [58][59][60][61][62] 3.5 Research Team Introduction - **Zhong Meiyan**: Assistant Director of the Research Institute and Director of Energy and Chemicals, with over ten years of experience in futures and derivatives market research [64]. - **Du Bingqin**: Analyst for crude oil, natural gas, fuel oil, asphalt, and shipping, with in - depth research on the energy industry chain [65]. - **Di Yilin**: Analyst for natural rubber and polyester, good at data analysis and logical reasoning [66]. - **Peng Haibo**: Analyst for methanol, PE, PP, and PVC, with experience in combining financial theory and industrial operations [67].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - **Stock Index**: The A-share market is expected to continue to fluctuate. The index fundamentals depend on the domestic economic recovery process. Although the corporate profit situation in the first half of 2025 has improved significantly compared to 2024, and there is support from allocation funds, the index is difficult to break through the central level and rise significantly due to credit contraction and insufficient demand under the background of debt resolution. On the other hand, it will not experience a sharp decline in the short term [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The bond market is in an environment with loose funds, stable economy, and low short-term interest rate cut expectations. With insufficient upward and downward momentum, it is expected to continue the fluctuating trend in the short term [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Stock Index**: On July 9, 2025, the A-share market fluctuated and closed down. The Wind All A index fell 0.18% with a trading volume of 1.53 trillion yuan. The CSI 1000, CSI 500, SSE 50, and SSE 300 indices also declined. The media sector led the rise, while the non-ferrous metals sector corrected. The recent Central Financial and Economic Commission emphasized the construction of a unified national market, but the impact on related themes depends on the transfer mode and scale of central fiscal incremental policies. Overseas, the Fed's interest rate cut expectation has slowed down, and the boost to domestic small-cap indices has weakened. The fundamentals of the index depend on the domestic economic recovery process, and it is expected to fluctuate [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: On July 9, 2025, treasury bond futures closed with gains. The central bank conducted 755 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repurchase operations with a stable interest rate of 1.4%. The net withdrawal of funds was 230 billion yuan. The overall capital situation was loose, and the price index remained stable. The bond market is expected to continue to fluctuate in the short term [1][2]. 3.2 Daily Price Changes - **Stock Index Futures**: On July 9, 2025, compared with the previous day, the IH, IF, IC, and IM contracts all declined, with declines of -0.14%, -0.15%, -0.47%, and -0.35% respectively [3]. - **Stock Indices**: The SSE 50, SSE 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indices also declined, with declines of -0.26%, -0.18%, -0.41%, and -0.27% respectively [3]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The TS, TF, T, and TL contracts all rose, with increases of 0.00%, 0.02%, 0.03%, and 0.14% respectively [3]. 3.3 Market News - From 2021 to 2024, China's economy maintained an average annual growth rate of 5.5%. The average contribution rate of domestic demand to economic growth was 86.4%, and the average contribution rate of final consumption to economic growth reached 56.2%, 8.6 percentage points higher than that during the 13th Five-Year Plan period [4]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **Stock Index Futures**: The report presents the trend charts of the main contracts and the basis of IH, IF, IC, and IM [6][7][9]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The report shows the trend charts of the main contracts, spot bond yields, basis, inter - period spreads, cross - variety spreads, and capital interest rates of treasury bond futures [13][15][17]. - **Exchange Rates**: The report provides the trend charts of the central parity rates of the US dollar, euro against the RMB, forward exchange rates, and exchange rates of other currency pairs [20][21][22]

股指期货日度数据跟踪 2025-07-09 图 3：中证 1000 各板块对指数贡献的涨跌点数 -5 0 5 10 15 20 电子 电力设备 计算机 机械设备 通信 有色金属 基础化工 汽车 医药生物 传媒 建筑材料 国防军工 非银金融 环保 商贸零售 房地产 建筑装饰 交通运输 钢铁 食品饮料 石油石化 美容护理 农林牧渔 家用电器 纺织服饰 轻工制造 社会服务 煤炭 综合 公用事业 银行 数据来源：Wind，光期研究所 图 4：中证 500 各板块对指数贡献的涨跌点数 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 电子 电力设备 非银金融 计算机 基础化工 传媒 机械设备 有色金属 通信 国防军工 钢铁 社会服务 汽车 家用电器 医药生物 商贸零售 建筑材料 交通运输 房地产 食品饮料 石油石化 美容护理 环保 煤炭 轻工制造 建筑装饰 纺织服饰 农林牧渔 公用事业 银行 数据来源：Wind，光期研究所 一、指数走势 07 月 08 日，上证综指涨跌幅 0.7%，收于 3497.48 点，成交额 5675.07 亿元，深成指数涨跌幅 1.47%，收于 10588.39 点，成交额 8864.32 亿元。 中证 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - On July 8, 2025, the 2509 contract of lithium carbonate futures rose 0.69% to 63,880 yuan/ton. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 350 yuan/ton to 62,900 yuan/ton, and the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased by 350 yuan/ton to 61,300 yuan/ton. The price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 57,470 yuan/ton. The warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 2,900 tons to 12,655 tons [3]. - In July, the production is expected to increase by 3.9% month - on - month to 81,150 tons. However, due to the maintenance and technological transformation of some upstream enterprises, the weekly production has slowed down, and the expected production may be adjusted downward. In terms of imports, the exports of lithium salts from Chile were basically flat from May to June, and the overall import of lithium carbonate in July is expected to change little month - on - month. In the demand side, the production schedule in July increased slightly month - on - month, and the consumption of lithium carbonate by the two major main materials increased by 3% month - on - month to about 80,800 tons. In the inventory side, the weekly inventory continued to accumulate, and the current inventory of lithium salts + lithium ore is high, about 380,000 tons of LCE according to Steel Union data [3]. - Currently, the overall market sentiment has warmed up, the warehouse receipts are at a low level, the transaction price of lithium ore has increased, lithium salt plants have announced production suspension for maintenance and technological transformation, and there are many disturbances in the market news. In the short term, the market may still run strongly. However, in the future, hedging pressure will also follow. As of now, there are no signs of production suspension or reduction at the mine end, and the social inventory of lithium ore and lithium salts is high. Opportunities for short - selling after the sentiment turns can still be observed. If the warehouse receipt inventory remains at a low level, it may hinder the smooth price correction, and the price may show a wide - range shock pattern [3]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Data Monitoring - The prices of some lithium ores increased. For example, the price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) increased by 4 dollars/ton to 658 dollars/ton, and the price of lithium mica (Li2O: 1.5% - 2.0%) increased by 25 yuan/ton to 800 yuan/ton [5]. - Among lithium salts, the prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased by 350 yuan/ton, while the prices of various types of lithium hydroxide mostly decreased by 50 yuan/ton, and the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate remained unchanged [5]. - In terms of price differences, the price difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate remained unchanged at 1,600 yuan/ton, while the price difference between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 400 yuan/ton to - 5,430 yuan/ton [5]. - The prices of some cathode materials and precursors changed slightly. For example, the prices of some ternary precursors remained unchanged, while the prices of some ternary materials and lithium iron phosphate increased slightly, and the price of cobalt acid lithium remained unchanged [5]. - The prices of lithium batteries remained stable, with no change in the prices of various types of lithium battery cells and batteries [5]. 3.2 Chart Analysis 3.2.1 Ore Prices - The report presents charts of the prices of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF), lithium mica with different Li2O contents over time from 2024 to 2025 [6][7][8] 3.2.2 Lithium and Lithium Salt Prices - Charts show the price trends of metal lithium, battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium hydroxide, and lithium hexafluorophosphate from 2024 to 2025 [12][13][14] 3.2.3 Price Differences - Charts display the price differences between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, and other relevant price differences from 2024 to 2025, as well as the basis [19][20][21] 3.2.4 Precursors and Cathode Materials - Charts show the price trends of ternary precursors and ternary materials from 2024 to 2025, as well as the prices of lithium iron phosphate, manganese acid lithium, and cobalt acid lithium [23][24][26] 3.2.5 Lithium Battery Prices - Charts present the price trends of 523 square ternary battery cells, square lithium iron phosphate battery cells, cobalt acid lithium battery cells, and square lithium iron phosphate batteries from 2024 to 2025 [31][32][33] 3.2.6 Inventory - Charts show the weekly inventory trends of downstream, smelters, and other links of lithium carbonate from November 2024 to July 2025 [36][37][38] 3.2.7 Production Costs - The chart shows the production profit trends of lithium carbonate from different raw materials such as purchased ternary pole piece black powder, lithium iron phosphate pole piece black powder, lithium mica concentrate, and lithium spodumene concentrate from 2024 to 2025 [40][41] 3.3 Research Team Introduction - The research team includes Zhan Dapeng, Wang Heng, and Zhu Xi, who have rich experience in non - ferrous and new energy research, and have obtained relevant professional qualifications and honors [44][45][46]

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: "Light Period Black: Iron Ore Basis and Spread Monitoring Daily Report" [1] - Report Date: July 9, 2025 [1] Group 2: Futures Contract Price and Spread - **Price Changes**: I05 closed at 689.5 yuan/ton, up 2.0 yuan from the previous day; I09 closed at 733.0 yuan/ton, up 2.0 yuan; I01 closed at 707.0 yuan/ton, up 3.0 yuan [3]. - **Spread Changes**: The spread of I05 - I09 remained unchanged at -43.5 yuan/ton; I09 - I01 decreased by 1.0 yuan to 26.0 yuan/ton; I01 - I05 increased by 1.0 yuan to 17.5 yuan/ton [3]. Group 3: Basis Data - **Price and Basis Changes**: Various iron ore varieties showed different price and basis changes. For example, the price of Carajás fines (卡粉) increased by 2.0 yuan to 815 yuan/ton, with the basis remaining unchanged at 34 yuan; the price of Macarthur River fines (麦克粉) increased by 3.0 yuan to 708 yuan/ton, and the basis increased by 1 yuan to 30 yuan [6]. Group 4: Variety Spread - **Spread Changes**: Many variety spreads changed. For instance, the spread of PB lump - PB fines decreased by 1.0 yuan to 148.0 yuan/ton; the spread of FMG mixed fines - Super Special fines increased by 2.0 yuan to 48.0 yuan/ton [13]. Group 5: Rule Adjustments - **Adjustments to Deliverable Varieties**: Four new deliverable varieties (本钢精粉, IOC6, KUMBA, 乌克兰精粉) were added, and the brand premium for all was set to 0, effective from the I2202 contract. Four more varieties (太钢精粉, 马钢精粉, 五矿标准粉, SP10粉) were added as deliverable brands with a brand premium of 0 yuan/ton, applicable to I2312 and subsequent contracts [11]. - **Brand Premium Adjustments**: Only PB fines, BRBF, and Carajás fines have a brand premium of 15 yuan/ton, while other deliverable brands have a premium of 0 yuan/ton [11]. - **Quality Difference and Premium Adjustments**: The allowable range of iron grade was adjusted to ≥56%, and the allowable ranges for other elements were set. A dynamic adjustment mechanism for the iron element premium (X) was introduced [11]. Group 6: Research Team - The black research team includes Qiu Yuecheng, Zhang Xiaojin, Liu Xi, and Zhang Chunjie, each with rich experience in the steel and futures industries [26].

有色商品日报 有色商品日报（2025 年 7 月 9 日） 一、研究观点 | 品 种 | 点评 | | --- | --- | | | 隔夜 LME 铜尾盘发生异动，下跌 1.22%至 9665 美元/吨；SHFE 铜主力上涨 0.69%至 | | | 80030 元/吨；国内现货铜进口亏损收窄。宏观方面，据纽约联储周二发布的月度调查 | | | 数据显示，消费者对未来一年物价上涨的中位数预期连续第二个月下降，从 3.2%回落 | | | 至 3%，创五个月新低，对未来三年和五年的年化通胀预期则分别维持在 3%和 2.6%不 | | | 变。特朗普周二签署行政令，将对等关税暂缓期推迟到 8 月 1 日，不再延期，并继续 | | | 发关税函。另外，特朗普在内阁会议上威胁对铜、药品和半导体征收高额关税，并考 | | | 虑对进口到美国的铜征收 50%的附加税，这也导致昨晚美铜和伦铜市场异动。库存方 | | 铜 | 面来看，LME 库存增加 5100 吨至 102500 吨；Comex 库存增加 301 吨至 20.12 万吨； | | | SHFE 铜仓单下降 2573 吨至 19109 吨，BC 铜仓单下降 ...