工业硅日报 工业硅&多晶硅日报（2025 年 6 月 27 日） 一、研究观点 工业硅日报 二、日度数据监测 | | | 分 项 | 2025/6/25 | 2025/6/26 | 涨 跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 工业硅 | | | | | 期货结算价（元/吨） | 主力 | 7520 | 7720 | 200 | | | | 近月 | 7540 | 7720 | 180 | | | | 不通氧553#硅(华东) | 8100 | 8100 | 0 | | | | 不通氧553#硅(黄埔港) | 8150 | 8150 | 0 | | | 不通氧553#现货价格 | 不通氧553#硅(天津港) | 7950 | 7950 | 0 | | | （元/吨） | 不通氧553#硅(昆明) | 8200 | 8200 | 0 | | | | 不通氧553#硅(四川) | 8100 | 8100 | 0 | | | | 不通氧553#硅(上海) | 8500 | 8500 | 0 | | | | 通氧553#硅(华东) | 8150 | 8200 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - All the energy and chemical products in the report are rated as "Oscillation", including crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, polyester, rubber, methanol, polyolefin, and PVC [1][3][4][6][8] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - After sharp rises and falls in the market, oil prices are likely to oscillate within a narrow range, and there is room for a slight increase in the oil price center in the future, subject to further guidance from OPEC+ production policies [1] - The Asian high - sulfur fuel oil market will be supported in the short term, but the supply from Iran and Russia is declining, and attention should be paid to the risk of significant oil price fluctuations [3] - The price of asphalt is affected by both the cost - side oil price and weak demand, and it is expected to oscillate [3] - The supply of polyester products is expected to increase, demand support is insufficient, and prices are expected to return to a low - range consolidation, with PX and TA following the cost of crude oil [4] - The rubber market has weak fundamental contradictions, and rubber prices are expected to oscillate [4] - Methanol futures prices are expected to oscillate weakly due to factors such as the expected resumption of Iranian production and the impact on port arrivals in Taicang [6] - The fundamentals of polyolefins have not improved significantly, and prices are expected to oscillate weakly due to the decline in crude oil prices [6] - PVC prices are expected to continue to oscillate as the downstream enters the off - season, but the arbitrage and hedging space is gradually narrowing [8] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Thursday, WTI August contract closed up $0.32 to $65.24 per barrel, a 0.49% increase; Brent August contract closed up $0.05 to $67.73 per barrel, a 0.07% increase; SC2508 closed at 498 yuan per barrel, down 7.4 yuan per barrel, a 1.46% decrease. Russian Urals crude oil price has fallen below the $60 per - barrel limit [1] - **Fuel Oil**: On Thursday, the main contract FU2509 of high - sulfur fuel oil on the Shanghai Futures Exchange closed down 0.03% at 3019 yuan per ton; the main contract LU2508 of low - sulfur fuel oil closed up 0.19% at 3693 yuan per ton. Singapore and Fujeirah fuel oil inventories increased week - on - week [1][3] - **Asphalt**: On Thursday, the main contract BU2509 of asphalt on the Shanghai Futures Exchange closed up 0.2% at 3563 yuan per ton. This week, the shipment volume of domestic asphalt manufacturers increased by 0.7% week - on - week, and the capacity utilization rate of modified asphalt enterprises increased [3] - **Polyester**: TA509 closed down 0.42% at 4770 yuan per ton; EG2509 closed down 0.69% at 4293 yuan per ton. Iranian ethylene glycol plants are expected to resume production, and the price center of ethylene glycol is expected to return to a low - range consolidation [3][4] - **Rubber**: On Thursday, the main contract RU2509 of natural rubber on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 270 yuan per ton to 14040 yuan per ton; the main contract of 20 - number rubber rose 335 yuan per ton to 12145 yuan per ton. The global natural rubber production in May decreased, and the consumption decreased slightly [4] - **Methanol**: The spot price in Taicang is 2765 yuan per ton. Iranian plants are expected to resume production, and methanol futures prices are expected to oscillate weakly [6] - **Polyolefin**: The mainstream price of East China wire drawing is 7150 - 7250 yuan per ton. Due to the cease - fire between Israel and Iran and the decline in crude oil prices, polyolefin prices are expected to oscillate weakly [6] - **PVC**: The prices in East, North, and South China markets fluctuate. As the downstream enters the off - season, PVC prices are expected to continue to oscillate [8] 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the basis price data of various energy and chemical products on June 26th and 25th, including spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, price increases and decreases, and basis changes [9] 3.3 Market News - The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported that as of the week ending June 20th, U.S. commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 5.8 million barrels, gasoline inventories decreased by 2.1 million barrels, and distillate inventories decreased by 4.1 million barrels [12] - An impaired facility at the 14th - phase project of the South Pars Refinery in Iran's Bushehr Province has resumed operation [12] 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: The report presents the closing price charts of the main contracts of various energy and chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, etc. [14] - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: It shows the basis charts of the main contracts of various products, such as crude oil, fuel oil, and asphalt [32] - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: Charts of inter - period contract spreads for various products, including fuel oil, asphalt, and PTA, are provided [47] - **4.4 Inter - variety Spreads**: The report includes charts of inter - variety spreads, such as the spread between domestic and foreign crude oil markets, the spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oil [64] - **4.5 Production Profits**: Charts of production profits for products like ethylene - based ethylene glycol, PP, and LLDPE are presented [73] 3.5 Team Member Introduction - The report introduces the members of the energy and chemical research team of Everbright Futures, including Zhong Meiyan, Du Bingqin, Di Yilin, and Peng Haibo, along with their positions, educational backgrounds, honors, and professional experiences [78][79][80]

光大期货金融期货日报（2025 年 06 月 27 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 昨日，A 股市场震荡收跌，Wind 全 A 下跌 0.28%，成交额 1.62 万亿元。中 | | | | 证 1000 指数下跌 0.45%，中证 500 指数下跌 0.41%，沪深 300 指数下跌 0.35%， | | | | 上证 50 指数下跌 0.34%。非银金融板块走弱，杠杆市场同步回调。美联储主 | | | | 席近日接受国会质询，表示将依据 6 至 7 月数据决定降息路径，同时点阵图 | | | | 也显示美联储内部对于降息意见分歧加大，这都使得市场开始提前计价降 | | | | 息，纳斯达克逼近历史高位。A 股同样受到提振，连续两日上涨，但 A 股股 | | | | 指目前处于历史均值以上水平，很难连续大幅冲高。此外，稳定币概念近期 | | | | 火爆，稳定币对于跨境交易结算具有较高的便利性，同时也可用作新型储备 | | | 股指 | 货币，对于一个国家的金融市场高水平对外开放意义非凡。在 A 股市场缺乏 | 震荡 | | | 热点题材 ...

软商品日报 光大期货软商品日报（2025 年 6 月 26 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 棉花 | 周三，ICE 美棉上涨 0.78%，报收 68.32 美分/磅，CF509 上涨 0.81%，报收 13645 | | | | 元/吨，主力合约持仓环比增加 18170 手至 56.01 万手，新疆地区棉花到厂价为 14832 | | | | 元/吨，较前一日上涨 65 元/吨，中国棉花价格指数 3128B 级为 14938 元/吨，较前 | | | | 一日上涨 55 元/吨。国际市场方面，美联储多位官员发表鸽派讲话，7 月降息预期 | 震荡偏 | | | 升温，美元指数跳水，美棉价格小幅走强。基本面驱动有限，关注宏观及天气扰动。 | | | | 国内市场方面，近期市场情绪升温，沪指连续两日涨超 1%，商品多数走强，郑棉 | 强 | | | 价格突破 13600 元/吨。我们认为近期棉花商业库存偏低、6 月中旬新疆天气有部 | | | | 分扰动也是主要驱动因素。综合来看，短期宏观情绪升温，基本面支撑增强，郑棉 | | | | 价格重心或将持 ...

工业硅&多晶硅日报（2025 年 6 月 26 日） 一、研究观点 点评 25 日多晶硅震荡偏弱，主力 2508 收于 30625 元/吨，日内跌幅 1.59%，持 仓增仓 7821 手至 80107 手；SMM 多晶硅 N 型硅料价格跌至 35500 元/ 吨，最低交割品 N 型硅料价格跌至 34500 元/吨，现货对主力升水扩至 3875 元/吨。工业硅震荡偏强，主力 2509 收于 7555 元/吨，日内涨幅 1.55%，持仓增仓 13217 手至 30.7 万手。百川工业硅现货参考价 8636 元/ 吨，较上一交易日持稳。最低交割品#553 价格降至 7600 元/吨，现货升 水收至 60 元/吨。西南复产增速进入瓶颈期，下游稍有排产放量，需求短 期回暖，硅厂重拾封盘不报策略，工业硅止跌但反弹难及前高。多晶硅西 南复产增量明确，终端自下而上压价，仍以偏空思路对待。月内双硅边际 或有短暂分歧，持续关注双硅比价关系，PS-SI 价差收敛机会。 工业硅日报 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 EVERBRIGHT FUTURES 1 工业硅日报 二、日度数据监测 | | 分 项 | | 2025/6/24 | ...

农产品日报（2025 年 6 月 26 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 近期，玉米 7 月合约多空主力明显减持，多头主力移仓有限，获利了结加剧行情 | 震荡 | | | 波动。期货市场虽显疲软，但现货行情表现仍偏强，主流报价仍维持相对高位， | | | | 贸易商余货有限。深加工玉米收购价格处于高位。 华北地区玉米价格主流价格 | | | | 维持稳定，局部地区窄幅调整。山东深加工企业门前到货量车辆尚可，除了部分 | | | | 本地贸易商开始出货外，部分地区东北货源继续补充华北市场，深加工企业玉米 | | | 玉米 | 收购价格整体稳定，个别窄幅调整。 销区市场玉米价格整体稳定运行。期货表 | | | | 现一般，但产区玉米报价坚挺。销区港口报价暂稳，市场高价接受度有限，饲料 | | | | 厂现货多提前期订单，刚需补库，小麦替代优势仍较明显。技术上，玉米 7 月持 | | | | 仓向 9 月转移的过程中，多头移仓有限，受仓位调整影响玉米 9 月合约上行乏力， | | | | 9 月多单减仓离场，警惕价格持续调整。 | | | 豆粕 | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On June 25, 2025, the 2509 contract of lithium carbonate futures rose 0.96% to 60,880 yuan/ton. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 300 yuan/ton to 60,200 yuan/ton, and the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased by 300 yuan/ton to 58,600 yuan/ton. The price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) decreased by 300 yuan/ton to 58,270 yuan/ton. The warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 5 tons to 22,370 tons [3]. - On the supply side, the weekly output of lithium carbonate increased month - on - month, with a more than 9% increase in June. On the demand side, the weekly inventory turnover days increased, especially for lithium iron phosphate. In June, the consumption of lithium carbonate by the two major cathode materials decreased by 10% month - on - month. On the inventory side, the weekly inventory increased by 1,352 tons to 134,901 tons. Among them, the downstream inventory decreased by 320 tons to 40,366 tons, the intermediate link inventory increased by 700 tons to 35,910 tons, and the upstream inventory increased by 972 tons to 58,625 tons. The combined inventory of lithium carbonate and lithium ore reached about 3.5 months [3]. - The current price level is basically at a phased bottom. The lithium ore price of 600 - 610 US dollars provides short - term support, but there is no inflection point in the fundamentals yet, and market sentiment remains bearish. In the short term, it is still necessary to be vigilant about the position of the 07 contract [3]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Data Monitoring - Futures: The closing price of the main contract was 60,880 yuan/ton, up 180 yuan from the previous day; the closing price of the continuous contract was 61,180 yuan/ton, up 160 yuan [5]. - Lithium ore: The price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 619 US dollars/ton, up 2 US dollars; the price of lithium mica (Li2O: 1.5% - 2.0%) was 685 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; the price of lithium mica (Li2O: 2.0% - 2.5%) was 1,210 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; the price of lithiophilite (Li2O: 6% - 7%) was 4,875 yuan/ton, down 350 yuan; the price of lithiophilite (Li2O: 7% - 8%) was 5,725 yuan/ton, down 350 yuan [5]. - Lithium carbonate: The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5% battery - grade/domestic) was 60,200 yuan/ton, up 300 yuan; the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate (99.2% industrial zero - grade/domestic) was 58,600 yuan/ton, up 300 yuan [5]. - Lithium hydroxide: The price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles/domestic) was 58,270 yuan/ton, down 300 yuan; the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (micropowder) was 63,420 yuan/ton, down 300 yuan; the price of industrial - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles/domestic) was 52,370 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan; the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (CIF China, Japan and South Korea) was 8.13 US dollars/kg, down 0.02 US dollars [5]. - Lithium hexafluorophosphate: The price was 51,700 yuan/ton, unchanged [5]. - Price differences: The price difference between battery - grade lithium carbonate and industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 1,600 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price difference between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate was - 1,930 yuan/ton, down 600 yuan; CIF China, Japan and South Korea battery - grade lithium hydroxide - SMM battery - grade lithium hydroxide was - 3.92 yuan/ton, up 166 yuan [5]. - Precursor & cathode materials: The prices of some products such as ternary precursor 523, ternary material 523, and lithium iron phosphate changed slightly, with the price of cobalt acid lithium (60%, 4.35V/domestic) up 1,500 yuan/ton to 218,350 yuan/ton [5]. - Cells & batteries: The prices of some products such as 523 square ternary cells, square lithium iron phosphate cells, and cobalt acid lithium cells changed slightly [5]. 3.2 Chart Analysis - Ore prices: Charts show the price trends of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF), lithium mica (1.5% - 2.0%), lithium mica (2.0% - 2.5%), and lithiophilite (6% - 7%) from 2024 to 2025 [6][8]. - Lithium and lithium salt prices: Charts show the price trends of metal lithium, battery - grade lithium carbonate average price, industrial - grade lithium carbonate average price, battery - grade lithium hydroxide price, industrial - grade lithium hydroxide price, and lithium hexafluorophosphate price from 2024 to 2025 [9][11][13]. - Price differences: Charts show the price differences between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade lithium carbonate and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, CIF China, Japan and South Korea battery - grade lithium hydroxide - battery - grade lithium hydroxide, battery - grade lithium carbonate (CIF Asia) - domestic, and basis from 2024 to 2025 [16][18][19]. - Precursor & cathode materials: Charts show the price trends of ternary precursors and ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, manganese acid lithium, and cobalt acid lithium from 2024 to 2025 [21][24][27]. - Lithium battery prices: Charts show the price trends of 523 square ternary cells, square lithium iron phosphate cells, cobalt acid lithium cells, and square lithium iron phosphate batteries from 2024 to 2025 [30][32]. - Inventory: Charts show the inventory trends of downstream, smelters, and other links from October 31, 2024, to June 19, 2025 [35][37]. - Production cost: A chart shows the production profit trends of lithium carbonate from different raw materials such as purchased ternary pole piece black powder, purchased lithium iron phosphate pole piece black powder, purchased lithium mica concentrate, and purchased lithium spodumene concentrate from 2024 to 2025 [39][40].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the document. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Copper: Despite concerns about demand uncertainty due to macro and geopolitical factors, the strong reality of copper is increasingly strengthening. There is a potential pattern of buying on dips. In the short - term, it is expected to maintain a volatile pattern in the absence of effective resonance between macro and micro factors, with a focus on the 78,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton range [1]. - Aluminum: Alumina shows a tendency of fluctuating upward. The electrolytic aluminum market is in a game between weakening marginal demand and low ingot - casting volume and low - warehouse - receipt squeezing effects. For waste aluminum, there is still cost support, and continuous attention should be paid to the opportunity of rolling to do long on the AD - AL spread [1][2]. - Nickel: In the short - term, the firm raw material prices provide support, but the market lacks confidence. Mid - term demand may still restrict the fundamentals to be bearish. Attention should be paid to the premium of nickel ore and the inventory of primary nickel, as well as the changes in overseas policies [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Copper**: Overnight, LME copper rose 0.65% to $9,727/ton, and SHFE copper rose 0.36% to 78,720 yuan/ton. The import of refined copper and scrap copper in China decreased, and the export window opened. The LME inventory dropped to below 100,000 tons, and the market was worried about extreme market conditions [1]. - **Aluminum**: Alumina fluctuated strongly, with AO2509 closing at 2,937 yuan/ton, up 1.07%. The spot price of alumina declined. The electrolytic aluminum market faced a game between demand and supply - side factors [1][2]. - **Nickel**: Overnight, LME nickel rose 1.14% to $15,075/ton, and SHFE nickel rose 1.19% to 119,490 yuan/ton. The stainless - steel market was in an oversupply state, and the supply and demand of nickel sulfate were both weak [2]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Copper**: The price of flat - water copper increased, and the price of waste copper also rose. The LME inventory decreased by 1,200 tons, and the SHFE warehouse receipt decreased by 955 tons [1][3]. - **Lead**: The average price of 1 lead increased by 180 yuan/ton. The lead concentrate price rose, and the LME inventory decreased by 2,125 tons [3]. - **Aluminum**: The price of aluminum in Wuxi and Nanhai changed slightly. The LME inventory decreased by 2,000 tons, and the SHFE warehouse receipt decreased by 1,620 tons [4]. - **Nickel**: The price of Jinchuan nickel increased. The LME inventory increased by 432 tons, and the SHFE nickel warehouse receipt decreased by 222 tons [2][4]. - **Zinc**: The main settlement price rose slightly. The LME inventory decreased by 575 tons, and the social inventory decreased by 0.26 tons [5]. - **Tin**: The main settlement price decreased by 0.4%. The LME inventory decreased by 25 tons, and the SHFE inventory decreased by 142 tons [5]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Spot Premium**: The document shows the spot premium trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [7][9][12]. - **SHFE Near - Far Month Spread**: It presents the near - far month spread trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2020 - 2025 [15][22][23]. - **LME Inventory**: The LME inventory trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 are demonstrated [24][26][28]. - **SHFE Inventory**: The SHFE inventory trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 are shown [31][33][35]. - **Social Inventory**: It includes the social inventory trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series from 2019 - 2025 [37][39][41]. - **Smelting Profit**: The document shows the trends of copper concentrate index, rough copper processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless - steel 304 smelting profit rate from 2019 - 2025 [43][45][47]. 3.4有色金属团队介绍 - **展大鹏**: A master of science, currently the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, a senior researcher of precious metals, a gold intermediate investment analyst, an excellent metal analyst of the Shanghai Futures Exchange, and the best industrial product futures analyst of Futures Daily and Securities Times. He has more than ten years of commodity research experience [50]. - **王珩**: A master of finance from the University of Adelaide, Australia, currently a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly researching aluminum and silicon [50]. - **朱希**: A master of science from the University of Warwick, UK, currently a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly researching lithium and nickel [51].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On June 25th, major stock indices in the A - share market showed an upward trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 1.04%, the Shenzhen Component Index rising 1.72%, the CSI 1000 Index rising 1.32%, the CSI 500 Index rising 1.68%, the SSE 50 Index rising 1.17%, and the CSI 300 Index rising 1.44% [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Index Trends - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3455.97 points with a trading volume of 620.173 billion yuan; the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 10393.72 points with a trading volume of 982.567 billion yuan [1] - The CSI 1000 Index opened at 6196.15, closed at 6276.16, with a high of 6282.11, a low of 6194.15, and a trading volume of 334.998 billion yuan [1] - The CSI 500 Index opened at 5777.74, closed at 5862.55, with a high of 5866.52, a low of 5776.12, and a trading volume of 239.26 billion yuan [1] - The CSI 300 Index opened at 3907.07, closed at 3960.07, with a high of 3963.04, a low of 3902.18, and a trading volume of 361.727 billion yuan [1] - The SSE 50 Index opened at 2714.63, closed at 2747.73, with a high of 2750.39, a low of 2707.4, and a trading volume of 102.326 billion yuan [1] 3.2 Impact of Sector Movements on Index - The CSI 1000 Index rose 81.49 points compared to the previous closing price, and sectors such as computer, electronics, and national defense and military industry significantly pulled the index up [2] - The CSI 500 Index rose 96.71 points compared to the previous closing price, and sectors such as electronics, non - bank finance, and computer significantly pulled the index up [2] - The CSI 300 Index rose 56.04 points compared to the previous closing price, and sectors such as non - bank finance, banks, and power equipment significantly pulled the index up [2] - The SSE 50 Index rose 31.81 points compared to the previous closing price, and sectors such as non - bank finance, banks, and electronics significantly pulled the index up [2] 3.3 Futures Basis and Annualized Opening Costs of Futures Contracts - For IM contracts, IM00 had an average daily basis of - 55.79, IM01 had - 121.15, IM02 had - 190.18, and IM03 had - 365.53 [13] - For IC contracts, IC00 had an average daily basis of - 38.56, IC01 had - 83.93, IC02 had - 130.6, and IC03 had - 250.11 [13] - For IF contracts, IF00 had an average daily basis of - 29.5, IF01 had - 42.27, IF02 had - 48.85, and IF03 had - 80.19 [13] - For IH contracts, IH00 had an average daily basis of - 29.28, IH01 had - 32.16, IH02 had - 31.14, and IH03 had - 31.25 [13] 3.4 Futures Contract Rollover Point Differences and Annualized Costs - For IM contracts, data on rollover point differences and their annualized costs at different times (e.g., 09:45, 10:00, etc.) are provided, such as at 09:45, IM00 - 01 was - 53.1193, IM00 - 02 was - 158.791, etc. [22] - For IC contracts, similar data on rollover point differences and their annualized costs are provided, like at 09:45, IC00 - 01 was - 26.1467, IC00 - 02 was - 90.0318, etc. [24] - For IF contracts, at 09:45, IF00 - 01 was - 5.99267, IF00 - 02 was - 13.4098, etc., with corresponding annualized costs [26] - For IH contracts, at 09:45, IH00 - 01 was - 1.29644, IH00 - 02 was 1.559889, etc., along with annualized costs [28]

光大期货煤化工商品日报 光大期货煤化工商品日报 光大期货煤化工商品日报（2025 年 6 月 26 日） 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 EVERBRIGHT FUTURES 1 一、研究观点 品种 点评 观点 尿素 周三尿素期货主力合约上涨 2.47%至 1740 元/吨。现货市场主流地区同步反弹 10～30 元/吨，山东、河南地区市场价格分别上涨至 1760 元/吨、1770 元/吨。基本面来看， 昨日尿素日产量 19.56 万吨，日环比降 0.39 万吨。需求跟进情绪转为积极，昨日主流 地区现货产销率多数维持 100%以上，个别地区 70%-80%。期现市场同步反弹受到第 二批出口配额相关消息提振，再叠加近期印度招标、港口检验渠道等，消息面对市场 情绪影响较大，预计短期尿素期货市场继续偏强运行，持续性仍需观察后续是否具有 更多利好因素驱动。继续关注出口政策动态、印标动态、国内日产及现货成交情况。 看涨 纯碱 周三纯碱期货价格震荡偏强，现货市场弱势下行，部分主流地区报价下调 20～50 元 /吨。贸易环节价格跟随盘面情绪小幅回暖，昨日沙河及其周边地区重碱自提贸易价 格 1205 元/吨，日环比涨 8 元 ...