1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The prices of most energy and chemical products are expected to fluctuate. For crude oil, it will likely have a narrow - range oscillation, and there is potential for a slight upward shift in the price center. For fuel oil, asphalt, polyester, rubber, methanol, polyolefins, and polyvinyl chloride, their prices are also expected to fluctuate, with some facing downward pressure due to factors such as supply - demand relationships and geopolitical situations [1][3][5]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Wednesday, the price center of oil rebounded slightly. The EIA inventory report showed significant declines in US commercial crude, gasoline, and distillate inventories. The geopolitical situation in the Middle East and the OPEC+ meeting on July 6 are key factors affecting the supply - demand balance and price trends of the oil market [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: The main contracts of high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil declined on Wednesday. The import and export volumes of Chinese bonded marine fuel oil in May showed different trends. In June, the supply of low - sulfur fuel oil in Singapore is expected to increase, while the high - sulfur fuel oil market in Asia is supported by summer power generation demand [3]. - **Asphalt**: The main asphalt contract fell on Wednesday. The July production plan of refineries is expected to increase year - on - year but decrease slightly month - on - month. The current influencing factors include cost - side oil prices and weak demand [3][5]. - **Polyester**: The prices of TA, EG, and PX showed different trends on Wednesday. The sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang are light, and there are plans for production cuts. The operation of Iranian terminals and the passage through the Strait of Hormuz are normal, and attention should be paid to the resumption of production of ethylene glycol plants [5]. - **Rubber**: The prices of main rubber contracts showed different trends on Wednesday. EU passenger car sales in May increased year - on - year, but the cumulative sales in the first five months decreased. The social inventory of natural rubber in China increased slightly, and the raw material prices declined [6]. - **Methanol**: The prices of methanol and its downstream products are presented. After the cease - fire between Israel and Iran, the resumption of production of Iranian plants is expected to increase the arrival volume, and the price of methanol is expected to fluctuate weakly [6]. - **Polyolefins**: The prices and production profits of polypropylene and polyethylene are provided. After the cease - fire between Israel and Iran and the decline in oil prices, the prices of polyolefins are expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [7]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride**: The prices of PVC in different regions showed different trends. As the downstream enters the off - season, the fundamentals are under pressure, but the narrowing of arbitrage and hedging space is expected to keep the price in an oscillatory state [7]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the basis data of various energy and chemical products on June 25, 2025, including spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, and their changes, as well as the position of the latest basis rate in historical data [8]. 3.3 Market News - The EIA inventory report shows that in the week ending June 20, US commercial crude, gasoline, and distillate inventories decreased significantly, while the strategic petroleum reserve increased. The product supply of US gasoline reached the highest level since December 2021, and the refinery utilization rate reached the highest level since July 2024 [10]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: The report presents the closing price charts of main contracts of various energy and chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, LPG, PTA, ethylene glycol, etc. [12][14][16] - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: It shows the basis charts of main contracts of various products, such as crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, ethylene glycol, etc., from 2021 to 2025 [30][33][37] - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: The report provides the spread charts of different contracts of various products, including fuel oil, asphalt, PTA, ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, natural rubber, etc. [46][48][51] - **4.4 Inter - variety Spreads**: It presents the spread charts between different varieties, such as the spread between domestic and foreign crude oil, the spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oil, the ratio of fuel oil to asphalt, etc. [63][67][69] - **4.5 Production Profits**: The report shows the production profit charts of ethylene - based ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, etc. [74][75][78] 3.5 Team Member Introduction - The report introduces the members of the energy and chemical research team, including their positions, educational backgrounds, honors, and professional experiences [80][81][82] 3.6 Contact Information - The company's address, phone number, fax, customer service hotline, and postal code are provided [85]

光大期货金融期货日报 光大期货金融期货日报（2025 年 06 月 26 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 股指 | 国内基本面来看，5 月 PPI 同比-3.3%，较 4 月环比下滑；新增人民币贷款 | 震荡 | | | 6200 亿元人民币，比上年同期少增 3300 亿元。化债背景下信用收缩、需求 | | | | 不足仍是当前主要矛盾，指数很难突破中枢大幅上涨。另一方面，2025 年上 | | | | 半年企业盈利情况较 2024 年有明显改善，在配置型资金托底的背景下，A 股 | | | | 指数短期同样不会出现大幅下跌的走势。预期未来指数仍以震荡为主。 | | | | 国债期货收盘，30 年期主力合约跌 0.22%，10 年期主力合约跌 0.04%，2 年 | | | | 期主力合约涨 0.01%，5 年期主力合约基本持稳。中国央行开展 3653 亿元 7 | | | | 天期逆回购操作，利率持稳于 1.4%。公开市场有 1563 亿元逆回购到期，净 | | | | 投放 2090 亿元。2025 年 6 月 25 日中国人民银行将以固定 ...

黑色商品日报 黑色商品日报（2025 年 6 月 25 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 钢材 | 螺纹钢：昨日螺纹盘面震荡回落，截止日盘螺纹 2510 合约收盘价格为 2977 元/吨，较上一交易收盘价格 | 低位整理 | | | 下跌 15 元/吨，跌幅 0.6%，持仓增加 1.09 万手。现货价格小幅下跌，成交回落，唐山地区迁安普方坯价 | | | | 格下跌 10 元/吨至 2910 元/吨，杭州市场中天螺纹价格下跌 10 元/吨至 3070 元/吨，全国建材成交量 9.32 | | | | 万吨。近日北方高温南方降雨影响需求，螺纹需求整体处于低位。不过钢厂在转产其他品种以及钢坯出口 | | | | 加大的情况下，螺纹产量也处于低位。现阶段市场供需呈现双弱格局，预计短期螺纹盘面仍低位整理为主。 | | | 铁矿石 | 铁矿石：昨日铁矿石期货主力合约 i2509 价格窄幅震荡运行，收于 703 元/吨，较前一个交易日收盘价下 | 震荡 | | | 跌 3 元/吨，跌幅为 0.4%，成交 29 万手，减仓 0.4 万手。港口现货价格有所下跌， ...

农产品日报（2025 年 6 月 25 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 周二，玉米 | | 7 月合约多空主力明显减持，多头主力移仓有限，获利了结加剧行情 价格下调 | | | 波动。周初，东北玉米价格上涨 | | 10-30 元/吨，深加工企业多数也上调收购价格， | | | 留粮意向也较为明显。产区敞口库存有限，贸易商心态较好。华北地区玉米主流 | | | | | 价格维持稳定。山东深加工企业门前到货量车辆增加，经过上周价格的上涨，除 | | | | | 了部分本地贸易商开始出货外，部分地区东北货源继续补充华北市场，少数企业 | | | | | 玉米 | | 6-10 元/吨，但主流价格保持稳定。河南、河北地区深加工窄幅上调。 | 上涨 | | 销区市场玉米价格整体稳定，部分地区窄幅上调。周末安徽省启动小麦最低保护 | | | | | 价，产区贸易商挺价心态增加，但高价下游接受度一般，执行前期订单为主，销 | | | | | 区成交价格逐步贴近报价，议价空间缩小。技术上，玉米 | | 7 月持仓向 9 月转移的 | | | ...

1. Index Trends - On June 24th, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.15% to close at 3420.57 points with a trading volume of 544.882 billion yuan; the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.68% to close at 10217.63 points with a trading volume of 869.7 billion yuan [1]. - The CSI 1000 Index rose 1.92% with a trading volume of 303.658 billion yuan, opening at 6082.74, closing at 6194.67, with a daily high of 6194.67 and a low of 6082.74 [1]. - The CSI 500 Index rose 1.62% with a trading volume of 191.935 billion yuan, opening at 5683.46, closing at 5765.84, with a daily high of 5766.02 and a low of 5683.46 [1]. - The SSE 50 Index rose 1.16% with a trading volume of 89.075 billion yuan, opening at 2685.85, closing at 2715.92, with a daily high of 2731.18 and a low of 2685.85 [1]. - The SSE 50 Index rose 1.16% with a trading volume of 89.075 billion yuan, opening at 2685.85, closing at 2715.92, with a daily high of 2731.18 and a low of 2685.85 [1]. 2. Impact of Sector Movements on Indexes - The CSI 1000 rose 116.45 points from the previous close, with sectors such as power equipment, electronics, and computer significantly contributing to the upward movement [3]. - The CSI 500 rose 91.67 points from the previous close, with electronics, power equipment, and non - banking finance sectors significantly contributing to the upward movement [3]. - The SSE 300 rose 46.13 points from the previous close, with non - banking finance, power equipment, and electronics sectors significantly contributing to the upward movement [3]. - The SSE 50 rose 31.14 points from the previous close, with non - banking finance, banks, and electronics sectors significantly contributing to the upward movement [3]. 3. Futures Basis and Annualized Opening Costs - For IM contracts, IM00 had an average daily basis of - 55.17, IM01 of - 123.04, IM02 of - 195.3, and IM03 of - 370.85 [12]. - For IC contracts, IC00 had an average daily basis of - 34.93, IC01 of - 80.85, IC02 of - 127.08, and IC03 of - 244.07 [12]. - For IF contracts, IF00 had an average daily basis of - 29.83, IF01 of - 43.83, IF02 of - 50.93, and IF03 of - 81.08 [12]. - For IH contracts, IH00 had an average daily basis of - 31.25, IH01 of - 33.89, IH02 of - 32.68, and IH03 of - 32.81 [12]. 4. Futures Roll - over Point Differences and Annualized Costs - For IM contracts, various roll - over point differences and their corresponding annualized costs are presented at different time points from 09:45 to 15:00 [21]. - For IC contracts, various roll - over point differences and their corresponding annualized costs are presented at different time points from 09:45 to 15:00 [23]. - For IF contracts, various roll - over point differences and their corresponding annualized costs are presented at different time points from 09:45 to 15:00 [23]. - For IH contracts, various roll - over point differences and their corresponding annualized costs are presented at different time points from 09:45 to 15:00 [25].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The price of the lithium carbonate futures 2509 contract rose 3.06% to 60,700 yuan/ton yesterday. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 59,900 yuan/ton, and that of industrial - grade lithium carbonate also dropped by 50 yuan/ton to 58,300 yuan/ton. The price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) declined by 200 yuan/ton to 58,570 yuan/ton. The warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 4,404 tons to 22,375 tons [3]. - On the supply side, the weekly lithium carbonate output increased month - on - month, with a more than 9% increase in June. On the demand side, the weekly inventory turnover days increased, especially for lithium iron phosphate. In June, the consumption of lithium carbonate by the two major cathode materials decreased by 10% month - on - month. On the inventory side, the total social inventory continued to increase, and the total inventory turnover days of lithium carbonate rose to about 2 months. Meanwhile, the lithium ore inventory increased slightly month - on - month. Since June is the earnings report disclosure season, the overseas shipment volume also increased. Currently, the overall inventory level of lithium ore + lithium salt reaches about 3.5 months, indicating significant inventory pressure [3]. - The current price level is basically at a stage bottom. From the perspective of the lithium ore price of 600 - 610 US dollars, there is still short - term support. However, there has been no inflection point in the fundamentals, and market sentiment remains bearish. Due to yesterday's market news disturbances, the futures price strengthened rapidly. In the short term, it is still necessary to be vigilant about the position of the 07 contract [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - The price changes of lithium carbonate futures, spot, and warehouse receipts are presented, along with the supply, demand, and inventory situations of lithium carbonate. The current price is at a stage bottom, but the fundamentals are still weak, and short - term risks exist [3]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The table shows the price changes of various products in the lithium - battery industry chain from June 23 to June 24, 2025, including futures, lithium ore, lithium carbonate, lithium hydroxide, and other products. For example, the main contract closing price of futures rose from 59,120 yuan/ton to 60,700 yuan/ton, while the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 50 yuan/ton [5]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Ore Prices**: Charts show the price trends of lithium ore products such as lithium spodumene concentrate, lithium mica, and lithium aluminum phosphate stone from 2024 to 2025 [6][8]. - **Lithium and Lithium Salt Prices**: Charts display the price trends of lithium and lithium salt products such as metallic lithium, battery - grade lithium carbonate, and industrial - grade lithium carbonate from 2024 to 2025 [9][11]. - **Price Spreads**: Charts present the price spreads of different lithium products, including the spread between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate, and the spread between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate from 2024 to 2025 [16][17]. - **Precursors & Cathode Materials**: Charts show the price trends of precursors and cathode materials such as ternary precursors and ternary materials from 2024 to 2025 [21][22]. - **Lithium Battery Prices**: Charts display the price trends of lithium battery products such as 523 square ternary cells and square lithium iron phosphate cells from 2024 to 2025 [30][31]. - **Inventory**: Charts present the inventory trends of downstream, smelters, and other links of lithium carbonate from October 31, 2024, to June 19, 2025 [35][36]. - **Production Costs**: A chart shows the production profit trends of lithium carbonate from different raw materials such as外购三元极片黑粉, 外购磷酸铁锂极片黑粉, lithium mica concentrate, and lithium spodumene concentrate from 2024 to 2025 [39][40].

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings for the industry are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - **Cotton**: On Tuesday, ICE U.S. cotton rose 0.55% to 67.78 cents/pound, and CF509 rose 0.96% to 13,610 yuan/ton. The position of the main contract increased by 26,586 lots to 541,900 lots. The cotton arrival price in Xinjiang was 14,767 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan/ton from the previous day, and the China Cotton Price Index for grade 3128B was 14,883 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan/ton. Internationally, the macro - level is the focus. With the cease - fire between Iran and Israel, the oil price dropped sharply, and inflation expectations cooled, but Powell said he was not in a hurry to cut interest rates. The U.S. dollar index weakened, and the price of U.S. cotton moved up slightly. Domestically, the price of Zhengzhou cotton futures moved up. The market sentiment was boosted by events such as the upcoming military parade and the issuance of a guidance on financial support for consumption. Currently, China's old cotton inventory is at a relatively low level in the same period in recent years, supporting the cotton price. However, the demand is weak during the off - season. Considering the macro and fundamental situation, and with no new expected negative factors in the short term, the price of Zhengzhou cotton futures has support at the bottom and may move up slowly, but the upside is limited due to the strong expectation of a bumper new cotton harvest. The report suggests paying attention to macro and weather changes [1]. - **Sugar**: Indonesia's Ministry of Agriculture expects the country's sugar production in 2025 to be 2.75 million tons, higher than last year's 2.45 million tons. It plans to import about 200,000 tons of raw sugar in 2025 to supplement food reserves, and the domestic sugar consumption is expected to reach 2.84 million tons. The spot price of Guangxi sugar - making group is 5,990 - 6,060 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton, and that of Yunnan sugar - making group is 5,790 - 5,830 yuan/ton, unchanged. With the easing of the international situation and the decline of oil prices, the sugar price is back to being fundamentally driven, and the background of a bumper harvest remains unchanged. The report suggests paying attention to the support of raw sugar at 16 cents/pound. Domestically, the spot price has been slightly adjusted, and the future focus is on the volume and rhythm of imports. In the short term, there is no directional driver, and the sugar price is expected to move in a narrow range due to the co - existence of basis support and raw sugar pressure [1]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Research Views - **Cotton**: The price of ICE U.S. cotton and Zhengzhou cotton futures increased. The macro situation affects the international cotton price, and domestic events boost market sentiment. The low inventory supports the cotton price, but the demand is weak in the off - season. The price of Zhengzhou cotton futures may move up slowly with limited upside [1]. - **Sugar**: Indonesia's sugar production is expected to increase, and it plans to import raw sugar. The international sugar price is back to fundamental - driven, and the domestic spot price has been adjusted. The future focus is on imports, and the price is expected to move in a narrow range [1]. 2. Daily Data Monitoring - **Cotton**: The 9 - 1 contract spread is 25 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan/ton; the main contract basis is 1,273 yuan/ton, down 156 yuan/ton. The arrival price in Xinjiang is 14,767 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan/ton, and the national price is 14,883 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan/ton [2]. - **Sugar**: The 9 - 1 contract spread is 151 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan/ton; the main contract basis is 335 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton. The spot price in Nanning is 6,040 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton, and in Liuzhou is 6,045 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton [2]. 3. Market Information - **Cotton**: On June 24, the number of cotton futures warehouse receipts was 10,419, down 74 from the previous day, with 300 valid forecasts. The arrival prices in different regions are as follows: Xinjiang 14,767 yuan/ton, Henan 14,917 yuan/ton, Shandong 14,910 yuan/ton, and Zhejiang 15,163 yuan/ton. The yarn comprehensive load was 53.4, unchanged from the previous day; the yarn comprehensive inventory was 27.3, up 0.2; the short - fiber cloth comprehensive load was 49.2, unchanged, and the short - fiber cloth comprehensive inventory was 33.2, unchanged [1][3]. - **Sugar**: On June 24, the spot price of sugar in Nanning was 6,040 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton, and in Liuzhou was 6,045 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton. The number of sugar futures warehouse receipts was 24,762, down 2,572 from the previous day, with 0 valid forecasts [3][4]. 4. Chart Analysis - The report provides multiple charts for cotton and sugar, including the closing price, basis, contract spread, warehouse receipts, and price index of cotton, as well as the closing price, basis, contract spread, and warehouse receipts of sugar. The data sources are Wind and the Research Institute of Everbright Futures [6][12][14][16].

工业硅日报 工业硅&多晶硅日报（2025 年 6 月 25 日） 一、研究观点 点评 | | 分 项 | | 2025/6/23 | 2025/6/24 | 涨 跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 工业硅 | | | | | | 期货结算价（元/吨） | 主力 | 7405 | 7440 | 35 | | | | 近月 | 7430 | 7465 | 35 | | | | 不通氧553#硅(华东) | 8100 | 8100 | 0 | | | | 不通氧553#硅(黄埔港) | 8150 | 8150 | 0 | | | 不通氧553#现货价格 | 不通氧553#硅(天津港) | 7950 | 7950 | 0 | | | （元/吨） | 不通氧553#硅(昆明) | 8200 | 8200 | 0 | | | | 不通氧553#硅(四川) | 8100 | 8100 | 0 | | | | 不通氧553#硅(上海) | 8500 | 8500 | 0 | | | | 通氧553#硅(华东) | 8150 | 8150 | 0 | | | 通氧55 ...

有色商品日报 有色商品日报（2025 年 6 月 25 日） 一、研究观点 | 品 种 | 点评 | | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 隔夜 LME 铜冲高回落，下跌 0.31%至 9664 美元/吨；SHFE 铜主力上涨 0.04%至 78470 | | | | 元/吨；现货进口维系亏损态势，且亏损幅度加大，出口窗口打开。宏观方面，美联 | | | | 储主席鲍威尔在国会听证会首日重申需要看到更多数据判断高关税会怎样影响通胀， | | | | 指出因为预期关税会推升通胀，所以联储至今暂停降息，他不排除关税对通胀的影响 | | | | 可能没有预期大，不排除提前降息的可能，所以 6 月 7 月数据非常关键。关税方面， | | | | 欧盟准备采取更多关税反制措施，另美关税截止日日益临近，是否延长令市场担忧。 | | | | 国内方面，央行等六部门联合印发《关于金融支持提振和扩大消费的指导意见》，后 | | 铜 | | 续政策期待性或增强。库存方面，LME 库存下降 1200 吨至 94675 吨；Comex 铜库存 | | | | 增加 890 吨至 185354 吨；SHFE 铜仓单下 ...

光大期货能化商品日报 光大期货能化商品日报（2025 年 6 月 25 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周二油价重心继续下挫，伊以达成停火协议，市场担忧情绪缓和。 | | | | 其中 WTI 8 月合约收盘下跌 4.14 美元至 64.37 美元/桶，跌幅 | | | | 6.04%。布伦特 8 月合约收盘下跌 4.34 美元至 67.14 美元/桶，跌 | | | | 幅 6.07%。SC2508 以 502.3 元/桶收盘，下跌 51.3 元/桶，跌幅为 | | | | 9.27%。伊朗最高国家安全委员会发表声明，宣布与"以色列及其 | | | | 支持者"停火。伊朗总统佩泽希齐扬表示，如果以色列不违反停 | | | | 火协议，伊朗就不会违反。他称，伊方已准备在谈判桌上进行对 | | | | 话，争取并实现伊朗人民的合法权利。以色列总理内塔尼亚胡当 | | | 原油 | 天早些时候发表声明称，接受美国总统特朗普提出的停火协议。 | 震荡 | | | API 6 20 423 公布的数据显示，截至 月 日当周，美国原油库存减少 | | ...