光期研究 见微知著 2025 年下半年铁合金策略报告 2025 年 0 6 月 1 光大证券 2020 年 半 年 度 业 绩 E V E R B R I G H T S E C U R I T I E S 铁合金：终端需求偏弱，合金价格反弹承压 p 2 锰硅：关注未来锰矿发运情况 总 结 供应：低利润甚至负利润下锰硅周产量仍在逐渐增加，后续仍有一定增量预期。依据钢联数据，目前北方大区锰硅生产即期利润约- 170元/吨，南方大区锰硅生产即期利润约-500元/吨，在如此幅度亏损下，锰硅产量当周值连续六周环比回升，且还有新增产能投放，随着 后续南方地区丰水期复产意愿增加，生产亏损环比收窄情况下，未来锰硅产量仍有增量预期。 需求：终端需求偏弱影响持续，钢厂锰硅储备意愿不强。吨钢消耗锰硅数量较多螺纹产量创下近年来同期新低，样本钢厂锰硅需求量 当周值同样如此，6月钢厂锰硅库存可用天数环比略有回升，但仍处于近年来同期较低水平，终端需求不足，下游备货意愿不强。 库存：样本企业库存逐渐累积，仓单加有效预报数量同比下降，仍有9万余张。自2月底开始，锰硅样本企业库存便开始逐渐回升，截 止6月末，约22.18万吨，同比增加14.8 ...

光期研究 光期黑色：铁矿石基差及价差监测日报 0 50 100 150 200 01 01 02 03 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 2009-2101 2109-2201 2209-2301 2309-2401 2409-2501 2509-2601 -100 -50 0 50 100 150 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 01 2101-2105 2201-2205 2301-2305 2401-2405 2501-2505 2601-2605 资料来源：Wind，Mysteel, 光大期货研究所 2025 年 6 月 3 0 日 1 光大证券 2020 年 半 年 度 业 绩 E V E R B R I G H T S E C U R I T I E S 1.1 合约价差 | 期货合约 | 今日收盘价 | 上日收盘价 | 变化 | 合约价差 | 今日价差 | 上日价差 | 变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | I05 | 673.0 | 663.0 | 10.0 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The economic data in the first half of 2025 showed a "mixed" pattern. Exports remained resilient, the growth rate of social retail sales increased significantly, but there were "hidden concerns" behind the growth. The decline in real estate investment continued to widen, and it will take time for prices to stabilize [4]. - The intensity of "rush exports" is expected to weaken in the second half of the year. The sales and production of the household appliance industry may cool down, which will affect social retail sales and industrial added value. The decline in real estate investment will continue to expand, and it is necessary to pay attention to the incremental support for urban renewal funds and the introduction of a financing system compatible with the new real - estate development model. It will take time for prices to stabilize [4][5]. Summary According to the Catalog 1. What are the new changes in exports? - **Tariff situation**: The average tariff rate of the United States on China is around 40%, an increase of 29 percentage points compared to before Trump took office. The exemption of some commodities in April 2025 accounted for 24% of China's exports to the United States in 2024 [10]. - **Export data**: In May 2025, China's exports in US dollars increased by 4.8% year - on - year, and imports decreased by 3.4%. In RMB, exports increased by 6.3% year - on - year, and imports decreased by 2.1%. Exports to the US and India decreased significantly, while exports to the UK and the EU increased significantly. The export of labor - intensive goods mostly had negative growth, but the export of clothing and toys rebounded [13]. - **Export delivery value**: The year - on - year decline in export delivery value was obvious. The new export order index moved down from the previous central level, and the kinetic energy of new export orders weakened [18][22]. 2. What policy expectations are there? Consumption policy - **Policy introduction**: In the past year, many consumption - promoting policies have been introduced, indicating that there is potential in the consumption market. However, China's consumption rate is low, and there are also structural problems in consumption [26]. - **Reasons for low consumption rate**: The main factors determining the household consumption rate are consumption ability and marginal consumption propensity. China's income structure shows obvious differentiation, and the imperfect social security system makes residents have a strong preventive savings motivation [33][38]. - **Policy measures**: The "Boosting Consumption Special Action" addresses the problems of consumption ability and consumption tendency by increasing income and reducing burdens. The "Guiding Opinions on Financial Support for Boosting and Expanding Consumption" further expands the scope of financial support for consumption, and the focus of consumption policies may shift to the service consumption field in the future [44][49][52]. Real - estate policy - **City renewal action**: The Politburo meeting in April proposed to intensify the implementation of the urban renewal action, which helps the real - estate investment to stabilize. The key point of follow - up attention is whether there will be incremental support for urban renewal funds [53]. - **Real - estate sales model**: The transition to the spot - sale model means the end of the high - turnover model of real - estate enterprises. The supporting policies, especially the financing policy, are not clear, which affects the funds of real - estate enterprises. It is necessary to pay attention to the introduction of a financing system compatible with the new real - estate development model [5][63]. Infrastructure policy - **Investment situation**: From January to May 2025, infrastructure investment increased by 5.6% year - on - year. If the scale of land reserve special bonds continues to increase this year, the special bond funds invested in traditional infrastructure fields may be less than in 2024 [64]. - **Structural differentiation**: In the context of debt resolution, infrastructure construction with the central government as the construction and expenditure subject may be stronger, while that with local governments as the subject may be weaker. The investment structure differentiation may continue [66]. - **Development space**: Railway investment still has room for development, and canal construction is in full swing. It is estimated that the overall growth rate of infrastructure in 2025 will be around 7.0% [66][70][73]. 3. Can prices stabilize and rebound? - **Price influencing factors**: The impact of currency on prices depends on the supply - demand relationship. Increasing the money supply may lead to an imbalance between supply and demand and make it difficult for prices to rise. The key to boosting prices is to expand effective demand and smooth the supply - demand cycle [76]. - **Policy measures**: The central bank will implement a moderately loose monetary policy, maintain sufficient liquidity, and create a good monetary and financial environment for the reasonable recovery of prices [76]. - **PPI situation**: The tail - wagging factor in the first half of the year continued to drag down the performance of PPI, and it will take time for prices to recover [80].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the third quarter, the alumina ore price will continue to decline. The profit margin of alumina will lead to an oversupply situation, continuously suppressing the market. After the rainy season in Guinea arrives in September, the alumina supply - demand may enter a mismatch stage, and there may be an opportunity for the price to reach a high point. - In the third quarter, the ingot output of electrolytic aluminum will continue to decline. After the end of the export rush, combined with the decline in photovoltaic and automobile production schedules, the supply - demand will converge bidirectionally, forming a game. - It is expected that the aluminum price will first decline and then rise in the second half of the year, with the lowest point from July to August. The low inventory at home and abroad provides strong bottom support, and the possibility of a smooth decline is low. If consumption exceeds expectations, there may be a driving force for further upward movement. With the end of the Sino - US tariff relaxation period and the uncertain Middle East situation, there are many macro - uncertain risk factors, and the amplitude may widen. [4] 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Price and Spread - In the first half of 2025, the alumina price dropped significantly, with the main contract closing at 2,986 yuan/ton as of the 27th, a total decline of 37%. The Shanghai aluminum price fluctuated strongly, with the main contract closing at 20,580 yuan/ton, a total increase of 4%. - In the first half of the year, the alumina spot premium decreased from 986 yuan/ton to 152 yuan/ton. The electrolytic aluminum spot changed from a discount of 30 yuan/ton to a premium of 80 yuan/ton, and the near - far month spread changed from a discount of 15 yuan/ton to a premium of 165 yuan/ton. [6][8][12][15] 3.2 Supply - As of the end of June, the domestic alumina operating capacity will recover to 87.95 million tons, with an operating rate of 83.8%. The output in the first half of the year was 43.683 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.5%. The electrolytic aluminum operating capacity remained stable at 43.91 million tons, with an operating rate of 96.1%. The output in the first half of the year was 21.678 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.5%. The aluminum - water ratio increased to around 76%. - The domestic bauxite production in Shanxi and Henan is gradually recovering. The import volume of Guinea bauxite is gradually increasing as the rainy - season impact fades. [6][29][31] 3.3 Demand - In the first half of the year, the start - up rhythm was affected by tariffs, with an average start - up rate of 60.2%, a year - on - year decrease of 1.98%. From January to May, the downstream comprehensive processing orders exceeded expectations, with the processing PMI average at 51.8, a year - on - year increase of 4.5. It is expected that the decline space of the PMI in June will be significant. Among them, the start - up rates of aluminum plate, strip, foil, and cables decreased significantly year - on - year, while the profiles showed relative resilience. [4][7] 3.4 Inventory - Exchange inventory: In the first half of the year, the alumina inventory increased by 19,500 tons to 31,200 tons; the Shanghai aluminum inventory decreased by 99,000 tons to 94,000 tons; the LME inventory decreased by 258,000 tons to 337,000 tons. - Social inventory: The alumina inventory decreased by 70,000 tons to 25,600 tons; the aluminum ingot inventory decreased by 27,000 tons to 463,000 tons; the aluminum rod inventory increased by 39,500 tons to 142,500 tons. [4][7] 3.5 Future Capacity Projections - Domestic alumina: There are multiple new and replacement projects in various provinces, with a total planned capacity of 11.3 million tons. - Overseas alumina: There are many planned capacity expansion projects in countries such as India and Indonesia, with a total planned capacity of 30.35 million tons. - Domestic electrolytic aluminum: The operating capacity remains high and stable, mainly through the optimization and replacement of existing capacity and the transfer of capacity indicators between regions. The total planned new and replacement capacity in 2025 is 3.32 million tons. - Overseas electrolytic aluminum: The planned restart scale in 2025 is 1.01 million tons, and 205,000 tons have been restarted in the first quarter. [67][68][69] 3.6 Options - Alumina options: Analyzed historical volatility and the put - call ratio of option positions and trading volumes. - Shanghai aluminum options: Also analyzed historical volatility and the put - call ratio of option positions and trading volumes. [91][94][98][102]

1. Index Trends - On June 26, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.22% to close at 3448.45 points, with a trading volume of 603.095 billion yuan; the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 0.48% to close at 10343.48 points, with a trading volume of 980.056 billion yuan [1]. - The CSI 1000 Index fell by 0.45%, with a trading volume of 343.746 billion yuan. The opening price was 6272.44, the closing price was 6247.79, the highest price was 6310.54, and the lowest price was 6244.78 [1]. - The CSI 500 Index fell by 0.41%, with a trading volume of 235.224 billion yuan. The opening price was 5868.29, the closing price was 5838.25, the highest price was 5885.25, and the lowest price was 5835.34 [1]. - The SSE 50 Index fell by 0.34%, with a trading volume of 87.101 billion yuan. The opening price was 2740.23, the closing price was 2738.47, the highest price was 2747.61, and the lowest price was 2734.95 [1]. 2. Impact of Sector Movements on Indexes - The CSI 1000 Index dropped 28.37 points from the previous closing price. Sectors such as automobiles, electronics, and pharmaceuticals significantly dragged down the index [2]. - The CSI 500 Index dropped 24.3 points from the previous closing price. The banking sector significantly boosted the index, while sectors such as power equipment, pharmaceuticals, and electronics significantly dragged it down [2]. - The SSE 300 Index dropped 14.05 points from the previous closing price. Sectors such as banking, communications, and food and beverages significantly boosted the index, while sectors such as power equipment, automobiles, and non - bank finance significantly dragged it down [2]. - The SSE 50 Index dropped 9.26 points from the previous closing price. Sectors such as banking, food and beverages, and public utilities significantly boosted the index, while sectors such as electronics, pharmaceuticals, and non - bank finance significantly dragged it down [2]. 3. Stock Index Futures Basis and Annualized Opening Costs - For IM contracts, IM00 had an average daily basis of - 45.13, IM01 had - 100.83, IM02 had - 162.62, and IM03 had - 331.27 [12]. - For IC contracts, IC00 had an average daily basis of - 35.8, IC01 had - 76.94, IC02 had - 119.69, and IC03 had - 235.25 [12]. - For IF contracts, IF00 had an average daily basis of - 26.42, IF01 had - 38.77, IF02 had - 43.57, and IF03 had - 74.93 [12]. - For IH contracts, IH00 had an average daily basis of - 24.19, IH01 had - 28.38, IH02 had - 27.35, and IH03 had - 26.96 [12]. 4. Stock Index Futures Roll - over Point Differences and Annualized Costs - For IM contracts, data on roll - over point differences and their annualized costs at different time points are provided, such as at 09:45, IM00 - 01 was - 53.1193, IM00 - 02 was - 158.791, etc. [22]. - For IC contracts, data on roll - over point differences and their annualized costs at different time points are provided, such as at 09:45, IC00 - 01 was - 26.1467, IC00 - 02 was - 90.0318, etc. [24]. - For IF contracts, data on roll - over point differences and their annualized costs at different time points are provided, such as at 09:45, IF00 - 01 was - 5.99267, IF00 - 02 was - 13.4098, etc. [29]. - For IH contracts, data on roll - over point differences and their annualized costs at different time points are provided, such as at 09:45, IH00 - 01 was - 1.29644, IH00 - 02 was 1.559889, etc. [28]

有色商品日报 有色商品日报 | | 收至 130 元/吨。佛山 A00 报价回落至 20490 元/吨，对无锡 A00 贴水 140 元/吨，铝棒 | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 加工费包头河南临沂持稳，新疆南昌无锡广东下调 20-50 元/吨，铝杆 1A60 系、6/8 | 系 | | | 加工费持稳，低碳铝杆上调 93 元/吨。氧化铝远月矿石扰动和新增投产压力并存，区间 | | | | 震荡为主。电解铝需求边际走弱与低铸锭量和低仓单挤仓效应间存在博弈，宏观风险 | | | | 计价加码，警惕波动风险。废铝成本支撑仍在，铝合金持续关注滚动做多 AD-AL 价差 | | | | 机会。 | | | | 隔夜 LME 镍涨 0.5%报 15150 美元/吨，沪镍涨 0.75%报 120680 元/吨。库存方面，昨日 | | | | LME 库存减少 144 吨至 204216 吨，国内 SHFE 仓单减少 96 至 21263 吨。升贴水来 | | | | 看，LME0-3 月升贴水维持负数；进口镍升贴水维持 250 元/吨。据铁合金，大厂 6 | 月 | | | 高镍铁第三轮招标价为 ...

农产品日报（2025 年 6 月 27 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 近期，玉米 | | 7 月合约多空主力明显减持，多头主力移仓有限，获利了结加剧行情 | 震荡 | | 波动。期货市场虽显疲软，但现货行情表现仍偏强，主流报价仍维持相对高位， | | | | | 贸易商余货有限。深加工玉米收购价格处于高位。 | | 华北地区玉米价格主流价格 | | | 维持稳定，局部地区窄幅调整。山东深加工企业门前到货量车辆尚可，除了部分 | | | | | 本地贸易商开始出货外，部分地区东北货源继续补充华北市场，深加工企业玉米 | | | | | 玉米 | | 收购价格整体稳定，个别窄幅调整。 销区市场玉米价格整体稳定运行。期货表 | | | 现一般，但产区玉米报价坚挺。销区港口报价暂稳，市场高价接受度有限，饲料 | | | | | 厂现货多提前期订单，刚需补库，小麦替代优势仍较明显。技术上，玉米 | | 7 月持 | | | 仓向 | | 9 月转移的过程中，多头移仓有限，受仓位调整影响玉米 9 月合约上行乏力。 | | | 周四，9 | ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - The investment ratings for various black commodities are as follows: steel (low - level consolidation), iron ore (fluctuation), coking coal (fluctuation with a slightly upward trend), coke (fluctuation with a slightly upward trend), manganese silicon (fluctuation with a slightly upward trend), and ferrosilicon (fluctuation with a slightly upward trend) [1][3] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The steel market is in a situation of weak supply and demand. In the off - season, inventory has not accumulated, and the contradiction in the spot fundamentals is not obvious, but market expectations are cautious. The short - term steel futures market is expected to operate in a low - level consolidation [1]. - For iron ore, with the increase in supply from Australia and Brazil and the change in demand and inventory, the price of the iron ore futures market is expected to fluctuate under the influence of both long and short factors [1]. - In the coking coal market, with the recovery of some coal mines' production and the downstream's replenishment, the inventory of upstream coal mines has decreased, but the downstream's procurement of high - priced resources is still general. The short - term coking coal futures market is expected to operate with a slightly upward trend [1]. - The coke market has seen an improvement in the inventory pressure of coke enterprises and an increase in the steel mills' procurement willingness. The short - term coke futures market is expected to operate with a slightly upward trend [1]. - Regarding manganese silicon, although the news of the reduction in South African manganese ore shipments has boosted market sentiment and strengthened cost support, the fundamental driving force is not strong, and the short - term price is expected to fluctuate with a slightly upward trend [3]. - For ferrosilicon, the overall black sector is strong, and the cost support is expected to increase. However, the fundamental driving force is limited, and the short - term price is expected to fluctuate with a slightly upward trend [3]. Group 3: Summary According to the Catalog 1. Research Views - **Steel**: The closing price of the rebar 2510 contract was 2973 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3 yuan/ton or 0.1% compared with the previous trading day, and the position increased by 19,200 lots. The spot price was basically stable, and the transaction volume increased slightly. This week, the national rebar production increased by 56,600 tons to 2.1784 million tons, the social inventory decreased by 53,500 tons to 3.634 million tons, the factory inventory increased by 32,800 tons to 1.856 million tons, and the apparent demand increased by 7,200 tons to 2.1991 million tons [1]. - **Iron Ore**: The closing price of the iron ore futures main contract i2509 was 705.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 3 yuan/ton or 0.43% compared with the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 330,000 lots and a reduction of 18,000 lots in positions. The port spot prices showed mixed trends. The global iron ore shipments increased slightly. The blast furnace operating rate remained unchanged, and the hot metal production increased by 110 tons to 242,290 tons. The inventory of 47 ports' imported iron ore increased by 466,700 tons to 14.48023 million tons, and the number of ships at the port decreased by 11 to 85. The inventory of imported ore in national steel mills decreased by 880,000 tons to 8.847 million tons [1]. - **Coking Coal**: The closing price of the coking coal 2509 contract was 819.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 15 yuan/ton or 1.86% compared with the previous trading day, and the position increased by 40,404 lots. The price of main coking coal in Shanxi Lvliang area increased by 20 yuan to 883 yuan/ton. The Mongolian coal market was operating strongly, but the market transaction was light. Some coal mines have resumed production, and downstream coke enterprises are actively replenishing their stocks [1]. - **Coke**: The closing price of the coke 2509 contract was 1395.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 8 yuan/ton or 0.58% compared with the previous trading day, and the position increased by 24 lots. The spot price of port coke was stable. After the four - round price cut of coke, some coke enterprises limited production due to losses, but the overall operating situation changed little. The steel mills' replenishment enthusiasm increased slightly, and the inventory pressure of coke enterprises was relieved [1]. - **Manganese Silicon**: On Thursday, the price of manganese silicon futures fluctuated strongly, with the main contract closing at 5676 yuan/ton, a 0.96% increase compared with the previous day, and the position decreased by 2966 lots to 398,500 lots. There was news that South African manganese ore shipments would be reduced. The weekly production of manganese silicon has been rising for 5 consecutive weeks, but the demand has not improved significantly [3]. - **Ferrosilicon**: On Thursday, the price of ferrosilicon futures fluctuated strongly, with the main contract closing at 5384 yuan/ton, a 0.98% increase compared with the previous day, and the position decreased by 4857 lots to 221,400 lots. The overall black sector was strong, and the price of coking coal led the increase. The cost support was expected to increase. The weekly production of ferrosilicon increased by nearly 3% to 97,900 tons, and the demand of sample steel mills increased slightly [3]. 2. Daily Data Monitoring - **Contract Spread**: For rebar, the 10 - 1 month spread was - 5.0, a decrease of 3.0; the 1 - 5 month spread was 0.0, unchanged. For hot - rolled coil, the 10 - 1 month spread was 2.0, an increase of 3.0; the 1 - 5 month spread was 4.0, a decrease of 3.0. For iron ore, the 9 - 1 month spread was 26.0, unchanged; the 1 - 5 month spread was 16.5, unchanged. For coke, the 9 - 1 month spread was - 38.5, an increase of 2.0; the 1 - 5 month spread was - 23.0, an increase of 7.5. For coking coal, the 9 - 1 month spread was - 36.0, an increase of 7.0; the 1 - 5 month spread was - 26.0, a decrease of 1.0. For manganese silicon, the 9 - 1 month spread was - 34.0, a decrease of 4.0; the 1 - 5 month spread was - 18.0, a decrease of 2.0. For ferrosilicon, the 9 - 1 month spread was 30.0, a decrease of 14.0; the 1 - 5 month spread was - 6.0, an increase of 16.0 [4]. - **Basis**: For rebar, the basis of the 10 - contract was 87.0, a decrease of 7.0; the basis of the 01 - contract was 82.0, a decrease of 10.0. For hot - rolled coil, the basis of the 10 - contract was 77.0, a decrease of 5.0; the basis of the 01 - contract was 79.0, a decrease of 2.0. For iron ore, the basis of the 09 - contract was 34.5, a decrease of 3.0; the basis of the 01 - contract was 60.5, a decrease of 3.0. For coke, the basis of the 09 - contract was - 121.4, a decrease of 8.0; the basis of the 01 - contract was - 159.9, a decrease of 6.0. For coking coal, the basis of the 09 - contract was 23.5, a decrease of 15.0; the basis of the 01 - contract was - 12.5, a decrease of 8.0. For manganese silicon, the basis of the 09 - contract was - 156.0, a decrease of 2.0; the basis of the 01 - contract was - 190.0, a decrease of 6.0. For ferrosilicon, the basis of the 09 - contract was - 134.0, an increase of 40.0; the basis of the 01 - contract was - 104.0, an increase of 26.0 [4]. - **Spot Price**: The spot price of rebar in Shanghai was 3060 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton; in Beijing was 3150 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton; in Guangzhou was 3140 yuan/ton, unchanged. The spot price of hot - rolled coil in Shanghai was 3180 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Tianjin was 3150 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Guangzhou was 3280 yuan/ton, an increase of 40 yuan/ton. The spot price of PB powder was 700 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of super - special powder was 595 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1 yuan/ton. The spot price of Rizhao's quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke was 1140 yuan/ton, unchanged. The spot price of medium - sulfur main coking coal in Shanxi was 1035 yuan/ton, unchanged. The spot price of manganese silicon in Ningxia was 5470 yuan/ton, an increase of 70 yuan/ton; in Inner Mongolia was 5520 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan/ton; in Guangxi was 5500 yuan/ton, unchanged. The spot price of ferrosilicon in Ningxia was 5130 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan/ton; in Inner Mongolia was 5150 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan/ton; in Qinghai was 5150 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan/ton [4]. - **Profit and Spread**: The rebar's disk profit was 68.2, a decrease of 11.9; the long - process profit was 99.8, a decrease of 8.2; the short - process profit was - 152.0, an increase of 12.1. The spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar was 130.0, an increase of 8.0; the ratio of rebar to iron ore was 4.2, a decrease of 0.02; the ratio of rebar to coke was 2.1, a decrease of 0.01; the ratio of coking coal to iron ore was 1.7, a decrease of 0.02; the ratio of coke to iron ore was 2.0, unchanged; the spread between manganese silicon and ferrosilicon was - 292.0, a decrease of 12.0 [4]. 3. Chart Analysis - **Main Contract Price**: The report presents the closing price trends of the main contracts of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon from 2020 to 2025 [6][8][10][12][15]. - **Main Contract Basis**: It shows the basis trends of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon [17][18][21][23]. - **Inter - period Contract Spread**: It includes the spread trends of different contracts (such as 10 - 01, 01 - 05) of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon [25][27][29][32][34][35][38]. - **Inter - variety Contract Spread**: It shows the spread trends of different varieties, such as the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar, the ratio of rebar to iron ore, the ratio of rebar to coke, etc. [40][41][42][43]. - **Rebar Profit**: It presents the trends of rebar's disk profit, long - process profit, and short - process profit from 2020 to 2025 [45][46][47][48]. 4. Black Research Team Member Introduction - The black research team members include Qiu Yuecheng, Zhang Xiaojin, Liu Xi, and Zhang Chunjie, each with rich experience and professional qualifications in the black industry [50][51]

碳酸锂日报 碳酸锂日报（2025 年 6 月 27 日） 一、研究观点 点 评 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 EVERBRIGHT FUTURES 1 1. 昨日碳酸锂期货 2509 合约涨 1.15%至 61500 元/吨。现货价格方面，电池级碳酸锂平均价上涨 400 元/吨至 60600 元/吨，工业级碳酸锂平均价上涨 400 元/吨至 59000 元/吨，电池级氢氧化锂（粗颗 粒）下跌 200 元/吨至 58070 元/吨。仓单方面，昨日仓单库存增加 220 吨至 22590 吨。 2. 供应端，周度碳酸锂产量环比增加 305 吨至 18767 吨，其中云母增量相对明显，6 月碳酸锂产量环 比增加超 9%。需求端，周度库存周转天数均有增加，磷酸铁锂相对增加明显，6 月两大正极材料消 耗碳酸锂环比下降 10%。库存端，周度库存环比增加 1936 吨至 136837 吨，其中下游增加 269 吨至 40635 吨，中间环节增加 1260 吨至 37170 吨，上游增加 407 吨至 59032 吨。 3. 当前价格水平基本处在阶段性底部位置，从锂矿价格 600-610 美金来看短期仍有支撑，但是基本面 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - **Cotton**: On Thursday, ICE U.S. cotton rose 0.64% to close at 68.76 cents per pound, and CF509 rose 0.77% to close at 13,720 yuan per ton. The position of the main contract increased by 24,084 lots to 584,200 lots. The cotton arrival price in Xinjiang was 14,957 yuan per ton, up 125 yuan from the previous day, and the China Cotton Price Index for Grade 3128B was 15,020 yuan per ton, up 82 yuan from the previous day. In the international market, the macro - level remains the focus, with the U.S. dollar index oscillating weakly, providing some support for U.S. cotton prices, but the fundamental driving force is limited. In the domestic market, the center of the Zhengzhou cotton futures price has oscillated upward, and the position of the main contract has continued to increase. Fundamentally, low inventory is a supporting factor, and the weather in Xinjiang in mid - June had some disturbances, supporting cotton prices. In the short term, the macro - sentiment has heated up, and the fundamental support has strengthened. The center of the Zhengzhou cotton price may continue to move up slightly, but the upside space is expected to be relatively limited due to the expected high yield of new cotton. Attention should be paid to macro and weather changes [1]. - **Sugar**: From August 1, 2025, the ethanol blending ratio in gasoline will be increased from the current 27% to 30%, and the biodiesel blending ratio in diesel will be increased from the current 14% to 15%. The spot quotes of Guangxi sugar - making groups are 6,030 - 6,110 yuan per ton, up 20 - 40 yuan per ton; those of Yunnan sugar - making groups are 5,810 - 5,850 yuan per ton, up 20 yuan per ton. Regarding raw sugar, the increase in the Brazilian ethanol blending ratio is attracting attention, which can be seen as a way to digest the increased sugarcane production and support the bottom price, but it does not have a strong boosting effect under the high - yield environment with limited conversion volume. In the domestic market, raw sugar is moving sideways, the domestic spot quotes are rising, the group inventory pressure is not large, and there is some inventory in the trading sector. In the short term, it will continue the small - scale rebound driven by basis repair [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Data Monitoring - **Cotton**: The 9 - 1 contract spread is 55, up 35; the main basis is 1,300, up 7. The Xinjiang spot price is 14,957 yuan per ton, up 125 yuan, and the national spot price is 15,020 yuan per ton, up 82 yuan [2]. - **Sugar**: The 9 - 1 contract spread is 184, up 18; the main basis is 310, up 2. The Nanning spot price is 6,080 yuan per ton, up 10 yuan, and the Liuzhou spot price is 6,100 yuan per ton, up 35 yuan [2]. 3.2 Market Information - **Cotton**: On June 26, the number of cotton futures warehouse receipts was 10,334, down 45 from the previous trading day, and the effective forecast was 295. The cotton arrival prices in different regions were: 14,957 yuan per ton in Xinjiang, 15,050 yuan per ton in Henan, 15,023 yuan per ton in Shandong, and 15,268 yuan per ton in Zhejiang. The yarn comprehensive load was 53.1, down 0.2 from the previous day; the yarn comprehensive inventory was 27.7, up 0.3 from the previous day; the short - fiber cloth comprehensive load was 49.1, unchanged from the previous day; the short - fiber cloth comprehensive inventory was 33.3, unchanged from the previous day [3]. - **Sugar**: On June 26, the Nanning spot price of sugar was 6,080 yuan per ton, up 10 yuan from the previous day, and the Liuzhou spot price was 6,100 yuan per ton, up 35 yuan from the previous day. The number of sugar futures warehouse receipts was 24,302, down 310 from the previous trading day, and the effective forecast was 0 [3][4]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - The report provides multiple charts for cotton and sugar, including the closing price of the main contract, the basis of the main contract, the contract spread, the warehouse receipts and effective forecasts, etc., with data sources from Wind and the Guangda Futures Research Institute [6][14][16]