软商品日报 光大期货软商品日报（2025 年 12 月 5 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周四，ICE 美棉下跌 0.65%，报收 64.04 美分/磅，CF601 环比上涨 0.4%，报收 13790 元/吨，主力合约持仓环比下降 9091 手至 51.31 万手，棉花 3128B 现货价格指数 | | | | 14585 元/吨，较前一日上涨 15 元/吨。国内市场方面，宏观层面仍有扰动，数据 | | | | 显示美国就业仍有韧性，美联储降息预期小幅波动，美元指数震荡走强，美棉价 | | | | 格承压下行。基本面方面，近期美棉出口仍然承压，拖累美棉价格。此外关注将 | | | 棉花 | 于下周发布的 USDA12 月报。国内市场方面，郑棉期价低开，尾盘跌幅收窄。我 | 震荡 | | | 们认为宏观有利好预期、棉花需求相对稳定、年度供需压力不大是近期行情主要 | | | | 驱动因素。但需要看到的是，当前多空因素均有，供应压力仍存，若价格持续上 | | | | 行，上方还有套保压力。展望未来，短期郑棉或仍偏震荡运行为主，随着时间推 | ...

碳酸锂日报 碳酸锂日报（2025 年 12 月 5 日） 一、研究观点 点 评 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 EVERBRIGHT FUTURES 1 1. 昨日碳酸锂期货 2605 合约跌 1.26%至 93700 元/吨。现货价格方面，电池级碳酸锂平均价跌 350 元/ 吨至 94000 元/吨，工业级碳酸锂平均价跌 350 元/吨至 91550 元/吨，电池级氢氧化锂（粗颗粒）跌 100 元/吨至 82480 元/吨。仓单方面，昨日仓单库存增加 770 吨至 10422 吨。 2. 供应端，周度产量环比增加 74 吨至 21939 吨，其中锂辉石提锂环比增加 120 吨至 13484 吨，锂云母 产量环比增加 55 吨至 3076 吨，盐湖提锂环比减少 145 吨至 3090 吨，回收料提锂环比增加 44 吨至 2289 吨；据 SMM 数据，12 月预计供应环比增加 3%至 9.8 万吨。需求端，周度三元材料产量环比 减少 564 吨至 18697 吨，库存环比减少 519 吨至 18842 吨；磷酸铁锂产量环比减少 233 吨至 95480 吨，库存环比减少 660 吨至 103681 吨；据 ...

光期研究 图表1：05-09合约价差（单位：元/吨） 图表2：01-05合约价差（单位：元/吨） p 2 -100 -50 0 50 100 150 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 01 2101-2105 2201-2205 2301-2305 2401-2405 2501-2505 2601-2605 -50 0 50 100 150 200 09 10 10 10 11 11 12 12 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 2105-2109 2205-2209 2305-2309 2405-2409 2505-2509 2605-2609 资料来源：Wind，Mysteel, 光大期货研究所 光期黑色：铁矿石基差及价差监测日报 2025 年 1 2 月 5 日 1 光大证券 2020 年 半 年 度 业 绩 E V E R B R I G H T S E C U R I T I E S 1.1 合约价差 | 期货合约 | 今日收盘价 | 上日收盘价 | 变化 | 合约价差 | 今日价差 | 上日价差 | 变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | - ...

工业硅日报 工业硅&多晶硅日报（2025 年 12 月 5 日） 一、研究观点 点评 4 日工业硅震荡偏弱，主力 2601 收于 8910 元/吨，日内跌幅 0.5%，持仓减 仓 907 手至 19.3 万手。百川工业硅现货参考价 9745 元/吨，较上一交易日 持稳。最低交割品#421 价格涨至 9000 元/吨，现货升水扩至 90 元/吨。多 晶硅震荡偏强，主力 2601 收于 56910 元/吨，日内涨幅 0.05%，持仓减仓 11085 手至 11.7 万手；多晶硅 N 型复投硅料价格涨至 52350 元/吨，最低交 割品硅料价格涨至 52350 元/吨，现货对主力贴水收至 4615 元/吨。供给延 续南减北增节奏，难有明显减负，但需求有较大降幅空间，工业硅重心有 成本支撑、无向上驱动。光伏集中式项目收尾，海外需求同步下滑，组件 端大版型订单大幅缩水，产业链需求负反馈效应加剧，硅料厂坚持减产不 降价策略。随着交易所针对多晶硅提保限仓，近月挤仓情绪有所淡化，但 仓单不足情况下正套力量仍在，近月无深跌空间。建议投资者持续跟踪持 仓和仓单情况、谨慎为上。 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 EVERBRIGH ...

光大期货能化商品日报 光大期货能化商品日报（2025 年 12 月 5 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周四油价震荡反弹，其中 WTI 1 月合约收盘上涨 0.72 美元至 59.67 | | | | 美元/桶，涨幅 1.22%。布伦特 2 月合约收盘上涨 0.59 美元至 63.26 | | | | 美元/桶，涨幅 0.94%。SC2601 以 456.5 元/桶收盘，上涨 5.2 元/ | | | | 桶，涨幅为 1.15%。由于严重风暴和近期的无人机袭击扰乱了装载 | | | | 作业，俄罗斯黑海港口 Novorossiysk 港和里海管道联盟 CPC 终端 | | | | 11 月的石油出口量较原计划减少约 100 万吨。行业人士称， | | | | Novorossiysk 港 11 月乌拉尔原油、西伯利亚轻质原油和 KEBCO | | | | 原油的装船计划量约为 320 万吨，但实际出口仅达到约 250 万吨。 | | | 原油 | 市场调查结果显示，尽管 OPEC 同意提高 11 月份的原油产量， | 震荡 | | | 但由 ...

请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 EVERBRIGHT FUTURES 1 光大期货金融期货日报（2025 年 12 月 05 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 昨日，A 股市场震荡持平，TMT 板块收涨，消费板块回调。Wind 全 A 收涨 | | | | 0.01%，成交额 1.56 万亿元，中证 1000 指数上涨 0.01%，中证 500 指数上涨 | | | | 0.24%，沪深 300 指数上涨 0.34%，上证 50 指数上涨 0.38%。随着 6 月以来的 | | | | 流动性行情告一段落，市场重新聚焦基本面逻辑，目前以 AI 为首的新质生 | | | | 产力题材普遍对未来三年的增长水平存在乐观预期，尤其是科技领域的上游 | | | | 硬件制造环节，供需错配下涨价预期明显，中期盈利能力可观。但是，对应 | | | 股指 | 题材自 6 月以来涨幅均较大，临近年底缺乏进一步事件性催化，自 11 月逐 | 震荡 | | | 渐进入震荡行情。另一方面，以消费和周期题材为首的传统经济领域仍然处 | | | | 在震荡复苏的过程中 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - Overnight, both domestic and international copper prices soared to record highs, with the loss of domestic refined copper spot imports widening. The weakening US labor market and the improvement of the service industry index, along with the upcoming Central Economic Work Conference in China, are the main influencing factors. The increase in LME and Comex copper inventories, along with the decrease in SHFE copper warehouse receipts, indicate tight LME inventories and structural issues in global visible inventories, which may lead to a continued strong performance in the market [1]. - Aluminum prices showed a mixed trend, with aluminum alloy weakening and aluminum and alumina showing different trends. The expected environmental production restrictions on northern alumina plants did not occur, and new production and restart rhythms emerged, leading to a significant correction in the market. The decline in aluminum prices has boosted downstream sentiment, and the lagging demand has gradually been realized in the short term. However, as the new energy vehicle purchase tax rush ends and the State Grid order matching concludes, the support for aluminum prices is strong, but it is difficult to sustain the demand surge, and the possibility of reaching a new high this year is low [1][2]. - Nickel prices also showed a mixed trend, with LME nickel rising and Shanghai nickel falling slightly. The inventory situation is complex, with LME nickel inventory decreasing and SHFE nickel warehouse receipts increasing. The nickel - iron - stainless steel industry chain is facing challenges, with the raw material support weakening and the stainless - steel inventory increasing. In the new energy industry chain, the raw material supply is tight, but the production of ternary precursors is expected to decline in December. It may be advisable to consider bottom - fishing and waiting for positive factors to materialize, but be vigilant against macro - level disturbances and overseas industrial policy adjustments [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Copper**: Overnight, both domestic and international copper prices reached new historical highs. The US labor market showed signs of weakness, with a decrease of 32,000 in the ADP employment number in November 2025, the largest decline since March 2023. However, the US ISM service industry PMI index rose to 52.6 in November, the highest in nine months. Domestically, attention is focused on the upcoming Central Economic Work Conference. LME copper inventory increased by 350 tons to 162,150 tons, Comex copper inventory increased by 2,127 tons to 393,979 tons, and SHFE copper warehouse receipts decreased by 1,599 tons to 28,969 tons. The large - scale conversion of LME copper registered warehouse receipts to cancelled warehouse receipts is seen as a sign of impending large - scale提货, indicating tight LME inventories and structural issues in global visible inventories [1]. - **Aluminum**: Aluminum alloy trended weakly, with the overnight main contract AD2601 closing at 20,970 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.64%. Aluminum trended strongly, with the overnight AL2601 closing at 22,010 yuan/ton, a rise of 0.53%. Alumina trended weakly, with the overnight AO2601 closing at 2,632 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.53%. The expected environmental production restrictions on northern alumina plants did not occur, and new production and restart rhythms emerged, leading to a correction in the market. The decline in aluminum prices has led to an improvement in downstream sentiment, and the lagging demand has been gradually realized in the short term. However, the support for aluminum prices is strong, but it is difficult to sustain the demand surge, and the possibility of reaching a new high this year is low [1][2]. - **Nickel**: LME nickel rose 0.92% to 14,875 US dollars/ton, and Shanghai nickel fell 0.02% to 117,590 yuan/ton. LME nickel inventory decreased by 84 tons to 252,990 tons, and SHFE nickel warehouse receipts increased by 244 tons to 32,595 tons. The nickel - iron - stainless steel industry chain is facing challenges, with the raw material support weakening and the stainless - steel inventory increasing. In the new energy industry chain, the raw material supply is tight, but the production of ternary precursors is expected to decline in December. It may be advisable to consider bottom - fishing and waiting for positive factors to materialize, but be vigilant against macro - level disturbances and overseas industrial policy adjustments [3]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Copper**: On December 3, 2025, the price of flat - copper was 88,925 yuan/ton, up 340 yuan from the previous day. The price of 1 bright scrap copper in Guangdong remained unchanged at 79,800 yuan/ton. LME copper inventory remained unchanged at 161,800 tons, SHFE copper warehouse receipts decreased by 1,599 tons to 28,969 tons, and the total social inventory (including bonded areas) decreased by 0.4 million tons to 26.2 million tons [4]. - **Aluminum**: On December 3, 2025, the Wuxi quotation was 21,790 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan from the previous day, and the Nanhai quotation was 21,690 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan from the previous day. LME aluminum inventory remained unchanged at 535,900 tons, SHFE aluminum warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 66,833 tons, and the total social inventory of electrolytic aluminum remained unchanged at 59.6 million tons [5]. - **Nickel**: On December 3, 2025, the price of Jinchuan nickel plate was 122,400 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan from the previous day. LME nickel inventory remained unchanged at 253,074 tons, SHFE nickel warehouse receipts increased by 244 tons to 32,595 tons, and the total social inventory of nickel increased by 3,090 tons to 55,349 tons [5]. - **Zinc**: On December 3, 2025, the main settlement price was 22,740 yuan/ton, up 0.2% from the previous day. LME zinc inventory remained unchanged at 52,375 tons, and the social inventory decreased by 0.28 million tons to 13.76 million tons [7]. - **Tin**: On December 3, 2025, the main settlement price was 309,340 yuan/ton, up 1.2% from the previous day. LME tin inventory remained unchanged at 3,145 tons, and SHFE tin inventory increased by 130 tons to 6,359 tons [7]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Spot Premium**: The report provides spot premium charts for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025, showing the historical trends of spot premiums for these metals [9][12][14]. - **SHFE Near - Far Month Spread**: The report provides near - far month spread charts for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2020 - 2025, showing the historical trends of near - far month spreads for these metals [15][18][21]. - **LME Inventory**: The report provides LME inventory charts for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025, showing the historical trends of LME inventories for these metals [23][25][27]. - **SHFE Inventory**: The report provides SHFE inventory charts for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025, showing the historical trends of SHFE inventories for these metals [29][31][33]. - **Social Inventory**: The report provides social inventory charts for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series stainless steel from 2019 - 2025, showing the historical trends of social inventories for these items [35][37][39]. - **Smelting Profit**: The report provides charts for copper concentrate index, crude copper processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless - steel 304 smelting profit margin from 2019 - 2025, showing the historical trends of smelting - related indicators [42][44][46]. 3.4 Team Introduction - The research team consists of Zhan Dapeng, Wang Heng, and Zhu Xi. Zhan Dapeng is the director of non - ferrous metal research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with more than a decade of commodity research experience. Wang Heng focuses on aluminum - silicon research, and Zhu Xi focuses on lithium - nickel research. Both have rich experience in tracking the new energy industry chain and providing in - depth reports [49][50].

碳酸锂日报 碳酸锂日报（2025 年 12 月 4 日） 一、研究观点 点 评 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 EVERBRIGHT FUTURES 1 1. 昨日碳酸锂期货主力合约 2605 合约跌 2.82%至 93660 元/吨。现货价格方面，电池级碳酸锂平均价 下跌 50 元/吨至 94350 元/吨，工业级碳酸锂平均价下跌 50 元/吨至 91900 元/吨，电池级氢氧化锂 （粗颗粒）维持 82580 元/吨。仓单方面，昨日仓单库存增加 660 吨至 9652 吨。 2. 供应端，周度产量环比减少 265 吨至 21865 吨，其中锂辉石提锂环比增加 20 吨至 13364 吨，锂云母 产量环比增加 50 吨至 3021 吨，盐湖提锂环比减少 400 吨至 3225 吨，回收料提锂环比增加 65 吨至 2245 吨；据 SMM 数据，12 月预计供应环比增加 3%至 9.8 万吨。需求端，周度三元材料产量环比 增加 259 吨至 19261 吨，库存环比增加 71 吨至 19361 吨；磷酸铁锂产量环比增加 4690 吨至 95713 吨，库存环比增加 1757 吨至 104341 吨；据 SMM ...

光期研究 光期黑色：铁矿石基差及价差监测日报 2025 年 1 2 月 4 日 1 光大证券 2020 年 半 年 度 业 绩 E V E R B R I G H T S E C U R I T I E S 1.1 合约价差 | 期货合约 | 今日收盘价 | 上日收盘价 | 变化 | 合约价差 | 今日价差 | 上日价差 | 变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | I05 | 777.0 | 775.5 | 1.5 | I05-I09 | 24.0 | 24.0 | 0.0 | | I09 | 753.0 | 751.5 | 1.5 | I09-I01 | -46.5 | -49.0 | 2.5 | | I01 | 799.5 | 800.5 | -1.0 | I01-I05 | 22.5 | 25.0 | -2.5 | 图表1：05-09合约价差（单位：元/吨） 图表2：01-05合约价差（单位：元/吨） p 2 2025-03 2025-05 2025-07 2025-09 2025-11 图表3：基差标的：巴西粉矿（单位：元/吨） ...

3 日工业硅震荡偏弱，主力 2601 收于 8920 元/吨，日内跌幅 1.6%，持仓增 仓 6584 手至 19.4 万手。百川工业硅现货参考价 9745 元/吨，较上一交易日 持稳。最低交割品#421 价格涨至 9000 元/吨，现货贴水转至升水 40 元/ 吨。多晶硅震荡偏强，主力 2601 收于 57430 元/吨，日内涨幅 1.89%，持仓 减仓 1558 手至 12.77 万手；多晶硅 N 型复投硅料价格涨至 52350 元/吨， 最低交割品硅料价格涨至 52350 元/吨，现货对主力贴水扩至 7390 元/吨。 供给延续南减北增节奏，难有明显减负，但需求有较大降幅空间，工业硅 重心有成本支撑、无向上驱动。光伏集中式项目收尾，海外需求同步下 滑，组件端大版型订单大幅缩水，产业链需求负反馈效应加剧，硅料厂坚 持减产不降价策略。随着交易所针对多晶硅提保限仓，近月挤仓情绪有所 淡化，但仓单不足情况下正套力量仍在，近月无深跌空间。建议投资者持 续跟踪持仓和仓单情况、谨慎为上。 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 EVERBRIGHT FUTURES 1 工业硅日报 工业硅&多晶硅日报（2025 年 12 月 ...