Group 1: Index Trends - On January 21st, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.08% to close at 4116.94 points with a trading volume of 1180.185 billion yuan; the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.7% to close at 14255.12 points with a trading volume of 1420.414 billion yuan [1] - The CSI 1000 Index rose 0.79% with a trading volume of 564.721 billion yuan, opening at 8138.68, closing at 8247.68, with a high of 8289.13 and a low of 8136.92 [1] - The CSI 500 Index rose 1.12% with a trading volume of 517.592 billion yuan, opening at 8196.56, closing at 8340.11, with a high of 8351.45 and a low of 8196.56 [1] - The SSE 50 Index fell 0.11% with a trading volume of 198.826 billion yuan, opening at 3073.77, closing at 3067.18, with a high of 3097.66 and a low of 3060.65 [1] - The CSI 300 Index rose 0.09% with a trading volume of 665.331 billion yuan, opening at 4714.55, closing at 4723.07, with a high of 4758.28 and a low of 4714.24 [1] Group 2: Impact of Sector Movements on Indexes - The CSI 1000 rose 64.93 points from the previous close, and sectors such as electronics, non - ferrous metals, and machinery had a significant upward pull on the index [2] - The CSI 500 rose 92.31 points from the previous close, and sectors such as electronics, non - ferrous metals, and machinery had a significant upward pull on the index [2] - The CSI 300 rose 4.19 points from the previous close. Sectors like electronics, non - ferrous metals, and computers had an upward pull, while non - bank finance, food and beverage, and banking had a downward pull [2] - The SSE 50 fell 3.47 points from the previous close. Sectors like electronics, non - ferrous metals, and computers had an upward pull, while non - bank finance, food and beverage, and banking had a downward pull [2] Group 3: Stock Index Futures Basis and Annualized Opening Costs - IM00 average daily basis was -3.44, IM01 was -36.68, IM02 was -217.4, IM03 was -384.82 [12] - IC00 average daily basis was 15.66, IC01 was 11.14, IC02 was -91.92, IC03 was -206.25 [12] - IF00 average daily basis was 0.78, IF01 was -1.9, IF02 was -40.52, IF03 was -97.61 [12] - IH00 average daily basis was 2.73, IH01 was 5.93, IH02 was 1.82, IH03 was -30.48 [12]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - The A-share market continued to rise on January 21, 2026, with the Wind All A index up 0.57% and a trading volume of 2.62 trillion yuan. The CSI 1000 index rose 0.79%, the CSI 500 index rose 1.12%, the SSE 50 index fell 0.11%, and the SSE 300 index rose 0.09%. The recent economic regulation policies have provided fundamental support for the index. The central bank's interest rate cut on structural monetary policy tools and the adjustment of the minimum margin ratio for margin trading have affected market sentiment. The stock market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, but the risk of a significant decline in the index is relatively low in the medium to long term [1]. - On January 21, 2026, the 30-year Treasury bond futures contract rose 0.75%, the 10-year contract rose 0.03%, the 5-year contract rose 0.01%, and the 2-year contract fell 0.01%. The central bank conducted 363.5 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net injection of 122.7 billion yuan. The bond market is expected to continue to fluctuate under the current environment of loose funds, stable economy, rising prices, and low short-term expectations of a comprehensive interest rate cut. The yield curve is expected to remain steep [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Research Views 3.1.1 Stock Index Futures - The A-share market continued to rise, with different performance among various indices. The recent economic regulation policies and the central bank's interest rate cut on structural monetary policy tools have provided support for the market. However, the adjustment of the minimum margin ratio for margin trading has increased market volatility. The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, and investors are advised to be cautious [1]. 3.1.2 Treasury Bond Futures - The Treasury bond futures market showed mixed performance on January 21, 2026. The central bank's reverse repurchase operations and the current market environment have affected the bond market. The bond market is expected to continue to fluctuate, and the yield curve is expected to remain steep [3]. 3.2 Daily Price Changes - The prices of stock index futures and stock indices showed different trends on January 21, 2026. The prices of some Treasury bond futures contracts also changed. The specific price changes are as follows: - Stock Index Futures: IH fell 0.06%, IF rose 0.30%, IC rose 1.48%, and IM rose 1.36% [4]. - Stock Indices: The SSE 50 index fell 0.11%, the SSE 300 index rose 0.09%, the CSI 500 index rose 1.12%, and the CSI 1000 index rose 0.79% [4]. - Treasury Bond Futures: TS fell 0.01%, TF rose 0.00%, T rose 0.02%, and TL rose 0.68% [4]. 3.3 Market News - The Minister of Housing and Urban - Rural Development, Ni Hong, stated that the government will continue to implement city - specific policies to promote the stable operation of the real estate market. The government will support the reasonable financing needs of real estate enterprises and the rigid and improved housing needs of residents [5]. 3.4 Chart Analysis 3.4.1 Stock Index Futures - The report provides charts showing the historical trends of stock index futures contracts (IH, IF, IM, IC), their basis, and other indicators, which can help investors analyze the market trends of stock index futures [7][8][10]. 3.4.2 Treasury Bond Futures - The report includes charts of Treasury bond futures contracts, bond yields, basis, inter - period spreads, cross - variety spreads, and capital interest rates, which can assist in the analysis of the Treasury bond futures market [14][17][18]. 3.4.3 Exchange Rates - The report presents charts of exchange rates, including the central parity rates of the US dollar, euro against the RMB, forward exchange rates, and the exchange rates between major currencies such as the US dollar, euro, pound, and yen, which can help investors understand the trends of the foreign exchange market [22][24][26].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The prices of various energy and chemical products are expected to fluctuate. Crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, polyester, rubber, methanol, polyolefins, and PVC are all forecasted to experience an oscillatory trend. Geopolitical factors, supply - demand dynamics, and production issues are the main drivers of these price movements [1][2][4]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Wednesday, the price center of oil prices moved slightly higher. WTI's new March contract closed up $0.26 to $60.62 per barrel, a 0.43% increase; Brent's March contract closed up $0.32 to $65.24 per barrel, a 0.49% increase; SC2603 closed at 446.5 yuan per barrel, up 5.4 yuan per barrel, a 1.2% increase. Production at two major oilfields in Kazakhstan was suspended, and API data showed an increase in US crude and product inventories. Trump's decision on tariffs and ongoing geopolitical games will keep oil prices oscillating [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: On Wednesday, the main fuel oil contracts on the SHFE closed higher. Low - sulfur fuel oil supply is sufficient in January, while downstream demand provides some support. High - sulfur fuel oil may face more supply from Venezuela. The absolute prices of FU and LU will likely follow oil price fluctuations, with FU having higher volatility [2]. - **Asphalt**: On Wednesday, the main asphalt contract on the SHFE closed up 0.45% at 3157 yuan per ton. Social and refinery inventory rates increased, and the plant operating rate rose. Market concerns about raw materials eased slightly, but the Iranian situation still affects prices. The asphalt market is in a game between "weak demand reality" and "strong cost expectations" [2]. - **Polyester**: TA605 and EG2605 closed higher on the previous day, while PX futures closed lower. PX supply is shrinking due to plant maintenance, and TA is expected to follow raw material prices. EG is expected to trade in a low - level oscillation due to ample supply and falling downstream demand [4]. - **Rubber**: On Wednesday, the main rubber contracts on the SHFE closed higher. Overseas production is nearing the end of the peak season, tire companies are restocking, and inventories are seasonally increasing. Rubber prices are expected to oscillate widely in the short term [4]. - **Methanol**: On Wednesday, spot prices in different regions were reported. Domestic supply is at a high - level oscillation, and Iranian supply remains low. Zhejiang Xingxing's shutdown weakened MTO operating loads. Methanol is expected to maintain a bottom - level oscillation [6]. - **Polyolefins**: On Wednesday, prices and production margins of different polyolefins were reported. In January, there were some temporary shutdowns in upstream plants, and demand recovered in the early part of the month but will weaken as the Spring Festival approaches. Polyolefins are expected to trade at the bottom [6]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC)**: On Wednesday, PVC prices in different regions showed different trends. Supply is at a high - level oscillation, domestic demand is slowing, and the 05 contract has a large premium. PVC is expected to maintain a bottom - level oscillation [7]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides data on the basis, basis rate, price changes, and historical quantiles of various energy and chemical products, including crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas, asphalt, high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil, methanol, urea, and many others [8]. 3.3 Market News - Trump decided not to implement the planned tariffs on eight European countries after reaching a framework agreement on Greenland with NATO Secretary - General Mark Rutte. Production at two major oilfields in Kazakhstan was suspended due to power distribution and equipment issues, and the suspension may last for seven to ten days [11]. 3.4 Chart Analysis 3.4.1 Main Contract Prices - The report presents line charts showing the historical closing prices of main contracts for various energy and chemical products from 2022 - 2026, including crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, LPG, PTA, ethylene glycol, etc. [13][15][17]. 3.4.2 Main Contract Basis - Line charts display the historical basis of main contracts for different products, such as crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, etc. [29][30][35]. 3.4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads - Charts show the historical spreads between different contracts (e.g., 01 - 05, 05 - 09) for products like fuel oil, asphalt, PTA, ethylene glycol, etc. [42][47][50]. 3.4.4 Inter - product Spreads - Charts illustrate the historical spreads between different products, such as crude oil's internal - external spreads, B - W spreads, fuel oil's high - low sulfur spreads, etc. [58][60][62]. 3.4.5 Production Profits - Charts present the historical production profits or processing fees for products like LLDPE, PP, PTA, and the cash flow of ethylene - based ethylene glycol [66][68]. 3.5 Team Introduction - The research team includes the deputy director of the research institute Zhong Meiyan, the energy and chemical research director Du Bingqin, the natural rubber/polyester analyst Di Yilin, and the methanol/propylene/pure benzene PE/PP/PVC analyst Peng Haibo, with their respective backgrounds and achievements introduced [71][72][73]. 3.6 Contact Information - The company's address is at Unit 703, 6th Floor, No. 729 Yanggao South Road, China (Shanghai) Pilot Free Trade Zone. The company's phone number is 021 - 80212222, fax is 021 - 80212200, customer service hotline is 400 - 700 - 7979, and the postal code is 200127 [76].

光大期货煤化工商品日报（2026 年 1 月 21 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 尿素 | 周二尿素期货价格弱势震荡，主力05合约收盘价1775元/吨，跌幅0.34%。现货市场 | | | | 价格多数稳定，个 地区回落。昨日山东、河南地区市场价格均稳定在1750元/吨 | | | | 。尿素供应窄幅波动，昨日行业日产量20.32万吨，日环比提升0.04万吨，后续仍需 | | | | 关注短停装置和气头企业复产节奏差异。需求多以刚需跟进为主，价格下调地区成 | | | | 交有所好转。昨日部分地区产销率达到100%及以上，但低端成交仍仅有10%~60% | | | | 右，区域间分化较为明显。春节前需求仍有冬储肥、淡储肥及部分春耕肥前置需求 | 区间 震荡 | | | 预期，但释放力度取决于中下游对价格的接受程度，故后续现货成交情况仍需跟踪 | | | | 。整体来看，尿素基本面暂无明显变化，市场缺乏新增驱动。期货盘面连续数日下 | | | | 调后或逐步止跌、进入区间震荡状态。后续随着春节临近，尿素供应回升、市场成 | | | | 交活跃度 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Yesterday, the lithium carbonate futures contract 2605 reached the daily limit at 160,500 yuan/ton. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 1,500 yuan/ton to 152,500 yuan/ton, the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate rose by 1,500 yuan/ton to 149,000 yuan/ton, and the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) increased by 3,000 yuan/ton to 147,000 yuan/ton. The warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 17 tons to 27,681 tons [3]. - On the supply side, the weekly output increased by 115 tons to 22,535 tons. The output from spodumene increased by 35 tons to 13,959 tons, from lepidolite increased by 20 tons to 2,956 tons, from salt lake increased by 40 tons to 3,185 tons, and from recycled materials increased by 20 tons to 2,435 tons. The lithium carbonate output in January 2026 is expected to decrease by 1.2% month - on - month to 97,970 tons. On the demand side, the output of ternary materials in January 2026 is expected to decrease by 5% month - on - month to 78,180 tons; the output of lithium iron phosphate is expected to decrease by 10% month - on - month to 363,400 tons; the output of ternary power batteries in January 2026 is expected to decrease by 6.15% month - on - month to 28.7 GWh, the output of lithium iron phosphate power batteries is expected to decrease by 9.77% month - on - month to 90.01 GWh, and the output of lithium iron phosphate energy storage is expected to increase by 0.99% month - on - month to 63.15 GWh. On the inventory side, the weekly social inventory of lithium carbonate increased by 337 tons to 109,942 tons, with the downstream inventory decreasing by 2,458 tons to 36,540 tons, the inventory in other links increasing by 2,080 tons to 55,020 tons, and the upstream inventory increasing by 715 tons to 18,382 tons [3]. - There are renewed disturbances in the resource end, and there is still an expectation of inventory reduction in the first quarter. In the absence of a clear negative feedback in demand, the main strategy is to go long on dips. However, it is necessary to be vigilant about the amplification of market volatility and position disturbances, and pay attention to supply - side disturbances (overseas and in Jiangxi) and right - hand opportunities [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Data Monitoring - The closing price of the main futures contract increased from 147,260 yuan/ton on January 19, 2026, to 160,500 yuan/ton on January 20, 2026, with an increase of 13,240 yuan/ton. The closing price of the continuous contract increased from 145,600 yuan/ton to 158,940 yuan/ton, with an increase of 13,340 yuan/ton. The price of spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) increased from 1,950 US dollars/ton to 1,985 US dollars/ton, with an increase of 35 US dollars/ton [5]. - The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5% battery - grade/domestic) increased from 151,000 yuan/ton to 152,500 yuan/ton, with an increase of 1,500 yuan/ton; the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate (99.2% industrial zero - grade/domestic) increased from 147,500 yuan/ton to 149,000 yuan/ton, with an increase of 1,500 yuan/ton; the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles/domestic) increased from 144,000 yuan/ton to 147,000 yuan/ton, with an increase of 3,000 yuan/ton [5]. - The price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (micronized) increased from 148,350 yuan/ton to 151,850 yuan/ton, with an increase of 3,500 yuan/ton; the price of industrial - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles/domestic) increased from 136,900 yuan/ton to 139,900 yuan/ton, with an increase of 3,000 yuan/ton [5]. - The price of lithium hexafluorophosphate decreased from 155,000 yuan/ton to 151,500 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 3,500 yuan/ton [5]. - The price of some ternary precursors remained unchanged, while the price of ternary precursor 523 (single - crystal/consumer - type) decreased by 100 yuan/ton. The prices of some ternary materials and lithium iron phosphate increased to varying degrees [5]. 3.2 Chart Analysis - **Ore Prices**: The report provides historical price charts of spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF), lepidolite (1.5% - 2.0%, 2.0% - 2.5%), and lithiophilite (6% - 7%, 7% - 8%) from 2024 to 2026 [6][9]. - **Lithium and Lithium Salt Prices**: It includes historical price charts of metallic lithium, battery - grade lithium carbonate average price, industrial - grade lithium carbonate average price, battery - grade lithium hydroxide price, industrial - grade lithium hydroxide price, and lithium hexafluorophosphate price from 2024 to 2026 [12][14][17]. - **Price Spreads**: There are charts showing the price spreads between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade lithium carbonate and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, CIF Japan - South Korea battery - grade lithium hydroxide and SMM battery - grade lithium hydroxide, etc., from 2024 to 2026 [19][20][21]. - **Precursors and Cathode Materials**: The report presents historical price charts of ternary precursors, ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, manganese acid lithium, and cobalt acid lithium from 2024 to 2026 [25][27][29]. - **Lithium Battery Prices**: It includes historical price charts of 523 square ternary cells, square lithium iron phosphate cells, cobalt acid lithium cells, and square lithium iron phosphate batteries from 2024 to 2026 [31][35]. - **Inventory**: There are charts showing the downstream inventory, smelter inventory, and inventory in other links of lithium carbonate from May 29, 2025, to January 15, 2026 [37][39]. - **Production Costs**: The report provides a chart of the production cost of lithium carbonate from 2024 to 2026, including the cash production profit of purchasing ternary pole piece black powder, lithium iron phosphate pole piece black powder, lithium mica concentrate, and spodumene concentrate [42][43].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report provides daily research and analysis on various black commodities, including steel, iron ore, coking coal, coke, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon. It predicts that the short - term trends of these commodities will be mainly in a state of narrow - range fluctuations or oscillations. For example, steel is expected to have a narrow - range oscillation, while iron ore, coking coal, coke, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon are expected to oscillate [1][3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Research Views - **Steel**: The rebar futures price dropped, with the rebar 2605 contract closing at 3111 yuan/ton, a decrease of 29 yuan/ton or 0.92% from the previous trading day, and the position increased by 13,300 lots. Spot prices also fell slightly, and the trading volume declined. Due to a major explosion at a large steel mill's plate plant and seasonal maintenance of domestic steel mills approaching the Spring Festival, the daily average hot metal output of 247 steel mills decreased by 14,900 tons to 2.2801 million tons last week, and there is a downward trend in the future, which will put pressure on the raw material supply - demand. The decline in iron ore and coking coal prices in recent days has suppressed the overall trend of the black series. However, steel mill production cuts and maintenance will relieve the supply pressure in the steel market to some extent. It is expected that the short - term rebar futures price will mainly operate in a narrow - range oscillation [1]. - **Iron Ore**: The main contract i2605 of iron ore futures fell to 789.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.5 yuan/ton or 0.57% from the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 360,000 lots and a reduction of 30,000 lots in positions. The prices of mainstream port spot varieties also declined. On the supply side, the shipments from Australia and Brazil continued to decline, while those from other countries increased, and the global shipments decreased. On the demand side, the hot metal output decreased by 14,900 tons to 2.2801 million tons. The inventories at 47 ports and steel mills continued to accumulate. Since the previous ore price has risen to a relatively high level, there is a lack of fundamental support for further upward movement. With the combination of long and short factors, the ore price is expected to show an oscillating trend [1]. - **Coking Coal**: The coking coal futures price dropped, with the coking coal 2605 contract closing at 1124 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50.5 yuan/ton or 4.3%, and the position increased by 29,998 lots. In the spot market, the price of lean clean coal in Changzhi, Shanxi increased, while the prices of Mongolian No. 5 raw coal and No. 3 clean coal at the Ganqimao Port decreased. On the supply side, the production of coal mines in the production areas is stable, the supply of coking coal is growing steadily, and the overall shipment of coal mines has improved with a continuous decline in inventory. On the demand side, the coking and steel enterprises are in the stage of replenishing inventory, but the procurement rhythm has slowed down slightly. Although there is still an expectation of subsequent replenishment, the procurement is still cautious, and they are resistant to some high - priced coal resources. It is expected that the short - term coking coal futures price will operate in an oscillating manner [1]. - **Coke**: The coke futures price dropped, with the coke 2605 contract closing at 1673.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 47.5 yuan/ton or 2.76%, and the position increased by 792 lots. In the spot market, the quoted price of port coke decreased. On the supply side, the current operation of coking enterprises is good, the coke output is relatively stable, and they are mainly focused on active shipments. Traders have reduced their purchases considering market risks, and the procurement of downstream steel mills has slowed down, so the coke supply - demand structure is expected to be loose. On the demand side, affected by the seasonal off - season, the overall demand in the steel market is poor, and the daily average hot metal output of blast furnaces is still expected to decline. After the previous replenishment, the inventories in steel mills are mostly at a reasonable level, and the procurement of coke is mainly based on rigid demand. It is expected that the short - term coke futures price will operate in an oscillating manner [1]. - **Manganese Silicon**: On Tuesday, the manganese silicon futures price oscillated weakly, with the main contract closing at 5760 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.89% compared to the previous day, and the position of the main contract decreased by 13,668 lots to 215,200 lots. The market prices of manganese silicon in various regions decreased. Recently, the overall trend of the black sector has been weak, and the prices of coking coal and coke have led the decline, causing the center of the manganese silicon futures price to move down. In terms of fundamentals, the price of manganese ore has been slightly adjusted down. On the supply - demand side, the weekly output of manganese silicon has been continuously decreasing, and the furnace - opening rate in Guangxi last week decreased by 5.4 percentage points to 27%. On the demand side, the steel tender price provides some support for the demand of manganese silicon, but the actual consumption at the terminal is at a relatively low level in the same period in recent years. In terms of inventory, the inventory of 63 sample enterprises has declined from a high level but is still relatively high year - on - year. Overall, the fundamental support is limited, and the market sentiment is weak. It is expected that the short - term manganese silicon will follow the black sector in a weak oscillating manner [1][3]. - **Ferrosilicon**: On Tuesday, the ferrosilicon futures price oscillated, with the main contract closing at 5552 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.07% compared to the previous day, and the position of the main contract increased by 15,954 lots to 245,600 lots. The aggregated prices of ferrosilicon in various regions decreased in some areas. Recently, the overall trend of the black sector has been weak, but the alloy has been relatively stable, and the center of the ferrosilicon futures price has basically remained flat compared to the previous day, with the position of the main contract increasing for three consecutive days. From a fundamental perspective, according to customs data, China's ferrosilicon exports in December increased by 7.6% month - on - month and 0.85% year - on - year, with an annual cumulative export of 377,400 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8.15%. On the supply side, the overall output of ferrosilicon has been relatively stable recently, and the weekly output is at the lowest level in the same period in the past five years. On the demand side, during the steel tender period, attention should be paid to the procurement and stocking needs of steel mills, but the actual terminal consumption is limited. On the cost side, the raw material prices have remained stable recently, and the calculated production cost of ferrosilicon by the ferro - alloy online has remained the same week - on - week. In terms of inventory, the inventories of 60 ferrosilicon sample enterprises and the available days of ferrosilicon inventory in steel mills in December have both decreased month - on - month. Overall, the cost side is relatively stable, the marginal changes in the supply - demand level are limited, and the sentiment is affected by the overall trend of the black sector. It is expected that the short - term ferrosilicon will operate in a weak oscillating manner, and attention should be paid to changes in cost and production start - up [3]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the latest data and their环比 changes of contract spreads, basis, and spot prices for various black commodities, including steel (rebar and hot - rolled coil), iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon. It also includes data on profits and spreads between different varieties, such as rebar disk profit, long - process profit, short - process profit, volume - rebar spread, rebar - ore ratio, rebar - coke ratio, coking coal - coke ratio, and double - silicon spread [4]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **3.3.1 Main Contract Prices**: The report presents the closing price charts of the main contracts of various black commodities from 2021 to 2026, including rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon [6][7][8][10][11][13]. - **3.3.2 Main Contract Basis**: The report shows the basis charts of the main contracts of various black commodities, including rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon [15][16][20][22]. - **3.3.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: The report provides the inter - period contract spread charts of various black commodities, including rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon [24][25][26][30][32][34][36]. - **3.3.4 Inter - variety Contract Spreads**: The report shows the inter - variety contract spread charts of various black commodities, including the volume - rebar spread, rebar - ore ratio, rebar - coke ratio, coking coal - coke ratio, and double - silicon spread [37][38][39][40]. - **3.3.5 Rebar Profits**: The report presents the profit charts of rebar, including the disk profit of the main rebar contract, long - process calculated profit, and short - process calculated profit [42][46]. 3.4 Black Research Team Members Introduction - The report introduces the members of the black research team, including Qiu Yuecheng, Zhang Xiaojin, Liu Xi, and Zhang Chunjie, along with their positions, work experience, and professional qualifications [48][49].

工业硅日报 工业硅&多晶硅日报（2026 年 1 月 21 日） 一、研究观点 点评 20 日工业硅震荡偏弱，主力 2605 收于 8745/吨，日内跌幅 0.4%，持仓减 仓 10615 手至 22.5 万手。百川工业硅现货参考价 9628 元/吨，较上一交 易日持稳。最低交割品价格持稳在 8850 元/吨，现货升水扩至 105 元/ 吨。多晶硅震荡偏强，主力 2605 收于 50700 元/吨，日内涨幅 0.91%，持 仓减仓 939 手至 43632 手；百川多晶硅 N 型复投硅料价格涨至 55250 元/ 吨，最低交割品硅料价格 55250 元/吨，现货升水扩至 4550 元/吨。西南 除自备电厂和一体化供应以外全面停炉，新疆检修结束出现复产，中和 供给端减量。下游减产导致工业硅整体上行受挫。多晶硅供需失衡压力 叠加反垄断监管施压，市场交易逻辑由消息炒作转会基本面视角，硅料 强势挺价底气难以延续。近期出口退税取消引发海外订单激增、大幅缓 解组件排产压力，因硅片环节原料积压，增量未能传导至硅料环节，晶 硅端减产规模将进一步扩大。预计短期盘面大涨无力、平稳运行，现货 报价或逐步失去支撑。 请务必阅读正文之 ...

光期研究 光期黑色：铁矿石基差及价差监测日报 2026 年 1 月 2 1 日 1 光大证券 2020 年 半 年 度 业 绩 E V E R B R I G H T S E C U R I T I E S 1.1 合约价差 | 期货合约 | 今日收盘价 | 上日收盘价 | 变化 | 合约价差 | 今日价差 | 上日价差 | 变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | I05 | 789.5 | 794.0 | -4.5 | I05-I09 | 18.0 | 17.5 | 0.5 | | I09 | 771.5 | 776.5 | -5.0 | I09-I01 | 14.5 | 14.0 | 0.5 | | I01 | 757.0 | 762.5 | -5.5 | I01-I05 | -32.5 | -31.5 | -1.0 | 图表1：05-09合约价差（单位：元/吨） 图表2：09-01合约价差（单位：元/吨） -50 0 50 100 150 200 09 10 10 10 11 11 12 12 01 01 02 02 03 03 ...

软商品日报 光大期货软商品日报（2026 年 1 月 21 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 周二，ICE 美棉下跌 0.48%，报收 64.36 美分/磅，郑棉主力合约环比下降 0.27%， | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 报收 14525 元/吨，主力合约持仓环比下降 12927 手至 78.81 万手，棉花 3128B 现 货价格指数 15390 元/吨，较前一日下降 50 元/吨。国际市场方面，近期海外宏观 扰动不断，美欧之间关税或再起摩擦，市场担忧情绪升温，贵金属价格上涨，美 | | | 棉花 | 元指数走弱，美棉期价震荡运行。国内市场方面，郑棉连续多日减仓下行，关于 | 震荡 | | | 2026 年新疆地区种植面积调整的预期交易逐渐降温，市场关注重心回归基本面。 | | | | 2025 年整体来看，终端服装零售同比维持正增长，但增幅低于社零。出口方面， | | | | 受到一定影响，服装出口同比转负。进口方面，12 月国内棉花、棉纱进口量当月 | | | | 值均创下年内新高。整体来看，棉花供应充裕，企业年前大幅补库备货动力有限， | | | | 郑棉上行驱 ...

农产品日报（2026 年 1 月 21 日） 一、研究观点 | 点评 | | 品种 | | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 周二，玉米主力 | | 玉米 | 2603 合约减仓调整，玉米期价先跌后涨，日线收带长下影线的 | 震荡偏弱 | | 小阳线。受玉米近月合约期价下跌影响，玉米远期 | | | 2605、2607 合约跟随调整。 | | | 目前东北玉米价格暂以稳定为主，有存货贸易商随行出货，基层目前也以随行出 | | | | | | 货为主，低价售粮意向暂显一般。销区市场玉米价格稳中偏强运行，受北方降雪 | | | | | | 影响，贸易商到货成本支撑下报价坚挺。下游目前备货谨慎为主，维持安全头寸 | | | | | | 滚动补库，市场未出现集中补库现象。技术上，玉米市场的近期表现主要受到周 | | | | | | 边商品及情绪的影响。玉米 | | | 5 月合约期价先弱后强，产区潮粮收购价格上涨，5 | | | 月合约期价下行，基差走强。 | | | | | | 周二，CBOT 大豆小幅下跌，结束此前三连涨，投资者对美欧紧张关系保持警惕， 同时巴西产量创纪 ...