1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The prices of most black commodities are expected to run strongly or fluctuate strongly in the short term due to positive policy news, improved market sentiment, and changes in supply - demand fundamentals [1] 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Steel**: The rebar futures price rose, with the 2510 contract closing at 3307 yuan/ton, up 83 yuan/ton or 2.57%. Spot prices also increased significantly, and the trading volume remained high. Policy news boosted market sentiment, and the coal price limit also had a positive impact. The short - term rebar futures is expected to run strongly [1] - **Iron Ore**: The main contract i2509 price rose to 823 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan/ton or 1.7%. Port spot prices were strong. The global iron ore shipment increased, and the iron water output was at a relatively high level, with port inventory decreasing. The ore price is expected to continue the trend of fluctuating strongly [1] - **Coking Coal**: The coking coal 2509 contract closed at 1048.5 yuan/ton, up 42.5 yuan/ton or 4.22%. Spot prices increased. On the supply side, over - capacity mines would be rectified. On the demand side, the steel price rebounded, and the demand for coking coal improved. The short - term coking coal futures is expected to run strongly [1] - **Coke**: The coke 2509 contract closed at 1697.5 yuan/ton, up 59.5 yuan/ton or 5.9%. Spot prices rose. The second round of price increase was implemented, and the cost of coking coal increased. The demand improved due to the rebound of steel prices. The short - term coke futures is expected to run strongly [1] - **Silicomanganese**: The silicomanganese futures price fluctuated strongly, with the main contract closing at 6012 yuan/ton, up 1.76%. Spot prices increased in some regions. The market sentiment was the main driving force, but the supply was increasing and the demand was decreasing. The cost support was enhanced. It is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [1] - **Ferrosilicon**: The ferrosilicon futures price fluctuated strongly, with the main contract closing at 5874 yuan/ton, up 3.74%. Spot prices increased in some regions. The market sentiment drove the price up, but the demand was at a low level. The cost was relatively stable. It is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [1] 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Contract Spread**: The report shows the latest values and changes of contract spreads (such as 10 - 1 month, 1 - 5 month) for various black commodities including rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, etc. [4] - **Basis**: It also presents the latest values and changes of basis for different contracts of various commodities [4] - **Spot Price**: The latest spot prices and their changes in different regions for each commodity are provided [4] - **Profit and Spread**: Information on profits (such as rebar disk profit, long - process profit, short - process profit) and cross - commodity spreads (such as coil - rebar spread, rebar - ore ratio, etc.) is given [4] 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Main Contract Price**: Charts show the closing prices of main contracts of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, etc. from 2020 to 2025 [5][7][9][11][14] - **Main Contract Basis**: Charts display the basis of main contracts of various commodities over different time periods [17][18][20][22] - **Inter - period Contract Spread**: Charts present the spreads of inter - period contracts (such as 10 - 01, 01 - 05) for different commodities [25][27][29][32][34][35][37] - **Cross - commodity Contract Spread**: Charts show cross - commodity spreads such as coil - rebar spread, rebar - ore ratio, etc. [40][42][44] - **Rebar Profit**: Charts illustrate the disk profit, long - process profit, and short - process profit of rebar from 2020 to 2025 [45][49] 3.4 Black Research Team Member Introduction - The report introduces the members of the black research team, including their positions, work experience, and relevant qualifications [51][52]

Group 1: Investment Ratings - Urea: Bullish [1] - Soda Ash: Upward [1] - Glass: Upward [1] Group 2: Core Views - Urea: On Tuesday, the urea futures price fluctuated widely with a late rise, and the spot market was mostly stable with partial rebounds. The supply level dropped, and the follow - up sentiment of the mid - and downstream slowed. The short - term sentiment is positive, but the rally is limited due to weak fundamentals and price - stabilizing policies. It is recommended to expect a firm and volatile trend [1]. - Soda Ash: On Tuesday, the soda ash futures had a strong performance, and the spot market was mostly stable with price rebounds in the northwest. The industry's operating rate decreased slightly, and there was low - price restocking in the demand side, but high inventory remained. The futures market may stay strong in the short - term, but the supply - demand imbalance persists, so the rally should be viewed with caution [1]. - Glass: On Tuesday, the glass futures price trended upward, and the spot market strengthened. The daily melting volume increased, and the demand sentiment improved. The futures market is bullish in the short - term, but the sustainability needs more drivers [1]. Group 3: Market Information Urea - On July 22, the urea futures warehouse receipts on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange were 2,523, unchanged from the previous day, with 0 valid forecasts. The daily output was 188,900 tons, a decrease of 3,300 tons from the previous day and an increase of 6,300 tons from the same period last year. The industry's operating rate was 81.59%, 1.19 percentage points lower than last year. The small - particle urea spot prices in Shandong and Henan increased by 10 yuan/ton, while those in other regions were stable [4]. Soda Ash and Glass - On July 22, the soda ash futures warehouse receipts on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange were 236, an increase of 236 from the previous day, with 1,295 valid forecasts; the glass futures warehouse receipts were 0, unchanged. The soda ash spot prices in the northwest increased by 40 yuan/ton. The industry's operating rate was 81.03%, down from 82.23% the previous day. The average price of the float glass market was 1,194 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 4 yuan/ton, and the daily output was 159,000 tons, a daily increase of 60 tons [6][7]. Group 4: Chart Analysis - The report presents multiple charts including those for the closing prices, basis, trading volume, and price differences of urea, soda ash, and glass futures, as well as the spot price trends and the price differences between related futures contracts [9][10][11][12][13][14][16][17][18][19][20] Group 5: Research Team Introduction - The research team includes Zhang Xiaojin, Zhang Linglu, and Sun Chengzhen, who are responsible for different commodity research and have rich experience and many industry honors [23]

Group 1: Investment Ratings - The investment rating for stock indices is "volatile" [1] - The investment rating for treasury bonds is "volatile" [2] Group 2: Core Views - The A-share market continued to rise, with the Wind All A up 0.61% and a turnover of 1.93 trillion yuan. The central government is stimulating economic recovery through investment, which may bring incremental funds in the short term, but the long-term effect remains to be seen. Overseas, the Fed's rate cut expectation has slowed, and the domestic small-cap index has been less boosted. The index's future depends on the domestic economic recovery process, and it is expected to remain volatile [1] - Treasury bond futures closed lower, with the central bank conducting reverse repurchase operations and a net withdrawal of funds. The economy remains resilient, reducing the short-term expectation of interest rate cuts, and treasury bonds are expected to run bearishly in the short term [2] Group 3: Summary by Directory Research Views - **Stock Indices**: The A-share market rose, with various indices showing different increases. The construction of the Yarlung Zangbo River hydropower project drove up the infrastructure sector. Economic and financial data showed mixed results, with investment continuing to decline and M1 performing well. The central government's economic stimulus measures may bring short-term incremental funds, but the long-term effect is uncertain. Overseas factors also affect the market, and the index is expected to remain volatile [1] - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bond futures closed lower, and the central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations with a net withdrawal of funds. Economic data indicates resilience, reducing the short-term expectation of interest rate cuts, and treasury bonds are expected to run bearishly in the short term [2] Daily Price Changes - **Stock Index Futures**: IH, IF, IC, and IM all increased, with IC having the highest increase of 1.22% [3] - **Stock Indices**: The Shanghai Composite 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 all increased, with the CSI 500 having the highest increase of 0.85% [3] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: TS, TF, T, and TL showed different changes, with TL remaining unchanged [3] - **Treasury Bond Yields**: The yields of 2-year, 5-year, 10-year, and 30-year treasury bonds all increased [3] Market News - The S&P 500 hit a new high, while the Nasdaq was dragged down by the tech sector. Gold returned to $3400, and domestic coking coal futures continued to soar [4] - Trump announced trade agreements with Japan and the Philippines, with tariff rates of 15% and 19% respectively [5][6] - Trump's stance on "firing Powell" softened, and he and Bessent pressured the Fed to cut interest rates [6] - The domestic commodity market had a collective rally, with six varieties hitting the daily limit [7] Chart Analysis - **Stock Index Futures**: The report includes charts of the trends and basis of IH, IF, IC, and IM [8][9][10] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The report includes charts of the trends, basis, inter - period spreads, cross - variety spreads, and funding rates of treasury bond futures [15][16][18] - **Exchange Rates**: The report includes charts of various exchange rates, such as the US dollar against the Chinese yuan, the euro against the Chinese yuan, and cross - currency exchange rates [22][23][27]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Oil prices continued to decline for the third consecutive trading day due to the weakening market risk - preference sentiment. The current crude oil market lacks clear drivers and will continue to fluctuate. EU - US trade negotiations and OPEC and IEA's demand forecasts are attracting attention [1][9]. - The fuel oil market is under pressure. The market structure of low - sulfur fuel oil has weakened further, and the high - sulfur fuel oil market continues to face supply pressure. It is advisable to hold the spread short - position for low - sulfur fuel oil [1][3]. - The asphalt market has limited supply increments. The single - sided driver is not obvious in the short term, and it mainly fluctuates narrowly following the cost - end crude oil. Short - term long positions can be considered after the oil price stabilizes [3]. - The polyester market is affected by the restart of some devices. The terminal is in a bottom - building and oscillating state. The EG price is supported in the short term, and the TA price will fluctuate strongly following the cost [3][4]. - The rubber market has increased in recent days due to raw material support and the macro - environment. However, investors should be cautious about chasing high prices [4]. - The methanol market has an increase in inventory. The current market - priced coal supply has decreased, and the methanol price will fluctuate strongly [4]. - The polyolefin market will gradually transition to a state of strong supply and demand. If the cost end does not decline significantly, the downside space is limited [6]. - The PVC market has a slight improvement in enterprise operations, but demand has not improved significantly. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines due to excessive short - term market news [6]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Tuesday, the WTI August contract closed down $0.99 to $66.21 per barrel, a 1.47% decline; the Brent September contract closed down $0.62 to $68.59 per barrel, a 0.90% decline; SC2509 closed at 503.5 yuan per barrel, down 2.8 yuan per barrel, a 0.55% decline. API data showed that as of the week ending July 18, US crude oil inventories decreased by 577,000 barrels, Cushing crude oil inventories increased by 314,000 barrels, gasoline inventories decreased by 1.228 million barrels, and distillate inventories increased by 3.48 million barrels. The market is waiting for the EU - US trade negotiation results, and OPEC and IEA's demand forecasts for 2025 are attracting attention. The market lacks clear drivers, and the oil price will fluctuate [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: On Tuesday, the main fuel oil contract FU2509 on the SHFE closed up 0.1% at 2,924 yuan per ton; the low - sulfur fuel oil main contract LU2510 closed down 0.8% at 3,581 yuan per ton. The market structure of low - sulfur fuel oil has weakened, and the high - sulfur fuel oil market is under pressure. The expected arrival volume from Europe in July will increase by 300,000 - 400,000 tons, and Singapore is expected to receive about 2.1 - 2.2 million tons of Western low - sulfur fuel oil in July, higher than 1.7 - 1.8 million tons in June. The Asian high - sulfur fuel oil market is facing supply pressure from stable Middle - East shipments. The LU - FU spread has narrowed, and it is advisable to hold the spread short - position [1][3]. - **Asphalt**: On Tuesday, the main asphalt contract BU2509 on the SHFE closed down 1.42% at 3,657 yuan per ton. In August, northern demand will be further released, and some refineries' production enthusiasm has increased. However, refineries without crude oil quotas have no production plans due to negative profits, and some refineries in Shandong will be under maintenance in mid - August. The supply increment is limited. The demand is affected by rainfall, but there is supportive potential after the rainy season. The single - sided driver is not obvious in the short term, and it mainly fluctuates following the cost - end crude oil [3]. - **Polyester**: TA509 closed at 4,794 yuan per ton on the previous day, up 0.29%; the spot offer was at a premium of 3 yuan per ton to the 09 contract. EG2509 closed at 4,447 yuan per ton, up 0.84%, with the basis decreasing by 10 yuan per ton to 60 yuan per ton, and the spot price was 4,490 yuan per ton. The PX futures main contract 509 closed at 6,886 yuan per ton, up 0.35%. A 200,000 - ton/year synthetic - gas - to - ethylene - glycol plant in Shanxi has restarted and produced products, and a 300,000 - ton/year plant in Inner Mongolia is restarting and is expected to produce products around the end of July. The terminal is in a bottom - building and oscillating state, and the EG price is supported in the short term, while the TA price will fluctuate strongly following the cost [3][4]. - **Rubber**: On Tuesday, the main Shanghai rubber contract RU2509 rose 165 yuan per ton to 15,060 yuan per ton, the NR main contract rose 105 yuan per ton to 12,855 yuan per ton, and the butadiene rubber BR main contract rose 105 yuan per ton to 12,100 yuan per ton. Typhoon Webb has shifted northward, but it is still rainy in Hainan, Yunnan, and Vietnam. The output is blocked, and processing plants have difficulty in collecting latex. The Thai raw material price has increased, and the demand is stable. The price has increased recently, but investors should be cautious when chasing high prices [4]. - **Methanol**: The Taicang spot price was 2,412 yuan per ton on Tuesday, the Inner Mongolia northern - line price was 1,990 yuan per ton, the CFR China price was $270 - 274 per ton, and the CFR Southeast Asia price was $328 - 333 per ton. The Iranian device load has recovered to the high point, and the arrival volume has increased. The downstream profit has recovered, and the subsequent start - up is expected to remain stable, with inventory continuing to increase. The current market - priced coal supply has decreased, and the methanol price will fluctuate strongly [4]. - **Polyolefins**: On Tuesday, the mainstream price of East China drawn wire was 7,050 - 7,150 yuan per ton. The profit of oil - based PP was - 400.04 yuan per ton, the profit of coal - based PP production was 741.07 yuan per ton, and the profit of methanol - based PP production was - 702 yuan per ton. For PE, the price of HDPE film was 7,924 yuan per ton, the price of LDPE film was 9,403 yuan per ton, and the price of LLDPE film was 7,355 yuan per ton. The polyolefin market will gradually transition to a state of strong supply and demand, and if the cost end does not decline significantly, the downside space is limited [6]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC)**: On Tuesday, the East China PVC market offer rose slightly, with the calcium - carbide - based type 5 material at 5,000 - 5,100 yuan per ton, and the ethylene - based material at 4,950 - 5,300 yuan per ton. The North China PVC market price was adjusted narrowly, and the South China PVC market price was firm. The enterprise operation has recovered, but the demand has not improved significantly. The basis and monthly spread have widened recently, and the arbitrage space has gradually opened. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines due to excessive short - term market news [6]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring Data on the basis of various energy - chemical products on July 23, 2025 are provided, including spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, and the latest basis rate quantiles in historical data for multiple products such as crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas, asphalt, etc. [7] 3.3 Market News - The US is in urgent trade negotiations with its partners. The crude oil price has declined for three consecutive trading days due to the weakening market risk - preference sentiment. The EU - US trade negotiation deadline is August 1. If no agreement is reached, the US will impose a 30% tariff on most EU export products [9]. - The Canadian Prime Minister has lowered the expectation of reaching a trade agreement with the US in the next 10 days. The US has threatened to impose a 35% tariff on Canadian goods not covered by the US - Mexico - Canada Agreement if no agreement is reached by August 1 [9]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: Charts show the closing prices of main contracts of various energy - chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, LPG, PTA, ethylene glycol, etc. [11][13][15] - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: Charts show the basis of main contracts of various energy - chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, ethylene glycol, etc. [24][26][30] - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: Charts show the spreads of inter - period contracts of various energy - chemical products, including fuel oil, asphalt, PTA, ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, natural rubber, etc. [38][40][43] - **4.4 Inter - variety Spreads**: Charts show the spreads and ratios between different varieties of energy - chemical products, including crude oil internal - external spreads, B - W spreads of crude oil, high - low sulfur spreads of fuel oil, fuel oil/asphalt ratios, etc. [55][60][61] - **4.5 Production Profits**: Charts show the production profits of various energy - chemical products, including ethylene - based ethylene glycol cash flow, PP production profit, LLDPE production profit, etc. [64][65][67]

光期研究 光期黑色：铁矿石基差及价差监测日报 2025 年 7 月 2 2 日 1 光大证券 2020 年 半 年 度 业 绩 E V E R B R I G H T S E C U R I T I E S 1.1 合约价差 | 期货合约 | 今日收盘价 | 上日收盘价 | 变化 | 合约价差 | 今日价差 | 上日价差 | 变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | I05 | 755.0 | 730.0 | 25.0 | I05-I09 | -54.0 | -55.0 | 1.0 | | I09 | 809.0 | 785.0 | 24.0 | I09-I01 | 32.5 | 32.0 | 0.5 | | I01 | 776.5 | 753.0 | 23.5 | I01-I05 | 21.5 | 23.0 | -1.5 | 图表1：09-01合约价差（单位：元/吨） 图表2：01-05合约价差（单位：元/吨） 0 50 100 150 200 01 01 02 03 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 0 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - On July 21, industrial silicon fluctuated strongly, with the main 2509 contract closing at 9,260 yuan/ton, an intraday increase of 4.99%, and the position decreased by 3,956 lots to 383,000 lots. The reference price of Baichuan industrial silicon spot was 9,297 yuan/ton, up 186 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The price of the lowest deliverable 421 grade rose to 8,900 yuan/ton, and the spot discount widened to 185 yuan/ton. Polysilicon fluctuated higher, with the main 2509 contract closing at 45,850 yuan/ton, an intraday increase of 3.36%, and the position increased by 16,518 lots to 172,000 lots. The price of N-type polysilicon refeed material rose to 45,550 yuan/ton, and the price of the lowest deliverable silicon material rose to 45,500 yuan/ton, with the spot discount widening to 385 yuan/ton [2]. - Large industrial silicon manufacturers have not yet resumed production. The increase in the southwest is less than the decrease in the northwest. After the cancellation of the electricity price subsidy in Xinjiang, the cost support strengthening and the resumption of production expectation have entered a game, returning to the range - oscillation mode, with the upper limit being the position where the capacity enters the market after the profit in the southwest is repaired. The photovoltaic industry chain is boosted by the anti - involution policy, but there is no actual improvement in supply and demand. The bulls trade on the confidence that if the spot price does not fall, the futures price will not fall, and the overall support of the disk is relatively strong. After both industrial silicon and polysilicon rose to high levels, large - scale hedging positions entered the market, and there were cases where polysilicon long positions left the market with profits. The margin of polysilicon has been increased, further increasing the difficulty of chasing the rise. Attention should be paid to the PS/SI ratio and the policy implementation rhythm to see if there will be a new wave of upward pull after the callback [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Data Monitoring - **Industrial Silicon**: The futures settlement price of the main contract increased from 8,820 yuan/ton on July 18 to 9,110 yuan/ton on July 21, an increase of 290 yuan/ton. The prices of various grades of industrial silicon spot also generally increased, with the current lowest deliverable price rising from 8,750 yuan/ton to 8,900 yuan/ton, and the spot discount widened from - 90 yuan/ton to - 185 yuan/ton [4]. - **Polysilicon**: The futures settlement price of the main contract increased from 43,850 yuan/ton on July 18 to 45,660 yuan/ton on July 21, an increase of 1,810 yuan/ton. The price of N - type granular silicon material increased by 9,000 yuan/ton, and the price of P - type polysilicon dense material and refeed material also increased by 3,500 yuan/ton. The current lowest deliverable price rose from 43,500 yuan/ton to 45,500 yuan/ton, and the spot discount widened from - 350 yuan/ton to - 385 yuan/ton [4]. - **Organic Silicon**: The spot prices of DMC in the East China market, raw rubber, 107 glue, and dimethyl silicone oil all increased, with increases of 800 yuan/ton, 700 yuan/ton, 500 yuan/ton, and 2,500 yuan/ton respectively [4]. - **Inventory**: The industrial silicon warehouse receipts decreased by 252, the industrial silicon social inventory decreased by 1,400 tons, the polysilicon warehouse receipts remained unchanged, and the polysilicon social inventory decreased by 0.5 tons [4]. 3.2 Chart Analysis 3.2.1 Industrial Silicon and Cost - end Prices - Charts show the prices of different grades of industrial silicon, grade price differences, regional price differences, electricity prices, silica prices, and refined coal prices [5][7][10] 3.2.2 Downstream Product Prices - Charts display the prices of DMC, organic silicon products, polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components [13][15][17] 3.2.3 Inventory - Charts present the industrial silicon futures inventory, factory inventory, weekly industry inventory, weekly inventory changes, DMC weekly inventory, and polysilicon weekly inventory [20][23] 3.2.4 Cost - profit - Charts show the average cost and profit levels of main production areas, industrial silicon weekly cost - profit, aluminum alloy processing industry profit, DMC cost - profit, and polysilicon cost - profit [26][28][35] 3.3 Team Introduction - The non - ferrous metals team of Everbright Futures Research Institute includes Zhan Dapeng, Wang Heng, and Zhu Xi, who have rich experience in non - ferrous metal research and new energy industry chain tracking [37][38]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The lithium carbonate futures 2509 contract rose 2.53% to 71,280 yuan/ton yesterday. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 1,350 yuan/ton to 68,000 yuan/ton, the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased by 1,300 yuan/ton to 66,350 yuan/ton, and the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) rose by 600 yuan/ton to 63,379 yuan/ton. The warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 270 tons to 9,969 tons [3]. - Jiangte Motor's wholly - owned subsidiary, Yichun Yinli New Energy Co., Ltd., will shut down for equipment maintenance on July 25, 2025, with an expected maintenance time of 26 days. Zimbabwe's state - owned mining enterprise Kuvimba Mining House plans to break ground on a concentrator with an annual processing capacity of 600,000 tons of lithium concentrate at its Sandawana mine in the third quarter of this year, with a total investment of $270 million and is expected to be put into operation in early 2027 [3]. - In terms of supply, the output in July is expected to increase by 3.9% month - on - month to 81,150 tons, and the weekly output increased by 302 tons to 19,115 tons. Among them, lithium extraction from spodumene increased by 330 tons to 9,324 tons, lithium extraction from lepidolite increased by 25 tons to 5,100 tons, lithium extraction from salt lakes increased by 17 tons to 3,282 tons, and lithium extraction from recycled materials decreased by 70 tons to 1,409 tons. In June 2025, China's lithium carbonate import volume was 17,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 16.3% and a year - on - year decrease of 9.6%. In terms of demand, the production schedule in July increased slightly month - on - month, and the consumption of lithium carbonate by the two major main materials increased by 3% month - on - month to about 80,800 tons. In terms of inventory, the weekly inventory increased by 1,827 tons to 142,620 tons, among which the downstream inventory increased by 506 tons to 41,271 tons, the intermediate link inventory increased by 1,880 tons to 43,310 tons, and the upstream inventory decreased by 559 tons to 58,039 tons [3]. - The market sentiment continues to improve, the news is constantly fermenting, the warehouse receipts continue to decrease, and the price of lithium ore continues to rise. In the short term, it may still stimulate the price to rise. Attention should be paid to the warehouse receipt inventory [3]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 2. Daily Data Monitoring - Futures: The closing price of the main contract was 71,280 yuan/ton, up 1,320 yuan from July 18; the closing price of the continuous contract was 71,260 yuan/ton, up 1,380 yuan [5]. - Lithium ore: The price of spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was $730/ton, up $19; the price of lepidolite (Li2O: 1.5% - 2.0%) was 990 yuan/ton, up 45 yuan; the price of lepidolite (Li2O: 2.0% - 2.5%) was 1,545 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan; the price of amblygonite (Li2O: 6% - 7%) was 5,175 yuan/ton, up 225 yuan; the price of amblygonite (Li2O: 7% - 8%) was 6,075 yuan/ton, up 250 yuan [5]. - Lithium carbonate: The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5% battery - grade/domestic) was 68,000 yuan/ton, up 1,350 yuan; the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate (99.2% industrial zero - grade/domestic) was 66,350 yuan/ton, up 1,300 yuan [5]. - Lithium hydroxide: The price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles/domestic) was 58,220 yuan/ton, up 600 yuan; the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (micropowder) was 63,370 yuan/ton, up 600 yuan; the price of industrial - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles/domestic) was 52,870 yuan/ton, up 600 yuan; the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (CIF China, Japan and South Korea) was $8.05/kg, unchanged [5]. - Lithium hexafluorophosphate: The price was 50,250 yuan/ton, up 750 yuan [5]. - Price differences: The price difference between battery - grade lithium carbonate and industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 1,650 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the price difference between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate was - 9,780 yuan/ton, down 750 yuan; CIF China, Japan and South Korea battery - grade lithium hydroxide - SMM battery - grade lithium hydroxide was - 644.79 yuan/ton, down 581 yuan [5]. - Precursor and cathode materials: The prices of ternary precursor 523 (polycrystalline/power type) and ternary precursor 523 (single - crystal/consumer type) were unchanged at 75,375 yuan/ton and 75,760 yuan/ton respectively; the price of ternary material 523 (polycrystalline/consumer type) was 107,000 yuan/ton, up 300 yuan; the price of ternary material 622 (polycrystalline/consumer type) was 111,210 yuan/ton, up 170 yuan [5]. - Cells and batteries: The prices of 523 square ternary cells, 523 soft - pack ternary cells, 523 cylindrical ternary batteries, square lithium iron phosphate cells, square lithium iron phosphate cells (small power type), and square lithium iron phosphate batteries were unchanged, while the price of cobalt - acid lithium cells was 5.53 yuan/Ah, up 0.01 yuan [5]. 3. Chart Analysis - **3.1 Ore Prices**: The report provides charts of the prices of spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF), lepidolite (1.5% - 2.0%), lepidolite (2.0% - 2.5%), and amblygonite (6% - 7%) from 2024 to 2025 [6][8]. - **3.2 Lithium and Lithium Salt Prices**: Charts of the prices of metallic lithium, battery - grade lithium carbonate average price, industrial - grade lithium carbonate average price, battery - grade lithium hydroxide price, industrial - grade lithium hydroxide price, and lithium hexafluorophosphate price from 2024 to 2025 are presented [11][13][15]. - **3.3 Price Differences**: Charts of the price difference between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate, the price difference between battery - grade lithium carbonate and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, CIF China, Japan and South Korea battery - grade lithium hydroxide - SMM battery - grade lithium hydroxide, and the basis from 2024 to 2025 are shown [18][20]. - **3.4 Precursor & Cathode Materials**: Charts of the prices of ternary precursors, ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, lithium manganate, and cobalt - acid lithium from 2024 to 2025 are included [22][25][28]. - **3.5 Lithium Battery Prices**: Charts of the prices of 523 square ternary cells, square lithium iron phosphate cells, cobalt - acid lithium cells, and square lithium iron phosphate batteries from 2024 to 2025 are provided [31][33]. - **3.6 Inventory**: Charts of downstream inventory, smelter inventory, and other环节 inventory of lithium carbonate from November 2024 to July 2025 are presented [36][38]. - **3.7 Production Cost**: A chart of the production cost of lithium carbonate, including cash production profit from purchasing ternary pole piece black powder, lithium iron phosphate pole piece black powder, lithium mica concentrate, and spodumene concentrate from 2024 to 2025, is shown [40].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - Cotton is expected to be in a volatile pattern. ICE US cotton fell 0.86% to 68.09 cents per pound on Monday, and CF509 decreased 0.8% to 14,185 yuan per ton. The main contract's open interest decreased by 21,871 lots to 558,900 lots. While the low - inventory situation remains unchanged, the upward driving force has weakened. Considering the strong expectation of a new cotton harvest and no obvious improvement in demand, it is difficult for prices to rise continuously. It is advisable to sell out - of - the - money call options with higher prices and buy out - of - the - money put options with lower prices [1]. - Sugar is also expected to be volatile. In June, China's imports of syrup and premixes totaled 115,500 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 103,500 tons. Due to concerns about over - production, raw sugar prices are under pressure. Domestically, sugar producers in the production areas are actively selling to reduce inventory, and the influence of processed sugar is gradually increasing. In the short term, prices lack a clear direction, and in the medium term, they depend on the pace and intensity of imported sugar [1]. Group 3: Summary of Each Section 1. Daily Data Monitoring - For cotton, the 9 - 1 spread is 195 yuan, a decrease of 110 yuan compared to the previous period. The main contract basis is 1,404 yuan, an increase of 166 yuan. The Xinjiang spot price is 15,480 yuan per ton, an increase of 56 yuan, and the national spot price is 15,589 yuan per ton, an increase of 81 yuan [2]. - For sugar, the 9 - 1 spread is 170 yuan, an increase of 1 yuan. The main contract basis is 241 yuan, a decrease of 13 yuan. The Nanning spot price is 6,060 yuan per ton, an increase of 10 yuan, and the Liuzhou spot price is 6,080 yuan per ton, unchanged [2]. 2. Market Information - On July 21, the number of cotton futures warehouse receipts was 9,501, a decrease of 31 from the previous trading day, with 223 valid forecasts [3]. - On July 21, the cotton arrival prices in different regions were: 15,480 yuan per ton in Xinjiang, 15,650 yuan per ton in Henan, 15,563 yuan per ton in Shandong, and 15,803 yuan per ton in Zhejiang [3]. - On July 21, the yarn comprehensive load was 49.9, unchanged from the previous day; the yarn comprehensive inventory was 30.1, a decrease of 0.1; the short - fiber cloth comprehensive load was 48.1, unchanged; and the short - fiber cloth comprehensive inventory was 33.8, unchanged [3]. - On July 21, the sugar spot prices were 6,060 yuan per ton in Nanning, an increase of 10 yuan, and 6,080 yuan per ton in Liuzhou, unchanged [3]. - On July 21, the number of sugar futures warehouse receipts was 21,437, a decrease of 40 from the previous trading day, with 0 valid forecasts [4]. 3. Chart Analysis - The report presents multiple charts including cotton and sugar's main contract closing prices, basis, 9 - 1 spreads, warehouse receipts and valid forecasts, and China's cotton price index, with data sources from Wind and the research institute [6][11][13][15]. 4. Research Team Introduction - Zhang Xiaojin is the director of resource product research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, focusing on the sugar industry. He has won many awards [18]. - Zhang Linglu is a resource product analyst at Everbright Futures Research Institute, responsible for futures varieties such as urea and soda - ash glass, and has won many honors [19]. - Sun Chengzhen is a resource product analyst at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly engaged in fundamental research and data analysis of cotton, cotton yarn, and ferroalloys, and has won relevant honors [20].

光大期货煤化工商品日报 光大期货煤化工商品日报（2025 年 7 月 22 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周一尿素期货价格高开后偏强运行，主力09合约收盘价1812元/吨，涨幅3.07%。现 货市场同步走强，主流地区价格上调20~30元/吨不等，山东、河南地区市场价格分 | | | | 别上涨至1830元/吨、1840元/吨。基本面来看，尿素供应水平继续小幅回落，昨日 | | | | 行业日产量19.22万吨，日环比降0.07万吨。需求端跟进情绪积极，主流地区产销率 | | | 尿素 | 多数攀升至100%以上，但区域间表现仍有分化。当前供需逻辑并非市场主导驱动， | 谨慎看涨 | | | 期货市场工业品及煤炭等原料上涨、反内卷等继续给尿素期价带来有力支撑，但受 | | | | 制于保供稳价政策限制，尿素期价上方空间依旧有限，短期谨慎看多但不建议过分 | | | | 追涨。关注尿素日产水平变化、下游需求跟进力度、商品市场整体走势。 | | | | 周一纯碱期货价格上涨明 ，现货市场小幅上涨，部分厂家再现 单现 ， 部碱 | | | | 厂 ...

黑色商品日报 黑色商品日报（2025 年 7 月 22 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 钢材 | 螺纹钢：昨日螺纹盘面强势上涨，截止日盘螺纹 2510 合约收盘价格为 3224 元/吨，较上一交易收盘价格 | 偏强运行 | | | 上涨 77 元/吨，涨幅 2.45%，持仓增加 2.01 万手。现货价格明显上涨，成交回升，唐山地区迁安普方坯价 | | | | 格上涨 20 元/吨至 3060 元/吨，杭州市场中天螺纹价格上涨 80 元/吨至 3300 元/吨，全国建材成交量 12.78 | | | | 万吨。上周五工信部表态钢铁、有色、石化等十大重点行业稳增长方案即将出台，工信部将推动重点行业 | | | | 着力调结构、优供给、淘汰落后产能。7 月 19 日中国雅江集团正式成立，计划建设雅鲁藏布江下游水电 | | | | 工程，总投资高达 1.2 万亿元（相当于 10 个港珠澳大桥、5 个三峡工程），建设周期 10-15 年。钢铁行业 | | | | 供给侧改革预期再起，大基建题材也接连发力，在很大程度上提升市场情绪。预计短期螺纹盘面仍将偏强 ...