Group 1: Research Views - Urea futures prices weakened on the first trading day after the holiday, with the main 01 contract closing at 1,609 yuan/ton, a decline of 3.42%. The spot market continued to weaken, and the supply decreased slightly. Demand was weak, and inventories increased. The market sentiment is weak, and prices are likely to remain under pressure. Follow-up attention should be paid to device maintenance, environmental protection restrictions, export policies, and the results of the Indian tender [2]. - Soda ash futures prices oscillated weakly, with the main 01 contract closing at 1,250 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.73%. The spot manufacturer's quotes were basically stable, and the supply fluctuated within a limited range. Although the procurement demand increased, the supply exceeded demand. The market will continue to oscillate widely. Follow-up attention should be paid to macro and policy expectations, glass futures prices, cost disturbances, and environmental protection factors [2]. - Glass futures prices oscillated widely, with the main 01 contract closing at 1,218 yuan/ton, a slight decline of 0.98%. The spot market continued to pick up, demand recovered, and inventories increased. The spot market activity continued to increase after the holiday, and there are signs of a partial rebound in futures prices. However, it is not advisable to be overly optimistic, and follow-up trends require more positive factors. Follow-up attention should be paid to the progress of coal-to-gas conversion in Shahe, the sustainability of spot transactions, macro sentiment, and the overall trend of the commodity market [2]. Group 2: Market Information Urea - On October 9, the number of urea futures warehouse receipts was 7,017, a decrease of 152 from the previous trading day, and the effective forecast was 21 [5]. - On October 9, the daily output of the urea industry was 194,900 tons, a decrease of 6,600 tons from the previous working day and an increase of 2,400 tons from the same period last year. The operating rate was 83.31%, a decrease of 3 percentage points from 86.31% in the same period last year [5]. - On October 9, the spot prices of small-grain urea in various regions in China decreased to varying degrees [5]. - As of October 9, the inventory of urea enterprises was 1.4439 million tons, an increase of 212,200 tons or 17.23% from the previous week [5]. Soda Ash & Glass - On October 9, the number of soda ash futures warehouse receipts was 7,108, a decrease of 225 from the previous trading day, and the effective forecast was 2,763. The number of glass futures warehouse receipts was 0, unchanged from the previous trading day [7]. - On October 9, the spot prices of soda ash in various regions were reported [7]. - On October 9, the daily operating rate of the soda ash industry was 85.60%, down from 89.14% on the previous working day [8]. - As of October 9, the inventory of soda ash manufacturers was 1.6598 million tons, an increase of 59,900 tons or 3.74% from before the holiday [9]. - On October 9, the average price of the float glass market was 1,260 yuan/ton, an increase of 9 yuan/ton from the previous day. The daily output of the industry was 161,300 tons, unchanged from the previous day [9]. - As of October 9, the inventory of float glass sample enterprises was 62.824 million weight boxes, an increase of 3.469 million weight boxes or 5.85% from the previous week, and an increase of 6.76% year-on-year. The inventory days were 26.7 days, an increase of 1.3 days from the previous week [9]. Group 3: Chart Analysis - The report provides multiple charts, including the closing prices of the main contracts of urea and soda ash, the basis of urea and soda ash, the trading volume and open interest of the main contracts of urea and soda ash, the price differences between different contracts of urea and soda ash, the spot price trends of urea and soda ash, the price differences between urea and methanol futures, and the price differences between glass and soda ash futures. All chart data sources are iFind and the Everbright Futures Research Institute [11][18][19]. Group 4: Research Team Members - Zhang Xiaojin, the director of the resource product research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, focuses on sugar industry research and has won many awards [23]. - Zhang Linglu, an analyst at Everbright Futures Research Institute, is responsible for the research of futures varieties such as urea, soda ash, and glass and has won many honors [23]. - Sun Chengzhen, an analyst at Everbright Futures Research Institute, is mainly engaged in the fundamental research and data analysis of varieties such as cotton, cotton yarn, and ferroalloys and has won relevant honors [23].

软商品日报 光大期货软商品日报（2025 年 10 月 10 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 棉花 | 周四，ICE 美棉下跌 0.69%，报收 64.46 美分/磅，CF601 环比上涨 0.38%，报收 13295 | 上方承 | | | 元/吨，主力合约持仓环比上涨 15043 手至 55.05 万手，棉花 3128B 现货价格指数 | | | | 14500 元/吨，较前一日下降 45 元/吨。国际市场方面，近期市场关注重心仍更多 | | | | 在于宏观层面，美国政府依旧处于停摆状态中。美联储议息会议纪要显示，委员 | | | | 对后续降息路径仍有分歧，美元指数重新回到 99 以上，美棉价格低位窄幅震荡为 | | | | 主。国内市场方面，节后首日郑棉止跌，持仓环比增加。当前市场关注重心在于 | | | | 新棉，依据国家纤检中心，截止 10 月 8 日，本年度全国新棉累计公检量近 20 万吨， | 压 | | | 高于去年同期水平，上市进度稍有提前。未来 10 天，新疆北部气温偏低，仍有少 | | | | 量降雨，对籽棉收购进度仍 ...

农产品日报（2025 年 10 月 10 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 周四，玉米先跌后涨，主力 | 2511 | 合约低开后反弹，期价以小阳线收盘。十一长 | 假期间，现货市场走势分化，东北产区新玉米上市量增加，玉米报价承压下行。 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 山东、河北持续降雨天气影响玉米收割及晾晒，玉米现货市场新、陈报价拉大。 | 国庆假日期间东北玉米价格以下行调整为主，上货量较大，导致价格下调；假期 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 的最后两天，北港价格略有反弹，前期价格下调明显，集港略有减少。 | 国庆期 | 间华北地区玉米价格维持震荡运行，期间价格有涨有跌，但整体有所下移。从供 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 应来看，国庆期间深加工企业玉米到货 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Steel: Narrow - range consolidation [1] - Iron Ore: Fluctuation [1] - Coking Coal: Fluctuation [1] - Coke: Fluctuation [1] - Manganese Silicon: Weak - side fluctuation [3] - Ferrosilicon: Weak - side fluctuation [3] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes the market conditions of various black commodities on October 10, 2025. It comprehensively considers factors such as supply, demand, price changes, and inventory levels of each commodity, and provides corresponding short - term trend forecasts for them [1][3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Research Views - **Steel**: After the holiday, the steel rebar futures market was volatile and slightly stronger. Spot prices rose slightly, and trading volume increased. However, there was a significant inventory build - up during the holiday, and the inventory digestion pressure after the holiday was still large. Although the market had strong expectations for macro - policies and the price was at a low level, the short - term industry supply - demand situation still put pressure on prices, so it was expected to move in a narrow - range [1] - **Iron Ore**: The price of the main iron ore futures contract rose after the holiday. The supply side showed a decline in shipments, and the demand side had a slight decrease in molten iron production. With high demand supporting the price and multiple factors in a multi - empty situation, the ore price was expected to continue to fluctuate in the short term [1] - **Coking Coal**: The coking coal futures market rose. On the supply side, coal mine safety inspections might be tightened after an accident. On the demand side, coke enterprises slowed down their raw coal purchases after the profit recovery. It was expected that the coking coal futures market would fluctuate widely in the short term [1] - **Coke**: The coke futures market rose. After the first round of price increases, the supply side was stable. On the demand side, steel mills' inventory decreased, and the finished product shipments were average, suppressing the replenishment demand. It was expected that the coke futures market would fluctuate widely in the short term [1] - **Manganese Silicon**: The manganese silicon futures price fluctuated narrowly. The cost support was relatively strong, but the supply was at a relatively high level, and the short - term fundamental upward driving force was limited. It was necessary to pay attention to the change of market sentiment [3] - **Ferrosilicon**: The ferrosilicon futures price fluctuated weakly. The cost support weakened, and the supply was at a relatively high level. The demand side was about to start a new round of steel tenders, and the price center of tenders was expected to move down slightly. It was expected to run weakly and fluctuate in the short term [3] 2. Daily Data Monitoring - **Contract Spread**: For various commodities such as steel rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon, the report provided the latest values and month - on - month changes of contract spreads (e.g., 1 - 5 months, 5 - 10 months, etc.) [4] - **Basis**: It presented the latest values and month - on - month changes of the basis of the main contracts of various commodities and the latest values and month - on - month changes of spot prices in different regions [4] - **Profit and Spread**: Information on the latest values and month - on - month changes of profit (such as steel rebar's disk profit, long - process profit, short - process profit) and inter - commodity spreads (such as coil - rebar spread, rebar - ore ratio, etc.) was provided [4] 3. Chart Analysis - **Main Contract Price**: It showed the closing price trends of the main contracts of steel rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon from 2020 to 2025 through figures [6][7][10][15] - **Main Contract Basis**: The basis trends of the main contracts of various commodities from 2022 - 2026 were presented through figures [17][19][23][25] - **Inter - period Contract Spread**: The trends of inter - period contract spreads of various commodities (such as 10 - 01, 01 - 05, 05 - 09) were shown through figures [27][32][33][37][39] - **Inter - commodity Contract Spread**: The trends of inter - commodity spreads of various main contracts (such as coil - rebar spread, rebar - ore ratio, rebar - coke ratio, etc.) from 2020 to 2025 were presented through figures [43][45][47] - **Steel Rebar Profit**: The trends of disk profit, long - process calculated profit, and short - process calculated profit of the steel rebar main contract from 2020 to 2025 were shown through figures [48][52] 4. Black Research Team Member Introduction - The report introduced the information of the black research team members of Everbright Futures, including their positions, work experience, honors, and relevant qualification numbers [54][55]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Copper**: Overnight copper prices rose and then fell, with LME copper approaching its historical high. The US government shutdown and delayed economic data have led to differences among Fed officials on whether to cut interest rates in October. LME, Comex, and domestic social copper inventories have increased, and downstream procurement is cautious at high prices. The impact of the Grasberg mine accident in Indonesia on global copper supply in Q4 2025 and 2026 is a fact, which is expected to support copper prices. It is recommended to go long on dips and pay attention to the price differences between Comex and LME copper and between domestic and foreign markets [1]. - **Aluminum**: After the holiday, alumina, Shanghai aluminum, and aluminum alloy all showed a slightly stronger trend. Alumina market news is scarce, and it continues to be in an oversupply situation. After the short - term price increase of electrolytic aluminum, the market has pinned its hopes on the "Silver October" for consumption. Pay attention to the post - holiday inventory - consumption trend, and beware of price corrections if the destocking is less than expected [1][2]. - **Nickel**: Overnight, LME nickel and Shanghai nickel prices rose. LME inventory increased, and domestic SHFE warehouse receipts decreased. Indonesia has introduced a new policy on mining production quotas. Nickel ore operations are stable, but policy risks need to be watched. Stainless steel is under pressure, and the new energy industry chain is expected to see increased demand. Shanghai nickel prices are expected to fluctuate widely [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Copper**: Macro factors and inventory increases have affected copper prices. The mine accident impact on supply is expected to support prices. It is recommended to go long on dips and monitor price differences [1]. - **Aluminum**: Post - holiday prices are slightly stronger. Alumina is in surplus, and electrolytic aluminum consumption hopes are on "Silver October". Monitor inventory - consumption trends [1][2]. - **Nickel**: Prices are affected by macro and policy factors. Nickel ore operations are stable, but policy risks exist. Stainless steel is under pressure, and new energy demand is expected to increase. Prices will fluctuate widely [2]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Copper**: On October 9, 2025, the price of flat - water copper was 85,720 yuan/ton, up 2,525 yuan from September 30. LME inventory decreased by 3,925 tons, and domestic social inventory decreased by 0.6 million tons [3]. - **Lead**: The average price of 1 lead was 16,910 yuan/ton on October 9, up 30 yuan from September 30. LME inventory increased by 1,375 tons, and上期所 inventory decreased by 7,315 tons [3]. - **Aluminum**: On October 9, the Wuxi aluminum price was 20,980 yuan/ton, up 300 yuan from September 30. LME inventory decreased by 4,825 tons, and domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory increased by 5.7 million tons [4]. - **Nickel**: On October 9, the price of Jinchuan nickel plate was 124,825 yuan/ton, up 1,150 yuan from September 30. LME inventory increased by 5,580 tons, and domestic SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 42 tons [4]. - **Zinc**: On October 9, the main settlement price was 22,200 yuan/ton, up 1.2% from September 30. LME inventory remained unchanged, and domestic social inventory increased by 0.78 million tons [6]. - **Tin**: On October 9, the main settlement price was 285,070 yuan/ton, up 2.3% from September 30. LME inventory decreased by 115 tons, and上期所 inventory decreased by 130 tons [6]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Spot Premium**: Charts show the historical trends of spot premiums for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [8][10][12]. - **SHFE Near - Far Month Spread**: Charts show the historical trends of the spread between the first and second - month contracts for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2020 - 2025 [15][19][20]. - **LME Inventory**: Charts show the historical trends of LME inventory for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [23][25][27]. - **SHFE Inventory**: Charts show the historical trends of SHFE inventory for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [29][31][33]. - **Social Inventory**: Charts show the historical trends of social inventory for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series from 2019 - 2025 [36][38][40]. - **Smelting Profit**: Charts show the historical trends of copper concentrate index, rough copper processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless steel 304 smelting profit margin from 2019 - 2025 [42][44][46]. 3.4 Team Introduction - The research team consists of Zhan Dapeng, Wang Heng, and Zhu Xi, who have rich experience in non - ferrous metal research and have won many industry awards [49][50].

光大期货金融期货日报 光大期货金融期货日报（2025 年 10 月 10 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 昨日，A 股节后开门红，Wind 全 A 收涨 1.31%，成交额 2.67 万亿元，受到 | | | | 节日期间海外黄金大幅上涨的提振，国内有色金属股票全线上涨，拉动指数 | | | | 冲高，也使得大盘指数涨幅超过小盘。中证 1000 指数上涨 0.96%，中证 500 | | | | 指数上涨 1.84%，沪深 300 指数上涨 1.48%，上证 50 指数上涨 1.06%。节日 | | | | 期间，地缘事件引起较多关注：（1）日本新首相当选后日经指数继续上涨， | | | | 创历史新高，但其政策观点富有争议，后续仍可继续关注；（2）中东巴以冲 | | | | 突进一步扩大化，包括美国在内的多国陆续发生表态；（3）美国政府因新财 | | | 股指 | 年预算问题再次陷入停摆，后续债务问题仍需关注。国内方面，人民日报近 | 偏强 | | | 期连续发布"仲才文"署名文章，为"十五五规划"进行预热。根据政治局 | | | | 会 ...

股指期货日度数据跟踪 2025-10-10 一、指数走势 10 月 09 日，上证综指涨跌幅 1.32%，收于 3933.97 点，成交额 12168.89 亿元，深成指数涨跌幅 1.47%，收于 13725.56 点，成交额 14363.08 亿元。 中证 1000 指数涨跌幅 0.96%，成交额 5305.0 亿元，其中开盘价 7623.3，收盘价 7648.05，当日最高价 7671.17，最低价 7590.47； 中证 500 指数涨跌幅 1.84%，成交额 5357.57 亿元，其中开盘价 7470.05，收盘价 7548.92，当日最高价 7559.09，最低价 7437.32； 沪深 300 指数涨跌幅 1.48%，成交额 8622.08 亿元，其中开盘价 4662.11，收盘价 4709.48，当日最高价 4726.34，最低价 4651.99； 上证 50 指数涨跌幅 1.06%，成交额 2319.23 亿元，其中开盘价 3004.45，收盘价 3020.6，当日最高价 3030.72，最低价 2984.83。 数据来源：Wind，光期研究所 数据来源：Wind，光期研究所 二、板块涨跌对指 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. However, for each specific energy and chemical product, the following ratings are given: - Crude oil: Oscillating [1] - Fuel oil: Oscillating [3] - Asphalt: Oscillating [3] - Polyester: Oscillating [5] - Rubber: Oscillating [7] - Methanol: Oscillating [8] - Polyolefins: Oscillating weakly [8] - Polyvinyl chloride (PVC): Oscillating [9] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Crude oil**: Geopolitical tensions have eased with the Israel - Hamas cease - fire agreement, leading to a decline in the geopolitical premium of crude oil and downward pressure on oil prices. US refinery operations and inventory data show an increase in commercial crude oil inventories and a decrease in gasoline and distillate inventories. Under the triple tests of supply increase expectations, geopolitical factor easing, and demand entering the off - season, oil prices are expected to continue their weakening trend [1]. - **Fuel oil**: Although the East - West arbitrage window for low - sulfur fuel oil is mostly closed, the inflow of component oils for blending low - sulfur fuel oil continues to increase. The Asian high - sulfur fuel oil market is relatively stable, but the supply may increase in the future. The high - sulfur fundamentals may be slightly stronger than the low - sulfur [3]. - **Asphalt**: During the National Day holiday, the overall supply of asphalt increased slightly. The continuous rainfall in the southern regions hinders downstream construction, while the northern regions still have some catch - up demand. The recent significant increase in asphalt production may put pressure on prices after the peak season [3]. - **Polyester**: In the fourth quarter, there will be some overseas PX device overhauls, and the ethylene glycol production capacity may continue to increase. The demand for winter fabrics has recovered seasonally but is expected to weaken in the second half of October. Under the situation of supply increase and demand weakening, the fundamentals of TA and ethylene glycol are weak, and their prices are expected to oscillate weakly [5]. - **Rubber**: Affected by Typhoon "Maideme", the rubber production in Hainan Island is expected to decrease. The US tariff on heavy - truck imports may suppress global rubber demand. After the holiday, rubber prices are expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to new rubber warehouse receipts and crude oil price fluctuations [7]. - **Methanol**: The market is concerned about Iran's winter gas - rationing news. With the recovery of MTO device operations in East China, port demand has significantly increased, but MTO profit compression may affect refinery maintenance plans. In the short term, methanol prices are suppressed by high inventories and tend to oscillate [8]. - **Polyolefins**: Poor profit performance may lead to a high level of maintenance, and domestic production is unlikely to increase significantly in the short term. After the holiday, downstream orders will gradually decline, affecting the procurement of raw materials. Supply pressure remains high, demand has peaked and declined, and polyolefin prices are expected to oscillate weakly [8]. - **PVC**: In the fourth quarter, high - supply status will continue. As the peak season in October ends, downstream operations are expected to decline, and exports may weaken due to India's anti - dumping duties. High inventory pressure will restrict price increases, and market fluctuations may increase [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude oil**: On Thursday, the price of WTI November contract closed at $61.51 per barrel, down $1.04 or 1.66%. Brent December contract closed at $65.22 per barrel, down $1.03 or 1.55%. SC2511 closed at 464.2 yuan per barrel, down 4.5 yuan or 0.96%. Israel's approval of the Gaza cease - fire agreement led to a decline in the geopolitical premium. US refinery operations and inventory data show an increase in commercial crude oil inventories and a decrease in gasoline and distillate inventories [1]. - **Fuel oil**: On Thursday, the main contract of fuel oil (FU2601) on the Shanghai Futures Exchange closed down 1.25% at 2,834 yuan per ton, and the low - sulfur fuel oil main contract (LU2511) closed down 1.23% at 3,360 yuan per ton. The inflow of component oils for blending low - sulfur fuel oil continues to increase, and the Asian high - sulfur fuel oil market is relatively stable [3]. - **Asphalt**: On Thursday, the main contract of asphalt (BU2511) on the Shanghai Futures Exchange closed down 1.52% at 3,375 yuan per ton. During the National Day holiday, the overall supply of asphalt increased slightly, and the southern rainfall affected downstream construction [3]. - **Polyester**: TA601 closed at 4,626 yuan per ton, up 1.54%. EG2601 closed at 4,234 yuan per ton, up 0.52%. In the fourth quarter, there will be some overseas PX device overhauls, and the ethylene glycol production capacity may increase. The demand for winter fabrics has recovered seasonally but is expected to weaken [5]. - **Rubber**: On Thursday, the main contract of Shanghai - traded rubber (RU2601) rose 95 yuan per ton to 15,620 yuan per ton. Affected by Typhoon "Maideme", rubber production in Hainan Island is expected to decrease, and the US tariff on heavy - truck imports may suppress demand [7]. - **Methanol**: On Thursday, the spot price in Taicang was 2,213 yuan per ton. The market is concerned about Iran's winter gas - rationing news. With the recovery of MTO device operations in East China, port demand has increased [8]. - **Polyolefins**: On Thursday, the mainstream price of East - China drawn polypropylene was 6,700 - 6,800 yuan per ton. Poor profit performance may lead to high - level maintenance, and domestic production is unlikely to increase significantly in the short term. After the holiday, downstream orders will decline [8]. - **PVC**: On Thursday, the price of PVC in the East - China market decreased. In the fourth quarter, high - supply status will continue, and downstream operations are expected to decline as the peak season ends [9]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring The report provides the spot price, futures price, basis, basis rate, and their changes for various energy and chemical products on October 10, 2025, including crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas, asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, methanol, urea, polyethylene, polypropylene, PTA, ethylene glycol, styrene, natural rubber, 20 - grade rubber, and soda ash [10]. 3.3 Market News - Israel and Hamas have reached a long - sought cease - fire and personnel release agreement, which weakens the geopolitical risk premium of crude oil and triggers investors to sell [12]. - In the absence of strong new signals in supply and demand, crude oil prices have also declined with the broader market. The US government shutdown and the strengthening of the US dollar have reduced the attractiveness of dollar - denominated commodities. Oil prices are likely to remain range - bound and slightly downward [12]. 3.4 Chart Analysis 3.4.1 Main Contract Prices The report presents the closing price trends of main contracts for various energy and chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, LPG, PTA, ethylene glycol, short - fiber, LLDPE, polypropylene, PVC, methanol, styrene, 20 - grade rubber, natural rubber, synthetic rubber, European container shipping, and p - xylene [14][17][20][21][23][25][27][28]. 3.4.2 Main Contract Basis The report shows the basis trends of main contracts for various energy and chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, natural rubber, 20 - grade rubber, p - xylene, synthetic rubber, and bottle chips [31][35][36][39][42][44]. 3.4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads The report displays the spreads between different contracts for various energy and chemical products, including fuel oil, asphalt, European container shipping index, PTA, ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, and natural rubber [46][48][51][54][58][60]. 3.4.4 Inter - variety Spreads The report presents the spreads and ratios between different varieties of energy and chemical products, including crude oil internal and external spreads, crude oil B - W spreads, fuel oil high - low sulfur spreads, fuel oil/asphalt ratio, BU/SC ratio, ethylene glycol - PTA spread, PP - LLDPE spread, and natural rubber - 20 - grade rubber spread [62][65][67][68]. 3.4.5 Production Profits The report shows the production profit trends of ethylene - based ethylene glycol, PP, and LLDPE from 2021 to 2025 [70][73]. 3.5 Team Member Introduction - **Zhong Meiyan**: Assistant to the director of the research institute and director of energy and chemicals, with over a decade of experience in futures and derivatives market research, has won multiple industry awards [77]. - **Du Bingqin**: Analyst for crude oil, natural gas, fuel oil, asphalt, and shipping, with in - depth research on the energy industry chain and has won many industry awards [78]. - **Di Yilin**: Analyst for natural rubber and polyester, with strong data analysis and logical thinking abilities, and has won several industry awards [79]. - **Peng Haibo**: Analyst for methanol, PE, PP, and PVC, with experience in integrating financial theory and industrial operations [80].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The steel market, including rebar and hot - rolled coils, shows signs of weak consolidation. Rebar inventories have decreased, and the implementation of new policy financial tools may support market sentiment. However, the short - term rebar futures market is expected to remain weak [1]. - The iron ore market is expected to be volatile. Although iron ore prices have declined, iron ore demand, as indicated by increasing iron - water production, is rising, while supply shows mixed trends [1]. - The coking coal and coke markets are likely to experience wide - range fluctuations. The coking coal market is affected by pre - holiday production adjustments and downstream inventory replenishment, and the coke market is influenced by cost increases and demand changes [1]. - The manganese silicon and silicon iron markets are expected to be weakly volatile. Both markets face challenges such as high supply, limited demand, and increasing production costs [1][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Steel**: The rebar futures contract 2601 closed at 3097 yuan/ton, down 0.0.55% from the previous trading day, with a decrease in positions. Spot prices were stable, and the national building materials inventory decreased by 5.1% week - on - week. The hot - rolled coil inventory also declined. The market is expected to be weakly consolidated [1]. - **Iron Ore**: The main iron ore futures contract i2601 closed at 784 yuan/ton, down 0.76%. Australian shipments increased slightly, Brazilian shipments decreased steadily, and other countries' shipments increased. Iron - water production rose, and the market is expected to be volatile [1]. - **Coking Coal**: The coking coal futures contract 2601 closed at 1154 yuan/ton, down 3.55%. Some coal mines have scheduled holiday maintenance, and downstream inventory replenishment is nearing completion. The market is expected to fluctuate widely [1]. - **Coke**: The coke futures contract 2601 closed at 1647 yuan/ton, down 2.69%. Some steel mills have accepted the first round of coke price increases. Coke supply may decrease due to cost pressure, and the market is expected to fluctuate widely [1]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The manganese silicon futures price weakened, closing at 5820 yuan/ton, down 0.78%. Supply remains relatively high, demand is limited, and production costs are increasing. The market is expected to be weakly volatile [1]. - **Silicon Iron**: The silicon iron futures price weakened, closing at 5610 yuan/ton, down 1.23%. Supply is high, demand is limited, and production costs are rising. The market is expected to be weakly volatile [3]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Contract Spreads**: The spreads of various contracts, such as 1 - 5 months and 5 - 10 months for different commodities, showed different changes. For example, the 1 - 5 month spread of rebar was - 58.0, down 1.0 [3]. - **Basis**: The basis of different contracts also changed. For instance, the basis of the 01 rebar contract was 143.0, down 3.0 [3]. - **Spot Prices**: Spot prices of different commodities in different regions changed. For example, the Shanghai spot price of rebar was 3240.0, down 10.0 [3]. - **Profits and Price Ratios**: The report also monitored profits (such as rebar's盘面利润, long - process profit, and short - process profit) and price ratios (such as the coil - rebar ratio, rebar - iron ore ratio, etc.) [3]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Main Contract Prices**: The report presented the historical closing prices of the main contracts of rebar, hot - rolled coils, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and silicon iron from 2020 to 2025 [5][7][8][10][14]. - **Main Contract Basis**: The historical basis of the main contracts of various commodities was shown, including rebar, hot - rolled coils, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and silicon iron [16][18][21][23]. - **Inter - period Contract Spreads**: The historical spreads of different inter - period contracts (such as 10 - 01, 01 - 05, 05 - 09) of various commodities were presented [25][28][29][30][31][33][34][35][37][39]. - **Inter - commodity Contract Spreads**: The historical spreads of different inter - commodity contracts (such as the coil - rebar ratio, rebar - iron ore ratio, etc.) were shown [41][42][43][44]. - **Rebar Profits**: The historical profits of rebar (盘面利润, long - process profit, and short - process profit) from 2020 to 2025 were presented [46][47][49]. 3.4 Black Research Team Members Introduction - The black research team of Everbright Futures includes Qiu Yuecheng, Zhang Xiaojin, Liu Xi, and Zhang Chunjie, each with their own professional backgrounds and qualifications [51][52].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Corn: Oscillating weakly [1] - Soybean Meal: Oscillating [1] - Oils: Oscillating [1] - Eggs: Oscillating [1] - Pigs: Oscillating weakly [2] Core Views of the Report - Corn prices are expected to remain weak in the medium - term due to increasing new - grain supply after the National Day holiday, slow harvest progress in North China affected by weather, and low pre - holiday purchasing enthusiasm in the sales area [1]. - Soybean meal prices are affected by the harvest progress in the US and Brazil, with sufficient domestic supply during the National Day holiday, so it is recommended to clear positions for the holiday [1]. - Oil prices are affected by factors such as export data and inventory changes. With sufficient domestic inventory after the festival, it is suggested to clear positions for the holiday [1]. - Egg prices are under short - term supply pressure, but the expectation of eliminating excess capacity supports the market. It is recommended to hold a light or empty position during the holiday and pay attention to demand and capacity data [1]. - Pig prices continue to decline due to abundant supply. Although the pre - holiday demand increases, the supply still suppresses the price. It is recommended to hold a light or empty position and focus on consumption and capacity changes [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Research Views - **Corn**: On Monday, the November corn contract opened flat and closed lower. New - season corn in Liaoning and eastern Heilongjiang has a good supply, and prices are falling. After the National Day, more corn will be on the market, and prices are hard to improve in the short - term. North China's prices are stable with minor adjustments, and the sales area's prices are mainly stable. Technically, positions are decreasing before the holiday, and the medium - term outlook is weak [1]. - **Soybean Meal**: On Monday, CBOT soybeans fell due to expanded harvest and concerns about export demand. US soybean inspection was 59.4 tons, and the harvest rate was 19%, with a good rate of 62%. Brazil's soybean sowing is going well. Domestically, prices are weakly oscillating, and it is recommended to clear positions for the holiday [1]. - **Oils**: On Monday, BMD palm oil first rose and then fell, affected by weak soybean oil. Malaysian palm oil exports from September 1 - 25 increased by 11.3% - 12.9% month - on - month. Domestic palm oil has mixed factors, soybean oil lacks upward momentum, and rapeseed oil closed lower with reduced positions. It is recommended to clear positions for the holiday [1]. - **Eggs**: On Monday, egg futures weakened. Spot prices were mostly stable with some declines. Short - term supply pressures the price, but the expectation of eliminating excess capacity supports the market. It is recommended to hold a light or empty position during the holiday [1]. - **Pigs**: On Monday, pig futures continued to decline. Spot prices are weak due to abundant supply. The decline in the number of fertile sows in August has not yet affected the short - term supply. It is recommended to hold a light or empty position and pay attention to consumption and capacity changes [2]. Market Information - **Palm Oil**: Different institutions' data on Malaysian palm oil exports from September 1 - 20 vary. The SGS data shows a 16.1% decrease compared to the same period last month, while Amspec shows an 8.3% increase. The SPPOMA data indicates a 7.89% decrease in production from September 1 - 20 compared to the same period last month [2][3]. - **Pigs**: The national pig - feed price ratio this week is 5.12, a 1.54% month - on - month decrease. The expected profit per pig in the future is - 106.13 yuan. The pig price is expected to continue to decline next week [3]. - **Agricultural Products Wholesale Prices**: On September 22, the "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" and the "Vegetable Basket" product wholesale price index increased. The average prices of pork, eggs, and white - striped chickens in the national agricultural product wholesale market also increased compared to last Friday [3]. Variety Spreads - **Contract Spreads**: Charts show the 1 - 5 spreads of corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, eggs, and pigs [5][6][10]. - **Contract Basis**: Charts show the basis of corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, eggs, and pigs [13][16][23]