二、市场信息 1. 南部半岛棕榈油压榨商协会（SPPOMA）数据显示，2025 年 7 月 1-20 日马来西亚棕榈油单产环比上月 同期增加 7.03%，出油率环比上月同期减少 0.16%，产量环比上月同期增加 6.19%。 2. 马来西亚独立检验机构 Amspec 表示，马来西亚 7 月 1-20 日的棕榈油出口量为 740394 吨，上月同期为 798813 吨，环比减少 7.31%。 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 EVERBRIGHT FUTURES 1 | | 成利多，然而考虑到目前的高存栏及冷库蛋等供给问题，蛋价高点大概率低于去 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 2509 | 年同期。 周一，生猪主力 早盘反弹，随后有所回落，截至收盘，日收涨 1.63%，报收 | | | | 14365 元/吨。生猪现货方面，卓创数据显示，昨日中国生猪日度均价 14.4 元/公 斤，环比涨 0.24 元/公斤，基准交割地河南市场生猪均价 14.48 元/公斤，环比涨 | | | 生猪 | 0.02 元/公斤，广东、山东、四川、辽宁不同程度上涨。养殖端挺价意愿转强， | 震荡 | | | 叠加少 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Copper: Overnight LME copper rose 0.74% to $9,867/ton, SHFE copper rose 0.64% to 79,770 yuan/ton, and domestic spot imports remained slightly in the red. LME inventory decreased by 100 tons to 122,075 tons, Comex inventory increased by 477 tons to 220,775 tons, and SMM's Monday statistics showed that the national mainstream copper inventory decreased by 24,700 tons to 118,600 tons compared to last Thursday. Affected by the off - season, consumption was weak, but concerns about rising copper prices prompted some enterprises to replenish stocks in advance. With the weakening of the US dollar, the continuation of US - copper arbitrage, concerns about the implementation of a 50% tariff, and the impact of domestic anti - involution policies, the willingness to short copper prices weakened, and prices remained strong. Be cautious about shorting before late July and early August, and also pay attention to whether domestic anti - involution policies can be implemented [1]. - Aluminum: Alumina trended higher, with overnight AO2509 closing at 3,430 yuan/ton, up 3.56%, and positions increasing by 8,162 lots to 229,700 lots. Shanghai aluminum trended stronger, with overnight AL2509 closing at 20,860 yuan/ton, up 0.55%, and positions increasing by 1,595 lots to 318,500 lots. Aluminum alloy trended stronger, with the overnight main contract AD2511 closing at 20,250 yuan/ton, up 0.6%, and positions decreasing by 267 lots to 9,752 lots. SMM's alumina price rebounded to 3,199 yuan/ton, and the spot premium of aluminum ingots widened to 100 yuan/ton. Due to some alumina plants being in the stage of maintenance, the replacement of southwest electrolytic aluminum production capacity, increased raw material stocking, and low warehouse receipt levels, spot circulation tightened, and alumina remained strong. Although the volume of delivery into warehouses may gradually peak, it is difficult to short under the anti - involution effect. New orders for electrolytic aluminum processing decreased, and off - season inventory accumulation started, which was in a game with low near - month warehouse receipts, providing short - term support. The registration of aluminum alloy warehouse receipts is approaching, and the tight supply of scrap aluminum is stronger than the weak off - season demand logic, but the one - sided rebound space is limited. Attention can be paid to the AL - AD spread arbitrage opportunity when the refined - scrap spread narrows [1][2]. - Nickel: Overnight LME nickel rose 1.74% to $15,510/ton, and Shanghai nickel rose 1.52% to 123,540 yuan/ton. LME inventory increased by 300 tons to 207,876 tons, and domestic SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 551 tons to 22,111 tons. In June 2025, China's refined nickel exports were 10,142.83 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3,831 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 208 tons; this month's net import of refined nickel was 6,867.321 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 15.74% and a year - on - year increase of 26.20%. The weekly nickel ore price was stable, the nickel iron price was at a three - year low, and the tender price was 900 yuan/nickel point; nickel salt transactions were calm, and prices declined slightly. For stainless steel, cost support weakened, weekly inventory decreased, and supply in July decreased slightly month - on - month, and the supply - demand pattern may be gradually repaired. For primary nickel, domestic weekly inventory increased month - on - month, and market pressure became apparent. Short - term prices will still fluctuate, but volatility may increase, with market sentiment, overseas policies, and fundamentals in a game [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Data Monitoring - **Copper**: The price of flat - copper increased from 78,610 yuan/ton on July 18 to 79,510 yuan/ton on July 21, with a rise of 900 yuan/ton. The premium of flat - copper increased by 50 yuan/ton. The price of 1 bright scrap copper in Guangdong increased by 500 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap spread increased by 405 yuan/ton. The prices of oxygen - free and low - oxygen copper rods in Shanghai increased by 1,000 yuan/ton and 900 yuan/ton respectively. The total inventory increased by 3,094 tons, and the social inventory (domestic + bonded area) decreased by 0.4 million tons [3]. - **Lead**: The average price of 1 lead in the Yangtze River increased by 130 yuan/ton, and the premium of 1 lead ingots in East China increased by 10 yuan/ton. The price of lead concentrate in some regions increased by 100 yuan/ton, and the processing fee remained unchanged. The inventory increased by 7,186 tons [3]. - **Aluminum**: The prices of aluminum in Wuxi and Nanhai increased by 220 yuan/ton and 190 yuan/ton respectively. The premium of aluminum decreased by 10 yuan/ton. The price of ADC12 aluminum alloy in South China increased by 100 yuan/ton. The total inventory increased by 5,625 tons, and the alumina social inventory decreased by 15,000 tons [4]. - **Nickel**: The price of Jinchuan nickel increased by 1,400 yuan/ton, and the price difference between Jinchuan nickel and Wuxi increased by 250 yuan/ton. The price of low - nickel iron remained unchanged. The nickel inventory increased by 230 tons, and the stainless - steel warehouse receipts decreased by 253 tons [4]. - **Zinc**: The main settlement price increased by 2.2%, and the SMM 0 and 1 spot prices increased by 500 yuan/ton. The domestic and imported zinc premium decreased by 10 yuan/ton. The inventory increased by 793 tons, and the LME inventory remained unchanged [5]. - **Tin**: The main settlement price increased by 0.6%, and the SMM spot price increased by 1,700 yuan/ton. The price of 60% and 40% tin concentrate decreased by 1,700 yuan/ton. The inventory increased by 51 tons, and the LME inventory remained unchanged [5]. 3.2 Chart Analysis - **Spot Premium**: Charts show the historical trends of spot premiums for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [7][9][12]. - **SHFE Near - Far Month Spread**: Charts display the historical trends of the spread between the first and second contracts for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2020 - 2025 [15][17][19]. - **LME Inventory**: Charts present the historical trends of LME inventory for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [21][23][25]. - **SHFE Inventory**: Charts show the historical trends of SHFE inventory for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [27][29][31]. - **Social Inventory**: Charts display the historical trends of social inventory for copper (including bonded areas), aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series stainless steel from 2019 - 2025 [33][35][37]. - **Smelting Profit**: Charts present the historical trends of copper concentrate index, rough copper processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless - steel 304 smelting profit margin from 2019 - 2025 [40][42][44]. 3.3 Team Introduction - Zhan Dapeng, a master of science, is the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, a senior precious metals researcher, a gold intermediate investment analyst, an excellent metal analyst of the Shanghai Futures Exchange, and the best industrial futures analyst of Futures Daily & Securities Times. He has more than a decade of commodity research experience, serves many leading spot enterprises, and has published dozens of professional articles in public newspapers and magazines. His team has won the awards for the best metal industry futures research team of Futures Daily & Securities Times in the 15th and 16th sessions and the title of excellent non - ferrous metal industry team of the Shanghai Futures Exchange in 2016 [47]. - Wang Heng, a master of finance from the University of Adelaide in Australia, is a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly focusing on aluminum and silicon research [47]. - Zhu Xi, a master of science from the University of Warwick in the UK, is a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly focusing on lithium and nickel research [48].

1. Index Trends - On July 21st, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.72% to close at 3,559.79 points, with a trading volume of 730.906 billion yuan; the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.86% to close at 11,007.49 points, with a trading volume of 969.074 billion yuan [1]. - The CSI 1000 Index rose 0.92%, with a trading volume of 359.908 billion yuan, opening at 6,557.25, closing at 6,612.26, with a daily high of 6,614.61 and a low of 6,555.04 [1]. - The CSI 500 Index rose 1.01%, with a trading volume of 272.008 billion yuan, opening at 6,115.03, closing at 6,161.31, with a daily high of 6,162.44 and a low of 6,110.99 [1]. - The SSE 50 Index rose 0.28%, with a trading volume of 96.839 billion yuan, opening at 2,770.36, closing at 2,772.24, with a daily high of 2,777.05 and a low of 2,763.35 [1]. - The SSE 300 Index rose 0.67%, with a trading volume of 377.939 billion yuan, opening at 4,069.77, closing at 4,085.61, with a daily high of 4,086.12 and a low of 4,063.44 [1]. 2. Impact of Sector Movements on Indexes - The CSI 1000 rose 60.19 points from the previous closing price, with sectors such as machinery, basic chemicals, and power equipment significantly driving the index up [5]. - The CSI 500 rose 61.7 points from the previous closing price, with sectors such as non - ferrous metals, basic chemicals, and power equipment significantly driving the index up [5]. - The SSE 300 rose 27.06 points from the previous closing price, with sectors like power equipment, non - ferrous metals, and non - banking finance driving the index up, while the banking sector pulled it down [5]. - The SSE 50 rose 7.72 points from the previous closing price, with non - ferrous metals, non - banking finance, and power equipment driving the index up, and pharmaceutical biology and the banking sector pulling it down [5]. 3. Stock Index Futures Basis and Annualized Opening Costs - For IM contracts, IM00 had an average daily basis of - 50.58, IM01 of - 120.58, IM02 of - 303.37, and IM03 of - 462.59 [14]. - For IC contracts, IC00 had an average daily basis of - 37.03, IC01 of - 85.76, IC02 of - 210.76, and IC03 of - 322.81 [14]. - For IF contracts, IF00 had an average daily basis of - 6.09, IF01 of - 15.75, IF02 of - 47.51, and IF03 of - 73.04 [14]. - For IH contracts, IH00 had an average daily basis of 0.92, IH01 of 1.2, IH02 of 4.32, and IH03 of 6.2 [14]. 4. Stock Index Futures Roll - over Point Differences and Annualized Costs - The report provides 15 - minute average data on the roll - over point differences and their annualized costs for IM, IC, IF, and IH contracts from 09:45 to 15:00 [21][23][25]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The stock index is expected to remain volatile. The short - term may bring incremental funds to the market, but the long - term effect remains to be seen. The index is difficult to break through the central level and rise significantly, and it will not fall sharply in the short term either [1]. - The bond market will continue its oscillating pattern. With the GDP maintaining over 5% for three consecutive quarters and the economy showing characteristics of strong production, rising consumption, stable exports, slow investment, and weak real estate, the probability of an interest rate cut in the short term is low [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Stock Index**: The A - share market generally rose yesterday. The weekend's start of the hydropower project in the lower reaches of the Yarlung Zangbo River drove up the infrastructure sector. June's economic and financial data showed mixed results. The central government aims to stimulate economic recovery through investment, which may bring short - term incremental funds. Overseas, the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation has slowed, and the index's fundamentals depend on the domestic economic recovery process. Currently, credit contraction and insufficient demand are the main contradictions, so the index is unlikely to rise sharply, nor will it fall significantly in the short term [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bond futures closed lower. The central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations and there was a net withdrawal of funds. Economic data indicates that the economy has strong resilience, and the probability of an interest rate cut in the short term is low, so the bond market will continue to oscillate [3]. 3.2 Daily Price Changes - **Stock Index Futures**: IH rose 0.15%, IF rose 0.57%, IC rose 0.91%, and IM rose 0.77% from July 18th to July 21st [4]. - **Stock Indexes**: The Shanghai Composite 50 rose 0.28%, the CSI 300 rose 0.67%, the CSI 500 rose 1.01%, and the CSI 1000 rose 0.92% from July 18th to July 21st [4]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: TS fell 0.01%, TF fell 0.03%, T fell 0.03%, and TL fell 0.41% from July 18th to July 21st [4]. 3.3 Market News - The 1 - year LPR was reported at 3.0%, and the 5 - year and above LPR was reported at 3.5%, remaining unchanged from the previous values [5]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **Stock Index Futures**: There are charts showing the trends and basis trends of IH, IF, IM, and IC contracts [7][8][10]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: There are charts showing the trends of treasury bond futures contracts, treasury bond spot yields, basis, inter - period spreads, cross - variety spreads, and capital interest rates [14][17][19]. - **Exchange Rates**: There are charts showing the exchange rates of the US dollar, euro, pound, and yen against the RMB, as well as forward exchange rates and currency indices [22][23][26]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - All the product varieties in the report, including crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, polyester, rubber, methanol, polyolefin, and polyvinyl chloride, are rated as "oscillating" [1][3] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Crude Oil**: On Monday, oil prices fluctuated and declined. Iran will hold nuclear negotiations with the UK, France, and Germany on Friday. The EU approved the 18th round of sanctions against Russia, including lowering the price cap on Russian crude oil. In July, the operating rates of domestic refineries increased, but the overall demand for oil prices has limited driving force, and it is expected to continue to oscillate and consolidate [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: On Monday, the main fuel oil contracts rose. The market structure of low - sulfur fuel oil weakened further, and the high - sulfur fuel oil market continued to be under pressure. The expected arrival volume from the European market in July will increase by 30 - 400,000 tons. The Asian high - sulfur fuel oil market faces supply pressure from stable Middle - Eastern shipments. The LU - FU spread has narrowed, and it is advisable to continue holding the spread short position [3]. - **Asphalt**: On Monday, the main asphalt contract rose. In August, northern demand will be further released, and some refineries' production enthusiasm has increased. However, refineries without crude oil quotas have no production plans, and some refineries in Shandong have maintenance plans. The short - term unilateral driving force of the asphalt market is not obvious, and it mainly fluctuates narrowly following the cost - end crude oil. Short - term long positions can be considered after the oil price stabilizes [3]. - **Polyester**: On Monday, the main polyester contracts rose. The sales of polyester yarn in the Yangtze River Delta were average. Some synthetic gas - to - ethylene glycol plants restarted. The inventory in the main ports in East China decreased. The macro - environment has strengthened the expectation of industry structural adjustment, supply optimization, and elimination of backward production capacity. The EG device overseas has poor recovery, and the inventory accumulation expectation is weakened. The TA supply has little change, and it follows the cost to oscillate strongly in the short term [3][4]. - **Rubber**: On Monday, the main rubber contracts rose. The inventory in Qingdao decreased. The continuous rainfall in the main rubber - producing areas has disrupted tapping operations. The downstream tire inventory is high and stable, and the demand has improved slightly. Rubber prices are expected to oscillate strongly. Attention should be paid to the changes in the external macro - environment and extreme weather such as typhoons [4]. - **Methanol**: On Monday, the methanol price showed a certain pattern. The load of Iranian devices has recovered to a high point, and the arrival volume has also increased. The downstream profit has recovered, and the start - up is expected to remain stable. The 9 - 1 spread and basis have returned to the normal range, and the price has returned to an oscillating trend [7]. - **Polyolefin**: On Monday, the polyolefin price was in a certain state. Polyolefin will gradually transition to a situation of strong supply and demand, and the fundamental contradiction is not prominent. If the cost end does not decline significantly, the downside space of polyolefin is also limited [7]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride**: On Monday, the PVC market price increased. The enterprise start - up has recovered, but the demand has not improved significantly. The basis and monthly spread have widened again, and the arbitrage space has gradually opened. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term due to excessive market news [7][8]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: WTI August contract closed down $0.14 to $67.20 per barrel, a decline of 0.21%. Brent September contract closed down $0.07 to $69.21 per barrel, a decline of 0.10%. SC2509 closed at 509.1 yuan per barrel, down 6.2 yuan per barrel, a decline of 1.20% [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: The main fuel oil contract FU2509 rose 1.53% to 2924 yuan per ton, and the low - sulfur fuel oil main contract LU2510 rose 0.19% to 3602 yuan per ton [3]. - **Asphalt**: The main asphalt contract BU2509 rose 0.27% to 3657 yuan per ton [3]. - **Polyester**: TA509 closed at 4780 yuan per ton, up 0.76%. EG2509 closed at 4410 yuan per ton, up 0.78%. The basis increased by 14 yuan per ton to 65 yuan per ton, and the spot price was 4469 yuan per ton [3][4]. - **Rubber**: The main rubber contract RU2509 rose 85 yuan per ton to 14895 yuan per ton, and the NR main contract rose 75 yuan per ton to 12750 yuan per ton [4]. - **Methanol**: The Taicang spot price was 2398 yuan per ton, the Inner Mongolia northern line price was 1990 yuan per ton, the CFR China price was 268 - 272 US dollars per ton, and the CFR Southeast Asia price was 328 - 333 US dollars per ton [7]. - **Polyolefin**: The mainstream price of East China drawstring was 7050 - 7150 yuan per ton. The profit of oil - based PP was - 400.04 yuan per ton, and the profit of coal - based PP production was 741.07 yuan per ton [7]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride**: The price of the East China PVC market increased. The price of calcium carbide - based type 5 material was 5000 - 5080 yuan per ton, and the mainstream reference price of ethylene - based material was 4950 - 53000 yuan per ton [7][8]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the spot price, futures price, basis, basis rate, and other data of various energy - chemical varieties on July 21 and July 18, including crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas, asphalt, etc [9]. 3.3 Market News - The lack of progress in US trade negotiations and the EU's latest sanctions have not weakened Russia's energy exports, leading to lingering concerns about crude oil demand in the market. The EU approved the 18th round of sanctions against Russia, including including the Indian Nayara Energy Company, which processes Russian crude oil, in the sanctions scope and further lowering the price cap on Russian crude oil [11]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Price**: The report presents the closing price charts of the main contracts of various energy - chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, etc [13][15][17]. - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: It shows the basis charts of the main contracts of various energy - chemical products from 2021 to 2025, such as crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, etc [26][28][32]. - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spread**: It provides the spread charts of inter - period contracts of various energy - chemical products, including fuel oil, asphalt, PTA, etc [39][41][44]. - **4.4 Inter - variety Spread**: It shows the spread and ratio charts between different varieties of energy - chemical products, such as the spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oil, the ratio of fuel oil to asphalt, etc [56][59]. - **4.5 Production Profit**: It presents the production profit charts of various energy - chemical products, including ethylene - based ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, etc [62][63][65]. 3.5 Team Member Introduction - The report introduces the members of the energy - chemical research team of Everbright Futures, including the assistant director and energy - chemical director Zhong Meiyan, and analysts such as Du Bingqin, Di Yilin, and Peng Haibo [68][69][70] 3.6 Contact Information - The company's address is Unit 703, 6th Floor, No. 729 Yanggao South Road, China (Shanghai) Pilot Free Trade Zone. The company's phone number is 021 - 80212222, the fax is 021 - 80212200, the customer service hotline is 400 - 700 - 7979, and the postal code is 200127 [73]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The lithium carbonate futures 2509 contract rose 2.47% to 67,960 yuan/ton yesterday. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate remained at 64,950 yuan/ton, the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate remained at 63,350 yuan/ton, and the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) remained at 57,420 yuan/ton. The warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 416 tons to 10,239 tons [3]. - Rio Tinto officially announced the suspension of the Mt Cattlin lithium mine in its 25Q2 production report. Zangge Mining's wholly - owned subsidiary, Zangge Potash, received a notice to stop lithium resource development activities on July 16 [3]. - In July, the production is expected to increase by 3.9% month - on - month to 81,150 tons, and the weekly production increased by 690 tons to 18,813 tons. Lithium imports in July are expected to change little compared to the previous month. The production schedule in July increased slightly month - on - month, and the consumption of lithium carbonate by the two major main materials increased by 3% month - on - month to about 80,800 tons. The weekly inventory increased by 1,827 tons to 142,620 tons [3]. - With the continuous fermentation of news, the continuous reduction of warehouse receipts, the continuous rise of lithium ore prices, and many market news disturbances, the price may still be stimulated to rise in the short term. Attention should be paid to the warehouse receipt inventory [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 2. Daily Data Monitoring - Futures: The closing price of the main contract was 67,960 yuan/ton, up 1,540 yuan from the previous day; the closing price of the continuous contract was 68,060 yuan/ton, up 1,460 yuan. The price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 693 US dollars/ton, up 8 US dollars [5]. - Lithium ore: The price of lithium mica (Li2O: 1.5% - 2.0%) was 910 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; the price of lithium mica (Li2O: 2.0% - 2.5%) was 1,465 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan [5]. - Lithium carbonate: The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5% battery - grade/domestic) remained at 64,950 yuan/ton, and the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate (99.2% industrial zero - grade/domestic) remained at 63,350 yuan/ton [5]. - Lithium hydroxide: The price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles/domestic) remained at 57,420 yuan/ton, and the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (micropowder) remained at 62,570 yuan/ton [5]. - Other products: The price of lithium hexafluorophosphate was 49,500 yuan/ton, down 400 yuan. Most prices of other products in the lithium - ion battery industry chain remained unchanged [5]. 3. Chart Analysis 3.1 Ore Prices - The report provides charts of the prices of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF), lithium mica (1.5% - 2.0%), lithium mica (2.0% - 2.5%), and lithium aluminum phosphate stone (6% - 7%) over time from 2024 to 2025 [6][8]. 3.2 Lithium and Lithium Salt Prices - Charts show the prices of metallic lithium, battery - grade lithium carbonate average price, industrial - grade lithium carbonate average price, battery - grade lithium hydroxide price, industrial - grade lithium hydroxide price, and lithium hexafluorophosphate price from 2024 to 2025 [12][14][16]. 3.3 Price Spreads - Charts present the price spreads between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade lithium carbonate and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, and other related price spreads from 2024 to 2025 [19][20][21]. 3.4 Precursor & Cathode Materials - Charts display the prices of ternary precursors, ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, lithium manganate, and cobalt acid lithium from 2024 to 2025 [23][26][29]. 3.5 Lithium Battery Prices - Charts show the prices of 523 square ternary cells, square lithium iron phosphate cells, cobalt acid lithium cells, and square lithium iron phosphate batteries from 2024 to 2025 [32][34]. 3.6 Inventory - Charts illustrate the downstream inventory, smelter inventory, and other环节 inventory of lithium carbonate from November 2024 to July 2025 [37][39]. 3.7 Production Costs - The chart shows the production costs and profits of lithium carbonate from different raw materials such as外购三元极片黑粉,外购磷酸铁锂极片黑粉,外购锂云母精矿, and外购锂辉石精矿 from 2024 to 2025 [41][42].

Group 1: Report Investment Ratings - The investment rating for cotton is "Oscillating Upward" [1] - The investment rating for sugar is "Range-Bound with an Uptrend" [1] Group 2: Core Views - **Cotton**: On Thursday, ICE U.S. cotton rose 0.41% to 68.84 cents per pound, and CF509 rose 2.19% to 14,250 yuan per ton. The main contract's open interest increased by 19,226 lots to 587,600 lots. The cotton arrival price in Xinjiang was 15,316 yuan per ton, up 101 yuan from the previous day, and the China Cotton Price Index for Grade 3128B was 15,354 yuan per ton, up 82 yuan. Globally, the new - year cotton supply - demand is relatively loose, and the U.S. cotton inventory - to - sales ratio is high. In China, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price has moved up slightly, with the main contract's open interest increasing rapidly and the 9 - 1 and 9 - 11 spreads strengthening. Currently, low cotton inventory and short - term weather factors are driving the price, but the strong expectation of a cotton bumper harvest and limited short - term demand improvement will restrict the upside. In the short term, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price may still have some upside space and large volatility. Attention should be paid to the arbitrage space of the 09 contract. A strategy of selling high - priced out - of - the - money call options and buying low - priced out - of - the - money put options can be considered [1] - **Sugar**: In June 2025, China's refined sugar production was 337,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 31.6%, and the cumulative production from January to June was 9.404 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.7%. The spot quotes of Guangxi and Yunnan sugar - making groups and some processing sugar factories have minor adjustments. The raw sugar price rose due to the rumor of a U.S. cola formula change, but there is no obvious short - term market driver. In the domestic market, the domestic sugar price quotes are slightly loose, the trading volume is average, the processing sugar factories' operating rate is high, and the market is highly concerned about the June import data. The market is treated as range - bound with an uptrend [1] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Daily Data Monitoring - **Cotton**: The 9 - 1 spread is 290, up 165; the main contract basis is 1,104, down 178. The Xinjiang spot price is 15,316 yuan per ton, up 101, and the national spot price is 15,354 yuan per ton, up 82 [2] - **Sugar**: The 9 - 1 spread is 169, up 3; the main contract basis is 252, down 20. The Nanning spot price is 6,050 yuan per ton, unchanged, and the Liuzhou spot price is 6,080 yuan per ton, unchanged [2] 2. Market Information - **Cotton**: On July 17, the cotton futures warehouse receipts were 9,585, down 58 from the previous day, with 223 valid forecasts. The cotton arrival prices in different regions were: Xinjiang 15,316 yuan per ton, Henan 15,411 yuan per ton, Shandong 15,302 yuan per ton, and Zhejiang 15,617 yuan per ton. The yarn comprehensive load was 49.9, unchanged, the yarn comprehensive inventory was 30.1, down 0.1, the short - fiber cloth comprehensive load was 48.1, unchanged, and the short - fiber cloth comprehensive inventory was 33.8, unchanged [3] - **Sugar**: On July 17, the sugar spot prices in Nanning and Liuzhou were unchanged at 6,050 yuan per ton and 6,080 yuan per ton respectively. The sugar futures warehouse receipts were 21,857, down 432 from the previous day, with 0 valid forecasts [3][4] 3. Chart Analysis - There are multiple charts for cotton and sugar, including the closing price, basis, spread, warehouse receipts, and price index of the main contracts, showing the historical data trends from 2021 - 2025 [6][14] 4. Research Team Introduction - Zhang Xiaojin is the director of resource product research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, focusing on the sugar industry [19] - Zhang Linglu is a resource product analyst at Everbright Futures Research Institute, responsible for futures varieties such as urea and soda ash glass [20] - Sun Chengzhen is a resource product analyst at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly engaged in fundamental research on cotton, cotton yarn, and ferroalloys [21]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints of the Report - On July 17, industrial silicon showed a volatile and slightly stronger trend, with the main contract 2509 closing at 8,745 yuan/ton, an intraday increase of 0.75%, and the open interest increasing by 1,200 lots to 381,000 lots. The reference price of Baichuan's industrial silicon spot was 9,111 yuan/ton, remaining stable compared to the previous trading day. The price of the lowest deliverable 421 grade rose to 8,700 yuan/ton, and the spot shifted from a premium to a discount of 15 yuan/ton. Polysilicon oscillated higher, with the main contract 2508 closing at 45,700 yuan/ton, an intraday increase of 7.5%, and the open interest decreasing by 819 lots to 70,964 lots. The price of N-type recycled polysilicon materials rose to 45,550 yuan/ton, and the price of the lowest deliverable silicon materials rose to 43,500 yuan/ton. The spot shifted from a premium to a discount of 200 yuan/ton to the main contract. The possible cancellation of subsidized electricity prices in Xinjiang and the non-restart of production capacity by large factories led to a continuous recovery of industrial silicon prices as costs increased. There are currently many disagreements in the market, and the overall transmission is limited, making it difficult for prices to continue to rise sharply. Guided by policies, the confidence of the photovoltaic industry chain to support prices has spread downstream. The futures market has followed the spot market, continuing to trade based on the logic of speculative demand. The polysilicon market is generally stronger than the industrial silicon market. Continued attention should be paid to the opportunity for the PS/SI price ratio to widen [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily Data Monitoring - **Industrial Silicon**: The futures settlement price of the main contract increased by 30 yuan/ton to 8,710 yuan/ton, and the near-month contract increased by 45 yuan/ton to 8,715 yuan/ton. The spot prices of various grades remained stable. The current lowest deliverable price was 8,700 yuan/ton, and the spot shifted from a premium of 3 yuan/ton to a discount of 15 yuan/ton. The industrial silicon warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 50,215 tons. The weekly inventory in the Guangzhou Futures Exchange decreased by 7,360 tons to 251,145 tons, and the total social inventory decreased by 4,800 tons to 437,900 tons [4] - **Polysilicon**: The futures settlement price of the main and near-month contracts both increased by 2,755 yuan/ton to 45,700 yuan/ton. The price of P-type polysilicon dense materials and recycled materials increased by 3,500 yuan/ton. The current lowest deliverable price increased by 2,000 yuan/ton to 45,500 yuan/ton, and the spot shifted from a premium of 555 yuan/ton to a discount of 200 yuan/ton. The polysilicon warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 2,780 tons. The weekly factory inventory increased by 0.3 million tons to 27.68 million tons, and the total social inventory increased by 0.3 million tons to 27.7 million tons [4] - **Organic Silicon**: The DMC price in the East China market remained stable at 11,200 yuan/ton, and the price of dimethyl silicone oil increased by 2,000 yuan/ton to 14,000 yuan/ton [4] - **Downstream Products**: The prices of silicon wafers and battery cells remained unchanged [4] Chart Analysis - **Industrial Silicon and Cost-side Prices**: Included charts on various grades of industrial silicon prices, grade price differences, regional price differences, electricity prices, silica prices, and silicon coal prices [5][7][10] - **Downstream Product Prices**: Included charts on DMC prices, organic silicon product prices, polysilicon prices, silicon wafer prices, battery cell prices, and component prices [12][14][16] - **Inventory**: Included charts on industrial silicon futures inventory, factory inventory, weekly industry inventory, weekly inventory changes, DMC weekly inventory, and polysilicon weekly inventory [19][22] - **Cost and Profit**: Included charts on the average cost and profit levels of main production areas, weekly cost and profit of industrial silicon, aluminum alloy processing industry profit, DMC cost and profit, and polysilicon cost and profit [25][27][33] Team Introduction - The non - ferrous metals team of Everbright Futures Research Institute consists of Zhan Dapeng, Wang Heng, and Zhu Xi. Zhan Dapeng is the director of non - ferrous research and a senior precious metals researcher. Wang Heng mainly studies aluminum and silicon, and Zhu Xi focuses on lithium and nickel [35][36]

光期研究 光期黑色：铁矿石基差及价差监测日报 2025 年 7 月 1 8 日 1 光大证券 2020 年 半 年 度 业 绩 E V E R B R I G H T S E C U R I T I E S 1.1 合约价差 | 期货合约 | 今日收盘价 | 上日收盘价 | 变化 | 合约价差 | 今日价差 | 上日价差 | 变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | I05 | 731.0 | 721.5 | 9.5 | I05-I09 | -54.5 | -51.5 | -3.0 | | I09 | 785.5 | 773.0 | 12.5 | I09-I01 | 33.0 | 31.5 | 1.5 | | I01 | 752.5 | 741.5 | 11.0 | I01-I05 | 21.5 | 20.0 | 1.5 | 图表1：09-01合约价差（单位：元/吨） 图表2：01-05合约价差（单位：元/吨） 0 50 100 150 200 01 01 02 03 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report Core Views - Copper: Overnight, LME copper rose 0.43% to $9,678/ton, and SHFE copper主力 rose 0.46% to 78,260 yuan/ton. The domestic spot import remained in a loss, but the loss narrowed. US retail sales in June alleviated concerns about consumer spending contraction. LME and Comex copper inventories increased, while domestic social copper inventories decreased. Copper demand showed a short - term recovery, but the off - season led to weak consumption. There is no significant positive factor for copper, and its price trend is unclear. A 50% copper tariff may cause short - term high volatility [1]. - Aluminum: Alumina,沪铝, and aluminum alloy all trended strongly. Guinea's policy on bauxite raised cost concerns. Domestic factors and low inventory levels supported the price. The near - month contract is expected to remain strong, and trading within the 20,000 - level range is recommended. The off - season effect is more obvious for aluminum alloy [1][2]. - Nickel: LME nickel rose 0.5% to $15,065/ton, and沪镍 rose 0.72% to 120,490 yuan/ton. LME and domestic SHFE nickel inventories decreased. In the stainless - steel industry, inventories of different series changed, and in the new - energy industry, demand and production increased slightly. The short - term trend is oscillatory, and overseas policy impacts should be watched out for [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Research Views - **Copper**: Overnight price increases in LME and SHFE copper. The US economic data influenced the market. Inventory changes were mixed, with an increase in overseas and a decrease in domestic social inventories. Demand recovered slightly but was still weak due to the off - season. The price trend is unclear, and a potential tariff may cause volatility [1]. - **Aluminum**: All aluminum - related products trended strongly. Cost concerns from Guinea's policy and domestic factors supported the price. The near - month contract is expected to be strong, and the off - season affects aluminum alloy more [1][2]. - **Nickel**: Price increases in LME and沪镍. Inventory decreases in LME and SHFE. Changes in stainless - steel and new - energy industry inventories and production. The short - term trend is oscillatory, and overseas policies may cause disturbances [2]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Copper**: Price changes in various copper products, including flat - water copper, scrap copper, etc. Inventory changes in LME, COMEX, and social inventories. Changes in LME0 - 3 premium, CIF提单, and active contract import profit and loss [3]. - **Lead**: Price decreases in various lead products. Inventory increases in LME and上期所. Changes in升贴水 and active contract import profit and loss [3]. - **Aluminum**: Price increases in无锡 and南海 aluminum quotes. Inventory changes in LME,上期所, and social inventories. Changes in升贴水 and active contract import profit and loss [4]. - **Nickel**: Price decreases in金川镍 and some nickel - related products. Inventory changes in LME,上期所, and social inventories. Changes in升贴水 and active contract import profit and loss [4]. - **Zinc**: The主力结算价 rose 0.3%. Inventory changes in上期所 and LME. Changes in升贴水 and active contract import profit and loss [5]. - **Tin**: The主力结算价 fell 0.7%. Inventory changes in上期所 and LME. Changes in升贴水 and active contract import profit and loss [5]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Spot升贴水**: Charts show the spot升贴 water trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [7][9][11]. - **SHFE Near - Far Month Spread**: Charts display the near - far month spread trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2020 - 2025 [13][16][17]. - **LME Inventory**: Charts present the LME inventory trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [19][21][23]. - **SHFE Inventory**: Charts show the SHFE inventory trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [26][28][30]. - **Social Inventory**: Charts display the social inventory trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series stainless steel from 2019 - 2025 [32][34][36]. - **Smelting Profit**: Charts show the copper concentrate index, rough copper processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless - steel 304 smelting profit rate from 2019 - 2025 [39][41][43]. 3.4 Team Introduction - The team includes Zhan Dapeng, a senior researcher with over a decade of experience, Wang Heng, who focuses on aluminum - silicon research, and Zhu Xi, who focuses on lithium - nickel research [46][47].