一、研究观点 有色商品日报 有色商品日报（2026 年 1 月 21 日） 有色商品日报 | 品 种 | 点评 | | --- | --- | | | 隔夜内外铜价震荡走弱，国内精炼铜现货进口持续亏损状态。宏观方面，昨晚日本在提 | | | 前选举预期叠加扩张性财政叙事下，长期国债惨遭大量抛售，引起市场紧张情绪；而在 | | | 国际市场特朗普声称必须拥有格陵兰岛，威胁要在达沃斯高级别会议前对多个欧洲国 | | | 家加征关税，其主张也引发欧盟主要国家的反噬，使得美国再现股债汇三杀局面。库存 | | | 方面，LME 库存增加 8875 吨至 156300 吨；Comex 库存增加 4277 吨至 496805 吨； | | 铜 | SHFE 铜仓单下降 4462 吨至 148193 吨，BC 铜下降 25 吨至 11261 吨。昨晚美金融市场 | | | 动荡下避险情绪增加，铜价随之调整。另外，当前国内消费进入淡季，铜消费转弱，累 | | | 库力度强于近两年，这加大了产业内的分歧，单从产业现状和基本面来去看也存在调 | | | 整的需求，不过需要注意的是资金对铜的支撑仍然存在，因此较难出现大幅回落行情， ...

光大期货金融期货日报 面来看，DR001 上行 5BP 至 1.37%，DR007 上行 2BP 至 1.49%。1 月 15 日 央行宣布一系列政策。一是利率下调，自 2026 年 1 月 19 日起，下调再贷款、 再贴现利率 0.25 个百分点。下调后，3 个月、6 个月和 1 年期支农支小再贷 款利率分别为 0.95%、1.15%和 1.25%，再贴现利率为 1.5%，抵押补充贷款利 率为 1.75%，专项结构性货币政策工具利率为 1.25%。二是工具优化。碳减排 工具纳入节能改造等直接减碳项目，科创再贷款覆盖研发投入高的民营中小 企业，受益领域扩大。三是额度扩容。科创再贷款扩至 1.2 万亿元（+4000 亿），支农支小再贷款+5000 亿且单设 1 万亿民营中小企额度，推动企业扩 大生产、技术改造与绿色转型，助力新质生产力培育。结构性降息提振相关 领域融资需求，有利于提振市场风险偏好。当前经济整体保持韧性的同时高 质量转型加速，同时物价水平已现积极变化，央行再次强调把物价合理回升 作为货币政策的重要考量，在物价数据持续回暖以及超长债供给预期较强背 景下，超长端债券偏弱态势预计延续，资金面合理充裕预期 ...

光大期货能化商品日报 | 品种 | 点评 周二油价收涨，其中 WTI 2 月合约收盘上涨 0.90 美元至 60.34 美 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 元/桶，涨幅 1.51%。布伦特 3 月合约收盘上涨 0.98 美元至 64.92 | | | | 美元/桶，涨幅 1.53%。SC2603 以 442.5 元/桶收盘，上涨 4 元/桶， | | | | 涨幅为 0.91%。特朗普以征收关税为筹码，威胁若不交出格陵兰 | | | | 岛就对多个欧洲国家采取关税措施，其争夺格陵兰岛的强硬行径 | | | | 引发金融市场震荡。对于美国收购格陵兰岛的企图持反对态度的 | | | 原油 | 欧洲多国领导人，对特朗普的关税威胁表示强烈抵制，并警告称 | 震荡 | | | 若美方实施关税措施，他们将予以反击。天气方面，本周晚些时 | | | | 候到下周将有寒冷天气席卷美国，这包括进入德克萨斯州的霜冻 | | | | 气温，昨天夜盘气价大幅拉升，原油亦担忧天气而呈现反弹。从 | | | | 时间窗口来看，需关注在严寒天气的持续性，以及是否引发冻井 | | | | 2 现象，预计 月初天 ...

Group 1: Index Performance - On January 20th, the Shanghai Composite Index had a change of -0.01%, closing at 4113.65 points with a trading volume of 1221.486 billion yuan; the Shenzhen Component Index had a change of -0.97%, closing at 14155.63 points with a trading volume of 1556.172 billion yuan [1] - The CSI 1000 Index changed -1.0% with a trading volume of 579.037 billion yuan, opening at 8271.78, closing at 8182.75, with a daily high of 8300.05 and a low of 8104.92 [1] - The CSI 500 Index changed -0.48% with a trading volume of 588.171 billion yuan, opening at 8307.64, closing at 8247.8, with a daily high of 8342.87 and a low of 8142.14 [1] - The SSE 50 Index changed -0.17% with a trading volume of 175.736 billion yuan, opening at 3077.94, closing at 3070.65, with a daily high of 3090.09 and a low of 3058.61 [1] Group 2: Sector Impact on Index - The CSI 1000 dropped 82.9 points from the previous closing price, and sectors such as machinery, power equipment, and computer significantly pulled the index down [3] - The CSI 500 dropped 40.15 points from the previous closing price, and sectors like machinery, national defense and military, and power equipment significantly pulled the index down [3] - The SSE 300 dropped 15.58 points from the previous closing price, with sectors such as banks, basic chemicals, and transportation significantly pulling the index up, while power equipment, communication, and electronics pulling it down [3] - The SSE 50 dropped 5.29 points from the previous closing price, with non - banking finance, banks, and basic chemicals pulling the index up, while computer, medicine and biology, and electronics pulling it down [3] Group 3: Stock Index Futures Basis and Annualized Opening Costs - For IM futures, IM00 had an average daily basis of -30.18, IM01 of -75.84, IM02 of -252.01, and IM03 of -411.61 [14] - For IC futures, IC00 had an average daily basis of -3.5, IC01 of -15.35, IC02 of -123.26, and IC03 of -229.56 [14] - For IF futures, IF00 had an average daily basis of -6.72, IF01 of -12.48, IF02 of -51.24, and IF03 of -107.52 [14] - For IH futures, IH00 had an average daily basis of 0.4, IH01 of 2.53, IH02 of -3.2, and IH03 of -33.07 [14]

有色商品日报 有色商品日报（2026 年 1 月 20 日） 一、研究观点 | 品 种 | 点评 | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 隔夜内外铜价震荡走高，国内精炼铜现货进口持续亏损状态。宏观方面，特朗普政府对 | | | | 格陵兰岛继续表现出浓厚兴趣，欧美相互加征关税引起不安；国内方面，2025 年中国 | | | | GDP 同比增长 5%，突破 140 万亿元关口，四季度 GDP 增长 4.5%，但部分经济数据表 | | | | 现不佳，市场或更加期待逆周期调节政策加码。库存方面，LME 库存增加 3850 吨至 | | | 铜 | 147425 吨；Comex 库存增加 3807 吨至 492528 吨；SHFE 铜仓单下降 7762 吨至 152655 | | | | 吨，BC 铜维持 11286 吨。需求方面，铜价再度走高，下游企业采购转为谨慎，成交以 | | | | 刚需为主。国内消费进入淡季，铜消费转弱，累库力度强于近两年，这加大了产业内的 | | | | 分歧，单从产业现状和基本面来去看存在调整的需求，但同时资金对铜的支撑力度仍 | | | | 然存在，因此较难出现持续 ...

黑色商品日报 黑色商品日报（2026 年 1 月 20 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 钢材 | 螺纹钢：昨日螺纹盘面小幅下跌，截止日盘螺纹 2605 合约收盘价格为 3140 元/吨，较上一交易收盘价格 下跌 23 元/吨，跌幅为 0.73%，持仓减少 2.74 万手。现货价格小幅下跌，成交回落，唐山地区迁安普方坯 | 窄幅震荡 | | | 价格下跌 10 元/吨至 2950 元/吨，杭州市场中天螺纹价格下跌 20 元/吨至 3230 元/吨，全国建材成交量 | | | | 8.52 万吨。据国家统计局数据，2025 年全国固定资产投资同比下降 3.8%，其中制造业投资同比增长 0.6%， | | | | 基础设施投资同比下降 2.2%，房地产开发投资比上年下降 17.2%。2025 年我国粗钢产量 9.61 亿吨，同比 | | | | 减少 4422 万吨，降幅 4.4%；2025 年我国生铁产量 8.36 亿吨，同比减少 2586 万吨，降幅 3%。12 月投资 | | | | 增速全面下行，粗钢及生铁产量也明显下降，钢材市场处于供需双弱 ...

光期研究 2026 年 1 月 2 0 日 1 光大证券 2020 年 半 年 度 业 绩 E V E R B R I G H T S E C U R I T I E S 1.1 合约价差 | 期货合约 | 今日收盘价 | 上日收盘价 | 变化 | 合约价差 | 今日价差 | 上日价差 | 变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | I05 | 794.0 | 812.0 | -18.0 | I05-I09 | 17.5 | 18.5 | -1.0 | | I09 | 776.5 | 793.5 | -17.0 | I09-I01 | 14.0 | -13.0 | 27.0 | | I01 | 762.5 | 806.5 | -44.0 | I01-I05 | -31.5 | -5.5 | -26.0 | 图表1：05-09合约价差（单位：元/吨） 图表2：01-05合约价差（单位：元/吨） 光期黑色：铁矿石基差及价差监测日报 p 2 -100 -50 0 50 100 150 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 01 2101 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - Corn: On Monday, corn futures prices were pressured downwards due to the decline of surrounding commodities. The prices in Northeast China remained stable, while those in North China were relatively strong. The overall view is that the corn market is in a weak and volatile state [2]. - Soybean Meal: The domestic protein meal market was weak, with rapeseed meal falling by more than 2%. The market is closely watching the pace of the resumption of Canadian rapeseed imports. The soybean meal market is expected to be volatile, with a bearish bias. The recommended strategy is a double - selling strategy [2]. - Oils: The BMD palm oil was almost unchanged. The domestic oil market showed a differentiated trend, with soybean oil and palm oil rising slightly and rapeseed oil falling by nearly 1%. The total inventory of the three major oils decreased month - on - month, and the market is expected to be volatile. The recommended strategy is to sell put options [2]. - Eggs: On Monday, egg futures prices pulled back. The spot price was relatively stable, but there was a risk of a short - term callback. The narrowing of breeding losses in the medium - to - long - term is not conducive to effective capacity reduction. The market is expected to be volatile [2]. - Pigs: On Monday, pig futures prices fell rapidly in the afternoon and then stabilized. The spot price rose. The market is expected to be volatile, and attention should be paid to the impact of the sentiment of breeders on supply and the impact of funds and market sentiment on the futures market [2][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 2. Market Information - Imported soybean arrivals in January decreased, and the weekly soybean crushing volume of oil mills was below 2 million tons. The estimated monthly soybean crushing volume in January was about 80 billion tons, an increase of about 7 billion tons year - on - year and about 9 billion tons more than the average of the past three years [4]. - On January 16, the CNF quotes for US soybeans for February and March shipments were $473/ton, $25 - 29/ton higher than Brazilian soybeans. The landed duty - paid cost in South China was 4,183 yuan/ton, $558 - 589/ton higher than Brazilian soybeans [4]. - In December 2025, the crude steel output was 68.18 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 10.3% and a month - on - month decrease of 2.4%. The annual output was 960.81 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.4%. The steel output in December was 115.31 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.8% and a month - on - month decrease of 0.5%. The annual output was 1,446.12 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.1% [4]. - The national grain output in 2025 was 714.88 million tons, an increase of 8.38 million tons or 1.2% year - on - year. Wheat output was basically flat, corn output increased by 2.1%, and soybean output increased by 1.3% [5]. - The GDP in 2025 was 14,018.79 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.0%. The added value of the primary, secondary, and tertiary industries increased by 3.9%, 4.5%, and 5.4% respectively [5]. 3. Variety Spreads - 3.1 Contract Spreads: The report presents contract spreads such as corn 5 - 9, corn starch 5 - 9, soybeans 5 - 9, etc., but no specific data or analysis is provided [6][7][9] - 3.2 Contract Basis: The report shows the contract basis of various agricultural products, including corn, corn starch, soybeans, etc., but no specific data or analysis is provided [16][17][20]

工业硅日报 工业硅日报 工业硅&多晶硅日报（2026 年 1 月 20 日） 一、研究观点 点评 19 日工业硅震荡偏强，主力 2605 收于 8845/吨，日内涨幅 1.6%，持仓减 仓 3702 手至 23.5 万手。百川工业硅现货参考价 9628 元/吨，较上一交易 日持稳。最低交割品价格持稳在 8850 元/吨，现货升水收至 5 元/吨。多 晶硅震荡偏强，主力 2605 收于 50505 元/吨，日内涨幅 0.63%，持仓减仓 1649 手至 44571 手；百川多晶硅 N 型复投硅料价格降至 55000 元/吨， 最低交割品硅料价格 55000 元/吨，现货升水收至 4495 元/吨。西南除自 备电厂和一体化供应以外全面停炉，新疆检修结束出现复产，中和供给 端减量。下游减产导致工业硅整体上行受挫。多晶硅供需失衡压力叠加 反垄断监管施压，市场交易逻辑由消息炒作转会基本面视角，硅料强势 挺价底气难以延续。近期出口退税取消引发海外订单激增、大幅缓解组 件排产压力，因硅片环节原料积压，增量未能传导至硅料环节，晶硅端 减产规模将进一步扩大。预计短期盘面回涨无力、平稳运行，现货报价 或逐步失去支撑。 请务必阅读 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Yesterday, the lithium carbonate futures contract 2605 dropped 3.83% to 147,260 yuan/ton. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 7,000 yuan/ton to 151,000 yuan/ton, the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate fell 7,000 yuan/ton to 147,500 yuan/ton, and the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) declined 5,000 yuan/ton to 144,000 yuan/ton. The warehouse receipt inventory increased by 240 tons to 27,698 tons [3]. - On the supply side, the weekly output increased by 115 tons to 22,535 tons. In January 2026, the lithium carbonate production is expected to decline 1.2% month - on - month to 97,970 tons. On the demand side, in January 2026, the production of ternary materials is expected to drop 5% month - on - month to 78,180 tons; the production of lithium iron phosphate is expected to fall 10% month - on - month to 363,400 tons; the production of ternary power batteries is expected to decrease 6.15% month - on - month to 28.7 GWh, the production of lithium iron power batteries is expected to decline 9.77% month - on - month to 90.01 GWh, and the production of lithium iron energy - storage batteries is expected to increase 0.99% month - on - month to 63.15 GWh. On the inventory side, the weekly social inventory of lithium carbonate increased by 337 tons to 109,942 tons [3]. - Due to capital disturbances, the lithium carbonate price has significantly corrected recently. If the basis fails to remain strong, it may lead to a spiral decline in spot and futures prices. In the absence of a clear negative feedback in demand, the main strategy is to go long on dips, while being vigilant about increased market volatility and position disturbances, and pay attention to supply - side disturbances (overseas and in Jiangxi) and right - hand opportunities [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Data Monitoring - In the futures market, the closing price of the main contract increased by 1,280 yuan/ton to 163,220 yuan/ton, and the closing price of the continuous contract decreased by 4,440 yuan/ton to 161,900 yuan/ton. The price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) dropped by 40 US dollars/ton to 2,060 US dollars/ton, and the prices of various types of lithium mica and lithium - phosphate - aluminum ore also declined [5]. - The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 4,000 yuan/ton to 159,000 yuan/ton, and the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate fell by 4,000 yuan/ton to 155,500 yuan/ton. The prices of different types of lithium hydroxide and lithium hexafluorophosphate also showed varying degrees of decline [5]. - The prices of some ternary precursors increased, while the prices of some ternary materials remained unchanged. The prices of different types of lithium iron phosphate decreased, and the price of manganese - acid lithium (power type) increased by 500 yuan/ton [5]. - The prices of some types of battery cells and batteries increased slightly, while others remained unchanged [5]. 3.2 Chart Analysis - **Ore Prices**: Charts show the price trends of lithium spodumene concentrate, different types of lithium mica, and lithium - phosphate - aluminum ore from 2024 to 2026 [6][9]. - **Lithium and Lithium Salt Prices**: Charts display the price trends of metal lithium, battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium hydroxide, and lithium hexafluorophosphate from 2024 to 2026 [12][14][17]. - **Price Spreads**: Charts present the price spreads between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, and other related price spreads from 2024 to 2026 [19][20][21]. - **Precursors & Cathode Materials**: Charts show the price trends of ternary precursors, ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, manganese - acid lithium, and cobalt - acid lithium from 2024 to 2026 [25][27][30]. - **Lithium Battery Prices**: Charts display the price trends of 523 square ternary battery cells, square lithium iron phosphate battery cells, cobalt - acid lithium battery cells, and square lithium iron phosphate batteries from 2024 to 2026 [32][36]. - **Inventory**: Charts show the inventory trends of downstream, smelters, and other links of lithium carbonate from May 2025 to January 2026 [38][40]. - **Production Costs**: The chart presents the production profit trends of lithium carbonate from different raw materials such as外购三元极片黑粉,外购磷酸铁锂极片黑粉,外购锂云母精矿, and外购锂辉石精矿 from 2024 to 2026 [43][44].