一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 钢材 | 螺纹钢：昨天螺纹盘面延续窄幅波动，截止日盘螺纹 2605 合约收盘价格为 3169 元/吨，较上一交易收盘 | 窄幅整理 | | | 价格持平，持仓增加 12.2 万手。现货价格稳中有涨，成交回落，唐山地区迁安普方坯价格持平于 2990 元 | | | | /吨，杭州市场中天螺纹价格上涨 10 元/吨至 3240 元/吨，全国建材成交量 8.98 万吨。据钢谷网数据，本 | | | | 周全国建材产量回落 8.3 万吨至 355.71 万吨，社库回落 23.5 万吨至 573.21 万吨，厂库回落 22.38 万吨至 | | | | 309.53 万吨，建材表需回升 11.93 万吨至 401.59 万吨。建材产量继续回落，库存降幅扩大，表需回升，数 | | | | 据表现偏强。近期部分地区工程赶工，螺纹需求仍维持一定韧性，在产量下降的情况下螺纹库存持续下降， | | | | 部分地区螺纹出现规格短缺的现象，对价格走势形成一定支撑。不过当前市场已处于消费淡季，后期需求 | | | | 将面临 2 个月左右的下 ...

| 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周三尿素现货价格继续坚挺运行，部分地区市场价格仍有10元/吨上调幅度。山东、 | | | | 河南地区市场价格分别为1680元/吨、1690元/吨，日环比分别维持稳定、上涨10元/ | | | | 吨。基本面来看，近期尿素装置波动明显，行业日产量昨日19.25万吨，日环比增0. | | | | 24万吨（上一日日产数据有修正）。后续气头企业开工下降仍将带动尿素供应水平 | | | | 出现波动。需求端跟进情绪依旧积极，农业追肥需求释放、复合肥生产水平提升以 | | | 尿素 | 及淡储需求持续跟进都给现货成交提供支撑，昨日主流地区尿素产销率均攀升至100 | 坚挺 震荡 | | | %以上，个别地区超200%，本周尿素企业库存下降5.38%，继续支撑厂家涨价心态。 | | | | 后续若价格持续上涨或仍将限制中下游采购情绪，故现货高成交持续度仍需持续跟 | | | | 踪。整体来看，近期尿素企业收单良好，出货顺畅，短时尿素需求支撑仍在，期、 | | | | 现价格延续坚挺震荡趋势。关注主力合约移仓换月情况、气头企业开工变化、现货 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - All the analyzed energy and chemical products, including crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, polyester, rubber, methanol, polyolefins, and polyvinyl chloride, are rated as "oscillating" [1][2][3][5][7] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Crude Oil**: On Wednesday, oil prices fluctuated and closed higher. The EIA inventory report showed an increase in US crude, gasoline, and distillate inventories last week. Geopolitical conflicts have limited impact on oil prices, and the overall oil price continues to oscillate [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: On Wednesday, the main fuel oil contracts on the SHFE closed down. The east - west arbitrage window closure may reduce the inflow of low - sulfur arbitrage cargoes to Singapore in December, but the inventory in Singapore remains sufficient. The high - sulfur fuel oil market in December is also expected to have sufficient supply. The price of fuel oil is expected to remain weak due to the relatively pessimistic view on oil prices in December [2]. - **Asphalt**: On Wednesday, the main asphalt contract on the SHFE closed up. In November, the supply and demand of asphalt were both weak. In December, supply will further decrease, and winter storage demand will gradually start. The asphalt price is expected to oscillate at a low level in the short term [2][3]. - **Polyester**: The prices of TA, EG, and PX closed down on Wednesday. At the end of the year, downstream demand is gradually weakening, and the cost of PX is under pressure. TA prices are expected to oscillate with costs, and ethylene glycol prices are expected to adjust widely [3]. - **Rubber**: On Wednesday, the main rubber contracts closed down. The rubber market has a weak supply - demand situation, and the rubber price is expected to oscillate. The price of butadiene rubber is expected to be strong in the short term and return to normal in the medium term [3][5]. - **Methanol**: On Wednesday, the spot price of methanol in Taicang was 2122 yuan/ton. In December, domestic production is expected to decline slightly, and imports will fall from a high level. The overall demand for olefins is expected to increase. Methanol prices are expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [5]. - **Polyolefins**: On Wednesday, the prices of polyolefins were at a low level. In December, supply will increase, and demand will weaken. If the crude oil price remains stable, polyolefins will tend to oscillate at the bottom [5][7]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride**: On Wednesday, the PVC market price oscillated weakly. In December, production will continue to increase, and downstream demand is expected to decline. However, due to factors such as the narrowing of the hedging space and the removal of export restrictions, the PVC price may tend to oscillate at the bottom [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: WTI January contract closed up 0.31 dollars to 58.95 dollars/barrel, a 0.53% increase; Brent February contract closed up 0.22 dollars to 62.67 dollars/barrel, a 0.35% increase; SC2601 closed at 450.9 yuan/barrel, up 1.6 yuan/barrel, a 0.36% increase. US crude, gasoline, and distillate inventories increased last week, while the Cushing crude inventory decreased. Refinery processing volume and capacity utilization increased. Geopolitical conflicts have limited impact on oil prices [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: The main fuel oil contracts on the SHFE closed down. The east - west arbitrage window closure may reduce the inflow of low - sulfur arbitrage cargoes to Singapore in December, but the inventory in Singapore remains sufficient. The high - sulfur fuel oil market in December is also expected to have sufficient supply [2]. - **Asphalt**: The main asphalt contract on the SHFE closed up. In November, the supply and demand of asphalt were both weak. In December, supply will further decrease, and winter storage demand will gradually start [2][3]. - **Polyester**: The prices of TA, EG, and PX closed down on Wednesday. At the end of the year, downstream demand is gradually weakening, and the cost of PX is under pressure. TA prices are expected to oscillate with costs, and ethylene glycol prices are expected to adjust widely [3]. - **Rubber**: The main rubber contracts closed down. The rubber market has a weak supply - demand situation, and the rubber price is expected to oscillate. The price of butadiene rubber is expected to be strong in the short term and return to normal in the medium term [3][5]. - **Methanol**: The spot price of methanol in Taicang was 2122 yuan/ton. In December, domestic production is expected to decline slightly, and imports will fall from a high level. The overall demand for olefins is expected to increase. Methanol prices are expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [5]. - **Polyolefins**: The prices of polyolefins were at a low level. In December, supply will increase, and demand will weaken. If the crude oil price remains stable, polyolefins will tend to oscillate at the bottom [5][7]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride**: The PVC market price oscillated weakly. In December, production will continue to increase, and downstream demand is expected to decline. However, due to factors such as the narrowing of the hedging space and the removal of export restrictions, the PVC price may tend to oscillate at the bottom [7]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the basis data of various energy and chemical products on December 3, 2025, including spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, price changes, and the position of the latest basis rate in historical data [8]. 3.3 Market News - The expectation that US and Western sanctions on Russian crude oil exports cannot be lifted in the short term has supported oil prices. The EIA inventory report showed an increase in US crude, gasoline, and distillate inventories last week [10]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: The report presents the closing price charts of main contracts for various energy and chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, LPG, PTA, ethylene glycol, short - fiber, LLDPE, polypropylene, PVC, methanol, styrene, 20 - grade rubber, natural rubber, synthetic rubber, European line container shipping, p - xylene, and bottle chips [12][13][14][15][17][18][20][22][25][26][28]. - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: The report shows the basis charts of main contracts for various energy and chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, natural rubber, 20 - grade rubber, p - xylene, synthetic rubber, and bottle chips [29][33][34][36][37][38]. - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: The report provides the spread charts of inter - period contracts for various energy and chemical products, including fuel oil, asphalt, European line container shipping index, PTA, ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, and natural rubber [42][44][47][50][52][54][56]. - **4.4 Inter - commodity Spreads**: The report shows the spread and ratio charts of inter - commodity contracts for various energy and chemical products, including crude oil (internal - external spread, B - W spread), fuel oil (high - low sulfur spread, fuel oil/asphalt ratio), BU/SC ratio, ethylene glycol - PTA spread, PP - LLDPE spread, and natural rubber - 20 - grade rubber spread [58][60][63]. - **4.5 Production Profits**: The report presents the production profit charts of LLDPE and PP [66]. 3.5 Team Member Introduction - The report introduces the members of the energy and chemical research team of Everbright Futures, including Zhong Meiyan, Du Bingqin, Di Yilin, and Peng Haibo, along with their positions, educational backgrounds, honors, and professional experiences [71][72][73][74].

光大期货金融期货日报 光大期货金融期货日报（2025 年 12 月 04 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 昨日，A 股市场震荡回调，TMT 和房地产板块跌幅居前。Wind 全 A 下跌 | | | | 0.72%，成交额 1.68 万亿元，中证 1000 指数下跌 0.89%，中证 500 指数下跌 | | | | 0.62%，沪深 300 指数下跌 0.51%，上证 50 指数下跌 0.52%。随着 6 月以来的 | | | | 流动性行情告一段落，市场重新聚焦基本面逻辑，目前以 AI 为首的新质生 | | | | 产力题材普遍对未来三年的增长水平存在乐观预期，尤其是科技领域的上游 | | | | 硬件制造环节，供需错配下涨价预期明显，中期盈利能力可观。但是，对应 | | | 股指 | 题材自 6 月以来涨幅均较大，临近年底缺乏进一步事件性催化，自 11 月逐 | 震荡 | | | 渐进入震荡行情。另一方面，以消费和周期题材为首的传统经济领域仍然处 | | | | 在震荡复苏的过程中，尽管存在一些补涨的逻辑，但短期很难进入基本面牛 | | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The report presents the daily data tracking of stock index futures on December 4, 2025, including the index trends of major stock indices, the impact of sector fluctuations on the indices, the basis and annualized opening costs of stock index futures, and the point differences and annualized costs of futures contract roll - overs [1] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Index Trends - On December 3, 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.51% to close at 3878.0 points with a trading volume of 647.167 billion yuan; the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.78% to close at 12955.25 points with a trading volume of 1022.796 billion yuan [1] - The CSI 1000 Index fell 0.89% with a trading volume of 335.034 billion yuan, opening at 7312.67, closing at 7248.27, with a daily high of 7324.21 and a low of 7220.98 [1] - The CSI 500 Index fell 0.62% with a trading volume of 251.309 billion yuan, opening at 7044.86, closing at 6996.36, with a daily high of 7064.16 and a low of 6975.09 [1] - The SSE 50 Index fell 0.52% with a trading volume of 85.495 billion yuan, opening at 2976.11, closing at 2963.08, with a daily high of 2983.61 and a low of 2957.79 [1] - The SSE 300 Index fell 0.51% with a trading volume of 374.486 billion yuan, opening at 4554.59, closing at 4531.05, with a daily high of 4569.82 and a low of 4523.5 [1] 3.2 Impact of Sector Fluctuations on Indices - The CSI 1000 Index dropped 64.91 points from the previous closing price, with sectors such as Media, Electronics, and Computer significantly pulling the index down [2] - The CSI 500 Index dropped 43.94 points from the previous closing price, with sectors such as Machinery significantly pulling the index up, and sectors such as Power Equipment, Computer, and Electronics pulling the index down [2] - The SSE 300 Index dropped 23.28 points from the previous closing price, with sectors such as Non - Ferrous Metals significantly pulling the index up, and sectors such as Non - Banking Finance, Power Equipment, and Banking pulling the index down [2] - The SSE 50 Index dropped 15.39 points from the previous closing price, with sectors such as Non - Ferrous Metals significantly pulling the index up, and sectors such as Food and Beverage, Non - Banking Finance, and Banking pulling the index down [2] 3.3 Basis and Annualized Opening Costs of Stock Index Futures - For IM contracts, IM00 had an average daily basis of - 63.93, IM01 of - 136.48, IM02 of - 289.28, and IM03 of - 526.85 [13] - For IC contracts, IC00 had an average daily basis of - 55.35, IC01 of - 110.49, IC02 of - 225.35, and IC03 of - 432.23 [13] - For IF contracts, IF00 had an average daily basis of - 18.54, IF01 of - 34.56, IF02 of - 55.17, and IF03 of - 103.62 [13] - For IH contracts, IH00 had an average daily basis of - 7.43, IH01 of - 13.16, IH02 of - 14.61, and IH03 of - 28.05 [13] 3.4 Point Differences and Annualized Costs of Futures Contract Roll - overs - The report provides the point differences and annualized costs for different contract combinations (e.g., IM00 - 01, IM00 - 02) and their 15 - minute average values for IM, IC, IF, and IH contracts [22][24][25][27]

软商品日报 光大期货软商品日报（2025 年 12 月 3 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周二，ICE 美棉下跌 0.03%，报收 64.61 美分/磅，CF601 环比上涨 0.29%，报收 13800 | | | | 元/吨，主力合约持仓环比下降 2787 手至 54.42 万手，棉花 3128B 现货价格指数 | | | | 14590 元/吨，较前一日上涨 20 元/吨。国内市场方面，宏观层面仍有扰动，有报 | | | | 道称美联储下一任主席已经确定，其态度应更偏鸽派，美联储 12 月降息 25BP 概 | | | | 率较高，关注是否会有变动。美棉出口方面，最新一期美棉出口周报显示美棉出 | | | 棉花 | 口净签约量当周值环比下降，拖累美棉价格。国内市场方面，昨夜郑棉期价重心 | 震荡 | | | 环比小幅下移。我们认为宏观有利好预期、棉花需求相对稳定、年度供需压力不 | | | | 大是近期行情主要驱动因素。但需要看到的是，当前多空因素均有，供应压力仍 | | | | 存，若价格持续上行，上方还有套保压力。展望未来，短期 ...

股指期货日度数据跟踪 2025-12-03 12 月 02 日，上证综指涨跌幅-0.42%，收于 3897.71 点，成交额 6274.41 亿元，深成指数涨跌幅-0.68%，收于 13056.7 点，成交额 9659.9 亿元。 中证 1000 指数涨跌幅-1.0%，成交额 3202.19 亿元，其中开盘价 7364.2，收盘价 7313.18，当日最高价 7364.2，最低价 7299.27； 中证 500 指数涨跌幅-0.87%，成交额 2473.6 亿元，其中开盘价 7084.8，收盘价 7040.3，当日最高价 7085.3，最低价 7022.61； 沪深 300 指数涨跌幅-0.48%，成交额 3643.66 亿元，其中开盘价 4571.91，收盘价 4554.33，当日最高价 4575.49，最低价 4539.43； 上证 50 指数涨跌幅-0.51%，成交额 791.66 亿元，其中开盘价 2992.38，收盘价 2978.47，当日最高价 2994.71，最低价 2970.95。 数据来源：Wind，光期研究所 数据来源：Wind，光期研究所 二、板块涨跌对指数影响 中证 1000 较前收盘 ...

黑色商品日报 黑色商品日报（2025 年 12 月 3 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 钢材 | 螺纹钢：昨天螺纹盘面窄幅波动，截止日盘螺纹 2601 合约收盘价格为 3133 元/吨，较上一交易收盘价格 下跌 1 元/吨，跌幅为 0.03%，持仓减少 10.2 万手。现货价格基本平稳，成交回落，唐山地区迁安普方坯 | 窄幅整理 | | | 价格持平于 2990 元/吨，杭州市场中天螺纹价格持平于 3230 元/吨，全国建材成交量 9.82 万吨。近期部分 | | | | 地区工程赶工，螺纹需求仍维持一定韧性，在产量下降的情况下螺纹库存已连续七周下降，库存总量矛盾 | | | | 得到明显缓解，部分地区出现规格短缺的现象，对价格走势形成一定支撑。而年末市场对稳地产政策预期 | | | | 也有所升温，对市场情绪有一定提振。不过当前市场已处于消费淡季，后期需求将面临 2 个月左右的下降 | | | | 周期，需求对价格的驱动依然不足。预计短期螺纹盘面仍窄幅整理运行为主。 | | | 铁矿石 | 昨日铁矿石期货主力合约 i2601 价格冲高回落，收 ...

光期研究 光期黑色：铁矿石基差及价差监测日报 2025 年 1 2 月 3 日 1 光大证券 2020 年 半 年 度 业 绩 E V E R B R I G H T S E C U R I T I E S 1.1 合约价差 | 期货合约 | 今日收盘价 | 上日收盘价 | 变化 | 合约价差 | 今日价差 | 上日价差 | 变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | I05 | 775.5 | 777.5 | -2.0 | I05-I09 | 24.0 | 25.0 | -1.0 | | I09 | 751.5 | 752.5 | -1.0 | I09-I01 | -49.0 | -48.5 | -0.5 | | I01 | 800.5 | 801.0 | -0.5 | I01-I05 | 25.0 | 23.5 | 1.5 | 图表1：05-09合约价差（单位：元/吨） 图表2：01-05合约价差（单位：元/吨） p 2 -100 -50 0 50 100 150 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 01 2101-2105 ...

1. 昨日碳酸锂期货主力合约 2605 合约跌 0.72%至 96560 元/吨。现货价格方面，电池级碳酸锂平均价 上涨 50 元/吨至 94400 元/吨，工业级碳酸锂平均价上涨 50 元/吨至 91950 元/吨，电池级氢氧化锂 （粗颗粒）上涨 100 元/吨至 82580 元/吨。仓单方面，昨日仓单库存增加 770 吨至 8992 吨。 2. 消息面，江西省宜丰县圳口里-奉新县枧下窝锂矿非油气采矿权变更登记(含续期)进入受理阶段。 3. 供应端，周度产量环比减少 265 吨至 21865 吨，其中锂辉石提锂环比增加 20 吨至 13364 吨，锂云母 产量环比增加 50 吨至 3021 吨，盐湖提锂环比减少 400 吨至 3225 吨，回收料提锂环比增加 65 吨至 2245 吨；据 SMM 数据，12 月预计供应环比增加 3%至 9.8 万吨。需求端，周度三元材料产量环比 增加 259 吨至 19261 吨，库存环比增加 71 吨至 19361 吨；磷酸铁锂产量环比增加 4690 吨至 95713 吨，库存环比增加 1757 吨至 104341 吨；据 SMM 数据，12 月预计三元材料产量环比下降 ...