1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term trend of steel products is expected to be weakly volatile. The export of steel products shows strong resilience, but there is still significant pressure on supply and demand, and macro - level disturbances are increasing [1]. - The price of iron ore is expected to continue to move in a volatile manner in the short term. Although the supply has decreased, the demand remains at a relatively high level, presenting a situation of mixed long and short factors [1]. - The coking coal and coke markets are expected to have a wide - range volatile operation in the short term. The procurement attitude of enterprises is cautious, and the driving force for price increases is insufficient, but the short - term demand has certain support [1]. - Manganese silicon and silicon iron are expected to have a weakly volatile trend in the short term. The fundamental driving force is limited, and they mainly follow the fluctuations of the black sector. Attention should be paid to market sentiment changes and the new round of steel tenders [1][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Steel Products**: The closing price of the rebar 2601 contract was 3083 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton or 0.64% from the previous trading day, with an increase in positions of 26,600 lots. Spot prices slightly declined, and the trading volume was low. In September 2025, China's steel exports reached 10.465 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 10.0%. From January to September, the cumulative steel exports were 87.955 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.2% [1]. - **Iron Ore**: The closing price of the iron ore futures main contract i2601 was 804.5 yuan/ton, up 9.5 yuan/ton or 1.2% from the previous trading day. Port spot prices rose. The global, Australian, and Brazilian shipments decreased. The iron - making output decreased by 0.23 tons to 2.4154 million tons. The steel mill profit margin continued to decline slightly, and the port inventory increased while the steel mill inventory decreased [1]. - **Coking Coal**: The closing price of the coking coal 2601 contract was 1146 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton or 1.29%, with a decrease in positions of 7044 lots. Some coal mine production slightly recovered, and the procurement enthusiasm of traders slowed down. The subsequent maintenance of steel mills may expand [1]. - **Coke**: The closing price of the coke 2601 contract was 1642.5 yuan/ton, down 24 yuan/ton or 1.44%, with an increase in positions of 569 lots. The first - round price increase of coke was implemented, and the profit of coke enterprises was slightly repaired. Steel mills purchased on demand, and some had production restrictions and maintenance [1]. - **Manganese Silicon**: On Monday, the manganese silicon futures price was weakly volatile. The main contract was reported at 5746 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 0.24%. The supply decreased slightly from the high level, and the demand was limited. The cost of manganese ore was relatively stable, and the inventory of sample enterprises increased [1][3]. - **Silicon Iron**: On Monday, the silicon iron futures price was volatile and weak. The main contract was reported at 5406 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 0.95%. The cost support was weak, the production enterprise's operating rate was relatively high, and the inventory of sample enterprises increased [3]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Contract Spread**: For example, the 1 - 5 month spread of rebar was - 56.0, unchanged from the previous day; the 1 - 5 month spread of hot - rolled coil was - 13.0, down 6.0 from the previous day [4]. - **Basis**: For example, the basis of the rebar 01 contract was 137.0, up 10.0 from the previous day; the basis of the iron ore 01 contract was 41.0, down 0.7 from the previous day [4]. - **Spot**: For example, the spot price of rebar in Shanghai was 3220.0, down 10.0 from the previous day; the spot price of PB powder at Rizhao Port was 796.0, up 6.0 from the previous day [4]. - **Profit and Spread**: For example, the rebar disk profit was - 108.7, down 23.7 from the previous day; the hot - rolled coil - rebar spread was 178.0, down 4.0 from the previous day [4]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Main Contract Price**: Charts show the closing prices of main contracts of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and silicon iron from 2020 to 2025 [6][7][8][9][11][14]. - **Main Contract Basis**: Charts show the basis of main contracts of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and silicon iron [16][17][18][20][21][22][23]. - **Inter - period Contract Spread**: Charts show the spreads of different contracts of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and silicon iron [25][28][29][30][31][32][33][34][35][37][39]. - **Inter - variety Contract Spread**: Charts show the spreads between different varieties such as the hot - rolled coil - rebar spread, rebar - iron ore ratio, rebar - coke ratio, coke - iron ore ratio, coking coal - coke ratio, and manganese silicon - silicon iron difference [40][41][42][44]. - **Rebar Profit**: Charts show the disk profit, long - process calculated profit, and short - process calculated profit of the rebar main contract from 2020 to 2025 [45][46][48][50]. 3.4 Black Research Team Member Introduction - Qiu Yuecheng is the assistant director of the research institute and the director of black research at Everbright Futures, with nearly 20 years of experience in the steel industry [52]. - Zhang Xiaojin is the director of resource product research at Everbright Futures, a trainer for thermal coal at the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange [52]. - Liu Xi is a black researcher at Everbright Futures, good at fundamental supply - demand analysis based on industrial chain data [52]. - Zhang Chunjie is a black researcher at Everbright Futures, with experience in combining financial theory with industrial operations [53].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The price of the lithium carbonate futures 2511 contract dropped 1.12% to 72,280 yuan/ton yesterday. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 450 yuan/ton to 73,100 yuan/ton, and the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate fell by 450 yuan/ton to 70,850 yuan/ton. The price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) dropped 150 yuan/ton to 73,300 yuan/ton. The warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 5,951 tons to 36,718 tons [3]. - Jinyuan Co., Ltd. stated that its Baqiancuo Salt Lake lithium extraction project is in the trial - production stage, and the Argentine Carlo project is still in the exploration phase [3]. - The overall supply is expected to increase month - on - month. The weekly production in China continued to increase slightly, with the lithium carbonate production in October increasing by 3% month - on - month to about 90,000 tons. In terms of imports and exports, the amount of lithium carbonate exported from Chile decreased in September, which may have a certain but minor impact on the imported lithium salts in October. On the demand side, October is still in the peak season. The consumption of lithium carbonate by the two major main materials increased by 2% month - on - month to 104,800 tons, and the total consumption of lithium carbonate by cathode + electrolyte + others increased by 7% month - on - month to 123,800 tons. In terms of inventory, the total inventory continued to decline to 135,000 tons, and the total inventory turnover days decreased significantly. From the perspective of weekly inventory flow, the downstream and intermediate links reduced inventory, while the upstream accumulated inventory [3]. - The peak demand season, lithium carbonate inventory reduction, and the firm price of lithium ore support the price. However, there are still expectations of project restart, and with the increase in overseas imports, the tight domestic balance will gradually be alleviated. In the short term, the price will fluctuate, and macro - disturbances should be watched out for [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Data Monitoring - **Futures**: The closing price of the main contract was 72,280 yuan/ton, down 460 yuan from October 10; the closing price of the continuous contract was 71,800 yuan/ton, down 900 yuan [5]. - **Lithium Ore**: The price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 829 US dollars/ton, down 10 US dollars; the price of lithium mica (Li2O: 1.5% - 2.0%) was 1,055 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan; the price of lithium mica (Li2O: 2.0% - 2.5%) was 1,765 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan; the price of amblygonite (Li2O: 6% - 7%) was 5,980 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan; the price of amblygonite (Li2O: 7% - 8%) was 7,070 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan [5]. - **Lithium Carbonate and Lithium Hydroxide**: The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5% battery - grade/domestic) was 73,100 yuan/ton, down 450 yuan; the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate (99.2% industrial zero - grade/domestic) was 70,850 yuan/ton, down 450 yuan; the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles/domestic) was 73,330 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan; the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (micropowder) was 78,300 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan; the price of industrial - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles/domestic) was 68,100 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan; the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (CIF China, Japan, and South Korea) was 9.48 US dollars/kg, unchanged [5]. - **Lithium Hexafluorophosphate**: The price was 71,500 yuan/ton, up 3,000 yuan [5]. - **Price Spreads**: The price spread between battery - grade lithium carbonate and industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 2,250 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price spread between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate was 230 yuan/ton, up 300 yuan; the difference between CIF China, Japan, and South Korea battery - grade lithium hydroxide and SMM battery - grade lithium hydroxide was - 6,015.36 yuan/ton, up 111 yuan [5]. - **Precursors and Cathode Materials**: The price of ternary precursor 523 (polycrystalline/power type) was 98,150 yuan/ton, up 2,400 yuan; the price of ternary precursor 523 (single - crystal/consumer type) was 90,525 yuan/ton, up 1,500 yuan; the price of ternary precursor 622 (polycrystalline/consumer type) was 83,450 yuan/ton, up 1,800 yuan; the price of ternary precursor 811 (polycrystalline/power type) was 103,025 yuan/ton, up 1,200 yuan; the price of ternary material 523 (polycrystalline/consumer type) was 121,625 yuan/ton, up 800 yuan; the price of ternary material 523 (single - crystal/power type) was 125,200 yuan/ton, up 800 yuan; the price of ternary material 622 (polycrystalline/consumer type) was 124,975 yuan/ton, up 900 yuan; the price of ternary material 811 (power type) was 154,300 yuan/ton, up 1,200 yuan; the price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) was 33,530 yuan/ton, down 110 yuan; the price of lithium iron phosphate (mid - to - high - end energy storage) was 32,135 yuan/ton, down 110 yuan; the price of lithium iron phosphate (low - end energy storage) was 29,350 yuan/ton, down 110 yuan; the price of lithium manganate (power type) was 33,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of lithium manganate (capacity type) was 30,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of cobalt acid lithium (60%, 4.35V/domestic) was 338,500 yuan/ton, up 24,000 yuan [5]. - **Cells and Batteries**: The price of 523 square ternary cells was 0.396 yuan/Wh, unchanged; the price of 523 soft - pack ternary cells was 0.41 yuan/Wh, unchanged; the price of 523 cylindrical ternary batteries was 4.42 yuan/piece, unchanged; the price of square lithium iron phosphate cells was 0.332 yuan/Wh, unchanged; the price of square lithium iron phosphate cells (small power type) was 0.34 yuan/Wh, unchanged; the price of cobalt acid lithium cells was 6.75 yuan/Ah, up 0.1 yuan; the price of square lithium iron phosphate batteries was 0.303 yuan/Wh, unchanged [5]. 3.2 Chart Analysis - **Ore Prices**: Charts show the price trends of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF), lithium mica (1.5% - 2.0%), lithium mica (2.0% - 2.5%), and amblygonite (6% - 7%) [6][8]. - **Lithium and Lithium Salt Prices**: Charts present the price trends of metallic lithium, battery - grade lithium carbonate average price, industrial - grade lithium carbonate average price, battery - grade lithium hydroxide price, industrial - grade lithium hydroxide price, and lithium hexafluorophosphate price [10][12][13]. - **Price Spreads**: Charts display the price spreads between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade lithium carbonate and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, CIF China, Japan, and South Korea battery - grade lithium hydroxide and domestic battery - grade lithium hydroxide, battery - grade lithium carbonate (CIF Asia) and domestic battery - grade lithium carbonate, and the basis [16][18][19]. - **Precursors and Cathode Materials**: Charts show the price trends of ternary precursors, ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, lithium manganate, and cobalt acid lithium [22][25][27]. - **Lithium Battery Prices**: Charts present the price trends of 523 square ternary cells, square lithium iron phosphate cells, cobalt acid lithium cells, and square lithium iron phosphate batteries [29][32]. - **Inventory**: Charts show the inventory trends of downstream, smelters, and other links [36]. - **Production Costs**: The chart shows the production profit trends of lithium carbonate from different raw materials such as外购三元极片黑粉,外购磷酸铁锂极片黑粉,外购锂云母精矿, and外购锂辉石精矿 [40].

请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 EVERBRIGHT FUTURES 1 | | 亏损加深，或将增加养殖端淘汰意愿，关注养殖淘汰进度变化对产能的影响。 | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周一，生猪期价低位震荡，期价延续弱势表现。现货市场中，猪价延续下跌。目 | | | | 前全国外三元生猪出栏均价为 10.81 元/公斤，较昨日下跌 0.06 元/公斤，最低价 | | | | 广西 9.94 元/公斤，最高价福建 11.49 元/公斤。全国标猪价格为 10.81 元/公斤， | | | | 肥猪价格为 11.58 元/公斤，标肥价差为 0.77 元/公斤。 据上海钢联重点养殖企 | | | 生猪 | 业样本数据显示，今日重点养殖企业全国生猪日度出栏量为 324599 头，较上个 | 震荡 | | | 工作日上调 1.48%. 今日全国外三元生猪出栏均重为 123.44，较上个工作日微降 | | | | 0.06%。 据 Mysteel 农产品监测的 81 家样本屠宰企业总屠宰量为 131409 头，较 | | | | 上个工作日上涨 1.41%。技术上，生猪现货价格弱势延续，生猪期价受 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On October 13, industrial silicon showed a volatile and slightly stronger trend, with the main contract 2511 closing at 8,805 yuan/ton, an intraday increase of 0.92%, and the open interest decreasing by 1,313 lots to 166,000 lots. The spot reference price of industrial silicon from Baichuan remained stable at 9,580 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The price of the lowest deliverable 421 grade remained stable at 8,900 yuan/ton, and the spot premium narrowed to 70 yuan/ton [2]. - Polysilicon showed a volatile and slightly weaker trend, with the main contract 2511 closing at 48,740 yuan/ton, an intraday decrease of 2.35%, and the open interest decreasing by 3,344 lots to 87,665 lots. The price of N-type recycled polysilicon material rose to 52,500 yuan/ton, and the price of the lowest deliverable silicon material also rose to 52,500 yuan/ton, with the spot premium widening to 3,565 yuan/ton [2]. - Currently, the demand for polysilicon and aluminum alloys is resilient, and the main variable lies in the supply side. Large - scale production shutdowns are即将 to occur in the southwest. Attention should be focused on the resumption time and supplementary production scale in the north. Considering the resumption rhythm in Xinjiang, short - selling operations at high levels for the far - month contracts are recommended. Recently, there has been much discussion in the market about the registration of a capacity acquisition platform in October and the arrival of funds in November. Due to the failure to reach an agreement on production cuts in October, production has continued to rise. Coupled with lower - than - expected tenders, domestic component production schedules have declined, and the overall terminal market has remained weak. The market is currently waiting for the industry conference in late October and the centralized cancellation of warehouse receipts in November. With cautious sentiment building up, the overall volatility of polysilicon may increase under the influence of news, and a cautious and bearish stance is recommended [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Data Monitoring - **Industrial Silicon**: The futures settlement price of the main contract increased from 8,685 yuan/ton on October 10 to 8,805 yuan/ton on October 13, an increase of 120 yuan/ton. Most of the spot prices of different grades and at different locations remained stable, with only a few showing small changes. The current lowest deliverable price remained at 8,900 yuan/ton, and the spot premium decreased from 200 yuan/ton to 70 yuan/ton. The industrial silicon warehouse receipts increased by 573 to 50,854, and the total social inventory increased by 2,500 tons to 445,000 tons [3]. - **Polysilicon**: The futures settlement price of the main contract decreased from 48,965 yuan/ton on October 10 to 48,740 yuan/ton on October 13, a decrease of 225 yuan/ton. The spot prices of various types of polysilicon remained stable. The current lowest deliverable price remained at 52,500 yuan/ton, and the spot premium increased from 3,060 yuan/ton to 3,565 yuan/ton. The polysilicon warehouse receipts decreased by 240 to 7,900, and the total social inventory increased from 241,000 tons to 254,000 tons [3]. - **Organic Silicon**: The price of DMC in the East China market remained at 11,200 yuan/ton, and the prices of other organic silicon products such as raw rubber and 107 glue also remained stable, except for dimethyl silicone oil, which increased by 1,700 yuan/ton to 13,500 yuan/ton [3]. 3.2 Chart Analysis 3.2.1 Industrial Silicon and Cost - Side Prices - Charts show the prices of different grades of industrial silicon, grade spreads, regional spreads, electricity prices, silica prices, and refined coal prices [4][6][11]. 3.2.2 Downstream Product Prices - Charts display the prices of DMC, organic silicon products, polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components [13][15][16]. 3.2.3 Inventory - Charts present the inventory of industrial silicon futures, factory warehouses, weekly industry inventory, and changes in weekly inventory, as well as the weekly inventory of DMC and polysilicon [18][21]. 3.2.4 Cost and Profit - Charts show the average cost and profit levels in major production areas, weekly cost - profit of industrial silicon, profit of the aluminum alloy processing industry, cost - profit of DMC, and cost - profit of polysilicon [24][26][31]. 3.3 Team Introduction - The non - ferrous metals team includes Zhan Dapeng, a science master, the current director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, a senior precious metals researcher, a gold intermediate investment analyst, an outstanding metals analyst of the Shanghai Futures Exchange, and the best industrial futures analyst of Futures Daily and Securities Times. He has more than a decade of commodity research experience, serves many leading spot enterprises, has published dozens of professional articles in public newspapers and magazines, and has long been interviewed by multiple media. The team has won the awards for the best non - ferrous metal industry futures research team of Futures Daily and Securities Times in the 15th and 16th sessions and the title of outstanding non - ferrous metal industry team of the Shanghai Futures Exchange in 2016 [33]. - Wang Heng, a master of finance from the University of Adelaide, Australia, is a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly researching aluminum and silicon. He focuses on domestic non - ferrous industry research, tracks the dynamics of the new energy industry chain, provides timely hot - spot and policy interpretations for clients, and has written many in - depth reports, which have been highly recognized by clients [33]. - Zhu Xi, a science master from the University of Warwick, UK, is a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly researching lithium and nickel. She focuses on the integration of non - ferrous metals and new energy, tracks the dynamics of the new energy industry chain, provides timely hot - spot and policy interpretations for clients, and has written many in - depth reports, which have been highly recognized by clients [34].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment ratings for urea, soda ash, and glass are all "oscillating" [2] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Urea futures prices rebounded from a low on Monday, with the closing price of the main 01 contract at 1,610 yuan/ton, a slight increase of 0.56%. Spot prices continued to weaken. Demand is insufficient, but low prices are favorable. The Indian tender results will be released on Wednesday, and the impact on the domestic market needs attention. The futures market may rebound from the bottom but lacks upward momentum, and should be treated with a wide - range oscillation mindset [2] - Soda ash futures prices fluctuated widely on Monday, with the closing price of the main 01 contract at 1,247 yuan/ton, a slight decrease of 0.48%. Spot manufacturers' quotes were mostly stable, and traders' quotes fluctuated. The fundamentals have no bright spots, the futures market sentiment is short - term weak, and external macro and policy factors need attention [2] - Glass futures prices were weak on Monday, with the closing price of the main 01 contract at 1,179 yuan/ton, a decline of 3.68%. Spot prices were stable. The market's concern about supply decline has eased, demand support is insufficient, and short - term market sentiment is weak. Attention should be paid to policy expectations and supply changes [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Information Urea - On October 13, the number of urea futures warehouse receipts was 6,917, a decrease of 100 from the previous trading day, and the valid forecast was 21 [5] - On October 13, the daily output of the urea industry was 192,000 tons, an increase of 300 tons from the previous working day and an increase of 3,400 tons from the same period last year. The operating rate was 82.06%, a decrease of 2.52 percentage points from 84.58% in the same period last year [5] - On October 13, the small - particle urea spot prices in various domestic regions were: Shandong 1,530 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton; Henan 1,520 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton; Hebei 1,570 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan/ton; Anhui 1,550 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton; Jiangsu 1,530 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton; Shanxi 1,450 yuan/ton, unchanged [5] Soda Ash & Glass - On October 13, the number of soda ash futures warehouse receipts was 7,565, an increase of 512 from the previous trading day, with 1,839 valid forecasts; the number of glass futures warehouse receipts was 0, unchanged from the previous trading day [7] - On October 13, the soda ash spot prices were: North China light soda 1,200 yuan/ton, heavy soda 1,300 yuan/ton; Central China light soda 1,150 yuan/ton, heavy soda 1,250 yuan/ton; East China light soda 1,130 yuan/ton, heavy soda 1,250 yuan/ton; South China light soda 1,350 yuan/ton, heavy soda 1,400 yuan/ton; Southwest light soda 1,200 yuan/ton, heavy soda 1,300 yuan/ton; Northwest light soda 950 yuan/ton, heavy soda 950 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan/ton [7] - On October 13, the daily operating rate of the soda ash industry was 85.28%, compared with 84.39% on the previous working day [8] - On October 13, the average price of the float glass market was 1,264 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; the industry's daily output was 161,300 tons, unchanged from the previous day [8] Chart Analysis - The report includes multiple charts such as the closing price, basis, trading volume and open interest, price difference, and spot price trend charts of urea and soda ash, as well as the futures price difference charts of urea - methanol and glass - soda ash. All chart data sources are iFind and the Everbright Futures Research Institute [10][12][18][19]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. It gives individual views on various energy and chemical products, mostly indicating a "volatile" outlook for each product. 2. Core Views - **Crude Oil**: Prices showed a slight rebound on Monday. WTI 11 - month contract closed up $0.59 to $59.49 per barrel, a 1.00% increase; Brent 12 - month contract closed up $0.59 to $63.32 per barrel, a 0.94% increase; SC2511 closed at 452.7 yuan per barrel, up 1.2 yuan per barrel, a 0.27% increase. With the cease - fire agreement in the Middle East and OPEC+ production increases, and current macro - risk disturbances, oil prices are expected to be mainly volatile [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: The main contracts of high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil on the Shanghai Futures Exchange declined on Monday. The supply of low - sulfur fuel oil in Singapore is sufficient, while the high - sulfur fuel oil market is relatively strong. Under the pressure of new tariffs, the absolute prices of high - and low - sulfur fuel oil are expected to be volatile and weak in the short term [2]. - **Asphalt**: The main asphalt contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange declined on Monday. There is still some construction rush expectation after the holiday, but the previous significant increase in asphalt production may suppress prices. Under tariff pressure, asphalt prices are expected to be volatile and weak in the short term, with a smaller decline than crude oil and fuel oil [2]. - **Polyester**: Polyester chain prices are weakly volatile. The average sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang are estimated to be less than 50%. Some MEG devices have maintenance and restart operations. With a high polyester start - up rate and limited room for further increase, and a loose supply pattern of TA and EG, prices will follow crude oil prices in the short term [2][4]. - **Rubber**: The prices of main rubber contracts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange declined on Monday. In September 2025, China's imports of natural and synthetic rubber increased year - on - year. With normal rubber tapping in major production areas, high tire inventory, and weak demand due to tariffs, rubber prices are expected to be weakly volatile [4][5]. - **Methanol**: Affected by US sanctions on Iranian shipping, the subsequent arrival volume of methanol may decline. Although the re - escalation of Sino - US trade friction has a negative impact on chemical product valuations, methanol may perform better than downstream olefin products. It is recommended to pay attention to the strategy of going long on methanol and short on polyolefins, as well as the positive spread strategy between months [5]. - **Polyolefins**: The prices of polyolefins are expected to be weak. The short - term production will remain high, and although there is still support for downstream orders in October, the marginal increase will gradually decline. The decline in crude oil prices due to the re - escalation of Sino - US trade friction also affects polyolefin prices [5][6]. - **PVC**: The prices of PVC in East, North, and South China markets showed a weak adjustment on Monday. Supply remains high, domestic demand slows down, and exports are affected by India's anti - dumping policy and the escalation of Sino - US trade friction. With high inventory pressure, PVC prices are expected to be volatile and weak [6]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Monday, oil prices rebounded slightly. The cease - fire agreement in the Middle East and OPEC+ production increases are the main influencing factors. OPEC+ data shows that Russia's oil production in September increased to 9.321 million barrels per day, still below the quota. OPEC+ aims to increase production by more than 2.7 million barrels per day this year, equivalent to about 2.5% of global oil demand. Crude oil prices are expected to be volatile [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: The main contracts of high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil declined. The supply of low - sulfur fuel oil in Singapore is sufficient, while the high - sulfur market is relatively strong. Under tariff pressure, prices are expected to be volatile and weak in the short term [2]. - **Asphalt**: The main asphalt contract declined. There is construction rush expectation after the holiday, but previous production increases may suppress prices. Under tariff pressure, prices are expected to be volatile and weak with a smaller decline [2]. - **Polyester**: Polyester chain prices are weakly volatile. Sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang are low. Some MEG devices have maintenance and restart operations. With a high start - up rate and loose supply, prices follow crude oil prices [2][4]. - **Rubber**: Rubber contract prices declined. China's rubber imports increased in 2025. With normal tapping, high tire inventory, and weak demand due to tariffs, prices are expected to be weakly volatile [4][5]. - **Methanol**: Affected by US sanctions on Iranian shipping, arrival volume may decline. Although trade friction affects chemical product valuations, methanol may perform better than downstream olefins. Strategies such as long methanol and short polyolefins are recommended [5]. - **Polyolefins**: Prices are expected to be weak. Short - term production remains high, downstream order marginal increase declines, and crude oil price decline affects polyolefins [5][6]. - **PVC**: PVC market prices are weakly adjusted. Supply is high, demand slows down, and exports are affected. With high inventory, prices are expected to be volatile and weak [6]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring The report provides the basis price data of various energy and chemical products on October 13, 2025, including spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, and the changes and historical quantiles of basis rates. It also explains the calculation methods and data sources of some prices [7]. 3.3 Market News - Trump first proposed to impose 100% tariffs on Chinese exports to the US, then said the "substantial tariff increase" might not be implemented, and the US vice - president signaled willingness to negotiate. The market's selling is restricted by the negotiation intention, and the short - term outlook depends on the outcome of trade negotiations [10]. - OPEC+ data shows that Russia's oil production in September increased to 9.321 million barrels per day, still below the quota. OPEC+ aims to increase production by more than 2.7 million barrels per day this year, equivalent to about 2.5% of global oil demand [10]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: The report presents the historical closing price charts of main contracts of various energy and chemical products from 2021 - 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, LPG, PTA, etc. [12][13][14] - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: It shows the basis charts of main contracts of various products, such as crude oil, fuel oil, etc., and provides data on the basis between different benchmarks for some products [28][29][30] - **4.3 Inter - contract Spreads**: The report provides the spread charts between different contracts of various products, such as fuel oil, asphalt, PTA, etc. [44][45][46] - **4.4 Inter - product Spreads**: It presents the spread charts between different products, including crude oil internal and external spreads, fuel oil high - low sulfur spreads, etc. [59][60][61] - **4.5 Production Profits**: The report shows the production profit charts of some products, such as ethylene - based ethylene glycol and LLDPE [68][70][72] 3.5 Team Member Introduction - **Zhong Meiyan**: Assistant Director and Energy and Chemical Director of Everbright Futures Research Institute. With a master's degree from Shanghai University of Finance and Economics, she has won multiple "Excellent Analyst" awards and led the team to win industry service awards. She has more than ten years of experience in the futures derivatives market [74]. - **Du Bingqin**: Analyst of crude oil, natural gas, fuel oil, asphalt, and shipping at Everbright Futures Research Institute. With a master's degree from the University of Wisconsin - Madison, she has won multiple industry analyst awards and has in - depth research on the energy industry [75]. - **Di Yilin**: Analyst of natural rubber and polyester at Everbright Futures Research Institute. With a master's degree in finance, she has won multiple analyst awards and is good at data analysis [76]. - **Peng Haibo**: Analyst of methanol, PE, PP, and PVC at Everbright Futures Research Institute. With a master's degree from China University of Petroleum (East China), he has years of experience in energy and chemical spot - futures trading [77].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for stock index futures is "Bullish", and for treasury bond futures is "Sideways" [1] Core Viewpoints - For stock indices, affected by weekend trade dispute news, the A-share market opened significantly lower and closed slightly down. The long - term upward momentum of the index mainly comes from internal policy expectations, which remain unchanged so far. Short - term IV decline may be a buying opportunity, and one can allocate a small position in November out - of - the - money call options. Before the important meeting on October 20, the index may be in an adjustment phase. If leveraged funds leave the market in the short term, it may affect the valuation of technology stocks [1] - For treasury bonds, the central bank's support has led to a marginal loosening of the money market, and the escalation of the Sino - US tariff war has increased risk - aversion sentiment, so treasury bonds will be strong next week. However, due to the cooling of policy interest - rate cut expectations and the intensification of quasi - fiscal tools, treasury bonds lack the impetus for a significant upward movement [1][2] Summary by Directory Research Views - **Stock Index Futures**: Affected by trade disputes, A - share market indices such as Wind All A, CSI 1000, CSI 500, SSE 50, and CSI 300 all declined. Short - term trade disputes may impact the index, but long - term momentum depends on internal policies. The adjustment of margin conversion ratios by some domestic brokers may affect technology stocks. One can consider small - position layout of November out - of - the money call options [1] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: On the previous trading day, treasury bond futures of different maturities all rose. The central bank conducted 137.8 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net injection of funds. The money market marginally loosened, and risk - aversion sentiment increased. Although the bonds will be strong next week, they lack the power for a large - scale upward movement [1][2] Daily Price Changes - **Stock Index Futures**: Contracts such as IH, IF, IC, and IM all declined compared to the previous period, with declines ranging from 0.47% to 0.64% [4] - **Stock Indices**: Indices including SSE 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 also declined, with declines between 0.19% and 0.50% [4] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Contracts like TS, TF, T, and TL all rose, with increases from 0.02% to 0.41% [4] Market News - On October 13, customs data showed that in September, China's exports and imports denominated in US dollars both increased year - on - year, exceeding expectations. Exports increased by 8.3% and imports by 7.4% [5] Chart Analysis - **Stock Index Futures**: The report presents the trends of main contracts and the basis trends of IH, IF, IC, and IM [7][8][9][10][11] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: It shows the trends of main contracts, spot bond yields, basis, inter - delivery spreads, cross - variety spreads, and money market rates [14][17][18][19] - **Exchange Rates**: Displays the trends of the central parity rates of the US dollar, euro against the RMB, forward exchange rates, and the trends of the US dollar index and currency pairs such as euro - US dollar, pound - US dollar, and US dollar - yen [22][23][24][26][28]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report No clear core viewpoints are presented in the given text. The report mainly provides data on index trends, the impact of sector fluctuations on indices, futures basis, and futures rollover point differences. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Index Trends - On October 13th, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3889.5 points with a change of -0.19% and a trading volume of 1085.414 billion yuan; the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13231.47 points with a change of -0.93% and a trading volume of 1269.327 billion yuan [1]. - The CSI 1000 Index had a change of -0.19% and a trading volume of 470.991 billion yuan, with an opening price of 7250.58, a closing price of 7519.76, a daily high of 7535.21, and a daily low of 7250.58 [1]. - The CSI 500 Index had a change of -0.29% and a trading volume of 473.286 billion yuan, with an opening price of 7135.1, a closing price of 7376.56, a daily high of 7391.82, and a daily low of 7135.1 [1]. - The SSE 50 Index had a change of -0.26% and a trading volume of 185.783 billion yuan, with an opening price of 2917.88, a closing price of 2967.21, a daily high of 2972.19, and a daily low of 2917.88 [1]. 3.2 Impact of Sector Fluctuations on Indices - The CSI 1000 Index rose -14.06 points compared to the previous closing price. Sectors such as electronics, non - ferrous metals, and national defense and military industry had a significant upward pull on the index, while sectors like machinery, pharmaceuticals, and automobiles had a downward pull [2]. - The CSI 500 Index rose -21.66 points compared to the previous closing price. Non - ferrous metals and electronics had an upward pull, while machinery, automobiles, and pharmaceuticals had a downward pull [2]. - The SSE 300 Index rose -22.85 points compared to the previous closing price. Non - ferrous metals and banks had an upward pull, while power equipment, pharmaceuticals, and non - bank finance had a downward pull [2]. - The SSE 50 Index rose -7.64 points compared to the previous closing price. Electronics, non - ferrous metals, and computers had an upward pull, while food and beverage, non - bank finance, and pharmaceuticals had a downward pull [2]. 3.3 Futures Basis and Annualized Opening Costs - For IM futures, IM00 had an average daily basis of -23.79, IM01 of -112.03, IM02 of -191.57, and IM03 of -414.08 [12]. - For IC futures, IC00 had an average daily basis of -15.26, IC01 of -87.02, IC02 of -132.55, and IC03 of -296.72 [12]. - For IF futures, IF00 had an average daily basis of -5.07, IF01 of -15.92, IF02 of -25.96, and IF03 of -45.99 [12]. - For IH futures, IH00 had an average daily basis of -1.73, IH01 of -4.12, IH02 of -4.67, and IH03 of -3.62 [12]. 3.4 Futures Rollover Point Differences and Annualized Costs - Details of the rollover point differences and their annualized costs for IM, IC, IF, and IH futures are provided in the corresponding tables, including data at different time points such as 09:45, 10:00, etc. [22][23][25][27].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - On October 9, 2025, the main contract of lithium carbonate futures rose 0.27% to 73,340 yuan/ton. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate remained at 73,550 yuan/ton, the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate remained at 71,300 yuan/ton, and the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) dropped 50 yuan/ton to 73,580 yuan/ton. The warehouse receipt inventory increased 670 tons to 42,379 tons [3]. - On October 9, the Ministry of Commerce and the General Administration of Customs announced export controls on multiple new - energy core materials from November 8, 2025. Three departments jointly announced the technical requirements for new - energy vehicles eligible for vehicle purchase tax exemptions from 2026 - 2027 [3]. - In terms of supply, the weekly output increased 119 tons to 20,635 tons. For demand, the weekly output of ternary materials increased 214 tons to 16,976 tons, and the weekly output of lithium iron phosphate increased 4,644 tons to 84,467 tons. In terms of inventory, the weekly inventory decreased 2,023 tons to 134,802 tons [3]. - After the holiday, the peak demand season, lithium carbonate inventory reduction, and firm lithium ore prices support the price. However, there are still expectations of project复产, and with the supplement of overseas imports, the tight domestic balance will gradually ease, and the price will fluctuate in the short term [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Price Changes**: The main contract of lithium carbonate futures rose 0.27% to 73,340 yuan/ton. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was stable, while battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) dropped 50 yuan/ton. Warehouse receipt inventory increased 670 tons [3]. - **Policy News**: Export controls on new - energy core materials will be implemented from November 8, 2025. Technical requirements for new - energy vehicles eligible for purchase tax exemptions from 2026 - 2027 were announced [3]. - **Supply - Demand - Inventory Situation**: Supply increased 119 tons weekly. Demand for ternary materials and lithium iron phosphate increased. Inventory decreased 2,023 tons weekly [3]. - **Price Outlook**: Short - term price is expected to fluctuate due to demand support and supply - side factors [3]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Futures and Spot Prices**: Futures prices of lithium carbonate and related products showed various changes. For example, the main contract of lithium carbonate futures rose 540 yuan/ton, and the continuous contract rose 840 yuan/ton. Some lithium ore prices decreased, while the price of six - fluorophosphate lithium increased 3,000 yuan/ton [5]. - **Price Spreads**: Some price spreads changed, such as the battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate spread decreased 50 yuan/ton [5]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Ore Prices**: Charts show the price trends of lithium - containing ores like lithium spodumene concentrate, lithium mica, and phospho - lithium - aluminum stone from 2024 - 2025 [6][8][9]. - **Lithium and Lithium Salt Prices**: Charts display the price trends of metal lithium, battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, and lithium hydroxide from 2024 - 2025 [10][11][13]. - **Price Spreads**: Charts present the trends of various price spreads, including the spread between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate, and the spread between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate from 2024 - 2025 [17][18]. - **Precursor & Cathode Materials**: Charts show the price trends of ternary precursors, ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, manganese acid lithium, and cobalt acid lithium from 2024 - 2025 [25][26][29]. - **Lithium Battery Prices**: Charts display the price trends of 523 square ternary cells, square lithium iron phosphate cells, cobalt acid lithium cells, and square lithium iron phosphate batteries from 2024 - 2025 [34][35][37]. - **Inventory**: Charts show the weekly inventory trends of downstream, smelters, and other links of lithium carbonate from February 20, 2025 - October 9, 2025 [39][40][42]. - **Production Costs**: The chart shows the production profit trends of lithium carbonate from different raw materials from 2024 - 2025 [43][44]. 3.4 Team Introduction - The research team includes Zhan Dapeng, Wang Heng, and Zhu Xi, who have rich experience and professional titles in the field of non - ferrous metals research and new - energy industry research [47][48]. 3.5 Company Contact Information - The company is located at Building 6, Lujiazui Century Financial Plaza, No. 729 Yanggao South Road, China (Shanghai) Pilot Free Trade Zone. The company's phone number is 021 - 80212222, and the fax is 021 - 80212200. The customer service hotline is 400 - 700 - 7979, and the postal code is 200127 [51][52].

工业硅日报 工业硅&多晶硅日报（2025 年 10 月 10 日） 一、研究观点 点评 节后首日工业硅震荡偏弱，主力 2511 收于 8640 元/吨，日内跌幅 0.29%，持仓增仓 2165 手至 17.7 万手。百川工业硅现货参考价 9580 元/ 吨，较上一交易日持稳。最低交割品#421 价格持稳在 8900 元/吨，现 货升水 235 元/吨。多晶硅震荡偏弱，主力 2511 收于 50765 元/吨，日 内跌幅 0.09%，持仓减仓 2372 手至 84987 手；多晶硅 N 型复投硅料价 格涨至 52500 元/吨，最低交割品硅料价格涨至 52500 元/吨，现货升水 扩至 1700 元/吨。节前下游囤货规模不高，节后硅厂降库压力较大，政 策带盘的效果有限，集中备货型回暖也不具有续航力，节前资金存在 减仓离场动向，工业硅期货逐步止涨，建议观望为主或轻仓短线操 作，关注西南地区减产政策的实际落地情况。多晶硅随着能耗标准公 布，市场计价已充分反映政策预期估值，资金逐步形成回调节奏。关 注终端需求能否承接以及库存能否实质去化，建议投资者需警惕节后 回调风险，做好仓位管理，择机逢高布空。 请务必阅读正文之后 ...