光大期货金融期货日报 光大期货金融期货日报（2026 年 01 月 23 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 市场全天高位震荡，截止收盘沪指涨 0.14%，深成指涨 0.5%，创业板指涨 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 1.01%。央行下调各类结构性货币政策工具利率 25BP。结构性货币政策工具 以定向支持社会特定融资需求为主，科技创新、普惠养老、碳减排等近期股 | | | | 市热点题材均涵盖其中。本次降息体现了央行在保持总量稳定的基础上，对 | | | | 于特定领域的进一步资金支持，在本轮流动性牛市中，有助于引导资金进入 | | | | 相关板块，推升板块估值。此外，更低的融资成本有助于相关板块资本性支 | | | 股指 | 出提升，促进企业盈利的增加，有助于长期资金提升对相关题材的配置。此 | 震荡 | | | 前，沪深交易所发布通知，将融资买入证券保证金最低比例由 80%调为 100%， | | | | 尽管实际影响有待观察，但资金避险情绪明显增加，市场进入高位震荡模式， | | | | 短期波动加大，需谨慎追高，观望为主。本轮牛市是由科技题材突破创新驱 | | | ...

1. Index Trends - On January 22, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.14% to close at 4122.58 points with a trading volume of 1201.764 billion yuan; the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.5% to close at 14327.05 points with a trading volume of 1489.968 billion yuan [1] - The CSI 1000 Index rose 0.75% with a trading volume of 571.806 billion yuan, opening at 8272.47, closing at 8309.35, with a daily high of 8314.22 and a low of 8252.74 [1] - The CSI 500 Index rose 0.57% with a trading volume of 546.138 billion yuan, opening at 8355.68, closing at 8387.59, with a daily high of 8396.13 and a low of 8337.2 [1] - The SSE 50 Index fell 0.46% with a trading volume of 193.411 billion yuan, opening at 3080.2, closing at 3053.13, with a daily high of 3089.67 and a low of 3046.43 [1] - The CSI 300 Index rose 0.01% with a trading volume of 690.235 billion yuan, opening at 4741.75, closing at 4723.71, with a daily high of 4757.76 and a low of 4700.45 [1] 2. Impact of Sector Movements on Indexes - The CSI 1000 rose 61.67 points from the previous close, with National Defense and Military Industry, Non - Ferrous Metals and other sectors significantly driving the index up [2] - The CSI 500 rose 47.48 points from the previous close, with National Defense and Military Industry, Computer, Basic Chemicals and other sectors significantly driving the index up, while the Media sector significantly pulling the index down [2] - The CSI 300 rose 0.64 points from the previous close, with Communications, National Defense and Military Industry, Petroleum and Petrochemicals and other sectors significantly driving the index up, while Non - Banking Finance, Power Equipment, Non - Ferrous Metals and other sectors significantly pulling the index down [2] - The SSE 50 fell 14.05 points from the previous close, with Petroleum and Petrochemicals, National Defense and Military Industry and other sectors significantly driving the index up, while Non - Ferrous Metals, Non - Banking Finance, Banking and other sectors significantly pulling the index down [2] 3. Stock Index Futures Basis and Annualized Opening Costs Converted from Basis - For IM contracts, IM00 had an average daily basis of - 7.79, IM01 of - 36.25, IM02 of - 210.33, and IM03 of - 375.27 [12] - For IC contracts, IC00 had an average daily basis of 8.93, IC01 of 7.02, IC02 of - 87.86, and IC03 of - 197.89 [12] - For IF contracts, IF00 had an average daily basis of - 0.14, IF01 of - 1.9, IF02 of - 36.88, and IF03 of - 95.46 [12] - For IH contracts, IH00 had an average daily basis of 2.23, IH01 of 5.46, IH02 of 2.53, and IH03 of - 30.97 [12]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Urea**: On Wednesday, the urea futures price fluctuated with a slight upward trend, and the closing price of the main 05 contract was 1,779 yuan/ton, up 0.62%. The spot market price mostly remained stable, with individual regions continuing to decline. Urea supply fluctuated slightly, and there may be a seasonal increase in the future. Demand was relatively weak and differentiated. The inventory of urea enterprises decreased by 4.07% this week. The futures market is expected to show a range - bound trend in the short term, supported by pre - holiday stocking demand, but trading activity will decline as the Spring Festival approaches [2]. - **Soda Ash**: On Wednesday, the soda ash futures price fluctuated within a narrow range, and the closing price of the main 05 contract was 1,163 yuan/ton, down 1.61%. The spot factory quotes were stable, while traders' quotes fluctuated with market sentiment. The supply of soda ash increased, and demand sentiment declined, increasing market pressure. The futures price is expected to continue the range - bound trend, and attention should be paid to the purchasing power of middle and downstream enterprises before the Spring Festival [2]. - **Glass**: On Wednesday, the glass futures price continued to decline, and the closing price of the main 05 contract was 1,039 yuan/ton, down 2.35%. The spot price weakened again. Glass supply remained stable, and demand was acceptable, with the sales - to - production ratio in most mainstream regions above 100%. However, the demand is expected to be suppressed as deep - processing enterprises shut down for the holiday, and manufacturers may face inventory accumulation. There may be a short - term rebound opportunity supported by pre - holiday stocking [2]. 3. Summary by Directory Market Information - **Urea** - On January 21, the number of urea futures warehouse receipts on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange was 13,340, a decrease of 15 from the previous trading day, with 100 valid forecasts [5]. - On January 21, the daily output of the urea industry was 205,100 tons, an increase of 27,000 tons from the previous working day, and an increase of 157,000 tons compared with the same period last year. The industry's operating rate was 87.10%, up 2.52 percentage points year - on - year [5]. - On January 21, the spot prices of small - particle urea in various domestic regions showed different trends, with prices in Shandong and Hebei remaining flat, and prices in Henan, Anhui, and Jiangsu decreasing by 10 yuan/ton [6]. - On January 21, the inventory of urea enterprises was 946,000 tons, a weekly decrease of 40,100 tons, or 4.07% [7]. - **Soda Ash & Glass** - On January 21, the number of soda ash futures warehouse receipts on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange was 222, a decrease of 2,210 from the previous trading day, with 2,047 valid forecasts; the number of glass futures warehouse receipts was 533, a decrease of 1,205 from the previous trading day [9]. - On January 21, the spot prices of soda ash in different regions were reported, showing regional differences [9]. - On January 21, the operating rate of the soda ash industry was 86.66%, up from 84.94% the previous working day [10]. - On January 21, the average price of the float glass market was 1,097 yuan/ton, a daily decrease of 2 yuan/ton, and the daily output was 150,700 tons, remaining stable compared with the previous day [10]. Chart Analysis The report presents multiple charts, including those showing the closing prices, basis, trading volume and open interest, price spreads, and spot price trends of urea, soda ash, and glass futures, as well as the price spreads between urea - methanol and glass - soda ash futures, providing visual data for market analysis [12][14][16][20][22][24]. Research Team Introduction The research team of the report consists of Zhang Xiaojin, the director of resource product research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, focusing on sugar industry research; Zhang Linglu, an analyst responsible for research on urea, soda ash, and glass futures; and Sun Chengzhen, an analyst engaged in fundamental research and data analysis of cotton, cotton yarn, and ferroalloys [27].

软商品日报 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周三，ICE 美棉下跌 0.06%，报收 64.3 美分/磅，郑棉主力合约环比上涨 0.17%，报 收 14535 元/吨，主力合约持仓环比下降 908 手至 78.72 万手，棉花 3128B 现货价 格指数 15445 元/吨，较前一日上涨 55 元/吨。国际市场方面，近期海外宏观扰动 增量预期。上周纺企与织厂有补充原料库存动作，从库存结构来看，TTEB 数据显 | 震荡 | | | 不断，恐慌指数较高，美元指数偏弱，金银走势偏强，美棉价格缺乏方向性驱动。 | | | | 国内市场方面，昨日郑棉持仓环比基本持平，期价振幅收窄。近期关于 2026 年新 | | | 棉花 | 疆地区种植面积调整的预期交易逐渐降温，市场关注重心回归基本面，聚焦主要 | | | | 在于总供应、节前下游备货需求及开工情况。目前来看，棉花产量较高，进口有 | | | | 示纺织原料库存可用天数约 32 天，节前再度大幅补库动力不强。随着春节假期逐 | | | | 渐临近，企业也将陆续放假，开工率或从高位逐渐回落。整体来看，节 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On January 21, 2026, the lithium carbonate futures 2605 rose to 166,740 yuan/ton. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 6,000 yuan/ton to 158,500 yuan/ton, the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased by 6,000 yuan/ton to 155,000 yuan/ton, and the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) rose by 4,500 yuan/ton to 151,500 yuan/ton. The warehouse receipt inventory increased by 975 tons to 28,656 tons [3]. - In terms of supply, the weekly output increased by 115 tons to 22,535 tons. The output of lithium extraction from spodumene increased by 35 tons to 13,959 tons, the output of lithium extraction from lepidolite increased by 20 tons to 2,956 tons, the output of lithium extraction from salt lakes increased by 40 tons to 3,185 tons, and the output of lithium extraction from recycled materials increased by 20 tons to 2,435 tons. It is expected that the lithium carbonate output in January 2026 will decrease by 1.2% month - on - month to 97,970 tons. In terms of demand, the output of ternary materials in January 2026 is expected to decrease by 5% month - on - month to 78,180 tons; the output of lithium iron phosphate is expected to decrease by 10% month - on - month to 363,400 tons; the output of ternary power batteries in January 2026 is expected to decrease by 6.15% month - on - month to 28.7 GWh, the output of lithium iron power batteries is expected to decrease by 9.77% month - on - month to 90.01 GWh, and the output of lithium iron energy storage batteries is expected to increase by 0.99% month - on - month to 63.15 GWh. In terms of inventory, the weekly social inventory of lithium carbonate increased by 337 tons to 109,942 tons, among which the downstream inventory decreased by 2,458 tons to 36,540 tons, the inventory in other links increased by 2,080 tons to 55,020 tons, and the upstream inventory increased by 715 tons to 18,382 tons [3]. - Due to the dual disturbances of supply and cost at the resource end, there is still an expectation of inventory reduction in the first quarter. Without a clear negative feedback in demand, the downstream inventory remains at a relatively low level. In the short term, the price will fluctuate and run strongly. However, it is necessary to be vigilant about the amplification of market volatility and the impact of positions [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Data Monitoring - Futures: The closing price of the main contract was 166,740 yuan/ton, up 6,240 yuan from the previous day; the closing price of the continuous contract was 165,080 yuan/ton, up 6,140 yuan. The price of spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 2,035 US dollars/ton, up 50 US dollars. The price of lepidolite (Li2O: 1.5% - 2.0%) was 3,060 yuan/ton, up 75 yuan; the price of lepidolite (Li2O: 2.0% - 2.5%) was 4,835 yuan/ton, up 125 yuan; the price of amblygonite (Li2O: 6% - 7%) was 15,350 yuan/ton, up 300 yuan; the price of amblygonite (Li2O: 7% - 8%) was 16,950 yuan/ton, up 300 yuan [5]. - Lithium salts: The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5% battery - grade/domestic) was 158,500 yuan/ton, up 6,000 yuan; the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate (99.2% industrial zero - grade/domestic) was 155,000 yuan/ton, up 6,000 yuan; the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles/domestic) was 151,500 yuan/ton, up 4,500 yuan; the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (micropowder) was 156,350 yuan/ton, up 4,500 yuan; the price of industrial - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles/domestic) was 143,900 yuan/ton, up 4,000 yuan; the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (CIF China, Japan and South Korea) was 16.8 US dollars/kg, up 1.2 US dollars. The price of lithium hexafluorophosphate was 149,500 yuan/ton, down 2,000 yuan [5]. - Price differences: The price difference between battery - grade lithium carbonate and industrial - grade lithium carbonate remained unchanged at 3,500 yuan/ton. The price difference between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 1,500 yuan to - 7,000 yuan. The difference between CIF China, Japan and South Korea battery - grade lithium hydroxide and SMM battery - grade lithium hydroxide increased by 3,914 yuan to - 33,876.48 yuan [5]. - Precursors and cathode materials: The price of ternary precursor 523 (polycrystalline/power type) remained unchanged at 119,150 yuan/ton; the price of ternary precursor 523 (single - crystal/consumer type) decreased by 50 yuan to 105,250 yuan/ton; the price of ternary precursor 622 (polycrystalline/consumer type) remained unchanged at 98,700 yuan/ton; the price of ternary precursor 811 (polycrystalline/power type) decreased by 100 yuan to 119,200 yuan/ton. The price of ternary material 523 (polycrystalline/consumer type) increased by 2,600 yuan to 193,000 yuan/ton; the price of ternary material 523 (single - crystal/power type) increased by 1,800 yuan to 182,600 yuan/ton; the price of ternary material 622 (polycrystalline/consumer type) increased by 1,800 yuan to 187,900 yuan/ton; the price of ternary material 811 (power type) increased by 1,500 yuan to 205,700 yuan/ton. The price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) increased by 1,455 yuan to 55,595 yuan/ton; the price of lithium iron phosphate (mid - high - end energy storage) increased by 1,450 yuan to 54,045 yuan/ton; the price of lithium iron phosphate (low - end energy storage) increased by 1,410 yuan to 50,470 yuan/ton. The price of lithium manganate (power type) increased by 1,000 yuan to 57,000 yuan/ton; the price of lithium manganate (capacity type) increased by 1,000 yuan to 55,000 yuan/ton. The price of cobalt acid lithium (60%, 4.35V/domestic) remained unchanged at 404,500 yuan/ton [5]. - Cells and batteries: The price of 523 square ternary cells was 0.526 yuan/Wh, up 0.001 yuan; the price of 523 soft - pack ternary cells remained unchanged at 0.54 yuan/Wh; the price of 523 cylindrical ternary batteries was 4.95 yuan/piece, up 0.1 yuan. The price of square lithium iron phosphate cells was 0.357 yuan/Wh, up 0.001 yuan; the price of square lithium iron phosphate cells (small power type) was 0.48 yuan/Wh, up 0.01 yuan. The price of cobalt acid lithium cells was 7.85 yuan/Ah, up 0.1 yuan. The price of square lithium iron phosphate batteries remained unchanged at 0.306 yuan/Wh [5]. 3.2 Chart Analysis - Ore prices: Charts show the price trends of spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF), lepidolite (1.5% - 2.0%), lepidolite (2.0% - 2.5%), and amblygonite (6% - 7%, 7% - 8%) from 2024 to 2026 [6][9]. - Lithium and lithium salt prices: Charts display the price trends of metallic lithium, battery - grade lithium carbonate average price, industrial - grade lithium carbonate average price, battery - grade lithium hydroxide, industrial - grade lithium hydroxide, and lithium hexafluorophosphate from 2024 to 2026 [12][14][18]. - Price differences: Charts present the price differences between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade lithium carbonate and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, CIF China, Japan and South Korea battery - grade lithium hydroxide and domestic battery - grade lithium hydroxide, battery - grade lithium carbonate (CIF Asia) and domestic battery - grade lithium carbonate, and the basis from 2024 to 2026 [20][21][22]. - Precursors and cathode materials: Charts show the price trends of ternary precursors, ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, lithium manganate, and cobalt acid lithium from 2024 to 2026 [26][28][30]. - Lithium battery prices: Charts display the price trends of 523 square ternary cells, square lithium iron phosphate cells, cobalt acid lithium cells, and square lithium iron phosphate batteries from 2024 to 2026 [32][35]. - Inventory: Charts show the inventory trends of downstream, smelters, and other links from May 29, 2025, to January 15, 2026 [37][40]. - Production cost: The chart shows the production profit trends of lithium carbonate from different raw materials such as外购三元极片黑粉 (Li: 5.5% - 6.5%),外购磷酸铁锂极片黑粉 (Li: 3.2% - 4.2%),外购锂云母精矿 (Li₂O: 2.5%), and外购锂辉石精矿 (Li₂O: 6%) from 2024 to 2026 [41][42].

黑色商品日报 黑色商品日报（2026 年 1 月 22 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 钢材 | 螺纹钢：昨日螺纹盘面窄幅调整，截止日盘螺纹 2605 合约收盘价格为 3117 元/吨，较上一交易收盘价格 | 窄幅震荡 | | | 上涨 6 元/吨，涨幅为 0.19%，持仓减少 0.1 万手。现货价格基本平稳，成交维持低位，唐山地区迁安普方 | | | | 坯价格持平于 2930 元/吨，杭州市场中天螺纹价格持平于 3210 元/吨，全国建材成交量 7.63 万吨。据海关 | | | | 数据，2025 年 12 月棒线材出口量 211.88 万吨，同比增长 45.24%；1-12 月棒线材出口量 1937.8 万吨，同 | | | | 比增长 61.73%。2025 年 12 月钢坯出口量 144.12 万吨，同比增长 86.43%；1-12 月钢坯出口量 1482.13 万 | | | | 吨，同比增长 134.03%。棒线材及钢坯出口量大幅增长，在很大程度上缓解了螺纹供应压力。目前螺纹整 | | | | 体处于供需双弱局面，库存压力不大， ...

农产品日报（2026 年 1 月 22 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 近期玉米主力 | 2603 | 合约先跌后涨，3 | 月期价调整，5 | 月跟随。现货市场方面，目 | 前距离春节长假不足一个月时间，农户销售进度加快，贸易商入市收购，产销成 | | | | | | | | | 交转旺。目前东北玉米价格暂以稳定为主，有存货贸易商随行出货，基层目前也 | 以随行出货为主，低价售粮意向暂显一般。销区市场玉米价格稳中偏强运行，受 | | | | | | | | | | | | | 玉米 | 震荡偏弱 | 北方降雪影响，贸易商到货成本支撑下报价坚挺。下游目前备货谨慎为主，维持 | | | | | | | | | | | | 安全头寸滚动补库，市场未出现集中补库现象。技术上，玉米市场的近期表现主 | 要受到周边商品及情绪的影响。玉米 | 5 | 月合约期价先弱后强，产区潮粮收购价格 | | | ...

一、研究观点 | 品 种 | 点评 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 隔夜内外铜价震荡偏弱，国内精炼铜现货进口持续亏损状态。宏观方面昨晚达沃斯会议 | | | | | | | | | | 上，欧美裂痕有所加大，但特朗普表示格陵兰岛是美国核心安全利益，但美不会武力夺 | | | | | | | | | | 取，寻求立即谈判。特朗普就格陵兰问题态度软化后，市场避险情绪有所下降。国内方 | | | | | | | | | | 面，1 月 20 日财政部在官网连续发布五项政策文件，涵盖四项贴息政策与一项专项担保 | | | | | | | | | 铜 | 计划，向市场传递稳增长信号。库存方面，LME 库存增加 3100 吨至 159400 | | | | | | | 吨；Comex | | | 库存增加 6599 吨至 503405 吨；SHFE 铜仓单下降 2612 吨至 145581 吨，BC 铜下降 | | | | | 501 | | | | | | 吨至 10760 吨。昨晚铜市场表现来看，虽 ...

1 光期研究 光期黑色：铁矿石基差及价差监测日报 2026 年 1 月 2 2 日 光大证券 2020 年 半 年 度 业 绩 E V E R B R I G H T S E C U R I T I E S 1.1 合约价差 | 期货合约 | 今日收盘价 | 上日收盘价 | 变化 | 合约价差 | 今日价差 | 上日价差 | 变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | I05 | 784.0 | 789.5 | -5.5 | I05-I09 | 17.5 | 18.0 | -0.5 | | I09 | 766.5 | 771.5 | -5.0 | I09-I01 | 14.0 | 14.5 | -0.5 | | I01 | 752.5 | 757.0 | -4.5 | I01-I05 | -31.5 | -32.5 | 1.0 | 图表1：05-09合约价差（单位：元/吨） 图表2：09-01合约价差（单位：元/吨） 2.2 基差：图表 -50 0 50 100 150 200 09 10 10 10 11 11 12 12 01 01 0 ...

工业硅日报 工业硅&多晶硅日报（2026 年 1 月 22 日） 一、研究观点 点评 21 日工业硅震荡偏强，主力 2605 收于 8780/吨，日内涨幅 0.52%，持仓 减仓 865 手至 22.4 万手。百川工业硅现货参考价 9628 元/吨，较上一交 易日持稳。最低交割品价格持稳在 8850 元/吨，现货升水收至 70 元/ 吨。多晶硅震荡偏强，主力 2605 收于 49700 元/吨，日内跌幅 1.59%，持 仓增仓 288 手至 43920 手；百川多晶硅 N 型复投硅料价格跌至 54500 元/ 吨，最低交割品硅料价格 54500 元/吨，现货升水扩至 4800 元/吨。西南 除自备电厂和一体化供应以外全面停炉，新疆检修结束出现复产，中和 供给端减量。下游减产导致工业硅整体上行受挫。多晶硅供需失衡压力 叠加反垄断监管施压，市场交易逻辑由消息炒作转会基本面视角，硅料 强势挺价底气难以延续。近期出口退税取消引发海外订单激增、大幅缓 解组件排产压力，因硅片环节原料积压，增量未能传导至硅料环节，晶 硅端减产规模将进一步扩大。预计短期盘面大涨无力、平稳运行，现货 报价或逐步失去支撑。 请务必阅读正文之后的 ...