1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The terminal demand for ferroalloys is weak, and the prices of silicomanganese (SM) and ferrosilicon (SF) are oscillating downward. The fundamentals of both SM and SF offer limited support, and production cuts are needed to alleviate the supply - demand imbalance. In the short term, the prices of both are expected to remain in a low - level oscillation. Attention should be paid to the production reduction and shutdown situations in the main production areas [5][7]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Futures Prices - In April 2025, the prices of both SM and SF oscillated downward, with the decline of SF futures prices being greater than that of SM. The closing price of the SM main contract on April 25 was 5,796 yuan/ton, a monthly decrease of 4.51%; the closing price of the SF main contract was 5,640 yuan/ton, a monthly decrease of 5.56% [8][10]. 3.2 Spot Prices - The decline of spot prices in Ningxia region was relatively narrow. For SM, the monthly price decline in various regions ranged from 180 - 350 yuan/ton; for SF, the monthly price decline in different regions was between 150 - 250 yuan/ton [11][14]. 3.3 Basis - The basis of both SM and SF oscillated stronger. For example, from April 18 to 25, the weekly increase of SM01 basis was 104 yuan/ton, and that of SF05 basis was 58 yuan/ton [16][19]. 3.4 Spread - The 5 - 9 spread of SM decreased by 4 yuan/ton month - on - month, and that of SF decreased by 40 yuan/ton month - on - month. The spread between SF and SM (SF - SM) decreased by 58 yuan/ton month - on - month [24][27]. 3.5 Production Costs - The production cost of SM decreased across the board. For example, the cost in the northern region decreased by 298.7 yuan/ton month - on - month. The production cost of SF also decreased, with the cost in Ningxia decreasing by 132 yuan/ton month - on - month [30]. 3.6 Production Profits - The immediate production profit of SM increased month - on - month, while that of SF decreased month - on - month. For instance, the production profit of SM in the northern region increased by 53.67 yuan/ton month - on - month, and the production profit of SF in Gansu decreased by 219 yuan/ton month - on - month [31][32]. 3.7 Manganese Silicon (SM) 3.7.1 Supply - The weekly output of SM continued to decline, but the decline rate slowed down. As of April 25, the weekly output was 186,060 tons, with a daily average output of 26,580 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.35%. The operating rate of SM production enterprises also continued to decline [33][36]. 3.7.2 Demand - The weekly demand for SM increased slightly month - on - month, but the year - on - year decline was still significant. The demand on April 25 was 126,749 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.71%. The production of rebar increased year - on - year, but its proportion in the total output of the five major steel products oscillated weakly [41]. 3.7.3 Inventory - The inventory of sample SM enterprises increased month - on - month, and the total number of warehouse receipts and valid forecasts exceeded 650,000 tons. As of April 25, the inventory of 63 sample enterprises was 181,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 33,200 tons. The available days of SM inventory in steel mills decreased [51][54]. 3.7.4 Manganese Ore - The inventory of port manganese ore was at an absolute low level, but the shipping volume gradually increased. In April, the shipping volume increased by 1.18 million tons month - on - month. The price of manganese ore continued to decline, providing limited cost support [58][60]. 3.7.5 Options - The historical volatility of SM options gradually recovered from a low level [65]. 3.8 Ferrosilicon (SF) 3.8.1 Supply - The weekly output of SF oscillated downward. As of April 25, the weekly output was 98,900 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 11.70%. The operating rate of SF production enterprises also decreased [70][73]. 3.8.2 Demand - The weekly demand for SF increased slightly month - on - month. The demand on April 25 was 20,560.4 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.86%. The output of magnesium ingots increased significantly in March, and the current price continued to rise [82][86]. 3.8.3 Cost - The price of semi - coke small materials remained relatively stable this month, and the price of oxidized iron scale decreased by 50 yuan/ton month - on - month [87][90]. 3.8.4 Inventory - The inventory of 60 sample SF enterprises decreased month - on - month but remained at a medium level in the same period of history. The available days of SF inventory in steel mills decreased. As of April 25, the inventory of 60 sample enterprises was 83,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 11,200 tons [6][91]. 3.8.5 Options - The historical volatility of SF options recovered from a low level [98].

光期研究 p 3 2 0 2 5年5月 橡 胶 策 略 报 告 2 0 2 5 年 5 月 1 光大证券 2020 年 半 年 度 业 绩 E V E R B R I G H T S E C U R I T I E S 橡胶：基本面偏弱，远月橡胶价格预期走弱 p 2 | | 目 | 录 | | --- | --- | --- | | 1、价格：期货盘面偏弱震荡 | | | | 2、供应：天胶国内外开割季 | | | | 3、需求：轮胎库存小幅累库 | | | | 4、库存：天然橡胶库存累库趋缓 | | | | 5、持仓：NR持仓高于同期 | | | 1.1 价格：RU盘面月跌幅11.7%，NR盘面月跌幅14.52%，BR盘面月跌幅16.41% 图表：NR主力合约走势（单位：元/吨） 图表：沪胶主力价格（单位：元/吨） 图表：BR主力合约走势（单位：元/吨） 10000 12000 14000 16000 18000 20000 22000 24000 26000 28000 RSS3 SCRWF 沪胶主连 8500 9500 10500 11500 12500 13500 14500 15500 16500 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - In April, the market rebounded from the bottom. Wind All - A closed down 3.15% monthly, with different performance among various indices. The US tariff war, though temporarily halted, may recur due to its underlying financial issues. Attention should be paid to the growth indicators in the A - share annual and quarterly reports, and the long - term trend of A - shares is mainly affected by the de - leveraging process of various sectors under the debt cycle. Also, capital expenditure and profitability of domestic and foreign demand - related sectors need to be monitored [3][6]. - The equity risk premium is at a relatively high historical level. Short - term funds support the stock market, but market sentiment has cooled significantly, and the momentum of both fund inflows and market sentiment has weakened weekly [3][9][18]. - Sectors with high overseas revenue are more sensitive to tariff policies as most of them are in the development stage with high capital expenditure and low ROE, adopting a thin - profit - high - turnover model [3][20]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Overview - **Index Performance**: In April, Wind All - A closed down 3.15% monthly. Specifically, CSI 1000 fell 4.61%, CSI 500 fell 3.94%, SSE 50 fell 0.63%, and SSE 300 fell 2.58%. Weekly, small - cap indices rebounded more strongly, with CSI 1000 rising 1.85% and SSE 50 falling 0.33% [3][6]. - **Tariff Policy**: The US tariff war, which started on April 2nd, has temporarily ended. However, due to the US's insufficient financial account financing ability and the need to balance the current account deficit, tariff policies may change again in the future [3][6]. - **Financial Reports**: At the end of April, A - shares will fully disclose the 2024 annual reports and 2025 first - quarter reports. The market is more concerned about nominal growth data, and the year - on - year revenue growth rate in the financial reports can provide indirect verification. In the first three quarters of 2024, the cumulative year - on - year revenue growth rate of A - shares in Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, excluding the financial sector, was - 1.7% ( - 0.6% in the semi - annual report) [3][6]. 2. Market Indicators - **Interest Rate and Valuation**: At the end of April, the yield of the 10 - year active treasury bond was 1.67%. The dynamic P/E ratio of Wind All - A was 18.22 times, and the equity risk premium was still at a relatively high historical level. The PE_ttm of CSI 1000 was 37.23, and that of SSE 300 was 12.26, with both valuation levels slightly lower than last month [9]. - **Fund Flow**: From April 1st to April 24th, the net subscription of the four major broad - based index ETFs reached 193.6 billion yuan, with a single - day net subscription of 100.3 billion yuan on April 7th, a record high. However, the margin trading balance decreased by 110.5 billion yuan during the same period, indicating a significant cooling of market sentiment. Weekly, both showed weakening momentum [18]. 3. Overseas Revenue Sectors - **Industry Concentration**: Sectors with high overseas revenue are mainly concentrated in three industrial chains: high - end technology manufacturing, new energy vehicle industry chain, and energy and chemical products [20]. - **Sensitivity to Tariffs**: Most sectors with high overseas revenue are in the development and expansion stage, with high capital expenditure ratios (8% - 18% of revenue). Their ROE is lower than the A - share average (around 7.8%), adopting a thin - profit - high - turnover model, making them more sensitive to tariff policies [20]. 4. Policy and Data - **Domestic Policies**: Multiple policies have been introduced, including a 12 - trillion - yuan debt - resolution plan, a mention of "moderately loose monetary policy", a 2025 GDP growth target of 5%, a fiscal deficit rate of 4%, and a fertility reward policy in Hohhot [21]. - **US Tariff Policy**: The US "reciprocal tariff" plan was implemented on April 3rd. As of April 12, 2025, the US tariff rate on Chinese imports increased by 125%. The US also issued a tariff exemption list and a tariff suspension policy for some countries, while China issued a white paper on Sino - US economic and trade relations [21]. - **Economic Data**: In March, China's exports increased by 12.4% year - on - year (in US dollars), and imports decreased by 4.3% year - on - year (in US dollars). In the first quarter of 2025, China's GDP increased by 5.4% year - on - year, and the year - on - year growth rate of social retail sales in March was 5.9%, exceeding the average level of the demand side [21]. 5. Index and Option Performance - **Index Performance**: CSI 1000 fell 4.15% monthly, CSI 500 rose 3.94% monthly, SSE 300 fell 2.58% monthly, and SSE 50 fell 0.63% monthly, with the basis discount annualization showing a widening divergence for all [29][33][36][38]. - **Option Indicators**: Charts of historical volatility, volatility cones,持仓PCR, and 交易PCR for CSI 1000, SSE 300, and SSE 50 options are provided, but no specific analysis of these indicators is given in the text [42][51][58]. - **Trading Slippage**: Charts of IM long - and short - position trading slippage are provided, but no specific analysis is given [66]. 6. Corporate Profitability - **Low - level Profitability**: The profitability of listed companies remains at a relatively low level. In the third quarter of 2024, the revenue and net profit growth rates of the entire market, excluding the financial sector, showed different degrees of decline [77]. - **Financial Indicators of Indices**: The 2024 semi - annual report shows various financial indicators of different indices, including ROE, operating net profit margin, asset turnover, etc., with differences in growth and profitability among different indices [79].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Indonesia's PNBP policy is set to be implemented on the 26th, but its impact on cost increase is expected to be limited. The domestic trade prices of Indonesian nickel ore showed mixed trends last week, while the premium remained stable [4]. - In the stainless - steel market, the nickel - iron in the raw material segment weakened slightly, but the ferro - chrome remained strong, providing effective cost support. Production cuts were observed on the supply side, and inventory decreased significantly last week due to pre - May Day stocking. In May, stainless - steel prices are expected to fluctuate, with cost providing a bottom - line and demand acting as a constraint [4]. - In the new energy sector, the supply of MHP was tighter than expected, and there may be pressure on the demand side of nickel sulfate. In May, with the recovery of raw material supply and the weakening of stocking demand, prices may lack support [4]. - For primary nickel, the domestic social inventory continued to increase last week, indicating growing oversupply pressure. In May, the nickel ore and MHP segments are relatively strong in the short term, and over - bearish views are not advisable. However, in the long run, prices in the nickel ore, nickel - iron, and new energy industrial chains are expected to decline. If the inventory of primary nickel in China continues to increase, it will put more pressure on nickel prices [4]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Price - Monthly, Shanghai nickel fell 2.6%, and LME nickel fell 2.1%. The prices in the industrial chain recovered after a significant decline affected by the macro - environment. Weekly, nickel ore and nickel sulfate prices rose slightly, while nickel - iron prices fell [5][6]. 3.2 Inventory - LME inventory decreased by 120 tons to 202,470 tons last week; Shanghai nickel inventory decreased by 42 tons to 24,800 tons; social inventory increased by 701 tons to 44,661 tons; and bonded - area inventory remained at 5,800 tons [5][12]. 3.3 Supply 3.3.1 Nickel Ore - The price of Indonesian laterite nickel ore with a grade of 1.2% decreased by $0.4 per wet ton to $24 per wet ton, while that of 1.6% increased by $1.5 per ton to $52.5 per ton. The premium of Indonesian nickel ore remained at $25 per wet ton, and the premium of low - grade Philippine nickel ore remained stable [4][5][18]. 3.3.2 Refined Nickel - Futures prices fluctuated within a narrow range, and the spot premium decreased slightly [5][19]. 3.3.3 Nickel Iron - The center of the nickel - iron transaction price in the market moved downward [5][24]. 3.3.4 Intermediate Products - Production in Indonesia was affected, resulting in a relatively tight short - term supply [5][27]. 3.3.5 Nickel Sulfate - Raw material prices were relatively strong, and theoretical profits turned into losses [5][33]. 3.4 Demand 3.4.1 Ternary Precursor - Weekly inventory decreased by 263 tons to 14,195 tons [4][5]. 3.4.2 Power Cells - Weekly cell production increased by 7.9% to 24.98 GWh, with lithium - iron cells increasing by 10.7% to 17.37 GWh and ternary cells increasing by 1.9% to 7.61 GWh [4][5][50]. 3.4.3 Lithium - ion Batteries and New - energy Vehicles - From April 1st to 20th, the retail volume of the national new - energy passenger vehicle market was 478,000 units, a 20% increase compared to the same period last April, a 11% decrease compared to the same period last month, with a retail penetration rate of 53.3%. The cumulative retail volume this year was 2.898 million units, a 33% increase year - on - year. The wholesale volume of new - energy passenger vehicles by national manufacturers was 530,000 units, a 23% increase compared to the same period last April, a 7% decrease compared to the same period last month, with a wholesale penetration rate of 53.3%. The cumulative wholesale volume this year was 3.378 million units, a 39% increase year - on - year [4][5][53]. 3.5 Stainless - steel Market 3.5.1 Price - Most stainless - steel spot prices fell last month, and the spot premium increased by 50 yuan per ton to 525 yuan per ton [65][66]. 3.5.2 Inventory - Warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 11,979 tons to 168,000 tons month - on - month; the total social inventory of 89 stainless - steel warehouses in the national mainstream market decreased by 8,481 tons to 1,078,000 tons week - on - week, with the 300 - series decreasing by 21,476 tons to 701,470 tons [65][70]. 3.5.3 Supply - According to Steel Union statistics, two 300 - series steel mills reduced production to varying degrees this month, expected to affect April's output by about 40,000 tons [65]. 3.5.4 Cost and Profit - The finished - product prices were lackluster, and raw - material prices showed mixed trends [65]. 3.5.5 Consumption - According to the latest production scheduling report of three major white - goods released by Industry Online, the total scheduled production of air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines in May 2024 was 37.75 million units, a 15.2% increase compared to the actual production in the same period last year, and the industry continued to grow at a high speed [65][90][94]. 3.5.6 Supply - demand Balance - Production cuts reduced the pressure of inventory accumulation [65][99].

有色商品日报 有色商品日报（2025 年 4 月 25 日） 一、研究观点 | 品 种 | 点评 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 隔夜 LME 铜震荡走高，上涨 0.92%至 9455 美元/吨；SHFE 铜主力上涨 0.14%至 77770 | | | | | 元/吨；现货进口窗口关闭。宏观方面，美国 3 月耐用品订单环比初值 9.2%，为 2024 年 | | | | | 7 月以来最大增幅，大幅超过预期值 2%和前值 0.9%，但扣除运输类耐用品订单环比初 | | | | | 值为 0%，不及预期的 0.3%，大幅低于前月的 0.7%，总体来看飞机制造订单掩盖了其他 | | | | | 制造业的不足，企业投资更加谨慎。美国 3 月成屋销售总数环比跌 5.9%，大幅预期为 | | | | | 下跌 2.6%和前值上涨 4.2%，3 月成屋销售同比下降 3.1%。不过美联储多位官员发声偏 | | | | | 鸽派，经济和就业市场快速下滑下，美联储会考虑降息，市场对 6 月降息的预期开始升 | | | | 铜 | 温。库存方面，LME 铜库存下降 1825 吨至 吨；C ...

碳酸锂日报 碳酸锂日报（2025 年 4 月 25 日） 一、研究观点 点 评 二、日度数据监测 | | | 锂电产业链产品价格 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 指 标 | 单 位 | 2025-04-24 | 2025-04-23 | 涨 跌 | | | 期 货 | 主力合约收盘价 | 元/吨 | 68300 | 68980 | -680 | | | | 连续合约收盘价 | 元/吨 | 68380 | 69060 | -680 | | | | 锂辉石精矿(6%,CIF中国) | 美元/吨 | 795 | 795 | 0 | | | | 锂云母（Li2O:1.5%-2.0%） | 元/吨 | 950 | 950 | 0 | | | 锂 矿 | 锂云母（Li2O:2.0%-2.5%） | 元/吨 | 1610 | 1610 | 0 | | | | 磷锂铝石（Li2O:6%-7%） | 元/吨 | 6700 | 6700 | 0 | | | | 磷锂铝石（Li2O:7%-8%） | 元/吨 | 7875 | 7875 | 0 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Urea futures prices fluctuated widely on Thursday, with the main 09 contract closing at 1758 yuan/ton, a slight decline of 0.79%. The spot market was mostly stable, with partial price cuts. Urea supply increased, and enterprise inventories rose by 17.52% this week, exceeding 1 million tons. Demand was limited, with agricultural demand delayed and industrial demand mainly for rigid needs. The market is expected to have a short - term shock trend, and attention should be paid to spot transactions and downstream procurement efforts [1]. - Soda ash futures prices fluctuated strongly on Thursday, with the main 09 contract closing at 1380 yuan/ton, a rise of 2.07%. The spot market was mostly stable, with partial rebounds in traders' quotes. The supply reduction of soda ash was difficult to reverse the loose pattern, and the supply volatility remained high. Demand was average, and downstream enterprises had a low willingness to stock up on a large scale. The market is expected to have a short - term shock trend, and attention should be paid to device changes, downstream replenishment efforts, and macro - sentiment [1]. - Glass futures prices fluctuated weakly on Thursday, with the main 09 contract closing at 1135 yuan/ton, a slight decline of 0.96%. The spot market price rebounded slightly. The supply had little impact on the market, and enterprises' inventories increased slightly. Demand was limited, but the spot trading atmosphere improved recently. The market is expected to have a short - term shock trend, and attention should be paid to macro - sentiment, policies, and spot transactions [1]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Research Views - **Urea**: The futures price was 1758 yuan/ton, down 0.79%. The spot price in Shandong and Henan was 1830 yuan/ton. Supply increased to 19.63 tons per day, and enterprise inventories rose by 17.52% to over 1 million tons. Demand was limited, and the market is expected to be volatile [1]. - **Soda Ash**: The futures price was 1380 yuan/ton, up 2.07%. The spot price was mostly stable. The industry's operating rate decreased by 0.06 percentage points, and the weekly output decreased by 0.06%. Supply pressure was slightly relieved, and demand was average. The market is expected to be volatile [1]. - **Glass**: The futures price was 1135 yuan/ton, down 0.96%. The spot price increased by 1 yuan/ton to 1281 yuan/ton. The daily melting volume was stable at 15.78 tons, and enterprises' inventories increased slightly. Demand was limited, but spot transactions improved. The market is expected to be volatile [1]. Market Information - **Urea**: On April 24, the futures warehouse receipt was 4138, down 25 from the previous day. The daily output was 19.63 tons, an increase of 0.28 tons from the previous day. The operating rate was 85.13%, up 1.36 percentage points from the same period last year. The inventory as of April 23 was 106.50 tons, up 17.52% from last week [4][5]. - **Soda Ash and Glass**: On April 24, the soda ash futures warehouse receipt was 4030, down 260 from the previous day, and the effective forecast was 2546; the glass futures warehouse receipt was 2541, unchanged. The soda ash industry's capacity utilization rate was 89.44%, down 0.06 percentage points. The output was 75.51 tons, down 0.06%. The inventory was 169.10 tons, down 0.11%. The glass market average price was 1281 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton. The daily output was 15.78 tons, unchanged. The inventory as of April 24 was 6547.33 million heavy boxes, up 0.61% [7][8]. Chart Analysis - The report includes multiple charts such as the closing price, basis, trading volume, and position of urea and soda ash contracts, as well as the price trends of urea and soda ash spot, and the futures price differences between urea - methanol and glass - soda ash [10][11][13][18][20][22]. Research Team Introduction - The research team includes Zhang Xiaojin, Zhang Linglu, and Sun Chengzhen, who are responsible for different commodity research and have rich experience and many honors [25].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The report does not provide an overall investment rating for the industry, but gives individual ratings for each black commodity: steel - narrow - range adjustment; iron ore - repeated oscillations; coking coal - consolidation; coke - consolidation; manganese silicon - oscillation; ferrosilicon - oscillation [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes the market conditions of various black commodities on April 25, 2025, including price changes, supply - demand situations, and future trends [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Steel**: The rebar futures fell slightly, with the 2510 contract closing at 3106 yuan/ton, down 0.99%. Spot prices also declined, and trading volume decreased. This week, rebar production decreased slightly, inventory decline narrowed, and apparent demand dropped significantly. Considering short - term tariff war relief and domestic policy expectations, as well as raw material and finished - product support, it is expected to have a narrow - range adjustment [1] - **Iron Ore**: The main iron ore futures contract i2509 dropped 0.96% to 720.5 yuan/ton. Port spot prices also fell. Supply showed a slight increase in global shipments, while demand saw an increase in molten iron production and a rise in port inventory. Under the interweaving of long and short factors, it is expected to oscillate repeatedly [1] - **Coking Coal**: The coking coal futures dropped 0.68% to 956 yuan/ton. Spot prices in some areas decreased. Supply is relatively stable, and demand is mainly for on - demand procurement. With policy support expectations, it is expected to consolidate in the short term [1] - **Coke**: The coke futures dropped 0.28% to 1590.5 yuan/ton. Spot prices at ports declined. Supply production is stable, and demand is supported by high - level blast furnace operation. It is expected to consolidate in the short term [1] - **Manganese Silicon**: The manganese silicon futures weakened, with the main contract at 5822 yuan/ton, down 0.99%. Spot prices declined, and market sentiment needs to be boosted. With a decrease in supply in the main production areas, it is expected to oscillate at a low level [1] - **Ferrosilicon**: The ferrosilicon futures weakened, with the main contract at 5658 yuan/ton, down 0.67%. Spot prices in some areas decreased, and market sentiment is weak. With continued production cuts in the main production areas, it is expected to oscillate at a low level [1] 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the latest and环比 data of contract spreads, basis, and spot prices for various black commodities, as well as profit, spread data such as rebar's disk profit, long - process profit, short - process profit, etc [4] 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Main Contract Prices**: The report presents the closing price trends of main contracts for various black commodities from 2020 to 2025, including rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon [6][7][10] - **Main Contract Basis**: It shows the basis trends of main contracts for various black commodities from 2020 to 2025, including rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon [18][19][22] - **Inter - period Contract Spreads**: It shows the spread trends of inter - period contracts for various black commodities from 2020 to 2025, including rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon [26][29][32] - **Inter - variety Contract Spreads**: It shows the spread trends of inter - variety contracts for various black commodities from 2020 to 2025, including the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar, the ratio of rebar to iron ore, etc [41][42][43] - **Rebar Profits**: It shows the profit trends of rebar's main contract disk profit, long - process profit, and short - process profit from 2020 to 2025 [46][47][48] 3.4 Black Research Team Members - The black research team members include Qiu Yuecheng, Zhang Xiaojin, Liu Xi, and Zhang Chunjie, each with rich industry experience and relevant professional qualifications [52][53]

工业硅日报 一、研究观点 点评 24 日多晶硅震荡偏强，主力 2506 收于 39375 元/吨，日内涨幅 2.26%，持仓减仓 1991 手至 59000 手；SMM 多晶硅 N 型硅料价格 42000 元/吨，现货对主力升水收至 2625 元/吨。工业硅震荡偏弱，主力 2505 收于 8875 元/吨，日内跌幅 0.11%，持仓 增仓 132 手至 18.3 手。百川工业硅现货参考价 10178 元/吨，较上一交易日持稳。最 低交割品#553 价格降至 8850 元/吨，现货升水 65 元/吨转至贴水 5 元/吨。工业硅 减产计划进一步扩大，伊犁将于 5 月初停产，西南复产延后。因亏损严重部分产能 已转向铁合金等版块。此外多晶硅大跌对进一步拖累工业硅，目前硅厂停产速度远 低于价格下探节奏，后续减产难以扭转当前局面，或延续探底表现。多晶硅终端需 求仍有继续失速迹象。在结构性错配的压力下，弱预期将进一步加深。仍以偏空思 路对待，跟踪库存拐点与政策动向，警惕交割月前异动风险。 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 EVERBRIGHT FUTURES 1 工业硅日报 工业硅&多晶硅日报（2025 年 4 月 25 ...

软商品日报 光大期货软商品日报（2025 年 4 月 25 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 棉花 | 周四，ICE 美棉上涨 0.17%，报收 69.15 美分/磅，CF509 上涨 0.58%，报收 12990 | 震荡 | | | 元/吨，主力合约持仓环比增加 1639 手 56.93 万手，新疆地区棉花到厂价为 13988 | | | | 元/吨，较前一日持平，中国棉花价格指数 3128B 级为 14188 元/吨，较前一日增加 | | | | 37 元/吨。国际市场方面，近期宏观层面仍有扰动，特朗普释放中美关税政策缓和 | | | | 信号，美元指数自低位回升，昨日重心略有下移，ICE 美棉期价震荡运行，预计短 | | | | 期宏观扰动仍存。国内市场方面，郑棉期价整体仍维持震荡走势，市场情绪影响仍 | | | | 然较大。展望未来，我们认为本年度最艰难时刻大概率已经度过，中美关税较此前 | | | | 再度增加概率偏低。供需基本面来看，目前是新棉种植期，供应端扰动不大，下游 | | | | 需求虽相对有限，但能看到棉花商业库存在逐渐下 ...