Group 1: Investment Ratings - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. Group 2: Core Views - Corn: The corn market shows different trends in different regions. In the Northeast, prices are rising, while in North China, prices are falling. Technically, the short - term price is adjusted, and the medium - term is expected to be weak due to high yield and lower costs [1]. - Soybean and Bean Meal: CBOT soybeans fell as investors adjusted positions before the supply - demand report, which is expected to show a slight decline in US soybean yield but still high production. Domestic bean meal prices are mainly oscillating, and short - term participation is recommended [1]. - Palm Oil and Other Oils: BMD palm oil declined due to the strengthening of the Malaysian ringgit. Domestic oil futures prices are narrowly oscillating, and strategies such as increasing volatility or selling put options are recommended [1]. - Eggs: Egg futures rebounded, and spot prices are stable. The supply will affect egg prices in the future, and it is recommended to wait and see [1]. - Pigs: Pig futures are weakly oscillating, and spot prices are also weak. The anti - dumping measures have limited impact, and the market sentiment should be monitored [2]. Group 3: Market Information Summary - Canadian Agricultural Production: As of July 31, Canada's wheat production was 35.94 million tons, and the ending inventory was 4.11 million tons; rapeseed production was 19.24 million tons, and the ending inventory was 1.60 million tons [3]. - Domestic Inventory: As of the end of the 36th week of 2025, domestic soybean oil inventory increased by 1.60% week - on - week, bean meal inventory increased by 9.09% week - on - week, and imported rapeseed oil inventory decreased by 4.01% week - on - week [3]. - Trading Arrangement: On September 11, 2025, a domestic soybean auction will be held, selling 22,500 tons of domestic soybeans [3]. - US Crop Forecast: Analysts expect US soybean production in the 2025/26 season to be 4.271 billion bushels, lower than the August estimate [3]. Group 4: Variety Spread - Contract Spread: The report shows various contract spreads such as corn 1 - 5, corn starch 1 - 5, etc., but no specific data analysis is provided [4][5][6] - Contract Basis: The report shows various contract bases such as corn basis, soybean basis, etc., but no specific data analysis is provided [12][13][16] Group 5: Research Team Introduction - The research team includes Wang Na, the director of the agricultural product research at Everbright Futures Research Institute; Hou Xueling, a soybean analyst; and Kong Hailan, a researcher on eggs and pigs [27]

工业硅日报 工业硅&多晶硅日报（2025 年 9 月 10 日） 一、研究观点 工业硅日报 二、日度数据监测 | | 二、日度数据监测 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 分 | 项 | 2025/9/8 | 2025/9/9 | 涨 跌 | | | | | 工业硅 | | | | | 期货结算价（元/吨） | 主力 | 8545 | 8530 | -15 | | | | 近月 | 8690 | 8555 | -135 | | | | 不通氧553#硅(华东) | 8950 | 8950 | 0 | | | | 不通氧553#硅(黄埔港) | 9000 | 9000 | 0 | | | 不通氧553#现货价格 | 不通氧553#硅(天津港) | 8850 | 8850 | 0 | | | （元/吨） | 不通氧553#硅(昆明) | 9000 | 9000 | 0 | | | | 不通氧553#硅(四川) | 8650 | 8650 | 0 | | | | 不通氧553#硅(上海) | 9350 | 9350 | 0 | | | | 通氧55 ...

Group 1: Investment Ratings - Urea: Bullish [1] - Soda Ash: Bearish [1] - Glass: Bearish [1] Group 2: Core Views - Urea futures prices fluctuated weakly on Tuesday, with the main 01 contract closing at 1,683 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.17%. The spot market continued to weaken, and the supply level fluctuated narrowly. The demand side remained cautious, and the average sales-to-production ratio was only 25%. The Indian tender results are still being announced, and if the procurement volume and China's supply exceed expectations, the futures price may be bullish in the short term; otherwise, it will be under pressure [1]. - Soda ash futures prices fluctuated weakly on Tuesday, with the main 01 contract closing at 1,278 yuan/ton, a slight decline of 0.62%. The spot market quotation was stable, and the production level declined slightly. The demand side followed up as needed, and the market lacked new themes and drivers. It is expected that the short-term futures price will be bearish [1]. - Glass futures prices fluctuated strongly on Tuesday, with the main 01 contract closing at 1,192 yuan/ton, a slight increase of 0.34%. The spot market quotation increased slightly, and the demand side improved. However, the marginal change in supply and demand was limited, and the short-term futures price was bearish [1]. Group 3: Market Information Urea - On September 9, the number of urea futures warehouse receipts was 8,843, an increase of 76 from the previous trading day, and the valid forecast was 75 [4]. - On September 9, the daily output of the urea industry was 183,200 tons, a decrease of 2,100 tons from the previous working day and a decrease of 800 tons from the same period last year. The industry operating rate was 78.31%, a decrease of 4.23 percentage points from 82.54% in the same period last year [4]. - On September 9, the spot prices of small-grain urea in various regions of China were as follows: Shandong 1,680 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; Henan 1,690 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; Hebei 1,710 yuan/ton, unchanged; Anhui 1,690 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; Jiangsu 1,680 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; Shanxi 1,580 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan [4]. Soda Ash & Glass - On September 9, the number of soda ash futures warehouse receipts was 7,759, a decrease of 440 from the previous trading day, and the valid forecast was 3,157. The number of glass futures warehouse receipts was 2,093, a decrease of 3 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [6]. - On September 9, the spot prices of soda ash in various regions were unchanged from the previous day [6]. - On September 9, the daily operating rate of the soda ash industry was 86.76%, compared with 88.71% on the previous working day [7]. - On September 9, the average price of the float glass market was 1,163 yuan/ton, an increase of 4 yuan/ton from the previous day, and the daily output of the industry was 160,200 tons, unchanged from the previous day [7]. Group 4: Chart Analysis - The report includes 12 charts, showing the closing prices, basis, trading volume, and positions of urea and soda ash futures, as well as the spot price trends of urea, soda ash, and glass, and the futures price spreads between urea and methanol, and glass and soda ash [9][11][13]

Group 1: Research Views - Cotton: On Tuesday, ICE U.S. cotton rose 0.27% to 66.39 cents per pound, and CF601 decreased 0.68% to 13,835 yuan per ton. The main contract's open interest increased by 2,364 lots to 507,700 lots. The cotton market price in Xinjiang was about 15,300 yuan per ton, down 50 yuan from the previous day, and the national average cotton market price was 15,401 yuan per ton, down 27 yuan. The international market focused on the macro - level, with a nearly 100% probability of a September interest rate cut and over 10% probability of a 50BP cut. The weak - oscillating U.S. dollar index supported U.S. cotton prices. In the domestic market, Zhengzhou cotton futures prices declined slightly due to new cotton listings, export pressure on clothing, and market sentiment adjustment. It is expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term with limited downside space [2]. - Sugar: Brazil exported 769,000 tons of sugar and molasses in the first week of September, with a daily average of 153,800 tons. In September 2024, Brazil's sugar export volume was 3.8795 million tons, with a daily average of 184,700 tons. Guangxi sugar - making groups quoted 5,830 - 5,940 yuan per ton, and Yunnan groups quoted 5,720 - 5,770 yuan per ton, with some prices up 10 yuan. Processing sugar mills' mainstream quotes were 5,950 - 6,080 yuan per ton, with some down 20 yuan. Raw sugar rebounded from a two - month low. The domestic spot market has sufficient short - term supply, and the futures prices lack upward drivers. It is expected to remain weak [2]. Group 2: Daily Data Monitoring - Cotton: The 1 - 5 contract spread was 45 yuan with no change, the main contract basis was 1,566 yuan, up 23 yuan. The Xinjiang spot price was 15,300 yuan per ton, down 50 yuan, and the national average was 15,401 yuan per ton, down 27 yuan [3]. - Sugar: The 1 - 5 contract spread was 18 yuan, up 2 yuan, the main contract basis was 417 yuan, up 9 yuan. The Nanning spot price was 5,880 yuan per ton with no change, and the Liuzhou price was 5,935 yuan per ton with no change [3]. Group 3: Market Information - Cotton: On September 9, the cotton futures warehouse receipt quantity was 5,459, down 112 from the previous day, and the valid forecast was 0. The cotton market prices in different regions were: Xinjiang 15,300 yuan/ton, Henan 15,350 yuan/ton, Shandong 15,500 yuan/ton, and Zhejiang 15,400 yuan/ton. The yarn comprehensive load was 49.9, up 0.1, the yarn comprehensive inventory was 26.8, down 0.1, the short - fiber cloth comprehensive load was 49.9, up 0.2, and the short - fiber cloth comprehensive inventory was 30.4 with no change [4]. - Sugar: On September 9, the Nanning sugar spot price was 5,880 yuan/ton with no change, and the Liuzhou price was 5,935 yuan/ton with no change. The sugar futures warehouse receipt quantity was 11,977, down 125 from the previous day, and the valid forecast was 6 [4][5]. Group 4: Research Team - Zhang Xiaojin is the director of resource product research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, focusing on the sugar industry [19]. - Zhang Linglu is a resource product analyst at Everbright Futures Research Institute, responsible for futures varieties such as urea and soda ash glass [20]. - Sun Chengzhen is a resource product analyst at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly engaged in fundamental research and data analysis of cotton, cotton yarn, and ferroalloys [21]. Group 5: Company Information - The company is located at Unit 703, 6th Floor, No. 729 Yanggao South Road, China (Shanghai) Pilot Free Trade Zone. The company phone is 021 - 80212222, the fax is 021 - 80212200, the customer service hotline is 400 - 700 - 7979, and the postal code is 200127 [24]

1. Index Trends - On September 9th, the Shanghai Composite Index decreased by 0.51% to close at 3807.29 points, with a trading volume of 917.795 billion yuan. The Shenzhen Component Index decreased by 1.23% to close at 12510.6 points, with a trading volume of 1200.728 billion yuan [1]. - The CSI 1000 Index decreased by 1.16% with a trading volume of 431.929 billion yuan. The opening price was 7287.4, the closing price was 7226.03, the highest price was 7315.97, and the lowest price was 7198.32 [1]. - The CSI 500 Index decreased by 0.9% with a trading volume of 394.762 billion yuan. The opening price was 6959.94, the closing price was 6928.97, the highest price was 6999.73, and the lowest price was 6895.51 [1]. - The SSE 50 Index decreased by 0.38% with a trading volume of 139.241 billion yuan. The opening price was 2928.53, the closing price was 2928.63, the highest price was 2949.54, and the lowest price was 2915.04 [1]. 2. Impact of Sector Movements on Indexes - The CSI 1000 decreased by 85.0 points compared to the previous closing price. Sectors such as Computer, Medicine & Biology, and Electronics significantly pulled the index down [2]. - The CSI 500 decreased by 63.15 points compared to the previous closing price. Sectors such as Medicine & Biology, Computer, and Electronics significantly pulled the index down [2]. - The SSE 300 decreased by 31.31 points compared to the previous closing price. The Banking sector significantly pulled the index up, while sectors such as Medicine & Biology, Power Equipment, and Electronics significantly pulled the index down [2]. - The SSE 50 decreased by 11.25 points compared to the previous closing price. Sectors such as Non - Ferrous Metals, Banking, and Food & Beverage significantly pulled the index up, while sectors such as Communication, Medicine & Biology, and Electronics significantly pulled the index down [2]. 3. Stock Index Futures Basis and Annualized Opening Costs - For IM contracts, the average daily basis for IM00 was -65.66, IM01 was -124.63, IM02 was -267.2, and IM03 was -445.73 [13]. - For IC contracts, the average daily basis for IC00 was -55.17, IC01 was -112.43, IC02 was -226.53, and IC03 was -371.08 [13]. - For IF contracts, the average daily basis for IF00 was -8.25, IF01 was -15.74, IF02 was -35.66, and IF03 was -54.15 [13]. - For IH contracts, the average daily basis for IH00 was -2.13, IH01 was -3.06, IH02 was -2.44, and IH03 was -0.23 [13]. 4. Stock Index Futures Roll - over Point Differences and Annualized Costs - For IC contracts, the roll - over point differences and their corresponding annualized costs varied throughout the day. For example, at 09:45, the IC00 - 01 was -68.64222, IC00 - 02 was -225.568, etc. [24]. - For IH contracts, at 09:45, the IH00 - 01 was 0.707, IH00 - 02 was 1.4593333, etc. The values changed over different time points [25]. - For IM contracts, at 09:45, the IM00 - 01 was -73.02267, IM00 - 02 was -259.4522, etc. The values were dynamic during the trading day [26]. - For IF contracts, at 09:45, the IF00 - 01 was -12.31678, IF00 - 02 was -41.14122, etc. The roll - over point differences and annualized costs changed over time [27].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for stock index futures is "Bullish", and for treasury bond futures is "Sideways" [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The A-share market adjusted with fluctuations throughout the day, with the ChiNext Index falling more than 3% in the afternoon. Since August, the A-share market has shown a "narrowing" trend, and short - term corrections are normal. In the long run, the Fed's dovish stance and expected multiple interest rate cuts this year will benefit the A - share market. Shanghai's housing policy adjustments and the implementation of the national parenting subsidy system are expected to drive inflation and support the market. The liquidity market is expected to continue, with obvious structural characteristics and accelerated sector rotation [1] - Treasury bond futures closed lower. In September, the risk of significant fluctuations in the capital market is low, short - term bonds are relatively stable, and long - term bonds fluctuate more under the influence of stock market trends and government bond issuance [1][2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Stock Index Futures**: The A - share market adjusted with fluctuations, with over 4000 stocks in the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing markets falling, and the trading volume reaching 2.15 trillion yuan. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.51%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 1.23%, and the ChiNext Index fell 2.23%. The market is expected to benefit from multiple factors in the long run, and the liquidity market will continue with structural characteristics [1] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year main contracts of treasury bond futures fell. The central bank conducted 2470 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 87 billion yuan. Short - term bonds are stable, while long - term bonds fluctuate more [1][2] 3.2 Daily Price Changes - **Stock Index Futures**: On September 10, 2025, compared with the previous day, IH fell 0.38%, IF fell 0.60%, IC fell 0.69%, and IM fell 0.97% [3] - **Stock Indexes**: The Shanghai 50 Index fell 0.38%, the CSI 300 Index fell 0.70%, the CSI 500 Index fell 0.90%, and the CSI 1000 Index fell 1.16% [3] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: TS fell 0.02%, TF fell 0.01%, T fell 0.08%, and TL fell 0.29% [3] 3.3 Market News - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has achieved initial results in governing irrational competition in key industries such as new energy, automobiles, and photovoltaics. It will carry out special rectification actions against network chaos and regulate production behavior [4] 3.4 Chart Analysis - **Stock Index Futures**: The report provides charts of the trends and basis of IH, IF, IM, and IC main contracts, showing their price trends from 2024 - 01 to 2025 - 07 [6][7][10] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Charts of the trends, basis, inter - period spreads, cross - variety spreads, and capital interest rates of treasury bond futures are presented, covering data from 2023 - 01 to 2025 - 07 [14][16][18] - **Exchange Rates**: Charts of the central parity rates of the US dollar, euro against the RMB, and forward exchange rates, as well as the US dollar index, euro - US dollar, pound - US dollar, and US dollar - yen exchange rates are provided, with data spanning from 2023 - 01 to 2025 - 07 [21][22][25]

光大期货能化商品日报 光大期货能化商品日报（2025 年 9 月 10 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周二油价重心继续反弹，其中 WTI 10 月合约收盘上涨 0.37 美元 | | | | 至 62.63 美元/桶，涨幅 0.59%。布伦特 11 月合约收盘上涨 0.37 美 | | | | 元至 66.39 美元/桶，涨幅 0.56%。SC2510 以 483.8 元/桶收盘，上 | | | | 涨 0.4 元/桶，涨幅为 0.08%。卡塔尔首都多哈北部的卡塔拉地区 | | | | 发生爆炸事件。爆炸发生后，以色列国防军与以色列国家安全总 | | | | 局发表联合声明，证实其对哈马斯高级领导层实施了一次精确打 | | | 原油 | 击。消息人士表示，以色列当天袭击的目标是在多哈的哈马斯谈 | 震荡 | | | 判代表团。袭击发生时，哈马斯领导层正在举行会议，讨论此前 | | | | 一天美国总统特朗普提出的所谓停火提案。EIA 表示，未来几个 | | | | 月全球油价将大幅下跌，因 OPEC+产量上升将导致石油库存大幅 | | | ...

1. Index Movements - On September 8th, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.38% to close at 3826.84 points with a trading volume of 1.025884 trillion yuan; the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 0.61% to close at 12666.84 points with a trading volume of 1.392846 trillion yuan [1]. - The CSI 1000 Index rose by 0.9% with a trading volume of 495.541 billion yuan, opening at 7257.33, closing at 7311.03, with a daily high of 7321.16 and a low of 7220.59 [1]. - The CSI 500 Index rose by 1.13% with a trading volume of 455.361 billion yuan, opening at 6927.41, closing at 6992.12, with a daily high of 6995.72 and a low of 6896.66 [1]. - The SSE 50 Index fell by 0.08% with a trading volume of 153.726 billion yuan, opening at 2940.98, closing at 2939.88, with a daily high of 2953.91 and a low of 2926.39 [1]. 2. Impact of Sector Movements on Indexes - The CSI 1000 rose 65.36 points from the previous close, with sectors such as Machinery, Automobiles, and Pharmaceuticals significantly pulling the index up [3]. - The CSI 500 rose 78.17 points from the previous close, with sectors such as Power Equipment, Basic Chemicals, and Pharmaceuticals significantly pulling the index up [3]. - The SSE 300 rose 7.25 points from the previous close, with sectors such as Pharmaceuticals, Food and Beverage, and Machinery pulling the index up, while Banking, Non - Banking Finance, and Telecommunications pulling it down [3]. - The SSE 50 fell 2.34 points from the previous close, with sectors such as Food and Beverage, Basic Chemicals, and Pharmaceuticals pulling the index up, while Non - Banking Finance, Non - Ferrous Metals, and Banking pulling it down [3]. 3. Futures Basis and Annualized Opening Costs - For IM contracts, IM00 had an average daily basis of -55.59, IM01 -113.04, IM02 -250.1, and IM03 -424.17 [13]. - For IC contracts, IC00 had an average daily basis of -51.81, IC01 -103.9, IC02 -212.74, and IC03 -353.45 [13]. - For IF contracts, IF00 had an average daily basis of -10.92, IF01 -17.37, IF02 -35.6, and IF03 -52.86 [13]. - For IH contracts, IH00 had an average daily basis of -3.99, IH01 -4.24, IH02 -3.28, and IH03 0.11 [13]. 4. Futures Roll - over Point Differences and Annualized Costs - For IC contracts, data shows point differences and annualized costs at different times, e.g., at 09:45, IC00 - 01 was -68.64222, IC00 - 02 was -225.568, etc. [25]. - For IF contracts, at 09:45, IF00 - 01 was -12.31678, IF00 - 02 was -41.14122, etc. [25]. - For IH contracts, at 09:45, IH00 - 01 was 0.707, IH00 - 02 was 1.4593333, etc. [27]. - For IM contracts, at 09:45, IM00 - 01 was -73.02267, IM00 - 02 was -259.4522, etc. [28]

工业硅日报 工业硅&多晶硅日报（2025 年 9 月 9 日） 一、研究观点 点评 8 日工业硅震荡偏弱，主力 2511 收于 8530 元/吨，日内跌幅 2.12%，持 仓增仓 3026 手至 28.9 万手。百川工业硅现货参考价 9359 元/吨，较上 一交易日下调 10 元/吨。最低交割品#421 价格回调至 8600 元/吨，现 货贴水转至升水 55 元/吨。多晶硅震荡偏强，主力 2511 收于 55710 元/ 吨，日内涨幅 1.52%，持仓减仓 31028 手至 15.4 万手；多晶硅 N 型复 投硅料价格涨至 49000 元/吨，最低交割品硅料价格跌至 49000 元/吨， 现货贴水收至 6655 元/吨。工业硅供应增压，需求端面临晶硅减产预 期，有机硅旺季不佳叠加铝合金供应受限等综合压制，基本面向下驱 动强。短期因多晶硅政策情绪波及，整体深跌空间有限。工信部和市 场监管局联合印发稳增长行动方案，再度提出光伏反内卷治理方向。 短期政策预期给予强底部支撑。但排产持续增加叠加下游接受不佳， 库存高压未解。市场仍在静待 930 节能监察结果，短期投机性情绪卷土 重来，盘面波动较强。 请务必阅读正文之后 ...

| 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 玉米 | 周一，玉米主力 2511 合约继续反弹，周末东北玉米现货收购报价上调，近月合 较浓。从周末开始，华北地区山东深加工企业玉米价格继续下调，今日部分企业 米上市时间临近，价格持续下跌，目前寿光金玉米价格 2370 元/吨，较前期最高 点（2530 元/吨）已经下跌 160 元/吨。河北个别深加工企业价格窄幅下调。河南 | 震荡 | | | 约领涨，新陈衔接期玉米期价上行。东北市场玉米价格偏强运行，南港价格上涨， | | | | 北港跟涨心态，带动整体东北地区玉米价格上调，部分地区现货紧缺，新季玉米 | | | | 少量上市，关注新粮上市情况较多，目前来看农户低价售粮意向一般，观望心态 | | | | 延续下跌的趋势。山东深加工早间到货车辆尚可，企业采购压力不大，随着新玉 | | | | 到货量一般，企业价格上调，刺激到货增加，但大趋势依然向下运行。技术上， | | | | 玉米 11 月合约减仓上行，期价短线反弹至 2230 压力位，短期关注价格的阶段性 压力表现。 | | | 豆粕 | 周一，CBOT 大豆上涨，因预期晚些发 ...