光期研究 2 0 2 6年1月橡 胶 策 略 报 告 2 0 2 6 年 1 月 1 光大证券 2020 年 半 年 度 业 绩 E V E R B R I G H T S E C U R I T I E S 橡胶：旺产转低产，胶价震荡 p 2 | | 目 | 录 | | --- | --- | --- | | 1、价格：期货盘面宽幅震荡 | | | | 2、供应：天胶国内进入停割季 | | | | 3、需求：轮胎库存累库高位 | | | | 4、库存：天然橡胶库存中性 | | | | 5、持仓 | | | p 3 1.1 价格：RU盘面月涨幅1.27%，NR盘面月涨幅3.1%，BR盘面月跌幅10.61% 图表：NR主力合约走势（单位：元/吨） 图表：沪胶主力价格（单位：元/吨） 图表：BR主力合约走势（单位：元/吨） 10000 12000 14000 16000 18000 20000 22000 24000 26000 28000 RSS3 SCRWF 沪胶主连 8500 9500 10500 11500 12500 13500 14500 15500 16500 17500 2022-09 2022- ...

铝策略月报 2026 年 1 月 1 光大证券 2020 年 半 年 度 业 绩 E V E R B R I G H T S E C U R I T I E S | 氧化铝&电解铝&铝合金：情绪降温，阶段承压 | | | --- | --- | | 总 | 结 | | 1.供给：据SMM，预计12月国内冶金级氧化铝运行产能降至8869万吨，产量720万吨，环比下滑3.5%，同比下滑1.6%。贵州、广西检修结束开工 | | | 回升，河南矿区仍处于环保督察状态；12月国内电解铝运行产能提升至4410万吨，产量388.5万吨，环比增长6.8%，同比增长4.7%，铝水比回落至 | | | 76.6%。印尼出现爬产，国内新疆内蒙技改项目年末逐步启槽投产，电解铝日产延续高位提升。 | | | 2.需求：旺季逐步转淡，12月铝下游加工企业平均开工率61.5%，环比11月下调0.48%。其中铝板带开工率下调1.45%至64.8%，铝箔开工率下调 | | | 0.63%至70.1%，铝型材开工率下调0.55%至51.9%，铝线缆开工率下调0.4%至61.8%。再生铝合金开工率上调0.02%至60.48%。铝棒加工费全线下调 ...

光期研究 见微知著 股指期货策略月报 202 6 年 1 月 1 光大证券 2020 年 半 年 度 业 绩 E V E R B R I G H T S E C U R I T I E S 股指期货："跨年行情"可能缺席 1、盘面逻辑存在背离 我们认为，1月指数继续在中枢内震荡的概率较高，指数级别冲破中枢向上的条件可能还未成熟。春季躁动行情需要一定的条 件，对小盘指数而言，需要政策边际放宽流动性；对大盘而言，需要通胀预期的持续改善。当下上述条件并不突出。从盘面来看， 三组逻辑背离可能支撑上述观点：（1）价格持续上涨但成交量未明显增加；（2）融资余额上涨但指数隐含波动率回落；（3） A500ETF大幅申购但IF净空头增加。上述逻辑背离表明市场可能并未对指数向上突破做好准备，12月下旬的指数走强更多是题材轮 动引发的短期资金热情。 2、当前基本面环境与历史上"跨年行情"存在差异 历史上1月指数涨跌幅的绝对值水平确实高于其他月份，存在明显的"跨年行情"。我们以2017年至2025年的连续9年作为样本。 中证1000在其中7年的1月录得负增长，其中2022年和2024年均由流动性收窄引发较大跌幅。仅2020年1月和2 ...

Research Views - On December 30, industrial silicon showed a volatile and slightly stronger trend. The main contract 2605 closed at 8,915 yuan/ton, with an intraday increase of 1.08%. The open interest decreased by 4,845 lots to 216,000 lots. The reference price of industrial silicon spot from Baichuan was 9,603 yuan/ton, remaining stable compared to the previous trading day. The price of the lowest deliverable 421 grade remained stable at 8,850 yuan/ton, and the spot shifted from a premium to a discount of 65 yuan/ton [2]. - Polysilicon showed a volatile and slightly weaker trend. The main contract 2605 closed at 57,890 yuan/ton, with an intraday decrease of 0.19%. The open interest decreased by 12,300 lots to 83,000 lots. The price of N-type recycled polysilicon material from Baichuan was raised to 52,500 yuan/ton, and the price of the lowest deliverable silicon material was also raised to 52,500 yuan/ton. The spot discount to the main contract widened to 5,390 yuan/ton [2]. - Industrial silicon plants in the southwest region reduced production again. In the northwest region, there were both increases and decreases in production, and there were expectations of environmental - related production cuts in the future. Due to high - level hedging, the overall inventory pressure on silicon plants was limited. In the short term, industrial silicon continued to follow the logic of cost and production - cut - driven price increases [2]. - Battery cell production was cut and prices were raised again due to the sharp increase in silver prices. Silicon wafer manufacturers significantly raised their quotes. However, the price increase effect on the crystalline silicon end was not good, and several polysilicon plants reported production cuts in January. As the market feedback on the state reserve purchase weakened, the issues of industrial chain profit distribution and downstream production - cut pressure were re - discussed, and new warehouse receipts were registered to relieve pressure, the polysilicon futures price gradually corrected downward [2]. - There were still risks of disturbances in the futures market's capital situation. Investors were advised to be cautious about short - selling and focus on the implementation of production cuts by polysilicon plants [2]. Daily Data Monitoring Industrial Silicon - Futures settlement prices: The main contract increased from 8,715 yuan/ton on December 29 to 8,915 yuan/ton on December 30, up 200 yuan/ton; the near - month contract increased from 8,625 yuan/ton to 8,785 yuan/ton, up 160 yuan/ton [3]. - Spot prices of various grades remained mostly stable, with no change in most regions for不通氧553 and通氧553 and 421 silicon [3]. - The current lowest deliverable price remained at 8,850 yuan/ton, and the spot premium changed from 135 yuan/ton to a discount of 65 yuan/ton, a decrease of 200 yuan/ton [3]. - The industrial silicon warehouse receipts increased by 120 to 10,027 (daily), and the Guangzhou Futures Exchange inventory increased by 2,040 to 47,135 (weekly). The total social inventory of industrial silicon increased by 6,000 tons to 462,150 tons [3]. Polysilicon - Futures settlement prices: The main contract increased from 56,500 yuan/ton on December 29 to 57,890 yuan/ton on December 30, up 1,390 yuan/ton; the near - month contract increased from 57,750 yuan/ton to 58,350 yuan/ton, up 600 yuan/ton [3]. - The price of N - type recycled polysilicon material increased by 100 yuan/ton to 52,500 yuan/ton, and the current lowest deliverable price also increased by 100 yuan/ton to 52,500 yuan/ton. The spot discount widened from 4,100 yuan/ton to 5,390 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,290 yuan/ton [3]. - The polysilicon warehouse receipts increased by 20 to 4,020 (daily), and the Guangzhou Futures Exchange inventory increased by 0.9 million tons to 11.91 million tons (weekly). The total social inventory of polysilicon increased by 0.2 million tons to 30.8 million tons [3]. Organic Silicon - The price of DMC in the East China market remained at 13,700 yuan/ton, and the prices of raw rubber and 107 glue remained stable. The price of dimethyl silicone oil increased by 1,000 yuan/ton to 15,200 yuan/ton [3]. Chart Analysis Industrial Silicon and Cost - Side Prices - Charts show the prices of different grades of industrial silicon, grade spreads, regional spreads, electricity prices, silica prices, and refined coal prices [5][8][10]. Downstream Product Prices - Charts display the prices of DMC, organic silicon products, polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components [12][14][16]. Inventory - Charts present the futures inventory of industrial silicon and polysilicon, the weekly industry inventory of industrial silicon, the weekly inventory change of industrial silicon, the weekly inventory of polysilicon, and the weekly inventory of DMC [19][23]. Cost and Profit - Charts show the average cost and profit levels of industrial silicon, the weekly cost - profit of industrial silicon, the processing industry profit of polysilicon, the cost - profit of DMC, and the cost - profit of aluminum alloy [25][27][29]. Team Introduction - Zhan Dapeng, a science master, is the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, a senior precious metals researcher, and a gold intermediate investment analyst. He has more than a decade of commodity research experience, serves many leading spot enterprises, and has published dozens of professional articles in public newspapers and magazines. His team has won the Best Metal Industry Futures Research Team Award from Futures Daily & Securities Times for four consecutive sessions [33]. - Wang Heng, a master of finance from the University of Adelaide, Australia, is a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly focusing on aluminum and silicon research. He won the 18th Best Green Finance New Material Futures Analyst Award from Futures Daily & Securities Times [33]. - Zhu Xi, a science master from the University of Warwick, UK, is a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly focusing on lithium and nickel research. She won the 18th Best Green Finance New Material Futures Analyst Award from Futures Daily & Securities Times [34].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Copper: Overnight, LME copper rose 3.99% to $12,673.5 per ton, and the SHFE copper main contract rose 1.85% to 99,220 yuan per ton. The import of domestic refined copper spot remained at a loss. The Fed's meeting minutes indicated a possible further interest - rate cut. In China, recent policies boosted market confidence. LME copper inventory decreased, Comex increased, and SHFE copper warehouse receipts rose. Downstream procurement became cautious, and copper prices were repaired due to domestic stimulus policies, but investors were reminded to operate cautiously during the New Year holiday [1]. - Aluminum: Overnight, alumina, Shanghai aluminum, and aluminum alloy all showed a slightly stronger trend. The SMM alumina price declined, and the aluminum ingot spot discount widened. Alumina factories had high ore reserves, and the cost of alumina continued to decline. The pressure for aluminum ingot inventory accumulation increased, and short - term macro - micro differences restricted the upward movement of near - month contracts [1][2]. - Nickel: Overnight, LME nickel rose 6.47% to $16,780 per ton, and SHFE nickel rose 3.64% to 134,400 yuan per ton. The planned nickel ore output in Indonesia in 2026 is expected to decrease significantly. The government plans to revise the mineral benchmark price calculation formula. The fundamentals showed that nickel ore prices were stable, nickel - iron prices rose, and stainless - steel inventory decreased. The theoretical profit of nickel sulfate turned negative. Supported by news, nickel prices strengthened, but the actual implementation remained uncertain [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Research Views - **Copper**: Overnight price increases, import losses, macro - policy impacts, inventory changes, and downstream procurement trends. In the domestic market, policies boosted confidence, and copper prices were repaired, but holiday risks existed [1]. - **Aluminum**: Overnight price increases, price and inventory changes in the spot market, alumina cost reduction, and inventory accumulation pressure [1][2]. - **Nickel**: Overnight price increases, news of production reduction and policy changes in Indonesia, stable domestic nickel ore prices, and changes in the stainless - steel and nickel - sulfate markets. News boosted nickel prices, but the actual situation was uncertain [2]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Copper**: Provided price, inventory, and other data on December 30 and 29, 2025, including changes in spot prices, scrap copper prices, and inventory levels [3]. - **Lead**: Presented price, inventory, and other data on December 30 and 29, 2025, including changes in lead prices, lead - concentrate prices, and inventory [3]. - **Aluminum**: Showed price, inventory, and other data on December 30 and 29, 2025, including changes in aluminum prices, aluminum - alloy prices, and inventory [4]. - **Nickel**: Offered price, inventory, and other data on December 30 and 29, 2025, including changes in nickel prices, nickel - alloy prices, and inventory [4]. - **Zinc**: Gave price, inventory, and other data on December 30 and 29, 2025, including changes in zinc prices, zinc - alloy prices, and inventory [6]. - **Tin**: Presented price, inventory, and other data on December 30 and 29, 2025, including changes in tin prices, tin - concentrate prices, and inventory [6]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Spot Premium**: Included charts of spot premiums for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [8][9][11][12]. - **SHFE Near - Far Month Spread**: Contained charts of SHFE near - far month spreads for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2020 - 2025 [14][18][19][20]. - **LME Inventory**: Had charts of LME inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [21][23][25]. - **SHFE Inventory**: Provided charts of SHFE inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [27][29][31]. - **Social Inventory**: Included charts of social inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series from 2019 - 2025 [33][35][37]. - **Smelting Profit**: Contained charts of copper - concentrate index, rough - copper processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless - steel 304 smelting profit rate from 2019 - 2025 [40][42][44]. 3.4 Team Introduction - The research team consists of Zhan Dapeng, Wang Heng, and Zhu Xi, who have rich experience and achievements in the non - ferrous metals research field, and are responsible for different research directions [47][48].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The report analyzes the performance of various black commodities on December 31, 2025, including steel, iron ore, coking coal, coke, ferromanganese silicon, and ferrosilicon. It provides insights into their price movements, supply - demand fundamentals, and future trends, suggesting that most commodities will show a narrow - range or wide - range oscillatory trend in the short term [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Steel**: The rebar futures market showed narrow - range fluctuations. The rebar 2605 contract closed at 3134 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. The spot price was basically stable, and the transaction volume declined. The supply from steel mills decreased, which would relieve market pressure to some extent. It is expected that the rebar futures market will continue to move in a narrow - range in the short term [1]. - **Iron Ore**: The main contract i2605 of iron ore futures decreased by 7.5 yuan/ton to 789 yuan/ton, a 0.9% decline. The supply from Australia and Brazil increased, while that from other countries decreased slightly. The global shipment reached a high level. The demand side was experiencing a stable output of molten iron, and port inventories continued to accumulate. The ore price is expected to oscillate under the influence of both long and short factors [1]. - **Coking Coal**: The coking coal futures market rose, with the 2605 contract closing at 1119.5 yuan/ton, a 2.9% increase. The supply side faced more safety inspections near the year - end, and downstream demand was cautious. The coking coal futures market is expected to have wide - range oscillations in the short term [1]. - **Coke**: The coke futures market rose, with the 2605 contract closing at 1715 yuan/ton, a 2.05% increase. The fourth round of price cuts in the coke market started. The demand from steel mills was stable, but their purchasing willingness was low. It is expected that the coke futures market will have wide - range oscillations in the short term [1]. - **Ferromanganese Silicon**: The ferromanganese silicon futures price strengthened with an oscillatory trend, with the main contract closing at 5942 yuan/ton, a 1.09% increase. The weekly output increased due to new production capacity and enterprise conversion. The demand was supported by pre - holiday purchasing from some steel mills. Inventory reached a new high, and the cost was supported by the firmness of manganese ore prices. It is expected to oscillate in the short term [1]. - **Ferrosilicon**: The ferrosilicon futures price strengthened with an oscillatory trend, with the main contract closing at 5750 yuan/ton, a 1.16% increase. The production was a mix of reduction and resumption, and the output decreased by 1.3% to 9.85 tons last week. The demand was supported by pre - holiday restocking from steel mills, and the inventory decreased. The cost was basically stable. It is expected to remain firm and oscillate in the short term [3]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Contract Spreads**: Data on contract spreads for different commodities such as rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, ferromanganese silicon, and ferrosilicon are provided, including the latest values and their changes compared to the previous period [2]. - **Basis**: The latest basis values and their changes for different contracts of various commodities are presented, along with the latest spot prices and their changes [2]. - **Profit and Spread**: Information on profits (such as rebar's disk profit, long - process profit, and short - process profit) and spreads (such as hot - rolled coil to rebar spread, rebar to iron ore ratio, etc.) is given, including the latest values and their changes [2]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Main Contract Prices**: Graphs show the closing prices of main contracts for rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, ferromanganese silicon, and ferrosilicon from 2020 to 2025 [5][6][7][8][9][10][14]. - **Main Contract Basis**: Graphs display the basis of main contracts for rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, ferromanganese silicon, and ferrosilicon [16][17][18][20][21][22][23]. - **Inter - period Contract Spreads**: Graphs present the spreads of inter - period contracts for rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, ferromanganese silicon, and ferrosilicon [25][27][31][33][34][37][38]. - **Inter - commodity Contract Spreads**: Graphs show the inter - commodity spreads, such as the hot - rolled coil to rebar spread, rebar to iron ore ratio, rebar to coke ratio, etc. [43][45][47]. - **Rebar Profits**: Graphs display the disk profit, long - process calculated profit, and short - process calculated profit of the rebar main contract [49][50][52][53]. 3.4 Black Research Team Members Introduction - The team includes members like Qiu Yuecheng, Zhang Xiaojin, Liu Xi, and Zhang Chunjie, each with their own professional backgrounds and qualifications [55][56].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report Core Viewpoints - On December 30, 2025, the lithium carbonate futures 2605 contract dropped 3.77% to 121,580 yuan/ton. The average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate remained at 118,000 yuan/ton, the average price of industrial-grade lithium carbonate stayed at 115,000 yuan/ton, and the price of battery-grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) held at 110,000 yuan/ton. The warehouse receipt inventory increased by 1,300 tons to 19,491 tons [3]. - On the supply side, the weekly production increased by 116 tons to 22,161 tons. Among them, lithium extraction from spodumene increased by 60 tons to 13,864 tons, lithium production from lepidolite rose by 40 tons to 2,866 tons, lithium extraction from salt lakes decreased by 20 tons to 3,075 tons, and lithium extraction from recycled materials increased by 36 tons to 2,356 tons. On the demand side, the weekly production of ternary materials decreased by 119 tons to 17,726 tons, and the inventory decreased by 89 tons to 18,002 tons. The weekly production of lithium iron phosphate decreased by 1,309 tons to 90,752 tons, and the inventory decreased by 1,386 tons to 100,885 tons. In terms of inventory, the weekly inventory decreased by 652 tons to 109,773 tons, with the downstream inventory decreasing by 1,593 tons to 39,892 tons, the inventory in other links increasing by 1,180 tons to 52,030 tons, and the upstream inventory decreasing by 239 tons to 17,851 tons [3]. - Although the inventory performance of consulting agencies shows a divergence, considering that cathode factories are expected to carry out maintenance in January, the fundamentals are weakening marginally. From the perspective of inventory turnover, the downstream replenishment motivation may be reflected in the price decline. However, it is necessary to actually pay attention to whether the price transmission to the downstream is smooth and whether strong demand can be verified. Additionally, due to the influence of holidays, the position - holding situation may amplify volatility [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Daily Data Monitoring - **Futures**: The closing price of the main contract was 121,580 yuan/ton, up 2,760 yuan from the previous day; the closing price of the continuous contract was 119,540 yuan/ton, up 1,560 yuan [5]. - **Lithium Ore**: The prices of lithium ore such as spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China), lepidolite (Li2O: 1.5% - 2.0%, 2.0% - 2.5%), and amblygonite (Li2O: 6% - 7%, 7% - 8%) remained unchanged [5]. - **Lithium Carbonate and Lithium Hydroxide**: The prices of battery - grade lithium carbonate, industrial - grade lithium carbonate, and various types of lithium hydroxide remained stable, except that the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (CIF China, Japan, and South Korea) increased by 0.28 US dollars/kg [5]. - **Lithium Hexafluorophosphate**: The price remained at 166,500 yuan/ton [5]. - **Price Spreads**: The price spreads between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, and between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate remained unchanged. The difference between CIF China, Japan, and South Korea battery - grade lithium hydroxide and SMM battery - grade lithium hydroxide increased by 1,990 yuan/ton [5]. - **Precursors and Cathode Materials**: The prices of some ternary precursors and cathode materials increased slightly, while the prices of lithium iron phosphate and manganese acid lithium remained stable, and the price of cobalt acid lithium increased by 1,000 yuan/ton [5]. - **Cells and Batteries**: The prices of some cells and batteries increased slightly, such as 523 square ternary cells, 523 soft - pack ternary cells, and cobalt acid lithium cells [5]. 2. Chart Analysis - **Ore Prices**: Charts show the price trends of spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF), lepidolite (1.5% - 2.0%, 2.0% - 2.5%), and amblygonite (6% - 7%) from 2024 to 2025 [6][8][10]. - **Lithium and Lithium Salt Prices**: Charts present the price trends of metal lithium, battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium hydroxide, and lithium hexafluorophosphate from 2024 to 2025 [11][13][15]. - **Price Spreads**: Charts display the price spreads between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, and other related spreads from 2024 to 2025 [17][20]. - **Precursors and Cathode Materials**: Charts show the price trends of ternary precursors, ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, manganese acid lithium, and cobalt acid lithium from 2024 to 2025 [24][25][28]. - **Lithium Battery Prices**: Charts present the price trends of 523 square ternary cells, square lithium iron phosphate cells, cobalt acid lithium cells, and square lithium iron phosphate batteries from 2024 to 2025 [29][33]. - **Inventory**: Charts show the weekly inventory trends of downstream, smelters, and other links from May to December 2025 [35][37]. - **Production Costs**: A chart shows the production profit trends of lithium carbonate from different raw materials such as外购三元极片黑粉, 外购磷酸铁锂极片黑粉, lithium mica concentrate, and spodumene concentrate from 2024 to 2025 [40][41].

区中大猪看弱情绪较浓，中大猪价格震荡下行，低价 11.8 元/公斤，高价 13.0 元 /公斤，标肥价差小幅走缩。广东市场生猪出栏均价为 13.02 元/公斤 ，较昨日价 格上涨 0.44 元/公斤，与赣桂湘均价价差 0.66 元/公斤， 规模场主流牌价为 12.40-12.90 元/公斤。7kg 仔猪规模厂牌价 270 元/头左右。110-130 公斤标猪与 150 公斤以上肥猪价差为-0.78 元/公斤。近期生猪主力 2603 合约以小阳线收盘， 期价区间随之上移。技术上，短期关注生猪 3 月合约底部表现，远期合约轻仓长 线多头参与。 二、市场信息 1. 民间出口商报告向中国出口销售 13.6 万吨大豆，对未知目的地出口销售 23.1 万吨大豆，均于 2025/2026 年度交付。 2. 巴西全国谷物出口商协会（ANEC）表示，巴西 12 月大豆出口量预计为 302 万吨，之前一周预计为 357 万吨。 农产品日报（2025 年 12 月 31 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For cotton, ICE US cotton dropped 0.08% to 64.3 cents per pound on Tuesday, while the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton rose 0.52% to 14,560 yuan per ton, with the position increasing by 7,966 lots to 876,600 lots. The spot price index of cotton 3128B was 15,280 yuan per ton, up 40 yuan. The international market has limited drivers, with US cotton in low - level oscillation. The domestic Zhengzhou cotton main contract increased in position and price, with market divergence. The market expects a reduction in cotton planting area in the new year, and there are also expectations for the adjustment of the cotton target price subsidy policy. In the short term, Zhengzhou cotton may adjust but has support at the bottom. The future focuses are the downstream textile enterprises' pre - Spring Festival restocking demand, possible macro - level reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts in the first quarter of next year, and the details of the new round of cotton target price subsidy policy usually announced around April 10th [1]. - For sugar, the spot quotes of sugar groups in different regions remained stable. Raw sugar prices fell by more than 2% at night and returned to the oscillation range. The market is dominated by the northern hemisphere's pressing rhythm. The domestic spot trading is tepid, and there is still some purchasing demand before the Spring Festival, which supports the price, but the market is cautious due to the increasing production situation, and it is difficult for the price to rise [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Data Monitoring | Variety | Contract Spread | Latest | Change | Main Basis | Change | Spot Location | Latest | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Cotton | 1 - 5 | 50 | 15 | 983 | - 123 | Xinjiang | 15,385 | 0 | | | | | | | | National | 15,543 | 2 | | Sugar | 1 - 5 | 10 | - 13 | 142 | - 5 | Nanning | 5,360 | 0 | | | | | | | | Liuzhou | 5,400 | 0 | [2] 3.2 Market Information - On December 30, the number of cotton futures warehouse receipts was 5,212, an increase of 127 from the previous trading day, and the effective forecast was 3,973 [3]. - On December 30, the arrival prices of cotton in different domestic regions were: Xinjiang 15,385 yuan/ton, Henan 15,581 yuan/ton, Shandong 15,581 yuan/ton, and Zhejiang 15,635 yuan/ton [3]. - On December 30, the comprehensive load of yarn was 49.7, a decrease of 0.1 from the previous day; the comprehensive inventory of yarn was 27, a decrease of 0.2 from the previous day; the comprehensive load of staple fiber cloth was 50.8, unchanged from the previous day; the comprehensive inventory of staple fiber cloth was 32.4, unchanged from the previous day [3]. - On December 30, the spot price of sugar in Nanning was 5,360 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day; in Liuzhou, it was 5,400 yuan/ton, also unchanged [3]. - On December 30, the number of sugar futures warehouse receipts was 5,182, an increase of 144 from the previous trading day, and the effective forecast was 2,991 [4]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - The report provides multiple charts for cotton and sugar, including the closing price of the main contract, the basis of the main contract, the 1 - 5 spread, the internal and external spread under 1% tariff quota, the warehouse receipts and effective forecasts, and the price index [6][8][9][10][11][13][14][16]. 3.4 Research Team - Zhang Xiaojin, the director of resource product research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, focuses on the sugar industry, participates in major projects of the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange and writing of series books of the China Futures Association, and has won many awards [18]. - Zhang Linglu, an analyst at Everbright Futures Research Institute, is in charge of research on futures varieties such as urea and soda - ash glass, participates in large - scale projects and topics, and has won many honors [19]. - Sun Chengzhen, an analyst at Everbright Futures Research Institute, is engaged in fundamental research and data analysis of varieties such as cotton, cotton yarn, and ferroalloy, participates in relevant topic writing of the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange, and has won awards [20].

光大期货煤化工商品日报 光大期货煤化工商品日报（2025 年 12 月 31 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 尿素 | 周二尿素期货价格坚挺震荡，主力05合约收盘价1743元/吨，涨幅0.46%。现货市场 | 坚挺 震荡 | | | 多数稳定，个别地区价格略微波动。昨日山东、河南地区市场价格分别为1710元/ | | | | 吨、1690元/吨，日环比分别持平、下跌10元/吨。近期尿素装置故障较多，供应水 | | | | 平持续回落，昨日行业日产量19.45万吨，日环比回落0.02万吨。需求情绪跟随市场 | | | | 情绪回暖，昨日主流地区产销率提升至100%及以上水平，个别地区产销率 200% | | | | ，但也仍有个别地区成交偏弱。短期尿素供需变化幅度依旧有限，期货盘面则受到 | | | | 小作文消息扰动、相关品种走强带动 表现坚挺，但尿素自身暂时缺乏持续性上涨 | | | | 动能，且节前资金流动较大，建议观望为主，轻仓或 仓 节。节后市场关注点仍 | | | | 在于印标结果及我国出口政策变化，阶段性题材发酵仍有短期右侧交易机会 ...