Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Copper prices are expected to continue a moderate recovery. The market has digested concerns about the US recession and shifted to expectations of Fed rate - cuts. Domestic CPI performance also spurs expectations of domestic growth - stabilizing policies, and the expected improvement in fundamentals during the "Golden September and Silver October" period will support copper prices [1]. - Aluminum prices are generally strong. Alumina,沪铝, and aluminum alloy are all showing a bullish trend. Although there is an oversupply situation in alumina, the overall aluminum market is in a macro - micro resonance mode, and the end of tax rebates for recycled aluminum restricts supply, making aluminum alloy relatively more resilient [1][2]. - Nickel prices may continue to be strong. With marginal improvements in nickel - iron and the new energy sectors, there are opportunities for long - positions at low prices. The cost support for stainless steel is strengthening, and the new energy raw material prices may remain strong due to tight supply [2]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Research Views Copper - Macro: US August PPI inflation unexpectedly declined, providing grounds for Fed rate - cuts. In China, the CPI turned negative year - on - year in August, and the PPI decline narrowed. The finance minister emphasized strengthening the domestic market and implementing more proactive macro - policies [1]. - Inventory: LME copper inventory decreased by 225 tons to 155,050 tons; Comex copper inventory increased by 916 tons to 280,056 tons; SHFE copper warehouse receipts increased by 45 tons to 19,126 tons; BC copper remained at 4,418 tons [1]. - Demand: As the peak season approaches, high copper prices have led to weak downstream procurement [1]. Aluminum - Price: Alumina,沪铝, and aluminum alloy all showed a bullish trend. AO2601 closed at 2,944 yuan/ton, up 0.75%; AL2510 closed at 20,830 yuan/ton, up 0.22%; AD2511 closed at 20,390 yuan/ton, up 0.2% [1]. - Inventory: The overall situation is complex, with changes in different varieties and trading venues [1][2]. - Market: Environmental protection restrictions in some areas have affected downstream start - up, and the inventory inflection point for aluminum ingots has been postponed [2]. Nickel - Price: LME nickel rose 0.43% to 15,170 US dollars/ton, and沪镍 rose 0.24% to 120,780 yuan/ton [2]. - Inventory: LME nickel inventory increased by 3,024 tons to 221,094 tons; domestic SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 295 tons to 22,304 tons [2]. - Market: Nickel - iron and new energy sectors are showing marginal improvements, and stainless steel cost support is strengthening [2]. 2. Daily Data Monitoring Copper - Price: The price of flat - water copper increased by 40 yuan/ton to 79,840 yuan/ton; the premium of flat - water copper decreased by 20 yuan/ton [3]. - Inventory: LME registered + cancelled inventory decreased by 550 tons; SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 155 tons; COMEX inventory increased by 1,739 tons; social inventory increased by 0.7 million tons [3]. Aluminum - Price: Wuxi and Nanhai aluminum prices increased; the price of Shandong alumina decreased by 30 yuan/ton; the price of ADC12 aluminum alloy in South China increased by 100 yuan/ton [5]. - Inventory: LME registered + cancelled inventory remained unchanged; SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 74 tons; total inventory decreased by 1,518 tons; alumina social inventory increased by 2.1 million tons [5]. Nickel - Price: The price of Jinchuan nickel decreased by 600 yuan/ton; the price of nickel - iron remained stable; the price of some stainless steel products increased [5]. - Inventory: LME registered + cancelled inventory increased by 456 tons; SHFE nickel warehouse receipts decreased by 173 tons; nickel social inventory increased by 460 tons [5]. Zinc - Price: The main settlement price decreased by 0.2%; SMM 0 and 1 spot prices increased by 50 yuan/ton; the prices of zinc alloy and zinc oxide also changed to varying degrees [7]. - Inventory: SHFE inventory increased by 793 tons; LME inventory remained unchanged; social inventory increased by 0.14 million tons [7]. Tin - Price: The main settlement price decreased by 0.5%; LME S3 price decreased by 2.1%; SMM spot price increased by 900 yuan/ton [7]. - Inventory: SHFE inventory increased by 207 tons; LME inventory remained unchanged [7]. 3. Chart Analysis - **Spot Premium**: Charts show the spot premium trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [9][11][12]. - **SHFE Near - Far Month Spread**: Charts display the near - far month spread trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2020 - 2025 [16][21]. - **LME Inventory**: Charts present the LME inventory trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [25][27][29]. - **SHFE Inventory**: Charts show the SHFE inventory trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [32][34][36]. - **Social Inventory**: Charts display the social inventory trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series stainless steel from 2019 - 2025 [38][40][42]. - **Smelting Profit**: Charts show the trends of copper concentrate index, rough copper processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless steel 304 smelting profit margin from 2019 - 2025 [45][47][49]. 4. Non - ferrous Metals Team Introduction - Zhan Dapeng, a master of science, is the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with extensive experience in commodity research and many awards [52]. - Wang Heng, a master of finance from the University of Adelaide, Australia, is a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures, focusing on aluminum and silicon research [52]. - Zhu Xi, a master of science from the University of Warwick, UK, is a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures, focusing on lithium and nickel research [53].

工业硅日报 工业硅&多晶硅日报（2025 年 9 月 11 日） 一、研究观点 点评 10 日工业硅震荡偏强，主力 2511 收于 8665 元/吨，日内涨幅 1.58%， 持仓减仓 7975 手至 27.8 万手。百川工业硅现货参考价 9359 元/吨，较 上一交易日持稳。最低交割品#421 价格回调至 8600 元/吨，现货升水 70 元/吨。多晶硅震荡偏弱，主力 2511 收于 52885 元/吨，日内跌幅 4.4%，持仓减仓 5908 手至 13.7 万手；多晶硅 N 型复投硅料价格涨至 52000 元/吨，最低交割品硅料价格跌至 52000 元/吨，现货贴水收至 885 元/吨。工业硅短期因需求预期修复叠加多晶硅政策情绪波及，下 跌情绪修复。交易所调整多晶硅手续费及成交限额，部分多头头寸离 场。短期市场仍在静待节能监察结果，政策预期给予较强底部支撑。 但排产持续增加叠加下游接受不佳，库存高压未解，多晶硅出现大幅 回涨难度较大。 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 EVERBRIGHT FUTURES 1 工业硅日报 二、日度数据监测 图表 1：工业硅各牌号价格（元/吨） 图表 2：牌号价差（单位：元/ ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall energy and chemical market is in a state of shock. The oil price is affected by geopolitical risks and inventory data, and it is expected to fluctuate. The fundamentals of fuel oil, asphalt, polyester, rubber, methanol, polyolefins, and PVC also have different influencing factors, and their prices are expected to show different trends of shock [1][2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Wednesday, the oil price center moved up. The WTI October contract closed up $1.04 to $63.67 per barrel, a 1.66% increase. The Brent November contract closed up $1.10 to $67.49 per barrel, also a 1.66% increase. SC2510 closed at 490.1 yuan per barrel, up 4.0 yuan per barrel, a 0.82% increase. The market is pricing in the increase in geopolitical risks, and the oil price is expected to fluctuate [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: On Wednesday, the main fuel oil contract FU2510 on the Shanghai Futures Exchange closed up 1.44% at 2,827 yuan per ton, and the low - sulfur fuel oil contract LU2511 closed up 0.48% at 3,383 yuan per ton. The supply in the Singapore area has increased recently. The fundamentals of FU and LU have no obvious driving force, and in the short term, attention should be paid to the fluctuations of the cost - side crude oil [2]. - **Asphalt**: On Wednesday, the main asphalt contract BU2510 on the Shanghai Futures Exchange closed up 0.55% at 3,463 yuan per ton. It is expected that the supply - demand contradiction will ease in September, and the asphalt price may have further upward space [2]. - **Polyester**: TA601 closed at 4,698 yuan per ton, up 0.43%. EG2601 closed at 4,319 yuan per ton, down 0.07%. It is expected that the PX price will fluctuate with the cost, the TA fundamentals have improvement expectations, and ethylene glycol is expected to fluctuate weakly [2][4]. - **Rubber**: On Wednesday, the main沪胶 contract RU2601 rose 40 yuan per ton to 15,980 yuan per ton. It is expected that the rubber price will be mainly in a strong - side shock, and close attention should be paid to the weather conditions in the production areas during the peak production season [4]. - **Methanol**: On Wednesday, the spot price in Taicang was 2,295 yuan per ton. It is expected that the methanol price will enter a stage - bottom [4][5]. - **Polyolefins**: On Wednesday, the mainstream price of East China wire - drawing was 6,750 - 6,960 yuan per ton. The polyolefins are gradually transitioning to a situation of both strong supply and demand, and the overall will show a weakly - fluctuating pattern [5]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC)**: On Wednesday, the PVC market in East China was in a shock - finishing state. It is expected that the PVC price will fluctuate weakly [5][6]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the basis data of various energy and chemical varieties on September 11, 2025, including spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, and their changes, as well as the quantile of the latest basis rate in historical data [7]. 3.3 Market News - Trump urged the EU to impose up to 100% "secondary tariffs" on China and encouraged similar measures against India. The EU official delegation will visit Washington this week to discuss joint actions to pressure Russia [11]. - The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said that as of the week ending September 5, U.S. commercial crude oil inventories increased by 3.9 million barrels to 424.6 million barrels, and U.S. crude oil exports decreased by 1.1 million barrels per day to 2.8 million barrels per day [11]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: The report provides the closing price charts of the main contracts of various energy and chemical varieties from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, etc. [13][15][17]. - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: The report provides the basis charts of the main contracts of various energy and chemical varieties from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. [26][28][32]. - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: The report provides the spread charts of inter - period contracts of various energy and chemical varieties, such as fuel oil, asphalt, PTA, etc. [41][43][46]. - **4.4 Inter - variety Spreads**: The report provides the spread charts of inter - variety contracts of various energy and chemical varieties, such as crude oil internal - external spreads, fuel oil high - low sulfur spreads, etc. [59][62]. - **4.5 Production Profits**: The report provides the production profit charts of various energy and chemical varieties, such as ethylene - based ethylene glycol cash flow, PP production profit, etc. [67][69]. 3.5 Team Member Introduction - The report introduces the members of the Guangda Futures Energy and Chemical Research Team, including Zhong Meiyan, Du Bingqin, Di Yilin, and Peng Haibo, and their positions, educational backgrounds, honors, and professional experiences [72][73][74].

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Stock Index Futures: Bullish [1] - Treasury Bond Futures: Range-bound [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - A-shares closed higher with the Wind All A index up 0.22% and a trading volume of 2 trillion yuan. The short-term correction is normal due to profit-taking, while long-term benefits from the Fed's dovish stance and potential rate cuts. Policy adjustments in Shanghai's housing market and the implementation of the childcare subsidy system are expected to boost the market. The liquidity-driven market will continue with obvious structural features and faster sector rotation [1]. - Treasury bond futures closed lower, with the 30-year, 10-year, 5-year, and 2-year main contracts down 0.86%, 0.27%, 0.15%, and 0.04% respectively. The central bank conducted 3040 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net injection of 749 billion yuan. The short-term bonds are relatively stable, while the long-term bonds are more volatile [1][2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Price Changes - Stock Index Futures: IH rose 0.42% to 2,937.8, IF rose 0.14% to 4,432.4, IC fell 0.14% to 6,863.4, and IM fell 0.21% to 7,151.0 [3]. - Stock Indexes: Shanghai Composite 50 rose 0.37% to 2,939.6, CSI 300 rose 0.21% to 4,445.4, CSI 500 rose 0.05% to 6,932.1, and CSI 1000 rose 0.06% to 7,230.2 [3]. - Treasury Bond Futures: TS fell 0.03% to 102.35, TF fell 0.14% to 105.43, T fell 0.26% to 107.49, and TL fell 0.83% to 114.76 [3]. 3.2 Market News - In August, the month-on-month PPI ended eight consecutive months of decline, turning flat from a 0.2% drop in the previous month. The year-on-year PPI fell 2.9%, with the decline narrowing by 0.7 percentage points from the previous month, the first narrowing since March this year [4]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - Stock Index Futures: The report provides charts of the trends and basis of IH, IF, IC, and IM main contracts [6][7][8][9][10]. - Treasury Bond Futures: The report includes charts of the trends, yields, basis, inter - period spreads, cross - variety spreads, and funding rates of treasury bond futures [12][15][16][17]. - Exchange Rates: The report presents charts of the central parity rates of the US dollar, euro against the RMB, forward exchange rates, and various currency pairs [20][21][22][24][25][28]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - On September 9, 2025, the 2511 contract of lithium carbonate futures dropped 2.62% to 72,900 yuan/ton. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate remained at 74,600 yuan/ton, the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate remained at 72,350 yuan/ton, and the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) decreased by 150 yuan/ton to 75,200 yuan/ton. The warehouse receipt inventory increased by 650 tons to 38,101 tons [3]. - Ningde Times' subsidiary held a meeting on the resumption of the Shixiawo lithium mine. The mining permit approval is progressing smoothly, and it is expected to resume production soon, which may reduce the short - term price of lithium carbonate, but the actual resumption time needs further attention [3]. - In terms of supply, the weekly production increased by 389 tons to 19,419 tons, and the expected production in September increased by 1.7% to 86,730 tons. In terms of demand, the expected production of ternary materials in September decreased by 1.5% to 72,330 tons, while the expected production of lithium iron phosphate increased by 6% to 335,250 tons. In terms of inventory, the weekly inventory decreased by 1,044 tons to 140,092 tons [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Data Monitoring - **Futures**: The closing price of the main contract decreased by 1,900 yuan/ton to 72,900 yuan/ton, and the closing price of the continuous contract decreased by 2,440 yuan/ton to 72,820 yuan/ton [5]. - **Lithium Ore**: The price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) increased by 3 dollars/ton to 879 dollars/ton, while the prices of other lithium ores remained unchanged [5]. - **Lithium and Lithium Salts**: The price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) decreased by 150 yuan/ton to 75,200 yuan/ton, and the prices of other related products were mostly stable [5]. - **Price Differences**: The price difference between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 150 yuan/ton to 600 yuan/ton, and other price differences had different changes [5]. - **Precursors and Cathode Materials**: The prices of some ternary precursors and cathode materials increased slightly, while the prices of manganese - acid lithium decreased by 500 yuan/ton [5]. - **Lithium Batteries**: The prices of some lithium battery cells and batteries increased slightly [5]. 3.2 Chart Analysis - **Ore Prices**: There are charts showing the price trends of lithium spodumene concentrate, lithium mica, and other ores from 2024 to 2025 [6][8]. - **Lithium and Lithium Salt Prices**: There are charts showing the price trends of metal lithium, battery - grade lithium carbonate, industrial - grade lithium carbonate, etc. from 2024 to 2025 [10][13]. - **Price Differences**: There are charts showing the price differences between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade lithium carbonate and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, etc. from 2024 to 2025 [17][18]. - **Precursors and Cathode Materials**: There are charts showing the price trends of ternary precursors, ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, manganese - acid lithium, and cobalt - acid lithium from 2024 to 2025 [23][25][27]. - **Lithium Battery Prices**: There are charts showing the price trends of 523 square ternary cells, square lithium iron phosphate cells, cobalt - acid lithium cells, etc. from 2024 to 2025 [29][32]. - **Inventory**: There are charts showing the inventory trends of downstream, smelters, and other links from January to September 2025 [36][38]. - **Production Costs**: There is a chart showing the production profit trends of lithium carbonate from different raw materials from 2024 to 2025 [42].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Copper**: Overnight, LME copper fluctuated weakly, and SHFE copper had a narrow - range fluctuation. US employment data led to a restart of the market's expectation of Fed rate cuts and increased concerns about a US recession, affecting the non - ferrous market sentiment. Although the peak season is approaching, high copper prices have made downstream buyers hesitant, resulting in weak procurement. LME copper inventory decreased by 550 tons to 155,275 tons, Comex copper inventory increased by 1,739 tons to 279,140 tons, SHFE copper warrants increased by 155 tons to 19,081 tons, and BC copper decreased by 502 tons to 4,418 tons [1]. - **Aluminum**: Alumina fluctuated weakly, while Shanghai aluminum and aluminum alloy fluctuated strongly. Alumina's excess pattern is difficult to reverse, and the import increase adds pressure. Electrolytic aluminum starts a macro - micro resonance mode. With the Fed's possible rate cut in September, the start - up of downstream industries in some areas is restricted by environmental protection, and the inventory inflection point of aluminum ingots is postponed. The end of tax rebates for recycled aluminum restricts supply, and aluminum alloy is relatively more resilient than electrolytic aluminum in the short term [1][2]. - **Nickel**: Overnight, LME nickel fell 0.49% to $15,105 per ton, and Shanghai nickel fell 0.45% to 120,400 yuan per ton. LME nickel inventory increased by 456 tons to 218,070 tons, and domestic SHFE warrants decreased by 173 tons to 22,599 tons. Nickel ore prices were stable. Stainless - steel inventory decreased slightly week - on - week, but supply increased. In the new - energy sector, demand in September weakened slightly month - on - month, but raw - material supply was relatively tight. With the marginal improvement of ferronickel and new - energy sectors, opportunities for buying on dips can be considered [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Data Monitoring - **Copper**: On September 9, 2025, the price of flat - water copper was 79,840 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan from the previous day, and the flat - water copper premium was 40 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan. The price of 1 bright scrap copper in Guangdong remained unchanged at 73,500 yuan/ton. LME copper registered + cancelled inventory decreased by 550 tons to 155,275 tons, SHFE copper warrants increased by 155 tons to 19,081 tons, and the total inventory increased by 2,103 tons to 81,851 tons. COMEX copper inventory increased by 1,739 tons to 279,137 tons, and the domestic + bonded - area social inventory increased by 0.7 million tons to 21.4 million tons [3]. - **Lead**: On September 9, 2025, the average price of 1 lead in the Yangtze River was 16,860 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan from the previous day. The LME registered + cancelled inventory remained unchanged at 239,325 tons, and the SHFE warrants increased by 25 tons to 53,820 tons, with the weekly inventory increasing by 2,162 tons to 66,834 tons [3]. - **Aluminum**: On September 9, 2025, the Wuxi quotation was 20,740 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan from the previous day, and the Nanhai quotation was 20,730 yuan/ton, up 110 yuan. The price of Shandong alumina decreased by 30 yuan to 3,030 yuan/ton. LME aluminum registered + cancelled inventory remained unchanged at 485,275 tons, SHFE aluminum warrants decreased by 74 tons to 64,459 tons, and the total inventory decreased by 1,518 tons to 124,078 tons. The weekly social inventory of alumina increased by 2.1 million tons to 8.1 million tons [5]. - **Nickel**: On September 9, 2025, the price of Jinchuan nickel plates was 123,000 yuan/ton, down 600 yuan from the previous day. LME nickel registered + cancelled inventory increased by 456 tons to 218,070 tons, SHFE nickel warrants decreased by 173 tons to 22,599 tons, and the weekly nickel inventory increased by 547 tons to 26,986 tons. The weekly social inventory of nickel increased by 460 tons to 39,930 tons [5]. - **Zinc**: On September 9, 2025, the main - contract settlement price was 22,200 yuan/ton, down 0.2% from the previous day. The SMM 0 spot price was 22,190 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan. The weekly SHFE inventory increased by 793 tons to 6,268 tons, and the LME inventory remained unchanged at 51,025 tons. The weekly social inventory increased by 0.14 million tons to 13.99 million tons [6]. - **Tin**: On September 9, 2025, the main - contract settlement price was 269,790 yuan/ton, down 0.5% from the previous day. The SMM spot price was 270,400 yuan/ton, up 900 yuan. The weekly SHFE inventory increased by 207 tons to 7,773 tons, and the LME inventory remained unchanged at 2,355 tons [6]. 3.2 Chart Analysis - **Spot Premium**: The report provides copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin spot premium charts from 2019 - 2025, showing the historical trends of spot premiums for these metals [8][10][11]. - **SHFE Near - Far Month Spread**: Charts show the near - far month spreads of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2020 - 2025, reflecting the price differences between near - term and far - term contracts [15][20][23]. - **LME Inventory**: The report presents LME inventory charts of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025, showing the historical changes in LME inventories of these metals [24][26][28]. - **SHFE Inventory**: Charts display SHFE inventory trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025, reflecting the historical changes in SHFE inventories [31][33][35]. - **Social Inventory**: The report includes social inventory charts of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series stainless steel from 2019 - 2025, showing the historical trends of social inventories [37][39][41]. - **Smelting Profit**: The report provides charts of copper concentrate index, rough - copper processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, ferronickel smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless - steel 304 smelting profit margin from 2019 - 2025, reflecting the historical trends of smelting profits in the non - ferrous metal industry [44][46][48].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment ratings for various black commodities are as follows: Steel (narrow - range consolidation), Iron Ore (oscillation), Coking Coal (oscillation), Coke (oscillation), Manganese Silicon (oscillation), and Silicon Ferrosilicon (oscillation) [1][2][4] Core Viewpoints - Steel: The rebar futures market showed a weak oscillation. High production, low demand, and inventory accumulation in the peak season pressured prices. However, as steel prices fell, cost support increased. It is expected to move in a narrow - range in the short term [1] - Iron Ore: The futures price rose. Supply saw a decline in global shipments, and demand had a drop in iron - water production and a decline in the steel mill profitability rate. With multiple factors at play, it is expected to oscillate in the short term [1] - Coking Coal: The futures price dropped. Some mines in the main production areas resumed production, and downstream procurement was cautious. After the first round of coke price cuts, the demand for coking coal was weak. It is expected to oscillate in the short term [1] - Coke: The futures price declined. Coke production increased due to good profit margins, while steel mills' demand was mainly for on - demand procurement. It is expected to oscillate in the short term [1] - Manganese Silicon: The futures price strengthened. Steel procurement showed new progress, but production was at a relatively high level, and demand was not strong. It is expected to follow the black market's oscillation [1] - Silicon Ferrosilicon: The futures price strengthened. Steel procurement increased, but production was high, and inventory reached a five - year high. It is expected to follow the black market's oscillation [2] Summary by Directory 1. Research Views - Steel: The rebar 2601 contract closed at 3123 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan/ton (0.29%). Spot prices were stable, and trading volume decreased slightly. Production was high, demand was low, and inventory was accumulating. Cost support increased [1] - Iron Ore: The i2601 contract closed at 805 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan/ton (1.6%). Spot prices were strong. Global shipments decreased, and iron - water production and steel mill inventories declined [1] - Coking Coal: The 2601 contract closed at 1123.5 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton (1.75%). Spot prices in some areas changed. Mines resumed production, and downstream procurement was cautious [1] - Coke: The 2601 contract closed at 1597.5 yuan/ton, down 22.5 yuan/ton (1.39%). Spot prices fell. Coke production increased, and steel mills' demand was for on - demand procurement [1] - Manganese Silicon: The futures price was 5838 yuan/ton, up 0.55%. Steel procurement increased, production was high, and inventory increased [1] - Silicon Ferrosilicon: The futures price was 5620 yuan/ton, up 0.75%. Steel procurement increased, production was high, and inventory reached a five - year high [2] 2. Daily Data Monitoring - Contract Spreads: Different contracts of various commodities had different spreads and changes. For example, the 1 - 5 month spread of rebar was - 47.0, down 3.0 [3] - Basis: The basis of different contracts also changed. For instance, the 01 contract basis of rebar was 117.0, up 9.0 [3] - Spot Prices: Spot prices of different commodities in different regions had various changes. For example, the Shanghai rebar spot price was 3240.0, unchanged [3] - Profits and Spreads: Different profit indicators and inter - commodity spreads changed. For example, the rebar futures profit was - 47.0, down 19.2 [3] 3. Chart Analysis - 3.1 Main Contract Prices: Charts showed the historical closing prices of main contracts of various black commodities from 2020 to 2025 [6][7][8][9][11][15] - 3.2 Main Contract Basis: Charts presented the historical basis of main contracts of various black commodities [17][18][19][21][22][24] - 3.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads: Charts displayed the historical spreads of different contracts of various black commodities [26][28][29][30][31][33][34][35][37][39] - 3.4 Inter - commodity Contract Spreads: Charts showed the historical spreads and ratios between different commodities, such as the coil - rebar spread and the rebar - iron ore ratio [41][42][43][45] - 3.5 Rebar Profits: Charts presented the historical profits of rebar main contracts, including futures profits, long - process profits, and short - process profits [46][47][48][49][51] 4. Black Research Team Members Introduction - The black research team includes Qiu Yuecheng, Zhang Xiaojin, Liu Xi, and Zhang Chunjie, each with rich experience and professional qualifications in the black commodity research field [53][54]

Group 1: Investment Ratings - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. Group 2: Core Views - Corn: The corn market shows different trends in different regions. In the Northeast, prices are rising, while in North China, prices are falling. Technically, the short - term price is adjusted, and the medium - term is expected to be weak due to high yield and lower costs [1]. - Soybean and Bean Meal: CBOT soybeans fell as investors adjusted positions before the supply - demand report, which is expected to show a slight decline in US soybean yield but still high production. Domestic bean meal prices are mainly oscillating, and short - term participation is recommended [1]. - Palm Oil and Other Oils: BMD palm oil declined due to the strengthening of the Malaysian ringgit. Domestic oil futures prices are narrowly oscillating, and strategies such as increasing volatility or selling put options are recommended [1]. - Eggs: Egg futures rebounded, and spot prices are stable. The supply will affect egg prices in the future, and it is recommended to wait and see [1]. - Pigs: Pig futures are weakly oscillating, and spot prices are also weak. The anti - dumping measures have limited impact, and the market sentiment should be monitored [2]. Group 3: Market Information Summary - Canadian Agricultural Production: As of July 31, Canada's wheat production was 35.94 million tons, and the ending inventory was 4.11 million tons; rapeseed production was 19.24 million tons, and the ending inventory was 1.60 million tons [3]. - Domestic Inventory: As of the end of the 36th week of 2025, domestic soybean oil inventory increased by 1.60% week - on - week, bean meal inventory increased by 9.09% week - on - week, and imported rapeseed oil inventory decreased by 4.01% week - on - week [3]. - Trading Arrangement: On September 11, 2025, a domestic soybean auction will be held, selling 22,500 tons of domestic soybeans [3]. - US Crop Forecast: Analysts expect US soybean production in the 2025/26 season to be 4.271 billion bushels, lower than the August estimate [3]. Group 4: Variety Spread - Contract Spread: The report shows various contract spreads such as corn 1 - 5, corn starch 1 - 5, etc., but no specific data analysis is provided [4][5][6] - Contract Basis: The report shows various contract bases such as corn basis, soybean basis, etc., but no specific data analysis is provided [12][13][16] Group 5: Research Team Introduction - The research team includes Wang Na, the director of the agricultural product research at Everbright Futures Research Institute; Hou Xueling, a soybean analyst; and Kong Hailan, a researcher on eggs and pigs [27]

工业硅日报 工业硅&多晶硅日报（2025 年 9 月 10 日） 一、研究观点 工业硅日报 二、日度数据监测 | | 二、日度数据监测 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 分 | 项 | 2025/9/8 | 2025/9/9 | 涨 跌 | | | | | 工业硅 | | | | | 期货结算价（元/吨） | 主力 | 8545 | 8530 | -15 | | | | 近月 | 8690 | 8555 | -135 | | | | 不通氧553#硅(华东) | 8950 | 8950 | 0 | | | | 不通氧553#硅(黄埔港) | 9000 | 9000 | 0 | | | 不通氧553#现货价格 | 不通氧553#硅(天津港) | 8850 | 8850 | 0 | | | （元/吨） | 不通氧553#硅(昆明) | 9000 | 9000 | 0 | | | | 不通氧553#硅(四川) | 8650 | 8650 | 0 | | | | 不通氧553#硅(上海) | 9350 | 9350 | 0 | | | | 通氧55 ...

Group 1: Investment Ratings - Urea: Bullish [1] - Soda Ash: Bearish [1] - Glass: Bearish [1] Group 2: Core Views - Urea futures prices fluctuated weakly on Tuesday, with the main 01 contract closing at 1,683 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.17%. The spot market continued to weaken, and the supply level fluctuated narrowly. The demand side remained cautious, and the average sales-to-production ratio was only 25%. The Indian tender results are still being announced, and if the procurement volume and China's supply exceed expectations, the futures price may be bullish in the short term; otherwise, it will be under pressure [1]. - Soda ash futures prices fluctuated weakly on Tuesday, with the main 01 contract closing at 1,278 yuan/ton, a slight decline of 0.62%. The spot market quotation was stable, and the production level declined slightly. The demand side followed up as needed, and the market lacked new themes and drivers. It is expected that the short-term futures price will be bearish [1]. - Glass futures prices fluctuated strongly on Tuesday, with the main 01 contract closing at 1,192 yuan/ton, a slight increase of 0.34%. The spot market quotation increased slightly, and the demand side improved. However, the marginal change in supply and demand was limited, and the short-term futures price was bearish [1]. Group 3: Market Information Urea - On September 9, the number of urea futures warehouse receipts was 8,843, an increase of 76 from the previous trading day, and the valid forecast was 75 [4]. - On September 9, the daily output of the urea industry was 183,200 tons, a decrease of 2,100 tons from the previous working day and a decrease of 800 tons from the same period last year. The industry operating rate was 78.31%, a decrease of 4.23 percentage points from 82.54% in the same period last year [4]. - On September 9, the spot prices of small-grain urea in various regions of China were as follows: Shandong 1,680 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; Henan 1,690 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; Hebei 1,710 yuan/ton, unchanged; Anhui 1,690 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; Jiangsu 1,680 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; Shanxi 1,580 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan [4]. Soda Ash & Glass - On September 9, the number of soda ash futures warehouse receipts was 7,759, a decrease of 440 from the previous trading day, and the valid forecast was 3,157. The number of glass futures warehouse receipts was 2,093, a decrease of 3 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [6]. - On September 9, the spot prices of soda ash in various regions were unchanged from the previous day [6]. - On September 9, the daily operating rate of the soda ash industry was 86.76%, compared with 88.71% on the previous working day [7]. - On September 9, the average price of the float glass market was 1,163 yuan/ton, an increase of 4 yuan/ton from the previous day, and the daily output of the industry was 160,200 tons, unchanged from the previous day [7]. Group 4: Chart Analysis - The report includes 12 charts, showing the closing prices, basis, trading volume, and positions of urea and soda ash futures, as well as the spot price trends of urea, soda ash, and glass, and the futures price spreads between urea and methanol, and glass and soda ash [9][11][13]