光大期货煤化工商品日报 光大期货煤化工商品日报（2025 年 6 月 11 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周二尿素期货价格先扬后抑，波动幅度提升。截至收盘主力09合约报1678元/吨， 跌幅1.24%。现货市场局部止跌企稳，少部分地区仍有下调。山东、河南地区市场 | | | | 价格昨日均稳定在1760元/吨。基本面来看，尿素供应水平高位波动，昨日行业日 | | | | 产量20.28万吨，日环比降0.23万吨。需求端跟进力度依旧欠缺，主流地区现货产销 | | | 尿素 | 率昨日7%-70%区间波动，国内整体产销率31%。6月下旬需求仍有释放预期，但当 | 震荡 | | | 前对市场情绪扰动较多的仍是出口相关动态。在看到更加确定性的驱动之前，尿素 | | | | 产业心态依旧偏弱。期货市场弱势状态暂时难以扭转，后期关注需求释放力度、出 | | | | 口相关政策、成本支撑等逻辑能否给盘面带来止跌企稳迹象。 | | | | 周二纯碱期货价格坚挺震荡，主力09合约收盘价1208元/吨，微幅下跌0.41%。现货 | | | | 市场报价多数稳 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Copper is expected to continue its volatile pattern for some time, with the range of 78,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton being closely watched. Favorable factors for bulls include a weak US dollar, inventory reduction, low inventory levels, tight domestic spot supply, and uncertainty over potential tariff hikes in the US 232 investigation. Key bearish factors are the US government's inconsistent tariff stance and the resulting uncertainty in the global economic outlook [1]. - Aluminum is undergoing a weak adjustment. Alumina enterprises are resuming production, leading to increased pressure on spot inventory. The reduction in bauxite price support has caused alumina prices to adjust based on cost. Aluminum ingot inventory is decreasing, but the speed of turnover and inventory reduction has slowed down. The price of aluminum alloy may fluctuate around the Baotai price in the short - term [1][2]. - Nickel is expected to remain range - bound. Although the cost of raw materials is firm and the fundamentals of primary nickel are improving, upward movement is restricted by weak downstream demand. Attention should be paid to the premium of nickel ore and the inventory of primary nickel [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views Copper - Overnight, LME copper fell 0.45% to $9,725/ton, and SHFE copper主力 dropped 0.13% to 79,030 yuan/ton. Domestic spot imports are in a continuous loss. In May, US consumers' inflation expectations declined for the first time since 2024, and consumer confidence improved. China's May CPI decreased by 0.1% year - on - year, and PPI's year - on - year decline widened to 3.3%. China's exports in May increased by 4.8% year - on - year in US dollars, while imports decreased by 3.4%. LME copper inventory decreased to 120,400 tons, Comex copper inventory increased to 173,215 tons, SHFE copper warehouse receipts decreased to 33,746 tons, and BC copper warehouse receipts increased to 804 tons. With the arrival of the off - season, terminal demand orders are gradually slowing down [1]. Aluminum - On the first trading day, aluminum alloy showed a pattern of rising and then falling. The main contract AD2511 closed at 19,190 yuan/ton, up 4.49%. Alumina showed a weak and volatile trend, with the overnight AO2509 closing at 2,888 yuan/ton, down 0.24%. Shanghai aluminum also showed a weak and volatile trend, with the overnight AL2507 closing at 20,050 yuan/ton, up 0.25%. The SMM alumina price dropped to 3,262 yuan/ton, and the aluminum ingot spot premium was 70 yuan/ton. Alumina enterprises are resuming production, and inventory pressure is increasing. The reduction in bauxite price support has led to an adjustment in alumina prices based on cost. The proportion of molten aluminum has increased, and the arrival of aluminum ingots has decreased, but the speed of inventory reduction has slowed down [1][2]. Nickel - Overnight, LME nickel fell 0.23% to $15,330/ton, and Shanghai nickel fell 0.25% to 121,360 yuan/ton. LME nickel inventory decreased to 198,126 tons, and domestic SHFE nickel warehouse receipts decreased to 21,041 tons. The LME 0 - 3 month premium remained negative, and the import nickel premium was 100 yuan/ton. Nickel ore prices are firm, and domestic nickel - iron transaction prices show a slight rebound. In the stainless - steel sector, raw material prices are stable, and inventory has increased on a weekly basis. Production cuts in China and Indonesia in June will gradually ease the overall oversupply situation, but in the medium - term, it will still be constrained by weak terminal demand. In the new energy sector, prices are stable, and there is little new demand in June. In June, the supply of primary nickel continued to decline month - on - month, and domestic weekly inventory decreased [2]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring Copper - Market prices: The price of flat - copper increased by 400 yuan/ton, the price of 1 bright scrap copper in Guangdong rose by 300 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap price difference in Guangdong increased by 119 yuan/ton. The prices of downstream products such as oxygen - free copper rods and low - oxygen copper rods also increased. - Inventory: LME copper inventory decreased by 2,000 tons, Comex copper inventory increased by 1,672 tons, SHFE copper warehouse receipts decreased by 496 tons, and the total social inventory (including bonded areas) remained unchanged [4]. Lead - Market prices: The average price of 1 lead increased by 110 yuan/ton, and the prices of recycled lead products also rose. The price of lead concentrate at the factory increased by 100 yuan/ton in some areas. - Inventory: LME lead inventory decreased by 1,950 tons, and SHFE lead warehouse receipts increased by 399 tons [4]. Aluminum - Market prices: The Wuxi and Nanhai aluminum prices decreased, and the price difference between Nanhai and Wuxi widened. The price of some aluminum alloy products decreased, and the processing fee of some downstream aluminum products increased. - Inventory: LME aluminum inventory decreased by 2,100 tons, SHFE aluminum warehouse receipts decreased by 175 tons, and the total social inventory of electrolytic aluminum remained unchanged, while the social inventory of alumina increased by 4.1 tons [5]. Nickel - Market prices: The price of Jinchuan nickel decreased by 1,100 yuan/ton, and the prices of some stainless - steel products also declined. The price of nickel ore was stable, and the price of new - energy nickel products decreased. - Inventory: LME nickel inventory decreased by 966 tons, SHFE nickel warehouse receipts decreased by 151 tons, and the total social inventory of nickel decreased by 2,178 tons [5]. Zinc - Market prices: The main settlement price of zinc decreased by 1.2%, and the prices of spot zinc and zinc alloy products dropped. The LME 0 - 3 premium decreased. - Inventory: LME zinc inventory decreased by 1,050 tons, SHFE zinc inventory increased by 793 tons, and the social inventory increased by 0.28 million tons [6]. Tin - Market prices: The main settlement price of tin increased by 0.3%, and the spot price and the price of tin concentrate rose. The LME 0 - 3 premium decreased. - Inventory: LME tin inventory decreased by 25 tons, and SHFE tin inventory decreased by 735 tons [6]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - The report provides multiple charts, including those related to spot premiums, SHFE near - far month spreads, LME inventory, SHFE inventory, social inventory, and smelting profits of various non - ferrous metals from 2019 to 2025. These charts visually display the historical trends of relevant data [7][8][13][20][26][32][39]. 3.4 Non - ferrous Metals Team Introduction - Zhan Dapeng, a master of science, is the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, a senior researcher in precious metals, a gold intermediate investment analyst, an outstanding metal analyst of the Shanghai Futures Exchange, and the best industrial product futures analyst of Futures Daily and Securities Times. He has over a decade of experience in commodity research, serves many leading spot enterprises, and has published dozens of professional articles in public newspapers and magazines. His team has won multiple industry awards [46]. - Wang Heng, a master of finance from the University of Adelaide, Australia, is a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, focusing on aluminum and silicon research. - Zhu Xi, a master of science from the University of Warwick, UK, is a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with a focus on lithium and nickel research [47].

碳酸锂日报 碳酸锂日报（2025 年 6 月 11 日） 一、研究观点 点 评 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 EVERBRIGHT FUTURES 1 二、日度数据监测 | | | 锂电产业链产品价格 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 指 标 | 单 位 | 2025-06-10 2025-06-09 | | 涨 跌 | | | 期 货 | 主力合约收盘价 | 元/吨 | 60760 | 60700 | 60 | | | | 连续合约收盘价 | 元/吨 | 61000 | 60540 | 460 | | | | 锂辉石精矿(6%,CIF中国) | 美元/吨 | 628 | 628 | 0 | | | | 锂云母（Li2O:1.5%-2.0%） | 元/吨 | 675 | 675 | 0 | | | 锂 矿 | 锂云母（Li2O:2.0%-2.5%） | 元/吨 | 1185 | 1185 | 0 | | | | 磷锂铝石（Li2O:6%-7%） | 元/吨 | 5620 | 5620 | 0 | | | | 磷锂铝石（L ...

农产品日报（2025 年 6 月 11 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周二，玉米继续减仓上行，近月期价跟随现货上涨，近月领涨、远期合约跟涨， 坚挺，低价出货意向稍显一般。东北深加工主流收购价格与产区基本顺价，对行 上调 10-20 元/吨。前期到货的东北粮源陆续消化完毕，华北本地小麦开始收割 上市，贸易商主要开始小麦的收割。周末河南地区启动小麦最低保护价收购政策。 | 震荡 | | | 长阳线打破近期慢涨模式。现货市场方面，东北产区余粮有限，贸易商心态较为 | | | | 情也暂无明显不利影响。周末华北地区玉米价格整体偏强运行，深加工企业普遍 | | | 玉米 | 周末销区市场玉米价格继续稳定运行。港口贸易商报价暂无较大变化，新季小麦 | | | | 继续上市，各企业关注小麦价格较多，小麦与玉米到部分饲料厂基本同价，小麦 | | | | 替代优势较大。技术上，玉米近月合约空头主力减仓离场，期价快速拉升，现货 | | | | 强势对期货的提振体现出来，近月率先领涨，近远月价差拉大。其后，远月跟随 | | | | 近月上行，在玉米和淀粉的对比 ...

光大期货能化商品日报 光大期货能化商品日报（2025 年 6 月 11 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周二油价重心回落，其中 WTI 7 月合约收盘下跌 0.31 美元至 64.98 | | | | 美元/桶，跌幅 0.47%。布伦特 8 月合约收盘下跌 0.17 美元至 66.87 | | | | 美元/桶，跌幅 0.25%。SC2507 以 481.5 元/桶收盘，上涨 2.6 元/ | | | | 桶，涨幅为 0.54%。EIA 发布月度短观能源展望报告，预计 2025 | | | | 年全球石油产量为 1.044 亿桶/日，较此前预测的 1.041 亿桶/日上 | | | | 调 30 万桶/日。预计 2025 年全球石油需求为 1.035 亿桶/日，较此 | | | | 前预测的 1.037 亿桶/日下调 20 万桶/日。此外，EIA 预计 2025 年 | | | 原油 | 美国石油日产量为 1342 万桶，与此前预期持平。预计 2025 年美 | 反弹 | | | 国石油需求为 2040 万桶/日，较此前预测的 2050 万 ...

光大期货金融期货日报 | 债市关注点再度回归资金面变化。受到同业存单到期压力较大、政府债发行 | | | --- | --- | | 继续放量影响，市场对 | 6 月资金面阶段性收紧担忧有所增加。上周四央行提 | | 前公布 | 3 个月期买断式逆回购操作量净投放 5000 亿元，市场资金面担忧明 | | 显缓解，债市呈现小幅牛陡走势。短期来看，资金面紧张预期走弱，债市有 | | | 望偏强震荡。 | | 光大期货金融期货日报 光大期货金融期货日报（2025 年 06 月 11 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 昨日，A 股市场多数指数回调，Wind 全 A 下跌 0.68%，成交额 1.45 万亿元。 | | | | 中证 1000 指数下跌 0.92%，中证 500 指数下跌 0.82%，沪深 300 指数下跌 | | | | 0.51%，上证 50 指数下跌 0.39%。指数午盘后快速下跌，之后回升企稳，TMT | | | | 板块回调明显。自 6 月以来，中国资产表现偏强，股债齐升，计价 6 月可能 | | | | 存在的政策变化。其 ...

06 月 09 日，上证综指涨跌幅 0.43%，收于 3399.77 点，成交额 5118.8 亿元，深成指数涨跌幅 0.65%，收于 10250.14 点，成交额 7745.12 亿元。 中证 1000 指数涨跌幅 1.07%，成交额 2557.85 亿元，其中开盘价 6161.14，收盘价 6218.96，当日最高价 6226.38，最低价 6158.9； 中证 500 指数涨跌幅 0.76%，成交额 1714.82 亿元，其中开盘价 5772.78，收盘价 5805.65，当日最高价 5823.9，最低价 5765.35； 沪深 300 指数涨跌幅 0.29%，成交额 2620.24 亿元，其中开盘价 3877.8，收盘价 3885.25，当日最高价 3894.65，最低价 3871.99； 上证 50 指数涨跌幅-0.08%，成交额 652.16 亿元，其中开盘价 2689.73，收盘价 2686.83，当日最高价 2698.36，最低价 2681.69。 数据来源：Wind，光期研究所 数据来源：Wind，光期研究所 二、板块涨跌对指数影响 中证 1000 较前收盘价上涨 66.12 点，医药生物, ...

工业硅日报 工业硅&多晶硅日报（2025 年 6 月 10 日） 一、研究观点 点评 9 日多晶硅震荡偏弱，主力 2507 收于 34105 元/吨，日内跌幅 2.24%，持 仓减仓 796 手至 64383 手；SMM 多晶硅 N 型硅料价格 36500 元/吨，最低 交割品 N 型硅料价格持稳在 36500 元/吨，现货对主力升水扩至 2395 元/ 吨。工业硅震荡偏强，主力 2507 收于 7475 元/吨，日内涨幅 2.33%，持仓 增仓 16472 手至 17.8 万手。百川工业硅现货参考价 8750 元/吨，较上一交 易日持稳。最低交割品#553 价格降至 7600 元/吨，现货升水收至 245 元/ 吨。西南丰水电价全面下调，叠加硅煤和电极不断下移，工业硅成本重心 持续回调，硅厂丰水季开工水平压产到极限，仍未能扭转当前过剩状态。 需求端变量不多，后续只能仰仗中大型减产动态，工业硅短期延续探底节 奏。多晶硅延续全面降负荷，后续仍有行业自律扩大限产额度可能。新一 轮签单落地，量级有限且现货交易角度引导低品相对高品更抗跌。多晶硅 延续弱势。 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 EVERBRIGHT FU ...

光大期货煤化工商品日报 光大期货煤化工商品日报（2025 年 6 月 10 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周一尿素期货价格继续下挫，主力09合约收盘价1697 /吨，跌幅1.79%。现货市场 | | | | 同步走弱，主流地区现货价格下跌40~70 /吨不等，目前山东、河南地区市场价格 | | | | 均跌至1760 /吨。基本面来看，尿素供应水平再次提升。昨日行业日产量20.51 | | | 尿素 | 吨，日环比增0.64万吨。需求端表现偏弱，下游复合肥行业开工回落，对原料尿素 | 偏弱震荡 | | | 采购偏弱，农业需求距离下一轮释放仍需时日。昨日主流地区尿素产销率维持低位 | | | | 徘徊，个别地区收单超预期。整体来看，尿素供需层面暂无明显利好驱动，期、现 | | | | 市场情绪双双下挫，短期暂无拐头迹象。6月中下旬麦收结束后需求有望逐步释放 | | | | ，届时关注能否给市场带来止跌企稳迹象。 | | | | 周一纯碱期货价格震荡走弱，主力09合约收盘价1202元/吨，跌幅0.91%。现货市场 | | | | 同步走弱，主 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - The lithium carbonate futures 2507 contract fell 0.16% to 60,700 yuan/ton, while the average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate rose 50 yuan/ton to 60,250 yuan/ton, and the average price of industrial-grade lithium carbonate rose 50 yuan/ton to 58,650 yuan/ton. The price of battery-grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) decreased by 420 yuan/ton to 61,700 yuan/ton, and the price of battery-grade lithium hydroxide (micropowder) fell 415 yuan/ton to 66,850 yuan/ton. The warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 190 tons to 33,119 tons [3]. - The lithium ore price showed signs of stopping falling last Friday. On the supply side, the weekly output increased month-on-month, and the supply growth rate in June was significant. On the demand side, there was no obvious increase in the preliminary production scheduling data of each company. On the inventory side, the weekly inventory increased again, with a slight decrease in the downstream and an increase in the upstream and intermediate links. Overall, the current mining end has no new production cuts, and the oversupply situation will further expand in June. If the lithium salt price strengthens rapidly, production and hedging incentives will reappear, putting pressure on the price. Currently, the lithium ore inventory has been digested to a certain extent [3]. - The current price level is basically at the stage bottom range, with intensified long-short games. The price may be disturbed by funds, but there is no inflection point in the actual fundamentals. Attention should be paid to the warehouse receipt situation [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Research Views - The price changes of lithium carbonate futures, spot, and lithium hydroxide, as well as the decrease in warehouse receipt inventory [3]. - The supply, demand, and inventory situation of lithium ore, and the potential impact on price [3]. - The current price level and the need to focus on warehouse receipt conditions [3]. 2. Daily Data Monitoring - The price changes of various products in the lithium battery industry chain, including futures, lithium ore, lithium carbonate, lithium hydroxide, and other materials, as well as the price differences between different products [5]. 3. Chart Analysis 3.1 Ore Price - Charts show the price trends of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF), lithium mica (1.5%-2.0%, 2.0%-2.5%), and phospho-lithium-aluminum stone (6%-7%, 7%-8%) [6][8]. 3.2 Lithium and Lithium Salt Price - Charts display the price trends of metallic lithium, battery-grade lithium carbonate average price, industrial-grade lithium carbonate average price, battery-grade lithium hydroxide price, industrial-grade lithium hydroxide price, and lithium hexafluorophosphate price [11][13][15]. 3.3 Spread - Charts present the price differences between battery-grade lithium hydroxide and battery-grade lithium carbonate, battery-grade lithium carbonate and industrial-grade lithium carbonate, CIF Japan-Korea battery-grade lithium hydroxide and SMM battery-grade lithium hydroxide, and other spreads, as well as the basis [17][20][22]. 3.4 Precursor & Cathode Material - Charts show the price trends of ternary precursors and ternary materials, as well as the prices of lithium iron phosphate, lithium manganate, and lithium cobalt oxide [25][27][29]. 3.5 Lithium Battery Price - Charts display the price trends of 523 square ternary battery cells, square lithium iron phosphate battery cells, cobalt acid battery cells, and square lithium iron phosphate batteries [31][33]. 3.6 Inventory - Charts show the inventory trends of downstream, smelters, and other links [36][38]. 3.7 Production Cost - The chart presents the production profit trends of lithium carbonate from different raw materials, such as外购三元极片黑粉, 外购磷酸铁锂极片黑粉, lithium mica concentrate, and lithium spodumene concentrate [40].