1. Report Industry Investment Rating - All the varieties in the report are rated as "Oscillating", including crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, polyester, rubber, methanol, polyolefin, and polyvinyl chloride [1][3][5][7][8] 2. Core Views of the Report - Crude oil prices continued to decline due to geopolitical factors and inventory data. The current demand lacks highlights, and the supply is expected to increase, so the oil price will continue to operate weakly [1][3] - The low - sulfur fuel oil market is under pressure due to sufficient supply and weak demand, while the high - sulfur market may be supported by reduced supply starting from September [3] - The asphalt market is expected to see a pattern of both supply and demand increasing in August, and the price will fluctuate within a range [3] - The polyester market has a stable supply - demand situation, and the prices of PX, PTA, and ethylene glycol are expected to fluctuate with the oil price [5] - The rubber market is affected by factors such as rainfall, raw material prices, and tire demand, and the short - term price will oscillate [5] - The methanol market will maintain a near - weak and far - strong structure, and the price will oscillate narrowly [7] - The polyolefin market will gradually shift to a situation of strong supply and demand, and the price will oscillate narrowly [7][8] - The polyvinyl chloride market has high - level supply and improving demand, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly [8] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Tuesday, the price of WTI September contract dropped by $1.07 to $62.35 per barrel, a decline of 1.69%. The Brent October contract fell by $0.81 to $65.79 per barrel, a decline of 1.22%. SC2510 closed at 480.9 yuan per barrel, down 4.2 yuan or 0.87%. Geopolitical factors and inventory data affected the price. The current demand is weak, and the supply is expected to rise, so the price will oscillate [1][3] - **Fuel Oil**: On Tuesday, the main contract of high - sulfur fuel oil (FU2509) fell 0.26% to 2,698 yuan per ton, and the main contract of low - sulfur fuel oil (LU2510) fell 0.12% to 3,454 yuan per ton. The low - sulfur market is under pressure from supply, while the high - sulfur market may be supported in September. The price will oscillate [3] - **Asphalt**: On Tuesday, the main contract of asphalt (BU2509) rose 0.14% to 3,455 yuan per ton. The supply is expected to increase in the second half of August, and the demand is expected to recover. The price will oscillate [3] - **Polyester**: TA601 closed at 4,734 yuan per ton, down 0.25%. EG2509 closed at 4,424 yuan per ton, up 1.79%. PX supply and demand continued to recover, and the prices of PTA and ethylene glycol are expected to oscillate [5] - **Rubber**: On Tuesday, the main contract of natural rubber (RU2601) rose 55 yuan to 15,875 yuan per ton. The production and demand situation affected the price, and the short - term price will oscillate [5] - **Methanol**: The supply is currently at a low level but will gradually recover. The port inventory will increase in the short term, and the price will oscillate [7] - **Polyolefin**: The subsequent production will remain high, and the demand is expected to pick up in the peak season. The price will oscillate narrowly [7][8] - **Polyvinyl Chloride**: The supply is high, and the demand is gradually improving. The price is expected to oscillate weakly [8] 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the basis price data of various energy - chemical varieties on August 19, 2025, including spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, price changes, and the quantile of the latest basis rate in historical data [9] 3.3 Market News - The American Petroleum Institute (API) data showed that in the week of August 15, the US API crude oil inventory decreased by 2.417 million barrels, more than the analyst's expectation [12] - The Whiting refinery of BP in the United States was affected by floods caused by a thunderstorm, but the specific impact on production was not specified [12] 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: The report presents the closing price charts of the main contracts of various energy - chemical varieties from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas, asphalt, etc. [14][16][18] - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: It shows the basis charts of the main contracts of various energy - chemical varieties, such as crude oil, fuel oil, and asphalt [32][34][38] - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: The report provides the spread charts of different contracts of various energy - chemical varieties, like fuel oil, asphalt, and PTA [47][49][52] - **4.4 Inter - variety Spreads**: It includes the spread and ratio charts between different varieties, such as crude oil's internal and external spreads, fuel oil's high - low sulfur spread [63][66][68] - **4.5 Production Profits**: The report shows the production profit charts of some varieties, such as ethylene - made ethylene glycol and PP [71] 3.5 Team Member Introduction - The research team members include Zhong Meiyan, Du Bingqin, Di Yilin, and Peng Haibo, each with rich experience and professional titles in the energy - chemical research field [78][79][80][81]

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings - Stock Index Futures: Neutral (Oscillation) [1] - Treasury Bond Futures: Bearish in the short term, neutral (oscillation) in the long term [2] 2. Core Views - **Stock Index Futures**: The recent rise in the stock market is mainly due to three logics. Long - term: The market anticipates fiscal policy to shift more towards promoting consumption and an increase in the domestic inflation level after the easing of Sino - US relations. Medium - term: The anti - involution trend and infrastructure investment on the demand side benefit upstream cyclical sectors. Short - term: The capital market has relatively abundant liquidity, with funds flowing in due to RMB appreciation and improved enterprise deposit and loan data [1]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: In the short term, the bond market is under pressure due to the recovery of risk appetite. However, there are no significant changes in the capital and fundamental aspects, and the bond market lacks directional drivers. It should be treated with an oscillation mindset in the long term [2] 3. Summary by Section **Research Views** - **Stock Index Futures**: On August 19, the A - share market fluctuated with increased trading volume. The Wind All - A index fell by 0.05% with a trading volume of 2.64 trillion yuan. The CSI 1000 index rose by 0.07%, while the CSI 500, SSE 50, and CSI 300 indices fell by 0.19%, 0.93%, and 0.38% respectively. Personal consumption loan subsidy policies and the implementation of the parenting subsidy system are expected to boost the economy. The central bank may purchase national debt to support more inclusive fiscal policies [1]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: On August 19, the 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year treasury bond futures contracts rose by 0.26%, 0.06%, 0.06%, and 0.03% respectively. The central bank conducted 580.3 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net injection of 465.7 billion yuan. The weighted average interest rates of DR001 and DR007 increased [2] **Daily Price Changes** - **Stock Index Futures**: On August 19, compared with August 18, IH fell by 1.16%, IF by 0.51%, IC by 0.12%, and IM by 0.10%. Among the stock indices, the SSE 50 fell by 0.93%, the CSI 300 by 0.38%, the CSI 500 by 0.19%, and the CSI 1000 rose by 0.07% [3] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: On August 19, compared with August 18, TS rose by 0.03%, TF by 0.08%, T by 0.04%, and TL by 0.39% [3] **Market News** - From January to July, the national general public budget revenue was 1.35839 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.1%. Among them, tax revenue was 1.10933 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 0.3%, and non - tax revenue was 249.06 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2% [4] - The Ministry of Finance plans to issue 30 billion yuan of 91 - day book - entry discount treasury bonds on August 20 [4] **Chart Analysis** - **Stock Index Futures**: The report presents the historical trends and basis trends of IH, IF, IM, and IC contracts [6][7][9] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: It shows the historical trends, basis trends, and cross - period spread trends of TS, TF, T, and TL contracts, as well as the yields of treasury bonds [12][15][16] - **Exchange Rates**: The report includes the historical trends of the US dollar - RMB, euro - RMB exchange rates, forward exchange rates, and other exchange rate - related data [20][21][22]

Report Summary 1. Index Performance - On August 14th, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.46% to close at 3666.44 points, with a trading volume of 949.464 billion yuan; the Shenzhen Component Index dropped 0.87% to 11451.43 points, with a trading volume of 1329.745 billion yuan [1]. - The CSI 1000 Index declined 1.24%, with a trading volume of 513.604 billion yuan, opening at 7072.9, closing at 6976.49, hitting a high of 7077.81 and a low of 6957.4 [1]. - The CSI 500 Index decreased 1.2%, with a trading volume of 367.96 billion yuan, opening at 6509.21, closing at 6429.85, reaching a high of 6519.79 and a low of 6411.92 [1]. - The SSE 50 Index rose 0.59%, with a trading volume of 131.056 billion yuan, opening at 2815.49, closing at 2829.47, hitting a high of 2858.01 and a low of 2815.49 [1]. 2. Impact of Sector Movements on Indexes - The CSI 1000 Index dropped 87.84 points from the previous close, with sectors such as Medicine and Biology, Power Equipment, and Electronics significantly dragging the index down [3]. - The CSI 500 Index fell 78.25 points from the previous close, with sectors like National Defense and Military Industry, Medicine and Biology, and Electronics having a notable negative impact [3]. - The SSE 300 Index declined 3.27 points from the previous close, with sectors such as Non - Banking Finance, Electronics, and Power Equipment pulling the index up, while Automobiles, Medicine and Biology, and Communications dragging it down [3]. - The SSE 50 Index rose 16.49 points from the previous close, with sectors like Electronics, Non - Banking Finance, and Banks contributing to the increase [3]. 3. Futures Basis and Annualized Opening Costs - For IM contracts, IM00 had an average basis of - 0.48, IM01 - 66.22, IM02 - 241.2, and IM03 - 412.97 [12]. - For IC contracts, IC00 had an average basis of - 3.47, IC01 - 56.93, IC02 - 196.32, and IC03 - 320.4 [12]. - For IF contracts, IF00 had an average basis of - 0.63, IF01 - 9.92, IF02 - 36.25, and IF03 - 64.28 [12]. - For IH contracts, IH00 had an average basis of 0.34, IH01 0.99, IH02 1.91, and IH03 2.42 [12]. 4. Futures Rollover Point Differences and Annualized Costs - Data on IM, IC, IF, and IH rollover point differences and their corresponding annualized costs are presented in the report, including specific values at different time points [20][23][24][26]

Report Overview - The report is the "Iron Ore Basis and Spread Monitoring Daily Report" released by Everbright Futures on August 15, 2025, focusing on iron ore futures contract spreads, basis, and variety spreads [1] Contract Spreads - **Price Changes**: The closing prices of I05, I09, and I01 contracts decreased by 21.0, 14.5, and 20.0 respectively compared to the previous day [3] - **Spread Changes**: The spreads of I05 - I09, I09 - I01, and I01 - I05 were -38.0, 16.0, and 22.0 respectively, with changes of -6.5, 5.5, and 1.0 compared to the previous day [3] Basis Data - **Price Changes**: Most iron ore varieties' prices decreased, such as a 10.0 decrease for Carajás fines and a 15.0 decrease for BRBF [6] - **Basis Changes**: The basis of most varieties increased, like Carajás fines' basis increasing by 9 and BRBF's by 4 [6] Charts - The report provides multiple basis charts for different types of iron ore, including Brazilian fines, Australian medium - grade fines, etc [8][9][10] Variety Spreads Data - **Spread Changes**: Some spreads increased, like PB lump - PB fines increasing by 3.0, while others decreased, like BRBF - PB fines decreasing by 2.0 [13] Charts - The report presents various charts for variety spreads, such as block - powder spreads, high - medium grade fines spreads, etc [14][15][16][18][19][20] Rule Adjustments - **New Deliverable Varieties**: Four new deliverable varieties (Benxi concentrate, IOC6, KUMBA, Ukrainian concentrate) were added with brand premiums of 0, effective from the I2202 contract [11] - **Premium Adjustments**: Only PB fines, BRBF, and Carajás fines have a brand premium of 15 yuan/ton, and the rest are 0 yuan/ton [11] - **Quality Premium Adjustments**: The allowable range of iron grade was adjusted, and a dynamic adjustment mechanism for iron element premium was introduced [11]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Urea: Oscillating [1] - Soda Ash: Oscillating [1] - Glass: Oscillating [1] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Urea futures prices declined weakly on Thursday, with the 09 contract closing at 1,715 yuan/ton, a 0.75% drop, and the 01 contract at 1,726 yuan/ton, a 1.76% decline. The spot market was weak, and some mainstream regions saw slight price cuts. Supply was stable, while demand was weak, and there may be price cuts for sales in the future. The futures market will continue to oscillate slightly, and short - term sentiment is weak [1]. - Soda ash futures prices were firm and oscillating on Thursday, with the 01 contract closing at 1,400 yuan/ton, a 0.36% decline, and the 09 contract at 1,294 yuan/ton, a 0.08% increase. The spot market was mostly stable, but prices in some regions dropped. Supply pressure increased, and demand was weak. The futures market is driven by certain expectations, and the price difference between months has widened, but the supply - demand situation is still weak [1]. - Glass futures prices were weakly oscillating on Thursday, with the 01 contract closing at 1,220 yuan/ton, a 1.37% decline, and the 09 contract at 1,053 yuan/ton, a 2.23% decline. The spot market was weak, and demand was insufficient, but the trading atmosphere was slowly improving. The futures market is affected by external factors and will continue to oscillate slightly in the short term [1]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Information - Urea - On August 14, the number of urea futures warehouse receipts on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange was 3,823, unchanged from the previous trading day, with 50 valid forecasts [4]. - On August 14, the daily output of the urea industry was 194,400 tons, an increase of 3,200 tons from the previous working day and 24,100 tons from the same period last year. The daily start - up rate was 83.97%, a 6.73% increase from 77.24% in the same period last year [4]. - On August 14, the spot prices of small - particle urea in various domestic regions were as follows: Shandong 1,720 yuan/ton, a 10 - yuan decline; Henan 1,740 yuan/ton, unchanged; Hebei 1,740 yuan/ton, a 10 - yuan decline; Anhui 1,740 yuan/ton, unchanged; Jiangsu 1,730 yuan/ton, unchanged; Shanxi 1,620 yuan/ton, unchanged [4]. - On August 13, the inventory of domestic urea enterprises was 957,400 tons, a weekly increase of 69,800 tons, or 7.86% [4]. Market Information - Soda Ash & Glass - On August 14, the number of soda ash futures warehouse receipts on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange was 10,192, an increase of 917 from the previous trading day, with 1,001 valid forecasts. The number of glass futures warehouse receipts was 3,243, a decrease of 300 from the previous trading day [6]. - On August 14, the spot prices of soda ash in various regions were as follows. Some regions saw price cuts for heavy soda ash [6]. - As of August 14, the weekly output of soda ash was 761,300 tons, an increase of 16,600 tons, or 2.24%. The capacity utilization rate was 87.32%, a weekly increase of 1.91 percentage points [6]. - As of August 14, the inventory of soda ash enterprises was 1,893,800 tons, an increase of 17,600 tons from Monday, or 0.94%, and an increase of 28,700 tons from last Thursday, or 1.54% [6]. - On August 14, the average price of the float glass market was 1,164 yuan/ton, a daily decline of 2 yuan/ton. The daily output of the industry was 159,600 tons, unchanged from the previous day [6]. - As of August 14, the total inventory of domestic float glass sample enterprises was 63.426 million weight boxes, a weekly increase of 1.579 million weight boxes, or 2.55%, and a year - on - year decrease of 5.94%. The inventory days were 27.1 days, an increase of 0.7 days from last week [7]. Chart Analysis - The report presents multiple charts, including those showing urea and soda ash basis, trading volume and open interest of main contracts, price differences between different contracts, spot price trends, and price differences between different varieties [9][11][15]. Research Team Introduction - The research team consists of Zhang Xiaojin, Zhang Linglu, and Sun Chengzhen, who are responsible for different research areas related to futures products and have rich experience and many honors [22].

Group 1: Investment Ratings - The investment ratings for cotton and sugar are both "Oscillation" [1] Group 2: Core Views - For cotton, on Thursday, ICE U.S. cotton fell 0.21% to 67.59 cents per pound, and CF601 rose 0.32% to 14,155 yuan per ton. The main - contract positions increased by 15,397 lots to 471,300 lots. The cotton arrival price in Xinjiang was 15,060 yuan per ton, up 3 yuan from the previous day, and the China Cotton Price Index Grade 3128B was 15,214 yuan per ton, up 26 yuan. The USDA August report was bullish, but the market had no sustained reaction. The focus is on the macro - level, with a high probability of a September interest rate cut. Domestically, the market will shift focus to new cotton. Although a harvest increase is certain, the current low cotton price has factored this in. The import and initial inventory are expected to be low in the new year, and the inventory - to - sales ratio will decline significantly. Before new cotton is listed, the center of Zhengzhou cotton futures prices may oscillate upward [1] - For sugar, India will allow 4 - 5 million tons of sugar to be converted to ethanol production in the 2025/26 season. The spot prices in Guangxi and Yunnan increased by 10 - 20 yuan per ton, and the processing sugar mill prices adjusted by 10 - 20 yuan per ton. Raw sugar failed to continue its rebound, facing pressure above 17 cents. Domestically, the spot trading recovered, but the futures price was in a dilemma at night. It is expected to oscillate narrowly, waiting for import data and raw sugar guidance [1] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Research Views - Cotton: Current price trends, trading volume changes, and market reactions to USDA reports are presented. The macro - situation and domestic new cotton supply - demand are analyzed, and the price trend before new cotton listing is predicted [1] - Sugar: Information on India's sugar - to - ethanol policy, domestic spot price adjustments, raw sugar trends, and domestic futures price trends are provided, and the future price trend is judged [1] 2. Daily Data Monitoring - Cotton: The 9 - 1 contract spread was - 280, up 20; the main - contract basis was 1059, up 1; the Xinjiang spot price was 15,060 yuan per ton, up 3 yuan, and the national spot price was 15,214 yuan per ton, up 26 yuan [2] - Sugar: The 9 - 1 contract spread was 59, down 15; the main - contract basis was 341, up 8; the Nanning spot price was 5980 yuan per ton, up 10 yuan, and the Liuzhou spot price was 6000 yuan per ton, up 10 yuan [2] 3. Market Information - On August 14, the cotton futures warehouse receipts decreased by 84 to 7922, with 273 valid forecasts. The cotton arrival prices in different regions were reported. The yarn comprehensive load rose to 49.4, the yarn comprehensive inventory decreased to 29.3, the short - fiber cloth comprehensive load remained at 48.4, and the short - fiber cloth comprehensive inventory decreased to 33.1 [3] - On August 14, the sugar spot prices in Nanning and Liuzhou increased by 10 yuan per ton. The sugar futures warehouse receipts decreased by 245 to 17,284, with no valid forecasts [3][4] 4. Chart Analysis - Multiple charts are presented, including those for cotton and sugar futures prices, basis, contract spreads, warehouse receipts, and price indices, which visually show the historical trends of these data [6][14]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Copper**: Overnight copper showed a weakening trend. The US July PPI data dampened market expectations of significant Fed rate - cuts. Domestically, the M2 - M1 gap narrowed. There are still differences in the market's view of US copper prospects. With US copper over - stocking, there is a risk of inventory relocation, which may impact global copper prices. However, the approaching "Golden September" season and anti - cut - throat competition policy expectations provide some support, and the price is likely to maintain a balance between bulls and bears for now [1]. - **Aluminum**: Alumina was weakening, while Shanghai aluminum and aluminum alloy were strengthening. In August, the profit in the aluminum industry shifted from upstream to downstream. There is an expectation of over - supply due to the resumption of alumina production, but short - term cost support limits the decline. The signing of an aluminum cooperation agreement between India and Russia may lead to higher US tariffs on them, increasing trade cost concerns. As "Golden September" approaches, the supply - demand of electrolytic aluminum is showing signs of change, and the aluminum price is in a stage of trading time for space with an expectation of recovery. Aluminum alloy is in a tug - of - war between cost and demand, waiting for the peak season [1][2]. - **Nickel**: Overnight LME nickel and Shanghai nickel both declined. Inventory increased slightly. The raw material prices of stainless steel were differentiated, and the market sentiment improved with continuous inventory digestion. Overall, the fundamentals changed little and showed a volatile trend [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Copper**: US July PPI rose to 3.3% year - on - year, the highest since February 2025, and 0.9% month - on - month, the largest since June 2022. Domestically, the M2 - M1 gap shrank. Market views on US copper vary due to over - stocking. The approaching "Golden September" and anti - cut - throat competition policies support the price, and it maintains a balance between bulls and bears [1]. - **Aluminum**: Alumina (AO2509) closed at 3230 yuan/ton, down 0.55%, with an increase in positions. Shanghai aluminum (AL2509) closed at 20760 yuan/ton, up 0.67%, with a decrease in positions. Aluminum alloy (AD2511) closed at 20175 yuan/ton, up 0.22%, with a decrease in positions. The SMM alumina price dropped to 3248 yuan/ton, and the aluminum ingot spot changed from discount to premium. Aluminum rod and bar processing fees showed different trends. In August, the profit shifted from upstream to downstream. The resumption of alumina production increased over - supply expectations, but cost support limited the decline. The India - Russia aluminum cooperation agreement may lead to higher US tariffs, and the approaching "Golden September" led to early stocking in some sectors, with the supply - demand of electrolytic aluminum showing signs of change [1][2]. - **Nickel**: Overnight LME nickel fell 1.25% to 15050 dollars/ton, and Shanghai nickel fell 1.19% to 120620 yuan/ton. LME inventory increased by 42 tons to 211140 tons, and domestic SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 142 tons to 20720 tons. The LME0 - 3 month premium remained negative, and the import nickel premium was stable at 400 yuan/ton. The price of nickel ore in Indonesia decreased slightly. The raw material prices of stainless steel were differentiated, with the nickel - iron transaction price rising. The social inventory of stainless steel decreased by 2.48% week - on - week, and the market sentiment improved. The domestic nickel inventory increased slightly in August, and the overall fundamentals showed little change and were volatile [2]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Copper**: The price of flat - water copper decreased by 55 yuan/ton to 79385 yuan/ton, and the premium decreased by 5 yuan/ton. The price of 1 bright scrap copper in Guangdong decreased by 100 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap spread increased by 227 yuan/ton. The inventory in LME and COMEX increased, and the total social inventory remained unchanged. The LME0 - 3 premium decreased by 9.3 dollars/ton, and the import loss of the active contract increased by 220 yuan/ton [3]. - **Lead**: The average price of 1 lead decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 16750 yuan/ton, and the premium of 1 lead ingot in East China decreased by 5 yuan/ton. The prices of lead concentrates and processing fees in some regions decreased slightly. The LME and Shanghai Futures Exchange inventories decreased [3]. - **Aluminum**: The Wuxi and Nanhai aluminum prices decreased, and the spot changed from discount to a 10 - yuan/ton premium. The prices of raw materials such as aluminum ore and alumina remained stable. The processing fees of some downstream products changed. The LME inventory increased by 1050 tons, and the Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory decreased by 3913 tons. The import loss of the active contract increased by 19 yuan/ton [4]. - **Nickel**: The price of Jinchuan nickel decreased by 400 yuan/ton. The prices of some nickel - related products remained stable or changed slightly. The LME inventory increased by 42 tons, and the Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel inventory increased by 444 tons. The import loss of the active contract increased by 680 yuan/ton [4]. - **Zinc**: The main settlement price decreased by 0.6% to 22540 yuan/ton. The LmeS3 price remained stable. The domestic and import zinc premiums remained unchanged. The LME inventory decreased by 1025 tons, and the Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory increased by 793 tons. The social inventory increased by 1.11 million tons [5]. - **Tin**: The main settlement price decreased by 0.6% to 268590 yuan/ton, and the LmeS3 price decreased by 2.1%. The prices of tin concentrates increased. The LME and Shanghai Futures Exchange inventories increased [5]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Spot Premium**: Charts 1 - 6 show the spot premiums of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [7][9][10]. - **SHFE Near - Far Month Spread**: Charts 7 - 12 show the near - far month spreads of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2020 - 2025 [14][16][18]. - **LME Inventory**: Charts 13 - 18 show the LME inventories of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [20][22][24]. - **SHFE Inventory**: Charts 19 - 24 show the SHFE inventories of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [27][29][31]. - **Social Inventory**: Charts 25 - 30 show the social inventories of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series stainless steel from 2019 - 2025 [33][35][37]. - **Smelting Profit**: Charts 31 - 36 show the copper concentrate index, rough copper processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and 304 stainless steel smelting profit rate from 2019 - 2025 [40][42][44]. 3.4有色金属团队介绍 - **Zhan Dapeng**: A science master, currently the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, a senior precious metals researcher, a gold intermediate investment analyst, an excellent metal analyst of the Shanghai Futures Exchange, and the best industrial product futures analyst of Futures Daily and Securities Times. With more than a decade of commodity research experience, he has served many leading spot enterprises, published dozens of professional articles in public newspapers and magazines, and has been interviewed by many media. His team has won awards such as the 15th and 16th Best Metal Industry Futures Research Team Awards of Futures Daily and Securities Times and the 2016 Excellent Non - ferrous Metal Industry Team title of the Shanghai Futures Exchange [47]. - **Wang Heng**: A master of finance from the University of Adelaide, Australia, currently a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly researching aluminum and silicon. He has in - depth research on the domestic non - ferrous industry, tracks the new energy industry chain, provides timely hot - spot and policy interpretations, and has written many in - depth reports [47]. - **Zhu Xi**: A master of science from the University of Warwick, UK, currently a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly researching lithium and nickel. Focused on the integration of non - ferrous metals and new energy, she tracks the new energy industry chain and provides timely hot - spot and policy interpretations, and has written many in - depth reports [48].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On August 14, 2025, the 2511 contract of lithium carbonate futures rose 0.28% to 85,300 yuan/ton. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 1,000 yuan/ton to 82,000 yuan/ton, the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate rose by 950 yuan/ton to 79,750 yuan/ton, and the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) increased by 1,050 yuan/ton to 73,040 yuan/ton. The warehouse receipt inventory increased by 260 tons to 21,939 tons [3]. - In terms of supply, the weekly output increased by 424 tons to 19,980 tons. It is expected that the supply in August will increase by 3% to 84,200 tons. In terms of demand, the lithium consumption of two major cathode materials in August is expected to increase by 8% to 86,000 tons of LCE. In terms of inventory, the total social inventory decreased by 162 tons to 142,256 tons, with upstream destocking and restocking in other and downstream sectors [3]. - Against the background of anti - involution and sustained demand, short - term production suspension has boosted market sentiment. There is a risk of correction after the previous rapid rise, and the market may fluctuate in the short term. The production suspension of mines can adjust the supply - demand balance of lithium resources, but the suspension period needs attention. As prices rise, some enterprises may resume production, and overseas imports are expected to increase. Future focus should be on actual lithium salt supply, overseas import increments, terminal customer supply, and potential issues with other mining licenses [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 2. Daily Data Monitoring - Futures: The closing price of the main contract was 85,300 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan from the previous day; the closing price of the continuous contract was 73,480 yuan/ton, down 9,140 yuan [5]. - Lithium ore: The price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 937 US dollars/ton, up 11 US dollars; the price of lithium mica (Li2O: 1.5% - 2.0%) was 1,300 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan; the price of lithium mica (Li2O: 2.0% - 2.5%) was 2,075 yuan/ton, up 45 yuan [5]. - Lithium salts and other products: Various lithium salts, lithium hydroxides, and other product prices showed different degrees of increase or remained stable, and there were also corresponding changes in price differences [5]. 3. Chart Analysis 3.1 Ore Prices - Charts show the price trends of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF), lithium mica (1.5% - 2.0%), lithium mica (2.0% - 2.5%), and lithium phosphate - aluminum ore (6% - 7%) from 2024 to 2025 [6][8]. 3.2 Lithium and Lithium Salt Prices - Charts present the price trends of metal lithium, battery - grade lithium carbonate average price, industrial - grade lithium carbonate average price, battery - grade lithium hydroxide price, industrial - grade lithium hydroxide price, and lithium hexafluorophosphate price from 2024 to 2025 [11][13][15]. 3.3 Price Differences - Charts display the price differences between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade lithium carbonate and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, CIF Japan - South Korea battery - grade lithium hydroxide and SMM battery - grade lithium hydroxide, etc., from 2024 to 2025 [18][19][21]. 3.4 Precursor & Cathode Materials - Charts show the price trends of ternary precursors and ternary materials, as well as the price trends of lithium iron phosphate, lithium manganate, and lithium cobalt oxide from 2024 to 2025 [23][26][29]. 3.5 Lithium Battery Prices - Charts present the price trends of 523 square ternary cells, square lithium iron phosphate cells, lithium cobalt oxide cells, and square lithium iron phosphate batteries from 2024 to 2025 [31][33]. 3.6 Inventory - Charts show the inventory trends of downstream, smelters, and other sectors from December 2024 to August 2025 [35][37]. 3.7 Production Costs - Charts display the production profit trends of lithium carbonate from different raw materials such as外购三元极片黑粉,外购磷酸铁锂极片黑粉,外购锂云母精矿, and外购锂辉石精矿 from 2024 to 2025 [39][40].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Steel: The steel market is expected to undergo weak consolidation. The rebar futures price decreased, with the 2510 contract closing at 3189 yuan/ton, down 33 yuan/ton or 1.02% from the previous trading day. Spot prices also fell, and trading volume declined. Supply - demand data was weak, with a slight drop in rebar production, a significant increase in inventory, and a decline in apparent demand. Weak RMB loans in July affected market sentiment [1]. - Iron Ore: The iron ore market is expected to fluctuate. The main contract i2601 price dropped to 775 yuan/ton, down 2.94% from the previous settlement price. Global iron ore shipments decreased, iron - making production declined, and port and steel mill inventories increased [1]. - Coking Coal: The coking coal market is expected to have wide - range fluctuations. The 2601 contract closed at 1214 yuan/ton, down 31 yuan/ton or 2.49%. The resumption of coal mine production was slow, downstream procurement slowed, and demand from coke - steel enterprises was average [1]. - Coke: The coke market is expected to have wide - range fluctuations. The 2601 contract closed at 1707 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton or 1.73%. The sixth round of price increases was fully implemented, coke enterprises' production was normal, and steel mills' demand for replenishment was relatively active [1]. - Manganese Silicon: The manganese silicon market may experience a slight correction. The main contract price was 6050 yuan/ton, down 1.08%. Supply was increasing, and demand was waiting for the main steel mill's tender price. The fundamental driving force was limited [1][3]. - Ferrosilicon: The ferrosilicon market may experience a correction. The 09 contract price was 5744 yuan/ton, down 2.15%. Supply was increasing, and demand was affected by downstream production control. The fundamental driving force was limited [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Steel**: Yesterday, the rebar futures price continued to fall. The 2510 contract closed at 3189 yuan/ton, down 33 yuan/ton or 1.02%, with a decrease of 16,000 lots in positions. Spot prices dropped, and trading volume declined. National rebar production decreased by 0.73 tons week - on - week to 220.45 million tons, social inventory increased by 26.45 million tons to 414.93 million tons, and factory inventory increased by 4.06 million tons to 172.26 million tons. Apparent demand decreased by 20.85 million tons to 189.94 million tons. In July, RMB loans were weak, affecting market sentiment [1]. - **Iron Ore**: The main contract i2601 price fell to 775 yuan/ton, down 2.94%. Port spot prices also dropped. Australian shipments decreased, Brazilian shipments increased, and global shipments decreased. Iron - making production decreased by 0.34 million tons to 240.66 million tons, and the blast furnace operating rate decreased by 0.16%. Port and steel mill inventories increased [1]. - **Coking Coal**: The 2601 contract closed at 1214 yuan/ton, down 31 yuan/ton or 2.49%, with a decrease of 24,908 lots in positions. The price of some coking coal in the spot market was adjusted. Coal mine resumption was slow, downstream procurement slowed, and demand from coke - steel enterprises was average [1]. - **Coke**: The 2601 contract closed at 1707 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton or 1.73%, with a decrease of 1034 lots in positions. The sixth round of price increases was fully implemented. Coke enterprises' production was normal, and steel mills' demand for replenishment was relatively active [1]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The main contract price was 6050 yuan/ton, down 1.08%, with a decrease of 21,026 lots in positions. The market price in each region was 5800 - 6050 yuan/ton. Supply was increasing, and demand was waiting for the main steel mill's tender price. The fundamental driving force was limited [1][3]. - **Ferrosilicon**: The 09 contract price was 5744 yuan/ton, down 2.15%, with a decrease of 16,432 lots in positions. The market price in each region was about 5450 - 5500 yuan/ton. Supply was increasing, and demand was affected by downstream production control. The fundamental driving force was limited [3]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Contract Spread**: The contract spreads of various varieties showed different changes. For example, the 10 - 1 spread of rebar was - 78.0, down 4.0; the 1 - 5 spread of iron ore was 22.0, up 1.0 [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of each variety also changed. For example, the 09 - contract basis of iron ore was 27.1, up 0.2; the 01 - contract basis of coke was - 85.0, up 8.3 [4]. - **Spot Price**: Spot prices of different varieties decreased. For example, the Shanghai rebar price was 3320.0, down 40.0; the PB powder price was 771.0, down 13.0 [4]. - **Profit and Spread**: The profit and spread of different varieties showed different trends. For example, the rebar futures profit was 13.8, up 15.0; the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar was 243.0, up 14.0 [4]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Main Contract Price**: Charts showed the closing prices of main contracts of various varieties from 2020 to 2025, including rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, etc [5][7][9]. - **Main Contract Basis**: Charts showed the basis of main contracts of various varieties over different time periods, such as rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, etc [18][19][20]. - **Inter - period Contract Spread**: Charts showed the spreads of inter - period contracts of various varieties over different time periods, such as rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, etc [26][28][30]. - **Inter - variety Contract Spread**: Charts showed the spreads of inter - variety contracts of various varieties from 2020 to 2025, including the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar, the ratio of rebar to iron ore, etc [41][42][44]. - **Rebar Profit**: Charts showed the profit of rebar main contracts from 2020 to 2025, including futures profit, long - process profit, and short - process profit [45][47][51]. 3.4 Black Research Team Members Introduction - Qiu Yuecheng: Current assistant director of Everbright Futures Research Institute and director of black research, with nearly 20 years of experience in the steel industry. He has multiple honors and relevant qualification numbers [53]. - Zhang Xiaojin: Current director of resource product research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with multiple honors and relevant qualification numbers [53]. - Liu Xi: Current black researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, good at fundamental supply - demand analysis based on industrial chain data, with relevant qualification numbers [53]. - Zhang Chunjie: Current black researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with experience in investment and trade, and passed the CFA Level 2 exam, with relevant qualification numbers [54].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Corn: Neutral [1] - Soybean Meal: Bullish [1] - Oils: Bullish [1] - Eggs: Neutral [1] - Pigs: Neutral [2] 2. Core Views of the Report - The corn futures market shows a pattern of near - strong and far - weak, with the 9 - month contract approaching the delivery month. The spot market has different price performances in various regions, and the futures price is affected by policies and fundamentals. Short - term attention should be paid to the possible resistance and decline of the 9 - month contract price [1]. - The CBOT soybean closed lower due to export demand concerns. The domestic soybean meal mainly fluctuates, and the strategy is to participate in short - term long positions and hold the 1 - 5 positive spread [1]. - The BMD palm oil closed lower due to profit - taking, and the ICE rapeseed futures also declined. The domestic vegetable oils followed the external market down. The oils market is in a bullish trend, and the strategy is to hold long positions and sell put options [1]. - The egg futures have completed the position transfer. The spot price is mostly stable with individual declines. The short - term fundamentals are weak, but there is a possibility of seasonal price rebound in the future, with the high point likely to be lower than last year [1][2]. - The pig futures main contract fluctuated weakly. The spot price showed a mixed pattern of rise, stability, and decline. The short - term spot price is supported by the strong price - holding intention of breeders, and there is a possibility of a low - level rebound in the future [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Research Views - **Corn**: The 9 - month contract of corn futures has reduced positions and risen this week, with the main funds shifting to forward contracts. The spot price in the Northeast is slightly weak, in the North China it is stable with limited adjustments, and in the sales area it is generally stable with individual port rebounds. Technically, the futures price is in a stalemate after a short - term decline and then stabilizes and rises. There is a need to pay attention to the game between policies and fundamentals [1]. - **Soybean Meal**: The CBOT soybean closed lower. The new US soybean net sales were higher than expected, while the old - crop net sales were negative due to contract cancellations. The Brazilian soybean production is expected to increase. Domestically, the soybean meal fluctuates, and the strategy is short - term long participation and holding the 1 - 5 positive spread [1]. - **Oils**: The BMD palm oil closed lower due to profit - taking, and an Indonesian organization is lobbying to postpone the B50 biodiesel policy. The ICE rapeseed futures declined. The US soybean oil followed the US soybean down. The domestic vegetable oils followed the external market. The oils market is in a bullish trend with rich market themes and high uncertainty [1]. - **Eggs**: The egg futures have completed position transfer. The 2509 contract declined, and the 2510 contract rose slightly. The spot price is mostly stable with individual declines. The short - term fundamentals are weak, but there is a possibility of seasonal price rebound in the future [1][2]. - **Pigs**: The pig futures main contract 2511 declined. The spot price showed a mixed pattern. The short - term spot price is supported by breeders' price - holding intention, and there is a possibility of a low - level rebound in the future [2]. Market Information - India's palm oil and sunflower oil imports in July decreased compared to June, while the total vegetable oil imports increased [3]. - The US 2024/2025 annual soybean and corn export sales as of August 7 were far lower than market expectations [3]. - Brazil's 2024/25 annual soybean production is expected to reach 1.69657 billion tons, and the corn production is expected to be 13.7005 million tons [3]. - The corn planting area in the central crop area of Argentina in the 2025/26 year is expected to increase by 15% - 20% [3]. Variety Spreads - **Contract Spreads**: The report presents the 9 - 1 spreads of corn, corn starch, soybean, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and pigs through charts [5][7][8][11]. - **Contract Basis**: The report presents the basis of corn, corn starch, soybean, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and pigs through charts [13][17][23][25].