1. Report Industry Investment Rating - All the analyzed energy and chemical products, including crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, polyester, rubber, methanol, polyolefins, and polyvinyl chloride, are rated as "oscillating" [1][3][4][6][7]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The decline in US crude oil inventories supports the rebound of oil prices, but the continuous driving force remains to be observed, and oil prices are in a low - range oscillating rhythm. Geopolitical factors such as the Iran nuclear negotiation deadline and potential sanctions also affect the oil market [1]. - The consumption of marine fuel in Singapore increased in July, but the fundamentals of low - sulfur fuel oil are suppressed by sufficient supply, while the high - sulfur market shows signs of stabilization. In the short term, the upward space of high - and low - sulfur fuel oils is not optimistic [3]. - The asphalt market is expected to see a situation of increasing supply and demand in August, and the price will oscillate in a range due to the lack of obvious one - sided driving force [4]. - The polyester market shows signs of demand recovery. PX prices are expected to fluctuate with crude oil prices, and PTA and ethylene glycol prices are expected to oscillate in the short term [4][6]. - The rubber market has firm raw materials, but tire demand and开工 decline, and inventory accumulates. The short - term rubber price is expected to oscillate [6]. - The methanol market has a short - term low supply due to many domestic device overhauls, but the supply will gradually recover. The port inventory is expected to increase, and the price will oscillate narrowly with a near - weak and far - strong structure [6][7]. - The polyolefin market will gradually transition to a situation of strong supply and demand. The cost side does not fluctuate significantly, and the overall will show a narrow - range oscillating pattern [7]. - The polyvinyl chloride market has high - level supply oscillations and gradually recovering demand. The price is expected to oscillate weakly [7][8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Wednesday, oil prices rebounded. The EIA inventory report showed a decline in US crude oil and gasoline inventories but an increase in distillate inventories. As the deadline for Iran's nuclear negotiation and cooperation approaches, geopolitical risks exist. Indian companies have resumed purchasing Russian oil. The current destocking of US crude oil supports the price rebound, but the continuous driving force remains to be observed, and the price is in a low - range oscillating rhythm [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: On Wednesday, the main contract of high - sulfur fuel oil on the SHFE rose, while the main contract of low - sulfur fuel oil fell. In July, Singapore's marine fuel sales reached a 19 - month high. High - sulfur fuel oil demand increased significantly, and its market share is approaching 40%. In August, the supply of traditional fuel oil in Singapore is still abundant. The low - sulfur fuel oil market is suppressed by supply, while the high - sulfur market may be supported by reduced supply in September [3]. - **Asphalt**: On Wednesday, the main contract of asphalt on the SHFE rose. The planned asphalt production of local refineries in September is expected to increase year - on - year and month - on - month. The social inventory rate decreased slightly, and the refinery inventory level increased. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand in the north is stable, while the demand in the east is expected to recover. The price will oscillate in a range in August [4]. - **Polyester**: TA601, EG2601, and PX futures all rose. The production and sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang declined. A Malaysian MEG device has restarted. PX supply and demand are recovering, and PTA and ethylene glycol prices are expected to oscillate in the short term [4][6]. - **Rubber**: On Wednesday, the main contracts of natural rubber, 20 - number rubber, and butadiene rubber all fell. Rubber raw materials are firm, but tire demand and开工 decline, and inventory accumulates. The short - term rubber price is expected to oscillate [6]. - **Methanol**: On Wednesday, spot prices in different regions and international prices are given. Recently, there have been many domestic device overhauls, and the supply is at a short - term low. The supply will gradually recover, and the arrival volume is expected to remain high. The port inventory will increase in the short term, and the price will oscillate narrowly with a near - weak and far - strong structure [6][7]. - **Polyolefins**: On Wednesday, prices and production profits of different types of polyolefins are provided. The subsequent production volume will remain high, and the current downstream enterprise开工 is low. As the peak demand season approaches, the industry开工 rate is expected to increase, and the overall will show a narrow - range oscillating pattern [7]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride**: On Wednesday, PVC market prices in East, North, and South China all decreased. The supply oscillates at a high level, and the demand is gradually recovering. The basis and monthly spread are relatively high, and it is expected that the monthly spread will narrow, and the price will oscillate weakly [7][8]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - Data on the basis, basis rate, and their changes of various energy and chemical products such as crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas, asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, methanol, etc. are provided, including spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rate, and their respective changes from August 19th to 20th [9]. 3.3 Market News - The EIA inventory report shows that US crude oil and gasoline inventories decreased last week, while distillate inventories increased. As of August 15th, US commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 6 million barrels to 420.7 million barrels, which was more than the market expectation. The Strategic Petroleum Reserve increased by 200,000 barrels, and Cushing crude oil inventories increased by 419,000 barrels [12]. - JODI data shows that Saudi Arabia's crude oil exports in June dropped to a three - month low, with exports falling from 6.191 million barrels per day in May to 6.141 million barrels per day. However, the crude oil production in June was 9.752 million barrels per day, higher than that in May [12]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: Charts of the closing prices of main contracts of various energy and chemical products such as crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, LPG, PTA, ethylene glycol, etc. from 2021 to 2025 are presented [14][17][20][21][23][25][27][28][31]. - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: Charts of the basis of main contracts of various products such as crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, natural rubber, 20 - number rubber, paraxylene, synthetic rubber, and bottle chips are provided [32][34][38][41][44][45]. - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: Charts of the spreads between different contracts of various products such as fuel oil, asphalt, PTA, ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, and natural rubber are shown [48][50][53][56][59][61]. - **4.4 Inter - variety Spreads**: Charts of the spreads between different varieties such as crude oil internal and external markets, crude oil B - W spreads, fuel oil high - low sulfur spreads, fuel oil/asphalt ratio, BU/SC ratio, ethylene glycol - PTA spreads, PP - LLDPE spreads, and natural rubber - 20 - number rubber spreads are presented [67][68][69][70]. - **4.5 Production Profits**: Charts of the production profits of ethylene - made ethylene glycol, PP, and LLDPE are provided [72][76]. 4. Research Team Members - **Assistant Director and Energy - Chemical Director**: Zhong Meiyan, with a master's degree from Shanghai University of Finance and Economics, has won multiple "Excellent Analyst" awards and led the team to win many industry service awards. She has over a decade of experience in futures derivatives market research [78]. - **Crude Oil, Natural Gas, Fuel Oil, Asphalt, and Shipping Analyst**: Du Bingqin, with a master's degree in applied economics from the University of Wisconsin - Madison and a bachelor's degree in finance from Shandong University, has won multiple industry awards and has in - depth research on the energy industry [79]. - **Natural Rubber/Polyester Analyst**: Di Yilin, a finance master, has won multiple awards and is engaged in the research of natural rubber, 20 - number rubber, PTA, MEG, and other futures varieties [80]. - **Methanol/PE/PP/PVC Analyst**: Peng Haibo, with an engineering master's degree from China University of Petroleum (East China), is a mid - level economist and has years of experience in energy - chemical spot - futures trading [81].

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings for the industry are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The recent rise in the stock market is mainly due to three logics: long - term, the market anticipates more fiscal policies to promote consumption and a recovery in domestic inflation after the easing of Sino - US relations, with foreign capital flowing in and usually buying large - cap growth stocks; medium - term, the anti - involution trend and infrastructure investment on the demand side benefit upstream cyclical sectors; short - term, the capital market has relatively abundant liquidity due to RMB appreciation under a weak US dollar and improved corporate deposit and loan data [1]. - For treasury bond futures, in the short term, the bond market is under pressure due to the recovery of risk appetite, but with no significant changes in the capital and fundamental aspects, it should be treated with a volatile mindset in the long term [3]. Group 3: Summary by Directory Research Views - **Stock Index**: On August 20, 2025, the A - share market fluctuated and rose, with the Wind All - A index up 0.97% and a trading volume of 2.45 trillion yuan. The CSI 1000, CSI 500, SSE 50, and SSE 300 indices also increased. Personal consumption loan subsidy policies and the implementation of the parenting subsidy system are expected to drive inflation recovery through more inclusive fiscal support. The market is expected to show a volatile trend [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: On August 20, 2025, treasury bond futures closed lower. The central bank conducted 616 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations, with a net injection of 497.5 billion yuan. Short - term, the bond market is under pressure due to risk appetite recovery, and should be treated with a volatile mindset in the long term [3]. Daily Price Changes - **Stock Index Futures**: On August 20, 2025, compared with the previous day, IH, IF, IC, and IM all increased, with increases of 1.27%, 1.28%, 1.44%, and 1.37% respectively [4]. - **Stock Indices**: On August 20, 2025, compared with the previous day, the SSE 50, SSE 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indices all increased, with increases of 1.23%, 1.14%, 1.09%, and 0.86% respectively [4]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: On August 20, 2025, compared with the previous day, TS, TF, T, and TL all decreased, with decreases of - 0.01%, - 0.16%, - 0.19%, and - 0.42% respectively [4]. Market News - On August 20, 2025, the 1 - year LPR was 3.00% and the 5 - year LPR was 3.50%, both remaining unchanged from the previous month [5]. Chart Analysis - **Stock Index Futures**: The report provides charts of the trends and basis of IH, IF, IC, and IM contracts, as well as the trends of the SSE 50, SSE 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indices [7][8][9][10]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The report provides charts of the trends, basis, inter - period spreads, cross - variety spreads, and capital interest rates of treasury bond futures [13][15][16][17]. - **Exchange Rates**: The report provides charts of the central parity rates of the US dollar, euro against the RMB, and forward exchange rates, as well as the US dollar index and exchange rates between major currencies [20][21][22][24][25]. Member Introduction - Zhu Jintao, a master of economics from Jilin University, is the director of macro - financial research at Everbright Futures Research Institute [27]. - Wang Dongying, an index analyst with a master's degree from Columbia University, mainly tracks stock index futures [27].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. However, it gives specific investment ratings for different agricultural product varieties: - Corn: Oscillating downward [1] - Soybean Meal: Rising [1] - Edible Oils: Rising [1] - Eggs: Oscillating downward [1] - Pork: Oscillating [2] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Corn prices are affected by new grain supply pressure and market sentiment, with the 11 - month contract leading the decline and the 1 - month contract potentially rebounding after a sharp drop [1]. - Soybean meal prices are supported by concerns over long - term supply, and the strategy is to maintain a long - only mindset and participate in monthly positive spreads [1]. - Edible oils are in a bullish trend, but short - term fluctuations are affected by external market performance and inventory changes. The strategy is to participate in short - term long positions and sell put options [1]. - Egg prices are currently weak, but there is a possibility of a seasonal rebound in the future, although the peak is likely to be lower than last year [1]. - Pork prices are under supply pressure, but there is a possibility of a low - level rebound with the recovery of demand and the anti - involution trend [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Research Views - **Corn**: On Tuesday, corn prices decreased with increased positions. The 11 - month contract led the decline, and the 1 - month contract adjusted accordingly. Northeast corn prices were weak, while North China prices were strong over the weekend. Shandong Shouguang's deep - processing corn purchase price rose to 2490 yuan/ton on August 18, up 40 yuan/ton from last Friday. The market is waiting for new grain, and the futures price is expected to oscillate weakly [1]. - **Soybean Meal**: On Tuesday, CBOT soybeans fell due to profit - taking, but the reduced autumn harvest forecast provided support. US soybean meal rose, and domestic protein meal was strong during the day but fell at night. The import cost was slightly stronger, and the strategy is to maintain a long - only mindset and participate in monthly positive spreads [1]. - **Edible Oils**: On Tuesday, BMD palm oil closed lower due to profit - taking and weak crude oil. Domestic edible oils were strong during the day but fell at night, led by palm oil. The inventory of the three major domestic vegetable oils increased by 0.98 tons compared to last week. The strategy is to participate in short - term long positions and sell put options [1]. - **Eggs**: On Monday, egg futures continued to weaken. The main 2510 contract fell 2.17% to 3113 yuan/500 kg, and the near - month 2509 contract fell 2.7%. The spot price increased slightly. Terminal consumption was stable, and there is a possibility of a seasonal rebound in the future [1]. - **Pork**: On Monday, the main 2511 contract of pork futures weakened in the afternoon, closing down 0.9% at 13820 yuan/ton. The spot price decreased slightly. Supply pressure persists, but there is a possibility of a low - level rebound with demand recovery [2]. Market Information - Brazil's competition management agency CADE plans to investigate the signatories of the "Soybean Moratorium Plan," and the Brazilian National Association of Grain Exporters (ANEC) will appeal [2]. - ProFarmer's crop inspection shows that the expected corn yield per acre in Ohio in 2025 is 185.69 bushels, and in South Dakota is 174.18 bushels. The expected average number of soybean pods in Ohio is 1287.28, and in South Dakota is 1188.45 [3]. - The average soybean crushing rate of domestic oil mills reached 64.64% as of August 16, an increase of 2.08% from last week. The total soybean crushing volume was 241.68 tons, an increase of 7.79 tons from last week. The expected processing volume this week is 247 tons, with a crushing rate of 66.07% [4]. - The soybean crushing profit in Mato Grosso from August 11 - 15 was 392.46 reais/ton, slightly lower than the previous week. The soybean meal price was 1525.17 reais/ton, and the soybean oil price was 6166.27 reais/ton [4]. Variety Spreads - **Contract Spreads**: The report provides charts of 1 - 5 spreads for various agricultural products, including corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and pork [6][7][11][15] - **Contract Basis**: The report provides charts of the basis for various agricultural products, including corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and pork [14][17][19][24]

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Urea**: The domestic urea daily production continues to rise, but the domestic demand is still insufficient, and the fundamental driving force of urea is limited. The easing of China - India relations brings expectations of export growth. The short - term urea futures market will continue to be in a relatively strong state, but the upside is limited due to the price - stabilizing policy. It is not recommended to chase the rise blindly. Attention should be paid to the Indian tender results, China's participation in the supply, export policy dynamics, this week's inventory data, and spot trading conditions [1]. - **Soda Ash**: The supply level of soda ash is still high, and the demand side has not improved significantly. The fundamental situation of soda ash remains weak, and there is a lack of new driving forces in the futures market. It is expected that the short - term futures price will fluctuate weakly. Attention should be paid to whether environmental protection restrictions will disrupt the supply side, the overall trend of the commodity market, and changes in macro - sentiment [1]. - **Glass**: The supply and demand contradiction of glass still exists, and there are no favorable factors in the market. The short - term downstream may stock up raw sheets before the environmental protection restrictions in early September, but the subsequent downstream processing enterprises may be affected by environmental protection restrictions, and the rigid demand for glass and enterprise shipments will be further suppressed. It is expected that the weak state of the glass futures price will continue. Attention should be paid to the impact of environmental protection events on both supply and demand sides, glass spot trading conditions, the overall sentiment of the commodity market, and changes in macro - sentiment [1]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market Information Urea - On August 19, the urea futures warehouse receipts on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange were 3,573, unchanged from the previous trading day, with 50 valid forecasts. - On August 19, the daily output of the urea industry was 198,400 tons, an increase of 2,000 tons from the previous working day and an increase of 30,100 tons from the same period last year. The operating rate on this day was 85.70%, a 9.39% increase from 76.31% in the same period last year. - On August 19, the spot prices of small - particle urea in various domestic regions were as follows: Shandong 1,730 yuan/ton (unchanged), Henan 1,740 yuan/ton (+10), Hebei 1,740 yuan/ton (unchanged), Anhui 1,750 yuan/ton (unchanged), Jiangsu 1,740 yuan/ton (unchanged), and Shanxi 1,610 yuan/ton (unchanged) [4]. Soda Ash & Glass - On August 19, the number of soda ash futures warehouse receipts on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange was 11,020, an increase of 828 from the previous trading day, with 851 valid forecasts; the number of glass futures warehouse receipts was 2,438, unchanged from the previous trading day. - On August 19, the spot prices of soda ash in various regions were as follows: In North China, light soda ash was 1,250 yuan/ton, and heavy soda ash was 1,350 yuan/ton; in Central China, light soda ash was 1,180 yuan/ton, and heavy soda ash was 1,300 yuan/ton; in East China, light soda ash was 1,150 yuan/ton, and heavy soda ash was 1,300 yuan/ton; in South China, light soda ash was 1,400 yuan/ton, and heavy soda ash was 1,450 yuan/ton; in Southwest China, light soda ash was 1,300 yuan/ton, and heavy soda ash was 1,400 yuan/ton; in Northwest China, light soda ash was 1,020 yuan/ton (-30), and heavy soda ash was 1,020 yuan/ton (-30). - On August 19, the operating rate of the soda ash industry was 88.89%, down from 90.58% on the previous working day. - On August 19, the average price of the float glass market was 1,153 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; the daily output of the industry was 159,600 tons, unchanged from the previous day [6][7]. Chart Analysis - The report presents multiple charts, including those of urea basis, soda ash basis, urea and soda ash main contract trading volume and open interest, urea 2601 - 2509 spread, soda ash 2601 - 2509 spread, urea and soda ash spot price trends, urea - methanol futures spread, and glass - soda ash futures spread. All chart data sources are iFind and the Research Institute of Everbright Futures [9][15][21]. Research Team Introduction - The resource product research team of Everbright Futures includes Zhang Xiaojin, the director of resource product research at the Research Institute of Everbright Futures, who focuses on the sugar industry; Zhang Linglu, an analyst responsible for research on futures varieties such as urea, soda ash, and glass; and Sun Chengzhen, an analyst mainly engaged in fundamental research and data analysis of varieties such as cotton, cotton yarn, and ferroalloys [23].

Report Overview - This is a daily data tracking report on stock index futures dated August 20, 2025, covering index trends, impacts of sector movements on indices, basis and annualized opening costs of stock index futures, and points differences and annualized costs during contract roll - overs [1] Index Trends - On August 19, the Shanghai Composite Index dropped 0.02% to close at 3727.29 points with a turnover of 1.060899 trillion yuan; the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.12% to 11821.63 points with a turnover of 1.52747 trillion yuan [1] - The CSI 1000 Index rose 0.07% with a turnover of 558.781 billion yuan, opening at 7231.93, closing at 7242.85, hitting a high of 7289.03 and a low of 7193.59 [1] - The CSI 500 Index declined 0.19% with a turnover of 444.629 billion yuan, opening at 6663.16, closing at 6655.31, reaching a high of 6707.11 and a low of 6631.12 [1] - The SSE 50 Index tumbled 0.93% with a turnover of 153.14 billion yuan, opening at 2843.28, closing at 2812.42, peaking at 2858.41 and bottoming at 2812.3 [1] - The SSE 300 Index decreased 0.38% with a turnover of 553.536 billion yuan, opening at 4241.77, closing at 4223.37, reaching a high of 4264.23 and a low of 4215.21 [1] Impacts of Sector Movements on Indices - The CSI 1000 Index rose 5.25 points compared to the previous closing price. Sectors like communication, automotive, and computer pulled the index up, while basic chemicals, pharmaceuticals, and national defense and military industries dragged it down [3] - The CSI 500 Index dropped 12.86 points. Sectors such as computer, household appliances, and communication boosted the index, while basic chemicals, non - bank finance, and national defense and military industries weighed it down [3] - The SSE 300 Index fell 16.04 points. Sectors like communication and food and beverage supported the index, while power equipment, pharmaceuticals, and non - bank finance dampened it [3] - The SSE 50 Index declined 26.45 points. Sectors including electronics, pharmaceuticals, and non - bank finance had a negative impact on the index [3] Basis and Annualized Opening Costs of Stock Index Futures - For IM contracts, IM00 had an average daily basis of - 49.32, IM01 of - 96.6, IM02 of - 209.21, and IM03 of - 366.06 [13] - For IC contracts, IC00 had an average daily basis of - 50.15, IC01 of - 89.41, IC02 of - 176.29, and IC03 of - 299.12 [13] - For IF contracts, IF00 had an average daily basis of - 3.95, IF01 of - 9.41, IF02 of - 21.61, and IF03 of - 41.08 [13] - For IH contracts, IH00 had an average daily basis of 3.34, IH01 of 3.8, IH02 of 6.81, and IH03 of 9.06 [13] Points Differences and Annualized Costs during Contract Roll - overs - For IM contracts, data on points differences and annualized costs between different contract periods (e.g., IM00 - 01, IM00 - 02, etc.) at different times (from 09:45 to 15:00) are provided [23] - For IC contracts, similar data on points differences and annualized costs between different contract periods at different times are presented [27] - For IF contracts, relevant data on points differences and annualized costs between different contract periods at different times are given [25] - For IH contracts, data on points differences and annualized costs between different contract periods at different times are also included [26]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Cotton**: The ICE U.S. cotton dropped 0.41% to 67.53 cents per pound on Tuesday, and CF601 decreased 0.11% to 14,100 yuan per ton. The main - contract positions increased by 2,482 lots to 488,500 lots. The cotton arrival price in Xinjiang dropped by 2 yuan to 1,500 yuan per ton, while the China Cotton Price Index (Grade 3128B) rose by 9 yuan to 15,243 yuan per ton. Internationally, the macro - level is the focus, and both the U.S. dollar index and U.S. cotton prices are oscillating. Fundamentally, the supply - demand pattern of U.S. cotton in the new year has a marginal narrowing, with a year - on - year decrease in the inventory - to - sales ratio, but the driving force is limited. Domestically, the market sentiment is warm, but the correlation between the Shanghai Composite Index and commodity or Zhengzhou cotton indices is not strong, so it provides support rather than an upward drive. New cotton is likely to have a good harvest, and the overall domestic supply - demand pattern has little contradiction, with a slightly lower expected inventory - to - sales ratio. In July, China imported 50,000 tons of cotton, a slight monthly increase but still at a low level, and the import volume in the new year is expected to be low. Overall, Zhengzhou cotton has support at the bottom, but needs more upward drive with the approaching of new cotton harvest and listing, and is expected to be in a firm oscillation in the short term [1]. - **Sugar**: Brazil exported 1.8832 million tons of sugar and molasses in the first two weeks of August, with a daily average of 171,200 tons. In August 2024, Brazil's sugar export volume was 3.9208 million tons, with a daily average of 178,200 tons. The spot quotes of Guangxi and Yunnan sugar - making groups remained stable, and most processing sugar mills' quotes were also stable, with only a few down 20 yuan. The raw sugar futures price fluctuated narrowly. Brazil is in the peak production period, with poor - quality sugar and a high sugar - making ratio maintaining production. Domestically, the quotes are flat without new drivers, and the July import data has been digested. Future import situations in the following months need attention, and the futures price is expected to continue narrow - range oscillation [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Research Viewpoints - **Cotton**: The daily performance of ICE U.S. cotton, CF601, and the main - contract positions are presented. The prices of cotton in Xinjiang and the China Cotton Price Index are given. The international market is affected by macro factors, and the domestic market has a warm sentiment but weak correlation with the stock index. New cotton is likely to have a good harvest, and the supply - demand pattern is relatively stable. The short - term view is firm oscillation [1]. - **Sugar**: The export data of Brazil in August and the spot quotes of domestic sugar - making groups and processing sugar mills are provided. The raw sugar futures price has narrow - range fluctuations, and the domestic market lacks new drivers, with the futures price expected to oscillate narrowly [1]. Daily Data Monitoring - **Cotton**: The 9 - 1 contract spread is - 280, up 15; the main - contract basis is 1,143, up 34. The spot prices in Xinjiang, the whole country, and Nanning are given [2]. - **Sugar**: The 9 - 1 contract spread is 60, down 11; the main - contract basis is 339, up 11 [2]. Market Information - **Cotton**: On August 19, the cotton futures warehouse receipts decreased by 166 to 7,596, with 249 valid forecasts. The arrival prices in different regions of China are provided. The yarn and short - fiber cloth comprehensive loads remained unchanged, while the inventories decreased slightly [4]. - **Sugar**: On August 19, the spot prices in Nanning and Liuzhou remained unchanged. The sugar futures warehouse receipts decreased by 445 to 16,486, with 1 valid forecast [4][5]. Chart Analysis - **Cotton**: Multiple charts are presented, including the closing price, basis, 9 - 1 spread, 1% tariff quota internal - external spread, warehouse receipts and valid forecasts, and the China Cotton Price Index of cotton [8][11][13]. - **Sugar**: Charts such as the closing price, basis, 9 - 1 spread, and warehouse receipts and valid forecasts of sugar are shown [16][19]. Research Team Personnel Introduction - Zhang Xiaojin, the director of resource research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, focuses on the sugar industry, and has won many analyst awards [21]. - Zhang Linglu, an analyst at Everbright Futures Research Institute, is responsible for research on urea, soda ash, and glass futures, and has won many honors [22]. - Sun Chengzhen, an analyst at Everbright Futures Research Institute, is engaged in fundamental research on cotton, cotton yarn, and ferroalloy, and won the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange's textile senior analyst title in 2024 [23].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The provided report does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - On August 19, 2025, the 2511 contract of lithium carbonate futures dropped 1.79% to 87,540 yuan/ton. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate rose 1,100 yuan/ton to 85,700 yuan/ton, and the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate also increased 1,100 yuan/ton to 83,400 yuan/ton. The price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) went up 1,000 yuan/ton to 77,740 yuan/ton. The warehouse receipt inventory increased 60 tons to 23,615 tons [3]. - Jiangte Motor's subsidiary, Yichun Yinli, will resume production after equipment maintenance. The weekly output of lithium carbonate increased by 424 tons to 19,980 tons. It is expected that the supply in August will increase by 3% to 84,200 tons. The lithium consumption of two major cathode materials in August is expected to increase by 8% to 86,000 tons LCE. The total social inventory decreased by 162 tons to 142,256 tons, with upstream destocking and restocking in other and downstream sectors [3]. - The suspension of mining operations has slightly adjusted the oversupply of resources, but there are still uncertainties in other mines. The lithium ore price has exceeded $1,000/ton, providing some support for lithium prices. The price reached over 90,000 yuan/ton this week. With the news of resumption of production and increased imports, there may be a short - term correction, but further attention should be paid to supply disruptions in the resource end [3]. 3. Section Summaries 3.1 Ore Prices The report presents charts of prices for various lithium ores such as lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China), lithium mica (with different Li₂O contents), and phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (with different Li₂O contents) from 2024 to 2025 [6][8][10]. 3.2 Lithium and Lithium Salt Prices Charts show the prices of metal lithium, battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium hydroxide, and lithium hexafluorophosphate from 2024 to 2025 [12][14][16]. 3.3 Price Spreads The report includes charts analyzing price spreads such as the difference between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, and price differences between domestic and CIF prices for lithium hydroxide and lithium carbonate, as well as the basis from 2024 to 2025 [18][20][21]. 3.4 Precursor & Cathode Materials Charts display the prices of ternary precursors, ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, lithium manganate, and lithium cobalt oxide from 2024 to 2025 [22][25][28]. 3.5 Lithium Battery Prices The report provides charts of prices for 523 square ternary cells, square lithium iron phosphate cells, lithium cobalt oxide cells, and square lithium iron phosphate batteries from 2024 to 2025 [31][33][34]. 3.6 Inventory Charts show the downstream, smelter, and other环节 inventories of lithium carbonate from December 26, 2024, to August 14, 2025 [35][37][38]. 3.7 Production Costs A chart presents the production costs and profits of lithium carbonate from different raw materials such as purchased ternary pole piece black powder, lithium iron phosphate pole piece black powder, lithium mica concentrate, and lithium spodumene concentrate from 2024 to 2025 [39][40][41]. 4. Research Team - Zhan Dapeng, a master of science, is the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, a senior precious metals researcher, and has won multiple industry awards [43]. - Wang Heng, a master of finance from the University of Adelaide, Australia, is a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, focusing on aluminum and silicon [44]. - Zhu Xi, a master of science from the University of Warwick, UK, is a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, focusing on lithium and nickel [44]. 5. Contact Information - Company address: 6th Floor, Building 1, Lujiazui Century Financial Plaza, No. 729 Yanggao South Road, China (Shanghai) Pilot Free Trade Zone - Company phone: 021 - 80212222 - Fax: 021 - 80212200 - Customer service hotline: 400 - 700 - 7979 - Zip code: 200127 [47]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Copper: Overnight copper prices fluctuated weakly, and the domestic spot import window opened. The market is cautious ahead of the Jackson Hole "Global Central Bank Annual Meeting" and Powell's speech. Domestically, measures are proposed to stabilize the real - estate market. LME copper inventory decreased by 450 tons, Comex inventory increased by 792 tons, SHFE copper warehouse receipts remained stable, and BC copper decreased by 5571 tons. With the end of the seasonal off - season approaching, downstream orders are expected to pick up. Copper prices are in a narrow - range fluctuation, with a balance between bulls and bears waiting for external factors to break the current shock [1]. - Aluminum: Alumina, Shanghai aluminum, and aluminum alloy all fluctuated weakly. Alumina's fundamental support weakened, but short - term deep decline is restricted. As the "Golden September" peak season approaches, the pressure from short - sellers may ease. Aluminum ingot casting volume increased, and some terminal sectors are stocking up in advance, resulting in an irregular inventory build - up. Electrolytic aluminum is in a "time - for - space" rhythm, and inventory trends and early peak - season start signals need to be tracked [1][2]. - Nickel: Overnight, LME nickel fell 0.73% and Shanghai nickel fell 0.23%. LME inventory decreased by 1086 tons, and domestic SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 210 tons. The LME 0 - 3 month premium remained negative, and the imported nickel premium was stable. Nickel ore premiums in Indonesia slightly declined. Stainless - steel raw material prices were divided, and the stainless - steel social inventory decreased by 2.48% week - on - week. The overall fundamentals of nickel remained stable, showing a fluctuating trend [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Data Monitoring - **Copper**: The price of flat - water copper decreased by 175 yuan/ton, and the flat - water copper premium decreased by 25 yuan/ton. The price of 1 bright scrap copper in Guangdong decreased by 100 yuan/ton. LME copper inventory decreased by 450 tons, COMEX inventory increased by 4 tons, and the total domestic + bonded area social inventory decreased by 0.1 million tons [3]. - **Aluminum**: The Wuxi and Nanhai aluminum prices increased by 50 yuan/ton. The price difference between Nanhai and Wuxi remained unchanged, and the spot premium was stable. LME aluminum inventory remained unchanged, SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 25 tons, and the total inventory increased by 7039 tons. The alumina social inventory increased by 0.4 million tons [4]. - **Nickel**: The price of Jinchuan nickel increased by 100 yuan/ton, and the premium of Jinchuan nickel over Wuxi increased by 250 yuan/ton. LME nickel inventory decreased by 1086 tons, SHFE nickel warehouse receipts decreased by 210 tons, and the total nickel inventory increased by 768 tons. The stainless - steel warehouse receipts decreased by 253 tons [4]. - **Zinc**: The main contract settlement price decreased by 0.6%, and the LME S3 price remained unchanged. The SHFE - LME ratio decreased. The SMM 0 and 1 spot prices decreased by 100 yuan/ton. The domestic and imported zinc spot premiums remained unchanged. LME zinc inventory decreased by 3650 tons, and the social inventory increased by 0.49 million tons [5]. - **Tin**: The main contract settlement price decreased by 0.1%, and the LME S3 price decreased by 2.1%. The SHFE - LME ratio increased. The SMM spot price decreased by 600 yuan/ton. The 60% and 40% tin concentrate prices decreased by 3500 yuan/ton. LME tin inventory decreased by 25 tons, and SHFE tin inventory decreased by 13 tons [5]. 3.2 Chart Analysis - **3.2.1 Spot Premium**: Charts show the historical trends of spot premiums for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [7][9][12]. - **3.2.2 SHFE Near - Far Month Spread**: Charts display the historical trends of the near - far month spreads for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2020 - 2025 [15][18][21]. - **3.2.3 LME Inventory**: Charts present the historical trends of LME inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [23][25][27]. - **3.2.4 SHFE Inventory**: Charts show the historical trends of SHFE inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [30][32][34]. - **3.2.5 Social Inventory**: Charts display the historical trends of social inventories for copper (including bonded areas), aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless - steel, and 300 - series from 2019 - 2025 [36][38][40]. - **3.2.6 Smelting Profit**: Charts present the historical trends of copper concentrate index, rough copper processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless - steel 304 smelting profit rate from 2019 - 2025 [43][45][47]. 3.3 Team Introduction - Zhan Dapeng, a master of science, is the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, a senior researcher of precious metals, a gold intermediate investment analyst, and an outstanding metal analyst of the Shanghai Futures Exchange. He has over a decade of commodity research experience, serves many leading spot enterprises, and has published dozens of professional articles. His team has won multiple industry awards [50]. - Wang Heng, a master of finance from the University of Adelaide in Australia, is a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly focusing on aluminum and silicon research [50]. - Zhu Xi, a master of science from the University of Warwick in the UK, is a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly focusing on lithium and nickel research [51].

Research View - On August 19th, industrial silicon fluctuated weakly, with the main contract 2511 closing at 8,625 yuan/ton, a daily decline of 1.26%, and the position decreased by 11,014 lots to 287,000 lots. The reference price of Baichuan industrial silicon spot was 9,615 yuan/ton, remaining stable compared to the previous trading day. The price of the lowest deliverable 421 rose back to 8,950 yuan/ton, and the spot premium widened to 340 yuan/ton [2]. - Polysilicon also fluctuated weakly, with the main contract 2511 closing at 52,260 yuan/ton, a daily decline of 0.53%, and the position increased by 2,459 lots to 138,000 lots. The price of N-type recycled polysilicon material rose to 47,000 yuan/ton, while the price of the lowest deliverable silicon material dropped to 44,500 yuan/ton, and the spot discount narrowed to 7,670 yuan/ton [2]. - Industrial silicon production in the southwest continued to increase, while the organic silicon industry reduced production and procurement. The growth of polysilicon output was expected to be limited, and the inventory depletion of industrial silicon slowed down. There was obvious upward pressure, and it would still follow the fluctuation rhythm of coal and coke within the range [2]. - There was a strong separation between quantity and price in polysilicon. There was a contradiction between cost - based pricing and rising production. Warehouse receipt registration was difficult to relieve the pressure on factory warehouses. Market news about price adjustments and production cuts was complex with many differences, and the positive feedback from downstream was limited. It was difficult to continue to rise sharply, and short - selling at the upper edge of the range could be continued. Attention should be paid to the actual progress of production cuts and whether the inventory pressure could be reduced [2]. Daily Data Monitoring Industrial Silicon - Futures settlement prices: The main contract decreased from 8,735 yuan/ton on August 18th to 8,640 yuan/ton on August 19th, a decrease of 95 yuan/ton; the near - month contract decreased from 8,720 yuan/ton to 8,610 yuan/ton, a decrease of 110 yuan/ton [4]. - Spot prices: Most of the prices of different grades and regions remained stable, with only a few varieties showing price changes. For example, the price of 421 silicon (for organic silicon use, East China) decreased by 100 yuan/ton, and the price of 421 silicon (for organic silicon use, Kunming) also decreased by 100 yuan/ton [4]. - Current lowest deliverable price: It remained at 8,950 yuan/ton, and the spot premium increased from 230 yuan/ton to 340 yuan/ton [4]. - Inventory: The industrial silicon warehouse receipt remained at 50,710 tons. The Guangzhou Futures Exchange inventory increased from 251,700 tons to 252,995 tons, an increase of 1,295 tons. The factory warehouse inventory increased from 267,300 tons to 268,400 tons, an increase of 1,100 tons. The total social inventory increased by 100 tons to 439,900 tons [4]. Polysilicon - Futures settlement prices: The main contract decreased from 52,280 yuan/ton on August 18th to 52,260 yuan/ton on August 19th, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton; the near - month contract decreased from 52,280 yuan/ton to 52,170 yuan/ton, a decrease of 110 yuan/ton [4]. - Spot prices: The price of N - type polysilicon dense material increased from 44,000 yuan/ton to 46,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 2,000 yuan/ton; the price of N - type recycled polysilicon material increased from 45,500 yuan/ton to 47,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 1,500 yuan/ton; the price of N - type granular silicon material increased from 34,000 yuan/ton to 44,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 10,000 yuan/ton. The price of P - type polysilicon dense material and P - type recycled polysilicon material remained unchanged [4]. - Current lowest deliverable price: It remained at 44,500 yuan/ton, and the spot discount narrowed from 7,780 yuan/ton to 7,670 yuan/ton [4]. - Inventory: The polysilicon warehouse receipt remained at 5,820 tons. The Guangzhou Futures Exchange inventory increased from 108,600 tons to 168,000 tons, an increase of 59,000 tons. The factory warehouse inventory decreased from 273,400 tons to 267,900 tons, a decrease of 6,000 tons. The total social inventory decreased by 6,000 tons to 268,000 tons [4]. Organic Silicon - Spot prices: The DMC East China market price decreased from 11,500 yuan/ton to 11,000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 500 yuan/ton; the price of raw rubber decreased from 12,500 yuan/ton to 12,300 yuan/ton, a decrease of 200 yuan/ton; the price of 107 glue decreased from 12,000 yuan/ton to 1,180 yuan/ton, a decrease of 200 yuan/ton; the price of dimethyl silicone oil increased from 12,000 yuan/ton to 14,300 yuan/ton, an increase of 2,300 yuan/ton [4]. Chart Analysis Industrial Silicon and Cost - End Prices - The charts show the prices of different grades of industrial silicon, grade spreads, regional spreads, electricity prices, silica prices, and refined coal prices [5][7][10]. Downstream Product Prices - The charts display the prices of DMC, organic silicon products, polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components [13][14][16]. Inventory - The charts present the industrial silicon futures inventory, factory warehouse inventory, weekly industry inventory, weekly inventory changes, DMC weekly inventory, and polysilicon weekly inventory [19][22]. Cost and Profit - The charts show the average cost levels, average profit levels, weekly cost - profit of industrial silicon, aluminum alloy processing industry profit, DMC cost - profit, and polysilicon cost - profit [25][27][32]. Team Introduction - Zhan Dapeng, a master of science, is the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, a senior researcher of precious metals, a medium - level investment analyst of gold, an excellent metal analyst of the Shanghai Futures Exchange, and the best industrial product futures analyst of Futures Daily and Securities Times. He has more than ten years of experience in commodity research, serves many leading spot enterprises, and has published dozens of professional articles in public newspapers and magazines. His team has won the awards of the 16th and 15th Best Metal Industry Futures Research Teams of Futures Daily and Securities Times and the title of Excellent Non - ferrous Metal Industry Team of the Shanghai Futures Exchange in 2016 [34]. - Wang Heng, a master of finance from the University of Adelaide, Australia, is a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly researching aluminum and silicon [34]. - Zhu Xi, a master of science from the University of Warwick, UK, is a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly researching lithium and nickel [35].

Report Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating provided in the report Core View - The report analyzes the market conditions of various black commodities on August 20, 2025. It provides short - term outlooks for steel, iron ore, coking coal, coke, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon, with most expected to show weak or volatile trends due to factors such as supply - demand imbalances, production changes, and market sentiment [1][3] Summary by Section Research View - **Steel**: The rebar futures price fell, with the 2510 contract closing at 3126 yuan/ton, down 0.92%. Spot prices also declined, and trading volume decreased. Rebar has been accumulating inventory above the seasonal norm, and weak credit and investment data in July have weakened the supply - demand fundamentals. Some Tangshan steel mills received short - term production restriction notices, but production decline was limited. Meanwhile, some enterprises in the Beijing - Tianjin - Hebei region received work - stoppage notices, further reducing demand. The short - term outlook is for a weak and volatile trend [1] - **Iron Ore**: The main contract i2601 price dropped to 768 yuan/ton, down 0.13%. Australian shipments were stable with a slight increase, and Brazilian shipments increased significantly. The global iron ore shipment volume rose. Iron ore demand, measured by hot metal production, fluctuated slightly at 240.66 tons. Both port and steel mill inventories increased. The short - term price is expected to be range - bound [1] - **Coking Coal**: The coking coal futures price rose, with the 2601 contract closing at 1194.5 yuan/ton, up 0.59%. Some domestic mines resumed production, and downstream procurement slowed. However, hot metal production remained high, and coking enterprises' profits improved, leading to high production enthusiasm. The short - term outlook is for a volatile trend [1] - **Coke**: The coke futures price increased, with the 2601 contract closing at 1708.5 yuan/ton, up 0.38%. Coking enterprises' production profits continued to improve, and they were highly motivated to produce. Steel mills' demand for coke remained stable, but low steel prices squeezed steel mill profits, making some downstream parties cautious about coke price increases. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile [1] - **Manganese Silicon**: The manganese silicon futures price weakened, with the main contract closing at 5842 yuan/ton, down 2.92%. The overall black sector was weak, and alloy prices led the decline. Production increased due to improved profits, while demand remained low, and cost support was weak. The short - term outlook is for wide - range volatility [1][3] - **Ferrosilicon**: The ferrosilicon futures price also weakened, with the main contract closing at 5678 yuan/ton, down 3.53%. The black sector was weak, and alloy prices led the decline. Downstream production restriction expectations limited demand, while supply increased significantly. The short - term trend is expected to be wide - range volatile [3] Daily Data Monitoring - **Contract Spreads and Basis**: The report provides the latest contract spreads, basis, and spot prices for various commodities such as rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon, along with their daily changes [4] - **Profit and Price Ratios**: It also presents data on rebar's disk profit, long - process profit, short - process profit, and various price ratios such as the hot - rolled coil to rebar ratio, rebar to iron ore ratio, etc., along with their daily changes [4] Chart Analysis - **Main Contract Prices**: The report includes historical price charts of the main contracts for rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon from 2020 to 2025 [5][7][9] - **Main Contract Basis**: It shows historical basis charts for these commodities, which help analyze the relationship between futures and spot prices [18][19] - **Inter - period Contract Spreads**: The report provides historical inter - period contract spread charts for different commodities, which are useful for analyzing price differences between different contract periods [26][28] - **Inter - commodity Contract Spreads**: It includes charts of inter - commodity contract spreads such as the hot - rolled coil to rebar ratio, rebar to iron ore ratio, etc., to analyze the relative price relationships between different commodities [41][42] - **Rebar Profits**: The report presents historical profit charts for rebar, including disk profit, long - process profit, and short - process profit, to analyze rebar's profitability [45][47] Black Research Team Member Introduction - The report introduces the members of the black research team, including their positions, work experience, and professional qualifications [53][54]