黑色商品日报 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 钢材 | 螺纹钢：昨日螺纹盘面窄幅震荡，截止日盘螺纹 2510 合约收盘价格为 2981 元/吨，较上一交易收盘价格 | 低位整理 | | | 上涨 6 元/吨，涨幅为 0.2%，持仓减少 1.97 万手。现货价格小幅波动，成交维持低位，唐山地区迁安普方 | | | | 坯价格上涨 20 元/吨至 2900 元/吨，杭州市场中天螺纹价格持平于 3080 元/吨，全国建材成交量 10.25 万 | | | | 吨。据海关数据，2025 年 5 月中国出口钢材 1057.8 万吨，较上月增加 11.6 万吨，环比增长 1.1%；1-5 月 | | | | 累计出口钢材 4846.9 万吨，同比增长 8.9%。5 月中国进口钢材 48.1 万吨，较上月减少 4.1 万吨，环比下降 | | | | 7.9%；1-5 月累计进口钢材 255.3 万吨，同比下降 16.1%。5 月钢材出口量创下去年 11 月以来的新高，出 | | | | 口量的大幅增长，对缓解国内供需压力起到积极影响。目前螺纹现货供需矛盾不明显，部 ...

请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 EVERBRIGHT FUTURES 1 | | 虽然期货盘面价格上涨，但大豆盘面榨利差，油厂进口积极性低。期货的强势与 进口成本走高，远期供应担忧有关。操作上，豆粕 91、15 正套持有，单边多头 | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 思路。 | | | | 周一，BMD 棕榈油震荡运行，市场等待 MPOB 报告指引。之前一项调查显示， 尽管出口需求旺盛，但受到产量温和复苏推动，马来西亚 5 月棕榈油库存预计攀 升至 201 万吨，环比上涨 7.74%。其中产量环比增长 3%至 174 万吨。原油价格偏 | | | 油脂 | 强运行，因地缘紧张加剧和美国经济数据好于预期。国内方面，油脂期价偏强运 | 震荡 | | | 行。棕榈油和豆油的涨幅超过菜籽油，蛋白粕走势强于油脂。库存方面，油脂库 | | | | 存稳中增加，大豆压榨量增加是主要原因，其次是油脂需求平淡，国内供应宽松 | | | | 预期持续。操作上，短线参与，豆油和棕榈油买 9 卖 1。 | | | | 周一，鸡蛋期货下跌，主力 2507 合约下跌后低位震荡，尾盘小幅回收，日收跌 | | | | ...

有色商品日报 有色商品日报（2025 年 6 月 10 日） 一、研究观点 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 EVERBRIGHT FUTURES 1 有色商品日报 | | 吨。佛山 A00 报价小幅回涨至 20080 元/吨，对无锡 A00 贴水 110 元/吨，下游铝棒加 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 工费多地持稳；铝杆 1A60、6/8 系及低碳铝杆加工费均持稳。铸造铝合金期货今日上 | | | | | | | 市，首批合约 2511 至 2605 挂牌基准价均为 18365 元/吨偏低，或冲高回落。氧化铝扭 | | | | | | | 亏为盈，企业复产规模加快，现货格局改善，库存逐渐承压。矿价前期炒作空间不再、 | | | | | | | 后续支撑有限，现货锚定成本定价存在同步回调，期货盘整为主。美国再度提升铝进口 | | | | | | | | | | 关税，风险溢价影响淡化后引发外需走弱逻辑。因各地铝水比例提升，铝锭到货量压减 | | | 延续去库，但周转和去库速度放缓。电解铝多空交织、偏弱调整。 | | | | | | | ...

软商品日报 光大期货软商品日报（2025 年 6 月 10 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 棉花 | 周一，ICE 美棉上涨 0.19%，报收 68.34 美分/磅，CF509 环比上涨 1.09%，报收 13495 | 震荡 | | | 元/吨，主力合约持仓环比增加 7811 手至 53.85 万手，新疆地区棉花到厂价为 14443 | | | | 元/吨，较前一日上涨 12 元/吨，中国棉花价格指数 3128B 级为 14620 元/吨，较前 | | | | 一日上涨 59 元/吨。国际市场方面，近期宏观层面仍是主要影响因素，美元指数重 | | | | 心环比小幅下移，美棉价格没有方向驱动。国内市场方面，宏观层面有新消息，中 | | | | 美经贸磋商机制第一次会议于 6 月 9 日在英国伦敦举行，市场情绪提振，郑棉期 | | | | 价重心上移。基本面来看，淡季周期内，下游纺织企业开机负荷相对偏低，周环比 | | | | 下降，产成品库存逐渐累积，织厂原材料库存已经降低近年来同期低位水平，需求 | | | | 端支撑偏弱。展望未来，宏观层 ...

光期研究 光期黑色：铁矿石基差及价差监测日报 2025 年 6 月 1 0 日 1 光大证券 2020 年 半 年 度 业 绩 E V E R B R I G H T S E C U R I T I E S 1.1 合约价差 | 期货合约 | 今日收盘价 | 上日收盘价 | 变化 | 合约价差 | 今日价差 | 上日价差 | 变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | I05 | 647.5 | 652.5 | -5.0 | I05-I09 | -55.5 | -55.0 | -0.5 | | I09 | 703.0 | 707.5 | -4.5 | I09-I01 | 36.5 | 36.0 | 0.5 | | I01 | 666.5 | 671.5 | -5.0 | I01-I05 | 19.0 | 19.0 | 0.0 | 图表1：09-01合约价差（单位：元/吨） 图表2：01-05合约价差（单位：元/吨） 0 50 100 150 200 01 01 02 03 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 0 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - The current large basis of stock index futures reflects market hedging demand, which depends on the existence of obvious Alpha returns. The market's focus remains on the consumer and technology sectors. The high - tech manufacturing industry in China is in a capital expenditure expansion cycle, and the consumer sector benefits from policy support. In June, these two sectors are expected to be the main focus of the market. The bond market's focus has returned to changes in the capital side. Although there were concerns about capital tightening in June, after the central bank's operations, the expectation of capital tightening has weakened, and the bond market is expected to oscillate strongly [1]. - The stock index futures are expected to oscillate, and the bond futures are also expected to oscillate [1]. Summary by Directory Research Views - **Stock Index Futures**: The large basis of stock index futures reflects market hedging demand, which depends on Alpha returns. Last week, the market's focus was on consumer and technology sectors. The high - tech manufacturing industry is in a capital expenditure expansion cycle, and the consumer sector benefits from policies. In May, the retail of three major white - goods maintained a high year - on - year growth rate (over 60% each), and passenger car retail remained booming (16% year - on - year). There may be a pulse in overseas demand for textile, clothing, and electronic products due to "rush - to - export" [1]. - **Bond Futures**: On June 10, 2025, the 30 - year bond futures main contract rose 0.35%, the 10 - year main contract rose 0.09%, and the 5 - year and 2 - year main contracts were basically stable. The central bank conducted 173.8 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations with a stable interest rate of 1.4%, resulting in a net injection of 173.8 billion yuan. Capital interest rates declined slightly. The bond market's focus has returned to the capital side. Due to large maturing pressure of inter - bank certificates of deposit and increased government bond issuance, there were concerns about capital tightening in June, but after the central bank's operations, the expectation of capital tightening has weakened, and the bond market is expected to oscillate strongly [1]. Daily Price Changes - **Stock Index Futures**: On June 9, 2025, compared with June 6, 2025, IH rose 3.0 points (0.11%), IF rose 12.4 points (0.32%), IC rose 41.0 points (0.72%), and IM rose 67.6 points (1.11%) [4]. - **Stock Indexes**: The Shanghai Composite 50 Index fell 2.0 points (- 0.08%), the CSI 300 Index rose 11.3 points (0.29%), the CSI 500 Index rose 43.6 points (0.76%), and the CSI 1000 Index rose 66.1 points (1.07%) [4]. - **Bond Futures**: TS remained unchanged (0.00%), TF fell 0.015 points (- 0.01%), T rose 0.075 points (0.07%), and TL rose 0.36 points (0.30%) [4]. Market News - In May 2025, China's exports denominated in US dollars increased 4.8% year - on - year (previous value: 8.1%), and imports decreased 3.4% year - on - year (previous value: - 0.2%) [5]. - In May 2025, the national consumer price index decreased 0.1% year - on - year. From January to May, the average national consumer price index decreased 0.1% compared with the same period last year [5]. Chart Analysis - **Stock Index Futures**: There are charts showing the trends of IH, IF, IM, IC main contracts and their respective basis trends [7][8][11]. - **Bond Futures**: There are charts showing the trends of bond futures main contracts, bond spot yields, basis, inter - period spreads, cross - variety spreads, and capital interest rates [14][16][18]. - **Exchange Rates**: There are charts showing the central parity rates of the US dollar, euro against the RMB, forward US dollar against the RMB for 1M and 3M, forward euro against the RMB for 1M and 3M, US dollar index, euro against the US dollar, pound against the US dollar, and US dollar against the yen [21][22][25].

光大期货能化商品日报 光大期货能化商品日报（2025 年 6 月 10 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周一油价重心继续上移，其中 WTI 7 月合约收盘上涨 0.71 美元至 | | | | 65.29 美元/桶，涨幅 1.10%。布伦特 8 月合约收盘上涨 0.57 美元 | | | | 至 67.04 美元/桶，涨幅 0.86%。SC2507 以 479.3 元/桶收盘，上涨 | | | | 5.5 元/桶，涨幅为 1.16%。调查显示，上月欧佩克石油产量为每日 | | | | 2675 万桶，较 4 月总产量增加 15 万桶/日。根据 OPEC+八个成 | | | | 员国关于 5 月产量的协议，其中五个 OPEC 成员国阿尔及利亚、 | | | | 伊拉克、科威特、沙特阿拉伯和阿联酋应将产量提高 31 万桶/日。 | | | 原油 | 这五个国家的实际增产为 18 万桶/日。5 月份我国进口原油 4660 | 震荡 | | | 万吨，环比下降 3.0%，同比下降 0.8%。1-5 月份，中国累计进口 | | | | 原油 2296 ...

软商品日报 光大期货软商品日报（2025 年 6 月 6 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 棉花 | 周四，ICE 美棉上涨 0.21%，报收 67.91 美分/磅，CF509 环比收平，报收 13245 元 | 震荡反 | | | /吨，主力合约持仓环比增加 4771 手至 53.02 万手，新疆地区棉花到厂价为 14431 | | | | 元/吨，较前一日持平，中国棉花价格指数 3128B 级为 14543 元/吨，较前一日下降 | | | | 1 元/吨。国际市场方面，近期宏观层面仍是主要影响因素，美元指数重心周环比 | | | | 下移，市场对美国经济的担忧在逐渐升温，但昨日中美元首通话提振市场情绪，美 | | | | 棉价格盘中拉升。基本面驱动有限，后续持续关注宏观层面扰动。国内市场方面， | 弹 | | | 昨夜郑棉期价重心上移，中美元首通话，提振市场情绪。基本面来看，驱动仍相对 | | | | 有限。展望未来，在宏观层面传来利好情况下，预计短期郑棉期价重心仍将小幅上 | | | | 移，但空间如何需关注后续具体落实事宜。 | | | ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - On June 5, polysilicon and industrial silicon both showed a weak and volatile trend. The main polysilicon contract 2507 closed at 34,540 yuan/ton, with an intraday decline of 0.27%, and the position decreased by 2,071 lots to 65,802 lots. The SMM N-type polysilicon price was 36,500 yuan/ton, and the price of the lowest deliverable N-type polysilicon remained stable at 36,500 yuan/ton, with the spot premium over the main contract expanding to 1,960 yuan/ton. The main industrial silicon contract 2507 closed at 7,135 yuan/ton, with an intraday decline of 0.56%, and the position decreased by 3,637 lots to 184,000 lots. The Baichuan industrial silicon spot reference price was 8,777 yuan/ton, down 27 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The price of the lowest deliverable 553 silicon dropped to 7,600 yuan/ton, and the spot premium expanded to 460 yuan/ton [2]. - The reduction of electricity prices during the wet season in the southwest has led to the resumption of production, and large factories in the northwest will not cut production as in previous years. Downstream procurement has significantly decreased. It is expected that the lower support for industrial silicon comes from the cash cost line of large factories in Xinjiang, and the upper pressure stems from high inventory and increasing supply pressure. The polysilicon self - discipline meeting will be held again in June. In addition to spontaneous production cuts by enterprises, under the pressure of collapsing demand, the industry is expected to clarify an expanded production limit quota. For industrial silicon, a short - selling strategy on rallies can be maintained under marginal pressure. For polysilicon, pay attention to production cut news. The one - sided decline of near - month contracts is limited due to warehouse receipt restrictions, and fluctuations will intensify [2]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Data Monitoring - **Industrial Silicon**: The futures settlement price of the main and near - month contracts decreased by 35 yuan/ton to 7,140 yuan/ton. Among the 421 silicon spot prices, the prices in some regions such as the East China, Tianjin Port, and Xinjiang decreased by 50 - 100 yuan/ton, while most 553 silicon spot prices remained unchanged. The current lowest deliverable price was 7,600 yuan/ton, and the spot premium expanded by 35 yuan to 460 yuan/ton. The industrial silicon warehouse receipts decreased by 494 to 61,309, and the weekly inventory in various ports and factories decreased, with the total social inventory decreasing by 11,800 tons to 409,100 tons [3]. - **Polysilicon**: The futures settlement price of the main contract decreased by 515 yuan/ton to 34,540 yuan/ton, and the near - month contract decreased by 1,875 yuan/ton to 36,115 yuan/ton. The polysilicon spot prices remained stable, with the current lowest deliverable price at 36,500 yuan/ton, and the spot premium expanding by 515 yuan to 1,960 yuan/ton. The polysilicon warehouse receipts increased by 110 to 2,030. The weekly inventory in the GFE increased by 13,000 tons to 14,100 tons, the factory inventory decreased by 1,000 tons to 268,000 tons, and the total social inventory decreased by 1,000 tons to 268,000 tons [3]. - **Downstream**: The prices of silicon wafers (single - crystal M10/G12) and battery cells (single - crystal M10/G12) remained unchanged [3]. 2. Chart Analysis 2.1 Industrial Silicon and Cost - side Prices - Charts show the prices of different grades of industrial silicon, grade spreads, regional spreads, electricity prices, silica prices, and clean coal prices [4][5][7][10]. 2.2 Downstream Finished Product Prices - Charts display the prices of DMC, organic silicon finished products, polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components [13][14][17]. 2.3 Inventory - Charts present the industrial silicon futures inventory, factory inventory, weekly industry inventory, weekly inventory changes, DMC weekly inventory, and polysilicon weekly inventory [18][21]. 2.4 Cost - Profit - Charts show the average cost and profit levels of main production areas, weekly cost - profit of industrial silicon, profit of the aluminum alloy processing industry, DMC cost - profit, and polysilicon cost - profit [24][25][30]. 3. Team Introduction - The non - ferrous metals team includes Zhan Dapeng, the current director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, a senior precious metals researcher, and a gold intermediate investment analyst, with over a decade of commodity research experience. Wang Heng, a researcher focusing on aluminum and silicon, and Zhu Xi, a researcher focusing on lithium and nickel, are also members of the team [32][33].

农产品日报（2025 年 6 月 6 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周四，玉米 7 月合约减仓上行，期价在 40 日均线处获得支撑，当日以小阳线收 | | | | 盘。现货市场中，因产区余粮有限，玉米现货报价维持偏强表现。目前，东北产 | | | | 区余粮已相对较少，虽走货情况相对一般，但贸易商低价出货意向一般，报价维 | | | | 持在相对较高的水平。华北地区玉米继续震荡运行。山东深加工企业玉米价格有 | | | | 涨有跌，价格变化幅度在 10-20 元/吨。东北粮源继续补充华北市场，市场整体 | | | 玉米 | 供应量尚可。从市场心态来看，受期货价格下跌影响，玉米看涨预期减弱。销区 | 震荡 | | | 市场玉米价格整体稳定运行。港口贸易商报价暂时平稳，端午节后市场购销活跃 | | | | 度不高，新季小麦热度较高，部分下游饲料企业采购小麦拉长玉米头寸。技术上， | | | | 玉米 7 月合约在长短期均线粘合的支撑位企稳，期价短期呈现偏强表现，暂短线 | | | | 参与。 | | | | 周四，CBOT 大豆上涨，创一周以 ...