1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - On August 14, industrial silicon fluctuated weakly. The main contract 2511 closed at 8,675 yuan/ton, with an intraday decline of 1.14%. The open interest decreased by 5,465 lots to 279,000 lots. The spot reference price of industrial silicon from Baichuan was 9,540 yuan/ton, remaining stable compared to the previous trading day. The price of the lowest deliverable 421 grade rebounded to 8,950 yuan/ton, and the spot premium narrowed to 315 yuan/ton [2]. - Polysilicon also fluctuated weakly. The main contract 2511 closed at 50,430 yuan/ton, with an intraday decline of 3.08%. The open interest decreased by 4,706 lots to 128,000 lots. The price of N-type recycled polysilicon material rose to 47,000 yuan/ton, while the price of the lowest deliverable silicon material dropped to 44,500 yuan/ton. The spot discount narrowed to 5,270 yuan/ton [2]. - The north and south of China's industrial silicon production areas continued to resume production, and the downstream crystalline silicon production increased significantly. The supply and demand showed a pattern of double - growth, and in the short term, it continued to fluctuate following the sentiment of coal and coke [2]. - Recently, industrial silicon industry associations in multiple provinces put forward a joint initiative against "involution." In the short term, relevant news may become an important driver for the industrial silicon futures market [2]. - After the polysilicon futures market showed a premium again, it attracted an increase in warehouse receipts. The market was trading on a series of news such as capacity storage. In the short term, the range pattern of polysilicon with a clear upper and lower limit was relatively obvious [2]. - Attention should be paid to the resumption progress of industrial silicon production, the impact of the association's initiative, and the policy promotion of polysilicon [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Data Monitoring Industrial Silicon - Futures settlement price: The main contract decreased from 8,775 yuan/ton on August 13 to 8,695 yuan/ton on August 14, a decrease of 80 yuan/ton. The near - month contract increased from 8,575 yuan/ton to 8,635 yuan/ton, an increase of 60 yuan/ton [4]. - Spot prices of various grades remained stable, with no change in the prices of non - oxygenated 553 silicon, oxygenated 553 silicon, and 421 silicon in different regions [4]. - The current lowest deliverable price remained at 8,950 yuan/ton, and the spot premium decreased from 375 yuan/ton to 315 yuan/ton [4]. Polysilicon - Futures settlement price: The main contract decreased from 51,290 yuan/ton on August 13 to 50,430 yuan/ton on August 14, a decrease of 860 yuan/ton. The near - month contract decreased from 51,290 yuan/ton to 49,770 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,520 yuan/ton [4]. - Spot prices: The price of N - type polysilicon dense material increased from 44,000 yuan/ton to 46,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 2,000 yuan/ton. The price of N - type recycled polysilicon material increased from 45,500 yuan/ton to 47,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 1,500 yuan/ton. The price of N - type granular silicon material increased from 34,000 yuan/ton to 44,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 10,000 yuan/ton. The prices of P - type polysilicon dense material and P - type recycled polysilicon material remained unchanged [4]. - The current lowest deliverable price remained at 44,500 yuan/ton, and the spot discount narrowed from 6,790 yuan/ton to 5,270 yuan/ton [4]. Organic Silicon - Spot prices: The DMC price in the East China market decreased from 12,000 yuan/ton to 11,500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 500 yuan/ton. The prices of raw rubber, 107 glue decreased by 500 yuan/ton, while the price of dimethyl silicone oil increased by 1,800 yuan/ton [4]. Inventory - Industrial silicon: The daily industrial silicon warehouse receipts remained at 50,701. The weekly inventory of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange decreased by 880 tons to 251,700 tons. The weekly inventory at Huangpu Port remained at 55,000 tons, and the weekly inventory at Tianjin Port and Kunming Port remained unchanged. The industrial silicon factory inventory increased by 4,100 tons to 272,500 tons, and the total social inventory increased by 4,100 tons to 444,000 tons [4]. - Polysilicon: The daily polysilicon warehouse receipts remained at 5,150. The weekly inventory of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange increased by 13,000 tons to 108,600 tons. The weekly polysilicon factory inventory decreased by 2,000 tons to 273,400 tons, and the total social inventory decreased by 2,000 tons to 273,000 tons [4]. 3.2 Chart Analysis Industrial Silicon and Cost - end Prices Charts show prices of different grades of industrial silicon, grade spreads, regional spreads, electricity prices, silica prices, and refined coal prices [5][7][10]. Downstream Product Prices Charts present prices of DMC, organic silicon products, polysilicon, silicon wafers, solar cells, and solar modules [13][14][16]. Inventory Charts display industrial silicon futures inventory, factory inventory, weekly industry inventory, weekly inventory changes, DMC weekly inventory, and polysilicon weekly inventory [19][20][22]. Cost - profit Charts show average cost levels, average profit levels of main production areas, weekly cost - profit of industrial silicon, aluminum alloy processing industry profit, DMC cost - profit, and polysilicon cost - profit [25][27][32]. 3.3 Team Introduction - Zhan Dapeng, a master of science, is the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, a senior researcher in precious metals, a medium - level investment analyst in gold, an excellent metal analyst of the Shanghai Futures Exchange, and the best industrial product futures analyst of Futures Daily and Securities Times. He has more than ten years of experience in commodity research, serves many leading spot enterprises, and has published dozens of professional articles in public newspapers and magazines. His team has won awards such as the 15th and 16th Best Metal Industry Futures Research Team Awards of Futures Daily and Securities Times and the title of Excellent Non - ferrous Metal Industry Team of the Shanghai Futures Exchange in 2016 [34]. - Wang Heng, a master of finance from the University of Adelaide in Australia, is a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly focusing on aluminum and silicon research [34]. - Zhu Xi, a master of science from the University of Warwick in the UK, is a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly focusing on lithium and nickel research [35].

Research Views - Yesterday, the A-share market showed a volatile correction with increased trading volume. The Wind All A index dropped 0.86% with a trading volume of 2.3 trillion yuan. The CSI 1000 index fell 1.24%, the CSI 500 index declined 1.2%, the SSE 50 index rose 0.59%, and the SSE 300 index decreased 0.08%. The personal consumer loan discount policy has been implemented, and policies are further tilted towards promoting household consumption. The implementation of the parenting subsidy system is expected to directly increase the income level of residents. It is predicted that the central bank will purchase national debt to raise funds for the central government, and more inclusive fiscal support programs will be launched to stabilize and boost China's inflation environment [1]. - The recent rise in the stock market is mainly driven by three logics: long - term, the market anticipates more fiscal policies to promote consumption and an increase in domestic inflation after the easing of Sino - US relations, with foreign capital flowing in and usually buying large - cap growth stocks; medium - term, the anti - involution trend and infrastructure investment on the demand side benefit upstream cyclical sectors, and new funds have a long - lasting impact but may have limited influence on the upper limit of stock prices; short - term, the capital market has relatively abundant liquidity due to the appreciation of the RMB under the weak US dollar and the improvement of corporate deposit and loan data, which makes entity liquidity more likely to flow into the stock market. In terms of operation, the market is gradually tilting towards the long side, and a strategy of selling put options can be considered [1]. - For treasury bond futures, the 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year main contracts declined by 0.36%, 0.12%, 0.08%, and 0.02% respectively. The central bank conducted 128.7 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations with a stable interest rate of 1.4%. There were 160.7 billion yuan of reverse repurchase maturities in the open market, resulting in a net withdrawal of 3.2 billion yuan. The bond market showed a flat reaction after the release of weak July financial data as the market had already anticipated it. This week, the capital market is loose, but the strong stock market suppresses the bond market, which is running bearishly. In the short term, the bond market is under pressure due to the rise in risk appetite, but there are no significant changes in the capital and fundamental aspects, so it will mainly show a volatile trend [2]. Daily Price Changes - For stock index futures, IH rose 0.38%, IF fell 0.17%, IC dropped 1.11%, and IM declined 1.04%. For stock indices, the SSE 50 rose 0.59%, the SSE 300 fell 0.08%, the CSI 500 decreased 1.20%, and the CSI 1000 dropped 1.24%. For treasury bond futures, TS fell 0.02%, TF declined 0.08%, T dropped 0.10%, and TL decreased 0.33%. For treasury bond yields, the yields of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bonds increased [3]. Market News - After the release of stronger - than - expected US PPI data, traders lowered their expectations for the Fed's interest rate cut. The probability of a Fed rate cut at the September meeting is 90%, while the market fully anticipated this scenario a day ago [4]. Chart Analysis Stock Index Futures - The section includes charts of the trends of IH, IF, IM, and IC main contracts, as well as the current - month basis trends of IH, IF, IC, and IM [6][7][9][10]. Treasury Bond Futures - The section contains charts of the trends of treasury bond futures main contracts, treasury bond spot yields, the basis of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures, the inter - period spreads of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures, cross - variety spreads, and capital interest rates [13][16][17][18]. Exchange Rates - The section presents charts of the central parity rates of the US dollar, euro against the RMB, forward US dollar to RMB (1M and 3M), forward euro to RMB (1M and 3M), the US dollar index, euro to US dollar, pound to US dollar, and US dollar to Japanese yen [21][22][23][25][26].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - All commodities in the report are rated as "volatile" [1][2][4][5][6] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The crude oil market is affected by factors such as the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations, the "Trump - Putin Summit", and the market is in a state of waiting for further guidance with an increase in risk - aversion sentiment. The oil price has rebounded from a low level, but the final outcome of the talks needs to be monitored [1]. - The fuel oil market is under pressure due to sufficient supply and falling spot premiums. The high - sulfur fuel oil's summer power - generation demand is waning, and the upward space for both high - and low - sulfur fuel oils is not optimistic [2]. - The asphalt market is expected to show a pattern of increasing supply and demand in August. In the short term, the price will likely fluctuate within a range due to the lack of a clear one - sided driver [2][4]. - The polyester market is affected by the decline in crude oil prices. With the recovery of supply and demand, the polyester chain follows the decline in the cost - end crude oil price [4]. - The methanol market has a situation where the Iranian device load has recovered to a high point, the port inventory has increased rapidly, suppressing the near - month price. However, the main contract will switch to January, and the subsequent winter port destocking will limit the downward space, maintaining a near - weak and far - strong structure with narrow - range price fluctuations [5]. - The polyolefin market is approaching the peak demand season of "Golden September and Silver October". The supply will remain at a high level after the end of the maintenance season, and the demand is expected to increase. The overall upward space is limited, and the price is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range [5]. - The PVC market has high - level supply fluctuations and gradually recovering demand. The supply - demand gap is narrowing, and the inventory is expected to decline slowly. The price is expected to fluctuate weakly [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Thursday, oil prices rose. The WTI September contract closed up $1.31 to $63.96 per barrel, a 2.09% increase; the Brent October contract closed up $1.21 to $66.84 per barrel, a 1.84% increase; SC2509 closed at 488.2 yuan per barrel, up 4.6 yuan per barrel, a 0.95% increase. The Fed's interest - rate cut expectations may boost market demand. The "Trump - Putin Summit" is about to take place, and the market is waiting for the outcome. The oil price has rebounded from a low level, and the overall view is "volatile" [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: On Thursday, the main fuel oil contract FU2509 on the SHFE closed down 1.03% at 2700 yuan per ton; the low - sulfur fuel oil main contract LU2510 closed down 0.23% at 3449 yuan per ton. Singapore's on - land fuel oil inventory decreased, and the spot premium of low - sulfur fuel oil in Singapore fell to a four - month low. The overall view is "volatile" [2]. - **Asphalt**: On Thursday, the main asphalt contract BU2509 on the SHFE closed down 0.4% at 3510 yuan per ton. This week, the sample shipment volume of 54 domestic asphalt enterprises decreased, and the capacity utilization rate of 69 sample modified asphalt enterprises increased. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is expected to recover, with the price expected to fluctuate within a range. The view is "volatile" [2][4]. - **Polyester**: TA509 closed down 0.55% at 4666 yuan per ton; EG2509 closed down 0.89% at 4367 yuan per ton. Some MEG devices are shut down, and some polyester devices are restarted. The overall view is "volatile" [4]. - **Methanol**: The Iranian device load has recovered to a high point, the port inventory has increased rapidly, suppressing the near - month price. The main contract will switch to January, and the price is expected to maintain a near - weak and far - strong structure with narrow - range fluctuations. The view is "volatile" [5]. - **Polyolefin**: The maintenance season is coming to an end, and the supply will remain high. With the approaching of the peak demand season, the demand is expected to increase. The price is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range. The view is "volatile" [5]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC)**: The supply remains at a high - level fluctuation, the demand is gradually recovering, and the price is expected to fluctuate weakly. The view is "volatile" [6]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the base - price data of multiple energy - chemical varieties on August 15, 2025, including spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, and their changes and historical quantiles [7]. 3.3 Market News - The Russian government is considering extending the full ban on gasoline exports until September [9]. - South Korea did not import Iranian crude oil in July this year and last year, and its crude oil imports in July this year were 11.3 million tons, slightly higher than the same period last year [9]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: The report presents the closing - price charts of the main contracts of various energy - chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, LPG, PTA, ethylene glycol, etc. [11][13][15][17][19][21][24] - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: It shows the basis charts of various products such as crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, etc. from 2021 to 2025 [25][27][31][32][33][37] - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: The report provides the spread charts of different contracts of fuel oil, asphalt, PTA, ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, natural rubber, etc. [39][41][44][47][50][51][54] - **4.4 Inter - variety Spreads**: It includes the spread charts of different varieties such as crude oil's internal - external market, B - W spread, fuel oil's high - low sulfur spread, BU/SC ratio, ethylene glycol - PTA spread, etc. [56][60][58] - **4.5 Production Profits**: The report shows the production - profit charts of ethylene - based ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, etc. [64][66] 3.5 Team Member Introduction - The research team members include Zhong Meiyan, Du Bingqin, Di Yilin, and Peng Haibo, each with their own professional fields and rich experience and honors [69][70][71][72] 3.6 Contact Information - The company's address is Unit 703, 6th Floor, No. 729 Yanggao South Road, China (Shanghai) Pilot Free Trade Zone. The company phone is 021 - 80212222, the fax is 021 - 80212200, the customer service hotline is 400 - 700 - 7979, and the postal code is 200127 [74]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Cotton: The 01 contract of cotton may face the pressure of expected high - yield new cotton and low opening price, but the domestic cotton supply - demand pattern in the 2025/26 season has no major contradictions. With the current cotton price at a relatively low level and limited downward drivers, in the medium - to - long - term, after the market digests the pressure of new cotton listing and along with the macro - economic improvement, the price will oscillate upwards [1]. - Sugar: The short - term sugar futures price may be boosted by the strengthening of raw sugar, but the fundamental driving force is not strong, and the sustainability of the price rebound depends on the external market [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Research Views - Cotton: On Tuesday, ICE US cotton rose 2.52% to 68.44 cents per pound, and CF601 rose 0.79% to 13,980 yuan per ton. The position of the main contract increased by 31,124 lots to 413,000 lots. The cotton arrival price in Xinjiang was 15,052 yuan per ton, up 5 yuan per ton from the previous day, and the China Cotton Price Index for Grade 3128B was 15,177 yuan per ton, up 16 yuan per ton. In the international market, the US CPI annual rate was lower than expected, increasing the expectation of a September interest rate cut. In the domestic market, the main contract switched to the 01 contract, and the position gradually increased. Besides the macro - factors, weather and demand should also be focused on [1]. - Sugar: In August 2024, Brazil's sugar export volume was 3.9208 million tons, with a daily average export volume of 178,200 tons. In the first week of August 2025, Brazil exported 1.094 million tons of sugar and molasses, with a daily average export volume of 182,300 tons. The spot price of sugar in different regions had some adjustments. Raw sugar rebounded for three consecutive days, boosting the market sentiment [1]. Daily Data Monitoring - Cotton: The 9 - 1 contract spread was - 245 yuan, down 45 yuan; the main contract basis was 1,197 yuan, down 84 yuan. The spot price in Xinjiang was 15,052 yuan per ton, up 5 yuan, and the national spot price was 15,177 yuan per ton, up 16 yuan [2]. - Sugar: The 9 - 1 contract spread was 101 yuan, down 5 yuan; the main contract basis was 362 yuan, down 35 yuan. The spot price in Nanning was 5,960 yuan per ton, unchanged, and in Liuzhou was 5,970 yuan per ton, unchanged [2]. Market Information - Cotton: On August 12, the number of cotton futures warehouse receipts was 8,087, down 85 from the previous day, with 282 valid forecasts. The cotton arrival prices in different domestic regions were reported. The yarn comprehensive load was 49.3, unchanged; the yarn comprehensive inventory was 29.5, down 0.2; the short - fiber cloth comprehensive load was 48.3, up 0.2; the short - fiber cloth comprehensive inventory was 33.4, down 0.3 [3]. - Sugar: On August 12, the spot price of sugar in Nanning and Liuzhou remained unchanged. The number of sugar futures warehouse receipts was 17,853, down 387 from the previous day, with 0 valid forecasts [3][4]. Chart Analysis - Multiple charts were presented, including those related to cotton (such as the closing price, basis, 9 - 1 spread, 1% tariff quota internal - external spread, warehouse receipts and valid forecasts, and China Cotton Price Index) and sugar (such as the closing price, basis, 9 - 1 spread, and warehouse receipts and valid forecasts) [6][9][11][14][17]. Research Team Personnel Introduction - Zhang Xiaojin, the director of resource product research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, focuses on the sugar industry and has won many awards [19]. - Zhang Linglu, an analyst at Everbright Futures Research Institute, is responsible for research on futures varieties such as urea and soda - ash glass and has also won many honors [20]. - Sun Chengzhen, an analyst at Everbright Futures Research Institute, is engaged in fundamental research and data analysis of varieties such as cotton and has won relevant titles [21].

黑色商品日报 | | 于去年同期水平。库存端，样本钢厂锰硅需求量当周值持续下降，位于近年来同期中位水平。综合来看， | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 当前基本面上行驱动有限，关注市场情绪变化，预计短期维持震荡略偏强走势。 | | | | 硅铁：周二，硅铁期价震荡走强，主力合约报收 5820 元/吨，环比上涨 0.21%，主力合约持仓环比下降 10459 | | | | 手至 10.76 万手。各地区硅铁汇总价格约 5400-5500 元/吨，较前一日基本持平。昨日黑色板块整体走势 | | | | 偏强，焦煤领涨，合金涨幅靠后，硅铁期价重心小幅上移。近期硅铁基本面无较大变化，钢招持续进行中， | | | | 近期定价多在 6020-6070 元/吨，关注主流钢招定价情况。供应端，内蒙、宁夏具有一定生产利润情况下， | | | 硅铁 | 硅铁月产量及周产量均环比增加，短期难有减量。库存端，硅铁样本企业库存连续两周环比增加，处于近 | 震荡偏强 | | | 年来同期高位水平。成本端，依据铁合金在线，截止上周末，宁夏地区硅铁生产成本约 5326 元/吨，周环 | | | | 比增加 1623 元 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - All the varieties in the report are rated as "Oscillation", including crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, polyester, rubber, methanol, polyolefin, and polyvinyl chloride [1][3] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The oil price lacks obvious driving force and moves towards the path of least resistance. The market is waiting for the meeting between Russian President Putin and US President Trump. The overall oil price shows an oscillatory trend [1] - For fuel oil, the supply is sufficient, and the subsequent upward space for high - and low - sulfur fuel oil is not optimistic. Attention should be paid to the possible fluctuations of oil prices under the unstable geopolitical situation [3] - The asphalt market in August is expected to gradually show a pattern of increasing supply and demand, with prices oscillating in a range, and attention should be paid to oil price fluctuations [3] - The polyester market is expected to have short - term oscillatory prices for PTA and strong low - level support for ethylene glycol, and attention should be paid to device changes [4] - The short - term rubber price is expected to be strongly oscillatory, while the medium - and long - term situation needs further attention to factors such as production during the peak season and anti - dumping investigations [6] - Methanol is expected to maintain a near - weak and far - strong structure with narrow - range price oscillation [6] - Polyolefin will gradually transition to a situation of strong supply and demand, with limited upward space and narrow - range price oscillation [8] - The PVC price is expected to oscillate weakly, with supply remaining high and demand gradually recovering [8] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Tuesday, oil prices fell again. OPEC raised the forecast for global oil demand next year and lowered the forecast for supply growth in the US and other non - OPEC countries. However, OPEC+ production increased in July. The EIA report shows that US oil production will reach a record high in 2025 but may decline in 2026. API data shows changes in US oil inventories. The oil price is oscillatory [1] - **Fuel Oil**: On Tuesday, the main fuel oil contracts showed different trends. The supply of fuel oil is sufficient, and the upward space for high - and low - sulfur fuel oil is not optimistic, with an oscillatory trend [3] - **Asphalt**: On Tuesday, the main asphalt contract rose. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is expected to recover with the improvement of weather. The price is expected to oscillate in a range [3] - **Polyester**: On Tuesday, polyester contracts showed different trends. The supply of PTA and ethylene glycol is recovering, and the prices are expected to oscillate, with attention to device changes [4] - **Rubber**: On Tuesday, rubber contracts rose. The short - term rubber price is strongly oscillatory, while the medium - and long - term situation needs further attention [6] - **Methanol**: On Tuesday, methanol showed certain price characteristics. The Iranian device load has recovered, and the port inventory has increased, but the downward space is limited, with a near - weak and far - strong structure and narrow - range oscillation [6] - **Polyolefin**: On Tuesday, polyolefin showed certain price and profit characteristics. The supply will remain high after the end of the maintenance season, and the demand is expected to increase. The price is expected to oscillate in a narrow range [8] - **Polyvinyl Chloride**: On Tuesday, the PVC market price showed different trends in different regions. The supply is high, the demand is recovering, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly [8] 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the basis price data of various energy - chemical varieties on August 12 and 13, 2025, including spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, and their changes, as well as the quantile of the latest basis rate in historical data [9] 3.3 Market News - OPEC raised the forecast for global oil demand next year and lowered the forecast for supply growth in the US and other non - OPEC countries. In July, OPEC+ production increased, and Saudi Arabia's market supply and reported production showed different trends [11] - The EIA report shows that due to the improvement of well productivity, US oil production will reach a record high in 2025, but oil price decline will lead to a decrease in production in 2026 [11] 3.4 Chart Analysis 3.4.1 Main Contract Prices - The report presents the closing price charts of main contracts for multiple energy - chemical varieties from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, LPG, PTA, ethylene glycol, etc. [13][14][15] 3.4.2 Main Contract Basis - The report shows the basis charts of main contracts for multiple energy - chemical varieties from 2021 to 2025, such as crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, etc. [32][33][36] 3.4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads - The report provides the spread charts of inter - period contracts for multiple energy - chemical varieties, including fuel oil, asphalt, PTA, ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, and natural rubber [47][48][52] 3.4.4 Inter - variety Spreads - The report shows the spread charts of inter - variety contracts for multiple energy - chemical varieties, such as crude oil internal and external markets, fuel oil high - and low - sulfur, BU/SC, ethylene glycol - PTA, etc. [62][63][67] 3.4.5 Production Profits - The report presents the production profit charts for multiple energy - chemical varieties, including ethylene - based ethylene glycol, PP, and LLDPE [71][73][76] 3.5 Team Member Introduction - The report introduces the members of the light - period energy - chemical research team, including the assistant director and energy - chemical director Zhong Meiyan, the crude oil and other analysts Du Bingqin, the natural rubber/polyester analyst Di Yilin, and the methanol/PE/PP/PVC analyst Peng Haibo, along with their educational backgrounds, honors, and professional experiences [78][79][80]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Copper: Overnight copper fluctuated higher. US inflation pressure is controllable, strengthening the expectation of a 50 - basis - point interest rate cut in September. There are differences in views on the future of US copper. The domestic "Golden September" peak - season expectation and anti - involution policy expectations support prices, and copper maintains a relative balance between bulls and bears [1]. - Aluminum: Alumina, Shanghai aluminum, and aluminum alloy all fluctuated strongly. In August, the profit in the aluminum industry shifted from upstream to downstream. There are signs of a turn in the supply - demand of electrolytic aluminum, and the aluminum price is in a stage of trading time for space with an expectation of continued recovery. Aluminum alloy is in a tug - of - war between cost and demand, waiting for the peak - season guidance [1][2]. - Nickel: Overnight LME nickel and Shanghai nickel both rose. The overall fundamentals changed little and showed a volatile operation [2]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Research Views - **Copper**: The US 7 - month CPI rose 2.7% year - on - year, core CPI reached 3.1%. The market has different views on US copper due to over - inventory. Domestic factors support prices, and copper is in a balanced state [1]. - **Aluminum**: AO2509 closed at 3287 yuan/ton with a 0.83% increase, AL2509 at 20800 yuan/ton with a 0.68% increase, and AD2511 at 20200 yuan/ton with a 0.55% increase. The SMM alumina price dropped to 3248 yuan/ton. There are changes in the supply - demand and profit distribution of the aluminum industry [1][2]. - **Nickel**: LME nickel rose 0.23% to 15360 dollars/ton, Shanghai nickel rose 0.2% to 122870 yuan/ton. LME inventory increased by 450 tons, and domestic SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 30 tons. The overall fundamentals are stable [2]. 2. Daily Data Monitoring - **Aluminum**: The spot premium changed from - 50 yuan/ton to - 30 yuan/ton. The total inventory decreased by 3913 tons, and the alumina inventory increased by 3.9 tons [5]. - **Nickel**: The price of Jinchuan nickel increased by 600 yuan/ton. The total nickel inventory increased by 444 tons, and the stainless - steel warehouse receipts decreased by 253 tons [5]. - **Zinc**: The main settlement price decreased by 0.1%, and the social inventory increased by 0.77 tons [6]. - **Tin**: The main settlement price increased by 0.9%, and the LME0 - 3 premium increased by 22.16 dollars/ton [6]. 3. Chart Analysis - **Spot Premium**: Charts show the historical trends of spot premiums for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin [8][10][13]. - **SHFE Near - Far Month Spread**: Charts display the historical trends of near - far month spreads for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin [16][20][21]. - **LME Inventory**: Charts present the historical trends of LME inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin [23][25][27]. - **SHFE Inventory**: Charts show the historical trends of SHFE inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin [30][32][34]. - **Social Inventory**: Charts display the historical trends of social inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series stainless steel [36][38][40]. - **Smelting Profit**: Charts present the historical trends of the copper concentrate index, rough copper processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless - steel 304 smelting profit rate [43][45][47]. Group 4: Team Introduction - Zhan Dapeng: The current director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with over a decade of commodity research experience [50]. - Wang Heng: An analyst focusing on aluminum and silicon, providing timely policy interpretations and writing in - depth reports [50]. - Zhu Xi: An analyst focusing on lithium and nickel, focusing on the integration of non - ferrous metals and new energy [51].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The stock market has been rising recently due to three logics: long - term, the market anticipates more fiscal policies to promote consumption and an increase in domestic inflation after the easing of Sino - US relations, with foreign capital flowing in and usually buying large - cap growth stocks; medium - term, the anti - involution trend is strong, and infrastructure investment on the demand side benefits upstream cyclical sectors; short - term, capital inflows due to RMB appreciation under a weak US dollar and improved corporate deposit and loan data lead to more entity liquidity flowing into the stock market. For stock index futures, a strategy of selling put options can be considered [1]. - For treasury bond futures, the bond market is under pressure due to the strong stock market this week. In the short term, the bond market is lack of directional drive and will mainly fluctuate, although the expected weak credit data in July may provide some support [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Research Views Stock Index Futures - Yesterday, the A - share market continued to rise with increased trading volume. The Wind All - A index rose 0.34% with a trading volume of 1.91 trillion yuan. The CSI 1000, CSI 500, SSE 50, and SSE 300 indices also had varying degrees of increase. The implementation of the parenting subsidy system is expected to be an important path to stabilize and increase inflation. The long - term, medium - term, and short - term logics for the recent stock market rise are analyzed, and a selling put options strategy is recommended [1]. Treasury Bond Futures - The 30 - year, 10 - year, 2 - year, and 5 - year treasury bond futures contracts showed different trends. The central bank conducted 1146 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 461 billion yuan. The bond market is under pressure from the strong stock market and will mainly fluctuate in the short term [2]. Daily Price Changes - For stock index futures, IH, IF, IC, and IM all rose, with increases of 0.72%, 0.64%, 0.70%, and 0.47% respectively. For stock indices, the SSE 50, SSE 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 also increased. For treasury bond futures, TS, TF, T, and TL had different degrees of decline [3]. Market News - On August 11, local time, US President Trump signed an executive order to extend the tariff suspension measures on China for another 90 days [4]. Chart Analysis Stock Index Futures - Charts show the trends of IH, IF, IM, IC main contracts, and the basis trends of various stock indices [6][7][9][10][11]. Treasury Bond Futures - Charts present the trends of treasury bond futures main contracts, treasury bond spot yields, basis, inter - period spreads, cross - variety spreads, and capital interest rates [13][16][17][18]. Exchange Rates - Charts display the trends of the US dollar to RMB central parity rate, euro to RMB central parity rate, forward US dollar to RMB, forward euro to RMB, US dollar index, euro to US dollar, British pound to US dollar, and US dollar to Japanese yen [21][22][23][25][26].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The report presents the index trends, sector - related impacts on indices, and data on futures basis, cost, and points differentials for various indices on August 12th. 3. Summary of Each Section Index Trends - On August 12th, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.5% to 3665.92 points with a trading volume of 778.161 billion yuan; the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.53% to 11351.63 points with a trading volume of 1103.359 billion yuan [1]. - The CSI 1000 Index rose 0.28% with a trading volume of 409.923 billion yuan; the CSI 500 Index rose 0.41% with a trading volume of 290.495 billion yuan; the SSE 50 Index rose 0.61% with a trading volume of 109.688 billion yuan; the CSI 300 Index rose 0.52% with a trading volume of 383.088 billion yuan [1]. Impact of Sector Movements on Indices - The CSI 1000 rose 19.67 points, with sectors like electronics, communication, and non - bank finance pulling the index up, and non - ferrous metals pulling it down [2]. - The CSI 500 rose 26.4 points, with electronics, machinery, and non - bank finance pulling it up, and non - ferrous metals and national defense and military industry pulling it down [2]. - The CSI 300 rose 21.32 points, with electronics, communication, and non - bank finance pulling it up [2]. - The SSE 50 rose 17.11 points, with electronics, banks, and non - bank finance pulling it up, and food and beverage pulling it down [2]. Futures Basis and Annualized Opening Costs - For IM contracts, IM00 had an average daily basis of - 5.26, IM01 of - 76.54, IM02 of - 264.55, and IM03 of - 446.98 [13]. - For IC contracts, IC00 had an average daily basis of - 8.04, IC01 of - 74.4, IC02 of - 229.64, and IC03 of - 365.56 [13]. - For IF contracts, IF00 had an average daily basis of - 1.26, IF01 of - 13.73, IF02 of - 42.76, and IF03 of - 74.94 [13]. - For IH contracts, IH00 had an average daily basis of - 0.03, IH01 of 0.34, IH02 of 0.66, and IH03 of 0.06 [13]. Futures Roll - over Point Differences and Annualized Costs - Detailed data on the roll - over point differences and their annualized costs for IM, IC, IF, and IH contracts are provided at different time points from 09:45 to 15:00 [23][24][25][26].

Research Views Overall Opinions - Corn is expected to fluctuate. The September contract continued to fluctuate on Tuesday, with the forward contract prices showing strength. The 2603 contract led the increase, and the prices stabilized and rebounded. Northeast corn prices were slightly weak, while those in North China remained stable with limited adjustments. The prices in the sales areas were generally stable, with a slight rebound in some ports. Technically, the corn futures prices are in a consolidation period after a short - term rapid decline [1]. - Soybean meal is expected to rise. The CBOT soybeans rose on Tuesday due to the bullish supply - demand report. The USDA August supply - demand report adjusted down the global sunflower seed production, U.S. soybean planting area, and global oilseed production. In China, concerns about fourth - quarter supply, the result of the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed, and higher import costs all pushed up the protein meal futures prices. The strategy is a long - only mindset and month - to - month positive spread participation [1]. - Oils are expected to rise. The BMD palm oil rose on Tuesday due to favorable export data. The estimated export volume of Malaysian palm oil from August 1 - 10 increased by 65.25% compared to the same period last month. The MPOB report showed that the palm oil inventory was lower than expected. In China, the three major oils were strong, and the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed also had a positive impact on the market. The strategy is to hold long positions and sell put options [1]. - Eggs are expected to fluctuate weakly. The main 2509 contract of eggs stopped falling and rebounded on Tuesday. The terminal digestion was stable, and most traders purchased as needed. The egg prices in most sales areas were stable. In the short term, the fundamentals remained weak due to high chicken inventory and weak demand. In the future, there may be a seasonal rebound in egg prices, but the high is likely to be lower than last year. It is recommended to stop losses on previous short positions and wait and see [1][2]. - Pigs are expected to fluctuate. The main 2511 contract of pig futures fluctuated upward on Tuesday and then declined slightly at the end of the session. The spot price of pigs decreased slightly. After continuous price cuts, the breeding side showed resistance to price cuts, but due to weak demand, prices in many northern regions decreased, leading to a slight decline in the national average price. In the future, as the weather cools down, demand is expected to recover, which will support pig prices [2]. Specific Data and Events - The USDA August supply - demand report adjusted down the 2025/26 global sunflower seed production by 1.2 million tons to 55.1 million tons, the U.S. soybean planting area by 2.5 million acres, and the global oilseed production by 3.3 million tons to 690.1 million tons. The U.S. soybean single - yield was adjusted up by 1.1 bushels per acre to 53.6 bushels per acre, the export volume was adjusted down by 40 million bushels, and the ending inventory was adjusted down by 20 million bushels to 290 million bushels [1]. - The preliminary result of China's anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed showed that there was an anti - dumping nature, and a 75.8% margin needed to be levied, which would limit the import of Canadian rapeseed [1]. - The estimated export volume of Malaysian palm oil from August 1 - 10 was 339,143 tons, a 65.25% increase compared to the same period last month. The MPOB report showed that the Malaysian palm oil inventory was 2.11 million tons, lower than the market expectation of 2.25 million tons [1]. Market Information - Since August 12, 2025, at 12:01, the additional tariff measures on U.S. imports have been adjusted. The 24% additional tariff rate on U.S. imports will continue to be suspended for 90 days, while the 10% additional tariff rate will be retained [3]. - The preliminary result of the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed showed that there was an anti - dumping nature, and starting from August 14, 2025, importers need to pay a 75.8% margin when importing Canadian rapeseed [3]. - The USDA August supply - demand report showed that the expected U.S. soybean production in 2025/2026 was 4.292 billion bushels, the ending inventory was 290 million bushels, and the single - yield was 53.6 bushels per acre, all different from market expectations [4]. Variety Spreads Contract Spreads - The report presents contract spread charts for various agricultural products, including corn 9 - 1, corn starch 9 - 1, soybean 9 - 1, soybean meal 9 - 1, soybean oil 9 - 1, palm oil 9 - 1, egg 9 - 1, and pig 9 - 1 [6][8][9][12]. Contract Basis - The report presents contract basis charts for various agricultural products, including corn, corn starch, soybean, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, egg, and pig [14][18][24][26]. Research Team Members - Wang Na is the director of the agricultural product research at Everbright Futures Research Institute. She has won the "Best Agricultural Product Analyst" title multiple times and has rich experience in leading research teams [28]. - Hou Xueling is a soybean analyst at Everbright Futures. She has also won the "Best Agricultural Product Analyst" title and has published many articles in industry journals [28]. - Kong Hailan is a researcher for eggs and pigs at Everbright Futures. She has participated in many research projects and has been interviewed by mainstream media [28].