股指期货日度数据跟踪 2025-12-03 12 月 02 日，上证综指涨跌幅-0.42%，收于 3897.71 点，成交额 6274.41 亿元，深成指数涨跌幅-0.68%，收于 13056.7 点，成交额 9659.9 亿元。 中证 1000 指数涨跌幅-1.0%，成交额 3202.19 亿元，其中开盘价 7364.2，收盘价 7313.18，当日最高价 7364.2，最低价 7299.27； 中证 500 指数涨跌幅-0.87%，成交额 2473.6 亿元，其中开盘价 7084.8，收盘价 7040.3，当日最高价 7085.3，最低价 7022.61； 沪深 300 指数涨跌幅-0.48%，成交额 3643.66 亿元，其中开盘价 4571.91，收盘价 4554.33，当日最高价 4575.49，最低价 4539.43； 上证 50 指数涨跌幅-0.51%，成交额 791.66 亿元，其中开盘价 2992.38，收盘价 2978.47，当日最高价 2994.71，最低价 2970.95。 数据来源：Wind，光期研究所 数据来源：Wind，光期研究所 二、板块涨跌对指数影响 中证 1000 较前收盘 ...

黑色商品日报 黑色商品日报（2025 年 12 月 3 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 钢材 | 螺纹钢：昨天螺纹盘面窄幅波动，截止日盘螺纹 2601 合约收盘价格为 3133 元/吨，较上一交易收盘价格 下跌 1 元/吨，跌幅为 0.03%，持仓减少 10.2 万手。现货价格基本平稳，成交回落，唐山地区迁安普方坯 | 窄幅整理 | | | 价格持平于 2990 元/吨，杭州市场中天螺纹价格持平于 3230 元/吨，全国建材成交量 9.82 万吨。近期部分 | | | | 地区工程赶工，螺纹需求仍维持一定韧性，在产量下降的情况下螺纹库存已连续七周下降，库存总量矛盾 | | | | 得到明显缓解，部分地区出现规格短缺的现象，对价格走势形成一定支撑。而年末市场对稳地产政策预期 | | | | 也有所升温，对市场情绪有一定提振。不过当前市场已处于消费淡季，后期需求将面临 2 个月左右的下降 | | | | 周期，需求对价格的驱动依然不足。预计短期螺纹盘面仍窄幅整理运行为主。 | | | 铁矿石 | 昨日铁矿石期货主力合约 i2601 价格冲高回落，收 ...

光期研究 光期黑色：铁矿石基差及价差监测日报 2025 年 1 2 月 3 日 1 光大证券 2020 年 半 年 度 业 绩 E V E R B R I G H T S E C U R I T I E S 1.1 合约价差 | 期货合约 | 今日收盘价 | 上日收盘价 | 变化 | 合约价差 | 今日价差 | 上日价差 | 变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | I05 | 775.5 | 777.5 | -2.0 | I05-I09 | 24.0 | 25.0 | -1.0 | | I09 | 751.5 | 752.5 | -1.0 | I09-I01 | -49.0 | -48.5 | -0.5 | | I01 | 800.5 | 801.0 | -0.5 | I01-I05 | 25.0 | 23.5 | 1.5 | 图表1：05-09合约价差（单位：元/吨） 图表2：01-05合约价差（单位：元/吨） p 2 -100 -50 0 50 100 150 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 01 2101-2105 ...

1. Research Views - Yesterday, the main contract of lithium carbonate futures, the 2605 contract, dropped 0.72% to 96,560 yuan/ton. The average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate rose 50 yuan/ton to 94,400 yuan/ton, the average price of industrial-grade lithium carbonate rose 50 yuan/ton to 91,950 yuan/ton, and the price of battery-grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) rose 100 yuan/ton to 82,580 yuan/ton. The warehouse receipt inventory increased by 770 tons to 8,992 tons [3]. - In terms of news, the change registration (including renewal) of the non - oil and gas mining right for the lithium ore in Zhenkouli, Yifeng County, Jiangxi Province - Jianxiawo, Fengxin County has entered the acceptance stage [3]. - On the supply side, the weekly output decreased by 265 tons to 21,865 tons. Among them, the output of lithium extracted from spodumene increased by 20 tons to 13,364 tons, the output of lithium from lepidolite increased by 50 tons to 3,021 tons, the output of lithium from salt lakes decreased by 400 tons to 3,225 tons, and the output of lithium from recycled materials increased by 65 tons to 2,245 tons. According to SMM data, the supply in December is expected to increase by 3% to 98,000 tons. On the demand side, the weekly output of ternary materials increased by 259 tons to 19,261 tons, and the inventory increased by 71 tons to 19,361 tons; the output of lithium iron phosphate increased by 4,690 tons to 95,713 tons, and the inventory increased by 1,757 tons to 104,341 tons. According to SMM data, the output of ternary materials in December is expected to decline by 7% to 78,280 tons, and the output of lithium iron phosphate is expected to decline by 1% to 409,550 tons. On the inventory side, the weekly inventory decreased by 2,452 tons to 115,968 tons, with downstream inventory decreasing by 2,452 tons to 41,984 tons, inventory in other links increasing by 1,780 tons to 49,660 tons, and upstream inventory decreasing by 1,780 tons to 24,324 tons [3]. - From the perspective of weekly data, the decrease in supply and increase in demand led to the decline of the total inventory turnover days to 26.3 days. However, from the perspective of future market trends, considering the resumption of production expectations and the preliminary downstream production scheduling data, the fundamental situation may show an increase in supply and a decrease in demand, leading to a slowdown in the de - stocking speed or inventory accumulation, and the marginal weakening of positive factors. Therefore, there is a relatively large risk in chasing up the current price. Affected by centralized cancellations, the warehouse receipt inventory decreased significantly on November 28, and attention should be paid to the return situation [3]. 2. Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides price data of various products in the lithium - battery industry chain on December 2, 2025, and December 1, 2025, including futures prices, lithium ore prices, lithium and lithium salt prices, price spreads, precursor and cathode material prices, and battery prices [5]. 3. Chart Analysis 3.1 Ore Prices - The report shows the price trends of spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF), lepidolite (1.5% - 2.0%), lepidolite (2.0% - 2.5%), and amblygonite (6% - 7%, 7% - 8%) from 2024 to 2025 [6][8]. 3.2 Lithium and Lithium Salt Prices - The price trends of metal lithium, battery - grade lithium carbonate, industrial - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade lithium hydroxide, industrial - grade lithium hydroxide, and lithium hexafluorophosphate from 2024 to 2025 are presented [10][13]. 3.3 Price Spreads - The report shows the price spreads such as the difference between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate, the difference between battery - grade lithium carbonate and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, and the difference between CIF Japan - South Korea battery - grade lithium hydroxide and SMM battery - grade lithium hydroxide from 2024 to 2025 [16][17]. 3.4 Precursor & Cathode Materials - The price trends of ternary precursors, ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, lithium manganate, and lithium cobaltate from 2024 to 2025 are presented [23][26]. 3.5 Lithium Battery Prices - The price trends of 523 square ternary cells, square lithium iron phosphate cells, lithium cobaltate cells, and square lithium iron phosphate batteries from 2024 to 2025 are shown [30][32]. 3.6 Inventory - The inventory trends of downstream, smelters, and other links from April 10, 2025, to November 27, 2025, are presented [36][38]. 3.7 Production Costs - The production profit trends of lithium carbonate from different raw materials such as purchased ternary pole piece black powder, purchased lithium iron phosphate pole piece black powder, purchased lepidolite concentrate, and purchased spodumene concentrate from 2024 to 2025 are shown [40][41]. 4. Research Team Members - Zhan Dapeng, a science master, is the current director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, a senior precious metals researcher, a gold intermediate investment analyst, an outstanding metal analyst of the Shanghai Futures Exchange, and the best industrial product futures analyst of Futures Daily & Securities Times. He has more than a decade of commodity research experience, serves many leading spot enterprises, and has published dozens of professional articles in public newspapers and magazines. He has long been interviewed by multiple media such as Futures Daily, China Securities Journal, Shanghai Securities News, Securities Times, First Financial, and China Times. His team has won the awards of the 16th and 15th Best Metal Industry Futures Research Teams of Futures Daily & Securities Times and the title of the Outstanding Non - ferrous Metal Industry Team of the Shanghai Futures Exchange in 2016 [44]. - Wang Heng, a master of finance from the University of Adelaide, Australia, is a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly researching aluminum and silicon. He is rooted in the domestic non - ferrous industry research, tracks the dynamics of the new energy industry chain, provides timely hot - spot and policy interpretations for customers, and has written many in - depth reports, which have been highly recognized by customers. He has also conducted in - depth research on hedging accounting and hedging information disclosure to better serve the risk management of listed companies [45]. - Zhu Xi, a master of science from the University of Warwick, UK, is a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly researching lithium and nickel. He focuses on the integration of non - ferrous metals and new energy, tracks the dynamics of the new energy industry chain, provides timely hot - spot and policy interpretations for customers, and has written many in - depth reports, which have been highly recognized by customers [45].

工业硅日报 工业硅&多晶硅日报（2025 年 12 月 3 日） 一、研究观点 点评 2 日工业硅震荡偏弱，主力 2601 收于 8975 元/吨，日内跌幅 2.18%，持仓 减仓 15932 手至 18.7 万手。百川工业硅现货参考价 9745 元/吨，较上一交 易日持稳。最低交割品#421 价格涨至 9000 元/吨，现货贴水扩至 10 元/ 吨。多晶硅震荡偏弱，主力 2601 收于 56315 元/吨，日内涨跌幅 2.7%，持 仓减仓 12837 手至 12.93 万手；多晶硅 N 型复投硅料价格涨至 52350 元/ 吨，最低交割品硅料价格涨至 52350 元/吨，现货对主力贴水收至 5250 元/ 吨。供给延续南减北增节奏，难有明显减负，但需求有较大降幅空间，工 业硅重心有成本支撑、无向上驱动。光伏集中式项目收尾，海外需求同步 下滑，组件端大版型订单大幅缩水，产业链需求负反馈效应加剧，硅料厂 坚持减产不降价策略。随着交易所针对多晶硅提保限仓，淡化近月挤仓情 绪，晶硅回调修正，仓单不足情况下近月暂无深跌空间。 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 EVERBRIGHT FUTURES 1 工业硅日报 | ...

光大期货煤化工商品日报 光大期货煤化工商品日报（2025 年 12 月 3 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周二尿素期货价格坚挺震荡，主力合约收盘价1687元/吨，微幅上涨0.3%。现货市场稳中 幅 波动运行，主流地区现货价格波动幅 -10 +20元/吨。昨日山东、河南地区市场价格均为 | | | | 1680元/吨，日环比分别下调10元/吨、维持稳定。基本面来看，近期部分气头企业开 降负荷 | | | | ，尿素供应水平 步回 ，昨日行业日产量19.56万吨，日环比下降0.34万吨。需求端跟进情绪 | | | 尿素 | 在价格 续上涨后明 转弱，昨日主流地区现货产销率回 至5% 90%区间，仅个别地区产销 | 偏弱震荡 | | | 率超过100%。短期现货市场情绪回 但企业 行 单为主，出货压力 时不大。后续尿素刚 | | | | 需及储备需求仍存，需求支撑仍在。整体来看，近期尿素基本面多 因素均有，上下游产业 | | | | 也在气头企业开工下降与需求之间持续博弈。预计尿素期货盘面延续宽幅震荡 势，关注主 | | | | 力合约 仓 月 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Copper**: Overnight, both domestic and international copper prices rose and then fell, with domestic refined copper spot imports remaining in a loss. The market anticipates that if the dovish Hassert is elected as the new Fed Chair, it will strengthen the market's dovish bets, but balancing monetary stimulus and inflation poses challenges. Domestically, attention is on the upcoming Central Economic Work Conference. In December, the estimated domestic electrolytic copper production is 1168800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.96% and a year - on - year increase of 6.69%. Due to high copper prices, terminal orders have slowed, and the market maintains rigid procurement demand. There are uncertainties about whether the price can continue to rebound as the off - season approaches and there is no sign of a rapid release of demand [1]. - **Aluminum**: Overnight, alumina, Shanghai aluminum, and aluminum alloy all trended weakly. The expected environmental production restrictions on northern alumina plants did not occur; instead, there were new investments and复产 rhythms, leading to a significant correction in the futures market. The decline in aluminum prices has boosted downstream sentiment, and the lagging demand is gradually being fulfilled in the short term. However, as the new energy vehicle purchase tax rush ends and the matching of State Grid orders concludes, it is less likely for aluminum prices to reach a new high this year, and the upside space depends on the bulls' response to subsequent macro - dynamics [1][2]. - **Nickel**: Overnight, LME nickel and Shanghai nickel both declined. The inventory of primary nickel is under pressure, and the production in December is expected to increase month - on - month. Considering the cost support of integrated MHP production of electrowon nickel at 110000 yuan/ton, one can consider bottom - fishing and waiting for positive factors to materialize, but be vigilant against macro - disturbances and overseas industrial policy adjustments [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Research Views - **Copper**: Macro factors' impact on maintaining an optimistic mood is uncertain. Microscopically, the shortage of concentrates supports copper's high valuation, but the lack of rapid demand release in the off - season makes price recovery uncertain [1]. - **Aluminum**: The non - occurrence of expected environmental production restrictions and new investments/复产 have led to a correction in the futures market. Aluminum prices have support, but the possibility of reaching a new high is low [1][2]. - **Nickel**: The nickel - stainless steel industry chain is weak, while the new energy industry chain has tight raw materials. One can consider bottom - fishing with cost support but beware of risks [3]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Copper**: The price of flat - water copper decreased by 610 yuan/ton, and the inventory in some exchanges changed. For example, SHFE copper warehouse receipts decreased by 927 tons [1][4]. - **Lead**: The average price of 1 lead increased by 80 yuan/ton, and the inventory in the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased [4]. - **Aluminum**: The prices of Wuxi and Nanhai aluminum decreased slightly, and the total inventory in the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased by 8439 tons [5]. - **Nickel**: The price of Jinchuan nickel increased by 225 yuan/ton, and the inventory in the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased [5]. - **Zinc**: The主力 settlement price increased by 0.8%, and the social inventory decreased by 0.28 million tons [7]. - **Tin**: The主力 settlement price decreased by 0.6%, and the SMM spot price decreased by 3500 yuan/ton [7]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Spot Premium**: Charts show the historical trends of spot premiums for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2021 - 2025 [9][10][16]. - **SHFE Near - Far Month Spread**: Charts display the historical trends of the near - far month spreads for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2020 - 2025 [17][20][24]. - **LME Inventory**: Charts present the historical trends of LME inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [26][28][30]. - **SHFE Inventory**: Charts show the historical trends of SHFE inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [32][34][36]. - **Social Inventory**: Charts illustrate the historical trends of social inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series from 2019 - 2025 [38][40][42]. - **Smelting Profit**: Charts depict the historical trends of copper concentrate index, rough copper processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless steel 304 smelting profit rate from 2019 - 2025 [45][47][49]. 3.4 Team Introduction - **Zhan Dapeng**: A science master, currently the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, a senior precious metals researcher, and has won multiple industry awards. He has over a decade of commodity research experience [52]. - **Wang Heng**: A finance master from the University of Adelaide, Australia, an analyst focusing on aluminum and silicon, providing in - depth reports and risk management services [52]. - **Zhu Xi**: A science master from the University of Warwick, UK, an analyst focusing on lithium and nickel, tracking the new energy industry chain and providing policy interpretations [53].

农产品日报（2025 年 12 月 3 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周二，玉米近月 2601 合约减仓，资金向 3 月和 5 月合约转移，期价延续震荡表 待涨的情绪较为明显。华北地区深加工企业玉米价格偏弱运行，特别是山东地区， | 震荡 | | | 现。今日东北玉米价格表现仍偏强，粮点低价难上量，目前走货情况也显一般， | | | | 产区贸易商及烘干塔收购积极性一般；基层农户目前售粮积极性一般，基层惜售 | | | 玉米 | 深加工企业到货车辆维持高位，多数企业下调 6-20 元/吨，基层粮点玉米价格整 | | | | 体维持稳定。河南个别深加工上调。河北维持稳定。当前基层农户惜售情绪依然 | | | | 存在，基层收购量未有明显增加，终端需求刚性采购为主，随着气温降低，深加 | | | | 工企业建库意愿或会有所增加。技术上，现货玉米报价延续强势表现，期价震荡 | | | | 调整。12 月警惕玉米期、现报价持续调整，短多注意设置动态止盈。 | | | | 周二，CBOT 大豆收跌，因缺乏支持性消息，且预期南美大豆将丰收。周二美国 ...

Group 1: Research Views - The stock index market showed an overall volatile adjustment yesterday, with all three major indices declining. Over 3,700 stocks in the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets closed lower, and trading volume exceeded 16 trillion yuan. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.42%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.68%, and the ChiNext Index fell 0.69%. The short - term outlook for the index is expected to be volatile [1]. - For the stock index, the liquidity - driven market since June has ended, and the market refocuses on fundamentals. New productivity themes led by AI have optimistic growth expectations for the next three years, especially in the upstream hardware manufacturing of the technology sector. However, these themes have had large increases since June and lack event catalysts near the end of the year, entering a volatile phase since November. Traditional economic sectors like consumer and cyclical themes are in a slow recovery and are unlikely to enter a fundamental bull market in the short term [1]. - In the Treasury bond market, on December 2nd, the central bank conducted 156.3 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchases with a winning bid rate of 1.4%. With 302.1 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, there was a net withdrawal of 145.8 billion yuan. The bond market showed a situation of "good news exhausted", with Treasury bond yields rising slightly and the yield curve steepening. In December, with loose funds but weak expectations of interest - rate cuts, the economy showing marginal weakness but overall resilience, and inflation continuing a mild recovery, Treasury bonds are expected to continue a narrow - range volatile trend [1][2]. Group 2: Daily Price Changes - In stock index futures, on December 2nd, IH decreased by 0.50% to 2,971.4, IF decreased by 0.43% to 4,535.8, IC decreased by 0.70% to 6,982.2, and IM decreased by 0.69% to 7,239.6 compared to December 1st [3]. - For stock indices, on December 2nd, the Shanghai 50 Index decreased by 0.51% to 2,978.5, the CSI 300 Index decreased by 0.48% to 4,554.3, the CSI 500 Index decreased by 0.87% to 7,040.3, and the CSI 1000 Index decreased by 1.00% to 7,313.2 compared to December 1st [3]. - In Treasury bond futures, on December 2nd, TS decreased by 0.02% to 102.39, TF decreased by 0.07% to 105.77, T decreased by 0.06% to 107.98, and TL decreased by 0.42% to 113.89 compared to December 1st [3]. Group 3: Market News - The Shanghai second - hand housing market showed a "tail - end rally" in November. After the implementation of the "Shanghai Six - Point Policy" on August 25th, the market has been steadily improving. In November, the online signing volume of second - hand housing (including commercial properties) reached a new high in the past seven months and ranked third highest in the year. The market features a "moderate recovery with structural differentiation", with an increased proportion of low - priced and high - value housing transactions, a rising rent - to - price ratio for old and shabby houses, and a decline in the number of listed second - hand houses [5]. Group 4: Chart Analysis 4.1 Stock Index Futures - The report provides charts of the trends of IH, IF, IM, IC main contracts, as well as the monthly basis trends of IH, IF, IC, IM [7][8]. 4.2 Treasury Bond Futures - The report includes charts of the trends of Treasury bond futures main contracts, Treasury bond spot yields, 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year Treasury bond futures basis, 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year Treasury bond futures inter - period spreads, cross - variety spreads, and capital interest rates [14][17][19]. 4.3 Exchange Rates - The report offers charts of the central parity rate of the US dollar against the RMB, the central parity rate of the euro against the RMB, 1 - month and 3 - month forward US dollar against the RMB, 1 - month and 3 - month forward euro against the RMB, the US dollar index, euro against the US dollar, pound against the US dollar, and US dollar against the Japanese yen [22][24][26]. Group 5: Member Introduction - Zhu Jintao, a master of economics from Jilin University, is the director of the macro - finance research department at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with futures qualification number F3060829 and futures trading consulting qualification number Z0015271 [31]. - Wang Dongying, an index analyst with a master's degree from Columbia University, mainly tracks stock index futures, is responsible for macro - fundamental quantification, key industry sector research, index financial report analysis, and market capital tracking, with futures qualification number F03087149 and futures trading consulting qualification number Z0019537 [31].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The prices of various energy - chemical commodities are expected to be volatile. Crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, polyester, rubber, methanol, polyolefins, and PVC are all forecasted to have an oscillatory trend in the short - term [1][2][4]. - Although OPEC+ has a more cautious production increase plan, its support for oil prices is limited, and oil prices are expected to fluctuate repeatedly in the short - term [1]. - For fuel oil, in December, the supply of both high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil is expected to be sufficient, and the absolute prices of FU and LU are expected to remain weak [2]. - The supply of asphalt will further decrease in December, with winter storage demand gradually starting, but there is inventory pressure, and the price is expected to oscillate at a low level [2]. - For polyester, the downstream demand is weakening at the end of the year, and the cost of PX is under pressure, so the prices of TA and EG are expected to oscillate [4]. - The rubber market has a situation of weak supply and demand, and the price is expected to remain oscillatory. The price of butadiene rubber is expected to be strong in the short - term and return to normal in the medium - term [4][6]. - Methanol supply will decline slightly in December, and demand will increase. The port inventory is expected to enter the destocking stage, and the price is expected to be oscillatory and slightly strong [6]. - For polyolefins, supply will increase in December while demand will weaken. If the crude oil price remains stable, the price will tend to oscillate at the bottom [7]. - The supply of PVC will increase in December, and demand will weaken. However, due to factors such as the repair of the basis and the removal of export restrictions, the price is expected to oscillate at the bottom [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Tuesday, the price of crude oil dropped. WTI 1 - month contract closed down $0.68 to $58.64/barrel, a 1.15% decline; Brent 2 - month contract closed down $0.72 to $62.45/barrel, a 1.14% decline; SC2601 closed at 449.9 yuan/barrel, down 3.4 yuan/barrel, a 0.75% decline. Geopolitically, there were meetings between relevant parties regarding the Russia - Ukraine issue. The oil product export volume of Russia's Black Sea Tuapse Port is expected to increase by 21.4% in December. OPEC+ will conduct annual oil production capacity assessments starting next year [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: On Tuesday, the main contract of fuel oil on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, FU2601, closed down 0.2% at 2469 yuan/ton; the main contract of low - sulfur fuel oil, LU2602, closed up 0.63% at 3035 yuan/ton. The supply of fuel oil in Singapore is expected to remain sufficient in December, and the prices of FU and LU are expected to be weak [2]. - **Asphalt**: On Tuesday, the main contract of asphalt on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, BU2601, closed down 2.41% at 2916 yuan/ton. In November, the supply and demand of asphalt were both weak. In December, supply will further decrease, winter storage demand will start, and there is inventory pressure. The price is expected to oscillate at a low level [2]. - **Polyester**: TA601 closed down 0.21% at 4752 yuan/ton; EG2601 closed down 0.13% at 3877 yuan/ton. A 400,000 - ton/year MEG device in South China will be shut down for maintenance. The downstream demand is weakening at the end of the year, and the prices of TA and EG are expected to oscillate [4]. - **Rubber**: On Tuesday, the main contract of natural rubber, RU2601, rose 110 yuan/ton to 15360 yuan/ton; the main contract of 20 - number rubber, NR, rose 60 yuan/ton to 12230 yuan/ton; the main contract of butadiene rubber, BR, rose 375 yuan/ton to 10685 yuan/ton. The supply and demand of rubber are both weak, and the price is expected to remain oscillatory. The price of butadiene rubber is expected to be strong in the short - term and return to normal in the medium - term [4][6]. - **Methanol**: On Tuesday, the spot price in Taicang was 2132 yuan/ton. In December, domestic production is expected to decline slightly, and imports will decline from a high level. Demand is expected to increase, and the port inventory is expected to enter the destocking stage. The price is expected to be oscillatory and slightly strong [6]. - **Polyolefins**: On Tuesday, the mainstream price of East China drawing wire was 6320 - 6500 yuan/ton. In December, the supply of polyolefins will increase, demand will weaken, and the price is expected to oscillate at the bottom if the crude oil price remains stable [7]. - **PVC**: On Tuesday, the price of PVC in the East China market was oscillating and slightly strong. In December, supply will increase, demand will weaken, and the price is expected to oscillate at the bottom [7][8]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the daily data monitoring of various energy - chemical products, including spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, and the position of the latest basis rate in historical data for multiple energy - chemical products such as crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas, asphalt, fuel oil, etc. on December 3, 2025 [9]. 3.3 Market News - Russian President Putin met with US envoy Witkoff. The US - Ukraine delegation held talks on the "peace plan" proposed by the US, and some progress was made [13]. - The oil product export volume of Russia's Black Sea Tuapse Port is expected to increase to 1.123 million tons in December, a 21.4% increase compared with the initial plan in November. In November, the actual transportation volume decreased by 64.4% compared with the initial plan [13]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: It includes the closing price charts of the main contracts of various energy - chemical products such as crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, etc., from 2021 to 2025 [15][16][17][21][23][25][29][30]. - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: It shows the basis charts of the main contracts of various energy - chemical products such as crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc., from 2021 to 2025 [32][36][37][39][41][42]. - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: It presents the spread charts of inter - period contracts of various energy - chemical products such as fuel oil, asphalt, PTA, etc. [45][47][50][53][55][57][59]. - **4.4 Inter - variety Spreads**: It includes the spread and ratio charts of different varieties of energy - chemical products such as crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, etc. [61][65][67][73]. - **4.5 Production Profits**: It shows the production profit charts of LLDPE and PP [70]. 3.5 Team Member Introduction - The report introduces the members of the energy - chemical research team, including the assistant director and energy - chemical director Zhong Meiyan, crude oil and other analysts Du Bingqin, natural rubber/polyester analyst Di Yilin, and methanol and other analysts Peng Haibo, along with their work experience, achievements, and professional qualifications [75][76][77][78]. 3.6 Contact Information - The company's address is on the 6th floor and Unit 703, No. 729 Yanggao South Road, China (Shanghai) Pilot Free Trade Zone. The company phone is 021 - 80212222, the fax is 021 - 80212200, the customer service hotline is 400 - 700 - 7979, and the postal code is 200127 [80].