Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The report analyzes the pricing characteristics and influencing factors of the current Treasury bond futures inter - period spreads, and looks forward to the changes in the new round of inter - period spreads (2509 - 2512). It also points out that the inter - period spreads of different varieties show different trends and are affected by multiple factors such as net basis difference, CTD bond spread, and holding income difference [1][4][10] Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Performance of the Current Round of Inter - period Spreads - In the past year, the inter - period spreads of Treasury bond futures have fluctuated greatly. The 2506 - 2509 contract inter - period spreads are generally negative. TL and T contracts show a fluctuating downward trend, and the TL contract inter - period spread reaches a record low. TF and TS contracts show a complex trend of first downward, then upward, and then downward. The overall Treasury bond futures market is greatly affected by tariff policies [4] 2. Main Factors Affecting the Current Round of Inter - period Spread Trends (1) TL Contract - The spread of the TL2506 - TL2509 contract in May continued to decline, reaching a low of - 0.85 on May 28. The net basis difference is negative, but it is not the main factor driving the decline. The decline of the inter - period spread is mainly due to the change in the CTD bond spread. The CTD bond of the TL2506 contract is mainly 200012.IB, and that of the TL2509 contract is mainly 210005.IB. Their spread widened in May, leading to a significant increase in the net price difference [11][13] (2) T Contract - The spread of the T2506 - T2509 contract in May also showed a downward trend, reaching a low of - 0.28 on May 28. The net basis difference is negative, but not the main driving factor. The decline of the inter - period spread is mainly caused by the change in the CTD bond spread. The CTD bond of the T2506 contract follows 220003.IB, and that of the T2509 contract is mainly 220010.IB. Their spread increased in April - May, driving the decline of the inter - period spread [17][21] (3) TF Contract - The spread of the TF2506 - TF2509 contract in May is relatively complex and has smaller fluctuations. It is driven by both the net basis difference and theoretical pricing. The net basis difference is affected by interest rate cut expectations and market sentiment, showing an oscillating trend. The theoretical pricing is negative, and its trend is consistent with the inter - period spread. The spread between 240014 - 240020 affects the inter - period spread [23][24] (4) TS Contract - The spread of the TS2506 - TS2509 contract in May shows an inverted N - shaped trend. The net basis difference is affected by interest rate cut expectations, market sentiment, and position - shifting motivation. The theoretical pricing is negative, and its trend is consistent with the inter - period spread. Both contribute to the spread change [31][32][33] 3. Pricing Characteristics and Outlook of Inter - period Spreads (1) Pricing Characteristics of the 2506 - 2509 Contract Inter - period Spreads - **Commonalities**: All varieties' inter - period spreads are negative. The reasons are that the spreads between the underlying bonds of the near - and far - month contracts are negative, and the positive arbitrage of the 2506 contracts is highly cost - effective, leading to the dominance of long - position holders in the early stage of position - shifting [40] - **Differences**: The impact of CTD bond spreads on different varieties' inter - period spreads varies, with the order of impact being TL > T > TF > TS. The basis characteristics of different varieties also differ. TL contracts are in a state of futures discount, while TS contracts are in a state of futures premium, which affects the position - shifting behavior and inter - period spread trends [41][42] (2) Changes in the 2509 - 2512 Contract Inter - period Spreads - The tracking of the inter - period spread has switched to the 2509 - 2512 contract. The CTD bond spread is no longer the main factor affecting the TL inter - period spread, and more attention should be paid to market sentiment and holding income. The IRR of each variety has declined, and the impact of arbitrage strategies on position - shifting contradictions may change. Continued tracking of the market is needed [43]

Report Summary for Steel and Related Industries 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views - **Steel Industry**: The Iran - Israel conflict slightly boosts market sentiment, but does not change the domestic supply - loose pattern of steel. Steel prices are expected to rebound slightly but continue the downward trend. It is recommended to operate with a short - bias on rebounds or sell out - of - the - money call options [1]. - **Iron Ore Industry**: In the short term, iron ore prices are under obvious pressure due to factors such as the decline in hot metal production, supply increase, and administrative reduction expectations. In the medium - to - long - term, a bearish view on the 09 contract remains. The price range may shift downward to 720 - 670 [4]. - **Coke Industry**: The spot fundamentals are still loose. It is recommended to short the coke 2509 contract at around 1380 - 1430 on rebounds, and consider the strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke [6]. - **Coking Coal Industry**: The spot fundamentals have improved slightly. It is recommended to short the coking coal 2509 contract at around 800 - 850 on rebounds, and also consider the strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke [6]. - **Silicon Iron Industry**: The supply - demand contradiction of silicon iron is rising. Short - term price fluctuations are mainly affected by cost changes. It is necessary to pay attention to coal price changes [7]. - **Silicon Manganese Industry**: The supply pressure of silicon manganese still exists. Short - term prices are expected to fluctuate at the bottom, and attention should be paid to coke price changes [7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: Most steel spot and futures prices showed a downward trend. For example, the price of hot - rolled coil spot in East China decreased from 3200 to 3190 yuan/ton [1]. - **Cost and Profit**: The cost of steel billets decreased by 10 yuan, while the profit of hot - rolled coils in some regions increased, such as the profit of hot - rolled coils in East China increasing by 31 yuan [1]. - **Production and Inventory**: The daily average hot metal output remained unchanged at 241.8 tons, and the production of five major steel products decreased by 2.4%. The inventory of five major steel products decreased by 0.7% [1]. Iron Ore Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of iron ore spot and futures generally declined. For example, the price of PB powder at Rizhao Port decreased from 720 to 713 yuan/ton [4]. - **Supply and Demand**: The global iron ore shipment volume increased slightly, the arrival volume increased, the demand for hot metal decreased slightly, and the port inventory increased [4]. Coke Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: Coke futures prices fluctuated slightly, and the spot price was weakly stable. The third - round price cut of coke was implemented, and there is an expectation of 1 - 2 more rounds of price cuts [6]. - **Supply and Demand**: Due to environmental protection inspections, the production of coking plants decreased, and the demand for hot metal decreased slightly. The inventory of coking plants, ports, and steel mills all decreased [6]. Coking Coal Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: Coking coal futures prices fluctuated slightly, and the spot price was weakly stable. The decline of domestic coking coal slowed down, and some coal mines' transaction prices rebounded [6]. - **Supply and Demand**: Due to environmental protection inspections, the production of domestic coal mines decreased slightly, the import of coking coal was weak, the demand for coking decreased, and the inventory of coal mines and ports increased [6]. Silicon Iron Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: The price of silicon iron futures decreased, and the spot price in some regions increased. The production cost was stable, and the production profit was still in a loss state [7]. - **Supply and Demand**: The production of silicon iron decreased slightly, the demand decreased, and the inventory increased [7]. Silicon Manganese Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: The price of silicon manganese futures decreased, and the spot price in some regions increased. The production cost was relatively stable, and the production profit improved slightly [7]. - **Supply and Demand**: The production of silicon manganese increased slightly, the demand decreased, the manganese ore shipment volume increased, the arrival volume decreased, and the inventory increased [7].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Report - The overall market is affected by multiple factors such as geopolitical situations, policy expectations, and supply - demand relationships across different sectors. Short - term market movements are often influenced by news and events, while long - term trends depend on fundamental factors [2][4]. Summary by Related Categories Stock Index - The index has stable lower support but faces pressure to break through the upper level. Tariff negotiations are ongoing, causing short - term fluctuations due to news. High dividends support the market, resulting in narrow - range oscillations. It is recommended to wait and see for now and try to sell out - of - the - money put options with a strike price of 5800 in July to earn premiums [2]. Treasury Bonds - With loose capital and strong market expectations for the central bank to restart bond purchases, the overall Treasury bond futures are rising, with the short - end being stronger. Attention should be paid to the content of the Lujiazui Forum. If expected policies are implemented, it may drive the curve to steepen bullishly. In the unilateral strategy, Treasury bond futures can be appropriately allocated with long positions on dips [2]. Precious Metals - Gold prices may approach the previous high of around $3450 (¥800) if the Israel - Iran conflict escalates again. If the safe - haven sentiment weakens and the price fails to break through the previous high, out - of - the - money call options on gold can be sold at high prices. Silver still has upward potential under inflation expectations influenced by the Middle East situation on energy prices [2]. Shipping Index - The EC2508 main contract of the container shipping index (European line) is oscillating narrowly in the range of 1900 - 2200. Unilateral operations should be on hold for now [2]. Steel - For industrial steel, demand and inventory are deteriorating. Attention should be paid to the decline in apparent demand. For iron ore, the decline in hot metal production has narrowed, and the arrival volume has reached a high level. It can be shorted on rebounds, with the upper pressure level around 720. For coking coal, the market auction failure rate has decreased, coal mine production has declined from a high level, and the spot market is weakly stable with improved trading and better expectations. For coke, the third round of price cuts by mainstream steel mills on June 6 has been implemented, and there is still an expectation of further cuts, with the price approaching the bottom. Arbitrage strategies such as going long on coking coal and short on coke can be considered [2]. Non - Ferrous Metals - Copper shows weak momentum and narrow - range oscillations. Zinc's price center has moved down, and inventory depletion provides support. Nickel's sentiment is low, and the price continues to test lower levels, with little change in fundamentals. Stainless steel's price is in a downward trend, and its fundamentals are weak. For tin, attention should be paid to the supply - side recovery rhythm, and a short - selling strategy from high levels can be adopted based on inventory and import data inflection points [2]. Energy and Chemicals - For oil, due to high geopolitical uncertainty, it is recommended to wait and see. WTI's upper resistance has expanded to [73, 74], and Brent's upper - end pressure is in [74, 75], while SC's pressure is in [540, 550]. For urea, there is short - term technical correction pressure, and the upside space needs to be verified by news. For PX, short - term support is strong, and short - long positions can be taken, while considering narrowing the PX - SC spread. For PTA, it is slightly bullish in a narrow - range oscillation, and short - long positions are recommended, along with arbitrage strategies. For PF, short - term processing fees have slightly recovered but with limited momentum. For bottle chips, processing fees may bottom - out and rebound during the peak demand season. For ethylene glycol, the shutdown of Iranian plants has boosted the price, and short - term attention should be paid to the 4450 pressure. For styrene, short - term energy disturbances cause oscillating and repeating movements, and mid - term short - selling opportunities based on raw material resonance should be sought. For caustic soda, the alumina purchase price has continuously declined, and the market is looking for a bottom. For PVC, short - term contradictions are not intensified, and it is in a low - level consolidation phase. For synthetic rubber, it has stopped falling and rebounded due to international geopolitical conflicts. For LLDPE, the spot price has risen slightly with neutral trading. For PP, it is in a weak supply - demand situation and oscillates weakly. For methanol, inventory continues to accumulate, and the basis is stable [2][4]. Agricultural Products - For grains and oilseeds, the new US soybean crop is in good condition, and the market oscillates. For hogs, due to weakening demand in hot weather, the price oscillates slightly. For corn, it lacks the power to continue rising and oscillates at a high level. For palm oil, it is expected to optimistically hit 8500 points in the short term. For sugar, overseas supply is expected to be loose, and short - selling on rebounds is recommended. For cotton, the downstream market is weak, and short - selling on rebounds is advisable. For eggs, the spot market is weak, with a bottom - rebound and then short - selling trend. For apples, trading is weak. For dates, the market price is weakly stable. For peanuts, the market price is high. For soda ash, the oversupply logic persists, and short - selling on rebounds is recommended [2]. Special Commodities - For glass, the spot market sales have improved, and the short - term market has support. For rubber, the continuous rebound of crude oil has driven up the rubber price. For industrial silicon, the futures are oscillating in a low - level range [2][3]. New Energy - For polysilicon, futures have declined with reduced positions. For lithium, the main contract is expected to trade in the range of 56,000 - 62,000 [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided regarding industry investment ratings in the given reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Steel Industry - The conflict between Iran and Israel has led to a slight strengthening of ferrous metals including steel, but it does not change the loose supply - demand pattern of Chinese steel. The short - term impact on market sentiment may be positive, but the downward trend remains. Steel prices are expected to rebound slightly but not reverse the downward trend. Suggested operations are to short on rebounds or sell out - of - the - money call options [1]. Iron Ore Industry - The 09 contract of iron ore oscillated, and the spot weakened slightly. In the medium - to - long - term, the 09 contract should be treated with a bearish view. The price range may shift down to 720 - 670 due to the risk of weakening demand in the off - season [4]. Coke Industry - The coke futures oscillated strongly, while the spot was weakly stable. The spot fundamentals are still loose. It is recommended to short the 2509 contract of coke at a rebound to 1380 - 1430 and consider a strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke [6]. Coking Coal Industry - The coking coal futures oscillated strongly, and the spot was weakly stable. The spot fundamentals have improved slightly. It is suggested to short the 2509 contract of coking coal at a rebound to 800 - 850 and consider a strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke [6]. Ferrosilicon Industry - The ferrosilicon futures declined. The supply - demand contradiction has increased. The price is expected to fluctuate at the bottom in the short - term, and attention should be paid to coal price changes [7]. Ferromanganese Industry - The ferromanganese futures oscillated. The supply pressure still exists, and the improvement in supply is insufficient due to weakening demand. The price is expected to fluctuate at the bottom in the short - term, and attention should be paid to coke price changes [7]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Steel Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: Most steel prices and futures contracts declined slightly. For example, the spot price of rebar in South China decreased by 10 yuan/ton, and the 05 contract of rebar decreased by 15 yuan/ton [1]. - **Cost and Profit**: The cost of some steel products changed slightly, and the profit of hot - rolled coils in East China increased by 31 yuan/ton [1]. - **Production**: The daily average pig iron output remained unchanged, while the output of five major steel products decreased by 2.4%, and the rebar output decreased by 5.0% [1]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of five major steel products decreased by 0.7%, the rebar inventory decreased by 2.2%, and the hot - rolled coil inventory increased by 1.4% [1]. - **Demand**: The building materials trading volume decreased by 16.1%, and the apparent demand for five major steel products decreased by 1.6% [1]. Iron Ore Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: The warehouse - receipt cost and spot price of iron ore decreased slightly. For example, the warehouse - receipt cost of PB powder decreased by 7.7 yuan/ton, and the spot price of PB powder at Rizhao Port decreased by 7 yuan/ton [4]. - **Supply**: The global iron ore shipment volume increased by 2.3%, and the 45 - port arrival volume increased by 2.9%. However, the subsequent arrival volume is expected to remain at a relatively high level [4]. - **Demand**: The daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.1%, and the 45 - port daily average ore - removal volume decreased by 4.1% [4]. - **Inventory**: The 45 - port inventory decreased by 0.4%, and the imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 1.2% [4]. Coke Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: The price of coke futures decreased slightly, and the basis of the 09 contract increased by 6 yuan/ton [6]. - **Supply**: The daily average output of all - sample coking plants decreased by 2.2%, and the daily average output of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.1% [6]. - **Demand**: The pig iron output of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.1% [6]. - **Inventory**: The total coke inventory decreased by 1.6%, and the port inventory decreased by 5.2% [6]. Coking Coal Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: The price of coking coal futures decreased slightly, and the 09 basis increased by 11 yuan/ton [6]. - **Supply**: The raw coal output of Fenwei sample mines decreased by 0.8%, and the clean coal output decreased by 1.0% [6]. - **Demand**: The daily average output of all - sample coking plants decreased by 2.2%, and the daily average output of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.1% [6]. - **Inventory**: The coal mine inventory continued to increase, and the port inventory decreased slightly [6]. Ferrosilicon Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: The futures price of ferrosilicon decreased by 0.5%, and the spot price in some regions increased slightly [7]. - **Supply**: The ferrosilicon production decreased by 2.3%, and the operating rate decreased by 4.4% [7]. - **Demand**: The ferrosilicon demand decreased by 3.5%, and the daily average pig iron output decreased by 0.1% [7]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of 60 sample enterprises increased by 3.3% [7]. Ferromanganese Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: The futures price of ferromanganese decreased by 0.9%, and the spot price in some regions increased slightly [7]. - **Supply**: The ferromanganese production increased by 0.9%, and the operating rate increased by 0.8% [7]. - **Demand**: The ferromanganese demand decreased by 2.9%, and the procurement volume of Hebei Iron and Steel Group decreased by 100.0% [7]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of 63 sample enterprises increased by 5.04%, and the average available days of inventory decreased by 1.9% [7].

| 股指期货价差日报 | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Z0016628 | 叶倩宁 | 2025年6月18日 | 品种 | 最新值 | 历史1年分位数 | 全历史分位数 | | | | | | | | | | | 机关 | 较前一日变化 | 2.22 | IF期现价差 | -1.78 | 65.90% | 55.90% | | | | | | | | | | | H期现价差 | 3.46 | 38.90% | 42.70% | -3.15 | 期现价差 | 89.30% | 81.10% | IC期现价差 | -2.51 | 9.10 | -11.47 | IM期现价差 | 8.59 | 90.00% | 62.70% | | 1.20% | 次月-崇月 | -41.00 | 0.00 | 6.70% | 11.80% | 委員-录 ...

| 产业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 2025年6月18日 | | | | 林嘉施 | Z0020770 | | 价格及基差 | | | | | | | 现值 | | 前值 | 日 涨跌 | 日涨跌幅 | 单位 | | SMM 1#电解销 | 119825 | 120725 | -900 | -0.75% | 元/吨 | | 1#金川镇 | 120925 | 121775 | -850 | -0.70% | 元/吨 | | 1#金川镍升贴水 | 2600 | 2500 | 100 | 4.00% | 元/吨 | | 1#进口镇 | 118675 | 119625 | -950 | -0.79% | 元/吨 | | 1#进口镍升贴水 | 350 | 350 | 0 | - | 元/肥 | | LME 0-3 | -204 | -192 | -12 | 6.22% | 美元/吨 | | 期货进口盈亏 | -3303 | -3090 | -213 | 6.89% | 元/吨 | | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - No explicit core viewpoints provided in the given content. The report mainly presents the price, basis, basis rate, and historical quantile data of various futures and spot products across different industries. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Ferrous Metals - **Silicon Iron (SF509)**: Spot price is 5428, futures price is 5264, basis is 164, basis rate is 3.12%, and historical quantile is 79.10% [1] - **Silicon Manganese (SM509)**: Spot price is 5720, futures price is 5536, basis is 184, basis rate is 3.32%, and historical quantile is 55.60% [1] - **Rebar (RB2510)**: Spot price is 3090, futures price is 2981, basis is 109, basis rate is 3.66%, and historical quantile is 51.80% [1] - **Hot - Rolled Coil (HC2510)**: Spot price is 3190, futures price is 3093, basis is 97, basis rate is 3.14%, and historical quantile is 55.60% [1] - **Iron Ore (I2509)**: Spot price is 766, futures price is 700, basis is 67, basis rate is 9.64%, and historical quantile is 52.30% [1] - **Coke (J2509)**: Spot price is 1347, futures price is 1366, basis is - 19, basis rate is - 1.36%, and historical quantile is 35.17% [1] - **Coking Coal (JM2509)**: Spot price is 833, futures price is 790, basis is 44, basis rate is 5.51%, and historical quantile is 30.20% [1] Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper (CU2507)**: Spot price is 78715, futures price is 78570, basis is 145, basis rate is 0.18%, and historical quantile is 56.04% [1] - **Aluminum (AL2507)**: Spot price is 20620, futures price is 20460, basis is 160, basis rate is 0.78%, and historical quantile is 84.58% [1] - **Alumina (AO2509)**: Spot price is 3213, futures price is 2860, basis is 353, basis rate is 12.34%, and historical quantile is 88.54% [1] - **Zinc (ZN2507)**: Spot price is 21940, futures price is 21905, basis is 35, basis rate is 0.16%, and historical quantile is 50.41% [1] - **Tin (SN2507)**: Spot price is 264000, futures price is 263730, basis is 270, basis rate is 0.10%, and historical quantile is 54.79% [1] - **Nickel (NI2507)**: Spot price is 118675, futures price is 118570, basis is 105, basis rate is 0.09%, and historical quantile is 59.58% [1] - **Stainless Steel (SS2508)**: Spot price is 12870, futures price is 12480, basis is 390, basis rate is 3.13%, and historical quantile is 78.75% [1] - **Lithium Carbonate (LC2509)**: Spot price is 60450, futures price is 29860, basis is 590, basis rate is 0.99%, and historical quantile is 54.40% [1] - **Industrial Silicon (SI2509)**: Spot price is 8150, futures price is 7360, basis is 790, basis rate is 10.73%, and historical quantile is 54.01% [1] Precious Metals - **Gold (AU2508)**: Spot price is 782.9, futures price is 785.1, basis is - 2.1, basis rate is - 0.27%, and historical quantile is 38.30% [1] - **Silver (AG2508)**: Spot price is 8831.0, futures price is 8864.0, basis is - 33.0, basis rate is - 0.37%, and historical quantile is 17.80% [1] Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal (M2509)**: Spot price is 2890, futures price is 3074.0, basis is - 184.0, basis rate is - 5.99%, and historical quantile is 2.80% [1] - **Soybean Oil (Y2509)**: Spot price is 8150, futures price is 7972.0, basis is 178.0, basis rate is 2.23%, and historical quantile is 23.40% [1] - **Palm Oil (P2509)**: Spot price is 8730, futures price is 8446.0, basis is 284.0, basis rate is 3.36%, and historical quantile is 61.40% [1] - **Rapeseed Meal (RM509)**: Spot price is 2570, futures price is 2682.0, basis is - 112.0, basis rate is - 4.18%, and historical quantile is 15.60% [1] - **Rapeseed Oil (OI509)**: Spot price is 9780, futures price is 9583.0, basis is 197.0, basis rate is 2.06%, and historical quantile is 60.80% [1] - **Corn (C2507)**: Spot price is 2370, futures price is 2364.0, basis is 6.0, basis rate is 0.25%, and historical quantile is 50.20% [1] - **Corn Starch (CS2507)**: Spot price is 2700, futures price is 2685.0, basis is 15.0, basis rate is 0.56%, and historical quantile is 15.10% [1] - **Live Hogs (LH2509)**: Spot price is 14250, futures price is 13815.0, basis is 435.0, basis rate is 3.15%, and historical quantile is 51.60% [1] - **Eggs (JD2508)**: Spot price is 2670, futures price is 3545.0, basis is - 875.0, basis rate is - 24.68%, and historical quantile is 0.60% [1] - **Cotton (CF509)**: Spot price is 14762, futures price is 13525.0, basis is 1237.0, basis rate is 9.15%, and historical quantile is 86.90% [1] - **Sugar (SR509)**: Spot price is 6130, futures price is 5691.0, basis is 439.0, basis rate is 7.71%, and historical quantile is 79.90% [1] - **Apples (AP510)**: Spot price is 8600, futures price is 7652.0, basis is 948.0, basis rate is 12.39%, and historical quantile is 69.60% [1] - **Red Dates (CJ509)**: Spot price is 8300, futures price is 8895.0, basis is - 595.0, basis rate is - 6.69%, and historical quantile is 69.70% [1] Energy and Chemicals - **Para - Xylene (PX509)**: Spot price is 7133.8, futures price is 6776.0, basis is 357.8, basis rate is 5.28%, and historical quantile is 98.00% [1] - **PTA (TA509)**: Spot price is 5030.0, futures price is 4782.0, basis is 248.0, basis rate is 5.19%, and historical quantile is 84.10% [1] - **Ethylene Glycol (EG2509)**: Spot price is 4455.0, futures price is 4400.0, basis is 55.0, basis rate is 1.25%, and historical quantile is 82.50% [1] - **Polyester Staple Fiber (PF508)**: Spot price is 6640.0, futures price is 6546.0, basis is 94.0, basis rate is 1.44%, and historical quantile is 69.30% [1] - **Styrene (EB2507)**: Spot price is 7920.0, futures price is 7474.0, basis is 446.0, basis rate is 5.97%, and historical quantile is 87.10% [1] - **Methanol (MA509)**: Spot price is 2590.0, futures price is 2455.0, basis is 135.0, basis rate is 5.50%, and historical quantile is 88.10% [1] - **Urea (UR509)**: Spot price is 1810.0, futures price is 1774.0, basis is 36.0, basis rate is 2.03%, and historical quantile is 22.00% [1] - **LLDPE (L2509)**: Spot price is 7350.0, futures price is 7317.0, basis is 33.0, basis rate is 0.45%, and historical quantile is 28.20% [1] - **PP (PP2509)**: Spot price is 7200.0, futures price is 7125.0, basis is 75.0, basis rate is 1.05%, and historical quantile is 42.40% [1] - **PVC (V2509)**: Spot price is 4750.0, futures price is 4833.0, basis is - 83.0, basis rate is - 1.72%, and historical quantile is 58.90% [1] - **Caustic Soda (SH209)**: Spot price is 2593.8, futures price is 2273.0, basis is 320.8, basis rate is 14.11%, and historical quantile is 83.30% [1] - **LPG (PG2507)**: Spot price is 4698.0, futures price is 4382.0, basis is 316.0, basis rate is 7.21%, and historical quantile is 51.60% [1] - **Asphalt (BU2509)**: Spot price is 3800.0, futures price is 3644.0, basis is 156.0, basis rate is 4.28%, and historical quantile is 79.10% [1] - **Butadiene Rubber (BR2507)**: Spot price is 11800.0, futures price is 11485.0, basis is 315.0, basis rate is 2.74%, and historical quantile is 61.10% [1] - **Glass (FG509)**: Spot price is 1024.0, futures price is 974.0, basis is 50.0, basis rate is 4.88%, and historical quantile is 80.67% [1] - **Soda Ash (SA509)**: Spot price is 1201.0, futures price is 1159.0, basis is 42.0, basis rate is 3.50%, and historical quantile is 43.90% [1] - **Natural Rubber (RU2509)**: Spot price is 13850.0, futures price is 13870.0, basis is - 20.0, basis rate is - 0.14%, and historical quantile is 95.62% [1] Financial Futures - **CSI 300 (IF2506)**: Spot price is 3870.4, futures price is 3868.6, basis is - 1.8, basis rate is - 0.05%, and historical quantile is 55.90% [1] - **SSE 50 (IH2506)**: Spot price is 2684.0, futures price is 2680.8, basis is - 3.2, basis rate is - 0.12%, and historical quantile is 42.70% [1] - **CSI 500 (IC2506)**: Spot price is 5750.9, futures price is 5748.4, basis is - 2.5, basis rate is - 0.04%, and historical quantile is 81.10% [1] - **CSI 1000 (IM2506)**: Spot price is 6141.5, futures price is 6130.0, basis is - 11.5, basis rate is - 0.19%, and historical quantile is 62.70% [1] - **2 - Year Treasury Bond (TS2509)**: Spot price is 100.38, futures price is 102.54, basis is - 0.07, basis rate is - 0.07%, and historical quantile is 11.00% [1] - **5 - Year Treasury Bond (TF2509)**: Spot price is 101.17, futures price is 106.30, basis is - 0.04, basis rate is - 0.04%, and historical quantile is 21.90% [1] - **10 - Year Treasury Bond (T2509)**: Spot price is 101.42, futures price is 109.15, basis is - 0.02, basis rate is - 0.02%, and historical quantile is 13.10% [1] - **30 - Year Treasury Bond (TL2509)**: Spot price is 136.63, futures price is 120.79, basis is 0.39, basis rate is 0.32%, and historical quantile is 55.60% [1]

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No information provided on the report's industry investment rating Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The overall demand for logs has entered the off - season, and the winter shipments from New Zealand are expected to decrease seasonally. The fundamentals are in a pattern of weak supply and demand [2]. - The 07 contract will enter the delivery month and face its first delivery. There are large differences in the market under the logic of subsequent delivery costs [2]. - The main log contract reached around 805 yuan yesterday, and there is limited upward space at the current position. It is recommended to mainly wait and see on a single - sided basis or short the far - month contracts on rallies [2]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures and Spot Prices - On June 17, the prices of log 2507, log 2509, and log 2511 contracts increased by 1 yuan, 1 yuan, and 1.5 yuan respectively, with corresponding increases of 0.13%, 0.12%, and 0.19%. The spreads between different contracts and the basis of each contract also changed to varying degrees [1]. - The spot prices of various types of logs in ports such as Rizhao and Taicang remained unchanged, and the foreign quotes of radiata pine and spruce were also stable [1]. Cost: Import Cost Calculation - On June 17, the RMB - US dollar exchange rate was 7.181, with a decrease of 0.003 compared to the previous day, and the import theoretical cost was 777.27 yuan, a decrease of 0.39 yuan [1]. Supply: Monthly - In May, the port shipping volume was 195.5 million cubic meters, an increase of 22.8 million cubic meters or 13.20% compared to April. The number of departing ships was 58, a decrease of 5 or - 7.94% [1]. Inventory: Major Port Inventory (Weekly) - As of June 13, the total inventory of coniferous logs in China was 345 million cubic meters, a week - on - week increase of 6 million cubic meters [2]. Demand - As of June 13, the daily average log outbound volume was 5.98 million cubic meters, a week - on - week decrease of 0.33 million cubic meters, indicating a weakening demand [2].

股指期货持仓日度跟踪 投资咨询业务资格： 广发期货研究所 电 话：020-88830760 E-Mail：zhaoliang@gf.com.cn 目录： 股指期货： IF、IH、IC、IM | 品种 | | 主力合 约 | 总持仓点评 | 前二十席位重要变动 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪深 | 300 | IF2506 | 移仓为主，总持仓 基本持平 | 中金空头减仓超 2000 手 | | 上证 | 50 | IH2506 | 移仓为主，总持仓 基本持平 | 前二十席位多空增减仓不一 | | 中证 | 500 | IC2506 | 移仓为主，总持仓 基本持平 | 前二十席位变动不大 | | 中证 | 1000 | IM2506 | 总持仓小幅上升 | 中信多空头均增持超 3000 手 | 股指期货持仓日度变动简评 -11,929.0 -7,595.0 -9,046.0 -12,027.0 1,165.0 -433.0 333.0 5,515.0 -14,000 -12,000 -10,000 -8,000 -6,000 -4,000 -2,000 0 2,000 ...

广发早知道-汇总版 广发期货研究所 电 话：020-88830760 E-Mail：zhaoliang@gf.com.cn 目录： 金融衍生品： 金融期货： 股指期货、国债期货 贵金属： 黄金、白银 集运指数 商品期货： 有色金属： 铜、锌、镍、不锈钢、锡、碳酸锂 黑色金属： 钢材、铁矿石、焦煤、焦炭、铁合金 农产品： 油脂、粕类、玉米、生猪、白糖、棉花、鸡蛋、花生、红枣、苹果 能源化工： 原油、PTA、乙二醇、苯乙烯、短纤、尿素、瓶片、烧碱、PVC、LLDPE、 PP 特殊商品： 叶倩宁（投资咨询资格：Z0016628） 电话：020- 88818017 邮箱：yeqianning@gf.com.cn 周敏波（投资咨询资格：Z0010559） 电话：020-81868743 邮箱：zhoumingbo@gf.com.cn 本报告中所有观点仅供参考，请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明。 2025 年 6 月 18 日星期三 橡胶、玻璃纯碱、工业硅、多晶硅 2025 年 6 月 18 日星期三 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1292 号 组长联系信息： 张晓珍（投资咨询资格：Z0003135） 电话：020 ...