| 天然橡胶产业期现日报 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 | 2025年12月12日 | | | | 寇帝斯 | Z0021810 | | 现货价格及基差 | | | | | | | | 品中 | | 12月11日 | 12月10日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 云南国营全乳胶(SCRWF):上海 | | 14900 | 14850 | 50 | 0.34% | | | 全乳基差 | | -285 | -365 | 80 | 21.92% | 元/吨 | | 泰标混合胶报价 | | 14350 | 14450 | -100 | -0.69% | | | 非标价差 | | -835 | -765 | -70 | -9.15% | | | 品中 | | 12月11日 | 12月9日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 杯胶:国际市场:FOB中间价 | | 49.46 | 49.03 | 0.43 | 0.88% | | | 胶水:国际市场:FOB中间价 | | 5 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The Fed's decision to cut interest rates by 25bp and its dovish stance have improved short - term global liquidity expectations, but the market has not formed an upward force. The Central Economic Working Conference in China has set the tone for a loose fiscal and monetary policy in 2026, which stabilizes confidence. Different futures varieties show various trends and investment opportunities based on their own fundamentals and market conditions [3] Summary by Relevant Catalog Daily Selected Views - For SN2601, the market is expected to be strong; for V2601, there is still an expectation of over - supply, and the price continues to seek the bottom; for rb2505, the market is expected to be weakly volatile; for O1605, the market is expected to be strongly volatile [3] Full - Variety Daily Reviews Financial - **Stock Index**: After the Fed's interest - rate cut and the Central Economic Working Conference in China, the A - share market showed a pattern of rising and then falling. The market trading sentiment is not high, and it is necessary to be cautious about the risk of chasing high in the volatile range. It is advisable to appropriately lay out a bull spread at low prices. The expectation of a loose monetary policy at the end of the year may rise again, and the 10 - year Treasury bond interest rate may decline towards 1.75%, with a downward space of about 6BP. In terms of strategies, one can participate in going long on the T contract on dips and try to go long on the TL contract with a light position. Also, pay attention to the positive arbitrage opportunity of the 2603 contract [3] - **Treasury Bonds**: After the Central Economic Working Conference, the expectation of a loose monetary policy has risen. In the short - term, the expectation of a loose monetary policy in the market may improve. One can participate in going long on the T contract on dips and try to go long on the TL contract with a light position. For the spot - futures strategy, pay attention to the positive arbitrage opportunity of the 2603 contract [3] - **Precious Metals**: The short - term gold price is approaching the previous high, and it is mainly recommended to buy on dips. The silver market may enter the over - bought range, and it is necessary to be cautious about chasing high and reduce long positions in a timely manner. The platinum - palladium market follows the fluctuations of gold and silver, and it is recommended to maintain a low - buying strategy [3] - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: The EC main contract fluctuates upward, and it is expected to fluctuate in the short - term [3] Metals - **Steel**: Negative feedback affects the steel price to be weak. Pay attention to the decline opportunity of the January rebar - iron ore ratio. For the hot - rolled coil, close the January hot - rolled coil - rebar spread position [3] - **Iron Ore**: With the decline of hot - metal production and the increase of port inventory, the iron ore market turns weakly volatile, and it is viewed as bearish in the range of 730 - 780 [3] - **Coking Coal**: The price - cut range of local coal prices expands, and the Mongolian coal price drops. The futures price shows a weak decline, and it is viewed as bearish in the range of 950 - 1100. One can go long on coke and short on coking coal [3] - **Coke**: The second round of price cuts for coke in December has started, and the port trading price has led the decline. It is viewed as bearish in the range of 1450 - 1600. One can go long on coke and short on coking coal [3] - **Copper**: The Fed cuts interest rates by 25bp. Pay attention to the structural risk of overseas inventory. Hold long positions in the long - term, and the main contract should pay attention to the support at 90000 - 91000 [3] - **Alumina**: Market pessimism spreads, and there is no obvious marginal change in the short - term fundamentals. The main contract operates in the range of 2400 - 2700. Short - term traders can lay out long positions on dips to bet on an emotional rebound [3] - **Aluminum**: The social inventory continues to decline weekly, and the macro - fundamentals resonate, making the market run strongly. The main contract operates in the range of 21700 - 22400. Buy on dips [3] - **Aluminum Alloy**: The futures price rebounds slightly following the aluminum price, and the aluminum - alloy - aluminum price spread expands to 1000. The main contract operates in the range of 20700 - 21400. Conduct an arbitrage of going long on AD03 and short on AL03 [3] - **Zinc**: The US dollar is weakly running. Inventory depletion and the decline of TC boost the zinc price. The main contract should pay attention to the support at 23000 - 23200. Continue to hold the cross - market reverse arbitrage [3] - **Tin**: The fundamentals are strong, and the tin price fluctuates at a high level. Pay attention to the US interest - rate decision. Hold the previous long positions, and adopt a low - buying strategy on dips [3] - **Nickel**: After the macro - factors are settled, the upward space of the price is limited, and the market continues to decline. The main contract operates in the range of 116000 - 120000 [3] - **Stainless Steel**: The market fluctuates and declines slightly. The supply pressure eases slightly, but the inventory depletion is insufficient. The main contract operates in the range of 12400 - 12800 [3] - **Industrial Silicon**: The coking coal futures price continues to decline, and the industrial silicon price fluctuates. The main contract operates in the range of 8000 - 8800 [3] New Energy - **Polysilicon**: The inventory increases slightly, and the polysilicon futures price continues to rise. It fluctuates at a high level, and the main contract operates in the range of 50000 - 60000 [3] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Affected by news and strong capital, the market rise expands. It fluctuates strongly, and it is advisable to wait and see [3] Chemicals - **PX**: The medium - term supply - demand expectation is tight, and the PX price has support at a low level. Treat it as a short - term high - level fluctuation [3] - **PTA**: The supply - demand expectation is strong in the near - term and weak in the long - term, and the driving force is limited. The PTA price mainly fluctuates at a high level in the short - term. Pay attention to the low - level positive arbitrage opportunity of TA5 - 9 [3] - **Short - Fiber**: The supply - demand expectation is weak, and it follows the raw material price fluctuation. The unilateral strategy is the same as that of PTA, and try to reduce the processing margin on the futures price when it is high [3] - **Bottle - Chip**: In December, the supply - demand pattern of bottle - chips remains loose, and it follows the raw material price fluctuation. The processing margin is expected to be squeezed. The unilateral strategy is the same as that of PTA. The processing margin of the main contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 300 - 450 yuan/ton, and it is recommended to reduce the processing margin in the short - term [3] - **Ethanol**: The cost side drops, dragging the EG price to decline in a fluctuating manner. Wait and see [3] - **Benzene**: The port inventory continues to accumulate, and the supply - demand is weak in the near - term and strong in the long - term. The short - term driving force of BZ2603 is weak, and it may follow the fluctuations of styrene and oil prices [3] - **Styrene**: The supply - demand is in a tight balance, and there is certain support at the bottom. The EB01 fluctuates and consolidates at a low level in the short - term [3] - **LLDPE**: The upstream reduces the price to sell goods, and the transaction improves. Wait and see [3] - **PP**: The spot price is stable, and the basis strengthens slightly. Pay attention to the expansion of PDH profit [3] - **Methanol**: The near - term basis is firm, and the transaction is okay. Try to reduce the MTO margin of the 05 contract [3] - **Caustic Soda**: The supply - demand still has pressure, and it continues to run weakly. Treat it bearishly [3] - **PVC**: The contradiction of oversupply has not improved, and the market further weakens. Treat it bearishly [3] - **Soda Ash**: The production is at a high level, and the oversupply is prominent. The market continues to weaken. Hold short positions [3] - **Glass**: The production - sales ratio declines, and the spot price in some regions weakens. The market continues to explore the bottom. Treat it bearishly [3] - **Natural Rubber**: Pay attention to the geopolitical conflict between Thailand and Cambodia. Wait and see [3] - **Synthetic Rubber**: After the interest - rate cut, the BR price rises, but the supply in the upper and middle reaches is abundant. It is expected that there is pressure above. Adopt a short - selling strategy on rallies for BR2602, and pay attention to the pressure around 10800 [3] Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal**: The US soybean market has no bright spots. Pay attention to the domestic soybean customs - clearance policy. The market is strong in the near - term and weak in the long - term [3] - **Pig**: The demand for curing bacon provides support. Pay attention to the epidemic situation. It is in a bottom - grinding market [3] - **Corn**: The increase in supply is limited, and the market fluctuates. It adjusts in a fluctuating manner [3] - **Edible Oil**: The soybean oil price follows the rapeseed oil price to rise. The palm oil price has support at 8000. The P main contract tests the support at 8000 [3] - **Sugar**: The domestic sugar - pressing progress is good. It fluctuates at the bottom [3] - **Cotton**: The purchase of Xinjiang seed cotton is over. Pay attention to the pressure situation around 14000 [3] - **Egg**: The sales at high prices slow down, and the supply is still abundant. It fluctuates weakly. Pay attention to the support strength at the previous low [3] - **Apple**: Traders mainly make inquiries, and the sales of apples slow down. It may fluctuate around 9500 in the short - term [3] - **Jujube**: There is supply pressure, and the market fluctuates at a low level. It runs at a low level [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating The document does not provide an overall industry investment rating. Report's Core View The report comprehensively analyzes various sectors including financial derivatives, commodities, and agricultural products. It assesses the supply - demand relationship, market sentiment, and price trends of each product, and provides corresponding investment strategies based on the analysis [2][3][4]. Summary by Directory Daily Highlights - **Tin**: Fed's balance - sheet expansion boosts market risk appetite, and supply - side tightness leads to a strong - biased shock in tin prices. It's recommended to hold long positions and buy on dips [2]. - **PVC**: The contradiction of oversupply remains unimproved, and the futures prices are expected to continue to decline at the bottom [3]. - **Coking Coal**: Spot prices of coal and coke continue to fall, and the futures prices are expected to be weakly fluctuating. It's recommended to hold a short - biased view and consider an arbitrage strategy of going long on coke and short on coking coal [4]. - **Oils and Fats**: Palm oil may face downward pressure, and its support level is around 8000 yuan. Soybean oil follows the rise of rapeseed oil, and the basis of the May contract is supported [5]. Financial Derivatives Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: After the interest - rate cut, the A - share market showed a trend of rising and then falling. It's recommended to be cautious about chasing highs and consider a bull - spread strategy on dips [6][7][8]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: After the Central Economic Work Conference, the expectation of loose monetary policy has increased. It's recommended to go long on T and TL contracts on dips and pay attention to the positive - arbitrage opportunity of the 2603 contract [9][10][11]. Precious Metals - **Precious Metals**: The risk of a downturn in the US labor market increases the expectation of Fed's easing, leading to a sharp rise in precious metals. Gold is recommended to be bought on dips, silver to be cautious about chasing highs, and platinum to maintain a low - buying strategy [12][13][14]. Container Shipping Index (European Line) - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: The EC main contract is expected to fluctuate in the short term [16]. Commodity Futures Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Fed's interest - rate cut and balance - sheet expansion support copper prices. It's recommended to hold long positions in the long term and pay attention to the support level of 90000 - 91000 yuan [17][20][21]. - **Alumina**: The market is pessimistic, and the price is expected to fluctuate weakly at the bottom. It's recommended to buy on dips or sell out - of - the - money put options [21][22][23]. - **Aluminum**: Supported by strong macro - expectations and supply risks, the price is expected to be strong in the short term. It's recommended to buy on dips [23][25][26]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The price is expected to fluctuate narrowly at a high level. It's recommended to consider an arbitrage strategy of going long on AD03 and short on AL03 [26][27][28]. - **Zinc**: A weak US dollar, inventory reduction, and TC decline boost zinc prices. It's recommended to hold long positions and a cross - market reverse - arbitrage strategy [28][30][31]. - **Tin**: Market sentiment and fundamentals are strong, and tin prices are expected to be strong. It's recommended to hold long positions and buy on dips [31][34][35]. - **Nickel**: After the macro - expectation is settled, the price is under pressure. It's expected to fluctuate in a range. The reference range for the main contract is 116000 - 120000 yuan [35][36][37]. - **Stainless Steel**: The supply pressure eases slightly, but the demand is weak in the off - season. It's expected to fluctuate and adjust. The reference range for the main contract is 12400 - 12800 yuan [38][39][40]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Driven by strong capital sentiment, the price is expected to fluctuate strongly. It's recommended to wait and see [41][44]. - **Polysilicon**: The inventory increases, and the futures price is expected to fluctuate at a high level. It's recommended to wait and see [45][46][47]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The price is expected to fluctuate at a low level. It's recommended to close positions [48][49][50]. Ferrous Metals - **Steel**: Affected by negative feedback, the steel price is weak. It's recommended to consider a short - position strategy on the January contract's iron - ore - to - steel ratio [50][51][52]. - **Iron Ore**: With the decline of hot - metal production and the increase of port inventory, the price is expected to be weakly fluctuating. It's recommended to go short on the 2605 contract [53][54][55]. - **Coking Coal**: Spot prices fall, and the futures price is expected to be weakly fluctuating. It's recommended to hold a short - biased view and consider an arbitrage strategy of going long on coke and short on coking coal [57][58][59]. - **Coke**: The second price cut in December is expected to be implemented, and the price is expected to be weakly fluctuating. It's recommended to hold a short - biased view and consider an arbitrage strategy of going long on coke and short on coking coal [60][61]. Agricultural Products - **Meal**: The US soybeans lack trading highlights. The domestic soybean meal supply is loose, and it's recommended to pay attention to the 1 - 5 positive - arbitrage [62][64][65]. - **Pigs**: The pickling demand provides support, but the price is affected by the epidemic. It's recommended to pay attention to the epidemic situation [66][67]. - **Corn**: The increase in supply is limited, and the price is expected to fluctuate. It's recommended to pay attention to the continuity of supply [68][69][70]. - **Sugar**: The international raw - sugar price is bearish, and the domestic price is expected to fluctuate weakly at the bottom [71]. - **Cotton**: The US cotton price fluctuates at the bottom, and the domestic price is expected to fluctuate strongly. It's recommended to pay attention to the pressure level around 14000 yuan [73][74]. - **Eggs**: The egg price is expected to fluctuate weakly, but the decline is limited [75]. - **Oils and Fats**: Palm oil may face downward pressure, and soybean oil is supported. It's recommended to pay attention to the support level of palm oil at 8000 yuan [76][78]. - **Jujubes**: The supply pressure exists, and the price is expected to fluctuate at a low level. It's recommended to pay attention to the actual sales [79][80]. - **Apples**: The trading is slow, and the price is expected to be stable [81][82]. Energy and Chemicals - **PX**: The medium - term supply - demand is expected to be tight, and the price is supported at a low level. It's expected to fluctuate in the range of 6600 - 7000 yuan [83][84]. - **PTA**: The December supply - demand is expected to be tight, but the first - quarter supply - demand is expected to be loose. It's expected to fluctuate in the range of 4500 - 4800 yuan, and a TA5 - 9 low - level positive - arbitrage is recommended [86][87]. - **Short - Fiber**: The supply - demand is weak, and the price is expected to follow the raw materials. It's recommended to do the same as PTA and shrink the processing margin on rallies [88]. - **Bottle Chips**: The supply - demand is loose in December, and the processing margin is expected to be squeezed. It's recommended to do the same as PTA and shrink the processing margin [89][90]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The cost decline drags down the price. It's recommended to wait and see [91][92]. - **Pure Benzene**: The supply - demand is weak in the short term, and the price is driven by the oil price and styrene. It's recommended to pay attention to domestic device changes [93]. - **Styrene**: The supply - demand is in a tight balance, and the price is expected to fluctuate at a low level. It's recommended to treat it as a low - level shock [96]. - **LLDPE**: The supply pressure increases, and it's recommended to wait and see [97]. - **PP**: The supply - demand increases, and it's recommended to pay attention to the expansion of PDH profit [97][98]. - **Methanol**: The futures price fluctuates narrowly, and it's recommended to pay attention to the shrinkage of MTO05 [98][99]. - **Caustic Soda**: The supply - demand has pressure, and the price is expected to be weak. It's recommended to hold short positions [100][101]. - **PVC**: The oversupply contradiction remains, and the price is expected to decline at the bottom [102]. - **Soda Ash**: The production is high, and the demand contracts. It's recommended to hold short positions [104]. - **Glass**: The price is expected to be bearish [105]. - **Natural Rubber**: It's recommended to pay attention to the geopolitical conflict between Thailand and Cambodia, and the price is expected to fluctuate in the range of 15000 - 15500 yuan [105][107]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The BR price is expected to be under pressure. It's recommended to go short on rallies and pay attention to the pressure around 10800 yuan [109][110].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Views of the Report - The reports mainly present the latest data on various financial products including stock index futures spreads, bond futures spreads, precious metals spot - futures, and container shipping industry spot - futures. These data cover price changes, basis differences, and historical percentile positions, providing a basis for investors to understand market trends and make investment decisions. 3. Summary by Related Categories 3.1 Stock Index Futures Spreads - **Price - Spot Spreads**: For example, the IF price - spot spread was - 2.60, the IH price - spot spread was - 7.84, the IC price - spot spread was - 33.79, and the IM price - spot spread was 9.86 on the relevant day [1]. - **Inter - period Spreads**: There are detailed data on spreads between different contract months such as the next - month and current - month, far - month and current - month, etc. For instance, the IC next - month minus current - month spread was - 16.60 [1]. - **Cross - variety Ratios**: Ratios like CSI 500/CSI 300 were 1.5584, with historical percentile positions provided, indicating their relative valuation levels [1]. 3.2 Bond Futures Spreads - **IRR and Basis**: The 15 - contract IRR was 1.6378, and the basis of different bond futures contracts had various values and changes compared to the previous trading day. For example, the T basis was 1.4325 on 2025 - 12 - 10 [2]. - **Inter - period Spreads**: Spreads between different contract quarters such as the current - quarter and next - quarter, and next - quarter and far - quarter were reported. For example, the TF current - quarter minus next - quarter spread was - 0.0350 on 2025 - 12 - 10 [2]. - **Cross - variety Spreads**: Spreads between different bond futures varieties like TS - TF were - 3.3690 on 2025 - 12 - 10 [2]. 3.3 Precious Metals Spot - Futures - **Futures Closing Prices**: Domestic futures closing prices of AU2602, AG2602, etc. showed price increases or decreases compared to the previous day. For example, the AU2602 contract price rose from 951.54 to 956.40, a 0.51% increase [3]. - **Spot Prices**: London gold, silver, and other spot prices also had corresponding changes. For instance, London gold rose from 4206.59 to 4227.65, a 0.50% increase [3]. - **Basis and Ratios**: The basis between gold TD and Shanghai gold futures, gold - silver ratios, etc. were presented. For example, the basis of gold TD - Shanghai gold futures was - 5.27, and the COMEX gold/silver ratio was 68.46 [3]. - **Interest Rates, Exchange Rates, and Inventories**: 10 - year and 2 - year US Treasury yields, the US dollar index, etc. had changes. Inventory data of precious metals on the Shanghai Futures Exchange and COMEX also showed different trends [3]. 3.4 Container Shipping Industry Spot - Futures - **Shipping Indexes**: The SCFIS (European route) increased by 1.72% from 1483.65 to 1509.10, while the SCFIS (US West route) decreased by 50.71% from 1948.77 to 960.51. The SCFI comprehensive index increased by 0.69% [5]. - **Futures Prices and Basis**: Futures prices of EC2602 (main contract) and others had price changes, and the basis of the main contract changed by 41.01% [5]. - **Fundamental Data**: Global container shipping capacity supply increased by 0.01%, Shanghai port on - time rate decreased by 18.50%, and Shanghai port berthing increased by 5.83%. Monthly export amount increased by 8.19%. Overseas economic indicators such as the euro - zone comprehensive PMI increased by 0.57% [5].

原木期货日报 证监许可 【2011】1292号 2025年12月11日 期货和现货价格 | NUNTHANNING | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 12月10日 | 12月9日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 原木2601 | 756.0 | 766.5 | -10.5 | -1.37% | | | 原木2603 | 776.5 | 778.5 | -2.0 | -0.26% | | | 原木2605 | 787.0 | 789.5 | -2.5 | -0.32% | | | 01-03价差 | -20.5 | -12.0 | -8.5 | | | | 01-05价差 | -31.0 | -23.0 | -8.0 | | | | 03合约基差 | -36.5 | -38.5 | 2.0 | | | | 01合约基左 | -16.0 | -26.5 | 10.5 | | | | 日照港3.9A小辐射松 | 680.0 | 680.0 | 0 | 0.00% | | | 日照港3.9A中辐射松 | 740 | 740 | 0 ...

电 话：020-88818051 E-Mail：yeqianning@gf.com.cn 目录： 股指期货持仓日度跟踪 投资咨询业务资格： 广发期货研究所 股指期货： IF、IH、IC、IM | 品种 | | 主力合 约 | 总持仓点评 | 前二十席位重要变动 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪深 | 300 | IF2512 | 总持仓明显上升 | 中信多空头各增仓超 2000 手 | | 上证 | 50 | IH2512 | 总持仓小幅上升 | 中信多空头各增仓 2000 手左右 | | 中证 | 500 | IC2512 | 总持仓小幅上升 | 中信多空头加仓逾千手 | | 中证 | 1000 | IM2512 | 总持仓明显上升 | 中信多空头均加仓超 3000 手 | 股指期货持仓日度变动简评 -4,561.0 592.0 -4,521.0 -1,039.0 7,169.0 4,369.0 2,642.0 9,226.0 -6,000 -4,000 -2,000 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 IF IH IC IM 主力合约 ...

1. Report Investment Ratings - No investment ratings provided in the report 2. Core Views - **Steel**: Affected by the news that Vanke might be bailed out, the real estate industry's expectations are being restored, and the prices of the black series have risen from their lows. After the Fed cut interest rates and expanded its balance - sheet last night, the overall sentiment is dovish, which is expected to boost the market. The previous decline in steel prices was mainly due to the fall of raw material coking coal prices. The steel fundamentals show a trend of production cut and inventory reduction. The downward driving force is not strong, but the overall demand is average with a year - on - year decline, and the falling iron - water production cycle suppresses raw material prices. Steel will maintain a volatile trend, with the focus on the 3000 - 3200 yuan and 3200 - 3350 yuan ranges for May contracts of rebar and hot - rolled coil respectively. Considering the differentiation in inventory reduction between hot - rolled coil and rebar, the convergence arbitrage of the January hot - rolled coil - rebar spread can be continued, and the long - rebar and short - ore arbitrage should be exited [2] - **Iron Ore**: Stimulated by real estate利好 news, iron ore futures rebounded yesterday. On the supply side, the global iron ore shipment volume increased week - on - week last week, while the arrival volume at 45 ports decreased. On the demand side, steel mills continued to cut production, iron - water production declined, steel mill maintenance increased, steel prices fluctuated at a low level, and the profitability of steel mills improved. From the data of the five major steel products, steel production, inventory decreased, and apparent demand declined seasonally. In terms of inventory, iron ore port inventory increased, the port clearance volume decreased, and the equity inventory of steel mills increased. Looking ahead, as steel mills' iron - water production decreases and steel prices fluctuate at a low level, the market will gradually weaken, and iron ore valuation will decline. For strategies, hold a bearish view on iron ore futures with a volatile trend, and short the iron ore 2605 contract on rallies, with the operating range of 730 - 780 [6] - **Coke**: Coke futures rebounded yesterday. On the spot side, the second round of coke price cuts started on December 10 and is expected to be implemented on the 12th, with short - term price cut expectations still remaining, and port prices have fallen in advance. On the supply side, the price cut range of coking coal in the Shanxi market has expanded, the auction prices of various coal types have continued to fall back, the adjustment of coke prices lags behind that of coking coal, coking profits have been restored, and the start - up rate has increased. On the demand side, steel mills have increased maintenance due to losses, iron - water production has declined, steel prices have rebounded, steel mill profits have been restored, and there is an intention to suppress coke prices. In terms of inventory, coking plants have increased inventory, while ports and steel mills have reduced inventory, and the overall inventory has slightly increased at a medium level. Coke futures have fallen in advance, and the spot price decline refers to the downward space of coking coal and is still in the bottom - finding stage. For strategies, hold a bearish view on coke futures with a volatile trend, with the range of 1450 - 1600, and recommend long - coke and short - coking - coal arbitrage [8] - **Coking Coal**: Coking coal futures declined yesterday. On the spot side, the auction prices of Shanxi coking coal continued to fall, Mongolian coal quotes decreased, and the recent auction failure rate has remained at 30 - 50%. The power coal market has continued to decline, and the coal spot market has become more relaxed again. On the supply side, coal mine shipments have worsened, daily output has slightly decreased, coal mines have accumulated inventory again due to poor sales, and coal mine production may continue to decline near the end of the year. In terms of imports, port inventory has continued to increase, Mongolian coal quotes have followed the futures down, and the recent customs clearance volume has rebounded to a high level. On the demand side, steel mills have increased maintenance due to losses, iron - water production has declined, coking plants' start - up rate has slightly increased after profit recovery, and the market's inventory replenishment demand has weakened. In terms of inventory, coking plants and steel mills have reduced inventory, while coal mines, coal - washing plants, ports, and ports of entry have increased inventory, and the overall inventory has slightly increased at a medium level. In terms of policies, ensuring the long - term coal supply for power plants remains the main theme, and the over - capacity pattern continues. For strategies, coking coal spot prices continue to fall, the futures market has declined significantly, the main contract has shifted to coking coal 2605. Hold a bearish view on coking coal futures with a volatile trend, with the range of 1000 - 1150, and recommend long - coke and short - coking - coal arbitrage [8] 3. Summary by Category Steel - **Prices and Spreads**: Rebar and hot - rolled coil spot and futures prices generally rose. For example, rebar spot in East China increased from 3260 yuan/ton to 3280 yuan/ton, and the rebar 05 contract rose from 3079 yuan/ton to 3117 yuan/ton. The cost of steel billets increased by 20 yuan/ton to 2960 yuan/ton, and the profit of hot - rolled coil in East China decreased by 44 yuan to - 71 yuan [2] - **Production**: The daily average iron - water production decreased by 2.4 to 232.3 tons, a decline of 1.0%. The production of the five major steel products decreased by 26.8 tons to 829.0 tons, a decline of 3.1%. Rebar production decreased by 16.8 tons to 189.3 tons, a decline of 8.1%, and hot - rolled coil production decreased by 4.7 tons to 314.3 tons, a decline of 1.5% [2] - **Inventory**: The inventory of the five major steel products decreased by 35.2 tons to 1365.6 tons, a decline of 2.5%. Rebar inventory decreased by 27.7 tons to 503.8 tons, a decline of 5.2%, and hot - rolled coil inventory decreased by 0.5 tons to 400.4 tons, a decline of 0.1% [2] - **Trading and Demand**: Building material trading volume increased by 2.2 to 11.4 tons, an increase of 23.5%. The apparent demand of the five major steel products decreased by 23.8 tons to 864.2 tons, a decline of 2.7%. The apparent demand of rebar decreased by 11.0 tons to 217.0 tons, a decline of 4.8%, and the apparent demand of hot - rolled coil decreased by 5.4 tons to 314.9 tons, a decline of 1.7% [2] Iron Ore - **Prices and Spreads**: The warehouse - receipt costs of various iron ore powders all increased slightly. For example, the warehouse - receipt cost of PB powder increased from 830.4 yuan/ton to 835.9 yuan/ton. The 01 - contract basis of various iron ore powders decreased. The 5 - 9 spread remained unchanged at 24.0, the 9 - 1 spread increased by 4.0 to - 42.5, and the 1 - 5 spread decreased by 4.0 to 18.5 [6] - **Supply**: The 45 - port arrival volume (weekly) decreased by 218.8 tons to 2480.5 tons, a decline of 8.1%. The global shipment volume (weekly) increased by 45.4 tons to 3368.6 tons, an increase of 1.4%. The national monthly import volume decreased by 500.6 tons to 11130.9 tons, a decline of 4.3% [6] - **Demand**: The daily average iron - water production of 247 steel mills (weekly) decreased by 2.4 tons to 232.3 tons, a decline of 1.0%. The 45 - port daily average port clearance volume (weekly) decreased by 8.5 tons to 318.5 tons, a decline of 2.6%. The national monthly pig - iron production decreased by 49.7 tons to 6554.9 tons, a decline of 0.8%, and the national monthly crude - steel production decreased by 149.3 tons to 7199.7 tons, a decline of 2.0% [6] - **Inventory**: The 45 - port inventory (weekly) increased by 48.2 tons to 15348.98 tons, an increase of 0.3%. The imported - ore inventory of 247 steel mills (weekly) increased by 42.3 tons to 8984.7 tons, an increase of 0.5%. The inventory - available days of 64 steel mills (weekly) decreased by 1.0 to 19.0 days, a decline of 5.0% [6] Coke - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of Shanxi and Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke (warehouse - receipt) remained unchanged. The coke 01 contract increased by 13 to 1527, and the 05 contract increased by 24 to 1701. The coking profit (weekly) decreased by 11 to - 54 [8] - **Supply**: The daily average production of all - sample coking plants increased by 0.8 tons to 64.5 tons, an increase of 1.2%, and the daily average production of 247 steel mills increased by 0.3 tons to 46.6 tons, an increase of 0.6% [8] - **Demand**: The iron - water production of 247 steel mills decreased by 2.4 tons to 232.3 tons, a decline of 1.0% [8] - **Inventory**: The total coke inventory decreased by 1.7 tons to 883.0 tons, a decline of 0.2%. The coke inventory of all - sample coking plants increased by 4.7 tons to 76.4 tons, an increase of 6.5%, and the coke inventory of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.3 tons to 625.3 tons, a decline of 0.0%. The port inventory decreased by 6.1 tons to 181.3 tons, a decline of 3.3% [8] - **Supply - Demand Gap**: The coke supply - demand gap increased by 2.2 tons to - 1.3 tons, an increase of 166.8% [8] Coking Coal - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of Shanxi medium - sulfur main - coking coal (warehouse - receipt) and Mongolian 5 raw coal (warehouse - receipt) decreased. The coking coal 01 contract decreased by 21 to 983, and the 05 contract decreased by 13 to 1070. The 01 - contract basis increased by 16 to 197, and the 05 - contract basis increased by 8 to 90. The sample coal - mine profit (weekly) decreased by 16, a decline of 2.9% [8] - **Supply**: The raw - coal production decreased by 2.7 tons to 853.4 tons, a decline of 0.3%, and the clean - coal production decreased by 0.6 tons to 438.2 tons, a decline of 0.1% [8] - **Demand**: The daily average production of all - sample coking plants increased by 0.8 tons to 64.5 tons, an increase of 1.2%, and the daily average production of 247 steel mills increased by 0.3 tons to 46.6 tons, an increase of 0.6% [8] - **Inventory**: The Fenwei coal - mine clean - coal inventory increased by 20.1 tons to 127.6 tons, an increase of 18.7%. The all - sample coking - plant coking - coal inventory decreased by 1.1 tons to 1009.2 tons, a decline of 0.1%. The 247 - steel - mill coking - coal inventory decreased by 3.0 tons to 798.3 tons, a decline of 0.4%. The port inventory increased by 2.0 tons to 296.5 tons, an increase of 0.7% [8]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The report presents the spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, historical quantiles, and spot references of various commodities, including ferrous metals, non-ferrous metals, precious metals, agricultural products, energy and chemicals, and financial futures on December 11, 2025. [1] 3. Summary by Commodity Category Ferrous Metals - **Silicon Iron (SF603)**: Spot price is 5478, futures price is 5434, basis is 44, basis rate is 0.81%, and historical quantile is 60.50%. [1] - **Silicon Manganese (SM603)**: Spot price is 5790, futures price is 5724, basis is 66, basis rate is 1.15%, and historical quantile is 38.00%. [1] - **Rebar (RB2605)**: Spot price is 3280, futures price is 3117, basis is 163, basis rate is 5.23%, and historical quantile is 66.50%. [1] - **Hot Rolled Coil (HC2605)**: Spot price is 3280, futures price is 3282, basis is -2, basis rate is -0.06%, and historical quantile is 17.60%. [1] - **Iron Ore (I2605)**: Spot price is 842, futures price is 769, basis is 73, basis rate is 9.45%, and historical quantile is 56.30%. [1] - **Coke (J2601)**: Spot price is 1603, futures price is 1527, basis is 76, basis rate is 4.95%, and historical quantile is 90.22%. [1] - **Coking Coal (JM2605)**: Spot price is 1160, futures price is 1070, basis is 90, basis rate is 8.41%, and historical quantile is 48.10%. [1] Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper (CU2601)**: Spot price is 91700, futures price is 91850, basis is -150, basis rate is -0.16%, and historical quantile is 32.70%. [1] - **Aluminum (AL2602)**: Spot price is 21770, futures price is 21935, basis is -165, basis rate is -0.75%, and historical quantile is 9.79%. [1] - **Alumina (AO2601)**: Spot price is 2807, futures price is 2477, basis is 330, basis rate is 13.31%, and historical quantile is 87.22%. [1] - **Zinc (ZN2601)**: Spot price is 23000, futures price is 23075, basis is -75, basis rate is -0.33%, and historical quantile is 43.75%. [1] - **Tin (SN2601)**: Spot price is 316700, futures price is 322630, basis is -5930, basis rate is -1.84%, and historical quantile is 1.45%. [1] - **Nickel (NI2601)**: Spot price is 117000, futures price is 117090, basis is -90, basis rate is -0.08%, and historical quantile is 46.66%. [1] - **Stainless Steel (SS2601)**: Spot price is 12970, futures price is 12555, basis is 415, basis rate is 3.31%, and historical quantile is 75.96%. [1] - **Lithium Carbonate (LC2605)**: Spot price is 92700, futures price is 95980, basis is -3280, basis rate is -3.42%, and historical quantile is 14.09%. [1] - **Industrial Silicon (SI2601)**: Spot price is 9200, futures price is 8250, basis is 950, basis rate is 11.52%, and historical quantile is 62.38%. [1] Precious Metals - **Gold (AU2602)**: Spot price is 951.1, futures price is 956.4, basis is -5.3, basis rate is -0.55%, and historical quantile is 2.20%. [1] - **Silver (AG2602)**: Spot price is 14377.0, futures price is 14373.0, basis is 4.0, basis rate is 0.03%, and historical quantile is 91.00%. [1] Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal (M2605)**: Spot price is 3040, futures price is 2754.0, basis is 286.0, basis rate is 10.38%, and historical quantile is 67.90%. [1] - **Soybean Oil (Y2605)**: Spot price is 8410, futures price is 8000.0, basis is 410.0, basis rate is 5.13%, and historical quantile is 70.10%. [1] - **Palm Oil (P2605)**: Spot price is 8530, futures price is 8528.0, basis is 2.0, basis rate is 0.02%, and historical quantile is 23.00%. [1] - **Rapeseed Meal (RM605)**: Spot price is 2450, futures price is 2329.0, basis is 121.0, basis rate is 5.20%, and historical quantile is 71.20%. [1] - **Rapeseed Oil (OI601)**: Spot price is 9680, futures price is 9443.0, basis is 237.0, basis rate is 2.51%, and historical quantile is 75.40%. [1] - **Corn (C2601)**: Spot price is 2290, futures price is 2241.0, basis is 49.0, basis rate is 2.19%, and historical quantile is 67.40%. [1] - **Corn Starch (CS2601)**: Spot price is 2650, futures price is 2532.0, basis is 118.0, basis rate is 4.66%, and historical quantile is 60.30%. [1] - **Live Hogs (LH2603)**: Spot price is 11300, futures price is 11310.0, basis is -10.0, basis rate is -0.09%, and historical quantile is 44.90%. [1] - **Eggs (JD2601)**: Spot price is 3020, futures price is 3153.0, basis is -133.0, basis rate is -4.22%, and historical quantile is 27.10%. [1] - **Cotton (CF601)**: Spot price is 14830, futures price is 13780.0, basis is 1050.0, basis rate is 7.62%, and historical quantile is 64.90%. [1] - **Sugar (SR605)**: Spot price is 5480, futures price is 5225.0, basis is 255.0, basis rate is 4.88%, and historical quantile is 26.70%. [1] - **Apples (AP605)**: Spot price is 9000, futures price is 9510.0, basis is -510.0, basis rate is -5.36%, and historical quantile is 7.00%. [1] - **Jujubes (CJ605)**: Spot price is 8600, futures price is 9290.0, basis is -690.0, basis rate is -7.43%, and historical quantile is 61.80%. [1] Energy and Chemicals - **Para - Xylene (PX603)**: Spot price is 6774.0, futures price is 6746.0, basis is 28.0, basis rate is 0.42%, and historical quantile is 33.90%. [1] - **PTA (TA601)**: Spot price is 4610.0, futures price is 4616.0, basis is -6.0, basis rate is -0.13%, and historical quantile is 54.10%. [1] - **Ethylene Glycol (EG2601)**: Spot price is 3665.0, futures price is 3682.0, basis is -17.0, basis rate is -0.46%, and historical quantile is 52.80%. [1] - **Polyester Staple Fiber (PF602)**: Spot price is 6275.0, futures price is 6114.0, basis is 161.0, basis rate is 2.63%, and historical quantile is 79.10%. [1] - **Styrene (EB2601)**: Spot price is 6645.0, futures price is 6469.0, basis is 176.0, basis rate is 2.72%, and historical quantile is 63.80%. [1] - **Methanol (MA601)**: Spot price is 2078.0, futures price is 2053.0, basis is 25.0, basis rate is 1.22%, and historical quantile is 56.60%. [1] - **Urea (UR601)**: Spot price is 1700.0, futures price is 1645.0, basis is 55.0, basis rate is 3.34%, and historical quantile is 33.20%. [1] - **LLDPE (L2601)**: Spot price is 6625.0, futures price is 6561.0, basis is 64.0, basis rate is 0.98%, and historical quantile is 42.30%. [1] - **PP (PP2601)**: Spot price is 6345.0, futures price is 6162.0, basis is 183.0, basis rate is 2.97%, and historical quantile is 72.60%. [1] - **PVC (V2601)**: Spot price is 4330.0, futures price is 4328.0, basis is 2.0, basis rate is 0.05%, and historical quantile is 81.60%. [1] - **Caustic Soda (SH603)**: Spot price is 2218.8, futures price is 2110.0, basis is 108.8, basis rate is 9.15%, and historical quantile is 64.50%. [1] - **LPG (PG2601)**: Spot price is 4498.0, futures price is 4242.0, basis is 256.0, basis rate is 6.03%, and historical quantile is 48.20%. [1] - **Asphalt (BU2602)**: Spot price is 2930.0, futures price is 2940.0, basis is -10.0, basis rate is -0.34%, and historical quantile is 50.10%. [1] - **Butadiene Rubber (BR2602)**: Spot price is 10600.0, futures price is 10605.0, basis is -5.0, basis rate is -0.05%, and historical quantile is 28.00%. [1] - **Glass (FG601)**: Spot price is 968.0, futures price is 964.0, basis is 4.0, basis rate is 0.41%, and historical quantile is 77.52%. [1] - **Soda Ash (SA601)**: Spot price is 1104.0, futures price is 1094.0, basis is 10.0, basis rate is 0.91%, and historical quantile is 53.15%. [1] - **Natural Rubber (RU2605)**: Spot price is 14850.0, futures price is 15215.0, basis is -365.0, basis rate is -2.46%, and historical quantile is 76.73%. [1] Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: - **IF2512.CFE**: Spot price is 4591.8, futures price is 4574.2, basis is -17.6, basis rate is -0.39%, and historical quantile is 26.30%. [1] - **IH2512.CFE**: Spot price is 2988.6, futures price is 2980.8, basis is -7.8, basis rate is -0.26%, and historical quantile is 26.70%. [1] - **IC2512.CFE**: Spot price is 7156.0, futures price is 7122.2, basis is -33.8, basis rate is -0.47%, and historical quantile is 37.00%. [1] - **IM2512.CFE**: Spot price is 7408.2, futures price is 7371.4, basis is -36.8, basis rate is -0.50%, and historical quantile is 50.20%. [1] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: - **2 - Year Treasury Bond (TS2603)**: Spot price is 100.09, futures price is 102.46, basis is -0.05, basis rate is -0.05%, and historical quantile is 13.30%. [1] - **5 - Year Treasury Bond (TF2603)**: Spot price is 99.50, futures price is 105.81, basis is -0.09, basis rate is -0.08%, and historical quantile is 16.50%. [1] - **10 - Year Treasury Bond (T2603)**: Spot price is 100.39, futures price is 108.00, basis is 0.08, basis rate is 0.07%, and historical quantile is 26.20%. [1] - **30 - Year Treasury Bond (TL2603)**: Spot price is 127.54, futures price is 112.68, basis is 0.63, basis rate is 0.56%, and historical quantile is 86.70%. [1]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. Core Views Industrial Silicon - Industrial silicon spot prices are stable, while futures prices fluctuate and decline. The arbitrage window remains closed. In December, the supply - demand situation is expected to be weak. Although the output decline is adjusted downward, demand is also expected to fall. In the short term, prices will remain in a low - level oscillation, with the main price range shifting to 8,000 - 9,000 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the support at 8,000 yuan/ton and coal price changes [1]. Polysilicon - Although the futures price has risen, there is still no official announcement about the storage platform. After the storage platform is established, whether subsequent capacity acquisition and output regulation can be implemented will affect whether the industrial supply - demand can return to balance. Currently, the number of warehouse receipts is increasing. Polysilicon futures may still be in a high - level oscillation. Considering the weak demand, if there is no substantial production cut, the spot price has little upward momentum. It is recommended to wait and see [3]. Tin - Macro - sentiment is positive. The supply of tin ore remains tight, and the improvement in supply within the year is expected to be limited. The demand in the South China region shows certain resilience, while the demand in the East China region is more obviously suppressed. The tin price is expected to remain strong within the year. It is advisable to hold existing long positions and go long on dips [4]. Copper - The Fed has cut interest rates, and there is still a risk of structural imbalance in global inventories. Terminal demand is suppressed, and copper prices are oscillating at a high level. In the short term, the imbalance in supply and inventory drives the rapid increase in copper prices, and price fluctuations may intensify. In the long term, the supply - demand contradiction still exists, supporting the upward movement of the bottom center of copper prices [5]. Zinc - The Fed has cut interest rates as expected, and the export space has opened up, but spot transactions are average, and zinc prices are oscillating. Supply pressure has eased, and demand has improved. The short - term price has limited downward space. Refined zinc exports drive the spot market to tighten, boosting domestic zinc prices. In the future, the repair of the Shanghai - London ratio may drive zinc prices higher. Attention should be paid to the inflection point of TC and changes in refined zinc inventories [8]. Aluminum and Alumina - Alumina supply is in excess, and prices are expected to remain at the bottom and oscillate. The key to the market's rebound lies in the actual production cut scale and the inflection point of inventory. For electrolytic aluminum, in the short term, prices are expected to remain strong, but high prices will suppress terminal consumption, and there is a risk of a pull - back after a sharp rise. Attention should be paid to macro - expectations and inventory changes [10]. Nickel - The supply pressure is still strong, and the upward space is limited. Macro - sentiment has improved slightly. The spot transaction of refined nickel is okay. The price of nickel ore is stable, and the price of nickel iron has increased slightly. Stainless steel demand is weak, and the price of nickel sulfate has declined slightly. Overall, the price driver is weak after the valuation repair. In the short term, the market is expected to oscillate within a range [11]. Aluminum Alloy - The casting aluminum alloy market is oscillating strongly due to the game between strong cost support and weak demand. The cost is strongly supported by the shortage of scrap aluminum raw materials and the increase in the price of auxiliary materials. The demand is weak because high aluminum prices suppress downstream purchasing willingness. The price is expected to remain in a high - level narrow - range oscillation in the short term [14]. Stainless Steel - The stainless steel market is oscillating. Macro - factors are temporarily stable. The supply pressure has slightly eased, but the demand in the off - season is weak, and inventory reduction is difficult. In the short term, the market has a certain repair expectation, but the driving force is limited [18]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate market is running strongly. The fundamentals remain in a situation of strong supply and demand. The output has increased slightly, and downstream demand is optimistic. However, there are issues such as the resumption of production by large manufacturers and the sustainability of off - season demand. The market is expected to oscillate widely [21]. Summary by Directory Industrial Silicon - **Spot Prices and Basis**: The prices of East China oxygen - permeable S15530 industrial silicon, East China SI4210 industrial silicon, and Xinjiang 99 - grade industrial silicon remained unchanged on December 10 compared with December 9. The basis of some varieties has changed significantly [1]. - **Monthly Spread**: The monthly spread of some contracts has changed significantly, such as the 2512 - 2601 contract with a 120% increase [1]. - **Fundamental Data (Monthly)**: National industrial silicon production decreased by 11.17%, and the production in some regions such as Yunnan and Sichuan decreased significantly. The production of organic silicon DMC increased by 3.82%, while the production of polysilicon decreased by 14.48% [1]. - **Inventory Changes**: Xinjiang factory - warehouse inventory increased by 2.82%, and social inventory increased by 1.45% [1]. Polysilicon - **Spot Prices and Basis**: The average prices of N - type re -投料 and N - type granular silicon remained unchanged. The N - type material basis decreased by 9.21% [3]. - **Futures Prices and Monthly Spread**: The main contract price increased by 0.55%. The monthly spread of some contracts has changed significantly, such as the 录月 - 连一 contract with a - 102.17% change [3]. - **Fundamental Data (Weekly and Monthly)**: Weekly polysilicon production increased by 7.50%, and monthly production decreased by 14.48%. The import and export volumes of polysilicon and silicon wafers have also changed [3]. - **Inventory Changes**: Polysilicon inventory increased by 3.56%, and silicon wafer inventory increased by 9.23% [3]. Tin - **Spot Prices and Basis**: The price of SMM 1 tin increased by 0.22%, and the LME 0 - 3 premium decreased by 10.87% [4]. - **Import - Export Parity and Ratio**: The import loss decreased by 2.15%, and the Shanghai - London ratio remained unchanged [4]. - **Monthly Spread**: The monthly spread of some contracts has changed, such as the 2512 - 2601 contract with a 35% increase [4]. - **Fundamental Data (Monthly)**: In October, tin ore imports increased by 33.49%, and SMM refined tin production increased by 53.09% [4]. - **Inventory Changes**: SHEF inventory increased by 7.96%, and LME inventory increased by 19.84% [4]. Copper - **Prices and Basis**: The price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper decreased by 0.56%, and the premium of some varieties has changed [5]. - **Import - Export Parity and Ratio**: The import loss decreased by 132.28 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai - London ratio increased by 0.16 [5]. - **Monthly Spread**: The monthly spread of some contracts has changed, such as the 2512 - 2601 contract with a 10 - yuan increase [5]. - **Fundamental Data**: In November, electrolytic copper production increased by 1.05%. The import volume of copper concentrate decreased by 0.26%, and the inventory of copper concentrate in domestic mainstream ports increased by 3.75% [5]. - **Inventory Changes**: Domestic social inventory increased by 0.82%, and SHFE inventory decreased by 9.22% [5]. Zinc - **Prices and Spreads**: The price of SMM 0 zinc ingot decreased by 0.52%, and the import loss decreased by 61.84 yuan/ton [8]. - **Monthly Spread**: The monthly spread of some contracts has changed, such as the 2512 - 2601 contract with a 50 - yuan increase [8]. - **Fundamental Data**: In November, refined zinc production decreased by 3.56%. The import volume decreased by 16.94%, and the export volume increased by 243.79% [8]. - **Inventory Changes**: The seven - region social inventory of zinc ingots in China decreased by 5.75%, and LME inventory increased by 2.84% [8]. Aluminum and Alumina - **Prices and Spreads**: The price of SMM A00 aluminum decreased by 0.50%, and the price of alumina in some regions remained unchanged [10]. - **Import - Export Parity and Ratio**: The import loss of electrolytic aluminum decreased by 76.1 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai - London ratio increased by 0.02 [10]. - **Monthly Spread**: The monthly spread of some contracts has changed, such as the AL 2512 - 2601 contract with a 35 - yuan decrease [10]. - **Fundamental Data**: In November, alumina production decreased by 4.44%, and domestic electrolytic aluminum production decreased by 2.82% [10]. - **Inventory Changes**: The social inventory of Chinese electrolytic aluminum decreased by 0.17%, and LME inventory decreased by 0.48% [10]. Nickel - **Prices and Basis**: The price of SMM 1 electrolytic nickel decreased by 1.00%, and the premium of 1 Jinchuan nickel increased by 3.06% [11]. - **Cost of Electrowinning Nickel**: The cost of some electrowinning nickel production methods has changed, such as the cost of integrated MHP production of electrowinning nickel increasing by 0.19% [11]. - **New Energy Material Prices**: The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 0.95%, and the average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate decreased by 0.04% [11]. - **Monthly Spread**: The monthly spread of some contracts has changed, such as the 2601 - 2602 contract with a 120 - yuan increase [11]. - **Supply - Demand and Inventory**: Chinese refined nickel production decreased by 9.38%, and the import volume decreased by 65.66%. SHFE inventory increased by 4.23% [11]. Aluminum Alloy - **Prices and Spreads**: The price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 decreased by 0.46%, and the refined - scrap price difference of some varieties has changed [14]. - **Monthly Spread**: The monthly spread of some contracts has changed, such as the 2601 - 2602 contract with a 20 - yuan decrease [14]. - **Fundamental Data**: In November, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots increased by 5.74%, and the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots increased by 5.84% [14]. - **Inventory Changes**: The weekly social inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased by 0.54% [14]. Stainless Steel - **Prices and Spreads**: The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 roll) remained unchanged, and the futures - spot price difference decreased by 11.70% [18]. - **Raw Material Prices**: The price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron increased by 0.11%, and the price of Wenzhou 304 scrap stainless steel increased by 0.55% [18]. - **Monthly Spread**: The monthly spread of some contracts has changed, such as the 2601 - 2602 contract with a 70 - yuan decrease [18]. - **Fundamental Data**: The production of 300 - series stainless steel crude steel in China decreased by 0.72%, and the export volume decreased by 14.43% [18]. - **Inventory Changes**: The 300 - series social inventory (Wuxi + Foshan) decreased by 2.06%, and SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 0.09% [18]. Lithium Carbonate - **Prices and Basis**: The average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 0.05%, and the average price of lithium spodumene concentrate increased by 1.12% [21]. - **Monthly Spread**: The monthly spread of some contracts has changed, such as the 2601 - 2602 contract with a 140 - yuan increase [21]. - **Fundamental Data**: In November, lithium carbonate production increased by 3.35%, and the demand increased by 5.11% [21]. - **Inventory Changes**: In November, the total inventory of lithium carbonate decreased by 23.36%, and the inventory of downstream enterprises decreased by 21.13% [21].

1. Report Investment Ratings - No investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views - The reports present daily data on various financial products including stock index futures spreads, bond futures spreads, precious metals spot - futures, and container shipping industry spot - futures. They offer detailed information on price changes, historical quantiles, and related market indicators to help investors understand market trends and price relationships. 3. Summary by Category Stock Index Futures Spreads - **Price - Spot Spread**: For example, the IF price - spot spread was - 2.60, the IH price - spot spread was - 7.84, the IC price - spot spread was - 33.79, and the IM price - spot spread was - 36.84 on the reporting date. The historical 1 - year and full - history quantiles of these spreads are also provided [1]. - **Inter - period Spread**: Different contracts' inter - period spreads such as next month - current month, far month - next month are presented with their latest values, changes from the previous day, and historical quantiles [1]. - **Cross - variety Ratio**: Ratios like CSI 500/CSI 300, IC/IF, etc. are given along with their historical quantiles [1]. Bond Futures Spreads - **IRR and Basis**: IRR values and basis data for different bonds are provided, including the 15 - bond set with an IRR of 1.6378, and basis values for T, TF, TS, etc. with their changes from the previous day and historical quantiles [2]. - **Inter - period Spread**: Inter - period spreads for different bond contracts such as TS, TF, T, TL are presented, along with their changes and historical quantiles [2]. - **Cross - variety Spread**: Cross - variety spreads like TS - TF, TF - T, etc. are given with their values and historical quantiles [2]. Precious Metals Spot - Futures - **Domestic and Overseas Futures Closing Prices**: Closing prices of domestic and overseas precious metal futures contracts (such as AU2602, COMEX gold, etc.) on December 10 and December 9 are provided, along with price changes and percentage changes [3]. - **Spot Prices**: Spot prices of precious metals (such as London gold, Shanghai Gold Exchange gold + D, etc.) on December 10 and December 9 are presented, along with price changes and percentage changes [3]. - **Basis and Ratio**: Basis values (e.g., gold TD - Shanghai gold main contract) and price ratios (e.g., COMEX gold/silver) are given with their changes and historical quantiles [3]. - **Interest Rates, Exchange Rates, Inventory, and Positions**: Data on interest rates (10 - year US Treasury yield, etc.), exchange rates (USD index, etc.), inventory (Shanghai Futures Exchange gold inventory, etc.), and positions (SPRD gold ETF position, etc.) are provided [3]. Container Shipping Industry Spot - Futures - **Shipping Index**: Settlement price indices of SCFIS (European and US - West routes) and Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) are presented with their changes and percentage changes [5]. - **Futures Prices and Basis**: Futures prices of different contracts (EC2602, etc.) and the basis of the main contract are provided, along with their price changes and percentage changes [5]. - **Fundamental Data**: Data on container shipping industry fundamentals including global container shipping capacity supply, port - related indicators (Shanghai port on - time rate, etc.), monthly export amount, and overseas economic indicators (euro - zone PMI, etc.) are provided [5].