Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. Core Views Crude Oil - Wednesday saw a rebound in crude oil prices due to geopolitical tensions and the Fed's interest - rate cut. However, the supply - demand pattern remains loose. Short - term Brent crude is expected to fluctuate between $60 - 65 per barrel. Keep an eye on the US - Venezuela situation and Russia - Ukraine negotiations [1]. Natural Rubber - Overseas supply increase expectations are rising, and upstream cost support is weakening, but the market may have speculative sentiment. Demand from the tire industry is gradually recovering, but overall capacity utilization improvement is limited. Market inventory is being digested. It is expected that rubber prices will fluctuate between 15,000 - 15,500 [4]. Urea - Urea futures fluctuated and closed higher. Shandong Ruixing's production reduction boosted the spot price in the central region. Downstream demand and export orders reduced the inventory pressure. However, the overall supply - demand outlook is weak, and the price rebound space is limited. Short - term urea is expected to continue to fluctuate between 1630 - 1700 [6]. Methanol - Methanol futures oscillated at a low level. The inland supply increased, but profits were weak. The traditional downstream demand increased slightly, and winter fuel demand provided support. Port imports are expected to decline significantly, and the port de - stocking expectation is strengthened, but the current overseas shipments are still high. Continue to pay attention to MTO05 [7]. Polyolefins - The fundamentals of polyolefins show a pattern of increasing supply and weakening demand, with cost support and inventory pressure coexisting. Polypropylene's supply - side maintenance is high, but there is an expectation of an increase. Polyethylene's supply is increasing, and the upstream inventory is still higher than the same period in previous years [12]. Glass and Soda Ash - Soda ash's supply is high, demand is shrinking, and it is expected to return to the inventory - accumulation pattern. The overall situation is bearish, and short positions can be held. Glass prices were affected by real - estate news, and the current short - term demand has support, but the medium - and long - term outlook is not optimistic [14]. PVC and Caustic Soda - Caustic soda's supply and demand are under pressure, and prices are expected to continue to weaken. PVC's supply pressure remains high, demand is weak, and the overall situation is in an oversupply pattern, with prices expected to continue to be weak at the bottom [15]. Polyester Industry Chain - PX is expected to oscillate between 6600 - 7000 in the short term. PTA is expected to oscillate between 4500 - 4800 in the short term, and TA5 - 9 can be long - short hedged at a low level. Ethylene glycol is expected to oscillate at a low level, and short - term observation is recommended. Short - fiber prices are expected to follow the raw materials and oscillate weakly. Bottle - chip prices follow the cost and the processing fee is expected to be squeezed [16]. LPG No specific view on the trend of LPG is provided in the report, only price, inventory, and开工率 data are presented [19]. Benzene - Styrene - Benzene's short - term supply - demand is weak, and BZ2603 may follow the oil price and styrene fluctuations. Styrene's supply - demand is in a tight balance, but the upside space is limited, and EB01 is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [21]. Summaries by Directory Crude Oil - **Price and Spread**: On December 10, Brent rose 0.44% to $62.21 per barrel, WTI rose 0.36% to $58.46 per barrel, and SC fell 1.11% to 444.30 yuan per barrel. Some spreads also changed [1]. - **Product Oil**: NYM RBOB fell 0.46%, NYM ULSD rose 0.57%, and ICE Gasoil rose 0.16%. Some spreads of refined oil also changed [1]. - **Cracking Spread**: The cracking spreads of some refined oil products changed, such as the US gasoline cracking spread fell 3.28% [1]. Natural Rubber - **Spot Price and Basis**: The price of Yunnan state - owned whole - latex rose 1.02%, and the whole - latex basis fell 28.07%. The price of Thai standard mixed rubber fell 0.69%, and the non - standard price difference fell 61.68% [4]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 9 - 1 spread rose 250.00%, the 1 - 5 spread fell 90.00%, and the 5 - 9 spread rose 50.00% [4]. - **Fundamental Data**: The production of Thailand, Indonesia, and China decreased in October, while India's production increased. Tire开工率 increased slightly, but domestic tire production and export volume decreased. The import volume of natural rubber decreased, and the import volume of natural and synthetic rubber increased [4]. - **Inventory Change**: Bonded area inventory and factory - warehouse futures inventory increased, while the outbound rate of dry - rubber bonded warehouses decreased, and the inbound and outbound rates of general - trade dry - rubber warehouses increased [4]. Urea - **Futures Price**: The main methanol contract fell 0.63%. Some futures contract spreads and主力持仓 also changed [6]. - **Upstream Raw Materials**: The price of some upstream raw materials such as anthracite and动力煤 changed slightly [6]. - **Downstream Products**: The prices of some downstream products such as melamine and compound fertilizer remained stable, and the compound fertilizer - urea ratio fell 0.59% [6]. - **Supply - Demand Overview**: Domestic urea daily production increased, coal - based urea daily production increased, and gas - based urea daily production decreased. The weekly production remained stable, the plant - inventory decreased, and the order - days decreased [6]. Methanol - **Price and Spread**: MA2601 and MA2605 prices fell. The MA15 spread,太仓基差, and MTO05 changed. The spot prices of some regions remained unchanged [7]. - **Inventory**: Methanol企业库存,港口库存, and社会库存 all decreased [7]. - **Upstream and Downstream开工率**: The upstream domestic企业开工率 increased, the MTO装置开工率 increased, and some downstream开工率 changed slightly [7]. Polyolefins - **Futures Price**: L2601 and L2605 prices changed slightly, and PP2601 and PP2605 prices fell. Some spreads and基差 changed [12]. - **Non - Standard Price**: The prices of some non - standard PE and PP products changed [12]. - **Upstream and Downstream开工率**: PE装置开工率 increased, and PE下游加权开工率 decreased slightly. PP装置开工率 decreased slightly, and PP粉料开工率 increased [12]. - **Inventory**: PE企业库存 increased, and PE社会库存 decreased. PP企业库存 decreased, and PP贸易商库存 increased [12]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: The prices of glass in some regions and the prices of glass futures contracts changed. The 01基差 increased [14]. - **Soda Ash**: The prices of soda ash in some regions and the prices of soda ash futures contracts decreased. The 01基差 increased [14]. - **Production and Inventory**: Soda ash开工率 increased, the weekly production increased, and the inventory decreased. The浮法日熔量 decreased, and the光伏日熔量 remained unchanged [14]. - **Real - Estate Data**: The year - on - year growth rates of new construction, construction area, completion area, and sales area of real - estate changed [14]. PVC and Caustic Soda - **Spot and Futures Price**: The prices of some PVC and caustic soda products changed. Some spreads and基差 changed [15]. - **Overseas Quotation and Export Profit**: The overseas quotations of caustic soda and PVC changed, and the export profits also changed [15]. - **Supply**: The开工率 of the chlor - alkali industry and the PVC industry increased slightly, and the profits of some production processes decreased [15]. - **Demand**: The开工率 of some downstream industries of caustic soda and PVC decreased [15]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of some products in the chlor - alkali industry changed [15]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Upstream Price**: The prices of some upstream products such as Brent crude oil,石脑油, and PX changed [16]. - **Downstream Polyester Product Price and Cash Flow**: The prices of some downstream polyester products such as POY, FDY, and DTY decreased, and the cash flows also changed [16]. - **PX - Related**: The prices and spreads of PX changed [16]. - **PTA - Related**: The prices and spreads of PTA changed. PTA开工率 remained stable, and the processing fee decreased [16]. - **MEG - Related**: The prices and spreads of MEG changed. MEG港口库存 increased, and the综合开工率 decreased slightly [16]. - **开工率 Change**: The开工率 of some industries in the polyester industry chain changed, such as the开工率 of亚洲PX, PTA, and MEG [16]. LPG - **Price and Spread**: The prices of LPG futures contracts and some spreads changed. The spot price of South China increased, and the基差 changed [19]. - **External Price**: The prices of FEI and CP swaps increased [19]. - **Inventory**: LPG炼厂库容比,港口库存, and港口库容比 all decreased [19]. - **Upstream and Downstream开工率**: The upstream主营炼开工率 decreased slightly, and the下游PDH开工率 increased [19]. Benzene - Styrene - **Upstream Price and Spread**: The prices of some upstream products such as Brent crude oil,石脑油, and pure benzene changed. The spreads of pure benzene also changed [21]. - **Styrene - Related Price and Spread**: The prices of styrene and its futures contracts changed. The spreads and cash flows also changed [21]. - **Downstream Cash Flow**: The cash flows of some downstream products of pure benzene and styrene changed [21]. - **Inventory**: The inventories of pure benzene and styrene in Jiangsu ports changed [21]. - **开工率 Change**: The开工率 of some industries in the pure benzene and styrene industry chain changed [21].

| 油脂产业期现日报 | | | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 Z0019938 2025年12月11日 出洋洋 | | | 田湖 | | | 涨跌幅 | | | 江苏一级 8550 8550 0 0.00% 现价 | | | 期价 Y2605 8222 8190 32 0.39% | | | 基差 Y2605 328 360 -32 -8.89% | | | 现货基差报价 江苏1月 01+260 01+260 0 క | | | 仓单 25964 22994 2970 12.92% | | | 棕榈油 | | | 12月10日 12月9日 涨跌 涨跌幅 | | | 8640 8640 0.00% 现价 广东24度 0 | | | 期价 P2601 8542 8648 -106 -1.23% | | | 基美 P2601 08 -8 106 1325.00% | | | 现货基差报价 广东1月 01+50 01+50 ా | | | 盘面进口利润 -499 -342 -157 -46.06% 广州港1月 | | | 仓車 ਰੇ50 702 248 35.33% ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The Fed cut interest rates by 25bp, with an unexpectedly dovish stance, which is expected to improve global liquidity in the short - term and boost risk assets. A - shares may have short - term upward opportunities, but high - level chasing should be treated with caution [3]. - The pressure on the bond market to decline may have passed its peak, and the bond futures may return to a sideways trend in the short - term. There is a possibility of a phased rebound in the bond market later, and investors are advised to wait and see for now [3]. - Precious metals have increased fluctuations, and short - term gold prices need to build momentum to break the sideways pattern. Silver may face increased trading congestion, and investors should be cautious about chasing high prices [3]. 3. Summary by Categories 3.1 Daily Selected Views - **Bullish**: Tin (SN2601) is expected to be sideways with an upward bias; Methanol (MA2601) and rebar (rb2501) are expected to be sideways with an upward bias at the bottom [3]. - **Bearish**: Corn (C2601) is expected to be sideways with a downward bias [3]. 3.2 All - Variety Daily Reviews 3.2.1 Financial Products - **Stock Index Futures**: Due to the Fed's interest rate cut, short - term global liquidity expectations will improve, and A - shares have short - term upward opportunities. It is recommended to go long intraday but be cautious about high - level chasing, and consider using protective options or bull spread strategies [3]. - **Bond Futures**: The pressure on the bond market to decline may have passed, and bond futures may return to a sideways trend. It is recommended to wait and see for now and pay attention to the outcome of the Central Economic Work Conference. Positive arbitrage opportunities between TL and TF2603 contracts can be gradually considered [3]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold prices are fluctuating in the range of $4150 - 4260 and need to build momentum to break the sideways pattern. Silver may face increased trading congestion after a rapid rise. It is recommended to use a virtual option double - selling strategy for gold and be cautious about chasing high prices for silver [3]. 3.2.2 Industrial Products - **Steel and Iron Ore**: Steel prices have stopped falling and are expected to continue to move sideways. Iron ore is expected to weaken from its high - level sideways movement, and coking coal and coke are also expected to be bearish [3]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: For copper, long - term long positions can be held. Aluminum prices are affected by the Fed's interest rate decision, and it is recommended to take profits for previous long positions and then go long again. For other non - ferrous metals, different trading strategies are provided according to their respective fundamentals [3]. - **New Energy and Chemicals**: Polysilicon futures are rising, while industrial silicon prices are falling. PX has support at low levels, while PTA and short - fiber are expected to be weak in the short - term. Different trading strategies are recommended for various chemical products based on their supply - demand situations [3]. 3.2.3 Agricultural Products - **Grains and Oils**: Corn is expected to be sideways with a downward bias, while soybean meal and rapeseed meal are expected to move in a narrow range. Palm oil has broken through support levels, and its main contract is testing the support at 8500 [3]. - **Livestock and Poultry**: The spot price of live pigs is expected to be sideways with an upward bias in the short - term due to pickling demand [3]. - **Other Agricultural Products**: Sugar is expected to move sideways at the bottom, cotton is expected to be sideways with an upward bias, and eggs are expected to be sideways with a downward bias [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes various sectors including financial derivatives, precious metals, shipping, non-ferrous metals, ferrous metals, agricultural products, and energy chemicals, providing insights into market trends, supply - demand dynamics, and price forecasts for different commodities [2][3][7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Selections - Tin: With strong fundamentals, tin prices are expected to remain strong in the short - term. The supply of tin ore is tight, and the demand in some downstream sectors such as new energy is stable. It is recommended to hold existing long positions and go long on dips [2] - Methanol: The basis is firm, and the trading volume is acceptable. The supply in the inland increases, and the demand from traditional downstream and winter fuel provides support. The price is expected to be weak and volatile in the near term. A strategy of reducing 05MTO positions is recommended [3] - Steel: Market sentiment has improved, and steel prices have stopped falling. The fundamentals show production cuts and inventory reduction, but the overall demand is average. Steel prices are expected to fluctuate in a certain range [3][5][6] - Corn: The supply has increased, and the futures price is weak. However, the downward space may be limited due to the replenishment needs of low - inventory enterprises [7] 3.2 Financial Derivatives 3.2.1 Stock Index Futures - The liquidity expectation may improve with the US interest rate cut, and the A - share market has a short - term upward opportunity. It is recommended to go long intraday but be cautious about chasing high prices [8][9][11] 3.2.2 Bond Futures - The capital supply is loose, and bond futures are expected to fluctuate and recover. It is suggested to wait and see, and consider participating in varieties within 10 - year maturity when the market sentiment improves [13][14] 3.3 Precious Metals - After the Fed's interest rate cut, the divergence among officials has increased, and the volatility of precious metals has increased. Gold is expected to fluctuate within a certain range, and it is recommended to use a strategy of selling out - of - the - money options. Silver shows a relatively strong trend, but be cautious about chasing high prices. Platinum is expected to rise in the medium - to - long - term [15][18][19] 3.4 Shipping (Container Freight Index - Europe Line) - The futures price is expected to fluctuate in the short - term. The spot price has stabilized, and the peak - season expectation has slightly recovered [20][21] 3.5 Non - Ferrous Metals - Copper: After the Fed's interest rate cut, the global inventory imbalance risk still exists, and the terminal demand is suppressed. The price is expected to fluctuate at a high level. It is recommended to hold long positions in the long - term [21][25] - Alumina: The market sentiment is pessimistic, and the price is expected to remain at the bottom and fluctuate. Short - term traders can go long on dips or sell out - of - the - money put options [26][28] - Aluminum: After the Fed's interest rate cut, there is a divergence on the subsequent interest - rate cut rhythm. The price is expected to remain strong in the short - term, but beware of the risk of a pull - back. It is recommended to take profits on long positions at high prices and go long after the reduction trend slows down [28][30][31] - Aluminum Alloy: The price follows the upward movement of aluminum, but the increase is limited. It is expected to maintain a high - level and narrow - range fluctuation [31][33] - Zinc: The export supports the price, and the price is expected to fluctuate at a high level. It is recommended to pay attention to the cross - market reverse arbitrage opportunity [33][37] - Tin: With strong fundamentals, the price is expected to remain strong. It is recommended to hold long positions and go long on dips [37][41] - Nickel: The oversupply situation has narrowed, but the upward space is limited. The price is expected to fluctuate in a certain range [42][44] - Stainless Steel: The supply pressure has slightly eased, but the demand is weak in the off - season, and the inventory reduction is insufficient. The price is expected to fluctuate and adjust [45][47] - Lithium Carbonate: The price is affected by news, and the market divergence is large. It is expected to maintain a wide - range fluctuation. It is recommended to wait and see [48][50][51] - Polysilicon: Affected by the news of the establishment of a platform company, the futures price has risen. However, the demand is weak, and the price is expected to be high and volatile. It is recommended to wait and see [51][53] - Industrial Silicon: Affected by factors such as the decline of coking coal prices and the expected production control of polysilicon, the price has fallen. It is expected to remain weak and fluctuate at a low level [54][56] 3.6 Ferrous Metals - Steel: The market sentiment has improved, and the price has stopped falling. The fundamentals show production cuts and inventory reduction, but the overall demand is average. The price is expected to fluctuate in a certain range [56][57][58] - Iron Ore: The iron - making production has decreased, and the port inventory has increased. The price is expected to be weak and fluctuate. It is recommended to go short on rallies [59][61][62] - Coking Coal: The spot price has fallen, and the futures price is expected to be weak and fluctuate. It is recommended to go short on rallies and consider the arbitrage strategy of going long on coke and short on coking coal [63][65] - Coke: The second - round price cut has been launched, and the price is expected to be weak and fluctuate. It is recommended to go short on rallies and consider the arbitrage strategy of going long on coke and short on coking coal [66][67] 3.7 Agricultural Products - Meal: The USDA report has no significant highlights, and the domestic supply is loose. The price of soybean meal is expected to be weak [69][70][71] - Live Pigs: The pickling demand provides support, and the spot price is expected to be stable and slightly strong in the short - term. However, the supply pattern is still loose, and the futures price may fall back [72][74] - Corn: The supply has increased, and the price is expected to be weak and fluctuate in the short - term. The downward space may be limited due to the replenishment needs of low - inventory enterprises [75][76] - Sugar: The international raw - sugar price is bearish, and the domestic price is expected to fluctuate at the bottom [77] - Cotton: The US cotton price is oscillating at the bottom, and the domestic price is expected to be slightly strong and fluctuate. It is recommended to pay attention to the price around 14000 [79] - Eggs: The supply is still in excess, and the demand is insufficient. The price is expected to be weak and fluctuate, but the downward space is limited [83] - Oils and Fats: The palm - oil inventory has reached a six - year high, and the price has broken through the support level. The soybean - oil market is affected by factors such as the reduction of Argentine export tariffs. The price is expected to be weak and fluctuate [84][85] - Red Dates: The supply pressure exists, and the price is expected to have limited upward movement and maintain a low - level range fluctuation [87] - Apples: The trading volume is slow, and the price is expected to be stable [88] 3.8 Energy Chemicals - PX: The medium - term supply - demand is expected to be tight, and the price has support at the low level. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 6600 - 7000 [89][91] - PTA: The supply - demand is expected to be weak, and the oil price is also weak. The price is expected to be weak and fluctuate in the short - term. It is recommended to consider the TA5 - 9 low - level positive arbitrage [92][93] - Short - Fiber: The supply - demand is weak, and the processing fee is expected to be compressed. It is recommended to follow the PTA strategy and short the processing fee on rallies [94] - Bottle Chips: The supply - demand is loose in December, and the processing fee is expected to be squeezed. It is recommended to follow the PTA strategy and short the processing fee [95][96] - Ethylene Glycol: The port inventory is increasing, but the domestic production reduction has increased. The price is expected to fluctuate at a low level. It is recommended to wait and see [97] - Pure Benzene: The port inventory is increasing, and the supply - demand is weak in the short - term but may improve in the long - term. The price is expected to follow the oil price and styrene [98][99] - Styrene: The supply - demand is in a tight balance, and the cash flow is slightly compressed. The price is expected to fluctuate in the short - term. It is recommended to treat the EB01 contract as a consolidation [100][101] - LLDPE: The upstream has reduced the price to promote sales, and the trading volume has improved. The supply is increasing, and the demand is reaching the peak. It is recommended to wait and see [102] - PP: The spot price is stable, and the basis has slightly strengthened. The supply and demand are both increasing, and it is recommended to pay attention to the expansion of PDH profit [102][104] - Methanol: The basis is firm, and the trading volume is acceptable. The price is expected to be weak and fluctuate in the near term. A strategy of reducing 05MTO positions is recommended [104][105] - Caustic Soda: The supply - demand still has pressure, and the price is expected to be weak and continue to decline. It is recommended to hold short positions [105][106] - PVC: The supply - demand contradiction is still prominent, and the price is expected to be weak and continue to decline. It is recommended to be bearish [107][109] - Soda Ash: The production is at a high level, and the oversupply is obvious. The price is expected to be weak and continue to decline. It is recommended to hold short positions [110][111] - Glass: The sales volume has decreased, and some regional spot prices have weakened. The price is expected to continue to decline. It is recommended to be bearish [110][112] - Natural Rubber: It is recommended to pay attention to the geopolitical conflict between Thailand and Cambodia. The price is expected to fluctuate in the range of 15000 - 15500. It is recommended to wait and see [112][114] - Synthetic Rubber: Driven by natural rubber, the price has risen, but the supply in the upstream and mid - stream is abundant. The price is expected to face pressure above. It is recommended to short on rallies and pay attention to the pressure around 10800 [114][116][117]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Reports Steel Industry - Steel prices are affected by the decline in raw material coking coal prices. The fundamentals show a trend of production reduction. Considering that coking coal prices have not stabilized, steel is expected to remain weak. Pay attention to the support levels of around 3000 yuan for rebar and 3200 yuan for hot - rolled coils in May. The convergence arbitrage of the January hot - rolled coil to rebar spread can continue to be held, and the rebar - to - iron ore ratio arbitrage should stop profit and exit [1]. Iron Ore Industry - The iron ore futures will oscillate weakly. One - sided trading can short the Iron Ore 2605 contract on rallies, with an operating range of 730 - 780 [4]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry - For coke, it is viewed as oscillating and bearish on a one - sided basis, with a range of 1450 - 1600. The recommended arbitrage is to go long on coke and short on coking coal. For coking coal, it is also viewed as oscillating and bearish on a one - sided basis, with a range of 1000 - 1150, and the same arbitrage strategy is recommended [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Industry Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar and hot - rolled coil spot and futures prices in different regions all decreased. For example, the rebar spot price in East China dropped from 3280 yuan/ton to 3260 yuan/ton, and the rebar 10 - contract price decreased from 3164 yuan/ton to 3111 yuan/ton [1]. Cost and Profit - Steel billet prices decreased by 10 yuan, while slab prices remained unchanged. Profits of various steel products in different regions mostly decreased, such as the East China hot - rolled coil profit decreased by 7 yuan [1]. Production - The daily average pig iron output decreased by 2.4 tons to 232.3 tons, a decline of 1.0%. The output of five major steel products decreased by 26.8 tons to 829.0 tons, a decline of 3.1%. Rebar output decreased significantly by 16.8 tons to 189.3 tons, a decline of 8.1% [1]. Inventory - The inventory of five major steel products decreased by 35.2 tons to 1365.6 tons, a decline of 2.5%. Rebar inventory decreased by 27.7 tons to 531.5 tons, a decline of 5.2% [1]. Transaction and Demand - The building materials trading volume increased by 1.3 tons to 10.2 tons, an increase of 15.1%. The apparent demand of five major steel products decreased by 23.8 tons to 855.7 tons, a decline of 2.7% [1]. Iron Ore Industry Iron Ore - Related Prices and Spreads - The basis of 01 - contract for various iron ore types decreased, such as the 01 - contract basis of PB powder decreased from 51.9 yuan/ton to 50.4 yuan/ton. The 1 - 5 spread increased by 4.5 yuan/ton to 22.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 25.0% [4]. Supply - The 45 - port arrival volume decreased by 218.8 tons to 2480.5 tons, a decline of 8.1%, while the global shipment volume increased by 45.4 tons to 3368.6 tons, an increase of 1.4% [4]. Demand - The daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills decreased by 2.4 tons to 232.3 tons, a decline of 1.0%. The 45 - port daily average desulfurization volume decreased by 8.5 tons to 318.5 tons, a decline of 2.6% [4]. Inventory - The 45 - port inventory increased by 48.2 tons to 15348.98 tons, an increase of 0.3%, and the 247 - steel mill imported ore inventory increased by 42.3 tons to 8984.7 tons, an increase of 0.5% [4]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry Prices and Spreads - Coke and coking coal futures prices decreased. For example, the Coke 01 - contract price decreased from 1537 yuan/ton to 1514 yuan/ton, and the Coking Coal 01 - contract price decreased from 984 yuan/ton to 1003 yuan/ton [6]. Supply - The daily average output of all - sample coking plants increased by 0.8 tons to 64.5 tons, an increase of 1.2%. The raw coal output of 247 steel mills decreased by 2.7 tons to 853.4 tons, a decline of 0.3% [6]. Demand - The pig iron output of 247 steel mills decreased by 2.4 tons to 232.3 tons, a decline of 1.0% [6]. Inventory - Coke inventory: The all - sample coking plant coke inventory increased by 4.7 tons to 76.4 tons, an increase of 6.5%, while the steel mill coke inventory decreased slightly. Coking coal inventory: The all - sample coking plant coking coal inventory decreased by 1.1 tons to 1009.2 tons, a decline of 0.1% [6].

原木期货日报 证监许可 【2011】1292号 2025年12月10日 曹剑兰 Z00J9556 | 期货和现货价格 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 12月9日 | 12月8日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 原木2601 | 766.5 | 769.5 | -3.0 | -0.39% | | | 原木2603 | 778.5 | 779.0 | -0.5 | -0.06% | | | 原木2605 | 789.5 | 791.0 | -1.5 | -0.19% | | | 01-03价差 | -12.0 | -die | -2.5 | | | | 01-05价差 | -23.0 | -21.5 | -1.5 | | | | 03合约基差 | -38.5 | -29.0 | -9.5 | | | | 01合约基差 | -26.5 | -19.5 | -7.0 | | | | 日照港3.9A小辐射松 | 680.0 | 680.0 | 0 | 0.00% | | | 日照港3.9A中辐射松 | 740 | 750 | -1 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given reports 2. Core Views of the Reports Steel Industry - Steel prices have dropped, mainly affected by the decline in raw material coking coal prices. The steel fundamentals show a trend of production reduction, and the overall demand is weak. Considering that the coking coal price has not stabilized, it is expected that steel will maintain a weak trend. The support levels for May contracts of rebar and hot-rolled coil are around 3,000 yuan and 3,200 yuan respectively. The convergence arbitrage of the January hot-rolled coil - rebar spread can continue to be held, and the long rebar - short iron ore arbitrage should stop profit and exit [1] Iron Ore Industry - The iron ore futures will fluctuate weakly. The supply side shows an increase in global shipments and a decrease in arrivals at 45 ports. The demand side sees continuous production cuts by steel mills, a decline in hot metal production, and an increase in steel mill overhauls. The market is gradually weakening, and the iron ore valuation is moving down. One - sided short positions can be taken for the 2605 contract, with an operating range of 730 - 780 [4] Coke and Coking Coal Industry - Coke and coking coal futures are trending weakly. The spot prices of coking coal are falling, and the coke price adjustment lags behind coking coal. The supply side of coking coal shows reduced production and increased inventory, while the demand side is weak due to steel mill overhauls. For coke, the supply - demand situation is weakening. The strategy is to take a bearish view on both unilaterally, with the range for coke being 1450 - 1600 and for coking coal being 1000 - 1150, and recommend the long coke - short coking coal arbitrage [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Industry Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar and hot - rolled coil spot and futures prices have all declined. For example, the spot price of rebar in East China dropped from 3,280 yuan/ton to 3,260 yuan/ton, and the 05 contract price dropped from 3,123 yuan/ton to 3,079 yuan/ton [1] Cost and Profit - The prices of steel billets and slabs have changed. The profits of hot - rolled coils and rebar in different regions have also decreased. For example, the East China hot - rolled coil profit decreased by 7 [1] Production and Inventory - The daily average hot metal production decreased by 1.0% to 232.3 tons, and the production of five major steel products decreased by 3.1% to 855.7 tons. The inventory of five major steel products decreased by 2.5% to 1,365.6 tons [1] Transaction and Demand - The building materials trading volume increased by 15.1% to 10.2 tons, while the apparent demand for five major steel products decreased by 2.7% to 864.2 tons [1] Iron Ore Industry Iron Ore - related Prices and Spreads - The basis of the 01 contract for various iron ore powders has decreased, and the 1 - 5 spread has increased by 25.0% to 22.5 yuan/ton [4] Spot Prices and Price Indexes - The spot prices of various iron ore powders at Rizhao Port remained unchanged, while the Singapore Exchange 62% Fe swaps and the Platts 62% Fe index decreased by 1.0% and 1.3% respectively [4] Supply and Demand Indicators - The weekly global iron ore shipments increased by 1.4% to 3,368.6 tons, and the 45 - port arrivals decreased by 8.1% to 2,480.5 tons. The demand side shows a decline in various production indicators [4] Inventory Changes - The 45 - port iron ore inventory increased by 0.3% to 15,348.98 tons, and the 247 - steel mill imported ore inventory increased by 0.5% to 8,984.7 tons [4] Coke and Coking Coal Industry Coke - related Prices and Spreads - Coke futures prices declined. For example, the 01 contract price dropped from 1,537 yuan/ton to 1,514 yuan/ton, and the coking profit decreased by 11 [6] Coking Coal - related Prices and Spreads - Coking coal futures prices also declined. The 01 contract price dropped from 984 yuan/ton to 1,003 yuan/ton, and the coal mine profit decreased by 16 [6] Supply and Demand - Coke production increased by 1.2% to 64.5 tons (weekly), and the production of sample coal mines decreased by 0.3% to 853.4 tons (weekly). The demand side shows a decline in hot metal production [6] Inventory Changes - Coke inventory in coking plants increased by 6.5% to 76.4 tons, and coking coal inventory in coking plants decreased by 0.1% to 1,009.2 tons [6]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report Tin - Considering the strong fundamentals, it is expected that tin prices will remain strong throughout the year. Hold existing long positions and adopt a strategy of buying on dips during price corrections. Monitor macro - level changes and supply - side fluctuations [1]. Zinc - With the improvement of interest - rate cut expectations and the opening of export space, zinc prices are expected to fluctuate with an upward bias. Supply pressure eases, and the price is expected to move higher in the short term. Pay attention to the December FOMC meeting [4]. Copper - In the short term, the imbalance in global copper supply and inventory drives copper prices to rise rapidly, with increased price volatility. In the long term, the supply - demand contradiction supports the upward movement of the price bottom. Focus on the range of 90,000 - 91,000 yuan/ton [6]. Aluminum - Alumina is expected to maintain bottom - level oscillations, with the reference range for the main contract moving down to 2550 - 2800 yuan/ton. The electrolytic aluminum market is expected to remain strong in the short term, but beware of pull - back risks after price surges [8]. Industrial Silicon - It is expected that industrial silicon prices will oscillate at low levels, with the main price fluctuation range between 8500 - 9500 yuan/ton. Consider buying on dips if the price drops to 8500 - 8700 yuan/ton [9]. Polysilicon - Polysilicon futures are likely to oscillate at high levels, but considering the weak demand, the probability of the futures price falling to converge with the spot price is higher. Adopt a wait - and - see trading strategy [10]. Aluminum Alloy - The casting aluminum alloy market is expected to oscillate with an upward bias in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 20,800 - 21,600 yuan/ton. Monitor the improvement in scrap aluminum supply and downstream procurement patterns [11]. Nickel - In the short term, the nickel market is expected to oscillate within a range, with the main contract reference range of 116,000 - 120,000 yuan/ton. Pay attention to changes in macro - expectations and Indonesian industrial policies [13]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel market is expected to oscillate and recover in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 12,400 - 12,800 yuan/ton. Monitor the implementation of steel - mill production cuts and raw - material price changes [14]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate market is expected to oscillate widely in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 92,000 - 96,000 yuan/ton. Consider the resumption of production by large manufacturers and the sustainability of off - season demand [17]. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Spot Prices and Basis - **Tin**: SMM 1 tin price decreased by 800 yuan/ton to 314,000 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.25%. SMM 1 tin premium remained unchanged at 50 yuan/ton [1]. - **Zinc**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price remained unchanged at 23,130 yuan/ton, and the premium decreased by 5 yuan/ton to 70 yuan/ton [4]. - **Copper**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price increased by 715 yuan/ton to 92,300 yuan/ton, a rise of 0.78%. The premium decreased by 40 yuan/ton to 130 yuan/ton [6]. - **Aluminum**: SMM A00 aluminum price decreased by 170 yuan/ton to 21,920 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.77%. The premium decreased by 10 yuan/ton to - 90 yuan/ton [8]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The price of East China oxygen - containing S15530 industrial silicon decreased by 150 yuan/ton to 8300 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.59% [9]. - **Polysilicon**: The average price of N - type re -投料 remained unchanged at 52,300 yuan/kg [10]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: SMM ADC12 aluminum alloy price decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 21,600 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.46% [11]. - **Nickel**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price increased by 150 yuan/ton to 120,200 yuan/ton, a rise of 0.12%. The premium increased by 50 yuan/ton to 4950 yuan/ton [13]. - **Stainless Steel**: The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) increased by 100 yuan/ton to 12,800 yuan/ton, a rise of 0.79%. The basis increased by 90 yuan/ton to 460 yuan/ton [14]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price decreased by 500 yuan/ton to 92,750 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.54%. The basis decreased by 500 yuan/ton to 92,750 yuan/ton [17]. Inter - monthly Spreads - **Tin**: The spread between 2512 - 2601 contracts increased by 200 yuan/ton to - 350 yuan/ton, a rise of 36.36% [1]. - **Zinc**: The spread between 2512 - 2601 contracts increased by 25 yuan/ton to - 15 yuan/ton [4]. - **Copper**: The spread between 2512 - 2601 contracts increased by 40 yuan/ton to - 20 yuan/ton [6]. - **Aluminum**: The spread between AL 2512 - 2601 contracts decreased by 10 yuan/ton to - 25 yuan/ton [8]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The spread between 2512 - 2601 contracts decreased by 8830 yuan/ton to - 8675 yuan/ton, a decline of 5696.77% [9]. - **Polysilicon**: The spread between the main contract and the first - continuous contract decreased by 525 yuan/ton to 2655 yuan/ton, a decline of 16.51% [10]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The spread between 2601 - 2602 contracts increased by 5 yuan/ton to - 45 yuan/ton [11]. - **Nickel**: The spread between 2601 - 2602 contracts decreased by 10 yuan/ton to - 170 yuan/ton [13]. - **Stainless Steel**: The spread between 2601 - 2602 contracts decreased by 22 yuan/ton to - 115 yuan/ton [14]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The spread between 2512 - 2601 contracts increased by 1500 yuan/ton to - 80 yuan/ton [17]. Fundamental Data Tin - In October, tin ore imports increased by 2918 tons to 11,632 tons, a rise of 33.49%. SMM refined tin production in October increased by 2580 tons to 16,090 tons, a rise of 53.09% [1]. Zinc - In November, refined zinc production decreased by 2.20 million tons to 59.52 million tons, a decline of 3.56%. In October, refined zinc imports decreased by 0.38 million tons to 1.88 million tons, a decline of 16.94% [4]. Copper - In November, electrolytic copper production increased by 1.15 million tons to 110.31 million tons, a rise of 1.05%. In October, electrolytic copper imports decreased by 5.22 million tons to 28.21 million tons, a decline of 15.61% [6]. Aluminum - In November, alumina production decreased by 34.6 million tons to 743.94 million tons, a decline of 4.44%. Domestic electrolytic aluminum production decreased by 10.6 million tons to 363.66 million tons, a decline of 2.82% [8]. Industrial Silicon - National industrial silicon production decreased by 5.05 million tons to 40.17 million tons, a decline of 11.17%. The national operating rate decreased by 3.30 percentage points to 64.82% [9]. Polysilicon - Weekly polysilicon production increased by 0.18 million tons to 2.58 million tons, a rise of 7.50%. Monthly polysilicon production decreased by 1.94 million tons to 11.46 million tons, a decline of 14.48% [10]. Aluminum Alloy - In November, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots increased by 3.7 million tons to 68.20 million tons, a rise of 5.74%. The production of primary aluminum alloy ingots increased by 1.7 million tons to 30.27 million tons, a rise of 5.84% [11]. Nickel - Chinese refined nickel production decreased by 3453 tons to 33,345 tons, a decline of 9.38%. Refined nickel imports decreased by 18,626 tons to 9741 tons, a decline of 65.66% [13]. Stainless Steel - The production of Chinese 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel (43 manufacturers) decreased by 1.30 million tons to 178.70 million tons, a decline of 0.72%. The production of Indonesian 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel (Qinglong) increased by 0.15 million tons to 42.35 million tons, a rise of 0.36% [14]. Lithium Carbonate - In November, lithium carbonate production increased by 3090 tons to 92,350 tons, a rise of 3.35%. Lithium carbonate demand increased by 6490 tons to 133,451 tons, a rise of 5.11% [17]. Inventory Changes Tin - SHEF weekly inventory increased by 206 tons to 6865 tons, a rise of 1.96%. Social inventory increased by 187 tons to 8012 tons, a rise of 2.39% [1]. Zinc - China's seven - region zinc ingot social inventory decreased by 0.83 million tons to 13.60 million tons, a decline of 5.75%. LME inventory increased by 0.24 million tons to 5.8 million tons, a rise of 4.29% [4]. Copper - Domestic social inventory increased by 0.13 million tons to 16.03 million tons, a rise of 0.82%. Bonded - area inventory decreased by 1.14 million tons to 7.75 million tons, a decline of 12.82% [6]. Aluminum - China's electrolytic aluminum social inventory decreased by 0.1 million tons to 59.50 million tons, a decline of 0.17%. LME inventory decreased by 0.3 million tons to 52.6 million tons, a decline of 0.47% [8]. Industrial Silicon - Xinjiang inventory increased by 0.34 million tons to 12.38 million tons, a rise of 2.82%. Social inventory increased by 0.80 million tons to 55.80 million tons, a rise of 1.45% [9]. Polysilicon - Polysilicon inventory increased by 1.00 million tons to 29.10 million tons, a rise of 3.56%. Silicon wafer inventory increased by 1.80 million tons to 21.30 million tons, a rise of 9.23% [10]. Aluminum Alloy - The weekly social inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased by 0.03 million tons to 5.53 million tons, a decline of 0.54% [11]. Nickel - SHFE inventory increased by 1726 tons to 42,508 tons, a rise of 4.23%. Social inventory increased by 1499 tons to 26,848 tons, a rise of 2.71% [13]. Stainless Steel - The 300 - series social inventory (Wuxi + Foshan) decreased by 1.04 million tons to 49.20 million tons, a decline of 2.06%. The 300 - series cold - rolled social inventory (Wuxi + Foshan) decreased by 0.44 million tons to 29.82 million tons, a decline of 1.44% [14]. Lithium Carbonate - In November, lithium carbonate total inventory decreased by 19,674 tons to 64,560 tons, a decline of 23.36%. Downstream inventory decreased by 11,261 tons to 42,030 tons, a decline of 21.13% [17].

| 一 F E E H H H P F 股指期货价差日报 | | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1292号 2025年12月10日 叶带守 Z0016628 | | 价左 品种 봄 郑 唱 校前一日变化 历史1年分位数 全历史分位数 | | 正期现价关 15.02 6.47 54.50% 30.00% | | HINDANK -6.36 -2.00 32.10% 30.6088 期现价差 | | IC期现价差 26.93 1 44 72.10% 44.90% | | -32.78 -19.95 89.30% IM期面价差 90.0096 | | 次月-崇月 -15.20 0.60 30.30% 28.60% | | 委員 - 景日 -39.40 -2.20 34.80% 28.20% 延月 景月 84.40 0.20 26.20% 22.90% | | 正层期的差 李月-次月 24.20 2.80 38.90% 27.40% | | -69.20 -0.80 23.70% 22.10% 远月-次月 | | 16.30% 元月-季月 -45.00 2.00 18.80% | | 次月-当 ...

| 折算价:72硅铁合格块:内蒙-天津仓单 | 0.29% | 57.40% | 硅铁 (SF603) | 5462 | 16 | 5478 | 0.84% | 48 | 硅罐 (SM603) | 5780 | 5732 | 折算价:6517硅锰:内蒙-湖北仓单 | 34.70% | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 5.88% | 181 | HRB40020mm:上海 | 螺纹钢 (RB2605) | 3260 | 3079 | 69.40% | Q235B: 4.75mm: 上海 | -2 | 3252 | -0:06% | 17.60% | 3250 | 热卷 (HC2605) | | | | | | 74 | 832 | 758 | 折算价:62.5%巴混粉(BRBF):淡水河谷:日照港 | 9.83% | 57.80% | 铁矿石 (12605) | 5.85% | 1603 | 89 | 焦炭 ...