| 股指期货价差日报 | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Z0016628 | 叶倩宁 | 2025年5月19日 | 历史1年分位数 | 全历史分位数 | | | | | | | | | | | | | 价差 | 品种 | 城新伯 | 较前一日变化 | F期现价差 | -43.09 | -8.69 | 8.60% | 6.00% | | | | | | | | | H期现价差 | -21.46 | -4.16 | 11.80% | 7.40% | 期现价差 | IC期现价差 | -114.05 | -21.75 | 5.70% | 2.20% | IM期现价差 | -134.32 | -26.28 | 70.00% | 5.40% | | 次月-当月 | -40.60 | -5.20 | 0.80% | 6.80% | 李月-景日 | ...

股指期货持仓日度跟踪 投资咨询业务资格： 广发期货研究所 电 话：020-88830760 E-Mail：zhaoliang@gf.com.cn 1,615.0 -1,428.0 -825.0 1,610.0 -13,654.0 -7,939.0 -12,115.0 -16,939.0 -20,000 -15,000 -10,000 -5,000 0 5,000 IF IH IC IM 主力合约持仓变动 总持仓变动 数据来源：Wind 广发期货研究所整理 本报告中所有观点仅供参考，请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明。 目录： 股指期货： IF、IH、IC、IM | 品种 | | 主力合 约 | 总持仓点评 | 前二十席位重要变动 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪深 | 300 | IF2506 | 总持仓大幅下降 | 中信多空头均大幅减仓 | | 上证 | 50 | IH2506 | 总持仓下降 | 国君、中信多空头均明显减仓 | | 中证 | 500 | IC2506 | 总持仓下降 | 中信多空头减仓 3000 手以上 | | 中证 | 1000 | IM2506 | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Oils and Fats Industry - Palm oil futures are expected to continue their downward trend, with a long - term bearish view. The first target for the decline is around 3,500 ringgit. In the domestic market, palm oil has fallen below 8,000 yuan and may seek support in the 7,900 - 8,000 yuan range. - For soybeans, concerns about the US renewable diesel quota policy (RVO) have led to a market decline. If there is no new news on the biodiesel policy, the July contract will fluctuate around the daily mid - track at 48.9 cents, and may fall to 46 cents later. In the domestic market, soybean oil supply is increasing, and the spot basis price is expected to decline [1]. Sugar Industry - Although the sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil decreased in the second half of April, the 25/26 sugar - cane season still has a promising harvest. Short - term raw sugar is expected to oscillate between 17 - 20 cents per pound. The domestic sugar supply is abundant, and sales are strong. The market focus is on future import rhythms, and sugar prices are expected to be weak and volatile [3]. Cotton Industry - Macro - level conditions have marginally improved, but US tariffs on Chinese cotton products remain high, which is unfavorable to domestic export - oriented enterprises. The industry's improvement is not obvious, and short - term domestic cotton prices may oscillate after rising, and further increase requires downstream improvement [5]. Egg Industry - The national egg supply is sufficient, which has a negative impact on egg prices. Demand may first decrease and then increase, and egg prices are expected to first fall and then rise slightly next week [8]. Meal Industry - Spring sowing of US soybeans is progressing smoothly, and the Brazilian soybean supply pressure is being realized. In the domestic market, soybean arrivals are increasing, oil mill operations are rising, but demand is not boosted, and the basis is under pressure. Attention should be paid to the performance of soybean meal around 2,900 [10]. Pig Industry - The spot price of pigs is stable, and the supply - demand relationship has not changed significantly. The fat - to - standard price difference is narrowing, and the pressure on fat pigs is increasing. There may be an increase in the second - fattening pig supply. The demand is weak, and pig prices are expected to oscillate. The 09 contract is below 14,000, and the market is expected to neither decline sharply nor rise strongly [13][14]. Corn Industry - In the short term, the corn market is stable, with the base grain sold out and the right of grain ownership transferred to traders. The price is stable in the northeast and may be slightly adjusted down in the north - central region. In the long term, the supply will tighten, and the price is expected to rise. It is recommended to go long on dips [16]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Oils and Fats Industry - **Prices**: On May 16, the price of soybean oil in Jiangsu was 8,240 yuan/ton, down 0.60% from the previous day; the price of palm oil in Guangdong was 8,600 yuan/ton, down 0.58%; the price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9,450 yuan/ton, down 0.53% [1]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The warehouse receipts of soybean oil were 12,370, up 13.80%; palm oil warehouse receipts were 1,500, up 13.80%; rapeseed oil warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 1,725 [1]. Sugar Industry - **Futures and Spot Prices**: On May 19, the sugar 2601 contract was 5,723 yuan/ton, down 0.47%; the sugar 2509 contract was 5,855 yuan/ton, down 0.53%. The spot price in Nanning was 6,145 yuan/ton, down 0.32% [3]. - **Industry Data**: National sugar production reached 11.1072 million tons, an increase of 11.63%; sales were 7.2446 million tons, an increase of 26.07%. The national sugar sales rate was 65.22%, an increase of 12.97% [3]. Cotton Industry - **Futures and Spot Prices**: On May 19, the cotton 2509 contract was 13,390 yuan/ton, down 0.19%; the cotton 2601 contract was 13,445 yuan/ton, down 0.33%. The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 14,479 yuan/ton, up 0.07% [5]. - **Industry Data**: Commercial inventory decreased by 8.0% to 415.26 tons, and the textile industry's inventory decreased by 4.4% year - on - year [5]. Egg Industry - **Prices**: On May 19, the egg 09 contract was 3,788 yuan/500KG, down 0.18%; the egg 06 contract was 2,894 yuan/500KG, up 0.31%. The egg - producing area price was 3.28 yuan/jin, down 0.07% [8]. - **Related Data**: The price of laying - hen chicks was 4.15 yuan per bird, down 1.19%; the price of culled hens was 5.22 yuan/jin, down 0.57% [8]. Meal Industry - **Prices**: On May 19, the price of soybean meal in Jiangsu was 3,020 yuan/ton, down 0.98%; the price of rapeseed meal in Jiangsu was 2,450 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of Harbin soybeans was 3,980 yuan/ton, unchanged [10]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The warehouse receipts of soybean meal were 36,286, up 14.2%; rapeseed meal warehouse receipts were 31,068, down 0.67%; soybean warehouse receipts were 29,758, down 1.13% [10]. Pig Industry - **Futures and Spot Prices**: On May 19, the pig 2507 contract was 13,405 yuan/ton, down 0.67%; the pig 2509 contract was 13,660 yuan/ton, down 0.87%. The spot price in Henan was 14,980 yuan/ton, unchanged [13]. - **Industry Data**: The sample - point slaughter rate decreased by 0.32% to 146,383 heads; the self - breeding profit per pig decreased by 4.35% to 81 yuan; the number of fertile sows decreased by 0.66% to 4,039 million heads [13]. Corn Industry - **Futures and Spot Prices**: On May 19, the corn 2507 contract was 2,335 yuan/ton, down 0.30%; the corn starch 2507 contract was 2,685 yuan/ton, down 0.15%. The Jinzhou Port flat - hold price of corn was 2,320 yuan/ton, unchanged; the Changchun spot price of corn starch was 2,670 yuan/ton, unchanged [16]. - **Industry Data**: The number of remaining vehicles at Shandong deep - processing enterprises in the morning decreased by 6.46% to 884; the corn starch warehouse receipts increased by 24.58% to 26,620 [16].

现货价格及基差 品种 5月16日 5月15日 涨跌 涨跌幅 单位 云南国营全乳胶(SCRWF):上海 14950 15000 -50 -0.33% 全乳基差(切换至2509合约) 45 -90 135 150.00% 元/吨 泰标混合胶报价 14600 14800 -200 -1.35% 非标价差 -305 -290 -15 -5.17% 品种 5月16日 5月15日 涨跌幅 单位 涨跌 杯胶：国际市场：FOB中间价 54.20 54.15 0.05 0.09% 泰铢/公斤 胶水:国际市场:FOB中间价 62.25 61.75 0.50 0.81% 天然橡胶:胶块:西双版纳州 13500 13300 200 1.50% 天然橡胶：胶水：西双版纳州 13700 0.73% 13800 100 元/吨 原料：市场主流价：海南 13500 13500 0 0.00% 外胶原料：市场主流价：海南 9000 9000 0.00 0.00% 月间价差 合约 5月16日 5月15日 涨跌幅 单位 涨跌 9-1价差 -835 -820 -15 -1.83% 1-5价差 -170 1050 -1220 -116.19% 元/吨 ...

| 股指期货价差日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 | | | | | | | 2025年5月16日 | | | | 叶倩宁 | Z0016628 | | 价差 | 品种 | 最新值 | 较削一日变化 | 历史1年分位数 | 全历史分位数 | | | F期现价差 | -34.40 | 1.41 | 11.00% | 9.40% | | 期现价差 | H期现价差 | -17.30 | -1.11 | 15.90% | 10.80% | | | IC期现价差 | -92.30 | 9.02 | 6.90% | 4.10% | | | IM期现价差 | -108.04 | 9.33 | 90.00% | 7.00% | | | 次月-当月 | -35.40 | 0.20 | 2.40% | 9.20% | | | 委員-景月 | -100.00 | 1.60 | 1.20% | 7.10% | | | 远月-当月 | -137.00 | 2.60 | 1.20% | 9.70% | | F跨期 ...

| 玻璃纯碱期现日报 | | | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 [2011] 1292号 | 蒋诗语 Z00170002 2025年5月16日 | | 玻璃相关价格及价差 | | | 品种 | 现值 涨跌幅 单位 前值 狱跌 | | 华北报价 | 1210 1210 0 0.00% | | 华东报价 | 1340 1340 0 0.00% | | 华中报价 | 1150 1140 -10 -0.87% | | 华南报价 | 1320 1320 0 0.00% アレ/『モ | | 玻璃2505 | 1029 1042 -13 -1.25% | | 玻璃2509 | 1036 1046 -10 -0.96% | | 05基差 | 181 168 13 7.74% | | 纯碱相关价格及价差 | | | 品种 | 现值 前值 张跃 张跃幅 单位 | | 华北报价 | 1500 1500 0.0 0.00% | | 华东报价 | 1450 1450 0.0 0.00% | | 华中报价 | 1400 1400 0.0 0.00% | | 西北报价 | 1120 1100 20.0 1.82% ...

广发期货所有,未经广发期货书面授权,任何人不得对本报告进行任何形式的发布、复制。如引用 安户至上 知道图图 求实泰献 舞注明中外为"广发明密" | 油脂产业期现日报 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 壬泽辉 Z0019938 2025年5月16日 | | | | 更油 | | | | 2月15日 5月14日 涨跌 涨跌幅 | | | | 现价 江苏一级 8290 8360 -70 -0.84% | | | | 期价 Y2509 7950 8030 -80 -1.00% | | | | 甚差 Y2509 330 340 10 3.03% | | | | 现货墓差报价 江苏5月 09+380 09+400 -20 - | | | | 仓单 10870 10870 O 0.00% | | | | 棕榈油 | | | | 2月15日 5月14日 张跃 张跃幅 | | | | 现价 广东24度 8600 8800 -200 -2.27% 期价 P2509 8340 8450 -110 -1.30% | | | | 基差 P2509 260 350 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the industries are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The index has stable support below and significant upward breakthrough pressure. The short - term Treasury bonds may fluctuate, and the precious metals market has entered a volatile phase. The shipping index's upward momentum may slow down, and the steel and coal markets are facing price adjustments. The agricultural products market is affected by various factors such as policies and supply - demand relationships [2][3]. 3. Summary by Categories Financial Products - **Stock Index Futures**: The index has stable support below and large upward breakthrough pressure. It is recommended to sell put options at the support level to earn premiums or go long on the September IM contract at low prices and sell call options with a strike price of 6400 in September for a covered strategy [2]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Short - term Treasury bonds may be in a volatile state. It is advisable to wait and see, focusing on the capital market and economic data [2]. - **Precious Metals Futures**: Gold has formed a "double - top" pattern and entered a volatile phase. Selling out - of - the - money gold call options can be held. Silver follows gold's fluctuations and has support at $32 (8000 yuan) [2]. Commodity Futures - **Shipping Index Futures**: The emotional release is sufficient, and the upward momentum may slow down. Consider positive spreads for 8 - 10 and 6 - 10 contracts and wait and see for unilateral operations [2]. - **Steel Futures**: The spot market is stabilizing, and there are macro - level benefits. It is recommended to consider long - hot - rolled coil and short - coke or short - coking coal strategies [2]. - **Coal Futures**: Coke prices have entered a new round of price cuts, and coking coal prices may be bottom - hunting. It is recommended to go long on hot - rolled coil and short on coke or coking coal [2]. - **Chemical Futures**: Different chemical products have different trends. For example, PX and PTA have strong supply - demand drivers but limited oil price support. Short - fiber prices follow raw materials, and ethylene glycol has strong short - term support [3]. - **Agricultural Futures**: Different agricultural products are affected by different factors. For example, soybeans are affected by biodiesel policies, and sugar is affected by Brazilian data [3]. - **Non - ferrous Metals Futures**: Different non - ferrous metals have different price ranges and trends. For example, copper has strong upward pressure, and tin rebounds due to improved macro - sentiment [5]. - **Energy Futures**: Crude oil is affected by the progress of the US - Iran nuclear negotiation, and the short - term market is in a weak and volatile state [5].

| 品种/合约 | 现货价格 | 期货价格 | 基差 | 基差率 | 历史分位数 | 现货参考 | | 留注 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 硅铁 (SF507) | 5778 | 5660 | 118 | 2.08% | 74.60% | 折算价:72硅铁合格块:内蒙-天津仓单 | | | | 硅罐(SM509) | 5920 | 5876 | 44 | 0.75% | 33.00% | 折算价:6517硅锰:内蒙-湖北仓单 | | | | 螺纹钢 (RB2510) | 3240 | 3118 | 122 | 3.91% | 56.40% | HRB40020mm:上海 | | | | 热卷 (HC2510) | 3300 | 3260 | 40 | 1.23% | 36.20% | Q235B: 4.75mm: 上海 | | | | 铁矿石 (12509) | 809 | 737 | 73 | 9.90% | 55.70% | 折算价:62.5%巴混粉(BRBF):淡水河谷:日照港 | | | | 焦炭 (J2509) ...

1. Investment Rating The provided text does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - The A - share market is in a shrinking - volume oscillation at the upper pressure level. The futures of stock index, bonds, and precious metals have different trends affected by factors such as policies, economic data, and geopolitical situations. In the commodity market, different metals and agricultural products also show various trends based on supply - demand relationships, cost factors, and external policies [2][3][5][7] - The market sentiment of different varieties is affected by multiple factors, including domestic and foreign policies, economic data, and geopolitical situations. For example, the reduction of tariffs has a certain impact on the market, and the inflation and consumption data in the United States affect the expectations of the Fed's monetary policy [3][8][9] 3. Summary by Directory Financial Derivatives Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: The index is at the upper pressure level and enters a shrinking - volume oscillation. The A - share market declined on May 15, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.68%. The four major stock index futures contracts all declined, and the basis was in a state of backwardation. The current index has stable support below and large pressure to break through above. It is recommended to sell put options at the support level to earn premiums or go long on the September IM contract at low prices and sell call options with an exercise price of 6400 in September for a covered call strategy [2][3][4] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: After the reserve requirement ratio cut, the capital market is stable. Most treasury bond futures closed higher, but the yields of major interest - rate bonds in the inter - bank market rose. The capital market is affected by the supply of government bonds and remains stable. The short - term treasury bond futures may oscillate. It is recommended to wait and see, focusing on the capital market and economic data [5][6] Precious Metals - The weak inflation and consumption data in the United States boost the expectation of interest - rate cuts. Precious metals showed a V - shaped rebound after a sharp decline. Gold has long - term upward drivers, and the demand of global central banks and financial institutions for gold still supports the price. In the short term, the Fed's cautious attitude towards interest - rate cuts and the improvement of market expectations limit the upward space of gold prices. Silver follows the trend of gold, and its price is supported at $32. It is recommended to hold short - value gold call options [9][10] Container Shipping Index (European Line) - The futures market has released the upward sentiment caused by the tariff war. The subsequent market may adjust. It is necessary to pay close attention to the price changes in the spot market. It is expected to show an oscillating upward trend. It is recommended to consider the 6 - 10 and 8 - 10 positive spreads [12] Commodity Futures Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The spot trading is average. The "strong reality" of copper needs to be observed for its sustainability. The short - term price may oscillate. It is recommended to refer to the range of 77500 - 79500 [12][17] - **Zinc**: The easing of tariffs and mine disturbances boost the price, but the spot trading is average. The short - term price may oscillate. It is recommended to refer to the range of 21500 - 23500 [17][21] - **Tin**: The improvement of macro - sentiment drives the rebound of tin prices. It is recommended to try shorting in the range of 265000 - 270000, paying attention to the recovery rhythm of raw materials on the supply side [21][24] - **Nickel**: The macro - sentiment is improved, but the medium - term supply is still loose. The short - term macro situation is uncertain, and the fundamentals change little. It is expected to oscillate. It is recommended to refer to the range of 122000 - 128000 [25][27] - **Stainless Steel**: The macro - situation is improved, but the supply - demand contradiction still exists. It is expected to oscillate. It is recommended to refer to the range of 12600 - 13200 [28][30] - **Lithium Carbonate**: The short - term macro situation is improved, but the fundamentals are still weak. It is expected to run weakly in the short term. It is recommended to go short on rebounds, referring to the range of 62000 - 66000 [30][33] Black Metals - **Steel**: The spot price is stable, and the macro - level is favorable. The apparent demand is repaired, and the inventory is decreasing. The export order is improving after the tariff reduction. It is recommended to pay attention to the pressure range of the October contract for rebar (3200 - 3250) and hot - rolled coil (3300 - 3400) [35][36] - **Iron Ore**: The hot - metal output is at a high level and declining, and the port inventory is slightly decreasing. It is expected to oscillate in the short term, paying attention to the terminal demand and overseas mine shipments [37][40] - **Coke**: The mainstream steel mills have proposed to reduce the coke price. The supply is increasing, and the demand is slightly decreasing. It is recommended to hold the strategy of going long on hot - rolled coil and short on coke and pay attention to the signal of the coke price bottoming out [41][42] - **Coking Coal**: The market auction is weak again, and the inventory is at a high level. It is recommended to hold the strategy of going long on hot - rolled coil and short on coking coal and pay attention to the signal of the coal price bottoming out [43][45] - **Silicon Iron**: The production reduction range will expand, and the supply - demand relationship will improve marginally. It is expected that the price will stabilize and rebound [46][48] - **Manganese Silicon**: The production and demand are both decreasing, and the cost is stable. It is expected that the price will oscillate, stabilize, and rebound [49][52] Agricultural Products - **Meal**: The price of soybean meal in the domestic spot market has decreased. The uncertainty of the US bio - diesel obligation blending volume target drags down the price of US soybeans. The domestic supply is expected to continue to recover. It is recommended to pay attention to the performance of soybean meal around 2900 [53][56] - **Pigs**: The spot price is oscillating weakly. The supply of large - scale pig farms has limited room for weight reduction. It is necessary to pay attention to the performance of the second - fattening pigs' slaughter [57] - **Corn**: The spot price is stable, and the market is oscillating. The short - term market is stable, and the long - term trend is strong. It is recommended to go long on dips [58][60] - **Sugar**: The international raw sugar price is oscillating weakly, and the domestic sugar price follows. The Brazilian sugar production in the 25/26 season is expected to be abundant. The domestic sugar supply is expected to be loose, and the price is expected to oscillate in the range of 5800 - 5950 [61]