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《能源化工》日报-20250520
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-05-20 05:32
聚烯烃产业期现日报 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 2025年5月20日 张晓珍 Z0003135 PE PP价格及价差 | 品种 | 5月19日 | 5月16日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | L2505 收盘价 | 7330 | 7520 | -190 | -2.53% | | | L2509 收盘价 | 7238 | 7236 | 2 | 0.03% | | | PP2505 收盘价 | 7137 | 7248 | -111 | -1.53% | | | PP2509 收盘价 | 7078 | 7093 | -15 | -0.21% | | | L2505-2509 | 92 | 284 | -192 | -67.61% | | | PP2505-2509 | 59 | 155 | -96 | -61.94% | 元/吨 | | 华东PP拉丝现货 | 7160 | 7170 | -10 | -0.14% | | | 华北LLDPE膜料现货 | 7300 | 7300 | 0 | 0.00% | | | ...
《金融》日报-20250520
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-05-20 05:32
| 股指期货价差日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 | | | | | | | 2025年5月20日 | | | | 叶倩宁 | Z0016628 | | 价差 | 品种 | 最新值 | 较前一日变化 | 历史1年分位数 | 全历史分位数 | | | F期现价差 | -33.95 | 9.14 | 11.80% | 9.60% | | 期现价差 | H期现价差 | -16.29 | 5.17 | 16.80% | 11.80% | | | IC期现价差 | -97.79 | 16.25 | 7.30% | 3.60% | | | IM期现价差 | -119.94 | 14.38 | 80.00% | 6.20% | | | 次月-当月 | -40.00 | 0.60 | 1.20% | 7.10% | | | 季月-当月 | -68.60 | 38.20 | 7.30% | 15.00% | | | 远月-当月 | -109.60 | 35.60 | 7.30% | 15.90% | | ...
《农产品》日报-20250520
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-05-20 05:16
白糖产业期现日报 テ「发期货 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 2025年5月20日 刘珂 Z0016336 指标 现值 涨跌幅 单位 前值 涨跌 白糖2601 5718 5723 -5 -0.09% 元/吨 5853 白糖2509 5855 -2 -0.03% -135 -132 -3 -2.27% 白糖1-9价差 元/吨 主力合约持仓量 299940 301174 -1234 -0.41% 手 32836 32580 256 0.79% 仓单数量 张 有效预报 91 350 -259 -74.00% 现货市场价格 涨跌幅 单位 指标 现值 前值 涨跌 南宁 6145 6145 0 0.00% 昆明 5985 5985 0 0.00% 南宁县差 292 290 2 0.69% 昆明基差 132 130 2 1.54% 元/吨 进口糖:巴西(配额内) 4875 4954 -79 -1.59% 进口糖:巴西 (配额外) 6206 6309 -103 -1.63% -1270 #口巴西(配额内)与南宁价差 -1191 -79 -6.63% 进口巴西(配额外)与南宁价差 -103 -62.80% ...
股指期货持仓日度跟踪-20250520
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-05-20 02:38
股指期货持仓日度跟踪 投资咨询业务资格: 广发期货研究所 电 话:020-88830760 E-Mail:zhaoliang@gf.com.cn 目录: 股指期货: IF、IH、IC、IM | 品种 | | 主力合 约 | 总持仓点评 | 前二十席位重要变动 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪深 | 300 | IF2506 | 整体小幅下降 | 国泰君安多空头继续减仓 | | 上证 | 50 | IH2506 | 整体小幅下降 | 国君、海通多空头均减仓 | | 中证 | 500 | IC2506 | 总持仓上升 | 国君多头、中信空头增仓 | | 中证 | 1000 | IM2506 | 总持仓大幅上升 | 中信多空头均增仓 2000 手以上 | 股指期货持仓日度变动简评 2025 年 5 月 20 日星期二 证监许可【2011】1292 号 联系信息: 叶倩宁(投资咨询资格:Z0016628) 电话:020-88818051 邮箱:yeqianning@gf.com.cn -5,494.0 -3,346.0 2,238.0 3,626.0 -1,782.0 -3, ...
全品种价差日报-20250520
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-05-20 02:33
| 留注 | 品种/合约 | 现货价格 | 历史分位数 | 期货价格 | 星差 | 基差率 | 现货参考 | 折算价:72硅铁合格块:内蒙-天津仓单 | 硅铁 (SF507) | 88 | 5/78 | 1.55% | 70.40% | 5690 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 26 | 5870 | 折算价:6517硅锰:内蒙-湖北仓单 | 硅罐(SM509) | 5844 | 0.44% | 29.30% | 121 | 3190 | 螺纹钢(RB2510) | 3069 | 3.94% | 55.90% | HRB40020mm:上海 | | | | | | Q235B: 4.75mm: 上海 | 3280 | 73 | 2.28% | 热卷(HC2510) | 3207 | 48.90% | 铁矿石 (12509) | 75 | 723 | 折算价:62.5%巴混粉(BRBF):淡水河谷:日照港 ...
广发早知道:汇总版-20250520
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-05-20 02:20
广发早知道-汇总版 广发期货研究所 有色金属: 铜、锌、镍、不锈钢、锡、碳酸锂 黑色金属: 钢材、铁矿石、焦煤、焦炭、铁合金 农产品: 油脂、粕类、玉米、生猪、白糖、棉花、鸡蛋、花生、红枣、苹果 电 话:020-88830760 E-Mail:zhaoliang@gf.com.cn 目录: 金融衍生品: 金融期货: 股指期货、国债期货 贵金属: 黄金、白银 集运指数 商品期货: 能源化工: 原油、PTA、乙二醇、苯乙烯、短纤、尿素、瓶片、烧碱、PVC、LLDPE、 PP 特殊商品: 橡胶、玻璃纯碱、工业硅、多晶硅 2025 年 5 月 20 日星期二 投资咨询业务资格: 证监许可【2011】1292 号 组长联系信息: 张晓珍(投资咨询资格:Z0003135) 电话:020- 88818009 邮箱:zhangxiaozhen@gf.com.cn 刘珂(投资咨询资格:Z0016336) 电话:020-88818026 邮箱:qhliuke@gf.com.cn 叶倩宁(投资咨询资格:Z0016628) 电话:020- 88818017 邮箱:yeqianning@gf.com.cn 周敏波(投资咨询资格:Z00 ...
氯碱周报:SH:现货偏强,周度碱厂累库vv:关税释放利好,短期供需未见进一步矛盾下盘面反弹-20250520
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-05-20 00:05
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report - For caustic soda, in the short term, the supply pressure is limited during the concentrated maintenance period, and the demand from the alumina sector has improved. Supported by the fundamentals and positive macro - drivers from the easing of Sino - US tariffs, the spot price is strong. However, attention should be paid to the price acceptance of non - aluminum sectors and the valuation of caustic soda after the reduction of coal and electricity costs. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term, with the resistance level of the near - month contract at around 2550 [3]. - For PVC, stimulated by the progress of Sino - US tariff negotiations, the domestic commodity atmosphere is positive. In the short term, the supply - demand contradiction of PVC is limited due to concentrated maintenance, limited inventory pressure compared to the same period, and the expectation of rush exports of PVC products. But in the medium - to - long term, PVC still shows obvious over - supply pressure due to the lack of effective boost in the real estate market. It is recommended to wait and see, with the resistance level of the 09 contract at around 5150 [4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Caustic Soda - **Caustic Soda Futures and Spot**: The price of caustic soda has fluctuated due to various factors such as macro - policies, supply - demand changes, and alumina procurement prices. Recently, the easing of Sino - US tariff conflicts and the increase in alumina procurement willingness have led to a stronger market [7]. - **Caustic Soda Profit**: The current integrated profit is at a relatively high level in the same period of the past three years [13]. - **Caustic Soda Supply**: As of May 15, the national and Shandong regional weighted average operating rates decreased. In the second quarter, more maintenance is expected, and the operating rate will decline compared to the first quarter. The inventory has decreased from the high point, and the current supply - demand pressure is limited, supporting the increase in the spot price [24]. - **Caustic Soda Device Dynamics**: Many companies in different regions have carried out maintenance or production capacity adjustments, and there are also plans for new production capacity to be put into operation in 2025 [25]. - **Alumina**: From the end of 2024 to 2025, there are plans to put into operation 1230 million tons of alumina production capacity, with an estimated annual production capacity growth rate of around 10%. The new production lines stimulate the demand for caustic soda, and Shandong alumina plants have continuously raised the purchase price, supporting the spot price of caustic soda. However, the medium - term profit of alumina is still worrying [29][36]. - **Bauxite**: The price has declined, which may further drive down the price of alumina [37]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The weekly production remains at a high level [43]. - **Non - Aluminum Downstream**: The industry is fragmented, and the impact of tariffs needs to be monitored [47]. - **Caustic Soda Export**: The spot price has risen, and the estimated export profit compression window may close [54]. 3.2 Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC) - **PVC Futures and Spot**: The price of PVC has fluctuated due to factors such as energy - saving and carbon - reduction news, supply - demand changes, and macro - sentiment. Recently, the easing of Sino - US tariffs and the limited supply - demand contradiction during the concentrated maintenance period have led to a price rebound [61]. - **PVC Profit**: The overall industry profit is relatively low [67]. - **Calcium Carbide**: The supply - demand contradiction is prominent, the industry profit is under pressure, and the driving force for PVC is limited [72]. - **PVC Supply**: In April 2025, the production of PVC powder was 1.9264 million tons, and the cumulative production from January to April was 7.9262 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.1%. As of May 15, the overall operating rate of PVC powder decreased. The second quarter is the concentrated period of seasonal maintenance, and the operating rate will decline compared to the first quarter [83]. - **PVC Device Dynamics**: Many companies have carried out maintenance, and there are also plans for new production capacity to be put into operation in the future [84]. - **PVC Downstream Demand**: The two major downstream sectors of PVC, profiles and pipes, face great pressure. The real estate sector still has a negative impact on demand. The hard - product performance is average, and the soft - product performance is relatively better. The downstream orders are significantly lower than the same period in the past five years, and both raw material and finished - product inventories are at high levels [92]. - **Real Estate Data**: The new construction of real estate is still weak, and attention should be paid to whether housing prices can stabilize effectively [93]. - **PVC Inventory**: After the festival, the inventory continued to decline, and the pressure compared to the same period was limited [100]. - **PVC Outer Market**: As of May 15, the Asian PVC market price was stable on a weekly basis. India's high imports are expected to continue, which theoretically benefits China's exports. However, the long - term implementation of India's BIS and anti - dumping duties will have a negative impact on PVC [118]. - **PVC Import and Export**: The US tariff has an impact on the export of terminal products. The BIS extension in India may benefit exports in the short term, but long - term policies need further attention [118].
全品种价差日报-20250519
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-05-19 05:56
| 74 硅铁 (SF507) 5704 1.30% 68.70% 折算价:72硅铁合格块:内蒙-天津仓单 | 5778 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 硅罐(SM509) | 5920 | 5858 | 62 | 1.06% | 36.10% | 折算价:6517硅锰:内蒙-湖北仓单 | | | 螺纹钢(RB2510) | 3210 | 3082 | 128 | 4.15% | 58.40% | HRB40020mm:上海 | | | 热卷 (HC2510) | 3290 | 3226 | 64 | 1.98% | 45.40% | Q235B: 4.75mm: 上海 | | | 铁矿石 (12509) | 801 | 728 | 73 | 10.00% | 55.60% | 折算价:62.5%巴混粉(BRBF):淡水河谷:日照港 | | | 焦炭 (J2509) | 1440 | 1446 | -6 | -0.38% | 42.74% | 折算价:准一级冶金焦A13, S0.7,CSR60,MT7:日照港 ...
广发期货《有色》日报-20250519
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-05-19 05:51
1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Steel Industry - The steel industry presents a structure of high production, low inventory, weak cost support, and expected demand recovery. It is about to face the seasonal off - season and the possibility of weakening manufacturing demand (exports). The price is expected to oscillate at a low level, and it is recommended to wait and see for now [1]. Iron Ore Industry - This week, the daily average iron ore production has peaked and declined, while the port clearance volume has slightly increased. It is expected that the iron ore production will remain at a high level in the short term. The iron ore is slightly de - stocked under high iron ore production, and the steel mill inventory remains low. The terminal demand of finished products determines the sustainability of high - level iron ore production. It is expected that the iron ore will oscillate in the short term [4]. Silicon and Manganese Industry - For silicon iron, the daily production has declined, the supply pressure has been gradually relieved, and the factory inventory has gradually decreased, but the overall inventory is still at a medium - high level. For silicon manganese, the production is accelerating to decline, the supply and demand contradiction is limited, and the price is expected to oscillate, stabilize, and rebound [5]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry - The coke and coking coal futures showed a weak oscillating trend last week. The supply - demand pattern is still loose in the short term. It is recommended to short the 2509 contracts of coke and coking coal at high prices and continue to hold the arbitrage strategy of long hot - rolled coils and short coke/coking coal [6]. 3. Summary by Directory Steel Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of most steel products decreased. For example, the spot price of rebar in East China decreased by 30 yuan/ton, and the 10 - contract price decreased by 36 yuan/ton. The cost of some steel products decreased, and the profit of most steel products increased [1]. - **Production**: The daily average iron ore production remained unchanged at 245.6 tons, the production of five major steel products decreased by 5.8 tons (- 0.7%), the rebar production increased by 3.0 tons (1.3%), and the hot - rolled coil production decreased by 8.4 tons (- 2.6%) [1]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of five major steel products decreased by 45.4 tons (- 3.1%), the rebar inventory decreased by 33.8 tons (- 5.2%), and the hot - rolled coil inventory decreased by 17.6 tons (- 4.8%) [1]. - **Demand**: The daily average construction material trading volume decreased by 0.3 tons (- 3.1%), the apparent demand for five major steel products increased by 68.6 tons (8.1%), the apparent demand for rebar increased by 46.4 tons (21.7%), and the apparent demand for hot - rolled coils increased by 20.0 tons (6.5%) [1]. Iron Ore Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of most iron ore varieties decreased. For example, the warehouse - receipt cost of PB powder decreased by 8.8 yuan/ton (- 1.1%), and the spot price of PB powder at Rizhao Port decreased by 8.0 yuan/ton (- 1.0%). The basis of some varieties increased significantly [4]. - **Supply**: The 45 - port arrival volume decreased by 95.1 tons (- 3.9%), and the global shipment volume decreased by 21.5 tons (- 0.7%) [4]. - **Demand**: The daily average iron ore production of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.9 tons (- 0.4%), and the 45 - port daily average port clearance volume increased by 8.7 tons (2.8%) [4]. - **Inventory**: The 45 - port inventory decreased by 174.8 tons (- 1.2%), and the inventory of imported iron ore in 247 steel mills increased by 2.2 tons (0.0%) [4]. Silicon and Manganese Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese increased slightly. The closing price of the silicon iron main contract increased by 26.0 yuan/ton (0.5%), and the closing price of the silicon manganese main contract increased by 12.0 yuan/ton (0.2%) [5]. - **Cost and Profit**: The production cost of some regions remained stable, and the production profit of some regions increased or remained unchanged [5]. - **Supply**: The production of silicon iron decreased by 0.9 tons (- 5.4%), and the production of silicon manganese decreased by 0.9 tons (- 5.4%). The start - up rates of both decreased [5]. - **Demand**: The demand for silicon iron and silicon manganese remained relatively stable [5]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of 60 sample silicon iron enterprises decreased by 1.0 tons (- 11.8%), and the inventory of 63 sample silicon manganese enterprises increased by 2.5 tons (13.9%) [5]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of coke and coking coal decreased. For example, the price of first - class wet - quenched coke in Shanxi decreased by 50 yuan/ton (- 3.84%), and the price of coking coal (Shanxi warehouse - receipt) decreased by 20 yuan/ton (- 1.9%) [6]. - **Supply**: The coke production increased slightly, and the coking coal production remained at a relatively high level. The domestic coal mines continued to resume production, and the Mongolian customs clearance volume increased from a low level [6]. - **Demand**: The iron ore production showed signs of peaking and declining, and the downstream users' replenishment was mainly on - demand [6]. - **Inventory**: The coke inventory in coking plants continued to decline, the port inventory decreased slightly, and the steel mill inventory was low. The coking coal inventory in mines continued to accumulate, and the downstream inventory was at a low level [6].
原木期货日报-20250519
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-05-19 05:46
Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: Log Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: May 19, 2025 [1] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Group 3: Core View - After May, log demand will enter the traditional off - season, with expected reduced shipments in the coming weeks. New Zealand's shipments will seasonally decrease, and the current FOB price continues to decline. The fundamental weak - balance pattern persists. With a significant expected reduction in arrivals this week, the market is expected to fluctuate weakly [3][4] Group 4: Futures and Spot Prices - Futures prices of log contracts 2507, 2509, and 2511 decreased on May 16 compared to May 15, with declines of - 0.63%, - 0.44%, and - 0.50% respectively. The 7 - 9, 7 - 11 spreads decreased, while the 9 - 11 spread increased. The basis of 07, 09, and 11 contracts increased [2] - Spot prices of most radiation pine at ports remained unchanged on May 16, except for the price of spruce 11.8 at Rizhao Port, which increased by 4.72%. The FOB price of radiation pine 4 - meter medium A decreased by - 3.51%, while that of spruce 11.8 meters remained unchanged [2] - The RMB - US dollar exchange rate decreased slightly, and the import theoretical cost decreased by - 4% [2] Group 5: Supply - Monthly port shipments in April increased by 24.17% compared to March, reaching 200.3 million cubic meters. The number of ships at the port increased by 13.79% [2] - Weekly major port inventories decreased. As of April 25, the national inventory decreased by 2.28% to 351 million cubic meters, with decreases in Shandong and Jiangsu [3] Group 6: Demand - Weekly average daily log out - bound volume decreased. As of April 25, the national average daily out - bound volume decreased by 10% to 6.15 million cubic meters, with decreases in Shandong and Jiangsu [3]