1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views - **Copper**: The price of copper rebounded slightly yesterday. In the medium and long term, the supply - demand contradiction supports the upward shift of the bottom center of copper prices. The main contract is expected to be in the range of 85,500 - 87,500 yuan/ton. Pay attention to the marginal changes in demand and overseas liquidity [1]. - **Zinc**: The Shanghai zinc market oscillated at a high level yesterday. The supply - side pressure may be limited, and the demand is not outstanding. The LME zinc price has an upper limit, while the Shanghai zinc may be stronger than LME zinc, with the main contract reference range of 22,300 - 23,000 yuan/ton [3]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The spot price of industrial silicon is stable, and the futures price oscillates downward. The market still faces inventory accumulation pressure in November, but the pressure is reduced compared with October. It is expected to oscillate at a low level, with the main price range of 8,500 - 9,500 yuan/ton [4]. - **Polysilicon**: The spot price of polysilicon is stable, and the futures price oscillates downward. It is expected to oscillate in a high - level range. Pay attention to the support of the spot price, the establishment of platform companies, production control, and the increase in demand orders. The futures should focus on the support at 50,000 yuan/ton [5]. - **Tin**: The supply of tin ore is tight, and the demand is weak. The market sentiment has improved, and long positions can be held. If the supply from Myanmar recovers well, the tin price may weaken; otherwise, it is expected to continue to be strong [7]. - **Aluminum (Alumina)**: The alumina market oscillated at a low level yesterday. The supply pressure is high, and the cost support is weakening. It is expected to maintain a weak oscillation, with the main contract reference range of 2,750 - 2,900 yuan/ton [9]. - **Aluminum (Electrolytic Aluminum)**: The electrolytic aluminum market oscillated at a high level yesterday. The macro - drive is strong, but the fundamental support is weak. It is expected to fluctuate between event - driven and weak fundamentals, with the main contract range of 21,000 - 21,800 yuan/ton [9]. - **Nickel**: The Shanghai nickel market oscillated narrowly yesterday. The market is mixed with long and short factors. It is expected to oscillate in a range, with the main contract reference range of 118,000 - 124,000 yuan/ton. Pay attention to macro - expectations and Indonesian industrial policies [10]. - **Stainless Steel**: The stainless - steel market continued to weaken yesterday. The supply pressure remains, the demand is not boosted, and the social inventory is slowly decreasing. It is expected to continue to oscillate weakly, with the main contract range of 12,400 - 12,800 yuan/ton. Pay attention to macro - expectations and steel mill supply [12]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The lithium carbonate market was strong yesterday. The short - term fundamentals provide support, but the upward movement is mainly driven by funds. The main contract LC2601 is expected to oscillate and adjust. Pay attention to the marginal changes in demand after the peak season and the progress of large - factory复产 [14]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The casting aluminum alloy market oscillated strongly yesterday. With cost support and a tight supply - demand balance, the ADC12 price is expected to oscillate strongly, with the main contract range of 20,400 - 21,200 yuan/ton. Pay attention to the improvement of scrap aluminum supply, downstream procurement rhythm, and inventory reduction [16]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Copper - **Price and Basis**: The prices of various copper products increased slightly, with the SMM 1 electrolytic copper rising 0.27% to 86,765 yuan/ton. The refined - scrap price difference decreased by 0.97% to 3,367 yuan/ton [1]. - **Fundamentals**: In October, the electrolytic copper production decreased by 2.62% to 109.16 million tons, and in September, the import volume increased by 26.50% to 33.43 million tons. The domestic mainstream port copper concentrate inventory increased by 0.57% to 62.97 million tons [1]. Zinc - **Price and Spread**: The SMM 0 zinc ingot price rose 0.40% to 22,660 yuan/ton. The import loss increased to 4,958 yuan/ton [3]. - **Fundamentals**: In October, the refined zinc production increased by 2.85% to 61.72 million tons. The zinc ingot social inventory in seven regions decreased by 1.30% to 15.96 million tons [3]. Industrial Silicon - **Price and Basis**: The prices of different grades of industrial silicon were stable. The basis of some products increased, such as the basis of SI4210 increasing by 32.35% [4]. - **Fundamentals**: In November, the national industrial silicon production increased by 7.46% to 45.22 million tons, and the export volume decreased by 8.36% to 7.02 million tons [4]. Polysilicon - **Price and Spread**: The spot price of polysilicon was stable, and the futures price decreased by 3.33% to 51,930 yuan/ton. The silicon wafer price decreased significantly [5]. - **Fundamentals**: In the week, the silicon wafer production decreased by 5.55% to 13.45 GW, and the polysilicon production decreased by 4.26% to 2.70 million tons [5]. Tin - **Price and Basis**: The SMM 1 tin price rose 0.66% to 287,700 yuan/ton. The import loss decreased by 1.13% to 14,819.94 yuan/ton [7]. - **Fundamentals**: In September, the domestic tin ore import decreased by 15.13% to 8,714 tons, and in October, the SMM refined tin production increased by 53.09% to 16,090 tons [7]. Aluminum (Alumina) - **Price and Spread**: The average price of alumina in Shandong increased by 0.36% to 2,795 yuan/ton. The import loss increased to 2,320 yuan/ton [9]. - **Fundamentals**: In October, the alumina production increased by 2.39% to 778.53 million tons [9]. Aluminum (Electrolytic Aluminum) - **Price and Spread**: The SMM A00 aluminum price rose 0.60% to 21,620 yuan/ton. The import loss increased slightly [9]. - **Fundamentals**: In October, the electrolytic aluminum production increased by 3.52% to 374.21 million tons, and the import volume increased by 13.57% to 24.68 million tons [9]. Nickel - **Price and Basis**: The SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price rose 0.08% to 121,300 yuan/ton. The futures import loss increased by 1.86% to 1,859 yuan/ton [10]. - **Fundamentals**: The Chinese refined nickel production increased by 0.84% to 35,900 tons, and the import volume increased by 124.36% to 38,164 tons [10]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Basis**: The price of 304/2B stainless - steel coils decreased. The price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron decreased by 0.27% to 912 yuan/nickel point [12]. - **Fundamentals**: The production of 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel in China increased by 0.38% to 182.17 million tons. The social inventory of 300 - series decreased slightly [12]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Basis**: The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate price rose 1.92% to 82,300 yuan/ton. The basis decreased by 858.62% [14]. - **Fundamentals**: In October, the lithium carbonate production increased by 5.73% to 92,260 tons, and the total inventory decreased by 10.90% to 84,234 tons [14]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Spread**: The SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price rose 0.23% to 21,500 yuan/ton. The scrap - refined price difference of some products changed [16]. - **Fundamentals**: In October, the regenerated aluminum alloy ingot production decreased by 2.42% to 64.50 million tons, and the social inventory increased by 1.82% to 5.58 million tons [16].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Copper - The price of copper rebounded slightly yesterday. In the medium - long term, the supply - demand contradiction supports the upward shift of the bottom center of copper prices. The main contract is expected to trade between 85,500 - 87,500 yuan/ton, and future attention should be paid to demand - side marginal changes and overseas liquidity [1]. Zinc - The Shanghai zinc futures oscillated at a high level yesterday. The supply - side pressure may be limited in the future, and the demand side has no outstanding performance. The LME zinc has upward pressure, while the export of zinc ingots may boost domestic zinc prices. The main contract is expected to trade between 22,300 - 23,000 yuan/ton [3]. Industrial Silicon - The spot price of industrial silicon stabilized, while the futures price oscillated downward. In November, the market still faces inventory accumulation pressure, but it is less than that in October. The price is expected to oscillate at a low level, mainly in the range of 8,500 - 9,500 yuan/ton [4]. Polysilicon - The spot price of polysilicon stabilized, the component quotation increased, but the silicon wafer price dropped significantly, and the futures price oscillated downward. The market is expected to oscillate at a high level, and attention should be paid to the spot support strength, platform company establishment, production control, and demand - side order increase [5]. Tin - The supply of tin ore remains tight, and the demand shows no obvious improvement. The market sentiment has improved, and long positions should be held. If the supply in Myanmar recovers smoothly, the tin price may weaken; otherwise, it is expected to continue to run strongly [7]. Alumina - The alumina futures oscillated at a low level yesterday. The supply pressure is high, and the cost support is gradually shifting down. The price is expected to continue to oscillate weakly, with the main contract reference range of 2,750 - 2,900 yuan/ton [9]. Electrolytic Aluminum - The electrolytic aluminum futures continued to oscillate at a high level yesterday. The market shows a pattern of strong macro - drive and weak fundamental support. The price is expected to fluctuate between 21,000 - 21,800 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to LME warehouse receipt flow, domestic inventory changes, and overseas macro - trends [9]. Nickel - The Shanghai nickel futures oscillated narrowly yesterday. The market is mixed with long and short factors. The price is expected to oscillate in a range, with the main contract reference range of 118,000 - 124,000 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to macro - expectations and Indonesian industrial policies [10]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel futures continued to weaken yesterday. The policy and macro - drive are gradually weakening, and the fundamentals have not improved significantly. The price is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 12,400 - 12,800 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to macro - expectations and steel mill supply [12]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate futures ran strongly yesterday. The short - term fundamentals provide support for the price, but the upward movement of the futures is mainly driven by funds. The futures may oscillate and adjust in the short term, and attention should be paid to the end - of - year resumption of large factories and downstream marginal changes [14]. Aluminum Alloy - The cast aluminum alloy market oscillated strongly yesterday. Supported by cost and with a tight supply - demand balance, the ADC12 price is expected to oscillate strongly, with the main contract reference range of 20,400 - 21,200 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to scrap aluminum supply, downstream procurement, and inventory reduction [16]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Price and Basis - **Copper**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price was 86,765 yuan/ton, up 0.27% from the previous day. The spot - futures basis and other price - related indicators showed different changes [1]. - **Zinc**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price was 22,660 yuan/ton, up 0.40% from the previous day. The import profit and loss, month - to - month spread, etc. also changed [3]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The price of East China oxygen - passing S15530 industrial silicon remained unchanged at 9,500 yuan/ton, and the basis increased by 52.38% [4]. - **Polysilicon**: The average price of N - type re - feeding material remained at 52,200 yuan/kg, and the main futures contract dropped 3.33% to 51,930 yuan/ton [5]. - **Tin**: SMM 1 tin price was 287,700 yuan/ton, up 0.66% from the previous day. The LME 0 - 3 premium increased by 11.10% [7]. - **Aluminum**: SMM A00 aluminum price was 21,620 yuan/ton, up 0.60% from the previous day. The import profit and loss and month - to - month spread changed accordingly [9]. - **Nickel**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price was 121,300 yuan/ton, up 0.08% from the previous day. The LME 0 - 3 decreased by 2.68% [10]. - **Stainless Steel**: The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) was 12,750 yuan/ton, down 0.39% from the previous day. The spot - futures spread increased by 24.66% [12]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price was 82,300 yuan/ton, up 1.92% from the previous day. The basis decreased by 858.62% [14]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price was 21,500 yuan/ton, up 0.23% from the previous day. The month - to - month spread and other indicators changed [16]. Fundamental Data Production and Import/Export - **Copper**: In October, the electrolytic copper production was 109.16 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.62%. In September, the import volume was 33.43 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 26.50% [1]. - **Zinc**: In October, the refined zinc production was 61.72 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.85%. In September, the import volume was 2.27 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 11.61% [3]. - **Industrial Silicon**: In October, the national industrial silicon production was 45.22 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.46%. The export volume in October was 7.02 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 8.36% [4]. - **Polysilicon**: In October, the polysilicon production was 13.40 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.08%. In September, the import volume was 0.13 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 28.46% [5]. - **Tin**: In September, the tin ore import was 8,714 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 15.13%. In October, the SMM refined tin production was 16,090 tons, a month - on - month increase of 53.09% [7]. - **Aluminum**: In October, the alumina production was 778.53 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.39%. The electrolytic aluminum production was 374.21 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.52% [9]. - **Nickel**: In October, the Chinese refined nickel production was 35,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.84%. The import volume was 38,164 tons, a month - on - month increase of 124.36% [10]. - **Stainless Steel**: In October, the production of Chinese 300 - series stainless steel crude steel (43 manufacturers) was 182.17 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.38%. The import volume was 12.03 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.70% [12]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: In October, the lithium carbonate production was 92,260 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.73%. The import volume in September was 19,597 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10.30% [14]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: In October, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 64.50 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.42%. The production of primary aluminum alloy ingots was 28.60 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.06% [16]. Operating Rates - **Copper**: The electrolytic copper rod operating rate was 61.97%, up 1.54 percentage points from the previous week [1]. - **Zinc**: The galvanizing operating rate was 55.13%, down 2.41 percentage points from the previous week [3]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The national operating rate was 68.12%, up 6.18 percentage points from the previous month [4]. - **Tin**: The SMM refined tin average operating rate in September was 43.60%, down 20.3 percentage points from the previous month [7]. - **Aluminum**: The aluminum profile operating rate was 52.60%, down 0.9 percentage points from the previous week [9]. - **Nickel**: There is no significant information about the operating rate in the nickel report. - **Stainless Steel**: There is no significant information about the operating rate in the stainless - steel report. - **Lithium Carbonate**: In October, the lithium carbonate operating rate was 56%, up 1.82 percentage points from the previous month [14]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The recycled aluminum alloy operating rate was 55.84%, down 1.7 percentage points from the previous week [16]. Inventory - **Copper**: The domestic social inventory was 19.59 million tons, down 2.10% from the previous week; the SHFE inventory was 11.50 million tons, down 0.95% from the previous week [1]. - **Zinc**: The seven - region social inventory of Chinese zinc ingots was 15.96 million tons, down 1.30% from the previous week; the LME inventory remained unchanged at 3.5 million tons [3]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The Xinjiang inventory was 11.21 million tons, up 3.70% from the previous week; the social inventory was 55.20 million tons, down 1.08% from the previous week [4]. - **Polysilicon**: The polysilicon inventory was 25.90 million tons, down 0.77% from the previous week; the silicon wafer inventory was 17.52 million tons, down 7.45% from the previous week [5]. - **Tin**: The SHEF inventory was 5,992 tons, up 1.23% from the previous week; the social inventory was 7,033 tons, up 5.22% from the previous week [7]. - **Aluminum**: The social inventory of Chinese electrolytic aluminum remained unchanged at 62.70 million tons; the LME inventory was 54.5 million tons, down 0.37% from the previous day [9]. - **Nickel**: The SHFE inventory was 37,187 tons, up 1.19% from the previous week; the social inventory was 49,133 tons, up 2.14% from the previous week [10]. - **Stainless Steel**: The 300 - series social inventory (Wuxi + Foshan) was 48.89 million tons, down 0.65% from the previous week; the SHFE warehouse receipt was 7.17 million tons, down 0.41% from the previous day [12]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: In October, the total lithium carbonate inventory was 84,234 tons, down 10.90% from the previous month; the downstream inventory was 53,291 tons, down 13.50% from the previous month [14]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The weekly social inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 5.58 million tons, up 1.82% from the previous week [16].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views Fats and Oils - Palm oil: After the release of the MPOB supply - demand report's inventory growth risk, the futures price is in a volatile rebound and is expected to strengthen to the 4200 - 4250 ringgit range in Malaysia and 8900 yuan in the domestic Dalian market [1]. - Soybean oil: The EPA's approval of small refinery exemptions increases the uncertainty of renewable fuels, pressuring CBOT soybean oil. Domestic spot basis quotes are expected to fluctuate narrowly [1]. Sugar - International: The end of the US government shutdown warms the macro - market, but the supply is expected to be loose, and the raw sugar price is in a weak and volatile trend. - Domestic: Constrained by import quotas, the price follows the decline less significantly. The new sugar season in Guangxi is expected to start late, and the price is expected to fluctuate [3][4]. Corn - The corn price is stable with a slight upward trend. The supply pressure still exists in November, but there is cost and storage policy support. The short - term price is affected by demand from different industries [5]. Cotton - US cotton: The listing inspection is progressing steadily, but due to global high yields, it maintains a low - level volatile trend. - Domestic cotton: There is hedging pressure, but also cost support. The downstream demand is weak, and the short - term price is expected to fluctuate within a range [8]. Meal - The market is waiting for the USDA report. The US soybean support is strengthening, but the 13% tariff on US soybeans in China affects exports. Domestic soybean inventory is high, and soybean meal is expected to be in a wide - range shock [11]. Pork - The spot price is weak, and the overall supply is normal. The slowdown of the November planned slaughter may boost the price. The price is in a range - bound pattern, and the 3 - 7 reverse spread can be held, with a cautiously bullish view on the single - side [14]. Eggs - The supply of eggs is under pressure, and the demand is stable. The egg price is expected to fluctuate widely at the bottom. Short - sell the December contract and pay attention to the 3400 resistance of the January contract [18]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fats and Oils - **Price Changes**: - Soybean oil: The spot price in Jiangsu increased by 1.18% to 8550 yuan/ton, and the futures price Y2601 increased by 0.12% to 8238 yuan/ton. - Palm oil: The spot price in Guangdong increased by 0.58% to 8610 yuan/ton, and the futures price P2601 increased by 0.92% to 8770 yuan/ton. - Rapeseed oil: The spot price in Jiangsu increased by 2.03% to 10030 yuan/ton, and the futures price OI601 increased by 1.96% to 9775 yuan/ton [1]. - **Spread Changes**: - Soybean oil inter - period spread 01 - 05 decreased by 7.83% to 212. - Palm oil inter - period spread 01 - 05 increased by 17.65% to - 84. - Rapeseed oil inter - period spread 01 - 05 increased by 3.15% to 426 [1]. Sugar - **Futures Market**: - The price of SR2601 increased by 0.09% to 5480 yuan/ton, and SR2605 increased by 0.11% to 5411 yuan/ton. - The ICE raw sugar main contract increased by 0.14% to 14.28 cents/lb [3]. - **Spot Market**: - The price in Nanning remained unchanged at 5780 yuan/ton, and in Kunming at 5650 yuan/ton. - The Nanning basis decreased by 1.60% to 369 yuan/ton, and the Kunming basis decreased by 2.45% to 239 yuan/ton [3]. - **Industry Situation**: - National sugar production increased by 12.03% to 1116.21 million tons, and sales increased by 9.17% to 1048 million tons. - Guangxi's sugar production increased by 4.59% to 646.50 million tons, and monthly sales decreased by 41.20% to 26.66 million tons [3]. Corn - **Price Changes**: - The price of C2601 increased by 0.60% to 2177 yuan/ton, and the Jinzhou Port FAS price increased by 0.46% to 2180 yuan/ton. - The Shekou bulk grain price increased by 1.32% to 2300 yuan/ton [5]. - **Profit and Spread**: - The north - south trade profit increased by 222.22% to 29 yuan/ton, and the import profit increased by 13.30% to 264 yuan/ton. - The corn 1 - 5 spread increased by 10.47% to - 77 [5]. Cotton - **Futures Market**: - The price of CF2605 decreased by 0.15% to 13560 yuan/ton, and CF2601 decreased by 0.15% to 13560 yuan/ton. - The ICE US cotton main contract decreased by 0.64% to 63.93 cents/lb [8]. - **Spot Market**: - The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B decreased by 0.02% to 14668 yuan/ton, and the CC Index 3128B decreased by 0.01% to 14842 yuan/ton [8]. - **Industry Situation**: - Commercial inventory increased by 70.4% to 293.06 million tons, and industrial inventory increased by 9.7% to 88.82 million tons. - The import volume increased by 42.9% to 10 million tons [8]. Meal - **Price Changes**: - The price of soybean meal in Jiangsu remained unchanged at 3060 yuan/ton, and the futures price M2601 decreased by 0.29% to 3054 yuan/ton. - The price of rapeseed meal in Jiangsu remained unchanged at 2530 yuan/ton, and the futures price RM2601 decreased by 1.07% to 2500 yuan/ton [11]. - **Spread Changes**: - The soybean meal inter - period spread 01 - 05 decreased by 6.84% to 218, and the rapeseed meal inter - period spread 01 - 05 decreased by 20.20% to 79 [11]. Pork - **Futures Market**: - The price of LH2605 decreased by 0.04% to 12065 yuan/ton, and LH2601 decreased by 1.67% to 11755 yuan/ton. - The 1 - 5 spread decreased by 169.57% to - 310 [14]. - **Spot Market**: - The spot price in Henan decreased by 200 yuan/ton to 11850 yuan/ton, and in Shandong decreased by 120 yuan/ton to 12080 yuan/ton [14]. - **Industry Indicators**: - The daily slaughter volume decreased by 0.45% to 162448, and the weekly white - strip price remained unchanged at 18.70 yuan/kg [14]. Eggs - **Futures Market**: - The price of the December egg contract decreased by 0.76% to 3152 yuan/500KG, and the January contract decreased by 0.30% to 3373 yuan/500KG [18]. - **Spot Market**: - The egg - producing area price decreased by 1.32% to 3.01 yuan/jin, and the egg - to - feed ratio decreased by 1.68% to 2.34 [18]. - **Industry Situation**: - The egg - laying hen inventory is expected to be stable in November, and the supply pressure remains [18].

Group 1: Steel Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - Yesterday, steel and iron ore showed relatively strong trends, while coking coal declined significantly due to the "supply guarantee" expectation. Considering the high steel inventory and winter storage pressure, the molten iron of steel mills in the January contract is likely to fall rather than rise. The iron ore port inventory continues to accumulate, and the supply of iron elements in the January contract is turning loose, with a negative feedback basis in the iron element chain. The main interference later lies in the winter iron ore replenishment of steel mills. The long coking coal and short hot-rolled coil arbitrage was affected by the decline of coking coal. Considering the inventory differentiation between the two, this arbitrage logic will continue in the near term and can be held. For single-side trading, it is advisable to wait and see, and pay attention to the support levels of 3000 for rebar and 3200 for hot-rolled coil [1]. Summary by Directory - **Steel Prices and Spreads**: The spot prices of rebar in East China, North China, and South China were 3190 yuan/ton, 3210 yuan/ton, and 3270 yuan/ton respectively, with price changes of 0, 10, and 10 yuan/ton. The prices of rebar 05, 10, and 01 contracts were 3089 yuan/ton, 3133 yuan/ton, and 3055 yuan/ton respectively, with price changes of -13, -3, and -19 yuan/ton. The spot prices of hot-rolled coil in East China, North China, and South China were 3260 yuan/ton, 3190 yuan/ton, and 3270 yuan/ton respectively, with price changes of -10, 0, and 10 yuan/ton. The prices of hot-rolled coil 05, 10, and 01 contracts were 3253 yuan/ton, 3274 yuan/ton, and 3242 yuan/ton respectively, with price changes of -10, -9, and -10 yuan/ton [1]. - **Cost and Profit**: The billet price was 2930 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton, and the slab price was 3730 yuan/ton, unchanged. The profits of East China hot-rolled coil, North China hot-rolled coil, and South China hot-rolled coil were -30, -110, and -40 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of -3, -3, and -13 yuan/ton. The profits of East China rebar, North China rebar, and South China rebar were -110, -100, and -10 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of -3, 7, and 7 yuan/ton [1]. - **Production Indicators**: The daily average molten iron output was 234.2 tons, a decrease of 2.1 tons or -0.9%. The output of five major steel products was 856.7 tons, a decrease of 18.5 tons or -2.1%. The rebar output was 208.5 tons, a decrease of 4.1 tons or -1.9%, including an electric furnace output of 29.3 tons, a decrease of 0.3 tons or -0.9%, and a converter output of 179.3 tons, a decrease of 3.8 tons or -2.1%. The hot-rolled coil output was 318.2 tons, a decrease of 5.4 tons or -1.7% [1]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of five major steel products was 1503.6 tons, a decrease of 10.2 tons or -0.7%. The rebar inventory was 592.5 tons, a decrease of 10 tons or -1.7%. The hot-rolled coil inventory was 410.5 tons, an increase of 3.9 tons or 0.9% [1]. - **Trading and Demand**: The building materials trading volume was 91 tons, a decrease of 17 tons or -15.6%. The apparent demand for five major steel products was 866.9 tons, a decrease of 49.5 tons or -5.4%. The apparent demand for rebar was 218.5 tons, a decrease of 13.7 tons or -5.9%. The apparent demand for hot-rolled coil was 314.3 tons, a decrease of 17.6 tons or -5.3% [1]. Group 2: Iron Ore Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - Last night, iron ore strengthened and the basis narrowed. On the supply side, the global iron ore shipment volume decreased this week, and the arrival volume at 45 ports declined. Based on recent shipment data, the subsequent average arrival volume is expected to increase. On the demand side, the steel mill profit margin has dropped significantly, the molten iron output has declined from a high level, and the steel mill replenishment demand has weakened. In terms of inventory, the port inventory is accumulating, and the port clearance volume has increased slightly. If the steel mill losses continue to intensify and the finished product destocking fails to meet expectations, the iron ore price will hit a new low. However, given the current profit rate and inventory level of steel mills, the probability of negative feedback in molten iron is relatively low. The Rio Tinto Q3 report shows that the overall commissioning progress of the Simandou project is faster than expected, and it is expected to complete the first batch of iron ore shipments to the port in October, about one month earlier than the original plan. For the arbitrage strategy of long coking coal and short iron ore, due to the significant decline of coking coal, considering the large discount of iron ore, partial profit-taking can be considered. Wait for the coking coal to stabilize before paying attention to this arbitrage again [4]. Summary by Directory - **Iron Ore - Related Prices and Spreads**: The warehouse receipt costs of Carajás fines, PB fines, Brazilian blended fines, and Jinbuba fines were 836.3 yuan/ton, 852.4 yuan/ton, 864.2 yuan/ton, and 846.7 yuan/ton respectively, with price changes of -7.7, -2.2, -2.2, and -3.2 yuan/ton. The 01 contract basis for Carajás fines, PB fines, Brazilian blended fines, and Jinbuba fines were 36.3 yuan/ton, 52.4 yuan/ton, 64.2 yuan/ton, and 46.7 yuan/ton respectively, with price changes of -5.2, 0.3, 0.3, and -0.7 yuan/ton. The 5 - 9 spread was 21.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.5 yuan/ton or 2.4%. The 9 - 1 spread was -45.0 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.0 yuan/ton or -2.3%. The 1 - 5 spread was 23.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.5 yuan/ton or 2.2% [4]. - **Spot Prices and Price Indexes**: The spot prices of Carajás fines, PB fines, Brazilian blended fines, and Jinbuba fines at Rizhao Port were 876.0 yuan/ton, 775.0 yuan/ton, 814.0 yuan/ton, and 718.0 yuan/ton respectively, with price changes of -2.0, 0, -2.0, and 0 yuan/ton. The prices of the Singapore Exchange 62% Fe swap and the Platts 62% Fe index were 102.8 dollars/ton and 107.7 dollars/ton respectively, with price changes of -0.5 and -0.7 dollars/ton [4]. - **Supply Indicators**: The weekly arrival volume at 45 ports was 2741.2 tons, a decrease of 477.2 tons or -14.8%. The weekly global shipment volume was 3069.0 tons, a decrease of 144.8 tons or -4.5%. The monthly national import volume was 11632.6 tons, an increase of 111.6 tons or 10.6% [4]. - **Demand Indicators**: The weekly average daily molten iron output of 247 steel mills was 234.2 tons, a decrease of 2.1 tons or -0.9%. The weekly average daily port clearance volume at 45 ports was 320.9 tons, an increase of 0.8 tons or 0.2%. The monthly national pig iron output was 6604.6 tons, a decrease of 374.7 tons or -5.4%. The monthly national crude steel output was 7349.0 tons, a decrease of 387.8 tons or -5.0% [4]. - **Inventory Changes**: The weekly inventory at 45 ports increased by 229.4 tons or 1.5% compared to Monday, reaching 15128.19 tons. The weekly imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel mills was 6.6006 tons, an increase of 160.1 tons or 1.8%. The weekly inventory available days of 64 steel mills was 21.0 days, unchanged [4]. Group 3: Coke and Coking Coal Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - **Coke**: Yesterday, the coke futures showed a weak downward trend. Recently, the spot and futures markets have not been in sync. The port trade quotes have followed the futures down. The third round of price increase by mainstream coking enterprises has been implemented, and the fourth round of price increase has been initiated but not yet landed. On the supply side, the coking coal prices in the Shanxi market are strong, providing cost support for coke. However, coking enterprises still face losses after price increases, and their开工 rate has declined. On the demand side, environmental protection restrictions in Tangshan and Shanxi have led to a significant decline in steel mill molten iron output, suppressing the price increase of coke. In terms of inventory, the inventories of coking plants, ports, and steel mills have all decreased slightly, and the overall inventory is slightly lower in the middle range. Coke supply and demand are tight, and downstream enterprises are destocking passively. Although the Mongolian coal quotes have followed the futures down and the Shanxi auctions have become mixed, the coking coal prices are still firm, and coke still has the expectation of a price increase. For the strategy, take a wait - and - see attitude towards single - side trading, with the reference range of 1650 - 1780. It is recommended to carry out a long 01 and short 05 arbitrage for coke, and guard against the negative feedback risk caused by the decline in steel prices [7]. - **Coking Coal**: Yesterday, the coking coal futures showed a weak downward trend, with a certain divergence between the spot and futures markets. The Shanxi spot auction prices are running strongly, while the Mongolian coal quotes have followed the futures down. The thermal coal market has been rising recently, and the overall coal spot market is in a tight situation. On the supply side, some shut - down coal mines in Shanxi and Inner Mongolia have started to resume production, and the Mongolian coal customs clearance has increased significantly since November, with the port inventory rising from a low level. On the demand side, the decline in profits and environmental protection restrictions have led to a significant decline in molten iron output, a slight decline in coking plant开工, and a weakening of steel mill replenishment demand. In terms of inventory, coal mines and steel mills are destocking, while coking plants, coal washing plants, ports, and terminals are accumulating inventory, and the overall inventory is slightly higher in the middle range. The downstream is actively replenishing inventory. For the strategy, take a wait - and - see attitude towards single - side trading, with the reference range of 1170 - 1290. It is recommended to carry out a long 01 and short 05 arbitrage for coking coal, and guard against the negative feedback risk caused by the decline in steel prices [7]. Summary by Directory - **Coke - Related Prices and Spreads**: The prices of Shanxi quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke (warehouse receipt) and Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke (warehouse receipt) were 1662 yuan/ton and 1689 yuan/ton respectively, unchanged. The prices of the coke 01 and 05 contracts were 1685 yuan/ton and 1831 yuan/ton respectively, with price changes of -59 and -46 yuan/ton. The 01 basis was 4 yuan/ton, and the 05 basis was -142 yuan/ton. The J01 - J05 spread was -146 yuan/ton, a decrease of 13 yuan/ton. The weekly coking profit of Mysteel was -54 yuan/ton, a decrease of 11 yuan/ton [7]. - **Coking Coal - Related Prices and Spreads**: The prices of Shanxi medium - sulfur primary coking coal (warehouse receipt) and Mongolian 5 raw coal (warehouse receipt) were 1420 yuan/ton and 1331 yuan/ton respectively, with price changes of 0 and -33 yuan/ton. The prices of the coking coal 01 and 05 contracts were 1213 yuan/ton and 1272 yuan/ton respectively, with price changes of -53 and -31 yuan/ton. The 01 basis was 118 yuan/ton, and the 05 basis was 61 yuan/ton. The JM01 - JM05 spread was -59 yuan/ton, a decrease of 22 yuan/ton. The weekly profit of sample coal mines was 34 yuan/ton, an increase of 6.4% [7]. - **Upstream Coking Coal Prices and Spreads**: The price of coking coal (Shanxi warehouse receipt) was 1420 yuan/ton, unchanged [7]. - **Overseas Coal Prices**: The arrival price of Australian Peak Downs coal was 213 dollars/ton, an increase of 0.5 dollars/ton or 0.2%. The ex - warehouse price of Australian primary coking coal at Jingtang Port was 1600 yuan/ton, a decrease of 40 yuan/ton or -2.4%. The ex - warehouse price of Australian thermal coal at Guangzhou Port was 882 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.4 yuan/ton or 0.3% [7]. - **Supply Indicators**: The weekly average daily coke output of all - sample coking plants was 63.6 tons, a decrease of 1.0 ton or -1.5%. The weekly average daily coke output of 247 steel mills was 46.1 tons, a decrease of 0.1 ton or -0.3%. The weekly average daily molten iron output of 247 steel mills was 234.2 tons, a decrease of 2.1 tons or -0.9% [7]. - **Inventory Changes**: The total coke inventory was 887.1 tons, a decrease of 13.0 tons or -1.4%. The coke inventory of all - sample coking plants was 58.3 tons, a decrease of 1.6 tons or -2.6%. The coke inventory of 247 steel mills was 626.6 tons, a decrease of 2.4 tons or -0.4%. The port inventory was 202.1 tons, a decrease of 9.0 tons or -4.3%. The coking coal inventory of Fenwei coal mines was 80.4 tons, a decrease of 0.8 tons or -0.9%. The coking coal inventory of all - sample coking plants was 1070.0 tons, an increase of 17.5 tons or 1.7%. The coking coal inventory of 247 steel mills was 787.3 tons, a decrease of 9.0 tons or -1.1%. The port inventory was 304.3 tons, an increase of 14.1 tons or 4.9% [7]. - **Coke Supply - Demand Gap Changes**: The calculated coke supply - demand gap was -3.7 tons, a decrease of 0.1 tons or -2.2% [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The US dollar index has strengthened recently, suppressing the performance of risk assets, but domestic stock indices are resilient and continue to reduce volatility while waiting for stabilization [3]. - The 10 - year Treasury bond active bond 250016.IB may fluctuate between 1.75% - 1.82%, and with the restart of central bank Treasury bond trading and a loose monetary policy orientation, the top of interest rates and the bottom of Treasury bond futures are more solid [3]. - The buying power of gold and silver has increased, and their price centers are expected to continue to rise [3]. - Various commodities have different trends, and corresponding investment strategies are proposed for each commodity, such as buying on dips, holding long - positions, or conducting arbitrage operations [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial - **Stock Index Futures**: A - shares are in a re - pricing adjustment after the release of the third - quarter reports, with narrow - range callbacks and rebounds in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see mainly. In case of a deep one - day decline, a bullish put - option spread can be arranged [3]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The 10 - year Treasury bond active bond 250016.IB may fluctuate in the range of 1.75% - 1.82%. It is recommended to go long on dips in the unilateral strategy and pay attention to the positive arbitrage strategy due to the rising IRR [3]. - **Precious Metals**: The buying power of gold and silver has increased. Gold resistance is around $4190 (956 yuan), and it can be bought on dips below $4100 (936 yuan). Silver may rise to $52 (12000 yuan), and long - call options can be held [3]. - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: The main contract is in a short - term shock, and it is recommended to buy on dips for the December contract [3]. Black - **Steel**: It is recommended to hold the arbitrage of going long on coking coal and short on hot - rolled coils, and take a wait - and - see attitude for single - side operations [3]. - **Iron Ore**: It is recommended to take a wait - and - see attitude for single - side operations, with a reference range of 750 - 800, and an arbitrage of going long on coking coal and short on iron ore is recommended [3]. - **Coking Coal**: It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1170 - 1290, and a 1 - 5 positive arbitrage is recommended [3]. - **Coke**: It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1650 - 1780, and a 1 - 5 positive arbitrage is recommended [3]. Non - ferrous - **Copper**: The end of the US government shutdown may drive the copper price to rebound, with the main contract reference range of 85500 - 87500 [3]. - **Other Non - ferrous Metals**: Each metal has its own price range and corresponding investment suggestions, such as holding long - positions for tin, and taking a wait - and - see or other strategies for others [3]. New Energy - **Polysilicon**: The price is expected to fluctuate in the range of 50000 - 58000 due to decreased demand and falling silicon wafer prices [3]. - **Lithium Hydroxide**: The price is in a moderate - amplitude shock adjustment, and attention should be paid to the performance at the previous high [3]. Energy and Chemical - **PX, PTA, etc.**: Each chemical product has its own price range and investment strategies, such as taking a wait - and - see attitude, reducing long - positions, or conducting arbitrage operations [3]. Agricultural Products - **Soybeans, Hogs, etc.**: Different agricultural products have different price trends and investment suggestions, such as holding a 3 - 7 reverse arbitrage for hogs and paying attention to support or pressure levels for others [3].

Group 1: Stock Index Futures Spread Daily Report Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - Presents current values, historical 1 - year and full - historical quantiles, and daily changes of various stock index futures spreads, including IF, IH, IC, and IM, as well as cross - variety ratios [1] Summary by Related Catalogs - **Futures - Spot Spreads**: IF futures - spot spread is - 25.37 (17.80% historical 1 - year quantile), IH is - 2.31 (35.20%), IC is - 10.61 (11.80%), and IM is - 118.61 (1.60%) [1] - **Cross - Term Spreads**: For example, in IF, the spread between the next - month and current - month contracts is - 13.40 (34.00% historical 1 - year quantile), and the spread between the far - month and current - month contracts is - 81.20 (22.90%) [1] - **Cross - Variety Ratios**: Ratios such as CSI 500/Shanghai Composite 300, IC/IF are presented, with corresponding historical quantiles and daily changes [1] Group 2: Treasury Bond Futures Spread Daily Report Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - Displays the latest values, changes from the previous trading day, and listing - since quantiles of basis, cross - term spreads, and cross - variety spreads of treasury bond futures including TS, TF, T, and TL [3] Summary by Related Catalogs - **Basis**: TS basis is 1.5305 (23.00% listing - since quantile), TF is 1.6034 (42.90%), T is 1.8411 (64.20%), and TL is 1.3526 (40.20%) [3] - **Cross - Term Spreads**: For T futures, the spread between the current - quarter and next - quarter contracts is 0.2350 (44.20% listing - since quantile) [3] - **Cross - Variety Spreads**: For example, the spread between TS and TF is - 3.4730 (9.50% listing - since quantile) [3] Group 3: Precious Metals Spot - Futures Daily Report Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - Provides domestic and foreign futures closing prices, spot prices, basis, ratios, interest rates, exchange rates, inventory, and positions of precious metals (gold and silver) [5] Summary by Related Catalogs - **Futures Closing Prices**: Domestic AU2512 contract closed at 948.88 yuan/gram on November 11, up 1.38% from the previous day; AG2512 contract closed at 11880 yuan/kilogram, up 1.37% [5] - **Spot Prices**: London gold was at 4125.48 dollars/ounce on November 11, up 0.24% [5] - **Basis**: The basis of gold TD - Shanghai gold main contract is - 2.38 (55.80% historical 1 - year quantile) [5] - **Ratios**: COMEX gold/silver ratio is 80.92, down 1.08% from the previous day [5] - **Interest Rates and Exchange Rates**: 10 - year US Treasury yield is 4.13%, up 3.5% [5] - **Inventory and Positions**: Shanghai Futures Exchange gold inventory remained unchanged at 89616 kilograms; silver inventory decreased by 2.97% to 591884 kilograms [5] Group 4: Capital Flow and Key Seats' Position Change Daily Report Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The available content does not convey clear information about the core view Summary by Related Catalogs - Not available due to insufficient clear content

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoint - This report is a daily tracking of stock index futures positions, presenting the total position changes and key position adjustments of the top 20 seats of IF, IH, IC, and IM on November 11, 2025 [1][4][10] Summary by Related Catalogs IF (CSI 300) - **Total Position and Main Contract Position Changes**: On November 11, the total position of the IF variety decreased by 5,129 contracts, with the main contract 2512's position decreasing by 4,735 contracts [4] - **Changes in Long Positions of the Top 20 Seats**: Guotai Junan Futures ranked first among the top 20 long seats, with a total position of 38,305 contracts. Dayue Futures had the most long - position increase, adding 812 contracts, while Guotai Junan Futures had the most long - position decrease, reducing 2,005 contracts [5] - **Changes in Short Positions of the Top 20 Seats**: CITIC Futures ranked first among the top 20 short seats, with a total position of 43,386 contracts. CITIC Construction Investment Futures had the most short - position increase, adding 579 contracts, while CITIC Futures had the most short - position decrease, reducing 1,659 contracts [7] IH (SSE 50) - **Total Position and Main Contract Position Changes**: On November 11, the total position of the IH variety decreased by 1,967 contracts, with the main contract 2512's position decreasing by 712 contracts [10] - **Changes in Long Positions of the Top 20 Seats**: Guotai Junan Futures ranked first among the top 20 long seats, with a total position of 12,137 contracts. Yong'an Futures had the most long - position increase, adding 186 contracts, while Guotai Junan Futures had the most long - position decrease, reducing 1,060 contracts [11] - **Changes in Short Positions of the Top 20 Seats**: CITIC Futures ranked first among the top 20 short seats, with a total position of 14,133 contracts. CITIC Construction Investment Futures had the most short - position increase, adding 83 contracts, while Guotai Junan Futures had the most short - position decrease, reducing 446 contracts [12] IC (CSI 500) - **Total Position and Main Contract Position Changes**: On November 11, the total position of the IC variety decreased by 8,077 contracts, with the main contract 2512's position decreasing by 5,885 contracts [16] - **Changes in Long Positions of the Top 20 Seats**: CITIC Futures ranked first among the top 20 long seats, with a total position of 33,102 contracts. CITIC Construction Investment Futures had the most long - position increase, adding 212 contracts, while CITIC Futures had the most long - position decrease, reducing 2,628 contracts [17] - **Changes in Short Positions of the Top 20 Seats**: CITIC Futures ranked first among the top 20 short seats, with a total position of 39,034 contracts. Bank of China Futures had the most short - position increase, adding 147 contracts, while CITIC Futures had the most short - position decrease, reducing 2,943 contracts [19] IM (CSI 1000) - **Total Position and Main Contract Position Changes**: On November 11, the total position of the IM variety decreased by 582 contracts, with the main contract 2509's position decreasing by 6 contracts [22] - **Changes in Long Positions of the Top 20 Seats**: Guotai Junan Futures ranked first among the top 20 long seats, with a total position of 50,008 contracts. CITIC Futures had the most long - position increase, adding 711 contracts, while Dongzheng Futures had the most long - position decrease, reducing 822 contracts [23] - **Changes in Short Positions of the Top 20 Seats**: CITIC Futures ranked first among the top 20 short seats, with a total position of 71,577 contracts. Haitong Futures had the most short - position increase, adding 772 contracts, while Guotai Junan Futures had the most short - position decrease, reducing 1,389 contracts [25]

Report Title - Full Variety Spread Daily Report [4] Report Date - November 12, 2025 [3] Commodity Analysis Ferrous Metals - Silicon iron (SF601) spot price is 5488, futures price is 5608, with a basis of 120 and a basis rate of 2.19% [1] - Silicon manganese (SM601) has a conversion price of 6517 [1] - Rebar (RB2601) spot price is 3190, futures price is 3055, with a basis of 135 and a basis rate of 4.36% [1] - Hot - rolled coil (HC2601) spot price is 3260, futures price is 3242, with a basis of 18 and a basis rate of 0.56% [1] - Iron ore (I2601) spot price is 763, futures price is 836, with a basis of 73 and a basis rate of 8.73% [1] - Coke (J2601) spot price is 1685, futures price is 1689, with a basis of - 4 and a basis rate of - 0.24% [1] - Coking coal (JM2601) spot price is 1321, futures price is 1213, with a basis of 108 and a basis rate of 8.9% [1] Non - Ferrous Metals - Copper (CU2512) spot price is 86765, futures price is 86630, with a basis of 135 and a basis rate of 0.16% [1] - Aluminum (AL2601) spot price is 21620, futures price is 21665, with a basis of - 45 and a basis rate of - 0.21% [1] - Alumina (AO2601) spot price is 2854, futures price is 2816, with a basis of 38 and a basis rate of 1.35% [1] - Zinc (ZN2512) spot price is 22590, futures price is 22675, with a basis of - 85 and a basis rate of - 0.37% [1] - Tin (SN2512) spot price is 287700, futures price is 288180, with a basis of - 480 and a basis rate of - 0.17% [1] - Nickel (NI2512) spot price is 119900, futures price is 119380, with a basis of 520 and a basis rate of 0.44% [1] - Stainless steel (SS2512) spot price is 12920, futures price is 12465, with a basis of 455 and a basis rate of 3.65% [1] - Lithium carbonate (LC2601) spot price is 86540, futures price is 82300, with a basis of 4240 and a basis rate of 5.14% [1] - Industrial silicon (SI2601) spot price is 9500, futures price is 9180, with a basis of 320 and a basis rate of 3.49% [1] Precious Metals - Gold (AU2512) spot price is 948.9, futures price is 946.5, with a basis of 2.4 and a basis rate of 0.25% [1] - Silver (AG2512) spot price is 11880, futures price is 11865, with a basis of 15 and a basis rate of 0.13% [1] Agricultural Products - Soybean meal (M2601) spot price is 3054, futures price is 3000, with a basis of 54 and a basis rate of 1.77% [1] - Soybean oil (Y2601) spot price is 8450, futures price is 8238, with a basis of 212 and a basis rate of 2.57% [1] - Palm oil (P2601) spot price is 8770, futures price is 8730, with a basis of 40 and a basis rate of 0.46% [1] - Rapeseed meal (RM601) spot price is 2620, futures price is 2500, with a basis of 120 and a basis rate of 4.8% [1] - Rapeseed oil (OI601) spot price is 10120, futures price is 9775, with a basis of 345 and a basis rate of 3.41% [1] - Corn (C2601) spot price is 2180, futures price is 2177, with a basis of 3 and a basis rate of 0.14% [1] - Corn starch (CS2601) spot price is 2550, futures price is 2490, with a basis of 60 and a basis rate of 2.41% [1] - Live pigs (LH2601) spot price is 12050, futures price is 11755, with a basis of 295 and a basis rate of 2.51% [1] - Eggs (JD2512) spot price is 3152, futures price is 2840, with a basis of 312 and a basis rate of 10.57% [1] - Cotton (CF601) spot price is 14668, futures price is 13560, with a basis of 1108 and a basis rate of 8.17% [1] - Sugar (SR601) spot price is 5760, futures price is 5480, with a basis of 280 and a basis rate of 5.11% [1] - Apples (AP601) spot price is 9229, futures price is 8840, with a basis of 389 and a basis rate of 4.21% [1] - Red dates (CJ601) spot price is 9495, futures price is 9000, with a basis of 495 and a basis rate of 5.21% [1] Energy and Chemicals - Paraxylene (PX601) spot price is 6735, futures price is 6756, with a basis of - 21 and a basis rate of - 0.31% [1] - PTA (TA601) spot price is 4585, futures price is 4648, with a basis of - 63 and a basis rate of - 1.36% [1] - Ethylene glycol (EG2601) spot price is 3875, futures price is 4020, with a basis of - 145 and a basis rate of - 3.61% [1] - Polyester staple fiber (PF602) spot price is 6325, futures price is 6152, with a basis of 173 and a basis rate of 2.81% [1] - Styrene (EB2512) spot price is 6231, futures price is 6285, with a basis of - 54 and a basis rate of - 0.86% [1] - Methanol (MA601) spot price is 2082, futures price is 2060, with a basis of 22 and a basis rate of 1.06% [1] - Urea (UR601) spot price is 1610, futures price is 1640, with a basis of - 30 and a basis rate of - 1.86% [1] - LLDPE (L2601) spot price is 6865, futures price is 6760, with a basis of 105 and a basis rate of 1.55% [1] - PP (PP2601) spot price is 6429, futures price is 6500, with a basis of - 71 and a basis rate of - 1.1% [1] - PVC (V2601) spot price is 4572, futures price is 4510, with a basis of 62 and a basis rate of 1.36% [1] - Caustic soda (SH601) spot price is 2468.8, futures price is 2357, with a basis of 111.8 and a basis rate of 4.74% [1] - LPG (PG2512) spot price is 4498, futures price is 4324, with a basis of 174 and a basis rate of 4.02% [1] - Asphalt (BU2601) spot price is 3000, futures price is 3050, with a basis of - 50 and a basis rate of - 1.64% [1] - Butadiene rubber (BR2601) spot price is 10240, futures price is 10200, with a basis of 40 and a basis rate of 0.39% [1] - Glass (FG601) spot price is 1053, futures price is 1032, with a basis of 21 and a basis rate of 2.03% [1] - Soda ash (SA601) spot price is 1176, futures price is 1215, with a basis of - 39 and a basis rate of - 3.32% [1] - Natural rubber (RU2601) spot price is 15095, futures price is 14700, with a basis of 395 and a basis rate of 2.69% [1] Financial Futures - IF2512.CFE spot price is 4652.2, futures price is 4626.8, with a basis of 25.4 and a basis rate of 0.55% [1] - IH2512.CFE spot price is 3034.6, futures price is 3033, with a basis of 1.6 and a basis rate of 0.05% [1] - IC2512.CFE spot price is 7291.6, futures price is 7173, with a basis of 118.6 and a basis rate of 1.64% [1] - IM2512.CFE spot price is 7540.8, futures price is 7390.4, with a basis of 150.4 and a basis rate of 2.03% [1] - 2 - year bond (TS2512) spot price is 102.46, futures price is 100.04, with a basis of 2.42 and a basis rate of 2.41% [1] - 5 - year bond (TF2512) spot price is 105.94, futures price is 99.61, with a basis of 6.33 and a basis rate of 6.07% [1] - 10 - year bond (T2512) spot price is 106.55, futures price is 108.5, with a basis of - 1.95 and a basis rate of - 1.83% [1] - 30 - year bond (TL2512) spot price is 131.32, futures price is 116.34, with a basis of 14.98 and a basis rate of 12.88% [1]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided in the given content. Core Views of the Report - A-shares showed a shrinking volume and oscillating trend, with sector rotation continuing. The pro-cyclical sectors rotated upwards, while the TMT sector collectively corrected. The four major stock index futures contracts all declined, and the basis discounts of the main contracts widened [2][3]. - The pressure on funds has marginally eased, and the bond futures market showed an oscillating trend. The central bank will implement a moderately loose monetary policy, and the market liquidity is expected to return to a stable state [5][6]. - The deterioration of US employment data has boosted the expectation of interest rate cuts, and precious metals fluctuated significantly during the session but still closed higher. In the medium and long term, precious metals are expected to enter a bull market [8][9]. - The container shipping index showed a downward trend in the futures market. The spot market is still cold, and the upward trend of the main contract is difficult to sustain. It is expected to oscillate within a certain range [11][12]. - Various metals in the non-ferrous metal sector showed different trends. For example, copper prices rebounded due to the expected end of the US government shutdown and the release of liquidity risks; aluminum prices will fluctuate between event-driven factors and weak fundamentals in the short term [12][21]. - In the black metal sector, the inventories of iron and carbon elements are differentiated. The long coal and short hot-rolled coil strategy can continue to be held. The prices of iron ore, coking coal, and coke all showed a downward trend [46][54][57]. - In the agricultural product sector, the export of US soybeans is still uncertain, and attention should be paid to the USDA report on Friday [61]. Summaries According to the Directory Financial Derivatives - Financial Futures Stock Index Futures - **Market Conditions**: On Tuesday, A-shares opened higher in the morning and then oscillated weakly during the day. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.39%, and the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index also declined. The pro-cyclical sectors rotated upwards, while the TMT sector collectively corrected. The four major stock index futures contracts all declined, and the basis discounts of the main contracts widened [2][3]. - **Operation Suggestions**: It is recommended to mainly observe. If there is a significant decline in a single day, a bull spread of put options can be arranged [4]. Bond Futures - **Market Performance**: Most bond futures contracts closed flat, and the yields of most major interest rate bonds in the inter-bank market declined. - **Funding Situation**: The central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 403.8 billion yuan, with a net investment of 286.3 billion yuan. The market liquidity is expected to return to a stable state [5][6]. - **Operation Suggestions**: It is recommended to go long on dips in a single - sided strategy. For the spot - futures strategy, attention can be paid to the positive arbitrage strategy opportunities [7]. Financial Derivatives - Precious Metals - **Market Review**: The US government's "re - opening" process is progressing steadily, and the recent US employment situation has continued to deteriorate, which has supported the expectation of a Fed interest rate cut in December. Precious metals fluctuated significantly during the session but still closed higher. The international gold price closed at $4,125.67 per ounce, up 0.24%, and the international silver price closed at $51.187 per ounce, up 1.37% [8][9]. - **Future Outlook**: The US economy and employment market are still affected by the government "shutdown" and trade frictions. The probability of a Fed interest rate cut in December is increasing. Precious metals are expected to enter a bull market in the medium and long term. It is recommended to hold long positions [9][10]. Financial Derivatives - Container Shipping Index (European Line) - **Spot Quotations**: As of November 4, the freight quotations for Shanghai - European basic ports showed different ranges. As of November 10, the SCFIS European line index rose 24.5% month - on - month, and the US West route index rose 4.94% month - on - month [11]. - **Fundamentals**: As of November 10, the global container total capacity increased by 7.34% year - on - year. The eurozone's October composite PMI was 52.2, and the US October manufacturing PMI was 48.7 [11]. - **Operation Suggestions**: It is expected to oscillate within the range of 1,750 - 1,950 points. It is recommended to go long on dips for the December contract [12]. Commodity Futures - Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - **Spot**: As of November 11, the average price of SMM electrolytic copper increased compared with the previous working day, and the market procurement sentiment improved [12]. - **Macro**: The expected end of the US government shutdown is expected to release liquidity, which is beneficial to copper prices [12]. - **Supply**: The spot TC of copper concentrate is at a low level. In October, the output of SMM Chinese electrolytic copper decreased month - on - month, mainly due to the maintenance of 8 smelters. It is expected that the output in November will decrease slightly [13][14]. - **Demand**: The weekly operating rates of electrolytic copper rods and recycled copper rods increased. The downstream demand for copper has strong resilience, and there are still many purchase orders after the price decline [14]. - **Operation Suggestions**: The main contract is expected to oscillate within the range of 85,500 - 87,500 yuan/ton [16]. Aluminum Oxide - **Spot**: On November 11, the average price of SMM Shandong aluminum oxide increased, while the prices in other regions were flat. The short - term supply pattern is gradually loosening, and the spot price is loose [16]. - **Supply**: In October, the output of Chinese metallurgical - grade aluminum oxide increased year - on - year and month - on - month. It is expected that the supply surplus pattern will continue in November, and high - cost enterprises may reduce production [17]. - **Operation Suggestions**: The main contract is expected to oscillate weakly within the range of 2,750 - 2,900 yuan/ton [18]. Aluminum - **Spot**: On November 11, the average price of SMM A00 aluminum increased, and the market shipment was active at high prices, but the actual transaction was less [19]. - **Supply**: In October, the domestic electrolytic aluminum output increased year - on - year and month - on - month. It is expected that the daily output of aluminum ingots may decline slightly in November due to environmental protection restrictions [19]. - **Operation Suggestions**: The main contract is expected to oscillate within the range of 21,000 - 21,800 yuan/ton. It is recommended to go short on rallies in the short term [21]. Zinc - **Spot**: On November 11, the average price of SMM 0 zinc ingots increased, and the downstream demand was weak, with only a small amount of rigid demand replenishment [24]. - **Supply**: The supply of the zinc industry chain is gradually loosening, and the TC has turned from rising to falling. It is expected that the supply pressure will be limited in the future [25]. - **Demand**: The operating rates of the three primary processing industries of zinc showed a weak trend, and the overall demand did not exceed expectations. The export window of refined zinc is open, which may boost domestic zinc prices [26]. - **Operation Suggestions**: The main contract is expected to oscillate within the range of 22,300 - 23,000 yuan/ton [27]. Tin - **Spot**: On November 11, the price of SMM 1 tin increased, and the market trading was relatively cold [28]. - **Supply**: The supply of tin ore is still tight, and the processing fee of smelters remains at a low level. It is expected that the improvement of tin ore supply this year is limited [31]. - **Demand**: The demand is still weak, and the order volume of the solder industry has decreased significantly. Although some tin consumption has been driven by AI and the photovoltaic industry, it is difficult to make up for the decline in traditional consumption [31]. - **Operation Suggestions**: Hold long positions and pay attention to the supply recovery in Myanmar in the fourth quarter [31]. Nickel - **Spot**: As of November 11, the average price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel increased slightly [31]. - **Supply**: The production of refined nickel is still at a high level, but it is expected to decrease month - on - month [32]. - **Demand**: The overall demand for electroplating and alloys is relatively stable, while the demand for stainless steel is general. The demand for ternary materials has improved in the short term, but there is new production capacity in the medium term [32]. - **Operation Suggestions**: The main contract is expected to oscillate within the range of 118,000 - 124,000 yuan/ton. Pay attention to macro - expectations and Indonesian industrial policies [33]. Stainless Steel - **Spot**: As of November 11, the prices of Wuxi Hongwang 304 cold - rolled steel decreased, and the raw material cost support declined [35]. - **Supply**: In October, the domestic stainless steel production increased month - on - month. It is expected that the production will decrease in November. The production of the 300 - series still remains at a high level [36]. - **Operation Suggestions**: The main contract is expected to oscillate weakly within the range of 12,400 - 12,800 yuan/ton. Pay attention to macro - expectations and steel mill supply [37]. Lithium Carbonate - **Spot**: As of November 11, the prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased, and the spot trading was still light [38]. - **Supply**: In October, the output of lithium carbonate increased year - on - year and month - on - month. The production last week increased slightly, mainly driven by lithium spodumene and mica [39]. - **Demand**: The demand is generally optimistic, and the production schedules of iron - lithium and ternary materials are expected to increase month - on - month [39]. - **Operation Suggestions**: Pay attention to the performance near the previous high pressure level. The short - term view is wide - range oscillating adjustment [41]. Polysilicon - **Spot Price**: On November 12, the prices of polysilicon remained unchanged. The demand is expected to decline, and the silicon wafer price has decreased [42]. - **Supply**: In November, the production of polysilicon is expected to decline to about 120,000 tons [42]. - **Demand**: The demand at all levels is expected to decline, and there is still an expectation of inventory accumulation [43]. - **Operation Suggestions**: It is expected to oscillate at a high level. Pay attention to the support of the spot price and the digestion of warehouse receipts [44]. Industrial Silicon - **Spot Price**: On November 12, the prices of industrial silicon in various regions remained unchanged [46]. - **Supply**: In October, the production of industrial silicon increased, and it is expected to decline to about 400,000 tons in November [46]. - **Demand**: The demand is expected to decline slightly, mainly due to the decrease in polysilicon production [46]. - **Operation Suggestions**: It is expected to oscillate at a low level within the range of 8,500 - 9,500 yuan/ton. Pay attention to the digestion of warehouse receipts after the centralized cancellation of the November contract [47]. Commodity Futures - Black Metals Steel - **Spot**: The spot prices of steel remained stable, and the basis weakened [47]. - **Cost and Profit**: The cost of iron elements has weak support, while the cost of carbon elements has support. The current profit ranking is billet > hot - rolled coil > rebar > cold - rolled coil [48]. - **Supply**: The production of iron elements increased year - on - year from January to September. Recently, the molten iron output has declined, and the production of five major steel products has also decreased [48]. - **Demand**: The domestic demand expectation is still weak, while the export remains at a high level. The current apparent demand has declined [48]. - **Operation Suggestions**: Hold the long coal and short hot - rolled coil strategy. Observe unilaterally and pay attention to the support levels of rebar and hot - rolled coil [50]. Iron Ore - **Spot**: As of November 11, the price of mainstream iron ore powder remained stable [51]. - **Futures**: The iron ore futures prices declined, and the 1 - 5 spread strengthened [52]. - **Demand**: The daily molten iron output decreased, and the demand for iron ore decreased [53]. - **Supply**: The global shipment and arrival volume of iron ore decreased last week [53]. - **Operation Suggestions**: Observe unilaterally. Arrange the long coking coal and short iron ore strategy [54]. Coking Coal - **Futures and Spot**: The coking coal futures prices declined, while the domestic coking coal spot market continued to be strong, and the Mongolian coal price followed the futures to decline [55]. - **Supply**: The production capacity utilization rate of sample coal mines decreased, and the production of raw coal and clean coal decreased [55][56]. - **Demand**: The iron water output declined significantly, and the coking plant's start - up decreased slightly. The steel mill's replenishment demand weakened [56]. - **Operation Suggestions**: Consider the coking coal 1 - 5 positive arbitrage strategy. The single - sided view is oscillating, with the range of 1,170 - 1,290 yuan/ton [57]. Coke - **Futures and Spot**: The coke futures prices declined, and the mainstream coke enterprises initiated the fourth round of price increases, but it has not been implemented yet [58][60]. - **Supply**: The production of coke decreased, and the coking plant's start - up decreased [58]. - **Demand**: The iron water output declined significantly, and the steel mill's profit decreased, which suppressed the price increase of coke [59]. - **Operation Suggestions**: Consider the coke 1 - 5 positive arbitrage strategy. The single - sided view is oscillating, with the range of 1,650 - 1,780 yuan/ton [60]. Commodity Futures - Agricultural Products Meal - **Spot Market**: On November 11, the domestic soybean meal spot prices showed mixed trends, and the rapeseed meal prices decreased by 0 - 20 yuan/ton [61]. - **Fundamental News**: The US soybean export inspection volume last week was 1,088,577 tons, and the soybean harvest rate was 96% [61]. - **Operation Suggestions**: Pay attention to the USDA report on Friday as the US soybean export is still uncertain [61].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - In the context of strong supply and weak demand, the log futures market is expected to continue its weak and volatile trend. The supply is expected to increase this week, and the spot price is declining, putting pressure on the market. However, the current futures price is relatively low, and the significant inversion between domestic and foreign prices provides some support for import costs, limiting the downside space of the futures price [2][3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures and Spot Prices - On November 10, the prices of log futures contracts 2511, 2601, 2603, and 2605 were 740.0, 782.5, 795.0, and 813.0 respectively, with price changes of -2.0, 4.0, 2.5, and 7.5 and corresponding percentage changes of -0.27%, 0.51%, 0.32%, and 0.93% compared to November 7 [1] - The 11 - 01 and 11 - 03 spreads were -42.5 and -55.0 respectively, down 6.0 and 4.5 from November 7 [1] - The 11 - contract and 01 - contract basis were 10.0 and -32.5 respectively, with changes of 2.0 and -4.0 from November 7 [1] - Among the spot prices, the prices of most types of logs in ports remained unchanged, except for the 4A medium - radiation pine in Taicang Port, which decreased by 10 to 760, a decline of 1.30% [1] - The CFR prices of 4 - meter medium A radiation pine and 11.8 - meter spruce in the outer market remained unchanged at 116 dollars/JAS cubic meter and 126 euros/JAS cubic meter respectively [1] Cost: Import Cost Calculation - On November 10, the RMB - US dollar exchange rate was 7.120, with no change from November 9. The import theoretical cost, calculated with a 15% over - length, was 811.79 yuan, down 0.43 yuan from November 9 [1] Supply: Monthly - In October, the port shipment volume from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea was 201.3 million cubic meters, an increase of 24.7 million cubic meters (13.99%) from September. The number of departing ships from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea was 54, an increase of 8 (17.39%) from September [1] Inventory: Main Port Inventory (Weekly) - As of November 7, the total inventory of domestic coniferous logs was 293 million cubic meters, an increase of 5 million cubic meters (1.74%) from October 31. The inventories in China, Shandong, and Jiangsu were 191.50, 82.45, and 82.26 million cubic meters respectively, with changes of 3.2, 0.2, and 0.24% compared to October 31 [1][2] Demand - As of November 7, the daily average outbound volume of logs was 6.63 million cubic meters, an increase of 0.35 million cubic meters (6%) from October 31. The daily average outbound volumes in China, Shandong, and Jiangsu were 6.63, 3.79, and 2.28 million cubic meters respectively, with changes of 0.35 (6%), 0.60 (19%), and - 0.15 (-6%) compared to October 31 [2] Forecast of Arrival - From November 10 - 16, 2025, the number of expected arriving ships of New Zealand logs at 13 ports in China was 12, a decrease of 4 (25%) from last week. The total arrival volume was about 39.5 million cubic meters, a decrease of 13.6 million cubic meters (26%) from last week [2]