Guang Fa Qi Huo
Search documents
广发早知道:汇总版-20251111
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-11-11 00:58
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report comprehensively analyzes the market conditions of various financial derivatives and commodity futures, including stock index futures, treasury bond futures, precious metals, container shipping index, non - ferrous metals, black metals, and agricultural products. It provides specific operation suggestions based on the market trends, supply - demand relationships, and macro - economic factors of each category. Summary by Directory Financial Derivatives Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: The consumer sector rebounded strongly, while industrial manufacturing - related industries pulled back. The four major stock index futures contracts rose, and the basis of the main contracts was repaired. It is recommended to wait and see, and consider deploying a bull spread of put options in case of a deep decline [2][3][4]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The bond market sentiment was positive despite the short - term tightening of the capital side. It is recommended to go long on dips and pay attention to the positive arbitrage strategy [5][6]. Precious Metals - **Gold and Silver**: The end of the US government shutdown is expected to lead to a decline in the US dollar index, and the supply shortage drives the significant strengthening of precious metals. It is recommended to buy on dips below $4100 for gold and buy out - of - the - money call options for silver [7][8][10]. Container Shipping Index (European Line) - The spot market is still cold, and the main contract is expected to fluctuate between 1750 - 1950 points. It is recommended to go long on dips for the December contract [11][12]. Commodity Futures Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The expectation of the end of the US government shutdown eases liquidity risks and drives the rebound of copper prices. It is recommended to pay attention to the support at 84000 and the resistance at 86500 [12][13][16]. - **Alumina**: The spot market shows regional differentiation, and the price is expected to maintain a weak shock. The reference range for the main contract is 2750 - 2900 yuan/ton [16][17][18]. - **Aluminum**: The price is in a high - level shock, and the short - term fundamentals restrict the upward height. The main contract is expected to operate between 21000 - 21800 yuan/ton [19][20][21]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The cost is strongly supported, and the price is expected to maintain a strong shock. The reference range for the main contract is 20400 - 21100 yuan/ton [22][23]. - **Zinc**: The liquidity risk mitigation expectation rises, and the price is in a high - level shock. The main contract is expected to operate between 22300 - 23000 [24][26][27]. - **Tin**: The market sentiment improves, and the price is in a high - level shock. It is recommended to hold long positions [32]. - **Nickel**: The fundamentals change little, and the macro is weak. The main contract is expected to operate between 118000 - 124000 [33][34]. - **Stainless Steel**: The macro - drive weakens, and the fundamentals still have pressure. The main contract is expected to operate between 12500 - 13000, showing a weak shock [35][36][38]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The macro - atmosphere drives the price up. The short - term fundamentals provide support, but the upward movement is mainly driven by funds. It is recommended to pay attention to the resistance at the previous high [41][42]. - **Polysilicon**: The spot price stabilizes, and the futures price fluctuates upward. It is expected to maintain a high - level shock. It is recommended to go long on dips in the futures and sell put options in the options [42][43][44]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The spot price in some areas rises, and the price is expected to be in a low - level shock. The reference range is 8500 - 9500 yuan/ton [44][45][46]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The supply of iron elements in the January contract is loose, and it is recommended to continue holding the strategy of going long on coking coal and short on hot - rolled coils [47][48]. - **Iron Ore**: The supply is relatively loose, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to go short on rallies and use the strategy of going long on coking coal and short on iron ore [50][51][52]. - **Coking Coal**: The spot market is strong, but the demand for replenishment weakens. It is recommended to go long on dips for the 2601 contract and use the strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke [53][54][55]. - **Coke**: The cost is supported, and there is still an expectation of price increase. It is recommended to go long on dips for the 2601 contract and use the strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke [56][57][58]. Agricultural Products - **Meal**: The export of US soybeans is still uncertain. The domestic soybean meal is expected to fluctuate widely. It is recommended to pay attention to the USDA report on Friday [60][61][62].
广发期货《能源化工》日报-20251110
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-11-10 08:10
Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings were provided in the reports. Core Views Natural Rubber - The natural rubber market is expected to enter a seasonal inventory accumulation cycle, with short - term price range - bound. If raw material supply is smooth, there is further downward potential; if not, prices are expected to range between 15,000 - 15,500 [1]. Glass and Soda Ash - For soda ash, the long - term supply - demand pattern is bearish, and short - term rebounds should be treated as opportunities to go short. For glass, short - term long opportunities can be seized on dips, but the industry still needs capacity clearance to solve the over - supply problem [3]. Methanol - The methanol market is trading on the "weak reality" logic, with the core contradiction being high port inventories. Before Iranian gas restrictions, the weak reality will continue to be priced in [6]. Polyester Industry Chain - PX supply is stable, but November's supply - demand is expected to be loose. PTA is expected to be in a tight - balance in the short - term but loose in the medium - term. Ethylene glycol is under pressure due to expected high inventory accumulation. Short - fiber and bottle - chip markets also face supply - demand challenges [8]. Polyolefins - Polypropylene and polyethylene both show increasing supply and demand, but the market still faces pressure from new capacity and supply increases [11]. PVC and Caustic Soda - Caustic soda prices are expected to be weak in the short - term due to increased supply and weak demand. PVC is in an over - supply situation, and prices are expected to continue to be weak [13]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure benzene supply is expected to be loose, and price drivers are weak. Styrene supply - demand may be in a tight - balance, but cost support is insufficient [14]. Summary by Directory Natural Rubber - **Spot Prices and Basis**: Yunnan state - owned whole - latex rubber in Shanghai rose 200 yuan/ton to 14,550 yuan/ton, with a 1.39% increase. The whole - latex basis increased by 250 yuan/ton to - 445 yuan/ton, a 35.97% rise [1]. - **Monthly Spreads**: The 9 - 1 spread decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 115 yuan/ton, a 17.86% decline [1]. - **Fundamentals**: In August, Thailand's production decreased by 260,000 tons to 4.515 million tons, a 5.45% drop. China's production increased by 86,000 tons to 1.223 million tons [1]. - **Inventory Changes**: Bonded area inventory increased by 15,439 tons to 447,668 tons, a 3.57% increase [1]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass - Related Prices and Spreads**: Glass 2601 decreased by 10 yuan/ton to 1,091 yuan/ton, a 0.91% decline [3]. - **Soda Ash - Related Prices and Spreads**: Soda Ash 2605 increased by 1 yuan/ton to 1,294 yuan/ton, a 0.08% increase [3]. - **Production Volumes**: Soda ash well - working rate decreased by 1.72% to 86.89% [3]. - **Inventory**: Soda ash factory inventory increased by 42,000 tons to 1.702 million tons, a 2.54% increase [3]. Methanol - **Methanol Prices and Spreads**: MA2601 closed at 2,112 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan/ton, a 0.61% decline [4]. - **Inventory**: Methanol enterprise inventory increased by 1.04% to 38.641% [5]. - **Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates**: Upstream domestic enterprise operating rate increased by 0.41% to 76.09% [6]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Upstream Prices**: Brent crude oil (January) rose 0.25 dollars/barrel to 63.63 dollars/barrel, a 0.4% increase [8]. - **PX - Related Prices and Spreads**: CFR China PX was 698 dollars/ton, up 0.1% [8]. - **PTA - Related Prices and Spreads**: PTA East - China spot price rose 35 yuan/ton to 4,575 yuan/ton, a 0.8% increase [8]. - **MEG Port Inventory and Arrival Expectations**: MEG port inventory increased by 7.5% to 56.2 million tons [8]. Polyolefins - **Prices**: L2601 closed at 6,802 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton, a 0.04% decline [11]. - **Inventory**: PE enterprise inventory increased by 17.84% to 49.0 million tons [11]. - **Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates**: PE device operating rate increased by 2.13% to 82.6% [11]. PVC and Caustic Soda - **Prices**: SH2601 decreased by 12 yuan/ton to 2,331 yuan/ton, a 0.5% decline [13]. - **Supply**: Caustic soda industry operating rate increased by 3.3% to 88.3% [13]. - **Demand**: Alumina industry operating rate decreased by 0.3% to 82.2% [13]. - **Inventory**: Liquid caustic soda East - China factory inventory increased by 18.9% to 22.3 million tons [13]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Prices**: CFR China pure benzene was 664 dollars/ton, up 0.2% [14]. - **Inventory**: Pure benzene Jiangsu port inventory increased, with supply pressure rising [14]. - **Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates**: Caprolactam operating rate remained unchanged at 86.1% [14].
《有色》日报-20251110
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-11-10 08:09
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - For the steel industry, the steel market shows that mills continue to cut production, hot metal declines, apparent demand drops, and inventory reduction slows. The cost support of iron elements is weak, while that of carbon elements is strong. The steel price is unlikely to fall significantly, and the long - coking coal and short - hot rolled coil arbitrage can be held. The unilateral prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil may test previous lows [2]. - For the iron ore industry, the iron ore futures are in a weak downward trend. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is weakening. Due to the weak steel price, the profitability of mills is declining, which will force the iron ore market to be weak. It is recommended to short iron ore futures on rallies and conduct long - coking coal and short - iron ore arbitrage [4][6]. - For the coke industry, the coke futures fluctuated downward last week. The supply is tight, and the cost support is strong. It is recommended to go long on coke 2601 on dips and conduct long - coking coal and short - coke arbitrage [7]. - For the coking coal industry, the coking coal futures also showed a downward trend last week. The supply is expected to increase slightly, and the demand is weakening. It is recommended to go long on coking coal 2601 on dips and conduct long - coking coal and short - coke arbitrage [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Industry Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar spot prices in East, North, and South China are 3190 yuan/ton, 3200 yuan/ton, and 3260 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of 0, +10, and - 10 yuan/ton compared to the previous value. Rebar contract prices for 05, 10, and 01 are 3095 yuan/ton, 3132 yuan/ton, and 3034 yuan/ton respectively, all showing declines [2]. - Hot - rolled coil spot prices in East, North, and South China are 3260 yuan/ton, 3190 yuan/ton, and 3260 yuan/ton respectively, all down 10 yuan/ton. Hot - rolled coil contract prices for 05, 10, and 01 are 3254 yuan/ton, 3276 yuan/ton, and 3245 yuan/ton respectively, all down 11 yuan/ton [2]. Cost and Profit - The billet price is 2940 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton; the slab price is 3730 yuan/ton, unchanged. The profits of hot - rolled coils in East, North, and South China are all down [2]. Supply - The daily average hot metal output is 234.2 tons, down 2.1 tons (-0.9%); the output of five major steel products is 856.7 tons, down 18.5 tons (-2.1%); the rebar output is 208.5 tons, down 4.1 tons (-1.9%); the hot - rolled coil output is 318.2 tons, down 5.4 tons (-1.7%) [2]. Inventory - The inventory of five major steel products is 1503.6 tons, down 10.2 tons (-0.7%); the rebar inventory is 592.5 tons, down 10 tons (-1.7%); the hot - rolled coil inventory is 410.5 tons, up 3.9 tons (0.9%) [2]. Transaction and Demand - The building materials trading volume is 8.7 tons, down 2.3 tons (-21%); the apparent demand of five major steel products is 866.9 tons, down 49.5 tons (-5.4%); the apparent demand of rebar is 218.5 tons, down 13.7 tons (-5.9%); the apparent demand of hot - rolled coil is 314.3 tons, down 17.6 tons (-5.3%) [2]. Iron Ore Industry Iron Ore - related Prices and Spreads - The warehouse receipt costs of different iron ore powders all show declines, and the basis of the 01 contract has different changes. The 5 - 9, 9 - 1, and 1 - 5 spreads also have corresponding changes [4]. Spot Prices and Price Indexes - The spot prices of iron ore at Rizhao Port and price indexes such as the Singapore Exchange 62% Fe swap and Platts 62% Fe all decline [4]. Supply - The weekly arrival volume at 45 ports is 3218.4 tons, up 1189.3 tons (58.6%); the global weekly shipping volume is 3213.8 tons, down 174.6 tons (-5.2%); the national monthly import volume is 11632.6 tons, up 1111.6 tons (10.6%) [4]. Demand - The daily average hot metal output of 247 mills is 234.2 tons, down 2.1 tons (-0.9%); the daily average port clearance volume at 45 ports is 320.9 tons, down 15.5 tons (-4.6%); the national monthly pig iron output is 6604.6 tons, down 374.7 tons (-5.4%); the national monthly crude steel output is 7349.0 tons, down 387.8 tons (-5.0%) [4]. Inventory Changes - The port inventory at 45 ports is 14898.83 tons, up 184.8 tons (1.3%); the imported iron ore inventory of 247 mills is 6600.6 tons, up 160.1 tons (1.8%); the inventory available days of 64 mills is 21 days, unchanged [4]. Coke Industry Coke - related Prices and Spreads - The prices of Shanxi and Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke (warehouse receipt) are unchanged. The coke 01 and 05 contracts decline, and the coking profit is down [7]. Supply - The daily average output of all - sample coking plants is 63.6 tons, down 1.0 ton (-1.5%); the daily average output of 247 mills is 46.1 tons, down 0.1 ton (-0.34%) [7]. Demand - The hot metal output of 247 mills is 234.2 tons, down 2.1 tons (-0.94%) [7]. Inventory Changes - The total coke inventory is 887.1 tons, down 13 tons (-1.4%); the coke inventories of coking plants, mills, and ports all decline [7]. Supply - demand Gap - The coke supply - demand gap is -3.7 tons, down 0.1 ton (-2.2%) [7]. Coking Coal Industry Coking Coal - related Prices and Spreads - The prices of Shanxi medium - sulfur primary coking coal (warehouse receipt) are unchanged, while the prices of Mongolian 5 raw coal (warehouse receipt) and coking coal 01 and 05 contracts decline. The sample coal mine profit is up [7]. Supply - The raw coal output is 848.4 tons, down 3.4 tons (-0.4%); the clean coal output is 433.0 tons, down 2.0 tons (-0.5%) [7]. Demand - The demand for coking coal is mainly reflected in the coking production, with the daily average output of all - sample coking plants and 247 mills showing declines [7]. Inventory Changes - The clean coal inventory of Fenwei coal mines is 80.4 tons, down 0.8 tons (-0.9%); the coking coal inventories of coking plants and ports increase, while those of mills decrease [7].
《金融》日报-20251110
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-11-10 08:09
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given reports. 2. Core Views - The reports present the latest data on various financial products including stock index futures, treasury bond futures, precious metals, and container shipping industry, such as price differences, price changes, and related economic indicators [1][3][5][6]. 3. Summary by Directory Stock Index Futures (IF, IH, IC, IM) - **IF**: The IF term - spot price difference was -19.39, up 3.21 from the previous day, with a 1 - year percentile of 42.20% and an all - time percentile of 23.90%. The IF inter - term price differences showed various values and changes, e.g., the next - month minus current - month was -13.60, down 0.60 [1]. - **IH**: The IH term - spot price difference was -0.15, up 3.20 from the previous day, with a 1 - year percentile of 54.00% and an all - time percentile of 55.20%. Different inter - term price differences also had their own values and changes [1]. - **IC**: The IC term - spot price difference was -97.71, up 1.61 from the previous day, with a 1 - year percentile of 22.10% and an all - time percentile of 3.70%. The inter - term price differences had significant changes, like the quarterly - month minus current - month was -230.60, down 4.00 [1]. - **IM**: The IM term - spot price difference was -129.88, up 16.95 from the previous day, with a 1 - year percentile of 70.00% and an all - time percentile of 13.40%. The inter - term price differences also varied, e.g., the quarterly - month minus current - month was -302.40, down 1.40 [1]. - **Cross - variety Ratios**: Ratios such as CSI 500/HS300, IC/IF, etc., showed different values and changes. For example, CSI 500/HS300 was 1.5662, up 0.0011 from the previous day [1]. Treasury Bond Futures (TS, TF, T, TL) - **TS**: The TS basis was 1.6207, down 0.0267 from the previous day, with an all - time percentile of 27.90%. Inter - term price differences like current - quarter minus next - quarter was 0.0520, up 0.0040 [3]. - **TF**: The TF basis was 1.6520, up 0.0075 from the previous day, with an all - time percentile of 45.40%. The current - quarter minus next - quarter inter - term price difference was 0.0400, up 0.0100 [3]. - **T**: The T basis was 1.5768, down 0.0117 from the previous day, with an all - time percentile of 54.00%. The current - quarter minus next - quarter inter - term price difference was 0.2500, down 0.0150 [3]. - **TL**: The TL basis was 1.4255, up 0.1101 from the previous day, with an all - time percentile of 45.70%. The current - quarter minus next - quarter inter - term price difference was 0.2400, up 0.0300 [3]. - **Cross - variety Spreads**: Spreads like TS - TF, TS - T, etc., had their own values and changes. For example, TS - TF was -3.4400, up 0.0290 [3]. Precious Metals (Gold and Silver) - **Domestic Futures**: The AU2512 contract closed at 921.26 yuan/gram on November 7, up 3.46 yuan from November 6, with a 0.38% increase. The AG2512 contract closed at 11484 yuan/kg on November 7, up 57 yuan from November 6, with a 0.50% increase [5]. - **Foreign Futures**: The COMEX gold main contract closed at 4007.80 dollars/ounce on November 7, up 23.00 dollars from November 6, with a 0.58% increase. The COMEX silver main contract closed at 48.23 dollars/ounce on November 7, up 0.38 dollars from November 6, with a 0.79% increase [5]. - **Spot Prices**: The Shanghai Gold Exchange's gold T + D was 917.64 yuan/gram on November 7, up 0.13 yuan from November 6, with a 0.01% increase. The Shanghai Gold Exchange's silver T + D was 11480 yuan/kg on November 7, up 59 yuan from November 6, with a 0.52% increase [5]. - **Differences and Ratios**: Differences like gold TD - Shanghai gold main contract was -3.62, down 3.33 from the previous day, with a 1 - year percentile of 28.50%. Ratios like COMEX gold/silver was 83.11, down 0.18 from the previous day, with a - 0.22% change [5]. - **Interest Rates and Exchange Rates**: The 10 - year US Treasury bond yield was 4.11%, unchanged from the previous day. The 2 - year US Treasury bond yield was 3.55%, down 0.02 from the previous day, with a - 0.6% change. The US dollar index was 99.55, down 0.15 from the previous day, with a - 0.15% change [5]. - **Inventory and Holdings**: The Shanghai Futures Exchange's gold inventory was 89616, up 1800 from the previous day, with a 2.05% increase. The COMEX gold registered warehouse receipts were 19786210 ounces, down 126645 ounces from the previous day, with a - 0.64% change [5]. Container Shipping Industry - **Shipping Indexes**: The SCFIS (European route) was 1208.71 on November 3, down 104.0 from October 27, with a - 7.92% decrease. The SCFIS (US West route) was 1267.15 on November 3, up 159.8 from October 27, with a 14.43% increase [6]. - **Shanghai Export Container Freight Rates**: The SCFI composite index was 1495.10 on October 31, down 55.6 from October 24, with a - 3.59% decrease. The SCFI (European) was 1344 dollars/TEU on October 31, up 98.0 from October 24, with a 7.87% increase [6]. - **Futures Prices and Basis**: The EC2602 contract closed at 1592.0 on November 7, down 9.0 from November 6, with a - 0.56% decrease. The basis of the main contract was -290.5 on November 7, down 15.2 from November 6, with a 5.52% increase [6]. - **Fundamental Data**: The global container shipping capacity supply was 3338.54 million TEU on November 10, unchanged from November 9. The port on - time rate in Shanghai was 42.77% in November, up 24.46 percentage points from August, with a 133.59% increase [6].
广发期货《农产品》日报-20251110
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-11-10 07:47
Report Overview 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of Each Report - **Fats and Oils Industry**: The market has a bearish outlook on Malaysian palm oil inventory, and there is pressure for further decline in the external palm oil market. The domestic soybean oil supply is abundant, and the basis price may fluctuate within a certain range [1]. - **Sugar Industry**: The global sugar supply is abundant, and the raw sugar price remains weak. The domestic sugar market is affected by import quotas and may experience weak price fluctuations [3]. - **Pig Industry**: The pig price is expected to be moderately strong in November, and the market has entered a range - bound pattern. It is recommended to hold the 3 - 7 reverse spread and be cautiously bullish on single - side operations [5]. - **Cotton Industry**: The short - term cotton price may fluctuate within a range due to cost support and weak downstream demand [7]. - **Corn Industry**: The short - term corn supply is relatively stable, and the price may adjust in a range. It will be weak when the selling pressure emerges [8]. - **Meal Industry**: The domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are at a high level, but there is strong cost support. The price is expected to fluctuate within a range [12]. - **Egg Industry**: The egg supply pressure remains, and the demand is average. The egg price is expected to fluctuate widely at the bottom [15]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Fats and Oils Industry - **Price Changes**: On November 7th, compared with November 6th, soybean oil prices were stable, palm oil prices had minor fluctuations, and rapeseed oil prices increased slightly [1]. - **Market Situation**: Malaysian palm oil production increased in October, and the market has a bearish view on its inventory. The domestic soybean oil supply is under pressure, and the demand is weak [1]. Sugar Industry - **Price Changes**: On November 7th, sugar futures prices increased slightly, and spot prices in some regions changed. The raw sugar price is at a five - year low [3]. - **Industry Situation**: The national sugar production and sales increased year - on - year, and the industrial inventory decreased [3]. Pig Industry - **Price Changes**: On November 7th, compared with November 6th, futures prices decreased slightly, and spot prices in some regions increased [5]. - **Market Situation**: The market's reluctance to sell increased, and the planned November slaughter volume will slow down, which may support the pig price [5]. Cotton Industry - **Price Changes**: On November 7th, compared with November 6th, cotton futures prices decreased slightly, and spot prices increased slightly [7]. - **Industry Situation**: Industrial and commercial inventories increased, and textile exports decreased [7]. Corn Industry - **Price Changes**: On November 7th, compared with November 6th, corn futures prices decreased slightly, and spot prices in some regions increased [8]. - **Market Situation**: The selling pressure of corn is expected to increase, and the demand side is cautious in purchasing [8]. Meal Industry - **Price Changes**: On November 7th, compared with November 6th, soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and soybean prices had minor fluctuations [12]. - **Market Situation**: The demand for US soybeans is not strong, and the domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are high, but there is cost support [12]. Egg Industry - **Price Changes**: On November 7th, compared with November 6th, egg futures prices changed, and spot prices increased [15]. - **Market Situation**: The supply of eggs is under pressure, and the demand is average [15].
广发期货《金融》日报-20251110
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-11-10 07:16
Group 1: Stock Index Futures Spread Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View The report presents the spread data of stock index futures on November 10, 2025, including the current - futures spread, inter - period spread, and cross - variety ratio of IF, IH, IC, and IM, along with their changes from the previous day and historical quantiles [1]. Summary by Category - **Current - Futures Spread**: IF is - 19.39 (up 3.21), IH is - 0.15 (up 3.20), IC is - 97.71 (up 1.61), and IM is - 129.88 (up 16.95) [1]. - **Inter - period Spread**: Different combinations of inter - period spreads for IF, IH, IC, and IM are provided, with various changes and historical quantiles. For example, IF's next - month minus current - month is - 13.60 (down 0.60) [1]. - **Cross - Variety Ratio**: Such as CSI 500/HS300 is 1.5662 (up 0.0011), and IC/IF is 1.5517 (up 0.0003) [1]. Group 2: Treasury Bond Futures Spread Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View The report shows the spread data of treasury bond futures on November 10, 2025, including basis, inter - period spread, and cross - variety spread, along with their changes from the previous trading day and historical quantiles since listing [3]. Summary by Category - **Basis**: TS basis is 1.6207 (down 0.0267), TF is 1.6520 (up 0.0075), T is 1.5768 (down 0.0117), and TL is 1.4255 (up 0.1101) [3]. - **Inter - period Spread**: For example, TS's current - season minus next - season is 0.0520 (up 0.0040) [3]. - **Cross - Variety Spread**: TS - TF is - 3.4400 (up 0.0290), TS - T is - 5.9750 (up 0.0640) [3]. Group 3: Precious Metals Futures and Spot Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View The report provides the price data of precious metals futures and spot on November 10, 2025, including domestic and foreign futures closing prices, spot prices, spreads, ratios, interest rates, exchange rates, inventory, and positions, along with their changes and percentage changes [5]. Summary by Category - **Domestic Futures Closing Price**: AU2512 contract is 921.26 yuan/gram (up 0.38%), AG2512 contract is 11484 yuan/kg (up 0.50%) [5]. - **Foreign Futures Closing Price**: COMEX gold is 4007.80 dollars/ounce (up 0.58%), COMEX silver is 48.23 dollars/ounce (up 0.79%) [5]. - **Spot Price**: London gold and silver are 0.00 dollars/ounce, Shanghai Gold Exchange's gold T + D is 917.64 yuan/gram (up 0.01%), silver T + D is 11480 yuan/kg (up 0.52%) [5]. - **Spread**: Gold TD - Shanghai gold main contract is - 3.62 (down 3.33), silver TD - Shanghai silver main contract is - 4 (up 2) [5]. - **Ratio**: COMEX gold/silver is 83.11 (down 0.22%), SHFE gold/silver is 80.22 (down 0.12%) [5]. - **Interest Rate and Exchange Rate**: 10 - year US Treasury yield is 4.11% (unchanged), 2 - year is 3.55% (down 0.6%), 10 - year TIPS Treasury yield is 1.83% (unchanged), US dollar index is 99.55 (down 0.15%), offshore RMB exchange rate is 7.1252 (up 0.06%) [5]. - **Inventory and Position**: SHFE gold inventory is 89616 (up 2.05%), silver inventory is 623052 kg (down 2.64%), etc. [5]. Group 4: Container Shipping Industry Futures and Spot Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View The report offers the price and fundamental data of the container shipping industry on November 10, 2025, including shipping indices, futures prices, basis, and various fundamental indicators, along with their changes and percentage changes [6]. Summary by Category - **Shipping Index**: SCFIS (European route) is 1208.71 (down 7.92%), SCFIS (US West route) is 1267.15 (up 14.43%), SCFI composite index is 1495.10 (down 3.59%) [6]. - **Futures Price and Basis**: EC2602 is 1592.0 (down 0.56%), EC2512 (main contract) is 1812.0 (down 1.96%), basis (main contract) is - 290.5 (down 5.52%) [6]. - **Fundamental Data**: Global container shipping capacity supply is 3338.54 million TEU (unchanged), Shanghai port punctuality rate is 42.77% (up 133.59%), etc. [6].
广发期货《有色》日报-20251110
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-11-10 07:11
Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Core Views Steel Industry - Steel prices are unlikely to drop significantly due to tight carbon element supply and reasonable valuation. Single - side trading of rebar and hot - rolled coils may test previous lows, with rebar focusing on the 2900 - 3000 range support and hot - rolled coils on around 3200 support. The strategy of long coking coal and short hot - rolled coils arbitrage can be continued [2]. Iron Ore Industry - Iron ore futures are in a weak downward trend. With steel prices weakening and steel mill profitability declining, iron ore demand will be weak. The overall production of the Simandou project is progressing faster than expected, and it is expected to complete the first shipment of iron ore to the port in October. The strategy is to short iron ore futures on rallies and recommend long coking coal and short iron ore arbitrage [4][6]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry - Coke futures oscillated and declined last week. Although the third - round price increase was implemented and the fourth - round is expected to be implemented, coke production decreased due to losses, and demand was affected by environmental restrictions and weak steel prices. The strategy is to go long on coke 2601 contracts on dips in the 1700 - 1850 range and long coking coal and short coke for arbitrage. Coking coal futures also oscillated and declined. The spot market was strong, but there were concerns about high prices. The strategy is to go long on coking coal 2601 contracts on dips in the 1240 - 1350 range and long coking coal and short coke for arbitrage [7]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Industry Prices and Spreads - Rebar and hot - rolled coil spot and futures prices showed different changes. For example, rebar spot prices in North China increased by 10 yuan/ton, while those in South China decreased by 10 yuan/ton. Rebar 05 contract price decreased by 7 yuan/ton. Hot - rolled coil spot prices in East and South China decreased by 10 yuan/ton, and hot - rolled coil 05 contract price decreased by 11 yuan/ton. Steel billet price increased by 10 yuan/ton, and plate billet price remained unchanged. Profits of various steel products decreased [2]. Supply - Daily average hot metal output decreased by 2.1 to 234.2 (a decrease of 0.9%), five - major steel product output decreased by 18.5 to 856.7 (a decrease of 2.1%), rebar output decreased by 4.1 to 208.5 (a decrease of 1.9%), and hot - rolled coil output decreased by 5.4 to 318.2 (a decrease of 1.7%) [2]. Inventory - Five - major steel product inventory decreased by 10.2 to 1503.6 (a decrease of 0.7%), rebar inventory decreased by 10.0 to 592.5 (a decrease of 1.7%), and hot - rolled coil inventory increased by 3.9 to 410.5 (an increase of 0.9%) [2]. Transaction and Demand - Building materials trading volume decreased by 2.3 to 8.7 (a decrease of 21.0%), five - major steel product apparent demand decreased by 49.5 to 866.9 (a decrease of 5.4%), rebar apparent demand decreased by 13.7 to 218.5 (a decrease of 5.9%), and hot - rolled coil apparent demand decreased by 17.6 to 314.3 (a decrease of 5.3%) [2]. Iron Ore Industry Prices and Spreads - Iron ore warehouse receipt costs of various varieties decreased, such as the warehouse receipt cost of Carajás fines decreased by 7.7 to 836.3 (a decrease of 0.9%). 01 contract basis of some varieties changed, and spreads between different contracts also changed, like the 5 - 9 spread increased by 0.5 to 21.5 (an increase of 2.4%) [4]. Supply - 45 - port weekly arrivals increased by 1189.3 to 3218.4 (an increase of 58.6%), global weekly shipments decreased by 174.6 to 3213.8 (a decrease of 5.2%), and the national monthly import volume increased by 1111.6 to 11632.6 (an increase of 10.6%) [4]. Demand - 247 steel mills' daily average hot metal output decreased by 2.1 to 234.2 (a decrease of 0.9%), 45 - port daily average dispatch volume decreased by 15.5 to 320.9 (a decrease of 4.6%), national monthly pig iron output decreased by 374.7 to 6604.6 (a decrease of 5.4%), and national monthly crude steel output decreased by 387.8 to 7349.0 (a decrease of 5.0%) [4]. Inventory - 45 - port inventory increased by 184.8 to 14898.83 (an increase of 1.3%), 247 steel mills' imported ore inventory increased by 160.1 to 6600.6 (an increase of 1.8%), and 64 steel mills' inventory available days remained unchanged at 21.0 [4]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry Prices and Spreads - Coke and coking coal futures prices decreased. For example, coke 01 contract price decreased by 20 to 1757 (a decrease of 1.14%), and coking coal 01 contract price decreased by 21 to 1270 (a decrease of 1.6%). Some spot prices remained unchanged, while some coking coal prices decreased slightly, like Mongolian 5 raw coal (warehouse receipt) price decreased by 11 to 1362 (a decrease of 0.8%) [7]. Supply - Coke production decreased, with the daily average output of all - sample coking plants decreasing by 1.0 to 63.6 (a decrease of 1.5%) and 247 steel mills' daily average output decreasing by 0.1 to 46.1 (a decrease of 0.34%). Coking coal production also decreased slightly, with raw coal output decreasing by 3.4 to 848.4 (a decrease of 0.4%) and clean coal output decreasing by 2.0 to 433.0 (a decrease of 0.5%) [7]. Demand - 247 steel mills' hot metal output decreased by 2.1 to 234.2 (a decrease of 0.94%), and coke demand decreased as a result [7]. Inventory - Coke total inventory decreased by 13.0 to 887.1 (a decrease of 1.4%), with inventories in coking plants, steel mills, and ports all decreasing. Coking coal inventory increased in some places and decreased in others. For example, Fenwei coal mine clean coal inventory decreased by 0.8 to 80.4 (a decrease of 0.9%), while all - sample coking plants' coking coal inventory increased by 17.5 to 1070.0 (an increase of 1.7%) [7].
原木期货日报-20251110
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-11-10 07:08
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Report's Core View - The log futures market is expected to remain in a weak and volatile state under the pattern of strong supply and weak demand. Although the supply of logs is increasing and the spot price is falling, the current futures price is at a relatively low level, and the significant inversion of domestic and foreign prices provides certain support for the import cost, limiting the downside space of the futures price [2][3] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Futures and Spot Prices - Among log futures, the price of log 2511 remained unchanged at 742.0 yuan/cubic meter; log 2601 decreased by 0.5 yuan to 778.5 yuan/cubic meter, a decline of 0.06%; log 2603 increased by 1.5 yuan to 792.5 yuan/cubic meter, an increase of 0.19%; log 2605 decreased by 2.0 yuan to 805.5 yuan/cubic meter, a decline of 0.25%. The prices of most spot logs remained unchanged, with only the CFR price of 4 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine increasing by 1 dollar to 116 dollars/JAS cubic meter, an increase of 0.87% [1] Cost: Import Cost Calculation - The RMB - US dollar exchange rate was 7.124 yuan on November 7, remaining unchanged from the previous day. The import theoretical cost increased by 6.48 yuan to 812.22 yuan, an increase of 1% [1] Supply: Monthly - From September 30th to October 31st, the shipping volume from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea increased by 24.7 million cubic meters to 201.3 million cubic meters, a growth rate of 13.99%. The number of ships increased by 8 to 54, a growth rate of 17.39% [1] Inventory: Main Port Inventory (Weekly) - From October 24th to October 31st, the total inventory of coniferous logs in China increased by 40,000 cubic meters to 2.88 million cubic meters, a growth rate of 1.41%. The inventory in Shandong increased by 18,000 cubic meters, and the inventory in Jiangsu increased by 36,000 cubic meters to 822,600 cubic meters, a growth rate of 4.54% [1][2] Demand - From October 24th to October 31st, the average daily outbound volume in China decreased by 0.16 million cubic meters to 6.28 million cubic meters, a decline of 2%. The average daily outbound volume in Shandong decreased by 0.35 million cubic meters to 3.19 million cubic meters, a decline of 10%. The average daily outbound volume in Jiangsu increased by 0.10 million cubic meters to 2.33 million cubic meters, an increase of 4% [2]
全品种价差日报-20251110
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-11-10 06:26
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View The report presents the spot and futures prices, basis, basis rates, and historical quantiles of various commodities on November 10, 2025, including ferrous metals, non - ferrous metals, precious metals, agricultural products, energy and chemical products, and financial products, enabling investors to understand the market conditions of different commodities [1]. 3. Summary by Commodity Categories Ferrous Metals - **Silicon Iron (SF601)**: The spot price is 5526, the futures price is 5578, the basis is 130, and the basis rate is 0.94%, with a historical quantile of 62.10% [1]. - **Silicon Manganese (SM601)**: The spot price is 5890, the futures price is 5760, the basis is 130, and the basis rate is 2.26%, with a historical quantile of 49.60% [1]. - **Rebar (RB2601)**: The spot price in Shanghai is 3190, the futures price is 3034, the basis is 156, and the basis rate is 5.14%, with a historical quantile of 64.90% [1]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil (HC2601)**: The spot price in Shanghai is 3260, the futures price is 3245, the basis is 15, and the basis rate is 0.46%, with a historical quantile of 23.80% [1]. - **Iron Ore (I2601)**: The spot price of 62.5% Brazilian mixed powder at Rizhao Port is 836, the futures price is 812, the basis is 24, and the basis rate is - 1.38%, with a historical quantile of 58.90% [1]. - **Coke (J2601)**: The spot price is 1757, the futures price is 1732, the basis is 25, and the basis rate is 1.44%, with a historical quantile of 50.15% [1]. - **Coking Coal (JM2601)**: The spot price is 1362, the futures price is 1270, the basis is 92, and the basis rate is 7.24%, with a historical quantile of 49.10% [1]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper (CU2512)**: The spot price is 86015, the futures price is 85940, the basis is 75, and the basis rate is 0.09%, with a historical quantile of 53.75% [1]. - **Aluminum (AL2601)**: The spot price is 21540, the futures price is 21625, the basis is - 85, and the basis rate is - 0.39%, with a historical quantile of 26.45% [1]. - **Alumina (AO2601)**: The spot price is 2860, the futures price is 2783, the basis is 77, and the basis rate is 2.76%, with a historical quantile of 47.57% [1]. - **Zinc (ZN2512)**: The spot price is 22720, the futures price is 22570, the basis is 150, and the basis rate is 0.66%, with a historical quantile of 23.33% [1]. - **Tin (SN2512)**: The spot price is 283700, the futures price is 283510, the basis is 190, and the basis rate is 0.07%, with a historical quantile of 56.04% [1]. - **Nickel (NI2512)**: The spot price is 119825, the futures price is 119440, the basis is 385, and the basis rate is 0.32%, with a historical quantile of 76.45% [1]. - **Stainless Steel (SS2512)**: The spot price is 12970, the futures price is 12565, the basis is 405, and the basis rate is 3.22%, with a historical quantile of 78.11% [1]. - **Lithium Carbonate (LC2601)**: The spot price is 82300, the futures price is 80400, the basis is 1900, and the basis rate is 2.31%, with a historical quantile of 28.41% [1]. - **Industrial Silicon (SI2601)**: The spot price is 9450, the futures price is 9220, the basis is 230, and the basis rate is 2.49%, with a historical quantile of 19.07% [1]. Precious Metals - **Gold (AU2512)**: The spot price is 921.3, the futures price is 917.6, the basis is - 3.6, and the basis rate is - 0.39%, with a historical quantile of 15.90% [1]. - **Silver (AG2512)**: The spot price is 11484.0, the futures price is 11480.0, the basis is - 4.0, and the basis rate is - 0.03%, with a historical quantile of 80.90% [1]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal (M2601)**: The spot price in Jiangsu Zhangjiagang is 3058.0, the futures price is 2990, the basis is 68.0, and the basis rate is 2.27%, with a historical quantile of 37.50% [1]. - **Soybean Oil (Y2601)**: The spot price in Jiangsu Zhangjiagang is 8370, the futures price is 8184.0, the basis is 186.0, and the basis rate is 2.27%, with a historical quantile of 37.50% [1]. - **Palm Oil (P2601)**: The spot price at Huangpu Port is 8660.0, the futures price is 8570, the basis is 90.0, and the basis rate is 1.04%, with a historical quantile of 6.40% [1]. - **Rapeseed Meal (RM601)**: The spot price in Guangdong Zhanjiang is 2640, the futures price is 2539.0, the basis is 101.0, and the basis rate is 3.98%, with a historical quantile of 64.20% [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil (Oleo1)**: The spot price in Jiangsu Nantong is 9850, the futures price is 9533.0, the basis is 317.0, and the basis rate is 3.33%, with a historical quantile of 82.40% [1]. - **Corn (C2601)**: The spot price at Xizhou Port is 2160, the futures price is 2149.0, the basis is 11.0, and the basis rate is 0.51%, with a historical quantile of 47.80% [1]. - **Corn Starch (CS2601)**: The spot price in Jilin Changchun is 2550, the futures price is 2462.0, the basis is 88.0, and the basis rate is 3.57%, with a historical quantile of 40.90% [1]. - **Live Hogs (LH2601)**: The spot price in Henan is 11950, the futures price is 11865.0, the basis is 85.0, and the basis rate is 0.72%, with a historical quantile of 46.10% [1]. - **Eggs (JD2512)**: The spot price in Hebei Shijiazhuang is 3219.0, the futures price is 2820, the basis is - 399.0, and the basis rate is - 12.40%, with a historical quantile of 11.80% [1]. - **Cotton (CF601)**: The spot price in Xinjiang is 14678, the futures price is 13580.0, the basis is 1098.0, and the basis rate is 8.09%, with a historical quantile of 72.50% [1]. - **Sugar (SR601)**: The spot price at Liuzhou Station is 5760, the futures price is 5457.0, the basis is 303.0, and the basis rate is 5.55%, with a historical quantile of 49.40% [1]. - **Apples (AP601)**: The spot price is 9040.0, the futures price is 8840, the basis is 200.0, and the basis rate is 2.21%, with a historical quantile of 11.10% [1]. - **Red Dates (CJ601)**: The spot price in Hebei is 9590.0, the futures price is 9000, the basis is 590.0, and the basis rate is 6.15%, with a historical quantile of 69.60% [1]. Energy and Chemical Products - **Para - Xylene (PX601)**: The spot price at Chinese main ports is 6780.0, the futures price is 6756.0, the basis is 24.0, and the basis rate is 0.35%, with a historical quantile of 22.30% [1]. - **PTA (TA601)**: The spot price in East China is 4664.0, the futures price is 4590.0, the basis is 74.0, and the basis rate is 1.59%, with a historical quantile of 25.70% [1]. - **Ethylene Glycol (EG2601)**: The spot price in East China is 4010.0, the futures price is 3942.0, the basis is 68.0, and the basis rate is 1.73%, with a historical quantile of 82.20% [1]. - **Polyester Staple Fiber (PFS12)**: The spot price in East China is 6330.0, the futures price is 6214.0, the basis is 116.0, and the basis rate is 1.87%, with a historical quantile of 71.40% [1]. - **Styrene (EB2512)**: The spot price in East China is 6345.0, the futures price is 6317.0, the basis is 28.0, and the basis rate is 0.44%, with a historical quantile of 34.90% [1]. - **Methanol (MA601)**: The spot price in Jiangsu Taicang is 2112.0, the futures price is 2090.0, the basis is 22.0, and the basis rate is 1.04%, with a historical quantile of 24.30% [1]. - **Urea (UR601)**: The spot price in Shandong is 1667.0, the futures price is 1600.0, the basis is 67.0, and the basis rate is 4.02%, with a historical quantile of 2.50% [1]. - **LLDPE (L2601)**: The spot price in Shandong is 6850.0, the futures price is 6802.0, the basis is 48.0, and the basis rate is 0.71%, with a historical quantile of 36.60% [1]. - **PP (PP2601)**: The spot price in Zhejiang is 6500.0, the futures price is 6464.0, the basis is 36.0, and the basis rate is 0.56%, with a historical quantile of 35.40% [1]. - **PVC (V2601)**: The spot price in Changzhou is 4611.0, the futures price is 4520.0, the basis is 91.0, and the basis rate is 2.01%, with a historical quantile of 60.40% [1]. - **Caustic Soda (SH601)**: The spot price in Shandong is 2500.0, the futures price is 2331.0, the basis is 169.0, and the basis rate is 7.25%, with a historical quantile of 76.60% [1]. - **LPG (PG2512)**: The spot price in Guangzhou is 4448.0, the futures price is 4272.0, the basis is 176.0, and the basis rate is 4.12%, with a historical quantile of 41.50% [1]. - **Asphalt (BU2601)**: The spot price in Shandong is 3050.0, the futures price is 3048.0, the basis is 2.0, and the basis rate is 0.07%, with a historical quantile of 52.80% [1]. - **Butadiene Rubber (BR2601)**: The spot price is 10200.0, the futures price is 10190.0, the basis is 10.0, and the basis rate is 0.10%, with a historical quantile of 28.90% [1]. - **Float Glass (FG601)**: The spot price in Shahe is 1091.0, the futures price is 1048.0, the basis is 43.0, and the basis rate is 4.10%, with a historical quantile of 62.18% [1]. - **Soda Ash (SA601)**: The spot price in Shahe is 1210.0, the futures price is 1160.0, the basis is 50.0, and the basis rate is 4.31%, with a historical quantile of 21.21% [1]. - **Natural Rubber (RU2601)**: The spot price in Shanghai is 14995.0, the futures price is 14550.0, the basis is 445.0, and the basis rate is 3.06%, with a historical quantile of 72.44% [1]. Financial Products - **IF2512.CFE**: The spot price is 4678.8, the futures price is 4659.4, the basis is - 19.4, and the basis rate is - 0.42%, with a historical quantile of 23.90% [1]. - **IH2512.CFE**: The spot price is 3038.3, the futures price is 3038.2, the basis is - 0.1, and the basis rate is - 0.00%, with a historical quantile of 55.20% [1]. - **IC2512.CFE**: The spot price is 7327.9, the futures price is 7230.2, the basis is - 97.7, and the basis rate is - 1.35%, with a historical quantile of 3.70% [1]. - **IM2512.CFE**: The spot price is 7541.9, the futures price is 7412.0, the basis is - 129.9, and the basis rate is - 1.75%, with a historical quantile of 13.40% [1]. - **2 - year Treasury Bond (TS2512)**: The spot price is 102.47, the futures price is 100.04, the basis is 2.43, and the basis rate is 2.43%, with a historical quantile of 18.30% [1]. - **5 - year
《农产品》日报-20251110
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-11-10 06:15
Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the reports. Core Views Oils and Fats - Market has a bearish outlook on Malaysian palm oil inventory, putting downward pressure on external palm oil prices. The Dalian palm oil is in a rebound phase after an over - decline, and attention should be paid to whether it can break through the resistance in the 8800 - 8900 yuan range. - China will suspend retaliatory tariffs on US agricultural products starting from the 10th, but US soybeans still face a 13% tariff, making them relatively expensive. There is no evidence of large - scale Chinese purchases of US soybeans, so CBOT soybeans lack the momentum to rise continuously. US biodiesel policy uncertainty affects the industrial use of US soybean oil, causing CBOT soybean oil to trade in a narrow range. Domestically, soybean supply is abundant, and the basis price may fluctuate within a certain range [1]. Sugar - The global sugar supply is abundant, causing the raw sugar price to remain weak and reach a five - year low. The domestic sugar market is less affected by the decline due to import quotas. There is an expectation of a delayed start of the sugar - crushing season in Guangxi, and the market consumption is mainly on - demand, with general trading volume. The sugar price is expected to move weakly in a volatile manner [3]. Pork - The market's reluctance to sell and the increase in secondary fattening have supported the pig price to be slightly stronger. According to the planned November slaughter volume, the overall slaughter progress will slow down, which may boost the November pig price. The market is in a range - bound pattern. It is recommended to hold the 3 - 7 reverse spread and be cautiously bullish on single - side operations [5]. Cotton - The upward movement of Zhengzhou cotton faces hedging pressure, but the pressure is not concentrated due to cost differences between northern and southern Xinjiang and pre - hedging of some new cotton. There is cost support at the lower level. The downstream demand is weak, but the finished - product inventory pressure is not large, and textile mills have a rigid demand for cotton. In the short term, the cotton price may trade in a range [7]. Corn - As the early high - moisture corn is released and the weather improves, farmers' willingness to sell is price - sensitive. Due to snow and transportation issues in the Northeast and price support in North China, the supply volume has decreased, and the price has rebounded locally. In November, there is still selling pressure from the concentrated supply of corn, but there is also cost and purchase - storage policy support. The demand side is cautious, and the corn price is expected to be volatile in the short term and may weaken when the selling pressure emerges [8]. Meal - The demand for US soybeans is not well - supported due to the 13% tariff, and it is difficult for US soybeans to continue rising. The domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are at a high level, but there is strong cost support. The near - term shipping schedule has a negative crushing margin, and there is a 7.5 million - ton supply gap from November to January. The soybean meal price is expected to trade in a range [12]. Eggs - The inventory of laying hens in November is expected to remain relatively stable at a high level, and the egg supply pressure persists. The terminal market demand is general, and the egg price is expected to fluctuate widely at the bottom [15]. Summary by Industry Oils and Fats - **Soybean Oil**: On November 7, the spot price in Jiangsu was 8390 yuan, unchanged from the previous day. The futures price of Y2601 was 8188 yuan, and the basis was 206 yuan. The number of warehouse receipts decreased by 1.69% to 26014 [1]. - **Palm Oil**: The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong on November 7 was 8560 yuan, up 0.23%. The futures price of P2601 was 8660 yuan, and the basis was - 100 yuan. The盘面 import cost was 9102.5 yuan, and the import profit was - 411 yuan [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The spot price of third - grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu on November 7 was 9800 yuan, up 0.20%. The futures price of OI601 was 9533 yuan, and the basis was 267 yuan [1]. Sugar - **Futures Market**: On November 7, the price of SR2601 was 5457 yuan/ton, up 0.17%. The price of SR2605 was 5397 yuan/ton, up 0.17%. The price of ICE raw sugar was 14.13 cents/pound, down 0.63% [3]. - **Spot Market**: The spot price in Nanning was 5780 yuan/ton, up 0.52%, and the basis was 383 yuan, up 5.80%. The spot price in Kunming was 5650 yuan/ton, down 0.18%, and the basis was 253 yuan, down 6.99% [3]. - **Industry Situation**: The national cumulative sugar production was 1116.21 million tons, up 12.03%. The cumulative national sugar sales volume was 1048.00 million tons, up 9.17%. The national cumulative sugar sales rate was 93.90%, down 2.60% [3]. Pork - **Futures Market**: On November 7, the price of LH2605 was 12005 yuan/ton, down 0.17%. The price of LH2601 was 11865 yuan/ton, down 0.63%. The 1 - 5 spread was - 140 yuan, down 64.71% [5]. - **Spot Market**: The spot price in Henan was 11950 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan. The spot price in Shandong was 12050 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan. The spot price in Sichuan was 11450 yuan/ton, unchanged [5]. - **Industry Situation**: The daily slaughter volume of sample slaughterhouses was 162310, up 1.03%. The weekly white - striped pork price was 0 yuan, down 100%. The weekly piglet price was 17 yuan/kg, down 15% [5]. Cotton - **Futures Market**: On November 7, the price of CF2605 was 13590 yuan/ton, down 0.18%. The price of CF2601 was 13580 yuan/ton, down 0.18%. The price of ICE US cotton was 64.48 cents/pound, down 1.44% [7]. - **Spot Market**: The arrival price of Xinjiang cotton was 14678 yuan/ton, up 0.41%. The CC Index: 3128B was 14859 yuan/ton, up 0.26%. The FC Index:M: 1% was 13087 yuan/ton, down 0.83% [7]. - **Industry Situation**: The industrial inventory was 80.93 million tons, down 4.3%. The import volume was 10 million tons, up 42.9%. The textile industry's inventory year - on - year was - 25% [7]. Corn - **Corn**: On November 7, the price of C2601 was 2149 yuan/ton, down 0.23%. The basis was 11 yuan, up 375%. The 1 - 5 spread was - 92 yuan, down 2.22%. The import profit was 214 yuan, up 9.49% [8]. - **Corn Starch**: The price of CS2601 was 2462 yuan/ton, down 0.28%. The basis was 48 yuan, up 17.07%. The 1 - 5 spread was - 98 yuan, down 2.08% [8]. Meal - **Soybean Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu was 3060 yuan, unchanged. The futures price of M2601 was 3058 yuan, down 0.33%. The basis was 2 yuan, up 125%. The Brazilian 2 - month shipping schedule's crushing margin was 43 yuan, up 295.5% [12]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu was 2540 yuan, down 0.39%. The futures price of RM2601 was 2539 yuan, down 0.39%. The basis was 11 yuan, unchanged. The Canadian 1 - month shipping schedule's crushing margin was 757 yuan, up 3.27% [12]. Eggs - **Futures Market**: On November 7, the price of JD12 was 3219 yuan/500KG, down 0.25%. The price of JD01 was 3391 yuan/500KG, up 0.15%. The 12 - 01 spread was - 172 yuan, down 8.18% [15]. - **Spot Market**: The egg - laying hen farm price was 3.02 yuan/jin, up 3.12%. The basis was - 196 yuan/500KG, up 33.66% [15]. - **Industry Situation**: The price of egg - laying chicken seedlings was 2.80 yuan/feather, unchanged. The price of culled chickens was 4.03 yuan/jin, down 1.95%. The egg - feed ratio was 2.38, up 1.28%. The breeding profit was - 24.44 yuan/feather, up 6.36% [15].