Guang Fa Qi Huo
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广发期货《黑色》日报-20251111
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-11-11 04:47
1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Steel Industry - The steel market shows a situation where the previous week's data indicated a decline in apparent demand, a slowdown in destocking, and continued production cuts by steel mills. The decline in hot metal production restrains iron ore. Considering the high steel inventory and the winter storage pressure, the hot metal production of steel mills for the January contract is likely to fall rather than rise. The iron element supply on the January contract is turning to be loose, and the iron element chain has the basis for negative feedback, with interference from the steel mills' winter iron ore replenishment. The carbon element supply is tight, and it is expected that the iron element will be generally weaker than the carbon element. Unilaterally, pay attention to the performance of the support levels of 3000 for rebar and 3200 for hot - rolled coils. The strategy of long coking coal and short hot - rolled coils arbitrage can continue to be held [2]. Iron Ore Industry - The iron ore futures rebounded in the afternoon yesterday. On the supply side, the global iron ore shipments decreased last week, and the arrivals at 45 ports dropped significantly. Based on recent shipment data, the average future arrivals are expected to increase. On the demand side, the profit margins of steel mills have declined significantly, the hot metal production has dropped from a high level, and the steel mills' replenishment demand has weakened. The steel production and inventory decreased slightly, and the apparent demand dropped significantly. The port inventory increased, the port clearance volume increased slightly, and the steel mills' equity iron ore inventory rose. Looking ahead, due to the weak steel prices, the profitability of steel mills will continue to decline, and the weak demand will force iron ore to operate weakly. Rio Tinto's third - quarter report shows that the overall commissioning progress of the Simandou project is faster than expected. It is recommended to short iron ore futures on rallies and conduct an arbitrage of long coking coal and short iron ore [5]. Coking Coal and Coke Industry - For coking coal, the futures showed a volatile decline. The Shanxi spot auction prices were strong, and the Mongolian coal quotes fluctuated with the futures. The domestic coking coal market continued to be strong, and downstream still had replenishment demand, but the rapid rise in coking coal made traders cautious. Some shut - down coal mines in Shanxi, Luliang, Linfen, and Wuhai began to resume production, and it is expected that the coking coal supply will increase, but the production recovery is limited. Since November, the Mongolian coal customs clearance has increased significantly, the port inventory has rebounded from a low level, and the Mongolian coal quotes have loosened. The demand for coking coal has weakened due to the decline in hot metal production caused by profit decline and environmental restrictions. The coal mines and steel mills reduced inventory, while the coking plants, coal washing plants, ports, and terminals increased inventory. The strategy is to be cautiously bullish on the future market, and it is recommended to go long on coking coal 2601 on dips in the range of 1250 - 1350 and conduct an arbitrage of long coking coal and short coke, while guarding against the negative feedback risk caused by falling steel prices. - For coke, the futures also showed a volatile decline. The spot market had a different rhythm from the futures. The port trade quotes were stable, and the mainstream coking enterprises' third - round price increase was implemented, and the fourth - round increase was initiated. The coking coal price is strong, providing cost support for coke, but coking enterprises still face losses after the price increase, and their production has decreased. The demand for coke has been affected by environmental restrictions in Tangshan and Shanxi, resulting in a significant decline in hot metal production, weak steel prices, and low steel mill profits. The coking plants, ports, and steel mills all reduced inventory slightly, and the overall inventory decreased slightly from the middle level. Coke is still expected to increase in price due to cost support. It is recommended to go long on coke 2601 on dips in the range of 1700 - 1850 and conduct an arbitrage of long coking coal and short coke, while guarding against the negative feedback risk caused by falling steel prices [8]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Steel Industry Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar: The spot prices in East China, North China, and South China remained unchanged at 3190 yuan/ton, 3200 yuan/ton, and 3260 yuan/ton respectively. The 05, 10, and 01 contracts increased by 7 yuan/ton, 4 yuan/ton, and 10 yuan/ton respectively [2]. - Hot - rolled coils: The spot price in East China increased by 10 yuan/ton to 3270 yuan/ton, while those in North China and South China remained unchanged. The 05, 10, and 01 contracts increased by 9 yuan/ton, 7 yuan/ton, and 7 yuan/ton respectively [2]. Cost and Profit - The billet price remained at 2940 yuan/ton, and the slab price remained at 3730 yuan/ton. The profits of various regions and production methods all decreased [2]. Production - The daily average hot metal production was 234.2 tons, a decrease of 2.1 tons (- 0.9%). The production of five major steel products was 856.7 tons, a decrease of 18.5 tons (- 2.1%). The rebar production was 208.5 tons, a decrease of 4.1 tons (- 1.9%), including a decrease in electric - furnace production by 0.3 tons (- 0.9%) and a decrease in converter production by 3.8 tons (- 2.1%). The hot - rolled coil production was 318.2 tons, a decrease of 5.4 tons (- 1.7%) [2]. Inventory - The inventory of five major steel products was 1503.6 tons, a decrease of 10.2 tons (- 0.7%). The rebar inventory was 592.5 tons, a decrease of 10.0 tons (- 1.7%), and the hot - rolled coil inventory was 410.5 tons, an increase of 3.9 tons (0.9%) [2]. Transaction and Demand - The building materials trading volume was 10.8 tons, an increase of 2.1 tons (23.8%). The apparent demand for five major steel products was 866.9 tons, a decrease of 49.5 tons (- 5.4%). The apparent demand for rebar was 218.5 tons, a decrease of 13.7 tons (- 5.9%), and the apparent demand for hot - rolled coils was 314.3 tons, a decrease of 17.6 tons (- 5.3%) [2]. Iron Ore Industry Iron Ore - Related Prices and Spreads - The warehouse - receipt costs of various iron ore types decreased, and the basis of the 01 contract for some types changed. The 5 - 9, 9 - 1, and 1 - 5 spreads also changed [5]. Spot Prices and Price Indexes - The spot prices of some iron ore types at Rizhao Port increased slightly, while the Singapore Exchange 62% Fe swap and the Platts 62% Fe index decreased [5]. Supply - The 45 - port arrivals (weekly) were 2741.2 tons, a decrease of 477.2 tons (- 14.8%). The global shipments (weekly) were 3069.0 tons, a decrease of 144.8 tons (- 4.5%). The national monthly import volume increased by 10.6% [5]. Demand - The daily average hot metal production of 247 steel mills (weekly) was 234.2 tons, a decrease of 2.1 tons (- 0.9%). The 45 - port daily average port clearance volume increased slightly. The national monthly pig iron and crude steel production decreased [5]. Inventory - The 45 - port inventory increased by 1.3%, and the 247 steel mills' imported iron ore inventory increased by 1.8% [5]. Coking Coal and Coke Industry Coking Coal - Related Prices and Spreads - The coking coal 01 and 05 contracts decreased, and the basis and spreads also changed. The sample coal mine profit decreased [8]. Overseas Coal Prices and Upstream Coking Coal Prices - The Australian Peak Downs coking coal arrival price remained unchanged, and the coking coal (Shanxi warehouse - receipt) price increased slightly [8]. Supply - The coking coal production of Fenwei sample coal mines and the coking coal production of the whole sample coking plants decreased. The coke production of 247 steel mills and the whole sample coking plants also decreased [8]. Demand - The hot metal production and coke production decreased [8]. Inventory - The coking coal inventory of various entities changed, with some increasing and some decreasing. The total coke inventory and the inventory of various entities also changed [8].
广发期货《有色》日报-20251111
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-11-11 04:30
Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views Tin - The supply of tin ore remains tight, and the supply improvement is limited. The demand is weak, and the traditional consumption decline cannot be compensated by the new - demand growth. With the expected end of the US government shutdown and improved market sentiment, long positions should be held. The subsequent trend depends on the macro - end and the supply recovery in Myanmar [1]. Nickel - The macro - environment has some pressure, and the industry is multi - empty intertwined. The supply is expected to be relatively loose in the medium - term, and the price is expected to fluctuate within a range, with the main contract referring to 118,000 - 124,000. Attention should be paid to macro - expectations and Indonesian industrial policies [4]. Stainless Steel - The policy and macro - drive are weakening, the supply pressure remains, and the demand is not significantly boosted. The short - term price is expected to be weakly volatile, with the main contract referring to 12,500 - 13,000. Follow - up attention should be paid to macro - expectations and steel mill supply [6]. Lithium Carbonate - The macro and policy environment is favorable, and the capital is optimistic. The fundamentals show a slight increase in production. The short - term price has a strong reality support, but the upward movement is mainly driven by funds. The subsequent trend depends on the demand change in the off - season and the upstream project release [9]. Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon market still faces inventory accumulation pressure in November, but it is less than in October. The price is expected to oscillate at a low level, with the main range of 8,500 - 9,500 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the digestion of warehouse receipts after the concentrated cancellation of the November contract [10]. Polysilicon - The polysilicon market maintains a situation of both supply and demand decline, with inventory accumulation expectations in each link. The price is expected to oscillate in a high - level range. The trading strategy includes low - level trial - buying in the futures market, selling put options in the options market, and holding or taking profits in the equity market [12]. Aluminum - Alumina prices are expected to remain weakly volatile, with the main contract referring to 2,750 - 2,900 yuan/ton. The electrolytic aluminum price will be in a game between event - drive and weak fundamentals, with the main contract referring to 21,000 - 21,800 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to relevant factors such as LME warehouse receipts and overseas macro - trends [15]. Copper - The copper price rebounded slightly. In the macro - aspect, there may be a "vacuum period" in November. Fundamentally, the supply of copper ore is tight, and the demand has strong resilience. The long - term supply - demand contradiction supports the upward movement of the price center. The main contract should pay attention to the 84,000 - 85,000 support [17]. Zinc - The liquidity risk of zinc is expected to be mitigated. The supply pressure may be limited in the future, and the demand is average. The LME zinc has upward pressure, while the export of zinc ingots may boost the domestic price. The main contract refers to 22,300 - 23,000 [20]. Aluminum Alloy - The casting aluminum alloy market is strongly volatile. The cost has rigid support, and the supply - demand is in a tight balance. The ADC12 price is expected to maintain a strong - side oscillation, with the main contract referring to 20,400 - 21,100 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to factors such as scrap aluminum supply and inventory changes [22]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Tin - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 tin price increased by 0.74% to 285,800 yuan/ton, and the SMM 1 tin premium increased by 30% to 650 yuan/ton. The import loss decreased by 7.99% to - 14,989.79 yuan/ton [1]. - **Fundamentals**: In September, tin ore imports decreased by 15.13% month - on - month, and the SMM refined tin output in October increased by 53.09% month - on - month. The inventory of SHEF and social inventory increased [1]. Nickel - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price increased by 0.25% to 121,200 yuan/ton, and the 1 Jinchuan nickel premium increased by 20% to 3,600 yuan/ton. The import loss increased by 7.99% to - 1,825 yuan/ton [4]. - **Fundamentals**: China's refined nickel production increased by 0.84% month - on - month, and the import volume increased by 124.36% month - on - month. The SHFE and social inventories increased [4]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Basis**: The price of 304/2B stainless steel coils remained unchanged at 12,800 yuan/ton, and the futures - spot price difference decreased by 9.88% to 365 yuan/ton [6]. - **Fundamentals**: China's 300 - series stainless steel crude steel production increased by 0.38% month - on - month, and the net export volume decreased by 9.83% month - on - month. The 300 - series social inventory decreased slightly [6]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Basis**: The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price increased by 0.44% to 80,750 yuan/ton, and the basis decreased by 88.49% to 290 yuan/ton [9]. - **Fundamentals**: In October, lithium carbonate production increased by 5.73% month - on - month, and the demand increased by 8.70% month - on - month. The total inventory decreased by 10.90% month - on - month [9]. Industrial Silicon - **Price and Basis**: The price of some industrial silicon spot increased by 50 yuan/ton, and the futures price increased by 70 yuan/ton to 9,290 yuan/ton. The basis of some varieties decreased [10]. - **Fundamentals**: The national industrial silicon production increased by 7.46% month - on - month, and the export volume decreased by 8.36% month - on - month. The social inventory decreased slightly [10]. Polysilicon - **Price and Basis**: The N - type polysilicon average price remained unchanged, and the futures price increased by 0.95% to 53,720 yuan/ton. The N - type material basis decreased by 49.75% [12]. - **Fundamentals**: The polysilicon production decreased by 4.26% week - on - week, and the net export volume decreased by 56.83% month - on - month. The polysilicon inventory decreased slightly [12]. Aluminum - **Price and Basis**: The SMM A00 aluminum price decreased by 0.23% to 21,490 yuan/ton, and the import loss increased by 202.3 yuan/ton to - 2,316 yuan/ton [15]. - **Fundamentals**: In October, the alumina production increased by 2.39% month - on - month, and the electrolytic aluminum production increased by 3.52% month - on - month. The aluminum profile and cable operating rates decreased [15]. Copper - **Price and Basis**: The SMM 1 electrolytic copper price increased by 0.60% to 86,232 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap price difference increased by 13.58% to 3,394 yuan/ton [17]. - **Fundamentals**: In October, the electrolytic copper production decreased by 2.62% month - on - month, and the import volume increased by 26.50% month - on - month. The domestic social inventory decreased [17]. Zinc - **Price and Basis**: The SMM 0 zinc ingot price decreased by 0.31% to 22,570 yuan/ton, and the import loss increased by 596.07 yuan/ton to - 4,818 yuan/ton [20]. - **Fundamentals**: In October, the refined zinc production increased by 2.85% month - on - month, and the zinc ingot social inventory decreased by 1.30% week - on - week [20]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Basis**: The SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price remained unchanged at 21,450 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap price difference in Foshan decreased by 2.78% to 1,751 yuan/ton [22]. - **Fundamentals**: In October, the regenerated aluminum alloy ingot production decreased by 2.42% month - on - month, and the social inventory increased by 1.82% week - on - week [22].
《有色》日报-20251111
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-11-11 03:12
Group 1: Tin Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The market sentiment has improved with the expected end of the US government shutdown, and the fundamentals are relatively strong. Long positions should be held. The future trend of tin prices depends on the supply recovery in Myanmar in the fourth quarter. If the supply recovers smoothly, tin prices may weaken; otherwise, they are expected to remain strong [1]. Summary by Directory - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 tin increased by 0.74% to 285,800 yuan/ton, and SMM 1 tin premium increased by 30% to 650 yuan/ton [1]. - **Internal and External Price Ratio and Import Profit and Loss**: The import loss decreased by 7.99% to -14,989.79 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai-London ratio was 7.94 [1]. - **Monthly Spread**: The spreads between different contracts showed various changes, such as the 2511 - 2512 spread decreasing by 20.83% to -580 [1]. - **Fundamental Data**: In September, tin ore imports decreased by 15.13% to 8,714 tons, and SMM refined tin production in October increased by 53.09% to 16,090 tons [1]. - **Inventory Change**: SHEF inventory increased by 1.23% to 5,992 tons, and social inventory increased by 5.22% to 7,033 tons [1]. Group 2: Nickel Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The macro situation exerts some pressure, and the fundamentals are mixed. The nickel price is expected to fluctuate within a range, with the main contract reference range of 118,000 - 124,000 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to macro expectations and Indonesian industrial policies [4]. Summary by Directory - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel increased by 0.25% to 121,200 yuan/ton, and 1 Jinchuan nickel premium increased by 20% to 3,600 yuan/ton [4]. - **Futures Import Profit and Loss and Shanghai-London Ratio**: The futures import loss increased by 7.99% to -1,825 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai-London ratio was 7.92 [4]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 2512 - 2601 spread remained unchanged at -170 [4]. - **Supply, Demand, and Inventory**: China's refined nickel production increased by 0.84% to 35,900 tons, and SHFE inventory increased by 1.19% to 37,187 tons [4]. Group 3: Stainless Steel Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The policy and macro drivers are weakening, and the fundamentals have not improved significantly. The short - term stainless steel price is expected to weaken and fluctuate, with the main contract reference range of 12,500 - 13,000 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to macro expectations and steel mill supply [6]. Summary by Directory - **Price and Basis**: The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) remained unchanged at 12,800 yuan/ton, and the spot - futures price difference decreased by 9.88% to 365 yuan/ton [6]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 2512 - 2601 spread remained unchanged at -5 [6]. - **Fundamental Data**: China's 300 - series stainless steel crude steel production increased by 0.38% to 182.17 million tons, and the net export volume decreased by 9.83% to 29.82 million tons [6]. - **Inventory**: 300 - series social inventory decreased by 0.65% to 48.89 million tons, and SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 0.08% to 7.20 million tons [6]. Group 4: Lithium Carbonate Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The short - term fundamentals support the price, but the upward movement of the market is mainly driven by funds. The market may fluctuate widely in the short term. Attention should be paid to the marginal changes in demand after the peak season and the release speed of upstream projects [9]. Summary by Directory - **Price and Basis**: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 0.44% to 80,750 yuan/ton, and the basis (SMM electric carbon benchmark) decreased by 88.49% to 290 yuan/ton [9]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 2511 - 2512 spread increased by 780 to -1,700 [9]. - **Fundamental Data**: Lithium carbonate production in October increased by 5.73% to 92,260 tons, and demand increased by 8.70% to 126,961 tons [9]. - **Inventory**: Lithium carbonate total inventory in October decreased by 10.90% to 84,234 tons [9]. Group 5: Industrial Silicon Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The industrial silicon market still faces inventory accumulation pressure in November, but it is less than in October. Prices are expected to fluctuate at a low level, with the main price range between 8,500 - 9,500 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the digestion of warehouse receipts after the concentrated cancellation of November contracts [10]. Summary by Directory - **Price and Basis**: The price of East China SI4210 industrial silicon increased by 0.52% to 9,750 yuan/ton, and the basis (SI4210 benchmark) decreased by 6.25% to -340 [10]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 2511 - 2512 spread increased by 27.52% to -242 [10]. - **Fundamental Data**: National industrial silicon production increased by 7.46% to 45.22 million tons, and the export volume decreased by 8.36% to 7.02 million tons [10]. - **Inventory**: Xinjiang factory inventory increased by 3.70% to 11.21 million tons, and social inventory decreased by 1.08% to 55.20 million tons [10]. Group 6: Polysilicon Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The polysilicon market maintains a situation of both supply and demand decline, with an expectation of inventory accumulation in each link. Prices are expected to fluctuate at a high level. Attention should be paid to the recovery of component prices, the establishment of platform companies, and the increase in demand orders [12]. Summary by Directory - **Price and Futures Spread**: Spot prices were stable, and futures prices increased by 0.95% to 53,720 yuan/ton. The spreads between different contracts showed various changes [12]. - **Fundamental Data (Weekly)**: Silicon wafer production decreased by 5.55% to 13.45 GW, and polysilicon production decreased by 4.26% to 2.70 million tons [12]. - **Fundamental Data (Monthly)**: Polysilicon production increased by 3.08% to 13.40 million tons, and the net export volume decreased by 56.83% to 0.09 million tons [12]. - **Inventory Change**: Polysilicon inventory decreased by 0.77% to 25.90 million tons, and silicon wafer inventory decreased by 7.45% to 17.52 GW [12]. Group 7: Aluminum Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View - **Alumina**: Prices are expected to remain weak and fluctuate, with the main contract reference range of 2,750 - 2,900 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the production reduction of high - cost enterprises [15]. - **Aluminum**: Prices will fluctuate in the short term between event - driven factors and weak fundamentals, with the main contract reference range of 21,000 - 21,800 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to LME warehouse receipt flows, domestic inventory changes, and overseas macro trends [15]. Summary by Directory - **Price and Spread**: SMM A00 aluminum decreased by 0.23% to 21,490 yuan/ton, and the 2511 - 2512 spread decreased by 10 to -45 [15]. - **Fundamental Data**: Alumina production in October increased by 2.39% to 778.53 million tons, and electrolytic aluminum production increased by 3.52% to 374.21 million tons [15]. - **Inventory**: China's electrolytic aluminum social inventory remained unchanged at 62.70 million tons, and LME inventory decreased by 0.36% to 54.7 million tons [15]. Group 8: Copper Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The copper price rebounded slightly. In the medium - to - long term, the supply - demand contradiction supports the upward movement of the bottom price. Attention should be paid to the marginal changes in demand and overseas liquidity. The main contract should focus on the support at 84,000 - 85,000 [17]. Summary by Directory - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper increased by 0.60% to 86,232 yuan/ton, and SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium increased by 15 to 55 [17]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 2511 - 2512 spread increased by 20 to 0 [17]. - **Fundamental Data**: Electrolytic copper production in October decreased by 2.62% to 109.16 million tons, and the domestic mainstream port copper concentrate inventory increased by 0.57% to 62.97 million tons [17]. - **Inventory**: Domestic social inventory decreased by 2.10% to 19.59 million tons, and LME inventory increased by 1.06% to 13.59 million tons [17]. Group 9: Zinc Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The Shanghai zinc market oscillated at a high level. The supply pressure may be limited in the future, and the demand has not shown unexpected performance. The LME zinc price has upward pressure, while the Shanghai zinc may be stronger than the LME zinc, with the main contract reference range of 22,300 - 23,000 [20]. Summary by Directory - **Price and Spread**: SMM 0 zinc ingot decreased by 0.31% to 22,570 yuan/ton, and the 2511 - 2512 spread increased by 5 to -55 [20]. - **Fundamental Data**: Refined zinc production in October increased by 2.85% to 61.72 million tons, and the galvanizing start - up rate decreased by 2.41% to 55.13% [20]. - **Inventory**: China's zinc ingot seven - region social inventory decreased by 1.30% to 15.96 million tons, and LME inventory remained unchanged at 3.5 million tons [20]. Group 10: Aluminum Alloy Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The ADC12 price is expected to maintain a strong oscillation trend, with the main contract reference range of 20,400 - 21,100 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the improvement of scrap aluminum supply, downstream procurement rhythm, and inventory depletion [22]. Summary by Directory - **Price and Spread**: SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 remained unchanged at 21,450 yuan/ton, and the 2511 - 2512 spread decreased by 100 to -105 [22]. - **Fundamental Data**: Recycled aluminum alloy ingot production in October decreased by 2.42% to 64.50 million tons, and the recycled aluminum alloy start - up rate decreased by 2.95% to 55.84% [22]. - **Inventory**: Recycled aluminum alloy ingot weekly social inventory increased by 1.82% to 5.58 million tons [22].
《黑色》日报-20251111
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-11-11 03:12
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content. 2. Report's Core Viewpoints - For the steel industry, given the high steel inventories and winter storage pressure, the iron - water production of steel mills in the January contract is likely to decline. The iron element supply on the January contract is becoming looser, and it is expected to be weaker than the carbon element. It is recommended to hold the long - coking coal and short - hot - rolled coil arbitrage strategy, and pay attention to the support levels of 3000 and 3200 for rebar and hot - rolled coil respectively [2]. - For the iron ore industry, due to weakening steel prices and declining steel mill profits, the demand side will force iron ore to operate weakly. With the supply being relatively loose, it is advisable to short iron ore futures at high prices and consider the long - coking coal and short - iron ore arbitrage [5]. - For the coking coal and coke industries, the overall coal - coke market is in a tight pattern. It is recommended to go long on coking coal 2601 in the range of 1250 - 1350 and long on coke 2601 in the range of 1700 - 1850, and adopt the long - coking coal and short - coke arbitrage strategy while guarding against the negative feedback risk from falling steel prices [8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Industry Prices and Spreads - Rebar: Spot prices in East, North, and South China remained unchanged. Futures prices of 05, 10, and 01 contracts increased. The basis varied by region and contract [2]. - Hot - rolled coil: Spot prices in East China rose by 10 yuan/ton, while those in North and South China remained stable. Futures prices of 05, 10, and 01 contracts increased [2]. Cost and Profit - Steel billet and slab prices remained unchanged. The costs of Jiangsu electric - arc furnace and converter rebar decreased. The profits of hot - rolled coil and rebar in different regions declined [2]. Production and Inventory - The daily average pig iron output decreased by 2.1 to 234.2, a 0.9% decline. The output of five major steel products decreased by 18.5 to 856.7, a 2.1% decline. The inventory of five major steel products decreased by 10.2 to 1503.6, a 0.7% decline [2]. Demand - The building materials trading volume increased by 2.1 to 10.8, a 23.8% increase. The apparent demand of five major steel products decreased by 49.5 to 866.9, a 5.4% decline [2]. Iron Ore Industry Prices and Spreads - The warehouse - receipt costs of various iron ore types decreased. The basis of the 01 contract for some types changed, and the 5 - 9, 9 - 1, and 1 - 5 spreads also changed [5]. Supply - The 45 - port arrival volume decreased by 477.2 to 2741.2, a 14.8% decline. The global shipment volume decreased by 144.8 to 3069.0, a 4.5% decline [5]. Demand - The daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills decreased by 2.1 to 234.2, a 0.9% decline. The national monthly pig iron and crude steel output decreased [5]. Inventory - The 45 - port inventory increased by 184.8 to 14898.83, a 1.3% increase. The imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 160.1 to 66006, a 1.8% increase [5]. Coking Coal and Coke Industries Prices and Spreads - For coking coal, the 01 and 05 contract prices decreased, and the basis and spreads changed. For coke, the 01 and 05 contract prices also decreased [8]. Supply - The coking coal production of Fenwei sample mines and the daily average output of the full - sample coking plants decreased. The coke production of 247 steel mills decreased [8]. Demand - The iron - water production of 247 steel mills decreased by 2.1 to 234.2, a 0.9% decline [8]. Inventory - The coking coal inventory of various entities changed, with some going into de - stocking and some increasing. The coke inventory also had different trends among different entities [8].
《农产品》日报-20251111
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-11-11 03:12
Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the industries are provided in the reports. Core Views Pig Industry - Current pig market is in a range - bound pattern with limited downside. The slowdown of overall November planned slaughter volume may boost pig prices. Strategy: continue to hold the 3 - 7 backwardation spread and maintain a cautiously bullish view on single - side trading [2] Oil and Fat Industry - Palm oil: Due to weak export data, the market is bearish. It will fluctuate between 4000 - 4100 ringgit in the short - term in the international market and 8500 - 8600 yuan in the domestic market, with a near - weak and far - strong pattern. - Soybean oil: EPA's decision on small refinery exemptions adds uncertainty to renewable fuels, pressuring CBOT soybean oil. Domestic factory output decreased, inventory reduced, and basis quotes are supported, but overall demand is not strong [4] Egg Industry - In November, the inventory of laying hens is expected to remain high, and egg supply pressure persists. Terminal demand is average. Egg prices are expected to fluctuate widely at the bottom [6] Sugar Industry - Brazilian sugar production increased year - on - year, and the new sugar - crushing season is expected to have a significant increase in production. Raw sugar prices are weak. The domestic market is less affected by import quotas, with delayed sugar - crushing in Guangxi expected. Sugar prices will fluctuate [9] Cotton Industry - Zhengzhou cotton faces hedging pressure but also has cost support. Downstream demand is weak, but inventory pressure is not large. Cotton prices will fluctuate in a range in the short - term [10] Corn Industry - With the release of moist corn and improved weather, farmers' selling enthusiasm is price - sensitive. Corn supply pressure remains in November, but prices are restricted by cost and storage policies. Corn prices will rebound and fluctuate in the short - term, but the subsequent selling pressure may limit the rebound [11] Meal Industry - The market is waiting for the USDA report on the 14th. Although the US - China partial agreement boosts demand confidence, the 13% tariff on US soybeans affects exports. Domestic soybean inventory is high, oil - mill operation declines, and soybean meal inventory decreases. Soybean meal prices will fluctuate widely [16] Summary by Related Catalogs Pig Industry Futures Indicators - The basis of the main contract for live pigs 2605 is 12070 yuan/ton, up 0.54% from the previous value. The price of live pigs 2601 is 11955 yuan/ton, up 0.76%. The 1 - 5 spread is - 115 yuan/ton, up 17.86%. The main contract position decreased by 3.86%, and the number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged [2] Spot Prices - Spot prices in various regions showed different changes, with prices in Henan, Shandong, etc. rising, and prices in Liaoning falling. The daily slaughter volume of sample points increased by 0.46%, the weekly price of daily strips decreased by 100%, the weekly price of piglets decreased by 15%, and the weekly price of sows remained unchanged [2] Oil and Fat Industry Palm Oil - The current price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong is 8560 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of P2601 is 8660 yuan/ton, up 0.35%. The basis decreased by 30%. The number of warehouse receipts decreased by 0.8% [4] Soybean Oil - The current price of first - grade soybean oil in Jiangsu is 8450 yuan/ton, up 0.72%. The price of Y2601 is 8228 yuan/ton, up 0.54%. The basis increased by 7.77%. The number of warehouse receipts decreased by 0.8% [4] Spreads - The 01 - 05 spreads of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil showed different changes. The spot - futures spread of soybean - palm oil decreased by 3.12%, and the rapeseed - soybean oil spread decreased by 2.13% [4] Egg Industry Indicators - The price of the egg 12 - contract is 3176 yuan/500KG, down 1.34%. The price of the 01 - contract is 3383 yuan/500KG, down 0.24%. The price of egg - laying chicks remained unchanged, the price of culled chickens decreased by 1.95%, the egg - feed ratio increased by 1.28%, and the breeding profit increased by 6.36% [6] Sugar Industry Futures Market - The price of sugar 2601 is 5475 yuan/ton, up 0.33%. The price of sugar 2605 is 5405 yuan/ton, up 0.15%. The price of ICE raw sugar increased by 0.92%. The 1 - 5 spread increased by 16.67%. The position of the main contract increased by 0.34%, the number of warehouse receipts increased by 3.81%, and the effective forecast decreased by 17.72% [9] Spot Market - Spot prices in Nanning and Kunming remained unchanged. The basis in Nanning decreased by 2.09%, and the basis in Kunming decreased by 3.16%. The price of imported Brazilian sugar decreased, and the spreads between imported sugar and Nanning prices also decreased [9] Industry Situation - National sugar production and sales increased year - on - year. The national sales rate decreased by 2.6%, and the Guangxi sales rate increased by 4.8%. National industrial inventory decreased by 41.2%, and Guangxi industrial inventory increased by 62.9%. Sugar imports increased by 37.5% [9] Cotton Industry Futures Market - The price of cotton 2605 is 13580 yuan/ton, down 0.07%. The price of cotton 2601 remained unchanged. The price of ICE US cotton increased by 1.24%. The 5 - 1 spread decreased by 100%. The position of the main contract decreased by 1.06%, the number of warehouse receipts increased by 9.33%, and the effective forecast decreased by 10.78% [10] Spot Market - Spot prices in various regions decreased slightly. The spread between 3128B and the 01 - contract increased by 0.28%, and the spread between 3128B and the 05 - contract decreased by 0.64% [10] Industry Situation - Commercial inventory increased by 70.4%, industrial inventory increased by 9.7%, the import volume increased by 42.9%, the inventory in the bonded area increased by 8%, the yarn inventory days increased by 3.5%, and the grey cloth inventory days increased by 1.7% [10] Corn Industry Corn - The price of corn 2601 is 2164 yuan/ton, up 0.70%. The basis decreased by 45.45%. The 1 - 5 spread increased by 6.52%. The southern - northern trade profit increased by 1000%, the import profit increased by 8.77%, and the number of remaining vehicles at Shandong deep - processing plants in the morning decreased by 21.46% [11] Corn Starch - The price of corn starch 2601 is 2479 yuan/ton, up 0.69%. The basis decreased by 35.42%. The 1 - 5 spread increased by 5.10%, and the spread between starch and corn on the 01 - contract increased by 0.64% [11] Meal Industry Soybean Meal - The current price of soybean meal in Jiangsu remained unchanged. The price of M2601 is 3063 yuan/ton, up 0.16%. The basis decreased by 250%. The import crushing profit of Brazilian soybeans in February decreased by 88.4%, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 0.3% [16] Rapeseed Meal - The current price of rapeseed meal in Jiangsu is 2530 yuan/ton, down 0.39%. The price of RM2601 is 2527 yuan/ton, down 0.47%. The basis increased by 200%. The import crushing profit of Canadian rapeseed in January decreased by 5.42%, and the number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged [16] Spreads - The 01 - 05 spreads of soybean meal and rapeseed meal decreased. The oil - meal ratio and the soybean - rapeseed meal spread increased [16]
《能源化工》日报-20251111
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-11-11 03:09
Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views Polyolefins - The polyolefin market is under pressure, with a divergence in the fundamentals of PP and PE. PP shows a dual increase in supply and demand, but there is a slight inventory build - up this week under the pressure of new production capacity. PE has weak supply and demand, and although there is inventory reduction this week, port inventory remains high. The cost side is mixed, with high inventory and cost support in a continuous game [2]. Glass and Soda Ash - For soda ash, the overall supply - demand pattern is still bearish. Short - term observation is recommended, and opportunities to short on rebounds can be awaited later. For glass, short - term there is still some rigid demand support, but in the long - term, there are concerns about the sustainability of demand, and the price is expected to be under pressure [4]. PVC and Caustic Soda - The caustic soda market is expected to be weak in the short - term, and the overall trend is bearish. The PVC market is in an oversupply situation, and the price is expected to continue the weak trend at the bottom [5]. Methanol - The port methanol market is under significant pressure, and the current market trades on the "weak reality" logic, with the core contradiction being high port inventory. Before the gas restriction in Iran, the weak reality will continue to be traded [8]. Natural Rubber - The supply in overseas production areas is expected to be strong during the peak season, and the domestic production is gradually decreasing. The demand is weakening in some northern regions. The market sentiment has improved, and subsequent attention should be paid to the raw material output in the main production areas and macro - level changes [11]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - The supply - demand outlook for pure benzene is generally loose, and the price driver is weak. It is recommended to short on rebounds following the oil price. The supply - demand of styrene may remain in a tight balance, but the price driver is insufficient. EB12 can be shorted on rebounds [12]. Polyester Industry Chain - For PX, the short - term is expected to fluctuate in the range of 6200 - 6800. For PTA, the short - term is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4300 - 4800. For ethylene glycol, the price is under pressure. For short - fiber, the rebound space is limited. For bottle - chips, the supply - demand is in a loose pattern [13]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Polyolefins - **Prices and Spreads**: L2601 and L2605, PP2601 and PP2605 have different price changes. The spreads between different contracts and the basis also show various trends. Spot prices of different varieties in different regions also have corresponding changes [2]. - **Inventory and开工率**: PE and PP have different changes in enterprise inventory, social inventory, and trade - related inventory. The start - up rates of PE and PP devices and downstream industries also vary [2]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Prices and Spreads**: Glass and soda ash have different price changes in different regions, and the basis and spreads between different contracts also change [4]. - **Supply and Demand**: Soda ash production remains at a high level, and the inventory is transferred to the middle and lower reaches. Glass production has changes in production lines, and the demand has short - term and long - term differences [4]. PVC and Caustic Soda - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of PVC and caustic soda in different forms and regions have corresponding changes, and the basis and spreads between different contracts also vary [5]. - **Supply and Demand**: The caustic soda supply is increasing, and the demand support is weak. The PVC supply is under pressure, and the demand is in the off - season [5]. Methanol - **Prices and Spreads**: Methanol futures and spot prices in different regions have changes, and the basis and regional spreads also vary [6]. - **Inventory and开工率**: Methanol enterprise, port, and social inventories all increase. The start - up rates of upstream and downstream industries also have corresponding changes [7][8]. Natural Rubber - **Prices and Spreads**: The spot prices of natural rubber in different varieties and regions have changes, and the basis, month - to - month spreads also vary [11]. - **Supply and Demand**: The production in different countries has changes, and the start - up rates of tire industries and the import and export volumes also vary [11]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of pure benzene and styrene in different forms and regions have changes, and the basis, spreads between different contracts, and import profits also vary [12]. - **Inventory and开工率**: The inventories of pure benzene and styrene in ports change, and the start - up rates of different industries in the industrial chain also vary [12]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of upstream raw materials, PX, PTA, MEG, and downstream polyester products have changes, and the basis, spreads between different contracts, and processing fees also vary [13]. - **Supply and Demand**: The supply and demand of different products in the polyester industry chain have corresponding changes, and the start - up rates of different industries also vary [13].
《金融》日报-20251111
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-11-11 02:43
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided in the reports. 2. Core Views - The reports present daily data on various futures, including stock index futures, treasury bond futures, precious metal futures, and container shipping futures. They show price changes, spreads, and related market indicators for these futures on November 10 - 11, 2025 [1][2][4][5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Stock Index Futures - **Price Differences**: The reports provide data on the price differences between futures and spot prices, as well as inter - period and cross - variety price differences for IF, IH, IC, and IM futures. For example, the IF period - spot price difference was - 23.05, a change of - 3.66 from the previous day [1]. - **Percentiles**: Historical 1 - year and full - historical percentiles are given for each price difference, which can help investors understand the relative position of current price differences in history. For instance, the historical 1 - year percentile of the IF period - spot price difference was 37.20% [1]. Treasury Bond Futures - **IRR and Basis**: The internal rate of return (IRR) and basis data are provided for TS, TF, T, and TL treasury bond futures. For example, the TS basis was 1.5852, a change of - 0.0211 from the previous day, and the IRR percentile was 25.70% [2]. - **Inter - period and Cross - variety Spreads**: Data on inter - period spreads (e.g., current quarter - next quarter) and cross - variety spreads (e.g., TS - TF) are presented, along with their percentiles since listing [2]. Precious Metal Futures - **Prices**: Domestic and foreign futures closing prices, as well as spot prices, are provided for gold and silver. For example, the AU2512 contract closed at 935.98 yuan/gram on November 10, a rise of 14.72 yuan from November 7 [4]. - **Spreads and Ratios**: The reports show basis spreads, cross - variety ratios, and changes in interest rates and exchange rates. For example, the COMEX gold/silver ratio was 81.81 on November 10, a decrease of 1.30 from the previous value [4]. Container Shipping Futures - **Index and Price**: The settlement price indices of SCFIS for European and US - West routes, as well as the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI), are provided. Futures prices and basis spreads for different contracts are also given. For example, the SCFIS (European route) was 1504.80 on November 10, a 24.50% increase from November 3 [5]. - **Fundamentals**: Data on container shipping fundamentals, such as global container shipping capacity supply, port punctuality, and overseas economic indicators, are presented. For example, the global container shipping capacity supply was 3338.60 million TEU on November 10, a marginal increase from the previous day [5].
广发期货日评-20251111
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-11-11 02:38
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The US dollar index has strengthened recently due to better - than - expected US October manufacturing PMI and employment market data, suppressing the performance of risk assets, but domestic stock indices are resilient and continue to reduce volatility and wait for stabilization [3]. - The 10 - year Treasury bond active bond 250016.IB may fluctuate between 1.75% - 1.82%. With the restart of the central bank's Treasury bond trading, the top of interest rates and the bottom of bond futures are more solid. The bond market pricing may tilt towards fundamentals [3]. - In the context of tight supply of gold and silver, the buying power has increased, driving the prices of precious metals to rise strongly [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Financial Sector - **Stock Index**: After the release of the third - quarter reports, the A - share market is in a repricing adjustment. There may be short - term narrow - range corrections and rebounds, with limited downside risk. It is recommended to wait and see. If there is a deep decline in a single day, a bullish spread of put options can be arranged [3]. - **Treasury Bond**: The short - term capital market is tightened, but the bond market sentiment is positive. In the unilateral strategy, investors are advised to buy on dips. In the spot - futures strategy, due to the rising IRR, positive arbitrage opportunities can be considered [3]. - **Precious Metals**: It is recommended to buy gold below $4100. For silver, call options with a strike price below the market price can be bought [3]. Black Sector - **Steel**: For the January 2026 contract, the supply of iron elements is loose. It is recommended to hold a long - coking coal and short - hot - rolled coil arbitrage position and wait and see on a single - side basis [3]. - **Iron Ore**: Shipments and arrivals have decreased significantly, port stocks have increased, and molten iron production has dropped sharply. It is recommended to short on rallies, with a reference range of 750 - 800. An arbitrage strategy of long - coking coal and short - iron ore is recommended [3]. - **Coking Coal**: The coal price at the origin is running strongly, and the price of Mongolian coal is firm. It is recommended to buy coking coal 2601 on dips, with a reference range of 1250 - 1350 [3]. - **Coke**: Mainstream coking enterprises have started the fourth round of price increases, and coking coal provides cost support. It is recommended to buy coke 2601 on dips, with a reference range of 1700 - 1850 [3]. Non - ferrous Sector - **Copper**: The end of the US government shutdown may drive the copper price to rebound. The support level of the main contract is around 84000, and the resistance level is around 86500 [3]. - **Other Metals**: Each metal has its own price range and trading suggestions, such as aluminum (21000 - 21800), zinc (22300 - 23000), etc. [3] New Energy Sector - **Polysilicon and Carbonate Lithium**: Polysilicon prices are expected to oscillate between 50000 - 58000, and carbonate lithium is in a wide - range oscillatory adjustment [3]. Chemical Sector - **PX and PTA**: PX is expected to oscillate between 6200 - 6800 in the short term, and PTA is expected to oscillate between 4300 - 4800. It is recommended to reduce long positions [3]. - **Other Chemicals**: Each chemical product has its own trading suggestions, such as short - fiber (short on rallies), ethanol (hold out - of - the - money call options with a strike price not less than 4100), etc. [3] Agricultural Sector - **Grains and Oils**: Corn is recommended to be shorted on rebounds, and palm oil is in a weak operation with a support level at 8600 [3]. - **Livestock and Poultry**: For pigs, a 3 - 7 reverse arbitrage position can be held. For eggs, inter - month reverse arbitrage opportunities and short - selling opportunities on rallies can be considered [3]. - **Fruits and Others**: Apples may hit the previous high of 9300, and red dates are in a low - level oscillation [3].
全品种价差日报-20251111
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-11-11 02:04
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints No information provided. 3. Summary by Categories Ferrous Metals - **Silicon Iron (SF601)**: The spot price is 5588, the futures price is 5578, the basis is 10, and the basis rate is 0.18%. The historical quantile is 55.40% [1]. - **Silicon Manganese (SM601)**: The spot price is 5890, the futures price is 5820, the basis is 70, and the basis rate is 1.20%. The historical quantile is 38.70% [1]. - **Rebar (RB2601)**: The spot price is 3190, the futures price is 3044, the basis is 146, and the basis rate is 4.80%. The historical quantile is 62.00% [1]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil (HC2601)**: The spot price is 3270, the futures price is 3252, the basis is 18, and the basis rate is 0.95%. The historical quantile is 24.70% [1]. - **Iron Ore (I2601)**: The spot price (converted price of 62.5% Brazilian mixed powder) is 836, the futures price is 765, the basis is 71, and the basis rate is 9.32%. The historical quantile is 55.90% [1]. - **Coke (J2601)**: The spot price is 1744, the futures price is 1732, the basis is 11, and the basis rate is 0.64%. The historical quantile is 56.62% [1]. - **Coking Coal (JM2601)**: The spot price is 1354, the futures price is 1266, the basis is 89, and the basis rate is 6.99%. The historical quantile is 48.60% [1]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper (CU2512)**: The spot price is 86535, the futures price is 86480, the basis is 55, and the basis rate is 0.06%. The historical quantile is 51.04% [1]. - **Aluminum (AL2601)**: The spot price is 21725, the futures price is 21490, the basis is 235, and the basis rate is 1.08%. The historical quantile is 3.33% [1]. - **Alumina (AO2601)**: The spot price is 2854, the futures price is 2829, the basis is 25, and the basis rate is 0.89%. The historical quantile is 31.05% [1]. - **Zinc (ZN2512)**: The spot price is 22500, the futures price is 22670, the basis is - 170, and the basis rate is - 0.5%. The historical quantile is 19.16% [1]. - **Tin (SN2512)**: The spot price is 285800, the futures price is 286560, the basis is - 760, and the basis rate is - 0.27%. The historical quantile is 26.25% [1]. - **Nickel (NI2512)**: The spot price is 119800, the futures price is 119680, the basis is 120, and the basis rate is 0.10%. The historical quantile is 62.29% [1]. - **Stainless Steel (SS2512)**: The spot price is 12970, the futures price is 12605, the basis is 365, and the basis rate is 2.90%. The historical quantile is 72.10% [1]. - **Lithium Carbonate (LC2601)**: The spot price is 87240, the futures price is 80750, the basis is - 6490, and the basis rate is - 7.44%. The historical quantile is 4.84% [1]. - **Industrial Silicon (215601)**: The spot price is 9500, the futures price is 9290, the basis is 210, and the basis rate is 2.26%. The historical quantile is 18.71% [1]. Precious Metals - **Gold (AU2512)**: The spot price (Shanghai Gold Exchange's gold spot AU (T + D)) is 933.0, the futures price is 936.0, the basis is - 3.0, and the basis rate is - 0.32%. The historical quantile is 22.30% [1]. - **Silver (AG2512)**: The spot price (Shanghai Gold Exchange's silver spot AG (T + D)) is 11719.0, the futures price is 11726.0, the basis is - 7.0, and the basis rate is - 0.06%. The historical quantile is 93.40% [1]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal (M2601)**: The spot price (Jiangsu Zhangjiagang factory price) is 3063.0, the futures price is 3010, the basis is 53, and the basis rate is 1.73%. The historical quantile is 29.60% [1]. - **Soybean Oil (Y2601)**: The spot price (Jiangsu Zhangjiagang factory price of grade - four soybean oil) is 8420, the futures price is 8228.0, the basis is 192.0, and the basis rate is 2.33%. The historical quantile is 39.10% [1]. - **Palm Oil (P2601)**: The spot price (delivery price at Huangpu Port) is 8690.0, the futures price is 8630, the basis is 60.0, and the basis rate is 0.59%. The historical quantile is 65.20% [1]. - **Rapeseed Meal (RM601)**: The spot price (Guangdong Zhanjiang factory price) is 2630, the futures price is 2527.0, the basis is 103.0, and the basis rate is 4.08%. The historical quantile is 32.10% [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil (Oleo1)**: The spot price (Jiangsu Nantong factory price of grade - four rapeseed oil) is 9890, the futures price is 9587.0, the basis is 303.0, and the basis rate is 3.16%. The historical quantile is 81.00% [1]. - **Corn (C2601)**: The spot price (free - on - board price at Xizhou Port) is 2170, the futures price is 2164.0, the basis is 6.0, and the basis rate is 0.28%. The historical quantile is 44.50% [1]. - **Corn Starch (CS2601)**: The spot price (Jilin Changchun factory price) is 2550, the futures price is 2479.0, the basis is 71.0, and the basis rate is 2.86%. The historical quantile is 32.10% [1]. - **Live Hogs (LH2601)**: The spot price (Henan factory price of live hogs (external ternary)) is 12050, the futures price is 11955.0, the basis is 95.0, and the basis rate is 0.79%. The historical quantile is 46.50% [1]. - **Eggs (JD2512)**: The spot price (average price in Hebei Shijiazhuang) is 3176.0, the futures price is 2910, the basis is 266.0, and the basis rate is 8.38%. The historical quantile is 71.70% [1]. - **Cotton (CF601)**: The spot price (Xinjiang arrival price of cotton 3128B) is 14671, the futures price is 13580.0, the basis is 1091.0, and the basis rate is 8.03%. The historical quantile is 71.70% [1]. - **Sugar (SR601)**: The spot price (spot price of white sugar at Liuzhou Station) is 5730, the futures price is 5475.0, the basis is 255.0, and the basis rate is 4.66%. The historical quantile is 43.50% [1]. - **Apples (AP601)**: The spot price (delivery theoretical price) is 9159.0, the futures price is 8840, the basis is 319.0, and the basis rate is 3.48%. The historical quantile is 7.80% [1]. - **Red Dates (CJ601)**: The spot price (wholesale price of first - grade grey dates in Hebei) is 9585.0, the futures price is 9000, the basis is 585.0, and the basis rate is 6.10%. The historical quantile is 69.70% [1]. Energy and Chemicals - **Paraxylene (PX601)**: The spot price (CFR spot price at Chinese main ports, converted to RMB) is 6852.0, the futures price is 6793.0, the basis is 59.0, and the basis rate is 0.86%. The historical quantile is 16.20% [1]. - **PTA (TA601)**: The spot price (market price (intermediate price) in East China) is 4704.0, the futures price is 4625.0, the basis is 79.0, and the basis rate is 1.68%. The historical quantile is 23.50% [1]. - **Ethylene Glycol (EG2601)**: The spot price (market price (intermediate price) in East China) is 4020.0, the futures price is 3953.0, the basis is 67.0, and the basis rate is 1.69%. The historical quantile is 81.70% [1]. - **Polyester Staple Fiber (PF512)**: The spot price (market price (mainstream price) in East China market) is 6238.0, the futures price is 6335.0, the basis is - 97.0, and the basis rate is - 1.55%. The historical quantile is 66.80% [1]. - **Styrene (EB2512)**: The spot price (market price in East China, China, spot benchmark price) is 6315.0, the futures price is 6345.0, the basis is - 30.0, and the basis rate is 0.48%. The historical quantile is 35.40% [1]. - **Methanol (MA601)**: The spot price (market price in Jiangsu Taicang, China, spot benchmark price) is 2060.0, the futures price is 2101.0, the basis is - 41.0, and the basis rate is 1.95%. The historical quantile is 14.40% [1]. - **Urea (UR601)**: The spot price (market price (mainstream price) in Shandong area) is 1660.0, the futures price is 1620.0, the basis is 40.0, and the basis rate is 2.41%. The historical quantile is 6.10% [1]. - **LLDPE (L2601)**: The spot price (tax - paid self - pick - up price (intermediate price) of linear low - density polyethylene (film grade) in Shandong) is 6850.0, the futures price is 6802.0, the basis is 48.0, and the basis rate is 0.71%. The historical quantile is 36.60% [1]. - **PP (PP2601)**: The spot price (tax - paid self - pick - up price (intermediate price) of polypropylene (拉丝级, melt index 2 - 4) in Zhejiang) is 6500.0, the futures price is 6480.0, the basis is 20.0, and the basis rate is 0.31%. The historical quantile is 30.60% [1]. - **PVC (V2601)**: The spot price (market price (mainstream price) in Changzhou market, China) is 4614.0, the futures price is 4520.0, the basis is 94.0, and the basis rate is 2.04%. The historical quantile is 58.80% [1]. - **Caustic Soda (SH601)**: The spot price (market price (mainstream price) in Shandong market, converted to 100%) is 2500.0, the futures price is 2349.0, the basis is 151.0, and the basis rate is 6.43%. The historical quantile is 72.40% [1]. - **LPG (PG2512)**: The spot price (market price in Guangzhou area) is 4448.0, the futures price is 4323.0, the basis is 125.0, and the basis rate is 2.89%. The historical quantile is 38.10% [1]. - **Asphalt (BU2601)**: The spot price (market price (mainstream price) in Shandong area) is 3036.0, the futures price is 3010.0, the basis is 26.0, and the basis rate is 0.36%. The historical quantile is 46.80% [1]. - **Butadiene Rubber (BR2601)**: The spot price (distribution price in China, cis - butadiene rubber (Daqing, BR9000) in CNPC East China) is 10275.0, the futures price is 10200.0, the basis is 75.0, and the basis rate is 0.73%. The historical quantile is 20.50% [1]. - **Glass (FG601)**: The spot price (market price of float glass 5mm large board in Shahe, Shahe Great Wall Glass) is 1069.0, the futures price is 1032.0, the basis is 37.0, and the basis rate is 3.59%. The historical quantile is 65.96% [1]. - **Soda Ash (SA601)**: The spot price (market price of heavy soda ash in Shahe) is 1226.0, the futures price is 1176.0, the basis is 50.0, and the basis rate is 4.25%. The historical quantile is 21.21% [1]. - **Natural Rubber (RU2601)**: The spot price (market price in Shanghai, natural rubber (Yunnan state - owned full - latex)) is 15110.0, the futures price is 14550.0, the basis is 560.0, and the basis rate is 3.85%. The historical quantile is 66.73% [1]. Financial Products - **Stock Index Futures** - **IF2512.CFE**: The spot price is 4695.1, the futures price is 4672.0, the basis is - 23.1, and the basis rate is - 0.49%. The historical quantile is 19.90% [1]. - **IH2512.CFE**: The spot price is 3054.0, the futures price is 3053.9, the basis is 0.1, and the basis rate is 0.00%. The historical quantile is 57.
股指期货持仓日度跟踪-20251111
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-11-11 01:57
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The report provides a daily tracking of the positions of stock index futures on November 10, 2025, including the overall position changes and the position changes of the top 20 long and short positions of IF, IH, IC, and IM [1][4][10][15][21]. 3. Summary by Directory IF (CSI 300 Index Futures) - **Total Position and Main Contract Position Changes**: On November 10, the total position of the IF variety increased by 10,827 lots, and the position of the main contract 2512 increased by 6,246 lots [4]. - **Top 20 Long Position Changes**: Among the top 20 long positions of the IF variety on that day, Guotai Junan Futures ranked first with a total position of 40,310 lots. Guotai Junan Futures had the largest increase in long positions, adding 2,320 lots during the day, while CITIC Construction Investment Futures had the largest decrease, reducing 196 lots [5]. - **Top 20 Short Position Changes**: Among the top 20 short positions of the IF variety on that day, CITIC Futures ranked first with a total position of 45,045 lots. CITIC Futures had the largest increase in short positions, adding 2,409 lots during the day, while CITIC Construction Investment Futures had the largest decrease, reducing 498 lots [7]. IH (SSE 50 Index Futures) - **Total Position and Main Contract Position Changes**: On November 10, the total position of the IH variety increased by 5,768 lots, and the position of the main contract 2512 increased by 3,798 lots [10]. - **Top 20 Long Position Changes**: Among the top 20 long positions of the IH variety on that day, Guotai Junan Futures ranked first with a total position of 13,197 lots. Guotai Junan Futures had the largest increase in long positions, adding 1,792 lots during the day, while Guotou Futures had the largest decrease, reducing 154 lots [10]. - **Top 20 Short Position Changes**: Among the top 20 short positions of the IH variety on that day, CITIC Futures ranked first with a total position of 14,519 lots. Guotai Junan Futures had the largest increase in short positions among the top 20 seats, adding 1,986 lots during the day, while China Merchants Futures had the largest decrease, reducing 153 lots [11]. IC (CSI 500 Index Futures) - **Total Position and Main Contract Position Changes**: On November 10, the total position of the IC variety increased by 8,841 lots, and the position of the main contract 2512 increased by 5,781 lots [15]. - **Top 20 Long Position Changes**: Among the top 20 long positions of the IC variety on that day, CITIC Futures ranked first with a total position of 35,730 lots. Guotai Junan Futures had the largest increase in long positions, adding 1,316 lots during the day, while Shenyin Wanguo Futures had the largest decrease, reducing 128 lots [16]. - **Top 20 Short Position Changes**: Among the top 20 short positions of the IC variety on that day, CITIC Futures ranked first with a total position of 41,977 lots. Guotai Junan Futures had the largest increase in short positions, adding 2,132 lots during the day, while GF Futures had the largest decrease, reducing 198 lots [18]. IM (CSI 1000 Index Futures) - **Total Position and Main Contract Position Changes**: On November 10, the total position of the IM variety decreased by 1,747 lots, and the position of the main contract 2509 decreased by 1,349 lots [21]. - **Top 20 Long Position Changes**: Among the top 20 long positions of the IM variety on that day, Guotai Junan Futures ranked first with a total position of 50,214 lots. Guotai Junan Futures had the largest increase in long positions, adding 1,608 lots during the day, while CITIC Futures had the largest decrease, reducing 1,081 lots [21]. - **Top 20 Short Position Changes**: Among the top 20 short positions of the IM variety on that day, CITIC Futures ranked first with a total position of 71,136 lots. Guotai Junan Futures had the largest increase in short positions among the top 20 seats, adding 1,328 lots during the day, while CITIC Futures had the largest decrease, reducing 1,759 lots [22].