Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view on asphalt is "oscillating", with a short - term, medium - term, and long - term amplitude of -5% - 5% [4][77] Core View - Crude oil rebounds, and asphalt follows the upward trend. The overall situation of asphalt is that supply remains high, demand in the north declines due to the rainy season, and the peak season fails to show strong performance. The general trend continues to fluctuate with crude oil [4] Summary by Directory 1. Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: It has a neutral impact. In November 2025, the domestic asphalt refinery production plan is 1312,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 292,000 tons (18.2%) and a year - on - year decrease of 91,000 tons (6.5%). The current capacity utilization rate is low due to factors such as some refineries switching production or entering maintenance [4] - **Demand**: It has a negative impact. Affected by capital and cold air in the north, the markets in Shandong and North China are sluggish. Although there is an increase in total shipments this week (up 9.2% from the previous cycle), the overall demand shows a slow downward trend with the drop in temperature [4] - **Inventory**: It has a neutral impact. The factory inventory shows a mixed trend of rising and falling, with a significant decline in South China. The social inventory is in a destocking state, especially in the north [4] - **Cost**: It has a neutral impact. International oil prices fluctuated slightly upward this week. They were dragged down at the beginning of the week and rebounded later due to various factors such as geopolitical situations and inventory data [4] - **Investment View**: The asphalt market is expected to oscillate, following the general trend of crude oil [4] - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, the outlook is oscillating; for arbitrage, there is no specific strategy [4] 2. Price - The report presents the mainstream market prices of heavy - traffic asphalt in different regions such as East China, South China, North China, and Shandong from 2021 to 2025 through charts [6][7][10] 3. Spread, Basis, and Delivery Profit - **Spread**: The report shows the asphalt cracking spread (BU - (SC * 6.35)) and the spread between asphalt and coking materials from 2021 to 2025 through charts [15][16] - **Basis**: The basis of asphalt in main regions (South China, East China, Shandong) from 2020 to 2025 is presented in a chart [19] 4. Supply - **Production Plan**: The monthly production plan and actual output of asphalt in China from 2025 - 01 to 2025 - 10 are shown, as well as the production in regions such as North China, South China, Shandong, and East China from 2021 to 2025 [23][26][29] - **Capacity Utilization**: The capacity utilization rates of heavy - traffic asphalt in China, Shandong, East China, North China, and South China from 2021 to 2025 are presented through charts [34][38][40] - **Maintenance Loss**: The weekly and monthly maintenance loss volumes of asphalt in China from 2018 to 2025 are shown in a chart [45] 5. Cost and Profit - **Production Gross Margin**: The production gross margin of asphalt in Shandong from 2021 to 2025 is presented through a chart [48][49] - **Diluted Asphalt**: The price, premium/discount, and port inventory (in China and Shandong) of diluted asphalt from 2022 to 2025 are shown in charts [52][53] 6. Inventory - **Factory Inventory**: The factory inventory volumes in different regions (China, Shandong, East China, North China, South China, Northeast) from 2022 to 2025 are presented through charts [57] - **Factory Inventory Rate**: The factory inventory rates in different regions from 2019 to 2025 are shown in charts [60] - **Social Inventory**: The social inventory volumes in different regions from 2022 to 2025 are presented through charts [63] 7. Demand - **Shipment Volume**: The shipment volumes of asphalt in China and different regions (Shandong, East China, North China, South China, Northeast) from 2022 to 2025 are presented through charts [66] - **Downstream开工率**: The开工率 of road - modified asphalt, modified asphalt, building asphalt, and waterproofing membranes from 2018 to 2025 are presented through charts [68][72] - **Modified Asphalt开工率**: The开工率 of modified asphalt in China and different regions from 2022 to 2025 are presented through charts [75]

1. Investment Rating of the Report - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply of pulp is expected to remain loose, with an increase in exports from three South American countries in September. Although the offer price of hardwood pulp has risen for two consecutive periods, the offer price of softwood pulp has declined [4]. - Demand is weak. Except for white cardboard, the production and prices of other wood - pulp papers have not increased significantly. Paper mills maintain just - in - time replenishment, which does not boost pulp prices [4]. - Pulp inventory shows a narrow - range destocking trend. As of October 16, 2025, the inventory of mainstream pulp ports in China was 2.074 million tons, a decrease of 0.003 million tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 0.1% [4]. - The pulp futures have reached an absolute low, but there is no upward driving force, and the pressure of old warehouse receipts is high. It is recommended to wait and see. The trading strategy is a 12 - 1 reverse arbitrage, and attention should be paid to the destocking of pulp warehouse receipts [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Part One: Main Viewpoints and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: Suzano announced price increases in September 2025, with a $20/ton increase in Asia and an $80/ton increase in Europe and the United States. Chile's Arauco Company's September quotes for softwood pulp and hardwood pulp showed a mixed trend, and overall supply is expected to remain loose [4]. - **Demand**: Except for white cardboard, the production and prices of other wood - pulp papers did not rise significantly, and paper mills' replenishment did not boost pulp prices [4]. - **Inventory**: As of October 16, 2025, the inventory of mainstream pulp ports in China decreased slightly [4]. - **Investment Viewpoint**: A 12 - 1 reverse arbitrage is recommended, and it is advisable to wait and see due to the lack of upward driving force and high old warehouse receipt pressure [4]. 3.2 Part Two: Review of Futures and Spot Market Quotes - **Futures Market**: This week, the pulp futures fluctuated at a low level, and the old warehouse receipt problem has not been resolved, suppressing the near - month contract [8]. - **Spot Market**: Hardwood pulp prices were stable, while softwood pulp prices declined. For example, the price of softwood pulp Silver Star was 5,520 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 50 yuan/ton and a month - on - month decrease of 150 yuan/ton [17]. - **Outer - Market Quotes**: In September, the price of hardwood pulp increased, while the outer - market quotes of softwood pulp decreased [20]. - **Position**: As of October 24, 2025, the total position of pulp futures decreased by 10.45% from the previous week, and the position of the main contract decreased by 11.98% [23]. 3.3 Part Three: Fundamental Data of Pulp Supply and Demand - **Import Volume**: In September, the import volume of pulp and wood chips increased. The total pulp import volume was 2.952 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.27% [5]. - **Inventory**: Pulp port inventory decreased slightly, and the number of warehouse receipts was stable. Overseas, the inventory of softwood pulp mills increased, while that of hardwood pulp mills was stable [34][39]. - **Downstream Demand**: The price of white cardboard increased, while other paper types were stable. In September 2025, the production of paper products increased month - on - month. The inventory of white cardboard decreased, while that of other paper types was stable [41][50][57]. - **International Demand**: In September 2025, the inventory - available days of European softwood pulp and hardwood pulp decreased, indicating a demand recovery. In the United States, demand was stable [75]. 3.4 Part Four: Valuation of Pulp Futures - **Basis**: As of October 24, 2025, the basis of Shandong Russian Needle and Shandong Silver Star weakened [84]. - **Spread**: The 11 - 1 month spread of pulp shrank [84]. - **Import Profit**: As of October 24, 2025, the import profit of softwood pulp decreased slightly, while that of hardwood pulp increased slightly [88].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【玻璃纯碱（ 】 供需有支撑，价格下行空间有限 国贸期货 黑色金属研究中心 2025-10-27 黄志鸿 从业资格证号：F3051824 投资咨询证号：Z0015761 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 玻璃:需求有韧性，价格走低空间收窄 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供给 | 中性 | 产量持稳。本周全国浮法玻璃日产量为16.13万吨，与16日持平。行业开工率为76.35%，与16日持平；行业产能利用率为80.63%，与16日持平。 | | | | 本周无生产线变化，供应量持稳。下周1条产线存在点火预期，实际还需视其执行情况。 | | 需求 | 中性 | 旺季需求有支撑，但表现反复，近期产销走弱。 | | 库存 | 偏空 | 库存累积，企业库存6661.3万重箱，环比+233.7万重箱，环比+3.64%，同比+16.99%。折库存天数28.3天，较上期+1天。 | | 基差/价差 | 中性 | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Sanctions and geopolitical factors drive up crude oil prices, causing styrene prices to rise with increasing costs. However, due to various negative factors, styrene is expected to fluctuate with a slight upward bias [4]. - The supply of pure benzene overseas has contracted, but weak demand restricts its price increase. The overall market is still affected by the sluggish downstream demand [37]. - The downstream of styrene is generally weak, with issues such as increased inventory and decreased production load in various sectors [51][60][69]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Styrene**: Multiple factors affect styrene. Supply, demand, basis, profit, and macro - policies are all bearish; inventory and valuation are neutral. The investment view is that it will fluctuate, and the trading strategy suggests taking a wait - and - see approach [4]. - **Supply**: The economic situation of styrene producers in Asia remains severely negative, with the styrene - naphtha spread at about $253 and the styrene - benzene spread at $130 [4]. - **Demand**: Port inventories are slightly decreasing, but market expectations are poor. As of October 20, 2025, the commercial inventory of pure benzene in Jiangsu ports increased by 0.9 tons compared to the previous period, a 10% increase. The supply side has increased maintenance, but the low operating rate of derivatives has led to a decline in demand [4]. - **Inventory**: As of October 20, 2025, the total inventory of styrene in Jiangsu port samples increased by 0.6 tons compared to the previous period, a 3.05% increase. The commercial inventory increased by 0.1 tons, a 0.82% increase [4]. - **Basis**: The styrene basis is stable. There are concerns that overseas sanctions may reduce supply - side raw materials [4]. - **Profit**: The styrene - naphtha spread is about $253, and the combined spread of benzene - naphtha and PX - naphtha is about $364 [4]. - **Valuation**: The significant rebound in crude oil prices and the contraction of overseas pure benzene supply may disrupt styrene production due to raw material supply [4]. - **Macro - policy**: On the morning of October 25 local time, the economic and trade teams of China and the United States began economic and trade consultations in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia [4]. 3.2 Overview of Pure Benzene and Styrene Fundamentals - **Crude Oil**: The escalation of sanctions against Russia has led to a strong upward trend in crude oil prices [6]. - **Styrene**: The integrated profit of styrene has declined, and port inventories have slightly decreased [14][25]. - **Pure Benzene**: Overseas supply has contracted, but weak demand restricts the price of pure benzene [37]. 3.3 Polymer Demand Overview - **Styrene Downstream** - **ABS**: The domestic ABS market is weak, with factors such as price, inventory, and production all showing signs of decline [51]. - **PS**: PS inventory has increased, and the production load has decreased [60]. - **EPS**: EPS inventory has accumulated [69]. - **Pure Benzene Downstream** - **Aniline**: Aniline profit has rebounded, and inventory has increased [79]. - **Phenol**: Phenol port inventory has further decreased [90]. - **Adipic Acid**: The production profit of adipic acid has not improved [101]. - **Caprolactam**: Caprolactam production remains stable, but the price has decreased [114]. - **Household Appliances**: The year - on - year demand for household appliance exports has decreased [124].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view of the report is "oscillation", and the trading strategy suggests "oscillation" for single - sided trading and "wait - and - see" for arbitrage [5]. 2. Core View of the Report - The market shows short - term oscillation, and attention should be paid to Sino - US policies. Before the Sino - US meeting, due to the hedging demand for policy uncertainty, short - covering led to a rebound, but the overall oscillatory trend remains unchanged. Traders should focus on the progress of Sino - US trade negotiations and weather changes in South America [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: The supply factor is rated as neutral. USDA estimates the ending inventory of US soybeans in the 25/26 marketing year at 300 million bushels, and the expected yield of 53.5 bushels per acre may be lowered. Exports depend on Sino - US policies. As of the week of October 18, 2025, the planting rate of Brazilian soybeans in the 2025/26 season was 21.7%. Although there has been dry weather in Brazilian soybean - producing areas recently, its impact is expected to be limited. In November, domestic soybean meal is expected to start destocking, but the supply in the fourth quarter is still expected to be abundant. If China cannot purchase US soybeans, the supply in the first quarter of next year needs to be supplemented, and the source is uncertain. Under the current Sino - Canadian trade policy, the supply of imported rapeseed meal and rapeseed in China is expected to shrink. The opening of Australian rapeseed imports is expected to supplement the domestic rapeseed meal supply in the fourth quarter [5]. - **Demand**: The demand for soybean meal is slightly bullish, while that for rapeseed meal is slightly bearish. Livestock and poultry are expected to maintain high inventory in the short term, which supports feed demand. However, current breeding profits are in the red, and national policies tend to control the inventory and weight of live pigs, which may affect future supply. The cost - effectiveness of soybean meal has decreased. The downstream trading volume of soybean meal is normal, and the pick - up is good, while the downstream trading volume and pick - up of rapeseed meal are cautious [5]. - **Inventory**: The inventory factor for soybean meal is slightly bearish, and for rapeseed meal is slightly bullish. Domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are at historically high levels, and the inventory days of feed enterprises' soybean meal have dropped to a low level. Domestic rapeseed inventory has declined to a low level, and rapeseed meal inventory is being destocked, but the inventory level is still at a high level compared to the same period in previous years [5]. - **Basis/Spread**: The basis is rated as neutral [5]. - **Profit**: The profit factor is slightly bullish. The crushing profit of Brazilian soybean purchases is poor, while that of Canadian rapeseed is good [5]. - **Valuation**: The valuation is rated as neutral. From the perspective of crushing profit, the futures price of soybean meal is at a relatively low valuation; from the perspective of basis, the recent futures price of soybean meal is at a neutral valuation [5]. - **Macro and Policy**: The macro and policy factor is slightly bullish. From October 24th to 27th, China and the US will hold economic and trade talks in Malaysia, and a meeting between the Chinese and US presidents is expected at the APEC Summit on October 30th [5]. 3.2 Fundamental Supply - Demand Data of Meal Products - **Inventory - to - Consumption Ratio**: In September, the inventory - to - consumption ratio of US soybeans in the 25/26 marketing year increased, while the global soybean inventory - to - consumption ratio decreased. The inventory - to - consumption ratio of rapeseed increased [32][38]. - **Soybean Production and Sales**: The US soybean sowing rate and excellent - good rate data are presented. The domestic crushing profit of US soybeans has declined. Data on NOPA soybean crushing volume, USDA monthly US soybean crushing volume, and US soybean export sales are also provided, but this week's US soybean export sales data has not been released [47][52][65]. - **Import and Cost**: The CNF premium of soybeans and the gross profit of imported soybean futures are shown. The CFR price of Canadian rapeseed and the crushing profit of imported Canadian rapeseed are also presented, along with the US dollar - to - real exchange rate [72][75]. - **Domestic Inventory and Consumption**: Domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are at high levels, while the inventory of feed enterprises is at a low level. The inventory of imported rapeseed and rapeseed meal in China is also analyzed. The opening rate and crushing volume of major domestic oil mills are provided. The trading volume and pick - up of soybean meal are normal and at a high level, respectively, while those of rapeseed meal are cautious. Feed monthly output data is also presented [81][102][114]. - **Livestock and Poultry Breeding**: The breeding profits of live pigs, broilers, and laying hens are analyzed. The price of live pigs has slightly rebounded, and the weight reduction is not obvious. Data on the inventory and slaughter volume of livestock and poultry are also provided [116][120][123]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【玉米周报】 现实博弈，震荡筑底 国贸期货 农产品研究中心 2025-10-27 国贸期货研究院 农产品研究中心：黄向岚 从业资格证号：F03110419 投资咨询证号：Z0021658 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 玉米:现实博弈，震荡筑底 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 供给 | 偏空 | （1）东北产地仍面临集中上量压力，华北质量偏差的潮粮也面临保管压力，渠道上量恢复，建议关注11月的产地卖压；（2）25/26年度种植成本继续下降， | | | | | 播种面积稳中略减，单产表现良好，整体维持丰产预期；（3）进口谷物政策限制持续，进口谷物供应缩量。 | | | | | （1）据饲料工业协会数据，2025年8月，全国工业饲料产量2936万吨，环比增长3.7%，同比增长3.8%。饲料企业生产的配合饲料中玉米用量占比为32.9%； （2）畜禽短期预期维持高存栏，产能去化尚不明显， ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a "Neutral" rating for the methanol industry in the short - term, with an "Oscillating" investment view [2] Core Viewpoints - The methanol market shows a supply - demand game pattern. Supply is under pressure with high domestic capacity utilization and rising port inventories. Demand is differentiated, with weak traditional demand and a decline in MTO开工率. Cost support is weak, and the market may continue to be under pressure in the short term. Key variables such as import volume, MTO开工率 recovery, and coal price trends need to be focused on [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Supply - The overall domestic methanol operating load this week was 75.85%, down from last week but slightly up from the same period last year. The decline in the national operating load was mainly affected by the northwest and north China regions. The average operating load of non - integrated methanol in China also decreased month - on - month, and overall production decreased due to more maintenance and production - cut devices and fewer previously restored devices [2] Demand - **Products with increased operating load**: Ice acetic acid, MTBE, dimethyl ether, and formaldehyde had a slight increase in operating load [2] - **Products with decreased operating load**: Methanol - to - olefins (CTO/MTO), methane chloride, formaldehyde (in some statistical dimensions), and dimethyl ether (in some statistical dimensions) saw a decline in operating load [2] - **Products with stable operating load**: DMF and methylal had stable operating loads compared to last week [2] Inventory - **Inland inventory**: Inland inventory was 36.04 tons, a slight increase of 0.05 tons from the previous period and a 19.26% year - on - year decrease. There was significant regional differentiation. Northwest and central China had a slight reduction in inventory, while east, north, and southwest China saw inventory accumulation. The pending order was 21.57 tons, a 5.79% month - on - month decrease. It is expected that the next - period inventory may drop to 34.13 tons [2] - **Port inventory**: The domestic methanol port inventory was 151.22 tons, a 2.08 - ton month - on - month increase and a 36.39% year - on - year increase. East China's inventory increased by 3 tons, while south China's decreased by 0.92 tons. It is expected that port inventory will continue to accumulate, putting downward pressure on the market [2] Profit - Domestic methanol profits were generally poor, with most of the main process profits shrinking or remaining in the red. Coal - to - methanol profits weakened significantly, coke - oven gas - to - methanol profits decreased month - on - month, and natural - gas - to - methanol remained in the red. The industrial chain profits also moved downwards, with most downstream industries in production losses [2] Macro and Geopolitics - The US Treasury official Scott Bessent completed trade negotiations with China, indicating that a successful framework had been reached for leaders to discuss. There were also issues with port unloading, which had an impact on the market [2] Investment Views - The methanol market is in a supply - demand game. Short - term market may continue to be under pressure. Focus on core variables such as import volume changes, MTO开工率 recovery, and coal price trends [2] Trading Strategies - **Single - side trading**: Hold a wait - and - see attitude - **Arbitrage**: Go long on MA1 - 5 spread [2]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【贵金属周报（AU、AG）】 避险降温，贵金属调整 白素娜 从业资格证号：F3023916 投资咨询证号：Z0013700 国贸期货 宏观金融研究中心 2025-10-27 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 周度观点摘要 | 黄金相关数据指标跟踪 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 指标 | 单位 | 本期 | 上一期 | 周度变化 | 周度涨跌幅 | | 伦敦现货黄金 | 美元/盎司 | 4111.555 | 4251.448 | -139.893 | -3.29% | | 沪金主力 | 元/克 | 938.10 | 999.80 | -61.7 | -6.17% | | 基差（TD-期货，取15点整价格） | 元/克 | -1.97 | -2.8 | 0.83 | -29.64% | | 内外价差（TD-伦敦，取15点整价格） | 元/克 | -1.15 | -2.48 | 1.33 | -53.63% | | 黄金SPDR ...

Group 1: Report Information - Report Title: Stock Index Option Data Daily Report [2] - Date: October 24, 2025 [3] - Author: Li Zeju from the Financial Derivatives Center of Guomao Futures Research Institute [3] - Data Sources: Wind, Guomao Futures Research Institute [3] Group 2: Market Review Index Performance - The closing price of SSE 50 was 1212.08, with a daily increase of 60.21, a turnover of 302.69044 billion yuan, and a trading volume of 0.56 billion [3]. - The closing price of CSI 300 was not available, with a daily increase of 0.30, a turnover of 420.8 billion yuan, and a trading volume of 200.46 billion [3]. - The closing price of CSI 1000 was not provided, with a daily decrease of 0.06 [3]. Overall Market - The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.22% to 3922.41 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.22%, the ChiNext Index rose 0.09%, the Beijing Stock Exchange 50 Index fell 1.07%, the STAR 50 Index fell 0.3%, the Wind All - A Index rose 0.14%, the Wind A500 Index rose 0.37%, and the CSI A500 Index rose 0.29% [4]. - A - share trading volume was 1.66 trillion yuan for the day, compared with 1.69 trillion yuan the previous day [4]. Group 3: CFFEX Stock Index Option Trading Option Volume - For SSE 50, the trading volume of call options was 2.27 million contracts, and that of put options was 3.60 million contracts, with a trading volume PCR of 1.32 [3]. - For CSI 300, the trading volume of call options was 6.35 million contracts, and that of put options was 6.54 million contracts, with a trading volume PCR of 0.74 [3]. - For CSI 1000, the trading volume of call options was 24.00 million contracts, and that of put options was 12.98 million contracts, with a trading volume PCR of 0.85 [3]. Option Open Interest - For SSE 50, the open interest of call options was 3.59 million contracts, and that of put options was 2.41 million contracts, with an open - interest PCR of 0.67, and the total open interest was 6.00 million contracts [3]. - For CSI 300, the open interest of call options was 10.41 million contracts, and that of put options was 4.06 million contracts, with an open - interest PCR of 0.39, and the total open interest was 15.42 million contracts [3]. - For CSI 1000, the open interest of call options was 25.99 million contracts, and that of put options was 12.26 million contracts, with an open - interest PCR of 0.47 [3]. Group 4: Volatility Analysis SSE 50 Volatility - Historical volatility was analyzed using a historical volatility cone, showing different percentile values and current values for different time - periods (HV5, HV20, HV60, etc.) [3][4]. - The volatility smile curve for the next - month at - the - money implied volatility was presented [3][4]. CSI 300 Volatility - Similar to SSE 50, historical volatility was analyzed using a historical volatility cone, and the volatility smile curve for the next - month at - the - money implied volatility was shown [4]. CSI 1000 Volatility - Historical volatility was analyzed with a historical volatility cone, and the volatility smile curve for the next - month at - the - money implied volatility was provided [4].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The steel industry maintains a weak - stable state with dual growth in supply and demand, but price elasticity is limited. It is recommended not to participate in directional speculative trading for now [3]. - For silicon - iron and manganese - silicon, they have low valuations and cost support. It is advisable to go long on silicon - iron on dips [3]. - Regarding coking coal and coke, the expectation of the second round of coke price increase is strengthening, but it is not recommended to chase the rise. Industrial clients can consider selling hedging on part of the spot when the price soars [3]. - For iron ore, it is relatively weak compared to other commodities. Short - term observation is recommended [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - Weekly industrial data shows improvement, with social inventory reduction and a weak - stable supply - demand balance. The inventory level is similar to 2023 and higher than last year, suppressing price elasticity. "Silver October" may see a peak in demand, but the market is cautious. Cost - end differentiation may squeeze steel mill profits. It is recommended to take a wait - and - see or oscillatory approach for single - side trading, and look for opportunities to go long on the coil - to - rebar spread below 150 for the 01 contract in arbitrage trading [3]. Silicon - Iron and Manganese - Silicon - They have low production profits, limited supply growth, and cost support due to rising coal prices. High iron - water production drives strong demand. Current silicon - iron inventory is normal, and the futures valuation is not high. With a warm macro - environment, it is advisable to go long on silicon - iron on dips [3]. Coking Coal and Coke - The probability of the second round of coke price increase is high next week. The coking coal spot market is strong, with most prices hitting new highs this year due to supply disruptions and high iron - water demand. However, the high price may face uncertainty in breaking through previous highs, and it may be difficult to implement the coke price increase due to weak downstream demand. It is not recommended to chase the rise, and industrial clients can consider selling hedging [3]. Iron Ore - Commodities are generally rising, but iron ore is relatively weak due to the marginal weakening of supply - demand. Iron - water production is gradually decreasing, and there is a risk of supply - demand surplus in the fourth quarter. The expected shipment from Simandou still restricts the price ceiling. Short - term observation is recommended [3]. 4. Key Data on October 23 Futures Market - **Far - month Contracts**: RB2605 closed at 3128 yuan/ton, up 0.55%; HC2605 at 3271 yuan/ton, up 0.62%; I2605 at 756 yuan/ton, up 0.33%; J2605 at 1896 yuan/ton, up 3.02%; JM2605 at 1325 yuan/ton, up 4.17% [1]. - **Near - month Contracts (Main Contracts)**: RB2601 closed at 3071 yuan/ton, up 0.43%; HC2601 at 3256 yuan/ton, up 0.65%; I2601 at 777 yuan/ton, up 0.39%; J2601 at 1768 yuan/ton, up 4.21%; JM2601 at 1258.5 yuan/ton, up 5.14% [1]. - **Cross - month Spreads**: RB2601 - 2605 was - 57 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan; HC2601 - 2605 was - 15 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan; I2601 - 2605 was 21 yuan/ton, unchanged; J2601 - 2605 was - 128 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan; JM2601 - 2605 was - 66.5 yuan/ton, up 8.5 yuan [1]. - **Spreads/Ratios/Profits**: The coil - to - rebar spread was 185 yuan/ton; the rebar - to - ore ratio was 3.95; the coal - to - coke ratio was 1.40; the rebar's on - paper profit was - 152.8 yuan/ton; the coking on - paper profit was 94.2 yuan/ton [1]. Spot Market - **Steel Products**: Shanghai rebar was 3230 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan; Tianjin rebar was 3130 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan; Guangzhou rebar was 3300 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; Tangshan billet was 2950 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; Shanghai hot - rolled coil was 3310 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; Hangzhou hot - rolled coil was 3350 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; Guangzhou hot - rolled coil was 3290 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan [1]. - **Others**: Super - special powder at Qingdao Port was 708 yuan/ton, unchanged; PB powder at Rizhao Port was 783 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan; Coking coal at Ganqimao Port was 1310 yuan/ton, unchanged; Quasi - first - grade coke at Qingdao Port was 1480 yuan/ton, unchanged; PB powder at Qingdao Port was 782 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan [1]. - **Basis**: HC main contract basis was 54 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan; RB main contract basis was 159 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan; I main contract basis was 38 yuan/ton, unchanged; J main contract basis was - 141.6 yuan/ton, down 58.5 yuan; JM main contract basis was 81.5 yuan/ton, down 49 yuan [1].