Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - In the short - term, inflation pressure in the US still exists, but the rebound is relatively limited, supporting the Fed's August rate cut. The increase in the weekly initial jobless claims in the US highlights the downward risk in the job market and boosts the expectation of three rate cuts by the Fed this year, which supports precious metal prices. However, the strong performance of domestic and overseas bond markets restricts the attractiveness of gold, while silver benefits from risk improvement and shows a strong performance similar to industrial products. Before the rate cut is implemented, precious metal prices are expected to remain at a high level, and long positions can be held, but the risk of increased volatility should be watched out for [5]. - In the long - term, due to the Fed's rate - cut expectation, continuous global geopolitical uncertainty, intensified great - power competition, and the wave of de - dollarization, along with the continuous gold purchases by global central banks, the long - term center of gold prices is likely to continue to rise [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Quotes - On September 11, the main contract of Shanghai gold futures closed down 0.31% to 830.78 yuan/gram, and the main contract of Shanghai silver futures closed up 0.28% to 9,798 yuan/kilogram [5]. Price and Spread Data - **Price Data**: On September 11, compared with September 10, London gold spot rose 0.2%, COMEX silver fell 0.2%, AG (T + D) fell 0.3%, London silver spot rose 0.1%, AU2510 fell 0.3%, COMEX gold fell 0.3%, AG2510 remained unchanged, and AU (T + D) remained unchanged [5]. - **Spread Data**: For spreads on September 11 compared with September 10, the spread of gold TD - SHFE active price decreased by 17.1%, the spread of silver TD - SHFE active price decreased by 16.3%, the spread of gold domestic - foreign (TD - London) increased by 1.2%, the spread of silver domestic - foreign (TD - London) decreased by 22.0%, the SHFE gold - silver ratio decreased by 0.4%, the AU2512 - 2510 spread increased by 12.0%, the AG2512 - 2510 spread increased by 15.0% [5]. Position and Inventory Data - **Position Data**: For COMEX gold non - commercial long positions on September 10 compared with September 9, the number increased by 14.52%, and for COMEX silver non - commercial long positions, it increased by 7.83%. The number of gold ETF - SPDR positions increased by 16.43%, and the number of silver ETF - SLV positions decreased by 14.79% [5]. - **Inventory Data**: On September 10 compared with September 9, SHFE gold inventory increased by 0.96%, COMEX silver inventory remained unchanged, SHFE silver inventory increased by 0.47%, and COMEX gold inventory increased by 9.14% [5]. Interest Rate, Exchange Rate and Stock Market Data - On September 11 compared with September 10, the 2 - year US Treasury yield remained unchanged, the 10 - year US Treasury yield decreased by 0.98%, the US dollar/Chinese yuan central parity rate increased by 2.06%, NYWEX crude oil decreased by 0.04%, the S&P 500 increased by 0.08%, the US dollar index increased by 0.30%, and VIX increased by 1.56% [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core View of the Report - Lithium mica extraction of lithium has changed from a previous contraction to an expansion expectation, which is expected to trigger bearish sentiment in the market, and the futures price may be weak in the short term [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Lithium Compound Prices - The average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate is 72,850 yuan/ton, down 600 yuan/ton [1] - The average price of SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 70,600 yuan/ton, down 600 yuan/ton [1] Lithium Ore Prices - The price of lithium spodumene concentrate (CIF China) is 844 dollars, down 5 dollars [1] - The price of lithium mica (Li20: 1.5% - 2.0%) is 1,075 yuan, down 40 yuan [2] - The price of lithium mica (Li20: 2.0% - 2.5%) is 1,775 yuan, down 40 yuan [2] - The price of amblygonite (Li20: 6% - 7%) is 5,770 yuan, down 230 yuan [2] - The price of amblygonite (Li20: 7% - 8%) is 6,845 yuan, down 205 yuan [2] Lithium Futures Prices - The closing price of lithium carbonate 2509 is 71,020 yuan/ton, up 1.81% [1] - The closing price of lithium carbonate 2510 is 70,860 yuan/ton, up 1.64% [1] - The closing price of lithium carbonate 2511 is 71,000 yuan/ton, up 1.25% [1] - The closing price of lithium carbonate 2512 is 71,300 yuan/ton, up 1.57% [1] - The closing price of lithium carbonate 2601 is 71,280 yuan/ton, up 1.48% [1] Positive Electrode Material Prices - The average price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) is 33,470 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan/ton [2] - The average price of ternary material 811 (polycrystalline/power type) is 145,900 yuan/ton [2] - The average price of ternary material 523 (single - crystal/power type) is 118,750 yuan/ton [2] - The average price of ternary material 613 (single - crystal/power type) is 123,550 yuan/ton [2] Price Differences - The price difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 2,250 yuan/ton [2] - The price difference between battery - grade lithium carbonate and the main contract is 1,850 yuan/ton, down 880 yuan [2] - The price difference between the near - month and the first - continuous contract is - 140 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan [2] - The price difference between the near - month and the second - continuous contract is - 440 yuan/ton, down 120 yuan [2] Inventory - The total inventory (weekly, tons) is 138,512 tons, down 1,580 tons [2] - The smelter inventory (weekly, tons) is 36,213 tons, down 3,262 tons [2] - The downstream inventory (weekly, tons) is 58,279 tons, up 3,072 tons [2] - The other inventory (weekly, tons) is 44,020 tons, down 1,390 tons [2] - The registered warehouse receipts (daily, tons) is 38,391 tons, up 290 tons [2] Profit Estimation - The cash cost of purchasing lithium spodumene concentrate externally is 73,549 yuan, and the profit is - 1,761 yuan [3] - The cash cost of purchasing lithium mica concentrate externally is 77,368 yuan, and the profit is - 7,563 yuan [3] Industry News - Ningde Times' subsidiary is discussing the resumption of production of Shixiawo lithium mine, aiming to resume production in November, but the actual situation is yet to be determined [3] - Six departments jointly issued a notice to carry out a 3 - month special rectification action on network chaos in the automobile industry [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - PTA: Domestic PTA installations are gradually resuming, leading to an increase in domestic PTA production and a rapid decline in PTA basis. OPEC+ will likely increase oil production again at Sunday's meeting. Downstream profits have significantly recovered, and the operating load of polyester has rebounded to 91% [2] - Ethylene Glycol (MEG): The basis of MEG has weakened. The upcoming commissioning of Yulong Petrochemical's MEG plant is putting pressure on the futures market. Although the arrival of overseas MEG installations has decreased, the increase in hedging positions after the price rebound. Polyester inventory is in good condition, and the operating load of downstream weaving has increased [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Quotes - INE Crude Oil: The price rose from 486.2 yuan/barrel on September 10th to 489.2 yuan/barrel on September 11th, an increase of 3.00 yuan/barrel [2] - PTA: The spot price decreased from 4,625 yuan/ton to 4,620 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5.0 yuan/ton. The main futures price dropped from 4,698 yuan/ton to 4,688 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10.0 yuan/ton. The spot processing fee decreased from 134.3 yuan/ton to 126.0 yuan/ton, a decrease of 8.2 yuan/ton. The futures processing fee decreased from 202.3 yuan/ton to 194.0 yuan/ton, also a decrease of 8.2 yuan/ton [2] - MEG: The spot price in Zhangjiagang ethylene glycol market decreased from 4,441.5 yuan/ton to 4,437 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.5 yuan/ton. The main futures price dropped from 4,319 yuan/ton to 4,302 yuan/ton, a decrease of 17.0 yuan/ton [2] Industry Chain Indicators - PX: CFR China PX remained at 838, and the PX-naphtha spread decreased from 241 to 235, a decrease of 6 [2] - Polyester Filament: The POY150D/48F price increased from 6,725 to 6,760, an increase of 35.0. The FDY150D/96F price decreased from 7,025 to 6,990, a decrease of 35.0. The DTY150D/48F price remained unchanged at 8,015. The filament sales rate decreased from 69% to 48%, a decrease of 21% [2] - Polyester Staple Fiber: The 1.4D direct-spun polyester staple fiber price increased from 6,540 to 6,565, an increase of 25. The staple fiber sales rate increased from 55% to 72%, an increase of 17% [2] - Polyester Chip: The semi-gloss chip price increased from 5,770 to 5,775, an increase of 5.0. The chip sales rate decreased from 198% to 54%, a decrease of 144% [2] Installation Maintenance - A 2.5 million-ton PTA installation in East China restarted last weekend after shutting down for maintenance around August 26 [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The A-share market has resumed its upward trend after several days of contraction and oscillation, with future upward potential due to abundant domestic liquidity, increased expectations of a September Fed rate cut, and potential PPI marginal repair and improved A-share profitability. The strategy is to go long opportunistically and utilize the discount advantage of stock index futures to place long orders [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Money Market - **Price Changes**: DROO1 closed at 1.37, down 5.69bp; DR007 at 1.48, up 0.50bp; GC001 at 1.08, down 46.00bp; GC007 at 1.41, down 8.00bp; SHBOR 3M at 1.55, unchanged; LPR 5-year at 3.50, unchanged; 1-year treasury at 1.40, down 1.31bp; 5-year treasury at 1.63, down 2.24bp; 10-year treasury at 1.87, down 1.74bp; 10-year US treasury at 4.04, down 4.00bp [4] - **Market Operations**: The central bank conducted 292 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repurchase operations, with 212.6 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net injection of 79.4 billion yuan. The money market liquidity has marginally eased, and there are increasing expectations for the central bank to restart treasury trading operations [4] 3.2 Stock Index Market - **Price Changes**: The CSI 300 rose 2.31% to 4548; SSE 50 rose 1.48% to 2983; CSI 500 rose 2.75% to 7123; CSI 1000 rose 2.35% to 7400. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets reached 2.4377 trillion yuan, a significant increase of 459.6 billion yuan. Industry sectors generally rose, with electronics, semiconductors, and communication equipment leading the gains, while precious metals and jewelry underperformed [5] - **Market Analysis**: The overnight surge of Oracle boosted the A-share AI sector. The announcement of 10 pilot projects for factor market - oriented allocation reform also contributed to the market's rise. With ample domestic liquidity, increased Fed rate - cut expectations, and potential PPI repair, the A - share market is expected to continue rising [6] 3.3 Stock Index Futures Market - **Volume and Open Interest Changes**: IF volume increased 29.8% to 169,613, and open interest rose 2.4% to 282,139; IH volume increased 33.3% to 70,995, and open interest rose 8.9% to 104,398; IC volume increased 45.5% to 195,795, and open interest rose 7.7% to 266,336; IM volume increased 15.6% to 318,107, and open interest rose 1.2% to 388,332 [5] - **Premium and Discount Situation**: IF had a discount of - 14.01% for the current - month contract, - 1.42% for the next - month contract, a premium of 1.45% for the current - quarter contract, and 1.72% for the next - quarter contract; IH had a discount of - 10.89% for the current - month contract, - 1.88% for the next - month contract, - 0.66% for the current - quarter contract, and - 0.52% for the next - quarter contract; IC had a discount of - 1.21% for the current - month contract and premiums for other contracts; IM had premiums for all contracts [7]

Group 1: Report's Core View - OPEC+ increases production, causing a significant drop in crude oil prices. Domestic PTA plants are gradually resuming, leading to a rise in domestic PTA production and a rapid decline in PTA basis. OPEC+ will consider further increasing oil production at Sunday's meeting. The spread between PX and naphtha remains stable. With the recent improvement in production and sales and inventory reduction, especially the good reduction of filament inventory, downstream profits have been significantly repaired, and the operating load of polyester has rebounded to 91%. However, due to the decline in crude oil prices and the weakening of the basis, PTA shows weakness [2] Group 2: Data Summary Spot Price Changes - PTA spot price decreased from 4625 to 4620, a change of -5.00 [2] - MEG inner - market price decreased from 4439 to 4414, a change of -25.00 [2] Futures Closing Price Changes - PTA closing price decreased from 4698 to 4688, a change of -10.00 [2] - MEG closing price decreased from 4319 to 4302, a change of -17.00 [2] Short - fiber - related Data - 1.4D direct - spun polyester staple fiber price increased from 6540 to 6565, a change of 25.00 [2] - Short - fiber basis increased from 65 to 90, a change of 25.00 [2] - 10 - 11 spread decreased from 14 to 6, a change of -8.00 [2] - Polyester staple fiber cash flow increased from 240 to 246, a change of 6.00 [2] - 1.4D imitation large - chemical fiber price remained unchanged at 5700 [2] - The spread between 1.4D direct - spun and imitation large - chemical fiber increased from 840 to 865, a change of 25.00 [2] Bottle - chip - related Data - East China water bottle chip price increased from 5859 to 5870, a change of 11.00 [2] - Hot - filled polyester bottle chip price increased from 5859 to 5870, a change of 11.00 [2] - Carbonated - grade polyester bottle chip price increased from 5959 to 5970, a change of 11.00 [2] - Outer - market water bottle chip price decreased from 766 to 765, a change of -1.00 [2] - Bottle - chip spot processing fee increased from 418 to 441, a change of 23.65 [2] Other Data - T32S pure - polyester yarn price remained unchanged at 10300 [2] - T32S pure - polyester yarn processing fee decreased from 3760 to 3735, a change of -25.00 [2] - Polyester - cotton yarn 65/35 45S price decreased from 16300 to 16270, a change of -30.00 [2] - Cotton 328 price decreased from 14955 to 14950, a change of -5.00 [2] - Polyester - cotton yarn profit decreased from 1311 to 1266, a change of -44.68 [2] - Primary three - dimensional hollow (with silicon) price remained unchanged at 7110 [2] - Hollow staple fiber 6 - 15D cash flow increased from 469 to 481, a change of 12.65 [2] - Primary low - melting - point staple fiber price remained unchanged at 7450 [2] Group 3: Market Conditions Short - fiber Market - In the short - fiber spot market, the prices of polyester staple fiber production plants are stalemated, and the prices of traders are adjusted within a range. Downstream buyers purchase as needed, and the on - site transactions are sluggish. The price of 1.56dtex*38mm semi - bright natural white (1.4D) polyester staple fiber in the East China market is 6350 - 6600 cash on the spot, tax - included self - pick - up; in the North China market, it is 6470 - 6720 cash on the spot, tax - included delivery; in the Fujian market, it is 6350 - 6570 cash on the spot, tax - included delivery [2] Bottle - chip Market - The mainstream negotiation price of polyester bottle chips in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang markets is 5830 - 5910 yuan/ton, with the average price remaining the same as the previous working day. On the day, polyester raw materials and bottle - chip futures fluctuated slightly. The supply side's offers were mainly stable, and downstream terminals followed up cautiously. The trading atmosphere was light, and the price center of bottle chips remained stable for the time being [2] Group 4: Load and Production - Sales Data - Direct - spun short - fiber load (weekly) increased from 90.60% to 91.10%, a change of 0.01 [3] - Polyester staple fiber production and sales increased from 54.00% to 64.00%, a change of 10.00% [3] - Polyester yarn start - up rate (weekly) increased from 62.00% to 62.80%, a change of 0.01 [3] - Recycled cotton - type load index (weekly) increased from 49.00% to 49.50%, a change of 0.01 [3]

Group 1: Report Information - Report title: Sugar Data Daily [3] - Report date: September 12, 2025 [4] - Analyst: Xie Wei, with futures qualification number F03087820 and investment consulting number Z0019508 [4] Group 2: Domestic Sugar Price Data - On September 11, 2025, the spot price of sugar in Nanning Warehouse, Guangxi was 5970 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a basis of 440 yuan/ton against SR09, down 5 yuan/ton [4] - The spot price in Kunming was 5850 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton, with a basis of 420 yuan/ton against SR09, up 10 yuan/ton [4] - The spot price in Dali was 5715 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton, with a basis of 325 yuan/ton against SR09, up 10 yuan/ton [4] - The spot price in Rizhao, Shandong was 6030 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a basis of 400 yuan/ton against SR09, down 5 yuan/ton [4] - The price of SR09 was 5530 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton; the price of SR01 was 5556 yuan/ton, up 21 yuan/ton; SR09 - 01 was -26, down 16 [4] Group 3: International Data - The exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar was 7.1364, down 0.0105; the exchange rate of the Brazilian real against the RMB was 1.2818, up 0.0212; the exchange rate of the Indian rupee against the RMB was 0.084, down 0.0004 [4] - The price of the ICE raw sugar main contract was 15.89, unchanged; the price of the London white sugar main contract was 573, up 3; the price of the Brent crude oil main contract was 67.6, unchanged [4] Group 4: Core View - During the new crushing season alternation period, the supply is diversified, the game between processed sugar and domestic sugar intensifies, and it is expected to maintain range - bound trading [4] - If Brazil's production exceeds expectations or India relaxes exports, raw sugar may test the previous low again [4]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Bullish**: Gold, Aluminum, Polycrystalline Silicon, Stainless Steel, Iron Ore (long - term), Palm Oil (long - term), Rapeseed Oil (long - term), MO1, Calcium Carbide, PG (long - term) [1] - **Bearish**: Lithium Carbonate, Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC) (short - term), Ethylene Glycol, Benzene, Styrene, CP (short - term) [1] - **Neutral**: Copper, Zinc, Nickel, Tin, Silicon, Rebar, Hot - Rolled Coil, Coke, Sugar, Corn (C01), Pulp, Crude Oil, Fuel Oil, BR Rubber, PTA, Short - Fiber, Natural Gas, Propylene, PVC, Container Shipping to Europe [1] 2) Core Views - Short - term stock index futures' discount has widened again, and with liquidity drive, short - term index adjustments may bring long - position layout opportunities [1] - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks [1] - The expected Fed rate cut in September supports gold prices, and gold may run strongly at high levels in the short term [1] - Weak US non - farm data has led to recession concerns, but the expected Fed rate cut limits the downside of copper prices [1] - With the approaching consumption peak season and the expected Fed rate cut, aluminum prices are expected to run strongly [1] - The supply and demand fundamentals of various commodities are complex, affected by factors such as production capacity changes, inventory levels, and macro - economic policies [1] 3) Summary by Variety Macro - Financial - **Stock Index Futures**: Short - term adjustments may offer long - position opportunities due to widened discount and liquidity drive [1] - **Treasury Bonds**: Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable, but central bank warns of interest - rate risks [1] - **Gold**: Supported by expected Fed rate cut in September, may run strongly at high levels short - term [1] - **Silver**: May run strongly at high levels short - term, beware of increased volatility [1] Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Weak US non - farm data pressures prices, but expected Fed rate cut limits downside [1] - **Aluminum**: Expected to run strongly with approaching consumption peak season and expected Fed rate cut [1] - **Alumina**: Weak fundamentals due to increased production and inventory, consider long - position in far - month contracts [1] - **Zinc**: Social inventory increase pressures prices, but LME inventory decline and macro - support limit downside [1] - **Nickel**: Follows macro - trends and may run strongly short - term, mid - long - term surplus pressure exists [1] - **Stainless Steel**: Raw material support strengthens, futures may fluctuate strongly short - term [1] - **Tin**: Overall supported, look for low - long opportunities [1] - **Silicon**: May fluctuate due to supply resumption and potential policy changes [1] - **Polycrystalline Silicon**: Expected to rise due to capacity reduction and low terminal demand [1] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Expected to decline due to expected mine复产 and limited subsequent replenishment space [1] Ferrous Metals - **Rebar**: Valuation returns to neutral, industry drive is unclear, macro - drive is positive [1] - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: Similar to rebar, valuation neutral, industry drive unclear, macro - drive positive [1] - **Iron Ore**: Near - month limited by production restrictions, far - month has upward potential [1] Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: Short - term回调 risk, long - term bullish, wait for callback to go long [1] - **Soybean Oil**: Domestic inventory may pressure the market, but bullish in Q4, look for callback to go long [1] - **Rapeseed Oil**: Consider 11 - 1 positive spread strategy due to trade - flow possibilities [1] - **Cotton**: New cotton supply may be tight short - term, acquisition game is a focus [1] - **Sugar**: Expected to fluctuate weakly, short - term downside limited [1] - **Corn**: New crop expected to be abundant, C01 suggest shorting at high prices [1] - **MO1**: In an upward channel, affected by USDA report, short - term fluctuate, buy at low prices [1] - **Pulp**: Consider 11 - 1 positive spread due to price changes and inventory adjustments [1] - **Log**: Fundamentals unchanged, futures may fluctuate weakly [1] Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Affected by geopolitical situation, OPEC+ policy, and expected Fed rate cut [1] - **Fuel Oil**: Similar to crude oil, affected by multiple factors [1] - **BR Rubber**: Follow crude oil, pay attention to inventory and device maintenance [1] - **PTA**: Production increases, downstream profit recovers, affected by OPEC+ policy [1] - **Ethylene Glycol**: Expected to decline due to device投产 and increased hedging [1] - **Short - Fiber**: Factory devices resume, market delivery willingness weakens [1] - **Benzene and Styrene**: Supply increases, inventory accumulates, domestic import pressure rises [1] - **Natural Gas**: Limited upside due to weak domestic demand, supported by cost [1] - **Propylene**: Price fluctuates weakly due to macro - environment and demand [1] - **PVC**: Fluctuates due to supply pressure and inventory situation [1] - **Calcium Carbide**: Expected to rise due to approaching peak season and low inventory [1] - **PG**: International oil price supports, but fundamental factors limit upside [1] Others - **Container Shipping to Europe**: Supply exceeds the same - period level, freight rate may decline [1]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Bullish**: Gold, Copper, Aluminum, Nickel, Stainless Steel, Zinc, Tin, Industrial Silicon, Palm Oil, Soybean Meal, Ethanol, Ethylene Glycol, Short - Fiber, Styrene, Propylene, PP, Alumina [1] - **Bearish**: Iron Ore, Coke, Coking Coal, Soda Ash, Black Metal, Cotton, Sugar, Corn, Logs, Crude Oil, Fuel Oil, BR Rubber, PTA, Pure Benzene, Styrene, PVC, LPG, Container Shipping Routes [1] - **Sideways**: Treasury Bonds, Silver, Alumina, Stainless Steel, Rebar, Hot - Rolled Coil, Paper Pulp, Live Pigs, Natural Rubber, PE, PP, PVC, PG [1] Core Views of the Report - Short - term stock index futures' discount has widened again, and with liquidity drive, short - term index adjustments may bring long - position layout opportunities. Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable for bond futures, but the central bank's short - term interest - rate risk warning suppresses the upside. The Fed is expected to cut interest rates in September, providing support for gold prices. [1] - For base metals, the US CPI inflation data basically meets expectations, increasing the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation. The approaching consumption peak season may drive up copper and aluminum prices. Nickel prices are expected to fluctuate strongly in the short - term, but there is still pressure from long - term primary nickel oversupply. [1] - In the black metal sector, the supply - demand situation is not optimistic in the short - term, with supply recovering and demand at risk of weakening, and high inventory levels. The steel market is under pressure due to supply surplus. [1] - In the agricultural products sector, the market situation varies. For example, palm oil has short - term callback risks but long - term upward logic. Cotton has short - term supply tightness, while sugar is expected to be in a weak - sideway trend. [1] - In the energy and chemical sector, the overall situation is affected by factors such as production increases, cost support, and demand changes. For example, crude oil's fundamental situation is loose, and PTA's production has recovered. [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - Financial - **Stock Index Futures**: Short - term discount widening and liquidity drive may offer long - position opportunities during short - term index adjustments [1] - **Treasury Bonds**: Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable, but central - bank interest - rate risk warning suppresses upside [1] Precious Metals - **Gold**: Fed's expected September interest - rate cut provides support, short - term high - level strong operation with attention to volatility risks [1] - **Silver**: Short - term high - level strong operation [1] Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: US inflation data and approaching consumption peak season may drive up prices [1] - **Aluminum**: Fed's interest - rate cut expectation and consumption peak season may lead to a strong trend [1] - **Alumina**: Production and inventory are increasing, but price is near the cost line with limited downward space [1] - **Zinc**: Social inventory increase pressures the price, but LME inventory decline and macro support limit the downside [1] - **Nickel**: Short - term macro - driven strong oscillation, long - term primary nickel oversupply pressure exists [1] - **Stainless Steel**: Raw - material support exists, short - term sideway operation [1] - **Tin**: Overall support exists, pay attention to low - long opportunities [1] Black Metals - **Rebar**: Valuation returns to neutral, industrial drive is unclear, and macro drive is positive [1] - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: Near - month contracts are restricted by production cuts, far - month contracts have upward adjustment opportunities [1] - **Iron Ore**: Short - term supply - demand is not optimistic, with high inventory [1] - **Coke and Coking Coal**: Supply - demand is weak, price is under pressure [1] - **Soda Ash**: Supply surplus pressure is large, price is under pressure [1] Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: Short - term callback risk, long - term upward logic [1] - **Soybean Meal**: Domestic inventory increase may pressure the price, but long - term upward logic remains [1] - **Cotton**: Short - term supply tightness, new - cotton acquisition game is the focus [1] - **Sugar**: Expected to be in a weak - sideway trend, short - term downward space is limited [1] - **Corn**: New - grain harvest may bring selling pressure, C01 is expected to decline [1] - **Soybean Meal**: MO1 has limited downward space, short - term sideway adjustment, consider low - long [1] - **Paper Pulp**: Consider 11 - 1 positive spread [1] - **Logs**: Fundamental situation is stable, price is in a weak - sideway trend [1] Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical tension, OPEC+ production increase, and Fed's interest - rate cut expectation affect the price [1] - **Fuel Oil**: Similar influencing factors as crude oil [1] - **Natural Rubber**: Raw - material cost support, slow inventory removal, and negative market sentiment [1] - **BR Rubber**: Follow crude oil, pay attention to inventory removal and device maintenance [1] - **PTA**: Production recovery, downstream profit improvement [1] - **Ethylene Glycol**: Basis strengthening, new device production pressure [1] - **Short - Fiber**: Device return, weakening delivery willingness [1] - **Pure Benzene and Styrene**: Inventory accumulation, supply increase, import pressure [1] - **PE**: Macro - positive, more maintenance, weak - sideway price [1] - **PP**: Maintenance support is limited, sideway - weak trend [1] - **PVC**: Return to fundamentals, supply pressure, sideway - weak trend [1] - **Alumina**: Approaching peak season, low inventory, price rebound [1] - **LPG**: Crude oil production increase, fundamental pressure, downstream profit deterioration [1] Shipping - **Container Shipping Routes**: September supply exceeds the same - period level, freight rate decline is faster than expected [1]

投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 股指期权数据日报 投资咨询号:Z0000116 国贸期货研究院 2025/9/11 金融衍生品中心 李泽矩 从业资格号:F0251925 数据米源: Wind,因资期货研究 Time to Matutity 行情回顾 成交量(亿) 收盘价 涨跌幅(%) 成交额(亿元) 指数 2939. 5911 0. 37 1338. 02 56. 40 上证50 203. 60 4445. 3649 0. 21 5355. 39 沪深300 252. 67 中证1000 7230. 1678 0. 06 3961. 05 中金所股指期权成交情况 持仓量 期权成交量 认购期权 认洁期权 期权持企量 认购期权 日成交量 认洁期权 指数 持仓量 持仓量 (万张) 成交量 成交量 PCR (万张) PCR 上证50 2. 54 5.72 3. 84 1. 30 3.69 0. 65 0. 51 9. 41 7. 43 沪深300 22. 93 11. 94 4. 51 0. 61 12. 65 10. 28 0. 81 中证1000 30. 11 16. 60 13. 51 35. 2 ...

Report Overview - Report Title: Shipping Derivatives Data Daily Report [4] - Date: September 11, 2025 [5] - Researcher: Lu Zhaoyi from the Energy and Chemical Research Center of Guomao Futures Research Institute [5] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The overall trend of the shipping market is complex, with different trends in different routes and contracts. The EC market shows a volatile trend, and the spot freight rates have not stopped falling. It is recommended to short at high levels in October and conduct a rolling 10 - 12 reverse spread [8][9][10] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Shipping Freight Index - **Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI)**: The current value is 1444, a decrease of 0.04% from the previous value of 1445 [5] - **China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI)**: The current value is 1149, a decrease of 0.62% from the previous value of 1156 [5] - **SCFI - US West**: The current value is 2189, an increase of 13.83% from the previous value of 1923 [5] - **SCFIS - US West**: The current value is 980, a decrease of 3.26% from the previous value of 1013 [5] - **SCFI - US East**: The current value is 3073, an increase of 7.22% from the previous value of 2866 [5] - **SCFI - Northwest Europe**: The current value is 1315, a decrease of 11.21% from the previous value of 1481 [5] - **SCFIS - Northwest Europe**: The current value is 1566, a decrease of 11.68% from the previous value of 1773 [5] - **SCFI - Mediterranean**: The current value is 1971, a decrease of 8.11% from the previous value of 2145 [5] Shipping Derivative Contracts - **Contract Prices**: For contracts such as EC2506, EC2608, etc., the price changes range from -0.85% to 0.66% [5] - **Contract Positions**: For positions such as EC2606, EC2608, etc., the changes range from 17 to 729 [5] - **Monthly Spreads**: The current values of 10 - 12, 12 - 2, and 12 - 4 monthly spreads are -406.6, 150.0, and 428.0 respectively, with changes of 7.6, -5.5, and 1.8 [5] Market News - **Trade Focus Shift**: Tariffs are accelerating the shift of China's trade focus, with Southeast Asia and Africa becoming the main growth points. From January to July 2025, the direct - call voyages from China to Vietnam increased by 22% year - on - year, and the monthly number exceeded 300 since March [6] - **Trade Negotiation Strategy**: Beijing has adopted a new stance in Sino - US trade negotiations, maintaining dialogue but making few concessions, resulting in a subtle "easing" but no substantial trade agreement in the short term [6] - **Trans - Pacific Demand**: The suspension of services by Premier Alliance indicates a decline in trans - Pacific demand, and the number of empty voyages on the US East Coast increased in the first week of September [6] - **India - Europe Route**: The freight rates on the India - Europe route have been lowered due to the normalization of capacity and the lack of obvious peak - season demand. Freight forwarders expect further declines in September, with rates per TEU possibly dropping to $1,100 - $1,200 [6] - **Tariff Ruling**: The Federal Circuit Court of Appeals (CAFC) ruled that Trump exceeded his authority in imposing "fentanyl tariffs" and "reciprocal tariffs" under the IEEPA, but the ruling is suspended until October 14, 2025. The government has appealed to the Supreme Court [6][7] Container Freight Prices - **GBMINI**: The overall average of the alliance is 1800. Maersk's wk38 opening price is 1700; HPL - QQ is 1900 in September, and HPL - SPOT is 1550 [9] - **O1**: The overall average of the alliance is 1950; CMA is 2000, and OOCL is 1900 [9] - **PA**: The overall average of the alliance is 1800. ONE is 2100, and HMM is 1700 - 1900 [9] - **MSC**: The reported price in September is 2050 [9] - **Logic**: Maersk's wk39 opening price is 1550, a decrease of 150 from the previous week. OCC1 has dropped to 1600, and there may be further price drops in September. As market optimism fades and attention refocuses on spot quotes, spot freight rates have not stopped falling. Pre - holiday stockpiling before October 1st may lead to price competition in the second half of September, and the transfer of some US - bound ships to European routes increases supply and further pressures freight rates [9] Strategy - Short at high levels in October and conduct a rolling 10 - 12 reverse spread [10]