Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - Supply disruptions have boosted market sentiment, leading to an increase in lithium carbonate futures prices. However, the actual impact on the fundamentals is limited, with supply increasing and demand remaining stable. Short - term downstream replenishment is large, but the subsequent replenishment space may be limited, and the support for prices may weaken. In the short term, driven by market sentiment, lithium carbonate futures prices may fluctuate [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Lithium Compounds - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price is 64,950 yuan/ton, and SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate average price is 63,350 yuan/ton. The price difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 1,600 yuan/ton, with no change [1][2]. - Futures contracts: Lithium carbonate 2508 closed at 68,060 yuan/ton, up 2.1%; 2509 at 67,960 yuan/ton, up 2.47%; 2510 at 67,580 yuan/ton, up 2.3%; 2511 at 67,180 yuan/ton, up 2.07%; 2512 at 67,500 yuan/ton, up 2.03% [1]. Lithium Ore - Lithium spodumene concentrate (CIF China, Li2O: 5.5% - 6%) is 693 dollars/ton, with a change of 8 dollars/ton. Lithium mica (Li2O: 1.5% - 2.0%) is 910 dollars/ton, with a change of 20 dollars/ton; (Li2O: 2.0% - 2.5%) is 1465 dollars/ton, with a change of 15 dollars/ton. Phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li2O: 6% - 7%) is 4670 dollars/ton; (Li2O: 7% - 8%) is 5535 dollars/ton [1][2]. Cathode Materials - The average price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) is 31,345 yuan/ton, the average price of ternary material 811 (polycrystalline/power type) is 142,650 yuan/ton, the average price of ternary material 523 (single - crystal/power type) is 115,195 yuan/ton, and the average price of ternary material 613 (single - crystal/power type) is 120,115 yuan/ton with no change [2]. Price Spreads - The price difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 1,600 yuan/ton, with no change; the difference between battery - grade and the main contract is - 3,010 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,540 yuan/ton; the difference between the near - month and the first - continuous contract is 100 yuan/ton, a decrease of 80 yuan/ton; the difference between the near - month and the second - continuous contract is 480 yuan/ton, an increase of 40 yuan/ton [2]. Inventory - The total inventory (weekly, tons) is 142,620 tons, an increase of 1,827 tons; smelter inventory (weekly, tons) is 58,039 tons, a decrease of 559 tons; downstream inventory (weekly, tons) is 41,271 tons, an increase of 506 tons; other inventory (weekly, tons) is 43,310 tons, an increase of 1,880 tons; registered warehouse receipts (daily, tons) is 10,239 tons, a decrease of 416 tons [2]. Profit Estimation - The cash cost of externally purchased lithium spodumene concentrate is 64,189 yuan/ton, with a profit of - 126 yuan/ton; the cash cost of externally purchased lithium mica concentrate is 69,638 yuan/ton, with a profit of - 7,116 yuan/ton [3]. Company News - On the afternoon of July 17, 2025, Zangge Mining announced that its wholly - owned subsidiary, Golmud Zangge Potash Fertilizer Co., Ltd., received a notice from the Haixi Natural Resources Bureau and the Haixi Salt Lake Administration on July 16, 2025, requiring it to stop illegal lithium resource development activities immediately, rectify actively, and improve legal procedures for resources. It can only resume production after applying and getting approval [3].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - PTA: With the improvement of commodity sentiment, PTA shows stronger performance under the contraction of supply. Although the polyester downstream load remains at 90% despite the expectation of reduction, the actual polyester output hits a new high. In July, bottle chips and staple fibers are about to enter the maintenance cycle. PTA spot is becoming looser, the market spot arrival volume increases, and due to profit compression, the polyester replenishment willingness is not high. The maintenance of Northeast PX plants and Zhejiang reforming units is postponed [2]. - MEG: Coal prices rise slightly, and commodity sentiment improves significantly. The later arrival volume of MEG is large. Polyester production and sales weaken, and polyester enters the maintenance cycle. The rapid rise of polyester prices shrinks the downstream weaving profit, and the terminal load drops significantly, which has a certain negative impact on the market. It is expected that North American ethane will arrive smoothly, and domestic devices will not be affected [2]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Market Quotes - INE crude oil price decreased from 517.4 yuan/barrel on July 16, 2025, to 516.8 yuan/barrel on July 17, 2025, a decrease of 0.6 yuan/barrel [2]. - PTA主力期价 rose from 4706 yuan/ton to 4714 yuan/ton, an increase of 8 yuan/ton; the spot price rose from 4720 yuan/ton to 4730 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton; the spot processing fee increased from 211.5 yuan/ton to 236 yuan/ton, an increase of 24.5 yuan/ton; the disk processing fee increased from 202.5 yuan/ton to 220 yuan/ton, an increase of 17.5 yuan/ton; the main basis increased from 11 to 24, an increase of 13; the number of PTA warehouse receipts decreased from 40760 to 30866, a decrease of 9894 [2]. - MEG主力期价 rose from 4351 yuan/ton to 4372 yuan/ton, an increase of 21 yuan/ton; the MEG - naphtha spread increased from -103.92 yuan/ton to -101.11 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.8 yuan/ton; the MEG domestic price rose from 4400 yuan/ton to 4437 yuan/ton, an increase of 37 yuan/ton; the main basis decreased from 72 to 70, a decrease of 2 [2]. Industrial Chain Start - up Situation - PX start - up rate decreased from 78.98% to 78.32%, a decrease of 0.66%; PTA start - up rate remained unchanged at 80.59%; MEG start - up rate decreased from 56.65% to 56.46%, a decrease of 0.19%; polyester load remained unchanged at 87.15% [2]. Polyester Product Situation - Among polyester filaments, the price of POY150D/48F decreased from 6570 yuan/ton to 6540 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan/ton; the cash flow decreased from -190 yuan/ton to -241 yuan/ton, a decrease of 51 yuan/ton. The price of FDY150D/96F decreased from 6815 yuan/ton to 6795 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton; the cash flow decreased from -445 yuan/ton to -486 yuan/ton, a decrease of 41 yuan/ton. The price of DTY150D/48F decreased from 7890 yuan/ton to 7805 yuan/ton, a decrease of 85 yuan/ton; the cash flow decreased from -70 yuan/ton to -176 yuan/ton, a decrease of 106 yuan/ton. The long - filament production and sales decreased from 41% to 40%, a decrease of 1% [2]. - For polyester staple fibers, the price of 1.4D direct - spun polyester staple decreased from 6680 yuan/ton to 6635 yuan/ton, a decrease of 45 yuan/ton; the cash flow decreased from 270 yuan/ton to 204 yuan/ton, a decrease of 66 yuan/ton; the staple - fiber production and sales increased from 44% to 52%, an increase of 8% [2]. - In terms of polyester chips, the price of semi - bright chips remained unchanged at 5770 yuan/ton; the chip cash flow decreased from -90 yuan/ton to -111 yuan/ton, a decrease of 21 yuan/ton; the chip production and sales decreased from 63% to 56%, a decrease of 7% [2]. Device Maintenance Dynamics - A 1.5 million - ton PTA device in East China has been restarted after being shut down for maintenance around May 6. A 3 million - ton PTA device in East China has been shut down for maintenance recently, with an expected maintenance period of about 10 days [2].

Group 1: Report's Core View - On July 17th, glass and soda ash fluctuated with a slight upward trend. Glass price fluctuations are mainly driven by market sentiment. In the short - term, supply - demand has marginally improved, spot prices are stable, demand is resilient, inventory is being reduced, and market sentiment is positive, providing price support. For soda ash, recent maintenance has gradually ended, supply is expected to increase, direct demand is expected to weaken, concerns about supply - demand surplus have resurfaced, profits of float and photovoltaic glass are poor, and cost support has weakened, putting pressure on prices [2] - The trading strategy is to hold short - position options for soda ash and long - position contracts for glass [2] Group 2: Market Data Futures Data - For glass futures contracts in January, May, and September 2025, the closing prices are 1168, 1092, and 1236 respectively, with price increases of 6, 4, and 22, and increase rates of 0.52%, 0.32%, and 2.06% respectively. For soda ash futures contracts in the same months, the closing prices are 1271, 1307, and 1225 respectively, with price increases of 17, 16, and 17, and increase rates of 1.36%, 1.24%, and 1.41% respectively [1] - The price spreads between different glass futures contracts: January - May is - 68, May - September is 144, September - January is - 76; for soda ash, January - May is - 36, May - September is 82, September - January is - 46 [1] Spot Data - Glass spot prices in different regions: 1160 in the East China region, 1290 in another region, and 1300 in North China. Soda ash spot prices in different regions: 9960 in the Northwest, 1300 in North China, and 1250 in East China [1] Basis Data - The main glass basis in different regions: 68, 148, and 198; for soda ash, - 265, 75, and 25 [1]

Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: Precious Metals Data Daily [4] - Date: July 18, 2025 [5] - Research Institution: ITC Guomao Futures [3] - Analyst: Baishuna from the Macroeconomic and Financial Research Center [5] Group 2: Market Data Price and Price Changes - On July 17, 2025, London Gold Spot was at $3334.99/ounce (-0.1% from the previous day), London Silver Spot at $37.88/ounce (0.0% change), COMEX Gold at $3340.80/ounce (-0.2% change), and COMEX Silver at $38.11/ounce (-0.2% change). Shanghai gold and silver futures and spot also had corresponding price changes [5]. - The price differences and ratios between different gold and silver varieties also changed. For example, the gold TD - SHFE active price difference was -2.24 yuan/gram on July 17, with a 14.3% change from the previous day [5]. Positions and Inventories - As of July 16, 2025, the non - commercial long and short positions of COMEX gold and silver had different degrees of change compared to the previous day. Gold ETF - SPDR was at 950.79 tons (0.33% change), and Silver ETF - SLV was at 14819.28626 tons (-0.25% change) [5]. - On July 17, 2025, SHFE gold inventory was 28872.00 kg (0.00% change from the previous day), and SHFE silver inventory was 1217085.00 kg (0.35% change). COMEX gold and silver inventories also had slight increases [5]. Interest Rates, Exchange Rates, and Other Market Indicators - On July 17, 2025, the US dollar/Chinese yuan central parity rate was 7.15 (-0.09% change). The US dollar index was 98.29 (-0.35% change), and US Treasury yields and other indicators also changed [5]. Group 3: Core Views Short - term Logic - The decrease in the number of initial jobless claims in the US and strong retail sales data weakened the short - term downward risk of the US economy, which put pressure on precious metal prices. However, due to the uncertainty of tariffs and the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in September, precious metal prices were also supported. It is expected that gold prices will continue to fluctuate. For silver, although the market risk preference is still high, the silver price may gradually strengthen, and the gold - silver ratio may start to rise [5]. Medium - and Long - term Logic - Against the background of the trade war, the Fed still has a certain probability of cutting interest rates this year. With global geopolitical uncertainties, the intensification of great - power games, and the wave of de - dollarization, the long - term upward trend of gold has not changed. It is recommended to continue to allocate long positions on dips [5]. Group 4: Market News - US President Trump announced on the 12th that starting from August 1, a 30% tariff would be imposed on EU imported goods. The EU Commission stated on the 14th that if the US - EU trade negotiation fails, the EU is ready to impose additional counter - tariffs on US imported products worth about $84 billion and has formulated a counter - measure list [5]. - Trump said he did not plan to remove Fed Chairman Powell from office. Fed official Williams said that the initial impact of tariffs on commodity prices was starting to be seen, and the impact on inflation was expected to intensify in the coming months [5]. - The number of initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending July 12 was 221,000, a new low since the week ending April 12, 2025. The number of continued jobless claims for the week ending July 5 was 1.956 million, lower than expected [5].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2) Core View of the Report - In the short term, methanol prices will fluctuate within a range. In the medium to long term, the methanol spot market may shift from strong to weak and fluctuate [1]. 3) Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Spot Price - Yesterday, methanol prices in multiple regions saw a slight increase. In the northwest main production area, enterprise inventories were at a low level, and the willingness of downstream and traders to replenish at low prices increased, leading to higher auction transaction prices. The positive sentiment in the futures market drove smooth new - order transactions in the afternoon, with some enterprises suspending sales and holding prices, pushing up the spot prices. Downstream buyers are mainly in a wait - and - see mode, and after replenishing at low prices earlier, their purchases have become more rational. The market trend depends on the downstream procurement transactions on Tuesday [1]. Supply - Domestic methanol production increased from 268,235.00 to 269,435.00, an increase of 1,200.00. The domestic operating rate rose from 83.04 to 83.41, an increase of 0.37, while the international operating rate remained unchanged at 72.33 [1]. Import - The arrival weight remained unchanged at 31.03 [1]. Inventory - Both enterprise inventory and port inventory remained unchanged at 356,900.00 and 718,900.00 respectively [1]. Demand - The order backlog remained unchanged at 221,240.00. The operating rates of various downstream products remained mostly unchanged, with only the MTBE price rising from 5,000.00 to 5,050.00, an increase of 50.00 [1]. Associated Product Prices - Most associated product prices remained unchanged, with only the MTBE price increasing by 50.00 [1].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bullish: Index Futures, Polysilicon [1] - Bearish: Copper, Aluminum, Zinc, Stainless Steel [1] - Volatile: Treasury Bonds, Gold, Silver, Alumina, Nickel, Industrial Silicon, Lithium Carbonate, Rebar, Hot Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Manganese Silicon, Ferrosilicon, Glass, Soda Ash, Coking Coal, Coke, Palm Oil, Rapeseed Oil, Cotton, Sugar, Corn, Soybean Meal, Pulp, Live Pigs, Crude Oil, Fuel Oil, HK, BR Rubber, PTA, Ethylene Glycol, Short Fiber, Styrene, PE, PVC, Chlor - Alkali, LPG, Container Shipping European Line [1] Core Views - The market's reaction to negative news in the stock index has become dull, with strong trading volume and sentiment. The market's willingness to allocate equity assets has increased, and short - term index futures are expected to fluctuate strongly [1]. - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank's short - term interest rate risk warning restricts the upward space [1]. - Gold and silver prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term due to various factors such as the strength of the US dollar and market uncertainties [1]. - Copper prices may fall due to US inflation rebound and potential copper tariff implementation [1]. - Aluminum prices are expected to weaken due to high prices suppressing demand and inventory accumulation [1]. - Alumina prices have stabilized and rebounded due to supply - side reform expectations [1]. - Zinc prices are under pressure, and short - selling opportunities should be watched for [1]. - Nickel prices are volatile, and short - term short - selling and long - term supply pressure should be considered [1]. - Tin prices have short - term support but may decline in the long term [1]. - The prices of various industrial and agricultural products are affected by factors such as supply and demand, policies, and macro - economic conditions, showing different trends of rise, fall, or fluctuation [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - finance - Index Futures: The market's reaction to negative news is dull, trading volume and sentiment are strong. With the "asset shell" situation and "national team" support, the market's willingness to allocate equity assets has increased. Short - term index futures are expected to fluctuate strongly [1] - Treasury Bonds: Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank's short - term interest rate risk warning restricts the upward space [1] Precious Metals - Gold: Market uncertainties exist, and gold prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term [1] - Silver: The strengthening of the US dollar may suppress silver prices, and silver prices are expected to fluctuate [1] Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: US inflation rebound and potential copper tariff implementation may lead to a decline in copper prices [1] - Aluminum: High prices suppress demand, inventory accumulates, and aluminum prices are expected to weaken [1] - Alumina: Supply - side reform expectations have led to price stabilization and rebound [1] - Zinc: Prices are under pressure, and short - selling opportunities should be watched for [1] - Nickel: Prices are volatile, and short - term short - selling and long - term supply pressure should be considered [1] - Stainless Steel: Futures prices are volatile, and short - selling hedging and positive basis trading opportunities should be grasped [1] - Tin: Short - term support exists, but prices may decline in the long term [1] Industrial Products - Industrial Silicon: Supply and demand factors co - exist, and the market has high sentiment [1] - Polysilicon: Bullish due to supply - side reform expectations and high market sentiment [1] - Lithium Carbonate: Supply and demand factors lead to price fluctuations [1] - Rebar and Hot Rolled Coil: Supported by strong furnace materials, prices are expected to fluctuate [1] - Iron Ore: Market sentiment is good, but fundamentals are weakening, and prices are expected to fluctuate [1] - Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon: Supply and demand are relatively balanced, and prices are expected to fluctuate [1] - Glass: Short - term support exists, but medium - term over - supply may limit price increases [1] - Soda Ash: Supply is expected to increase, demand is weak, and prices are under pressure [1] - Coking Coal and Coke: Due to market expectations, short - selling should be avoided in the short term, and positive basis trading opportunities should be grasped [1] Agricultural Products - Palm Oil: MPOB monthly report is neutral to bearish, and wait for a callback to buy the 01 contract [1] - Rapeseed Oil: The entry of Australian rapeseed may have a negative impact on prices in the short term [1] - Cotton: Domestic cotton prices are expected to fluctuate weakly [1] - Sugar: Brazilian sugar production is expected to increase, and price trends are affected by factors such as crude oil prices [1] - Corn: CO9 is expected to fluctuate, and C01 is recommended to short at high prices [1] - Soybean Meal: MO1 is supported, and a low - buying strategy can be adopted [1] Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil and Fuel Oil: Affected by factors such as geopolitical situation, OPEC+ production, and seasonal consumption, prices are expected to fluctuate [1] - HK: Downstream demand is weakening, supply is expected to increase, and inventory is increasing slightly [1] - BR Rubber: Fundamentals are under pressure, but there is some support from device maintenance [1] - PTA: Supply has shrunk, but crude oil is strong. Polyester downstream load remains high, and market supply is becoming more abundant [1] - Ethylene Glycol: Coal prices have risen slightly, and there are factors of supply increase and decrease [1] - Short Fiber: Warehouse receipt registration is low, and cost follows closely [1] - Styrene: Device load has increased, and the basis has weakened [1] - PE: Macro - sentiment has subsided, and prices are expected to fluctuate weakly [1] - PVC: Affected by factors such as coking coal prices and seasonal demand, prices are expected to fluctuate strongly [1] - Chlor - Alkali: Maintenance is coming to an end, and attention should be paid to changes in liquid chlorine [1] - LPG: Affected by factors such as crude oil prices and seasonal demand, prices are expected to fluctuate weakly [1] Others - Container Shipping European Line: The freight rate is expected to show an arc - top trend, and the peak time is advanced [1]

Market Review - The closing prices of the Shanghai 50, CSI 300, and CSI 1000 were 2740.9006, 4007.2019, and 6462.063 respectively, with changes of -0.23%, -0.30%, and 0.30%. Their trading volumes were 34.25 billion, 151.03 billion, and 220.23 billion, and trading turnovers were 681.42 billion yuan, 3006.57 billion yuan, and 3060.83 billion yuan [4]. - The option trading volumes of the Shanghai 50, CSI 300, and CSI 1000 were 4.24 million, 9.69 million, and 25.56 million contracts respectively. Their option open - interests were 7.53 million, 20.08 million, and 28.70 million contracts [4]. - The Shanghai Composite Index closed down 0.03% at 3503.78 points, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.22%, the ChiNext Index dropped 0.22%, the Beijing Stock Exchange 50 rose 0.27%, the STAR 50 rose 0.14%, the Wind All - A rose 0.06%, the Wind 8500 fell 0.27%, and the CSI A500 fell 0.22%. A - share trading volume was 1.46 trillion yuan, compared with 1.64 trillion yuan the previous day [10]. Volatility Analysis Shanghai 50 Volatility - The historical volatility of the Shanghai 50 is presented with values for different time - frames and percentile levels. The difference between HV5 and HV20 is also shown [8][9]. - The next - month at - the - money implied volatility and the volatility smile curve for the Shanghai 50 are analyzed [9]. CSI 300 Volatility - The historical volatility of the CSI 300 shows values for different time - frames and percentile levels, and the difference between HV5 and HV20 is provided [9]. - The next - month at - the - money implied volatility and the volatility smile curve for the CSI 300 are presented [9]. CSI 1000 Volatility - The historical volatility of the CSI 1000 is presented with values for different time - frames and percentile levels [10]. - The next - month at - the - money implied volatility and the volatility smile curve for the CSI 1000 are analyzed [10].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The overall weather for US soybeans is suitable, but there is a trend of high - temperature and dryness in Kansas in the second week, which needs further observation. Brazilian discounts have slightly declined but are still expected to be firm. The domestic market is in a inventory - building cycle, with the basis expected to fluctuate at a low level. The import cost is expected to support the 101 contract, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile, with a focus on buying on dips [8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Supply - The excellent - good rate of US soybeans has risen to 70%, higher than last year and market expectations, and the weather will be normal in the next two weeks. Under the pressure of concentrated arrivals of Brazilian soybeans, the domestic soybean supply reduction in July and August is expected to be over one million tons. The pressure of soybean meal inventory accumulation is expected to last until September, and the ship - booking from October to January is slow [7][8]. Demand - Pig and poultry farming are expected to maintain high inventories in the short term, supporting feed demand. Soybean meal has a high cost - performance ratio, the proportion of feed addition has increased, and提货 is at a high level. Wheat has replaced corn in some areas, reducing the demand for protein. Recently, the trading volume of soybean meal has increased at low prices [8]. Inventory - Domestic soybean inventory has reached a high level; soybean meal is in an inventory - building cycle; the number of days of soybean meal inventory in feed enterprises has increased [8]. Price and Spread - For 43% soybean meal spot basis on July 16th, in Dalian it was - 37, in Rizhao - 157, in Tianjin - 57, in Zhangjiagang - 157 (down 9), in Dongguan - 177, in Zhanjiang - 127, and in Fangcheng - 137. The rapeseed meal spot basis was - 53 (up 2). The M9 - M1 spread was - 34, M9 - RM9 was 3, and RM9 - 1 was 344. The spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal in Guangdong was 324, and the futures price difference of the main contract was also provided [6][7]. International Data - The US dollar to RMB exchange rate was 7.1322, the futures crushing profit was 265 yuan/ton (down 5), and the import soybean futures gross profit was also mentioned. The CNF premium of imported soybeans was shown in the chart [7].

Group 1: Financial Market Data - DRO01 closed at 1.47 with a -6.11bp change, DR007 at 1.53 with a -4.05bp change, GC001 at 1.50 with a 0.50bp change, and GC007 at 1.54 with a -1.50bp change [3] - SHBOR 3M closed at 1.56 with no change, LPR 5 - year at 3.50 with no change, 1 - year treasury at 1.35 with a -0.60bp change, 5 - year treasury at 1.51 with a 0.60bp change, 10 - year treasury at 1.66 with a 0.40bp change, and 10 - year US treasury at 4.50 with a 7.00bp change [3] - The central bank conducted 520.1 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations with an interest rate of 1.4%, and the net injection was 444.6 billion yuan after 75.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchases matured [3] Group 2: Market Analysis - This week, 425.7 billion yuan of reverse repurchases will mature in the central bank's open - market operations. Due to the tax period, liquidity has tightened, and the central bank's reverse repurchases have increased to signal care for the capital market [4] - The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 fell 0.3% to 4007.2, the Shanghai 50 fell 0.23% to 2740.9, the CSI 500 fell 0.03% to 6017.2, and the CSI 1000 rose 0.3% to 6462.1. The trading volume of the two markets was 1.442 trillion yuan, a decrease of 170 billion yuan [5] - The stock index fluctuated throughout the day. The banking sector corrected, and small and medium - cap stocks rose slightly due to news about AMD. The stock index is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term due to factors like the "asset shortage" and policy expectations [6] Group 3: Futures Data - IF's current - month contract closed at 3998 with a -0.3% change, IH at 2734 with a -0.2% change, IC at 6007 with no change, and IM at 6444 with a 0.3% change [5] - IF's trading volume was 100,264 with a -19.3% change, and its position was 255,864 with a -4.3% change; IH's trading volume was 49,486 with a -19.3% change, and its position was 91,270 with a -6.4% change; IC's trading volume was 100,200 with a -0.5% change, and its position was 223,573 with a -3.3% change; IM's trading volume was 197,891 with a -6.0% change, and its position was 326,014 with a -5.4% change [5] - IF's current - month contract had an annualized premium rate of 41.91%, IH 48.61%, IC 32.13%, and IM 49.88% [7]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views - The main reasons for the significant increase in the 10 and far - month contracts are the change of the main contract from 2508 to 2510, better - than - expected spot market and European port congestion, and some assistance from geopolitical factors. The current situation of European routes is stable reality and weak expectation. After the repair of deep discount on the disk, investors should not chase high. The recommended strategy is to short 10 contracts on rallies and hold the 12 - 4 calendar spread [10][11][12]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content Shipping Derivatives Data - **Container Freight Index**: The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) stood at 1733, down 1.71% from the previous value; the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) was 1314, down 2.18%. Among different routes, SCFI - US West increased by 5.03%, SCFIS - US West decreased by 18.69%, SCFI - US East rose by 1.16%, SCFI - Northwest Europe dropped by 0.10%, SCFIS - Northwest Europe increased by 7.22%, and SCFI - Mediterranean decreased by 7.04% [3]. - **EC Contracts**: The EC contracts generally showed a trend of decline. For example, EC2506 decreased by 2.42%, EC2508 increased by 1.27%, EC2510 decreased by 3.47%, EC2512 decreased by 4.19%, EC5602 decreased by 3.50%, and EC2604 decreased by 2.90%. In terms of positions, there were increases and decreases in different contracts. For example, EC2606 position increased by 4, EC2508 position decreased by 2808, EC2410 position increased by 3849, etc. The month - spread also changed, with the 10 - 12 month - spread increasing by 84.5, the 12 - 2 month - spread increasing by 19.5, and the 12 - 4 month - spread decreasing by 38.8 [3]. Market News - **Geopolitical News**: Protests broke out in Israel demanding a hostage agreement. Israel accepted a 60 - day cease - fire and hostage release draft proposed by Qatar, but Hamas rejected it. The core of the deadlock is the map parameters for the Israeli army's withdrawal from Gaza. Israel will propose a new map plan next Monday [4]. - **Shipping Market News**: MSK opened bookings for wk31 at a flat price of 3000. Some 0A ships' offline sailings can guarantee cabins, have long - free timeliness, and allow for off - site container returns at the destination port. MSK has some single - point cabin space on European routes. For PA7 at the end of the month, some special - price cabins for matching goods still need to be booked in advance, and the overall cabin space at the end of the month is abundant. European port congestion has not been alleviated due to factors such as labor shortages, strikes at the Port of Antwerp, low Rhine River water levels, and increased risks in the Red Sea route [5][6][7][8]. EC Market - **Market Review**: The market declined. The EC2510 contract rose by more than 16% again yesterday, with a cumulative increase of more than 20% in two days [9]. - **Reasons for the Increase**: The main reasons for the significant increase in the 10 and far - month contracts are the change of the main contract, better - than - expected spot market and European port congestion, and some assistance from geopolitical factors [10][11]. - **Outlook and Strategy**: There may still be a rush to ship in July. The current situation of European routes is stable reality and weak expectation. The spot market is expected to enter an arc - top trend from late July to early August. The recommended strategy is to short 10 contracts on rallies and hold the 12 - 4 calendar spread [11][12].