1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The impact of economic and corporate earnings on the stock index is neutral. In August, the growth rate of social financing declined for the first time, with a year - on - year decrease of 463 billion yuan in new social financing. The growth rate of government bond net financing decreased year - on - year for the first time since November 2023. Corporate short - term loans reached a record high, while household short - term loans hit a new low. The year - on - year growth rate of M1 increased slightly, but the growth rate slowed down [3]. - Macroeconomic policies have a slightly positive impact on the stock index. The Ministry of Finance will maintain policy continuity and stability, and strengthen flexibility and foresight. The market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cuts within the year has increased [3]. - Overseas factors have a slightly positive impact on the stock index. In August, the year - on - year growth rates of the US CPI and core CPI were within market expectations, and the market expects the Fed to cut interest rates three times this year. Sino - US leaders will hold talks [3]. - Liquidity has a positive impact on the stock index. As of September 11, the proportion of margin trading purchases in the total market turnover was at a high level in the past decade. However, last week, the average daily trading volume decreased compared with the previous week [3]. - The investment view is to adjust and go long. Next week, there will be a large number of domestic and foreign macro - events. The Fed will announce its September interest rate decision, and Sino - US leaders will hold talks. The trading volume of the market has decreased, and the driving force of liquidity on the stock index has weakened. It is recommended to control risks in stock index positions and mainly adjust and go long [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Part One: Main Viewpoints and Strategy Overview - **Influence Factors and Driving Forces**: Economic and corporate earnings are neutral; macro - policies are slightly positive; overseas factors are slightly positive; liquidity is positive [3]. - **Investment View and Strategy**: The investment view is to adjust and go long. The trading strategy is to adjust and go long unilaterally, and pay attention to domestic policies and overseas geopolitical factors [3]. 3.2 Part Two: Stock Index Market Review - **Stock Index Performance**: Last week, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 rose 1.38% to 4522; the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 rose 0.89% to 2968.5; the CSI 500 rose 3.38% to 7147.7; the CSI 1000 rose 2.45% to 7422.9 [5]. - **Industry Index Performance**: Among the Shenwan primary industry indices, electronics, real estate, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, media, and non - ferrous metals led the gains last week, while only the comprehensive, banking, pharmaceutical and biological, and social service sectors declined [10]. - **Futures Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of stock index futures decreased, and the open interest of some contracts changed. For example, the trading volume of CSI 300 futures decreased by 21.88%, and the open interest increased by 0.05% [12]. - **Contract Premium and Discount**: As of September 12, different contracts of various stock index futures had different premium or discount rates [16]. - **Cross - Variety Spread Performance**: The spread between the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 and the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50, and the spread between the CSI 1000 and the CSI 500 were at different historical percentile levels [20]. 3.3 Part Three: Stock Index Influencing Factors - Liquidity - **Funding and Macro - Liquidity**: The central bank conducted 1264.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations this week, with a net investment of 196.1 billion yuan. Next week, 1264.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchase will mature, and there will also be 120 billion yuan of treasury cash fixed - term deposits maturing [27]. - **Market Trading Volume and Margin Trading Balance**: As of September 11, the margin trading balance of A - shares increased, and the proportion of margin trading purchases in the total market turnover was at a high level in the past decade. The average daily trading volume last week decreased compared with the previous week [34]. 3.4 Part Four: Stock Index Influencing Factors - Economic Fundamentals and Corporate Earnings - **China's Macroeconomic Indicators**: In August, indicators such as GDP, industrial added value, and social financing showed different trends. For example, the growth rate of social financing stock declined for the first time after rising for 10 consecutive months [37]. - **Economic Fundamentals - Real Estate**: The real estate market showed signs of weakness, such as a decline in the growth rate of real estate investment [37]. - **Economic Fundamentals - Consumption**: The growth rates of various consumption indicators showed different trends, with some categories experiencing growth and others decline [48]. - **Economic Fundamentals - Manufacturing**: The growth rate of the manufacturing industry showed a certain degree of slowdown, but different sub - sectors had different performances [49]. - **Corporate Earnings**: The earnings of different stock indices and industries showed different trends. For example, the year - on - year growth rate of the net profit of the CSI 500 was 7.30% in the first half of 2025 [56]. 3.5 Part Four: Stock Index Influencing Factors - Policy Driving - **Recent Macro - Policy Trends**: A series of policies have been introduced in the real estate, consumption, and finance sectors. For example, Shanghai and Shenzhen have adjusted real estate purchase restrictions, and the government has introduced a fiscal subsidy policy for personal consumption loans [61][62]. 3.6 Part Five: Stock Index Influencing Factors - Overseas Factors - **US Economic Data**: In August, the US manufacturing PMI and non - manufacturing PMI increased, the consumer confidence index rose, the unemployment rate increased slightly, and the number of new non - farm jobs decreased. The growth rates of CPI and core CPI were within market expectations, while the year - on - year growth rates of PCE and core PCE were 0% [70][73]. - **Trump Team's Statements and Measures**: Trump has proposed a series of tariff policies, which have had an impact on global trade and Sino - US economic and trade relations [79][81]. 3.7 Part Six: Stock Index Influencing Factors - Valuation - **Index Valuation Levels**: As of September 12, 2025, the rolling price - to - earnings ratios of the CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 were at different historical percentile levels [87]. - **Sector Profitability and Valuation Levels**: Different sectors had different levels of return on equity, revenue growth rates, and price - to - earnings and price - to - book ratios [91].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view on the log industry is "volatile", indicating that the log futures are expected to experience a weak and volatile trend [3] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The supply of logs is bearish as the number of departing ships from New Zealand and the total shipment volume decreased in August 2025, and some foreign merchants lowered their quotes. The demand, inventory, and trade profit are neutral. The overall investment view is that the log futures will be in a weak and volatile state due to the decline in the foreign market quotes [3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs PART ONE: Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: In August 2025, about 44 ships departed from New Zealand, a decrease of 3 from July. The total shipment volume was about 1.666 million cubic meters, a 4% decrease from July. 35 ships were bound for China with a shipment volume of about 1.36 million cubic meters, accounting for 82% and an 8% decrease from July. Some foreign merchants lowered their quotes [3] - **Demand**: From September 1 - 7, the average daily outbound volume of coniferous logs at 13 ports in 7 Chinese provinces was 61,200 cubic meters, a 1.29% decrease from the previous week. Shandong ports had an average daily outbound volume of 33,400 cubic meters, a 5.65% decrease, and Jiangsu ports had 21,600 cubic meters, a 4.85% decrease [3] - **Inventory**: As of September 5, the total domestic coniferous log inventory was 2.94 million cubic meters, a decrease of 30,000 cubic meters and a 1.01% week - on - week decrease. The radiata pine inventory was 2.39 million cubic meters, a decrease of 50,000 cubic meters and a 2.05% week - on - week decrease [3] - **Trade Profit**: After the decline in the foreign market quotes, the import profit has been repaired. The import profit of domestic traders for 3.9 medium A logs is about - 38 yuan/m³ [3] - **Investment View**: The log futures are expected to be in a weak and volatile state due to the decline in the foreign market quotes [3] - **Trading Strategy**: No specific strategies for unilateral and arbitrage trading are provided. Attention should be paid to the domestic demand situation [3] PART TWO: Review of Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Market**: Last week, the log futures contracts were in a weak and volatile state. The foreign market quotes dropped significantly in September 2025, and some spot specifications also declined. However, the inventory has not reached the inflection point of accumulation, so the overall trend is weak [7] - **Futures and Spot Prices**: The log futures and spot prices are presented in a graph, showing the relationship between the basis, futures closing price, and spot price [8] - **Futures Positions**: As of September 12, 2025, the total position of log futures contracts was 22,108 lots, a 0.7% decrease from the previous week. The position of the main log futures contract 2511 was 15,449 lots, a 4.4% decrease from the previous week [12] - **Spot Prices**: As of September 12, 2025, the prices of radiata pine in Shandong and Jiangsu for different specifications are stable [16] PART THREE: Fundamental Data of Log Supply and Demand - **Import Volume**: In July 2025, China's total coniferous log import volume was about 1.9533 million cubic meters, a 10.26% month - on - month decrease and a 3.90% year - on - year decrease. From January to July 2025, the total import volume was about 14.2897 million cubic meters, a 6.57% year - on - year decrease. The import volume from New Zealand and of radiata pine also showed different changes [20] - **Shipping and Shipment**: In August 2025, about 44 ships departed from New Zealand, a decrease of 3 from July. The total shipment volume was about 1.666 million cubic meters, a 4% decrease from July. 35 ships were bound for China with a shipment volume of about 1.36 million cubic meters, an 8% decrease from July [22] - **Import Cost and Profit**: As of September 2025, the CFR quote of radiata pine is 113 - 115 US dollars/JASm³, with an import profit of about - 38 yuan/m³. In August 2025, the AWG price at the New Zealand port warehouse was 125 New Zealand dollars/JASm³, with an export profit of about 1.4 New Zealand dollars/JAS/m³ [29] - **Inventory**: As of September 5, the total domestic coniferous log inventory was 2.94 million cubic meters, a 1.01% week - on - week decrease. The radiata pine inventory was 2.39 million cubic meters, a 2.05% week - on - week decrease. The inventory in different regions and of different species also changed [33] - **Outbound Volume**: From September 1 - 7, the average daily outbound volume of coniferous logs at 13 ports in 7 Chinese provinces was 61,200 cubic meters, a 1.29% decrease from the previous week. The outbound volume in Shandong and Jiangsu ports also decreased [36] - **Wooden Square Price and Processing Profit**: As of September 12, 2025, the wooden square price in Shandong was 1,270 yuan/m³, unchanged from the previous week. In Jiangsu, it was 1,270 yuan/m³, a 10 - yuan/m³ decrease from the previous week. The processing profit in Shandong was 16 yuan/m³, unchanged, and in Jiangsu, it was - 14.6 yuan/m³, a 10 - yuan/m³ decrease [39]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view on the crude oil industry is "oscillating" [3] 2. Core View of the Report - OPEC+ continues to increase production, compensatory production cuts offset some pessimistic sentiment, the summer consumption peak season ends, US inventories accumulate, and the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in September strengthens. Short - term oil prices will still show an oscillating performance [3] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply (Medium - long term)**: EIA, OPEC, and IEA all show an overall increase in global crude oil production. EIA expects 2025 global crude oil and related liquid production to be 10,553 million barrels per day, up 2.34 million barrels per day from 2024. In August, OPEC countries' crude oil production increased compared to July according to different reports [3] - **Demand (Medium - long term)**: EIA, OPEC, and IEA all have neutral to slightly positive views on demand. EIA expects 2025 global crude oil and related liquid demand to be 10,381 million barrels per day, up 0.9 million barrels per day from 2024 [3] - **Inventory (Short term)**: US commercial crude oil inventories excluding strategic reserves increased by 3.939 million barrels to 425 million barrels in the week ending September 5, with various refined oil inventories also showing different changes [3] - **Industrial Policy (Medium - long term)**: OPEC+ agreed to increase production again in October 2025, with a daily increase of about 137,000 barrels. Some OPEC+ countries need to compensate for excess production [3] - **Geopolitics (Short term)**: The conflict between Ukraine and Russia continues to escalate, and Trump's statement about possible new tariffs on Asian and Indian buyers of Russian oil add geopolitical premium to oil prices [3] - **Macro - finance (Short term)**: The market expects the Fed to cut interest rates in September, with the probability of a 50 - basis - point cut rising from 8% to 11.9% and a 25 - basis - point cut at 88.1% [3] - **Investment View**: Oil prices will show an oscillating performance [3] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Wait and see; Arbitrage: Wait and see [3] 3.2 Futures Market Data - **Market Review**: Short - term geopolitical disturbances led to a halt in the decline and an oscillating trend of international oil prices. As of September 12, WTI crude oil rose by $0.63 per barrel (+1.02%), Brent crude oil rose by $1.21 per barrel (+1.84%), and SC crude oil fell by 6.7 yuan per barrel (-1.39%) [8] - **Month - spread & Internal - external Spread**: Month - spreads weakened, and internal - external spreads declined [11] - **Forward Curve**: The near - month curve declined and weakened [24] - **Crack Spread**: Gasoline and diesel crack spreads declined [27] 3.3 Crude Oil Supply - demand Fundamental Data - **Production**: In August, OPEC production increased, non - OPEC countries' production also increased, and the US weekly crude oil production was 13.495 million barrels per day. However, the US production showed a decline in exports and an increase in domestic production [45][55][79] - **Inventory**: US commercial inventories increased by 393,900 barrels, Cushing inventories decreased by 365,000 barrels, Northwest European crude oil inventories rose, and Singapore fuel oil inventories declined [80][90] - **Demand**: In the US, gasoline implied demand decreased significantly, and refinery operating rates fluctuated slightly. In China, refinery capacity utilization rebounded slightly [107][116] - **Macro - finance**: US Treasury yields declined, and the expectation of a Fed rate cut in September strengthened [138] - **CFTC Position**: The net short position of speculative traders in WTI crude oil decreased [147]

2012 31 2025-9-15 分析师：方富强 F3043701 Z0015300 分析师：谢灵 F3040017 Z0015788 助理分析师：陈宇森 F03123927 助理分析师：林静妍 F03131200 ITG国贸期货 目录 01 有色及新能源价格监测 02 工业硅（SI） 多晶硅（PS） 03 碳酸锂 (LC) 01 PART ONE 有色及新能源价格监测 | | | | | | | | 有色金属收盘价格监控 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品 种 | 单 位 | 现 值 | 日涨跌幅 | 周涨跌幅 | | 年涨跌幅 | 品 种 | 单 位 | 现 值 | 日涨跌幅 | 周涨跌幅 | 年涨跌幅 | | 美元指数 | 1973年3月 =100 | 97 6178 . | 0 09% . | -0 . | 12% | -10 01% . | 工业硅 | 元/吨 | 8745 | 0 06% . | -0 85% . | -20 39% . | ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【有色金属周报】 美联储议息会议临近，有色板块能否维持强势？ 国贸期货 有色金属研究中心 2025-9-15 分析师：方富强 从业资格证号：F3043701 投资咨询证号：Z0015300 分析师：谢灵 从业资格证号：F3040017 投资咨询证号：Z0015788 助理分析师：陈宇森 从业资格证号：F03123927 助理分析师：林静妍 从业资格证号：F03131200 03 锌（ZN） 04 镍（NI） 不锈钢（SS) 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 目录 01 有色金属价格监测 02 铜（CU） 01 PART ONE 有色金属价格监测 有色金属价格监测 有色金属收盘价格监控 | 有色金属价格监测 | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | | 有色金属收盘价格监控 | | | | | | | 品 种 | 单 位 ...

Group 1: Investment Rating - The investment rating for both the glass and soda ash industries is bearish [3][4] Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of the glass and soda ash industries are poor, and prices are under pressure. The glass industry has increasing supply, potential demand improvement in the peak season, and high inventory. The soda ash industry has high supply, neutral demand, and weakened cost support [3][4] - The overall market sentiment is not good due to the "anti - involution" logic and weak reality. The trading strategy recommends a cash - and - carry arbitrage [3][4] Group 3: Summary by Directory Part One: Main Viewpoints and Strategy Overview - **Glass**: Supply is slightly increasing with a daily output of 160200 tons (+0.38% compared to the 4th), an industry start - up rate of 76.01% (unchanged), and a capacity utilization rate of 80.08% (+0.3 percentage points). Demand may improve marginally in the peak season. Inventory decreased by 2.33% week - on - week to 61.583 million heavy cases. The investment view is bearish, and the trading strategy suggests a cash - and - carry arbitrage [3] - **Soda Ash**: Supply is at a high level with a weekly output of 761100 tons (+1.24% week - on - week). Demand is neutral with stable short - term direct demand but poor terminal demand. Inventory decreased by 1.35% week - on - week to 1.7975 million tons. The investment view is bearish, and the trading strategy recommends a cash - and - carry arbitrage [4] Part Two: Futures and Spot Market Review - **Glass**: The price fluctuated this week. The main contract closed at 1180 (-9), and the Shahe spot price was 1072 (+16). The basis fluctuated, and the 01 - 05 spread decreased [6][20] - **Soda Ash**: The price fluctuated this week. The main contract closed at 1290 (+25), and the Shahe spot price was 1197 (+5). The basis and the 01 - 05 spread both fluctuated [11][20] Part Three: Supply - Demand Fundamental Data - **Glass Supply**: Production increased steadily. The daily output was 160200 tons (+0.38% compared to the 4th). The start - up rate was 76.01% (unchanged), and the capacity utilization rate was 80.08% (+0.3 percentage points). The production profit fluctuated [23] - **Glass Demand**: The downstream deep - processing orders were weak, and the real - estate completion data was poor. However, inventory decreased by 2.33% week - on - week to 61.583 million heavy cases [28] - **Soda Ash Supply**: Production reached a high level again, with a weekly output of 761100 tons (+1.24% week - on - week). The alkali plant profit fluctuated [31] - **Soda Ash Demand**: Demand was neutral. Short - term direct demand was stable, but terminal demand was poor. Inventory decreased by 1.35% week - on - week to 1.7975 million tons [32]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view is "oscillation", and it is expected to be mainly bullish, with no obvious driving factors [4]. 2. Core View of the Report - The supply side is bearish as crude oil prices fall, domestic PTA device supply gradually returns, and the PTA basis weakens [4]. - The demand side is bullish as the downstream load of polyester maintains around 91%, and the inventory performance of polyester factories is optimistic [4]. - The inventory situation is neutral as the port inventory of PTA decreased by 10,000 tons this week and continues to decline [4]. - The basis is bearish as the PTA basis weakens slightly, and the PTA profit remains at a low level [4]. - The profit is bearish as the spread between PX and naphtha is at $230, and the PTA processing fee remains at around 200 yuan and has shrunk [4]. - The valuation is neutral as the PTA price is at a moderately low level, and the supply of aromatics has increased [4]. - The macro - policy is neutral as the Ministry of Finance continues to implement a package of debt - resolution measures [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Part One: Main Views and Strategy Overview - Supply: Bearish. Crude oil price decline, increased supply from Huizhou PTA in China, and weakening PTA basis [4]. - Demand: Bullish. Polyester downstream load around 91%, optimistic inventory, and increased load in bottle - chip varieties [4]. - Inventory: Neutral. PTA port inventory decreased by 10,000 tons this week [4]. - Basis: Bearish. Slightly weakened PTA basis and low profit [4]. - Profit: Bearish. PX - naphtha spread at $230, and PTA processing fee around 200 yuan with contraction [4]. - Valuation: Neutral. PTA price at a moderately low level, increased aromatics supply [4]. - Macro - policy: Neutral. Ministry of Finance's debt - resolution measures [4]. - Investment view: Oscillation, expected to be mainly bullish [4]. - Trading strategy: Unilateral - wait and see, pay attention to geopolitical risks [4]. 3.2 Part Two: Oil Product Fundamental Overview - Gasoline: Peak - season destocking but approaching off - season. Refinery operating rate decreased from 94.6% to 94.3%, gasoline inventory decreased by 3.8 million barrels, and demand is expected to enter the off - season [25]. 3.3 Part Three: Aromatics Fundamental Overview - Some devices plan maintenance, and Yulong Petrochemical's supply increases [33]. - Asian naphtha price is firm, gasoline cracking spread rebounds slightly, and the spread between regular gasoline and naphtha cracking widens [44]. - The profit of selective disproportionation of aromatics decreases slightly [49]. - MX cross - regional arbitrage is marginally feasible, and the spread between the US and South Korea is around $187 [54]. - Asian MX spot price weakens, and the spread between MX and naphtha narrows to $88/ton [61]. - The gasoline reforming and aromatics reforming are both acceptable, but PTA performs weakly due to falling crude oil prices and weakening basis [72]. 3.4 Part Four: Polyester Fundamental Overview - Ethylene glycol: Supply returns, and the price is weak. The port inventory in East China is 459,000 tons and is expected to continue to decline [86]. - Gasoline: The load of major refineries increases [88]. - Polyester: The load maintains at a high level, and the production increases, waiting for downstream feedback [95][107].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the market declined in the first four trading days and rebounded slightly on Friday. The pressure for bond futures adjustment mainly came from concerns about fund redemption fees and the cancellation of tax exemptions for funds. Funds became the main force in selling off. There were rumors of large - scale redemptions by major banks and the suspension of the release of redemption and subscription details. However, after the redemption ended, the funds of bond funds returning to proprietary trading would still be a source of allocation for the bond market. In the first half of the week, the market adjusted rapidly, with extremely fragile sentiment and high pressure to sell off in advance, and insufficient market support, leading the yields of 10 - year and 30 - year bonds to rise above 1.8% and 2% respectively. On Thursday and Friday, market sentiment improved marginally due to incremental news, including rumors of the Ministry of Finance's dissatisfaction with the rising yields and communication with the central bank, discussions among major banks, the Financial Department of the Ministry of Finance, and the central bank about restarting treasury bond purchases, a 600 - billion - yuan outright repurchase operation by the central bank, and weaker - than - expected August financial data [4]. - Looking forward, the recent decline in bond futures provides a good entry opportunity. The current stabilization of the bond market is supported by three factors: positive signals from monetary policy, a stabilizing capital market with reduced capital rotation between the stock and bond markets, and the attractiveness of bond yields after the previous adjustment. In the medium - to - long - term, insufficient effective demand is the main challenge for the domestic economy. With the marginal decline of the economic driving effect of land finance and debt, and the potential impact of trade frictions in the Trump 2.0 era, deflation is likely to continue. Therefore, the fundamentals are still favorable for bond futures. The coordinated efforts of monetary and fiscal policies, with monetary policy taking the lead, are expected to sustain the bullish bond market [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs PART ONE: Main Viewpoints - Market performance: The market declined in the first four trading days of this week and rebounded slightly on Friday. The adjustment pressure of bond futures was mainly due to concerns about funds, and the yields of 10 - year and 30 - year bonds rose. On Thursday and Friday, market sentiment improved due to multiple incremental news [4]. - Market data: The report provides the closing prices, weekly price changes, weekly trading volumes, and weekly open interest changes of various bond futures contracts such as TL2509.CFE, TL2512.CFE, etc. [5] - Outlook: The recent decline in bond futures offers a good entry opportunity. The bond market is currently supported by three factors, and in the medium - to - long - term, the fundamentals remain favorable for bond futures [8] PART TWO: Liquidity Tracking - The report presents multiple graphs related to liquidity, including those on open - market operations (money supply, money withdrawal, and net money supply), medium - term lending facilities (amount and price), reverse repurchase rates, and various interest rates such as deposit - based pledged repurchase rates, SHIBOR, and upper - exchange pledged repurchase rates [11][12][14] PART THREE: Treasury Bond Futures Arbitrage Indicator Tracking - The report provides data on various arbitrage indicators of treasury bond futures, including basis, net basis, implied repo rate (IRR), and implied interest rate for 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures [44][52][59][65]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report No clear core view is presented in the provided content. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs PART ONE: Main Views and Strategy Overview - Summarized PVC main weekly data including price, production, inventory, and profit information [4] PART TWO: Review of Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Showed PVC price ranges and price trends of futures contracts and basis [6][7] PART THREE: PVC Supply and Demand Fundamental Data - Presented various historical data related to PVC supply and demand such as production, price, and inventory over multiple years [16][18][20]

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - Last week, gold and silver continued their strong upward trend, with silver showing a more robust performance. The weakening employment and consumer confidence in the US, along with limited inflation recovery, strengthened the expectation of a Fed rate cut in September, boosting precious metal prices. Silver also showed a significant catch - up effect. [2] - In the short term, with the almost certain rate cut in September, precious metal prices are expected to remain high and strong. However, the recent rise may have fully priced in the September rate - cut expectation, so there is a risk of "buy the rumor, sell the fact," and short - term market volatility may intensify. [4] - In the long term, gold prices still have upward potential due to factors such as the high probability of a Fed rate cut in September, global geopolitical instability, intensifying anti - globalization, and the weakening of the US dollar's credit, which support central banks' net gold purchases. [4] Summary by Directory PART ONE: Market and Fundamental Indicator Tracking - **Price Movements**: Last week, London spot gold broke through the $3650/ounce mark, and Shanghai gold futures' main contract exceeded 840 yuan/kg, both hitting new highs. London silver broke through the $42/ounce mark, and Shanghai silver futures' main contract exceeded 10,000 yuan/kg, reaching a high since the end of December 2012. [2] - **Data Metrics**: For gold, London spot gold rose 1.58% week - on - week, and Shanghai gold's main contract rose 2.28%. For silver, London spot silver rose 2.91% week - on - week, and Shanghai silver's main contract rose 2.27%. There were also changes in various indicators such as basis, spread, ETF holdings, and inventory. [3] PART TWO: Main Macroeconomic Indicator Tracking - **US Economic Indicators** - **GDP**: The US second - degree GDP growth was strong, but consumer confidence declined again. Manufacturing and service PMI both dropped, and retail sales data showed mixed trends. [55][56] - **Employment**: The employment market cooled significantly. The August non - farm payrolls were weak, the unemployment rate rose, job vacancies decreased, labor participation increased, and wage growth slowed down both month - on - month and year - on - year. [62][66] - **Inflation**: There was a rising pressure on inflation. Core commodity inflation increased, while core service inflation decreased. Consumer inflation expectations also rose significantly. [68][71] - **European Economic Indicators** - **Eurozone**: The Eurozone's manufacturing PMI recovered, while the service PMI declined. GDP showed a bottom - up trend, and inflation data in the Eurozone and the UK were also presented. [75][77] - **Central Bank Gold Purchases** - China's central bank has been increasing its gold reserves for 10 consecutive months. As of the end of August, China's gold reserves were about 2302.279 tons, with a month - on - month increase of about 1.87 tons. [85] - Global central banks maintained net gold purchases in 2025. In the first half of 2025, they net - purchased 415.1 tons of gold, a year - on - year decrease of about 20.4%. [85]