1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the market declined in the first four trading days and rebounded slightly on Friday. The pressure for bond futures adjustment mainly came from concerns about fund redemption fees and the cancellation of tax exemptions for funds. Funds became the main force in selling off. There were rumors of large - scale redemptions by major banks and the suspension of the release of redemption and subscription details. However, after the redemption ended, the funds of bond funds returning to proprietary trading would still be a source of allocation for the bond market. In the first half of the week, the market adjusted rapidly, with extremely fragile sentiment and high pressure to sell off in advance, and insufficient market support, leading the yields of 10 - year and 30 - year bonds to rise above 1.8% and 2% respectively. On Thursday and Friday, market sentiment improved marginally due to incremental news, including rumors of the Ministry of Finance's dissatisfaction with the rising yields and communication with the central bank, discussions among major banks, the Financial Department of the Ministry of Finance, and the central bank about restarting treasury bond purchases, a 600 - billion - yuan outright repurchase operation by the central bank, and weaker - than - expected August financial data [4]. - Looking forward, the recent decline in bond futures provides a good entry opportunity. The current stabilization of the bond market is supported by three factors: positive signals from monetary policy, a stabilizing capital market with reduced capital rotation between the stock and bond markets, and the attractiveness of bond yields after the previous adjustment. In the medium - to - long - term, insufficient effective demand is the main challenge for the domestic economy. With the marginal decline of the economic driving effect of land finance and debt, and the potential impact of trade frictions in the Trump 2.0 era, deflation is likely to continue. Therefore, the fundamentals are still favorable for bond futures. The coordinated efforts of monetary and fiscal policies, with monetary policy taking the lead, are expected to sustain the bullish bond market [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs PART ONE: Main Viewpoints - Market performance: The market declined in the first four trading days of this week and rebounded slightly on Friday. The adjustment pressure of bond futures was mainly due to concerns about funds, and the yields of 10 - year and 30 - year bonds rose. On Thursday and Friday, market sentiment improved due to multiple incremental news [4]. - Market data: The report provides the closing prices, weekly price changes, weekly trading volumes, and weekly open interest changes of various bond futures contracts such as TL2509.CFE, TL2512.CFE, etc. [5] - Outlook: The recent decline in bond futures offers a good entry opportunity. The bond market is currently supported by three factors, and in the medium - to - long - term, the fundamentals remain favorable for bond futures [8] PART TWO: Liquidity Tracking - The report presents multiple graphs related to liquidity, including those on open - market operations (money supply, money withdrawal, and net money supply), medium - term lending facilities (amount and price), reverse repurchase rates, and various interest rates such as deposit - based pledged repurchase rates, SHIBOR, and upper - exchange pledged repurchase rates [11][12][14] PART THREE: Treasury Bond Futures Arbitrage Indicator Tracking - The report provides data on various arbitrage indicators of treasury bond futures, including basis, net basis, implied repo rate (IRR), and implied interest rate for 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures [44][52][59][65]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report No clear core view is presented in the provided content. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs PART ONE: Main Views and Strategy Overview - Summarized PVC main weekly data including price, production, inventory, and profit information [4] PART TWO: Review of Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Showed PVC price ranges and price trends of futures contracts and basis [6][7] PART THREE: PVC Supply and Demand Fundamental Data - Presented various historical data related to PVC supply and demand such as production, price, and inventory over multiple years [16][18][20]

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - Last week, gold and silver continued their strong upward trend, with silver showing a more robust performance. The weakening employment and consumer confidence in the US, along with limited inflation recovery, strengthened the expectation of a Fed rate cut in September, boosting precious metal prices. Silver also showed a significant catch - up effect. [2] - In the short term, with the almost certain rate cut in September, precious metal prices are expected to remain high and strong. However, the recent rise may have fully priced in the September rate - cut expectation, so there is a risk of "buy the rumor, sell the fact," and short - term market volatility may intensify. [4] - In the long term, gold prices still have upward potential due to factors such as the high probability of a Fed rate cut in September, global geopolitical instability, intensifying anti - globalization, and the weakening of the US dollar's credit, which support central banks' net gold purchases. [4] Summary by Directory PART ONE: Market and Fundamental Indicator Tracking - **Price Movements**: Last week, London spot gold broke through the $3650/ounce mark, and Shanghai gold futures' main contract exceeded 840 yuan/kg, both hitting new highs. London silver broke through the $42/ounce mark, and Shanghai silver futures' main contract exceeded 10,000 yuan/kg, reaching a high since the end of December 2012. [2] - **Data Metrics**: For gold, London spot gold rose 1.58% week - on - week, and Shanghai gold's main contract rose 2.28%. For silver, London spot silver rose 2.91% week - on - week, and Shanghai silver's main contract rose 2.27%. There were also changes in various indicators such as basis, spread, ETF holdings, and inventory. [3] PART TWO: Main Macroeconomic Indicator Tracking - **US Economic Indicators** - **GDP**: The US second - degree GDP growth was strong, but consumer confidence declined again. Manufacturing and service PMI both dropped, and retail sales data showed mixed trends. [55][56] - **Employment**: The employment market cooled significantly. The August non - farm payrolls were weak, the unemployment rate rose, job vacancies decreased, labor participation increased, and wage growth slowed down both month - on - month and year - on - year. [62][66] - **Inflation**: There was a rising pressure on inflation. Core commodity inflation increased, while core service inflation decreased. Consumer inflation expectations also rose significantly. [68][71] - **European Economic Indicators** - **Eurozone**: The Eurozone's manufacturing PMI recovered, while the service PMI declined. GDP showed a bottom - up trend, and inflation data in the Eurozone and the UK were also presented. [75][77] - **Central Bank Gold Purchases** - China's central bank has been increasing its gold reserves for 10 consecutive months. As of the end of August, China's gold reserves were about 2302.279 tons, with a month - on - month increase of about 1.87 tons. [85] - Global central banks maintained net gold purchases in 2025. In the first half of 2025, they net - purchased 415.1 tons of gold, a year - on - year decrease of about 20.4%. [85]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the methanol industry is "oscillating" [2][3] 2. Core View of the Report - Recently, the macro - environment of the market has improved, and the main methanol futures have shown a relatively strong trend. The news of the malfunction and shutdown of the Iranian device has increased market expectations, driving up the coastal basis and improving the overall trading atmosphere. The inland market has also trended strongly. Some olefin plants in Inner Mongolia and Ningxia have continued to purchase externally, increasing the demand of the main downstream. There is also an expectation of pre - National Day restocking among downstream enterprises, and the traditional downstream has actively followed up. Methanol enterprises have smoothly sold their products, and there is a strong willingness to raise prices. However, due to the poor overall profit of the traditional downstream, the cost pressure has restricted the increase in methanol prices [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Supply - The domestic methanol supply this week shows a situation of "decreased domestic production, reduced imports, but increased inventory at ports". The total production capacity utilization rate is 84.58%, and the weekly output is 1.9193 million tons, both showing a month - on - month decline because the output of the production capacity involved in maintenance and production reduction is more than the loss of the production capacity involved in recovery. The import volume has shrunk, with this week's import volume at 432,500 tons, a decrease of 3.87%. It is expected that the arrival volume next week will be 348,500 - 350,000 tons, a decrease of 23.24%. The 1.65 million - ton/year methanol plant of Bushehr in Iran has malfunctioned and shut down [2] Demand - This week, the domestic methanol demand shows a situation of "pressure on the main downstream and differentiation in the traditional downstream", and the overall demand lacks resilience. The average operating load of coal (methanol) to olefin plants is 77.42%, a month - on - month decrease of 4.95%. Among them, the load of MTO plants that purchase methanol externally is 69.06%, a significant month - on - month decrease of 9.75%. The shutdown of some MTO plants in the northwest is the main drag. The traditional downstream is differentiated: the formaldehyde industry is driven by the increase in the device load in North and Central China; the acetic acid industry has a slight increase in operation due to the restart of Anhui Huayi's device and the recovery of Nanjing Celanese's load; downstream industries such as dimethyl ether and MTBE are weak [2] Inventory - This week, the methanol inventory shows a situation of "accelerated inventory accumulation at ports and a slight increase inland", and the supply - demand mismatch has increased market pressure. The increase in inventory is mainly due to the concentrated arrival at the supply end and weak demand. At ports, the arrival of foreign vessels has remained at a high level, Iranian goods have been unloaded intensively, and the previously delayed arrival of goods has been concentrated in storage. The supply at ports has been continuously abundant. However, the demand - side support is insufficient, the overall load of MTO plants is at a relatively low level, and enterprises such as Xingxing have shut down for maintenance, resulting in a slowdown in the port pick - up speed and weak inventory digestion. Overall, the port inventory is close to the historical high. Inland, the inventory pressure in the inland market is relatively mild, with a month - on - month slight increase of 2.31%, mainly because the operation in the main production areas in the northwest has slightly declined, and the improvement of short - distance transportation in some areas has alleviated the inventory accumulation rhythm. The malfunction and shutdown of the 1.65 million - ton/year methanol plant of Bushehr in Iran have a certain positive impact on the port inventory accumulation [2] Profit - This week, the overall methanol profit has improved, with different processes showing differentiation. The theoretical profit of coal - to - methanol in Inner Mongolia is 310 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 13.97%; the full - cost profit of coal - to - methanol in the northwest is 126.74 yuan/ton (month - on - month + 55.55%); the profit of coke oven gas - to - methanol in Hebei is 303 yuan/ton (month - on - month + 3.41%); the loss of natural gas - to - methanol in the southwest has narrowed by 48 yuan/ton. Due to the increase in methanol prices, the profits of industries such as MTO in the downstream are mostly under pressure [2] Macro and Geopolitical Factors - On September 10, sources said that when Trump talked with EU officials, he clearly proposed, as part of the pressure on Russia, to urge the EU to impose a "secondary tariff" of up to 100% on China and encourage the EU to take similar measures against India. The Houthi armed forces confirmed a ballistic missile attack on Israel [2] Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Temporarily wait and see; Arbitrage: MA1 - 5 positive spread. Areas of risk concern include downstream demand, olefin external procurement, spring maintenance, and geopolitics [2]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Bullish**: Gold, Copper, Aluminum, Nickel, Stainless Steel, Tin, Palm Oil (medium to long term), Other Oils (fourth quarter) [1] - **Bearish**: Anti -内卷 products, Black metals, Coke, Coking coal, Benzene ethylene [1] - **Sideways**: Treasury bonds, Silver, Alumina, Zinc, Industrial silicon, Carbonate lithium, Rebar, Hot - rolled coil, Iron ore, Pulp, Logs, Live pigs, Shanghai rubber, BR rubber, PTA, Ethylene glycol, Short - fiber, Big - three products, PE, PVC, LPG [1] Core Views - Short - term stock index futures discount widening and liquidity drive may offer long - position opportunities during short - term index adjustments; asset shortage and weak economy are favorable for bond futures, but short - term central bank interest - rate risk warnings suppress upward movement [1] - The approaching Fed rate cut in September provides support for gold prices, and the price may remain strong at high levels in the short term [1] - U.S. inflation data in line with expectations and the approaching consumption peak season may lead to stronger prices for copper, aluminum, and other non - ferrous metals, but factors such as inventory accumulation may put pressure on some metal prices [1] - For agricultural products, although short - term factors may cause price fluctuations, the long - term bullish logic for some oils remains unchanged [1] - In the energy and chemical sector, factors such as production resumption, production increase plans, and changes in supply and demand affect product prices, with some products facing downward pressure and others showing short - term adjustment risks [1] Summary by Industry Macro - finance - **Treasury bonds**: Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable, but short - term central bank interest - rate risk warnings suppress upward movement [1] Non - ferrous metals - **Gold**: The approaching Fed rate cut in September provides support, and it may remain strong at high levels in the short term [1] - **Copper**: U.S. inflation data in line with expectations and the approaching consumption peak season may lead to stronger prices [1] - **Aluminum**: Fed rate - cut expectations and the approaching consumption peak season are favorable, but high inventory may put pressure on prices [1] - **Alumina**: Output and inventory are increasing, but the price is close to the cost line, with limited downward space [1] - **Zinc**: Macro sentiment improvement supports the non - ferrous sector, but continuous inventory accumulation pressures zinc prices, with a narrow rebound [1] - **Nickel**: Short - term supply concerns and approaching stainless - steel peak season may lead to a short - term strong - side shock, but long - term primary nickel surplus pressure remains [1] - **Stainless steel**: Raw material price increases and inventory reduction, with short - term strong - side shock operation [1] - **Tin**: With improved macro sentiment and expected demand improvement in the peak season, the price is expected to strengthen in shock [1] Black metals - **Rebar, Hot - rolled coil, Iron ore**: Valuation returns to neutral, with unclear industrial drivers and warm macro drivers, showing a sideways trend [1] - **Anti -内卷 products**: Short - term fundamentals are not optimistic, with supply recovery, possible demand weakening, and high inventory [1] - **Coke, Coking coal**: Supply - demand imbalance, with supply surplus pressure and price under pressure [1] Agricultural products - **Palm oil**: MPOB report shows slight inventory accumulation, with short - term callback risk and long - term bullish logic [1] - **Other oils**: USDA report is neutral to bearish, but the fourth - quarter bullish logic remains unchanged [1] - **Cotton**: New - crop cotton has a high - yield expectation, with short - term supply tightness and acquisition game as the focus [1] - **Sugar**: New - sugar pre - sale price is lower, with limited short - term downward space and expected sideways - weak trend [1] - **Soybeans**: 9 - month USDA report is bearish, but the U.S. market is strong, with limited downward space for the domestic market and short - term sideways movement [1] Energy and chemicals - **Crude oil, Fuel oil**: Geopolitical tensions, OPEC+ production increase plan, and Fed rate - cut expectations coexist, with a loose fundamental situation [1] - **Shanghai rubber**: Raw material cost support is strong, but inventory reduction is slow and short - term market sentiment is weak [1] - **BR rubber**: Attention should be paid to inventory reduction progress and autumn device maintenance [1] - **PTA**: Domestic production recovers, the basis declines rapidly, and downstream polyester starts to operate at a high load [1] - **Ethylene glycol**: The basis strengthens, but new device production and increased hedging pressure the market [1] - **Short - fiber**: Factory devices return, and market delivery willingness weakens [1] - **Benzene ethylene**: Supply increases significantly, and domestic import pressure rises [1] - **Big - three products**: Limited upward space due to weak domestic demand, with cost - end support [1] - **PE, PVC**: Sideways - weak trend due to factors such as limited maintenance support and supply pressure [1] - **LPG**: Crude oil production increase and other factors suppress upward movement [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The price of BR rubber shows wide - range volatile movement. The impact of device maintenance on supply is limited, while demand has mixed factors, and inventory has a negative influence. Fundamentals are relatively strong, but trading volume has weakened. In the short - term, the market is expected to remain in a wide - range volatile state [4]. - The trading strategy suggests a unilateral upward trend in volatility. For arbitrage, it is advisable to pay attention to going long on BR and shorting NR/RU. Key factors to watch include downstream demand, cost changes, device maintenance, and geopolitical situations [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - The prices of high - cis butadiene rubber of Sinopec and PetroChina's major sales companies have been reduced by 200 yuan/ton. As of September 11, 2025, the mainstream ex - factory price of high - cis butadiene rubber in China is between 11,900 - 12,000 yuan/ton [7]. - The suspension of several butadiene rubber devices has led to a slight decline in domestic production and capacity utilization. However, the sufficient supply of most brands limits the price increase. Weakening demand for raw material butadiene and price softening, along with downstream purchasing behavior, have put pressure on prices [7]. 3.2 Refinery Device Maintenance Plan - In 2025, many refineries of Sinopec, PetroChina, and CNOOC have device maintenance plans, involving various regions and different types of devices, with a wide range of maintenance capacities and time spans [12]. 3.3 Butadiene and Butadiene Rubber Device Maintenance Data Statistics - Many butadiene production enterprises have experienced device shutdowns, affecting production capacity. For butadiene rubber, some devices are in normal operation, while others are under maintenance, and some have future shutdown plans [13]. 3.4 Butadiene and Butadiene Rubber Market Data - **Supply**: Butadiene production and high - cis butadiene rubber production and capacity utilization have declined due to device shutdowns [4]. - **Demand**: In the semi - steel tire market, the replacement market is stable, with increased production of winter tires and some shortages in all - season tires. In the all - steel tire market, the replacement market price is stable, with a slight improvement in trading volume [4]. - **Inventory**: Butadiene port inventory has decreased, while butadiene rubber enterprise and trader inventories have increased [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of butadiene rubber in North China is - 165 yuan/ton, in East China is - 65 yuan/ton, and in South China is 35 yuan/ton [4]. - **Spread/Price Ratio**: The RU - BR spread is 4,205 yuan/ton (2.19%), the NR - BR spread is 940 yuan/ton (6.82%), and the BR - SC price ratio is - 0.36% [4]. - **Profit**: The production profit of butadiene through oxidative dehydrogenation is 36 yuan/ton, and through C4 extraction is 1,997.21 yuan/ton. The production profit of butadiene rubber is - 128 yuan/ton, with a gross profit margin of - 1.06% [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view on LPG is "oscillating", indicating a neutral stance in the short - term [4]. Report's Core View - The LPG market shows a situation of "weak oil and strong gas". PG prices are firm due to freight and capital factors. The supply - demand contradiction of propylene in the intermediate link is alleviated, and the terminal PP demand is saturated, resulting in continuous and substantial losses in PDH profits. In the short - term, PG prices are expected to oscillate strongly, with a relatively low current valuation. Attention should be paid to the flow of warehouse receipts and geopolitical risks [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review - The main contract of LPG futures fluctuated and rose, with a range of 4360 - 4470 yuan/ton. The spot price trend was weaker than the futures, and the basis weakened. International crude oil prices first fell and then rose, and the trend of PG futures was basically the same as that of crude oil. International LPG prices increased, but domestic spot prices showed both increases and decreases. Chemical demand declined significantly, and the profits of multiple chemical plants continued to be in the red. The internal valuation of futures prices was neutral. The weekly average basis was 37 yuan/ton in East China, 120 yuan/ton in South China, and 30 yuan/ton in Shandong, with the lowest deliverable standard being in Shandong [7]. 2. Influencing Factors Supply - Last week, the total commercial volume of LPG was about 53.74 million tons, including 20.52 million tons of civil gas, 21.04 million tons of industrial gas, and 17.89 million tons of ether - after carbon four. The arrival volume of LPG last week was 65 million tons. With the resumption of some devices in East China and Shandong last week, the supply increased. A refinery in Shandong plans to conduct maintenance this week, and it is expected that the domestic commercial volume may decline [4]. Demand - The combustion demand is gradually coming to an end, and the traditional peak - season logic is weakening, but the price of civil gas remains firm in the short - term. In the carbon - four deep - processing sector, affected by new - energy substitution, gasoline demand has weakened. The profit of MTBE is inverted, but the operating rate is at a high level. The profit of alkylated gasoline has changed from profit to loss, and the loss of isobutane dehydrogenation profit is relatively deep. The ether - after market may decline and stabilize. In the carbon - three deep - processing sector, the utilization rate of PDH production capacity is relatively stable, and the operating rate remains at a medium - to - high level. The price of propylene in the intermediate link has declined, and the terminal PP demand is saturated. There are continuous losses from the PDH device to the propylene and PP links [4]. Inventory - Last week, the factory inventory of LPG was 17.91 million tons, and the port inventory was 318.65 million tons. The domestic LPG inventory continued to increase. Although the trading and transportation capacity resumed after the end of large - scale domestic events, the inventory pressure in some northern regions was gradually relieved. However, in other regions, due to increased supply and weak demand, the shipment volume decreased to varying degrees, and the refinery storage capacity utilization rate continued to rise. At the ports, the number of incoming ships decreased slightly, but the unloading volume was more than the arrival volume, with little change compared to last week. Coupled with the downward trend of overall chemical demand, the port inventory increased slightly [4]. Basis and Position - The weekly average basis was a certain value in East China, South China, and Shandong. The total number of LPG warehouse receipts increased by 6, and the lowest deliverable area was Shandong [4]. Chemical Downstream - The operating rates of PDH, MTBE, and alkylation were 70.49%, 55.81%, and 46.17% respectively. The profits of PDH to propylene, MTBE isomerization, and alkylation in Shandong were - 52 yuan/ton, - 291 yuan/ton, and - 180.50 yuan/ton respectively [4]. Valuation - The PG - SC ratio was a certain value, and the PG continuous - one to continuous - two month spread was a certain value. With the continuous increase in crude oil production, the cost segment was dragged down, and the PG - SC cracking spread continued to strengthen [4]. Other Factors - In October, OPEC+ increased production by 137,000 barrels again, starting the second round of the production - increase cycle to regain market share. The US non - farm payrolls data in August was lower than market expectations, with an increase in the number of unemployed, a month - on - month decline in PPI and CPI, and an enhanced expectation of economic slowdown and interest - rate cuts. The geopolitical situations in Russia - Ukraine, US - Venezuela, and the Middle East still tend to be tense, and the war may further escalate [4]. 3. Trading Strategy - For unilateral trading, it is recommended to wait and see temporarily. For arbitrage, the strategies are to go long on PP2601 and short on PL2601, go long on PP2601 and short on PG2601, and go long on PG2510 and short on SC2510 [4].

Group 1: Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.65% to 3875.31 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 3.36%, the ChiNext Index rose 5.15%, the Northbound 50 Index rose 1.59%, the STAR 50 Index rose 5.32%, the Wind All - A Index rose 2.26%, the Wind + 500 Index rose 2.5%, and the CSI + 500 Index rose 2.41%. A - shares had a turnover of 2.46 trillion yuan throughout the day, compared with 2 trillion yuan the previous day [4] - The Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Index had a closing price of 2983.0829, a trading volume of 68.33 billion, a daily increase of 1.48%, and a trading value of 1884.95 billion yuan. The CSI 300 Index had a closing price of 4548.0345, a trading volume of 253.26 billion, a daily increase of 2.31%, and a trading value of 6931.57 billion yuan. The CSI 1000 Index had a closing price of 4862.37, a trading volume of 7399.8854 billion, a daily increase of 2.35%, and a trading value of 293.98 billion yuan [3] Group 2: CFFEX Stock Index Options Trading Situation - For the SSE 50 Index options, the call option trading volume was 6.26 million contracts, the put option trading volume was 4.31 million contracts, the call option open interest was 9.32 million contracts, the put option open interest was 5.60 million contracts, the trading volume PCR was 0.67, and the open interest PCR was 0.45 [3] - For the CSI 300 Index options, the call option trading volume was 22.57 million contracts, the put option trading volume was 21.88 million contracts, the call option open interest was 13.80 million contracts, the put option open interest was 8.08 million contracts, the trading volume PCR was 0.59, and the open interest PCR was 0.85 [3] - For the CSI 1000 Index options, the call option trading volume was 24.13 million contracts, the put option trading volume was 0.78 million contracts, the call option open interest was 34.88 million contracts, the put option open interest was 16.74 million contracts, the trading volume PCR was 1.08, and the open interest PCR was 1.08 [3] Group 3: Volatility Analysis - The report presents historical volatility cones and volatility smile curves for the SSE 50 Index, CSI 300 Index, and CSI 1000 Index, including 5 - day, 20 - day, 40 - day, 60 - day, and 120 - day historical volatilities, as well as minimum, maximum, 10%, 30%, 60%, and 90% quantile values [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The shipping market shows a downward trend. The spot freight rates are still falling, and there is a possibility of further price drops in September. The shift of some US - bound ships to European routes increases supply and further pressures freight rates. The recommended strategy is to go short on the October contract and roll the 10 - 12 reverse spread [6][7][8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content Shipping Derivatives Data - **Freight Rate Index**: The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) decreased by 0.04% to 1444, and the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) decreased by 0.62% to 1149. The SCFI - US West increased by 13.83% to 2189, SCFIS - US West decreased by 3.26% to 980, SCFI - US East increased by 7.22% to 3073, and SCFI - Northwest Europe decreased by 11.21% to 1315. SCFIS - Northwest Europe decreased by 11.68% to 1566, and SCFI - Mediterranean decreased by 8.11% to 1971 [4]. - **Contracts**: All shipping contracts showed a downward trend. For example, EC2506 decreased by 0.92% to 1430.6, EC2608 decreased by 0.31% to 1595.0 [4]. - **Positions**: The positions of some contracts increased. For example, EC2606 positions increased by 6 to 963, and EC2410 positions increased by 2187 to 49507 [4]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 10 - 12 monthly spread increased by 1.3 to - 405.3, the 12 - 2 monthly spread decreased by 38.3 to 111.7, and the 12 - 4 monthly spread decreased by 60.9 to 367.1 [4]. Market News - **Trade Shift**: Tariffs are accelerating the shift of China's trade focus. Southeast Asia and Africa have become the main growth points. From January to July 2025, the number of direct sailings from China to Vietnam increased by 22% year - on - year, and the monthly number exceeded 300 since March, setting a record. However, if US demand weakens, Southeast Asian exports will be affected, which will reduce the demand for Chinese intermediate goods [5]. - **Transport Season**: The peak season for China - US cargo transportation usually lasts until October, but this year's peak occurred in July [5]. - **Shipping Company Policies**: CMA CGM will not charge shippers additional port fees for using Chinese - built container ships on US routes and will not reduce the coverage of US port calls. The Gemini's TP9/WC6 trans - Pacific route will be completely suspended in the fourth quarter of 2025 [5]. EC Market - **Market Review**: The market is in a downward trend. The GEMINI price in mid - September dropped to 1800. The market FMK freight rate center in mid - September was at 1850 [6]. - **Logic**: Maersk's opening price for the new week (wk39) dropped to 1550, a decrease of 150 compared to the previous week. OOCL dropped to 1600, and there is a possibility of further price drops in September. With the cooling of market optimism and the focus on spot quotes, the spot freight rates are still falling. Before the National Day on October 1st, the competition for goods may cause freight rates to continue to decline in the second half of September [7]. - **Strategy**: The recommended strategy is to go short on the October contract and roll the 10 - 12 reverse spread [8].

数据日报 国贸期货研究院 农产品研究中心 黄向岚 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 ITG国贸期货 投资咨询号: Z0021658 从业资格号:F03110419 | 粘预期仍处于累库周期:10月国内大豆预期开始去库,明年一季度的豆相供需缺口取决于中美政策变化、需求方面,生猪和禽类养殖辐 | | | --- | --- | | 11 | 斯顿朝维持高存栏。支撑河用需求，但政策导向控生猪存栏和体重，预期影响远月生猪供应。豆粕维价比较高。提货居于高位；本周豆 | | 结 | 柏下游成交谨慎。库存方面，国内大豆库存增至高位、豆粕库存上升，库存水平低于去年同期，但预期仍处于累库周期，饲料企业豆粕 | | 库存天数上升。 | | | 整体来说，出于美盘和贴水综合的进口成本支撑领期下,NO1下方空间预期有限。关注本周USDA9月报告结果。国内现货市场催提现 | | | 象严重,现货基差偏弱。短期盘面震荡调整,以逢低做多为主。 | | | 本报告中的信息均源于公开可获得的资料，国贸期货力求推广可靠，但不对上述信息的准确性及示释担放任何保证。本报告不构 | | | 电 | 成个人投资建议，也未针对个别投资者帮殊的 ...