2012 31 2025-06-09 | G国贸期货 | | --- | | 影响因素 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | | 回顾 | 本周国内大宗商品探底回升，小幅反弹，其中，工业品探底回升，农产品小幅震荡。主因一是，随着价格的持续走弱，黑色系供给端减产消息扰动增多，空头止盈 | | | 带动盘面反弹；二是，地缘政治因素反复，国际油价有所回升；三是，关税战缓和带动基本金属上涨。 | | 海外 | 1）美国5月ISM制造业PMI指数为48.5，不及预期和前值。订单量连续第四个月萎缩，进口指数创2009年以来新低，出口指数创五年新低，物价支付指数仍高企。5 | | | 月美国ISM制造业PMI连续第三个月萎缩，创2023年11月以来新低，凸显行业整体动能持续弱化。2）美国5月新增非农就业13.9万人，高于预期；5月失业率4.2%， | | | 与预期持平；本次非农数据高于预期，失业率也未上行，就业市场依旧稳健，由于关税潜在的通胀作用，美联储大概率将会继续观望，6月FOMC会议上美联储会 | | | 保持现有的利率水平不变。基准情形下，美联储或将于4季度开启降息，全年降息1-2次，降息幅度则有可能超过 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bullish: Gold, Silver, Crude Oil, Fuel Oil, Ethanol [1] - Bearish: Polycrystalline Silicon, Lithium Carbonate, Coking Coal, Coke, Logs, PTA, Short - Fiber, PVC [1] - Neutral (Oscillating): Stock Index, Treasury Bonds, Copper, Aluminum, Alumina, Nickel, Stainless Steel, Tin, Industrial Silicon, Rebar, Hot - Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Manganese Silicon, Silicon Ferrosilicon, Glass, Soda Ash, Palm Oil, Soybean Oil, Rapeseed Oil, Cotton, Sugar, Corn, Soybeans, Pulp, Live Pigs, Asphalt, Natural Rubber, BR Rubber, Ethylene Glycol, Styrene, Urea, Methanol, Seasonal Products, PVC, Caustic Soda, LPG, Container Shipping on European Routes [1] Group 2: Report's Core View - The short - term fluctuations of stock indices are dominated by overseas variables, and they are expected to oscillate strongly in the short term, but be cautious about the repeated signals of Sino - US tariffs [1]. - Asset scarcity and a weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank's short - term interest - rate risk warning restricts the upward space [1]. - The prices of various commodities are affected by factors such as supply and demand, policies, and international relations. For example, the price of copper is affected by supply and Sino - US relations; the price of aluminum is affected by inventory and downstream demand [1]. Group 3: Summary by Industry Macro - Finance - Stock Index: Overseas variables dominate short - term fluctuations, expected to oscillate strongly with caution about tariff signal repetitions [1]. - Treasury Bonds: Asset scarcity and weak economy are favorable, but central - bank interest - rate risk warning restricts upward space [1]. Non - Ferrous Metals - Gold: Expected to run strongly in the short term with a solid long - term upward logic [1]. - Silver: Technically broken through, expected to run strongly but beware of a pull - back [1]. - Copper: The Sino - US leaders' call boosts the price, but sufficient supply restricts the upward space [1]. - Aluminum: Low inventory supports the price, but weakening downstream demand may lead to a weakening oscillation [1]. - Alumina: Spot price rising, futures price falling due to increased production [1]. - Nickel: Expected to oscillate in the short term, with long - term surplus pressure [1]. - Stainless Steel: Follows macro - oscillations in the short term, with long - term supply pressure [1]. - Tin: Supply contradiction intensifies in the short term, expected to oscillate at a high level [1]. - Industrial Silicon: High supply in the northwest, resuming production in the southwest, low demand, and high inventory pressure [1]. Ferrous Metals - Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil: In the window period of peak - to - off - peak season, with loose cost and supply - demand patterns and no upward driving force [1]. - Iron Ore: Expecting the peak of molten iron, with supply increase in June [1]. - Manganese Silicon: Short - term supply - demand balance, with high warehouse - receipt pressure [1]. - Silicon Ferrosilicon: Cost is affected by coal, but production reduction makes supply - demand tight [1]. - Glass: Weak supply and demand, with prices continuing to weaken [1]. - Soda Ash: Direct demand is okay, but terminal demand is weak, with medium - term over - supply and price pressure [1]. - Coking Coal and Coke: Spot prices continue to weaken, and the futures can be shorted [1]. Agricultural Products - Sugar: Brazilian sugar production is expected to hit a record high, but oil prices may affect production [1]. - Corn: Supply - demand tightening supports a strong oscillation, but the increase is limited by substitute grains [1]. - Soybeans: Expected to oscillate due to the lack of strong upward driving force [1]. - Pulp: Demand is weak, but the downward space is limited [1]. - Logs: Supply is loose, demand is weak, and short - selling is recommended [1]. - Live Pigs: Inventory is sufficient, and futures are stable [1]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil and Fuel Oil: Sino - US calls, geopolitical situations, and the summer peak season support the prices [1]. - Asphalt: Affected by cost, inventory, and demand [1]. - Natural Rubber: Futures - spot price difference returns, cost support weakens, and inventory decreases [1]. - BR Rubber: Fundamentals are loose in the short term, and long - term factors need attention [1]. - PTA: Actual production hits a new high, and sales are difficult [1]. - Ethylene Glycol: Coal - to - ethylene glycol profit expands, and inventory is decreasing [1]. - Styrene: Speculative demand weakens, inventory rises, and the basis weakens [1]. - Urea: Expected to rebound due to export demand [1]. - Methanol: Entering the inventory - accumulation stage, with weak traditional demand [1]. - PVC: Supply pressure increases due to the end of maintenance and new device production [1]. - Caustic Soda: Spot is strong in the short term, but the price - reduction expectation is traded in advance [1]. - LPG: Prices are weak and oscillate in a narrow range [1]. Others - Container Shipping on European Routes: The contract in the peak season can be lightly tested for long positions, and attention should be paid to arbitrage opportunities [1].

投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 | 瓶片短纤数据日报 | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | 技资咨询号 Z0017251 2025/6/9 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 能源化工研究中心 陈胜 | 从业资格号: | | | | | | F3066728 | | 指标 | 2025/6/5 | 2025/6/6 | 变动值 | | | PTA现货价格 | 4845 | 4895 | 50. 00 | | | | | | | 现货资讯: | | MEG内盘价格 | 4425 | 4408 | (17.00) | 短纤:涤纶短纤涨26至6394。现货市场:涤纶 | | PTA收盘价 | 4644 | 4652 | 8.00 | 短纤生产企业价格僵持运行,贸易商价格稳中有 | | MEG收盘价 | 4283 | 4261 | (22.00) | 涨,下游按需采购,场内成交一般。 | | | | | | 1.56dtex*38mm半光本白(1.4D)涤纶短纤华东市 | | 1.4D直纺涤短 | 6575 | 6600 | 25.00 | 场价格在6330 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【黑色金属周报】 国贸期货 黑色金属研究中心 2025-06-09 张宝慧 从业资格证号：F0286636 投资咨询证号：Z0010820 董子勖 从业资格证号：F03094002 投资咨询证号：Z0020036 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 薛夏泽 从业资格证号：F03117750 目录 01 螺纹钢 险 资 偏 好 略 回 暖 ， 产 业 弱 叙 事 暂 无 根 本 性 改 变 板 块 淡 季 压 力 仍 在 ， 焦 煤 期 货 低 位 大 幅 反 弹 02 焦煤焦炭 03 铁矿石 结 构 性 矛 盾 并 未 影 响 基 本 面 的 边 际 走 弱 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议，期市有风险，投资需谨慎 01 PART ONE 螺纹钢 螺纹钢：险资偏好略回暖，产业弱叙事暂无根本性改变 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供给 | 偏空 | 铁水日均产量继续小跌，幅度很平缓，主要原因还是在于长 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The pulp market lacks clear driving factors in the short - term and is expected to fluctuate at a low level [1]. 3. Summary by Related Content Pulp Price Data - **Futures Prices**: On June 6, 2025, SP2601 was 5240, down 0.04% day - on - day and 2.13% week - on - week; SP2507 was 5280, unchanged day - on - day and down 3.86% week - on - week; SP2509 was 5224, down 0.08% day - on - day and 2.46% week - on - week [1]. - **Spot Prices**: Coniferous pulp Silver Star was 6150, unchanged day - on - day and down 0.81% week - on - week; Russian Needle was 5350, up 0.56% day - on - day and down 0.93% week - on - week; Broadleaf pulp Goldfish was 4120, unchanged day - on - day and down 0.72% week - on - week [1]. - **Outer - disk Quotes and Import Costs**: Outer - disk quotes of Chilean Silver Star, Star, and Venus were unchanged month - on - month, and their import costs were also unchanged [1]. Pulp Fundamental Data - **Supply**: In April 2025, coniferous pulp imports were 75.8 tons, down 5.01% month - on - month; broadleaf pulp imports were 119.9 tons, down 18.44% month - on - month. The pulp shipments to China in March 2025 were 1813 thousand tons, up 20.70% month - on - month. Domestic production of broadleaf pulp and chemimechanical pulp showed some fluctuations. Pulp port inventories and delivery - warehouse inventories also changed over different periods [1]. - **Demand**: Among the main finished paper production, white cardboard production increased slightly, while the production of other paper types was stable. Cultural paper and white cardboard manufacturers issued price - increase letters, but the implementation was poor. Downstream paper mills made purchases based on rigid demand [1]. Pulp Valuation Data - **Basis**: On June 6, 2025, the Russian Needle basis was 70 with a quantile level of 0.828, and the Silver Star basis was 870 with a quantile level of 0.975 [1]. - **Import Profit**: The import profit of coniferous pulp Silver Star was 104 with a quantile level of 0.78, and that of broadleaf pulp Goldfish was - 467 with a quantile level of 0.207 [1]. Supply - demand - inventory Situation - **Supply**: Chilean Arauco announced its June 2025 wood - pulp outer - disk prices. The coniferous pulp Silver Star was at 740 dollars/ton (face value) unchanged, and there was no broadleaf pulp supply in June, with partial recovery expected in July (limited quantity). The native pulp Venus was at 620 dollars/ton (face value) unchanged. According to the PPPG report, in April 2025, the shipments of M20 coniferous pulp to China decreased 2.9% year - on - year, while broadleaf pulp shipments increased 26.7% year - on - year [1]. - **Demand**: See the above demand - related content. - **Inventory**: As of May 29, 2025, the sample inventory of China's mainstream pulp ports was 216.1 tons, an increase of 0.4 tons from the previous period, a 0.2% month - on - month increase. The inventory showed a slight accumulation trend with little overall change in this cycle [1].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View - Domestic factors have a weak driving force on stock indices, with a weak fundamental performance and a relative policy vacuum. Overseas variables dominate short - term fluctuations. Positive signals in Sino - US economic and trade relations are expected to boost the equity market, and stock indices are expected to be strong in the short term. However, be vigilant about the repeated signals of Sino - US tariffs and be cautious about chasing up [7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Money Market - DRO01 closed at 1.41, down 0.10bp; DR007 closed at 1.55, down 0.41bp; GC001 closed at 1.45, up 4.50bp; GC007 closed at 1.56, unchanged; SHBOR 3M closed at 1.65, down 0.10bp; LPR 5 - year closed at 3.50, down 10.00bp; 1 - year treasury bond closed at 1.44, down 1.75bp; 5 - year treasury bond closed at 1.52, down 0.85bp; 10 - year treasury bond closed at 1.68, up 0.40bp; 10 - year US treasury bond closed at 4.40, up 3.00bp [4] - Last week, the central bank conducted 930.9 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations and had 1602.6 billion yuan of reverse repurchase maturities, resulting in a net withdrawal of 671.7 billion yuan in the full - caliber open - market operations [4] - This week, 930.9 billion yuan of reverse repurchase will mature in the central bank's open - market operations, with 0 billion, 454.5 billion, 214.9 billion, 126.5 billion, and 135 billion yuan maturing from Monday to Friday respectively. After the monthly bank assessment, the capital market tends to be loose, and the central bank uses various tools to maintain reasonable and sufficient mid - year liquidity [5] Stock Market - The closing prices of major indices: CSI 300 was 3874, down 0.09%; SSE 50 was 2689, down 0.12%; CSI 500 was 5762, down 0.14%; CSI 1000 was 6153, down 0.23%. The closing prices of corresponding futures contracts: IF was 3855, up 0.1%; IH was 2674, unchanged; IC was 5725, unchanged; IM was 6100, unchanged [6] - Last week, CSI 300 rose 0.88% to 3874; SSE 50 rose 0.38% to 2688.9; CSI 500 rose 1.6% to 5762.1; CSI 1000 rose 2.1% to 6152.8. Among Shenwan's primary industry indices, communication (5.3%), non - ferrous metals (3.7%), electronics (3.6%), comprehensive (2.9%), and computer (2.8%) led the gains, while household appliances (- 1.8%), food and beverages (- 1.1%), transportation (- 0.5%), steel (- 0.2%), and public utilities (- 0.1%) led the losses [6] - The trading volume and positions of futures contracts decreased. IF trading volume was 64010, down 8.3%; IF positions were 227571, down 1.7%; IH trading volume was 34884, down 8.4%; IH positions were 78444, down 3.6%; IC trading volume was 53635, down 17.5%; IC positions were 207892, down 1.8%; IM trading volume was 135171, down 25.1%; IM positions were 314603, down 4.5% [6] Futures Premium and Discount - The premium and discount rates of futures contracts vary. For example, IF's premium and discount rates for the current - month, next - month, current - quarter, and next - quarter contracts are 14.59%, 13.19%, 0.02%, and 6.22% respectively [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall shipping derivatives market shows a complex situation. The spot market has a tendency to increase prices in late June, and the futures market fluctuates upward. It is recommended to hold the 12 - 4 positive spread [8][9] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Shipping Freight Index - **SCFI and CCFI**: The current value of the Shanghai Export Container Freight Composite Index (SCFI) is 2240, with a previous value of 2073 and a rise - fall rate of 8.09%. The current value of the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) is 1155, with a previous value of 1118 and a rise - fall rate of 3.34% [5] - **Regional Routes**: SCFI - US West has a current value of 5606, a rise - fall rate of 8.39%; SCFI - US East has a current value of 6933, a rise - fall rate of 11.15%; SCFI - Northwest Europe has a current value of 1667, a rise - fall rate of 5.04%; SCFIS - Northwest Europe has a current value of 1252, a rise - fall rate of 0.40%; SCFI - Mediterranean has a current value of 3302, a rise - fall rate of 7.87%. However, SCFIS - US West has a current value of 1718, a fall rate of 0.12% [5] 3.2 EC Futures Contracts - **Prices**: For contracts like EC2506, EC2508, etc., their prices have different changes. For example, EC2506 has a current value of 1936.8, a previous value of 1971.1, and a fall rate of - 1.74%; EC2508 has a current value of 2062.5, a previous value of 2146.3, and a fall rate of - 3.90%. But EC2604 has a current value of 1217.3, a previous value of 1205.7, and a rise rate of 0.96% [5] - **Positions**: The positions of different contracts also vary. For example, the current value of EC2506 position is 8138, with a decrease of 622 compared to the previous value; the current value of EC2508 position is 46227, with a decrease of 1027 compared to the previous value [5] - **Monthly Spreads**: The current values of 10 - 12, 12 - 2, and 12 - 4 monthly spreads are 732.5, - 174.2, and 286.9 respectively, with changes of - 57.8, 11.8, and - 49.4 compared to the previous values [5] 3.3 Trade Situation - **Tariff Adjustment**: China will reduce the tariff on US goods from 125% to 10% for 90 days, and the US will reduce the tariff on Chinese goods from 145% to 30% for 190 days [5] - **Trade Friction**: There are signs of a resurgence of Sino - US trade frictions. Trump claims that China violated the agreement, and the US plans to impose broader sanctions on Chinese technology. Also, the US trade negotiation team has internal differences, which may complicate the negotiation in London on June 9 [6][7] 3.4 Market Situation - **Spot Market**: In late June, shipping companies are eager to raise prices. The COSCO offline quotation is 4200, CMA is 4250, etc. The market average transaction price in the first week of June is 2350 $/FEU, and the high - end (75% quantile) transaction price is 2700 $/FEU. Although the Far - East to Northern Europe route is not directly affected by Sino - US tariffs, the change in one region can affect the whole supply chain [8] - **Futures Market**: The price increase of shipping companies in late June stimulates the futures market to fluctuate upward. The near - month contracts of June and August are most affected, with the August contract being more elastic as June enters the delivery logic, while the far - month contracts follow the fundamental logic [8] 3.5 Strategy Recommendation - Hold the 12 - 4 positive spread [9]

【玻璃纯碱（ 】 低位价格弹性大，市场情绪易波动 国贸期货 黑色金属研究中心 2025-06-09 黄志鸿 从业资格证号：F3051824 投资咨询证号：Z0015761 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 玻璃:供需双弱 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 供给 | 偏空 | 产量下降。本周全国浮法玻璃日产量为15.68万吨，行业开工率为75.68%，比29日-0.34个百分点；产能利用率为78.14%，比29日-0.47个百分 | | | | | | 点。本周2条产线放水，1条产线点火，但点火产线暂无玻璃产出，整体来看供应量呈现下降趋势。下周1条产线存在冷修预期，2条产线计划点 | | | | | | 火，产量持稳为主。 | | | | 需求 | 偏空 | 需求预期走弱，淡季来临，需求或边际下滑。稳增长压力较大，中期地产颓势难挽，竣工数据同比延续下滑，后市需求担忧犹存。 ...

利润估算 种类 外购锂辉石精矿现金成本 60696 N 利 # 王 外购锂辉石精矿利润 -1336 外购锂云母精矿现金成本 64355 外购锂云母精矿利润 -6488 行业 西藏矿业降价75№继续抛售锂资产。6月2日，西藏矿业再次调整自银扎布耶锂业有限公司100%股权的挂牌价，将挂牌转让底价调整为17692.13 继续推进本次资产出售。自2022年9月以来，西藏矿业多次尝试出售这家子公司。最初6.84亿元的挂牌价无人问津，随后一 如今跌破2亿关口,相比首次挂牌价格降幅高达75%,却依然找不到接盘方。 主要 视情绪提振和下游小幅补库，碳酸锂价格出现反弹。但矿价持续下跌的矛盾没有变。且价格反弹后，碳酸锂供给快速增加，而需求趋于平 预计随着下游补库节奏,碳酸锂价格将重回偏弱趋势 xiti 贡 免 告中的信息均源于公开可获得的资料,国贸期货力求准确可靠。但不对上述信息的准确性及完整性做任何保证。本报告不构成个人投资8 对个别投资者特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要，投资者需自行判断本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况，据此投资，责任自负。本报告仅向 特定客户推送，未经国贸期货授权许可，任何引用、转载以及向第三方传播 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no specific investment rating for the industry mentioned in the report. Group 2: Report's Core View - Zheng sugar is expected to maintain a weak and oscillating trend. The reasons include the increasing global supply of sugar, with Brazil's central - southern region having a high - volume sugar production forecast for the 25/26 season, the arrival of imported sugar in the third quarter, the narrowing price difference between imported and domestic sugar, and the impact of low - cost substitutes on domestic sugar consumption [4]. Group 3: Summary Based on Related Data Domestic Spot Sugar Prices - In Guangxi, the price in Nanning warehouse is 6190 yuan/ton with no change, and the basis with SR09 is 455 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton. In Yunnan, the price in Kunming is 5915 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton, and the basis with SR09 is 280 yuan/ton with no change; in Dali, it is 5840 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton, and the basis with SR09 is 245 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton. In Shandong, the price in Rizhao is 6205 yuan/ton with no change, and the basis with SR09 is 370 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton [4]. Domestic Futures Sugar Prices - SR09 is 5735 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton; SR01 is 5590 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan/ton. The spread between SR09 and SR01 is 145 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan/ton [4]. Exchange Rates and International Commodity Prices - The RMB - US dollar exchange rate is 7.1975, up 0.0030; the Brazilian real - RMB exchange rate is 1.2818, up 0.0212; the Indian rupee - RMB exchange rate is 0.084, down 0.0004. The ICE raw sugar main contract is 16.51 cents/pound, down 0.11 cents/pound; the London white sugar main contract is 573 dollars/ton, up 3 dollars/ton; the Brent crude oil main contract is 66.65 dollars/barrel, up 1.36 dollars/barrel [4]. Supply - related Information - Brazil's central - southern region's sugarcane crushing volume in the second half of April increased year - on - year, the sugar - making ratio remained high, and the expected sugar production in the 25/26 season may reach 42 million tons. The global supply pattern is strong. Imported sugar is expected to arrive in China starting from mid - to - late June, increasing supply pressure in the third quarter. The out - of - quota import cost from Brazil has dropped to 5980 yuan/ton, and the price difference with domestic spot sugar has narrowed to 150 yuan/ton. From January to March, the import of syrup and premixed powder was 242,000 tons (equivalent to about 156,000 tons of sugar), and low - cost substitutes are squeezing the consumption space of domestic sugar [4].