Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The market mainly traded on the expectation of "anti - involution" policies last week as no incremental policies were further introduced. The market is highly concerned about whether the upcoming policies from the July Politburo meeting will signal a new round of supply - side reform and focuses on the policy priorities for the second - half economic work [7]. - With the short - term ebb of hot topics, the upward speed of stock indices may slow down in the short term, presenting a volatile pattern. The market also pays attention to the July Politburo meeting communique and the Sino - US trade consultation on Wednesday [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Money Market - **Market Data**: DRO01 closed at 1.52 with a - 13.41bp change, DR007 at 1.65 with a 7.64bp change, GC001 at 1.35 with a 26.00bp change, etc. The 10 - year US Treasury yield decreased by 3.00bp to 4.40 [4]. - **Central Bank Operations**: Last week, the central bank conducted 16563 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations, 4000 billion yuan of MLF, and 1000 billion yuan of treasury cash fixed - deposit operations. With 17268 billion yuan of reverse repurchase, 2000 billion yuan of MLF, and 1200 billion yuan of treasury cash fixed - deposit maturing, the net injection was 1095 billion yuan. This week, 16563 billion yuan of reverse repurchases will mature [4][5]. - **Market Situation**: The inter - bank market liquidity has tightened recently, with DR001 rising above 1.5% and DR007 above 1.65% [5]. Stock Index Market - **Market Data**: The CSI 300 closed at 4127 with a - 0.53% change, the SSE 50 at 2796 with a - 0.60% change, etc. The trading volumes and positions of IF, IH, IC, and IM all decreased. Last week, the CSI 300 rose 1.69%, the SSE 50 rose 1.12%, etc. The daily average trading volume increased by 2778.4 billion yuan compared to the previous week. In the Shenwan primary industry index, construction materials (8.2%), steel (7.7%), etc. led the gains, while only banking (- 2.9%), communication (- 0.8%), and public utilities (- 0.3%) declined [6]. - **Market Situation**: The market was mainly driven by the expectation of "anti - involution" policies last week. Stocks were mainly hyped around the Yarlung Zangbo River project, "anti - involution" policy expectations, and Hainan Free Trade Zone themes [7]. Futures Premium and Discount - **Premium and Discount Data**: IF's current - month contract had a premium of 2.03%, IH's current - month contract had a discount of - 0.06%, IC's current - month contract had a premium of 11.71%, and IM's current - month contract had a premium of 11.00% [8].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - Supply - side rumor disturbances have led to a stronger price trend. At the current price level, downstream acceptance of spot goods is low, with few actual transactions and an increase in upstream hedging volume. In the short term, market sentiment is strong, but after the price rises, the pricing weights of fundamental contradictions and hedging pressure may increase. Industrial players can consider selling at high prices [3]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Lithium Compounds - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate has an average price of 72,900 yuan with a daily increase of 2,350 yuan; SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate has an average price of 70,700 yuan with a daily increase of 1,800 yuan [1]. - Futures contracts: lithium carbonate 2508 has a closing price of 79,400 yuan with a daily increase of 8%; lithium carbonate 2509 has a closing price of 80,520 yuan with a daily increase of 7.99%; lithium carbonate 2510 has a closing price of 79,860 yuan with a daily increase of 7.86%; lithium carbonate 2511 has a closing price of 79,160 yuan with a daily increase of 7.99%; lithium carbonate 2512 has a closing price of 78,600 yuan with a daily increase of 7.35% [1]. Lithium Ore - Lithium spodumene concentrate (CIF China) (Li₂O: 5.5% - 6%) has an average price of 810 yuan with a daily increase of 46 yuan; lithium mica (Li₂O: 1.5% - 2.0%) has an average price of 1,165 yuan with a daily increase of 85 yuan; lithium mica (Li₂O: 2.0% - 2.5%) has an average price of 1,790 yuan with a daily increase of 135 yuan; phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li₂O: 6% - 7%) has an average price of 6,490 yuan with a daily increase of 645 yuan; phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li₂O: 7% - 8%) has an average price of 7,450 yuan with a daily increase of 650 yuan [1][2]. Cathode Materials - The average price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) is 33,255 yuan with a daily increase of 565 yuan; the average price of ternary material 811 (polycrystalline/power type) is 144,230 yuan with a daily increase of 780 yuan; the average price of ternary material 523 (single - crystal/power type) is 116,595 yuan with a daily increase of 650 yuan; the average price of ternary material 613 (single - crystal/power type) is 121,635 yuan with a daily increase of 760 yuan [2]. Price Spreads - The difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 2,200 yuan with a daily increase of 550 yuan; the difference between battery - grade lithium carbonate and the main contract is - 7,620 yuan with a daily decrease of 1,490 yuan; the difference between the near - month and the first - continuous contract is - 1,120 yuan with a daily decrease of 940 yuan; the difference between the near - month and the second - continuous contract is - 460 yuan with a daily decrease of 1,500 yuan [2]. Inventory - The total inventory (weekly, tons) is 143,170 tons with a weekly increase of 550 tons; the inventory of smelters (weekly, tons) is 55,385 tons with a weekly decrease of 2,654 tons; the inventory of downstream enterprises (weekly, tons) is 42,815 tons with a weekly increase of 1,544 tons; the inventory of other sources (weekly, tons) is 44,970 tons with a weekly increase of 1,660 tons; the registered warehouse receipts (daily, tons) is 11,996 tons with a daily increase of 342 tons [2]. Profit Estimation - The cash cost of purchasing lithium spodumene concentrate externally is 71,661 yuan, and the profit is 77,138 yuan; the cash cost of purchasing lithium mica concentrate externally is not clearly stated, and the profit is - 7,248 yuan [3]. Industry News - Jiangte Motor's subsidiary Yichun Yinli plans to conduct equipment maintenance on its production line starting from July 25, 2025, with an estimated maintenance time of 26 days, covering all lithium salt production lines [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Commodity sentiment has turned positive, domestic PTA production capacity supply has shrunk, PTA port inventories have declined, and a large number of warehouse receipts are being cancelled [2] - The spread between PX and naphtha has expanded to around $250, while the alkyl transfer and TDP profit margins are not optimistic. The spread between PX and MX remains at around $90 [2] - In July, bottle chips and short fibers are about to enter the maintenance cycle. Market port inventories are being depleted, and polyester replenishment has improved as the basis weakens [2] - The early maintenance of mainstream PTA factories has significantly boosted the market [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Changes - PTA spot price increased from 4815 to 4895, with a change of 80 [2] - MEG domestic price rose from 4530 to 4582, up 52 [2] - PTA closing price went up from 4850 to 4936, an increase of 86 [2] - MEG closing price increased from 4485 to 4545, up 60 [2] - 1.4D direct-spun polyester staple fiber price rose from 6650 to 6705, up 55 [2] - Short fiber basis increased from 152 to 160, up 8 [2] - 8 - 9 spread changed from 8 to 22, a change of 14 [2] - Polyester staple fiber cash flow increased from 240 to 246, up 6 [2] - 1.4D imitation large chemical fiber price remained unchanged at 5750 [2] - The spread between 1.4D direct-spun and imitation large chemical fiber increased from 900 to 955, up 55 [2] - East China water bottle chip price increased from 5992 to 6084, up 92 [2] - Hot-filled polyester bottle chip price rose from 5992 to 6084, up 92 [2] - Carbonated-grade polyester bottle chip price increased from 6092 to 6184, up 92 [2] - Outer market water bottle chip price increased from 790 to 791, up 1 [2] - Bottle chip spot processing fee increased from 358 to 364, up 6.18 [2] - T32S pure polyester yarn price remained unchanged at 10420 [2] - T32S pure polyester yarn processing fee decreased from 3770 to 3715, down 55 [2] - Polyester-cotton yarn 65/35 45S price remained unchanged at 16300 [2] - Cotton 328 price decreased from 15350 to 15280, down 70 [2] - Polyester-cotton yarn profit decreased from 1089 to 1079, down 10.01 [2] - Virgin three-dimensional hollow (with silicon) price remained unchanged at 7045 [2] - Hollow short fiber 6 - 15D cash flow decreased from 211 to 125, down 85.82 [2] - Virgin low-melting short fiber price remained unchanged at 7370 [2] 3.2 Market Conditions - Short fiber: Driven by the anti-involution market, the overall trend of the commodity market was strong during the day. The spot market of polyester staple fiber fluctuated upwards following the futures price. The continuous price increase boosted downstream buying, the daily sales of factories improved slightly, and the quotation center of traders moved up [2] - Bottle chips: The market price of polyester bottle chips increased. Polyester raw materials PTA and bottle chip futures fluctuated strongly. During the day, the supply-side quotations of bottle chips were adjusted upwards. Downstream terminals were cautiously waiting and watching, the market trading atmosphere was cold, and it was difficult to make high-level transactions [2] 3.3 Load and Production and Sales Rates - Direct-spun short fiber load (weekly) decreased from 92.30% to 93.00%, a change of -0.01 [3] - Polyester staple fiber production and sales rate increased from 69.00% to 74.00%, up 5.00% [3] - Polyester yarn startup rate (weekly) decreased from 66.00% to 65.00%, a change of -0.01 [3] - Regenerated cotton-type load index (weekly) decreased from 51.50% to 46.00%, a change of -0.06 [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The sentiment for commodities has turned positive, the PTA production capacity supply in China has contracted, the port inventory of PTA has declined, and a large number of warehouse receipts are being cancelled. The spread between PX and naphtha has expanded to around $250, while the profit margins of alkyl transfer and TDP are not optimistic. The spread between PX and MX remains at around $90. Bottle chips and staple fibers are about to enter the maintenance cycle in July. The market port inventory has been reduced, and polyester replenishment has improved under the weakening basis. The basis of PTA has rebounded from 0 to 30. The maintenance of the northeast PX plant and the Zhejiang reforming unit has been postponed. The early maintenance of mainstream PTA factories has significantly boosted the market [2]. - The coal price has rebounded, leading to an increase in the ethylene glycol price. The macro - sentiment has clearly improved, and the chemical industry has followed the upward trend of commodity sentiment. The maintenance of overseas ethylene glycol plants, especially those in Saudi Arabia, has been continuously postponed, which may have a significant impact on the future market. This has also been boosting the ethylene glycol price. The future arrival volume of ethylene glycol has decreased. The polyester production and sales have weakened, and the polyester has entered the maintenance cycle. Due to the rapid increase in polyester prices, the profits of downstream weaving have shrunk, and the terminal load has significantly declined, which has a certain negative impact on the market [2]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Data Summary - **Crude Oil**: INE crude oil price increased from 508.9 yuan/barrel on July 24, 2025, to 512.9 yuan/barrel on July 25, 2025, with an increase of 4 yuan/barrel [2]. - **PTA - Related Data**: PTA - SC spread increased from 1151.8 yuan/ton to 1208.7 yuan/ton, PTA/SC ratio increased from 1.3114 to 1.3243. CFR China PX price increased from 856 to 874, PX - naphtha spread increased from 289 to 294. PTA主力期价 increased from 4850 yuan/ton to 4936 yuan/ton, and the spot price increased from 4815 yuan/ton to 4895 yuan/ton. The spot processing fee decreased from 206.8 yuan/ton to 192.6 yuan/ton, and the disk processing fee decreased from 236.8 yuan/ton to 223.6 yuan/ton. The主力基差 decreased from 0 to - 8. The PTA warehouse receipt quantity decreased from 30746 to 30740 [2]. - **MEG - Related Data**: MEG主力期价 increased from 4485 yuan/ton to 4545 yuan/ton, MEG - naphtha spread increased from - 84.67 yuan/ton to - 78.86 yuan/ton, MEG内盘 increased from 4530 yuan/ton to 4582 yuan/ton, and the主力基差 increased from 58 to 60 [2]. - **Industrial Chain开工情况**: PX开工率 remained at 77.29%, PTA开工率 remained at 80.59%, MEG开工率 increased from 57.48% to 57.74%, and the polyester load remained at 87.01% [2]. - **Polyester Product Data**: POY150D/48F price increased from 6685 to 6710, POY现金流 decreased from - 199 to - 260. FDY150D/96F price increased from 6930 to 7000, FDY现金流 decreased from - 454 to - 470. DTY150D/48F price increased from 7860 to 7895, DTY现金流 decreased from - 224 to - 275. The long - filament production and sales decreased from 44% to 29%. 1.4D直纺涤短 price increased from 6650 to 6705, 涤短现金流 decreased from 116 to 85, and the short - fiber production and sales increased from 68% to 78%. The semi - light slice price increased from 5865 to 5925, 切片现金流 decreased from - 119 to - 145, and the slice production and sales increased from 86% to 130% [2]. 2. Device Maintenance Dynamics - A 1.5 - million - ton PTA device in East China that stopped for maintenance around May 6 has been restarted after feeding materials. A 3 - million - ton PTA device in East China has recently stopped for maintenance, with an expected maintenance period of about 10 days [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The pulp futures are currently greatly affected by the macro - environment, and the commodity sentiment is expected to be volatile this week. It is recommended to observe cautiously [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Pulp Price Data - **Futures Prices**: On July 25, 2025, SP2601 was 5572, up 0.47% day - on - day and 2.39% week - on - week; SP2605 was 5450, up 0.22% day - on - day and down 0.59% week - on - week; SP2509 was 5520, up 1.17% day - on - day and 4.31% week - on - week [1] - **Spot Prices**: On July 25, 2025, the spot price of coniferous pulp Silver Star was 5920, unchanged day - on - day and week - on - week; Russian Needle was 5500, up 1.48% day - on - day and 3.77% week - on - week; broadleaf pulp Goldfish was 4150, unchanged day - on - day and up 1.22% week - on - week [1] - **Outer - disk Quotes and Import Costs**: The outer - disk quote of Chilean Silver Star was 720 dollars, down 2.70% month - on - month; Chilean Star was 500 dollars, down 10.71% month - on - month; Chilean Venus was 620 dollars, unchanged month - on - month. The import cost of Chilean Silver Star was 5884, down 2.68% month - on - month; Chilean Star was 4101, down 10.60% month - on - month; Chilean Venus was 5073, unchanged month - on - month [1] Pulp Fundamental Data - **Import Volume**: In June 2025, the import volume of coniferous pulp was 67.8 tons, down 6.09% month - on - month; the import volume of broadleaf pulp was 143.5 tons, up 10.98% month - on - month [1] - **Domestic Output**: The domestic output of broadleaf pulp on July 24, 2025, was 21 tons; the domestic output of chemimechanical pulp was 21.5 tons [1] - **Inventory**: As of July 24, 2025, the inventory of China's mainstream pulp ports was 214.3 tons, a decrease of 3.8 tons from the previous period, a 1.7% decline [1] - **Finished Paper Output**: This week, the output of major finished papers decreased slightly, with double - offset paper at 19.60 tons, copper - plate paper at 7.90 tons, tissue paper at 27.90 tons, and white cardboard at 31.10 tons [1] Pulp Valuation Data - **Basis**: On July 25, 2025, the basis of Russian Needle was - 20, with a quantile level of 0.646; the basis of Silver Star was 400, with a quantile level of 0.793 [1] - **Import Profit**: On July 25, 2025, the import profit of coniferous pulp Silver Star was 36, with a quantile level of 0.685; that of broadleaf pulp Goldfish was 49, with a quantile level of 0.69 [1] Supply - demand - inventory Analysis - **Supply**: The Arauco company in Chile announced the new outer - disk quotes for July wood pulp. The supply side showed an increase in volume and a decrease in price, with the W20's shipment volume to China in May up 3.3% month - on - month [1] - **Demand**: This week, the output of major finished papers decreased slightly, and the prices of finished papers remained low, providing weak support for pulp [1] - **Inventory**: As of July 24, 2025, the inventory of China's mainstream pulp ports showed a slight de - stocking trend [1] Strategy - It is recommended to observe pulp futures cautiously due to their high sensitivity to the macro - environment and the expected volatile commodity sentiment this week [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, the market's risk - aversion demand has declined due to progress in tariff negotiations and the ECB's reduction of the September interest - rate cut expectation, as well as the Fed's likely on - hold stance in July, which suppresses precious metal prices. However, due to the uncertainty of tariff policies and the Fed's possible rate cut in August, precious metal prices may not continue to fall. Silver may run bearishly in the short - term due to the general decline in commodity sentiment, and it is recommended to wait and see [3]. - In the long - term, against the backdrop of the trade war, the Fed still has a certain probability of cutting interest rates within the year. With global geopolitical uncertainties, intensified great - power games, and the wave of de - dollarization, the central banks' gold purchases continue, so the long - term center of gravity of gold is likely to continue to move up [3]. 3. Summary by Related Contents 3.1 Price and Spread Information - **Price**: On July 25, 2025, London gold spot was 3358.72, London silver spot was 774.70, AU (T + D) was 3360.30, COMEX silver was 9368.00, AG (T + D) was 773.17, COMEX gold was 9365.00, AU2508 was 39.30, and AG2508 was 39.08. Compared with July 24, the price changes were - 0.2%, - 0.2%, 0.1%, - 0.5%, - 0.1%, - 0.6%, 0.1%, - 0.2% respectively [3]. - **Spread**: On July 25, 2025, the gold internal - external spread (TD - London) was - 1.53, the silver internal - external spread (TD - London) was 1.95, the gold TD - SHFE active spread was 82.70, and the silver TD - SHFE active spread was - 3. Compared with July 24, the spread changes were - 1.3%, - 1.7%, - 0.3%, - 2.1% respectively [3]. 3.2 Position and Inventory Information - **Position**: As of July 25, 2025, COMEX gold non - commercial net long positions, non - commercial short positions, and non - commercial long positions were 15230.42858, 253038, 957.09 respectively; COMEX silver non - commercial net long positions, non - commercial short positions, and non - commercial long positions were 311949, 58911, 85678 respectively. The gold ETF - SPDR position was 25058, and the silver ETF - SLV position was 60620 [3]. - **Inventory**: On July 25, 2025, SHFE silver inventory was 500320749 kg, SHFE gold inventory was 37762394 kg, COMEX silver inventory was 30258.00 ounces, and COMEX gold inventory was 1187254.00 ounces. Compared with July 24, the inventory changes were 0.39%, 0.51%, - 0.12%, 3.07% respectively [3]. 3.3 Macroeconomic Data - The US July Markit manufacturing PMI preliminary value dropped to 49.5, the lowest since December 2024 and the first contraction since then, far below the expected 52.7 and the previous value of 62.9. The new orders index preliminary value dropped to 49.7, the lowest since December last year. However, the US July Markit services PMI preliminary value was 5.2, far exceeding expectations and the previous value, and the employment sub - index preliminary value rose to 52.6 [3]. - The US June durable goods orders preliminary month - on - month value was + 9.3%, higher than the expected - 0.7% [3]. 3.4 Other News - Trump said he thought Powell would cut interest rates, had a good talk with Powell about interest rates, and that the economic situation was good [3]. - On July 26, the border conflict between Thailand and Cambodia entered the third day, causing hundreds of casualties [3]. - Trump said he would issue nearly 200 tariff letters with tariff rates of 10% or 15%, was unclear about the prospects of a US - EU agreement, and might impose tariffs on Canada directly. He also said more fine - tuning would be done on the US - UK trade agreement, but there was little room for negotiation on steel and aluminum [3]. 3.5 Market Performance - On July 25, the main contract of Shanghai gold futures closed down 0.88% to 777.32 yuan/gram, and the main contract of Shanghai silver futures closed down 0.31% to 9392 yuan/kg [3].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall trend of the EC market is downward. It is expected that the freight rates on the European route will peak at the end of July, with a low possibility of a rate hike in August, and even if a hike is called, the success rate will be low. Freight rates are about to enter a rounded - top trend, and an accelerated decline is expected at the end of August [7][8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Shipping Freight Index - **Present Values and Changes**: The present values of Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) and China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) are 1647 and 1261 respectively, with daily changes of - 3.30% and - 3.23%. SCFI - US West, SCFIS - US West, SCFI - US East, and SCFI - Northwest Europe are at 2067, 1301, 3378, and 2090 respectively, with changes of - 3.50%, 2.76%, - 6.48%, and 0.53%. SCFIS - Northwest Europe and SCFI - Mediterranean are at 2400 and 2418, with changes of - 0.87% and - 4.35% [4]. 3.2 Shipping Derivative Contracts - **Contract Prices and Changes**: For contracts EC2506, EC2508, EC2510, EC2512, EC2602, and EC2604, the present values are 1518.0, 2212.6, 1527.5, 1720.2, 1518.8, and 1361.7 respectively, with changes of 0.74%, - 1.44%, - 3.56%, - 3.35%, - 2.78%, and - 1.47% [4][5]. - **Contract Positions and Changes**: The present positions of EC2606, EC2508, EC2410, EC2412, EC2602, and EC2604 are 788, 8358, 49977, 8520, 4479, and 5525 respectively, with changes of - 53, - 1326, - 609, - 221, 152, and 12 [5]. - **Monthly Spread and Changes**: The present monthly spreads for 10 - 12, 12 - 2, and 12 - 4 are 685.1, - 192.7, and 358.5 respectively, with changes of 24.1, 3.3, and - 39.4 [5]. 3.3 Market Influencing Factors - **Price Announcements by Shipping Companies**: ONE's August upper - ten - day list price for large containers remains the same as in late July, and CM4 reduced prices at the end of July. MSK's August first - week freight rate is lower than the current selling price, and Maersk's overtime ship opening also affected the market [8]. 3.4 Investment Strategy - The recommended strategy is to short contracts 10 on rallies and hold the long - 12 short - 4 calendar spread [9].

| | | | | | | | HE BE ROVER FR | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | | | 2025/07/28 | 国贸期货出品 TG国贸期货 | | | | | | | | | | | 投资咨询业务资格: 证监许可[2012] 31号 | | | | | | | | | | 黑色金属研究中心 | 执业证号 投资咨询证号 | | | | | | | | | | 张宝慧 | F0286636 Z0010820 | | | | | | | | | | 黄志鸿 | F3051824 Z0015761 | | | | | | | | | | 董子勖 | F03094002 Z0020036 | | | | | | | | | | 薛夏泽 | Z0022680 F03117750 | | | | 远月合约收盘价 | RB2601 | HC2601 | 12601 | J2601 | JM2601 | 7000 | | - 1000 | | | (元/吨) | | | | | | 6 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议，期市有风险，投资需谨慎 01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 棉花：商品冲高回落，棉市窄幅震荡 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 供给 | 中性 | 旧作库存短缺矛盾逐步计价，新作丰产预期尚未兑现。 | | | 需求 | 偏多 | 纺纱产能过剩，开机率居高不下，导致棉花工业需求坚挺。 | | | 库存 | 中性 | 全国商业库存去化速度较快，全国工业库存维持高位。 | | | 基差/价差 | 中性 | （1）本周郑棉基差维持震荡，新疆双28现货基差1000-1200。（2）本周郑棉9-1月差持续走强。 | | | 利润 | 偏空 | 新疆纺纱微亏，内地纺纱亏损严重。纱花价差低位运行。 | | | 估值 | 中性 目前绝对价格处于近四年中性水平。 | | | | 宏观及政策 | 偏多 | 国内方面，内需政策逐步加码，有利于托底国产棉花的远期需求。 | | | 投资观点 | 震荡 | | 短期需求端表现一般，供应端维 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The recent decline in bond futures provides a good opportunity to enter the market. The current bond market stabilization is supported by three factors: positive signals from monetary policy, a stable trend in the capital market, and the configuration value of bond yields after previous adjustments [8]. - In the long - term, insufficient effective demand is the main challenge for China's economic development, and deflation is likely to continue. Therefore, the fundamentals are still favorable for bond futures. With the coordinated efforts of monetary and fiscal policies, the logic of a bond bull market is expected to continue [8]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 PART ONE: Main Views - This week, treasury bond futures declined significantly. The 30 - year main contract fell by about 2%, and the 10 - year contract fell by over 0.5%. The short - end showed relative resistance. The market focus was on the commodity market, where commodities started a bullish trend. The rise in commodities may break the deflation trend, improve corporate profitability, and lead to a recovery in risk appetite. The increase in capital prices and marginal tightening of liquidity further intensified the bond market correction, and bond funds faced redemption pressure [4]. - Looking forward, the current decline in bond futures offers a good entry opportunity. The bond market is supported by positive monetary policy signals, a stable capital market, and the attractiveness of bond yields. In the long - run, due to insufficient effective demand, deflation is likely to continue, and the bond bull market logic may persist [8]. 3.2 PART TWO: Liquidity Tracking - The report presents various liquidity - related data, including open - market operations (amount and price), medium - term lending facilities (amount and price), reverse repurchase rates, deposit - related interest rates, and bond yield data, but does not provide specific analysis based on these data [11][12][14]. 3.3 PART THREE: Treasury Bond Futures Arbitrage Indicator Tracking - The report shows data on treasury bond futures basis, net basis, internal rate of return (IRR), and implied interest rates for 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year bonds, but does not offer specific analysis based on these data [42][51][59][65].