投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【PVC 周报（PVC ）】 宏观情绪消退，盘面价格震荡偏弱 国贸期货 能源化工研究中心 2025-12-01 叶海文 从业资格证号：F3071622 投资咨询证号：Z0014205 张国才 从业资格证号：F03133773 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 PVC:宏观情绪消退，盘面价格震荡偏弱 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供给 | 偏空 | （1）本周国内PVC现货市场窄幅调整，基本面难改供大于求格局，PVC供应受检修影响小幅上升，市场需求维持平淡。（2）本周PVC生产企业产能利用 | | | | 率在80.22%环比增加1.38%，同比减少0.31%；其中电石法在83.61%环比增加2.30%，同比增加3.26%，乙烯法在72.38%环比减少0.73%，同比减少8.69%。 | | | | （3）本周PVC生产企业检修损失量在5.058万吨，较上期减少0.30万吨。本周常规性检修减少，影响 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 谢威 从业资格证号：F03087820 投资咨询证号：Z0019508 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 01 PARTONE 主要观点及策略概述 棉花：需求阶段性改善，关注供应端潜在利多 【棉花（CF)】 需求阶段性改善，关注供应端潜在利多 国贸期货农产品研究中心 2025-12-01 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议，期市有风险，投资需谨慎 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供给 | 偏多 | 目前仍处于新棉加工检验集中上量期间，预计持续至四季度末，新棉集中上市对现货的卖压还在持续。市场预期明年1-2月中央一号文件将下调未来三年的 棉花目标直补价格，明年3月国内外种植意向面积也有调降可能，4月是国内产区天气季节性炒作窗口，金三银四是传统需求旺季。 | | 需求 | 偏多 | 目前下游纱厂原料库存偏低，补库意愿较为积极，同时在当前期现估值偏低的大背景下，四季度末至明年一季度初的春节前，季节性节前补 ...

LL : 500 - R = 12 17 国贸期货有限公司 流的衍生品综合服务商 司不少年 市 市 官 方 网 服 线 站 需 有 谨 风 www.itf.com.cn 400-8888-598 慎 险 2025/12/1 ,数据 国贸期货研究院 投资咨询号:Z0015194 从业资格号:F3042528 农产品研究中心 杨璐琳 纸浆价格数据 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 | | | 2025年11月28日 | 日环比 | 周环比 | | | 2025年11月28日 | 日环比 | 周环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货价格 | SP2601 | 5198 | 0. 27% | -0.57% | 现货价格 | 针叶浆银星 | 5400 | 0. 00% | -0.92% | | (元/吨) | SP2512 | 4704 | 0. 73% | -1.71% | (元/吨) | 针叶浆俄针 | 5170 | 0. 00% | -0. 58% | | | SP2605 | 5248 | 0.2 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The current market mainly focuses on demand changes, with weekly demand remaining stable and prices being supported. In the medium - term, due to the release of energy storage demand, prices tend to rise, but there is downward pressure on prices in the short - term [3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Lithium Compounds - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate has an average price of 93,750 yuan, up 450 yuan; SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate has an average price of 91,300 yuan, up 450 yuan [1] Futures Contracts - Lithium carbonate 2512 has a closing price of 94,560 yuan, down 0.32%; lithium carbonate 2601 has a closing price of 94,640 yuan, down 0.36%; lithium carbonate 2602 has a closing price of 94,700 yuan, down 0.5%; lithium carbonate 2603 has a closing price of 94,800 yuan, down 0.59%; lithium carbonate 2604 has a closing price of 96,260 yuan, down 0.84% [1] Lithium Ore - Lithium spodumene concentrate (CIF China) has a price of 1,150 yuan, up 24 yuan; lithium mica (Li20: 1.5% - 2.0%) has a price of 1,665 yuan; lithium mica (Li20: 2.0% - 2.5%) has a price of 2,600 yuan, up 10 yuan; phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li20: 6% - 7%) has a price of 9,125 yuan, up 225 yuan; phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li20: 7% - 8%) has a price of 10,525 yuan, up 275 yuan [1][2] Cathode Materials - The average price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) is 39,340 yuan, up 110 yuan; the average price of ternary material 811 (polycrystalline/power type) is 161,700 yuan; the average price of ternary material 523 (single - crystal/power type) is 144,400 yuan, up 100 yuan; the average price of ternary material 613 (single - crystal/power type) is 144,650 yuan, up 100 yuan [2] Price Differences - The difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 2,450 yuan; the difference between battery - grade lithium carbonate and the main contract is - 2,670 yuan, down 150 yuan; the difference between the near - month and the first - continuous contract is - 80 yuan, down 40 yuan; the difference between the near - month and the second - continuous contract is - 140 yuan, up 20 yuan [2] Inventory - The total inventory (weekly, tons) is 115,968 tons, down 2,452 tons; the inventory of smelters (weekly, tons) is 24,324 tons, down 1,780 tons; the inventory of downstream (weekly, tons) is 41,984 tons, down 2,452 tons; the inventory of others (weekly, tons) is 49,660 tons, up 1,780 tons; the registered warehouse receipts (daily, tons) is 5,441 tons, down 21,340 tons [2] Profit Estimation - The cash cost of externally purchased lithium spodumene concentrate is 93,461 yuan, with a profit of - 1,012 yuan; the cash cost of externally purchased lithium mica concentrate is 94,750 yuan, with a profit of - 4,604 yuan [3] Industry News - This week, lithium carbonate production decreased by 265 tons and inventory decreased by 2,452 tons; the national new - type energy storage installed capacity exceeds 100 million kilowatts, 30 times that at the end of the "13th Five - Year Plan", accounting for over 40% of the global total installed capacity [3] Market Expectation - The market expects that the permit for Ningde Times' Xiawo Mine will be issued in mid - January at the latest, and possibly in December at the earliest, and the subsequent impact on the ore price will gradually decrease [3]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【油脂周报（P&Y&OI)】 国贸期货 农产品研究中心 2025-12-01 陈凡生 从业资格号：F03117830 投资咨询号：Z0022681 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 02 PART TWO 行情回顾 油脂：天气及政策扰动较多，观望为主 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供给 | 中性偏空 | （1）马来棕榈油产地库存高位、国内四季度到港预期增加；（2）国内四季度去库预期仍在；（3）菜油近端供给或迎来补充。 | | 需求 | 观望 | （1）产地方面印尼生柴政策积极推进中，B40带来支撑、但B50落地时间较远难带来驱动；（2）原定10月31日敲定的生柴RVO未落定，观望；（3）豆 油国内消费稳定、另有出口端支撑；（4）菜油冬季消费旺季在即。 | | 库存 | 观望 | 国内油脂总库存仍处高位，菜油因原料短缺持续去库，棕榈油因贸易商大量买船有补库预期，豆油则需关注美豆进口后的去向（国储/商 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 债期中枢小幅下移 樊梦真 从业资格证号：F3035483 投资咨询证号 ：Z0014706 报告日期：2025-12-1 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 01 PART ONE 主要观点 周度行情一览 • 上周国债期货周初表现相对平稳，但周三行情出现显著转折，国债期货尾盘大幅下跌，长期限合约的跌幅明显大于短期合约。具体来看，30年期国债期货主力 合约单日跌幅达0.86%，10年期、5年期和2年期主力合约跌幅分别为0.36%、0.22%和0.05%。这一波下跌主要由消息面因素驱动，核心扰动在于周三市场传 出"本月央行购债规模仅有200亿元"的信息，这显著低于市场此前对于央行重启国债买卖操作规模的预期，对市场情绪造成冲击。此外，当日出现的基金大 额赎回现象，进一步加剧了市场的抛压，特别是对利率弹性更大的30年期国债期货被部分机构用于对冲操作，导致其减仓明显且跌幅最大。市场低波动的背景 和脆弱的交投情绪是放大跌幅的重要环境因素。在周三大幅调整之前，国债市场已连续数周处于低波动率的横盘状态，缺乏明确的 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【纯苯&苯乙烯周报】 海外汽油裂差调整，辛烷值组分有所走弱 国贸期货 能源化工研究中心 2025-12-01 国贸期货研究院 能源化工研究中心：陈胜 从业资格证号：F3066728 投资咨询证号：Z0017251 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 苯乙烯：调油料有所走弱，纯苯苯乙烯价格震荡运行 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供给 | 偏多 | 关于苯乙烯经济学，苯乙烯与石脑油价差约为225美元，苯乙烯与苯的价差更为坚挺，为130美元，非一体化装置经济效益仍然非常负面。 | | 需求 | 偏空 | 截至2025年11月24日，江苏纯苯港口样本商业库存总量：16.4万吨，较上期库存14.7万吨累库1.7万吨，环比上升11.56%；较去年同期库存12.50万吨累库 3.9万吨，同比上升31.20%。供给端检修传闻有所增加，海外由于衍生品的低开工率，需求依然不佳。 | | 库存 | 中性 | 截至2025 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, domestic commodities rebounded with fluctuations, and most varieties in the industrial and agricultural product sectors rebounded. The market's expectation of a December interest rate cut significantly increased, Sino-US relations continued to ease, and geopolitical situations had an impact on international oil prices [3]. - Commodities will maintain a volatile range with differentiated trends among varieties. Currently, macro factors are mixed, and there are uncertainties regarding the December interest rate cut, the domestic economic slowdown, and geopolitical changes [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs PART ONE: Main Views - **Review**: Domestic commodities rebounded with fluctuations this week. The expectation of a December interest rate cut rose, Sino-US relations improved, and geopolitical situations affected oil prices [3]. - **Overseas**: Fed officials' dovish remarks increased the probability of a December interest rate cut from 43% to 80%. The US economy shows "K-shaped differentiation," and consumer spending may weaken in Q4. There are developments in the Ukraine peace plan, which affected oil prices [3]. - **Domestic**: From January to October, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 1.9% year-on-year, with different growth rates in different sectors. China's foreign direct investment maintained resilient growth from January to October [3]. - **Commodity Views**: Commodities will maintain a volatile range due to mixed macro factors, including interest rate cut uncertainty, domestic economic slowdown, and geopolitical changes [3]. PART TWO: Overseas Situation Analysis - Fed officials' remarks increased the market's expectation of a December interest rate cut. The US economic activity changed little, consumer spending weakened, and there were developments in the Ukraine peace plan affecting oil prices [3]. PART THREE: Domestic Situation Analysis - From January to October, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 1.9% year-on-year, with different growth rates in different sectors. China's foreign direct investment maintained resilient growth from January to October [3][21][25]. PART FOUR: High-Frequency Data Tracking - Data on开工率 of polyester产业链 and高炉开工率, prices of POY and PTA, and agricultural product prices are presented, showing certain trends and changes [34][41][43].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The weakening fundamentals of logs have been priced in the market, and the current valuation is low. It is expected to fluctuate at a low level [4]. - Log futures are expected to fluctuate at a low level, as the spot price fundamentals continue to weaken, the spot price has dropped to the lowest level of the year, the fourth - quarter shipment is expected to increase, and the median of the December foreign quotation is 116 US dollars [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Viewpoints and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: From November 24 - 30, 2025, the number of pre - arriving New Zealand log ships at 13 Chinese ports was 6, a decrease of 7 from the previous week, a week - on - week decrease of 54%. The total arrival volume was about 217,000 cubic meters, a decrease of 201,000 cubic meters from the previous week, a week - on - week decrease of 48% [4]. - **Demand**: From November 17 - 23, 2025, the average daily outbound volume of coniferous logs at 13 ports in 7 Chinese provinces was 64,400 cubic meters, a decrease of 1.83% from the previous week [4]. - **Inventory**: As of November 21, 2025, the total domestic coniferous log inventory was 3.03 million cubic meters, an increase of 80,000 cubic meters from the previous week, a week - on - week increase of 2.71% [4]. - **Valuation**: The current log price is lower than the delivery cost, and the valuation is low [4]. - **Investment View**: The weakening fundamentals of logs have been priced in the market, and the current valuation is low. It is expected to fluctuate at a low level. The trading strategy for both single - side and arbitrage is not provided, and attention should be paid to the domestic demand situation [4]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Review - **Futures Price**: Log futures fluctuated at a low level this week. The spot price fundamentals continued to weaken, and the spot price dropped to the lowest level of the year. The December foreign quotation had a large span, with a median of 116 US dollars. The fourth - quarter shipment was expected to increase. Overall, the log futures and spot prices were expected to fluctuate at a low level [8]. - **Futures Position**: As of November 28, 2025, the total position of log futures contracts was 24,241 lots, a 2.2% increase from the previous week. The position of the main log futures contract 2601 was 16,638 lots, a 5.4% decrease from the previous week [13]. - **Spot Price**: As of November 28, 2025, in Shandong, the prices of 3.9 - meter small A/medium A/large A radiata pine were 690/750/850 yuan/m³, and the prices of 5.9 - meter small A/medium A/large A were 730/770/940 yuan/m³. In Jiangsu, the prices of 3.9 - meter small A/medium A/large A radiata pine were 690/750/800 yuan/m³, and the prices of 5.9 - meter small A/medium A/large A were 730/770/840 yuan/m³ [14]. 3.3 Log Supply and Demand Fundamental Data - **Import Volume**: In October 2025, China's total coniferous log import volume was about 1.9078 million cubic meters, a month - on - month decrease of 4.67% and a year - on - year decrease of 7.14%. From January - October 2025, China's total coniferous log import volume was about 19.9238 million cubic meters, a year - on - year decrease of 8.04%. In October 2025, China's total coniferous log imports from New Zealand were about 1.4958 million cubic meters, a month - on - month decrease of 0.23% and a year - on - year increase of 12.47%. From January - October 2025, China's total coniferous log imports from New Zealand were about 15.0078 million cubic meters, a year - on - year increase of 1.80% [19]. - **New Zealand Shipment**: In October 2025, about 54 New Zealand log ships left the port, an increase of 8 from the previous month. The total shipment volume was about 2.013 million cubic meters, a 14% increase from 1.766 million cubic meters in September. Among them, 41 ships were sent to China, with a shipment volume of about 1.502 million cubic meters, accounting for 75%, a 2% increase from 1.472 million cubic meters in September [22]. - **Import Cost and Profit**: As of December 2025, the CFR quotation of radiata pine was between 112 - 119 US dollars/JASm³, equivalent to 780 - 825 yuan/m³ in RMB, and the import profit was about - 45 yuan/m³. In November 2025, the AWG price at the New Zealand port warehouse was 126 New Zealand dollars/JASm³, the export cost was about 111 US dollars/JASm³, and the export profit was about 8.8 New Zealand dollars/JAS/m³ [26]. - **Domestic Inventory**: As of November 21, 2025, the total domestic coniferous log inventory was 3.03 million cubic meters, a 2.71% increase from the previous week. The total coniferous log inventory at Shandong ports was 2,065,000 cubic meters, a 5.68% increase from the previous week. The total coniferous log inventory at Jiangsu ports was 831,777 cubic meters, a 0.57% decrease from the previous week [29]. - **Domestic Outbound Volume**: From November 17 - 23, 2025, the average daily outbound volume of coniferous logs at 13 ports in 7 Chinese provinces was 64,400 cubic meters, a 1.83% decrease from the previous week. The average daily outbound volume of coniferous logs at Shandong ports was 35,900 cubic meters, a 2.18% decrease from the previous week. The average daily outbound volume of coniferous logs at Jiangsu ports was 23,600 cubic meters, a 3.28% decrease from the previous week [32]. - **Wooden Square Price and Processing Profit**: As of November 28, 2025, the wooden square price in Shandong was 1250 yuan/m³, with no change from the previous week. The wooden square price in Jiangsu was 1260 yuan/m³, with no change from the previous week. The processing profit in Shandong was - 3.8 yuan/m³, with no change from the previous week. The processing profit in Jiangsu was - 9.2 yuan/m³, with no change from the previous week [35].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【合成橡胶投资周报】 主流供价大幅下调，BR维持低位震荡运行 国贸期货 能源化工研究中心 2025-12-1 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 11 31 -2 16% 70 97 2 82 -3 37% 70 19 （1）上周国内丁二烯产量 万吨（ ），产能利用率为 %；高顺顺丁产量 万吨（ ），产能利用率为 %； | . | | | 供给 | 中性 | （2）丁二烯方面，周内南京诚志、斯尔邦、燕山石化、广州石化等装置维持停车状态，上海石化一套、茂名石化2#以及中化泉州石化装置陆续停车检修， | | | | | | 同时盛虹炼化降负，影响产量环比下降；顺丁橡胶方面，茂名石化顺丁装置常规检修，振华新材料、浙江石化顺丁橡胶装置重启后预计逐步恢复产出。 | | | | | | （1）半钢胎市场，周期内半钢雪地胎市场成交一般，社会库存充足，降雪天气稀少，需求无明显提升，渠道库存消化缓慢，补货意愿较低；四季胎方面， | | | | 需求 | 中性 | 整体交投延续平淡为主，市场需求 ...