Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Gasoline crack spreads have declined, and gasoline blending performance has weakened [2] - The economic performance of the PX industrial chain is significantly differentiated. The PX-naphtha price spread has widened to $252, reflecting raw material cost pressure, while the by-product benzene price has dropped significantly, causing the PX-benzene price spread to only slightly increase to $210, weakening the overall profit of the integrated aromatics unit [2] - PX costs are high and PTA profits are under pressure, but integrated enterprises have significantly improved economic benefits due to their raw material self-sufficiency advantage [2] - New polyester installations have been put into production, pushing the polyester load to remain at a high level. PTA consumption is close to the historical high set in May. Although domestic demand has weakened seasonally, polyester factories have low inventory levels and low willingness to cut production. The cancellation of India's BIS certification is expected to drive export growth, providing additional support for demand [2][3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Spot Price Changes - PTA spot price decreased from 4640 to 4610, a decrease of 30 [2] - MEG domestic price decreased from 3631 to 3603, a decrease of 28 [2] - 1.4D direct-spun polyester staple fiber price decreased from 6355 to 6305, a decrease of 50 [2] - Polyester bottle chip prices in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang markets decreased, with the average price down 10 yuan/ton from the previous working day [2] Futures and Basis Changes - PTA closing price decreased from 4664 to 4614, a decrease of 50 [2] - MEG closing price increased from 3599 to 3627, an increase of 28 [2] - Short fiber basis increased from 107 to 130, an increase of 23 [2] - The 1-2 spread increased from 6 to 14, an increase of 8 [2] Cash Flow and Processing Fee Changes - Polyester staple fiber cash flow increased from 240 to 246, an increase of 6 [2] - Bottle chip spot processing fee increased from 505 to 512, an increase of 7 [2] - T32S pure polyester yarn processing fee increased from 3925 to 3975, an increase of 50 [2] - Polyester-cotton yarn profit increased from 1556 to 1590, an increase of 33 [2] - Hollow short fiber 6 - 15D cash flow increased from 656 to 681, an increase of 25 [2] Operating Rate and Sales Volume Changes - Direct-spun short fiber load (weekly) increased from 88.37% to 89.32%, an increase of 0.95% [3] - Polyester staple fiber sales volume increased from 55.00% to 56.00%, an increase of 1.00% [3] - Polyester yarn operating rate (weekly) remained unchanged at 66.00% [3] - Regenerated cotton-type load index (weekly) remained unchanged at 51.10% [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The demand from the terminal (energy storage + new energy vehicles) remains strong during the peak season, the production schedule of the material end is basically flat, and the chain of social inventory movement from "upstream - downstream - terminal" is smooth. In terms of supply, the production schedule in December has a slight increase, and the tight spot supply of spodumene restricts the large - scale resumption of production on the supply side. Overall, demand provides medium - term support for the lower price of lithium carbonate, but there is significant pressure near the key level of 100,000 [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Lithium Compounds - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate has an average price of 94,500 with a rise of 2,500; SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate has an average price of 92,000 with a rise of 2,000 [1] Lithium Ore - Lithium spodumene concentrate (CIF China) has an average price of 1,220 with a rise of 10; lithium mica (Li20:1.5% - 2.0%) has an average price of 1,680 with a rise of 15; lithium mica (Li20:2.0% - 2.5%) has an average price of 2,605 with a rise of 15; phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li20:6% - 7%) has an average price of 9,175 with a rise of 115; phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li20:7% - 8%) has an average price of 10,450 with a rise of 175 [1][2] Cathode Materials - The average price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) is 39,520 with a rise of 240; the average price of ternary material 811 (polycrystalline/power type) is 162,350 with a rise of 250; the average price of ternary material 523 (single - crystal/power type) is 145,550 with a rise of 400; the average price of ternary material 613 (single - crystal/power type) is 145,250 with a rise of 300 [2] Price Spreads - The price spread between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 2,500; the price spread between battery - grade lithium carbonate and the main contract is - 3,220 with a change of 2,160; the price spread between the near - month and the first - continuous contract is - 380 with a change of - 200; the price spread between the near - month and the second - continuous contract is - 240 with a change of 20 [2] Inventory - The total inventory (weekly, tons) is 111,469 with a decrease of 2,133; the inventory of smelters (weekly, tons) is 19,161 with a decrease of 1,606; the inventory of downstream (weekly, tons) is 42,738 with a decrease of 957; the inventory of others (weekly, tons) is 49,570 with an increase of 430; the registered warehouse receipts (daily, tons) is 15,050 with an increase of 300 [2] Profit Estimation - The cash cost of purchasing spodumene concentrate externally is 97,832, and the profit is - 4,649; the cash cost of purchasing lithium mica concentrate externally is 94,715, and the profit is - 3,869 [3] Industry News - The installed capacity of new - type energy storage in China has exceeded 100 million kilowatts, which is more than 30 times that at the end of the "13th Five - Year Plan" and accounts for more than 40% of the global total installed capacity. During the peak summer period this year, the peak call of new - type energy storage in China exceeded 30 million kilowatts [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view for both PE and PP is "oscillating", indicating that the short - term market has no obvious driving force and is expected to fluctuate within a certain range [3][5] Core View - The prices of both PE and PP stopped falling and rebounded after the SASAC issued a document to resist involution. Multiple factors such as supply, demand, inventory, cost, and profit affect the market trends of PE and PP, and the overall short - term market is in an oscillating state [2][5] Summary by Related Catalogs PE Fundamental Changes - **Supply**: This week, China's polyethylene production totaled 684,800 tons, a 2.17% increase from last week. The capacity utilization rate of Chinese polyethylene production enterprises was 84.11%, a 0.06 - percentage - point increase from the previous period. Although there were new device overhauls, some existing devices restarted [3] - **Demand**: The average operating rate of downstream products of Chinese LLDPE/LDPE and polyethylene decreased compared with the previous period. In October, China's polyethylene imports decreased year - on - year and month - on - month, with different trends in different varieties [3] - **Inventory**: The sample inventory of Chinese polyethylene production enterprises was 470,600 tons, a 3.98% increase from the previous period, and the inventory trend changed from falling to rising [3] - **Cost**: The cost of methanol production increased, while the costs of oil - based, coal - based, ethylene - based, and ethane - based production decreased. The international oil price declined due to factors such as the resumption of production in some Iraqi oil fields and the US promoting peace talks between Russia and Ukraine [3] - **Profit**: The profit of PE was lower than the same period last year [30] - **Import and Export**: PE exports were better than the same period last year [35] PP Fundamental Changes - **Capacity and Production**: This week, China's polypropylene production was 801,300 tons, a 0.68% decrease from last week but an 18.45% increase from the same period last year. The average capacity utilization rate of polypropylene was 78.25%, a 0.64% increase from the previous period [5] - **Inventory**: The total commercial inventory of Chinese polypropylene decreased by 3.60% from the previous period, the port sample inventory increased by 5.25%, and the production enterprise inventory decreased by 4.97% [5] - **Downstream Demand**: The average operating rate of polypropylene increased slightly. The demand for PP products showed structural differentiation. The demand for BOPP films, which are used as packaging materials for food, clothing, and express delivery, was supported [5] - **Cost and Profit**: The profits of oil - based, coal - based, methanol - based, PDH - based, and externally - purchased propylene - based PP all declined. The average weekly profit of Chinese polypropylene imports decreased by 20.41% from last week [5] - **Production Gross Margin**: The profit was similar to the same period last year [85]

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a bearish investment view on LPG, indicating that the current market news is generally "bullish for中下游 PP and propylene, and bearish for upstream crude oil and LPG." The crude oil fundamentals remain loosely and weakly, and the near - term LPG prices are expected to continue the high - level decline trend [5]. 2. Core View of the Report - The LPG market shows a divergence in domestic and international trends, with an overall supply - demand imbalance in the domestic market. The supply has increased due to the production increase of some refineries in South and East China last week. Although the winter heating demand is gradually improving, the economic efficiency of LPG as a cracking raw material has weakened, and the downstream olefin demand is sluggish. The inventory has increased, and the price is expected to continue to decline [5][6]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - The LPG futures main contract trended downward, with a fluctuation range of 4,180 - 4,330 yuan/ton. The international LPG price was still strong, but the international crude oil price fluctuated downward, and the propylene futures price was weak. The domestic PDH plant profit continued to lose money, and the market supply exceeded demand. As of Thursday this week, the basis in East China was 195 yuan/ton, in South China was 200 yuan/ton, and in Shandong was 180 yuan/ton. The lowest deliverable product was in Shandong [6]. 3.2 Supply - Last week, the total LPG commodity volume was about 52.29 million tons, including 21.87 million tons of civil gas, 19.35 million tons of industrial gas, and 17.12 million tons of ether - after C4. The LPG arrival volume was 283.44 million tons. Some refineries in South and East China increased production last week, so the supply increased. There is no news of refinery start - up or shutdown this week, but there are both some plant shutdowns and start - ups, and the domestic commodity volume is expected to change little [5]. 3.3 Demand - The winter heating demand is gradually coming, and the LPG combustion demand is gradually improving, with a slow recovery in demand. However, the absolute value of the PN spread has narrowed, the economic efficiency of LPG as a cracking raw material has weakened, and the substitution effect is limited due to the weak downstream olefin demand. The domestic propylene market has a serious oversupply, and the high - load operation of PDH plants suppresses the procurement demand for raw material propane. The European and American blenders have a strong demand for MTBE driven by the structural shortage of gasoline in the Atlantic Basin. The domestic isobutane dehydrogenation plants are operating at a high start - up rate, and although the profit loss has increased with the rise of raw material prices, the rigid demand is relatively resilient [5]. 3.4 Inventory - Last week, the LPG factory inventory was 201.00 million tons, and the port inventory was 215.20 million tons. Affected by the short - term weakness of international crude oil, the prices in various regions rose first and then fell. Coupled with the supply increase in some regions, downstream buyers chose to wait and see, which led to an increase in factory inventory. At the port, the arrival of ships increased, and the inventory of some ships arriving at the end of last week was reflected this week, with sufficient imported resources. With the continuous arrival of ships, the port shipping volume increased, but the port still showed an inventory accumulation trend [5]. 3.5 Basis and Position - The weekly average basis was 195 yuan/ton in East China, 200 yuan/ton in South China, and 180 yuan/ton in Shandong. The total LPG warehouse receipt volume was 5,476 lots, an increase of 0 lots, and the lowest deliverable location was in Shandong [5][6]. 3.6 Chemical Downstream - The start - up rates of PDH, MTBE, and alkylation were not fully filled in the data. The profits of PDH to propylene, MTBE isomerization, and Shandong alkylation were - 555 yuan/ton, - 172 yuan/ton, and - 484 yuan/ton respectively [5]. 3.7 Valuation - The PG - SC ratio was 1.27, and the PG main - secondary monthly difference was - 1.13% (84 yuan/ton). In the fourth quarter, the gas price was firm, while the crude oil returned to a bearish trend, and the oil - gas cracking spread showed a weakening trend [5]. 3.8 Other Factors - The IEA raised the global oil demand growth forecast for 2026 and slightly narrowed the supply surplus forecast. OPEC+ slightly increased crude oil production in November, and OPEC maintained the global oil demand growth forecasts for 2025 and 2026. The Central Economic Work Conference emphasized the continued implementation of a moderately loose monetary policy, stabilizing the real estate market, and implementing a special action to boost consumption. The Fed cut interest rates in December, and the expectation of further rate cuts in the future has increased, with Morgan and Citi unanimously expecting another rate cut in January [5]. 3.9 Investment Strategy - For single - side trading, it is recommended to wait and see temporarily. For arbitrage, pay attention to the PG3 - 4 reverse spread, long PG and short SC, and long PP and short PG [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view on synthetic rubber is bullish [2]. 2. Core View of the Report - The demand for domestic and overseas tires is decent, and the low - price synthetic rubber triggers a substitution effect. The current spread between synthetic rubber and natural rubber has reached a historical low, and there is limited room for the unilateral price of synthetic rubber and the spread between rubber types to continue falling. The BR on the futures market is in a low - valuation range [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - As of December 11, 2025, the ex - factory price of Sinopec's BR9000 was 10,600 yuan/ton, and that of PetroChina's BR9000 was between 10,600 - 10,700 yuan/ton. During the reporting period, the production and capacity utilization rate of high - cis butadiene rubber in China decreased slightly due to the maintenance of plants. The rising spot price of butadiene provided some bottom support for the price of butadiene rubber. Affected by external news such as the conflict between Thailand and Cambodia and the US interest rate cut in the natural rubber market, the low - price offer of the butadiene market gradually increased. However, the spot market had sufficient supply and high theoretical production profit, so downstream buyers resisted high - price offers, and middlemen faced pressure in selling [4]. 3.2 Factors Affecting Butadiene Rubber 3.2.1 Supply - Last week, the domestic butadiene production was [unspecified] tons with a capacity utilization rate of [unspecified]%, and the high - cis butadiene rubber production was [unspecified] tons with a capacity utilization rate of [unspecified]%. In the butadiene segment, plants of Nanjing Chengzhi, Sierbang, Yanshan Petrochemical, and Guangzhou Petrochemical remained shut down, and some plants of Shanghai Petrochemical, Maoming Petrochemical, and Sinochem Quanzhou Petrochemical carried out maintenance, leading to a decline in production. In the butadiene rubber segment, Yulong Petrochemical restarted production, and the supply of high - cis butadiene rubber in China remained sufficient [2]. 3.2.2 Demand - In the semi - steel tire market, trading was dull, and prices were weak. Some enterprises offered discounts to boost purchases, but the effect was limited as demand was flat, and agents mainly digested existing inventories and postponed replenishment. In the all - steel tire market, the market was cold, and it was the off - season. The trading volume further weakened, with the southern region performing better than the northern region. Sales in many southern regions decreased by about 15%, and some areas in the northwest and northeast saw a sharp decline. Agents had sufficient inventories and low purchasing enthusiasm [2]. 3.2.3 Inventory - Last week, the butadiene port inventory was 411,000 tons, a 13.11% week - on - week decrease; the inventory of high - cis butadiene rubber enterprises and traders was 323,300 tons, a 0.34% week - on - week decrease. The enterprise inventory of butadiene decreased by 8.22% week - on - week, and the port inventory decreased by 12.65% week - on - week. For butadiene rubber, due to continuous price - pressing by downstream buyers, the production enterprise inventory increased, while the trading enterprise inventory decreased slightly [2]. 3.2.4 Basis - The basis of butadiene rubber in North China was - 670 yuan/ton, in East China was - 520 yuan/ton, and in South China was - 470 yuan/ton [2]. 3.2.5 Spread/Price Ratio - The RU - BR spread was 4,510 yuan/ton (a 3.11% decrease), the NR - BR spread was 1,610 yuan/ton (a 1.53% decrease), and the BR - SC price ratio was 0.77% [2]. 3.2.6 Profit - The production gross profit of butadiene through oxidative dehydrogenation was - 1,764 yuan/ton, and that through C4 extraction was 202.23 yuan/ton. The production gross profit of butadiene rubber was 787 yuan/ton, with a gross profit margin of 8.02% [2]. 3.2.7 Geopolitical and Macroeconomic Factors - The IEA raised the global oil demand growth forecast for 2026 and narrowed the supply surplus forecast slightly. OPEC+ slightly increased crude oil production in November and maintained the global oil demand growth forecast for 2025 and 2026. The Central Economic Work Conference emphasized the continuation of a moderately loose monetary policy, efforts to stabilize the real estate market, and the implementation of a special consumption - boosting action. The Fed cut interest rates in December, and the expectation of further rate cuts increased. The conflict between Thailand and Cambodia reignited, and the impact of weather disturbances declined [2]. 3.3 Trading Strategies - Unilateral trading: No specific strategy. Arbitrage: Pay attention to going long on BR and short on NR/RU. Key risks to monitor include downstream demand, cost changes, plant maintenance, and geopolitical situations [2]. 3.4 Price Data - The report provides detailed price data of synthetic rubber, natural rubber, and related products, including ex - factory prices, market prices, and their daily and weekly changes [6][7]. 3.5 Plant Maintenance Data - The report lists the maintenance data of butadiene and high - cis butadiene rubber plants in China in 2025, including the production enterprises, maintenance capacities, shutdown times, and startup times [9]. 3.6 Market Seasonal Charts - The report presents multiple seasonal charts, such as the BR spread and basis seasonal charts, butadiene price seasonal charts (domestic and international), production and inventory seasonal charts of butadiene, butadiene rubber, and styrene - butadiene rubber, as well as production, start - up, and inventory seasonal charts of downstream products like tires and conveyor belts [10][26][31]

TG国贸期货 ,数据 国贸期货研究院 投资咨询号:Z0015194 从业资格号:F3042528 农产品研究中心 杨璐琳 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 | | | 2025年12月14日 | 日环比 | 周环比 | | | 2025年12月14日 | 日环比 | 周环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货价格 | SP2601 | 5454 | -0. 98% | 0. 07% | 现货价格 | 针叶浆银星 | 5600 | 0.00% | 0. 00% | | (元/吨) | SP2609 | 5540 | -0. 82% | 1. 28% | (元/吨) | 针叶浆俄针 | 5250 | 0. 00% | 0. 00% | | | SP2605 | 5534 | -0.93% | 0. 80% | | 阔叶浆金鱼 | 4500 | 0. 00% | 0. 00% | | | | 本期价格 | 上期价格 | 月环比 | | | 本期价格 | 上期价格 | 月坏比 | | 外盘报价 | 智利银 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - On December 11, the A - share market fluctuated and declined, with over 4300 stocks falling. The Shanghai Composite Index closed down 0.7% at 873.32 points, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 1.27%, the ChiNext Index fell 1.41%, the North - bound 50 rose 8.84%, the Science and Technology Innovation 50 fell 1.55%, the Wind All - A fell 1.1%, the Wind A500 fell 0.95%, and the CSI A500 fell 0.84%. The A - share market traded 1.89 trillion yuan throughout the day, compared with 1.79 trillion yuan the previous day [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Index Quotes | Index | Turnover (billion yuan) | Closing Price | Change (%) | Volume (billion) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SSE 50 | 2977.0319 | 969.81 | - 0.39 | 39.40 | | CSI 300 | 4552.1848 | 4324.31 | - 1.30 | 168.42 | | CSI 1000 | 7311.9952 | 3819.34 | - 0.86 | 234.02 | [3] 3.2 CFFEX Stock Index Options Trading Situation | Index | Call Option Volume (million) | Put Option Volume (million) | Volume PCR | Call Option Open Interest (million) | Put Option Open Interest (million) | Open Interest PCR | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SSE 50 | 2.58 | 1.58 | 0.63 | 4.22 | 2.91 | 0.69 | | CSI 300 | 6.86 | 0.59 | 0.09 | 8.82 | 10.93 | 1.24 | | CSI 1000 | 13.47 | 0.78 | 0.06 | 24.00 | 17.45 | 0.73 | [3] 3.3 Volatility Analysis - **SSE 50 Volatility**: Analyzed historical volatility and volatility cone, and provided the volatility smile curve of the next - month at - the - money implied volatility [3][4] - **CSI 300 Volatility**: Analyzed historical volatility and volatility cone, and provided the volatility smile curve of the next - month at - the - money implied volatility [3][4] - **CSI 1000 Volatility**: Analyzed historical volatility and volatility cone, and provided the volatility smile curve of the next - month at - the - money implied volatility [3][4]

| | 锂云母 (Li20:1.5%-2.0%) | 1665 | 25 | ■ 级 使 酸 一 半 均 价 == 田洲级使酸锂一半均价 电硕-工候价差 元/吨 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 锂云母 (Li20:2.0%-2.5%) | 2590 | 25 | 碳酸锂注册仓单(吨) | | | 磷锂铝石 (Li20:6%-7%) | 9000 | 735 | | | | 磷锂铝石 (Li20:7%-8%) | 10275 | 250 | | | | 正极材料 | 平均价 | 涨跌 | | | | 磷酸铁锂(动力型) | 39280 | 195 | | | | 三元材料811(多晶/动力型) | 162100 | 200 | | | | 三元材料523(单晶/动力型) | 145150 | 300 | | | | 三元材料613(单晶/动力型) | 144950 | 200 | | | | 名称 | 现值 | 変化值 | | | | 电碳-工碳 | 2500 | 50 | | | 价 差 | 电碳-主力合约 | -5380 | -2100 | 200000 | | ...

Group 1: Shipping Derivatives Data - Current values of Shanghai export container freight rate indices include 1398 for the comprehensive index SCFI, 1115 for the index CCFI, etc. [5] - The percentage changes of the indices range from -5.02% (SCFI - West US) to 3.05% (SCFI - Mediterranean) [5] - For contracts like EC2506, EC2608, etc., the current values, previous values, and percentage changes are presented, with changes ranging from -0.33% (EC2610) to 1.43% (EC5602) [5] - The current and previous values of contract positions and their changes are also provided, such as a 22 - unit increase in EC2606 position [5] - The current and previous values of month - spreads and their changes are given, e.g., a 11.8 - unit increase in the 02 - 04 month - spread [5] Group 2: Market News and Impact - CMA CGM's decision to change the INDAMEX route to pass through the Suez Canal is a significant development signal for container ships to return to the Red Sea route [6] - The traffic volume through the Bab el Mande Strait has reached the highest level since January 2024 [6] - In the FEWB route, the shipping companies strictly control capacity in December, with a blank - sailing rate of only 0.9%, and other factors lead to high freight rates during Christmas and New Year [6] - In the TAWB route, ports in Northern Europe and the Mediterranean are severely congested due to labor disputes, and there are shortages of containers and trailers in many European countries [6] Group 3: EC Market - The EC market is in a volatile state. The spot prices in early and late December are provided, and MSK plans to raise the price to 3500 in January [7] - The recent market is mainly affected by index fluctuations, long - short gaming, and the transition of the main contract. It shows a volatile pattern and is sensitive to short - term factors [9] - Future focus should be on the actual freight rates in late December and the forward rates in early January. The short - term bearish and long - term bullish expectations are in a game [9] - The short - term strategy is to wait and see [10]

投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 1数据日报 国贸期货研究院 农产品研究中心 黄向岚 投资咨询号: Z0021658 从业资格号:F03110419 2025/12/12 ==== 18/19 ===== 22/23 ----- 19/20 ----- 23/24 == ===== 20/21 —— 24/25 - 25/26 RM1-5 78 1500 9 1200 价差数据 豆粕-菜粕 595 10 900 现货价差(广东) 300 豆粕-菜粕 674 28 盘面价差(主力) 05/25 06/25 04/24 07/26 08/26 09/26 10/27 11/27 12/28 03/24 升贴水-连续月 产地 美元兑人民币汇率 盘面榨利(元/吨) 涨跌 (美分/蒲) #N/A 22. 00 巴西 0 143 2025年大豆CNF升贴水走势图-连续月 (美分/蒲式耳) 2025年进口大享盘面毛利(元/吨) ----- 巴南1月 ----- 巴南2月 ----- 巴南3月 ----- 巴南4月 ----- 巴南6月 ----- 巴西6月 ---- 巴西1月 ===== 巴西4月 === 巴西 ...