投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【有色金属周报】 市场风险偏好向好，有色板块明显走高 国贸期货 有色金属研究中心 2025-12-08 分析师：方富强 从业资格证号：F3043701 投资咨询证号：Z0015300 分析师：谢灵 从业资格证号：F3040017 投资咨询证号：Z0015788 助理分析师：林静妍 从业资格证号：F03131200 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 目录 01 有色金属价格监测 02 铜（CU） 03 锌（ZN） 04 镍（NI） 不锈钢（SS) 01 PART ONE 有色金属价格监测 有色金属价格监测 有色金属收盘价格监控 | 有色金属价格监测 | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | | 有色金属收盘价格监控 | | | | | | | 品 种 | 单 位 | 现 值 | 日涨跌幅 | 周涨跌幅 | 年涨跌幅 | 品 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【玻璃纯碱（ 】 情绪再度回落，价格承压为主 国贸期货 黑色金属研究中心 2025-12-08 黄志鸿 从业资格证号：F3051824 投资咨询证号：Z0015761 01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 玻璃:供给减量，价格有支撑 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供给 | 中性 | 产量下降。本周全国浮法玻璃日产量为15.5万吨，比27日-1.4%。行业开工率为73.4%，比27日-0.92个百分点；行业产能利用率为77.25%，比27 日-1.33个百分点。本周条3条生产线放水冷修，1条生产线点火，产量延续下降趋势。下周暂无生产线存在点火或者冷修计划，产量预计持稳。 | | 需求 | 中性 | 需求有支撑，近期局部供应减量影响下，原片企业阶段性出货良好，但终端需求支撑有限，订单排产情况不佳拖累业者信心，当前市场以刚性 | | | | 需求为主，对整体产销的实际支撑较为有限。 | | 库存 | 中性 | 库存去化，企业库存5944.2万重箱，环比-292万重箱，环比-4.68%，同比+23.25%。折库 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【新能源周报】 12月排产更新，商品价格承压 国贸期货贵金属与新能源研究中心 2025-12-8 分析师：白素娜 从业资格证号：F3023916 投资咨询证号：Z0013700 助理分析师：陈宇森 从业资格证号： F03123927 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 目录 01 02 工业硅（SI） 多晶硅（PS ） 碳酸锂（LC ） 01 PART ONE 工业硅（SI） 多晶硅（PS） 工业硅 ：供给重心向西北转移 ，硅价上方压力较大 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议，期市有风险，投资需谨慎 影响因素 驱动 主要逻辑 供给端 偏多 （1）全国周产8.13 万吨，环比-8.69%；全国开炉238台，环比-19台。 （2）主产区：新疆地区周产4.92 万吨，环比-2.19%，开炉数环比一致。云南地区周产0.55 万吨，环比-19.77%，开炉数环比-11台。四川地区 周产0.25 万吨，环比-60.48%，开炉数环比-7台。 （3）11月产量40.1 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information found Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Gasoline crack spreads have declined, and gasoline blending has weakened. The PX market has remained firm despite multiple factors. The increase in PX price is mainly supported by gasoline blending value and the stabilization and recovery of by - product benzene price. The PX - naphtha spread has further widened to $256, while the spread between PX and mixed xylene is still under pressure, only slightly above $100, which restricts the space for increasing efficiency through PX production. Domestic restructuring unit maintenance rumors are positive for PX, and some South Korean producers are even considering taking offline toluene - route PX units in December. Domestic PTA manufacturers benefit from the removal of PTA import BIS certification restrictions in India, improving export prospects and boosting PX procurement sentiment. The strong PX price significantly benefits the PTA market. Currently, the PTA supply side has tightened slightly, while the polyester industry's operating rate has remained stable, with the overall load maintained above 90%. Benefiting from the positive adjustment of trade policies in some overseas countries, the export inquiry of polyester products has increased significantly, and the domestic polyester export outlook is optimistic. The costs of bottle chips and short fibers follow suit [2] Group 3: Summary by Related Indicators Price Changes - PTA spot price decreased from 4690 to 4670, a decrease of 20 [2] - MEG domestic price decreased from 3822 to 3759, a decrease of 63 [2] - PTA closing price decreased from 4724 to 4678, a decrease of 46 [2] - MEG closing price decreased from 3826 to 3723, a decrease of 103 [2] - 1.4D direct - spun polyester staple decreased from 6420 to 6390, a decrease of 30 [2] - Short - fiber basis decreased from 76 to 73, a decrease of 3 [2] - 12 - 1 spread remained unchanged at 108 [2] - 1.4D imitation large - chemical decreased from 5375 to 5350, a decrease of 25 [2] - The spread between 1.4D direct - spun and imitation large - chemical decreased from 1045 to 1040, a decrease of 5 [2] - East China water bottle chips decreased from 5732 to 5709, a decrease of 23 [2] - Hot - filling polyester bottle chips decreased from 5732 to 5709, a decrease of 23 [2] - Carbonated - grade polyester bottle chips decreased from 5832 to 5809, a decrease of 23 [2] - Outer - market water bottle chips decreased from 770 to 760, a decrease of 10 [2] - T32S pure polyester yarn price decreased from 10300 to 10280, a decrease of 20 [2] - Cotton 328 price decreased from 14585 to 14580, a decrease of 5 [2] - Polyester - cotton yarn 65/35 45S price remained unchanged at 16300 [2] - Polyester - cotton yarn profit increased from 1530 to 1552, an increase of 22 [2] - Primary three - dimensional hollow (with silicon) decreased from 7125 to 7085, a decrease of 40 [2] - Hollow short - fiber 6 - 15D cash flow decreased from 635 to 633, a decrease of 2 [2] - Primary low - melting - point short fiber remained unchanged at 7680 [2] Market Conditions - Short - fiber: The main futures of polyester staple fiber fell 58 to 6210. In the spot market, polyester staple fiber manufacturers mainly negotiated prices, and traders' prices declined slightly. Downstream procurement willingness was low, and factory sales were sluggish. The price of 1.56dtex*38mm semi - bright natural white (1.4D) polyester staple fiber in the East China market was 6150 - 6480 RMB for cash on delivery, tax - inclusive self - pick - up; in the North China market, it was 6270 - 6600 RMB for cash on delivery, tax - inclusive delivery; in the Fujian market, it was 6200 - 6380 RMB for cash on delivery, tax - inclusive delivery [2] - Bottle chips: The mainstream negotiation price of polyester bottle chips in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang markets was 5710 - 5830 RMB/ton, with the average price down 10 RMB/ton from the previous working day. PTA and bottle - chip futures fluctuated weakly. The supply - side offers were stable with a slight decline. The market trading atmosphere was cold, and downstream terminal buying enthusiasm was low. The market negotiation focus declined slightly [2] Operating Rates and Sales Ratios - Direct - spun short - fiber load (weekly) increased from 88.37% to 89.32%, an increase of 0.95% [3] - Polyester staple fiber sales ratio increased from 44.00% to 48.00%, an increase of 4.00% [3] - Polyester yarn operating rate (weekly) remained unchanged at 66.00% [3] - Regenerated cotton - type load index (weekly) remained unchanged at 51.10% [3] Processing Fees and Cash Flows - Bottle - chip spot processing fee increased from 442 to 457, an increase of 15 [2] - T32S pure polyester yarn processing fee increased from 3880 to 3890, an increase of 10 [2]

种类 利润估算 外购锂辉石精矿现金成本 94255 H # 利 外购锂辉石精矿利润 -1559 下 外购锂云母精矿现金成本 92638 F 外购锂云母精矿利润 -2247 本周碳酸锂产量+74吨。库存-2363吨 行 小 国家发展改革委：全国新型储能装机超过1亿千瓦，是"十三五"末的30倍以上。11月27日，国家发展改革委召开月度新闻发布会。国家发 展改革委政策研究室副主任李超表示，随着我国风电、光伏等新能源装机规模和比例的不断提高，电力系统调节能力已经成为建设新型电力 统的重要方面。目前，全国新型储能装机超过1亿千瓦，是"十三五"末的30倍以上，占全球总装机比例超过40%。储能设施建设周期短、布局 活、响应速度快、快速承担起电力系统调节功能。今年迎峰度夏期间，全国晚高峰调用新型储能峰值超过3000万千瓦，是三峡水电站满负荷 电功率的1.3倍,相当于重庆电网今夏的负荷峰值,"超级充电宝"为电力顶峰保供提供重要支撑。 H 实方面,终端（储能+新能源车）旺季持续，材料端排产基本持平，社会库存,"上游-下游-终端"移动的链条流畅，供给方面，12月排产小幅 增加，锂辉石现货偏紧限制供给端大幅复产;市场普遍预期视下窝矿 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the report industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - The adjustment of risk factors for insurance companies' related businesses by the National Financial Regulatory Administration has brought incremental funds to the A - share market and boosted market sentiment. Traders can consider gradually establishing long positions during market adjustments and leveraging the discount structure of stock index futures to increase the probability of long - term investment success [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market and Liquidity - Last week, the central bank conducted 663.8 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations in the open market. With 1511.8 billion yuan of reverse repurchase maturing, there was a net withdrawal of 848 billion yuan. Additionally, 1 trillion yuan of 91 - day term repurchase expired, and the central bank conducted 1 trillion yuan of 91 - day term repurchase operations. This week, 663.8 billion yuan of reverse repurchase will mature, with daily maturities of 107.6 billion yuan, 156.3 billion yuan, 79.3 billion yuan, 180.8 billion yuan, and 139.8 billion yuan from Monday to Friday [2][3]. - Interest rate changes: DR001 closed at 1.30 with a 0.06 - basis - point increase; DR007 at 1.44 with a 0.04 - basis - point increase; GC001 at 1.45 with a 25 - basis - point increase; GC007 at 1.51 with a 2 - basis - point increase; SHBOR 3M at 1.58 with no change; LPR 5 - year at 3.50 with no change; 1 - year treasury bond at 1.40 with a 0.5 - basis - point decrease; 5 - year treasury bond at 1.63 with a 1.39 - basis - point decrease; 10 - year treasury bond at 1.85 with a 2.34 - basis - point decrease; 10 - year US treasury bond at 4.14 with a 3 - basis - point increase [3]. Stock Index and Market Performance - Index closing prices and changes: CSI 300 closed at 4585, up 0.84%; SSE 50 at 3002, up 0.93%; CSI 500 at 7098, up 1.21%; CSI 1000 at 7342, up 1.29%. Futures contracts: IF current - month at 4574, up 1.0%; IH current - month at 2997, up 1.0%; IC current - month at 7083, up 1.4%; IM current - month at 7320, up 1.5% [4]. - Trading volume and open interest changes: IF trading volume was 124,819, up 34.8%, and open interest was 277,131, up 5.8%; IH trading volume was 56,681, up 44.3%, and open interest was 99,128, up 13.2%; IC trading volume was 131,971, up 32.2%, and open interest was 260,378, up 6.6%; IM trading volume was 220,452, up 28.1%, and open interest was 376,973, up 5.5% [4]. - Last week, the CSI 300 rose 1.28% to 4584.5; the SSE 50 rose 1.09% to 3002; the CSI 500 rose 0.94% to 7097.8; the CSI 1000 rose 0.11% to 7342.5. Among the Shenwan primary industry indices, non - ferrous metals (5.3%), communication (3.7%), national defense and military industry (2.8%), machinery and equipment (2.8%), and non - bank finance (2.3%) led the gains, while media (- 3.9%), real estate (- 2.2%), food and beverage (- 1.9%), computer (- 1.7%), and textile and apparel (- 1.6%) led the losses. The daily trading volumes of A - shares last week were 1701.6 billion yuan, 1467.1 billion yuan, 1546.5 billion yuan, 1419.2 billion yuan, and 1567.8 billion yuan, with the average daily trading volume decreasing by 24.7 billion yuan compared to the previous week [4]. Futures Premium and Discount Situation - IF premium/discount rates: 3.97% for the current - month contract, 5.48% for the current - quarter contract, 3.77% for the next - quarter contract, and 6.73% for the next - month contract; IH premium/discount rates: 3.47% for the current - month contract, 1.65% for the current - quarter contract, 1.72% for the next - quarter contract, and 4.67% for the next - month contract; IC premium/discount rates: 6.27% (not fully clear from the text); IM premium/discount rates: 12.72% for the current - month contract, 12.35% for the current - quarter contract, 9.40% for the next - quarter contract, and 12.41% for the next - month contract [5].

Group 1: Report's Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The steel market is range - bound and waiting for new drivers. There is a balance between supply and demand in the short - term, with potential for price support at low levels due to possible restocking and pressure at high levels from inventory de - stocking of plates. It's advisable to participate in the market through positions when the basis has a safety margin, with a focus on hot - rolled coils [2]. - The prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese are oscillating with improved sentiment but still lack strong drivers. There is an over - supply situation in the medium - term, with weak demand and high inventory levels, so the prices are under downward pressure [2]. - The coking coal and coke futures have broken down. The first round of coke price cuts has been implemented, and the second round is expected soon. Coking coal prices are weak due to slow downstream restocking. It is recommended to wait and see, especially considering the possible impact of major domestic meetings [2]. - Iron ore prices have fallen after oscillating at the upper limit of the range. The short - term arrival volume has increased, and inventory is expected to continue to accumulate. It is recommended to hold short positions [2]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - On December 5, the closing prices, price changes, and percentage changes of far - month and near - month contracts of various black metal futures such as rebar, hot - rolled coil, coke, and coking coal are presented, along with cross - month spreads, price differences, and profit margins [1]. Spot Market - On December 5, the spot prices and price changes of various black metal products in different regions are provided, including rebar, hot - rolled coil, billet, iron ore, coking coal, and coke, as well as the basis of some products [1]. Market Analysis of Different Products - **Steel**: The spot market was weak over the weekend, and macro factors this week will be the focus of trading. The supply - demand of five steel products was weak last week, with pressure on furnace materials. There may be some restocking in the industry, providing support at low prices. It is recommended to use a range - bound approach for single - side trading and consider cash - and - carry arbitrage for hot - rolled coils or use options strategies to assist in spot procurement and sales [2]. - **Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese**: The prices are oscillating with insufficient drivers. Steel prices are under pressure, steel mill profits are shrinking, and direct demand is expected to weaken. Alloy plants have high production and low profits, with over - supply and high inventory. Investment clients are advised to short, while industrial clients can use options to protect their spot positions [2]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The first round of coke price cuts has been implemented, and the second round is expected soon. Coking coal spot auctions have a high rate of unsold lots, and prices are falling. The futures of coking coal have broken down. It is recommended to wait and see, especially considering the impact of major meetings [2]. - **Iron Ore**: The price has fallen after oscillating at the upper limit. Short - term arrivals have increased, and inventory is expected to accumulate. It is recommended to hold short positions as steel production may be reduced due to low profitability [2].

ITG国贸期货 | | | | | 聚酯数据日报 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | | 投资咨询号:Z0017251 | 2025/12/8 | | | | 能源化工研究中心 | 陈胜 | | 从业资格号:F3066728 | | | 指标 | 2025/12/4 | 2025/12/5 | 变动值 | 行情综述 | | | INE原油(元/桶) | 452.6 | 453. 7 | 1.10 | 成交情况: PTA:盘中原油行情偏弱震荡,PTA供需面暂无最新消 | | SC | PTA-SC(元/陣) | 1434.9 | 1380. 9 | -53.99 | 息,PTA行情微跌。PTA去库存中,现货基差均值上涨 | | | PTA/SC(比价) | 1. 4363 | 1. 4188 | -0. 0174 | | | | CFR中国PX | 845 | 838 | -7 | | | PX | PX-石脑油价差 | 283 | 278 | -5 | | | | PTA主力期价(元/吨) | 4724 | 4678 | -46. ...

ITGE贸期货 ,数据 国贸期货研究院 投资咨询号:Z0015194 从业资格号:F3042528 农产品研究中心 杨璐琳 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 策略:加拿大浆厂出现减产情况,纸浆供给端出现利多因素,同时暂无新仓单注册,近月合约交割资源偏紧，但盘面上 涨到5500元/吨后出现新仓单注册,进一步上涨空间受限。 本报告中的冒息的报干公开可获得的资料，回贸邮货力求准确可复、但不对上述信息的推销性及完整性做任何保证。本报告不构成个人投资融议。也未分对个别投资者帮班的投资目标。 兜 责 路状况或需要，没资需需行判断本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况，据此投资、责任自负。本报告仅向标定客户推进，未经国贸期货股权许可，任何引用、转载以及同第2 IDE 方传播的行为均构成对国贸期货的侵权,我司将视情况追究法律责任。期市有风险，入市需谨慎。 ll C 国贸期货 上升500 - R-2 - 17 国贸期货有限公司 流的衍生品综合服务商 入 期 市 市 线 官 方 网 站 需 有 服 热 M 谨 风 www.itf.com.cn 400-8888-598 慎 险 2025/12/8 纸浆价格数据 | ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【塑料数据周报（PP&PE ）】 国贸期货 能源化工研究中心 2025-12-08 叶海文 从业资格证号：F3071622 投资咨询证号：Z0014205 张国才 从业资格证号：F03133773 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 L L DPE :宏观情绪偏弱，盘面震荡偏弱 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供给 | 中性 | （1）本周，我国聚乙烯产量总计在68.48万吨，较上周增加2.17%。（2）中国聚乙烯生产企业产能利用率84.05%，较上周期减少了0.46个百分点。本周期 | | | | 装置情况来看，周内茂名石化、中化泉州、上海石化等装置存在检修情况，市场存量检修天数增加，因此产能利用率环比上周窄幅下降。 | | | | （1）中国LLDPE/LDPE下游制品平均开工率较前期-0.5%。其中农膜整体开工率较前期-0.9%；PE包装膜开工率较前期-0.2%。（2）中国聚乙烯下游制品 | | 需求 | 偏多 | 平均开工率较前期-0. ...