Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - PTA supply side is contracting, with Ningbo Yisheng Petrochemical Phase 4 reducing its load by 50% until the end of the month. PTA processing fees remain low, and industry profits are still constrained by over - capacity due to new plant commissions. [2] - Polyester downstream load remains above 90%, but high load has not led to large - scale inventory accumulation. With the end of the "Golden September and Silver October" period, there are concerns that subsequent textile and clothing demand will be affected by the trade war. [2] - PTA's operating rate may decline further, and due to the decline in crude oil prices, it is difficult for PTA to have an independent market. Bottle chips and short fibers continue to fluctuate with costs. [2] Group 3: Summary by Indicators Price Indicators - PTA spot price decreased from 4340 to 4315, a decrease of 25 [2] - MEG domestic price decreased from 4115 to 4100, a decrease of 15 [2] - PTA closing price decreased from 4402 to 4384, a decrease of 18 [2] - 1.4D direct - spun polyester staple fiber price decreased from 6370 to 6355, a decrease of 15 [2] - Polyester bottle chip prices in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang markets decreased, with the average price down 10 yuan/ton compared to the previous working day [2] Spread and Basis Indicators - Short - fiber basis decreased from 201 to 199, a decrease of 2 [2] - The 11 - 12 spread decreased from 26 to 4, a decrease of 22 [2] - The price difference between 1.4D direct - spun and imitation large - chemical fiber decreased from 920 to 905, a decrease of 15 [2] Cash Flow and Processing Fee Indicators - Polyester staple fiber cash flow decreased from 246 to 240, a decrease of 6 [2] - Bottle chip spot processing fee decreased from 539 to 542, a decrease of 2.6 [2] - T32S pure polyester yarn processing fee increased from 3910 to 3925, an increase of 15 [2] Load and Production and Sales Indicators - Direct - spun short - fiber load (weekly) decreased from 94.40% to 93.90% [3] - Polyester staple fiber production and sales decreased from 81.00% to 77.00%, a decrease of 4.00% [3] - Polyester yarn startup rate (weekly) remained unchanged at 63.50% [3] - Recycled cotton - type load index (weekly) decreased from 51.50% to 51.00% [3]

Report Summary 1. Core View - The LPR quotes remained stable in October 2025. The 1 - year LPR was 3.0% and the 5 - year LPR was 3.5%, the same as last time [4]. - China's GDP in the first three quarters of 2025 was 101.5036 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year increase of 5.2% at constant prices. In the third quarter, GDP was 35.45 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year increase of 4.8% at constant prices. In September, the year - on - year growth rate of consumption weakened to 3%, and the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment dropped significantly to 1.1%, mainly dragged down by real estate investment, which had a cumulative year - on - year growth rate of - 13.9% from January to September [6]. - Due to the uncertainty of Sino - US economic and trade policies, the market risk appetite may fluctuate in the short term. After the adverse factors of trade frictions gradually ease, the stock index is expected to return to the upward channel. Before November 1 when the 100% US tariff takes effect, the stock index is expected to fluctuate as the situation may become clearer after the possible meeting between the top leaders of China and the US at the APEC meeting [6]. 2. Market Data Interest Rate Market | Variety | Closing Price | Change from Previous Value (bp) | | --- | --- | --- | | DR001 | 1.47 | 0.00 | | DR007 | 1.59 | 2.25 | | GC001 | 1.16 | - 6.00 | | GC007 | 1.45 | - 1.00 | | SHBOR 3M | 1.58 | 0.20 | | LPR 5 - year | 3.50 | 0.00 | | 1 - year Treasury Bond | 1.47 | 0.00 | | 5 - year Treasury Bond | 1.59 | 2.25 | | 10 - year Treasury Bond | 1.77 | 2.10 | | 10 - year US Treasury Bond | 4.02 | 1.80 | [3] - The central bank conducted 189 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations yesterday at an operating rate of 1.40%, with a bid volume, winning bid volume of 189 billion yuan. With 253.8 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing on the same day, the net withdrawal was 64.8 billion yuan [3]. - This week, 1.021 trillion yuan of reverse repurchases in the central bank's open market will mature, with 612 billion yuan and 409 billion yuan maturing on Thursday and Friday respectively [4]. Stock Index Market | Variety | Closing Price | Change from Previous Day (%) | | --- | --- | --- | | CSI 300 | 4538 | 0.53 | | IF Current Month | 4520 | 0.5 | | SSE 50 | 2975 | 0.24 | | IH Current Month | 2972 | 0.3 | | CSI 500 | 7070 | 0.76 | | IC Current Month | 6972 | 0.7 | | CSI 1000 | 7239 | 0.75 | | IM Current Month | 7138 | 0.5 | | IF Trading Volume | 112287 | - 33.7 | | IF Open Interest | 257451 | - 3.1 | | IH Trading Volume | 52619 | - 41.0 | | IH Open Interest | 89892 | - 8.2 | | IC Trading Volume | 134833 | - 21.8 | | IC Open Interest | 243216 | - 1.4 | | IM Trading Volume | 228283 | - 21.5 | | IM Open Interest | 354337 | - 2.7 | [5] - Yesterday, the CSI 300 rose 0.53% to 4538.2, the SSE 50 rose 0.24% to 2974.9, the CSI 500 rose 0.76% to 7069.6, and the CSI 1000 rose 0.75% to 7239.2. The trading volume of the two markets was 1.7376 trillion yuan, a decrease of 200.5 billion yuan from the previous trading day. Most industry sectors rose, with coal, gas, non - metallic materials, motors, airports, communication services, batteries, communication equipment, and consumer electronics leading the gains, while the precious metals sector tumbled [5]. Futures Premium and Discount | | Current Month Contract | Next Month Contract | Current Quarter Contract | Next Quarter Contract | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IF Premium/Discount | 4.63% | 4.21% | 2.99% | 3.03% | | IH Premium/Discount | 1.10% | 0.91% | 0.23% | 0.26% | | IC Premium/Discount | 15.75% | 13.81% | 11.02% | 10.72% | | IM Premium/Discount | 16.01% | 15.12% | 13.28% | 12.54% | [7] Note: The values in brackets are the annualized premium/discount rates (green indicates premium, red indicates discount).

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Current paper product demand remains stable, paper product prices show no obvious rebound, and the positive impact of the "Golden September and Silver October" on the pulp demand side has not been reflected [12] - As of October 16, 2025, the inventory of China's mainstream pulp ports was 207.4 million tons, a decrease of 0.3 million tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 0.1%, showing a narrow de - stocking trend [12] - The pulp fundamentals have no obvious improvement, but there is a potential shortage of delivery resources for the 2026 Russian needles. The futures price may be priced according to Russian needles and high - quality softwood pulp; maintain the 11 - 1 reverse spread strategy [12] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Pulp Price Data - **Futures Prices**: On October 20, 2025, SP2601 was 5156, up 0.66% day - on - day and down 0.04% week - on - week; SP2511 was 4858, up 0.41% day - on - day and up 1.80% week - on - week; SP2605 was 5212, up 0.54% day - on - day and down 0.31% week - on - week [6] - **Spot Prices**: On October 20, 2025, the price of softwood pulp Silver Star was 5500, unchanged day - on - day and week - on - week; the price of Russian Needles was 5100, up 2.00% day - on - day and week - on - week; the price of hardwood pulp Goldfish was 4250, unchanged day - on - day and week - on - week [6] - **Foreign Quotes**: In October 2025, the quote of Chilean Silver Star was 700 US dollars/ton, down 2.78% month - on - month; the quote of Japanese pulp was 530 US dollars/ton, up 3.92% month - on - month; the quote of Chilean Venus was 590 US dollars/ton, unchanged month - on - month [6] - **Import Costs**: In October 2025, the import cost of Chilean Silver Star was 5721, down 2.75% month - on - month; the import cost of Brazilian Goldfish was 4344, up 3.87% month - on - month; the import cost of Chilean Venus was 4830, unchanged month - on - month [6] Pulp Fundamental Data - **Supply**: In September 2025, the import volume of softwood pulp was 69.1 million tons, up 12.54% month - on - month; the import volume of hardwood pulp was 135.6 million tons, up 7.79% month - on - month. The pulp shipment volume to China in August 2025 was 162 million tons, up 4.50% month - on - month [6] - **Inventory**: As of October 16, 2025, the pulp port inventory was 207.4 million tons; the futures delivery warehouse inventory was 22.7 million tons [6] - **Demand**: In October 2025, the production of offset paper was 20.30 million tons, coated paper was 7.90 million tons, tissue paper was 28.08 million tons, and white cardboard was 34.50 million tons [6] Pulp Valuation Data - **Basis**: On October 20, 2025, the Russian Needles basis was 242, with a quantile level of 0.91; the Silver Star basis was 642, with a quantile level of 0.877 [6] - **Import Profit**: On October 20, 2025, the import profit of softwood pulp Silver Star was - 221, with a quantile level of 0.285; the import profit of hardwood pulp Goldfish was - 94, with a quantile level of 0.555 [6] Supply - side Information - Chile's Arauco Company's September softwood pulp Silver Star was quoted at 700 US dollars/ton; hardwood pulp Star was quoted at 540 US dollars/ton, up 20 US dollars/ton; natural pulp Venus was quoted at 590 US dollars/ton, unchanged. Softwood pulp foreign quotes decreased, while hardwood pulp quotes increased [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel market is weakly stable with prices remaining unchanged on Monday, dominated by rigid - demand purchases, while speculative demand and trading are light. The market's focus may shift to domestic important meetings, but the possibility of major policies in the short - term is low. The pricing weight of the market is increasing. Steel inventories are back to last year's level, but some varieties have serious inventories. The demand lacks explosive power, and the cost shows a structural differentiation [2]. - The improvement in steel demand provides some support for the prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese. The rising coal price due to northern heating raises the cost of steel and double - silicon, limiting the downward price space. However, the over - supply pattern of double - silicon continues, suppressing the upward price space [4]. - For coking coal and coke, the steel mills have not responded to the second price increase. The spot trading atmosphere is average, and the coking coal auction in the origin has weakened. The supply of coking coal in the Mongolian market is still in short supply. The black - sector internal varieties are difficult to resonate, and the coking coal and coke prices may remain in a shock without new "anti - involution"提法 from domestic major meetings [4]. - There is no obvious driving force for iron ore. The supply is not significantly affected in the short - term. High iron - water production may lead to over - supply in the fourth quarter, and the expected increase in Ximengdu iron ore shipments limits the price ceiling [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Price and Market Conditions**: On October 20, the closing prices of far - month and near - month contracts of steel futures had different changes. The spot prices of Tianjin, Shanghai, and Guangzhou steel remained unchanged, and the Guangzhou steel price decreased by 0.65 yuan/ton. The trading on Monday was mainly for rigid demand, with light speculative demand and trading. The market is waiting for the impact of domestic important meetings [1][2]. - **Macro and Industry Analysis**: Before the APEC meeting, the Sino - US tariff issue is still uncertain. The market's focus may shift to domestic important meetings, but the possibility of major policies in the short - term is low. The economic growth in the third quarter maintained resilience, and the pressure to achieve the annual economic growth target is small. The crude steel output has decreased year - on - year in the first three quarters, and the space for administrative production reduction is limited. The steel inventory is back to last year's level, but some varieties have serious inventories. The demand lacks explosive power, and the cost shows a structural differentiation [2]. - **Investment Suggestion**: Adopt a wait - and - see or shock - thinking approach for single - side trading. Observe the opportunity to go long when the spread between rebar and hot - rolled coil of the 01 contract is below 150 for inter - market arbitrage. Roll and take profit for spot - futures reverse arbitrage [5]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Market Situation**: The improvement in steel demand provides some support for the prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese. The rising coal price due to northern heating raises the cost of steel and double - silicon, limiting the downward price space. However, the over - supply pattern of double - silicon continues, suppressing the upward price space [4]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Spot Market**: The steel mills have not responded to the second price increase. The spot trading atmosphere in the port's domestic market is average. The coking coal auction in the origin has weakened, with more unsuccessful auctions. The coking coal price in the Mongolian market is supported by the shortage of supply [4]. - **Futures Market**: On Monday, the futures market first rose and then fell. The carbon element was still strong, while the iron element was weak. After the holiday, the increase in coking coal supply was limited, and the iron - water output remained high. The market expected stricter safety inspections in the main production areas, resulting in a tight supply - demand situation for spot goods. The steel inventory pressure was large, and the inventory reduction speed was slow. The black - sector internal varieties were difficult to resonate, and the coking coal and coke prices were affected by steel. After the price rose on Friday night, it reached a relatively high level. Pay attention to whether domestic major meetings will have new "anti - involution"提法 [4]. - **Investment Suggestion**: Temporarily wait and see for single - side trading [5]. Iron Ore - **Market Situation**: In the short - term, the supply data has not been significantly affected. High iron - water production may lead to over - supply in the fourth quarter. The expected increase in Ximengdu iron ore shipments limits the price ceiling [5].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, precious metal prices may turn to a volatile trend. After a significant and rapid adjustment last Friday night, prices are supported by the US government shutdown and the Fed's stance in October, but demand decline restricts prices. Silver prices at historical highs may face further adjustment risks if the physical shortage in London eases [5] - In the long - term, the Fed still has room to cut interest rates this year, global geopolitical uncertainties persist, US debt is unsustainable, and great - power competition intensifies, increasing the long - term risk to the US dollar's credit. Central bank gold purchases continue, so the long - term center of gold prices is likely to move up. Long - term investors are advised to mainly buy on dips [5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Price Tracking - On October 20, 2025, compared with October 17, 2025, London gold spot dropped 2.8%, London silver spot dropped 5.0%, COMEX gold dropped 2.8%, COMEX silver dropped 5.2%, AU2512 dropped 2.9%, AG2512 dropped 4.1%, AU (T + D) dropped 2.9%, and AG (T + D) dropped 4.1% [5] - Regarding price differences, from October 17 to 20, the gold TD - SHFE active price difference changed by - 27.1%, the silver TD - SHFE active price difference changed by - 24.1%, etc [5] 2. Position Data - From October 16 to 17, 2025, gold ETF - SPDR increased 1.22%, silver ETF - SLV increased 0.48%, COMEX gold non - commercial long positions increased 1.85%, etc [5] 3. Inventory Data - From October 17 to 20, 2025, SHFE gold inventory had a 0.00% change, SHFE silver inventory dropped 6.98%, COMEX gold inventory dropped 0.10%, and COMEX silver inventory dropped 0.53% [5] 4. Interest Rate/Exchange Rate/Stock Market Data - From October 17 to 20, 2025, the US dollar/Chinese yuan central parity rate increased 0.03%, the US dollar index increased 0.21%, the 2 - year US Treasury yield increased 1.47%, etc [5] 5. Market Review - On October 20, the main contract of Shanghai gold futures closed down 1.63% to 970.32 yuan/gram, and the main contract of Shanghai silver futures closed down 3.99% to 11,742 yuan/kilogram [5]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report - PTA supply is shrinking, with Ningbo Yisheng Petrochemical Phase 4 reducing its load by 50% until the end of the month. However, its processing fee remains low due to over - capacity from new device production. The polyester downstream load is high, but there are concerns about textile and clothing demand after the "Golden September and Silver October" period due to trade wars. PTA's upward movement is restricted by falling crude oil prices [2]. - For ethylene glycol, the inventory at East China ports is low, and the expected import volume from overseas markets is decreasing. However, domestic device production is putting pressure on prices. With the end of the polyester peak season and the downward movement of the crude oil fundamentals, polyester is expected to operate weakly [2]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Quotes - **PTA**: The price of INE crude oil rose from 432.6 yuan/barrel to 435.8 yuan/barrel, PTA - SC decreased from 1258.3 yuan/ton to 1217.0 yuan/ton, and the PTA/SC ratio dropped from 1.4002 to 1.3843. The PTA spot price fell from 4340 yuan/ton to 4315 yuan/ton, and the main - contract futures price decreased from 4402 yuan/ton to 4384 yuan/ton. The spot processing fee dropped from 136.0 yuan/ton to 119.6 yuan/ton, and the on - screen processing fee decreased from 208.0 yuan/ton to 188.6 yuan/ton [2]. - **MEG**: The main - contract futures price remained at 4003 yuan/ton. The MEG - naphtha spread changed from - 102.97 yuan/ton to - 102.16 yuan/ton. The MEG domestic price dropped from 4115 yuan/ton to 4100 yuan/ton, and the main - contract basis decreased from 74 to 70 [2]. Industrial Chain Start - up Situation - The PX start - up rate remained at 84.62%, the PTA start - up rate remained at 76.95%, the MEG start - up rate decreased from 66.50% to 65.39%, and the polyester load remained at 89.38% [2]. Product Price and Cash Flow - **Polyester Filament**: The prices of POY150D/48F, FDY150D/96F, DTY150D/48F decreased by 75 yuan/ton, 5 yuan/ton, and 25 yuan/ton respectively. The POY cash flow decreased from 126 to 77, the FDY cash flow increased from - 229 to - 208, and the DTY cash flow increased from 226 to 227. The filament sales rate decreased from 55% to 42% [2]. - **Polyester Staple Fiber**: The price of 1.4D direct - spinning polyester staple fiber decreased from 6370 yuan/ton to 6355 yuan/ton. The staple - fiber cash flow increased from 381 to 392, and the staple - fiber sales rate decreased from 81% to 68% [2]. - **Polyester Chip**: The price of semi - bright chips decreased from 5485 yuan/ton to 5475 yuan/ton. The chip cash flow increased from 46 to 62, and the chip sales rate decreased from 67% to 51% [2]. Device Maintenance An East China 2.2 - million - ton PTA device slightly reduced its load, and the recovery time is to be tracked [2].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Report's Core View - In the short - term, consecutive typhoons around the National Day have adversely affected sugarcane harvesting and production in South China, with sugarcane in the producing areas experiencing lodging and flooding. There is a seasonal upward momentum for sugar prices due to the shortage between old and new crops after the holiday. In the medium - term, the sugarcane in the southern main producing areas has grown well this year, and the expected rebound in sugar prices will be limited after the new sugar is launched [4] Group 3: Summary of Each Related Directory Domestic Sugar Price - On October 20, 2025, the spot price per ton of sugar was 5810 yuan in Nanning Warehouse, Guangxi (unchanged), 5740 yuan in Kunming (down 20 yuan), 5600 yuan in Dali, Yunnan (down 15 yuan), and 5870 yuan in Rizhao, Shandong (down 10 yuan) [4] - SR01 was priced at 5428 yuan (up 16 yuan), SRO5 at 5389 yuan (up 12 yuan), and SR01 - 05 was 39 yuan (up 4 yuan) [4] Exchange Rates and International Sugar - Related Data - The exchange rate of RMB to USD was 7.143 (up 0.0055), the exchange rate of Real to RMB was 1.2818 (up 0.0212), and the exchange rate of Rupee to RMB was 0.084 (down 0.0004) [4] - The ice raw sugar main contract was at 15.53 (unchanged), the London white sugar main contract was at 573 (up 3), and the Brent crude oil main contract was at 61.34 (unchanged) [4]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - The short - term stock index is expected to be strong and volatile, and attention should be paid to the possible Sino - US leaders' meeting during the APEC meeting in South Korea at the end of this month [1]. - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank's short - term interest rate risk warning suppresses the upward space [1]. - Gold and silver prices are affected by Sino - US trade relations, US government shutdown, and Fed's interest - rate cut expectations, showing different trends [1]. - Copper prices are expected to remain strong due to continued fermentation of copper supply disturbances and improved macro - liquidity [1]. - Aluminum and alumina prices are expected to fluctuate, with alumina facing weak fundamentals [1]. - Zinc prices are supported by short - term export windows, while nickel and stainless - steel prices are affected by macro factors and supply - demand conditions [1]. - Tin prices have long - term opportunities for bottom - fishing due to supply risks and demand support [1]. - Industrial silicon, polycrystalline silicon, and other chemical products have different supply - demand situations and price trends [1]. - Black metal prices are generally volatile, with supply - demand contradictions and seasonal impacts [1]. - Agricultural product prices are affected by factors such as trade policies, supply - demand relationships, and weather [1]. - Energy and chemical product prices are influenced by OPEC+ production policies, geopolitical situations, and demand seasons [1]. - Shipping freight rates may stop falling and stabilize [1]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Macro - finance - Stock index: Short - term strong and volatile, beware of tariff policy fluctuations, focus on the Sino - US leaders' meeting at the end of the month [1]. - Bond futures: Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial, but short - term interest rate risk warning suppresses the rise [1]. - Gold: High - level decline due to Sino - US trade easing, but expected to be volatile due to factors such as US government shutdown and Fed's interest - rate cut expectations [1]. - Silver: High - level decline, short - term short - side volatile, pay attention to physical tightness in London [1]. Non - ferrous metals - Copper: Expected to remain strong due to supply disturbances and improved macro - liquidity [1]. - Aluminum: Fundamentals are mixed, price expected to fluctuate [1]. - Alumina: Weak fundamentals, pay attention to cost support [1]. - Zinc: Supported by short - term export windows, but subsequent disturbances still exist [1]. - Nickel: Short - term macro - dominated volatility, high - inventory suppression exists [1]. - Stainless steel: Short - term volatility, pay attention to short - term trading opportunities [1]. - Tin: Long - term bottom - fishing opportunities due to supply risks and demand support [1]. Chemical products - Industrial silicon: Northwest production resumes, polycrystalline silicon production increases in October, organic silicon demand is weak [1]. - Polycrystalline silicon: Supply increases and demand decreases in October, policy impact fades [1]. Black metals - Steel products (including rebar, hot - rolled coil): Industry drivers are unclear, valuation is low, not recommended for directional trading [1]. - Iron ore: Near - month limited by production restrictions, far - month has upward potential [1]. - Others (such as coking coal, coke, glass, soda ash): Generally volatile, facing supply - demand contradictions and price pressure [1]. Agricultural products - Vegetable oils (such as palm oil, soybean oil, rapeseed oil): Affected by trade policies, supply - demand relationships, and inventory levels, with different trading suggestions [1]. - Grains and oilseeds (such as corn, soybean meal): Affected by trade policies, supply - demand, and weather, with corresponding outlooks [1]. - Others (such as cotton, sugar, pulp, etc.): Different price trends and trading strategies based on their own fundamentals [1]. Energy and chemicals - Crude oil and fuel oil: Bearish due to OPEC+ production increase, geopolitical cooling, demand off - season, and US tariff threats [1]. - Other energy - related products (such as LPG, etc.): Affected by various factors and showing different price trends [1]. - Chemical products (such as ethylene glycol, styrene, etc.): Affected by supply - demand, inventory, and production factors [1]. Others - Shipping: Container shipping rates may stop falling and stabilize [1]. - Livestock: Pig prices are expected to be weak due to supply - demand imbalance [1].

本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 薛夏泽 从业资格证号：F03117750 投资咨询证号：Z0022680 目录 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【黑色金属周报】 国贸期货 黑色金属研究中心 2025-10-20 张宝慧 从业资格证号：F0286636 投资咨询证号：Z0010820 董子勖 从业资格证号：F03094002 投资咨询证号：Z0020036 | 01 | 02 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 钢材 | 焦煤焦炭 | | | | 关 注 下 周 国 内 大 会 ， 可 能 性 的 政 策 预 期 好 转 交 易 | 关 注 重 大 会 议 是 否 对 " | 反 内 卷 " | 有新提法 | 02 焦煤焦炭 03 铁矿石 下 周 重 要 会 议 召 开 ， 关 注 政 策 动 向 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议，期市有风险，投资需谨慎 0 70 140 210 280 350 420 01/01 03/01 04/30 06/29 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【玉米周报】 预期转为现实，关注现货卖压 国贸期货 农产品研究中心 2025-10-20 国贸期货研究院 农产品研究中心：黄向岚 从业资格证号：F03110419 投资咨询证号：Z0021658 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 玉米:预期转为现实，关注现货卖压 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供给 | 偏空 | （1）新粮集中上市，渠道上量高位，关注本周华北转晴后卖压；（2）25/26年度种植成本继续下降，播种面积稳中略减，单产表现良好，整体维持丰产预 期；（3）进口谷物政策限制持续，进口谷物供应缩量。 | | 需求 | 短期偏多， 中期偏空 | （1）据饲料工业协会数据，2025年8月，全国工业饲料产量2936万吨，环比增长3.7%，同比增长3.8%。饲料企业生产的配合饲料中玉米用量占比为32.9%； （2）畜禽短期预期维持高存栏，产能去化尚不明显，支撑饲用需求，但目前养殖利润呈现亏损，国家政策 ...