刘雨萱 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 liuyuxuan023982@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 铂钯基本面数据 | 昨日收盘价 | 涨幅 | 575. 00 | 铂金期货2606 | -3.93% | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 金交所铂金 | 579. 73 | -4. 26% | 纽约铂主连(前日) | 2282. 60 | -0. 34% | | | | | | 伦敦现货铂金(前日) | 2283. 00 | -0. 29% | 纪金期货2606 | 460. 70 | -3. 20% | | | | | | 人民币现货包金 | 429.00 | -1. 15% | 价格 | 纽约肥主连(前日) | 1.833.50 | 0. 91% | | | | | 伦敦现货纪金(前日) | 1.798.00 | 1.73% | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | 较前日变动 | 昨日持仓 | | | | | 广铂（千克） | 53,725 | -29, 103 | 40, 169 | ...

商 品 研 究 2026 年 1 月 9 日 豆粕：震荡，等待下周 USDA 报告 豆一：调整震荡 吴光静 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011992 wuguangjing@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 豆粕/豆一基本面数据 | | | 收盘价 （日盘） | 涨 跌 收盘价 （夜盘） 涨 跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | DCE豆一2605（元/吨） | +41 4387 | （+0.94%） -9 （-0.21%） 4369 | | 期 货 | DCE豆粕2605（元/吨） | 2782 -9 | （-0.32%） 2779 -25（-0.89%） | | | CBOT大豆03（美分/蒲） | 1061.25 | -4.75（-0.45%） | | | CBOT豆粕03（美元/短吨） | -1.9 303.4 | n a （-0.62%） | | | | 3105～3200， 较昨+30至+40； | 豆粕 （43%） 1月M2605+350/+380， 持平； 2月M2605+370， 持 | | | 山东 （元/吨） | | M2605+260/+300/+310/+3 ...

商 品 研 究 2026 年 1 月 9 日 铁矿石：估值偏高，谨慎追多 张广硕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020198 zhangguangshuo@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 铁矿石基本面数据 | | | | 昨日收盘价(元/吨) | 涨跌(元/吨) | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货 | 12605 | | 813.0 | -15.0 | -1.81% | | | | | | 昨日持仓(手) | 持仓变动(手) | | | | | | 636. 674 | -29.907 | | | | | 昨日价格(元/吨) | 前日价格(元/吨) | 涨跌(元/吨) | | | 进口矿 | 卡粉（65%） | 907. 0 | 910. 0 | -3.0 | | | | PB (61.5%) | 829.0 | 832. 0 | -3.0 | | 现货价格 | | 金布巴(61%) | 782. 0 | 785. 0 | -3.0 | | | | 超特 (56.5%) | 707. 0 | 710. 0 | -3.0 | | | 国产矿 | 部那 ...

2026 年 01 月 09 日 短纤：短期震荡市 20260109 瓶片：短期震荡市 20260109 钱嘉寅 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0023476 qianjiayin@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 | | | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 短纤2602 | 6472 | 6544 | -72 | PF02-03 | -72 | 12 | -84 | | PF | 短纤2602 | 6544 | 6532 | 12 | PF03-04 | T | 76 | -80 | | | 短纤2603 | 6548 | 6456 | 92 | PF主力基差 | -19 | -2 | -17 | | | 短纤主力持仓量 | 112378 | 116315 | -3937 | 短纤华东现货价格 | 6, 525 | 6,530 | -5 | | | 短纤主力成交量 | 114060 | 126634 | -12574 | 短纤产销率 | ୧୧% | 74% | -8 ...

资料来源：国泰君安期货、同花顺、Mysteel、SMM、Fastmarkets 2026 年 1 月 9 日 碳酸锂：库存转增，回调采买需求支撑价格 | | | 邵婉嫕 | | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015722 | | | shaowanyi@gtht.com | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 刘鸿儒 | | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0023466 | | | liuhongru@gtht.com | | | | 【基本面跟踪】 | | | | | | | | | | 碳酸锂基本面数据 | | | | | | | | | | | | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-10 | T-22 | T-66 | | | | 2601合约（收盘价） | 137,000 | -2,960 | 17,460 | 18,560 | 46,240 | 64,180 | | | | 2601合约（成交量） | 654 | -64 | -8,714 | -21,739 | -96,406 | -109,358 | | | | 26 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report - The end - year fundamentals of PP have limited support. The cost - side PDH profit remains low, and multiple PDH units in South China have maintenance expectations. Attention should be paid to the marginal changes of PDH units under deep PDH profit losses [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of PP2605 was 6,484, a daily decline of 0.03%. The trading volume was 557,946, and the open - interest decreased by 8,586 [1]. - **Basis and Spread Changes**: The basis of the 05 contract was - 204, and the 05 - 09 contract spread was - 52 [1]. - **Important Spot Prices**: Spot prices in North China, East China, and South China were 6,250, 6,280, and 6,350 yuan/ton respectively. The price in South China increased by 20 yuan/ton compared to the previous day [1]. 3.2 Spot News - The market was volatile. Some arbitrage resources could not be unwound. The sales pressure on the spot side was moderate, and traders were generally inclined to hold prices. The prices of some tight - supply grades increased slightly. End - year demand was difficult to provide continuous elasticity, the sustainability of buying was questionable, and the warehouse receipts remained at a high level. The PP US dollar market price remained stable. Overseas suppliers were not enthusiastic about offering prices to China, and downstream buyers continued to make rigid purchases, with little improvement in trading [1]. 3.3 Market Conditions Analysis - **Cost Side**: Crude oil and propane prices were strong. There was a valuation differentiation within olefins, and the internal and upstream profit - end valuations of PE were higher than those of PP [2]. - **Supply Side**: There was no new production before the 2605 contract, and the game between existing supply and demand intensified [2]. - **Demand Side**: New orders from downstream industries weakened, and downstream factories were still cautious in purchasing, resulting in weak demand [2]. 3.4 Trend Intensity - The PP trend intensity was 0 [3].

商 品 研 究 2026 年 01 月 09 日 工业硅：逢高布空思路 多晶硅：悲观情绪较浓 张 航 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018008 zhanghang2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 工业硅、多晶硅基本面数据 | | | 指标名称 Si2605收盘价（元/吨） | T | T-1 -445 | T-5 -380 | T-22 -270 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | Si2605成交量（手） | 8,535 666,115 | 188,729 | 299,914 | 495,446 | | | | Si2605持仓量（手） | | | | | | | | PS2605收盘价（元/吨） | 260,531 53,610 | 15,797 -4,690 | 44,311 -4,280 | 63,588 - | | | 工业硅、多晶硅期货市场 | PS2605成交量（手） | 39,605 | 19,024 | -3,108 | - | | | | PS2605持仓量（手） | 58,049 | -9,751 | -25,286 | ...

Report Overview - Report Date: January 9, 2026 - Report Title: "Palm Oil: Wait for Negative Factors to Fade, Focus on Macroeconomic Sentiment Impact; Soybean Oil: Mainly in a Unilateral Range, Focus on Spread Opportunities" 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Report's Core View - Palm oil should wait for negative factors to fade and focus on the impact of macro - sentiment; soybean oil will mainly move in a unilateral range, and attention should be paid to spread opportunities [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking 3.1.1 Futures Data - Palm oil主力: Closing price (day session) was 8,612 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.58%, and closing price (night session) was 8,612 yuan/ton with no change; trading volume was 630,230 lots, an increase of 176,298 lots, and open interest was 393,894 lots, an increase of 326 lots [1] - Soybean oil主力: Closing price was 7,944 yuan/ton with a daily decrease of 0.18%, and no change at night; trading volume was 258,818 lots, a decrease of 38,383 lots, and open interest was 664,893 lots, an increase of 20,895 lots [1] - Rapeseed oil主力: Closing price (day session) was 8,956 yuan/ton with a daily decrease of 1.53%, and closing price (night session) was 8,952 yuan/ton with a decrease of 0.04%; trading volume was 309,993 lots, an increase of 20,169 lots, and open interest was 248,582 lots, an increase of 20,113 lots [1] - Malaysian palm oil主力: Closing price was 4,042 ringgit/ton with a daily increase of 0.17%, and closing price at night was 4,029 ringgit/ton with a decrease of 0.35% [1] - CBOT soybean oil主力: Closing price was 49.50 cents/pound with a daily increase of 0.39% [1] 3.1.2 Spot Data - Palm oil (24 - degree, Guangdong): Spot price was 8,620 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan/ton [1] - First - grade soybean oil (Guangdong): Spot price was 8,500 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan/ton [1] - Fourth - grade imported rapeseed oil (Guangxi): Spot price was 9,850 yuan/ton, a decrease of 200 yuan/ton [1] - Malaysian palm oil FOB price: 1,005 dollars/ton, a decrease of 10 dollars/ton [1] 3.1.3 Basis Data - Palm oil (Guangdong): Basis was 8 yuan/ton [1] - Soybean oil (Guangdong): Basis was 556 yuan/ton [1] - Rapeseed oil (Guangxi): Basis was 894 yuan/ton [1] 3.1.4 Spread Data - Rapeseed - palm oil futures spread: 344 yuan/ton, compared with 533 yuan/ton two days ago [1] - Soybean - palm oil futures spread: - 668 yuan/ton, compared with - 604 yuan/ton two days ago [1] - Palm oil 5 - 9 spread: 112 yuan/ton, compared with 110 yuan/ton two days ago [1] - Soybean oil 5 - 9 spread: 130 yuan/ton, compared with 150 yuan/ton two days ago [1] - Rapeseed oil 5 - 9 spread: 13 yuan/ton, compared with 14 yuan/ton two days ago [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - Indonesia may raise palm oil export taxes due to financial constraints to support its biodiesel program [2] - In 2025, Indonesia's palm - based biodiesel consumption was 14.2 million kiloliters, a 7.6% increase from the previous year. Indonesia plans to increase the biodiesel blending ratio to 50% this year, likely starting in the second half of the year [3][5] - The USDA's Kuala Lumpur commissioner predicts that Malaysia's palm oil exports are expected to benefit from Indonesia's B50 policy. It is estimated that Malaysia's palm oil exports in the 2025/26 season will be about 16.2 million tons, and the ending inventory will drop to 2.16 million tons [5] - Analysts predict that the average ending inventory of US soybeans in the 2025/26 season will be 292 million bushels, with a forecast range of 245 - 350 million bushels, compared with the USDA's December estimate of 290 million bushels [5] - Brazil's ANEC expects soybean exports in January to reach 2.4 million tons (compared with 1.12 million tons last year) and corn exports to be 2.85 million tons (compared with 3.19 million tons last year) [5] - Spain has approved a draft decree to increase the blending ratio of renewable fuels in the transportation sector from 12% to 14% in 2026 and is promoting the aviation and shipping sectors to achieve EU targets [6] 3.3 Trend Intensity - Palm oil trend intensity: 0; soybean oil trend intensity: 0 [7]

2026 年 1 月 9 日 表 1：集运指数（欧线）基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨跌 | 昨日成交 | | 昨日持仓 | 持仓变动 | 昨日成交/持仓 | | 前日成交/持仓 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货 | EC2602 | 1,706.0 | -8.98% | 27,173 | | 20,008 | -1,803 | 1.36 | | 2.00 | | | EC2604 | 1,163.3 | -4.76% | 16,470 | | 27,774 | 1,435 | 0.59 | | 0.84 | | | | 本期 | | | 2026/1/5 | | 单位 | | 周涨幅 | | | | SCFIS：欧洲航线 | | 1,795.83 | | | | 点 | | 3.1% | | | 运价 | SCFIS：美西航线 | | 1,250.12 | | | | 点 | | -3.9% | | | 指数 | | 本期 | | | 2025/12/26 | | 单位 | | 双 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings Not provided in the document. Core Views - Silver has fallen from its high, indicating short - term price pressure. The bullish trend of silver is facing challenges, and the long - term trend has not ended, but the current adjustment is not over [7][8][9]. - The black sector prices are facing resistance at previous highs. The iron element shows short - term high - level fluctuations and long - term pressure, the carbon element's supply is expected to tighten in the long - term, and the ferroalloy has different trends for different varieties [11]. Summary by Related Catalogs Pre - market Highlights - **Silver**: Due to factors such as the easing of domestic spot premium, the decline of overseas silver lease rate, the convergence of internal and external price differences, and the strengthening of exchange risk control, the pressure for bulls to push up prices has increased. It is judged that the silver trend - following long strategy is worth exiting. The current decline does not mean the end of the long - term trend, but the current point has a poor risk - return ratio, and the adjustment is not over [8][9]. - **Black Sector**: The black sector prices are facing resistance at previous highs. For the iron element, there is long - term pressure and short - term high - level fluctuations; for the carbon element, the supply is expected to tighten in the long - term, and the price center will rise; for the ferroalloy, the manganese - silicon supply - demand pattern remains loose, and the silicon - iron is expected to maintain high - level fluctuations in the short - term [11][12]. Commodity Research Morning Report - Metals - **Gold**: Safe - haven sentiment has rebounded [16]. - **Silver**: High - level correction. The price has declined, and various indicators show signs of weakening in the short - term [16][20]. - **Copper**: The decrease in LME inventory limits the price decline. The price has fallen, but the inventory situation is a supporting factor [16][23]. - **Zinc**: High - level decline. The price and trading volume have decreased [16][26]. - **Lead**: The decrease in LME inventory limits the price decline. The price has fallen slightly, and the inventory situation affects the price [16][29]. - **Tin**: High - level loosening. The price has declined, and the market shows signs of weakness [16][33]. - **Aluminium**: Market sentiment has cooled. The price and trading volume have changed, and the overall market is weak [16][36]. - **Alumina**: The supply surplus remains unchanged [16][36]. - **Cast Aluminium Alloy**: Follows the trend of electrolytic aluminium [16][36]. - **Platinum**: There is selling pressure due to the outflow of ETF holdings [16][39]. - **Palladium**: Generally follows platinum, slightly stronger [16][39]. - **Nickel**: There is a game between real - world pressure and cycle - change narratives, with wide - range fluctuations [16][43]. - **Stainless Steel**: The real - world fundamentals are a drag, and the market is mainly focused on the game of Indonesian policies [16][43]. Commodity Research Morning Report - Non - metals - **Carbonate Lithium**: Inventory has started to increase, and the demand for bargain - hunting purchases supports the price [16][47]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Adopt a strategy of shorting at high prices [16][50]. - **Polysilicon**: Pessimistic sentiment is strong [16][51]. - **Iron Ore**: The valuation is high, and be cautious about chasing long positions [16][54]. - **Rebar**: The market sentiment fluctuates, and the futures price shows wide - range fluctuations [16][58]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: The market sentiment fluctuates, and the futures price shows wide - range fluctuations [16][58]. - **Silicon Iron**: There is a game between long and short positions in the futures market, and be vigilant about position risks [16][62]. - **Manganese Silicon**: There is a game between long and short positions in the futures market, and be vigilant about position risks [16][62]. - **Coke**: The event is developing, and the price shows high - level fluctuations [16][66]. - **Coking Coal**: The event is developing, and the price shows high - level fluctuations [16][67]. - **Log**: The price fluctuates repeatedly [16][70]. - **Para - Xylene**: The market shows unilateral high - level fluctuations, and pay attention to the positive spread arbitrage of monthly differences [16][74]. - **PTA**: High - level fluctuation market [16][74]. - **MEG**: The upside space is limited, and there is still pressure in the medium - term [16][74]. - **Rubber**: Wide - range fluctuations [16][83]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The oscillation center moves up [16][87]. - **LLDPE**: The standard product production ratio remains low, and the import profit is significantly repaired [16][90]. - **PP**: Propylene is stronger than ethylene, and there is a strong expectation of PDH maintenance in the first quarter [16][93]. - **Caustic Soda**: Weak - level fluctuations [16][96]. - **Pulp**: Oscillatory operation [16][102]. - **Glass**: The price of the original sheet is stable [16][107]. - **Methanol**: Oscillatory operation [16][110]. - **Urea**: Short - term oscillatory operation [16][115]. - **Styrene**: Short - term oscillation [16][120]. - **Soda Ash**: The spot market has little change [16][124]. - **LPG**: Pay attention to geopolitical disturbances [16][127]. - **Propylene**: The demand is stable, and the spot price slightly increases [16][128]. - **PVC**: Weak - level fluctuations [16][136]. - **Fuel Oil**: Strong - level fluctuations, with support at the bottom [16][139]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The night - session price rises, and the price difference between high - and low - sulfur fuels in the overseas spot market rebounds slightly [16][139]. - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: Lightly try to go long on the 02 contract for delivery; hold short positions on the 04 contract [16][141]. - **Short - Fiber**: Short - term oscillatory market [16][155]. - **Bottle - Chip**: Short - term oscillatory market [16][155]. - **Offset Printing Paper**: Short at high prices [16][158]. - **Pure Benzene**: Short - term oscillation mainly [16][162]. - **Palm Oil**: Wait for the negative factors to subside, and pay attention to the impact of macro - sentiment [16][166]. - **Soybean Oil**: The price moves in a unilateral range, and pay attention to monthly - difference opportunities [16][166]. - **Soybean Meal**: Oscillation, waiting for next week's USDA report [16][172]. - **Soybean**: Adjustment and oscillation [16][172]. - **Corn**: Pay attention to the spot price [16][175]. - **Sugar**: Range consolidation mainly [16][178]. - **Cotton**: Fluctuates with the overall market sentiment [16][183]. - **Egg**: The sentiment for the far - month contract weakens [16][189]. - **Live Pig**: There is a negative feedback in demand, and the supply is entering a pre - increment stage [16][192]. - **Peanut**: Oscillatory operation [16][197].