1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core View of the Report - The pulp market is expected to remain in a volatile pattern in the short - term. High port inventories, slow de - stocking, and weak demand prevent significant price increases, while firm foreign offers, cost support, and potential pre - National Day restocking limit the downside [99][100] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry News - As of September 18, 2025, the pulp inventory at Changshu Port was 508,000 tons, up 44,000 tons (9.5% YoY); at Qingdao Port, it was 1,432,000 tons, up 14,000 tons (1.0% YoY); at Gaolan Port, it was 49,000 tons, down 9,000 tons (15.5% YoY). The total inventory of major ports was 2,112,000 tons, up 50,000 tons (2.4% YoY) [5][6] - Chile's Arauco company's September coniferous pulp Silver Star quoted price remained at $700/ton, broadleaf pulp Star increased to $540/ton, and natural pulp Venus remained at $590/ton [6] - Chenming Group's Shouguang Base No. 8 plant with an annual output of 800,000 tons of high - grade coated paper started operation. Sichuan Xianhe New Materials plans to add 200,000 tons/year of household paper production capacity [7] 3.2 Market Data - **Basis and Spread**: On September 19, 2025, the basis of Silver Star was 632 yuan/ton, down 4.24% MoM; the basis of Russian Needle was 182 yuan/ton, up 1.11% MoM; the Silver Star - Russian Needle spread was 450 yuan/ton, down 6.25% MoM [18] - **Monthly Spread**: On September 19, 2025, the 11 - 01 monthly spread was - 298 yuan/ton, down 3.47% MoM; the 01 - 05 monthly spread was - 18 yuan/ton, down 80.00% MoM [24] 3.3 Fundamental Data - **Price**: The needle - broadleaf spread narrowed. The import profit of coniferous and broadleaf pulp decreased. The price of pulp futures first rose and then fell. The price of broadleaf pulp showed a narrow - range upward trend [28][34] - **Supply**: The wood chip purchase price in East China was generally stable, with some increases. The supply of domestic chemical mechanical pulp and broadleaf pulp decreased. In July, the European port inventory decreased slightly, and the global pulp out - bound volume increased seasonally. In July, the export of coniferous and broadleaf pulp from Canada, Finland, Chile, the US, Brazil, Indonesia, Uruguay, etc. changed [45][54][60] - **Demand**: The demand for downstream base paper was weak. The white cardboard market was relatively better, the offset paper market was bearish, and the household paper market was weak. In August, the retail sales of terminal demand areas for pulp increased seasonally [99][84] - **Inventory**: The total inventory of major ports was at a medium level this year, showing a narrow - range accumulation trend. The warehouse receipt quantity decreased slightly [96][87]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating of the Industry - No investment rating of the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - This week, the value of short - selling the offset printing paper is low, and the market will mainly move sideways. The current bearish factors have been fully priced in, and there may be short - term marginal improvements in the supply - demand situation. The price is expected to move sideways, and investors should pay attention to opportunities for buying at lows and selling at highs [54]. 3. Summary by Directory Industry News - The inventory days of domestic double - coated paper on Thursday this week increased by 1.01% compared to last Thursday, and the weekly increase widened by 0.14 percentage points. The market demand has not improved significantly, and paper mills are facing inventory pressure [6]. - The operating load rate of the domestic double - coated paper industry this week was 50.78%, a month - on - month increase of 0.66 percentage points, and the weekly increase narrowed by 1.24 percentage points. Some production lines in Shandong and Jiangsu have resumed normal production, but the overall increase in industry operation is limited [6]. - Chile's Arauco announced its new September pulp export prices: coniferous pulp Silver Star at $700/ton, natural pulp Venus at $590/ton, and broad - leaf pulp Star up $20/ton to $540/ton [6]. Market Trends - The average daily price of 70g high - white double - coated paper in the mainstream market on September 19 was 4,800 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.37% and a year - on - year decrease of 18.75%. The prices of some brands in some regions have declined [9][11]. - In terms of cost - profit, the pre - tax and after - tax profits of double - coated paper have decreased week - on - week [12]. Supply - Demand Data - **Industry Capacity**: In 2024, the domestic double - coated paper industry capacity was about 16.52 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7%, with an overall oversupply in the industry [17][21]. - **Production and Capacity Utilization**: This week, the domestic double - coated paper industry output was 170,600 tons, and the capacity utilization rate was 50.8% [27]. - **Sales and Inventory**: This week, the domestic double - coated paper sales volume was 167,000 tons, and the weekly enterprise inventory was 359,000 tons. In August, both social and enterprise inventories showed a slight increase [32][45]. - **Imports and Exports**: In July, the domestic double - coated paper imports were about 12,000 tons, and exports were about 62,000 tons [39]. - **Terminal Consumption**: In recent years, the growth rate of retail sales of books, newspapers, and magazines has gradually slowed down [51]. Market Judgment - **Supply**: Domestic production this week was 170,600 tons with a capacity utilization rate of 50.8%. In July, imports were about 12,000 tons, maintaining a low level [54]. - **Demand**: Domestic sales this week were 167,000 tons. In July, exports were about 62,000 tons [54]. - **Viewpoint**: The futures market moved sideways last week, closing at 4,234 yuan/ton on Friday night. The spot market has shown little overall fluctuation. Although prices of some brands in some regions have weakened, the futures price is at a large discount, fully pricing in long - term bearish expectations. The supply - demand situation in the spot market may remain weak, but there may be short - term marginal improvements [54]. - **Valuation**: Based on the current spot price, the valuation does not provide delivery profit, and the overall valuation is low. The futures price is close to the production cost of some less - integrated enterprises [54]. - **Strategy**: The price will mainly move sideways. Pay attention to opportunities for buying at lows and selling at highs [54].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The demand shows a lackluster performance, and attention should be paid to the rhythm of electric arc furnaces [3]. - In the peak season, the demand for steel is likely to be weaker than expected. During the positive feedback stage of off - season expectations, traders are the main demanders, but they will become suppliers in the peak season, leading to greater supply pressure on steel. To keep inventory from increasing, supply needs to be reduced, which requires price drops and profit compression. Since scrap steel used in electric arc furnaces is a high - cost iron element, the production reduction rhythm of electric arc furnaces should be monitored [5]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Overall Market Situation - Overseas macro: The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, and the market continued the soft - landing trading [5]. - Domestic macro: The "Qiushi" magazine republished an article on "anti - involution", including efforts to rectify the chaos of low - price and disorderly competition among enterprises, and effectively governing the "involution" hotspots in accordance with laws and regulations. Policy expectations have resurfaced [5]. - Black industry chain: The profit of steel mills is acceptable, and they maintain high production. The demand shows a seasonal rebound, and the inventory accumulation of steel slows down [12]. 2. Rebar Fundamental Data - **Basis and spread**: Due to the suppression of warehouse receipts, the 10 - 01 contract continued the reverse - spread logic. Last week, the Shanghai rebar spot price was 3260 (+40) yuan/ton, the 01 contract price was 3172 (+45) yuan/ton, the 01 contract basis was 88 (-5) yuan/ton, and the 10 - 01 spread was - 94 (-2) yuan/ton [15][18]. - **Demand**: Second - hand housing transactions remained at a high level, indicating the existence of rigid demand, but new - housing transactions remained at a low level, reflecting weak market confidence. Land transaction area also remained low. The demand showed a seasonal rebound but was at a low level compared to the same period [22]. - **MS weekly data**: The demand may gradually bottom out, and attention should be paid to the inventory changes in the peak season. Scrap steel is still a high - cost iron element, and attention should be paid to the production reduction rhythm of electric arc furnaces [24][32]. - **Production profit**: Last week, the rebar spot profit was 153 (+48) yuan/ton, the main - contract profit was 143 (-26) yuan/ton, and the East China rebar valley - electricity profit was 109 (-13) yuan/ton [38]. 3. Hot - Rolled Coil Fundamental Data - **Basis and spread**: Attention should be paid to the positive - spread. Last week, the Shanghai hot - rolled coil spot price was 3420 (+20) yuan/ton, the 01 contract futures price was 3374 (+10) yuan/ton, the 01 contract basis was 46 (+10) yuan/ton, and the 10 - 01 spread was 51 (+20) yuan/ton [40][43]. - **Demand**: It is the seasonal peak season, and the demand rebounded month - on - month. However, the production schedules of the home - appliance and automobile industries are not good, so there is a risk that the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season may be lackluster. The export profit has opened up due to the widening of the internal - external price difference, and the export volume remains at a high level [44][46]. - **MS weekly data**: The demand rebounded, the supply was at a high level, and the inventory accumulated. The production of hot - rolled coils remained at a high level [48][49]. - **Production profit**: Last week, the hot - rolled coil spot profit was 150 (+26) yuan/ton, and the main - contract profit was 195 (-61) yuan/ton [54]. 4. Variety Spread Structure - Attention should be paid to the opportunities for the expansion of the cold - hot spread and the medium - plate to hot - rolled coil spread [55]. 5. Variety Regional Difference - The report provides the price differences between different regions for rebar, wire rod, hot - rolled coil, cold - rolled coil, etc [63]. 6. Cold - Rolled Coil and Medium - Plate Supply, Demand, and Inventory Data - The report presents the seasonal data of total inventory, production, and apparent consumption for cold - rolled coils and medium - plates [69].

二 〇 二 五 年 度 2025 年 9 月 21 日 国债期货周报 （正文） 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 | 唐立 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021100 | Tangli2@gtht.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 虞堪 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002804 | yukan@gtht.com | 报告导读： ◼ 摘要： 风险提示： 货币政策力度不及预期、权益市场情绪超预期 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 ◼ 国债期货上周持续回调，超长端表现较弱。 ◼ 维持中期大方向看震荡偏空的观点。 期货研究 1. 周度聚焦与行情跟踪 国债期货合约周度持续回调，超长端表现较弱。 期货研究 2. 流动性监控与曲线跟踪 图 4：流动性监控与曲线跟踪 资料来源：Wind，国泰君安期货研究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 3 图 1：活跃合约走势 图 2：活跃合约周度涨跌幅 资料来源：Wind，国泰君安期货研究 资料来源：Wind，国泰君安期货研究 100 105 110 115 120 125 2024-01 2024-02 2024-03 2024-04 2024-05 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating was provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - This week, the view on natural rubber is oscillating weakly. With the supply peak season reducing the upward momentum of raw materials, the pre - holiday inventory replenishment of downstream tire factories is basically completed, and the risk - aversion sentiment of funds before the National Day is increasing. It is expected that RU will oscillate weakly [85][86]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Industry News - In August 2025, China's rubber tire outer - tube production was 102.954 million pieces, a year - on - year increase of 1.5%. From January to August, the production was 795.467 million pieces, a year - on - year increase of 1.6% [5]. - In the first eight months of 2025, China's rubber tire export volume reached 6.5 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.1%; the export value was 114.2 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.6% [5]. - The eight - department work plan aims for annual automobile sales of about 32.3 million in 2025, a year - on - year increase of about 3%, with new energy vehicle sales of about 15.5 million, a year - on - year increase of about 20% [6]. - Nigeria aims to contribute at least 12% of the global rubber production [7]. 3.2 Market Trends - This week, both domestic and foreign markets first rose and then fell. Japanese smoked sheets fell the most, followed by standard rubber. On September 19, 2025, the closing price of RU2601 was 15,535 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 1.80%; the closing price of NR2601 was 12,395 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 1.98% [9][11]. 3.3 Basis and Spread - As of September 19, 2025, the basis of whole - milk and RU01 was - 835 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 15 yuan/ton; the 01 - 05 spread was 5 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 125.00% [15]. - RU - NR, RU - BR, and NR - SGX TSR20 spreads decreased, while the RU - JPX RSS3 spread increased [17]. - The spreads of Thai mixed - RU01, Malaysian mixed - RU01, 3L - RU01, and African No. 10 rubber - RU01 were - 805 yuan/ton, - 855 yuan/ton, - 335 yuan/ton, and - 3,194.29 yuan/ton respectively, with month - on - month increases of 4.17%, 3.93%, 35.58%, and 0.62% [20][21][22]. - The spread of whole - milk - Thai mixed decreased, while the spread of 3L - Thai mixed increased [23]. 3.4 Substitute Prices - This week, the offer price of the imported rubber market declined. The mainstream offer price of the domestic natural rubber spot market decreased. The downstream of the substitute butadiene rubber market maintained a wait - and - see attitude and purchased at low prices [20][28]. 3.5 Capital Trends - The virtual - to - physical ratio of RU increased slightly, and the settled funds increased slightly. The virtual - to - physical ratio of NR continued to decline, and the settled funds continued to decline [31]. 3.6 Supply - In Thailand, the rainfall in the southern region is slightly lower than the same period, and the rainfall in the northeastern region is at a seasonal high [36]. - In China, Yunnan and Hainan are still in the rainy season [38]. - Raw material prices are differentiated. The price of Thai cup lumps decreased, the price of Thai latex increased, and the price of Yunnan latex decreased [40]. - Thai rubber processing profits generally recovered, while Hainan concentrated latex profits were under pressure [49]. - In July, Thailand's natural rubber exports increased month - on - month, with a significant year - on - year decrease in standard rubber exports and a low year - on - year level in latex exports [52]. - In August, Indonesia's natural rubber exports to China continued to grow rapidly, with significant year - on - year and month - on - month increases in standard rubber and mixed rubber exports to China [58]. - In July, Vietnam's natural rubber exports increased seasonally, with a high year - on - year level. The exports of standard rubber and latex to China increased significantly [62]. - In August, Cote d'Ivoire's natural rubber exports were at a high year - on - year level, and the exports to China were also at a high year - on - year level [66]. - In August, China imported 5.208 million tons of natural rubber (including mixed and composite rubber), a month - on - month increase of 9.68% and a year - on - year increase of 5.39% [69]. 3.7 Demand - During the cycle, the capacity utilization rate of sample tire enterprises fluctuated slightly. Tire inventory rebounded slightly. In August, the exports of all - steel and semi - steel tires decreased month - on - month but remained at a relatively high year - on - year level. In July, the sales volume of heavy - duty trucks continued to recover month - on - month and year - on - year; in August, the sales volume of passenger cars increased month - on - month and year - on - year [72][75]. 3.8 Inventory - As of September 12, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory continued to decline, with an expanded decline compared to the previous period. The futures inventory of RU decreased the most, and the inventory in Qingdao continued to decline slightly [78]. - As of September 19, 2025, the futures inventory of natural rubber in the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 1.549 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.10%; the futures - spot inventory was 1.968 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.54% [82]. 3.9 This Week's View Summary - This week's view on natural rubber is oscillating weakly. The upward momentum of raw materials weakens during the supply peak season, the pre - holiday inventory replenishment of downstream tire factories is basically completed, and the risk - aversion sentiment of funds before the National Day is increasing. It is expected that RU will oscillate weakly. The recommended strategies are to wait and see or take a short - selling approach on rallies for single - side trading, and to observe for inter - period and inter - variety trading [85][86].

Report Overview - Report Title: Fuel Oil and Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil Weekly Report - Report Date: September 21, 2025 - Analyst: Liang Kefang from Guotai Junan Futures Research Institute [1] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the prices of fuel oil and low-sulfur fuel oil still fluctuated, but the amplitude significantly narrowed. For high-sulfur fuel oil, Middle East exports remained high, and the spot market transaction premium in the Asia-Pacific region continued to be below 0. There is a possibility of shipments from Northwest Europe to Asia, making it difficult for the Asia-Pacific low-sulfur market price to improve. For low-sulfur fuel oil, the previous strength of the Asia-Pacific low-sulfur price has basically disappeared. The shutdown of downstream facilities in Nigeria may continue to provide support in the future, but due to high port inventories and the price difference between the domestic and foreign markets, the domestic LU futures price is unlikely to turn strongly bullish. - The estimated value range is 2650 - 2900 for FU and 3300 - 3500 for LU. - Strategies include: 1) Unilateral: The bottom support of FU is emerging, while LU is weakening marginally. 2) Inter - period: FU and LU will maintain their current structures. 3) Inter - commodity: The cracking spread of FU will fluctuate at a high level; the LU - FU spread may still contract slightly in the short term. [4] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Supply - **Refinery Operations**: Data on the capacity utilization rates of Chinese refineries (crude oil: atmospheric and vacuum distillation), independent refineries, and major refineries are presented, covering the period from 2016 - 2025. [6] - **Global Refinery Maintenance**: Data on the maintenance volumes of global FCC, CDU, hydrocracking, and coking units are provided, spanning from 2018 - 2025. [13][14][15] - **Domestic Refinery Fuel Oil Production and Commercial Volume**: Data on the monthly production of fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, and domestic commercial volume of fuel oil in China are shown, covering 2018 - 2025. [18] 3.2 Demand - **Domestic and Foreign Fuel Oil Demand Data**: Data on the monthly actual consumption of marine fuel oil in China, the monthly sales volume of fuel oil bunkering in Singapore, and the monthly apparent consumption of fuel oil in China are presented, covering 2018 - 2025. [22] 3.3 Inventory - **Global Fuel Oil Spot Inventory**: Data on the heavy oil inventory in Singapore, the fuel oil inventory in European ARA, the heavy distillate inventory in Fujairah, and the residual fuel oil inventory in the US are provided, covering 2018 - 2025. [25][26][28] 3.4 Price and Spread - **Asia - Pacific Regional Spot FOB Prices**: Data on the FOB prices of 3.5% and 0.5% fuel oil in Fujairah, Singapore, and other regions are presented, covering 2018 - 2025. [32][34][36] - **European Regional Spot FOB Prices**: Data on the FOB prices of 3.5% and 1% fuel oil in Northwest Europe, the Mediterranean, etc. are provided, covering 2018 - 2025. [38][39][41] - **US Regional Fuel Oil Spot Prices**: Data on the FOB prices of 3.5% and 0.5% fuel oil in the US Gulf, the cargo price of high - sulfur fuel oil in New York Harbor, and the price of low - sulfur straight - run fuel oil in USAC are presented, covering 2018 - 2025. [44][45] - **Paper and Derivative Prices**: Data on the high - sulfur and low - sulfur swaps in Northwest Europe and Singapore, as well as the prices of LU and FU futures contracts, are provided, covering 2024 - 2025. [48][49][53] - **Fuel Oil Spot Spread**: Data on the high - and low - sulfur spread, viscosity spread, and cracking spread in Singapore, as well as the 3.5% cracking spread in Northwest Europe, are presented, covering 2018 - 2025. [56][57][58] - **Global Fuel Oil Paper Monthly Spread**: Data on the M1 - M2 and M2 - M3 spreads of high - and low - sulfur fuel oil in Singapore and Northwest Europe are provided, covering 2022 - 2025. [62] 3.5 Import and Export - **Domestic Fuel Oil Import and Export Data**: Data on the monthly import and export volumes of fuel oil (excluding biodiesel) in China are presented, covering 2018 - 2025. [66][67] - **Global High - Sulfur Fuel Oil Import and Export Data**: Data on the weekly import and export volume changes of high - sulfur fuel oil in regions such as China, the Middle East, the US, and Russia are provided. [70][71] - **Global Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil Import and Export Data**: Data on the weekly import and export volume changes of low - sulfur fuel oil in regions such as Singapore + Malaysia, China, the US, and the Middle East are provided. [73] 3.6 Futures Market Indicators and Internal - External Spreads - **Review**: This week, the fuel oil prices in the Asia - Pacific region generally declined, and the Zhoushan market moved in tandem. In terms of spreads, the domestic FU and LU were relatively stronger than the overseas market, and the premium and discount improved. - **Logic**: This week, the spot prices at home and abroad generally declined. Due to the high inventory in the Singapore market, the overseas spot prices were generally weak. In the domestic market, FU started to rebound from the bottom, and the internal - external spread was repaired. Similarly, for LU, because the newly issued quota decreased year - on - year, the spot supply at ports will not increase significantly in the future, so the internal - external spread of low - sulfur fuel oil also improved. [76] 3.7 FU and LU Position and Volume Changes - Data on the trading volume and open interest of fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil futures contracts (main contract, continuous contract, etc.) are presented, covering 2020 - 2025. [87][89][92] 3.8 FU and LU Warehouse Receipt Quantity Changes - Data on the warehouse receipt quantity changes of FU and LU are presented, covering 2020 - 2025. [99][100]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For palm oil, the fundamental drivers were temporarily sufficient last week, and the market was gradually digesting the callback pressure caused by the expected inventory build - up in the producing areas. It mainly fluctuated with the sentiment of US soybean oil and domestic commodities this week. Although there is a callback window in September, low - level long - position building for palm oil will be the main theme in the second half of the year [1][2][4]. - For soybean oil, before the fourth quarter, US soybean oil will mainly oscillate in the range of 50 - 56 cents per pound. If the policies regarding import raw material subsidy differences and redistribution are finalized, the policy negatives for US soybean oil may be exhausted. Domestic soybean oil may benefit from the rise of the soy complex after the National Day, and there will be opportunities to build long positions in soybean oil after palm oil completes its bottom - seeking oscillation in September [3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Last Week's Viewpoints and Logic - Palm oil: The fundamental drivers were temporarily sufficient, and the market was digesting the callback pressure from the expected inventory build - up in the producing areas. The palm oil 01 contract fell 0.28% last week [1]. - Soybean oil: The market's concern about the shortage of soybeans in the fourth quarter eased. The soybean oil price had limited upward momentum, and the 01 contract fell 0.10% last week due to the lack of progress in soybean procurement in Sino - US negotiations and the weak rebound of US soybeans [1]. 3.2 This Week's Viewpoints and Logic Palm oil - Demand: European and American gasoline and diesel cracks are at a year - on - year high, and the procurement price of European SAF and UCO from China is still rising. The demand support from Europe shows no sign of ending [2]. - Supply: In September, increased rainfall may cause the monthly output to remain flat or decline. The overall output is estimated to be in the range of 1.8 - 1.85 million tons, with August likely to be the annual output peak. Indonesia's supply may experience marginal easing. The combined inventory of Indonesia and Malaysia will accumulate until October and then decline rapidly [2]. - Inventory: Malaysia's inventory in September may hover around 2.3 million tons. India's palm oil imports may be suppressed, and China's demand may not be effectively stimulated unless Malaysia's September output greatly exceeds expectations [2]. - Price: Pay attention to the domestic macro - sentiment, the support of US soybean oil at 50 - 52 cents per pound, and India's search for additional import cost - effectiveness of palm oil. Wait for the矛盾 accumulation in the fourth quarter [2][4]. Soybean oil - US soybean oil: Before the fourth quarter, it will mainly oscillate in the range of 50 - 56 cents per pound. If the policy is finalized, it will help reduce inventory and realize the expected valuation [3]. - Domestic soybean oil: It depends on the smoothness of US soybean procurement. If the Sino - US trade issue persists and causes a soybean import gap, there will be opportunities to build long positions in soybean oil [3][4]. 3.3 Disk Basic Market Data - Price: Palm oil main contract fell 0.28%, soybean oil main contract fell 0.10%, rapeseed oil main contract rose 1.66%, Malaysian palm oil main contract fell 0.47%, and CBOT soybean oil main contract fell 2.94% [6]. - Volume and Open Interest: The trading volume and open interest of various varieties showed different changes [6]. - Spreads: The spreads between different varieties and contracts showed different trends, such as the 13.36% increase in the rapeseed - soybean 01 spread [6]. - Warehouse Receipts: The number of warehouse receipts for palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil changed compared with last week [6]. 3.4 Core Fundamentals of Oils - Production Forecast: Malaysia's palm oil production in September is estimated to be 1.8 - 1.85 million tons [8]. - Inventory Situation: Malaysia's palm oil inventory is expected to increase slightly in September, and Indonesia's inventory is expected to remain low after the second quarter [8][9]. - Price - related: The FOB price difference between Indonesia and Malaysia slightly rebounded, and the fruit bunch price in North Sumatra recovered [9]. - Export Data: Malaysia's palm oil export volume from September 1 - 20 was 1,010,032 tons, an 8.7% increase compared with the same period last month [9]. - Other Indicators: The POGO spread oscillated at a high level, and the import profit of Indian palm oil was significantly lower than that of soybean and sunflower oils [9][12].

Report Overview - The report focuses on the nickel and stainless steel industries, analyzing their fundamentals, inventory changes, and market news [1][2]. 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints - **Nickel Market**: The fundamentals of Shanghai nickel show that the resonance of real - world inventory accumulation and weak expectations suppresses prices, and the Indonesian nickel mine issue increases short - selling risks. The surplus in nickel is mainly in the ferronickel segment, with a pattern of increasing supply and weak demand. The expected commissioning of pure nickel in the second half of the year puts pressure on prices, but the substitution of nickel plates with ferronickel in the alloy sector has increased. The marginal improvement in non - standard nickel fundamentals shows some de - stocking, but there is still a need for more pure nickel to be re - allocated or cleared to resolve the inventory accumulation contradiction. Indonesian news may significantly weaken short - sellers' confidence [1]. - **Stainless Steel Market**: There is a game between short - term supply - demand logic and long - term "cost - performance trading", and steel prices are oscillating. Short - term supply and demand lack drivers. The demand side has issues such as tariff contradictions and weak post - production - cycle consumption, and the supply side has adjusted production. Although the supply - demand mismatch has slightly eased, supply elasticity may limit the upside space. The cost - profit situation also restricts the downside space [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamentals 3.1.1 Nickel Fundamentals - China has suspended an unofficial subsidy for importing copper and nickel from Russia, which may marginally weaken the import demand. The global refined nickel's visible inventory has returned to an increasing trend, with a weekly increase of 9,810 tons to 264,382 tons, and the market's expectation of implicit restocking has slowed down. The surplus in nickel is concentrated in the ferronickel segment, with a pattern of increasing supply and weak demand. The expected commissioning of pure nickel in the second half of the year puts pressure on prices, but the substitution of nickel plates with ferronickel in the alloy sector has increased, and the inventory accumulation trend may suppress nickel prices. The marginal improvement in non - standard nickel fundamentals shows some de - stocking, but more pure nickel needs to be re - allocated or cleared to resolve the inventory accumulation contradiction. Indonesian news may significantly weaken short - sellers' confidence, as over 148 hectares of a nickel mine in Indonesia have been taken over, affecting the monthly nickel ore output by about 600 metal tons. There are also other potential risks in Indonesia, such as the government's requirement for enterprises to resubmit the 2026 RKAB budget in October 2025, which may limit the decline in nickel ore premiums [1]. 3.1.2 Stainless Steel Fundamentals - Short - term supply and demand lack drivers. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of demand has significantly converged compared to previous years, with the apparent demand growth rate dropping to 2.0%. The supply side experienced a "de - valuation - de - production" phase from June to July, and the year - on - year supply growth rate has also significantly converged, with the cumulative year - on - year growth rate falling to 2.4%. The reduction in production by an Indonesian steel mill has led to a 27% decline in imports, and the supply - demand mismatch has slightly eased, with the inventory centers of factories and society both decreasing. However, supply elasticity may limit the upside space, as production increased in August and is expected to continue to increase in September, with a 6% month - on - month increase to 3.45 million tons in September, and the cumulative year - on - year growth rate is expected to recover to 3.2%. The 300 - series reaches 1.81 million tons, with a cumulative year - on - year/ month - on - month increase of 4.8%/5.2%. Since the absolute inventory levels of the upstream and mid - stream in the real - world have not been digested to a neutral or low level, if the valuation is high, it may lead to expectations of supply elasticity release, and downstream procurement is cautious. In the short - term cost and profit segment, after the marginal return to the fundamental logic, combined with the de - stocking and valuation repair in the ferronickel segment and the increase in the chromium iron tender procurement price, steel mill profits have been squeezed, and the cash profits of non - leading steel mills from warehouse delivery have basically converged, so the cost - support logic also limits the imagination of the downside space [2]. 3.2 Inventory Changes - **Nickel Inventory**: China's social nickel inventory increased by 144 tons to 39,298 tons, including an increase of 1,851 tons in warehouse receipt inventory to 23,529 tons, a decrease of 737 tons in spot inventory to 11,679 tons, and a decrease of 970 tons in bonded area inventory to 4,090 tons. LME nickel inventory increased by 9,666 tons to 225,084 tons [3]. - **Ferronickel Inventory**: On September 15, the SMM ferronickel inventory was 28,652 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 14% and a year - on - year increase of 26%. The inventory pressure is high, but it is continuously easing on the margin [5]. - **Stainless Steel Inventory**: On September 18, the total social inventory of stainless steel was 987,082 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.51%. Among them, the total inventory of cold - rolled stainless steel was 598,806 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.17%, and the total inventory of hot - rolled stainless steel was 388,276 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 6.38% [5]. - **Nickel Ore Inventory in Chinese Ports**: The nickel ore inventory in 14 Chinese ports increased by 139,500 wet tons to 14.0011 million wet tons, including 13.4823 million wet tons of Philippine nickel ore. Classified by nickel ore grade, there are 8.1456 million wet tons of low - nickel high - iron ore and 5.8555 million wet tons of medium - and high - grade nickel ore [5]. 3.3 Market News - Indonesia plans to shorten the mining quota period from three years to one year to improve industry governance and better control coal and ore supplies. The government - approved 2025 RKAB production is 364 million tons, higher than the 2024 target of 319 million tons [6]. - Two nickel - iron smelting industrial parks in Indonesia have suspended all EF production lines due to long - term production losses, and the shutdown is expected to affect the monthly nickel - iron output by about 1,900 metal tons [6]. - Indonesia's energy and mineral resources department requires mining and coal - mining companies to resubmit the 2026 RKAB starting from October 2025 [7]. - A steel mill in Shandong has started maintenance due to capacity limitations, with an annual production reduction target of 5%, and has temporarily suspended the delivery obligations under long - term supply agreements signed in August [7]. - The Indonesian president stated that illegal mining will be severely punished, and reports of 1,063 illegal mines have been received. The Indonesian forestry working group has taken over more than 148 hectares of a nickel mine in PT Weda Bay Nickel, accounting for 0.3% of the total mine area, and it is expected to affect the monthly nickel ore output by about 600 metal tons [8]. - China has suspended an unofficial subsidy for importing copper and nickel from Russia [1][8].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the week of September 19, both the corn spot and futures markets declined. Newly harvested grains are gradually coming onto the market, and prices are weakening [1][2]. - The price of CBOT corn dropped by 1.4% in the week of September 19. The harvest pace in the US corn - growing belt is accelerating, and the rebound of the US dollar index has also pressured commodities priced in dollars [3]. - Corn starch inventory has decreased. As the Double Festival approaches, the downstream demand for the Double Festival stocking has gradually started, and the downstream terminal demand has slowly improved [5]. - In the short - term, the futures market will mainly fluctuate. The price decline rate is expected to be slow under the background of low carry - over stocks. Attention should be paid to the selling mentality after the new grains are listed [7]. Summary According to the Catalog 1. Corn Market Review Spot Market - As of September 19, the national average corn price was 2360.39 yuan/ton, a decrease of 26 yuan/ton from the previous week. Different regions had different price ranges [1]. Futures Market - In the week of September 19, the futures market declined. The main contract (C2511) had a high of 2200 yuan/ton, a low of 2156 yuan/ton, and a closing price of 2168 yuan/ton. The corn starch main 2511 contract closed at 2463 yuan/ton on September 19. The basis of the corn main C2511 contract strengthened [2]. 2. Corn Market Outlook CBOT Corn - In the week of September 19, CBOT corn futures dropped 1.4%. The harvest in the US corn - growing belt accelerated, and the dollar index rebound pressured commodities [3]. Wheat Price and Corn Auction - As of September 18, the national average wheat price was 2436 yuan/ton. The demand was sluggish, and the market was oversupplied. The feed substitution advantage of wheat was weakened, and the feed consumption demand decreased. There were various corn auction transactions with different planned and actual transaction volumes and changing transaction rates [4]. Corn Starch Inventory - As of the week of September 18, the total inventory of corn starch in the main producing areas was 861,800 tons, a slight decrease of 13,400 tons from the previous period, a decline of 1.53%, but an increase of 12.92% compared to the same period last year [5]. New Grain Listing - The prices of dry and wet grains are diverging, with the Northeast being slightly stronger and North China being weaker. In late September, the supply of new grains is expected to increase. The short - term futures market will mainly fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the selling mentality after the new grains are listed [7].

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report Group 2: Core Views - The spot price of live pigs is weakly operating, and the futures price is also in a weak state. The 9 - month supply and demand of live pigs both increase, but due to the inventory cycle turning from inventory accumulation to de - stocking and the production capacity cycle entering the incremental release stage, the probability of a weak peak season before the double festivals increases, and the spot price is still in the process of finding the bottom [2][3] - The LH2511 contract in the futures market is currently in a situation of high - capacity realization, high inventory, and high premium. It is temporarily anchored at the self - breeding and self - raising cost of 12,000 yuan/ton. Consider shorting the valuation of the May contract, and pay attention to stop - profit and stop - loss [4] Group 3: Summary by Directory This Week's Market Review (9.5 - 9.21) - **Spot Market**: The price of live pigs is weakly operating. The price of 20KG piglets in Henan is 27.4 yuan/kg, the price of live pigs in Henan is 13.48 yuan/kg, and the price of 50KG binary sows nationwide is 1,595 yuan/head, all remaining unchanged from last week. The supply is still loose, and the demand is weak. The average slaughter weight nationwide is 124.72KG, with a month - on - month increase of 0.24% [2] - **Futures Market**: The price of the live - pig futures LH2511 contract is weakly operating. The highest price is 13,335 yuan/ton, the lowest price is 12,770 yuan/ton, and the closing price is 12,825 yuan/ton, down from 13,255 yuan/ton last week. The basis of the LH2511 contract is 105 yuan/ton, down from 225 yuan/ton last week [2] Next Week's Market Outlook (9.22 - 9.28) - **Spot Market**: The spot price of live pigs is expected to operate weakly. In September, the supply pressure is large, and the demand has a seasonal increase. The inventory cycle is changing from inventory accumulation to de - stocking, and the production capacity cycle is in the incremental release stage, so the probability of a weak peak season before the double festivals increases [3] - **Futures Market**: The LH2511 contract is currently facing high - capacity realization, high inventory, and high premium. It is temporarily anchored at 12,000 yuan/ton. The price of piglets is expected to continue to decline, and it is considered to short the valuation of the May contract. The short - term support level of the LH2511 contract is 12,000 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 13,500 yuan/ton [4] Key Data - **Basis and Monthly Spread**: This week's basis is 105 yuan/ton, and the LH2511 - LH2601 monthly spread is - 525 yuan/ton [9] - **Production and Import**: In July, the pork output is 5.011 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 5.4%; the pork import is 88,300 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.18% [12]