2025 年 07 月 28 日 | | | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 短纤2508 | 6512 | 6422 | 90 | PF08-09 | -8 | -10 | 2 | | PF | 短纤2509 | 6520 | 6432 | 88 | PF09-10 | -50 | -106 | 56 | | | 短纤2510 | 6570 | ୧୧38 | 32 | PF基差 | 80 | 1 ୧୫ | -88 | | | 短纤持仓量 | 271130 | 268777 | 2353 | 短纤华东现货价格 | 6. 600 | 6. 600 | 0 | | | 短纤成交量 | 232464 | 333167 | -100703 | 短纤产销率 | 71% | ୧୨% | 2% | | | | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | | 瓶片2508 | ୧୦3୧ | 6018 | 18 | PR08-09 | -6 | 32 | ...

Group 1: Report Overview - Report date: July 28, 2025 [1] - Report title: "Pigs: Strong Reality, Weak Expectations, Structural Switch to Trend Reverse Spread" [1] - Analysts: Zhou Xiaoqiu, Wu Hao [1] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 3: Core View - The current situation of the pig market is characterized by strong reality and weak expectations, with the spread structure switching to a reverse spread. The short - term support level for the LH2509 contract is 13,500 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 15,000 yuan/ton [4] Group 4: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 4.1 Pig Fundamental Data - **Spot prices**: Henan's spot price is 14,180 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton; Sichuan's is 13,600 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton; and Guangdong's is 15,440 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - **Futures prices**: The price of the pig 2509 contract is 14,385 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton; the 2511 contract is 14,385 yuan/ton, up 175 yuan/ton; and the 2601 contract is 14,615 yuan/ton, up 65 yuan/ton [2] - **Trading volume and open interest**: For the 2509 contract, the trading volume is 57,043 lots, down 22,144 lots, and the open interest is 62,296 lots, down 168 lots; for the 2511 contract, the trading volume is 23,077 lots, up 1415 lots, and the open interest is 50,062 lots, up 3688 lots; for the 2601 contract, the trading volume is 24,645 lots, down 2465 lots, and the open interest is 41,503 lots, up 1681 lots [2] - **Spreads**: The 2509 basis is - 205 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan/ton; the 2511 basis is - 205 yuan/ton, down 225 yuan/ton; the 2601 basis is - 435 yuan/ton, down 115 yuan/ton; the 9 - 11 spread is 0 yuan/ton, down 155 yuan/ton; the 11 - 1 spread is - 230 yuan/ton, up 110 yuan/ton [2] 4.2 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity is 0, with a range of [-2, 2]. -2 indicates the most bearish view, and 2 indicates the most bullish view [3] 4.3 Market Logic - Currently in the off - season of consumption, downstream digestion ability is limited. Although group farms have not increased supply, some small - scale farmers' willingness to sell has increased, causing the spot price to fall rapidly. The market expects a price increase from late July to early August, which may lead to more concentrated sales. The macro sentiment strongly supports the far - end contracts, leading to a spread structure switch to a reverse spread. Piglet purchases will enter the off - season in August, and the 03 contract will enter the piglet pricing period, where production capacity and cost logic may have an impact [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating [1][2][4] 2. Core View of the Report - Short - term high - level correction and medium - term entry into a volatile pattern. In the short term, with a large amount of speculative funds leaving the market on Friday night, the commodity index dropped from a high, and methanol futures followed suit. Also, as the basis strengthens, it is expected to release the liquidity of spot and futures sources in the spot market, bringing supply - side selling pressure. In the medium term, methanol is expected to fluctuate. The "anti - involution" policy and supply - side optimization expectations support the overall valuation of commodities, and the domestic methanol maintenance volume has increased while the July import volume is low, leading to a short - term contraction in domestic supply and unexpected inventory reduction at ports [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market**: The closing price of the methanol main contract (09 contract) was 2,519 yuan/ton, up 39 yuan from the previous day; the settlement price was 2,500 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan. The trading volume was 991,786 lots, a decrease of 261,148 lots; the open interest was 663,505 lots, an increase of 31,318 lots; the number of warehouse receipts was 10,134 tons, unchanged. The trading turnover was 2.479362 billion yuan, a decrease of 0.609219 billion yuan. The basis was - 10 yuan, an increase of 5 yuan; the spread between MA09 and MA01 was - 68 yuan, an increase of 2 yuan [2] - **Spot Market**: The Jiangsu ex - tank price was 2,475 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan; the Inner Mongolia price was 2,040 yuan/ton, unchanged; the northern Shaanxi price was 2,070 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; the Shandong price was 2,320 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan [2] 3.2 Spot News - No specific information provided [3] 3.3 Futures Research - **Inventory Situation**: This week, the methanol port inventory in the port area had an unexpected reduction, with the unloading speed far lower than expected. The visible unloading of foreign vessels was only 9.20 tons, and the slow ship - entering speed in Zhejiang dragged down the unloading. In the Jiangsu and Zhejiang areas, the pick - up and consumption were stable, and the inventory in East China decreased significantly. The inventory in the South China port continued to accumulate. In Guangdong, both imported and domestic vessels arrived, but the downstream demand was weak, and the inventory increased. In Fujian, the inventory increased slightly [4] - **Price Trend**: Short - term correction and medium - term volatility. In the short term, due to the departure of speculative funds and the strengthening of the basis, methanol futures corrected. In the medium term, it will fluctuate because of the "anti - involution" policy and the short - term contraction in supply [4] 3.4 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of methanol is - 1, indicating a relatively bearish view, with the value ranging from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Palm oil has reached its short - term upward limit, and investors should be wary of a decline in sentiment [1]. - Soybean oil will trade in a range, and investors should pay attention to the progress of Sino - US trade [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: - Palm oil主力: closing price (day session) was 8,936 yuan/ton with a decline of 1.85%, closing price (night session) was 8,922 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.16%. Trading volume was 673,443 lots, an increase of 45,660 lots, and open interest was 456,448 lots, a decrease of 59,879 lots [2]. - Soybean oil主力: closing price (day session) was 8,144 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.27%, closing price (night session) was 8,112 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.39%. Trading volume was 382,038 lots, a decrease of 18,122 lots, and open interest was 504,638 lots, a decrease of 17,389 lots [2]. - Rapeseed oil主力: closing price (day session) was 9,457 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.37%, closing price (night session) was 9,384 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.77%. Trading volume was 309,343 lots, an increase of 44,920 lots, and open interest was 210,783 lots, a decrease of 1,202 lots [2]. - **Spot Data**: - 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong: spot price was 9,000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton [2]. - First - grade soybean oil in Guangdong: spot price was 8,330 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan/ton [2]. - Fourth - grade imported rapeseed oil in Guangxi: spot price was 9,470 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - **Basis and Spread Data**: - Palm oil basis in Guangdong was 64 yuan/ton; soybean oil basis in Guangdong was 186 yuan/ton; rapeseed oil basis in Guangxi was 13 yuan/ton [2]. - The spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil futures was 521 yuan/ton; the spread between soybean oil and palm oil futures was - 792 yuan/ton [2]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - AmSpec reported that Malaysia's palm oil exports from July 1 - 25 were 896,484 tons, a 15.22% decrease compared to the same period last month [3]. - ITS reported that Malaysia's palm oil exports from July 1 - 25 were 1,029,585 tons, a 9.2% decrease compared to the same period last month [5]. - The Indian Vegetable Oil Producers Association (IPA) and the Indonesian Palm Oil Association (IPOA) signed a three - year agreement to deepen economic ties and ensure food security [5]. - The US Soybean Export Association (USSEC) believes it is reasonable for India to import soybeans from the US. In 2023/24, India imported 970,000 tons of non - GM soybeans from African countries, but in 2024/25, imports decreased by 84% to 154,000 tons [5]. - In Q2 2025, Brazil's biodiesel production increased by 5.6% year - on - year to 2.08 million tons, and from January to June, production reached 3.97 million tons (+7.3%). From April to June, soybean oil consumption as a raw material increased by 10% to 1.6 million tons, and its proportion in biodiesel production reached a record 79% in May and June. During this period, Brazil's soybean oil exports remained at 420,000 tons [6]. - After Argentina raised export taxes, soybean sales slowed down last week. As of July 16, farmers had pre - sold 26.64 million tons of 2024/25 soybeans, 400,000 tons more than the previous week; 450,000 tons of 2025/26 soybeans, 30,000 tons more than the previous week; and 40.71 million tons of 2023/24 soybeans, 10,000 tons more than the previous week [7]. - Expana raised its forecast for EU rapeseed production this year to 19.6 million tons, up from 19.2 million tons last month and a 16.7% increase from last year. The soybean production forecast remained unchanged at 3 million tons, a 3.2% decrease from last year [8]. - As of the week ending July 20, Canada's rapeseed exports increased by 151.12% to 202,400 tons compared to the previous week. From August 1, 2024, to July 20, 2025, exports were 9.437 million tons, a 40.93% increase from the same period last year. As of July 20, the commercial inventory was 1.1823 million tons [8]. - In the 2024/25 season, global rapeseed production decreased by 4.4 million tons, with EU production decreasing by 3 million tons and Ukraine's by 1 million tons to 3.7 million tons. Ukraine's rapeseed exports were 3.1 million tons, a 16% decrease year - on - year. In the 2025/26 season, due to adverse weather, UkrAgro Consult estimated Ukraine's rapeseed production to be between 2.7 - 2.8 million tons [9]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of palm oil is 0, and that of soybean oil is also 0, indicating a neutral outlook [10].

2025 年 7 月 28 日 品 研 究 焦炭：情绪兑现，宽幅震荡 焦煤：情绪兑现，宽幅震荡 刘豫武 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021518 liuyuwu025832@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 焦煤焦炭基本面数据 | | | JM2509 | 昨日收盘价(元/吨) 1259 | 涨跌(元/吨) 60. 5 | 流跌幅 5.05% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货价格 | | 12509 | 1763 | 28 | 1.61% | | | | | 昨日成交(手) | 昨日持仓(手) | 持仓变动(手) | | | | JM2509 | 2189213 | 519305 | 55992 | | | | J2509 | 65730 | 37395 | -746 | | | | 临汾低硫主焦 | 昨日价格(元/吨) 1450 | 前日价格(元/吨) 1400 | 涨跌(元/吨) 50 | | | 焦煤 | 山西仓单成本 | 924 | 924 | 0 | | | | 金泉蒙5精煤自提价 | 1200 | 1029 | 171 | | | | 吕梁低硫 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report Through macro - fundamental and technical analysis, the report forecasts the trends of various futures on July 28, 2025. Stock index futures are expected to oscillate strongly, while futures such as coking coal, glass, soda ash, polysilicon, lithium carbonate, alumina, industrial silicon, ferrosilicon, silicomanganese, silver, nickel, rebar, crude oil, PTA, PVC, methanol, and natural rubber are expected to oscillate weakly [1][2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Forecast - **Stock Index Futures**: On July 28, 2025, stock index futures are expected to oscillate strongly. For example, IF2509 has resistance levels at 4147 and 4168 points and support levels at 4100 and 4080 points; IH2509 has resistance levels at 2817 and 2828 points and support levels at 2786 and 2771 points; IC2509 has resistance levels at 6260 and 6300 points and support levels at 6190 and 6150 points; IM2509 has resistance levels at 6663 and 6700 points and support levels at 6561 and 6521 points [2]. - **Bond Futures**: The ten - year Treasury bond futures main contract T2509 and the thirty - year Treasury bond futures main contract TL2509 are likely to oscillate strongly on July 28, 2025. T2509 has resistance levels at 108.32 and 108.46 yuan and support levels at 108.01 and 107.91 yuan; TL2509 has resistance levels at 118.3 and 118.6 yuan and support levels at 117.6 and 117.3 yuan [2]. - **Precious Metal Futures**: The gold futures main contract AU2510 is likely to oscillate weakly on July 28, 2025, with support levels at 768.6 and 766.8 yuan/gram and resistance levels at 776.8 and 778.7 yuan/gram. The silver futures main contract AG2510 is likely to oscillate weakly and test support levels at 9055 and 9008 yuan/kg, with resistance levels at 9392 and 9447 yuan/kg [2][3]. - **Base Metal Futures**: Copper, aluminum, alumina, zinc, and nickel futures are expected to oscillate weakly on July 28, 2025. For example, the copper futures main contract CU2509 will test support levels at 78500 and 78000 yuan/ton, with resistance levels at 79300 and 79700 yuan/ton [3]. - **Industrial and Energy Futures**: Industrial silicon, polysilicon, lithium carbonate, rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coking coal, ferrosilicon, silicomanganese, glass, soda ash, caustic soda, crude oil, PTA, PVC, methanol, natural rubber, and 20 - grade rubber futures are expected to oscillate weakly on July 28, 2025. For instance, the coking coal futures main contract JM2509 will test support levels at 1115 and the limit - down price of 1100.5 yuan/ton, with resistance levels at 1290 and 1294 yuan/ton [1][3]. 3.2 Macro - news and Trading Tips - **Domestic News**: The Chinese government has taken a series of measures, including promoting free pre - school education, initiating the establishment of the World Artificial Intelligence Cooperation Organization, and the release of the "Artificial Intelligence Global Governance Action Plan". From January to June, the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size was 3436.5 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 1.8% [9][10]. - **International News**: The US and the EU have reached a 15% tariff agreement, but the European Parliament's International Trade Committee is dissatisfied with the agreement. The US June durable goods orders preliminary value decreased by 9.3% month - on - month [14][15]. 3.3 Commodity Futures - related Information - The CSRC has approved the registration of linear low - density polyethylene, polyvinyl chloride, and polypropylene monthly average price futures on the DCE. The DCE and GQEX have introduced trading limit measures for coking coal and lithium carbonate futures, which are expected to cool down the over - heated market [15][16]. - The GQEX is promoting the research and development of photovoltaic module futures, platinum, palladium futures, and lithium hydroxide futures, which are expected to be launched this year [16]. 3.4 Futures Market Analysis and Forecast - **Stock Index Futures**: On July 25, 2025, the main contracts of stock index futures generally declined slightly. The four major indexes (CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000) have risen for 5 consecutive weeks. The Chinese capital market has established the China Capital Market Society, and the CSRC plans to revise the "Corporate Governance Guidelines for Listed Companies" [22][24][25]. - **Bond Futures**: On July 25, 2025, the main contracts of bond futures mostly declined. The central bank carried out a large - scale reverse repurchase operation and MLF operation, with a net investment of 6018 billion yuan and 1000 billion yuan respectively [50]. - **Precious Metal Futures**: On July 25, 2025, the gold futures main contract AU2510 declined slightly, and the silver futures main contract AG2510 rebounded weakly [58][63]. - **Base Metal Futures**: On July 25, 2025, base metal futures such as copper, aluminum, and zinc generally declined slightly [69][73][81]. - **Industrial and Energy Futures**: On July 25, 2025, coking coal, ferrosilicon, silicomanganese, and other futures rose strongly, while crude oil futures rebounded slightly [106][107][118].

Key Points Summary 1. This Week's Key Focus - From July 27th to 30th, Vice Premier He Lifeng will hold economic and trade talks with the US in Sweden [2][3] - On July 30th at 20:30, the US Department of Commerce will release the initial value of the US Q2 GDP [2][10] - On July 31st at 02:00, the Fed will announce its interest - rate decision, expected to keep the federal funds rate unchanged [2][13] - On July 31st at 09:30, China will release July's official manufacturing PMI, non - manufacturing PMI, and composite PMI [2][14] - On July 31st at 20:30, the US will release the June PCE price index [2][18] - On August 1st at 20:30, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the July non - farm payrolls report [2][23] 2. This Week's Hotspot Preview July 28th - The third round of China - US economic and trade talks is held. The outcome may impact relevant futures prices, with August 12th being the deadline for the suspension of additional tariffs [3] July 29th - The US Conference Board will release the July consumer confidence index at 22:00. An index higher than the previous value (expected 95.9, previous 93) will help non - ferrous metal futures rise but suppress gold and silver futures [4] July 30th - Germany will release the initial value of Q2 GDP at 16:00. An expected quarter - on - quarter rate of - 0.1% (previous 0.4%) may slightly suppress non - ferrous metal, crude oil, and related commodity futures but help gold and silver futures [6] - The Eurozone will release the initial value of Q2 GDP at 17:00. Expected quarter - on - quarter rate of 0% (previous 0.6%) and year - on - year rate of 1.2% (previous 1.5%) may have a similar impact as Germany's data [7] - The Eurozone will release July's economic and industrial景气指数 at 17:00, with expected values of 94.8 (previous 94) and - 11 (previous - 12) respectively [8] - The US ADP will release the change in July ADP employment at 20:15. An expected increase of 75,000 (previous - 33,000) will help non - ferrous metal, crude oil, and related commodity futures but suppress gold and silver futures [9] - The US will release the initial value of Q2 GDP at 20:30. An expected annualized quarter - on - quarter rate of 2.5% (previous - 0.5%) will have a similar impact as the ADP employment data [10] - The Bank of Canada will announce its interest - rate decision and monetary policy report at 21:45, expected to keep the overnight lending rate at 2.75% [11] - The US EIA will release the change in EIA crude oil inventories for the week ending July 25th at 22:30. A continued decline (previous 3.169 million barrels) will help crude oil and related commodity futures [12] July 31st - The Fed will announce its interest - rate decision at 02:00, and Fed Chair Powell will hold a press conference at 02:30. Focus on the press - conference content and its impact on the futures market [13] - China will release July's official manufacturing and non - manufacturing PMI at 09:30, with expected values of 49.7 (same as previous) and 50.5 (same as previous) respectively [14] - The Bank of Japan will announce its interest - rate decision and outlook report at 11:00, and Governor Ueda will hold a press conference at 14:30, expected to keep the benchmark rate at 0.5% [15] - The Eurozone will release the June unemployment rate at 17:00, expected to be 6.3% (same as previous) [16] - The US will release June's personal spending and income at 20:30. Expected monthly rates of 0.4% (previous - 0.1%) for personal consumption expenditure and 0.2% (previous - 0.4%) for personal income may suppress gold and silver futures but help industrial futures other than gold and silver [17] - The US will release the June PCE price index at 20:30, with expected annual rates of 2.5% (previous 2.3%) for PCE and 2.7% (same as previous) for core PCE [18] - The US will release the number of initial jobless claims for the week ending July 26th at 20:30. An expected number of 215,000 (previous 217,000) may suppress gold and silver futures but help non - ferrous metal, crude oil, and related commodity futures [19] August 1st - China's Caixin manufacturing PMI for July will be released at 9:45. An expected value of 50.5 (previous 50.4) slightly lower than the previous value may slightly suppress industrial product futures and stock index futures but help treasury bond futures [20] - The Eurozone will release the July CPI initial value at 17:00. Expected annual rates of 1.9% (previous 2.0%) for the harmonized CPI and 2.3% (previous 2.4%) for the core harmonized CPI [22] - The US will release the July non - farm payrolls report at 20:30. Expected seasonally - adjusted new non - farm jobs of 110,000 (previous 147,000), an unemployment rate of 4.2% (previous 4.1%), and an average hourly wage annual rate of 3.8% (previous 3.7%). Fewer new jobs than the previous value will help gold and silver futures but suppress other commodity futures [23] - The US ISM will release the July manufacturing PMI at 22:00. An expected value of 49.5 (previous 49) slightly higher than the previous value will slightly help non - ferrous metal, crude oil, and related commodity futures but suppress gold and silver futures [24]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - Urea is experiencing a short - term high - level correction and will enter a mid - term oscillation pattern. In the short term, with a large amount of speculative funds leaving the market on Friday night, the commodity index has fallen from a high level, and urea futures are expected to follow suit. Also, with the strengthening of the basis, the liquidity of spot and futures sources in the spot market is expected to be released, bringing supply - side selling pressure to the spot market. In the medium term, urea is expected to oscillate mainly due to the ongoing anti - involution policy which supports the overall valuation of commodities, and the potential second - batch export of urea which may support the demand side. Overall, it is in a short - term correction with a unilateral weakening trend and is expected to oscillate in the medium term [3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market**: The closing price of the urea main contract was 1,803 yuan/ton (up from 1,785 yuan/ton), the settlement price was 1,798 yuan/ton (up from 1,782 yuan/ton), the trading volume was 236,179 lots, the open interest of the 09 contract was 171,609 lots (down 2,182 lots), the number of warehouse receipts was 2,523 tons (unchanged), and the trading volume was 849.507 million yuan (up 139.148 million yuan). The Shandong regional basis was - 13 (down from 25), the Fengxi - to - disk spread was - 113 (unchanged), the Dongguang - to - disk spread was - 23 (unchanged), and the UR09 - UR01 spread was - 4 (up from - 11) [1] - **Spot Market**: Among urea factory prices, Henan Xinlianxin was 1,850 yuan/ton (unchanged), Yankuang Xinjiang was 1,495 yuan/ton (up 35 yuan/ton), Shandong Ruixing was 1,810 yuan/ton (unchanged), Shanxi Fengxi was 1,690 yuan/ton (up 20 yuan/ton), Hebei Dongguang was 1,780 yuan/ton (unchanged), and Jiangsu Linggu was 1,880 yuan/ton (unchanged). Among trader prices, the Shandong region was 1,790 yuan/ton (down 20 yuan/ton), and the Shanxi region was 1,690 yuan/ton (up 20 yuan/ton). The supply - side indicators showed that the operating rate was 83.21% (up 1.04 percentage points) and the daily output was 192,650 tons (up 2,400 tons) [1] 2. Industry News - On July 23, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 858,800 tons, a decrease of 36,700 tons from the previous week, a month - on - month decrease of 4.10%. The inventory of domestic urea enterprises continued to decline this period, but the decline narrowed. With weak domestic demand, the overall order - taking and shipment of urea factories slowed down. However, due to some goods still being in the process of export collection and local downstream periodic bargain - hunting purchases, the overall urea factories showed a slight destocking. Some provinces saw an increase in enterprise inventory, while others saw a decrease. Overall, the urea trading has been weak for several consecutive days this week, and the second - batch export has not started yet. It is expected that the inventory of urea production enterprises will show a narrow - range oscillation pattern next week [1]

PVC：短期偏弱 商 品 研 究 2025 年 7 月 28 日 周五夜盘商品普遍大幅下跌，反内卷情绪减弱，短期情绪面和资金集中平仓影响仍较大，下周 PVC 预 计走势偏弱。PVC 在此轮反内卷过程中基本面并没有明显改善，考虑到 PVC 装置大多有持续维护升级改造， 目前反内卷政策也未涉及 PVC 行业，因此影响相对有限。 基本面看，PVC 行业利润在此轮反弹过程中大幅扩张。下半年看，供应端减产驱动不足，PVC 高产量， 高库存的结构难以缓解，因此市场后期仍会做空氯碱利润。此外，宏观方面关注 8 月份贸易战可能超预期 的风险。 高产量的结构短期难以改变：PVC 检修量低于 2023 年同期，高产量格局持续。一方面氯碱成本下滑， 另一方面 2025 年烧碱需求支撑尚可，维持较高利润，氯碱产业链以碱补氯，这也加大了 PVC 自身因亏损导 致大规模减产的难度。此外，未来仍有较多产能投产，尤其在 7-8 月将面临新增产能投放，预计投产达到 110 万吨，高产量格局短期难改变。 高库存的压力持续，出口需求也只能阶段性缓解：2025 年 PVC 出口市场竞争压力增大，出口仍会受印 度加征反倾销税和 BIS 认证影响，因此 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The sentiment in the industrial silicon and polysilicon markets has declined, and there is a risk of significant price drops in industrial silicon [1]. - The trend strength for both industrial silicon and polysilicon is -1, indicating a bearish outlook [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market**: - Industrial silicon (Si2509) had a closing price of 9,725 yuan/ton, with a significant decrease in trading volume compared to previous periods. Its open interest also decreased [1]. - Polysilicon (PS2509) had a closing price of 51,025 yuan/ton, and both trading volume and open interest declined [1]. - **Basis**: - The spot premium/discount for industrial silicon varied depending on the benchmark, with some showing changes compared to previous periods [1]. - The spot premium/discount for polysilicon (N - type re - feeding) was - 4,525 yuan/ton, with significant changes over different time intervals [1]. - **Price**: - The price of industrial silicon products such as East China oxygen - passed Si5530 and Yunnan Si4210 showed some increases compared to previous periods [1]. - The price of polysilicon (N - type re - feeding) was 46,500 yuan/ton, with an increase of 500 yuan/ton compared to T - 1 [1]. - **Profit**: - Silicon plant profits for Xinjiang and Yunnan new - standard 553 were negative, but showed some improvement compared to previous periods [1]. - Polysilicon enterprise profits were - 17.9 yuan/kg, with a slight improvement compared to T - 1 [1]. - **Inventory**: - Industrial silicon social inventory (including warehouse receipt inventory) was 53.5 million tons, with a decrease compared to previous periods [1]. - Polysilicon manufacturer inventory was 24.3 million tons, also showing a decrease [1]. - **Raw Material Cost**: - The prices of raw materials for industrial silicon such as silicon ore, washed coking coal, petroleum coke, and electrodes showed different trends, with some remaining stable and others changing slightly [1]. Macro and Industry News - In the first half of this year, Zhejiang purchased 12.6 million green certificates through the Beijing Power Trading Green Certificate Platform, equivalent to 12.6 billion kWh of electricity, ranking first in the State Grid's operating area [3].