铅产业链周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所·季先飞·首席分析师/有色及贵金属 组联席行政负责人 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 日期：2025年09月21日 强弱分析：中性，价格区间：16900-17500元/吨 铅精矿加工费走弱 0 5 10 15 20 25 01-02 01-12 01-22 02-05 02-19 03-03 03-14 03-26 04-08 04-19 05-05 05-16 05-28 06-09 06-20 07-02 07-14 07-25 08-06 08-18 08-29 09-10 09-23 10-10 10-22 11-03 11-14 11-26 12-08 12-19 12-31 万吨 五地总库存 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 01-02 01-14 01-26 02-07 02-19 03-03 03-15 03-27 04-09 04-21 05-06 05-18 05-30 06-11 06-23 07-05 07-17 07-29 08-10 08-22 09-03 09-15 09 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The price of lithium carbonate futures contracts showed a strong - running trend this week. The price is expected to fluctuate strongly due to the strong demand in the domestic energy - storage market, although demand may slow down temporarily after the pre - National Day replenishment ends [1][3] - The price of the futures main contract is expected to operate in the range of 70,000 - 75,000 yuan/ton. It is not recommended to conduct arbitrage, and it is suggested to carry out selling hedging for inventory later [4][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Trends - This week, the lithium carbonate futures contracts showed a strong - running trend. The 2511 contract closed at 73,960 yuan/ton, up 2,800 yuan/ton week - on - week; the 2601 contract closed at 74,040 yuan/ton, up 2,780 yuan/ton week - on - week; the spot price rose 1,050 yuan/ton to 73,500 yuan/ton [1] - The SMM spot - futures basis (2511 contract) fell 1,750 yuan/ton to - 460 yuan/ton, and the Fubao trader's premium/discount quote was - 255 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton week - on - week. The 2511 - 2601 contract spread was - 80 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton month - on - month [1] 3.2 Supply and Demand Fundamentals - **Raw Materials**: In September, the shipments of Australian mines and Chilean lithium salts increased. In the first three weeks of August and September, Australian mines shipped 213,000/238,000 tons, and Chilean lithium salts shipped 17,000/20,000 tons [2] - **Supply**: The weekly output continued to increase and reached a record high of 20,363 tons. The output before the shutdown of sub - standard plants was 19.98 million tons. The output of spodumene, salt lakes, and recycling effectively made up for the reduction in mica output [2] - **Demand**: Benefiting from the capacity - based electricity price compensation, the domestic energy - storage market exceeded expectations in terms of volume. In August, the energy - storage winning bids reached 25.8 GW, a year - on - year increase of 520%. In September, the lithium - battery output is expected to be 168.4 GWh, a month - on - month increase of 5%, including 130.1 GWh of LFP, a 6% month - on - month increase, and 32.8 GWh of ternary batteries, a 2% month - on - month increase. The 3C consumer end also exceeded expectations [2] - **Inventory**: The weekly lithium carbonate inventory decreased to 137,500 tons. The upstream inventory dropped to an absolute low, while the downstream inventory increased to an absolute high. The number of futures warehouse receipts increased to 39,484 tons [2] 3.3 Market Outlook - The demand in the domestic energy - storage market far exceeds market expectations. Although the lithium - salt output has exceeded the level before the shutdown of sub - standard plants, the social inventory continues to decline, and the price trend shows a strong - fluctuating pattern. After the pre - National Day replenishment ends and the rush - buying demand before September 30 due to the subsidies of the US "Big and Beautiful" Act comes to an end, the demand is expected to slow down temporarily but still remain strong [3] 3.4 Trading Strategies - **Unilateral Trading**: The price of the futures main contract is expected to operate in the range of 70,000 - 75,000 yuan/ton [4] - **Inter - period Trading**: The basis strengthens slightly, but the increase in warehouse receipts is obvious. Arbitrage is not recommended [4] - **Hedging**: As the basis is gradually repaired, it is recommended to conduct selling hedging for inventory later [5]

国泰君安期货·能源化工 尿素周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所 杨鈜汉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021541 日期：2025年09月21日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 资料来源：钢联，隆众资讯，国泰君安期货研究 本周尿素观点：趋势偏弱 • 本周(20250911-0917)，中国尿素生产企业产量：133万吨，较上期涨3.07万吨，环比涨2.36%。周期内新增1家企业装置停车，停车企业恢复6家（装置）企 业，同时延续上周期的装置变化，本周产量明显上涨。下周，中国尿素周产量预计140-141万吨附近，较本期明显上涨。下个周期预计1家企业计划停车， 4-5家停车企业恢复生产，考虑到短时的企业故障发生，延续上周期的变化，预期下个周期产量大概率会有明显增加。（隆众资讯） • 内需方面，内需持续偏弱。北方地区农业追肥需求基本结束，在今年农业需求总量有需求前置的背景下，追肥需求的同比增速出现明显下滑。此外，复 合肥行业近期产成品销售压力较大，开工率维持低位，对尿素原料采购需求较为有限，对高价尿素货源接受度低。 • 出口方面，目前三 ...

铜产业链周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所·季先飞·首席分析师/有色及贵金属 组联席行政负责人 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 日期：2025年09月21日 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 1 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 铜：国内补库预期以及美联储未来持续降息预期等，将支撑价格 强弱分析：中性，价格区间：79000-82000元/吨 预计国内铜社会库存将边际回落 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 01-02 01-11 01-20 01-29 02-11 02-24 03-06 03-17 03-27 04-08 04-18 04-29 05-13 05-23 06-03 06-13 06-24 07-04 07-15 07-25 08-05 08-15 08-26 09-05 09-16 09-27 10-14 10-24 11-04 11-14 11-25 12-05 12-16 12-26 万吨 国内铜社会总库存 2020 2021 2022 2023 ...

锡周报 国泰君安期货研究所 有色及贵金属 刘雨萱投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 日期：2025年9月21日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 锡：矛盾并不突出，触及区间下沿或有反弹 强弱分析：中性 价格区间：267000-275000元/吨 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 01-03 01-14 01-26 02-10 02-24 03-07 03-18 03-29 04-11 04-22 05-06 05-17 05-28 06-10 06-21 07-04 07-15 07-26 08-06 08-18 08-29 09-09 09-20 10-11 10-25 11-05 11-17 11-27 12-09 12-20 12-31 吨 SMM社会库存 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 -1000 -500 0 500 1000 1500 2000 01-02 01-14 0 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The strength - weakness analysis of the casting aluminum alloy industry is neutral [2] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the price of casting aluminum alloy showed a volatile and weak trend with a phased decline. With the callback of aluminum prices, the willingness of scrap aluminum traders to ship increased, and the market circulation improved marginally. The operating rate of the recycled aluminum industry continued to rise month - on - month, but there was obvious internal differentiation. The demand continued a mild recovery, and the pre - holiday inventory - building demand of downstream enterprises provided some support for the orders of recycled aluminum plants. It is expected that the price of casting aluminum alloy will maintain a high - level volatile trend [6]. - As of September 19, the inventory of aluminum alloy ingot factories and social inventory increased by 0.09 million tons to 13.22 million tons compared with the previous week, and the inventory pressure remained high. The supply shortage of raw materials persisted, and the domestic automobile sales in the second week of September decreased year - on - year. However, the "trade - in" policy had a prominent effect, and the fourth batch of funds would be issued in October as planned, which was conducive to stabilizing consumer confidence and boosting automobile consumption. With the arrival of "Golden September and Silver October", the automobile sales were expected to improve month - on - month [6]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Transaction End - Quantity and Price - The report presents the price differences (AD00 - 01, AD01 - 02, AD02 - 03), capital precipitation, trading volume, and open interest of casting aluminum alloy [9]. 3.2 Transaction End - Arbitrage 3.2.1 Inter - period Positive Spread Cost Calculation - The report calculates the cost of inter - period positive spread for casting aluminum alloy, including fixed costs (such as delivery and transaction fees) and floating costs (such as storage fees and capital costs). The total cost is 77 yuan/ton [12]. 3.2.2 Spot - Futures Arbitrage Cost Calculation - The market actual spot quotation fluctuates around the Baotai price. The calculated total cost of spot - futures arbitrage is 20,614.5 yuan/ton, including costs such as storage fees, capital costs, and registration costs [13][14]. 3.3 Supply End - Scrap Aluminum - The production of scrap aluminum is at a high level, and the social inventory is at a medium - high level in history. The import of scrap aluminum is also at a high level, with a relatively fast year - on - year growth rate. The refined - scrap price difference shows a trend of decline [16][21][26]. 3.4 Supply End - Recycled Aluminum - The price of Baotai ADC12 has been raised, and the price difference between recycled and primary aluminum has converged significantly. The regional price difference of casting aluminum alloy has strengthened and shows certain seasonal laws. The weekly operating rate of casting aluminum alloy has increased, while the monthly operating rate has decreased slightly. The monthly production of recycled aluminum alloy and its proportion in different regions are also presented. The cost of ADC12 is mainly composed of scrap aluminum, and it is currently above the break - even line. The factory inventory of casting aluminum alloy has decreased, while the social inventory is at a historical high. The import window of casting aluminum alloy is temporarily closed [33][38][43]. - The production and inventory of recycled aluminum rods are also analyzed. The production and its proportion in different regions are provided, as well as the factory inventory and its proportion [62][63][64]. 3.5 Demand End - Terminal Consumption - The production of fuel - powered vehicles is at a low level, which has an impact on die - casting consumption. The report also presents the production data of new energy vehicles, motorcycles, and household appliances, as well as the year - on - year change of PPI for auto parts and the monthly value of the automobile inventory warning index [69][70].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the content. 2. Report's Core View - The market fluctuates between anti - involution and crude oil price movements, with the industry's long - short sentiment remaining in a stalemate. Styrene's high - start in the peak season fails to reduce inventories, and there is increasing pressure on hard - rubber finished product inventories and external warehouses. Pure benzene's four downstream sectors are reducing their operations and entering a weakening phase. In the short term, the market will mainly be volatile [80]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Pure Benzene 3.1.1 Supply - Domestic pure benzene: The average monthly maintenance loss from August to September is 60,000 tons. New device production is weak overall, with production pressure concentrated from August to September (50,000 - ton increase in August and 100,000 - ton increase in September). The spot pressure of major pure benzene producers emerged in August [3][80]. - Imported pure benzene: Low imports in August led to relatively low port inventories. September imports are expected to be 400,000 - 430,000 tons, and imports are expected to rise in the fourth quarter, with an expected 500,000 - ton import in October. The external market still has large supply pressure [3][80]. 3.1.2 Demand - Styrene: There were few maintenance works in August, and the devices are operating at high capacity. From August to October, new styrene devices will be put into operation, with a monthly increase of about 20,000 - 30,000 tons. The high - supply pressure persists, and the entire styrene industry chain faces significant inventory pressure [3][80]. - Caprolactam: A 300,000 - ton new device in Hengyi Guangxi Qinzhou is planned to be put into operation from August to September. Recently, caprolactam plants increased their loads, but the inventories of CPL and PA6 products are high. Factories in Shandong and South China maintain high raw - material inventories [3][80]. - Phenol: New 400,000 - ton and 200,000 - ton devices of Zhenhai Refining & Chemical and Jilin Petrochemical were put into operation from July to August, and Shandong Ruilin plans to start production in October. High - volume production continues [3][80]. - Aniline: Jinmao Aluminum, Shandong Huatai, and Jiangsu Fuqiang recently restarted, and Wanhua Chemical (Fujian)'s new device has been put into operation. Yantai Wanhua plans maintenance from August to September. Aniline production is approaching its limit, and downstream MDI production is increasing. Leading enterprises still have room to replenish inventories and can absorb the increase in pure benzene production [3][80]. - 3S hard rubber downstream of styrene: In the peak season, there are high production, high inventory, and moderate profits. The core issue is how to solve the problem of high external and factory inventories [3][80]. 3.1.3 Valuation - Absolute price valuation: Based on a crude oil price of $65, the reasonable valuation of the BZ2603 contract is 5,800 - 5,900 yuan/ton. With the expected weakening of crude oil, the lowest valuation of BZ2603 is adjusted down to 5,550 yuan/ton [3][80]. - EB processing fee: Given the high port styrene inventory and high downstream raw - material inventory, the reasonable styrene processing fee is 1,000 - 1,100 yuan/ton. Positions that previously squeezed profits are being closed, and unexpected maintenance may be less than expected [3][80]. 3.1.4 Strategy - Unilateral: Short - term volatility, medium - term bearish [3][80]. - Inter - period: Styrene backwardation [3][80]. - Inter - variety: None currently [80]. 3.2 Styrene 3.2.1 Production and Inventory - In the first half of 2025, global styrene production contracted. Currently, styrene has high inventory, moderate profits, and high production [52][54]. 3.2.2 Downstream Market - ABS: Production continues to increase. The industry faces issues such as inventory and market price fluctuations [67]. - PS: Production and profit margins show certain trends, with attention to inventory and price changes [69][70]. - EPS: Production and profit margins also have their own characteristics, and capacity utilization and inventory levels are of concern [74][79].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report analyzes the soybean and related product markets from September 15 - 19, 2025, and predicts that the prices of Dalian soybean meal and soybean No. 1 futures may rebound next week (September 22 - 26, 2025). The domestic soybean meal market may correct its previous expectations due to the change in the expectation of China's purchase of US soybeans, while the domestic soybean No. 1 futures is expected to fluctuate with the market sentiment and focus on technical trading [1][5]. 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 Price and Market Trends of Futures - **US Soybean Futures**: Last week, the US soybean futures prices first rose and then fell. The main November contract of US soybeans had a weekly decline of 1.84%, and the main December contract of US soybean meal had a weekly decline of 1.42% [1]. - **Domestic Soybean Meal and Soybean No. 1 Futures**: The prices of domestic soybean meal and soybean No. 1 futures were weak. The main m2601 contract of soybean meal had a weekly decline of 2.11%, and the main a2511 contract of soybean No. 1 had a weekly decline of 1.39% [1]. 3.2 International Soybean Market Fundamentals - **US Soybean Sales and Shipment**: In the week of September 11, 2025, the net sales of US soybeans increased week - on - week, meeting expectations. The export shipment of 2025/26 US soybeans was about 840,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of about 88%; the cumulative export shipment was about 1.07 million tons, a year - on - year increase of about 41%. The current - year (2025/26) weekly net sales of US soybeans were about 922,000 tons, meeting expectations (400,000 - 1.5 million tons). The weekly net sales of US soybeans to China in the current crop year (2025/26) were 0 [1]. - **US Soybean Good - Quality Rate**: As of the week of September 15, 2025, the good - quality rate of US soybeans was 63%, down from the previous week's 64% and the same as last year's 64%, meeting market expectations, with a neutral - to - slightly - bullish impact [1]. - **Brazilian Soybean**: As of the week of September 19, 2025, the average weekly CNF premium of November Brazilian soybeans decreased, the average import cost increased slightly, and the average crushing profit on the futures market decreased. As of the week of September 11, 2025, the sowing progress of 2025/26 Brazilian soybeans was about 0.12%, ahead of last year's 0.06%. Currently, soybean sowing is mainly carried out in Paraná, and sowing has also started in Mato Grosso and São Paulo. However, due to low soil moisture, the sowing progress in Mato Grosso is slow [1]. 3.3 Domestic Soybean Meal Spot Market - **Trading Volume**: The trading volume of soybean meal decreased week - on - week. As of the week of September 19, 2025, the average daily trading volume of soybean meal in major domestic oil mills was about 130,000 tons, compared with about 170,000 tons in the previous week [2]. - **Pick - up Volume**: The pick - up volume of soybean meal increased slightly week - on - week. As of the week of September 18, 2025, the average daily pick - up volume of soybean meal in major oil mills was about 198,000 tons, compared with about 197,600 tons in the previous week [2]. - **Basis**: The basis of soybean meal increased week - on - week. As of the week of September 19, 2025, the average weekly basis of soybean meal (Zhangjiagang) was about - 30 yuan/ton, compared with about - 42 yuan/ton in the previous week and about - 28 yuan/ton in the same period last year [2][3]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of soybean meal increased week - on - week and decreased year - on - year. As of the week of September 11, 2025, the inventory of soybean meal in major domestic oil mills was about 1.05 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 3% and a year - on - year decrease of about 14% [3]. - **Crushing Volume**: The weekly crushing volume of domestic soybeans increased week - on - week and is expected to decrease next week. As of the week of September 19, 2025, the weekly crushing volume of domestic soybeans was about 2.43 million tons (2.36 million tons in the previous week and 2.05 million tons in the same period last year), with an operating rate of about 68% (66% in the previous week and 58% in the same period last year). Next week (September 20 - 26, 2025), the soybean crushing volume of oil mills is expected to be about 2.39 million tons (2.08 million tons in the same period last year), with an operating rate of 67% (59% in the same period last year) [3]. 3.4 Domestic Soybean No. 1 Spot Market - **Soybean Price**: The soybean price remained stable. The purchase price of clean soybean grains in some parts of Northeast China was in the range of 4,160 - 4,240 yuan/ton, that in some parts of the Inner Pass was in the range of 5,120 - 5,260 yuan/ton, and the selling price of edible soybeans in the sales area was in the range of 4,660 - 4,840 yuan/ton, all the same as the previous week [4]. - **New - Crop Soybeans in Northeast China**: New - crop soybeans in the Northeast were sporadically on the market, and no mainstream price had been formed yet. Due to the rainy - then - sunny weather in the Northeast, the harvest time of new - crop soybeans was postponed. Although the number of harvesting locations increased, most were early - maturing varieties [4]. - **State - Reserve Soybean Auction**: The state - reserve soybean auction was suspended, and the market was waiting for the increase in new - crop soybean harvest [4]. - **Sales Area Demand**: The demand in the sales area was differentiated. The sales of soybeans in the northern market were normal, and dealers were consuming inventory and waiting for new - crop soybeans. The sales of domestic soybeans in the southern market were slow due to the lack of obvious improvement in the demand for soy products [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall view is that with a bumper harvest in South America, there is no basis for a bull market; cost support reduces the probability of a sharp decline, and the market is generally oscillating with a slight upward trend, ranging from 950 - 1150 cents per bushel [5]. - Negative factors include that the communique of the recent China - US presidential call indicates that China will not purchase US soybeans before November, the weather in the main US soybean - producing areas is favorable with high yield prospects, and the expected increase in Brazil's planting area in the 2025/26 season is 1.8% [5]. - Positive factors are that policies such as the biodiesel policy and the expectation of improved China - US relations support prices, the US soybean balance sheet is in a tight balance, and La Nina weather may delay Brazil's soybean planting [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Price - This week, US soybean prices oscillated and closed lower. The China - US presidential call did not mention agricultural product procurement, and it is expected that China will be absent from the US soybean export market before the APEC meeting in November. The US soybean harvest progress has accelerated. Next week, attention should be paid to the follow - up progress of China - US negotiations, the weather conditions in the main production areas of the US and Brazil, and the progress of the biodiesel policy [8][10]. - This week, US soybean meal prices declined. The market expected that improved China - US relations would bring better export prospects for US agricultural products, but the presidential call did not mention agricultural product procurement [11][12]. - This week, US soybean oil prices oscillated lower. The draft opinion on the biodiesel exemption policy has changed, adding options that worry the market about demand prospects [15]. - As of September 12, the spot price of soybeans at US Gulf ports was $10.99 per bushel; the purchase price at farms (Iowa) was $9.73 per bushel, slightly down; as of September 18, the spot price of soybeans in south - western Iowa was $9.775 per bushel; on September 18, the spot price in Mato Grosso, Brazil, slightly decreased to 120.32 reais per bag; as of September 18, the spot price at Brazilian ports slightly decreased to 139.81 reais per bag [17][19][23][25]. Supply Factors - The drought situation in US soybean - producing areas has worsened, with a drought rate of 58% this week compared to 47% last week. In the next two weeks, the temperature in US producing areas will be warmer with no early frost threat, and there will be more precipitation in the main US soybean - producing areas. Most of the Brazilian producing areas have slightly less precipitation, the southern region is relatively humid, and the Brazilian rainy season is expected to return at the end of the month. Precipitation in Argentine soybean - producing areas is normal to high, and sowing is expected to start in October. As of September 12, the good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans was 63%, down from 64% last week and the same as the same period last year [28][30][32][34][36][39]. Demand Factors - As of September 12, the US soybean crushing profit was $3.14 per bushel, up from $3.08 last week. The weekly US soybean export volume was 837,100 tons, up from 640,000 tons last week; the weekly export inspection and quarantine volume was 804,300 tons, up from 467,600 tons last week; the net sales for this year were 923,000 tons, down from 1,389,400 tons last week; the sales for the next year were 2,200 tons, down from 1,074,000 tons last week; the quantity shipped to China last week was 0 tons [42][44][46][48][50][52]. Other Factors - The latest ENSO (NINO3.4 anomaly index) value is - 0.905, entering the La Nina range. The soybean planting costs in Brazil and the US have decreased. As of September 16, the net long position of soybeans in CFTC was 14,400 lots, compared with a net short position of 4,100 lots last week; the net long position of soybean oil was 35,000 lots, up from 17,500 lots last week; the net short position of soybean meal was 59,400 lots, compared with a net short position of 56,700 lots last week [55][57][63][65][67].

铝&氧化铝产业链周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所·王蓉（首席分析师/所长助理） 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 日期：2025年09月21日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 铝：未能如期上破21000关口，低位伺机等买点 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 3 ◆ 氧化铝目前在2900关口上下的市场分歧较大，基本面驱动仍偏下，但估值偏低，甚至目前盘面价格已经跌破部分河 南、山西高成本产区产能完全成本线。与今年上半年4月上旬创出的2600关口低点的市场场景做对比，当前阶段相对 利多的点在于：铝土矿的价格偏坚挺（倾向给到70-80美金/干吨），并没有给出进一步成本塌陷的负面螺旋；然而相 对利空的点则在于：广西新投产能及河北规划产能，仍令明年的合约价格有较大承压，且海外投产亦打压海外价格， 令进口窗口打开，增加进口货源的供应冲击。此外，伴随氧化铝现货价格继续下破成本线，此波生产刚性是否可能 强于上半年，也是市场博弈的不确定性。因此到目前来看，我们倾向于认为市场开始更多进入资金博 ...