2026 年 1 月 9 日 表 1：集运指数（欧线）基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨跌 | 昨日成交 | | 昨日持仓 | 持仓变动 | 昨日成交/持仓 | | 前日成交/持仓 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货 | EC2602 | 1,706.0 | -8.98% | 27,173 | | 20,008 | -1,803 | 1.36 | | 2.00 | | | EC2604 | 1,163.3 | -4.76% | 16,470 | | 27,774 | 1,435 | 0.59 | | 0.84 | | | | 本期 | | | 2026/1/5 | | 单位 | | 周涨幅 | | | | SCFIS：欧洲航线 | | 1,795.83 | | | | 点 | | 3.1% | | | 运价 | SCFIS：美西航线 | | 1,250.12 | | | | 点 | | -3.9% | | | 指数 | | 本期 | | | 2025/12/26 | | 单位 | | 双 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings Not provided in the document. Core Views - Silver has fallen from its high, indicating short - term price pressure. The bullish trend of silver is facing challenges, and the long - term trend has not ended, but the current adjustment is not over [7][8][9]. - The black sector prices are facing resistance at previous highs. The iron element shows short - term high - level fluctuations and long - term pressure, the carbon element's supply is expected to tighten in the long - term, and the ferroalloy has different trends for different varieties [11]. Summary by Related Catalogs Pre - market Highlights - **Silver**: Due to factors such as the easing of domestic spot premium, the decline of overseas silver lease rate, the convergence of internal and external price differences, and the strengthening of exchange risk control, the pressure for bulls to push up prices has increased. It is judged that the silver trend - following long strategy is worth exiting. The current decline does not mean the end of the long - term trend, but the current point has a poor risk - return ratio, and the adjustment is not over [8][9]. - **Black Sector**: The black sector prices are facing resistance at previous highs. For the iron element, there is long - term pressure and short - term high - level fluctuations; for the carbon element, the supply is expected to tighten in the long - term, and the price center will rise; for the ferroalloy, the manganese - silicon supply - demand pattern remains loose, and the silicon - iron is expected to maintain high - level fluctuations in the short - term [11][12]. Commodity Research Morning Report - Metals - **Gold**: Safe - haven sentiment has rebounded [16]. - **Silver**: High - level correction. The price has declined, and various indicators show signs of weakening in the short - term [16][20]. - **Copper**: The decrease in LME inventory limits the price decline. The price has fallen, but the inventory situation is a supporting factor [16][23]. - **Zinc**: High - level decline. The price and trading volume have decreased [16][26]. - **Lead**: The decrease in LME inventory limits the price decline. The price has fallen slightly, and the inventory situation affects the price [16][29]. - **Tin**: High - level loosening. The price has declined, and the market shows signs of weakness [16][33]. - **Aluminium**: Market sentiment has cooled. The price and trading volume have changed, and the overall market is weak [16][36]. - **Alumina**: The supply surplus remains unchanged [16][36]. - **Cast Aluminium Alloy**: Follows the trend of electrolytic aluminium [16][36]. - **Platinum**: There is selling pressure due to the outflow of ETF holdings [16][39]. - **Palladium**: Generally follows platinum, slightly stronger [16][39]. - **Nickel**: There is a game between real - world pressure and cycle - change narratives, with wide - range fluctuations [16][43]. - **Stainless Steel**: The real - world fundamentals are a drag, and the market is mainly focused on the game of Indonesian policies [16][43]. Commodity Research Morning Report - Non - metals - **Carbonate Lithium**: Inventory has started to increase, and the demand for bargain - hunting purchases supports the price [16][47]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Adopt a strategy of shorting at high prices [16][50]. - **Polysilicon**: Pessimistic sentiment is strong [16][51]. - **Iron Ore**: The valuation is high, and be cautious about chasing long positions [16][54]. - **Rebar**: The market sentiment fluctuates, and the futures price shows wide - range fluctuations [16][58]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: The market sentiment fluctuates, and the futures price shows wide - range fluctuations [16][58]. - **Silicon Iron**: There is a game between long and short positions in the futures market, and be vigilant about position risks [16][62]. - **Manganese Silicon**: There is a game between long and short positions in the futures market, and be vigilant about position risks [16][62]. - **Coke**: The event is developing, and the price shows high - level fluctuations [16][66]. - **Coking Coal**: The event is developing, and the price shows high - level fluctuations [16][67]. - **Log**: The price fluctuates repeatedly [16][70]. - **Para - Xylene**: The market shows unilateral high - level fluctuations, and pay attention to the positive spread arbitrage of monthly differences [16][74]. - **PTA**: High - level fluctuation market [16][74]. - **MEG**: The upside space is limited, and there is still pressure in the medium - term [16][74]. - **Rubber**: Wide - range fluctuations [16][83]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The oscillation center moves up [16][87]. - **LLDPE**: The standard product production ratio remains low, and the import profit is significantly repaired [16][90]. - **PP**: Propylene is stronger than ethylene, and there is a strong expectation of PDH maintenance in the first quarter [16][93]. - **Caustic Soda**: Weak - level fluctuations [16][96]. - **Pulp**: Oscillatory operation [16][102]. - **Glass**: The price of the original sheet is stable [16][107]. - **Methanol**: Oscillatory operation [16][110]. - **Urea**: Short - term oscillatory operation [16][115]. - **Styrene**: Short - term oscillation [16][120]. - **Soda Ash**: The spot market has little change [16][124]. - **LPG**: Pay attention to geopolitical disturbances [16][127]. - **Propylene**: The demand is stable, and the spot price slightly increases [16][128]. - **PVC**: Weak - level fluctuations [16][136]. - **Fuel Oil**: Strong - level fluctuations, with support at the bottom [16][139]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The night - session price rises, and the price difference between high - and low - sulfur fuels in the overseas spot market rebounds slightly [16][139]. - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: Lightly try to go long on the 02 contract for delivery; hold short positions on the 04 contract [16][141]. - **Short - Fiber**: Short - term oscillatory market [16][155]. - **Bottle - Chip**: Short - term oscillatory market [16][155]. - **Offset Printing Paper**: Short at high prices [16][158]. - **Pure Benzene**: Short - term oscillation mainly [16][162]. - **Palm Oil**: Wait for the negative factors to subside, and pay attention to the impact of macro - sentiment [16][166]. - **Soybean Oil**: The price moves in a unilateral range, and pay attention to monthly - difference opportunities [16][166]. - **Soybean Meal**: Oscillation, waiting for next week's USDA report [16][172]. - **Soybean**: Adjustment and oscillation [16][172]. - **Corn**: Pay attention to the spot price [16][175]. - **Sugar**: Range consolidation mainly [16][178]. - **Cotton**: Fluctuates with the overall market sentiment [16][183]. - **Egg**: The sentiment for the far - month contract weakens [16][189]. - **Live Pig**: There is a negative feedback in demand, and the supply is entering a pre - increment stage [16][192]. - **Peanut**: Oscillatory operation [16][197].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content. 2. Report's Core View - The report focuses on LPG and propylene, suggesting to pay attention to geopolitical disturbances in the LPG market, and mentions that propylene demand is stable with a slight increase in spot prices [1][2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 LPG and Propylene Futures Price and Trading Data - **Futures Prices**: On January 9, 2026, PG2602 closed at 4,199 with a -0.62% daily increase, and its night - session price was 4,203 with a 0.10% increase; PG2603 closed at 4,103 with a -0.87% daily increase, and its night - session price was 4,100 with a -0.07% increase. PL2602, PL2603, and PL2604 also had corresponding price changes [2]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: PG2602's trading volume decreased by 15,927 to 52,643, and its open interest decreased by 8,012 to 41,759; PG2603's trading volume decreased by 2,560 to 36,134, and its open interest increased by 6,289 to 73,469. Other contracts also had different changes in trading volume and open interest [2]. - **Price Spreads**: The spreads between Guangzhou domestic gas and PG02 contract, Guangzhou imported gas and PG02 contract, and propylene in different regions and PL03 contract all had certain changes compared to the previous day [2]. 3.2 Industry Chain Data - **Industry Operating Rates**: This week, the PDH operating rate was 75.6% (last week: 75.1%), the MTBE operating rate was 67.6% (last week: 68.0%), and the alkylation operating rate was 38.1% (unchanged from last week) [2]. 3.3 Market Information - **CP Paper Cargo Prices**: On January 9, 2026, the February CP paper cargo price for propane was 517 USD/ton, a decrease of 5 USD/ton from the previous trading day; the price for butane was 512 USD/ton, a decrease of 7 USD/ton from the previous trading day. The March CP paper cargo price for propane was 502 USD/ton, a decrease of 5 USD/ton from the previous trading day [7]. - **Domestic PDH Device Maintenance Plans**: Multiple companies such as Henan Huasong New Material Technology Co., Ltd., Jiangsu Yanchang Zhongran Chemical Co., Ltd. have PDH device maintenance plans, with some start times and end times determined and some still to be determined [8]. - **Domestic LPG Plant Device Maintenance Plans**: Production enterprises such as Rizhao (CNOOC), Shenchi Chemical, Yunnan Petrochemical, and Sinochem Quanzhou have LPG plant device maintenance plans, with different start times, end times, and loss volumes [8]. 3.4 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of LPG is 0, and that of propylene is also 0, indicating a neutral trend [6].

2026 年 1 月 9 日 商 品 研 究 LLDPE：标品排产维持偏低，进口利润修复明 国 泰 君 安 期 货 | | | 【基本面跟踪】 LLDPE 基本面数据 | 期 货 | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨跌 | 昨日成交 | 持仓变动 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | L2605 | 6628 | -0.21% | 657423 | -379 | | 基差月差变化 | | 昨日价差 | | 前日价差 | | | | 05合约基差 | -128 | | -162 | | | | 05-09合约价差 | -37 | | -45 | | | 重要现货价格 | | 昨日价格 | （元/吨） | 前日价格 | （元/吨） | | | 华北 | 6500 | | 6480 | | | | 华东 | 6560 | | 6550 | | | | 华南 | 6550 | | 6550 | | 资料来源：卓创资讯，国泰君安期货 【现货消息】 期货涨势有所放缓，前期盘面反弹，市场补空和套保成交积极，现货短期矛盾不大，库存向中游转移, 仓单暂停去化，今日成交氛围有所转淡。外盘 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - Iron ore: Valuation is high, and caution is advised when chasing long positions [2][4]. - Rebar and hot-rolled coil: Market sentiment is causing disturbances, and the futures prices are experiencing wide fluctuations [2][8]. - Ferrosilicon and silicomanganese: There is a game between long and short positions on the futures market, and investors should be vigilant about position risks [2][12]. - Coke and coking coal: Events are fermenting, and the prices are fluctuating at high levels [2][16]. - Logs: The price is fluctuating repeatedly [2][20]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Iron Ore - **Fundamental Data**: The previous day's closing price was 813 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton or 1.81%. The previous day's position was 636,674 lots, a decrease of 29,907 lots. Spot prices of imported and domestic ores mostly declined slightly [4]. - **Macro and Industry News**: China's December RatingDog composite PMI was 51.3, slightly higher than November, indicating further growth in the total production and operation volume of Chinese enterprises at the end of 2025 [5]. - **Trend Intensity**: -1, indicating a weak bearish trend [5]. Rebar and Hot-Rolled Coil - **Fundamental Data**: For RB2605, the previous day's closing price was 3,168 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan/ton or 0.44%. For HC2605, it was 3,317 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan/ton or 0.48%. There were changes in trading volume, positions, and various price differences [8]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On January 8, steel union weekly data showed changes in production, total inventory, and apparent demand for rebar and hot-rolled coil. There were also data on steel social inventory, production of key steel enterprises, and relevant policies and import data [9][10]. - **Trend Intensity**: Both are 0, indicating a neutral trend [10]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Fundamental Data**: There were changes in spot prices, futures prices, trading volumes, positions, and various price differences of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese [13][14]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On January 8, there were price changes in different grades of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese in various regions. In December 2025, Brazil's manganese ore exports decreased significantly [14][15]. - **Trend Intensity**: Both are 0, indicating a neutral trend [15]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Fundamental Data**: For JM2605, the previous day's closing price was 1,190 yuan/ton, up 26 yuan/ton or 2.2%. For J2605, it was 1,765 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan/ton or 0.5%. There were changes in trading volume, positions, and various price differences [17]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On January 7, there were CCI metallurgical coal index data. This week, the daily production of raw coal from 523 coking coal sample mines increased, and there were changes in the number of shutdown and复产 mines [17]. - **Trend Intensity**: Both are 0, indicating a neutral trend [19]. Logs - **Fundamental Data**: There were changes in the closing prices, trading volumes, positions, and various price differences of different log futures contracts. Spot prices of most log varieties remained stable [21]. - **Macro and Industry News**: China's December RatingDog composite PMI was 51.3, slightly higher than November, indicating further growth in the total production and operation volume of Chinese enterprises at the end of 2025 [23]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0, indicating a neutral trend [23].

商 品 研 究 2026年01月09日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-贵金属及基本金属 观点与策略 | 黄金：避险情绪回升 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 白银：高位回调 | 2 | | 铜：LME库存减少，价格回落受限 | 4 | | 锌：高位回落 | 6 | | 铅：LME库存减少，限制价格回落 | 8 | | 锡：高位松动 | 9 | | 铝：市场情绪降温 | 10 | | 氧化铝：供应过剩未改 | 10 | | 铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝 | 10 | | 铂：ETF持仓流出，存在抛压 | 12 | | 钯：整体跟随铂，略微偏强 | 12 | | 镍：现实压力背负与周期转变叙事博弈，宽幅震荡 | 14 | | 不锈钢：现实基本面拖累，盘面博弈印尼政策为主 | 14 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 2026 年 1 月 9 日 黄金：避险情绪回升 白银：高位回调 刘雨萱 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 liuyuxuan023982@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 贵金属基本面数据 | 贵金属基本面数据 | | | | ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views of the Report - The report provides trend analyses and trading suggestions for various energy and chemical futures, including PX, PTA, MEG, rubber, and others, based on current market dynamics, geopolitical situations, and supply - demand fundamentals [2][11]. - For some commodities, such as PX, PTA, and short - term urea, they are in a state of high - level or short - term oscillation, with specific influencing factors analyzed for each [11][48]. - For other commodities, the report points out potential risks and opportunities, like the high valuation of styrene and the need to pay attention to short - selling opportunities [50]. Summaries According to Related Catalogs PX, PTA, MEG - **Market Dynamics**: International oil prices rose due to geopolitical uncertainties. PX prices fell, PTA load was at 78.2%, and MEG domestic production was at a high level [6][9]. - **Trend Intensity**: PX trend intensity is 1, PTA is 1, and MEG is 0 [11]. - **Views and Suggestions**: PX is in a unilateral high - level oscillation market, and attention should be paid to positive spreads. PTA is also in a high - level oscillation market, and MEG's medium - term trend is weak [11][12]. Rubber - **Fundamental Data**: There were changes in futures prices, trading volumes, and positions. Spot prices were relatively stable, and import prices increased slightly [14]. - **Industry News**: Domestic production areas were at the end of the rubber - tapping season. Overseas raw material prices rose, and port inventories increased as expected [15]. - **Trend Intensity**: Rubber trend intensity is 0 [14]. Synthetic Rubber - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices, trading volumes, and positions changed. Spot prices, such as butadiene and styrene - butadiene rubber, increased [17]. - **Industry News**: Butadiene port inventories decreased, and synthetic rubber inventories decreased slightly. Short - term butadiene and synthetic rubber may run strongly [18][19]. - **Trend Intensity**: Synthetic rubber trend intensity is 1 [19]. LLDPE - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices fell slightly, and basis and spreads changed. Spot prices were relatively stable [20]. - **Market Situation Analysis**: Raw material prices were stable, and PE process profits improved. Supply and demand pressure remained in the medium - term [21]. - **Trend Intensity**: LLDPE trend intensity is 0 [22]. PP - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices changed slightly, and basis and spreads were relatively stable. Spot prices were mostly unchanged [23]. - **Market Situation Analysis**: Cost was strong, and there was a valuation difference between PE and PP. Supply and demand were in a game, and attention should be paid to PDH device changes [24]. - **Trend Intensity**: PP trend intensity is 0 [25]. Caustic Soda - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices and basis were provided [26]. - **Market Situation Analysis**: The previous rebound was difficult to sustain, and it was in a high - production and high - inventory pattern with weak demand [28]. - **Trend Intensity**: Caustic soda trend intensity is - 1 [30]. Pulp - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices fell, and trading volumes and positions increased. Spot prices were relatively stable [34]. - **Industry News**: The futures market was active, and the spot market was stable. The overall supply and demand changed little [35]. - **Trend Intensity**: Pulp trend intensity is 0 [34]. Glass - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices rose, and basis and spreads changed. Spot prices were stable [38]. - **Spot News**: Domestic glass prices were mostly stable, and enterprise sales were average [38]. - **Trend Intensity**: Glass trend intensity is 0 [38]. Methanol - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices fell, and trading volumes decreased. Spot prices were regionally adjusted [41]. - **Spot News**: The domestic methanol market was regionally adjusted, and port inventories continued to accumulate [43]. - **Trend Intensity**: Methanol trend intensity is 0 [44]. Urea - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices fell slightly, and trading volumes decreased. Spot prices were mostly stable [46]. - **Industry News**: Enterprise inventories were basically flat, and the market entered a short - term oscillation pattern [47][48]. - **Trend Intensity**: Urea trend intensity is 0 [48]. Styrene - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices changed, and basis and spreads were provided. Spot prices were at a high level [49]. - **Spot News**: The current valuation is high, and attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities [50]. - **Trend Intensity**: Styrene trend intensity is 0 [49]. Soda Ash - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices rose slightly, and basis and spreads changed. Spot prices were stable [54]. - **Spot News**: The domestic soda ash market rose slightly, with high supply and weak demand [54]. - **Trend Intensity**: Soda ash trend intensity is 0 [54]. LPG and Propylene - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices changed, and trading volumes and positions were provided. PDH and MTBE operating rates were also given [57]. - **Market Information**: CP paper prices fell, and there were domestic device maintenance plans [62]. - **Trend Intensity**: LPG trend intensity is 0, and propylene trend intensity is 0 [61]. PVC - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices and basis were provided. Social inventories increased [65]. - **Market Situation Analysis**: The market was in a high - production and high - inventory pattern, and it was in a weak oscillation [65]. - **Trend Intensity**: PVC trend intensity is - 1 [66]. Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices rose, and trading volumes and positions changed. Spot prices and spreads were provided [68]. - **Trend Intensity**: Fuel oil trend intensity is 0, and low - sulfur fuel oil trend intensity is 0 [68]. Container Freight Index (European Line) - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices fell, and trading volumes and positions changed. Freight rates and exchange rates were provided [70]. - **Macro News**: There were geopolitical events such as Trump's threat to Iran and Yemen's personnel changes [78]. - **Trend Intensity**: Container Freight Index (European Line) trend intensity is 1 [83]. Short - Fiber and Bottle Chip - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices fell, and trading volumes and positions changed. Spot prices were stable [84]. - **Spot News**: Short - fiber futures adjusted weakly, and bottle - chip factory quotes were mostly stable [84][85]. - **Trend Intensity**: Short - fiber trend intensity is 0, and bottle - chip trend intensity is 0 [85]. Offset Printing Paper - **Fundamental Data**: Spot prices were stable, and cost - profit data changed slightly. Futures prices fell [87]. - **Industry News**: Market prices in Shandong and Guangdong were stable, and demand was weak [88][90]. - **Trend Intensity**: Offset printing paper trend intensity is - 1 [87]. Pure Benzene - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices fell, and port inventories increased [91]. - **News**: Pure benzene port inventories increased, and spot prices rose [92][93]. - **Trend Intensity**: Pure benzene trend intensity is 0 [91].

2026年01月09日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-绿色金融与新能源 观点与策略 | 镍：现实压力背负与周期转变叙事博弈，宽幅震荡 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 不锈钢：现实基本面拖累，盘面博弈印尼政策为主 | 2 | | 碳酸锂：库存转增，回调采买需求支撑价格 | 4 | | 工业硅：逢高布空思路 | 6 | | 多晶硅：悲观情绪较浓 | 6 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 2026 年 1 月 9 日 镍：现实压力背负与周期转变叙事博弈，宽幅震荡 不锈钢：现实基本面拖累，盘面博弈印尼政策为主 张再宇 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021479 zhangzaiyu@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 2）新华社 12 月 12 日从商务部获悉，商务部、海关总署日前印发公告，决定对部分钢铁产品实施出口 许可证管理。公告自 2026 年 1 月 1 日起执行。 3）根据钢联，印尼镍矿商协会 (APNI) 透露，能源和矿产资源部（ESDM）将于 2026 年初修订镍矿商 品的基准价格公式，修订要点之一是政府将开始将镍的伴生矿钴视为独立商 ...

2026 年 1 月 9 日 胶版印刷纸：逢高布空 石忆宁 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0022533 shiyining@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 表 1：基本面数据(元/吨) | 市场 | 区域 | 纸种 | 2026/1/8 4475 | 2026/1/7 4475 | 环比 0 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 70g天阳 | | | 0 | | | 山东市场 | 70g晨鸣云镜 | 4675 | 4675 | | | | | 70g华夏太阳 | 4725 | 4725 | 0 | | 现货市场 | | 70g本白牡丹 | 4450 | 4450 | 0 | | | | 70g天阳 | 4400 | 4400 | 0 | | | 广东市场 | 70g晨鸣云豹 | 4600 | 4600 | 0 | | | | 70g华夏太阳 | 4700 | 4700 | 0 | | | | 含税收入 | 4725 | 4725 | 0 | | | 税前 | 含税成本 | 5294 | 5298 | -4 | | 成本利润 | | 税前毛利 | -569 | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the report industry investment rating. 2. Core View - The report suggests short - term observation on crude oil and focuses on upside risks such as the Iranian issue. The trend strength of crude oil is 0, indicating a neutral stance [1][7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Mexican Gulf Crude Oil Arbitrage - Arab Extra Light, Arab Light, Nemba, Agbami, and Forties all have closed arbitrage windows, with respective arbitrage values of -$3.41, -$4.12, -$4.16, -$5.81, and -$8.53 per barrel. Reasons include unprofitable imports, insufficient cracking profit, high freight offsetting premium, weak African oil demand, and lack of competitiveness in the US Gulf [1]. 3.2 Atlantic Crude Oil Arbitrage - Forties has a closed arbitrage window with an arbitrage value of -$0.63 per barrel due to limited trans - Atlantic arbitrage space. Arab Extra Light has an open arbitrage window with an arbitrage value of $1.81 per barrel, indicating an arbitrage opportunity for Saudi light crude in the US East [2]. 3.3 Northwest European Crude Oil Arbitrage - WTIME H, Eagle Ford, and Bonny Light have open arbitrage windows with arbitrage values of $1.53, $1.82, and $1.57 per barrel respectively, due to可观 cracking profit, strong demand for US light shale oil, and improved cost - effectiveness of Nigerian crude. Azeri Light has a closed arbitrage window with an arbitrage value of -$0.27 per barrel due to environmental policy constraints on high - sulfur crude [4]. 3.4 Mediterranean Crude Oil Arbitrage - Saharan Blend, Azeri Light, Bonny Light, and Ekofisk have closed arbitrage windows with arbitrage values of -$23.07, -$23.88, -$23.79, and -$26.21 per barrel respectively, due to low Mediterranean demand, high freight, lack of economic viability of Nigerian crude, and structural surplus pressure on North Sea crude [4]. 3.5 Asian Crude Oil Arbitrage - Murban, Bonny Light, Forties, and Eagle Ford have closed arbitrage windows with arbitrage values of -$10.43, -$11.67, -$16.45, and -$8.88 per barrel respectively, due to fierce competition in East Asia, weak demand for Nigerian crude, squeezed market share of North Sea crude, and narrowed arbitrage space for US shale oil [5]. 3.6 Key Market News - The US Energy Secretary said Venezuela's oil production may increase by 50% in 18 months [5]. - The US Senate passed a war - power resolution by 52 to 47 votes, limiting Trump's ability to take military action against Venezuela [6]. - The US December New York Fed 1 - year inflation expectation was 3.4%, up from the previous value of 3.20% [8]. - India's Reliance Industries will consider buying Venezuelan oil if allowed to sell to non - US buyers [8]. - Venezuela is actively cooperating with the Trump administration on a plan to export oil to the US, with the goal of exporting 30 - 50 million barrels of sanctioned oil [8].