烧碱：关注交割压力 陈嘉昕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020481 chenjiaxin2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 烧碱基本面数据 09合约期货价格 山东最便宜可交割 现货32碱价格 山东现货32碱折盘面 基差 2637 830 2594 -43 2025 年 7 月 28 日 资料来源：隆众资讯，国泰君安期货 【现货消息】 注：趋势强度取值范围为【-2,2】区间整数。强弱程度分类如下：弱、偏弱、中性、偏强、强，-2 表示 最看空，2 表示最看多。 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 【市场状况分析】 周五夜盘商品普遍大幅下跌，反内卷情绪减弱，短期情绪面和资金集中平仓影响仍较大，下周烧碱预计 走势偏弱。烧碱在此轮反内卷过程中基本面并没有明显改善，驱动不足，目前反内卷政策也未涉及烧碱行 业。 目前烧碱由于处于需求淡季，涨价动力不足，但又受液氯偏弱影响，成本支撑强，未来需要关注耗氯下 游对烧碱供应的影响。此外，需要关注 08 合约仓单对市场的冲击，因此烧碱短期承压，长期看，烧碱旺季 需求仍有期待。 【趋势强度】 烧碱趋势强度：-1 以山东地区为基准，山东液碱涨跌互现。库存低位企 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View The report suggests paying attention to the impact of short - term market sentiment changes on the cotton market. It also presents detailed data on cotton fundamentals, macro and industry news, and the trend strength of cotton [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: CF2509 closed at 14,170 yuan/ton with a 0.07% daily increase and 14,150 yuan/ton at night with a - 0.14% - -0.17% decrease; CY2509 closed at 20,370 yuan/ton with a 0.05% daily increase and 20,335 yuan/ton at night; ICE US Cotton 12 closed at 68.23 cents/pound with a - 0.74% decrease. The trading volume and open interest of CF2509 increased, while CY2509's trading volume decreased and open interest increased [1]. - **Warehouse Receipt Data**: Zhengzhou cotton's warehouse receipts decreased by 72 to 9,265, and the effective forecast increased by 15 to 350. Cotton yarn's warehouse receipts remained at 96, and the effective forecast increased by 96 to 96 [1]. - **Spot Price Data**: The prices of North Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton and South Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton increased slightly, while the prices in Shandong and Hebei decreased slightly. The 3128B index decreased by 0.09%. The international cotton index M increased by 0.59%. The price of pure - cotton carded yarn 32S remained unchanged, and its arrival price increased by 0.16% [1]. - **Spread Data**: The CF9 - 1 spread decreased by 40 yuan/ton compared to the previous day, and the spread between North Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton and CF509 remained unchanged [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Domestic Cotton Spot**: The overall rigid - demand trading of cotton spot was still acceptable, with better sales of old cotton. Some high - price basis quotes were slightly adjusted down, and the overall basis remained stable. There were specific basis quotes for different types of cotton [2]. - **Domestic Cotton Textile Enterprises**: The trading in the pure - cotton yarn market was average, with spinning mills having firm quotes and downstream buyers making rigid - demand purchases. The trading in the all - cotton grey fabric market was generally light, with stable prices. Factories had high inventories, and the de - stocking effect was average [2]. - **US Cotton**: Last Friday, ICE cotton futures declined slightly, and the market lacked fundamental guidance, resulting in light trading [3]. 3.3 Trend Strength The trend strength of cotton is 0, indicating a neutral stance. The trend strength ranges from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [4][5]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report focuses on the asphalt market, showing that the asphalt market is experiencing slow shipments and repeated fluctuations. The current trend strength is neutral, and the market is following the oil price to fluctuate within a range, while regional spot price differences are stabilizing with fluctuations. 3. Content Summary by Section 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: - BU2508 yesterday's closing price was 3,641 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.17%, and the overnight closing price was 3,620 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.58%. The trading volume was 391 lots, a decrease of 733 lots, and the open interest was 3,570 lots, a decrease of 87 lots. - BU2509 yesterday's closing price was 3,615 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.36%, and the overnight closing price was 3,591 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.66%. The trading volume was 205,894 lots, an increase of 38,916 lots, and the open interest was 171,367 lots, a decrease of 15,043 lots. - The total market asphalt warehouse receipts were 82,180 lots, a decrease of 120 lots [1]. - **Spread Data**: - The basis (Shandong - 08) was 139 yuan/ton, a decrease of 11 yuan from the previous day. - The 08 - 09 inter - period spread was 26 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7 yuan from the previous day. - The Shandong - South China spread was 190, a decrease of 5 from the previous day. - The East China - South China spread was 190 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [1]. - **Spot Market Data**: - The Shandong wholesale price was 3,780 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan, with the factory - warehouse spot equivalent to the futures price of 3,913 yuan/ton and the warehouse spot equivalent to the futures price of 4,058 yuan/ton. - The Yangtze River Delta wholesale price was 3,780 yuan/ton, unchanged, with the factory - warehouse spot equivalent to the futures price of 3,701 yuan/ton and the warehouse spot equivalent to the futures price of 3,739 yuan/ton. - As of July 24, the refinery operating rate was 31.95%, a decrease of 1.29% from July 21, and the refinery inventory rate was 25.10%, a decrease of 0.79% from July 21 [1]. 3.2 Market Information - **Production Data**: In the week of 20250718 - 20250724, the domestic weekly asphalt production was 51.7 million tons, a 1.5% decrease from the previous week and a 12.1% increase year - on - year. The cumulative production from January to July was 1,755.4 million tons, a 7.7% increase year - on - year [14]. - **Inventory Data**: - As of July 24, 2025, the total inventory of 54 domestic asphalt sample factories was 72.3 million tons, a 4.0% decrease from July 21. The East China region had the largest de - stocking amplitude. - As of July 24, 2025, the total inventory of 104 domestic asphalt social warehouses was 185.7 million tons, a 0.1% decrease from July 21. The East China region's social warehouses had obvious de - stocking [14]. 3.3 Trend Strength The asphalt trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral view, with the strength range from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [9].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The trend strength of synthetic rubber is -1, indicating a short - term view of a high - level pullback and a medium - term view of an oscillating pattern [3]. 2. Core View of the Report - Short - term, the futures price of cis - butadiene rubber is expected to pull back from the high level and enter an oscillating pattern in the medium term. Short - term, with a large amount of speculative funds leaving the market on Friday night, the commodity index has fallen from its high, and synthetic rubber will follow suit. Also, with the strengthening of the basis, the supply pressure on the spot market is expected to increase. Medium - term, cis - butadiene rubber is expected to oscillate due to the ongoing anti - involution policy, the stable support of the rubber sector, and the marginal improvement of the synthetic rubber industry chain fundamentals [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market**: For the cis - butadiene rubber main contract (09 contract), the daily closing price was 12,415 yuan/ton (up 130 yuan from the previous day), the trading volume was 160,791 lots (up 12,149 lots), the open interest was 49,311 lots (up 483 lots), and the trading volume was 9.90584 billion yuan (up 943.32 million yuan) [1]. - **Spread Data**: The basis of Shandong cis - butadiene - futures main contract was - 265 yuan (down 80 yuan), the monthly spread of BR08 - BR09 was - 30 yuan (down 5 yuan). The prices of North China, East China, and South China private cis - butadiene increased by 50 yuan respectively. The Shandong cis - butadiene market price (delivery product) increased by 50 yuan. The prices of Qilu styrene - butadiene (model 1502) and (model 1712) increased by 250 yuan and 200 yuan respectively. The Jiangsu and Shandong mainstream prices of butadiene increased by 100 yuan and 75 yuan respectively [1]. - **Fundamentals**: The cis - butadiene operating rate was 71.3912% (unchanged), the theoretical full cost of cis - butadiene was 12,491 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the cis - butadiene profit was - 291 yuan/ton (unchanged) [1]. 3.2 Industry News - **Butadiene Inventory**: As of July 23, the latest inventory of butadiene in East China ports was about 15,700 tons, a decrease of 4,300 tons from the previous period. Limited import shipments and weather - affected delays led to the decrease [2]. - **Cis - butadiene Rubber Inventory**: As of July 23, 2025 (week 30), the inventory of Chinese high - cis cis - butadiene rubber sample enterprises was 32,300 tons, a slight increase of 0.22% from the previous week. Due to macro news and rising raw material costs, the spot and futures markets were expected to be strong, the supply price increased significantly, and the inventory of sample production enterprises decreased slightly while that of sample trading enterprises increased [2][3].

Report Information - Date: July 28, 2025 [1][4][9][12] - Report Title: Guotai Junan Futures Commodity Research Morning Report - Green Finance and New Energy [1] Core Views - Nickel: Macroeconomic expectations determine the direction, while fundamentals limit the elasticity [2][4] - Stainless Steel: Macroeconomic sentiment dominates the margin, and the real - world situation still needs to be repaired [2][4] - Lithium Carbonate: Commodity prices fell during the night session on Friday. Pay attention to the transmission of pessimistic sentiment [2][9] - Industrial Silicon: Sentiment is declining. Pay attention to the risk of a sharp decline [2][12] - Polysilicon: Sentiment is declining [2][12] Industry - Specific Summaries Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of Shanghai Nickel's main contract was 124,360 yuan, and that of the stainless - steel main contract was 13,030 yuan. There were also detailed data on trading volume, spot prices, and various spreads [4] - **Macro and Industry News**: Ontario may stop exporting nickel to the US; an Indonesian nickel - iron project entered the trial - production stage; environmental violations were found in an Indonesian industrial park; Indonesia plans to shorten the mining quota period; the approved production plan for 2025 is higher than that of 2024; some nickel - iron production lines in Indonesia stopped production [4][5][6][7] - **Trend Intensity**: Both nickel and stainless - steel trend intensities are 0 [8] Lithium Carbonate - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the 2509 contract was 80,520 yuan, with detailed data on trading volume, open interest, and various spreads and prices in the lithium - salt industrial chain [9] - **Macro and Industry News**: The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price increased; the Guangzhou Futures Exchange limited the daily opening volume of the LC2509 contract [10][11] - **Trend Intensity**: Lithium carbonate trend intensity is - 1 [11] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the Si2509 contract was 9,725 yuan, and that of the PS2509 contract was 51,025 yuan. There were also data on trading volume, open interest, spreads, and prices in the industrial chain, as well as inventory and cost data [12] - **Macro and Industry News**: In the first half of the year, Zhejiang purchased 126 million green certificates, equivalent to 12.6 billion kWh of electricity [14] - **Trend Intensity**: Both industrial silicon and polysilicon trend intensities are - 1 [14]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Iron ore is expected to have a bullish and volatile trend supported by macro - expectations [2][4]. - Rebar and hot - rolled coil are likely to have a bullish and volatile trend due to sector - wide market resonance [2][6]. - Ferrosilicon and silicomanganese are expected to show a strong trend, affected by energy consumption, carbon emissions information, and industry "involution" information respectively [2][11]. - Coke and coking coal are predicted to have wide - range fluctuations as market sentiment is realized [2][14]. - Steam coal is expected to stabilize with a volatile trend as daily consumption recovers [18]. - Logs are likely to have a fluctuating and repeated trend [22]. 3. Summary by Commodity Iron Ore - **Fundamentals**: The previous day's futures closing price was 802.5 yuan/ton, down 8.5 yuan/ton (-1.05%). Imported and most domestic spot prices decreased. Some basis and spread values changed slightly [4]. - **News**: The National Development and Reform Commission and the State Administration for Market Regulation solicited public opinions on the "Draft Amendment to the Price Law of the People's Republic of China" [4]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [4]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices of RB2510 and HC2510 increased, with trading volume and open interest rising. Spot prices in major regions also increased. Some basis and spread values changed [6]. - **News**: Steel Union's weekly data showed changes in production, inventory, and apparent demand. In mid - July 2025, key steel enterprises' average daily production of crude steel, pig iron, and steel increased. The National Development and Reform Commission and the State Administration for Market Regulation solicited public opinions on the price law amendment [7][8]. - **Trend Intensity**: 1 for both rebar and hot - rolled coil [8]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese increased significantly. Spot prices of silicomanganese in Inner Mongolia rose by 20 yuan/ton. Various price differences changed [11]. - **News**: Iron alloy online reported price ranges of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese in different regions, and manganese ore inventory increased [12]. - **Trend Intensity**: 1 for both ferrosilicon and silicomanganese [13]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Fundamentals**: Futures trading volume and open interest of coking coal and coke changed. Spot prices of some coking coal and coke varieties increased. Basis and spread values also changed [14]. - **News**: There were price changes in northern port coking coal quotes and the Fenwei CCI metallurgical coal index. Regarding open interest, for coking coal JM2509, long positions increased by 33,862 lots and short positions increased by 38,709 lots; for coke J2509, long positions decreased by 1,156 lots and short positions decreased by 130 lots [14][15][16]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both coke and coking coal [16]. Steam Coal - **Fundamentals**: The previous day's ZC2507 contract had no trading. Southern port and domestic production area prices were provided. Open interest of the ZC2507 contract had no change [19][20]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [21]. Logs - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices of log contracts increased slightly, while trading volume and open interest decreased. Spot prices of most log varieties were stable, with some showing small changes [23]. - **News**: The National Development and Reform Commission and the State Administration for Market Regulation solicited public opinions on the price law amendment [25]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [25].

2025年07月28日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-农产品 | | | 观点与策略 | 棕榈油：短期上涨到位，警惕情绪回落 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 豆油：区间震荡，关注中美贸易进展 | 2 | | 豆粕：隔夜美豆微跌，连粕调整震荡 | 5 | | 豆一：调整震荡 | 5 | | 玉米：关注现货 | 7 | | 白糖：区间整理 | 9 | | 棉花：注意短期市场情绪变化的影响 | 10 | | 鸡蛋：现货驱动减弱 | 12 | | 生猪：强现实弱预期，结构切换至趋势反套 | 13 | | 花生：下方有支撑 | 14 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 7 月 28 日 棕榈油：短期上涨到位，警惕情绪回落 豆油：区间震荡，关注中美贸易进展 【基本面跟踪】 油脂基本面数据 | | | 单 位 | 收盘价 (日盘） | 涨跌幅 | 收盘价 （夜盘） | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 棕榈油主力 | 元/吨 | 8,936 | -1.85% | ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Last week, the market continued to rise. The cyclical sectors driven by the expectation of supply - side reform, such as building materials, steel, and coal, led the gains, pushing the index back to 3600 points [2]. - This week, due to the exchange's restrictive measures after the short - term rally, the commodity market may enter a wide - range shock period, and the strong performance of cyclical sectors may take a break. If there is no new strong sector, the short - term index may turn to a shock trend. However, as long as there is no overall negative news, the bullish pattern of the stock market is expected to continue, but it needs to consolidate at the 3600 - point level [2]. - Pay attention to the Politburo meeting before the end of July for the policy tone on the second - half economic work, especially the statements on supply - side policies and demand - side policies after the recent price increases. Also, focus on the China - US - Sweden negotiations, non - Chinese tariff negotiations, and China's July PMI data [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Spot Market Review - Last week, most sectors of the CSI 300 index rose, with energy, materials, and industry sectors leading the gains, while telecommunications, utilities, and finance sectors declined. Most sectors of the CSI 500 index also rose, with energy, raw materials, and industry sectors having significant increases [9]. 3.2 Stock Index Futures Market Review - Last week, the main contract IC of stock index futures had the largest increase, and also the largest amplitude. The trading volume and open interest of stock index futures declined [11][15][19]. 3.3 Index Valuation Tracking - The TTM price - to - earnings ratios of the Shanghai Composite Index, CSI 300 Index, SSE 50 Index, CSI 500 Index, and CSI 1000 Index are 15.38 times, 13.38 times, 11.38 times, 27.66 times, and 36.02 times respectively [22][23]. 3.4 Market Capital Flow Review - The share of newly established equity - biased funds and the number of new investors in the two markets are presented in relevant charts. The capital interest rate price rebounded last week, and the central bank had a net capital withdrawal [26]. 4. Strategy Recommendations 4.1 Short - term Strategy - The intraday trading frequency can refer to the 1 - minute and 5 - minute K - line charts. The stop - loss and take - profit levels of IF, IH, IC, and IM can be set at 76 points/95 points, 58 points/31 points, 66 points/121 points, and 84 points/142 points respectively [4]. 4.2 Trend Strategy - Buy on dips. The core operating ranges of the main contracts IF2508, IH2508, IC2508, and IM2508 are expected to be between 3999 - 4205 points, 2726 - 2852 points, 6073 - 6480 points, and 6435 - 6868 points respectively [4]. 4.3 Cross - variety Strategy - Adopt the strategy of shorting IF (or IH) and going long on IC (or IM) [4].

铝&氧化铝产业链周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所·王蓉（首席分析师/所长助理） 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 日期：2025年07月27日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 铝：关注"反内卷"宏观情绪是否确认拐点，预计有一定溢价挤 出 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 资料来源：国泰君安期货研究 2 ◆ 本周沪铝主力合约在接近21000关口附近位置，尝试突破再次未果，且逐渐呈现出触顶回落的温和迹象，叠加周五夜晚此 前"反内卷"收益品种的集体跌落，或可逐步去探这波国内宏观情绪的拐点。 ◆ 我们倾向于看铝价在7、8月有一定溢价空间的挤出，但是回调的深度不深，核心还是基于此波累库的高度并不看高。近 期出口需求看，基于小样本调研，下游铝加工材如汽车用板材对美的出口受6月关税及近期比价的不利影响，比较承压； 但对非美区域的专材出口，依然稳健，不过比价条件也影响部分利润。 ◆ 当前周频的微观基本面来看，本周SMM华东现货升水回落，截至本周五降至升水10元/吨；截至7月24日，铝锭社 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel market faces a conflict between macro and industrial factors, leading to intensified long - short game. The iron ore market experiences a redistribution of raw material profits, causing the ore price to decline under pressure. The coal - coke market shows wide - range fluctuations as market sentiment is realized. The ferroalloy market also sees intensified game due to emotional impacts on the market [3][6][79][132]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Steel Views - **Logic**: There is a conflict between macro and industrial factors, intensifying the long - short game. Overseas macro: The US - Japan trade agreement sets a 15% tariff, and the US - EU is expected to implement the same. The overseas macro situation is biased towards maintaining high - interest rates. Domestic macro: The speculative atmosphere in the coal - coke market is strong. The exchange has issued risk warnings and restricted positions, cooling down short - term supply - side trading. The demand side is waiting for the Politburo meeting. In the black产业链, steel demand in the off - season exceeds expectations, steel inventories are low, steel mill profits expand, and the decline of hot metal is slow, with poor negative feedback transmission [6][8]. - **Supply, Demand, and Inventory Data**: - Iron water production is 242.2 (- 0.2) tons, with a year - on - year increase of 2.6 tons. - Scrap steel production is 46.5 (- 2.3) tons, with a year - on - year decrease of 0.2 tons. - For rebar, supply is 212.0 (+ 2.9) tons, with a year - on - year decrease of 4.7 tons; demand is 216.6 (+ 10.4) tons, with a year - on - year decrease of 10.4 tons; inventory is 538.6 (- 4.6) tons, with a year - on - year decrease of 221.6 tons. - For hot - rolled coils, supply is 317.5 (- 3.6) tons, with a year - on - year decrease of 10.7 tons; demand is 315.2 (- 8.5) tons, with a year - on - year decrease of 6.1 tons; inventory is 345.2 (+ 2.3) tons, with a year - on - year decrease of 85.0 tons [7]. 2. Iron Ore Views - **Logic**: Overseas shipments increased month - on - month driven by Brazil, and the destocking trend at domestic ports has temporarily stopped. Downstream construction remains at a high level, and there is still support for immediate consumption demand. The "anti - involution" theme continues to ferment, and the expectation of price intervention in multiple industries is strengthening. The iron ore futures price has corrected from its high level because it is at a disadvantage in profit distribution in this round of the market [81]. - **Supply Data**: - Global iron ore shipments are 3109.1 (+ 122.0) tons, with a year - on - year increase of 199.0 tons. - Australian shipments are 1571.2 (- 116.7) tons, with a year - on - year decrease of 102.4 tons. - Brazilian shipments are 907.8 (+ 97.4) tons, with a year - on - year increase of 198.9 tons [80]. - **Contract Performance**: The price of the main 09 contract has fallen from its high, closing at 802.0 yuan/ton. The position is 529,000 lots, a decrease of 164,000 lots. The average daily trading volume is 519,000 lots, a week - on - week increase of 135,000 lots [83]. - **Spot Price**: The spot price remains relatively strong. For example, the price of Carajás fines (64.5%) has increased from 870 to 878 yuan/ton [87]. 3. Coal - Coke Views - **Supply**: There are expectations of supply contraction. Some coal mines in Shanxi and Shandong have resumed production, but some in other areas have reduced production, resulting in a slight decline in overall production. The sample coal mine raw coal production decreased by 2.27 tons week - on - week to 1225.61 tons, and the capacity utilization rate decreased by 0.16% week - on - week to 85.27% [134]. - **Demand**: Intermediate links are active, and there is a situation of short supply. Stimulated by policies, the black market has risen continuously, boosting the sentiment of the spot market. The speed of coke price increases has accelerated, and downstream coke enterprises and traders are actively purchasing [134]. - **Inventory**: The transfer of inventory rights from top to bottom is smooth. Coal mine inventories have decreased significantly, while downstream coke enterprises' raw material inventories have increased slightly. The sample coke enterprise raw material coal inventory increased by 0.20 days week - on - week to 7.04 days [134]. 4. Ferroalloy Views No detailed content provided in the given text.