【趋势强度】 2026 年 1 月 7 日 燃料油：转入强势，短期易涨难跌 低硫燃料油：跟涨走势，外盘现货高低硫价差 小幅收窄 梁可方 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0019111 liangkefang@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 燃料油基本面数据 | | 项目 | 单位 | 昨日收盘价 | 日 涨跌 | | 昨日结算价 | 结算价涨跌 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | FU2602 | 元/吨 | 2.484 | 2. 39% | | 2.479 | 1.02% | | | | EU2603 | 元/吨 | 2.479 | 1. 02% | | 2.471 | 0. 41% | | | | LU2602 | 元/吨 | 2,944 | 2. 26% | | 2.922 | 0.52% | | | | ГП2603 | 元/吨 | 2.925 | 0. 52% | | 2.927 | 0.34% | | | 期货 | | | 昨日成交 | 成交变动 | | 昨日持仓 | 持仓变动 | | | | FU2602 | 1 ...

2026 年 1 月 7 日 生猪：仍存累库行为 | 周小球 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0001891 | zhouxiaoqiu@gtht.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 吴昊 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018592 | wuhao8@gtht.com | | 【基本面跟踪】 | | | 生猪基本面数据 | | | 单 位 | 价 | 格 | 同 比 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 价 格 | 河南现货 | 元/吨 | | 12980 | 100 | | | | 四川现货 | 元/吨 | | 12850 | 0 | | | | 广东现货 | 元/吨 | | 12760 | -100 | | | 期 货 | | 单 位 | 价 | 格 | 同 比 | | | | 生猪2603 | 元/吨 | | 11810 | 150 | | | | 生猪2605 | 元/吨 | 12255 | | 145 | | | | 生猪2607 | 元/吨 | | 12940 | 140 | | | | | 单 位 | 成交量 | 较前日 ...

商 品 研 究 2026 年 01 月 07 日 焦炭：矛盾积累，宽幅震荡 焦煤：矛盾积累，宽幅震荡 刘豫武 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0023649 liuyuwu2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 焦煤焦炭基本面数据 | | | | 昨日收盘价(元/吨) | 涨跌(元/吨) | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | JM2605 | 1096 | 15. 5 | 1.4% | | 期货价格 | | 12605 | 1 655 | 6. 5 | 0. 4% | | | | | 昨日成交(手) | 昨日持仓(手) | 持仓变动(手) | | | | JM2605 | 898934 | 499345 | -2636 | | | | 12605 | 18752 | 36738 | 1564 | | | | | 昨日价格(元/吨) | 前日价格(元/吨) | 涨跌(元/吨) | | | | 临汾低硫主焦 | 1500 | 1500 | 0 | | | | 吕梁低硫主焦 | 1403 | 1403 | 0 | | | 焦煤 | 吕梁瘦主焦煤 | 1153 | ...

2026 年 01 月 07 日 品 研 究 华南油脂价格减主力合约期价；现货部分：指报告日前一交易日价格。 资料来源：同花顺 iFinD，国泰君安期货研究 棕榈油：基本面驱动不强，关注宏观情绪影响 豆油：单边区间为主，关注月差机会 | | | 【基本面跟踪】 油脂基本面数据 | | 棕榈油主力 | 单 位 元/吨 | 收盘价 (日盘） 8,500 | 涨跌幅 0.14% | 收盘价 （夜盘） 8,540 | 涨跌幅 0.47% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 豆油主力 菜油主力 | 元/吨 元/吨 | 7,912 | 0.71% 0.95% | 7,934 | 0.28% -0.53% | | | | | 9,130 | | 9,082 | | | 期 货 | 马棕主力 | 林吉特/吨 | 3,992 | -0.50% | 4,009 | 0.48% | | | CBOT豆油主力 | 美分/磅 | 49.39 | -0.96% | | | | | | 单 位 | 昨日成交 | 成交变动 | 昨日持仓 | 持仓变动 | | | 棕榈油主力 | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The trend strength of caustic soda is 1, indicating a moderately bullish outlook [5] Core View of the Report - Caustic soda's short - term trend may be strong due to macro - sentiment, but the spot market faces the impact of low - price warehouse receipts, and without production cuts by manufacturers, a significant rebound is difficult. The market may have a short - term rebound under the influence of anti - involution sentiment, but the overall high - production and high - inventory pattern persists, with weak demand [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - On January 7, 2026, the 03 - contract futures price was 2194, the price of the cheapest deliverable 32% caustic soda in Shandong was 690, the price of Shandong's 32% caustic soda converted to the futures market was 2156, and the basis was - 38 [1] Spot News - On January 6, the caustic soda market price in Shandong was weakly stable. Some enterprises with high - priced products and poor sales reduced prices, high - concentration caustic soda orders were scarce, export prices were low, and the market price continued to decline [2] Market Condition Analysis - After the New Year's Day, the caustic soda 2601 contract dropped significantly due to a large number of 01 - contract warehouse receipts and high pressure on long - position holders to take delivery, leading to massive position - closing. The pressure on near - month contracts and continuous spot price cuts also caused other contracts to weaken. However, based on the delivery situation, the closing price of the 01 contract on Monday night was 1940 yuan/ton, and long - position holders would not lose money. This price was much lower than Shandong Weiqiao's purchase price, and the discount to the spot was sufficient to cover storage and transaction costs, so the short - term decline due to delivery factors would be limited [3] - Fundamentally, caustic soda remains in a high - production and high - inventory pattern. On the demand side, the oversupply of alumina has not changed in the short term, and the expectation of production cuts suppresses the stockpiling of caustic soda. Non - aluminum downstream industries face a seasonal decline in rigid demand, and exports are under pressure, so overall demand lacks support. On the supply side, winter is the off - season for chlor - alkali enterprise maintenance, and with high operating rates, the supply pressure of caustic soda is large, and enterprises still face the pressure of reducing prices to clear inventory before the Spring Festival [3] - Overall, there is limited room for caustic soda to continue trading on the near - month delivery pressure. In the short term, driven by macro - sentiment, the trend may be strong. However, the spot market still faces the impact of low - price warehouse receipts. Without production cuts by manufacturers, caustic soda is unlikely to have an obvious rebound. Attention should also be paid to the shutdown of the Freeport chlor - alkali plant of Olin in the United States, which may have an impact on caustic soda exports [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - The cotton market maintains a strong trend. The price of domestic cotton futures and spot has increased, while the ICE cotton futures rose but lacked a clear fundamental upward driver, leading to a narrowing of the increase at the end of the session. The price of pure - cotton yarn showed a mixed trend, with the prices of medium - and low - count yarns weakening and high - count yarns remaining firm. Spinning mills' and weaving mills' operating rates were not optimistic [1][2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs (1) Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data** - CF2605 closed at 14,855 yuan/ton yesterday with a daily increase of 1.36% and 15,030 yuan/ton in the night session with a night - session increase of 1.18%. CY2603 closed at 20,875 yuan/ton yesterday with a daily increase of 1.46% and 21,020 yuan/ton in the night session with a night - session increase of 0.69%. ICE US cotton 3 closed at 65.14 cents/pound with a daily increase of 0.77% [1]. - CF2605 had a trading volume of 503,809 lots yesterday, a decrease of 131,926 lots from the previous day, and an open interest of 1,205,941 lots, an increase of 45,691 lots. CY2603 had a trading volume of 10,324 lots yesterday, a decrease of 1,999 lots from the previous day, and an open interest of 18,697 lots, an increase of 1,045 lots [1]. - The number of Zheng cotton warehouse receipts was 6,824 yesterday, an increase of 706, and the effective forecast was 2,570, a decrease of 681. The number of cotton yarn warehouse receipts was 20 yesterday, an increase of 1, and the effective forecast was 17, an increase of 1 [1]. - **Spot Data** - The price of Beijiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 15,690 yuan/ton, an increase of 200 yuan/ton from the previous day with a growth rate of 1.29%. The price of Nanjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was also 15,690 yuan/ton, an increase of 200 yuan/ton from the previous day with a growth rate of 1.29% [1]. - The price in Shandong was 15,768 yuan/ton, an increase of 120 yuan/ton from the previous day with a growth rate of 0.77%. The price in Hebei was 15,742 yuan/ton, an increase of 140 yuan/ton from the previous day with a growth rate of 0.90% [1]. - The 3128B index was 15,711 yuan/ton, an increase of 96 yuan/ton from the previous day with a growth rate of 0.61%. The international cotton index M: CNCottonM was 72.54 cents/pound, an increase of 0.44 cents/pound from the previous day with a growth rate of 0.61% [1]. - The price of pure - cotton combed 32 - count yarn was 21,240 yuan/ton, an increase of 40 yuan/ton from the previous day with a growth rate of 0.19%. The arrival price of pure - cotton combed 32 - count yarn was 20,958 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3 yuan/ton from the previous day with a decline rate of - 0.01% [1]. - **Spread Data** - The CF3 - 5 spread was - 10 yuan/ton, an increase of 15 yuan/ton from the previous day. The spread between Beijiang 3128 machine - picked cotton and CF605 was 840 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [1]. (2) Macro and Industry News - **Domestic Cotton Spot** - The trading atmosphere of domestic cotton spot was good, with active trading of spot fixed - price contracts and fair trading of partial locked - basis contracts. The fixed - price quotes of 2025/26 Nanjiang Kashgar machine - picked 3129/29B with impurities within 3.5 were mostly above 15,500 (on a conditioned weight basis), and those of the same - quality Beijiang machine - picked cotton were mostly above 15,700 (on a conditioned weight basis), for self - pick - up in Xinjiang. The mainstream basis of 2025/26 North and South Xinjiang machine - picked cotton in Shandong and Henan warehouses was mostly CF05 + 1500 - 1700, and the number of low - basis offers decreased, for self - pick - up in the inland [2]. - **Domestic Cotton Textile Enterprises** - The price center of pure - cotton yarn moved slightly upward locally, but the overall trading was light. Recently, the market of medium - and low - count yarns (including rotor - spun yarns) was weak due to poor terminal sales, and discounts were common in actual transactions, resulting in a continuous narrowing of enterprise profit margins. The demand for combed high - count yarns (40S and above) remained strong, and the sales were stable. Inland spinning mills continued to slightly reduce their operating rates to avoid inventory backlog risks and were mainly digesting previous orders. The operating rate of downstream weaving mills remained low [2]. - **US Cotton** - The ICE cotton futures rose yesterday, affected by the continuous increase in Chinese cotton prices and the possible further reduction of the cotton planting area in the US in 2026. However, the ICE cotton futures still lacked a clear fundamental upward driver, so the increase narrowed at the end of the session [2]. (3) Trend Intensity - The cotton trend intensity was 0, indicating a neutral trend. The range of trend intensity is an integer within the [- 2,2] interval, where - 2 represents the most bearish view and 2 represents the most bullish view [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The trend strength of PVC is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [4] Report's Core View - PVC is short - term bullish, but the upside space may be limited [1] - Short - term cost support, future maintenance expectations, and differential electricity price policies drive a phased rebound in PVC prices, but weak demand and high inventory restrict the upside [3] - The high - output and high - inventory structure in the PVC market is difficult to change in the short term, and the 03 contract and earlier futures contracts face a pattern of high operation and weak demand [3] - The expectation of large - scale production cuts may occur after the 03 contract, and the expectation of significant inventory accumulation during the Spring Festival and the contango structure limit the market's ability to trade low - valuation factors [3] - The overall chlor - alkali comprehensive profit is at a historically low level, and the supply - side production cut in the peak maintenance season next year may exceed expectations, which is beneficial for the profit repair of the chlor - alkali industry. However, due to the large contango, caution is needed when chasing high prices [3] - It is recommended to enter the market on the right side after seeing substantial large - scale maintenance plans on the supply side [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - For PVC, the 05 contract futures price is 4919, the East China spot price is 4480, the basis is - 439, and the 5 - 9 spread is - 133 [2] Spot News - Driven by industrial macro - expectations and the improvement of building materials products, the PVC futures market has risen rapidly, and the spot market quotes have been steadily raised. Trading has improved compared to the previous day, but terminal procurement demand remains cautious. The short - term supply - demand fundamentals remain unchanged, costs are stable, and the market shows a unilateral upward trend [2] Market Condition Analysis - PVC's high inventory and PVC warehouse receipts at a high level mean that future long - position delivery pressure is relatively large [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The cost of crude oil and propane is strong, the chemical allocation in the market is differentiated, and the hedging logic of aromatics - olefins is continuously strengthened. There is no new production before the 2605 contract on the supply side, and the game between stock supply and demand intensifies. The follow - up of new orders from downstream is weakening, and downstream factories are still cautious in purchasing, so the demand is weak. Overall, the fundamental support at the end of the year is limited. Although the PDH profit at the cost end has reached a new low, the upstream has locked raw materials and made some pre - sales in the early stage, so the willingness to reduce production is not strong. It is expected that PP will continue to be weak. Under the deep loss of PDH profit, focus on the marginal changes of PDH devices [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **LLDPE Futures Data**: The closing price of PP2605 yesterday was 6423, with a daily increase of 1.47%. The trading volume was 476,543, and the open interest changed by 13,147. The 05 - contract basis was - 203 (compared with - 160 the day before), and the 05 - 09 contract spread was - 36 (compared with - 25 the day before) [1] - **Important Spot Prices**: The spot prices in North China, East China, and South China yesterday were 6190 yuan/ton, 6220 yuan/ton, and 6300 yuan/ton respectively, showing an increase compared with the day before [1] Spot News - The market is relatively strong. Some arbitrage resources cannot be unwound. The sales pressure on the spot side is moderate, and traders generally have a strong willingness to hold prices. The prices of some tight - supply grades have increased slightly. The end - of - year demand is difficult to provide continuous elasticity, the sustainability of buying is questionable, and the warehouse receipts remain at a high level. The PP US dollar market price remains stable. Overseas suppliers are not very enthusiastic about offering prices to China, downstream customers continue to purchase on a just - in - time basis, and the trading volume is difficult to improve [1] Market Condition Analysis - Cost side: Crude oil and propane prices are strong. The chemical allocation in the market is differentiated, and the aromatics - olefins hedging logic is continuously strengthened. Supply side: There is no new production before the 2605 contract, and the game between stock supply and demand intensifies. Demand side: The follow - up of new orders from downstream is weakening, and downstream factories are still cautious in purchasing, so the demand is weak. Overall, at the end of the year, the fundamental support is limited. Although the PDH profit at the cost end has reached a new low, the upstream has locked raw materials and made some pre - sales in the early stage, so the willingness to reduce production is not strong. It is expected that PP will continue to be weak. Under the deep loss of PDH profit, focus on the marginal changes of PDH devices [2] Trend Intensity - The PP trend intensity is 0 [2]

商 品 研 究 2026 年 1 月 7 日 LLDPE：标品排产回落，现货坚挺 周富强 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0023304 zhoufuqiang@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 LLDPE 基本面数据 | 期 货 | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨跌 | 昨日成交 | 持仓变动 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | L2605 | 6579 | 2.02% | 542093 | -1038 | | 基差月差变化 | | 昨日价差 | | 前日价差 | | | | 05合约基差 | -179 | | -129 | | | | 05-09合约价差 | -39 | | -47 | | | 重要现货价格 | | 昨日价格 | （元/吨） | 前日价格 | （元/吨） | | | 北 华 | 6400 | | 6320 | | | | 华 东 | 6450 | | 6400 | | | | 华 南 | 6490 | | 6470 | | 资料来源：卓创资讯，国泰君安期货 【现货消息】 期货震荡走强，节前盘面反弹给到代理、期现商建仓机会，市场补空和套保成交积极，现货短期 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report [1][2][3] 2. Core Viewpoints - The industrial silicon market shows strong performance on the futures market due to news - related disturbances, and attention should be paid to the impact of today's market news on the polysilicon market [1] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market**: The closing price of Si2605 is 8,900 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 460,467 lots and an open interest of 234,611 lots. The closing price of PS2605 is 59,365 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 19,919 lots and an open interest of 72,353 lots [1] - **Basis**: The spot premium of industrial silicon (against East China Si5530) is +350 yuan/ton, and the spot premium of polysilicon (against N - type re - investment) is - 5,865 yuan/ton [1] - **Price**: The price of Xinjiang 99 - silicon is 8,700 yuan/ton, and the price of polysilicon - N - type re - investment material is 53,500 yuan/ton [1] - **Profit**: The profit of silicon plants in Xinjiang (new standard 553) is - 2,426.5 yuan/ton, and the profit of polysilicon enterprises is 9.2 yuan/kg [1] - **Inventory**: The social inventory of industrial silicon (including warehouse receipt inventory) is 55.7 million tons, and the factory inventory of polysilicon is 30.6 million tons [1] - **Raw Material Cost**: The price of silicon ore in Xinjiang is 320 yuan/ton, and the price of graphite electrodes is 12,450 yuan/ton [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - Shaanxi Province plans to implement a differential electricity price policy from July 1, 2026. Restricted - category enterprises will have an additional 0.1 yuan/kWh, and eliminated - category enterprises will have an additional 0.3 yuan/kWh. This policy involves 3 industrial silicon enterprises in Shaanxi [2] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of industrial silicon is 0, and the trend intensity of polysilicon is 0, indicating a neutral view [3]