Report Industry Investment Rating - The strength analysis of cast aluminum alloy is neutral, and the short - term trend is expected to be range - bound [2] Core Viewpoints - Due to the spread of anti - involution sentiment, the futures price of cast aluminum alloy is oscillating at a high level. Traditional seasonal patterns are weakening, and the price is expected to remain range - bound in the short term. As of July 25, the combined inventory of alloy ingot factories and social warehouses increased by 0.57 million tons to 10.68 million tons compared to the previous week. The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the smelting cost is rising. In July, although the total sales volume of domestic passenger cars increased year - on - year, there is pressure on sales growth as it is a traditional off - season [6] Summary by Directory Supply Side - Scrap Aluminum - Scrap aluminum production is at a high level, and social inventory is at a medium - high level in history. Scrap aluminum imports are also at a high level, with a relatively fast year - on - year growth rate. The refined - scrap price difference is rising trend - wise [9][14][19] Supply Side - Recycled Aluminum - The spot price of cast aluminum alloy has slightly increased, and the price difference between ADC12 and A00 has converged. The weekly operating rate of cast aluminum alloy has slightly decreased, while the monthly operating rate has increased. The cost of ADC12 is mainly composed of scrap aluminum, and currently, the average production is estimated to be in a loss. The factory inventory of cast aluminum alloy is rapidly decreasing, while social inventory is continuously accumulating. The import window for cast aluminum alloy is temporarily closed [27][37][39] Supply Side - Recycled Aluminum Rod - The production and inventory data of recycled aluminum rods are presented, including the production volume in different regions and the proportion of factory inventory in different areas [49][50] Demand Side - Terminal Consumption - The production of fuel - powered vehicles has rebounded, which has a positive impact on die - casting consumption. In July, although the total sales volume of domestic passenger cars increased year - on - year, there is pressure on sales growth due to it being a traditional off - season [57][6]

硅铁&锰硅观点：情绪冲击盘面，合金博弈加剧 | 资料来源：Mysteel、iFInd、国泰君安期货研究所 | | --- | Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 2 硅铁&锰硅产业链周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所 黑色金属 李亚飞 投资咨询从业资格号： Z0021184 金园园 （联系人）从业资格号：F03134630 日期： 2025年7月27日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint n 本周合金价格走势震荡偏强，周五市场上受到锰铁企业会议信息的影响，情绪冲击盘面价格，使得价格走势涨停。 n 宏观：国家发展改革委修订印发《固定资产投资项目节能审查和碳排放评价办法》，对项目用能和碳排放情况进行综合审查评价；锰铁相关会议召开，提出锰系工厂 开展节能计划，减少污染排放等相关内容。海外：美国与贸易对手关税谈判进度加快，本周与日本、印尼、菲律宾关税政策落地，第三轮中美贸易谈判将于下周一、 二举行，全球不确定性缓和，进一步提升市场风险偏好。 n 微观：铁水产量环比微缩，但日产量仍高于240万 ...

煤焦周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所·刘豫武 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021518 日期：2025年7月27日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 煤焦：情绪兑现，宽幅震荡 ◆ 1、供应：供给收缩预期扰动 ◆ 4、观点: ➢ 近期焦煤再度成为市场关注热点，主要系源自前期关于能源局发布的一则通知，对于八个主要产区的煤矿开展核查工作，炒作核心在于前期煤矿是否存在生产计划 不合理的情况，即单月产量不能超过公告产能的10%。但以第三方资讯商测算口径为准，主要煤炭生产省份超产相对较少，仅新疆在6月原煤产量有出现超产情况。 所以就近期煤焦盘面价格所呈现出的上涨或更多来自于情绪宏观扰动为主。从7月1号反内卷首次被提及以来，包括上周五工信部出台的文件，反复在强化后续相关 行业相关政策落地的可能，吹风会的频繁召开也是进一步地加强了市场信心。此外，从基本面供需角度来看同样给予了价格上涨的必要条件，一方面国内供应受政 策约束强化以及安检形势仍存的影响，焦煤产量继6月煤矿安全生产月之后整体恢复较为缓慢，另一方面随着终端盈利能力同步增强，下游及贸易 ...

纯苯、苯乙烯周报 国泰君安期货研究所·黄天圆 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018016 日期：2025年7月27日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 本周纯苯、苯乙烯观点：短期反内卷情绪高涨，实际影响有限，压缩EB利润 | | • | 反内卷：纯苯2005年以前产能326万吨，占比12%；加氢苯2005年以前产能74万吨，占比8%；苯乙烯2005年以前112万吨，占比5%。 | | --- | --- | --- | | | • | 纯苯国产：7月计划检修损失量9万吨左右（富海、福海创、浙石化、天津石化），8月检修损失量下滑至4万吨，9月计划检修量7万吨。 7-9月将集中迎来纯苯新装置投产。关注7月中海油大榭600万吨炼油、150万重整于7月21日投产，7月下京博100万吨轻烃裂解投产， | | | | 8月10日吉林石化100万吨乙烯裂解投产、8月底湖南石化100万吨重整投产，8月中下裕龙260万吨重整计划投产 | | 供应 | • | 纯苯进口：美国对海外持续征收关税以及美国国内下游装置重启，美国纯苯价格企稳反弹，U ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No specific investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - In the context of the stock - bond seesaw effect, Treasury bond futures have been continuously adjusting, maintaining a volatile downward trend, and the curve has become steeper [2]. - The continuous upward movement of some commodities may come to a temporary end, and Treasury bond futures may experience a mild rebound in the short term, but the view remains volatile and bearish. The view of a volatile and bearish trend in the second half of the year is maintained. Attention should be paid to going long on the inter - period spread, allocating at lows during over - corrections, and hedging at highs [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Focus and Market Tracking - Treasury bond futures contracts have been continuously adjusting on a weekly basis, and the curve has become steeper [3]. - In the Treasury bond futures market, the long - end is significantly under pressure, with the 30 - year main contract (TL) leading the decline, reflecting an increase in policy - expectation sensitivity. The marginal demand for short - end allocation has recovered, and speculative sentiment is significantly differentiated. The steepening trend of the yield curve has been strengthened, and the term spread has widened. Anti - involution policies have pushed up long - end interest rates, while short - end allocation demand provides bottom - support. Attention should be paid to the policy implementation rhythm, liquidity improvement signals, and Friday's data disclosure to verify the continuation of the curve structure [5]. 3.2 Liquidity Monitoring and Curve Tracking - The report provides a chart on liquidity monitoring and curve tracking, but no specific text - based summary information is given [7]. 3.3 Seat Analysis - Daily changes in net long positions by institutional type: Private funds decreased by 4.67%, foreign capital decreased by 9.42%, and wealth management subsidiaries decreased by 10.58%. Weekly changes: Private funds decreased by 1.89%, foreign capital decreased by 5.57%, and wealth management subsidiaries decreased by 5.47% [8].

国泰君安期货·能源化工 短纤、瓶片周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所 陈鑫超 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020238 贺晓勤 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0017709 钱嘉寅（联系人）期货从业资格号：F03124480 日期：2025年7月27日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 瓶片（PR） 短纤：短期震荡市，中期偏弱 估值与利润 基本面运行情况 供需平衡表 02 观点小结 上游观点汇总 瓶片：震荡偏弱 CONTENTS 03 短纤（PF） 估值与利润 基本面运行情况 2 01 观点小结 01 本周短纤观点：成本支撑，短期震荡偏强 | 供应 | 工厂新增减产不多，加工费高于成本叠加实物库存不高使得工厂减产意愿普遍不强。本周工厂平均开工率90.6%，纺纱用直纺涤短开工94.7%， | | --- | --- | | | 未来预计维持或小幅提升。关注反内卷措施对上游可能的影响。"反内卷" 对短纤的影响集中在可能的成本抬升（如MEG），短纤老装置虽 | | ...

国泰君安期货·能源化工 胶版印刷纸周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所·石忆宁 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0022533 日期：2025年7月27日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint CONTENTS 行业资讯 01 行情走势 02 供需数据 03 行情研判 04 行业资讯 现货价格 成本利润 季节性特征 供给 需求 库存 进出口 行情研判 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 2 行业资讯 1 行业资讯 1.【国内双胶纸周度企业库存分析】据卓创资讯数据监测统计，本周四双胶纸库存天数较上周四下降2.14%，本周降幅环比收窄0.22个百分 点。周内出版订单继续提货，但个别地区提货进度已接近尾声，纸厂出货较前期有所减缓，叠加社会面订单疲软，市场整体去库节奏减慢。 2.【国内双胶纸周度企业开工负荷分析】据卓创资讯数据统计，本周双胶纸开工负荷率在50.13%，较上周上升0.47个百分点，较上周涨幅收 02 行情走势 资料来源：同花顺iFinD，卓创资讯，国泰君安期货研究 日期 07-25 70g高 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating of the zinc industry is neutral [2] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Zinc prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term and remain bearish in the medium term. The supply is increasing while the demand is in the traditional off - season. Although the short - term inventory accumulation is moderate and the macro - environment provides some support, the long - term excess supply will lead to price pressure. It is advisable to hold short positions in the medium - long term and maintain long - short positions within the quarter [4] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Data - **Market Review**: The closing price of Shanghai Zinc Main Contract last week was 22,885, with a weekly increase of 2.65%. The closing price of last night's session was 22,715, with a night - session decline of 0.74%. The closing price of LmeS - Zinc 3 last week was 2,829, with a weekly increase of 0.18% [7] - **Futures Trading and Position Changes**: The trading volume of Shanghai Zinc Main Contract last Friday was 152,086, an increase of 1,020 compared to the previous week. The position was 129,228, an increase of 13,260. The trading volume of LmeS - Zinc 3 was 8,275, a decrease of 10,132 compared to the previous week, and the position was 190,675, an increase of 3,903 [7] - **Inventory Changes**: Shanghai Zinc warehouse receipt inventory increased by 1,928 to 13,289; Shanghai Zinc total inventory increased by 4,789 to 59,419; social inventory increased by 4,800 to 98,300; LME zinc inventory decreased by 3,325 to 115,775; bonded area inventory remained unchanged at 6,000 [7] - **Fundamental Data and Information**: Imported zinc ore processing fees remained at $55/ton; imported zinc ore smelting profit increased by 73 to - 1,765 yuan/ton; domestic zinc ore processing fees remained at 3,800 yuan/ton; domestic zinc ore smelting profit increased by 154 to 462 yuan/ton; galvanized sheet price increased by 120 to 4,050 yuan/ton [7] 3.2 Industry Chain Vertical and Horizontal Comparison - **Inventory**: Zinc ore and smelter finished product inventories have returned to high levels, and zinc ingot visible inventory has increased but remains low [10] - **Profit**: Zinc ore profit is at the forefront of the industry chain, and smelting profit is at a medium level. Mining enterprise profit is stable in the short term and at a historical medium level; smelting profit is stable and at a historical medium level; galvanized pipe enterprise profit is stable and at a medium - low level in the same period [12][13] - **Operation Rate**: The zinc concentrate operation rate has rebounded to a historical medium level; the refined zinc monthly operation rate is at a high level in the same period; among downstream industries, the galvanized operation rate has increased, while the die - cast zinc operation rate has decreased and is at a medium - low level in history [14][15] 3.3 Trading Aspect - **Spot**: Spot premium has significantly declined, and overseas premium is relatively stable. The structure of LME CASH - 3M has changed significantly [18][23] - **Spread**: The near - end of Shanghai Zinc shows a C structure, and the far - end structure is gradually shifting to a backwardation [25] - **Inventory**: Inventory at a low level shows a stable upward trend, and the position - to - inventory ratio has declined from a high level. Bonded area inventory is stable, and the total global zinc visible inventory has increased slightly [33][38] - **Futures**: The domestic position is at a relatively high level in the same period in history [39] 3.4 Supply - **Zinc Concentrate**: Zinc concentrate imports have declined, domestic zinc ore production is at a medium - low level, and the recovery rate of domestic and imported ore processing fees has slowed down. The arrival volume of zinc ore at ports is at a medium level, and smelter raw material inventory is abundant and at a high level in the same period in history [42][43] - **Refined Zinc**: Smelting output has marginally recovered, smelter finished product inventory is at a medium - high level in the same period in history, and zinc alloy output is at a high level [44] - **Import and Export**: Refined zinc imports are at a historical medium level [47] 3.5 Zinc Demand - **Downstream Processing Materials**: Refined zinc consumption growth rate is positive. The monthly operation rate of downstream industries has slightly decreased, and most are at medium - low levels in the same period in history. Downstream raw material and finished product inventories show different trends [56][59] - **Terminal**: The real estate market remains at a low level, and the power grid shows structural incremental growth [72] 3.6 Overseas Factors - There are fluctuations in European natural gas, carbon, and electricity prices, which may have an impact on the zinc market [74][75][76]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating of the lead industry is neutral, with a price range of 16,800 - 17,300 yuan/ton [3] Core Viewpoints - Domestic lead production is under pressure, and with the expectation of the consumption peak season, prices will be supported. The supply of primary lead is decreasing, and secondary lead is in continuous loss. As the consumption peak season approaches, the operating rate of lead-acid battery enterprises will rise. It is expected that the supply - demand contradiction of lead will gradually emerge in the third quarter, supporting price recovery. It is recommended to buy on dips, and there are still opportunities for cash - futures arbitrage in Shanghai lead [6] Summary by Directory Trading Aspects (Price, Spread, Inventory, Capital, Transaction, Position) - **Price**: The closing price of Shanghai lead main contract last week was 16,955 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 0.80%, and the closing price of the night session yesterday was 16,845 yuan/ton, with a decrease of - 0.65%. The closing price of LmeS - lead 3 last week was 2,037 dollars/ton, with a weekly increase of 1.27% [7] - **Spread**: LME lead basis increased by 0.78 dollars/ton compared to the previous week; Shanghai 1 lead spot basis decreased by 15 yuan/ton; the spread between near - month and consecutive - one contracts decreased by 5 yuan/ton [7] - **Inventory**: Shanghai lead warrant inventory decreased by 125 tons compared to the previous week, and the total inventory increased by 919 tons. Social inventory increased by 2,400 tons, and LME lead inventory decreased by 2,125 tons [7] - **Transaction and Position**: The trading volume of Shanghai lead main contract increased by 14,475 lots compared to the previous week, and the position increased by 22,746 lots. The trading volume of LmeS - lead 3 decreased by 4,557 lots, and the position increased by 6,194 lots [7] Lead Supply (Lead Concentrate, Waste Batteries, Primary Lead, Secondary Lead) - **Lead Concentrate**: The spot import TC of lead concentrate was - 60 dollars/dry ton, lower than last week's level, and the domestic concentrate processing fee was 500 yuan/ton, at a historical low [6] - **Primary Lead**: Some smelting enterprises in Henan are under continuous maintenance, a smelter in Jiangxi may slightly increase production, and a smelter in Inner Mongolia has resumed normal production, but the supply increase is limited [6] - **Secondary Lead**: The smelting profit of secondary lead is in large losses, with enterprises shutting down and resuming production coexisting, and the supply increase is restricted [6] Lead Demand (Lead - Acid Batteries, End - Users) - **Lead - Acid Batteries**: At the end of the month, some battery enterprises are conducting inventory checks, and the operating rate is slightly under pressure. However, as the consumption peak season approaches in August, the consumption of lead - acid batteries may improve, and the operating rate is likely to rise, with enterprises increasing raw material inventory on dips [6] - **End - Users**: The actual consumption of lead shows certain trends, and the production of related end - user products such as automobiles and motorcycles also has corresponding fluctuations [53]

二 〇 二 五 年 度 2025 年 7 月 27 日 动力煤：终端补库积极，震荡企稳 刘豫武 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021518 liuyuwu025832@gtjas.com 报告导读： 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 期货研究 （正文） 上周市场回顾： 上周动力煤现货报价呈现震荡偏强格局。 多头：1、主产地煤矿库存较上期减少 0.73 个百分点，月底少数中小煤矿月度生产任务完成停产减产，目前 冶金化工需求稳定，部分地方电厂补库需求释放，周边站台及煤场拉运积极性增加，多数煤矿销售良好，库 存维持低位运行。2、目前港口市场报价仍然高位坚挺，近期煤炭市场利好消息频出，市场参与者分歧逐渐 显现，多数贸易商观望煤矿超产核查情况，对后市保持乐观态度（汾渭信息）。 受供应政策预取约束冲击，产区及港口报价相对坚挺，但考虑到整体需求释放规模仍较有限，叠加后续供应 仍存修复预期，还盘压力同样具备。产地方面，主产区煤价延续偏强走势，部分中小煤矿月度产量完成停产 减产增多，目前冶金化工等终端采购稳定，站台煤场配煤等拉运积极。港口方面，市场情绪向好，港口发运 成本持续倒挂，库存小幅波动向下，市场优质货源补充不足，贸易商惜售 ...