Report Overview - Date: September 18, 2025 - Publisher: Guotai Junan Futures Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the industries are provided in the report. Core Views - **Palm Oil**: With no obvious upward or downward drivers, it is advisable to conduct range trading [2][4]. - **Soybean Oil**: As US soybeans fluctuate, the oil is undergoing a corrective adjustment [2][4]. - **Soybean Meal**: Influenced by the capital side, it has deviated from the fundamentals [2][12]. - **Soybean**: Affected by the atmosphere of the soybean market, it is oscillating at a low level [2][12]. - **Corn**: It is moving in an oscillatory manner [2][15]. - **Sugar**: It is trending downward in an oscillatory pattern [2][19]. - **Cotton**: The market is focused on the situation of new cotton listings [2][24]. - **Eggs**: The peak season for spot sales is approaching its end, and the inventory remains high [2][31]. - **Hogs**: Although policy expectations have been realized, the weakness of the spot market persists [2][33]. - **Peanuts**: Attention should be paid to the listing of new peanuts [2][38]. Summary by Commodity Palm Oil and Soybean Oil - **Fundamental Data**: Palm oil's main contract closed at 9,424 yuan/ton during the day session with a -0.61% decline, and 9,388 yuan/ton at night with a -0.38% decline. Soybean oil's main contract closed at 8,366 yuan/ton during the day session with a -0.62% decline, and 8,350 yuan/ton at night with a -0.19% decline [4]. - **Macro and Industry News**: From September 1 - 15, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil production decreased by 8.05% compared to the same period last month, with a 6.94% decrease in yield and a 0.21% decrease in oil extraction rate. Malaysia's palm oil exports from September 1 - 15 were 695,716 tons (AmSpec) or 404,688 tons (SGS), showing a decrease compared to the same period last month [5][6][7]. - **Trend Intensity**: Both palm oil and soybean oil have a trend intensity of 0 [11]. Soybean Meal and Soybean - **Fundamental Data**: DCE soybean 2511 closed at 3,895 yuan/ton during the day session with a -0.99% decline, and 3,895 yuan/ton at night with a -0.49% decline. DCE soybean meal 2601 closed at 3,002 yuan/ton during the day session with a -1.44% decline, and 3,012 yuan/ton at night with a -0.23% decline [12]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On September 17, CBOT soybeans closed lower due to long - position liquidation, a decline in soybean oil, and an increase in the US dollar index. The US EPA plans to redistribute the biofuel blending obligations of small refineries to large refineries [12][13]. - **Trend Intensity**: Both soybean meal and soybean have a trend intensity of 0 [14]. Corn - **Fundamental Data**: The price of the C2511 contract was 2,161 yuan/ton during the day session with a -0.37% decline, and 2,173 yuan/ton at night with a 0.56% increase. The price of the C2601 contract was 2,155 yuan/ton during the day session with a -0.14% decline, and 2,165 yuan/ton at night with a 0.46% increase [16]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The northern port collection price of corn was 2,240 - 2,260 yuan/ton, and the price at Guangdong Shekou was 2,400 - 2,420 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged from the previous day [17]. - **Trend Intensity**: Corn has a trend intensity of 0 [18]. Sugar - **Fundamental Data**: The raw sugar price was 15.51 cents/pound, a decrease of 0.39 cents. The mainstream spot price was 5,940 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The futures main contract price was 5,529 yuan/ton, a decrease of 18 yuan [19]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points. Brazil's sugar production in the second half of August increased by 18% year - on - year. India's monsoon precipitation increased again. Brazil's sugar exports decreased, raising concerns about global consumption. Conab lowered Brazil's sugar production forecast for the 25/26 season to 44.5 million tons [19]. - **Trend Intensity**: Sugar has a trend intensity of -1 [22]. Cotton - **Fundamental Data**: The CF2601 contract closed at 13,890 yuan/ton during the day session with a -0.04% decline, and 13,870 yuan/ton at night with a -0.14% decline. The CY2511 contract closed at 19,910 yuan/ton during the day session with a -0.20% decline, and 19,900 yuan/ton at night with a -0.05% decline [24]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The overall trading of cotton spot was sluggish, and the market was waiting for new cotton listings. The trading of the pure cotton yarn market was lukewarm, weaker than the same period in previous years [25]. - **Trend Intensity**: Cotton has a trend intensity of 0 [28]. Eggs - **Fundamental Data**: The egg 2510 contract closed at 3,059 yuan/500 kilograms with a -1.83% decline, and the egg 2601 contract closed at 3,376 yuan/500 kilograms with a -0.18% decline [31]. - **Trend Intensity**: Eggs have a trend intensity of 0 [31]. Hogs - **Fundamental Data**: The Henan spot price was 12,980 yuan/ton, a decrease of 250 yuan. The Sichuan spot price was 12,800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 150 yuan. The Guangdong spot price was 13,960 yuan/ton, a decrease of 200 yuan [34]. - **Market Logic**: Group companies significantly reduced their sales volume, but the weight increased again, and the price difference between fat and lean hogs weakened, indicating a serious passive inventory accumulation. The supply in September is expected to increase significantly, and the market pressure will be prominent from September to October [36]. - **Trend Intensity**: Hogs have a trend intensity of -2 [35]. Peanuts - **Fundamental Data**: The PK510 contract closed at 7,818 yuan/ton with a 0.23% increase, and the PK511 contract closed at 7,822 yuan/ton with a 0.72% increase [38]. - **Spot Market Focus**: In some regions, the price of peanuts was stable. Some areas are expected to have new peanuts listed in about 10 days [39]. - **Trend Intensity**: Peanuts have a trend intensity of 0 [40].

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the content about the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term market shows an upward trend due to anti - deflation and anti - involution expectations. The key to disproving the bullish logic lies in the delivery, with the next delivery pressure possibly in the 11 - contract. The time window from late September to the end of October is difficult to disprove the bullish view [4][140]. - From 2022 - 2024, real estate and glass spot markets showed quarterly improvements in the fourth quarter. However, the glass spot price has rarely increased by over 20% during these periods. Exceeding expectations in anti - involution measures is needed to address the current weak basis [4][140]. - From 2025 - 2026, the glass industry will trend towards energy cleaning and electrification, as indicated by policies from the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, and local environmental protection departments [13][140]. - The soda ash industry has a more severe supply surplus than the glass industry. Its future trend is expected to be similar to that of glass, but it may be weaker during the upward phase and stronger during the downward phase [5][140]. - Currently, bonds and stocks are trading based on the anti - deflation logic. The weak reality of glass and soda ash has to yield to the capital logic. The market will return to the weak - reality delivery logic during the policy - free period in the late fourth quarter [7][140]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Glass Market Outlook - The glass market is expected to be volatile and bullish until facing delivery pressure again. The rise is driven by expectations, while the fall is due to delivery [4]. Bullish and Bearish Logics - **Bearish**: Terminal demand has not improved, real estate transactions are weak, futures are at a significant premium (01 contract is about 200 higher than the spot), and the anti - involution policy for glass is not clear, so significant production cuts may not occur [4]. - **Bullish**: The delivery pressure of the 09 contract has ended, the anti - involution policy may exceed expectations and cannot be disproven in the short term, and real estate and glass spot markets usually improve quarter - on - quarter in the fourth quarter [4]. Points to Note - Before the National Day, there may be a squeeze on virtual positions. The next delivery pressure is expected in the 11 - contract, and the time window from late September to early November is more favorable for bulls [7]. - Inventory in Shahe has decreased by 50% year - on - year, in Hubei by 16.5%, and nationally by 15%. After the end of August, national inventory has decreased slightly month - on - month. In the past three years, the glass industry has mainly reduced inventory in the fourth quarter, limiting the downside of spot prices [7]. - The limit of the forward premium due to warehouse receipt pressure in the past three years is about 200 yuan/ton, and the current spread between the 01 and 11 contracts is 110 yuan/ton [7]. - The coal - to - gas conversion in Shahe may be a market speculation point, but its real impact is limited [7]. Supply - Cold - repaired production lines in 2025 have a total daily melting capacity of 11,680 tons/day, newly ignited production lines have a total daily melting capacity of 13,210 tons/day, potential new ignition production lines have a total daily melting capacity of 14,790 tons/day, potential old - line复产 production lines have a total daily melting capacity of 9,930 tons, and potential cold - repaired production lines have a total daily melting capacity of 6,900 tons/day [51][52][53]. - Current in - production capacity is about 160,000 tons/day, with a peak of 178,000 tons/day in 2021. The net capacity in 2024 decreased by 17,000 tons compared to the beginning - of - year high, but there has been no significant contraction in 2025 [57][58][61]. - The most likely devices to stop production are those ignited before 2017, accounting for 22.5% of the total capacity. Most domestic devices were cold - repaired between 2017 - 2021, accounting for nearly 44% [61]. Price and Profit - Shahe prices are around 1,120 - 1,160 yuan/ton, Hubei prices are around 1,040 - 1,120 yuan/ton, and prices in East China are around 1,220 - 1,320 yuan/ton. Recent spot prices have changed little, with a weakening basis and month - spread [71][72]. - Profits are about 30 yuan/ton for petroleum - coke - fueled devices, - 174 yuan/ton for natural - gas - fueled devices, and 100 yuan/ton for coal - fueled devices [75][79]. Inventory and Spread - Recent transactions have improved slightly, and inventory has declined. Most regions have seen a slowdown in inventory accumulation. Downstream restocking is mainly due to low prices, and terminal demand has not expanded significantly [82][84]. - Comparing the market in the past three years, there has been a high probability of quarter - on - quarter improvement, but the spot price rarely increases by over 20%. The glass industry needs to improve both supply and demand to change the long - term negative feedback [87][88]. - Regional arbitrage shows that prices in different regions are stable, and low - price regions have slightly better transactions than high - price regions [90]. Photovoltaic Glass - The domestic photovoltaic glass market has good overall transactions, with prices fluctuating upward. The mainstream order price of 2.0mm coated panels is about 13 yuan/square meter, and that of 3.2mm coated panels is about 20 yuan/square meter [98][100]. - Production capacity has changed little recently, trading has improved, and inventory has declined. The number of in - production production lines is 408, with a total daily melting capacity of 89,290 tons/day, a year - on - year decrease of 15.34%. The sample inventory days are about 16.13 days, a 12.13% decrease month - on - month [102][104][109]. Soda Ash Supply and Maintenance - Maintenance devices are gradually resuming production, and the operating rate has increased slightly. The capacity utilization rate is 87.3% (86.2% last week), and the current weekly output of heavy soda ash is 422,000 tons/week [113][115]. - Inventory is about 1.8 million tons, with 76,000 tons of light soda ash and 1.04 million tons of heavy soda ash [120][121]. Price and Profit - Futures have rebounded, and spot traders' quotes have increased slightly, while manufacturers' quotes have changed little. The nominal prices in Shahe and Hubei are around 1,210 - 1,400 yuan/ton [129][130]. - The profit of the combined - alkali method in East China (excluding Shandong) is - 54.5 yuan/ton, and the profit of the ammonia - alkali method in North China is - 36.3 yuan/ton [136]. Market Scenario - The soda ash market is moving towards a weaker situation. Under different demand assumptions (weak, neutral, and optimistic), there are different supply - demand gaps [137].

| 2025/9/17 | 有色及贵金属日度数据简报 | 王蒙 | 李先飞 | 刘雨萱 | Z0012691 | Z0020476 | Z0002529 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 国泰君安期货研究所有 | jixianfei@gtht.com | wangrong2@gtht.com | liuyuxuan@gtht.com | 色及贵金属组 | 王宗源(联系人) | 张再宇 | F03142619 | Z0021479 | | | | | | | | | zhangzaiyu@gtht.com | wangzongyuan@gtht.com | 黄金 (AU) | 今天 | 前一交易日 | 上周 | 上月 | | | | | | | | | | | 指标名称 | 2025/8/20 | 2025/9/17 | 2025/9/16 | 2025/9/10 | 沪金主力收盘价(元/克) | 835. 08 ...

Report Date - The report is dated September 17, 2025 [1] Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoint - Stock index options are experiencing an upward volatility trend, with implied volatility rising to a medium-high level. It is advisable to consider building long option positions on dips for protection [1] Key Data Summaries 1. Underlying Market Statistics - **Indices**: The closing prices of the Shanghai 50 Index, CSI 300 Index, and CSI 1000 Index were 2952.78, 4551.02, and 7554.81 respectively, with increases of 4.96, 27.69, and 71.18. Their trading volumes were 56.67 billion, 235.72 billion, and 301.71 billion shares respectively, showing decreases of 0.97 billion, 13.55 billion, and 7.30 billion shares [2] - **ETFs**: The closing prices of various ETFs such as SSE 50 ETF, Huatai-PineBridge CSI 300 ETF, and Southern CSI 500 ETF showed different degrees of increase, and their trading volumes also had corresponding changes [2] 2. Option Market Statistics - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volumes and open interests of various stock index options and ETF options showed different degrees of increase or decrease. For example, the trading volume of SSE 50 Index Options increased by 11,756 to 57,826, and the open interest increased by 4,820 to 105,477 [2] - **PCR Indicators**: The VL-PCR and OI-PCR of different options also varied. For instance, the VL-PCR of SSE 50 Index Options was 48.38%, and the OI-PCR was 63.55% [2] 3. Option Volatility Statistics - **ATM-IV and HV**: The at-the-money implied volatility (ATM-IV) and historical volatility (HV) of different options showed different trends. For example, the ATM-IV of SSE 50 Index Options (near - month) was 21.94%, with an increase of 2.39%, and the HV was 7.38%, with an increase of 4.06% [5] - **Skew and VIX**: The skew and VIX of different options also had corresponding changes. For example, the skew of SSE 50 Index Options (near - month) was 14.02%, with an increase of 9.46%, and the VIX was 22.08, with an increase of 0.874 [5] Option - Specific Charts - For each type of option (SSE 50 Index Options, CSI 300 Index Options, etc.), there are charts showing full - contract PCR,主力 contract volatility,主力 contract skew, volatility cone, and volatility term structure [9][13][16]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core View of the Report - Both silicon iron and manganese silicon are expected to have a relatively strong and volatile trend due to the boost of macro - sentiment [1]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: For silicon iron, the closing price of SF2511 is 5700, with no change from the previous trading day, and the trading volume is 210,936, and the open interest is 212,449; the closing price of SF2601 is 5680, up 20 from the previous day, with a trading volume of 80,355 and an open interest of 95,537. For manganese silicon, the closing price of MS2511 is 5920, up 26 from the previous day, with a trading volume of 170,580 and an open interest of 115,197; the closing price of MS2601 is 5944, up 38 from the previous day, with a trading volume of 220,244 and an open interest of 335,721 [1]. - **Spot Data**: The price of silicon iron FeSi75 - B in Inner Mongolia is 5400 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton from the previous day; the price of silicon manganese FeMn65Si17 in Inner Mongolia is 5730 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton from the previous day; the price of manganese ore Mn44 block is 40.0 yuan/ton - degree, up 0.2 yuan/ton - degree from the previous day; the price of small - sized semi - coke in Shenmu is 650 yuan/ton [1]. - **Price Spread Data**: The spot - futures price spread of silicon iron (spot - 11 futures) is - 300 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton; the spot - futures price spread of manganese silicon (spot - 01 futures) is - 214 yuan/ton, up 24 yuan/ton. The near - far month price spread of silicon iron (SF2511 - SF2601) is 20 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton; the near - far month price spread of manganese silicon (MS2511 - MS2601) is - 24 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan/ton. The cross - variety price spread of MS2511 - SF2511 is 220 yuan/ton, up 26 yuan/ton; the cross - variety price spread of MS2601 - SF2601 is 264 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan/ton [1]. Macro and Industry News - **Silicon Iron and Manganese Silicon Prices**: On September 16, the price of 72 silicon iron in Shaanxi is 5200 - 5300 (+50), in Ningxia is 5350 - 5450 (+100), in Qinghai is 5250 - 5350 (+50), in Gansu is 5350 - 5400 (+50), and in Inner Mongolia is 5350 - 5400 (+50); the price of 75 silicon iron in Shaanxi is 5900, in Ningxia is 5700 - 5800, in Qinghai is 5750 - 5800, in Gansu is 5800 - 5850, and in Inner Mongolia is 5800 (cash - inclusive natural lump ex - factory, yuan/ton). The FOB price of 72 silicon iron is 1040 - 1060, and that of 75 is 1100 - 1130 (US dollars/ton, inclusive of tax). The northern quotation of 6517 silicon manganese is 5650 - 5750 yuan/ton, and the southern quotation is 5700 - 5800 yuan/ton (cash ex - factory tax - inclusive quotation) [1]. - **Steel Mill's Purchase**: A steel mill in Shandong has finalized the purchase price of 75B silicon iron at 5740 yuan/ton in cash, with a quantity of 200 tons [1]. - **South Korea's Manganese Ore Import**: In August 2025, South Korea imported 110.02 tons of manganese ore, a sharp 99.73% decline from the previous month. From January to August 2025, South Korea imported a total of 248,588 tons of manganese ore, a slight 13.4% increase year - on - year, but a significant 58.14% decrease compared with the same period in 2023. Due to the low iron alloy prices and high electricity costs, most South Korean alloy producers are not operating at full capacity, and some are still cutting production by 30% - 50%, resulting in low manganese ore imports since 2023 [2][3]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of silicon iron is 1, and that of manganese silicon is 1. The range of trend intensity is an integer within the [- 2,2] interval, with - 2 indicating the most bearish and 2 indicating the most bullish [3].

观点与策略 | 镍：冶炼端矛盾并不凸显，关注矿端消息面风险 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 不锈钢：长短线逻辑博弈，钢价或震荡运行 | 2 | | 碳酸锂：震荡运行，供给增量制约上方空间 | 4 | | 工业硅：逢高布空思路为主 | 6 | | 多晶硅：关注市场信息 | 6 | 2025年09月17日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-绿色金融与新能源 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 9 月 17 日 镍：冶炼端矛盾并不凸显，关注矿端消息面风险 不锈钢：长短线逻辑博弈，钢价或震荡运行 张再宇 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021479 zhangzaiyu@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 镍基本面数据 | | | 指标名称 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-10 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 沪镍主力（收盘价） | 122,610 | 30 | 1,910 | 80 | 2,010 | 2,920 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the industry are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report This report provides trend forecasts and analysis of fundamental data for various commodities, including precious metals, base metals, energy, agricultural products, etc. It also presents macro and industry news and calculates the trend strength of each commodity. The overall view is that most commodities will show a trend of range - bound or volatile fluctuations, and some commodities will be affected by factors such as supply - demand relations, macro - economic policies, and international news [2][5]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Precious Metals - **Gold**: Expected to have a downward revision of non - farm employment, with a trend strength of 0, and prices may be affected by the Fed's interest rate decision [2][7]. - **Silver**: Forecasted to break through and move upward, with a trend strength of 0 [2][7]. Base Metals - **Copper**: Before the Fed's decision, prices will be cautious, with a trend strength of 0. The industry has major events such as mergers and production changes [2][12]. - **Zinc**: Will have a range - bound shock, with a trend strength of 0 [2][15]. - **Lead**: Lacks obvious driving forces, and prices will fluctuate, with a trend strength of 0 [2][18]. - **Tin**: Will experience range - bound fluctuations, with a trend strength of 0 [2][21]. - **Aluminum**: Will have a range - bound shock; Alumina will grind the bottom in a shock; Casting aluminum alloy will follow electrolytic aluminum, all with a trend strength of 0 [2][26]. - **Nickel**: The contradiction in the smelting end is not prominent, and attention should be paid to the news - related risks in the ore end, with a trend strength of 0; Stainless steel will have a game between long - and short - term logics, and steel prices may fluctuate, with a trend strength of 0 [2][29]. Energy and Chemicals - **Carbonate Lithium**: Will fluctuate, and the increase in supply restricts the upward space, with a trend strength of 0 [2][36]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The main idea is to short at high prices; Polysilicon requires attention to market information, with a trend strength of 0 for industrial silicon and 1 for polysilicon [2][40]. - **Iron Ore**: Expectations will fluctuate repeatedly, with a wide - range shock, and a trend strength of - 1 [2][43]. - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: The anti - involution sentiment is back, and both will have a relatively strong shock, with a trend strength of 1 [2][46][47]. - **Silicon Ferrosilicon and Manganese Ferrosilicon**: Boosted by macro - sentiment, both will have a relatively strong shock, with a trend strength of 1 [2][52]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: Expectations will fluctuate repeatedly, with a wide - range shock, and a trend strength of 0 [2][55][56]. - **Log**: Will fluctuate repeatedly, with a trend strength of 0 [2][58]. Others - **LPG**: Will have a short - term narrow - range and relatively strong shock [2][50]. - **Propylene**: Will operate weakly at a high level in the short term [2][50]. - **PVC**: Will have a wide - range shock [2][53]. - **Fuel Oil**: Will rebound following crude oil and have a short - term adjustment trend; Low - sulfur fuel oil will continue to rise, and the price difference between high - and low - sulfur in the overseas spot market will rise slightly [2][54]. - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: The contract in October will operate under pressure; Contracts in December and February will have a wide - range shock [2][55]. - **Short - Fiber and Bottle Chip**: Will follow cost fluctuations in the short term, with a weak trend [2][58]. - **Offset Printing Paper**: Will fluctuate at a low level [2][59]. - **Pure Benzene**: Will fluctuate in the short term and be weak in the fourth quarter [2][61]. - **Palm Oil**: Supported by US soybean oil, boosted by macro - factors; Soybean oil: US soybeans continue to rise, and attention should be paid to the results of Sino - US negotiations [2][62]. - **Soybean Meal**: Affected by optimistic trade sentiment, will fluctuate at a low level; Soybean: Will fluctuate [2][64]. - **Corn**: Will fluctuate [2][66]. - **Sugar**: Has a weak basis [2][67]. - **Cotton**: The market focuses on the situation of new cotton listing [2][68]. - **Egg**: The peak season for spot goods is coming to an end, and inventory is still high [2][70]. - **Live Pig**: The policy expectations have been implemented, but the weakness of spot goods is hard to change [2][71]. - **Peanut**: Attention should be paid to the listing of new peanuts [2][72].

季先飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 jixianfei@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 商 品 研 究 2025 年 09 月 17 日 铜：美联储决议前，价格谨慎 铜基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪铜主力合约 | 80,870 | -0.09% | 80900 | 0.04% | | | 伦铜3M电子盘 | 10,117 | -0.71% | - | - | | | | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | 昨日持仓 | 较前日变动 | | 期 货 | 沪铜主力合约 | 70,647 | 1,776 | 175,014 | -4,242 | | | 伦铜3M电子盘 | 16,815 | -218 | 292,000 | -2,646 | | | | 昨日期货库存 | 较前日变动 | 注销仓单比 | 较前日变动 | | | 沪铜 | 33,692 | 3,049 | - | - | | | 伦铜 | 150,950 | -1,675 | 10.47% | -0.79% ...

商 品 研 究 2025 年 09 月 17 日 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 豆粕：贸易乐观情绪，低位震荡 豆一：震荡 吴光静 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011992 wuguangjing@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 豆粕/豆一基本面数据 | | | 收盘价 （日盘） | 涨 跌 | 收盘价 （夜盘） | 涨 跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | DCE豆一2511 （元/吨） | 3924 | -18（-0.46%） | 3930 | -4（-0.10%） | | 期 货 | DCE豆粕2601 （元/吨） | 3041 | -10（-0.33%） | 3033 | -13（-0.43%） | | | CBOT大豆11 （美分/蒲） | 1049 | +5.75（+0.55%） | | | | | CBOT豆粕12 （美元/短吨） | 286.1 | +0.2 （+0.07%） | | n a | | | | | 豆粕 （43%） | | | | | | 3020～3040， | 较昨-40至持平； 9月M2601-40， | 持平； | ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Ratings - Aluminum: Range-bound oscillations [1] - Alumina: Oscillating at the bottom [1] - Cast aluminum alloy: Following the trend of electrolytic aluminum [1] 2. Core Views - The report updates the fundamental data of aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy, including futures and spot market prices, trading volumes, positions, spreads, and inventory levels [1]. - The market trends of aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy are analyzed, with aluminum expected to range - bound, alumina to oscillate at the bottom, and cast aluminum alloy to follow electrolytic aluminum [1]. - The Fed's interest - rate decision is in a "four - way battle" situation, and the strong growth of US retail sales in August may influence the Fed's decision [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Aluminum**: The closing price of the SHFE aluminum main contract was 20,975 yuan, down 45 yuan from the previous day; the LME aluminum 3M closing price was 2,712 US dollars, up 8 US dollars. Trading volume and open interest showed different changes compared with previous periods [1]. - **Alumina**: The closing price of the SHFE alumina main contract was 2,979 yuan, up 44 yuan. Trading volume increased significantly, while open interest decreased slightly [1]. - **Aluminum alloy**: The closing price of the aluminum alloy main contract was 20,480 yuan, down 65 yuan. Trading volume and open interest also had corresponding changes [1]. Spot Market - **Aluminum**: The electrolytic aluminum enterprise profit was 4,562.01 yuan, up 19.25 yuan. Domestic aluminum ingot social inventory was 629,000 tons, unchanged from the previous day [1]. - **Alumina**: The domestic average price of alumina was 3,083 yuan, down 11 yuan. The profit of Shanxi alumina enterprises was 28 yuan, down 10 yuan [1]. - **Aluminum alloy**: The theoretical profit of ADC12 was 170 yuan, up 8 yuan. The three - place inventory totaled 48,620 tons, up 102 tons [1]. Other Information - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy is all 0, indicating a neutral trend [3]. - **US Economic News**: The Fed's interest - rate decision has a "four - way battle" situation. US retail sales in August increased by 0.6% month - on - month, with strong consumer spending potentially influencing the Fed's decision [3].