1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating of the zinc industry is neutral [2] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Zinc prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term and remain bearish in the medium term. The supply is increasing while the demand is in the traditional off - season. Although the short - term inventory accumulation is moderate and the macro - environment provides some support, the long - term excess supply will lead to price pressure. It is advisable to hold short positions in the medium - long term and maintain long - short positions within the quarter [4] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Data - **Market Review**: The closing price of Shanghai Zinc Main Contract last week was 22,885, with a weekly increase of 2.65%. The closing price of last night's session was 22,715, with a night - session decline of 0.74%. The closing price of LmeS - Zinc 3 last week was 2,829, with a weekly increase of 0.18% [7] - **Futures Trading and Position Changes**: The trading volume of Shanghai Zinc Main Contract last Friday was 152,086, an increase of 1,020 compared to the previous week. The position was 129,228, an increase of 13,260. The trading volume of LmeS - Zinc 3 was 8,275, a decrease of 10,132 compared to the previous week, and the position was 190,675, an increase of 3,903 [7] - **Inventory Changes**: Shanghai Zinc warehouse receipt inventory increased by 1,928 to 13,289; Shanghai Zinc total inventory increased by 4,789 to 59,419; social inventory increased by 4,800 to 98,300; LME zinc inventory decreased by 3,325 to 115,775; bonded area inventory remained unchanged at 6,000 [7] - **Fundamental Data and Information**: Imported zinc ore processing fees remained at $55/ton; imported zinc ore smelting profit increased by 73 to - 1,765 yuan/ton; domestic zinc ore processing fees remained at 3,800 yuan/ton; domestic zinc ore smelting profit increased by 154 to 462 yuan/ton; galvanized sheet price increased by 120 to 4,050 yuan/ton [7] 3.2 Industry Chain Vertical and Horizontal Comparison - **Inventory**: Zinc ore and smelter finished product inventories have returned to high levels, and zinc ingot visible inventory has increased but remains low [10] - **Profit**: Zinc ore profit is at the forefront of the industry chain, and smelting profit is at a medium level. Mining enterprise profit is stable in the short term and at a historical medium level; smelting profit is stable and at a historical medium level; galvanized pipe enterprise profit is stable and at a medium - low level in the same period [12][13] - **Operation Rate**: The zinc concentrate operation rate has rebounded to a historical medium level; the refined zinc monthly operation rate is at a high level in the same period; among downstream industries, the galvanized operation rate has increased, while the die - cast zinc operation rate has decreased and is at a medium - low level in history [14][15] 3.3 Trading Aspect - **Spot**: Spot premium has significantly declined, and overseas premium is relatively stable. The structure of LME CASH - 3M has changed significantly [18][23] - **Spread**: The near - end of Shanghai Zinc shows a C structure, and the far - end structure is gradually shifting to a backwardation [25] - **Inventory**: Inventory at a low level shows a stable upward trend, and the position - to - inventory ratio has declined from a high level. Bonded area inventory is stable, and the total global zinc visible inventory has increased slightly [33][38] - **Futures**: The domestic position is at a relatively high level in the same period in history [39] 3.4 Supply - **Zinc Concentrate**: Zinc concentrate imports have declined, domestic zinc ore production is at a medium - low level, and the recovery rate of domestic and imported ore processing fees has slowed down. The arrival volume of zinc ore at ports is at a medium level, and smelter raw material inventory is abundant and at a high level in the same period in history [42][43] - **Refined Zinc**: Smelting output has marginally recovered, smelter finished product inventory is at a medium - high level in the same period in history, and zinc alloy output is at a high level [44] - **Import and Export**: Refined zinc imports are at a historical medium level [47] 3.5 Zinc Demand - **Downstream Processing Materials**: Refined zinc consumption growth rate is positive. The monthly operation rate of downstream industries has slightly decreased, and most are at medium - low levels in the same period in history. Downstream raw material and finished product inventories show different trends [56][59] - **Terminal**: The real estate market remains at a low level, and the power grid shows structural incremental growth [72] 3.6 Overseas Factors - There are fluctuations in European natural gas, carbon, and electricity prices, which may have an impact on the zinc market [74][75][76]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating of the lead industry is neutral, with a price range of 16,800 - 17,300 yuan/ton [3] Core Viewpoints - Domestic lead production is under pressure, and with the expectation of the consumption peak season, prices will be supported. The supply of primary lead is decreasing, and secondary lead is in continuous loss. As the consumption peak season approaches, the operating rate of lead-acid battery enterprises will rise. It is expected that the supply - demand contradiction of lead will gradually emerge in the third quarter, supporting price recovery. It is recommended to buy on dips, and there are still opportunities for cash - futures arbitrage in Shanghai lead [6] Summary by Directory Trading Aspects (Price, Spread, Inventory, Capital, Transaction, Position) - **Price**: The closing price of Shanghai lead main contract last week was 16,955 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 0.80%, and the closing price of the night session yesterday was 16,845 yuan/ton, with a decrease of - 0.65%. The closing price of LmeS - lead 3 last week was 2,037 dollars/ton, with a weekly increase of 1.27% [7] - **Spread**: LME lead basis increased by 0.78 dollars/ton compared to the previous week; Shanghai 1 lead spot basis decreased by 15 yuan/ton; the spread between near - month and consecutive - one contracts decreased by 5 yuan/ton [7] - **Inventory**: Shanghai lead warrant inventory decreased by 125 tons compared to the previous week, and the total inventory increased by 919 tons. Social inventory increased by 2,400 tons, and LME lead inventory decreased by 2,125 tons [7] - **Transaction and Position**: The trading volume of Shanghai lead main contract increased by 14,475 lots compared to the previous week, and the position increased by 22,746 lots. The trading volume of LmeS - lead 3 decreased by 4,557 lots, and the position increased by 6,194 lots [7] Lead Supply (Lead Concentrate, Waste Batteries, Primary Lead, Secondary Lead) - **Lead Concentrate**: The spot import TC of lead concentrate was - 60 dollars/dry ton, lower than last week's level, and the domestic concentrate processing fee was 500 yuan/ton, at a historical low [6] - **Primary Lead**: Some smelting enterprises in Henan are under continuous maintenance, a smelter in Jiangxi may slightly increase production, and a smelter in Inner Mongolia has resumed normal production, but the supply increase is limited [6] - **Secondary Lead**: The smelting profit of secondary lead is in large losses, with enterprises shutting down and resuming production coexisting, and the supply increase is restricted [6] Lead Demand (Lead - Acid Batteries, End - Users) - **Lead - Acid Batteries**: At the end of the month, some battery enterprises are conducting inventory checks, and the operating rate is slightly under pressure. However, as the consumption peak season approaches in August, the consumption of lead - acid batteries may improve, and the operating rate is likely to rise, with enterprises increasing raw material inventory on dips [6] - **End - Users**: The actual consumption of lead shows certain trends, and the production of related end - user products such as automobiles and motorcycles also has corresponding fluctuations [53]

二 〇 二 五 年 度 2025 年 7 月 27 日 动力煤：终端补库积极，震荡企稳 刘豫武 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021518 liuyuwu025832@gtjas.com 报告导读： 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 期货研究 （正文） 上周市场回顾： 上周动力煤现货报价呈现震荡偏强格局。 多头：1、主产地煤矿库存较上期减少 0.73 个百分点，月底少数中小煤矿月度生产任务完成停产减产，目前 冶金化工需求稳定，部分地方电厂补库需求释放，周边站台及煤场拉运积极性增加，多数煤矿销售良好，库 存维持低位运行。2、目前港口市场报价仍然高位坚挺，近期煤炭市场利好消息频出，市场参与者分歧逐渐 显现，多数贸易商观望煤矿超产核查情况，对后市保持乐观态度（汾渭信息）。 受供应政策预取约束冲击，产区及港口报价相对坚挺，但考虑到整体需求释放规模仍较有限，叠加后续供应 仍存修复预期，还盘压力同样具备。产地方面，主产区煤价延续偏强走势，部分中小煤矿月度产量完成停产 减产增多，目前冶金化工等终端采购稳定，站台煤场配煤等拉运积极。港口方面，市场情绪向好，港口发运 成本持续倒挂，库存小幅波动向下，市场优质货源补充不足，贸易商惜售 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Brent and WTI may still have a chance to challenge $80 per barrel in the third quarter, and SC may challenge 580 yuan per barrel. In the long - term, there is significant downward pressure on oil prices. Brent and WTI may test $50 per barrel this year, and SC may test 420 yuan per barrel [5]. - In the short - term, the valuation is at a medium level and there is still a chance to rise. The strategy includes short - term bottom - fishing and long - term high - selling [5]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Overview - This week's view on crude oil is to hold long positions. In the third quarter, there may still be a chance to challenge $80. Supply shows that Russian crude oil supply is resilient, and non - Russian supply has significant changes. Demand is differentiated, with different trends in refineries and refined oil products in different regions [5]. 3.2 Macro - The long - end US Treasury yield fluctuates significantly, and the gold - oil ratio rebounds. Overseas inflation rises, and the service industry PMI rebounds. The RMB exchange rate continues to strengthen, and social financing recovers [11][16][17]. 3.3 Supply - OPEC + core member countries: Saudi Arabia leads the August OPEC + production increase plan. Iraq's Kirkuk crude oil plans to resume exports by the end of the year. The UAE reduces the allocation of Murban crude oil. Other countries also have various production and export situations [7]. - Non - OPEC +: The US shale oil production and drilling rig numbers decline. Kazakhstan, Venezuela, and other countries also have different supply changes. OPEC + is accelerating the exit from production cuts, and non - OPEC + supply is expected to increase in 2025 [8]. 3.4 Demand - The spot demand turns weak marginally. In different regions, China's new refining capacity will be released in the second half of the year. Asian and European refineries have different raw material preferences. The demand for refined oil products is polarized, with tight diesel supply and weak gasoline demand [9]. 3.5 Inventory - The US commercial inventory rebounds, and the inventory in the Cushing area stabilizes but is significantly lower than the historical average. The European crude oil inventory rebounds, while diesel and gasoline are destocking. The domestic refined oil profit is repaired [58][63][65]. 3.6 Price, Spread, and Position - The North American basis rebounds slightly, the monthly spread declines, SC is stronger than the outer market and the monthly spread strengthens, and the net long position stabilizes [68][70][75].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints The report analyzes the weekly situation of the log market, including supply, demand, inventory, price trends, and other influencing factors. The market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand, with the main contract price fluctuating at a relatively high level and the monthly spread tending to narrow. [16] Summary by Directory Overview - The prices of mainstream delivery products in Shandong and Jiangsu markets remained unchanged from the previous week. European spruce and fir in the Jiangsu market were still in short supply. [4] - As of July 20, 29 ships departed from New Zealand in July, with 26 bound for mainland China. It is expected that 16 ships will arrive in July and 13 in August, with an estimated arrival volume of 1.63 million cubic meters in July. [5] - As of the week of July 18, the daily average shipment volume of Lanshan Port and Taicang Port decreased week-on-week. The total inventory of the four major ports increased by 101,500 cubic meters compared to the previous week. [6] - As of the week of July 26, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) increased by 10.0% week-on-week, and the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) decreased by 3.3%. The US dollar index fluctuated at a low level, with the US dollar to RMB exchange rate decreasing by 0.4% week-on-week and the US dollar to New Zealand dollar exchange rate slightly decreasing by 0.9%. [6] Supply - As of July 20, 29 ships departed from New Zealand in July, with 26 bound for mainland China, 3 for Taiwan, China, and South Korea for unloading. It is expected that 16 ships will arrive in July and 13 in August, with an estimated arrival volume of 1.63 million cubic meters in July. [5][8] - Detailed information on the departure time, load capacity, current port, next port, and estimated arrival time of each ship is provided. [9] Demand and Inventory - As of the week of July 18, the daily average shipment volume of Lanshan Port was 18,600 cubic meters (a week-on-week decrease of 6,000 cubic meters), and that of Taicang Port was 10,500 cubic meters (a week-on-week decrease of 5,000 cubic meters). [6][13] - In terms of port inventory, Lanshan Port had about 1.2318 million cubic meters (a week-on-week increase of 51,000 cubic meters), Taicang Port had about 514,800 cubic meters (a week-on-week increase of 8,400 cubic meters), Xinminzhou had about 446,800 cubic meters (a week-on-week increase of 36,500 cubic meters), and Jiangdu Port had about 222,800 cubic meters (a week-on-week increase of 5,600 cubic meters). The total inventory of the four major ports was 2.4162 million cubic meters, an increase of 101,500 cubic meters compared to the previous week. [6][13] Market Trends - As of July 25, the closing price of the main contract LG2509 was 830 yuan per cubic meter, an increase of 0.8% from the previous week. The market showed a pattern of high-level fluctuations, and the fundamentals maintained a weak supply and demand pattern. [16] - This week, the monthly spread tended to narrow. The 09 - 11 monthly spread was -8 yuan per cubic meter, the 09 - 01 monthly spread was -12.5 yuan per cubic meter, and the 11 - 01 monthly spread was -4.5 yuan per cubic meter. [16] Price and Spread - The prices of various log species and specifications in Shandong and Jiangsu markets remained mostly unchanged from the previous week, with only a few showing slight changes. [20][22] - The report also analyzed the regional price differences between Shandong and Jiangsu for different log species and specifications, as well as the price differences between different tree species and specifications. [23][38] Other - As of the week of July 26, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) was 2,257 points, an increase of 205 points (10.0%) from the previous week, and its related sub - index, the Handysize Shipping Index BHSI, was 682 points, an increase of 1.3% from the previous week. The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) was 1,593 points, a decrease of 3.3% from the previous week. [53] - In terms of exchange rates, the US dollar index fluctuated at a low level. The US dollar to RMB exchange rate was 7.154, a week-on-week decrease of 0.4%, and the US dollar to New Zealand dollar exchange rate slightly decreased by 0.9% to 1.662. [53]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - This week, the prices of fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil will mainly show a narrow - range fluctuation, with LU stronger than FU. Given the current high global refinery operating rate, the supply of both high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil will increase marginally. The recovery of Middle Eastern refineries has significantly boosted the global high - sulfur supply, and the positive factors from marine fuel and power generation demands have been fully priced in the market. Recently, the high - sulfur transactions in the Singapore market have weakened. For low - sulfur fuel oil, although the maintenance of Brazilian refineries has basically ended, some spot goods have not been exported to the Asia - Pacific region, so the short - term low - sulfur price will remain stable. In the domestic market, the production scheduling of major refineries is gradually recovering. With sufficient quotas, exports in June have increased significantly, and it is expected that the scale will remain stable in July and August. The domestic low - sulfur fuel oil will continue to weaken month - on - month [4]. - Valuation: FU is in the range of 2800 - 3000, and LU is in the range of 3500 - 3700 [4]. - Strategies: (1) Unilateral: Follow the upward - trending oscillation of crude oil. (2) Inter - period: The back structure of FU and LU will continue, but the increase in near - term supply will keep the monthly spread at a low level. (3) Inter - variety: The FU cracking spread has fallen to the historical average level; the LU - FU spread will remain high in the short term [4]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Supply - **Refinery Operating Rate**: The document presents the capacity utilization rates of Chinese refineries (crude oil: atmospheric and vacuum distillation), independent refineries, and major refineries from 2016 - 2025 [6]. - **Global Refinery Maintenance**: It shows the maintenance volumes of global CDU, hydrocracking, FCC, and coking units from 2018 - 2025 [9][11][13][14]. - **Domestic Refinery Fuel Oil Production and Commercial Volume**: It includes the monthly production of fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, and domestic commercial volume of fuel oil in China from 2018 - 2025 [20]. 3.2 Demand - **Domestic and Foreign Fuel Oil Demand Data**: It shows the monthly actual consumption of marine fuel oil in China, the monthly sales of fuel oil for ship supply in Singapore, and the monthly apparent consumption of fuel oil in China from 2018 - 2025 [23]. 3.3 Inventory - **Global Fuel Oil Spot Inventory**: It includes the inventory data of heavy oil in Singapore, fuel oil in European ARA, heavy distillates in Fujairah, and residual fuel oil in the US from 2018 - 2025 [27][29][30]. 3.4 Price and Spread - **Asia - Pacific Regional Spot FOB Prices**: It shows the FOB prices of 3.5% and 0.5% fuel oil in Singapore, Fujairah, and other places from 2018 - 2025 [35][36][37]. - **European Regional Spot FOB Prices**: It includes the FOB prices of 3.5% and 1% fuel oil in the Mediterranean, north - western Europe, and other places, as well as the FOB prices of 3.5% and 0.5% fuel oil in the US Gulf, and the cargo price of high - sulfur fuel oil in New York Harbor from 2018 - 2025 [39][40][42][44][45]. - **Paper and Derivative Prices**: It shows the prices of high - sulfur and low - sulfur swaps in north - western Europe and Singapore, as well as the prices of FU and LU contracts from 2021 - 2025 [47][49][52]. - **Fuel Oil Spot Spread**: It includes the viscosity spread and high - low sulfur spread in Singapore from 2018 - 2025 [55][56]. - **Global Fuel Oil Cracking Spread**: It shows the cracking spreads of high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil in Singapore and north - western Europe from 2019 - 2025 [58][60][61]. - **Global Fuel Oil Paper Monthly Spread**: It includes the monthly spreads of high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil in Singapore and north - western Europe from 2022 - 2025 [65][66]. 3.5 Import and Export - **Domestic Fuel Oil Import and Export Data**: It shows the monthly import and export volumes of fuel oil (excluding biodiesel) in China from 2018 - 2025 [71][73][74]. - **Global High - Sulfur Fuel Oil Import and Export Data**: It shows the weekly changes in the import and export volumes of global high - sulfur fuel oil in different regions [76]. - **Global Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil Import and Export Data**: It shows the weekly changes in the import and export volumes of global low - sulfur fuel oil in different regions [78]. 3.6 Futures Market Indicators and Internal - External Spreads - **Internal - External Spreads in the Spot and Futures Markets**: It shows the internal - external spreads of 380 and 0.5% fuel oil in the spot and futures markets, as well as the internal - external spreads of FU and LU contracts from 2021 - 2025 [81][85][86][87][88][89]. - **Changes in FU and LU Positions and Trading Volumes**: It shows the trading volumes and positions of fuel oil main contracts, low - sulfur fuel oil contracts from 2020 - 2025 [91][93][96][98][99]. - **Changes in FU and LU Warehouse Receipt Quantities**: It shows the changes in the warehouse receipt quantities of FU and LU from 2020 - 2025 [102][103].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - Considering the current mediocre fundamental performance, the short - term valuation of asphalt is expected to have no outstanding performance and may remain neutral to weak. Attention should be paid to the possible unilateral crude oil market brought by tariff policies and the geopolitical situation in the Middle East [5]. - The shipment of asphalt is slow, and the valuation continues to be weak. The supply has decreased, and the downstream demands asphalt at low prices. The brand competition in the north - south market has intensified, and the prices in some provinces are under pressure [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Overview - **Supply**: The capacity utilization rate of 77 domestic heavy - traffic asphalt enterprises is 28.8%, a 4.0% decrease from the previous week. The domestic asphalt processing profit has slightly increased, with a weekly average of - 524 yuan/ton, a 10 - yuan increase from the previous week. The supply in Shandong and East China has decreased, but there is an expected slight increase in Shandong next week [4]. - **Demand**: Downstream customers purchase low - priced asphalt as needed. The brand competition in the north - south market has intensified, and prices in some provinces are under pressure. Rain in Shandong has hindered terminal demand, while some terminal projects in East China are under concentrated construction, increasing the demand for 70 and modified asphalt [4]. - **Valuation**: During the week, BU fluctuated with crude oil. The weekly average price of domestic asphalt was 3784 yuan/ton, a 3 - yuan increase from the previous period. The price fluctuation range was 3764 - 3794 yuan/ton, with an expanded range. Four regions saw price drops, two regions had price increases, and one region remained stable [5]. - **Strategy**: For cross - period trading, consider partial profit - taking on reverse spreads; for cross - variety trading, consider partial profit - taking on short crack spreads [5]. 3.2 Price & Spread - **Cost Structure**: The cost of asphalt is related to various crude oils such as Brent, WTI, imported diluted asphalt, and Ma Rui crude oil. Different crude oils have different advantages in terms of raw material supply, such as no need for crude oil quotas and exemption from consumption tax [8]. - **Futures and Spot**: The report presents data on futures prices, trading volume, and positions, as well as spot prices of heavy - traffic asphalt and Ma Rui crude oil, and price differences between regions [12][13]. - **Basis and Calendar Spread**: The report shows the basis and calendar spread data of asphalt over the years [17][19]. 3.3 Fundamental Data - **Demand** - **Consumption Distribution**: The demand for asphalt is mainly in the road market (including highway construction and maintenance), waterproofing market, ship - fuel market, coking market, and export market. The road market is affected by policies, project progress, and investment [23]. - **Downstream Shipment**: From July 16 - 22, 2025, the total shipment of 54 domestic asphalt enterprises was 41.5 tons, a 0.2% increase from the previous week. The capacity utilization rate of 69 domestic modified asphalt enterprises was 14.5%, a 0.1% decrease from the previous week and a 2.5% increase from the same period last year [28]. - **Supply** - **Supply Pattern**: The supply of asphalt comes from domestic refineries and imports. Domestic refineries include state - owned and local refineries, and imports mainly come from South Korea and Singapore. Key supply indicators include inventory, production, profit, maintenance plans, and monthly production schedules [29]. - **Production, Maintenance, and Raw Materials**: From July 18 - 24, 2025, the weekly total production of domestic asphalt was 51.7 tons, a 1.5% decrease from the previous week and a 12.1% increase from the same period last year. As of July 24, 2025, the inventory of 54 asphalt sample refineries was 72.3 tons, a 4.0% decrease from July 21, and the inventory of 104 social warehouses was 185.7 tons, a 0.1% decrease from July 21 [32]. - **Start - up**: The report shows the weekly start - up rates of asphalt refineries in different regions over the years [35]. - **Inventory**: The report presents the inventory rates of asphalt refineries and the total asphalt market inventory rates in different regions over the years [45].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The nickel price is expected to fluctuate within a range due to the resonance of macro and news factors, with the policy expectations of macro - structural adjustment and supply optimization fermenting, but the logic between fundamental verification and macro expectations may fluctuate before clear policies on nickel are implemented. The nickel ore support is weakening, and the low - cost supply increment of refined nickel and high inventory in the ferronickel segment have an impact on the price [1]. - The marginal direction of stainless steel prices is dominated by macro sentiment, and the elasticity of the real - world fundamental logic is poor. The macro policy expectations on the domestic supply - side boost commodities, but a clear policy is needed for a trend - upward movement. The supply - demand of stainless steel shows a double - weak pattern, and the price is expected to follow the macro sentiment and fluctuate within a range [2]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs 3.1 Nickel Fundamentals - **Macro and News Factors**: Macro policy expectations are fermenting, but no clear policies on nickel have been implemented. Short - term policy news from Indonesia is frequent but within market expectations. APNI suggests re - evaluating the HPM formula for nickel ore, and the Indonesian government may change the RKAB approval cycle [1]. - **Real - world Situation**: The support of nickel ore is weakening, with the premium starting to decline in July after an increase in Indonesian quota approvals, and the fire - method cash cost has decreased by 1.4%. Refined nickel inventory is stable in the short term, but the expected increase in low - cost supply is a drag. Ferronickel inventory is high, but marginal restocking slightly boosts the price [1]. 3.2 Stainless Steel Fundamentals - **Macro and Real - world Logic**: Macro sentiment dominates the marginal direction of steel prices. The real - world fundamental logic has poor elasticity. The macro policy expectations on the supply - side boost commodities, but specific policies are needed for a trend - upward movement [2]. - **Supply - demand Situation**: The supply - demand of stainless steel shows a double - weak pattern. The resonance production cuts in China and Indonesia from June to July have alleviated the over - supply situation. The apparent demand in June increased by 2% year - on - year, and the production in June increased by 4% year - on - year, while the production plan for July decreased [2]. 3.3 Inventory Changes - **Refined Nickel Inventory**: China's refined nickel social inventory increased by 135 tons to 39,114 tons, with an increase in warehouse receipt inventory and a decrease in spot inventory. LME nickel inventory decreased by 3,654 tons to 203,922 tons [3]. - **Ferronickel Inventory**: The ferronickel inventory in mid - July was 37,534 tons, up 50% year - on - year and down 11% month - on - month [5]. - **Stainless Steel Inventory**: On July 24, 2025, the total social inventory of stainless steel decreased by 2.54% week - on - week. The inventory of various types of stainless steel also decreased [5]. - **Nickel Ore Inventory**: The nickel ore inventory at 14 Chinese ports increased by 395,100 wet tons to 9.8787 million wet tons [5]. 3.4 Market News - **Trade - related News**: In March, the governor of Ontario, Canada, proposed to stop exporting nickel to the US in response to US tariff threats [6]. - **Project - related News**: In April, the first - phase project of Indonesia's CNI ferronickel RKEF, EPC - contracted by China ENFI, entered the trial - production stage [6]. - **Environmental - related News**: Environmental violations were found in the IMIP in Indonesia, and possible fines may be imposed on the verified illegal companies [6]. - **Policy - related News**: Indonesia plans to shorten the mining quota period from three years to one year, and mining companies need to resubmit the 2026 RKAB starting from October 2025 [6][7]. - **Production - related News**: Due to long - term production losses, an Indonesian ferronickel smelting industrial park has suspended the production of all EF production lines, which is expected to affect the monthly ferronickel output by about 1,900 metal tons [7]. 3.5 Weekly Key Data Tracking - **Futures Data**: Data on the closing prices, trading volumes, and spreads of Shanghai nickel and stainless steel futures, as well as the prices and spreads of various nickel - related products such as imported nickel, ferronickel, and nickel ore are provided [9].

Report Summary 1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The current situation of the pig market is characterized by strong expectations but weak reality, and attention should be paid to path changes [1] - In the short - term, the spot price of live pigs will oscillate weakly, and the futures price of the LH2509 contract will be in the range of 13000 - 14500 yuan/ton, with the 2026 contract entering the industrial profit - locking logic stage [3][4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs This Week's Market Review (7.21 - 7.27) - **Spot Market**: Pig prices are running weakly. The price of 20KG piglets in Henan is 37.5 yuan/kg, the price of live pigs in Henan is 14.18 yuan/kg, and the price of 50KG binary sows nationwide is 1628 yuan/head. The supply side shows a slight increase from large - scale farms and some reluctance to sell from smallholders. The demand side remains at a low level and is suppressed by high temperatures. The average slaughter weight nationwide is 124.68KG, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.21% [2] - **Futures Market**: Pig futures prices fluctuate significantly. The highest price of the LH2509 contract is 15150 yuan/ton, the lowest is 14160 yuan/ton, and the closing price is 14385 yuan/ton. The basis of the LH2509 contract is - 205 yuan/ton [2] Next Week's Market Outlook (7.28 - 8.03) - **Spot Market**: The spot price of live pigs will oscillate weakly. In the off - season, the adjustment of slaughter volume by large - scale farms has a greater impact on prices. As the peak season approaches in the second half of the year, the release of social inventory will increase, and the influence of large - scale farms will decline. In August, the contradictions will start to be released. The supply side has relatively high inventory accumulation, and the demand side is suppressed by high temperatures. The policy of purchases for storage may provide support [3] - **Futures Market**: The LH2509 contract price has been affected by strong macro - sentiment this week. However, as it approaches the position - limit period, it will gradually return to the industrial logic. The far - month 2026 contract will enter the industrial profit - locking logic stage. The short - term support level for the LH2509 contract is 13000 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 14500 yuan/ton [4] Other Data - **Basis and Monthly Spread**: This week's basis is - 205 yuan/ton, and the LH2509 - LH2511 monthly spread is 0 yuan/ton [9] - **Supply**: The average weight this week is 124.68KG. In May, pork production was 549.6 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.3%; in June, pork imports were 8.84 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.6% [12]

豆油：缺乏有效驱动，关注中美谈判结果 二 〇 二 五 年 度 2025 年 7 月 27 日 棕榈油：宏观情绪消退，基本面或有回踩 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 李隽钰 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021380 lijunyu@gtht.com 上周观点及逻辑： 棕榈油：国内宏观情绪偏好将棕榈油顶至三年高位，但基本面缺乏强驱动，没有强供给题材的上涨需 要较强的下游需求进行承接，印度承接乏力的情况下价格高位难以继续上冲，棕榈油 09 合约周跌 0.31%。 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 豆油：中美贸易谈判临近，豆系紧张情绪抬头，对国内豆油弱现实有所改善，但仍难以给出上涨的强 驱动，豆油 09 合约周跌 0.20%。 期货研究 本周观点及逻辑： 报告导读： 棕榈油：MPOB 报告 6 月库存微增后利空落地开启反弹，同时今年库存高点已经从 4 月以来被盘面逐步 消化，棕榈油基本面无新增有效利空，市场开始交易下半年去库行情，同时国内宏观情绪偏好，将棕榈油 顶至三年高位，但当下的基本面未免显得这个价格不配位。从产地基本面来看，我们预估 7 月产量仍难以 达到 180 万吨，同时前 25 日出口情绪偏差，预估在 ...