Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - On January 5, 2026, all four major stock index futures contracts for the current month rose, with IF up 2.07%, IH up 2.42%, IC up 2.81%, and IM up 2.37% [1]. - On the trading day, the total trading volume of stock index futures rebounded, indicating increased trading enthusiasm among investors. The total trading volume of IF, IH, IC, and IM increased by 20,649 lots, 6,347 lots, 29,217 lots, and 24,485 lots respectively. In terms of positions, the total positions of IF, IH, IC, and IM increased by 8,201 lots, 3,543 lots, 22,660 lots, and 13,346 lots respectively [2]. - The trend strength of IF and IH is 1, and that of IC and IM is also 1. The A - share market had a good start in 2026, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by more than 1% and returning to 4,000 points, and the ChiNext Index surging nearly 3%. The Hong Kong stock market fluctuated slightly up, with the biotechnology and semiconductor industries strengthening [6][7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Stock Index Futures Data Tracking - **CSI 300 and Related Futures**: The CSI 300 closed at 4,717.8, up 1.90%. Among its futures, IF2601 closed at 4,714, up 2.07%, with a basis of - 3.75; IF2602 closed at 4,702.6, up 2.14%, with a basis of - 15.15; IF2603 closed at 4,697, up 2.26%, with a basis of - 20.75; IF2606 closed at 4,649.8, up 2.23%, with a basis of - 67.95 [1]. - **SSE 50 and Related Futures**: The SSE 50 closed at 3,099.8, up 2.26%. Among its futures, IH2601 closed at 3,097.4, up 2.42%, with a basis of - 2.35; IH2602 closed at 3,099.6, up 2.59%, with a basis of - 0.15; IH2603 closed at 3,098.8, up 2.55%, with a basis of - 0.95; IH2606 closed at 3,088.8, up 2.56%, with a basis of - 10.95 [1]. - **CSI 500 and Related Futures**: The CSI 500 closed at 7,651.2, up 2.49%. Among its futures, IC2601 closed at 7,664.8, up 2.81%, with a basis of 13.6; IC2602 closed at 7,624.8, up 2.95%, with a basis of - 26.4; IC2603 closed at 7,596, up 3.11%, with a basis of - 55.2; IC2606 closed at 7,417, up 3.27%, with a basis of - 234.2 [1]. - **CSI 1000 and Related Futures**: The CSI 1000 closed at 7,753.9, up 2.09%. Among its futures, IM2601 closed at 7,759.2, up 2.37%, with a basis of 5.32; IM2602 closed at 7,697.8, up 2.56%, with a basis of - 56.08; IM2603 closed at 7,639, up 2.69%, with a basis of - 114.9; IM2606 closed at 7,403.4, up 2.76%, with a basis of - 350.5 [1]. 3.2. Position Changes of the Top 20 Futures Members - For IF contracts, in IF2601, long positions decreased by 607 and short positions increased by 347; in IF2603, long positions increased by 5,858 and short positions increased by 5,971; in IF2606, long positions increased by 1,027 and short positions increased by 490 [5]. - For IH contracts, in IH2601, long positions decreased by 62 and short positions increased by 168; in IH2603, long positions increased by 2,259 and short positions increased by 2,443; in IH2606, long positions increased by 206 and short positions increased by 91 [5]. - For IC contracts, in IC2601, long positions increased by 598 and short positions increased by 1,459; in IC2603, long positions increased by 11,123 and short positions increased by 12,210; in IC2606, long positions increased by 2,786 and short positions increased by 2,146 [5]. - For IM contracts, in IM2601, long positions decreased by 1,660 and short positions decreased by 909; in IM2602, long positions increased by 2,233 and short positions increased by 2,659; in IM2603, long positions increased by 4,700 and short positions increased by 8,413 [5]. 3.3. Market Trends and Drivers - **A - share Market**: The A - share market had a good start in 2026. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.38% to 4,023.42 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 2.24%, the ChiNext Index rose 2.85%, the Beixin 50 rose 1.8%, the Kechuang 50 rose 4.41%, and the Wind All - A Index rose 1.99%. The total trading volume was 2.57 trillion yuan, compared with 2.07 trillion yuan the previous day [6]. - **Hong Kong Stock Market**: The Hong Kong stock market fluctuated slightly up. The Hang Seng Index rose 0.03% to 26,347.24 points, the Hang Seng Tech Index rose 0.09% to 5,741.63 points, and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index fell 0.22% to 9,148.47 points. The market trading volume was HK$283.462 billion, significantly higher than the previous trading day's HK$140.864 billion [7]. - **US Stock Market**: The three major US stock indexes all closed up. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1.23% to 48,977.18 points, reaching a new record high; the S&P 500 Index rose 0.64% to 6,902.05 points; the Nasdaq Composite Index rose 0.69% to 23,395.82 points [8].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the content. Core Views of the Report - Multiple commodities are in various market conditions, including high - level oscillations, short - term upward trends, and medium - term pressure. For example, p - xylene and PTA are in a high - level oscillation market supported by costs; MEG has limited upward space and medium - term pressure; synthetic rubber has a short - term upward central shift; methanol is expected to be short - term strong [2][9][10][14][38]. - The market trends of different commodities are affected by multiple factors such as supply and demand, geopolitical factors, and cost changes. For instance, the supply and demand of PX and PTA are affected by device startups and shutdowns; the prices of LPG and methanol are affected by geopolitical factors; the prices of urea are affected by demand expectations [9][10][38][41]. Summary by Commodity PX, PTA, MEG - **Market Data**: PX, PTA, and MEG futures prices declined on the previous trading day, with declines of - 0.69%, - 1.25%, and - 1.87% respectively. PX CFR China prices dropped, PTA prices in East China decreased, and MEG spot prices also fell. PX - naphtha spreads and PTA processing fees increased slightly, while short - fiber and bottle - chip processing fees decreased [5]. - **Market Dynamics**: PX prices fell due to the decline in naphtha prices; Pakistan imposed anti - dumping duties on PTA imports from China; MEG port inventories in East China decreased slightly [6]. - **Trend and Suggestions**: PX has strong cost support, and long - spread positions can be held. PTA is in a high - level oscillation market, and long - spread operations can be maintained. MEG has a medium - term weak trend, and short - spread positions can be held [9][10]. Rubber - **Fundamental Data**: Rubber futures prices rose, trading volume and open interest increased, and the net short position of the top 20 members decreased. Spot - futures spreads and some variety spreads changed [11]. - **Industry News**: As of January 4, 2026, natural rubber inventories in Qingdao increased, and the production of some enterprises was in the recovery stage after the "New Year's Day" holiday [12][13]. - **Trend**: Rubber is in an oscillating operation [11]. Synthetic Rubber - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices of synthetic rubber rose, trading volume decreased, and open interest decreased. The prices of butadiene and some synthetic rubber products increased, while the profit of butadiene rubber decreased [14]. - **Industry News**: As of December 31, 2025, domestic butadiene rubber inventories decreased; butadiene inventories in East China ports increased. Short - term geopolitical conflicts may lead to a short - term strong trend in butadiene and butadiene rubber [15][16]. - **Trend**: The short - term central shift of synthetic rubber is upward [14]. LLDPE - **Fundamental Data**: LLDPE futures prices declined, the 05 - contract basis strengthened, and spot prices in North, East, and South China increased [17]. - **Market Situation**: The spot market had positive feedback in the short term, and inventory was transferred to the middle stream. The raw material price of crude oil rebounded, and the profit of PE ethylene and ethane processes was compressed. There is medium - term supply - demand pressure [17][18]. - **Trend**: LLDPE is in a neutral trend [18]. PP - **Fundamental Data**: PP futures prices declined, the 05 - contract basis strengthened, and spot prices in North, East, and South China increased [19]. - **Market Situation**: The cost of crude oil and propane is strong, the supply - demand game of existing capacity intensifies, and the demand is weak. It is expected to continue the weak trend, and attention should be paid to the marginal changes of PDH devices [19][20]. - **Trend**: PP is in a neutral trend [20]. Caustic Soda - **Fundamental Data**: The 03 - contract futures price of caustic soda and the spot price of 32% caustic soda in Shandong are provided, and the basis is - 8 [21]. - **Market Situation**: After the New Year's Day, the caustic soda contract prices fell due to delivery factors, but the short - term decline based on delivery factors is limited. The fundamentals show a pattern of high production and high inventory, and the demand is weak [23]. - **Trend**: It is not advisable to chase short positions in caustic soda [21][23]. Pulp - **Fundamental Data**: Pulp futures prices were relatively stable, trading volume decreased, and open interest increased. Spot prices of some pulp varieties were stable, and spreads changed slightly [28]. - **Industry News**: Spot prices were stable, port inventories were in a cumulative trend, and downstream demand was weak [29]. - **Trend**: Pulp is in a wide - range oscillating market [26]. Glass - **Fundamental Data**: Glass futures prices declined, the 05 - contract basis strengthened slightly, and spot prices in Shahe, Hubei, and Zhejiang were stable [32]. - **Market Situation**: Domestic float glass prices were generally stable, and the sales of most regional enterprises were average during the holiday [32]. - **Trend**: Glass is in a neutral trend [32]. Methanol - **Fundamental Data**: Methanol futures prices declined slightly, the basis strengthened, and spot prices in some regions changed [35]. - **Market Situation**: The spot price index of methanol decreased, port inventories were at a high level but were expected to improve. Geopolitical factors and supply expectations led to a short - term strong trend, and there is a pressure level at 2300 - 2350 yuan/ton [37][38]. - **Trend**: Methanol is expected to be short - term strong [38]. Urea - **Fundamental Data**: Urea futures prices rose, trading volume increased significantly, and open interest increased. Spot prices of some urea factories increased slightly, and inventories decreased [40][41]. - **Industry News**: As of December 31, 2025, domestic urea enterprise inventories decreased. The spot trading was active, and the medium - term central shift of urea was upward [41]. - **Trend**: The central shift of urea is upward [39][42]. Styrene - **Fundamental Data**: Styrene futures prices declined, and spreads and inventories changed [43]. - **Market Situation**: The current valuation is high, and there are opportunities to short at high levels. The medium - term drive is weak, and there is pressure in the first quarter [44][46]. - **Trend**: Styrene is in a short - term oscillating market [43]. Soda Ash - **Fundamental Data**: Soda ash futures prices declined, the 05 - contract basis strengthened, and spot prices in North, East, and Central China decreased [49]. - **Market Situation**: The domestic soda ash market was weak, supply increased, and demand was average [49]. - **Trend**: Soda ash is in a neutral trend [50]. LPG and Propylene - **Fundamental Data**: LPG and propylene futures prices had different changes, trading volume and open interest changed, and spreads and industry data such as PDH and MTBE operating rates were provided [54]. - **Market Situation**: The price of 2 - month CP paper goods for LPG decreased, and there are many domestic PDH and LPG plant maintenance plans. Propylene has limited upward and downward drivers, and the spot trend is stable [59][60]. - **Trend**: LPG and propylene are in a neutral trend [58]. PVC - **Fundamental Data**: PVC futures prices and spot prices, basis, and spreads are provided [63]. - **Market Situation**: The PVC spot market was in a weak - oscillating state, supply was expected to increase, and demand was weak. The market has a high - production and high - inventory structure, and the probability of large - scale production reduction is expected to increase after the 03 - contract [63]. - **Trend**: PVC is short - term strong and medium - term oscillating [62]. Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Fundamental Data**: Fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil futures prices declined, trading volume and open interest changed, and spot prices in different regions decreased [67]. - **Trend**: The upward trend of fuel oil has paused, and there is support below; low - sulfur fuel oil is in a narrow - range oscillating market [67]. Container Freight Index (European Line) - **Fundamental Data**: The futures prices of the container freight index (European line) increased, trading volume and open interest increased, and freight rate indices and current freight rates changed [69]. - **Market Situation**: The index showed an oscillating and strong trend, mainly driven by the price increase of MSC. The 1 - month shipping capacity was relatively stable, and the 2 - month shipping capacity may be affected by the Spring Festival. Attention should be paid to the opening of shipping spaces and pricing strategies [76][77][78]. - **Trend**: The container freight index (European line) is in a neutral trend [81]. Short - Fiber and Bottle - Chip - **Fundamental Data**: Short - fiber and bottle - chip futures prices declined, trading volume and open interest changed, and spot prices decreased [82]. - **Market Situation**: Short - fiber futures prices oscillated and declined, and the sales of direct - spun polyester staple fibers were differentiated. The prices of bottle - chip factories decreased, and the market transaction was okay [82][83]. - **Trend**: Short - fiber and bottle - chip are in a short - term oscillating market [82][83]. Offset Printing Paper - **Fundamental Data**: The prices of offset printing paper in Shandong and Guangdong markets were stable, and the cost and profit of paper were provided [85]. - **Industry News**: The prices of high - white and natural - white offset printing paper in Shandong and Guangdong markets were stable, the demand was weak, and the trading was general [86][88]. - **Trend**: It is advisable to wait and see for offset printing paper [85]. Pure Benzene - **Fundamental Data**: Pure benzene futures prices declined, port inventories increased, and spreads and inventories of related products changed [89]. - **News**: As of January 5, 2026, pure benzene port inventories in Jiangsu and China increased, and the price of Shandong pure benzene decreased [90]. - **Trend**: Pure benzene is in a short - term oscillating market [89].

2026年01月06日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-黑色系列 观点与策略 | 铁矿石：高位反复 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢：原料冬储和复产预期叠加，钢厂利润预计压缩 | 3 | | 热轧卷板：原料冬储和复产预期叠加，钢厂利润预计压缩 | 3 | | 硅铁：结算电价下移，价格偏弱震荡 | 5 | | 锰硅：节后询价情绪浓厚，等待钢招落地 | 5 | | 焦炭：矛盾积累，震荡偏弱 | 7 | | 焦煤：矛盾积累，震荡偏弱 | 7 | | 原木：低位震荡 | 9 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 所 商 品 研 究 2026 年 1 月 6 日 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 【基本面跟踪】 铁矿石基本面数据 | | | | 昨日收盘价(元/吨) | 涨跌(元/吨) | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货 | 12605 | | 797.0 | 7.5 | 0. 95% | | | | | | 昨日持仓(手) | 持仓变动(手) | | | | | | 618. 77 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No investment ratings for the industry are provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Nickel is expected to experience wide - range fluctuations, with a battle between the burden of real - world pressure and the narrative of cycle transformation [2][4]. - Stainless steel is dragged down by the real - world fundamentals, and the trading on the disk mainly focuses on Indonesia's policies [2][4]. - The price of lithium carbonate is expected to shift upwards due to concerns about supply contraction and positive demand expectations [2][8]. - Industrial silicon shows a weak fundamental pattern [2]. - Polysilicon will oscillate at a high level, and investors should pay attention to the impact of news [2][11]. 3. Summaries according to Related Catalogs Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 134,100 yuan, and the trading volume was 366,893 lots. For the stainless - steel main contract, the closing price was 13,075 yuan, and the trading volume was 175,949 lots. There were also detailed data on various nickel - related products such as 1 imported nickel, Russian nickel premium, etc. [4] - **Macro and Industry News**: Indonesia has suspended issuing new smelting licenses through the OSS platform, and plans to revise the benchmark price formula for nickel ore commodities. The 2026 nickel ore production target is to be significantly reduced. There are also issues such as steel product export license management in China and Indonesian mining companies' illegal occupation of forest land [4][5][7] - **Trend Intensity**: Both nickel and stainless - steel trend intensities are 0, indicating a neutral outlook [7] Lithium Carbonate - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the 2601 contract was 127,000 yuan, and the trading volume was 2,806 lots. There were also data on the 2605 contract, basis, raw materials, lithium salts, and related products in the lithium - battery industry chain [8] - **Macro and Industry News**: The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price increased. The State Council issued a solid - waste management plan, and Tianci Materials announced a production - line maintenance plan [9][10] - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of lithium carbonate is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [10] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Fundamental Data**: For the industrial silicon Si2605 contract, the closing price was 8,730 yuan/ton, and the trading volume was 271,132 lots. For the polysilicon PS2605 contract, the closing price was 58,645 yuan/ton, and the trading volume was 17,155 lots. There were also data on futures market spreads, basis, inventory, raw material costs, etc. [11] - **Macro and Industry News**: Anhui Hefei issued a notice to encourage distributed photovoltaic power generation projects to improve local consumption capacity [12] - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensities of both industrial silicon and polysilicon are - 1, indicating a slightly bearish outlook [13]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Hold short positions in crude oil and pay attention to upside risks such as the Iran issue. The trend strength of crude oil is -1, indicating a bearish view [1][12]. Core View - The report analyzes the crude oil arbitrage situation in multiple regions, including the Gulf of Mexico, the Atlantic, Northwest Europe, the Mediterranean, and Asia, and also provides key market news related to the crude oil market. Summary by Directory 1. Mexican Gulf Crude Oil Arbitrage - The arbitrage status of various alternative crude oils in refinery configurations is mostly closed, with negative spreads. For example, Arab Extra Light in cracking configuration has a spread of -3.49, and Agbami in cracking configuration has a spread of -6.13 [1]. 2. Atlantic Crude Oil Arbitrage - Forties has a slight positive incentive with a spread of 0.48, and Arab Extra Light has a medium spread of 2.26 driven by the increase in refinery value. Cabinda's arbitrage window is closed with a spread of -2.79, and Urals is affected by geopolitics [2]. 3. Northwest European Crude Oil Arbitrage - In the NWE region, the arbitrage between Forties and Azeri Light is closed with a negative price difference of -1.02, while the arbitrage between Forties and Bonny Light is open with a slight positive incentive of 0.6. In the Mediterranean, the arbitrage between Urals and Azeri Light and Bonny Light is closed due to negative freight and structure factors [4]. 4. Mediterranean Crude Oil Arbitrage - The arbitrage of various crude oil varieties such as Saharan Blend, Azeri Light, Bonny Light, and Ekofisk is closed, with deep negative spreads, indicating difficult arbitrage opportunities [5]. 5. Asian Crude Oil Arbitrage - In Singapore, the arbitrage between Tapis and Dubai is closed with a spread of -0.99, while the arbitrage between Tapis and Bonny Light is open with a spread of 0.57. In Japan, the arbitrage between ESPO and Bonny Light is closed with a spread of -11.36, and the arbitrage between Dubai and Maya is open with a spread of 0.81. In China, the arbitrage between Dubai and Mars is open with a spread of 0.64 [5]. 6. Key Market News - Israel's Prime Minister Netanyahu conveyed through Putin that Israel currently has no intention to further deteriorate the situation or attack Iran, but also stated that any Iranian attack will bring "serious consequences" [6][7]. - The US plans to intercept an oil tanker carrying Venezuelan oil, and Rodriguez became the acting president of Venezuela. Maduro's son expressed "unconditional support" for Rodriguez [8]. - Saudi Arabia set the official selling price (OSP) of Arab Light crude oil for Asia in February at a premium of $0.3 per barrel to the Oman/Dubai average [8]. - US Energy Secretary Wright plans to meet with oil industry leaders this week to discuss the "restart" of the Venezuelan energy sector [8]. - A Chevron-chartered oil tanker loaded with Venezuelan crude has left Venezuelan waters and is heading to the US Gulf Coast [11].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Asia is the core recipient region for global LPG exports, with supply mainly from the Middle East and the United States, and imports concentrated in a few key Asian countries/regions. The global LPG exports to Asia feature high concentration at the export - end, a trend towards Asia - bound flow, and a situation where the import - end is dominated by a few countries with distinct demand attributes [2][7][9]. - In 2026, the incremental supply of Asian propane is relatively clear, but the time and rhythm of capacity realization need attention. The demand shows significant regional marginal differentiation. The annual supply - demand pattern of Asian propane is expected to evolve from tight in the first half to loose in the second half [2][3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Asian Propane Trade Flows - Global LPG supply to Asia is mainly from the Middle East and the United States. As of 2025, the Middle East's propane export to Asia exceeded 25 million tons/year, with the UAE, Iran, and Qatar being major exporters. The US exports over 30 million tons of propane to Asia annually, affecting the regional price and supply - demand balance. Other regions like Canada, Australia, and West Africa play a supplementary role [7]. - Asian propane imports are concentrated in China, India, Japan, South Korea, and Southeast Asia. China's imports account for nearly 40%, with a "chemical - dominated" demand structure. India accounts for about 20%, with demand mainly for residential combustion. Japan focuses on combustion - related demand, South Korea on chemical device operations, and Southeast Asia has seen incremental demand due to large - scale chemical device investments [9]. 3.2 Supply: Incremental Supply is Relatively Clear, Focus on Actual Capacity Release 3.2.1 Middle East: Monitor OPEC+ Production Policy and New Capacity Release - In 2025, Middle Eastern LPG exports reached 47.66 million tons, with a year - on - year growth of about 4.0%. The UAE, Qatar, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and Kuwait are major exporters. Over 95% of Middle Eastern LPG is shipped to Asia, with 45% going to India and 38% to China [10][14]. - In 2026, new LPG capacity projects are concentrated in Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the UAE, and Iran. In the first half, the focus is on whether UAE projects can be realized, with an expected monthly incremental supply of about 0.5 VLGCs if successful. In the second half, the key lies in Saudi Arabia and Qatar. If projects like Jafurah, Tanajib, and North Field East are launched as planned, it will significantly increase the Middle East's LPG export capacity, with a potential monthly incremental supply of 2 - 4 VLGCs [17]. - Iran's LPG exports are expected to remain flat in 2026, as the country can meet the demand of new PDH plants by increasing domestic production [18]. 3.2.2 United States: Moderate Production Growth and Significantly Improved Export Capacity - From January to November 2025, US LPG exports were 62.71 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.1%. China's imports from the US decreased, while India and Southeast Asia increased their purchases. European imports also rose [19]. - In 2026, the US propane export capacity is expected to support an additional monthly supply of about 3 - 4 VLGCs. However, US propane production growth is expected to slow down, with an expected annual increase of about 750,000 tons and a year - on - year growth rate dropping to about 1%. But due to high inventory levels, production will not significantly limit exports in the short term [23][24]. 3.3 Demand: Regional Marginal Factors Differ, and Pay Attention to the Realization Rhythm of Chemical - End Impact in 2026 3.3.1 China: Dominated by Chemical Use, PDH Determines Marginal Changes - In 2025, China's propane imports were about 25 - 26 million tons. The demand is mainly for chemical use, with PDH accounting for about 81%, cracking for about 15%, and combustion for about 4% [28]. - By the end of 2025, China's PDH total capacity was close to 25 million tons/year, with a new - capacity growth rate of 11%. In 2026, the new - capacity growth rate will slow down to 5%. PDH device profits are expected to recover, and the average operating rate is expected to rise, driving an annual propane demand increase of about 1.5 - 2 million tons [31][37]. - In 2025, the demand for propane in domestic cracking devices decreased. In 2026, this weak demand is expected to continue [38][40]. - China's propane combustion demand is mainly in South China, with a small scale and limited impact on overall imports [42]. 3.3.2 Japan: Dominated by Combustion Use, Import Demand Shows Seasonal Fluctuations - In 2025, Japan's propane imports were about 8.7 million tons, a year - on - year increase of about 2.4%. The demand is mainly for combustion, and the import volume has seasonal characteristics. In 2026, Japan's import dependence will remain high, and the import volume is expected to remain stable at a high level [45][48]. 3.3.3 South Korea: Dominated by Chemical Use, Cracking Determines Import Rhythm - In 2025, South Korea's domestic propane production was about 550,000 tons, and imports were about 6.4 million tons. Propane demand is mainly for chemical and industrial use. In 2026, South Korea's propane import demand is mainly restricted by the operation of chemical devices [50][53][55]. 3.3.4 India and Southeast Asia - In 2025, India's propane imports increased by about 8% year - on - year. In 2026, the growth of combustion demand will slow down, and chemical demand will increase due to new PDH and ethylene cracking devices [56]. - In 2025, Southeast Asia's propane demand increased due to the commissioning of new cracking devices. In 2026, the propane chemical demand in Vietnam's Long Son device may decrease, but the time is uncertain [56]. 3.4 2026 Asian Propane Balance Sheet - In 2026, the supply - demand pattern of Asian propane will evolve from tight in the first half to loose in the second half. In the first quarter, the supply is still tight but shows marginal improvement. The demand is supported by combustion in Japan, South Korea, and India, while the chemical - end demand is under pressure. In the second quarter, the market is in a transition phase. In the second half of the year, the supply will increase as new capacity is released, and the demand growth will slow down, leading to a looser supply - demand pattern [58].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - PX is expected to remain in a high - level volatile market supported by cost, and it is recommended to hold long spreads. PTA is also in a high - level volatile market driven by cost, and long spreads operation should be maintained. MEG has limited upside space and faces medium - term pressure, and short spreads operation is advised [1][6][7][8] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Data - **Futures Prices**: The closing prices of PX, PTA, MEG, PF, and SC futures on the previous day were 7260, 5110, 3803, 6514, and 432.2 respectively, with daily changes of - 56, - 34, - 44, - 50, and - 3.9, and daily change rates of - 0.77%, - 0.66%, - 1.14%, - 0.76%, and - 0.89% [2] - **Spot Prices**: The previous day's spot prices of PX CFR China, PTA in East China, MEG, naphtha MOPJ, and Dated Brent were 894 dollars/ton, 5097 yuan/ton, 3678, 530.12 dollars/ton, and 60.98 dollars/barrel respectively [2] - **Spot Processing Fees**: The previous day's PX - naphtha spread, PTA processing fee, short - fiber processing fee, bottle - chip processing fee, and MOPJ naphtha - Dubai crude spread were 363.88, 361.63, 120.64, 43.68, and - 4.34 respectively [2] 3.2 Market Dynamics - **PX**: As of January 4, the domestic PX plant operating rate was 90.4%, and the Asian PX operating rate was 80.9% [2] - **PTA**: The PTA load was 78.1%. Dushan Energy's 250 - million - ton plant restarted, Zhongtai's 120 - million - ton plant restarted at a low load, and Weilian Chemical's 250 - million - ton plant increased its load [3] - **MEG**: A 200,000 - ton/year syngas - to - ethylene glycol plant in Henan stopped for catalyst replacement at the end of December 2025, with an expected duration of about 2 weeks. A 615,000 - ton/year MEG plant in Kuwait plans to stop for maintenance on January 9, with an expected maintenance duration of about one month. As of January 4, the overall operating load of ethylene glycol in mainland China was 73.73% (a 1.58% increase from the previous period), and the operating load of oxalic acid catalytic hydrogenation (syngas) to ethylene glycol was 75.86% (a 0.51% decrease from the previous period) [3][4] - **Polyester**: The operating load of large domestic polyester industrial yarn manufacturers remained basically stable, with the overall theoretical operating load of domestic polyester industrial yarn at around 75% (starting from January 2026, the production capacity base of polyester industrial yarn is 3.28 million tons). As of Sunday, the polyester load in mainland China was around 90.8%. The sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were weak, with an average sales rate of less than 40% as of 4 pm. The sales of direct - spun polyester staple fiber were highly differentiated, with an average sales rate of 57% as of 3 pm [4] 3.3 Terminal Market in Jiangsu and Zhejiang - **Operating Rates**: The comprehensive operating rate of texturing in Jiangsu and Zhejiang dropped to 74%, the comprehensive operating rate of looms dropped to 59%, and the comprehensive operating rate of dyeing remained at 69% [5] - **Raw Material Stockpiling**: Terminal factories mainly consumed raw material stocks this week, and raw material purchases were mainly for new orders. The raw material purchase volumes of terminal factories varied widely. Currently, the stockpiles of production factories are concentrated between 1 - 3 weeks, and some with more stockpiles still have 1 - 2 months' worth [5] - **Orders and Prices**: New orders in the weaving sector remained weak, with some foreign trade and spring - summer new orders being slightly followed up. The inventory of grey fabric continued to accumulate. The prices of conventional grey fabric varieties declined locally, and the nominal cash - flow losses of grey fabric widened [5] 3.4 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of PX and PTA is 1, while that of MEG is 0 [6] 3.5 Views and Suggestions - **PX**: With strong cost support, long spreads should be held. After the US air - strike on Venezuela on January 3, oil prices are expected to rise in the short - term, supporting the valuation of PX. The 1 - million - ton plant of Fujia Dahua restarted, and India's GAIL purchased Middle - East PX supplies for its planned start - up in March - April. The domestic PX operating rate is 88%. For domestic PTA plants, the processing fee of the 05 contract on the futures market has risen to over 300 yuan/ton. The 2.5 - million - ton plant of Xin Fengming Phase 1 and the 1.2 - million - ton plant of Zhongtai Chemical restarted, and the operating rate is expected to recover. The overall operating rate is expected to remain at around 78% [6] - **PTA**: In a cost - driven market, the bullish pattern is difficult to disprove for now, and long spreads operation should be maintained. The situation of PTA domestic plants is the same as that mentioned for PX. The profits of polyester filament factories have been declining, leading to a decrease in operating enthusiasm, but the current decline in polyester operating rate is not significant. Coupled with the large - scale export of PTA to India in December, the PTA segment is still in a state of continuous inventory reduction [6][7] - **MEG**: Although it is affected by the rising valuation of oil and coal prices in the short - term, its medium - term trend remains weak, and short spreads operation is recommended. The domestic ethylene glycol supply remains at a high level of 73.73%. The 200,000 - ton plant of Guangxi Huayi restarted. Overseas, plants in Taiwan, China (720,000 tons), Kuwait (530,000 tons), and Iran (400,000 tons) are under maintenance. The import volume of ethylene glycol is expected to decline marginally in January - February. The operating rate of polyester plants is 90.8%, and the rigid demand for ethylene glycol is decreasing. The polyester load is expected to drop from 89% in January to 84% in February [8]

2026年01月05日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-能源化工 观点与策略 | 对二甲苯：成本支撑，高位震荡市 | 2 | | --- | --- | | PTA：成本支撑，高位震荡市 | 2 | | MEG：上方空间有限，中期仍有压力 | 2 | | 橡胶：震荡略偏强20260105 | 5 | | 合成橡胶:短期中枢上移，中期步入震荡 | 7 | | LLDPE：上游库存转移，基差持稳 | 9 | | PP：1月多套PDH计划检修，盘面企稳震荡 | 10 | | 烧碱：关注1月交割压力 | 11 | | 纸浆：宽幅震荡20260105 | 12 | | 玻璃：原片价格平稳 | 14 | | 甲醇：短期偏强 | 15 | | 尿素：震荡中枢上移 | 17 | | 苯乙烯：短期震荡 | 19 | | 纯碱：现货市场变化不大 | 21 | | LPG：地缘因素扰动成本，关注下行驱动兑现 | 22 | | 丙烯：上下驱动有限，现货走势企稳 | 22 | | PVC：震荡为主 | 25 | | 燃料油：地缘冲突爆发，短期将继续上行 | 26 | | 低硫燃料油：大概率出现跟涨，外盘现货高低硫价差暂时平稳 | 26 | ...

商 品 研 究 2026 年 01 月 05 日 纸浆：宽幅震荡 20260105 | | | 表 1：基本面数据 | 项目 | | 项目名称 | 昨日数据 | 前日数据 | 变动幅度 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 纸浆主力 | 日盘收盘价(元/吨) | 5.532 | 5. 568 | -36 | | | | 夜盘收盘价(元/吨) | - | 5, 554 | | | | | 成交量(手) | 258. 678 | 301. 862 | -43. 184 | | | (05合约) | 持仓量 (手) | 206. 636 | 218, 046 | -11. 410 | | | | 仓单数量(吨) | 104. 487 | 103.990 | +497 | | | | 前20名会员净持仓(手) | -23, 481 | -23, 560 | +79 | | 价差数据 | 基差 | 银星-期货主力 | ୧୫ | 32 | +36 | | | | 金鱼-期货主力(非标) | -832 | -898 | +66 | | | 月差 | SP03-SP ...

2026 年 1 月 5 日 股指期货将偏强震荡 铂、钯、白银、碳酸锂期货将震荡偏 强 镍期货将偏强震荡 豆粕期货将偏弱震荡 陶金峰 期货投资咨询从业资格号：Z0000372 邮箱：taojinfeng@gtht.com 【正文】 【声明】 本报告的观点和信息仅供风险承受能力合适的投资者参考。本报告难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不 便，敬请谅解。若您并非风险承受能力合适的投资者，请勿阅读、订阅或接收任何相关信息。本报告不构 成具体业务或产品的推介，亦不应被视为相应金融衍生品的投资建议。请您根据自身的风险承受能力自行 作出投资决定并自主承担投资风险，不应凭借本内容进行具体操作。 【期货行情前瞻要点】 通过宏观基本面分析和黄金分割线、水平线、日均线等技术面分析，预期今日期货主力合约行情走势大概率如 下： | 期 货 | 品 | 主力合 | 趋势 | 阻力位 | 支撑位 | 重点备注 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 种 | | 约 | | | | | | 股指 | | IF2603 | 偏强震 | 4646 和 4667 点 | 4600 和 4583 ...