商 品 研 究 2025 年 09 月 17 日 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 豆粕：贸易乐观情绪，低位震荡 豆一：震荡 吴光静 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011992 wuguangjing@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 豆粕/豆一基本面数据 | | | 收盘价 （日盘） | 涨 跌 | 收盘价 （夜盘） | 涨 跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | DCE豆一2511 （元/吨） | 3924 | -18（-0.46%） | 3930 | -4（-0.10%） | | 期 货 | DCE豆粕2601 （元/吨） | 3041 | -10（-0.33%） | 3033 | -13（-0.43%） | | | CBOT大豆11 （美分/蒲） | 1049 | +5.75（+0.55%） | | | | | CBOT豆粕12 （美元/短吨） | 286.1 | +0.2 （+0.07%） | | n a | | | | | 豆粕 （43%） | | | | | | 3020～3040， | 较昨-40至持平； 9月M2601-40， | 持平； | ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Ratings - Aluminum: Range-bound oscillations [1] - Alumina: Oscillating at the bottom [1] - Cast aluminum alloy: Following the trend of electrolytic aluminum [1] 2. Core Views - The report updates the fundamental data of aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy, including futures and spot market prices, trading volumes, positions, spreads, and inventory levels [1]. - The market trends of aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy are analyzed, with aluminum expected to range - bound, alumina to oscillate at the bottom, and cast aluminum alloy to follow electrolytic aluminum [1]. - The Fed's interest - rate decision is in a "four - way battle" situation, and the strong growth of US retail sales in August may influence the Fed's decision [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Aluminum**: The closing price of the SHFE aluminum main contract was 20,975 yuan, down 45 yuan from the previous day; the LME aluminum 3M closing price was 2,712 US dollars, up 8 US dollars. Trading volume and open interest showed different changes compared with previous periods [1]. - **Alumina**: The closing price of the SHFE alumina main contract was 2,979 yuan, up 44 yuan. Trading volume increased significantly, while open interest decreased slightly [1]. - **Aluminum alloy**: The closing price of the aluminum alloy main contract was 20,480 yuan, down 65 yuan. Trading volume and open interest also had corresponding changes [1]. Spot Market - **Aluminum**: The electrolytic aluminum enterprise profit was 4,562.01 yuan, up 19.25 yuan. Domestic aluminum ingot social inventory was 629,000 tons, unchanged from the previous day [1]. - **Alumina**: The domestic average price of alumina was 3,083 yuan, down 11 yuan. The profit of Shanxi alumina enterprises was 28 yuan, down 10 yuan [1]. - **Aluminum alloy**: The theoretical profit of ADC12 was 170 yuan, up 8 yuan. The three - place inventory totaled 48,620 tons, up 102 tons [1]. Other Information - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy is all 0, indicating a neutral trend [3]. - **US Economic News**: The Fed's interest - rate decision has a "four - way battle" situation. US retail sales in August increased by 0.6% month - on - month, with strong consumer spending potentially influencing the Fed's decision [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Through macro - fundamental and technical analysis, the report forecasts the trend of various futures on September 17, 2025, including股指期货,国债 futures, precious metal futures, base metal futures, energy futures, and agricultural product futures [2]. - The report also provides macro - news and transaction tips, as well as information on commodity futures from September 16, 2025 [7][10]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Macro Information and Transaction Tips - Trump said he would talk with Chinese leaders, and the Chinese Foreign Ministry had no specific information to offer [7]. - Premier Li Qiang conducted research in Gansu and Qinghai, emphasizing innovation - driven and green development [7]. - Nine departments including the Ministry of Commerce issued policies to expand service consumption, proposing 19 measures in five aspects [7]. - PBOC Governor Pan Gongsheng pointed out the evolution trend of the international monetary system [7]. - The cancellation of the "restriction on overseas individuals' home - purchase in China" was a misinterpretation [8]. - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs introduced the high - quality development of agriculture and rural areas, and re - emphasized the policy on rural housing and homestead [8]. - The US Senate approved Milan's nomination as a Fed governor, and the Fed's Cook was allowed to stay in office [8]. - US Treasury Secretary Baisent mentioned the market's expectation of Fed rate cuts [9]. - The US considered imposing tariffs on more steel, aluminum, and auto parts [9]. - The US House Republicans proposed a temporary spending bill, which might lead to bipartisan disputes [9]. - US retail sales and manufacturing output showed positive growth in August [9]. 3.2 Commodity Futures Information - On September 16, COMEX gold futures rose 0.23% to $3727.5/oz, and silver futures fell 0.19% to $42.88/oz [10]. - On September 16, US oil rose 1.97% to $64.55/bbl, and Brent crude rose 1.56% to $68.49/bbl [11]. - On September 16, most LME base metals closed higher, except for copper [11]. - OPEC + will discuss production capacity this week [11]. - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar rose 65 points, and the RMB central parity rate was raised by 29 points [11]. - The US dollar index fell 0.73% on September 16, and most non - US currencies rose [12]. 3.3 Futures Market Analysis and Forecast 3.3.1 Stock Index Futures - On September 16, IF2509, IH2509, and IC2509 had different trends, with some facing downward pressure and some rebounding [12][13]. - On September 16, IM2509 rose, with short - term upward momentum [14]. - In September 2025, IF, IH, IC, and IM are expected to have wide - range oscillations [16][17]. - On September 17, stock index futures are expected to have strong - side oscillations [2]. 3.3.2 Treasury Futures - On September 16, the ten - year T2512 rose, and most treasury futures closed higher [34]. - On September 16, the central bank conducted 2870 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net injection of 400 billion yuan [35]. - The short - end Shibor rates rose on September 16 [35]. - On September 16, the issuance of financial bonds by agricultural and state - owned banks had different yields and multiples [35]. - In September 2025, fiscal policy still has room for action [36]. - On September 17, T2512 and TL2512 are expected to have wide - range oscillations [2]. 3.3.3 Precious Metal Futures - On September 16, the new gold futures contract AU2512 set a new high since listing, with strong upward momentum [40]. - In September 2025, the gold futures continuous contract is expected to have strong - side oscillations and set a new high [43]. - On September 17, AU2512 is expected to have strong - side oscillations and set a new high [43]. - On September 16, the silver futures contract AG2512 set a new high since listing, with an upward trend [51]. - In September 2025, the silver futures continuous contract is expected to have strong - side oscillations and set a new high [51]. - On September 17, AG2512 is expected to have wide - range oscillations [52]. 3.3.4 Base Metal Futures - On September 16, the copper futures contract CU2510 had a slight decline, with short - term upward momentum weakening [56]. - In September 2025, the copper futures continuous contract is expected to have strong - side wide - range oscillations [56]. - On September 17, CU2511 is expected to oscillate and consolidate [56]. - On September 16, the aluminum futures contract AL2511 had a slight decline, with downward pressure increasing [62]. - In September 2025, the aluminum futures continuous contract is expected to have strong - side wide - range oscillations [63]. - On September 17, AL2511 is expected to oscillate and consolidate [63]. - On September 16, the alumina futures contract AO2601 rose, with short - term upward momentum [67]. - In September 2025, the alumina futures continuous contract is expected to have weak - side wide - range oscillations [67]. - On September 17, AO2601 is expected to have weak - side oscillations [67]. 3.3.5 Energy Futures - On September 16, the new crude oil futures contract SC2511 rose, with short - term upward momentum [102]. - In September 2025, the crude oil futures continuous contract is expected to have weak - side wide - range oscillations [102]. - On September 17, SC2511 is expected to have strong - side oscillations [102]. 3.3.6 Agricultural Product Futures - On September 16, the soybean meal futures contract M2601 had a slight decline, with short - term downward pressure [112]. - On September 17, M2601 is expected to have weak - side oscillations [112]. - On September 16, the soybean oil futures contract Y2601 rose, with short - term upward momentum [114]. - On September 17, Y2601 is expected to have strong - side oscillations [114]. - On September 16, the palm oil futures contract P2601 rose, with short - term upward momentum [117]. - On September 17, P2601 is expected to have strong - side oscillations [117].

Report Industry Investment Ratings The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. Instead, it gives individual ratings for different commodities: - **Short - term Rebound, Medium - term Weakness**: p - Xylene, PTA [2][8][9] - **1 - 5 Month Spread Reverse Arbitrage**: MEG [2][8][9] - **Wide - range Oscillation**: Rubber, PVC, Fuel Oil, Low - sulfur Fuel Oil, Short - fiber, Bottle - chip, Offset Printing Paper [2][11][80][83] - **Short - term Oscillation**: Synthetic Rubber [2][16] - **Oscillate with Oil, Narrow - range Operation**: Asphalt [2][19] - **Short - term Strong, Medium - term Oscillation**: LLDPE [2][33] - **Caution for Short - selling at Low Levels, Medium - term Oscillation**: PP [2][37] - **Interval Oscillation**: Methanol [2][56] - **Enter Oscillation Pattern**: Urea [2][61] - **Short - term Strong, Medium - term Weak**: Styrene [2][65] - **Little Change in Spot Market**: Soda Ash [2][67] - **Short - term Narrow - range Strong Oscillation**: LPG [2][72] - **Short - term High - level Weak Operation**: Propylene [2][73] - **10 Under Pressure, 12 and 02 Wide - range Oscillation**: Container Shipping Index (European Line) [2][85] Core Views The report analyzes the market trends of various energy and chemical commodities, taking into account factors such as supply and demand, policy, and cost. It provides short - term and medium - term trend forecasts and investment suggestions for each commodity, emphasizing the impact of terminal demand, supply changes, and policy implementation on commodity prices [8][9][10]. Summary by Commodity p - Xylene, PTA, MEG - **p - Xylene**: Short - term follows oil price rebound,中期单边趋势或仍偏弱. Domestic PX operating rate is 87.8% (+4.1%). 11 - 01 long - short spread is held, 1 - 5 reverse arbitrage. PXN compression position stops profit below 220 US dollars [8]. - **PTA**: Short - term follows oil price rebound,中期单边趋势 or still weak. 11 - 01 long - short spread is held, 1 - 5 reverse arbitrage. PTA processing fee on 01/05 contract rebounds short [9]. - **MEG**: Market focuses on anti - involution policy, coal price rebounds, short - term valuation recovers. 1 - 5 reverse arbitrage. Supply pressure emerges, polyester demand is expected to weaken in the fourth quarter [9][10]. Rubber - The rubber market shows wide - range oscillation. The trading volume and open interest increase, and the spot - futures basis and month - spread change. The inventory in Qingdao area decreases, and the production and sales of passenger cars and new energy vehicles increase, which has a certain impact on the demand for tires [11][12][14]. Synthetic Rubber - The synthetic rubber market shows short - term oscillation. The fundamentals face pressure from high supply, but there is support from macro - expectations such as the Fed's potential preventive interest rate cut and domestic anti - involution policies [16][17][18]. Asphalt - The asphalt market oscillates with oil in a narrow range. The weekly production decreases, and both factory and social inventories decline. The operating rate of refineries increases slightly [19][32]. LLDPE - The LLDPE market is short - term strong and medium - term oscillatory. The market price rises slightly, driven by macro - sentiment and the improvement of demand in the agricultural film industry. The supply pressure may be relieved in the short - term due to the maintenance of Zhenhai Refining and Chemical [33][34]. PP - The PP market requires caution for short - selling at low levels and is medium - term oscillatory. The short - term demand improves, but the cost is weak. The supply pressure will increase in the future, but there are positive factors such as holidays and potential Fed interest rate cuts [37][38]. Caustic Soda - The caustic soda market shows wide - range oscillation. The current upward driving force is insufficient, mainly due to the pressure on exports and the alumina market. However, it is affected by anti - involution and anti - deflation sentiment [41][42][43]. Pulp - The pulp market oscillates. The futures price rebounds, but the spot price has limited increase. The supply and demand are in a weak balance, and the inventory in ports is still at a high level [47][49][50]. Glass - The glass market has stable original - sheet prices. The futures price rises, and the spot price in some areas increases slightly. The production and sales in the main production areas are acceptable, but the sales in some regions are still average [52][53]. Methanol - The methanol market shows interval oscillation. The spot price index rises, with regional differences. The upper limit of the price is restricted by high imports and high inventory, while the lower limit is supported by the expectation of improved fundamentals and domestic anti - involution policies [56][59]. Urea - The urea market enters an oscillation pattern. The short - term price is affected by spot trading volume. The medium - term trend is under pressure, but there are uncertainties such as holidays and Fed policies [61][62][63]. Styrene - The styrene market is short - term strong and medium - term weak. The cost center moves down due to OPEC's potential production increase, and the short - term downward space for pure benzene and styrene expands [65][66]. Soda Ash - The soda ash market has little change in the spot market. The futures price rises, and the domestic market is stable with some low - price increases. The downstream demand is stable, and it is expected to oscillate and adjust in the short - term [67][69]. LPG, Propylene - **LPG**: Short - term narrow - range strong oscillation. The price and trading volume change, and there are differences in the price spreads of different regions [72][73]. - **Propylene**: Short - term high - level weak operation. The fundamentals face pressure from high supply, and the开工 rates of related industries decline [73]. PVC - The PVC market shows wide - range oscillation. The short - term is affected by anti - deflation and anti - involution factors, but the medium - term faces pressure from high production, high inventory, and weak domestic demand [80]. Fuel Oil, Low - sulfur Fuel Oil - **Fuel Oil**: Follows the rebound of crude oil and has a short - term adjustment trend. The futures price rises, and the spot price in some regions increases slightly [83]. - **Low - sulfur Fuel Oil**: Continues to rise, and the price spread between high - sulfur and low - sulfur in the overseas spot market increases slightly [83]. Container Shipping Index (European Line) - The 10 - contract of the container shipping index (European line) operates under pressure, while the 12 and 02 contracts oscillate widely. The trading volume and open interest change, and there are differences in the freight rates of different carriers [85].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - PX, PTA, and MEG are expected to have short - term rebounds but remain weak in the medium term. For PX and PTA, 11 - 01 positive spreads should be held, and 1 - 5 reverse spreads should be used. For MEG, 1 - 5 reverse spreads are recommended. PXN compression positions should be stopped for profit below 220 US dollars. The overall price increase of PX is restricted by poor terminal demand. The PTA processing fee is in a downward channel, and the polyester demand is expected to weaken in the fourth quarter, which is negative for PTA. The MEG supply pressure is gradually emerging, and the valuation is expected to decline in the long - term [1][5][6][8] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Dynamics - **PX**: On September 16, the Platts - assessed Asian paraxylene price dropped by 1.50 US dollars/ton. The PX production profit margins are mixed, with non - integrated producers having higher margins and integrated producers seeing shrinking margins. The PX - naphtha spread reached a low on September 15. The Chinese PTA and polyester markets are weak, and an increase in PTA inventory is inevitable. The naphtha price was stable at the end of the session, and PX prices declined on September 16 [2][3] - **PTA**: The PTA spot price rose to 4,610 yuan/ton, with a mainstream basis of 01 - 80, a monthly average price of 4,632.5 yuan/ton, and a monthly settlement price of 4,675.63 yuan/ton [3] - **MEG**: The MEG domestic market was consolidating at a low level with a weak basis. The planned arrival volume at major ports from September 15 - 21 is about 9.4 tons [4] - **Polyester**: On September 16, the sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were weak, with an average sales rate of about 40% by 3:45 pm. The sales of direct - spun polyester staple fibers were average, with an average sales rate of 64% by 3:00 pm [4] Trend Intensity - The trend intensities of PX, PTA, and MEG are all 0, indicating a neutral view [5] Views and Suggestions - **PX**: In the short - term, it will rebound following oil prices. After the terminal's last round of inventory replenishment at the end of September, it may remain weak in the medium - term. The domestic PX operating rate is 87.8% (+4.1%), and the PTA load is 76.8% (+4%). Attention should be paid to the commissioning of new PTA devices and the potential impact of device overhauls [5] - **PTA**: In the short - term, it will rebound following oil prices. After the terminal's inventory replenishment at the end of September, it may remain weak in the medium - term. The PTA processing fee is in a downward channel, and the polyester load is expected to reach a high of no more than 92% and then weaken in the fourth quarter [6] - **MEG**: The short - term valuation has recovered, but it may remain weak in the medium - term. The supply pressure is gradually emerging, and the polyester operating rate is 91.6% (+0.3%), with a high of no more than 92% and expected weakening demand in the fourth quarter [7][8]

Group 1: Report Core View - The lead price is fluctuating without an obvious driving force [1] Group 2: Industry Data Summary Futures Price - The closing price of the main Shanghai lead futures contract was 17,055 yuan/ton, down 0.61% from the previous day; the closing price of the LME lead 3M electronic disk was 2,001.5 dollars/ton, down 0.87% [1] Trading Volume - The trading volume of the main Shanghai lead futures contract was 54,978 lots, a decrease of 3,688 lots; the trading volume of LME lead was 5,516 lots, a decrease of 964 lots [1] Open Interest - The open interest of the main Shanghai lead futures contract was 45,095 lots, a decrease of 1,961 lots; the open interest of LME lead was 165,625 lots, a decrease of 277 lots [1] Premium and Discount - The premium of Shanghai 1 lead was 0 yuan/ton, an increase of 25 yuan/ton; the LME CASH - 3M premium was -48 dollars/ton, a decrease of 2.5 dollars/ton [1] Import Profit and Loss - The spot import profit and loss of lead ingots was -363.9 yuan/ton, a decrease of 23.07 yuan/ton; the import profit and loss of Shanghai lead continuous three was -472.56 yuan/ton, a decrease of 94.45 yuan/ton [1] Inventory - The inventory of Shanghai lead futures was 59,417 tons, unchanged; the LME lead inventory was 227,850 tons, an increase of 2,225 tons [1] Other Prices - The price of waste electric vehicle batteries was 9,975 yuan/ton, an increase of 25 yuan/ton; the price of recycled refined lead was 16,875 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan/ton [1] Other Data - The comprehensive profit and loss of recycled lead was -19 yuan/ton, a decrease of 67 yuan/ton; the LME lead cancelled warrants were 29,350 tons, a decrease of 3,400 tons [1] Group 3: News Summary - The US Treasury Secretary said that the Fed has been lagging in response, and the market is digesting the expectation of a 75 - basis - point interest rate cut from now to the end of the year [2] - US retail sales in August increased by 0.6% month - on - month, exceeding expectations for three consecutive months, and real retail sales have increased for 11 consecutive months [2] - The lead trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral view [2]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core View Both short - fiber and bottle - chip markets are expected to follow cost fluctuations in the short term, with a weakening trend [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Content Fundamental Tracking - **Short - fiber**: The prices of short - fiber contracts 2510, 2511, and 2512 increased by 16, 18, and 34 respectively compared to the previous day. The price differences PF10 - 11 and PF11 - 12 decreased by 2 and 16 respectively. The short - fiber basis decreased by 18. The short - fiber main contract's trading volume increased by 2925, and the open interest increased by 10978. The short - fiber spot price in East China remained unchanged at 6.470, and the sales - to - production ratio increased by 1% to 64% [1]. - **Bottle - chip**: The prices of bottle - chip contracts 2510, 2511, and 2512 increased by 14, 14, and 8 respectively compared to the previous day. The price difference PR10 - 11 remained unchanged, and PR11 - 12 increased by 6. The main contract's open interest decreased by 37, and the trading volume decreased by 3389. The bottle - chip spot price in East China increased by 20 to 5850, and the spot price in South China remained unchanged at 5890 [1]. Spot News - **Short - fiber**: The short - fiber futures followed the raw materials to rise and then fall. The factory's spot price remained stable, and the discounts for futures - cash and traders narrowed, with less trading volume. The mainstream negotiation range for semi - bright 1.4D was 6400 - 6700. As of 3:00 pm, the average sales - to - production ratio was 64% [1]. - **Bottle - chip**: The upstream polyester raw material futures rose and then fell. The polyester bottle - chip factory's quotes were mostly stable. The trading atmosphere in the polyester bottle - chip market was average. The orders from September to November were mostly traded at 5800 - 5920 yuan/ton ex - factory, with some slightly lower at around 5760 yuan/ton ex - factory and some slightly higher at 5940 - 5960 yuan/ton ex - factory [2]. Trend Intensity The trend intensity of short - fiber and bottle - chip on the reporting day's daytime main contract price fluctuations was 0, indicating a neutral trend. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report presents the latest data on the sugar market, including prices, spreads, and supply - demand situations both domestically and internationally, along with macro and industry news [1][2][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Price Data**: The raw sugar price is 16.55 cents per pound, down 0.12; the mainstream spot price is 5940 yuan per ton, unchanged; the futures main contract price is 5547 yuan per ton, down 2 [1] - **Spread Data**: The 15 - spread is 23 yuan per ton, unchanged; the 59 - spread is - 6 yuan per ton, up 1; the mainstream spot basis is 393 yuan per ton, up 2 [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - India's monsoon precipitation has strengthened again. Brazil's exports have declined, with 374 tons exported in August (down 5% year - on - year) and 359 tons in July (down 5% year - on - year). Conab has lowered Brazil's 25/26 sugar production forecast to 4450 tons from 4590 tons. China imported 74 tons of sugar in July, an increase of 32 tons [1] 3.3 Domestic Market - CAOC predicts that China's sugar production will be 1116 tons in the 24/25 season and 1120 tons in the 25/26 season, with consumption of 1580 tons and 1590 tons respectively, and imports of 500 tons in both seasons. As of May 31, 24/25 season production was 1116 tons (up 120 tons), sales were 811 tons (up 152 tons), and the sales rate was 72.7%. As of July 31, 24/25 season cumulative imports were 324 tons (down 34 tons). In the 25/26 season, the market expects a decline in Guangxi's sugar yield and an increase in production costs [2] 3.4 International Market - ISO forecasts a global sugar supply shortage of 23 tons in the 25/26 season and 488 tons in the 24/25 season. As of August 16, 25/26 season, Brazil's central - southern region had a 6.6 - percentage - point decline in cumulative sugarcane crushing, with 2289 tons of sugar produced (down 112 tons), and the MIX was 52.51% (up 3.37 percentage points). ISMA/NFCSF predicts India's 25/26 season sugar production to be 3490 tons (up 540 tons from 24/25). Thailand's 24/25 season production was 1008 tons (up 127 tons) [3] 3.5 Trend Intensity - The sugar trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [4]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The end - of - month and beginning - of - month significant reduction in supply by large - scale pig farms led to a rebound in spot prices as expected. However, the average weight of pigs is increasing again, the price difference between fat and standard pigs is weakening, and the overall supply increase in September is large. From September to October, the production capacity cycle and inventory cycle resonate, and market pressure is gradually emerging. It is expected that the spot price center will further decline, and the national average price will hit new lows. The enthusiasm for purchasing piglets has declined, and the price decline has accelerated, corresponding to a decrease in the cost of pigs to be slaughtered in March - May. Attention should be paid to the driving force of the downward shift of the price center in March and May. There is an expectation of further policy regulation for the July contract, which is mainly strong in the short - term. Stop - loss and take - profit should be noted. The short - term support level for the LH2511 contract is 12,500 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 13,500 yuan/ton [4] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Spot Prices**: The spot price in Henan is 13,230 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton year - on - year; in Sichuan, it is 12,950 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan/ton year - on - year; in Guangdong, it is 14,160 yuan/ton, down 180 yuan/ton year - on - year [2] - **Futures Prices**: The price of the Live Pig 2511 contract is 13,275 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton year - on - year; the Live Pig 2601 contract is 13,745 yuan/ton, up 55 yuan/ton year - on - year; the Live Pig 2603 contract is 13,045 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton year - on - year [2] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the Live Pig 2511 contract is 38,413 lots, an increase of 8,046 lots from the previous day, and the open interest is 81,062 lots, an increase of 2,009 lots from the previous day; the Live Pig 2601 contract has a trading volume of 14,187 lots, an increase of 1,557 lots, and an open interest of 54,865 lots, an increase of 765 lots; the Live Pig 2603 contract has a trading volume of 3,991 lots, a decrease of 516 lots, and an open interest of 38,157 lots, an increase of 915 lots [2] - **Price Spreads**: The basis of the Live Pig 2511 contract is - 45 yuan/ton, down 120 yuan/ton year - on - year; the basis of the Live Pig 2601 contract is - 515 yuan/ton, down 155 yuan/ton year - on - year; the basis of the Live Pig 2603 contract is 185 yuan/ton, down 85 yuan/ton year - on - year; the spread between the 11th and 1st contracts is - 470 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan/ton year - on - year; the spread between the 1st and 3rd contracts is 700 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan/ton year - on - year [2] 2. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity is - 1, with the range of values being integers in the [- 2,2] interval. The strength levels are classified as weak, relatively weak, neutral, relatively strong, and strong. - 2 represents the most bearish view, and 2 represents the most bullish view [3] 3. Market Logic - As described in the core view, including factors such as supply changes, price trends, and policy expectations [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating [1][2] 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term trend of pure benzene is volatile, and it will be weak in the fourth quarter [1] - The trend strength of pure benzene is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Content 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - In futures prices, BZ2603 was 6073, up 41 from the previous day; BZ2604 was 6055, up 29; BZ2605 was 6072, up 27. The spreads between different contracts also changed, such as BZ2603 - BZ2604 increasing by 12 to 18 [1] - The paper - cargo prices N + 1 and N + 2 both increased by 60, reaching 6005 and 6015 respectively [1] - Shandong pure benzene price was 6035, up 30 from the previous day. The difference between Shandong pure benzene price and hydrogenated benzene price increased by 30 to 180, while the difference with East China pure benzene price decreased by 30 to 45 [1] - Pure benzene inventory in East China ports decreased by 1 to 13.4, and styrene inventory in East China ports increased by 6760 to 133690 [1] 3.2 News - As of September 15, 2025, the commercial inventory of pure benzene in Jiangsu ports was 13.4 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.0 tons (6.94%) and a year - on - year increase of 8.4 tons (168.00%). From September 8 - 14, arrivals were about 1.8 tons and pick - ups were about 2.8 tons [2] - As of September 15, 2025, the inventory of styrene in Jiangsu ports was 15.9 tons, a decrease of 1.75 tons (- 9.92%) from the previous period. The commercial inventory was 7.8 tons, a decrease of 0.9 tons (- 10.34%) [2] - On September 15, the non - long - term contract trading volume of Shandong pure benzene was about 1700 tons, with a self - pick - up price range of 6000 - 6010 yuan/ton and an average price of 6005 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan/ton from the previous day [2] - The spot negotiation price of pure benzene in East China was 5910 - 5950 yuan/ton (average 5930, up 20). The September lower transaction price was 5910 - 5960 yuan/ton (average 5935, up 25), the October lower was 5920 - 5970 yuan/ton (average 5945, up 35), and the November lower was 5930 - 5980 yuan/ton (average 5955, up 30) [2]