Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating [1] 2. Core View of the Report - The demand for energy storage is strong, and lithium carbonate is oscillating [1] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market Data**: For the 2511 contract, the closing price was 73,640 yuan, with a change of 460 yuan compared to T - 1; the trading volume was 343,863 lots, a decrease of 156,404 lots from T - 1; the open interest was 294,624 lots, a decrease of 5,813 lots from T - 1. For the 2601 contract, the closing price was 73,800 yuan, up 460 yuan from T - 1; the trading volume was 73,016 lots, a decrease of 37,744 lots from T - 1; the open interest was 175,407 lots, an increase of 1,532 lots from T - 1 [1] - **Spot and Basis Data**: The spot - 2511 basis was - 490 yuan, a change of - 160 yuan from T - 1; the spot - 2601 basis was - 650 yuan, a change of - 160 yuan from T - 1; the 2511 - 2601 basis was - 160 yuan, with no change from T - 1 [1] - **Raw Material and Lithium Salt Data**: The price of spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 857 yuan, up 4 yuan from T - 1; the price of lithium mica (2.0% - 2.5%) was 1,815 yuan, with no change from T - 1. The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 73,150 yuan, up 300 yuan from T - 1; the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 70,900 yuan, up 300 yuan from T - 1 [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Lithium Carbonate Price**: The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 73,116 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 281 yuan/ton. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 73,150 yuan/ton, up 300 yuan/ton from the previous workday; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 70,900 yuan/ton, up 300 yuan/ton from the previous workday [2] - **Energy Storage Project Procurement**: In August 2025, 289 domestic energy storage projects were procured and landed, with a scale of 28GW/89GWh and a capacity year - on - year increase of 232%. From January to August 2025, the newly added procurement and landing scale of energy storage projects reached 302.8GWh, a year - on - year increase of 203% [3] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of lithium carbonate is 0, indicating a neutral view [3]

棕榈油：上下均无明显驱动，区间操作为主 豆油：美豆震荡，油脂回调整理 | | | 【基本面跟踪】 2025 年 9 月 18 日 油脂基本面数据 | | | 单 位 | 收盘价 (日盘） | 涨跌幅 | 收盘价 （夜盘） | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 棕榈油主力 | 元/吨 | 9,424 | -0.61% | 9,388 | -0.38% | | | 豆油主力 | 元/吨 | 8,366 | -0.62% | 8,350 | -0.19% | | | 菜油主力 | 元/吨 | 9,999 | -0.54% | 9,983 | -0.16% | | 期 货 | 马棕主力 | 林吉特/吨 | 4,448 | 0.07% | 4,422 | -0.63% | | | CBOT豆油主力 | 美分/磅 | 51.82 | -2.59% | | | | | | 单 位 | 昨日成交 | 成交变动 | 昨日持仓 | 持仓变动 | | | 棕榈油主力 | 手 | 680,632 | 88956 | 436,003 | -15,722 | | ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the industry are provided in the report. Core Views of the Report The report offers short - and medium - term trend forecasts for various commodities in the futures market, including precious metals, base metals, energy, chemicals, and agricultural products. The overall market shows a mix of trends such as wide - range oscillations, short - term rebounds, and long - term weakness [2][5]. Summary by Commodity Category Precious Metals - Gold: After hitting a new high, it declined. The FOMC meeting was in line with expectations, and the trend strength is neutral [7][8]. - Silver: Undergoes oscillatory adjustment, with a neutral trend strength [2][7]. Base Metals - Copper: Fed rate cuts limit price drops. Peru's copper production increased in July, and some mines faced issues like worker entrapment and production halts. The trend strength is neutral [13][15]. - Zinc: In oscillatory consolidation, with a neutral trend strength [16]. - Lead: Decreasing inventory supports price oscillations, with a neutral trend strength [19]. - Tin: Ranges within an oscillatory pattern, with a neutral trend strength [22][26]. - Aluminum: Ranges within an oscillatory pattern. Alumina rebounds from the bottom, and cast aluminum alloy follows electrolytic aluminum. All have a neutral trend strength [27][28]. - Nickel: The contradiction in the smelting end is not prominent, and attention should be paid to news - related risks in the ore end. Stainless steel prices may oscillate due to the game between short - and long - term logics. Both have a neutral trend strength [29][35]. Energy and Chemicals - Carbonate Lithium: With strong energy - storage demand, it runs in an oscillatory manner, with a neutral trend strength [36][38]. - Industrial Silicon: Attention should be paid to market sentiment changes. Polysilicon's spot price rises slightly. Industrial silicon has a neutral trend strength, and polysilicon has a slightly positive trend strength [39][42]. - Iron Ore: Expectations fluctuate, and it oscillates in a wide range, with a neutral trend strength [43]. - Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil: Both oscillate in a wide range, with a neutral trend strength [45][48]. - Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese: Boosted by macro - sentiment, they oscillate strongly, with a positive trend strength [50][52]. - Coke and Coking Coal: Expectations fluctuate, and they oscillate in a wide range, with a neutral trend strength [53][54]. - Logs: Oscillate repeatedly, with a neutral trend strength [56][59]. - Paraxylene and PTA: Short - term rebound, but medium - term weakness. MEG conducts a 1 - 5 month - spread reverse arbitrage [60]. Agricultural Products - Palm Oil: There is no obvious driving force for upward or downward movement, and it is mainly operated within a range. - Soybean Oil: Affected by the oscillation of US soybeans, it undergoes a correction. - Soybean Meal: Affected by the capital side, it deviates from the fundamentals. - Corn: Runs in an oscillatory manner. - Sugar: Oscillates downward. - Cotton: The market focuses on the listing of new cotton. - Eggs: The peak season for spot sales is over, and inventory remains high. - Live Pigs: Policy expectations have been implemented, but the weakness of the spot market remains unchanged. - Peanuts: Attention should be paid to the listing of new peanuts [5][68][73].

所长 早读 国泰君安期货 2025-09-18 期 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 期货研究 1 期货研究 2025-09-18 所长 早读 美联储今年首次降息如期落地 观点分享： 今天早上美联储将基准利率下调 25 个基点，正式重启降息，就业市场走弱是主要依据， 整体利率决议和口吻相对符合预期。点阵图方面，2025 年底利率预测中值降至 3.625%，意 味着年内 10、12 月仍将降息，2026 年利率预测较为分散，中值在 3.38%，多数委员意见在 3.63%和今年持平，意味着明年有 1 次降息但空间较小，2027、2028 年利率中值预期皆在 3.13%。SEP 方面，2025-2027 年实际 GDP 同比增速预期为 1.6%、1.8%、1.9%，较上期 有所上提；核心 PCE 同比预期分别为 3.1%、2.6%、2.1%，有所上提，但远期预期相对温和； 失业率预期分别为 4.5%、4.4%、4.3%，年内就业预期较为谨慎。美联储维持缩表，市场预 期在年底暂停 QT。 鲍威尔讲话中，倾向于就业风险，但对通胀并未完全松口。美联储主席鲍威尔在记者会 上表示，虽然失业率依然处于低位，但已经略有上升，新增 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - PX, PTA, and MEG are expected to have short - term rebounds but remain weak in the medium term. For MEG, a 1 - 5 month spread reverse arbitrage is recommended [2][11][12]. - Policy support for consumption is emphasized, and the implementation needs to be monitored. Terminal will have a final round of restocking at the end of September, after which the medium - term unilateral trend may remain weak [11][12]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Dynamics - **PX**: Due to stronger upstream prices, Asian paraxylene increased by $1.50/ton to $835.67/ton CFR Unv1/China and $814.67/ton FOB Korea, while downstream fundamentals are still weak. PX - naphtha spread closed at $226.80/ton on September 17, lower than the previous day. Some refineries in Northeast Asia may reduce aromatic hydrocarbon production. New Fengming Group will postpone the commissioning of its 3 million - ton/year No. 4 PTA production line until PTA margins improve [6][7]. - **PTA**: The current domestic PTA profit margin in China is negative, hovering around 120 - 130 yuan/ton, far below the break - even level. Hengli Petrochemical plans to shut down a 2.2 million - ton/year PTA unit in Dalian on October 11. Dushan Energy's 2.5 million - ton PTA unit plans to be overhauled in November, and the start - up plan of a new 3 million - ton PTA unit in East China is temporarily cancelled [6][7][8]. - **MEG**: On September 17, the daily average price of MEG spot was 4373 yuan/ton, and the daily average price of futures for late October was 4365 yuan/ton. The average price of spot in Ningbo market was 4398 yuan/ton, and the average price of non - coal - based spot in South China market was 4410 yuan/ton [9]. - **Polyester**: On September 17, the sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were generally weak, with an average sales rate of about 4 - 5%. The sales of direct - spun polyester staple fibers were average, with an average sales rate of 54% [9][10]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensities of PX, PTA, and MEG are all 0, indicating a neutral trend [11]. Views and Suggestions - **PX**: In the short term, it will rebound following oil prices. Hold the 11 - 01 long - short spread and the 1 - 5 reverse spread. Take profit on PXN compression positions below $220. Track the impact of Zhejiang Petrochemical's device maintenance and Sheng Hong's reformer shutdown on the PX segment. Pay attention to the possible restart of the 4.5 million - ton PTA device of Fuhai Chuang, the October maintenance of Hengli Dalian, and the November maintenance of New Fengming [11]. - **PTA**: In the short term, it will rebound following oil prices. Hold the 11 - 01 long - short spread and the 1 - 5 reverse spread. Short the 01/05 contract PTA processing fee on rallies. Future attention should be paid to the possible restart of the 4.5 million - ton PTA device of Fuhai Chuang, the October maintenance of Hengli Dalian, and the November maintenance of New Fengming. The polyester load peak has passed, and demand is expected to weaken in the fourth quarter [11][12]. - **MEG**: The market is concerned about the impact of anti - involution policies, and coal prices have rebounded, leading to a short - term recovery in ethylene glycol valuation. Implement a 1 - 5 reverse spread. The supply pressure is gradually emerging, and the 01 contract will face a loose supply situation. The polyester start - up rate reached 91.6% (+0.3%), but the start - up peak has passed, and demand is expected to weaken in the fourth quarter [12].

Report Overview - Date: September 18, 2025 [1] - Title: Industrial Silicon: Monitor Market Sentiment Changes; Polysilicon: Spot Prices Rise Slightly [1][2] Core Views - The industrial silicon market has been persistently sluggish, but companies like Yongchang Silicon Industry are taking proactive measures to optimize production and reduce costs [2][4] - Polysilicon spot prices have seen a slight increase [2] Industry Data Summary Futures Market - **Industrial Silicon (Si2511)**: The closing price was 8,965 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 275,990 lots and an open interest of 285,673 lots. Compared to previous periods, the price, volume, and open interest showed various changes [2] - **Polysilicon (PS2511)**: The closing price was 53,490 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 186,238 lots and an open interest of 126,234 lots. There were also significant changes compared to previous periods [2] Basis and Price - **Industrial Silicon**: The spot premium/discount varied depending on the grade and region. For example, the premium/discount for Xinjiang 99 silicon was -215 yuan/ton [2] - **Polysilicon**: The spot premium/discount for N-type recycled materials was -1,440 yuan/ton [2] Profit - **Industrial Silicon**: Silicon factory profits in Xinjiang and Yunnan were -2,306 yuan/ton and -3,251 yuan/ton respectively [2] - **Polysilicon**: Polysilicon enterprise profits were -14.1 yuan/kg [2] Inventory - **Industrial Silicon**: Social inventory was 53.9 million tons, enterprise inventory was 17.4 million tons, and the total industry inventory was 71.3 million tons. Futures warehouse receipt inventory was 24.9 million tons [2] - **Polysilicon**: Manufacturer inventory was 21.9 million tons [2] Raw Material Costs - **Silicon Ore**: Prices in Xinjiang and Yunnan were 330 yuan/ton and 300 yuan/ton respectively [2] - **Washed Coal**: Prices in Xinjiang and Ningxia were 1,700 yuan/ton and 1,100 yuan/ton respectively [2] - **Petroleum Coke**: Prices for Maoming Coke and Yangzi Coke were 1,400 yuan/ton and 1,770 yuan/ton respectively [2] - **Electrodes**: Graphite electrode and carbon electrode prices were 12,450 yuan/ton and 7,200 yuan/ton respectively [2] Other Industries - **Organic Silicon**: DMC price was 10,800 yuan/ton, and enterprise profit was -1,162 yuan/ton [2] - **Aluminum Alloy**: ADC12 price was 21,050 yuan/ton, and recycled aluminum enterprise profit was 160 yuan/ton [2] Trend Intensity - Industrial silicon trend intensity: 0 (neutral) [4] - Polysilicon trend intensity: 1 (slightly bullish) [4] Company News - Yongchang Silicon Industry has implemented a series of measures to optimize production and reduce costs, achieving continuous improvement in production indicators and significant enhancement in cost control [2][4]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, it offers individual ratings for various commodities: - **Short - term Rebound, Medium - term Weakness**: p - Xylene, PTA [2][4] - **1 - 5 Month Spread Reverse Arbitrage**: MEG [2][4] - **Oscillating Weakly**: Rubber [2][14] - **Oscillating Under Pressure**: Synthetic Rubber, Methanol, Urea [2][18][57] - **Oscillating with Oil, Narrow - range Movement**: Asphalt [2][21] - **Medium - term Oscillating**: LLDPE [2][36] - **Caution for Shorting at Low Levels, Medium - term Oscillating**: PP [2][40] - **Wide - range Oscillating**: Caustic Soda, Pulp, PVC [2][44][50] - **Original Sheet Price Stable**: Glass [2][54] - **Short - term Narrow - range Strong Oscillation**: LPG [2][71] - **Short - term High - level Weak Movement**: Propylene [2][72] - **Short - term Adjustment**: Fuel Oil [2][29] - **Uptrend Interrupted, High - level Oscillation of Spot High - Low Sulfur Spread**: Low - sulfur Fuel Oil [2][29] - **Under Pressure in October; Wide - range Oscillation in December and February**: Container Shipping Index (European Line) [2][30] - **Short - term Following Cost Fluctuations, Medium - term Pressure**: Staple Fiber, Bottle Chip [2][33] - **Low - level Oscillation**: Offset Printing Paper [2][34] - **Weak in the Fourth Quarter**: Pure Benzene [2][36] 2. Core Views - The report provides short - term and medium - term outlooks for various energy and chemical commodities. For many commodities, short - term trends are influenced by factors such as oil price movements, policy support for consumption, and cost fluctuations. Medium - term trends are mainly affected by supply - demand fundamentals, including plant maintenance, new capacity launches, and downstream demand changes [12][13]. 3. Summary by Commodity p - Xylene, PTA, MEG - **Market Dynamics**: Due to stronger upstream prices, Asian p - xylene rose slightly. PTA profit margins in the Chinese domestic market are negative. MEG prices and trading volumes are provided [7][10] - **Trend and Suggestions**: p - Xylene and PTA are expected to rebound in the short term and be weak in the medium term. MEG is recommended for 1 - 5 month spread reverse arbitrage. Attention should be paid to plant maintenance and restarts, as well as downstream demand changes [12][13] Rubber - **Fundamental Data**: Provides futures and spot market data, including prices, trading volumes, and open interest. The trend is oscillating weakly [15] - **Industry News**: The basis of whole - milk rubber and RU main contract widened, and the capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises changed [17] Synthetic Rubber - **Fundamental Data**: Futures and spot market data are provided, including prices, trading volumes, and open interest. The trend is oscillating under pressure [18] - **Industry News**: The inventory of domestic cis - polybutadiene rubber sample enterprises decreased, and the inventory of butadiene in East China ports declined [19] Asphalt - **Fundamental Data**: Futures and spot market data are provided, including prices, trading volumes, open interest, and inventory rates. The trend is oscillating with oil, narrow - range movement [21] - **Market News**: This week, the domestic asphalt device maintenance volume increased, the capacity utilization rate of heavy - traffic asphalt enterprises decreased, and the capacity utilization rate of modified asphalt enterprises increased [34] LLDPE - **Fundamental Data**: Futures and spot market data are provided, including prices, trading volumes, and open interest. The trend is medium - term oscillating [36] - **Market Situation Analysis**: Affected by macro - sentiment, PE is short - term strong. The demand for PE is improving, and the supply pressure may be alleviated in the short term [37] PP - **Fundamental Data**: Futures and spot market data are provided, including prices, trading volumes, and open interest. The trend is medium - term oscillating [40] - **Market Situation Analysis**: Short - term demand improves, but the cost side is weak. Supply pressure will increase in the future, but holiday factors and other uncertainties need attention [41] Caustic Soda - **Fundamental Data**: Futures and spot market data are provided. The trend is wide - range oscillating [44] - **Market Situation Analysis**: Caustic soda has insufficient upward drivers. The current market is trading the pressure of Shandong spot prices, and the market is wide - range oscillating in the short term [46] Pulp - **Fundamental Data**: Futures and spot market data are provided, including prices, trading volumes, and open interest. The trend is wide - range oscillating [51] - **Industry News**: The pulp market shows a pattern of weak futures and stable spot, with a divergence between softwood and hardwood pulp. The demand for downstream products is weak [52] Glass - **Fundamental Data**: Futures and spot market data are provided, including prices, trading volumes, and open interest. The original sheet price is stable [55] - **Spot News**: The domestic float glass market prices rise and fall alternately, and the trading atmosphere is tepid [55] Methanol - **Fundamental Data**: Futures and spot market data are provided, including prices, trading volumes, and open interest. The trend is oscillating under pressure [58] - **Spot News**: This week, the methanol port inventory fluctuates narrowly. The market is under pressure in the short term, but there are expectations of fundamental improvement [60][61] Urea - **Fundamental Data**: Futures and spot market data are provided, including prices, trading volumes, and open interest. The trend is oscillating under pressure [63] - **Industry News**: The total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises increased this week. Urea is under pressure in the short and medium terms [64][65] Styrene - **Fundamental Data**: Futures and spot market data are provided. The trend is medium - term bearish [66] - **Spot News**: The concept of anti - involution in the energy - chemical industry is re - proposed, and the cost center moves down, so styrene is short - term weak [67] Soda Ash - **Fundamental Data**: Futures and spot market data are provided, including prices, trading volumes, and open interest. The spot market changes little [69] - **Spot News**: The domestic soda ash market is firm, with individual enterprise prices rising. The supply decreases slightly, and the demand is average [69] LPG, Propylene - **Fundamental Data**: Futures and spot market data are provided, including prices, trading volumes, and open interest. LPG has short - term narrow - range strong oscillation, and propylene has short - term high - level weak movement [72] - **Market News**: The CP paper prices of propane and butane change. There are many PDH and LPG plant maintenance plans [76][77] PVC - **Fundamental Data**: Futures and spot market data are provided. The trend is wide - range oscillating [78] - **Market Situation Analysis**: Affected by anti - deflation and anti - involution factors, PVC is short - term strong, but the fundamentals are weak, with high supply and inventory [78] Fuel Oil, Low - sulfur Fuel Oil - **Fundamental Data**: Futures and spot market data are provided, including prices, trading volumes, and open interest. Fuel oil has short - term adjustment, and the uptrend of low - sulfur fuel oil is interrupted [81] - **Spot Price**: The spot prices of high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil in different regions change [81] Container Shipping Index (European Line) - **Fundamental Data**: Futures market data are provided, including prices, trading volumes, and open interest. The index is under pressure in October and has wide - range oscillation in December and February [83] - **Market Information**: The freight rates of different shipping companies and the exchange rate information are provided [83]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - The report presents the market trends of various black - series commodities on September 18, 2025, including expected price movements and fundamental data [2]. Summary by Commodity Iron Ore - Expected to have repeated expectations and wide - range fluctuations. The trend strength is 0 (neutral). The futures price of 12601 contract is 804.5 yuan/ton, up 1.0 yuan/ton with a 0.12% increase. Imported and domestic ore prices were mostly stable, with some minor changes in the prices of certain ores. The basis and spreads also showed some fluctuations [2][4]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - Both are expected to have wide - range fluctuations, with a trend strength of 0 (neutral). For the RB2601 rebar contract, the closing price is 3,168 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton (0.06%); for the HC2601 hot - rolled coil contract, the closing price is 3,390 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan/ton (- 0.38%). Spot prices in various regions generally declined slightly. In August 2025, national steel production data showed different trends, and steel import and export data also changed [2][6][7]. Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicon - Both are expected to have a strong - biased fluctuation due to the boost of macro - sentiment, with a trend strength of 1 (strong - biased). Futures prices of different contracts increased, while some spot prices decreased. Price differences such as the basis, near - far month spreads, and cross - variety spreads also changed [2][11]. Coke and Coking Coal - Both are expected to have repeated expectations and wide - range fluctuations, with a trend strength of 0 (neutral). Futures prices of JM2601 coking coal and J2601 coke contracts decreased slightly. Spot prices of coking coal increased in some regions, while coke prices decreased in some regions. The basis and spreads also showed corresponding changes [2][14][15]. Logs - Expected to have repeated fluctuations, with a trend strength of 0 (neutral). Futures prices of different contracts showed different degrees of increase, while most spot prices remained stable. Trading volume and open interest of different contracts also changed [2][17][18].

Global Benchmark Crude Oil Prices - Brent (Dated) price is 84.57, serving as the European benchmark and a major indicator of international oil prices, influenced by geopolitical risks and North Sea supply [2] - WTI (Cushing) price ranges from 64.07 - 64.09 with a mid - price of 64.08, up 0.3, reflecting inland supply - demand in the US, and its spread with Brent is affected by pipeline capacity and export demand [2] - Dubai price is 81.21, up 0.34, being the benchmark for Middle - East high - sulfur crude oil, with some trades potentially replaced by Murban crude oil [2] - Oman price is 81.55, up 0.45, a key Middle - East benchmark traded on the Dubai Mercantile Exchange (DME), reflecting the Middle - East physical crude oil market [2] Regional Crude Oil Spreads - Brent/WTI (Front) spread is 4.30/4.32, and a wider spread usually means enhanced US crude oil export profitability [2] - Brent EFP (Nov) is 0.01/0.03, an instrument for converting futures positions to physical delivery [2] - WTI EFP (Oct) is 0.01/0.01, a mechanism for converting WTI futures positions to physical delivery in Cushing [2] - Dubai/Oman Swap (Oct) spread change is 0.07, reflecting the relative value between Dubai and Oman crude oil [2] Asian Major Crude Oils - Umm Lulu price is 71.03, up 0.34, an Abu Dhabi medium - grade crude oil [4] - Das Blend price ranges from 70.46 - 70.50 with a mid - price of 70.480, up 0.34, and its pricing usually refers to the Dubai benchmark with a quality premium [4] - Qatar Land price ranges from 70.18 - 70.22 with a mid - price of 70.200, up 0.35, and its quality discount reflects API degree and sulfur content relative to the benchmark [4] - Qatar Marine price ranges from 70.13 - 70.17 with a mid - price of 70.150, up 0.45, an important oil variety exported from the Middle - East to Asia [4] - ESPO (FOB Kozmino) is a key variety in the Far - East market, usually having a premium over Dubai crude oil [4] - Minas (Indonesia) price is 67.72, with an official selling price (OSP) usually referring to Asian naphtha/gasoline cracking margins [4] - Cossack (Australia) price closely tracks Dated Brent, being a light, low - sulfur crude oil favored by Asian refineries [4] Key Crude Oil Trade Dynamics - Singapore gasoline crack (vs Dubai) is 8.93, reflecting the theoretical profit of refining crude oil into gasoline in Asia, driven by seasonal demand [5] - Singapore naphtha crack (vs Dubai) is - 4.28, indicating a loss in naphtha production due to weaker demand as a chemical raw material compared to gasoline and diesel [5] - Singapore diesel crack (vs Dubai) is 18.91, showing strong diesel demand or tight supply in Asia [5] - Singapore jet fuel crack (vs Dubai) is 17.86, highly correlated with the diesel crack spread and affected by the aviation industry recovery and seasonal travel demand [5] Key Market News - The US Fed interest rate decision (upper limit) on September 17, 2025, was announced at 4.25%, lower than the previous value of 4.50% [7] - In the week ending September 12, US crude oil exports increased by 2.532 million barrels per day to 5.277 million barrels per day, domestic production decreased by 13,000 barrels to 13.482 million barrels per day, commercial crude oil inventories (excluding strategic reserves) decreased by 9.285 million barrels to 415 million barrels, a 2.19% decline, and strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventories increased by 504,000 barrels to 405.7 million barrels, a 0.12% increase [7] - In the week ending September 12, US EIA crude oil inventories in Cushing decreased by 296,000 barrels, and overall EIA crude oil inventories decreased by 9.285 million barrels, more than the expected 857,000 - barrel decrease [7] - The US Secretary of State Rubio announced sanctions on four armed groups allied with Iran [7] Market Trends - The report indicates that crude oil may continue to rebound, and the monthly spread will strengthen simultaneously. The trend strength of crude oil is 1, within the range of [-2, 2], where - 2 means most bearish and 2 means most bullish [1][6] Futures Prices - WTI October crude oil futures closed down $0.47 per barrel, a 0.73% decline, at $64.05 per barrel [1] - Brent November crude oil futures closed down $0.52 per barrel, a 0.76% decline, at $67.95 per barrel [1] - SC2511 crude oil futures closed down 2.60 yuan per barrel, a 0.52% decline, at 497.20 yuan per barrel [1]

Report Overview - Date: September 18, 2025 - Publisher: Guotai Junan Futures Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the industries are provided in the report. Core Views - **Palm Oil**: With no obvious upward or downward drivers, it is advisable to conduct range trading [2][4]. - **Soybean Oil**: As US soybeans fluctuate, the oil is undergoing a corrective adjustment [2][4]. - **Soybean Meal**: Influenced by the capital side, it has deviated from the fundamentals [2][12]. - **Soybean**: Affected by the atmosphere of the soybean market, it is oscillating at a low level [2][12]. - **Corn**: It is moving in an oscillatory manner [2][15]. - **Sugar**: It is trending downward in an oscillatory pattern [2][19]. - **Cotton**: The market is focused on the situation of new cotton listings [2][24]. - **Eggs**: The peak season for spot sales is approaching its end, and the inventory remains high [2][31]. - **Hogs**: Although policy expectations have been realized, the weakness of the spot market persists [2][33]. - **Peanuts**: Attention should be paid to the listing of new peanuts [2][38]. Summary by Commodity Palm Oil and Soybean Oil - **Fundamental Data**: Palm oil's main contract closed at 9,424 yuan/ton during the day session with a -0.61% decline, and 9,388 yuan/ton at night with a -0.38% decline. Soybean oil's main contract closed at 8,366 yuan/ton during the day session with a -0.62% decline, and 8,350 yuan/ton at night with a -0.19% decline [4]. - **Macro and Industry News**: From September 1 - 15, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil production decreased by 8.05% compared to the same period last month, with a 6.94% decrease in yield and a 0.21% decrease in oil extraction rate. Malaysia's palm oil exports from September 1 - 15 were 695,716 tons (AmSpec) or 404,688 tons (SGS), showing a decrease compared to the same period last month [5][6][7]. - **Trend Intensity**: Both palm oil and soybean oil have a trend intensity of 0 [11]. Soybean Meal and Soybean - **Fundamental Data**: DCE soybean 2511 closed at 3,895 yuan/ton during the day session with a -0.99% decline, and 3,895 yuan/ton at night with a -0.49% decline. DCE soybean meal 2601 closed at 3,002 yuan/ton during the day session with a -1.44% decline, and 3,012 yuan/ton at night with a -0.23% decline [12]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On September 17, CBOT soybeans closed lower due to long - position liquidation, a decline in soybean oil, and an increase in the US dollar index. The US EPA plans to redistribute the biofuel blending obligations of small refineries to large refineries [12][13]. - **Trend Intensity**: Both soybean meal and soybean have a trend intensity of 0 [14]. Corn - **Fundamental Data**: The price of the C2511 contract was 2,161 yuan/ton during the day session with a -0.37% decline, and 2,173 yuan/ton at night with a 0.56% increase. The price of the C2601 contract was 2,155 yuan/ton during the day session with a -0.14% decline, and 2,165 yuan/ton at night with a 0.46% increase [16]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The northern port collection price of corn was 2,240 - 2,260 yuan/ton, and the price at Guangdong Shekou was 2,400 - 2,420 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged from the previous day [17]. - **Trend Intensity**: Corn has a trend intensity of 0 [18]. Sugar - **Fundamental Data**: The raw sugar price was 15.51 cents/pound, a decrease of 0.39 cents. The mainstream spot price was 5,940 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The futures main contract price was 5,529 yuan/ton, a decrease of 18 yuan [19]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points. Brazil's sugar production in the second half of August increased by 18% year - on - year. India's monsoon precipitation increased again. Brazil's sugar exports decreased, raising concerns about global consumption. Conab lowered Brazil's sugar production forecast for the 25/26 season to 44.5 million tons [19]. - **Trend Intensity**: Sugar has a trend intensity of -1 [22]. Cotton - **Fundamental Data**: The CF2601 contract closed at 13,890 yuan/ton during the day session with a -0.04% decline, and 13,870 yuan/ton at night with a -0.14% decline. The CY2511 contract closed at 19,910 yuan/ton during the day session with a -0.20% decline, and 19,900 yuan/ton at night with a -0.05% decline [24]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The overall trading of cotton spot was sluggish, and the market was waiting for new cotton listings. The trading of the pure cotton yarn market was lukewarm, weaker than the same period in previous years [25]. - **Trend Intensity**: Cotton has a trend intensity of 0 [28]. Eggs - **Fundamental Data**: The egg 2510 contract closed at 3,059 yuan/500 kilograms with a -1.83% decline, and the egg 2601 contract closed at 3,376 yuan/500 kilograms with a -0.18% decline [31]. - **Trend Intensity**: Eggs have a trend intensity of 0 [31]. Hogs - **Fundamental Data**: The Henan spot price was 12,980 yuan/ton, a decrease of 250 yuan. The Sichuan spot price was 12,800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 150 yuan. The Guangdong spot price was 13,960 yuan/ton, a decrease of 200 yuan [34]. - **Market Logic**: Group companies significantly reduced their sales volume, but the weight increased again, and the price difference between fat and lean hogs weakened, indicating a serious passive inventory accumulation. The supply in September is expected to increase significantly, and the market pressure will be prominent from September to October [36]. - **Trend Intensity**: Hogs have a trend intensity of -2 [35]. Peanuts - **Fundamental Data**: The PK510 contract closed at 7,818 yuan/ton with a 0.23% increase, and the PK511 contract closed at 7,822 yuan/ton with a 0.72% increase [38]. - **Spot Market Focus**: In some regions, the price of peanuts was stable. Some areas are expected to have new peanuts listed in about 10 days [39]. - **Trend Intensity**: Peanuts have a trend intensity of 0 [40].