2025年12月25日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-绿色金融与新能源 | 观点与策略 | | --- | | 镍：盘面资金博弈，追高仍需谨慎 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 不锈钢：基本面供需双弱，印尼镍矿消息扰动 | 2 | | 碳酸锂：高位震荡，关注复产进展与情绪降温 | 4 | | 工业硅：关注工厂减产情况 | 6 | | 多晶硅：增加交割厂库，关注情绪面 | 6 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 12 月 25 日 镍：盘面资金博弈，追高仍需谨慎 不锈钢：基本面供需双弱，印尼镍矿消息扰动 张再宇 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021479 zhangzaiyu@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 镍基本面数据 | | | 指标名称 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-10 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 沪镍主力（收盘价） | 128,000 | 4,560 | 14,200 | 10,91 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The report provides trend forecasts for various commodities in the black series, including iron ore, rebar, hot - rolled coil, ferrosilicon, silicomanganese, coke, coking coal, and logs. The trends are described as high - level fluctuations for iron ore, wide - range oscillations for rebar and hot - rolled coil, wide - range oscillations due to market information disturbances for ferrosilicon and silicomanganese, repeated oscillations for coke and coking coal, and low - level oscillations for logs [2]. 3. Summary by Commodity Iron Ore - **Price and Position Data**: The previous day's futures closing price was 779.5 yuan/ton, up 1.0 yuan/ton with a 0.13% increase. The previous day's position was 553,717 lots, a decrease of 317 lots. Among imported ores, the price of Carajás fines (65%) dropped 3.0 yuan/ton to 869.0 yuan/ton, PB fines (61.5%) dropped 3.0 yuan/ton to 787.0 yuan/ton, etc. The basis for different varieties decreased [5]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On December 22, the 12 - month loan prime rate (LPR) was announced, with the 5 - year - plus LPR at 3.5% and the 1 - year LPR at 3%. There was no change from the previous month [5]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of iron ore is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [5]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Price and Position Data**: For rebar RB2605, the previous day's closing price was 3,136 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton with a 0.06% increase. For hot - rolled coil HC2605, the closing price was 3,285 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan/ton with a 0.09% increase. Spot prices in most regions remained unchanged [8]. - **Macro and Industry News**: According to the weekly data from SteelUnion on December 18, rebar production increased by 2.90 thousand tons, hot - rolled coil production decreased by 16.80 thousand tons, and the total production of five major varieties decreased by 8.25 thousand tons. Total inventory decreased, and apparent demand for rebar increased while that for hot - rolled coil decreased [9]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity for both rebar and hot - rolled coil is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [10]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Price and Position Data**: In futures, the prices of different contracts of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese had varying degrees of increase. Spot prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese and related raw materials are provided, and the price differences between futures and spot, near - and far - month contracts, and cross - varieties also changed [12]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On December 24, the prices of different grades of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese in various regions were reported. Some silicon - iron furnaces were shut down and restarted, and some silicon - manganese furnaces were newly ignited. The production of silicon - manganese in some northern regions decreased, and the production of silicon - iron in Qinghai decreased [13][14]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity for both ferrosilicon and silicomanganese is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [14]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Price and Position Data**: The previous day's futures closing price of coking coal JM2605 was 1,132 yuan/ton, up 6.5 yuan/ton with a 0.6% increase, and that of coke J2605 was 1,746 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton with a 0.3% increase. Spot prices of coking coal and coke in some regions remained unchanged, while some prices changed [15]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On December 22, the 12 - month loan prime rate (LPR) was announced, with the 5 - year - plus LPR at 3.5% and the 1 - year LPR at 3%. There was no change from the previous month [16]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity for both coke and coking coal is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [18]. Logs - **Price and Position Data**: The closing prices of different contracts of logs had small increases, while trading volumes decreased significantly. Spot prices of most log varieties remained stable, with only a few showing small changes [20]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On December 22, the 12 - month loan prime rate (LPR) was announced, with the 5 - year - plus LPR at 3.5% and the 1 - year LPR at 3%. There was no change from the previous month [22]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of logs is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [22].

2025年12月25日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-农产品 观点与策略 | 棕榈油：短期节奏反弹，高度有限 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 豆油：美豆驱动不大，区间操作为主 | 2 | | 豆粕：隔夜美豆收涨，连粕或反弹震荡 | 4 | | 豆一：国储收储价上调，影响偏多 | 4 | | 玉米：关注现货 | 6 | | 白糖：弱基差预期 | 7 | | 棉花：期价震荡偏强，注意整体市场情绪20251225 | 8 | | 鸡蛋：震荡调整 | 10 | | 生猪：投机需求兑现 | 11 | | 花生：关注油厂收购 | 12 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 12 月 25 日 品 研 究 棕榈油：短期节奏反弹，高度有限 豆油：美豆驱动不大，区间操作为主 | | | 【基本面跟踪】 油脂基本面数据 | | 棕榈油主力 | 单 位 元/吨 | 收盘价(日 盘） | 涨跌幅 0.02% | 收盘价 （夜 盘） | 涨跌幅 0.78% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...

2025 年 12 月 24 日 黄金、白银、铂、钯、铜期货将创下上市以来新高 铂、 钯、白银、镍、碳酸锂期货将震荡偏强 陶金峰 期货投资咨询从业资格号：Z0000372 邮箱：taojinfeng@gtht.com 【正文】 【声明】 本报告的观点和信息仅供风险承受能力合适的投资者参考。本报告难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不 便，敬请谅解。若您并非风险承受能力合适的投资者，请勿阅读、订阅或接收任何相关信息。本报告不构 成具体业务或产品的推介，亦不应被视为相应金融衍生品的投资建议。请您根据自身的风险承受能力自行 作出投资决定并自主承担投资风险，不应凭借本内容进行具体操作。 【期货行情前瞻要点】 通过宏观基本面分析和黄金分割线、水平线、日均线等技术面分析，预期 2025 年 12 月 23 日期货主力合约行 情走势大概率如下： | 期 | 货 | 主力合 | 趋势 | 阻力位 | 支撑位 | 备注 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | | 约 | | | | | | 股指 | | IF2603 | 偏弱震荡 | 4583 和 4605 点 | 4 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Report's Core View - The report presents the daily statistics of futures and options markets for various commodities, including agricultural products, energy chemicals, black commodities, and metals, on December 23, 2025, covering data such as closing prices, price changes, trading volumes, and open interests [1][5][9][11] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Agricultural Products Data 3.1.1 Futures Market Statistics - The closing prices of various agricultural products showed different trends, with cotton, apple, and palm oil rising by 70, 81, and 72 respectively, while peanut, egg, and红枣 fell by 12, 12, and 70 respectively [1] - The trading volumes and open interests of most varieties also changed, with corn starch and soybean meal showing significant changes in trading volume and open interest [1] 3.1.2 Options Market Statistics - The trading volumes and open interests of options for different agricultural products had different degrees of change, and the Put - Call Ratios (PCR) also showed different trends [3] 3.1.3 Options Quantitative Indicators - The implied volatilities, historical volatilities, and skewness of different agricultural products' options were presented, with the implied volatilities of some varieties such as palm oil and soybean meal having certain changes [4] 3.2 Energy Chemical Data 3.2.1 Futures Market Statistics - Among energy chemical products, PVC, short - fiber, and urea rose by 147, 20, and 23 respectively, while LPG, BR rubber, and asphalt fell by 94, 55, and 18 respectively [5] - The trading volumes and open interests of different varieties also changed, with PVC and methanol showing relatively large changes in trading volume [5] 3.2.2 Options Market Statistics - The trading volumes and open interests of energy chemical options changed, and the PCR values also showed different trends, such as the PCR of PTA options having a certain increase [6][7] 3.2.3 Options Quantitative Indicators - The implied volatilities, historical volatilities, and skewness of energy chemical options were provided, with the implied volatilities of some varieties like PTA and PVC being relatively high [8] 3.3 Black Data 3.3.1 Futures Market Statistics - In the black commodity market, silicon iron and rebar rose by 4 and 2 respectively, while manganese silicon and iron ore fell by 18 and 3 respectively [9] - The trading volumes and open interests of different varieties changed, with the trading volume of iron ore decreasing significantly [9] 3.3.2 Options Market Statistics - The trading volumes and open interests of black commodity options changed, and the PCR values also showed different trends, such as the PCR of iron ore options increasing [9] 3.3.3 Options Quantitative Indicators - The implied volatilities, historical volatilities, and skewness of black commodity options were presented, with the implied volatility of rebar options having a relatively large change [10] 3.4 Metal Data 3.4.1 Futures Market Statistics - Among metals, silver, nickel, and tin rose by 231, 1740, and 3490 respectively, while copper, zinc, and aluminum fell by 390, 25, and 25 respectively [11] - The trading volumes and open interests of different varieties changed, with the trading volume of silver decreasing significantly [11] 3.4.2 Options Market Statistics - The trading volumes and open interests of metal options changed, and the PCR values also showed different trends, such as the PCR of silver options increasing [12] 3.4.3 Options Quantitative Indicators - The implied volatilities, historical volatilities, and skewness of metal options were provided, with the implied volatility of silver being relatively high [13]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the reports. 2. Core Viewpoints - The aluminum market is expected to experience narrow - range fluctuations, the alumina market is expected to rebound from the bottom, and the cast aluminum alloy market will follow the trend of electrolytic aluminum [1]. - In the US, the October durable - goods orders decreased by 2.2% month - on - month, far below expectations, but core durable - goods orders increased for seven consecutive months. The manufacturing orders are still growing in absolute terms. The non - defense capital goods orders including aircraft in October grew stronger than expected, and non - defense capital goods orders excluding aircraft increased by 0.5% month - on - month, up for four consecutive months, indicating strong corporate equipment spending at the beginning of the fourth quarter [2]. - US Treasury Secretary Baysent believes that the Fed has room to adjust the inflation target of 2%. An inflation target range of 1.5% - 2.5% or 1% - 3% is worth discussing after the inflation rate steadily falls to 2% [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The closing price of the Shanghai aluminum main contract was 22,195 yuan, down 25 yuan from the previous day; the LME aluminum 3M closing price was 2,941 US dollars, unchanged. Trading volumes and positions of related contracts showed different degrees of changes. The LME cancelled warehouse receipt ratio was 14.32%, and the LME aluminum cash - 3M spread was - 44.27 [1]. - **Alumina**: The closing price of the Shanghai alumina main contract was 2,520 yuan, up 22 yuan from the previous day. Trading volumes and positions of related contracts decreased. The spread between the near - month contract and the first - continuous contract was - 10 yuan [1]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The closing price of the aluminum alloy main contract was 21,265 yuan, down 25 yuan from the previous day. Trading volumes increased, while positions decreased. The spread between the near - month contract and the first - continuous contract was - 95 yuan, and the spot premium was - 170 yuan [1]. Spot Market - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The social inventory of domestic aluminum ingots was 588,000 tons, unchanged from the previous day. The aluminum spot import loss was 2,063.71 yuan, and the 3M import loss was 2,010.98 yuan. The export profit of aluminum sheets and coils was 3,580.61 yuan. The electrolytic aluminum enterprise profit was 5,641.59 yuan [1]. - **Alumina**: The average domestic alumina price was 2,737 yuan, down 14 yuan from the previous day. The alumina price at the Lianyungang port of entry was 2,795 yuan, up 50 yuan. The profit of Shanxi alumina enterprises was - 147 yuan [1]. - **Aluminum Bauxite**: The prices of imported bauxite from Australia, Indonesia, and Guinea showed different degrees of changes, with the Australian imported bauxite price at 67 US dollars per ton (Al:48 - 50%, Si:8 - 10%) [1]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The theoretical profit of ADC12 was - 1 yuan, and the price of Baotai ADC12 was 21,300 yuan [1]. - **Caustic Soda**: The price of Shaanxi ion - membrane liquid caustic soda (32% converted to 100%) was 2,430 yuan, unchanged from the previous day [1]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of aluminum is 1, indicating a relatively strong trend; the trend intensities of alumina and aluminum alloy are 0, indicating a neutral trend [2][3].

【基本面跟踪】 豆粕/豆一基本面数据 2025 年 12 月 24 日 商 品 研 究 豆粕：隔夜美豆微跌，连粕或震荡 豆一：现货稳定，盘面震荡 吴光静 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011992 wuguangjing@gtht.com | | | 收盘价 （日盘） | 涨 跌 | 收盘价 （夜盘） 涨 跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | DCE豆一2605（元/吨） | 4104 | -13（-0.32%） | 4118 +14（+0.34%） | | 期 货 | DCE豆粕2605（元/吨） | 2745 | +5（+0.18%） | 2756 +14（+0.51%） | | | CBOT大豆03（美分/蒲） | 1063 | -1.0（-0.09%） | | | | CBOT豆粕03（美元/短吨） | 304 | +2.3（+0.76%） | n a | | | | | 豆粕 （43%） | | | | | 较昨持平至+40； 3040～3120， | 现货基差M2605+360， | 持平； 2026年1-2月或2-3月 | | | 山东 （元/吨） | 持平； ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The price of copper is rising due to the continuous decline of the US dollar [1] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Price and Change**: The closing price of the Shanghai Copper main contract was 93,930, with a daily decline of 0.41%, and the night - session closing price was 94,890, with a night - session increase of 1.02%. The LME Copper 3M electronic disk closed at 12,055, with an increase of 1.21% [1] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the Shanghai Copper index was 260,740, a decrease of 144,031 from the previous day, and the open interest was 635,670, a decrease of 9,850. The trading volume of the LME Copper 3M electronic disk was 26,306, an increase of 10,441, and the open interest was 342,000, a decrease of 2,837 [1] - **Inventory and Cancellation Rate**: The Shanghai Copper inventory was 49,543, an increase of 1,001. The LME Copper inventory was 158,575, an increase of 825, and the cancellation rate was 30.82%, a decrease of 1.98% [1] - **Price Spreads**: Various price spreads such as LME copper premium/discount, bonded warehouse warrant premium, etc., showed different changes compared with the previous day [1] 2. Macro and Industry News - **Macro**: In 2026, efforts will be made to stabilize the real estate market, control increments, reduce inventories, and optimize supplies according to local conditions. The US Q3 GDP increased by 4.3% year - on - year, the core PCE increased by 2.9%, the October durable goods orders decreased by 2.2% month - on - month, and the consumer confidence in December declined for five consecutive months. The labor market is recovering [1] - **Industry**: Glencore expanded its business in Peru by acquiring the Quechua copper project. The Peruvian Congress extended the temporary licenses of small - scale miners to the end of 2026. Kazakhstan's refined copper output from January to November 2025 increased by 2.5% year - on - year, reaching 431,998 tons [3] 3. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of copper is 1, indicating a relatively neutral view on the copper market trend [3]

Group 1: Report's Core Viewpoints - Nickel faces concerns about Indonesian policies, leading to a sentiment-driven price increase on the trading floor [4] - Stainless steel has a weak supply - demand fundamental situation, and is affected by news of Indonesian nickel mines [4] Group 2: Industry News - On September 12, the Indonesian Forestry Task Force took over over 148 hectares of PT Weda Bay Nickel's mining area due to violations, which is expected to affect nickel production by about 600 metal tons per month [2] - China has suspended an unofficial subsidy for imported copper and nickel from Russia [3] - On September 22, the Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources imposed sanctions on 190 mining companies for not providing claim and refund guarantees [3] - On September 30, the Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources issued Ministerial Decree No. 17 (2025) regarding RKAB approval procedures, with the 2026 RKAB approval deadline set for November 15, 2025 [5] - Trump announced on October 10 that he might impose an additional 100% tariff on China from November 1 and implement export controls on "all critical software" [5] - The Indonesian government has suspended issuing new smelting licenses for certain nickel - related products through the OSS platform [6] - Indonesian industrial parks are strengthening safety inspections, affecting the production of some nickel wet - process projects, with a production reduction of about 6000 nickel metal tons in December [6] - On November 21, New York Fed President John Williams and Fed Governor Stephen Miran made dovish remarks, increasing the probability of a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut in December [6] - On December 12, China's Ministry of Commerce and General Administration of Customs decided to impose export license management on some steel products starting January 1, 2026 [6] - The Indonesian Nickel Miners Association (APNI) revealed that the government will revise the nickel ore benchmark price formula in early 2026 and start taxing cobalt as an independent commodity [6] - The Indonesian government plans to significantly reduce the 2026 nickel ore production target from 379 million tons to 250 million tons [7] Group 3: Fundamental Data Tracking Futures Data - The closing price of the main Shanghai nickel contract is 123,440, and the closing price of the main stainless - steel contract is 12,905 [3] - The trading volume of the main Shanghai nickel contract is 386,986, and the trading volume of the main stainless - steel contract is 263,756 [3] Industry Chain - Related Data - The price of 1 imported nickel is 122,250, the Russian nickel premium is 600, and the nickel bean premium is 2300 [3] - The price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron (ex - factory price) is 889, and the nickel plate - high - nickel iron price difference is 334 [3] - The nickel plate import profit is 572 [3] - The price of laterite nickel ore 1.5% (Philippines CIF) is 55 [3] - In the stainless - steel market, prices of different products such as 304/2B rolls and 304/No.1 rolls vary, with price changes from different time periods [3] - The price of high - carbon ferrochrome (FeCr55, Inner Mongolia) is 8100, and the price of battery - grade nickel sulfate is 27,430 [3] - The nickel sulfate premium is 535 [3] Group 4: Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of nickel is +1, and the trend intensity of stainless steel is +1 [7]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Report's Core View - Platinum's outer - market price breaks through the previous high with strong upward momentum, while palladium follows platinum to rise [1]. - The trend strength of platinum and palladium is both 1, indicating a neutral - to - slightly - bullish outlook [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamentals Tracking - **Price Data**: Platinum futures 2606 closed at 619.95 with a 9.06% increase; gold - exchange platinum at 561.61 with a 5.26% increase; New York platinum main - continuous at 2320.10 with a 7.97% increase; London spot platinum at 2285.00 with an 8.46% increase. Palladium futures 2606 closed at 532.55 with a 4.74% increase; RMB spot palladium at 437.00 with a 1.63% increase; New York palladium main - continuous at 1964.00 with a 5.56% increase; London spot palladium at 1858.00 with a 5.21% increase [1]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: For Guangdong platinum, the trading volume was 155,413 (a change of 101,107 from the previous day) and the open interest was 44,432 (a change of 3,345). For NYMEX platinum, the trading volume was 42,519 (- 9,028) and the open interest was 59,873 (a change of 27,467). For Guangdong palladium, the trading volume was 182,094 (a change of 153,767) and the open interest was 22,805 (a change of 5,106). For NYMEX palladium, the trading volume was 13,058 (a change of 1,991) and the open interest was 211,674 (a change of 190,256) [1]. - **ETF Holdings**: Platinum ETF holdings (ounces, previous day) were 3,269,872 (a change of 20,778), and palladium ETF holdings (ounces, previous day) were 1,138,951 (a change of 9,396) [1]. - **Inventory Data**: NYMEX platinum inventory (ounces, previous day) was 624,733 (no change), and NYMEX palladium inventory (ounces, previous day) was 195,570 (a change of 6,480). No data was provided for Guangdong platinum and palladium inventories [1]. - **Spread Data**: PT9995 to PT2606 spread was - 58.34 (a change of - 23.46); Guangdong platinum 2606 to 2610 spread was - 2.40 (no change), and the cross - period arbitrage cost of buying Guangdong platinum 2606 and selling 2610 was 7.62 (a change of 0.61). The spread between the gold - exchange platinum and London platinum was 44.53 (a change of - 12.10). Similar spread data for palladium was also provided [1]. - **Exchange Rate Data**: The US dollar index was 97.90 with a - 0.37% change; the US dollar to RMB (CNY spot) was 7.04 with a - 0.04% change; the US dollar to offshore RMB (CNH spot) was 7.03 with a 0.06% change; the US dollar to RMB (6M forward) was 6.95 with a - 0.08% change [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - The US economy expanded at a 4.3% rate in the third quarter, the fastest in two years, but the US consumer confidence index declined for five consecutive months [4]. - According to the ADP weekly employment report, private - sector employers added an average of 11,500 jobs per week in the four weeks ending December 6, 2025 [4]. - Trump stated that those who disagree with his views will never become the Federal Reserve Chairman [4]. - Hassett, the next - potential Federal Reserve candidate, predicted that monthly new jobs may return to over 100,000 and that the Federal Reserve lags far behind the situation in terms of interest - rate cuts [4]. - US Treasury Secretary Bessent suggested that the Federal Reserve could discuss adjusting the inflation target to a range of 1.5% - 2.5% or 1% - 3% [4]. - The Russian Foreign Ministry refuted the rumor that the Russian embassy in Venezuela was evacuating [4]. - Two departments such as the National Development and Reform Commission aimed to reach a total installed capacity of about 15 million kilowatts for solar - thermal power generation by 2030 [4].