Report Industry Investment Rating - No clear industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core View of the Report - The caustic soda market will continue to fluctuate widely in the short term. Currently, there is insufficient driving force, with the market in a state of expected game. There is no sufficient driving force for an upward trend, but there is also no driving force for a downward trend in the spot market for now [1][3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - 01 contract futures price is 2610, the cheapest deliverable 32% caustic soda spot price in Shandong is 870, the Shandong 32% caustic soda spot price converted to the futures contract is 2719, and the basis is 109 [2]. - In Shandong, the liquid caustic soda market remained stable overall. As orders were shipped, it temporarily supported the market. In southwestern Shandong, the high - price sales of individual enterprises slowed down, and prices declined slightly. Attention should be paid to the delivery volume of major downstream industries and the inventory of caustic soda plants [2]. Market Condition Analysis - The main obstacles to the rise of caustic soda come from exports and alumina. In terms of exports, the new production capacity of Vinythai and high supply in Japan and South Korea have led to sufficient supply in Southeast Asia. The export profit has not expanded, the export orders have not improved, and the price difference between 50% and 32% caustic soda is weak, resulting in insufficient driving force for the rise of caustic soda. In terms of alumina, the high - production and high - inventory pattern has continuously compressed profits, and the supply of marginal production capacity may be affected by profits in the future. Although there are expected new production capacities of 3.6 million tons in Guangxi by the end of this year and 2 million tons of Orient Hope in early next year, the market is difficult to achieve a resonance between futures and spot before the stockpiling starts [3]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of caustic soda is 0, indicating a neutral view [4].

2025 年 09 月 08 日 工业硅：关注市场情绪变化 多晶硅：关注仓单注册情况 张 航 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018008 zhanghang2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 工业硅、多晶硅基本面数据 | | | 指标名称 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-22 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | Si2511收盘价（元/吨） | 8,820 | 305 | 430 | 120 | | | | Si2511成交量（手） | 563,286 | 191,481 | 224,312 | 98,203 | | | | Si2511持仓量（手） | 286,545 | 9,240 | -5,870 | 77,809 | | | 工业硅、多晶硅期货市场 | PS2511收盘价（元/吨） | 56,735 | 4,540 | 7,180 | - | | | | PS2511成交量（手） | 665,242 | 397,162 | 312,183 | - | | | | PS2511持仓量（手） | 185,039 | 39,089 | ...

2025 年 9 月 8 日 焦炭：预期反复，宽幅震荡 焦煤：预期反复，宽幅震荡 张广硕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020198 zhangguangshuo@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 焦煤焦炭基本面数据 | | | | 昨日收盘价(元/吨) | 涨跌(元/吨) | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | JM2601 | 1094. 5 | -11.5 | -1.0% | | 期货价格 | | J2601 | 1581.5 | -12.5 | -0.8% | | | | | 昨日成交(手) | 昨日持仓(手) | 持仓变动(手) | | | | JM2601 | 1185403 | 733627 | -12138 | | | | J2601 | 23549 | 46827 | 423 | | | | | 昨日价格(元/吨) | 前日价格(元/吨) | 涨跌(元/吨) | | | | 临汾低硫主焦 | 1430 | 1450 | -20 | | | 焦煤 | 金泉蒙5精煤自提价 | 1176 | 1176 | 0 | | | | 吕梁低硫主焦 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - The report focuses on the lithium carbonate market, indicating that both supply and demand are increasing, and the market is in a weakly oscillating state. The trend strength of lithium carbonate is -1, suggesting a relatively bearish outlook [1][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Contracts**: For the 2509 contract, the closing price was 73,880 yuan, with a change of 880 yuan compared to T - 1. The trading volume was 50, and the open interest was 3,467. For the 2511 contract, the closing price was 74,260 yuan, the trading volume was 802,006, and the open interest was 364,002 [1]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The warehouse receipt volume was 36,631 hands, an increase of 1,683 hands compared to T - 1 [1]. - **Basis**: The basis of spot - 2509 was 870 yuan, and spot - 2511 was 490 yuan. The basis of 2509 - 2511 was -380 yuan [1]. - **Raw Materials**: The price of spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 871 yuan, and the price of lepidolite (2.0% - 2.5%) was 1,865 yuan [1]. - **Lithium Salts**: The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 74,750 yuan, and industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 72,500 yuan. The price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (micropowder) was 80,520 yuan [1]. - **Industry Chain Related Data**: The price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) was 33,930 yuan, and the price of ternary materials 523 (polycrystalline/consumer type) was 113,450 yuan [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 74,655 yuan/ton, a decrease of 214 yuan/ton compared to the previous working day. Kodal Minerals obtained approval from the Malian government to export 125,000 tons of spodumene concentrate from the Bougouni lithium project [2]. 3.3 Trend Strength - The trend strength of lithium carbonate is -1, with the value ranging from -2 to 2, indicating a relatively bearish view [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Short fiber: Short-term rebound [1] - Bottle chip: Short-term rebound [1] 2. Core Viewpoints - Short fiber futures rebounded after following the decline of raw materials. Most factory quotes for short fiber spot remained unchanged, and transactions were negotiated on a case-by-case basis. The sales of direct-spun polyester staple fibers were light, with an average production and sales rate of 38% as of around 3:00 pm [1]. - Polyester bottle chip factories continued to slightly lower their export quotes. The negotiation range of mainstream bottle chip factories in East China was between 765 - 785 US dollars/ton FOB Shanghai Port, and that in South China was between 760 - 770 US dollars/ton FOB main ports, with overall discounts negotiated based on quantity [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking Short Fiber - Futures prices: Short fiber 2509 was 6250 (down 4 from the previous day), short fiber 2510 was 6348 (up 6), short fiber 2511 was 6334 (down 76) [1]. - Spread: PF09 - 10 was -98 (down 10), PF10 - 11 was 14 (up 82), PF basis was 87 (down 21) [1]. - Position and volume: The short fiber main contract's open interest was 168,093 (up 21,285), and the trading volume was 150,977 (up 20,764) [1]. - Spot price and production - sales rate: The short fiber spot price in East China was 6,435 (down 15), and the production - sales rate was 39% (down 6%) [1]. Bottle Chip - Futures prices: Bottle chip 2509 was 5694 (down 58), bottle chip 2510 was 5842 (up 16), bottle chip 2511 was 5840 (up 20) [1]. - Spread: PR09 - 10 was -148 (down 74), PR10 - 11 was 2 (down 4), PR main contract basis was -22 (up 14) [1]. - Position and volume: The bottle chip main contract's open interest was 37,165 (up 1,278), and the trading volume was 38,013 (down 64,262) [1]. - Spot price: The bottle chip spot price in East China was 5820 (up 30), and in South China was 5880 (up 20) [1]. 3.2 Spot News - Short fiber: Short fiber futures rebounded after following the decline of raw materials. Factory quotes mostly remained unchanged, and sales were light with an average production - sales rate of 38% [1]. - Bottle chip: Polyester bottle chip factories continued to slightly lower their export quotes, with different negotiation ranges in East and South China [2]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - Short fiber trend intensity: 1 [3] - Bottle chip trend intensity: 1 (only referring to the daily - session main - contract futures price fluctuations on the report day) [3]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Rubber: Bullish with a slight upward trend [2][4] - Synthetic Rubber: Stable oscillation with support [2][10] - Asphalt: Weak performance, focus on Shandong's shipments [2][14] - LLDPE: Medium - term oscillatory market [2][29] - PP: Short - term oscillation, medium - term downward pressure [2][33] - Caustic Soda: Short - term wide - range oscillation [2][37] - Pulp: Oscillatory operation [2][43] - Glass: Stable prices for raw sheets [2][50] - Methanol: Oscillatory operation [2][53] - Urea: Short - term fluctuations, long - term downward pressure [2][59] - Styrene: Bearish in the medium term [2][62] - Soda Ash: Little change in the spot market [2][64] - LPG: Short - term weak oscillation due to OPEC+ production increase expectations [2][68] - Propylene: Short - term weak operation as spot supply - demand support weakens [2][68] - PVC: Downward pressure in the trend [2][80] - Fuel Oil: Weakness persists, potential for further decline [2][83] - Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil: Continuing to decline, narrowing of the high - low sulfur spread in the overseas spot market [2][83] - Container Freight Index (European Line): Weak oscillation [2][85] - Staple Fiber: Short - term rebound [2][98] - Bottle Chip: Short - term rebound [2][98] - Offset Printing Paper: Low - level oscillation, lack of upward momentum [2][102] - Pure Benzene: Weak oscillation [2][104] Core Views - The natural rubber market was supported by raw materials last week, with prices rising due to supply disruptions from weather and inventory reduction, but the increase was limited by the weakening preference in the commodity market. The import volume in August is expected to increase slightly [8]. - The synthetic rubber market has increasing fundamental pressure from high supply, but there are expectations of a Fed preventive rate cut and policy support, so the futures price oscillates with support [12]. - The asphalt market is in a weak state. The weekly output has increased, the factory inventory in some areas has accumulated, and the social inventory has decreased in some areas [14][28]. - The LLDPE market has a slightly increasing price. The demand is improving due to the upcoming peak season for the agricultural film industry, and the supply pressure may be relieved in the East China region in late September. The market is expected to oscillate in the medium term [29][30]. - The PP market has short - term demand improvement, but the cost is weak. The supply pressure will increase in the future, and the long - term trend is under pressure [33][34]. - The caustic soda market lacks driving forces, with the main obstacles to price increases coming from exports and the alumina industry. The market is in a wide - range oscillation [37][38]. - The pulp market is oscillating. The trading atmosphere is light, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to be affected by the international market and downstream demand [43][46]. - The glass market has stable raw sheet prices, with regional differences in market transactions and limited changes in downstream orders [50][51]. - The methanol market is oscillating. The port inventory is increasing, and the price is affected by supply and demand and macro - economic sentiment [53][56]. - The urea market has short - term fluctuations but a long - term downward trend. The short - term price may rebound due to increased exports, but the long - term demand is weak [59][60][61]. - The styrene market is bearish in the medium term. The cost center has shifted down due to OPEC's production increase, and the price may decline [62][63]. - The soda ash market has little change in the spot market, with stable supply and weak demand [64][66]. - The LPG market is in short - term weak oscillation due to OPEC+ production increase expectations, and the propylene market is also weak in the short term as supply - demand support weakens [68][73]. - The PVC market has high production and inventory, weak downstream demand, and increasing export policy uncertainties, resulting in downward pressure [80]. - The fuel oil market is weak, and the low - sulfur fuel oil is continuing to decline, with a narrowing of the high - low sulfur spread [83]. - The container freight index (European Line) is in weak oscillation. The freight rate is expected to decline in the short term, and the market is affected by supply and demand and geopolitical factors [85][93][95]. - The staple fiber and bottle chip markets are experiencing short - term rebounds, with different trends in futures and spot markets [98]. - The offset printing paper market is in low - level oscillation, with weak upward momentum due to slow demand from downstream printers [102][103]. - The pure benzene market is in weak oscillation, with changes in prices and inventories affected by factors such as crude oil prices [104]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Rubber - The rubber's main contract had price increases in both the day and night sessions, with increased trading volume and open interest. The inventory decreased, and the supply was affected by weather. The demand from tire companies was affected by factory maintenance [5][8][9] Synthetic Rubber - The futures price of synthetic rubber increased, with changes in trading volume, open interest, and basis. The inventory of high - cis polybutadiene rubber increased slightly, and the market was affected by supply, demand, and expectations [10][11][12] Asphalt - The asphalt futures prices declined, with changes in trading volume, open interest, and basis. The production increased, the factory inventory in some areas rose, and the social inventory in some areas decreased [14][28] LLDPE - The LLDPE futures price increased slightly, with stable spot prices. The demand is supported by the agricultural film industry, and the supply pressure may be relieved in late September [29][30] PP - The PP futures price increased, with a slight decline in spot prices. The short - term demand improved, but the cost was weak, and the supply pressure will increase [33][34] Caustic Soda - The caustic soda futures price is related to the spot price in Shandong. The market lacks driving forces, with obstacles from exports and the alumina industry [37][38] Pulp - The pulp's main contract had price changes, with decreased trading volume, open interest, and inventory. The trading atmosphere was light, and the demand was weak [43][46] Glass - The glass futures price increased, with stable or slightly adjusted spot prices. The market transactions had regional differences, and the downstream orders changed little [50][51] Methanol - The methanol futures price increased, with a decline in the port average price. The port inventory increased, and the price was affected by supply and demand and macro - economic sentiment [53][56] Urea - The urea futures price decreased slightly, with stable spot prices in most areas. The enterprise inventory increased slightly, and the short - term price may fluctuate, but the long - term trend is downward [59][60][61] Styrene - The styrene futures price increased, with a weakening market due to OPEC's production increase and a downward shift in the cost center [62][63] Soda Ash - The soda ash futures price increased, with little change in the spot market. The supply was high, and the demand was weak [64][66] LPG and Propylene - The LPG and propylene futures prices had small changes. The LPG market is affected by OPEC+ production increase expectations, and the propylene market's supply - demand support weakened [68][73] PVC - The PVC futures price is related to the spot price in East China. The market has high production and inventory, weak downstream demand, and increasing export policy uncertainties [80] Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - The fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil futures prices declined, with changes in trading volume, open interest, and spot prices. The market is weak, and the high - low sulfur spread is narrowing [83] Container Freight Index (European Line) - The container freight index (European Line) futures prices had increases. The freight rate is expected to decline, and the market is affected by supply, demand, and geopolitical factors [85][93][95] Staple Fiber and Bottle Chip - The staple fiber and bottle chip futures prices had different trends, with changes in trading volume, open interest, and spot prices. The short - term rebound is observed [98] Offset Printing Paper - The offset printing paper market has stable prices, with slow demand from downstream printers and a weak upward momentum [102][103] Pure Benzene - The pure benzene futures prices increased, with changes in prices and inventories affected by factors such as crude oil prices [104]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints - Palm oil has insufficient fundamental drivers, and risks of crude oil and macro - economic pullbacks should be guarded against [1] - Soybean oil is waiting for the South American sowing season and is in a state of oscillatory adjustment [1] 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs a. Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Prices**: Palm oil's closing price (day session) was 9,408 yuan/ton with a 0.43% increase, and (night session) 9,440 yuan/ton with a 0.34% increase; soybean oil's closing price (day session) was 8,456 yuan/ton with a 0.55% increase, and (night session) 8,416 yuan/ton with a - 0.47% change; rapeseed oil's closing price (day session) was 9,950 yuan/ton with a 1.04% increase, and (night session) 9,737 yuan/ton with a - 2.14% change. CBOT soybean oil's closing price was 51.20 cents/pound with a - 1.41% change [1] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: Palm oil's trading volume decreased by 10 to 3 lots, and open interest decreased by 1 to 1,225 lots; soybean oil's trading volume increased by 8 to 110 lots, and open interest decreased by 103 to 2,988 lots; rapeseed oil's trading volume increased by 42 to 50 lots, and open interest remained unchanged at 5,121 lots [1] - **Spot Prices**: Palm oil (24 - degree, Guangdong) was 9,380 yuan/ton with a 60 - yuan increase; first - grade soybean oil (Guangdong) was 8,730 yuan/ton with a 30 - yuan increase; fourth - grade imported rapeseed oil (Guangxi) was 9,790 yuan/ton with a 90 - yuan increase; Malaysian palm oil FOB was 1,105 dollars/ton with no change [1] - **Basis**: Palm oil (Guangdong) basis was - 28 yuan/ton; soybean oil (Guangdong) basis was 274 yuan/ton; rapeseed oil (Guangxi) basis was - 160 yuan/ton [1] - **Price Spreads**: The spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil futures was 292 yuan/ton; between soybean oil and palm oil futures was - 1,076 yuan/ton; palm oil 9 - 1 spread was - 118 yuan/ton; soybean oil 9 - 1 spread was 6 yuan/ton; rapeseed oil 9 - 1 spread was 132 yuan/ton [1] b. Macro and Industry News - The seasonally - adjusted non - farm payrolls in the US in August increased by 22,000, lower than the market expectation of 75,000. The non - farm payrolls in June were revised down from 14,000 to - 13,000, and in July were revised up from 73,000 to 79,000. After the revision, the total non - farm payrolls in June and July were 21,000 lower than before [2][3] - OPEC+ representatives said that OPEC+ in principle agreed to increase production again in October, with an expected increase of about 137,000 barrels per day, starting to gradually cancel the next layer of 1.66 million barrels per day of production cuts [3] - The Ministry of Commerce extended the anti - dumping investigation period for imported rapeseed from Canada until March 9, 2026 [3] c. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of palm oil is 0, and that of soybean oil is 0 [4]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - LPG is expected to experience short - term weak and volatile trends due to OPEC+ production increase expectations [1]. - Propylene is likely to operate weakly in the short term as the support from spot supply and demand weakens [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content 3.1 Fundamental Data - **Futures Prices**: PG2510 closed at 4,376 with a 0.18% daily increase and 4,368 at night with a - 0.18% decrease; PG2511 closed at 4,307 with a 0.23% daily increase and 4,292 at night with a - 0.35% decrease; PL2601 closed at 6,408 with a 0.25% daily increase and 6,370 at night with a - 0.59% decrease; PL2602 closed at 6,443 with a 0.41% daily increase and 6,406 at night with a - 0.57% decrease [2]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: For PG2510, trading volume was 65,228 (a decrease of 2210) and open interest was 65,734 (an increase of 6); for PG2511, trading volume was 16,201 (a decrease of 2153) and open interest was 39,981 (an increase of 888); for PL2601, trading volume was 2,036 (a decrease of 1138) and open interest was 9,659 (an increase of 35); for PL2602, the spread was 10 (a change of 2 compared to the previous day) [2]. - **Price Spreads**: The spread between Guangzhou domestic gas and PG10 contract was 124 (previous 82); between Guangzhou imported gas and PG10 contract was 284 (previous 222); between Shandong propylene and PL01 contract was 152 (previous 213); between East China propylene and PL01 contract was 67 (previous 183); between South China propylene and PL01 contract was 67 (previous 83) [2]. - **Industrial Chain Data**: PDH operating rate was 73.1% (previous 73.0%), MTBE operating rate was 62.2% (previous 63.5%), and alkylation operating rate was 46.8% (previous 49.0%) [2]. 3.2 Trend Intensity - LPG trend intensity is 0, and propylene trend intensity is 0. The range of trend intensity is from - 2 to 2, with - 2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [8]. 3.3 Market Information - **CP Paper Goods**: On September 5, 2025, the price of propane in October CP paper goods was 545 dollars/ton, up 3 dollars/ton from the previous trading day; the price of butane was 519 dollars/ton, up 2 dollars/ton from the previous trading day. The price of propane in November CP paper goods was 553 dollars/ton, up 3 dollars/ton from the previous trading day [9]. - **Domestic PDH Device Maintenance Plans**: Multiple companies such as Henan Huasong New Material Technology Co., Ltd., Jiangsu Yanchang Zhongran Chemical Co., Ltd. have PDH device maintenance plans, with some starting from 2023 and some in 2025, and some end - times are still undetermined [10]. - **Domestic LPG Factory Device Maintenance Plans**: Many production enterprises including Zhenghe Petrochemical, Huaxing Petrochemical have maintenance plans, with different start and end times and loss volumes [11].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The asphalt market is operating weakly, and attention should be paid to shipments in Shandong. The trend strength of asphalt is -1, indicating a bearish outlook [1][7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: On September 7, 2025, the closing price of BU2510 was 3,467 yuan/ton, down 0.03%, and the night - session closing price was 3,426 yuan/ton, down 1.18%. The closing price of BU2511 was 3,437 yuan/ton, down 0.15%, and the night - session closing price was 3,396 yuan/ton, down 1.19%. The trading volume of BU2510 was 86,667 lots, a decrease of 41,415 lots, and the open interest was 54,826 lots, a decrease of 16,035 lots. The trading volume of BU2511 was 248,029 lots, an increase of 58,519 lots, and the open interest was 241,397 lots, an increase of 3,727 lots. The total market asphalt warehouse receipts were 65,360 lots, with no change [1] - **Spread Data**: The basis (Shandong - 10) was 63 yuan/ton, a decrease of 9 yuan from the previous day; the 10 - 11 inter - period spread was 30 yuan/ton, an increase of 4 yuan; the Shandong - South China spread was 0, a decrease of 10; the East China - South China spread was 170 yuan/ton, with no change [1] - **Spot Market Data**: The Shandong wholesale price was 3,530 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan; the Yangtze River Delta wholesale price was 3,700 yuan/ton, with no change. As of September 4, the refinery operating rate was 40.22%, an increase of 6.69% from September 1; the refinery inventory rate was 26.45%, a decrease of 0.29% from September 1 [1] 3.2 Market Information - **Production**: From August 29 to September 4, 2025, the weekly total output of domestic asphalt was 526,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 27,000 tons (5.4%) and a year - on - year increase of 90,000 tons (20.6%). The cumulative output from January to September was 2.1669 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 201,400 tons (10.2%) [10] - **Inventory**: As of September 4, 2025, the total inventory of 54 domestic asphalt sample refinery warehouses was 717,000 tons, a 4.1% increase from September 1. The refinery warehouses in the East China region had obvious inventory accumulation. The total inventory of 104 domestic asphalt social warehouses was 1.709 million tons, a 0.6% decrease from September 1. The social warehouses in the Northeast region had obvious inventory reduction [10]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report focuses on the current situation of the international crude oil market, including price dynamics, market trends, and key trade information. OPEC+ plans to increase production, which may suppress the rebound of crude oil prices. The trend strength of crude oil is currently neutral [1][7][8]. 3. Section Summaries Global Benchmark Crude Oil Price Dynamics - Dubai (November): Price range is $71.52 - 71.53/bbl, with a mid - point of $71.525/bbl and a daily change of -$0.43. Asian demand weakness and OPEC+增产预期 suppress the Middle - East benchmark price [2]. - Brent (November): Price range is $67.50 - 67.52/bbl, with a mid - point of $67.51/bbl and a daily change of +$1.62. North Sea oilfield maintenance season supports the European benchmark, but high inventories limit the increase [2]. - WTI (October): Price range is $63.96 - 63.98/bbl, with a mid - point of $63.97/bbl and a daily change of +$1.32. Record - high US crude oil exports and three - year low Cushing inventories provide support [2]. - Urals (CIF Augusta): Price range is $64.45 - 64.49/bbl, with a mid - point of $64.47/bbl and a daily change of +$0.07. Russian seaborne exports have recovered, but face EU sanctions risks, and the price spread remains at a discount [2]. Product Oil Market Price and Dynamics - Gasoline (RBOB): The current cracking spread is $4.58/bbl. Despite strong demand at the end of the summer driving season, rising ethanol blending costs compress profits [3]. - Diesel (ULSD): The current cracking spread is $5.43/bbl. Global industrial activity recovery and low - sulfur marine fuel demand drive the market [3]. - Fuel Oil: The current cracking spread is -$2.52/bbl. The expectation of IMO2025 regulations leads to an overstock of high - sulfur oil inventories [3]. Cross - Regional Comparison - Brent - Dubai: The spread is $4.08 - 4.10/bbl, with a weekly change of +$0.27 and a monthly change of +$0.08. The East - West arbitrage window is close to closing, and the surplus of light oil in the Atlantic Basin suppresses the spread [4]. - WTI MEH - Brent: The spread is -$1.45/bbl, with a weekly change of -$0.18 and a monthly change of -$0.47. US shale oil production increase and European refinery autumn maintenance work together [4]. - Urals - Dubai: The spread is -$7.05/bbl, with a weekly change of +$0.25 and a monthly change of +$0.93. The narrowing discount of Russian oil reflects the adjustment of Asian buyers' procurement strategies [4]. Key Crude Oil Trade Dynamics - US GC - China: The trading volume is 590 MB/D, and the arbitrage space is -$7.89/bbl. Exhausted quotas of Chinese private refineries and high VLCC freight rates slow down procurement and suppress arbitrage [4]. - Middle East - Singapore: The trading volume is 814 MB/D, and the arbitrage space is -$2.56/bbl. Consecutive three - month increases in Saudi OSP official prices lead Asian buyers to turn to West African crude oil as a substitute [4]. - North Sea - Mediterranean: The trading volume is 254 MB/D, and the arbitrage space is $1.37/bbl. Italian refineries rush to buy light low - sulfur crude oil to meet new environmental regulations [4]. Different Oil Types Comparison - Basrah Light: API degree is 34.7, sulfur content is 2.8%, and the premium is $0.45/bbl. The narrowing premium of medium - sulfur oil reflects the reduction of complex refinery capacity [5]. - Es Sider: API degree is 37.2, sulfur content is 3.9%, and the premium is $0.55/bbl. High vanadium content increases processing costs, and European buyers demand additional discounts [5]. - Sakhalin Blend: API degree is 45.5, sulfur content is 0.6%, and the premium is $1.2/bbl. The substitution effect of Northeast Asian LPG raw materials boosts the premium of light low - sulfur crude oil [5]. Other Market News - OPEC+ announced that eight countries will adjust production by 137,000 barrels per day starting from October 2025, and will gradually increase production by 1.65 million barrels per month before August 2026 [8]. - Ukraine's drone force commander said that Ukraine attacked Russia's "Friendship" oil pipeline [8].