1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the natural rubber market fluctuated within a range due to geopolitical conflicts. The raw material prices remained firm due to the tense situation between Thailand and Cambodia, while downstream procurement was cautious, and port inventories continued to accumulate. The market is expected to continue to fluctuate within a range in the short term as there is no obvious upward or downward driving force [108]. - Suggested trading strategies include range - bound operations for RU05 within the range of 14,800 - 15,800 yuan/ton, a long - short spread strategy for the 1 - 5 contract, and continued observation for cross - variety trading [109]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry News - In November 2025, China's automobile production and sales reached 3.532 million and 3.429 million units respectively, a new monthly high. From January to November, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were close to 1.5 billion units, with exports of 2.315 million units, doubling year - on - year. The full - year automobile exports are expected to reach 7 million units [5]. - In October 2025, Malaysia's natural rubber production decreased by 22.7% year - on - year, while exports increased by 9.9% year - on - year. The domestic consumption increased by 0.7% year - on - year, with latex gloves being the main consumer [6]. - The European electric vehicle market has improved, and European automakers are adjusting their powertrain strategies, using hybrid vehicles as a transition technology while continuing to invest in electric vehicles [7]. 3.2 Market Trends - This week, both domestic and international rubber markets rebounded, with NR having the largest increase. On December 12, 2025, the closing prices of RU2605, NR2605, Singapore TSR20:2605, and Tokyo RSS3:2605 were 15,230 yuan/ton, 12,345 yuan/ton, 173 cents/kg, and 330.8 yen/kg respectively, with week - on - week increases of 1.10%, 2.45%, 1.23%, and 1.66% [10][12]. 3.3 Fundamental Data 3.3.1 Supply - Weather in Thailand: The southern part of Thailand has entered the rainy season with more rainfall than last year, while the rainy season in the northeastern part has ended with lower - than - average temperatures [40]. - Weather in China: The rainy seasons in Hainan and Yunnan have basically ended [42]. - Raw material prices: After the domestic production areas digested the sentiment of production cuts due to the end of the tapping season, the geopolitical conflict between Thailand and Cambodia affected tapping and factory production, causing raw material prices to rise after a decline [44]. - Raw material spreads: The water - cup spread in Thailand has decreased, while the spread between Hainan's glue going into the concentrated latex factory and the whole - milk factory has increased [48]. - Upstream processing profits: The rubber processing profits in Thailand have generally decreased [51]. - Export data: In October 2025, Thailand's natural rubber exports increased month - on - month, mainly driven by standard rubber and mixed rubber. Exports to China also increased significantly. Indonesia's exports decreased year - on - year and month - on - month, mainly due to a significant reduction in standard rubber exports. Vietnam's exports increased month - on - month, with latex having a relatively large increase. In November 2025, Cote d'Ivoire's rubber exports decreased month - on - month, and exports to China also decreased significantly [62][65][68][74][75]. - Import data: In October 2025, China's natural rubber imports (including mixed and composite rubber) were 5.108 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 14.27% and a year - on - year decrease of 0.89%. Imports of Thai standard rubber continued to decline, while imports of Indonesian standard and mixed rubber were at a high level year - on - year, and imports of Cote d'Ivoire standard rubber increased significantly year - on - year and month - on - month [79]. 3.3.2 Demand - Tire capacity utilization and inventory: During the week, the production of maintenance enterprises gradually resumed, driving up capacity utilization to some extent. However, the overall shipment pace was slow, and most enterprises were in a state of flexible production control. Tire inventories started to accumulate again [84]. - Tire exports and heavy - truck sales: In October 2025, semi - steel tire exports continued to decline significantly month - on - month, while full - steel tire exports decreased slightly. Heavy - truck sales increased month - on - month but at a slower pace. In November 2025, passenger car sales continued to grow, but the year - on - year and month - on - month growth rates continued to decline [89]. - Road transport turnover: In October 2025, the freight turnover of road transport decreased month - on - month, while the passenger turnover improved month - on - month [90]. 3.3.3 Inventory - Spot inventory: China's natural rubber inventory continued to accumulate, with both dark and light rubber inventories increasing. The inventory accumulation in Qingdao Port has weakened, and the general trade shipment volume has "recovered" compared to the previous period [97]. - Futures inventory: As of December 12, 2025, the natural rubber futures inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 57,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 25.17%. The 20 - number rubber futures inventory on the Shanghai International Energy Exchange was 59,600 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.87% [105].

金银周报 国泰君安期货研究所 有色及贵金属 刘雨萱投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 日期：2025年12月14日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 黄金：震荡调整；白银：美股AI压力戳破上涨泡沫 强弱分析：黄金中性、白银偏强 价格区间：950-990元/克、13700-15000元/千克 ◆ 黄金本周价格略有上涨，10月FOMC会议联储表态温和，且超预期扩表。我们认为黄金近期价格上涨强度有限，区间震荡概率更大。 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 数据来源：Wind、国泰君安期货研究所 2 ◆ 本周伦敦金回升2.45%，伦敦银回升11.02%。金银比从前周的72.2回落至66.6，10年期TIPS回升至1.93%，10年期名义利率回落至 4.19%（2年期3.52%），美元指数录得98.4。 ◆ 本周白银波动显著放大，最高沪银触及15192元/千克，COMEX白银触及65美元/盎司。本周白银的上 ...

国泰君安期货-黑色金属周报合集 国泰君安期货研究所 黑色金属团队 | 林小春 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0000526 | linxiaochun@gtht.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 李亚飞 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021184 | liyafei2@gtht.com | | 张广硕 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020198 | zhangguangshuo@gtht.com | | 金园园 | （联系人）从业资格号：F03134630 | jinyuanyuan2@gtht.com | 2025年12月14日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint CONTENTS 1、钢材观点：交投氛围转暖，钢价小幅反弹 2、铁矿周度观点：需求预期边际转弱，价格回调 3、煤焦周度观点：供需预期持续走弱，估值再度下挫 4、铁合金观点：合金原料端成本坚挺，盘面走势震荡 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 2 螺纹钢&热轧卷板周度报告 黑色分析师：李亚飞 投资咨询号 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The US soybeans have no basis for a bull market due to the expected high - yield in South America, but the downside space is limited as demand is expected to improve. Overall, the price will fluctuate with a slight upward trend, ranging from 1000 to 1200 cents per bushel [5] Summary by Relevant Categories 1. Market Price - **US Soybeans**: This week, the continuous closing price of US soybeans was 1076.75 cents per bushel, a decrease of 28.5 cents per bushel. The reasons are that China will complete the 1200 - million - ton procurement commitment by the end of February 2026 instead of the end of 2025, and the sowing speed of South American soybeans has accelerated. Next week, attention should be paid to China's procurement rhythm, South American weather, and biodiesel policy progress [7] - **US Soybean Meal**: This week, the price of US soybean meal closed at 302.5 dollars per short ton, a decrease of 2.2 dollars per short ton, pressured by the postponed procurement time of China [10] - **US Soybean Oil**: This week, the price of US soybean oil fluctuated slightly and closed at 50.07 cents per pound, a decrease of 1.29 cents per pound. The market is worried about the slowdown of US soybean and soybean oil export demand, and the bearish Malaysian monthly report and Argentina's reduction of soybean oil export tariffs also put pressure on the oil [13] - **Regional Prices**: As of December 5, the price of US Gulf soybeans was 11.81 dollars per bushel, a weekly decrease of 0.21; the price of Iowa soybeans was 10.33 dollars per bushel, a weekly decrease of 0.15. On December 12, the spot price in Mato Grosso, Brazil, rose to 117.66 reais per bag, while the spot price at Brazilian ports fell to 141.31 reais per bag [16][18][20] 2. Supply Factors - **US Drought**: The drought rate in US soybean - producing areas remained at 65%, compared with 64% last week [25] - **South American Weather**: Brazil's main soybean - producing areas will have good precipitation in the next two weeks. Mato Grosso's rainy season has returned, and precipitation will be more than the same period. The precipitation in Rio Grande do Sul is slightly less than normal, with no sign of continuous drought. Argentina's precipitation will be less than the same period in the next two weeks [27][33][35] - **Brazilian Sowing Progress**: As of the week of December 5, the sowing progress of Brazilian soybeans was 90.3%, compared with 86% last week and 94.1% last year [41] 3. Demand Factors - **US Soybean Pressing Profit**: As of December 5, the pressing profit of US soybeans was 2.45 dollars per bushel, compared with 2.5 dollars per bushel last week [44] - **Export Data**: On October 31, the weekly export volume of US soybeans was 1.0284 million tons, compared with 1.3881 million tons last week; on November 28, the weekly export inspection and quarantine volume was 0.9201 million tons, compared with 0.8087 million tons last week. The net sales this year were 1.2484 million tons, compared with 1.4497 million tons last week. The sales for the next year were 0 tons. In the week of December 5, the quantity shipped to China was 0.1198 million tons, compared with 0 tons last week [46][48][50] 4. Other Factors - **ENSO Index**: The latest ENSO (NINO3.4 anomaly index) value is - 1.103, remaining in the La Nina range [57] - **Planting Cost**: The soybean planting costs in Brazil and the US have decreased [59][61] - **CFTC Positions**: As of November 18, the net long position of soybeans was 259,400 lots, compared with 229,900 lots last week; the net short position of soybean oil was 2,300 lots, compared with 20,100 lots last week; the net long position of soybean meal was 63,400 lots, compared with 35,000 lots last week [65][67][69]

2025年12月14日 | 镍：过剩结构性转向，关注印尼政策风险 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 不锈钢：供需双弱运行，钢价低位震荡 | 2 | | 工业硅：新疆环保消息发酵，关注实际减产 | 11 | | 多晶硅：预计盘面高位震荡态势 | 11 | | 碳酸锂：基本面新增驱动有限，高位宽幅震荡 | 20 | 国泰君安期货研究周报-绿色金融与新能源 观点与策略 镍：过剩结构性转向，关注印尼政策风险 不锈钢：供需双弱运行，钢价低位震荡 张再宇 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021479 zhangzaiyu@gtht.com 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 二 〇 二 五 年 度 2025 年 12 月 14 日 报告导读： 沪镍基本面：预计镍价低位震荡运行。精炼镍边际转向供需双弱格局，耐蚀合金需求承压，前期重心 下移挤压精炼镍利润，不少企业转向硫酸镍生产，精炼镍累库斜率稍有趋缓，这也将精炼镍过剩的压力进 行结构性转向，硫酸镍与盘面溢价回归收敛。不过，总量过剩矛盾与湿法投产预期或仍然拖累镍价。远端 低成本湿法路径供应增加的预期未改，即中间 ...

2025年12月14日 国泰君安期货研究周报-农产品 观点与策略 | 棕榈油：高库存压制反弹高度，暂区间对待 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 豆油：美豆压力仍大，豆油震荡运行 | 2 | | 豆粕：低位震荡 | 8 | | 豆一：区间运行 | 8 | | 玉米：关注现货 | 14 | | 白糖：偏弱运行 | 20 | | 棉花：震荡偏强关注需求20251214 | 27 | | 生猪：冬至旺季预期落地，等待供应兑现 | 34 | | 花生：关注现货 | 40 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 二 〇 二 五 年 度 2025 年 12 月 14 日 棕榈油：高库存压制反弹高度，暂区间对待 豆油：美豆压力仍大，豆油震荡运行 李隽钰 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021380 lijunyu@gtht.com 报告导读： 上周观点及逻辑： 棕榈油： MPOB 报告落地后利空出尽反弹，但高产边际交易难言充分，高库存压制反弹高度，棕榈油 01 合约周跌 0.65%。 豆油：美豆销售进度偏慢，如果缺乏南美天气炒作则上方驱动有限，暂跟随油脂板块区 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings The document does not provide industry investment ratings. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: Nickel is expected to trade in a low - range oscillation. The structural shift in surplus and potential risks from Indonesia's policies should be noted. Stainless steel is in a state of weak supply and demand, with prices expected to oscillate at a low level. Attention should be paid to Indonesia's policy risks [4][5]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon's inventory continues to accumulate. It is recommended to short on price increases, with the next - week's price range expected to be between 8,000 - 8,800 yuan/ton. Polysilicon is expected to oscillate at a high level, with the next - week's price range estimated to be between 55,000 - 60,000 yuan/ton [32][33]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The market lacks new driving forces, and the high - level oscillation is expected to continue. The price of the futures main contract is expected to be in the range of 90,000 - 100,000 yuan/ton [58][59]. - **Palm Oil and Soybean Oil**: Palm oil is waiting for Malaysia's December production reduction to confirm the price bottom. It is recommended to operate with a light position. Soybean oil is expected to oscillate in a range, waiting for the overall stabilization of the oil and fat sector [91][93]. - **Soybean Meal and Soybean No.1**: Soybean meal is expected to oscillate at a low level, and soybean No.1 is expected to trade within a range. The prices of both are expected to oscillate next week [104][108]. - **Corn**: Attention should be paid to the spot market. The supply - demand mismatch has been marginally alleviated, and the near - end of the futures market remains relatively strong [122][127]. - **Sugar**: The international market is in a weak - expectation pattern and is expected to be sorted out at a low level. The domestic market is expected to operate weakly [148][150]. - **Cotton**: ICE cotton is expected to maintain a low - level narrow - range oscillation. Zhengzhou cotton futures are expected to be slightly stronger in oscillation, but the upside space may be limited [176][193]. - **Hogs**: Spot prices are expected to oscillate weakly, and the LH2601 contract in the futures market may face pressure [195][198]. - **Peanuts**: The spot price is stable, and the futures near - month contract has support, while the far - month contract has more uncertainties. Attention should be paid to the acquisition strategies of large oil mills [210][211]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Fundamentals**: Nickel is in a state of weak supply and demand, with the surplus pressure structurally shifted. Stainless steel has a weak supply - demand situation, with a slight surplus and limited upside space for prices [4][5]. - **Inventory**: China's refined nickel social inventory increased by 1,729 tons to 56,707 tons this week, while LME nickel inventory decreased by 84 tons to 253,032 tons. Stainless steel inventories also showed certain changes [6]. - **Market News**: There are various news events, such as Indonesia's policy adjustments, production restrictions in some projects, and changes in the Fed's interest - rate expectations [9][10][11]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Price Trends**: Industrial silicon's futures price first declined and then rose, with the spot price falling. Polysilicon's futures price opened low and closed high, with the spot price stable [28]. - **Supply - Demand Fundamentals**: Industrial silicon's supply has a certain increase in some regions but a decrease in the southwest. The demand is weak. Polysilicon's supply has a slight decrease in the short - term, and the demand has a certain change in silicon wafer production [29][30]. - **Inventory**: Industrial silicon's social and factory inventories have increased, and polysilicon's factory inventory has also increased [29][30]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price Trends**: Futures and spot prices have increased, and the basis has changed [56]. - **Supply - Demand Fundamentals**: The supply has a certain change in overseas shipments and domestic production, and the demand has a decline in downstream procurement willingness. The inventory is decreasing, but the rate has slowed down [57]. Palm Oil and Soybean Oil - **Last Week's Views**: Palm oil rebounded after the MPOB report, but the high - inventory situation restricted the upside. Soybean oil lacked upward driving forces and oscillated within a range [90]. - **This Week's Views**: Palm oil's high production and low demand have pushed up Malaysia's December inventory. It needs to confirm the production reduction in December to find the price bottom. Soybean oil is affected by the slow sales progress of US soybeans and is expected to oscillate [91][93]. Soybean Meal and Soybean No.1 - **Last Week's Market**: US soybean prices declined, and domestic soybean meal prices first fell and then rose, while soybean No.1 prices were relatively strong [104]. - **Next - Week's Outlook**: Both are expected to oscillate, with soybean meal affected by US soybean prices and China's procurement, and soybean No.1 affected by spot prices and market news [104][108]. Corn - **Market Review**: Spot prices slightly declined, and futures prices first declined and then rebounded. The basis has strengthened [122][123]. - **Market Outlook**: CBOT corn prices declined, wheat prices fell, and the import corn auction restarted. Corn starch inventory decreased, and attention should be paid to the spot market [124][127]. Sugar - **This Week's Market Review**: International sugar prices increased slightly, and domestic sugar prices declined. The net long position of funds increased slightly [148][149]. - **Next - Week's Market Outlook**: The international market is expected to be sorted out at a low level, and the domestic market is expected to operate weakly [150]. Cotton - **Market Situation**: ICE cotton is in a low - level narrow - range oscillation, and domestic cotton futures and spot prices are slightly stronger. The basis is relatively strong, and the increase in cotton warehouse receipts restricts the upside [176]. - **International and Domestic Fundamentals**: International cotton has various changes in production, consumption, and exports in different countries. Domestic cotton has a certain increase in prices, and the downstream situation is slightly worse [180][188]. Hogs - **This Week's Market Review**: Spot prices oscillated and adjusted, and futures prices were slightly stronger in oscillation. The basis has changed [195][196]. - **Next - Week's Market Outlook**: Spot prices are expected to oscillate weakly, and futures prices may face pressure [197][198]. Peanuts - **Market Review**: Spot prices were stable, and futures prices oscillated [210]. - **Market Outlook**: The spot price has regional differentiation, and the futures near - month contract has support, while the far - month contract has more uncertainties [211].

国泰君安期货·能源化工 甲醇周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所 黄天圆 投资咨询从业资格号： Z0018016 杨鈜汉 投资咨询从业资格号： Z0021541 日期：2025年12月14日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 综述：震荡反弹 01 资料来源：隆众资讯，钢联，国泰君安期货研究 本周甲醇总结：震荡反弹 供应 • 本周(20251205-1211)中国甲醇产量为2039705吨，较上周增加16240吨，装置产能利用率为89.81%，环比涨0.81%。本周国内甲醇恢复涉及产能产出量多于 检修、减产涉及产能损失量，导致本周产能利用率上涨。下周，中国甲醇产量及产能利用率周数据预计：产量205.54万吨左右，产能利用率90.50%左右， 较本期上涨。下周计划检修及减产涉及产能少于计划恢复涉及产能，因此或将导致产能利用率上涨，产量增加。（隆众资讯） 需求 • 烯烃：联泓格润MTO装置投产负荷陆续提升，不过叠加前期停车检修装置，行业周均开工仍有降低。 • 传统下游：二甲醚下周，心连心装置存停车预期，其他装置暂无停开车预期，预计 ...

国泰君安期货·能源化工 C3产业链周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所 日期：2025年12月14日 陈鑫超 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020238 赵书岑（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03147780 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint CONTENT 总结 01 LPG部分 02 丙烯部分 03 价格&价差 供应 需求&库存 价格&价差 平衡表 供应 需求 下游库存 2 本周LPG观点：短期低位震荡，中长期仍承压 供应 国产方面，液化气总商品量52.3万吨，较上周环比增加1.1%；其中，民用气商品量21.9万吨（+3.0%），醚后商品量17.1万吨（-1.2%）；当前， 国内民用气商品量低位修复至24年同期水平，而醚后碳四商品量高位回落至24年同期水平。成本方面，油价呈下跌趋势；国际市场供应方面， 美国丙烷库存环比回落，中东供应维持偏紧；需求方面，化工刚需支撑叠加燃烧旺季来临给到相对坚挺的支撑，但当前化工维持亏损，市场担 忧未来前景。隆众口径中国国际船期到港量60.6万吨，以山东为主；下周计划到船量仍然较多且个别港口较集中， ...

烧碱：短期反弹，后期仍有压力 PVC：低位震荡 国泰君安期货研究所·陈嘉昕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020481 日期：2025年12月14日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint CONTENTS 观点综述 01 烧碱价格及价差 02 烧碱供应 03 烧碱需求 04 PVC价格及价差 05 PVC供需 06 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 2 观点综述 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 1 烧碱观点：短期反弹，后期仍有压力 供应 中国20万吨及以上烧碱样本企业产能平均利用率为86.2%，较上周环比+0.2%。分区域来看，华北、华东有前期负荷不满装置提负，负荷 小幅上升，华北+0.9%至82.1%，其中山东+0.2%至93.0%，华东+1.1%至77.9%。西南、华中负荷下滑，西南因枯水期电价上涨导致利润 亏损减产，负荷下滑明显 ，西南-12.3%至84.3%，华中-0.5%至82.7%。其它大区基本稳定。 需求 氧化铝方面，由于高 ...