Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core View of the Report Silicon ferroalloy and manganese ferroalloy are experiencing wide - amplitude fluctuations driven by sector sentiment [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing prices of silicon ferroalloy 2511 and 2601 are 5680 and 5662 respectively, with changes of 38 and 46 compared to the previous trading day. The closing prices of manganese ferroalloy 2511 and 2601 are 5882 and 5898 respectively, with changes of 62 and 66 compared to the previous trading day. The trading volumes and open interests of different contracts are also provided [1]. - **Spot Data**: The price of silicon ferroalloy FeSi75 - B in Inner Mongolia is 5300 yuan/ton, silicon manganese FeMn65Si17 in Inner Mongolia is 5750 yuan/ton, manganese ore Mn44 block is 39.5 yuan/ton - degree, and semi - coke small material in Shenmu is 650 yuan/ton [1]. - **Spread Data**: The silicon ferroalloy spot - 11 futures spread is - 380 yuan/ton, and the manganese ferroalloy spot - 01 futures spread is - 148 yuan/ton. The silicon ferroalloy 2511 - 2601 spread is 18 yuan/ton, and the manganese ferroalloy 2511 - 2601 spread is - 16 yuan/ton. The manganese ferroalloy 2511 - silicon ferroalloy 2511 spread is 202 yuan/ton, and the manganese ferroalloy 2601 - silicon ferroalloy 2601 spread is 236 yuan/ton [1]. Macro and Industry News - **Silicon Ferroalloy and Manganese Ferroalloy Price News**: On August 25, the price ranges of 72 and 75 silicon ferroalloy in different regions are provided, and the FOB prices of 72 and 75 silicon ferroalloy are 1030 - 1050 and 1100 - 1130 US dollars/ton respectively. The northern and southern prices of silicon manganese 6517 are also reported [2]. - **Manganese Ore Inventory News**: As of August 22, the manganese ore inventory in Tianjin Port is 361.28 million tons, a decrease of 6.36 million tons compared to the previous period; the inventory in Qinzhou Port is 77.25 million tons, an increase of 1.64 million tons; the inventory in Caofeidian Port is 0; the inventory in Fangchenggang is 4 million tons, a decrease of 1 million tons. The total manganese ore inventory is 442.53 million tons, a decrease of 5.72 million tons [2]. Trend Intensity The trend intensity of silicon ferroalloy is 0, and that of manganese ferroalloy is 0, indicating a neutral view [3].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The market sentiment of rebar and hot-rolled coil is volatile, with wide fluctuations [2][3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Data - **Futures Data**: The closing prices of RB2510 and HC2510 were 3,138 yuan/ton and 3,389 yuan/ton respectively, with daily increases of 31 yuan/ton, and daily increase rates of 0.71% and 0.92% respectively. The trading volumes were 1,200,313 lots (RB2510) and 508,110 lots (HC2510), and the open interests were 1,347,830 lots (RB2510) and 938,245 lots (HC2510), with changes of -63,773 lots and -59,902 lots respectively [3]. - **Spot Price Data**: The spot prices of rebar and hot-rolled coil in various regions increased to varying degrees, with the largest increase of 30 yuan/ton. The price of Tangshan billet was 3,050 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton [3]. - **Basis and Spread Data**: The basis of RB2510 and HC2510 increased by 11 yuan/ton and 2 yuan/ton respectively. The spreads of RB2510 - RB2601 and HC2601 - RB2601 decreased by 10 yuan/ton and 4 yuan/ton respectively, while the spreads of HC2510 - HC2601, HC2510 - RB2510 increased by 3 yuan/ton and 9 yuan/ton respectively. The spot coil - rebar spread decreased by 1 yuan/ton [3]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Steel Union Weekly Data (August 21)**: Rebar production decreased by 5.8 tons, hot-rolled coil production increased by 9.65 tons, and the total production of five major steel products increased by 6.43 tons. Rebar inventory increased by 19.85 tons, hot-rolled coil inventory increased by 3.97 tons, and the total inventory of five major steel products increased by 25.07 tons. Rebar apparent demand increased by 4.86 tons, hot-rolled coil apparent demand increased by 6.52 tons, and the total apparent demand of five major steel products increased by 21.97 tons [4]. - **Mid - August 2025 Data of Key Steel Enterprises**: The average daily production of crude steel, pig iron, and steel products increased by 2.0%, 0.5%, and 2.2% respectively compared with the previous period. The steel inventory of key enterprises increased by 4.0% compared with the previous ten - day period, by 26.7% compared with the beginning of the year, by 0.1% compared with the same ten - day period of last month, decreased by 4.7% compared with the same ten - day period of last year, and decreased by 5.8% compared with the same ten - day period of the year before last [4][5]. - **Other Data**: The Manufacturing Supply Index (MMSI) in July was 146.13, a month - on - month decrease of 4.83%. From January to July, the national general public budget revenue was 13,583.9 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.1% [5]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of rebar and hot-rolled coil is 0, indicating a neutral trend [5].

商 品 研 究 2025 年 8 月 26 日 鸡蛋：远端情绪偏弱 吴昊 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018592 wuhao8@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 趋势强度：0 注：趋势强度取值范围为【-2,2】区间整数。强弱程度分类如下：弱、偏弱、中性、偏强、强，-2 表示最看空，2 表示最看多。 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 鸡蛋基本面数据 | | 合 约 | 收盘价 | 日涨跌 （%） | 成交变动 | 持仓变动 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期 货 | 鸡蛋2509 | 2,951 | 1.62 | -39,141 | -9,082 | | | 鸡蛋2601 | 3,383 | -1.34 | 1,755 | 10,066 | | | | | 最新日 | 前一日 | | | 价 差 | 鸡蛋9-10价差 | | -70 | -113 | | | | 鸡蛋9-1价差 | | -432 | -514 | | | | | | 最新日 | 前一日 | | | | 辽宁现货价格 | | 3.10 | 3.20 | | | | 河北现货价格 | | 2.6 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - For palm oil, there is no new fundamental driver, and investors are advised to wait for a price pullback to initiate long positions [1]. - For soybean oil, the trading sentiment related to the potential soybean shortage in the fourth quarter has eased, and the price is expected to fluctuate within a high - level range [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: - Palm oil主力: Closing price (day session) was 9,488 yuan/ton with a - 0.23% change; (night session) 9,542 yuan/ton with a 0.57% change. Trading volume was 36,525 lots, a decrease of 12,233 lots, and open interest was 42,108 lots, a decrease of 13,283 lots [1]. - Soybean oil主力: Closing price (day session) was 8,536 yuan/ton with a 0.52% change; (night session) 8,514 yuan/ton with a - 0.26% change. Trading volume was 35,235 lots, an increase of 1,154 lots, and open interest was 52,615 lots, a decrease of 18,859 lots [1]. - Rapeseed oil主力: Closing price (day session) was 9,998 yuan/ton with a 0.03% change; (night session) 9,918 yuan/ton with a - 0.80% change. Trading volume was 14,288 lots, a decrease of 1,353 lots, and open interest was 24,389 lots, a decrease of 4,695 lots [1]. - Malaysian palm oil主力: Closing price was 4,493 ringgit/ton with a - 0.84% change; (night session) 4,482 ringgit/ton with a - 0.22% change [1]. - CBOT soybean oil主力: Closing price was 54.84 cents/pound with a - 0.87% change [1]. - **Spot Data**: - 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong: Spot price was 9,620 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 80 yuan/ton [1]. - First - grade soybean oil in Guangdong: Spot price was 8,720 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 50 yuan/ton [1]. - Fourth - grade imported rapeseed oil in Guangxi: Spot price was 9,910 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 30 yuan/ton [1]. - Malaysian palm oil FOB offshore price (continuous contract): Spot price was 1,115 dollars/ton, with a price increase of 15 dollars/ton [1]. - **Basis Data**: - Palm oil in Guangdong: Basis was 132 yuan/ton [1]. - Soybean oil in Guangdong: Basis was 184 yuan/ton [1]. - Rapeseed oil in Guangxi: Basis was - 88 yuan/ton [1]. - **Spread Data**: - Rapeseed - palm oil futures主力 spread: 309 yuan/ton, compared to 298 yuan/ton two days ago [1]. - Soybean - palm oil futures主力 spread: - 1,094 yuan/ton, compared to - 1,134 yuan/ton two days ago [1]. - Palm oil 9 - 1 spread: - 94 yuan/ton, compared to - 82 yuan/ton two days ago [1]. - Soybean oil 9 - 1 spread: 48 yuan/ton, compared to 34 yuan/ton two days ago [1]. - Rapeseed oil 9 - 1 spread: 107 yuan/ton, compared to 105 yuan/ton two days ago [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - ITS reported that Malaysia's palm oil exports from August 1 - 25, 2025, were 1,141,661 tons, a 10.9% increase compared to the same period last month [2]. - Indonesia urged the EU to immediately cancel the anti - subsidy tax on imported biodiesel after the WTO supported several key claims in Indonesia's complaint. Indonesia and the EU are closer to signing a free - trade agreement after a political agreement in July [4]. - USDA's crop growth report showed that as of August 24, 2025, the good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans was 69%, higher than the market expectation of 67%, and the pod - setting rate was 89% [4]. - Secex data indicated that Brazil exported 7,257,837.70 tons of soybeans in the first four weeks of August, with an average daily export volume of 453,614.86 tons, a 24% increase compared to the average daily export volume in August last year [4]. - Canada's rapeseed exports in the week ending August 17 decreased by 64.34% to 90,800 tons. From August 1 to August 17, 2025, exports were 355,900 tons, a 46.16% decrease compared to the same period last year. As of August 17, the commercial inventory was 793,400 tons [5]. - In July 2025, Canada's rapeseed crushing volume was 968,515 tons, a 13.13% increase from the previous month and a 3.65% decrease from the same period last year. The rapeseed oil production was 408,898 tons, a 12.15% increase from the previous month and a 5.89% decrease from the same period last year. The rapeseed meal production was 571,012 tons, a 12.62% increase from the previous month and a 1.42% decrease from the same period last year [5]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - Palm oil trend intensity was 0, and soybean oil trend intensity was also 0, indicating a neutral outlook [6].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The upward trend of caustic soda in the spot market is not over, but the time for a strong rally has not yet arrived. The core lies in the concentrated stockpiling in the alumina and export sectors. Short - term warehouse receipt factors may lead to a phased correction, but there is no need to be overly pessimistic about Zhejiang warehouse receipts [4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - The futures price of the 11 - contract is 2732, the price of the cheapest deliverable 32% caustic soda in Shandong is 860, the Shandong spot 32% caustic soda converted to the futures price is 2688, and the basis is - 45 [3] - Taking Shandong as the benchmark, the purchase price of 32% caustic soda by major downstream enterprises in Shandong over the weekend was raised by 15 yuan to 815 yuan. Before that, small - scale buyers in the province had already started to raise prices, and caustic soda plants slightly followed suit with a 10 - yuan increase over the weekend. Currently, the short - term inventory of liquid caustic soda in the province remains low, and attention should be focused on changes in the delivery volume to major downstream enterprises [3] Market Condition Analysis - The core driver of the current caustic soda market is the continuous expansion of demand. Non - aluminum demand is expected to improve during the peak season. In Guangxi, there are expectations of 3.6 million tons of alumina production capacity to be put into operation by the end of this year. If the tank - filling and stockpiling go smoothly, the demand is expected to start in October. The caustic soda supply in Guangxi is tight, and most of the caustic soda for tank - filling needs to be purchased from outside. With the flake - liquid caustic soda price spread at a high level this year, the subsequent alumina stockpiling will drive the circulation of domestic 50% caustic soda. If the flake - liquid caustic soda price spread remains strong and the 50 - 32% caustic soda price spread widens, caustic soda will face a continuous positive feedback, and the upward driving force will be stronger than the current situation [4] - The 9.3 military parade affects caustic soda transportation. Recently, the delivery volume of caustic soda to an alumina plant in Shandong has been continuously low, and its purchase price was further raised this weekend. Today, the delivery volume to major downstream enterprises is still lower than the daily consumption and has decreased compared to the previous period [4] - In terms of exports, the support is still strong. The export direction has expanded significantly year - on - year this year, but the stockpiling rhythm will affect the domestic caustic soda price. On the supply side, the weakness of chlorine - consuming downstream industries such as PVC will limit the substantial expansion of the overall industry profit [4] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of caustic soda is 0, with the value range of trend intensity being an integer within the [- 2, 2] interval. The strength levels are classified as weak, relatively weak, neutral, relatively strong, and strong, where - 2 represents the most bearish and 2 represents the most bullish [5][6]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information provided Group 2: Report's Core View - The spot performance of live pigs is below expectations, and it is recommended to sell short on rallies [1] - The trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral view [3] - In August, the planned slaughter volume of large - scale farms increases, retail farmers are forced to hold pigs, demand growth is limited, and the market supply is difficult to digest. The spot performance has repeatedly fallen short of expectations. The policy of state reserve purchases has been implemented, but supply pressure usually requires multiple rounds of purchases to ease. The September contract is still at a premium to the warehouse - receipt cost, and the industry's willingness to deliver is increasing. The price premium correction continues. The purchase sentiment for piglets has declined, and the price decline has accelerated, corresponding to a decrease in the slaughter cost in March. Attention should be paid to the downward - moving driver of the far - end price center, and stop - loss and take - profit should be noted. The short - term support level for the LH2509 contract is 13,000 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 14,000 yuan/ton [4] Group 3: Summary According to Related Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Spot Prices**: Henan's live - pig spot price is 13,780 yuan/ton with a year - on - year change of 0; Sichuan's is 13,550 yuan/ton with a year - on - year change of 0; Guangdong's is 15,140 yuan/ton with a year - on - year decrease of 150 yuan/ton [2] - **Futures Prices**: The price of the live - pig 2509 contract is 13,795 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 35; the 2511 contract is 13,910 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 70; the 2601 contract is 14,240 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 95 [2] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the live - pig 2509 contract is 1,861 lots, a decrease of 478 from the previous day, and the open interest is 9,733 lots, a decrease of 1,090 from the previous day; the 2511 contract has a trading volume of 29,558 lots, a decrease of 7,223, and an open interest of 70,029 lots, a decrease of 3,231; the 2601 contract has a trading volume of 11,414 lots, a decrease of 917, and an open interest of 48,013 lots, a decrease of 174 [2] - **Price Spreads**: The basis of the live - pig 2509 contract is - 15 yuan/ton, a year - on - year decrease of 35; the 2511 contract's basis is - 130 yuan/ton, a year - on - year decrease of 70; the 2601 contract's basis is - 460 yuan/ton, a year - on - year decrease of 95; the 9 - 11 spread is - 115 yuan/ton, a year - on - year decrease of 35; the 11 - 1 spread is - 330 yuan/ton, a year - on - year decrease of 25 [2] 2. Trend Strength - The trend strength is 0, with the value range being integers in the [-2, 2] interval. The strength levels are classified as weak, moderately weak, neutral, moderately strong, and strong, where -2 indicates the most bearish view and 2 indicates the most bullish view [3] 3. Market Logic - In August, the planned slaughter volume of large - scale farms increases, retail farmers are forced to hold pigs, demand growth is limited, and the market supply is difficult to digest. The spot performance has repeatedly fallen short of expectations. The policy of state reserve purchases has been implemented, but supply pressure usually requires multiple rounds of purchases to ease. The September contract is still at a premium to the warehouse - receipt cost, and the industry's willingness to deliver is increasing. The price premium correction continues. The purchase sentiment for piglets has declined, and the price decline has accelerated, corresponding to a decrease in the slaughter cost in March. Attention should be paid to the downward - moving driver of the far - end price center, and stop - loss and take - profit should be noted. The short - term support level for the LH2509 contract is 13,000 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 14,000 yuan/ton [4]

Group 1: Report Title and Core View - The report is titled "Carbonate Lithium: Limited Drivers, Range-bound Fluctuations Likely to Continue" with a core view that the driving forces for carbonate lithium are limited and range-bound fluctuations may continue [1] Group 2: Fundamental Data Futures Contracts - For the 2509 contract, the closing price was 79,580, the trading volume was 15,885, and the open interest was 44,710. Compared to T - 1, the closing price increased by 400, the trading volume decreased by 7,290, and the open interest decreased by 6,374 [2] - For the 2511 contract, the closing price was 79,380, the trading volume was 626,916, and the open interest was 368,667. Compared to T - 1, the closing price increased by 420, the trading volume decreased by 305,759, and the open interest increased by 6,413 [2] Other Data - The warehouse receipt volume was 25,630, up 640 from T - 1 [2] - The spot - 2509 spread was 2,920, down 1,800 from T - 1; the spot - 2511 spread was 3,120, down 1,820 from T - 1 [2] - The 2509 - 2511 basis was 200, down 20 from T - 1; the electric carbon - industrial carbon spread was 2,300, unchanged from T - 1 [2] - The spot - CIF spread was 13,486, down 1,122 from T - 1 [2] Raw Materials and Lithium Salts - Lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was priced at 925, down 9 from T - 1 [2] - Lithium mica (2.0% - 2.5%) was priced at 1,995, down 60 from T - 1 [2] - Battery - grade carbonate lithium was priced at 82,500, down 1,400 from T - 1; industrial - grade carbonate lithium was priced at 80,200, down 1,400 from T - 1 [2] Industry Chain - Related Products - Prices of various products such as battery - grade lithium hydroxide, lithium iron phosphate, ternary materials, lithium hexafluorophosphate, and electrolytes also showed different changes compared to T - 1 [2] Group 3: Macro and Industry News - SMM's battery - grade carbonate lithium index price was 82,519 yuan/ton, down 1,406 yuan/ton from the previous working day. The average price of battery - grade carbonate lithium was 82,500 yuan/ton, down 1,400 yuan/ton; the average price of industrial - grade carbonate lithium was 80,200 yuan/ton, down 1,400 yuan/ton [3] - Ganfeng Lithium (002460.SZ) reported that its first - half revenue was 8.376 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 12.65%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was - 531 million yuan, compared with a loss of 760 million yuan in the same period last year. The company completed the development of a 304Ah square energy - storage solid - state battery and plans to launch 314Ah and 392Ah solid - state batteries by the end of this year [3][4] Group 4: Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of carbonate lithium is 0, indicating a neutral view, with the value range being integers in the [-2, 2] interval [4]

贺晓勤 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0017709 hexiaoqin024367@gtjas.com 钱嘉寅（联系人） 从业资格号：F03124480 Qianjiayin028310@gtjas.com 2025 年 08 月 26 日 短纤：估值偏高，高位震荡 瓶片：估值偏高，高位震荡 短纤趋势强度：0；瓶片趋势强度：0(仅指报告日的日盘主力合约期价波动情况） 注：趋势强度取值范围为【-2,2】区间整数。强弱程度分类如下：弱、偏弱、中性、偏强、强，-2 表示 最看空，2 表示最看多。 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 【基本面跟踪】 | | | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 短纤2509 | ୧486 | ୧୧୦୧ | -20 | PF09-10 | -110 | -108 | -2 | | PF | 短纤2510 | ୧୧୨୧ | 6614 | -18 | PF10-11 | 2 | 30 | -28 | | | 短纤2511 | 6594 | 6584 ...

2025 年 8 月 26 日 沥青：裂解续弱 王涵西 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0019174 wanghanxi@gtht.com 商 品 研 究 【基本面跟踪】 表 1：沥青基本面数据 | | 项目 | 单位 | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨跌 | 昨夜夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | BU2509 | 元/吨 | 3,545 | 0.71% | 3,549 | 0.11% | | | BU2510 | 元/吨 | 3,512 | 0.83% | 3,528 | 0.46% | | 期货 | | | 昨日成交 | 成交变动 | 昨日持仓 | 持仓变动 | | | BU2509 | 手 | 5,925 | (240) | 15,517 | (2,366) | | | BU2510 | 手 | 169,612 | 30,160 | 191,301 | (17,115) | | | | | 昨日仓单 | 仓单变化 | | | | | 沥青全市场 | 手 | 72650 | 0 | | | | | | | 昨日价差 | 前日价差 | ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2) Core View of the Report - The report focuses on the cotton market, tracking its fundamentals and presenting macro and industry news. It mentions that the cotton market is influenced by factors such as new crop conditions, external market sentiment, and the strength of the US dollar. The trend strength of cotton is rated as neutral [1][3][5] 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: CF2601 closed at 14,120 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.64% and a night - session increase of 0.18%. CY2511 closed at 20,165 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.52% and a night - session increase of 0.02%. ICE US cotton 12 closed at 67.38 cents/pound, down 0.91%. Trading volume and open interest of CF2601 increased, while those of CY2511 showed different trends. The number of Zhengzhou cotton and cotton yarn warehouse receipts decreased, and the effective forecast for cotton yarn increased [1] - **Spot Data**: The prices of North and South Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton increased, while the prices in Shandong and Hebei decreased slightly. The 3128B index decreased by 0.05%. The international cotton index M increased by 0.75%. The price of pure cotton combed yarn 32S increased by 0.10%, and the arrival price decreased by 0.73% [1] - **Spread Data**: The CF9 - 1 spread was - 320 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton compared to the previous day. The spread between North Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton and CF509 was 1,240 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [1] Macro and Industry News - **Domestic Cotton Spot**: Cotton spot trading remained stable, with textile enterprises mainly making rigid - demand purchases. Different regions and grades of cotton had different sales basis spreads [2] - **Domestic Cotton Textile Enterprises**: The pure cotton yarn market maintained trading, with better sales of regular yarns and some increase in the sales of low - count yarns below C32S. Textile enterprises were still limiting production, and market confidence was generally weak. The all - cotton grey fabric market had little change in trading atmosphere, with flat sales [2] - **US Cotton**: ICE cotton futures fell nearly 1% due to the strengthening of the US dollar and the decline of other agricultural products [3] Trend Strength - The trend strength of cotton is 0, indicating a neutral rating on a scale from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [5]