Group 1: Investment Ratings - Industry investment ratings for industrial silicon: Go short at high prices [1] - Industry investment ratings for polysilicon: Range-bound trading, pay attention to market information [2] Group 2: Core Views - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of the fundamentals of industrial silicon and polysilicon, including futures market data, basis, price, profit, inventory, and raw material costs. It also presents macro and industry news and trend strength indicators [2][3][4] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market Data**: Si2511's closing price was 8,675 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan from T - 1; PS2511's closing price was 51,405 yuan/ton, down 125 yuan from T - 1 [2] - **Basis**: Industrial silicon's spot premium (against East China Si5530) was +710 yuan/ton, up 170 yuan from T - 1; polysilicon's spot premium (against N - type re - investment) was - 2,580 yuan/ton, down 175 yuan from T - 1 [2] - **Price**: Xinjiang 99 - silicon was 8,650 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan from T - 1; polysilicon - N - type re - investment material was 49,000 yuan/ton, unchanged from T - 1 [2] - **Profit**: Silicon factory profit (Xinjiang new standard 553) was - 2,626 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan from T - 1; polysilicon enterprise profit was - 15.8 yuan/kg, up 0.3 yuan from T - 1 [2] - **Inventory**: Industrial silicon's social inventory (including warehouse receipt inventory) was 54.3 million tons, with a decrease of 0.2 million tons compared to T - 5; polysilicon's factory inventory was 24.9 million tons, with an increase of 0.7 million tons compared to T - 5 [2] - **Raw Material Costs**: Xinjiang silicon ore was 340 yuan/ton, unchanged; Ningxia washed coal was 1,000 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan from T - 5 [2] 2. Macro and Industry News - Huaneng Energy Transportation Industry Holding Co., Ltd. issued a framework agreement procurement for China Huaneng Group Co., Ltd.'s 2025 photovoltaic modules. The total procurement scale is 6GW, divided into 4 bid sections based on component conversion efficiency and size, with a minimum efficiency requirement of over 22.3% and a maximum of over 23.8%. The agreement is valid from the date of issue until March 31, 2026 [3] 3. Trend Strength - Industrial silicon trend strength: 0; polysilicon trend strength: 0. The trend strength ranges from - 2 to 2, with - 2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [4]

2025年08月26日 商 品 研 究 期货研究 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-农产品 观点与策略 | 棕榈油：基本面暂无新驱动，等待回调布多 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 豆油：四季度缺豆交易暂缓，高位震荡整理 | 2 | | 豆粕：隔夜美豆收跌，连粕或调整震荡 | 4 | | 豆一：偏弱震荡 | 4 | | 玉米：震荡运行 | 6 | | 白糖：窄幅整理 | 7 | | 棉花：关注新作情况和外部市场情绪影响 | 8 | | 鸡蛋：远端情绪偏弱 | 10 | | 生猪：现货表现不及预期，逢高做空 | 11 | | 花生：关注新花生上市 | 12 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 2025 年 8 月 26 日 棕榈油：基本面暂无新驱动，等待回调布多 | | 棕榈油主力 | 单 位 元/吨 | 收盘价(日 盘） 9,488 | 涨跌幅 -0.23% | 收盘价 （夜 盘） 9,542 | 涨跌幅 0.57% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 豆油主力 | 元/吨 | | 0.52% | | ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Nickel is expected to trade in a narrow range [2][4]. - Stainless steel is likely to experience a short - term low - level oscillation [2][4]. - Lithium carbonate may continue to trade in a range due to limited drivers [2][10]. - For industrial silicon, the strategy is to short at high prices [2][14]. - Polysilicon is expected to trade in a range, and market information should be closely monitored [2][15]. 3. Summary by Commodity Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 120,310, up 700 from T - 1. The stainless - steel main contract closed at 12,880, up 130 from T - 1. Other data such as trading volume, import prices, and spreads also showed various changes [4]. - **Macro and Industry News**: There were issues like potential export restrictions from Canada, new production in Indonesia, environmental violations in an Indonesian industrial park, and production cuts in some Indonesian nickel - iron plants [4][5][6]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity for both nickel and stainless steel is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [9]. Lithium Carbonate - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the 2509 contract was 79,580, up 400 from T - 1. Other data related to trading volume,持仓量, and prices of lithium - related products also had corresponding changes [11]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price decreased. Ganfeng Lithium reported financial results affected by the market, but also made progress in battery development [12][13]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity for lithium carbonate is 0, suggesting a neutral view [13]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Fundamental Data**: The Si2511 contract closed at 8,675, down 70 from T - 1. Data on trading volume,持仓量, prices, profits, and inventories of industrial silicon and polysilicon showed different trends [15]. - **Macro and Industry News**: There was a large - scale photovoltaic component procurement tender [16]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity for both industrial silicon and polysilicon is 0, indicating a neutral stance [17].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Iron ore: The macro risk appetite has not significantly declined, and there is still support [2][5]. - Rebar and hot - rolled coil: Market sentiment is fluctuating, and prices are in wide - range oscillations [2][9][10]. - Ferrosilicon and silicomanganese: Driven by sector sentiment, prices are in wide - range oscillations [2][13]. - Coke and coking coal: Prices are in wide - range oscillations [2][16]. - Logs: Prices are fluctuating repeatedly [2][18]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Iron Ore - **Fundamental data**: The futures price closed at 787.0 yuan/ton, up 17.0 yuan/ton or 2.21%. The I2601 contract had a position of 464,830 lots, an increase of 12,205 lots. Among spot prices, imported ore prices generally rose by 13 yuan/ton, while domestic ore prices in some areas decreased by 5 yuan/ton. The basis and spreads showed certain changes [6]. - **Macro and industry news**: Shanghai issued the "Six Measures for the Property Market", involving six adjustments such as reducing purchase restrictions, housing provident funds, housing credit, and property tax [6]. - **Trend strength**: The trend strength of iron ore is 1 [6]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Fundamental data**: The RB2510 contract of rebar closed at 3,138 yuan/ton, up 22 yuan/ton or 0.71%, with a trading volume of 1,200,313 lots and a position of 1,347,830 lots, a decrease of 63,773 lots. The HC2510 contract of hot - rolled coil closed at 3,389 yuan/ton, up 31 yuan/ton or 0.92%. Spot prices in various regions generally increased. The basis and spreads also changed [10]. - **Macro and industry news**: On August 21, steel output, inventory, and apparent demand data showed different trends. In mid - August 2025, the output and inventory of key steel enterprises changed. The manufacturing supply index in July decreased. The national general public budget revenue from January to July increased slightly [11][12]. - **Trend strength**: The trend strength of rebar is 0, and that of hot - rolled coil is 0 [12]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Fundamental data**: Futures prices of different contracts of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese had varying increases. Spot prices of related products were provided. The basis, near - far month spreads, and cross - variety spreads showed certain changes [13]. - **Macro and industry news**: On August 25, the prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese in different regions were reported. As of August 22, the manganese ore inventory in ports changed [14]. - **Trend strength**: The trend strength of ferrosilicon is 0, and that of silicomanganese is 0 [15]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Fundamental data**: The JM2601 contract of coking coal closed at 1,215.5 yuan/ton, up 53.5 yuan/ton or 4.6%. The J2601 contract of coke closed at 1,736 yuan/ton, up 57.5 yuan/ton or 3.4%. Spot prices of coking coal and coke in some areas remained unchanged, while others changed. The basis and spreads also changed [16]. - **Macro and industry news**: Shanghai issued the "Six Measures for the Property Market", involving six adjustments such as reducing purchase restrictions, housing provident funds, housing credit, and property tax [16]. - **Trend strength**: The trend strength of coke is 0, and that of coking coal is 0 [17]. Logs - **Fundamental data**: The closing prices, trading volumes, and positions of different contracts of logs showed different trends. Spot prices of various types of logs in different regions remained mostly unchanged. The basis and spreads also had certain changes [19]. - **Macro and industry news**: Shanghai issued the "Six Measures for the Property Market", involving six adjustments such as reducing purchase restrictions, housing provident funds, housing credit, and property tax [21]. - **Trend strength**: The trend strength of logs is 1 [21].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry - wide investment ratings are provided in the report 2. Core Views of the Report - The report offers short - term and medium - term trend analyses for various energy and chemical futures, including PX, PTA, MEG, etc. It also takes into account factors such as supply - demand balance, device operations, and market sentiment [2][9][10] 3. Summaries Based on Relevant Catalogs PX, PTA, MEG - **PX**: Supply - demand is in tight balance, trend is strong, and positive spreads are recommended. The restart of some PX devices is postponed, and with the commissioning of new PTA devices, short - term supply is tight. Polyester demand is gradually recovering [2][6][9] - **PTA**: Unilateral price is strong, recommend buying on dips, and focus on positive spreads. This week, PTA device operations decreased, and it is in a de - stocking pattern. Demand is seasonally improving [2][10] - **MEG**: Short - term trend is strong, recommend 9 - 1 positive spreads, but there is significant pressure above 4600. Port inventory is decreasing, but there is supply pressure in the 01 contract [2][10] Rubber and Synthetic Rubber - **Rubber**: It is in a volatile state. The inventory in Qingdao has decreased, and the market is affected by factors such as futures prices and substitute prices [2][11][14] - **Synthetic Rubber**: Short - term is strong, but medium - term is in a range - bound state. Driven by macro - sentiment and natural rubber trends, but the fundamentals lack obvious drivers [2][16][17] Asphalt - The cracking spread continues to weaken. September's production is expected to increase, and the inventory of some regions has changed. It follows the oil price to fluctuate within a range [2][18][32] LLDPE and PP - **LLDPE**: Short - term is strongly volatile. Cost rebounds, demand improves, and inventory is low. However, there may be a short - term supply pressure relief in September [2][35][36] - **PP**: Short - term rebounds, medium - term is in a range - bound state. Short - term demand improves, but the long - term supply pressure increases as new capacity is put into operation [2][39][40] Caustic Soda - Short - term correction, pay attention to the pressure of near - month warehouse receipts. The demand is expanding, especially in the alumina industry. The export also provides support, but the supply side is restricted by the weakness of PVC [2][44][46] Pulp - It is in a volatile state. The market shows a pattern of strong broad - leaf pulp and stable softwood pulp. The core contradiction lies in the game between high international quotes and weak domestic reality [2][50][53] Glass - The price of the original sheet is stable. The market price fluctuates, with rigid demand replenishment increasing slightly, but the high - inventory contradiction still exists [2][55][56] Methanol - Short - term is volatile with support. Macro - sentiment drives it to rise, but the port inventory pressure is large, and the medium - term may correct under the high - premium pattern [2][58][60] Urea - It is in a weak state. The inventory of enterprises has increased, and the market is in a process of weakening speculation. Although macro - factors provide some support, the long - term fundamentals are still weak [2][62][65] Styrene - Short - term is strong, medium - term is bearish. As the downstream enters the seasonal bottom - fishing stage, the short - term inventory is decreasing, but the long - term demand for replenishment is insufficient [2][66][67] Soda Ash - The spot market has little change. The market is weakly volatile, with device operations fluctuating slightly and downstream demand being cautious [2][68][70] LPG and Propylene - **LPG**: Import cost provides support, but supply - demand lacks obvious improvement. CP prices have increased, and there are many device maintenance plans [2][72][76] - **Propylene**: Supply - demand is in tight balance, and the price is strongly sorted. There is a certain relationship with the spread of related contracts [2][72] PVC - The trend is under pressure. Although short - term volatility is affected by anti - involution sentiment, the supply side has high operations, demand is weak, and inventory is accumulating [2][79][80] Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Fuel Oil**: It is in a high - level volatile state at night, and the short - term strength continues. Futures prices and spot prices have increased [2][82] - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Near - month contracts continue to rise, and the high - low sulfur spread in the overseas spot market has temporarily stabilized [2][82] Container Freight Index (European Line) - It may continue to be weakly volatile. Freight rates have declined, and factors such as futures prices, freight rate indices, and carrier prices need to be considered [2][84]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Gold: After the JH meeting, Powell gave a dovish signal [2][4]. - Silver: It is expected to reach its previous high [2][5]. - Copper: The rise of the US dollar restricts price increases [2][12]. - Zinc: It will fluctuate within a narrow range [2][15]. - Lead: Lacking driving forces, the price will fluctuate [2][19]. - Tin: It will oscillate within a range [2][22]. - Aluminum: Fluctuations will converge; Alumina will decline slightly; Cast aluminum alloy will follow the trend of electrolytic aluminum [2][27]. - Nickel: It will operate in a narrow - range oscillation; Stainless steel will experience short - term low - level fluctuations [2][29]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Precious Metals (Gold and Silver) 3.1.1 Fundamental Data - **Prices**: Comex Gold 2510 rose 1.00% to 3417.20; London Gold Spot rose 0.95% to 3369.82; Comex Silver 2510 rose 2.07% to 39.390; London Silver Spot rose 1.85% to 38.801 [5]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: Comex Gold 2510 trading volume increased by 59,697 to 179,273, and open interest decreased by 2,083 to 323,440; Comex Silver 2510 trading volume increased by 10,840 to 31,554, and open interest remained unchanged at 90,075 [5]. - **Inventory**: Comex Gold inventory (in troy ounces, the day before) increased by 9,952 to 38,573,764; Comex Silver inventory (in troy ounces, the day before) remained unchanged at 508,499,193 [5]. 3.1.2 Macro and Industry News - Multiple events including geopolitical issues, corporate lawsuits, and policy changes in different countries and regions [7][9][11]. 3.1.3 Trend Intensity - Gold trend intensity: 1; Silver trend intensity: 1 [10]. 3.2 Copper 3.2.1 Fundamental Data - **Prices**: The Shanghai Copper main contract rose 1.32% to 79,690, and the night - session price was 79640, down 0.06%; LME Copper 3M electronic disk rose 0.77% to 9,809 [12]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The Shanghai Copper main contract trading volume increased by 53,037 to 87,895, and open interest increased by 20,929 to 169,761; LME Copper 3M electronic disk trading volume increased by 6,274 to 16,941, and open interest increased by 3,555 to 268,000 [12]. - **Inventory**: Shanghai Copper inventory decreased by 401 to 23,747; LME Copper inventory decreased by 375 to 155,975, and the注销仓单 ratio increased by 0.77% to 8.03% [12]. 3.2.2 Macro and Industry News - Macro: Shanghai issued the "Six Measures for the Property Market"; The US had under - expected housing sales and weak business activity index [12]. - Micro: China's refined copper imports in July 2025 decreased 0.32% month - on - month but increased 12.05% year - on - year; Codelco lowered its copper output target for this year [12][14]. 3.2.3 Trend Intensity - Copper trend intensity: 0 [14]. 3.3 Zinc 3.3.1 Fundamental Data - **Prices**: The Shanghai Zinc main contract rose 0.54% to 22395; LME Zinc 3M electronic disk rose 1.39% to 2805.5 [15]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The Shanghai Zinc main contract trading volume increased by 42715 to 131380, and open interest decreased by 2533 to 105259; LME Zinc trading volume increased by 948 to 8247, and open interest increased by 1465 to 193310 [15]. - **Inventory**: Shanghai Zinc futures inventory increased by 2403 to 35194; LME Zinc inventory decreased by 1300 to 68075 [15]. 3.3.2 News - Shanghai issued the "Six Measures for the Property Market"; The government plans to implement carbon emission quota control for certain industries [16]. 3.3.3 Trend Intensity - Zinc trend intensity: 0 [18]. 3.4 Lead 3.4.1 Fundamental Data - **Prices**: The Shanghai Lead main contract rose 0.39% to 16845; LME Lead 3M electronic disk rose 1.12% to 1992 [19]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The Shanghai Lead main contract trading volume increased by 18257 to 41202, and open interest decreased by 13190 to 27975; LME Lead trading volume increased by 1725 to 5119, and open interest increased by 3430 to 160840 [19]. - **Inventory**: Shanghai Lead futures inventory increased by 2 to 58948; LME Lead inventory decreased by 6550 to 273050 [19]. 3.4.2 News - Shanghai issued the "Six Measures for the Property Market"; The US had concerns about its economic health [20]. 3.4.3 Trend Intensity - Lead trend intensity: 0 [20]. 3.5 Tin 3.5.1 Fundamental Data - **Prices**: The Shanghai Tin main contract fell 0.21% to 265,930; LME Tin 3M electronic disk rose 1.11% to 33,845 [23]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The Shanghai Tin main contract trading volume decreased by 2,103 to 34,606, and open interest decreased by 671 to 18,073; LME Tin 3M electronic disk trading volume decreased by 9 to 180, and open interest increased by 53 to 13,988 [23]. - **Inventory**: Shanghai Tin inventory decreased by 205 to 7,053; LME Tin inventory increased by 45 to 1,785, and the注销仓单 ratio decreased by 0.38% to 6.57% [23]. 3.5.2 Macro and Industry News - Multiple geopolitical and policy - related events [24][25]. 3.5.3 Trend Intensity - Tin trend intensity: 1 [26]. 3.6 Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy 3.6.1 Fundamental Data - **Aluminum**: The Shanghai Aluminum main contract closed at 20770; LME Aluminum 3M closed at 2622. The LME注销仓单 ratio was 2.77% [27]. - **Alumina**: The Shanghai Alumina main contract closed at 3184 [27]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: It follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum [27]. 3.6.2 Comprehensive News - The outcome of the US - South Korea leaders' meeting [28]. 3.6.3 Trend Intensity - Aluminum trend intensity: 0; Alumina trend intensity: 0; Aluminum alloy trend intensity: 0 [28]. 3.7 Nickel and Stainless Steel 3.7.1 Fundamental Data - **Nickel**: The Shanghai Nickel main contract closed at 120,310; 1 imported nickel was priced at 120,350 [29]. - **Stainless Steel**: The stainless steel main contract closed at 12,880 [29]. 3.7.2 Macro and Industry News - Ontario may stop exporting nickel to the US; An Indonesian nickel - iron project entered the trial - production stage; Environmental violations were found in an Indonesian industrial park [29][30]. 3.7.3 Trend Intensity - Nickel trend intensity: 0; Stainless steel trend intensity: 0 [34].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the document 2. Core Views - Shanghai's new real - estate policies will release housing demand, especially in outer - ring areas with high inventory, and may lead to a rebound in trading volume [6] - The coking coal market is short - term strong and medium - term bearish. Short - term strength is due to supply contraction expectations and positive macro - sentiment, while medium - term decline is because of weak demand in the peak season [7][8] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Real Estate - On August 25, Shanghai issued "Six Measures for the Housing Market", including relaxing outer - ring purchase restrictions, allowing single people to buy as families, and enabling housing provident funds to pay down - payments. This will directly benefit the release of housing demand, especially for high - inventory projects in outer - ring areas [6] 3.2 Coal and Coke - **Short - term**: Coal mine accidents lead to supply contraction expectations for coking coal, and combined with positive macro - sentiment, coking coal prices are expected to rise [7] - **Medium - term**: Terminal demand in the peak season is likely to be weak, and the role - change of traders will increase supply pressure, leading to price declines and profit compression [8] 3.3 Commodities - **Precious Metals**: Gold is influenced by the dovish stance of Powell at the JH meeting, and silver is approaching its previous high [11] - **Base Metals**: Copper's price increase is restricted by the rising US dollar; zinc shows narrow - range fluctuations; lead lacks driving forces and its price fluctuates; tin moves in a range; aluminum's fluctuations converge; alumina declines slightly; and casting aluminum alloy follows electrolytic aluminum [11][22][25] - **Energy Metals**: Nickel moves in a narrow range, and stainless steel fluctuates at a low level in the short - term; lithium carbonate may continue to fluctuate in a range due to limited drivers [11][39][45] - **Industrial Metals**: Iron ore is supported by the non - significant decline in macro - risk appetite; rebar and hot - rolled coil fluctuate widely due to repeated market sentiment; ferrosilicon and silicomanganese fluctuate widely driven by sector sentiment; coke and coking coal also fluctuate widely [11][53][57][61][64] - **Agricultural Products**: Palm oil waits for a pull - back to go long; soybean oil consolidates at a high level; soybean meal may adjust and fluctuate; and corn moves in a range [11][64][66][68] - **Chemicals**: Para - xylene is in a tight supply - demand balance and has a strong upward trend; PTA has a new device put into operation by Sanfangxiang and is suitable for positive spreads; MEG has a strong upward trend; rubber moves in a range; synthetic rubber is short - term strong and medium - term range - bound; asphalt's cracking continues to weaken; LLDPE fluctuates strongly in the short - term; PP rebounds in the short - term and is a medium - term oscillating market; caustic soda corrects in the short - term; paper pulp moves in a range; glass's original sheet price is stable; methanol is supported in short - term oscillations; urea is in a weak operation; styrene is short - term strong and medium - term bearish; and soda ash's spot market changes little [11][70] - **Others**: Logs fluctuate repeatedly [66]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The container shipping index (European route) is expected to continue its weak oscillation. The freight rate in September is on a downward trend, with a possible slowdown in the decline in the second week, but the downward pressure on freight rates in the second half of the month is still significant. In the short term, the spot market is expected to remain weak; in the medium term, if the loading rate further declines and the FAK freight rate approaches the shipping company's cash - flow cost line, some shipping companies may increase the suspension of voyages, and the further downward space for freight rates may be limited [7]. - For the 2510 contract, it is recommended to close short positions on dips. For the 2512 and 2602 contracts, it is advisable to wait and see in terms of single - side valuation, and pay attention to the opportunity to enter the 12 - 04 calendar spread trade in the next 1 - 2 weeks [9]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: On August 26, 2025, the closing prices of EC2510, EC2512, and EC2602 were 1,358.0 (up 2.57%), 1,696.7 (up 0.50%), and 1,496.9 (up 0.78%) respectively. The trading volumes were 39,234, 7,289, and 1,070, and the open interests were 54,357, 13,515, and 4,497 respectively. The open interest changes were +102, +220, and +42 respectively [1]. - **Freight Rate Index**: The SCFIS European route index was 1,990.20 points, down 8.7% week - on - week; the SCFIS US - West route index was 1,041.38 points, down 5.9% week - on - week. The SCFI European route index was $1,668/TEU, down 8.4% bi - weekly; the SCFI US - West route index was $1,644/FEU, down 6.5% bi - weekly [1]. - **Spot Freight Rates**: The average FAK in the first week of September was around $2,270/FEU, a drop of $1,100/FEU from the peak in early August. The average values of the Gemini, OA, and PA alliances in the first week of September were $2,170/FEU, $2,330/FEU, and $2,240/FEU respectively. MSC reduced the price by $250 to $2,340/FEU on August 26, and the SPOT price was reported at $2,140/FEU [5]. 3.2 Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply Side**: In September, the number of undetermined ships decreased by 1 to 1, and the number of blank sailings decreased by 1 to 5. The weekly average capacity in September was slightly revised up from 29.7 to 30.0 million TEU/week. The capacity in September decreased by about 6% compared with August, significantly lower than the 14% decline in the same period in 2024. In the second week of September, the capacity reduction was relatively large, and the decline in the freight rate center is expected to slow down. In October, the number of undetermined ships remained at 6, and the number of blank sailings remained at 4. Without considering undetermined voyages, the weekly average capacity was 29.1 million TEU/week [6]. - **Demand Side**: At the end of the month, the cargo - collecting situations of shipping companies varied. Maersk's cargo - collecting results were better than the company's target due to significant and early price cuts in the 35th week. The long - term contract customers of COSCO decreased, and the cargo - collecting pressure on some voyages at the end of the month increased significantly [6]. 3.3 Market Outlook and Strategy - **Market Outlook**: In the short term, due to the expected decline in spot prices, the futures price oscillated downward, and the discount of the 2510 contract decreased from 22% to 18%. In the medium term, if the loading rate further declines and the FAK freight rate approaches the shipping company's cash - flow cost line of $1,300 - 1,600/FEU, some shipping companies may increase the suspension of voyages, and the further downward space for freight rates may be limited [7]. - **Strategy**: Close short positions of the 2510 contract on dips. Wait and see for the single - side valuation of the 2512 and 2602 contracts, and pay attention to the opportunity to enter the 12 - 04 calendar spread trade in the next 1 - 2 weeks [9]. 3.4 Historical Market Review - In 2024, the weighted index of the European route stopped falling on September 10. There was a short - term speculation about the strike at US - West ports in late September. After the strike was resolved during the National Day holiday, the premium of the "strike" was given back on the first trading day after the holiday. On the second trading day, the market started to trade the shipping company's price increase announcement. Maersk announced a price increase to $4,500/FEU effective from November 4, and the actual price increase in early November was around $4,000/FEU. Subsequently, shipping companies announced price increases in late November, early December, and late December. The peak freight rate appeared in the first week of December [8].

This Week's Key Focus - On August 25, the People's Bank of China will conduct 600 billion yuan of MLF operations [2][3] - On August 27, China's National Bureau of Statistics will announce the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size for July and January - July [2][10] - On August 28, the US Department of Commerce will announce the revised value of the US GDP for the second quarter of 2025 [2][15] - On August 29, the US Department of Commerce will announce the PCE price index for July [2][19] - On August 31, China will announce the official manufacturing PMI, non - manufacturing PMI, and comprehensive PMI for August [2][22] - From August 31 to September 1, the 2025 Shanghai Cooperation Organization Summit will be held in Tianjin [2][23] This Week's Hotspot Preview August 25 - The People's Bank of China will conduct 600 billion yuan of 1 - year MLF operations, with a net investment of 300 billion yuan, a sixth consecutive month of increased renewal [3] - The State Council Information Office will hold a press conference to introduce the achievements of customs in safeguarding national security and promoting high - quality development during the 14th Five - Year Plan period [4] - The US will announce July new home sales. If the annualized total is slightly lower than the previous value, it will mildly suppress the rise of non - ferrous metal futures but mildly help the rise of gold and silver futures [5] August 26 - The State Council Information Office will hold two press conferences, one on the achievements of high - quality energy development during the 14th Five - Year Plan period and the other on the 25th China International Investment and Trade Fair [7] - The US will announce the preliminary value of July durable goods orders. If the monthly rate is higher than the previous value, it will help the prices of non - ferrous metals, crude oil, and related commodity futures rise but suppress the prices of gold and silver futures [8] - The US will announce the August Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index. If it is slightly higher than the previous value, it will mildly help the prices of non - ferrous metals, crude oil, and related futures rise but suppress the prices of gold and silver futures [9] August 27 - China will announce the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size for July and January - July. From January to June, the year - on - year profit decreased by 1.8%, and in June, it decreased by 4.3% year - on - year [10] - The Taiwan Affairs Office of the State Council will hold a press conference [11] - Germany will announce the September Gfk Consumer Confidence Index, with an expected value of - 22 and a previous value of - 21.5 [12] - The Eurozone will announce the August economic sentiment index and industrial sentiment index. If both are slightly higher than the previous values, it will mildly help the prices of related industrial product futures rise [13] - EIA will announce the change in US crude oil inventories for the week ending August 22. If the inventory continues to decline, it will help crude oil and related commodity futures rise [14] August 28 - The US will announce the revised value of the second - quarter GDP for 2025, with an expected annualized quarterly rate of 3.0% [15] - The US will announce the number of initial jobless claims for the week ending August 23. If it is slightly higher than the previous value, it will mildly suppress the rise of commodity futures except for gold and silver futures but mildly help the prices of gold and silver futures rise [16] - The US will announce the seasonally adjusted pending home sales index for July. If the monthly rate is higher than the previous value, it will help the prices of non - ferrous metal futures rise but suppress the prices of gold and silver futures [17] August 29 - The US will announce personal spending and personal income for July. If the monthly rates are slightly higher than the previous values, it will mildly suppress the rise of gold and silver futures but mildly help the rise of industrial product futures except for gold and silver futures [18] - The US will announce the PCE price index for July, with an expected annual rate of 2.6% and an expected core annual rate of 2.9% [19] - The US will announce the August Chicago PMI. If it is slightly higher than the previous value, it will help the rise of non - ferrous metal futures but suppress the rise of gold and silver futures [20] August 31 - China will announce the official manufacturing PMI, non - manufacturing PMI, and comprehensive PMI for August. If both the manufacturing and non - manufacturing PMIs are slightly lower than the previous values, it will mildly suppress the rise of stock index futures and commodity futures prices [22] - The 2025 Shanghai Cooperation Organization Summit will be held in Tianjin, and President Xi Jinping will participate in relevant activities and deliver a keynote speech [23]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report provides a comprehensive analysis and forecast of various futures markets, including stock index futures, treasury bond futures, precious metal futures, base metal futures, energy futures, and agricultural product futures. Based on macro - fundamental and technical analyses, it predicts the price trends of major futures contracts on August 25, 2025, and also analyzes the market conditions on August 22, 2025, along with the expected trends for the month of August 2025 [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Forecast for August 25, 2025 - **Stock Index Futures**: Expected to fluctuate with an upward bias. For example, IF2509 has resistance levels at 4500 and 4550 points, and support levels at 4394 and 4360 points [2][31]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The ten - year treasury bond futures contract T2512 and the thirty - year treasury bond futures contract TL2512 are likely to have a weak and wide - range fluctuation [2]. - **Precious Metal Futures**: Gold futures contract AU2510 is likely to fluctuate with an upward bias, and silver futures contract AG2510 is expected to fluctuate with an upward bias [2][3]. - **Base Metal Futures**: Most base metal futures contracts, such as CU2510, AL2510, etc., are expected to fluctuate with an upward bias [3]. - **Energy Futures**: Crude oil futures contract SC2510 is likely to fluctuate and consolidate, while fuel oil futures contract FU2510 is expected to fluctuate with an upward bias [6][7]. - **Agricultural Product Futures**: Contracts like M2601 are expected to fluctuate with an upward bias, while Y2601 is likely to fluctuate weakly [7]. 3.2 Market Conditions on August 22, 2025 - **Stock Index Futures**: On August 22, major stock index futures contracts, such as IF2509, IH2509, IC2509, and IM2509, opened slightly higher, fluctuated upward, and showed strong upward momentum. The A - share market also performed strongly, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 1.45% to 3825.76 points [19][26]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: On August 22, treasury bond futures closed down across the board. The ten - year treasury bond futures contract T2512 opened slightly lower, fluctuated weakly, and closed at 107.660 yuan, down 0.18% [46]. - **Precious Metal Futures**: Gold futures contract AU2510 opened slightly higher, rebounded and then declined, closing at 773.40 yuan/gram, down 0.36%. Silver futures contract AG2510 opened slightly higher, fluctuated slightly upward, and closed at 9192 yuan/kilogram, up 0.36% [52][57]. - **Base Metal Futures**: Most base metal futures contracts showed different degrees of upward or downward fluctuations. For example, copper futures contract CU2510 opened slightly higher, fluctuated slightly upward, and closed at 78650 yuan/ton, up 0.10% [63]. - **Energy Futures**: Crude oil futures contract SC2510 opened slightly lower, fluctuated slightly upward, and closed at 493.6 yuan/barrel, up 1.42%. Fuel oil futures contract FU2510 opened slightly lower, fluctuated upward, and closed at 2779 yuan/ton, up 2.47% [126][130]. - **Agricultural Product Futures**: Contracts like M2601 opened slightly higher and fluctuated downward, while Y2601 opened flat, fluctuated upward, and closed at 8458 yuan/ton, up 0.64% [138][141]. 3.3 Expected Trends for August 2025 - **Stock Index Futures**: Different stock index futures contracts are expected to have different trends, such as IF and IH being likely to have a strong and wide - range fluctuation, while IC and IM are expected to fluctuate with an upward bias [30]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The ten - year and thirty - year treasury bond futures contracts are expected to have a weak and wide - range fluctuation [46][50]. - **Precious Metal Futures**: Gold futures are likely to have a wide - range fluctuation, and silver futures are expected to have a strong and wide - range fluctuation [52][58]. - **Base Metal Futures**: Most base metal futures contracts are expected to have a wide - range or strong - wide - range fluctuation [63][69]. - **Energy Futures**: Crude oil futures are likely to have a weak and wide - range fluctuation, and fuel oil futures are expected to fluctuate with an upward bias [126][130]. - **Agricultural Product Futures**: Different agricultural product futures contracts are expected to have different trends, such as M2601 being likely to fluctuate with an upward bias, and Y2601 being likely to fluctuate weakly [7]. 3.4 Macro - news and Trading Tips - The Shanghai Cooperation Organization Summit will be held in Tianjin from August 31 to September 1, 2025 [8]. - The central bank will conduct a 6000 - billion - yuan MLF operation on August 25, 2025, with a net injection of 3000 billion yuan this month [8]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other three departments jointly issued a document to regulate the rare - earth industry [9]. - The National Development and Reform Commission and other departments solicited public opinions on the "Rules for Internet Platform Price Behaviors" [9].