1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core View of the Report - This week, the natural rubber market is affected by geopolitical conflicts, and the market is expected to continue to fluctuate within a range. The raw material prices are firm due to the tense situation between Thailand and Cambodia, while downstream procurement is cautious, and port inventories continue to accumulate. There is no obvious upward or downward driving force in the short - term [107]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry News - In November 2025, China's automobile production reached 3.532 million units, a record high. The export of automobiles reached 728,000 units, exceeding 700,000 for the first time. The production and sales of new - energy vehicles both approached 1.5 million units, with exports of 2.315 million units, doubling year - on - year [5]. - In October 2025, Malaysia's natural rubber production decreased by 22.7% year - on - year, while exports increased by 9.9% year - on - year. The domestic consumption increased by 0.7% year - on - year [6]. - The European electric vehicle market has improved, and European automakers are adjusting their powertrain strategies, using hybrid vehicles as a transitional technology [7]. 3.2 Price - This week, both domestic and international rubber prices rebounded, with NR having the largest increase. On December 12, 2025, the closing price of RU2605 was 15,230 yuan/ton, a 1.10% increase from the previous period; NR2605 was 12,345 yuan/ton, a 2.45% increase [10][12]. - The basis and spread of rubber prices have changed. For example, the spread between whole - milk rubber and RU05 was - 330 yuan/ton on December 12, 2025, a 9.59% increase from the previous period [13]. - The prices of substitute products such as butadiene and styrene - butadiene rubber have also changed. The price of butadiene has supported the price of cis - butadiene rubber, but the downstream resistance to high - price offers remains [32]. 3.3 Fundamental Data 3.3.1 Supply - Weather conditions: Thailand's southern region is in the rainy season with more rainfall than last year, while the northeastern region has ended the rainy season with lower temperatures. Hainan and Yunnan in China have basically ended their rainy seasons [40][42]. - Raw material prices: After the domestic production areas stopped production, the impact on prices was digested. Due to the tense geopolitical situation between Thailand and Cambodia, raw material prices first fell and then rose [44]. - Upstream processing profits: Thailand's rubber processing profits generally decreased. For example, on December 12, 2025, the production profit of Thai standard rubber was - 1,666 yuan/ton, a 13,983.33% decrease from the previous period [51][53]. - Export situation: In October 2025, Thailand's natural rubber exports increased month - on - month, mainly contributed by standard rubber and mixed rubber. The exports to China also increased significantly. Indonesia's exports decreased year - on - month, mainly due to the sharp decline in standard rubber exports. Vietnam's exports increased month - on - month, with a large increase in latex exports. Cote d'Ivoire's exports decreased month - on - month in November [63][69][75][76]. - Import situation: In October 2025, China imported 5.108 million tons of natural rubber (including mixed and composite rubber), a 14.27% decrease from the previous month and a 0.89% decrease year - on - year [80]. 3.3.2 Demand - Tire production and sales: This week, the production capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises increased slightly, but the overall inventory began to accumulate again. In October 2025, the export of semi - steel tires continued to decline significantly, while the export of all - steel tires decreased slightly. The sales of heavy - duty trucks increased slightly, and the sales of passenger cars continued to grow in November [86][91]. - Road transportation turnover: In October 2025, the freight turnover of road transportation decreased month - on - month, while the passenger turnover improved month - on - month [92]. 3.3.3 Inventory - Social inventory: As of December 5, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory continued to accumulate, with both dark and light rubber inventories increasing. The inventory in Qingdao Port increased at a slower pace, and the general trade shipments improved [99]. - Futures inventory: On December 12, 2025, the futures inventory of natural rubber on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 57,000 tons, a 25.17% increase from the previous week [104]. 3.4 This Week's View Summary - View: Affected by geopolitical conflicts, the rubber market fluctuates within a range. The raw material prices are firm, but downstream procurement is cautious, and inventories continue to accumulate [107]. - Strategy: For single - side trading, use the RU05 range - trading idea within [14,800 - 15,800]. For inter - period trading, conduct a 1 - 5 positive spread strategy. For inter - variety trading, observe [108].

Report Information - Report Title: Urea Weekly Report [1] - Report Date: December 14, 2025 [1] - Analyst: Yang Honghan [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Short - term outlook for urea is weak, while medium - term outlook is oscillatory [2] - The driving force is neutral in the short - term, with spot trading weakening and futures prices under oscillatory pressure. The subsequent driving force depends on the continuity of mid - stream replenishment [2] - In terms of valuation, there may be policy pressure on urea. The 01 contract has a strong fundamental resistance level at 1700 yuan/ton and a support level between 1580 - 1600 yuan/ton [2] Summary by Directory Supply - **Capacity**: The expansion pattern of urea capacity continued in 2025. The total new capacity in 2024 was 392 tons, and in 2025 it was 664 tons. There are also planned new capacities in 2026 [23] - **Production**: From December 4 - 10, 2025, China's urea production was 1385400 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.02%. Next week, the production is expected to be around 1.39 million tons with limited change [2] - **Cost**: Raw material prices have stabilized, and the factory cash - flow cost line has risen [29] - **Profit**: Urea cash - flow cost - corresponding profit is currently in a profitable state [34] - **Net Import (Export)**: During the reserve period, export policies have tightened [40] Demand - **Agricultural Demand**: Seasonal demand for agriculture is strengthening. High - standard farmland construction has increased the demand for urea from corn [46][49] - **Industrial Demand** - **Compound Fertilizer**: The compound fertilizer industry's fundamentals show certain trends in capacity utilization, production cost, inventory and production profit [53][54][55] - **Melamine**: The melamine industry's fundamentals include production profit, market price, production volume and capacity utilization [57][58] - **Real Estate and Wood Products**: The demand for panels from the real estate sector has limited support, but panel exports are resilient [60] Inventory - **Factory Inventory**: On December 10, 2025, China's total urea enterprise inventory was 1.2342 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4.36%. Inventory decreased in some provinces and increased in others [2][66] - **Port Inventory**: China's urea port sample inventory was 123000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 17.14%, with some ports receiving more goods [2][66] International Urea - **Price**: The report presents the price trends of international urea, including FOB prices of large - granular urea in China, the Baltic Sea, the Middle East, and the CFR price in Brazil [19][70][71][72][73]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week (Dec 4 - 10, 2025), the capacity utilization rate of 92 asphalt refineries in China was 29.9%, a 0.2% week - on - week decrease; the capacity utilization rate of 77 domestic heavy - traffic asphalt enterprises was 27.8%, a 0.1% week - on - week decrease. The decline was mainly due to the continuous shutdown of the large - scale unit of Hebei Xinhai and the low - to - medium - load production of major refineries in East China, despite the resumption of asphalt production at Guangzhou Petrochemical and Qilu Petrochemical and the stable production after the output increase at Karamay Petrochemical and Liaohe Petrochemical [4]. - From Dec 3 - 9, 2025, the total shipment volume of 54 domestic asphalt enterprises was 384,000 tons, a 3.8% week - on - week decrease. In North China, the overall supply decreased, and refineries mainly controlled the volume to deliver previous contracts, leading to a decrease in shipment volume. In Northeast and Northwest China, major refineries increased production, driving up the shipment volume [4]. - Crude oil weakened this week, but the escalating situation in Venezuela and the high - price winter storage trial in Hebei (3,000 yuan/ton) pushed BU to strengthen slightly against crude oil in the middle of the week. The average weekly theoretical profit of domestic asphalt processing was - 453 yuan/ton, a 25 - yuan/ton week - on - week increase. The spot price of the asphalt market fluctuated between 3,081 - 3,086 yuan/ton, with a slowdown in the decline of the average spot price and a narrowing of the price fluctuation range [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Overview - The capacity utilization rate of asphalt refineries decreased due to factors such as the shutdown of some large - scale units and low - to - medium - load production of major refineries. The shipment volume of asphalt enterprises decreased overall, with regional differences. The asphalt market showed a slight strengthening against the backdrop of weak crude oil due to geopolitical and winter - storage factors [4]. 3.2 Price & Spread - **Cost Structure**: The cost of asphalt is affected by factors such as Brent, WTI, imported diluted asphalt, and Ma Rui crude oil. There are also raw material supply options, including substitutes like SC, and different crude oils have different asphalt yields. Import and export policies, exchange rates, and freight also impact the cost [7]. - **Futures - Disk Price and Trading Volume/Open Interest**: There are data on the prices and trading volume/open interest of Brent, WTI, and SC, presented in a graphical form [11]. - **Spot - Heavy - Traffic Asphalt and Ma Rui Crude Oil**: Data on the prices of domestic heavy - traffic asphalt in different regions and the production profit margin of asphalt in Shandong are presented graphically [12]. - **Spread - Basis and Calendar Spread**: There are data on the basis in regions such as North China, Shandong, and the Yangtze River Delta, as well as calendar spreads, presented graphically [14][15][16]. 3.3 Fundamental Data 3.3.1 Demand - **Consumption Distribution**: The demand for asphalt comes from the road market (including highway construction and maintenance), waterproofing market, ship - fuel market, coking market, and export market. Seasonal factors also have an impact, but the impact of some markets like the ship - fuel and coking markets is limited [21]. - **Weekly Data**: From Dec 3 - 9, 2025, the total shipment volume of 54 domestic asphalt enterprises was 384,000 tons, a 3.8% week - on - week decrease. The capacity utilization rate of 69 domestic sample modified - asphalt enterprises was 9.0%, a 0.2% week - on - week decrease and a 0.5% year - on - year increase. The cold weather in the north reduced the production enthusiasm of modified - asphalt enterprises, while the rush - work demand in the south increased production, resulting in a slight decrease in the overall supply of modified asphalt [25]. 3.3.2 Supply - **Supply Pattern**: The supply of asphalt comes from domestic refineries (including major and local refineries) and imports. Refineries are divided by region and attribute. Key supply indicators include inventory, production start - up, production profit, maintenance plans, and monthly production schedules [27]. - **Production, Maintenance, and Raw Materials**: From Dec 2 - 8, 2025, the weekly total asphalt production in China was 514,000 tons, a 0.9 - million - ton (1.8%) week - on - week increase and a 0.6 - million - ton (1.2%) year - on - year decrease. The cumulative production from January to December was 29.531 million tons, a 7.9% year - on - year increase. As of Dec 11, 2025, the total inventory of 54 asphalt sample refinery warehouses was 618,000 tons, a 2.5% decrease from Dec 8. The total inventory of 104 asphalt social warehouses was 1.036 million tons, remaining stable from Dec 8. There were regional differences in inventory changes [30]. - **Start - up**: There are data on the weekly start - up rates of 77 major asphalt refineries in different regions, presented graphically [33][34][35]. - **Inventory**: There are data on the weekly inventory rates of asphalt refineries and the asphalt market in different regions, presented graphically [42].

国泰君安期货·能源化工 纸浆周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所·高琳琳 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002332 日期：2025年12月14日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint CONTENTS 行业资讯 01 行情数据 02 基本面数据 03 本周观点总结 04 行业资讯 行情走势 基差与月差 现货价格 供给 库存 需求 本周观点总结 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 2 行业资讯 1 行业资讯 1.【常熟港纸浆库存统计】截至2025年12月11日，中国纸浆常熟港库存53.2万吨，较上周期下降3.4万吨，环比下降6.0%。本周常熟港库存呈现去库走势。 2.【青岛港纸浆库存统计】截至2025年12月11日，中国青岛港港内及港外仓库纸浆库存136.2万吨，较上周下降3.3万吨，环比下降2.4%。本周期青岛港库存周期内 呈现去库的走势。 3.【高栏港纸浆库存统计】截至2025年12月11日，中国纸浆高栏港库存5.4万吨，较上周上涨0.9万吨，环比上涨20.0%。本周期高栏港库存呈现累库的 ...

国泰君安期货·能源化工 周报合集 国泰君安期货研究所 日期： 2025年12月14日 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 上游 1、石脑油,乙烯 2、低硫燃料油,燃料油 3、沥青 02 1、PTA,MEG,对二甲苯 2、瓶片,短纤 03 2 CONTENTS 01 聚酯芳烃 煤化工及烯烃 1、LLDPE,PP 2、甲醇 04 氯碱 1、玻璃,纯碱 1、橡胶 2、合成橡胶 3、纸浆 氯碱及轻工 05 3、苯乙烯 3、尿素 4、胶版印刷纸 石脑油产业链周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所·陈鑫超 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020238 日期：2025年12月13日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 3 CONTENTS 总结 01 石脑油部分 02 乙烯部分 03 烯烃-芳烃影响 04 现货及价格 估值部分 供需及平衡表 现货及价格 估值部分 供需及平衡表 裂解- ...

铂钯周报 国泰君安期货研究所 有色及贵金属 刘雨萱 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 杨蕤（联系人）从业资格号：F03151404 本周广铂一改以往紧跟白银趋势的步伐，尽管白银接连强势破位，广铂 周一至周四也依然在446元/克下方震荡，直到周五才真正发动，开启自 己的破位之旅，并且在周五收盘时达到452.5元/克，周涨幅2.7%。外盘 铂金也是本周五之前在1700美元/盎司处承压，周五下午强势突破年内 高点并将年内新高刷新至1779.5美元/盎司，后随着白银撤步，回吐了一 部分涨幅。截至周五夜盘收盘1742.3美元/盎司。广钯则是在上周稳步上 行，中枢不断抬升，也于周五跟随铂金破位，收389.45元/克，周涨幅 2.4%。外盘钯金也是再次站稳了1500美元/盎司。 由于铂和钯均已破位，预计下周的行情更倾向于上涨，走势均偏强。尤 其是铂金，远期贴水在本周进一步加深，各期限均在年化10%上下， NYMEX库存小幅下降且纽约-伦敦价差进一步缩小甚至倒挂，料伦敦市 场现货开始紧张，给予铂金现货向上的动能。但由于周五晚间白银暴跌， 若周一跌势仍在，铂钯可能有所撤步。技术面上看伦敦现货铂金下方支 撑在1650美元/盎 ...

Report Overview - The report is a weekly report on polyolefins by Guotai Junan Futures, covering the plastic and polypropylene sectors, including price, supply, demand, and inventory analysis [1][3] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Report Core Viewpoints Plastic - The price of plastic is under pressure due to the expected increase in supply and decrease in demand at the end of the year, with a recommended strategy of shorting on rebounds [5] Polypropylene - The price of polypropylene is also under pressure in the off - season, with a recommended strategy of shorting on rebounds [94][96] 3. Summary by Directory Plastic Part Price & Spread - Domestic and foreign prices of PE have generally declined, with the Chinese CIF price down by $5 - 10. The import window has compressed, and the LD import profit is at a relatively high level this year [9][19] - The production profit of PE has been compressed, with the profit of ethylene procurement significantly reduced recently, while the profits of MTO, coal - based, and naphtha - based production have slightly improved [40] Supply - The total effective capacity growth rate is 16%, and the domestic production growth rate is 18%. Although the import has declined year - on - year, the supply is still loose. The subsequent maintenance scale is expected to decline, and the supply is expected to increase in December [5] Demand & Inventory - The demand for PE is weak. The agricultural film start - up rate has continued to decline, and the demand from other downstream industries is also expected to decrease slightly. The inventory removal is not smooth, with the upstream inventory accumulating slightly and the social inventory decreasing slightly [5] Polypropylene Part Price & Spread - The domestic and foreign prices of PP have declined. The CIF price in China has rebounded and then declined. The import window is approaching closure [100][110] - The overall profit of PP production has been compressed, with the PDH and propylene - based production valuations being the most significantly compressed, while the coal - based process profit has slightly improved [130] Supply - The total effective capacity growth rate is 12.7%, and the estimated annual production growth rate is 16.7%. The end - of - year planned maintenance volume is declining, and the supply center is high. The subsequent maintenance scale is expected to decline, and the supply is expected to increase [94] Demand & Inventory - The downstream start - up of PP is temporarily stable, but the orders of some industries are seasonally weakening. The inventory removal is not smooth, and the inventory is higher than the same period last year [95][96]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - The weekly synthesis rubber report suggests that the oscillation center has shifted upwards, with the supply of high - cis butadiene rubber decreasing this week and the demand maintaining a year - on - year high growth rate. The inventory has slightly decreased, and the valuation logic has changed. The short - term trading logic is diversified, and the price center has shifted upwards [2][4]. - The weekly butadiene report indicates that butadiene has rebounded in the short term. The supply is expected to remain stable, the demand from synthetic rubber is high, and the inventory is in a destocking state [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Butadiene Fundamentals - Pricing stage: Butadiene is currently in the supply - demand pricing stage, with a low correlation to the raw material end [8]. - Capacity expansion: To match the expansion of downstream industries, butadiene capacity is continuously expanding, with the speed and amplitude slightly faster than that of downstream industries in some stages. In 2024, the new capacity was 380,000 tons; in 2025, 940,000 tons; and it is expected to be 620,000 tons in 2026 [10][12]. - Supply - side: - Production: This cycle (20251205 - 1211), the estimated weekly output of Chinese butadiene sample enterprises was 113,400 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.08%. Next week, it is expected to be around 113,400 tons, with limited fluctuations [5]. - Operating rate: The operating rate has fluctuated, and some enterprises have carried out maintenance [14][15]. - Net imports: The data shows the monthly import and net import volume trends of butadiene in China [16]. - Demand - side: - Cis - butadiene rubber: The capacity increased by 200,000 tons in 2025 and is expected to increase by 190,000 tons in 2026 [18]. - Styrene - butadiene rubber: The capacity increased by 60,000 tons in 2025 and is expected to increase by 220,000 tons in 2026. The operating rate and maintenance situation of some enterprises are provided [20][21][27]. - ABS: The capacity is expected to increase by 1.635 million tons in 2025 and 1.3 million tons in 2026 [28][30]. - SBS: The capacity increased by 360,000 tons in 2025 and is expected to increase by 55,000 tons in 2026 [32][33]. - ABS and SBS fundamentals: The operating rate, profit, and inventory data of ABS and SBS are presented [35][36]. - Inventory - side: The weekly enterprise, port, and total inventory data of butadiene show the inventory trends over the years [37][38][39]. 3.2 Synthetic Rubber Fundamentals - Cis - butadiene rubber: - Supply: - Production: This week, the output of high - cis butadiene rubber was 28,400 tons, a decrease of 0.11 tons compared to the previous cycle, with a week - on - week decrease of 3.87%. The capacity utilization rate was 70.69%, a week - on - week decrease of 2.84 percentage points [4]. - Cost and profit: The daily theoretical production cost, profit, and gross profit margin data over the years are provided [45][46][47]. - Import and export: The monthly import and export volume data of cis - butadiene rubber are presented [48][49]. - Inventory: The weekly enterprise, trader, and futures inventory data of cis - butadiene rubber show the inventory trends [52][53]. - Demand: The inventory and operating rate data of Shandong Province's all - steel and semi - steel tires are provided, reflecting the demand situation of cis - butadiene rubber in the tire industry [56][57].

Report Date - The report is dated December 14, 2025 [1] Core View - In the coming week (December 15 - 19), both the Dalian soybean meal and soybean futures prices are expected to fluctuate. For soybean meal, the current decline in US soybean prices calls for attention to China's purchasing situation. If China makes purchases at lower prices, the downside of US soybean prices is expected to be limited. In the domestic market, prices are slightly stronger due to concerns about customs clearance. For soybeans, the spot price is stable with a slight upward trend, and the futures market is influenced by market news and sentiment, likely to fluctuate within a range [6] International Soybean Market (December 8 - 12) Price Trends - US soybean futures prices mainly declined. From a weekly K - line perspective, in the week of December 12, the main January 2026 contract of US soybeans had a weekly decline of 2.62%, and the main January 2026 contract of US soybean meal had a weekly decline of 1.76% [2] Fundamental Factors - China continued to purchase US soybeans, but the volume was lower than market expectations. From December 8 - 12, the total volume of US soybeans sold to China and unknown destinations was about 1.221 million tons (for the 2025/26 crop year) [2] - The import cost of Brazilian soybeans decreased week - on - week. As of the week of December 12, the average CNF premium of Brazilian soybeans for February 2026 delivery increased week - on - week, while the average import cost decreased due to the decline in the US soybean futures market [2] - Brazilian soybean planting was nearly complete. As of the week of December 4, the planting progress of the 2025/26 Brazilian soybeans was 94%, slightly lower than about 95% in the same period last year [2] - Argentina's soybean planting progress was slow. As of the week of December 11, the planting progress of the 2025/26 Argentine soybeans was about 58%, compared with about 66% in the same period last year [2] - The weather forecast for South American soybean - producing regions indicated that in the next two weeks (December 13 - 27), there would be more precipitation and lower temperatures in the main soybean - producing areas of Brazil, while precipitation and temperatures in Argentina would be basically normal [2] Domestic Soybean Meal Market (December 8 - 12) Futures Prices - Domestic soybean meal futures prices first declined and then rose. From a weekly K - line perspective, in the week of December 12, the main m2605 contract of soybean meal had a weekly decline of 1.81% [2] Spot Market - Trading volume increased week - on - week. As of the week of December 12, the average daily trading volume of soybean meal at major domestic oil mills was about 180,000 tons, compared with about 140,000 tons in the previous week [3] - Delivery volume increased week - on - week. As of the week of December 12, the average daily delivery volume of soybean meal at major oil mills was about 195,000 tons, compared with about 184,000 tons in the previous week [4] - Basis increased week - on - week. As of the week of December 12, the average weekly basis of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang was about 293 yuan/ton, compared with about 226 yuan/ton in the previous week [4] - Inventory decreased slightly week - on - week but increased year - on - year. As of the week of December 5, the inventory of soybean meal at major domestic oil mills was about 1.05 million tons, with a week - on - week decline of about 2% and a year - on - year increase of about 75% [4] - Soybean crushing volume decreased week - on - week and was expected to be stable in the coming week. As of the week of December 12, the weekly soybean crushing volume in China was about 2.04 million tons, and the operating rate was about 56%. In the coming week (December 13 - 19), the expected crushing volume was about 2.04 million tons, and the operating rate was 56% [4] Domestic Soybean Market (December 8 - 12) Futures Prices - Domestic soybean futures prices were relatively strong. From a weekly K - line perspective, in the week of December 12, the main a2601 contract of soybeans had a weekly increase of 1.55% [2] Spot Market - Soybean prices were stable with a slight upward trend. In some parts of Northeast China, the purchase price of clean soybeans was in the range of 4,840 - 4,160 yuan/ton, up 20 - 40 yuan/ton from the previous week. In some parts of Inner China, the purchase price remained flat, and in the sales areas, the selling price of Northeast edible soybeans also remained unchanged [5] - State reserve purchases continued without new storage points. The ongoing state reserve purchases in Heilongjiang, Jilin, and Inner Mongolia supported the soybean prices in the Northeast [5] - The purchase price in the Northeast production area continued to rise. Due to farmers' reluctance to sell, the volume of purchases was slow. Most traders reported slow sales in the market and mainly executed previous contracts [5] - The trading of Northeast soybeans in the sales areas was slow. Dealers in many places reported normal but slow trading of Northeast soybeans. Downstream markets had inventories that needed time to consume, and slow trading of terminal soy products restricted the operating rate of soybean product factories and raw soybean purchases [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term outlook for urea is weak, while the medium - term outlook is volatile. The driving force is currently neutral. With the suppression of speculative activities in the fertilizer sector by sulfur and phosphate policies, spot trading has weakened, and the price is expected to experience a short - term weak correction. As the 01 contract approaches delivery, the increase in warehouse receipts is significant, and the futures price is expected to face downward pressure in a volatile manner. The subsequent driving force depends on the continuity of mid - stream inventory replenishment. The fundamental situation provides support for the price due to the continuous reduction of explicit inventory. The upper resistance level for the 01 contract is 1700 - 1720 yuan/ton, and the lower static support level is 1580 - 1600 yuan/ton [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Supply - Production: In the week from December 4th to 10th, 2025, China's urea production was 1385,400 tons, a 0.02% increase from the previous period. Two new plants stopped production, and five restarted. Next week, the production is expected to be around 1.39 million tons, with limited fluctuations. In the next cycle, two plants are expected to stop production, and one may restart. The production capacity expansion pattern of urea in 2025 continues, with 664 million tons of new production capacity added in 2025 [2][23]. - Production Cost: Raw material prices have stabilized, and the cash - flow cost line of factories has risen. The cash - flow cost of urea production currently corresponds to a profitable state [29][34]. - Import and Export: In the reserve period, export policies have tightened. As of December 11, the 50th week of 2025, the sample inventory at Chinese urea ports was 123,000 tons, a 17.14% increase from the previous week. The impact of urea exports on the market is weakening [2][40]. Demand - Agricultural Demand: Agricultural demand is seasonally strong. The construction of high - standard farmland has increased the demand for urea from corn. The production cost, inventory, and production profit of compound fertilizers show certain trends, and the capacity utilization rate also has fluctuations [46][49]. - Industrial Demand: The fundamentals of compound fertilizers, melamine, and the demand for panels in the real estate industry have different characteristics. The demand for panels in the real estate industry has limited support, but panel exports are resilient [55][56][61]. Inventory - Factory Inventory: On December 10th, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 1.2342 million tons, a 4.36% decrease from the previous week. The inventory decreased in some provinces and increased in others [2][67]. - Port Inventory: The sample inventory at Chinese urea ports was 123,000 tons, a 17.14% increase from the previous week. The ports with increased inventory are Tianjin Port and Longkou Port for small - particle urea [2][67]. International Market - International Urea Prices: The report presents the price trends of Chinese large - particle urea FOB, Baltic large - particle urea FOB, Middle East large - particle urea FOB, and Brazilian large - particle urea CFR from 2018 to 2025 [70][71][72][73][74].