Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - On August 12, the current-month contracts of the four major index futures all rose. The overall trading volume of index futures declined, indicating a decrease in investors' trading enthusiasm. The overall open interest of all four major index futures decreased [1][2]. - The trend strength of IF and IH is 1, and that of IC and IM is also 1. The market is in a situation of global resonance, oscillating with a slight upward bias [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Index Futures Data Tracking - **IF Series**: The closing price of the underlying CSI 300 was 4143.83, up 0.52%. Among the futures contracts, IF2508 closed at 4144.4, up 0.52%, with a basis of 0.57; IF2509 closed at 4131.2, up 0.51%, with a basis of -12.63; IF2512 closed at 4102, up 0.51%, with a basis of -41.83; IF2603 closed at 4069.6, up 0.51%, with a basis of -74.23. The total trading volume decreased by 1165 lots, and the total open interest decreased by 8595 lots [1][2]. - **IH Series**: The closing price of the underlying SSE 50 was 2807.01, up 0.61%. Among the futures contracts, IH2508 closed at 2809.8, up 0.62%, with a basis of 2.79; IH2509 closed at 2809.6, up 0.61%, with a basis of 2.59; IH2512 closed at 2811.4, up 0.64%, with a basis of 4.39; IH2603 closed at 2811, up 0.64%, with a basis of 3.99. The total trading volume increased by 8277 lots, and the total open interest decreased by 1720 lots [1][2]. - **IC Series**: The closing price of the underlying CSI 500 was 6418.16, up 0.41%. Among the futures contracts, IC2508 closed at 6409.2, up 0.52%, with a basis of -8.96; IC2509 closed at 6342.6, up 0.52%, with a basis of -75.56; IC2512 closed at 6190, up 0.58%, with a basis of -228.16; IC2603 closed at 6051.6, up 0.54%, with a basis of -366.56. The total trading volume decreased by 14462 lots, and the total open interest decreased by 9999 lots [1][2]. - **IM Series**: The closing price of the underlying CSI 1000 was 6963.61, up 0.28%. Among the futures contracts, IM2508 closed at 6954.2, up 0.31%, with a basis of -9.41; IM2509 closed at 6883.6, up 0.31%, with a basis of -80.01; IM2512 closed at 6694.2, up 0.30%, with a basis of -269.41; IM2603 closed at 6512, up 0.30%, with a basis of -451.61. The total trading volume decreased by 38939 lots, and the total open interest decreased by 20490 lots [1][2]. 2. Top 20 Member Open Interest Changes - **IF Contracts**: For IF2508, long positions decreased by 5297 lots, with a net change of -8242 lots; short positions decreased by 5061 lots, with a net change of -7997 lots. For IF2509, long positions decreased by 2979 lots, and short positions decreased by 2507 lots. For IF2512, long positions increased by 344 lots, and short positions decreased by 254 lots. For IF2603, long positions decreased by 310 lots, and short positions decreased by 175 lots [5]. - **IH Contracts**: For IH2508, long positions decreased by 1110 lots, with a net change of -1400 lots; short positions decreased by 1003 lots, with a net change of -1056 lots. For IH2509, long positions increased by 76 lots, and short positions increased by 416 lots. For IH2512, long positions decreased by 366 lots, and short positions decreased by 469 lots. The data for IH2603 was not announced [5]. - **IC Contracts**: For IC2508, long positions decreased by 4194 lots, with a net change of -9005 lots; short positions decreased by 4730 lots, with a net change of -8928 lots. For IC2509, long positions decreased by 2972 lots, and short positions decreased by 2715 lots. For IC2512, long positions decreased by 1306 lots, and short positions decreased by 1069 lots. For IC2603, long positions decreased by 533 lots, and short positions decreased by 414 lots [5]. - **IM Contracts**: For IM2508, long positions decreased by 8911 lots, with a net change of -16351 lots; short positions decreased by 9453 lots, with a net change of -17297 lots. For IM2509, long positions decreased by 5810 lots, and short positions decreased by 6384 lots. For IM2512, long positions decreased by 1630 lots, and short positions decreased by 1460 lots. The data for IM2603 was not announced [5]. 3. Important Drivers - **Policy News**: China and the US issued the Joint Statement of the China-US Stockholm Economic and Trade Talks. Both sides will continue to suspend the implementation of 24% reciprocal tariffs for 90 days. The three departments jointly issued the Implementation Plan for the Fiscal Interest Subsidy Policy for Personal Consumption Loans, and eligible personal consumption loans can enjoy the interest subsidy policy [6]. - **Global Market Conditions**: Inflation data strengthened the expectation of interest rate cuts. The Nasdaq and S&P reached new highs, Ethereum rose 9%, and the Russell small-cap index soared 3%. The 2-year US Treasury yield fell nearly 3 basis points, the US dollar fell 0.47%, gold fluctuated widely around $3350, and crude oil closed lower [6]. - **A-share Market**: The A-share market continued its slow-bull pattern. The STAR 50 led the rise, and the ChiNext Index broke through its previous high. More than 3100 stocks closed lower, and market divergence intensified before reaching new highs [6].

2025 年 08 月 13 日 品 研 究 吴光静 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011992 wuguangjing@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 豆粕/豆一基本面数据 豆粕：USDA 报告利多，连粕跟随美豆上涨 豆一：豆类市场氛围偏多，盘面或反弹 8 月 12 日 CBOT 大豆日评：大豆上涨，因产量低于预期且供应紧张。北京德润林 2025 年 8 月 13 日 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 期货研究 | | | （日盘） 收盘价 涨 跌 | 收盘价 （夜盘） 涨 跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | DCE豆一2511 （元/吨） | 4034 -29 （-0.71%） | 4035 +2 （+0.05%） | | 期 货 | DCE豆粕2601 （元/吨） | +22 （+0.72%） 3091 | +18（+0.59%） 3092 | | | CBOT大豆11 （美分/蒲） | 1032.25 +22.00（+2.18%） | | | | CBOT豆粕12 （美元/短吨） | 291.8 +1.9 （+0.66% ...

Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - PX has a weak unilateral trend, with the main contract shifting positions. The 1 - 5 month - spread is in a reverse arbitrage. Although weekend sales volume boosts the overall price of the industrial chain, it doesn't change the medium - term weak trend. PXN has short - term support starting from late August [7]. - PTA has a weak unilateral trend. Hold the mid - term position of long MEG and short PTA. Under low processing fees, pay attention to the support of unplanned production cuts on PTA processing fees, and conduct 1 - 5 reverse arbitrage. PTA supply decreases while demand increases, but high坯布 inventory and weak crude oil prices affect its performance [8]. - MEG has a weak and oscillating unilateral trend. Hold the mid - term position of long MEG and short PTA. Keep the 9 - 1 spread in the range of - 50 to 0 and pay attention to 1 - 5 reverse arbitrage. This week, both supply and demand of ethylene glycol increase, but the near - end driving force for the industrial chain is weak [9]. Market Dynamics PX - On the 12th, the price of PX decreased, with an Asian spot for October trading at 834. There was no negotiation for September at the end of the session, and the negotiation ranges for October and November were 833/840 and 821/837 respectively. The 9/10 swap changed from +5 to -1 on the 12th. The news of a 90 - day extension of the Sino - US tariff truce buffered the loss in the PX market, and crude oil futures rose during the session. The PX - naphtha price spread narrowed to 263.67 dollars/ton [5]. PTA - A 700,000 - ton PTA plant in Taiwan, China, stopped on the weekend, and the restart time is to be tracked. A 2.2 - million - ton PTA plant in East China is currently restarting after a maintenance starting around August 1st [6]. MEG - From August 11th to 17th, the expected arrival quantities at Zhangjiagang, Taicang, Ningbo, and Shanghai ports are 46,000 tons, 95,000 tons, 0 tons, and 0 tons respectively, with a total expected arrival at major ports of about 141,000 tons [6]. Polyester - On the 12th, the sales of direct - spun polyester staple fibers were average, with an average sales - to - production ratio of 52%. The sales of polyester yarns in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were weak, with an estimated average sales - to - production ratio of 30% - 40% [6][7]. Trend Intensity - PX trend intensity is -1, indicating a weak trend [7]. - PTA trend intensity is -1, indicating a weak trend [7]. - MEG trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral trend [7]. Futures and Spot Data Futures - PX, PTA, MEG, PF, and SC had price increases of 0.80%, 0.42%, 0.41%, 0.37%, and 1.19% respectively. The 9 - 1 month - spreads of PX, PTA, MEG, PF, and SC changed by 18, -8, -3, -14, and -1.3 respectively [4]. Spot - The prices of PX CFR China, PTA in East China, MEG spot, naphtha MOPJ, and Dated Brent changed by -1, 10, 18, 2, and -0.49 respectively. The PX - naphtha price spread, PTA processing fee, short - fiber processing fee, bottle - chip processing fee, and MOPJ naphtha - Dubai crude oil spread changed by -7.5, 25.77, 24.14, 23.07, and 0 respectively [4].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2) Core View The continuous decrease in LME lead inventory supports the lead price [1]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs [Fundamental Tracking] - **Price**: The closing price of the main Shanghai lead futures contract was 16,915 yuan/ton, up 0.18%; the closing price of the LME 3M electronic lead contract was 1,997.5 dollars/ton, down 0.30% [1]. - **Volume**: The trading volume of the main Shanghai lead futures contract was 29,986 lots, a decrease of 5,637 lots; the trading volume of LME lead was 4,046 lots, a decrease of 1,309 lots [1]. - **Open Interest**: The open interest of the main Shanghai lead futures contract was 51,223 lots, a decrease of 3,172 lots; the open interest of LME lead was 151,920 lots, an increase of 369 lots [1]. - **Premium and Discount**: The premium of Shanghai 1 lead was -35 yuan/ton, unchanged; the LME CASH - 3M premium was -35.5 dollars/ton, a decrease of 4.21 dollars/ton [1]. - **Import and Export Profit and Loss**: The spot import profit and loss of lead ingots was -641.32 yuan/ton, an increase of 86.7 yuan/ton; the import profit and loss of Shanghai lead continuous - three contract was -631.96 yuan/ton, an increase of 56.84 yuan/ton [1]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of Shanghai lead futures was 59,791 tons, an increase of 1,108 tons; the LME lead inventory was 262,250 tons, a decrease of 3,550 tons; the LME lead cancelled warrants were 66,025 tons, a decrease of 3,550 tons [1]. - **Recycled Lead**: The price of waste electric vehicle batteries was 10,200 yuan/ton, an increase of 25 yuan/ton; the price of recycled refined lead was 16,775 yuan/ton, an increase of 25 yuan/ton; the comprehensive profit and loss of recycled lead was -404 yuan/ton, a decrease of 26 yuan/ton [1]. [News] - The China - US Stockholm economic and trade talks joint statement announced that starting from August 12, 2025, the implementation of the 24% tariff will be suspended again for 90 days [1]. - The US CPI in July increased by 2.7% year - on - year, lower than expected, while the core CPI growth rate reached the highest level since February [1]. [Lead Trend Intensity] The lead trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral view. The trend intensity ranges from -2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [1].

2025 年 8 月 13 日 李亚飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021184 liyafei2@gtht.com 金园园（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03134630 jinyuanyuan2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 螺纹钢：板块情绪不减，宽幅震荡 热轧卷板：板块情绪不减，宽幅震荡 螺纹钢、热轧卷板基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 （元/吨） | 涨跌 （元/吨） | 涨跌幅 （%） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | RB2510 | 3,258 | 31 | 0.96 | | 期 货 | HC2510 | 3,484 | 48 | 1.40 | | | | 昨日成交 （手） | 昨日持仓 （手） | 持仓变动 （手） | | | RB2510 | 1,141,600 | 1,605,388 | -7,237 | | | HC2510 | 488,547 | 1,381,560 | 6,551 | | | | 昨日价格 （元/吨） | 前日价格 （元/吨） | 涨跌 （元/吨） | | | 上海 杭州 | 3370 3420 | 3360 3410 | 1 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the lithium carbonate industry is "Range-bound" [1] Core Viewpoints - The trend intensity of lithium carbonate is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **2509 Contract**: The closing price was 82,560, with a volume of 162,667 and an open interest of 117,650. Compared to previous periods, there were significant changes in volume and open interest [2] - **2511 Contract**: The closing price was 82,520, with a large volume of 1,417,704 and an open interest of 356,998. Volume and open interest also showed notable fluctuations [2] - **Warehouse Receipts**: The warehouse receipt volume was 20,829 hands, with changes compared to previous periods [2] - **Basis**: The basis between different contracts and product grades showed various changes [2] - **Raw Materials**: Lithium concentrate prices and other raw material prices changed compared to previous periods [2] - **Lithium Salts**: Prices of battery - grade lithium carbonate, industrial - grade lithium carbonate, and other lithium salts increased compared to the previous day [2][3] - **Downstream Products**: Prices of products such as lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials also had different degrees of change [2] Macro and Industry News - SMM's battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 78,124 yuan/ton, up 3,557 yuan/ton from the previous day. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 78,000 yuan/ton, and that of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 75,800 yuan/ton, both up 3,500 yuan/ton [3] - The Lithium Industry Branch of the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association issued an initiative to relevant enterprises in the lithium industry chain to strengthen upstream - downstream collaboration, maintain industrial safety, and resist "involution - style" vicious competition [4]

期 货 研 究 2025 年 08 月 13 日 白糖：内外共振上行 周小球 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0001891 zhouxiaoqiu@gtjas.com 高频信息：巴西中南部 7 月上半月压榨进度加快；印度季风降水量阶段性减弱；巴西 6 月出口 336 万 吨，同比增加 5%。中国 6 月进口食糖 42 万吨。 国内市场：CAOC 预计 24/25 榨季国内食糖产量为 1116 万吨，消费量为 1580 万吨，进口量为 500 万吨； CAOC 预计 25/26 榨季国内食糖产量为 1120 万吨，消费量为 1590 万吨，进口量为 500 万吨。中国糖业协会 数据显示，截至 5 月底，24/25 榨季全国共生产食糖 1116 万吨（+120 万吨），全国累计销售食糖 811 万吨 （+152 万吨），累计销糖率 72.7%。中国海关数据显示，截至 6 月底，24/25 榨季中国累计进口食糖 251 万吨 （-65 万吨）。25/26 榨季，市场预期广西出糖率下降、生产成本上升。 国际市场：ISO 预计 24/25 榨季全球食糖供应短缺 547 万吨 (前值短缺 488 万吨)。UNICA 数据显示，截 ...

Report Summary 1) Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2) Core View - The report indicates that the caustic soda market will experience short - term fluctuations. The cost support for caustic soda is strong due to the weak performance of liquid chlorine, and there are expectations for peak - season demand. The upcoming alumina production capacity in Guangxi and strong export support will affect the domestic caustic soda market [3]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - On August 13, 2025, the 09 - contract futures price was 2502, the price of the cheapest deliverable 32 - alkali spot in Shandong was 800, the Shandong spot 32 - alkali converted to the futures price was 2500, and the basis was - 2 [1]. Spot News - Based on the Shandong region, the price of 32 - alkali in the Shandong market remained stable overall. The demand from surrounding areas for high - concentration caustic soda supported partial shipments, and some manufacturers raised the price of high - concentration caustic soda [2]. Market Condition Analysis - In terms of cost, the weak liquid chlorine market strengthens the cost support for caustic soda. There are still expectations for peak - season demand, especially with the expected commissioning of 3.6 billion tons of alumina production capacity in Guangxi by the end of this year, which will lead to a tight supply of caustic soda in the region. The alumina inventory build - up will drive the circulation of domestic 50 - alkali. The export support remains strong, but the domestic caustic soda price will be affected by the inventory - building rhythm [3]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of caustic soda is 1, indicating a relatively strong trend [3].

Report Summary Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The report focuses on the industrial silicon and polysilicon markets, tracking their fundamentals, including futures market data, basis, prices, profits, inventory, and raw material costs [2]. - On August 11, a government - business symposium on the crystalline silicon photovoltaic industry was held in Baotou, with enterprises expressing confidence in the industry and their development in the area [2][4]. - The trend intensity for both industrial silicon and polysilicon is 0, indicating a neutral view [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Fundamentals Tracking - **Futures Market**: For industrial silicon, the Si2511 closing price was 8,840 yuan/ton, down 160 yuan from T - 1. Its trading volume was 520,504 lots, down 141,692 lots from T - 1, and the open interest was 278,860 lots, up 6,917 lots from T - 1. For polysilicon, the PS2511 closing price was 51,800 yuan/ton, down 1,185 yuan from T - 1, the trading volume was 481,809 lots, down 111,013 lots from T - 1, and the open interest was 136,055 lots, down 3,684 lots from T - 1 [2]. - **Basis**: The industrial silicon spot premium (against East China Si5530) was +600 yuan/ton, up from 95 yuan/ton at T - 1. The polysilicon spot premium (against N - type re - injection) was - 4,800 yuan/ton, down from 1,185 yuan/ton at T - 1 [2]. - **Prices**: The price of Xinjiang 99 - silicon was 8,800 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan from T - 1. The price of Yunnan Si4210 was 10,000 yuan/ton, unchanged from T - 1. The price of polysilicon N - type re - injection material was 47,000 yuan/ton, unchanged from T - 1 [2]. - **Profits**: The profit of silicon plants in Xinjiang (new standard 553) was - 2,461 yuan/ton, down 160 yuan from T - 1, and in Yunnan (new standard 553) was - 3,199 yuan/ton, down 160 yuan from T - 1. The profit of polysilicon enterprises was - 16.9 yuan/kg, up 0.4 yuan from T - 1 [2]. - **Inventory**: Industrial silicon's social inventory (including warehouse receipt inventory) was 54.7 tons, with an increase of 0.7 tons compared to T - 5. Polysilicon's factory inventory was 23.3 tons, with an increase of 0.4 tons compared to T - 5 [2]. - **Raw Material Costs**: The price of silicon ore in Xinjiang was 340 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of washed coking coal in Xinjiang was 1,250 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 2. Macro and Industry News On August 11, the Baotou government held a symposium with 10 crystalline silicon photovoltaic enterprises. Enterprises expressed confidence in the industry and their development in Baotou and were willing to deepen cooperation [2][4]. 3. Trend Intensity The trend intensity of industrial silicon and polysilicon is 0, indicating a neutral market view [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - For palm oil, the origin has strong supply and demand, and it is recommended to go long at low levels [2]. - For soybean oil, the reduction of US soybean planting area provides a theme for price increases [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Prices and Changes**: Palm oil closed at 9,362 yuan/ton during the day session with a 1.56% increase and 9,414 yuan/ton at night with a 0.56% increase; soybean oil closed at 8,488 yuan/ton during the day session with a 0.38% increase and 8,516 yuan/ton at night with a 0.33% increase; rapeseed oil closed at 9,802 yuan/ton during the day session with a 2.23% increase and 10,079 yuan/ton at night with a 2.83% increase [3]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest Changes**: Palm oil trading volume decreased by 124,344 lots to 443,030 lots, and open interest decreased by 29,322 lots to 270,663 lots; soybean oil trading volume decreased by 23,809 lots to 140,203 lots, and open interest decreased by 28,769 lots to 306,250 lots; rapeseed oil trading volume increased by 77,172 lots to 271,285 lots, and open interest decreased by 8,561 lots to 117,479 lots [3]. - **Spot Prices and Changes**: The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 9,260 yuan/ton, up 280 yuan/ton; the spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Guangdong was 8,650 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of imported fourth - grade rapeseed oil in Guangxi was 9,690 yuan/ton, up 120 yuan/ton [3]. - **Basis and Spread**: The basis of palm oil in Guangdong was - 102 yuan/ton; the basis of soybean oil in Guangdong was 162 yuan/ton; the basis of rapeseed oil in Guangxi was - 112 yuan/ton. The spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil futures was 448 yuan/ton; the spread between soybean oil and palm oil futures was - 886 yuan/ton [3]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Anti - Dumping Investigation**: The Ministry of Commerce announced the preliminary ruling on the anti - dumping investigation of imported rapeseed from Canada, imposing a 75.8% deposit rate on all Canadian companies, causing a 4.5% drop in ICE Canadian rapeseed futures [4][5]. - **Tariff Adjustment**: Starting from 12:01 on August 12, 2025, the 24% additional tariff on US imports will be suspended for 90 days, while the 10% additional tariff will be retained [5]. - **US Soybean Supply and Demand**: According to the August USDA supply - demand report, the expected US soybean production for 2025/2026 is 4.292 billion bushels, the expected ending inventory is 290 million bushels, and the expected yield is 53.6 bushels per acre [5]. - **Indian Oil Imports**: Indian soybean oil imports in 2024/25 are expected to soar 60% year - on - year to 5.5 million tons, while palm oil imports may drop 13.5% to 7.8 million tons, and sunflower oil imports may drop 20% to 2.8 million tons [6]. - **Malaysian Palm Oil Inventory**: Malaysian palm oil inventory reached a 19 - month high of 2.11 million tons in July. Analysts expect the inventory to remain above 2 million tons, with prices likely to decline in Q3 and rise in Q4 [7]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of palm oil is 1, and that of soybean oil is also 1, indicating a neutral trend [7].