Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The news about cotton import quotas has boosted cotton prices. The US Department of Agriculture's August supply - demand report was bullish for ICE cotton futures, with significant cuts in US cotton planting area and production in the 2025/26 season, leading to a reduction in ending stocks [1][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: CF2601 closed at 13,980 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.72% and a night - session close of 14,090 yuan/ton with a 0.79% increase. CY2511 closed at 20,015 yuan/ton with a 1.14% daily increase and a night - session close of 20,075 yuan/ton with a 0.30% increase. ICE cotton 12 rose 2.39% to 68.44 cents/pound [1]. - **Spot Data**: The prices of various cotton and yarn types showed minor changes. For example, the price of North Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton increased by 30 yuan/ton to 15,042 yuan/ton, a 0.20% increase [1]. - **Spread Data**: The CF9 - 1 spread was - 245 yuan/ton, a 45 - yuan decrease from the previous day. The spread between North Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton and CF509 was 1,060 yuan/ton, a 70 - yuan decrease from the previous day [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Domestic Cotton Spot**: Cotton spot trading changed little, with a slight improvement in some areas. The spot basis was generally stable. Different grades of cotton had specific sales basis ranges [2]. - **Domestic Cotton Textile Enterprises**: The trading in the pure - cotton yarn market was average but slightly improved due to downstream restocking. Spinning mills were reducing inventory, and the operating rate remained stable [2]. - **US Cotton**: The US Department of Agriculture's August supply - demand report cut the 2025/26 US cotton planting area to 9.28 million acres (down 840,000 acres from the July report), production to 13.21 million bales (down 1.39 million bales), exports by 500,000 bales, and ending stocks to 3.6 million bales (down 1 million bales) [3]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The cotton trend intensity was 0, indicating a neutral outlook [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The trend strength is -2, indicating the most bearish outlook [2] 2. Core Viewpoints - In August, the planned slaughter volume of large - scale pig farms increases, small - scale farmers are forced to hold back pigs, demand growth is limited, and market pressure is high. The daily trading volume is poor, and it's difficult to absorb market supply. The September contract is in the pre - delivery month, and the second position limit starts on the tenth trading day. The futures price is still at a large premium to the warehouse receipt cost, and the industry's willingness to deliver is increasing. Pay attention to the premium - narrowing market. The macro sentiment has strong support for the far - end contracts, resulting in a pattern of weak current situation and strong expectations. The spread structure maintains a reverse spread, and attention should be paid to stop - loss and take - profit. The short - term support level for the LH2509 contract is 13,000 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 14,500 yuan/ton [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Spot Prices**: The Henan spot price is 13,880 yuan/ton, the Sichuan spot price is 13,350 yuan/ton (up 50 yuan/ton), and the Guangdong spot price is 15,290 yuan/ton [1] - **Futures Prices**: The price of the LH2509 contract is 13,965 yuan/ton (down 5 yuan/ton), and the price of the LH2511 contract is 14,230 yuan/ton (up 90 yuan/ton) [1] 3.2 Market Logic - **Supply and Demand**: In August, the supply pressure is high due to the increase in the planned slaughter volume of large - scale farms and the forced pig - holding of small - scale farmers, while demand growth is limited. The daily trading volume is poor, and it's difficult to absorb the supply [3] - **Contract Features**: The September contract is in the pre - delivery month, and the second position limit starts on the tenth trading day. The futures price is at a large premium to the warehouse receipt cost, and the industry's willingness to deliver is increasing [3] - **Market Structure**: There is a pattern of weak current situation and strong expectations, and the spread structure maintains a reverse spread. The short - term support level for the LH2509 contract is 13,000 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 14,500 yuan/ton [3] 3.3 Futures Trading Data - **Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the LH2509 contract is 6,369 lots (up 41 lots), and the open interest is 21,908 lots (down 2,631 lots); the trading volume of the LH2511 contract is 26,871 lots (down 3,086 lots), and the open interest is 60,882 lots (down 1,419 lots); the trading volume of the LH2601 contract is 9,819 lots (down 928 lots), and the open interest is 44,835 lots (up 218 lots) [4] - **Basis and Spread**: The basis of the LH2509 contract is - 95 yuan/ton, the basis of the LH2511 contract is - 195 yuan/ton, the basis of the LH2601 contract is 30 yuan/ton, the spread between the LH2509 and LH2511 contracts is - 350 yuan/ton, and the spread between the LH2511 and LH2601 contracts is - 545 yuan/ton [4]

2025年08月13日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-绿色金融与新能源 观点与策略 | 镍：矿端支撑逻辑削弱，冶炼端逻辑限制弹性 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 不锈钢：多空博弈加剧，钢价震荡运行 | 2 | | 碳酸锂：区间震荡 | 4 | | 工业硅：上游逐步复产，关注市场情绪 | 6 | | 多晶硅：关注市场信息扰动 | 6 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 8 月 13 日 镍：矿端支撑逻辑削弱，冶炼端逻辑限制弹性 不锈钢：多空博弈加剧，钢价震荡运行 张再宇 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021479 zhangzaiyu@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 镍基本面数据 | | | 指标名称 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-10 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 沪镍主力（收盘价） | 122,440 | 310 | 1,530 | 640 | 1,050 | -3,690 | | 期 | ...

Report Overview - Report Date: August 13, 2025 [1][8][12][16][19][20] - Report Source: Guotai Junan Futures Research Institute - Covered Commodities: Iron ore, rebar, hot-rolled coil, ferrosilicon, silicomanganese, coke, coking coal, and logs Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - Iron ore: Expected to fluctuate repeatedly [2][7] - Rebar and hot-rolled coil: Market sentiment remains strong, with wide-range fluctuations [2][8] - Ferrosilicon and silicomanganese: Expected to experience wide-range fluctuations [2][12] - Coke and coking coal: Expected to show a moderately strong upward trend [2][16] - Logs: Expected to fluctuate repeatedly [2][19] Summary by Commodity Iron Ore - **Fundamental Data**: The previous day's closing price was 807.5 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan or 1.38%. Open interest decreased by 41,863 lots to 230,026 lots. Imported ore prices rose, with the price of Carajás fines (65%) increasing by 9 yuan to 888 yuan/ton [5]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Starting from 12:01 on August 12, 2025, the additional tariff measures on US imports will be adjusted, with the 24% additional tariff rate suspended for 90 days, while the 10% rate will be retained [6]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 (neutral) [6] Rebar and Hot-Rolled Coil - **Fundamental Data**: The closing prices of RB2510 and HC2510 were 3,258 yuan/ton and 3,484 yuan/ton, up 0.96% and 1.40% respectively. Rebar open interest decreased by 7,237 lots, while hot-rolled coil open interest increased by 6,551 lots. Spot prices in major cities generally rose [8]. - **Macro and Industry News**: In late July 2025, the steel inventory of key steel enterprises decreased by 5.6% month-on-month. In July, automobile production and sales decreased month-on-month but increased year-on-year. In late July, the daily average production of crude steel decreased by 7.4% month-on-month, while the daily average production of steel increased by 0.5% month-on-month [9][10]. - **Trend Intensity**: 1 (moderately strong) for both rebar and hot-rolled coil [10] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Fundamental Data**: The closing prices of ferrosilicon 2509 and 2510 were 5,820 yuan/ton and 5,812 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan and 8 yuan respectively. The closing prices of silicomanganese 2509 and 2510 were 6,110 yuan/ton and 6,124 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan and 12 yuan respectively. The price of manganese ore increased by 0.3 yuan/ton degree to 40.5 yuan/ton degree [12]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On August 12, the prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese in different regions were reported. Some steel mills' ferrosilicon and silicomanganese procurement prices increased [13]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 (neutral) for both ferrosilicon and silicomanganese [15] Coke and Coking Coal - **Fundamental Data**: The closing prices of JM2509 and J2509 were 1,162.5 yuan/ton and 1,730 yuan/ton, up 5.1% and 2.9% respectively. Open interest decreased for both. Spot prices of coking coal and coke were mostly stable [16]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Starting from 12:01 on August 12, 2025, the additional tariff measures on US imports will be adjusted, with the 24% additional tariff rate suspended for 90 days, while the 10% rate will be retained [18]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 (neutral) for both coke and coking coal [18] Logs - **Fundamental Data**: The closing prices of the 2509, 2511, and 2601 contracts showed slight fluctuations. Trading volume and open interest also showed different trends. Spot prices in the Shandong and Jiangsu markets were mostly stable [20]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Starting from 12:01 on August 12, 2025, the additional tariff measures on US imports will be adjusted, with the 24% additional tariff rate suspended for 90 days, while the 10% rate will be retained [22]. - **Trend Intensity**: 1 (moderately strong) [22]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Core Views - Palm oil: With both supply and demand booming in the producing areas, a strategy of buying on dips is recommended [2][5] - Soybean oil: The reduction in the US soybean planting area provides a theme for price increases [2][5] - Soybean meal: The USDA report is bullish, and the Dalian soybean meal futures follow the rise of US soybeans [2][12] - Soybean: The atmosphere in the soybean market is bullish, and the futures price may rebound [2][12] - Corn: It is expected to move in a range [2][17] - Sugar: Both domestic and international markets are showing upward momentum [2][20] - Cotton: News related to import quotas boosts cotton prices [2][25] - Eggs: There is a sentiment of price rebound in the spot market [2][30] - Hogs: Near - term contracts have position limits, and the industrial sector has a strong willingness to deliver [2][32] - Peanuts: Attention should be paid to the spot market [2][36] Summary by Related Catalogs Palm Oil, Soybean Oil, and Rapeseed Oil - **Fundamental Tracking**: Palm oil's daily - session closing price was 9,362 yuan/ton with a 1.56% increase, and the night - session closing price was 9,414 yuan/ton with a 0.56% increase. For soybean oil, the daily - session closing price was 8,488 yuan/ton with a 0.38% increase, and the night - session closing price was 8,516 yuan/ton with a 0.33% increase. Rapeseed oil had a significant increase, with the daily - session closing price at 9,802 yuan/ton (+2.23%) and the night - session closing price at 10,079 yuan/ton (+2.83%) [6] - **Macro and Industry News**: The Ministry of Commerce announced a preliminary anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed, imposing a 75.8% deposit rate. ICE Canadian rapeseed futures closed sharply lower, with the benchmark contract down 4.5%. The US will continue to suspend the 24% additional tariff on US imports for 90 days, retaining a 10% tariff. According to the USDA's August supply - demand report, the US 2025/2026 soybean production is expected to be 4.292 billion bushels, lower than the market expectation of 4.365 billion bushels. Indian 2024/25 soybean oil imports are expected to soar 60% year - on - year, while palm oil imports may reach a five - year low. Malaysian palm oil inventories are expected to remain high [7][9][10] Soybean Meal and Soybean - **Fundamental Tracking**: DCE soybean 2511 closed at 4,034 yuan/ton in the daily session (-0.71%) and 4,035 yuan/ton in the night session (+0.05%). DCE soybean meal 2601 closed at 3,091 yuan/ton in the daily session (+0.72%) and 3,092 yuan/ton in the night session (+0.59%) [12] - **Macro and Industry News**: On August 12, CBOT soybean futures rose for the second consecutive day due to lower - than - expected production and tight supply. The USDA lowered the 2025/2026 soybean production forecast from 4.335 billion bushels in July to 4.292 billion bushels [12][14] Corn - **Fundamental Tracking**: The closing price of C2509 was 2,260 yuan/ton in the daily session (+0.04%) and 2,273 yuan/ton in the night session (+0.58%). The closing price of C2511 was 2,198 yuan/ton in the daily session (-0.14%) and 2,207 yuan/ton in the night session (+0.41%) [15] - **Macro and Industry News**: The northern corn collection port price was 2,250 - 2,270 yuan/ton, and the container collection price was 2,330 - 2,350 yuan/ton. The price in Guangdong Shekou was stable. Corn prices in Northeast China were weak, while those in North China showed mixed trends [16] Sugar - **Fundamental Tracking**: The raw sugar price was 16.95 cents/pound, the mainstream spot price was 5,950 yuan/ton, and the futures main - contract price was 5,608 yuan/ton [20] - **Macro and Industry News**: In Brazil, the sugar - cane crushing progress in the central - southern region accelerated in the first half of July. Indian monsoon precipitation decreased temporarily. Brazil exported 3.36 million tons of sugar in June, a 5% year - on - year increase. China imported 420,000 tons of sugar in June. CAOC estimated the domestic sugar production and consumption for the 24/25 and 25/26 seasons. ISO expected a global sugar supply shortage of 5.47 million tons in the 24/25 season [20][21][22] Cotton - **Fundamental Tracking**: The closing price of CF2601 was 13,980 yuan/ton in the daily session (+0.72%) and 14,090 yuan/ton in the night session (+0.79%). ICE cotton futures rose significantly due to the bullish USDA monthly supply - demand report, which lowered the 2025/26 US cotton planting area and production [25][27] - **Macro and Industry News**: The domestic cotton spot trading showed little change, with a slight improvement in some areas. The cotton yarn market improved slightly due to downstream restocking, but orders were still limited [26] Eggs - **Fundamental Tracking**: The closing price of egg 2509 was 3,311 yuan/500 kilograms (-0.15%), and the closing price of egg 2601 was 3,559 yuan/500 kilograms (+0.11%) [30] Hogs - **Fundamental Tracking**: The Henan spot price was 13,880 yuan/ton, the Sichuan spot price was 13,350 yuan/ton, and the Guangdong spot price was 15,290 yuan/ton. The closing price of hog 2509 was 13,965 yuan/ton (-5), and the closing price of hog 2511 was 14,230 yuan/ton (+90) [32] - **Market Logic**: The planned slaughter volume of group farms in August increased, while individual farmers had passive inventory. Demand growth was limited, and market pressure was high. The 9 - month contract entered the pre - delivery month, and the industrial delivery willingness increased [34] Peanuts - **Fundamental Tracking**: The prices of important spot peanuts in Liaoning, Henan, and other places were stable. The closing price of PK510 was 8,080 yuan/ton (+0.05%), and the closing price of PK511 was 7,944 yuan/ton (+0.20%) [36] - **Spot Market Focus**: In Henan, the supply of peanuts was affected by rain, and the price was stable. In Jiangxi, the price was slightly stronger, while in other regions, the price was generally stable [36][37]

Report Summary Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - It is recommended that deficit enterprises make batch purchases at low prices before the end of August [4] - The depletion of mandatory circulation quotas may support a carbon price reversal, with signs possibly seen in Q3. Carbon prices may fluctuate before August and start to rise in September due to increasing compliance pressure [6] Summary by Directory Market Quotes - CEA: The main target continued to be weak, with 72,000 tons listed and 746,000 tons in bulk transactions [13] - CCER: The listed agreement trading volume was 80 tons, and the average transaction price was 78.97 yuan/ton (up 1.24%) [10][13] Carbon Quota (CEA) Latest Market Information | Quota | Closing Price (yuan/ton) | Change (%) | New-Old Price Difference (yuan/ton) | Bulk Transaction Average Price (yuan/ton) | Total Transaction Volume (10,000 tons) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | CEA19 - 20 | 71.34 | 0.00% | - | N/A | 0.00 | | CEA21 | 70.00 | 0.00% | -1.34 | N/A | 0.00 | | CEA22 | 73.00 | 0.00% | 3.00 | N/A | 0.00 | | CEA23 | 72.80 | -0.18% | -0.20 | 55.25 | 76.67 | | CEA24 | 72.86 | -0.46% | 0.06 | N/A | 5.08 | [8] Voluntary Emission Reduction (CCER) Transaction Information - Average transaction price: 78.97 yuan/ton, up 1.24% - Transaction amount: 59,300 yuan - Transaction volume: 80 tons - Cumulative transaction volume: 2,477,900 tons [10]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the 1980s, the Thatcher government in the UK and the Reagan government in the US implemented supply - side reforms to address the stagflation situation. These reforms shifted the policy focus from Keynesian demand management to supply - side and free - market economics, which affected industries such as steel and coal, leading to industry restructuring and ultimately promoting industry transformation and profitability improvement [2]. - Through "three removals, one reduction, and one supplementation" measures, including capacity reduction, inventory reduction, de - leveraging, cost reduction, and short - board supplementation, the two countries' economies recovered from stagflation and traditional industries achieved transformation and upgrading [8][15]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Reform Background in the 1970s and 1980s - **Stagflation in the UK and the US**: In the 1970s, both countries faced stagflation, with low economic growth, high inflation, and rising unemployment. From 1973 - 1980, the UK's GDP grew at an average annual rate of only 1.74%, inflation reached 15.2%, and the unemployment rate exceeded 10%. The US had negative GDP growth in 1974, 1975, and 1980, with inflation peaking above 14% and the unemployment rate also exceeding 10% [6]. - **Shift from Keynesian to Supply - Side Economics**: Keynesian demand - side policies failed to control unemployment and instead increased deficits and debts. The supply side faced obstacles such as large - scale losses in state - owned enterprises, frequent strikes due to union monopolies, excessive government regulations, and high marginal tax rates. The Thatcher and Reagan governments launched supply - side reforms in 1979 and 1981 respectively to revitalize the supply side and promote economic recovery [8]. - **Over - capacity and Losses in the Coal and Steel Industries**: In the late 1970s, the UK and the US entered the "de - industrialization" stage. Traditional heavy industries such as steel and machinery manufacturing were severely affected by the Middle East oil crisis and faced cost shocks. They also faced competition from Japan and the "Four Asian Tigers" and needed to transform their energy structures due to environmental protection requirements [9]. 3.2 Reform Process: "Three Removals, One Reduction, and One Supplementation" - **Capacity Reduction** - **Coal Industry**: In the UK, the number of coal mines decreased from about 200 in 1980 to 65 in 1990, the number of miners dropped from about 230,000 to 49,000, and coal production decreased from 120 million tons to about 50 million tons. In the US, policies and market factors led to capacity reduction, such as the promotion of natural gas development and environmental protection requirements [17]. - **Steel Industry**: In the UK, the "Davignon Plan" and subsequent measures led to production cuts. The British Steel Corporation (BSC) was reformed, with reduced subsidies, capacity closures, and layoffs, and achieved profitability in 1986. In the US, environmental protection laws, tax reforms, and market competition led to capacity reduction, with 3800 million tons of nominal crude steel capacity withdrawn from 1983 - 1989 and 5280 million tons from 1986 - 2003 [18][19]. - **Inventory Reduction**: In the UK, Thatcher implemented the "right - to - buy" policy, selling about 140,000 public housing units from 1979 to 1987 and earning about £16 billion in revenue [20]. - **De - leveraging**: In the UK, the government reduced the government expenditure - to - GDP ratio from 43% in the early 1980s to 38% in the early 1990s and the deficit rate from 6% to 2%. In the US, the "Gramm - Rudman - Hollings Act" was passed in 1985 to control deficits [22]. - **Cost Reduction** - **UK**: The UK reduced the top marginal personal income tax rate from 83% in 1979 to 40% in 1988, the basic tax rate from 33% to 25%, and the corporate tax rate from 52% to 35%. - **US**: The US reduced the top marginal personal income tax rate from 70% in 1981 to 28% in 1986 and the corporate income tax from 46% to 34. It also carried out government institutional reforms and cut welfare spending [23]. - **Short - board Supplementation** - **UK**: The UK supported steel enterprises in mergers, acquisitions, and production layout optimization, promoting specialization and efficiency improvement. In 1988, the BSC was reorganized into specialized subsidiaries. - **US**: The SBIR program invested $2 billion annually in small - business R & D, promoting technological breakthroughs and job creation [24]. 3.3 Policy Effects - **UK Steel Industry**: From 1975 - 1988, UK steel capacity decreased by 11.87 million tons. In 1988, the number of converters decreased by 39% compared to 1975, but production increased by 35.8%. By 1986, the number of employees in the steel industry decreased by 77.4% compared to 1972. The industry achieved world - class levels in the 1990s and turned profitable [26]. - **US Coal Industry**: The concentration of coal enterprises increased, with the output share of large - scale coal enterprises rising. Production efficiency improved, the number of employees decreased, and coal exports increased. The US became a global benchmark for coal industry modernization in the 1990s [28]. - **US Steel Industry**: The industry's transformation laid the foundation for oligopolization, lightening, and high - end development in the 1990s. The CR4 of the steel industry increased from 35% in 1985 to 70% in 2000 [29].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Group 2: Core View of the Report - The sentiment of the rebar and hot-rolled coil plate sectors resonates, with wide fluctuations [1] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: For RB2510, the closing price was 3,250 yuan/ton with a 35 yuan increase (1.09% rise), trading volume of 1,411,239 lots, and an open interest of 1,612,625 lots with an increase of 515 lots. For HC2510, the closing price was 3,465 yuan/ton with a 44 yuan increase (1.29% rise), trading volume of 566,686 lots, and an open interest of 1,375,009 lots with a decrease of 17,218 lots [1] - **Spot Price Data**: Rebar prices in Shanghai, Hangzhou, and Beijing increased by 20 - 30 yuan/ton, while the price in Guangzhou remained unchanged. Hot-rolled coil plate prices in Shanghai, Hangzhou, Tianjin, and Guangzhou increased by 10 - 40 yuan/ton, and the price of Tangshan billet decreased by 10 yuan/ton [1] - **Basis and Spread Data**: The basis of RB2510 decreased by 17 yuan/ton, and that of HC2510 decreased by 27 yuan/ton. The spreads of RB2510 - RB2601 and HC2510 - HC2601 increased by 4 yuan/ton and 5 yuan/ton respectively, while HC2601 - RB2601 decreased by 1 yuan/ton, and the spot coil - rebar spread decreased by 11 yuan/ton [1] Macro and Industry News - In late July 2025, the steel inventory of key steel enterprises was 14.78 million tons, a 5.6% decrease from the previous ten - day period, a 19.5% increase from the beginning of the year, a 4.3% decrease from the same ten - day period last month, a 7.9% decrease from the same ten - day period last year, and a 2.0% increase from the same ten - day period the year before last [2] - In July, automobile production and sales were 2.591 million and 2.593 million vehicles respectively, a 7.3% and 10.7% decrease from the previous month, and a 13.3% and 14.7% increase year - on - year. From January to July, automobile production and sales were 18.235 million and 18.269 million vehicles respectively, a 12.7% and 12% increase year - on - year [3] - In late July 2025, key steel enterprises produced 21.8 million tons of crude steel (average daily output of 1.982 million tons, a 7.4% decrease from the previous ten - day period), 20.41 million tons of pig iron (average daily output of 1.856 million tons, a 4.5% decrease from the previous ten - day period), and 23 million tons of steel (average daily output of 2.091 million tons, a 0.5% increase from the previous ten - day period) [3] - According to the weekly data of Steel Union on August 7, rebar production increased by 101,200 tons, hot - rolled coil production decreased by 79,000 tons, and the total production of five major varieties increased by 17,900 tons. The total inventory of rebar increased by 103,900 tons, that of hot - rolled coil increased by 86,800 tons, and the total inventory of five major varieties increased by 234,700 tons. The apparent demand of rebar increased by 73,800 tons, that of hot - rolled coil decreased by 137,900 tons, and the total apparent demand of five major varieties decreased by 62,900 tons [3] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of rebar and hot - rolled coil plate is 1, indicating a neutral trend [3][4]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report suggests a trading strategy of buying low and selling high within the price range of €63 - 76. There are both positive and negative factors affecting the EU carbon market. Positive factors include increased buying due to approaching compliance deadlines and strong auctions in the German primary market. Negative factors are the widening short - term marginal cost difference between gas and coal, which encourages power generation to use more natural gas [1]. 3. Market Conditions Summary Primary Market - The auction price was 72.14 euros/ton, with a 2.91% increase, and the bid - cover ratio was 1.67 [1]. - On August 8, 2025, the EUA auction price was 72.14 euros/ton, the auction volume was 160,700 tons, and the auction revenue was 115.93 million euros. On August 7, 2025, the EUA auction price was 70.10 euros/ton, the auction volume was 324,550 tons, and the auction revenue was 227.51 million euros [2]. Secondary Market - The EUA futures settlement price was 73.21 euros/ton, up 2.01%, and the trading volume was 28,200 lots, with an increase of 0.28 [1]. - On August 8, 2025, compared with August 7, 2025, the futures settlement price increased from 71.77 to 73.21 euros/ton, the trading volume increased from 2.54 to 2.82 million lots, and the open interest remained unchanged. The spot settlement price increased from 71.14 to 72.56 euros/ton, and the spot trading volume decreased from 2462 to 1602 lots [3]. 4. Strategy and Influencing Factors Strategy - The strategy is to buy low and sell high, with the price range between €63 and 76 [1]. Influencing Factors - Positive: As the compliance deadline approaches, compliance demand drives buying, and the German primary market auction is strong [1]. - Negative: The short - term marginal cost difference between gas and coal further widens, encouraging power generation to use more natural gas instead of coal [1]. - Others: Trump and Putin will meet in Alaska this Friday to discuss the Ukraine issue, and it is hinted that the final armistice agreement may involve territorial exchange [1].

Report Industry Investment Ratings The report does not explicitly provide industry investment ratings. Core Viewpoints - The market trends of various energy and chemical commodities are diverse, with some showing a downward trend, some in a shock state, and others having potential upward momentum. For example, PX and PTA are trending weakly, while rubber and paper pulp are oscillating. The report also suggests specific trading strategies for some commodities, such as going long on MEG and short on PTA/PX [2][12]. Summary by Commodity PX, PTA, MEG - **PX**: Supply-demand pressure is increasing, and the trend is weak. The short - term PXN has support, and the mid - term trend remains weak. Suggest a short - position on the main contract and a reverse spread on the monthly difference [5][12]. - **PTA**: The unilateral trend is weak. With low processing fees, pay attention to unplanned production cuts. Hold a long - MEG and short - PTA position in the medium term, and conduct a positive spread on the 9 - 1 monthly difference [5][12]. - **MEG**: The unilateral trend is weakly oscillating. Hold a long - MEG and short - PTA position in the medium term. Take profit at around 0 for the 9 - 1 positive spread and operate within the - 50 to 0 range. Pay attention to the 1 - 5 reverse spread [5][13]. Rubber - The rubber market is oscillating. The trading volume and open interest have increased, and the inventory in Qingdao has decreased. The trend strength is neutral [14][15][17]. Synthetic Rubber - The fundamentals provide support, and it operates within the valuation range. Short - term is slightly strong and oscillating, and the mid - term lacks upward driving force. The trend strength is neutral [18][20]. Asphalt - It mainly oscillates following crude oil. The production has increased, the factory inventory has accumulated, and the social inventory has decreased. The trend strength is neutral [21][35]. LLDPE - The trend still faces pressure. The macro and cost factors are unfavorable, the supply pressure is increasing, and the downstream demand is in the off - season. The trend strength is weak [36][37]. PP - Short - term short - selling should be cautious, and the trend still has pressure. The cost is weak, the demand has no obvious bright spots, and the supply pressure is increasing. The trend strength is neutral [40][41]. Caustic Soda - Bullish on the peak - season contracts. The previous decline was due to high production and low demand. The cost support is strong, and the peak - season demand is expected. The trend strength is strong [44][46]. Pulp - It is oscillating. The international pulp mills are firm on prices, the port inventory has decreased, and the downstream procurement sentiment has recovered. The trend strength is neutral [50][53]. Glass - The original sheet price is stable. The price has declined recently, and the downstream procurement enthusiasm is average. The trend strength is neutral [56][57]. Methanol - It is in a narrow - range oscillation. The supply is tightened due to maintenance and production cuts, and the terminal demand provides support. The trend strength is neutral [59][62]. Urea - It is under oscillating pressure. The enterprise inventory has decreased, and the short - term is in an interval - oscillation pattern. The trend strength is neutral [64][66]. Styrene - Focus on compressing profits. The downstream demand is weak, but pure benzene is temporarily strong. The trend strength is neutral [68][69]. Soda Ash - The spot market has little change. The market is generally weak, with prices slowly declining and weak downstream demand. The trend strength is neutral [71][72]. LPG - The disk valuation is low, and attention should be paid to the risk of position reduction. The trend strength is neutral [74]. Propylene - Supply - demand is tightening, and the price has certain support. The trend strength is strong [74]. PVC - It is weakly oscillating. The fundamentals have not improved significantly, with high production and inventory. The trend strength is weak [84][85]. Fuel Oil - The night - session is weak, and it mainly shows an oscillating trend. The low - sulfur fuel oil is in an adjustment phase, and the high - low sulfur spread in the overseas spot market has rebounded slightly. The trend strength of both is neutral [88]. Freight Index (European Line) - Hold the short positions on the October contract as appropriate. The freight rates of European and US - West routes have declined. [90]