Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Report's Core View - The production of lithium carbonate has increased this week, leading to inventory accumulation, and attention should be paid to the fermentation of the mining license renewal event [1][3] - The trend strength of lithium carbonate is 1, indicating a neutral view [3] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Disk Data**: For the 2509 contract, the closing price is 71,920 yuan, the trading volume is 209,645 lots, and the open interest is 160,551 lots; for the 2511 contract, the closing price is 72,300 yuan, the trading volume is 766,669 lots, and the open interest is 289,832 lots. The warehouse receipt volume is 16,443 lots [1] - **Basis Data**: The basis of spot - 2509 is - 820 yuan, spot - 2511 is - 1,200 yuan, 2509 - 2511 is - 380 yuan, and the difference between electric carbon and industrial carbon is 2,100 yuan [1] - **Raw Material and Lithium Salt Data**: The price of spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) is 757 yuan, the price of lithium mica (2.0% - 2.5%) is 1,750 yuan, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 71,100 yuan, and the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 69,000 yuan, etc. [1] 2. Macro and Industry News - The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price is 70,949 yuan/ton, up 218 yuan/ton from the previous working day; the average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 7.11 million yuan/ton, up 150 yuan/ton; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 6.9 million yuan/ton, up 150 yuan/ton [2] 3. Production and Inventory - This week, the production of lithium carbonate is 19,556 tons, an increase of 2,288 tons from last week, and the industry inventory is 142,418 tons, an increase of 692 tons from last week [3]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the report industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoint - The sugar market is in a period of oscillation, with a trend strength of 0, indicating a neutral outlook [1][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Content 3.1. Fundamental Data - The raw sugar price is 16.03 cents/pound, down 0.01 from the previous period; the mainstream spot price is 5950 yuan/ton, down 20; the futures main contract price is 5667 yuan/ton, down 16. The 91 spread is 82 yuan/ton, up 27; the 15 spread is 42 yuan/ton, down 18; the mainstream spot basis is 283 yuan/ton, down 4 [1] 3.2. Macro and Industry News - High - frequency information shows that the sugar - cane crushing progress in the central - southern region of Brazil has accelerated; the monsoon rainfall in India is higher than the Long - Period Average (LPA); Brazil exported 336 million tons of sugar in June, a 5% year - on - year increase. China imported 42 million tons of sugar in June [1] 3.3. Domestic Market - CAOC predicts that the domestic sugar production in the 24/25 sugar - making season will be 1.116 billion tons, consumption will be 1.58 billion tons, and imports will be 500 million tons; in the 25/26 sugar - making season, production will be 1.12 billion tons, consumption will be 1.59 billion tons, and imports will be 500 million tons. As of the end of May in the 24/25 sugar - making season, the national sugar production was 1.116 billion tons (+120 million tons), cumulative sales were 811 million tons (+152 million tons), and the cumulative sales rate was 72.7%. As of the end of June, the cumulative sugar imports in the 24/25 sugar - making season were 251 million tons (-65 million tons) [2] 3.4. International Market - ISO predicts a global sugar supply shortage of 547 million tons in the 24/25 sugar - making season (previously 488 million tons). As of July 16 in the 25/26 sugar - making season, the cumulative sugar - cane crushing volume in the central - southern region of Brazil decreased by 9.6 percentage points year - on - year, with cumulative sugar production of 1.566 billion tons (-159 million tons), and the cumulative MIX was 51.02%, up 2.69 percentage points year - on - year. ISMA/NFCSF predicts that the total sugar production in India in the 25/26 sugar - making season will be 3.49 billion tons, up from 2.95 billion tons in the 24/25 sugar - making season (+540 million tons). The cumulative sugar production in Thailand in the 24/25 sugar - making season was 1.008 billion tons (+127 million tons) [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoint The cotton market is experiencing a narrow - range oscillation. The domestic cotton spot trading is increasingly sluggish with stable basis, the cotton yarn market has minor changes, and the cotton fabric market has limited improvement in production and sales with high inventory. The ICE cotton futures declined due to the rising dollar and weak new - crop exports [1][2][3]. 3. Summary by Related Contents a. Cotton Fundamental Data - **Futures**: For CF2601, the yesterday's closing price was 13,835 yuan/ton with a daily decline of 0.11%, and the night - session closing price was 13,825 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.07%. The trading volume was 196,806 lots, a decrease of 52,459 lots compared to the previous day, and the open interest was 748,215 lots, a decrease of 2,804 lots. For CY2511, the yesterday's closing price was 19,705 yuan/ton with a daily decline of 0.03%, and the night - session closing price was 19,715 yuan/ton with an increase of 0.05%. The trading volume was 6,245 lots, a decrease of 1,999 lots compared to the previous day, and the open interest was 15,633 lots, an increase of 1,045 lots. The ICE cotton futures (December contract) closed at 66.36 cents/pound, a decline of 0.84% [1]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The number of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts was 8,329, a decrease of 135 compared to the previous day, with 348 valid forecasts (no change). The number of cotton yarn warehouse receipts was 88 (no change), and the valid forecasts increased by 88 [1]. - **Spot Prices**: The price of North Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 15,002 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton compared to the previous day; South Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 14,687 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton. The prices in Shandong and Hebei increased by 20 yuan/ton and 18 yuan/ton respectively. The 3128B index was 15,191 yuan/ton, an increase of 13 yuan/ton. The international cotton index M was 74.39 cents/pound, a decrease of 0.36%. The price of pure - cotton carded yarn 32 - count was 20,620 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton, and the arrival price was 22,128 yuan/ton, a decrease of 26 yuan/ton [1]. - **Spreads**: The CF9 - 1 spread was - 165 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton compared to the previous day; the spread between North Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton and CF509 was 1,170 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton [1]. b. Macro and Industry News - **Domestic Cotton Spot**: According to TTEB, the domestic cotton spot trading is increasingly sluggish, and the spot basis is generally stable. Different regions have different sales basis levels [2]. - **Domestic Cotton Textile Enterprises**: The pure - cotton yarn market has minor changes. The knitting market in Guangdong has slightly improved, while the weaving market remains dull. The overall market feedback is average, and the cotton yarn prices are mainly stable. The cotton fabric market is cautious, with some improvement in orders for some fabric mills, but the overall order situation has not improved significantly. It is expected that the fabric mills' sales will gradually accelerate in August, and inventory will be digested, but currently, the increase in orders is limited, and the production and sales improvement is limited with high inventory [2]. - **US Cotton**: The ICE cotton futures declined again yesterday due to the rising dollar and weak new - crop exports [3]. c. Trend Intensity The trend intensity of cotton is 0, indicating a neutral trend. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 to 2, with - 2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [6].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the asphalt industry is "Oscillating weakly" [1] Core Viewpoints - The asphalt market shows an oscillating and weakly downward trend, with a trend strength of 0 [1][11] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing prices of BU2509 and BU2510 decreased; trading volume and open interest had different changes, with BU2509's trading volume and open interest decreasing, and BU2510's trading volume and open interest increasing; the total market asphalt warehouse receipts remained unchanged [2] - **Spread Data**: The basis (Shandong - 09), 09 - 10 inter - period spread, Shandong - South China spread, and East China - South China spread had different changes [2] - **Spot Market Data**: Shandong and Yangtze River Delta wholesale prices had different changes; refinery operating rates decreased by 0.07%, and refinery inventory rates decreased by 0.20% [2] Market Information - **Shipment Volume**: From July 30 to August 5, 2025, the total shipment volume of 54 domestic asphalt enterprises was 418,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.2%. Shandong's shipment volume decreased, while East China's increased [17] - **Capacity Utilization Rate**: From July 31 to August 6, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of 77 domestic heavy - traffic asphalt enterprises was 31.7%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.4% due to factors such as refinery production changes [17]

2025 年 08 月 08 日 商 品 研 究 工业硅：库存去化，关注市场情绪 工业硅、多晶硅基本面数据 | | | 指标名称 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-22 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | Si2511收盘价（元/吨） Si2511成交量（手） | 8,655 396,110 | -45 -68,973 | -105 -14,261 | 440 -1,311,170 | | | | Si2511持仓量（手） | 224,390 | 15,654 | 11,458 | -162,732 | | | 工业硅、多晶硅期货市场 | PS2511收盘价（元/吨） | 50,110 | -1,235 | 980 | - | | | | PS2511成交量（手） | 400,810 | -19,391 | -165,028 | - | | | | PS2511持仓量（手） | 136,324 | -2,072 | 9,335 | - | | | | 工业硅：近月合约对连一价差（元/吨） | 40 | 130 | 355 | 40 | ...

期货研究 烧碱：估值低位，旺季合约偏多对待 陈嘉昕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020481 chenjiaxin2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 烧碱基本面数据 09合约期货价格 山东最便宜可交割 现货32碱价格 山东现货32碱折盘面 基差 2413 800 2500 87 2025 年 8 月 8 日 资料来源：隆众资讯，国泰君安期货 【现货消息】 【趋势强度】 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 商 品 研 究 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 期货研究 液碱碱出货压力较大，液碱累库，伴随省内主力下游企业采购液碱价格下调，省内东部地区 32 碱出货 情况一般，价格下行。 【市场状况分析】 近期烧碱下跌主要因为企业开工偏高，而烧碱又处于需求淡季，同时 50 碱的出口处于价格博弈阶段， 订单较少，导致 50 碱价格承压。50 碱-32 碱价差低于蒸发成本，进一步加大华东地区 32 碱现货压力。此 外，08 合约仓单对市场形成冲击，低价仓单回流现货市场，加剧了市场负反馈。 从后期行情看，烧碱 09 合约盘面估值抛开交割因素，已处于这轮预计降价的合理估值。成本端，液氯 偏弱影响，烧碱成本支撑强。而烧碱旺季需 ...

Report Overview - The report date is August 7, 2025, and it focuses on stock index options, suggesting that in a volatile and rising volatility environment with a change in implied volatility correlation, long - position investors can consider a protective put strategy [1] Market Data Statistics Underlying Market Statistics - The closing prices of the Shanghai Composite 50 Index, CSI 300 Index, and CSI 1000 Index are 2798.31, 4114.67, and 6862.15 respectively, with changes of 0.89, 1.18, and 0.84. Their trading volumes are 42.34 billion, 198.64 billion, and 261.39 billion hands respectively, with changes of 1.16 billion, 21.97 billion, and 3.26 billion hands [2] - For various ETFs, such as Shanghai Composite 50 ETF, Huatai - Berich 300 ETF, etc., their closing prices, price changes, trading volumes, and volume changes are also presented in detail [2] Option Market Statistics - The trading volumes and changes, open interests and changes, VL - PCR, OI - PCR, and the strike prices with the largest call and put open interests (near - month) are provided for different index options and ETF options, like Shanghai Composite 50 Index Option, CSI 300 Index Option, etc. For example, the trading volume of Shanghai Composite 50 Index Option is 32374, with a change of 3863 [2] Option Volatility Statistics - The ATM - IV, IV changes, same - term HV, HV changes, Skew, Skew changes, and VIX and its changes are reported for near - month and next - month options of different types. For instance, the near - month ATM - IV of Shanghai Composite 50 Index Option is 11.75%, with an IV change of 0.21% [5] Option Types Analysis Shanghai Composite 50 Index Option - Multiple charts show the full - contract PCR,主力 contract skewness trend, volatility cone, and volatility term structure, providing a comprehensive view of its market performance [8][9] CSI 300 Index Option - Similar to the Shanghai Composite 50 Index Option, there are charts for full - contract PCR,主力 contract skewness trend, volatility cone, and volatility term structure to analyze its characteristics [12][13] CSI 1000 Index Option - The report presents relevant charts for this option type, including主力 contract volatility, full - contract PCR,主力 contract skewness, volatility cone, and volatility term structure [15][16] Various ETF Options - For Shanghai Composite 50 ETF Option, Huatai - Berich 300 ETF Option, and other ETF options, their respective主力 contract volatility, full - contract PCR,主力 contract skewness, volatility cone, and volatility term structure are analyzed through charts [18][22]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - Not provided in the report. 3. Summary by Related Categories Gold (AU) - On August 7, 2025, the closing price of SHFE gold main contract was 785.02 yuan/gram, with a change of 1.34 yuan compared to the previous trading day [1]. - The closing price of COMEX gold main contract was 3431.80 US dollars/ounce, down 3.20 US dollars from the previous day [1]. - The spot price of London gold was -1.93 US dollars/ounce, and the spot price of SGE gold was 779.52 yuan/gram, down 1.44 yuan [1]. Silver (AG) - On August 7, 2025, the closing price of SHFE silver main contract was 9258 yuan/kilogram, up 76 yuan from the previous trading day [1]. - The closing price of COMEX silver main contract was 0.10 US dollars/ounce, and the spot price of London silver was 37.78 US dollars/ounce, up 0.43 US dollars [1]. - The spot price of SGE silver was 96 yuan/kilogram, and the domestic basis (AG(T+D) - main contract) was -11 yuan/gram [1]. Copper (CU, BC) - On August 7, 2025, the closing price of SHFE copper (CU) main contract was 78460 yuan/ton, up 180 yuan from the previous trading day [1]. - The closing price of international copper (BC) main contract was 69630 yuan/ton, up 160 yuan [1]. - The closing price of LME copper 3M (15:00) was 9701.50 US dollars/ton, up 34.00 US dollars [1]. Aluminum and Alumina (AL, AO) - On August 7, 2025, the closing price of SHFE aluminum (AL) main contract was 20750 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan from the previous trading day [1]. - The closing price of alumina (AO) main contract was 3211 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan [1]. - The closing price of LME aluminum 3M (15:00) was 2631.00 US dollars/ton, up 56.00 US dollars [1]. Zinc (ZN) - On August 7, 2025, the closing price of SHFE zinc (ZN) main contract was 22580 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan from the previous trading day [1]. - The LME zinc 0 - 3 spread was -20.97 US dollars/ton, and the domestic regional spot premiums varied in different areas [1]. - The SHFE zinc warehouse receipt inventory was 13822 tons, down 553 tons [1]. Lead (PB) - On August 7, 2025, the closing price of SHFE lead (PB) main contract was 16875 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan from the previous trading day [1]. - The refined lead spot import profit and loss was -524.20 yuan/ton, and the recycled lead smelting profit was 73.50 yuan/ton [1]. Nickel and Stainless Steel (NI, SS) - On August 7, 2025, the closing price of SHFE nickel (NI) main contract was 121850 yuan/ton, up 780 yuan from the previous trading day [1]. - The closing price of stainless steel (SS) main contract was 13000 yuan/ton, up 65 yuan [1]. - The LME nickel 3M closing price (15:00) was 15230 US dollars/ton [1]. Tin (SN) - On August 7, 2025, the closing price of SHFE tin (SN) main contract was 267940 yuan/ton, up 1000 yuan from the previous trading day [1]. - The LME tin 3M closing price (15:00) was 33565 US dollars/ton, up 180 US dollars [1]. - The SHFE tin warehouse receipt inventory was 7332 tons, down 26 tons [1].

本报告的观点和信息仅供风险承受能力合适的投资者参考。本报告难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不 便，敬请谅解。若您并非风险承受能力合适的投资者，请勿阅读、订阅或接收任何相关信息。本报告不构 成具体业务或产品的推介，亦不应被视为相应金融衍生品的投资建议。请您根据自身的风险承受能力自行 作出投资决定并自主承担投资风险，不应凭借本内容进行具体操作。 【期货行情前瞻要点】 通过宏观基本面分析和黄金分割线、水平线、日均线等技术面分析，预期今日期货主力合约行情走势大概率如 下： 股指期货将偏强震荡：IF2509 阻力位 4122 和 4141 点，支撑位 4097 和 4087 点；IH2509 阻力位 2812 和 2820 点，支撑位 2795 和 2786 点；IC2509 阻力位 6250 和 6275 点，支撑位 6190 和 6160 点；IM2509 阻力位 6830 和 6885 点，支撑位 6760 和 6730 点。 2025 年 8 月 7 日 股指期货将偏强震荡 铜、铝、锌、氧化铝、工业硅、多晶 硅、碳酸锂期货将偏强震荡 焦煤期货将偏强宽幅震荡 原 油、铁矿石、玻璃、纯碱期货将偏弱震荡 陶金峰 期货投资 ...

2025 年 08 月 07 日 豆粕：隔夜美豆收跌，连粕调整震荡 豆一：单向拍卖开启，盘面震荡 吴光静 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011992 wuguangjing@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 豆粕/豆一基本面数据 | | | 收盘价 （日盘） | 涨 跌 | 收盘价 （夜盘） 涨 跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | （元/吨） DCE豆一2509 | 4118 | -3（-0.07%） | +6（+0.15%） 4124 | | 期 货 | DCE豆粕2509 （元/吨） | 3026 | -4（-0.13%） | 3013 -14（-0.46%） | | | CBOT大豆11 （美分/蒲） | 985.25 | -5.25（-0.53%） | | | | CBOT豆粕12 （美元/短吨） | 281.1 | -3.7（-1.30%） | n a | | | | | 豆粕 | （43%） | | | 山东 （元/吨） | 2950～3000， 较昨-10至持平； 60， 持平； 8-9月M2509+30/+60， M2601+10/+30/+60/+70， ...