Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The driving force of the 91 spread may come from the SR2601 contract. The domestic situation is relatively strong, but the spot price is higher than the cost of out-of-quota imports, with no valuation advantage. The import volume in Q3 2025 is expected to increase significantly quarter-on-quarter, and the spot price will remain stable. Currently, the basis of the SR2509 contract is at a low level compared to previous years, with limited potential for imagination. The SR2601 contract is priced based on expectations, anchored to domestic production costs and out-of-quota import costs, and is also affected by the anti-involution sentiment. From late June onwards, driven by the anti-involution sentiment, the prices of industrial products such as polysilicon and coking coal have risen significantly, and the Zhengzhou sugar price has followed suit. In addition, the market expects that the sugar yield in Guangxi in the 25/26 sugar season is likely to decline, and the production cost will increase, supporting the price of the SR2601 contract. From August to September, the spot price is expected to remain stable, the basis of the SR2509 contract has limited potential for imagination, and the driving force of the 91 spread depends on the SR2601 contract [1][24] Group 3: Summary According to the Directory 1. Zhengzhou Sugar 91 Spread First Strengthened and Then Weakened - Since June 2025, the spread between the SR2509 contract and the SR2601 contract (hereinafter referred to as the 91 spread) has first strengthened and then weakened, generally fluctuating within the range of 100 - 200 yuan/ton, with a relatively small fluctuation range [4] - From June to July, the 91 spread strengthened, mainly because the price of the SR2509 contract was stronger. After the expiration of the New York raw sugar 2507 contract, the New York raw sugar price bottomed out and rebounded, and the suppression of the weak expectation on the SR2509 contract weakened. As the SR2507 contract expired, the SR2509 contract became the near-term contract, and as the delivery month approached, the pricing gradually shifted from expectation-based pricing to reality-based pricing. Against the background of a high basis, the price of the SR2509 contract was relatively stronger than that of the SR2601 contract [4] - Since July, the 91 spread has weakened, and the price of the SR2601 contract has been relatively stronger. Starting from July, the anti-involution sentiment in the domestic market has swept through the commodity market, and the prices of agricultural products have also been affected by this sentiment. Most of the funds trading on the macro level choose the far-term contracts. Fundamentally, the delivery of the SR2509 contract is still affected by the beet sugar warehouse receipts. On the one hand, the basis of the SR2509 contract has been repaired to a low level in recent years; on the other hand, the basis before the expiration of the SR2507 contract was still relatively high, so the room for the basis of the SR2509 contract to continue to weaken is limited [4] 2. The Basis of the SR2509 Contract is at a Low Level Compared to Previous Years, with Limited Potential for Imagination 2.1 Pricing Benchmark of the SR2509 Contract and the SR2601 Contract - The price of the SR2509 contract first declined and then increased. Since May 2025, the spot price in Nanning has fluctuated downward, with a fluctuation range of 6000 - 6200 yuan/ton. The SR2509 contract first declined and then increased, with a fluctuation range of 5600 - 5930 yuan/ton. The fluctuation range of the spot price is smaller than that of the futures price, and the basis fluctuates within the range of 150 - 400 yuan/ton, showing an overall inverted "V" shape. Since mid-June 2025, the basis of the SR2509 contract has weakened significantly. Currently, the basis of the SR2509 contract is at a low level compared to previous years, and its absolute level is lower than that before the expiration of the SR2507 contract, with limited potential for imagination [8] - The basis before the expiration of the SR2507 contract was relatively high. Since May 2025, the price of the SR2507 contract has fluctuated downward, and the basis has fluctuated within the range of 200 - 350 yuan/ton. The average basis in June was 282 yuan/ton, and the average basis in July was 279 yuan/ton. The basis before expiration was generally at a relatively high level. It is believed that the high basis before the expiration of the SR2507 contract is mainly related to the high proportion of beet sugar warehouse receipts [10] - The warehouse receipts mainly consist of beet sugar and Yunnan sugar. On July 29, 2025, the number of registered warehouse receipts for Zhengzhou sugar was 19,746. Among them, there were about 197 warehouse receipts for cane sugar from the Guangxi production area, about 2,324 warehouse receipts for cane sugar from the Yunnan production area, 1,824 warehouse receipts for credit from Yunnan factories, 5,000 warehouse receipts for credit from processing sugar factories in the sales area, about 8,706 warehouse receipts for beet sugar in the sales area, and 1,695 warehouse receipts for credit from beet sugar factories in the sales area. The warehouse receipts likely to be delivered are probably the beet sugar in the sales area and the cane sugar from the Yunnan production area, with a quantity of around 14,500 (including the possible warehouse receipts for credit from factories) [12] - The SR2601 contract is priced based on expectations, and its price increase benefits from the anti-involution sentiment. The pricing of the SR2601 contract is anchored to domestic production costs and out-of-quota import costs, and is also affected by the anti-involution sentiment. Since late June, driven by the anti-involution sentiment, the prices of industrial products such as polysilicon and coking coal have risen significantly, and the Zhengzhou sugar price has followed suit. Fundamentally, after the expiration of the New York raw sugar July contract, the news of Pakistan's import of 500,000 tons of sugar was positive. The markets in Brazil and India lacked obvious marginal information to drive prices, and the prices generally stabilized and then fluctuated within a range, with the out-of-quota import cost remaining stable [15] 2.2 International and Domestic Market Fundamentals - In the 24/25 sugar season, the global sugar supply was in a shortage of 5.47 million tons. In May 2025, the ISO released a report on the global sugar market for the 24/25 year, with a production of 174.80 million tons and a consumption of 180.26 million tons, resulting in a global supply shortage of 5.47 million tons, compared with a previous forecast of a shortage of 4.88 million tons (forecast in February 2025). In terms of the quantity of the supply shortage, the shortage is at a relatively high level in history, indicating that the overall market supply situation is relatively tight. In the 24/25 sugar season, Conab estimated that the sugar production in Brazil would be 44.12 million tons (-1.56 million tons), and Nfcsf estimated that the sugar production in India would be 26.11 million tons (-5.79 million tons) [18] - In the 25/26 sugar season, the global sugar market is expected to have a surplus. In the 25/26 sugar season, the USDA estimated that the global sugar production would be 189.32 million tons, with a surplus of 11.4 million tons. Datagro estimated a global surplus of 1.53 million tons, GreenPool estimated a surplus of 1.15 million tons, Louis Dreyfus estimated a surplus of 0.4 million tons, and Alvean estimated a surplus of 0.4 million tons [20] - The core of the domestic sugar market trading is still the total import volume and structure. According to CAOC data, in the 24/25 sugar season, China's sugar production was 11.16 million tons (+1.2 million tons), consumption was 15.8 million tons, and imports were 5 million tons. In the 25/26 sugar season, China's sugar production is expected to be 11.2 million tons (+0.04 million tons), consumption is expected to be 15.9 million tons (+0.1 million tons), and imports are expected to be 5 million tons. In Q2 2025, the Guangxi production area was threatened by drought, but the total production data from CAOC did not change significantly. In Q1 2025, the policy tightened the import of syrup and premixed powder, and in May 2025, the supervision of 4 measures of the special account book management policy for commodities was further refined. Even if the in-quota import volume remains the same, with the decrease in the import volume of syrup and premixed powder, the market needs out-of-quota imports to fill the supply gap, and the pricing anchor point switches to the out-of-quota import cost. The total import volume and structure are the core of the market trading [20] 3. The Driving Force of the 91 Spread May Come from the SR2601 Contract - In the international market, the situation is one of strong reality and weak expectation. In terms of driving factors, in the 24/25 sugar season, the short-term supply in the global market is relatively large, and the reality is still strong; in the 25/26 sugar season, the global sugar market is expected to increase production and accumulate inventory, with a weak expectation [22] - In terms of valuation, although the price of New York raw sugar has significantly declined from its high level, its valuation is still relatively high compared to other major agricultural products [23] - In the domestic market, the pricing anchor point is the out-of-quota import cost. Whether in the 24/25 sugar season or the 25/26 sugar season, even if the in-quota import volume remains the same, with the decrease in the import volume of syrup and premixed powder, the market needs out-of-quota imports to fill the supply gap, and the pricing anchor point switches to the out-of-quota import cost. The total import volume and structure are the core of the market trading [23] - The driving force of the 91 spread depends on the SR2601 contract. The domestic situation is relatively strong, but the spot price is higher than the cost of out-of-quota imports, with no valuation advantage. The import volume in Q3 2025 is expected to increase significantly quarter-on-quarter, and the spot price will remain stable. Currently, the basis of the SR2509 contract is at a low level compared to previous years, with limited potential for imagination. The SR2601 contract is priced based on expectations, anchored to domestic production costs and out-of-quota import costs, and is also affected by the anti-involution sentiment. From late June onwards, driven by the anti-involution sentiment, the prices of industrial products such as polysilicon and coking coal have risen significantly, and the Zhengzhou sugar price has followed suit. In addition, the market expects that the sugar yield in Guangxi in the 25/26 sugar season is likely to decline, and the production cost will increase, supporting the price of the SR2601 contract. From August to September, the spot price is expected to remain stable, the basis of the SR2509 contract has limited potential for imagination, and the driving force of the 91 spread depends on the SR2601 contract [24]

二 〇 二 五 年 度 2025 年 7 月 30 日 ICE Endex TTF 月度期货合约基础研究—— 天然气系列研究（一） 唐惠珽 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021216 tanghuiting@gtht.com 报告导读： 荷兰天然气批发市场，又称所有权转移枢纽（TTF），是一个由 GTS 运营的虚拟天然气所有权交易市 场，是欧洲大陆最大的天然气市场。ICE Endex TTF 系列期货合约以实物交割为基础，通过对 TTF 所有 权的转移实现交割。TTF 月度期货合约是 ICE Endex TTF 系列期货合约中的主力合约，成交最为活跃。 本文为 ICE Endex TTF 月度期货合约基础研究篇，梳理了 ICE Endex TTF 月度期货合约的基本规 则、交割标准气、交割流程与结算方式，以及可交割供应量。 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 期货研究 （正文） 1. 合约基本规则 TTF 月度期货合约的交割质量标准由荷兰输气商 GTS 制定，且 GTS 运营的主干输气网络只接受 H- gas。换言之，TTF 月度期货合约的交割标准气为 H-gas。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided in the report. Report's Core View - Gold is expected to decline in a fluctuating manner, while silver is expected to break through and rise. Copper lacks driving forces and its price will fluctuate. Zinc will have a narrow - range fluctuation. Lead prices are under pressure due to the increase in overseas inventories. Tin and aluminum will fluctuate within a range. Alumina is driven by short - term sentiment, and cast aluminum alloy follows electrolytic aluminum. Nickel's direction is determined by macro - expectations, and its elasticity is limited by fundamentals. Stainless steel is dominated by macro - sentiment, and the real - world situation still needs to be repaired [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold - **Price and Trend**: The price of gold is expected to decline in a fluctuating manner, with a trend strength of - 1. The closing price of Shanghai Gold 2510 was 771.44, down 0.43%, and the night - session closing price was 774.32, up 0.49% [2][5]. - **Market Data**: The trading volume of Shanghai Gold 2510 decreased by 36,087 compared to the previous day, and the position increased by 2,732. The SPDR Gold ETF's position remained unchanged at 956.23 [5]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Sino - US economic and trade talks were held in Stockholm, Sweden, and both sides will continue to extend the suspension of 24% of the US's reciprocal tariffs and China's counter - measures for 90 days. The US court started oral arguments on Thursday, and the "reciprocal tariffs" face the "risk of cancellation" [5][9]. Silver - **Price and Trend**: Silver is expected to break through and rise, with a trend strength of 0. The closing price of Shanghai Silver 2510 was 9195, down 0.18%, and the night - session closing price was 9234.00, up 0.46% [2][5]. - **Market Data**: The trading volume of Shanghai Silver 2510 decreased by 611,380 compared to the previous day, and the position decreased by 5,678. The SLV Silver ETF's position increased by 14 to 15,173.92 [5]. Copper - **Price and Trend**: Copper lacks driving forces and its price will fluctuate, with a trend strength of 0. The closing price of the Shanghai Copper main contract was 78,840, down 0.20%, and the night - session closing price was 79090, up 0.32% [2][10]. - **Market Data**: The trading volume of the Shanghai Copper main contract decreased by 10,226 compared to the previous day, and the position decreased by 2,348. The inventory of Shanghai Copper increased by 251 [10]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Sino - US will continue to extend the suspension of 24% of the US's reciprocal tariffs and China's counter - measures for 90 days. India is delaying new trade concessions. The US is considering a 50% tariff on copper imports starting next week [10][12]. Zinc - **Price and Trend**: Zinc will have a narrow - range fluctuation, with a trend strength of 0. The closing price of the Shanghai Zinc main contract was 22655, up 0.04%, and the closing price of LME Zinc 3M was 2805.5, down 0.83% [2][13]. - **Market Data**: The trading volume of the Shanghai Zinc main contract decreased by 65,890 compared to the previous day, and the position decreased by 6,845. The LME Zinc inventory decreased by 3,350 [13]. - **News**: Sino - US economic and trade talks were held in Stockholm, Sweden, and both sides will continue to extend relevant tariffs and counter - measures for 90 days [14]. Lead - **Price and Trend**: Lead prices are under pressure due to the increase in overseas inventories, with a trend strength of 0. The closing price of the Shanghai Lead main contract was 16900, down 0.09%, and the closing price of LME Lead 3M was 2017.5, down 0.15% [2][17]. - **Market Data**: The trading volume of the Shanghai Lead main contract decreased by 24,548 compared to the previous day, and the position decreased by 6,012. The LME Lead inventory increased by 6,700 [17]. - **News**: Sino - US will continue to extend relevant tariffs and counter - measures for 90 days. The US job vacancies in June were 7.437 million, less than expected [18]. Tin - **Price and Trend**: Tin will fluctuate within a range, with a trend strength of - 1. The closing price of the Shanghai Tin main contract was 266,660, down 0.46%, and the night - session closing price was 268,050, up 0.26% [2][21]. - **Market Data**: The trading volume of the Shanghai Tin main contract decreased by 26,514 compared to the previous day, and the position decreased by 2,387. The inventory of Shanghai Tin increased by 160 [21]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Similar to other metals, Sino - US tariff - related issues and other macro - events are mentioned [21][22]. Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Trend**: Aluminum and alumina will fluctuate within a range, and cast aluminum alloy follows electrolytic aluminum. The trend strengths of aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy are all 0. The closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract was 20605, down 10. The closing price of the Shanghai Alumina main contract was 3307, up 64 [2][26]. - **Market Data**: The trading volume of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract decreased by 68,337 compared to the previous day, and the position decreased by 12,465. The inventory of domestic aluminum ingots remained unchanged at 51.40 million tons [26]. - **News**: Trump set a new deadline for Russia to reach a Russia - Ukraine agreement, and the price of crude oil rose by more than 4% during the session. Trump and Bessent stated that the US will issue long - term bonds after the interest rate drops [28]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Price and Trend**: Nickel's direction is determined by macro - expectations, and its elasticity is limited by fundamentals. Stainless steel is dominated by macro - sentiment, and the real - world situation still needs to be repaired. The trend strengths of nickel and stainless steel are both 0. The closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 121,800, up 180. The closing price of the stainless steel main contract was 12,920, up 80 [2][30]. - **Market Data**: The trading volume of the Shanghai Nickel main contract decreased by 177,969 compared to the previous day, and the position decreased by 2,420. The trading volume of the stainless steel main contract decreased by 211,230 compared to the previous day [30]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The governor of Ontario, Canada, threatened to stop exporting nickel to the US. An Indonesian nickel - iron project entered the trial - production stage. Environmental violations were found in an Indonesian industrial park [30][31].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report provides trend forecasts for various commodities on July 30, 2025, including gold, silver, copper, zinc, etc., and gives corresponding trend intensities [2]. - The trends of different commodities are affected by multiple factors such as macro - economy, industry news, and inventory changes [6][11][14]. 3. Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - **Gold**: Expected to oscillate and decline, with a trend intensity of - 1. Yesterday, the closing price of Shanghai Gold 2510 was 771.44 yuan, down 0.43%. The macro - economic situation and international trade policies have an impact on its price [2][6][9]. - **Silver**: Expected to break through and rise, with a trend intensity of 0. The closing price of Shanghai Silver 2510 was 9195 yuan, down 0.18%. The trading volume and inventory changes affect its price [2][6][9]. Base Metals - **Copper**: Lacks driving forces and the price will oscillate, with a trend intensity of 0. The closing price of Shanghai Copper's main contract was 78,840 yuan, down 0.20%. Macro - economic data and industry news such as potential tariffs and mining projects influence its price [2][11][13]. - **Zinc**: Will oscillate in a narrow range, with a trend intensity of 0. The closing price of Shanghai Zinc's main contract was 22,655 yuan, up 0.04%. Inventory changes and import - export factors affect its price [2][14][15]. - **Lead**: Overseas inventory increase pressures the price, with a trend intensity of 0. The closing price of Shanghai Lead's main contract was 16,900 yuan, down 0.09%. Inventory and macro - economic news are the influencing factors [2][18][19]. - **Tin**: Will oscillate within a range, with a trend intensity of - 1. The closing price of Shanghai Tin's main contract was 266,660 yuan, down 0.46%. Inventory and spot - futures price differences affect its price [2][22][26]. - **Aluminum**: Will oscillate within a range, with a trend intensity of 0. The closing price of Shanghai Aluminum's main contract was 20,605 yuan, down 10 yuan. The price is affected by factors such as inventory, trading volume, and enterprise profitability [2][27][29]. - **Nickel**: Macro - expectations determine the direction, while fundamentals limit the elasticity, with a trend intensity of 0. The closing price of Shanghai Nickel's main contract was 121,800 yuan, up 180 yuan. Industry news and supply - demand relationships affect its price [2][30][35]. - **Stainless Steel**: Macro - sentiment dominates the margin, and the real - world situation still needs to be repaired, with a trend intensity of 0. The closing price of the stainless - steel main contract was 12,920 yuan, up 80 yuan. Market sentiment and industry news are the influencing factors [2][31][35]. Energy and Chemicals - **Carbonate Lithium**: Will oscillate widely, and attention should be paid to the switch of macro - sentiment, with a trend intensity of 1. The closing price of the 2509 contract was 70,840 yuan, down 2,280 yuan. Market supply - demand and macro - economic factors affect its price [2][36][38]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The futures market is expected to be strong, with a trend intensity of 1. The closing price of Si2509 was 9,350 yuan, up 435 yuan. Supply - demand and cost factors affect its price [2][39][42]. - **Polysilicon**: Driven by news, the futures market is expected to be strong, with a trend intensity of 1. The closing price of PS2509 was 50,805 yuan, up 1,400 yuan. Industry news and market sentiment affect its price [2][40][42]. - **Iron Ore**: Supported by macro - expectations, it will oscillate strongly, with a trend intensity of 1. The closing price of I2509 was 798 yuan, up 12 yuan. Macro - economic news and supply - demand relationships affect its price [2][43]. - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: Affected by the sector's market resonance, they will oscillate strongly. The trend intensity of rebar is 0, and that of hot - rolled coil is 0. The closing price of RB2510 was 3,347 yuan, up 65 yuan; the closing price of HC2510 was 3,503 yuan, up 69 yuan. Industry data and macro - policies affect their prices [2][45][47]. - **Silicon Manganese and Ferrosilicon**: Affected by the sector's sentiment resonance, they will oscillate strongly. The trend intensity of ferrosilicon is 0, and that of silicon manganese is 0. The closing price of ferrosilicon 2509 was 6110 yuan, up 270 yuan; the closing price of silicon manganese 2509 was 6212 yuan, up 184 yuan. Market supply - demand and industry news affect their prices [2][48][51]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: After the sentiment is realized, they will oscillate widely, with a trend intensity of 0 for both. The closing price of JM2509 was 1120.5 yuan, up 20 yuan; the closing price of J2509 was 1633 yuan, up 24.5 yuan. Supply - demand relationships and price changes in the spot market affect their prices [2][52][55]. - **Steam Coal**: As daily consumption recovers, it will oscillate and stabilize, with a trend intensity of 0. Yesterday, there was no transaction for ZC2508. The price is affected by factors such as consumption and inventory [2][57][60]. Agricultural Products and Others - **Palm Oil**: Supported by positive factors such as crude oil and macro - sentiment in the short term. The price is affected by the price of crude oil and macro - economic sentiment [2][60]. - **Soybean Oil**: Will oscillate strongly, and attention should be paid to the progress of Sino - US trade. The price is affected by international trade relations and market supply - demand [2][60]. - **Soybean Meal**: Likely to oscillate, affected by the prices of US soybeans and rapeseed meal. The price is affected by the international soybean market and domestic supply - demand [2][62]. - **Corn**: Will oscillate. The price is affected by factors such as supply - demand and weather [2][64]. - **Sugar**: Will oscillate in a narrow range. The price is affected by factors such as production and consumption [2][65]. - **Cotton**: After the sentiment cools down, the Zhengzhou cotton futures will correct. The price is affected by market sentiment and supply - demand [2][66]. - **Eggs**: The spot price has weakened. The price is affected by factors such as production and consumption seasons [2][67]. - **Live Pigs**: With a weak reality and strong expectations, a trend reverse spread is recommended. The price is affected by factors such as production cycles and market expectations [2][68]. - **Peanuts**: Attention should be paid to the weather in the producing areas. The price is affected by weather conditions and supply - demand [2][69]. - **Log**: Will oscillate repeatedly. The price is affected by factors such as supply - demand and market sentiment [2][61].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the log industry is "Oscillating and Repeating" [1] 2. Core View - The report presents the latest fundamental data of logs, including price, trading volume, and open interest of different contracts, as well as the prices of various log products in the spot market. It also mentions a piece of macro - industry news about the Sino - US economic and trade talks [2][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Contents 3.1 Fundamental Data of Logs - **Futures Contracts**: The 2509 contract's closing price was 830 on July 29, 2025, with a daily decline of 0.1% and a weekly increase of 0.9%. Its trading volume decreased by 51.1% daily and 41% weekly, and the open interest decreased by 4.3% daily and 8% weekly. Similar data is provided for the 2511 and 2601 contracts [2] - **Spreads**: The spreads between different contracts, such as 2509 - 2511, 2509 - 2601, and 2511 - 2601, are presented. For example, the 2509 - 2511 spread was - 3 on July 29, 2025 [2] - **Spot Market**: The prices of various log products in the Shandong and Jiangsu markets are listed, including different lengths and specifications of radiata pine, spruce, K - wood, pulp, and wood squares. Most of the prices remained stable with a daily change of 0.0%, but there were some weekly changes, such as a 4.0% weekly increase in the 5.9 - meter 30 + radiata pine in the Jiangsu market [2] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - On July 28, 2025, the economic and trade teams of China and the United States held economic and trade talks in Stockholm, Sweden [4] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of logs is 1, indicating a neutral - to - slightly - strong trend [4]

商 品 研 究 2025 年 07 月 30 日 豆粕：美豆微跌、菜粕偏强，连粕或震荡 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 吴光静 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011992 wuguangjing@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 豆粕/豆一基本面数据 | | | 收盘价 （日盘） | 涨 跌 收盘价 （夜盘） 涨 跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | DCE豆一2509 （元/吨） | 4144 -39 | （-0.93%） 4149 +13（+0.31%） | | 期 货 | DCE豆粕2509 （元/吨） | 2983 | -18（-0.60%） 2993 +19 （+0.64%） | | | CBOT大豆11 （美分/蒲） | 1008.25 | -3.25（-0.32%） | | | CBOT豆粕12 （美元/短吨） | 276.3 -3.1 | n a （-1.11%） | | | | | 豆粕 （43%） | | | | 2860～2900， 较昨-20至持平； M2509+0/+30/+50/+60， | 8月10日前提货M2509-100， 持平； 8-9月 持平； ...

期 货 研 究 2025 年 07 月 30 日 期货研究 铝：区间震荡 氧化铝：短期情绪面驱动 铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝 王蓉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 wangrong2@gtht.com 王宗源（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03142619 wangzongyuan@gtht.com 所 铝、氧化铝、铸造铝合金基本面数据更新 | | | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪铝主力合约收盘价 | 20605 | -10 | -295 | 140 | 1280 | | | 沪铝主力合约夜盘收盘价 | 20620 | ー | l | - | l | | | LME铝3M收盘价 | 2606 | -25 | -46 | વર | 249 | | | 沪铝主力合约成交量 | 119985 | -68337 | -33433 | 26772 | -133621 | | | 沪铝主力合约持仓量 | 272707 | -12465 | -58190 | 108696 | 128104 | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints Through macro - fundamental analysis and technical analysis, the report predicts the trend of various futures on July 30, 2025. It is expected that stock index futures will show a relatively strong oscillation, while some commodity futures such as polycrystalline silicon, industrial silicon, lithium carbonate, coking coal, glass, soda ash, alumina, and crude oil futures will oscillate with an upward tendency. Ten - year and thirty - year treasury bond futures are likely to oscillate weakly [2]. Summary by Directory 1. Futures Market Outlook - Stock index futures (IF2509, IH2509, IC2509, IM2509) are expected to oscillate strongly on July 30, 2025, with specific resistance and support levels provided [2][19]. - Ten - year treasury bond futures T2509 and thirty - year treasury bond futures TL2509 are likely to oscillate weakly on July 30, 2025, and will test support levels [2][39]. - Gold (AU2510), silver (AG2510), copper (CU2509), and other commodity futures are expected to oscillate strongly on July 30, 2025, and will attack resistance levels [2][3]. 2. Macro News and Trading Tips - During the Sino - US economic and trade talks from July 28 - 29, the two sides agreed to extend the suspension of the US's 24% reciprocal tariffs and China's counter - measures for 90 days [7]. - The IMF significantly raised China's GDP growth forecast for 2025 to 4.8% and for 2026 to 4.2%. The global economic growth forecast for 2025 was raised to 3% [10]. - US economic data: In June, the US commodity trade deficit narrowed by 10.8% month - on - month; in May, the S&P/CS20 major city house price index and FHFA house price index had different changes; in June, JOLTS job openings were 743.7 million, less than expected [11]. 3. Commodity Futures - related Information - Most domestic commodity futures rose in night trading. Black series such as coking coal and coke, and non - metallic building materials such as glass and PVC increased [11]. - Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange adjusted the intraday flat - today trading fees for glass and soda ash futures contracts from the night trading session on July 30 [12]. 4. Futures Market Analysis and Outlook - **Stock index futures**: On July 29, 2025, IF2509, IH2509, IC2509, and IM2509 had different trends, with some continuing to rebound slightly and some facing slight downward pressure [14][15][16]. - **Treasury bond futures**: On July 29, 2025, treasury bond futures closed down across the board. The central bank conducted 4492 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net injection of 2344 billion yuan [37]. - **Other commodity futures**: Each commodity futures contract had different trends on July 29, 2025, and the report provided expected trends and resistance/support levels for July 30, 2025 [43][51][54] etc.

Report Title - Manganese Silicon: Sector sentiment resonance, strong sideways movement [1] Core View - The manganese silicon market shows a pattern of strong sideways movement due to sector sentiment resonance [1] Fundamental Tracking Futures Data - Silicon iron 2509 closed at 6110, up 270, with a trading volume of 726,721 and an open interest of 197,081 - Silicon iron 2510 closed at 6092, up 260, with a trading volume of 62,472 and an open interest of 40,316 - Manganese silicon 2509 closed at 6212, up 184, with a trading volume of 1,009,206 and an open interest of 347,380 - Manganese silicon 2510 closed at 6218, up 186, with a trading volume of 43,829 and an open interest of 23,948 [1] Spot Data - The price of silicon iron FeSi75 - B in Inner Mongolia was 5550 yuan/ton, up 50 - The price of silicon manganese FeMn65Si17 in Inner Mongolia was 5800 yuan/ton, up 100 - The price of manganese ore Mn44 block was 40.0 yuan/ton - degree, up 0.5 - The price of semi - coke small material in Shenmu was 550 yuan/ton [1] Price Difference Data - The spot - 09 futures price difference of silicon iron was - 560 yuan/ton, down 220 - The spot - 09 futures price difference of manganese silicon was - 412 yuan/ton, down 84 - The near - far month price difference of silicon iron 2509 - 2601 was - 106 yuan/ton, up 2 - The near - far month price difference of manganese silicon 2509 - 2601 was - 74 yuan/ton, unchanged - The cross - variety price difference of manganese silicon 2509 - silicon iron 2509 was 102 yuan/ton, down 86 - The cross - variety price difference of manganese silicon 2601 - silicon iron 2601 was 70 yuan/ton, down 84 [1] Macro and Industry News Silicon Iron Price News - On July 29, the price of 72 silicon iron in Shaanxi was 5400 - 5600 (+100), in Ningxia 5600 - 5700 (+100), in Qinghai 5500 - 5600 (+100), in Gansu 5500 - 5600 (+100), and in Inner Mongolia 5600 - 5650 (+150) - The price of 75 silicon iron in Shaanxi was 5900 - 5950, in Ningxia 5800 - 5900, in Qinghai 5800 - 5850, in Gansu 5800 - 5850, and in Inner Mongolia 5800 - 5850 - The FOB price of 72 silicon iron was 1020 - 1040, and 75 was 1090 - 1110 (US dollars/ton, tax - included) [2] Silicon Manganese Price News - The northern quotation of 6517 silicon manganese was 5850 - 5950 (+150) yuan/ton; the southern quotation was 5900 - 6000 (+100) yuan/ton [2] Production and Procurement News - In July, there were 11 silicon iron enterprises in production in Inner Mongolia, with 75 ore - heating furnaces in production. The operating rate in July was 61.48%, up 1.64% from June, and the output was expected to be 14.64 tons, up 0.37 tons from June, with a capacity utilization of 60.2% - Yunnan Qujing Chenggang set the silicon iron procurement price at 5970 yuan/ton in cash, up 400 yuan/ton from the previous round, with a quantity of 400 tons - A steel mill in Shandong set the silicon manganese standard at 5990 yuan/ton, CIF and accepted, and temporarily procured 1500 tons - Yunnan Qujing Chenggang set the silicon manganese standard at 5880 yuan/ton, CIF and cash - included, up 140 yuan/ton, with a procurement volume of 1500 tons - A group in Fujian set the silicon manganese standard at 6150 yuan/ton in Hubei, up 100, with a procurement volume of 3000 tons; and 6150 yuan/ton in Jiangsu, up 100, with a procurement volume of 1000 tons [2][3] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of silicon iron is 0, and that of manganese silicon is 0. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 to 2, with - 2 indicating the most bearish and 2 indicating the most bullish [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint - The zinc market shows a narrow - range oscillation pattern [1] 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 Zinc Market Data - **Prices**: The closing price of SHFE zinc main contract was 22,655 yuan/ton, up 0.04%; the closing price of LME zinc 3M electronic trading was 2,805.5 dollars/ton, down 0.83% [1] - **Trading Volume**: The trading volume of SHFE zinc main contract was 127,217 lots, down 65,890 lots; the trading volume of LME zinc was 9,331 lots, up 1,056 lots [1] - **Open Interest**: The open interest of SHFE zinc main contract was 117,616 lots, down 6,845 lots; the open interest of LME zinc was 189,856 lots, up 1,083 lots [1] - **Premium and Discount**: Shanghai 0 zinc premium/discount was - 5 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton; LME CASH - 3M premium/discount was - 1.95 dollars/ton, down 0.15 dollars/ton [1] - **Inventory**: SHFE zinc futures inventory was 15,307 tons, up 1,540 tons; LME zinc inventory was 112,150 tons, down 3,350 tons [1] 3.2 News - China and the US will continue to extend the suspension of the 24% part of the US reciprocal tariffs and China's counter - measures for 90 days. The two sides held a candid, in - depth and constructive exchange on economic and trade issues [2] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of zinc is 0, indicating a neutral view. The range of trend intensity is integers within [- 2,2], where - 2 means most bearish and 2 means most bullish [2][3]