2026 年 1 月 16 日 硅铁：原料成本松动，宽幅震荡 锰硅：需求端小幅收紧，宽幅震荡 | | 李亚飞 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021184 | liyafei2@gtht.com | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 金园园（联系人） | 期货从业资格号：F03134630 | jinyuanyuan2@gtht.com | | 【基本面跟踪】 | | | | 硅铁、锰硅基本面数据 | | 期货合约 硅铁2603 | 收盘价 5610 | 较前一交易日 -80 | 成交量 144,251 | 持仓量 215,048 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期 货 | 硅铁2605 | 5596 | -72 | 32,497 | 70,966 | | | 锰硅2603 | 5870 | -50 | 127,246 | 243,818 | | | 锰硅2605 | 5898 | -40 | 81,646 | 250,383 | | | 项 目 | | | 价 格 | 较前一交易日 | 单 位 | | --- | --- | --- ...

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core View - The tin market is in a high-level consolidation [1]. Group 3: Summary by Directory Fundamental Tracking - **Price Data**: The closing price of the Shanghai Tin main contract was 433.000 with a daily increase of 4.80%, and the night - session closing price was 418.860 with a decrease of 3.27%. The price of the LME Tin 3M electronic - disk futures was 52.775 with a decrease of 2.27% [2]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the Shanghai Tin main contract was 592,217, an increase of 187,519 from the previous day, and the open interest was 38,481, a decrease of 3,924. The trading volume of the LME Tin 3M electronic - disk was 2,851, an increase of 1,315, and the open interest was 23,960, an increase of 401 [2]. - **Inventory Data**: The inventory of Shanghai Tin was 9,526, an increase of 2,419, and the inventory of LME Tin was 5,925, a decrease of 5. The cancellation warrant ratio of LME Tin was 6.57%, a decrease of 0.38% [2]. - **Spot Price**: The SMM 1 tin ingot price was 426,000, an increase of 20,500 from the previous day. The Yangtze River Non - ferrous 1 tin average price was 435,000, an increase of 25,000 [2]. - **Industry Chain Price**: The 40% tin concentrate (Yunnan) price was 414,000, an increase of 20,500. The 60% tin concentrate (Guangxi) price was 418,000, an increase of 20,500 [2]. Macro and Industry News - The State - owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council will strengthen the role of state - owned enterprises as the main body of technological innovation and cultivate leading technology enterprises [2]. - Goldman Sachs plans to issue at least $12 billion in bonds [3]. - The People's Bank of China has lowered the policy tool interest rate by 0.25 percentage points, and there is still room for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts this year [4]. - The demand for AI chips remains strong, TSMC's Q4 net profit increased by 35%, and its full - year capital expenditure in 2025 reached $40.9 billion [5]. Trend Strength - The tin trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral outlook. The trend strength ranges from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [6].

Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Zinc prices are likely to rise and difficult to fall [1] - Wall Street is optimistic about the medium - term outlook of silver but warns of short - term risks [2] - There is still room for the central bank to cut the reserve requirement ratio and interest rates this year [2][3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Zinc Fundamental Data - **Price**: The closing price of Shanghai Zinc main contract was 25,090 yuan/ton, up 2.51%; the closing price of LME Zinc 3M electronic trading was 3,290 dollars/ton, up 2.75% [1] - **Volume and Position**: The trading volume of Shanghai Zinc main contract was 502,358 lots, an increase of 259,257 lots; the position was 142,972 lots, an increase of 22,673 lots. The trading volume of LME Zinc was 16,389 lots, a decrease of 2,721 lots; the position was 231,380 lots, an increase of 3,117 lots [1] - **Premium and Discount**: Shanghai 0 zinc premium was 35 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton; LME CASH - 3M premium was - 14.32 dollars/ton, up 5.03 dollars/ton [1] - **Inventory**: Shanghai Zinc futures inventory was 33,810 tons, an increase of 548 tons; LME Zinc inventory was 106,700 tons, a decrease of 25 tons [1] 2. News - Trump administration decided not to impose comprehensive tariffs on key minerals such as silver and platinum for the time being, which eased market concerns [2] - The central bank cut the interest rates of various structural monetary policy tools by 0.25 percentage points and will lower the minimum down - payment ratio for commercial housing loans to 30% [2][3] 3. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of zinc is 1, indicating a neutral - to - bullish sentiment [3]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View The strengthening of the US dollar restricts the upward movement of copper prices, and the trend strength of copper is neutral [1]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of the Shanghai copper main - contract was 102,560 with a daily decline of 1.26%, and the night - session closing price was 102,860 with a night - session increase of 0.29%. The closing price of the LME copper 3M electronic disk was 13,149 with a daily decline of 1.14%. The trading volume of the Shanghai copper index was 643,234, a decrease of 48,394 from the previous day, and the position was 683,376, a decrease of 14,853. The trading volume of the LME copper 3M electronic disk was 65,624, an increase of 31,797, and the position was 326,000, an increase of 2,579 [1]. - **Inventory Data**: The Shanghai copper inventory was 162,717, an increase of 13,378, and the LME copper inventory was 141,125, a decrease of 500. The LME copper注销仓单 ratio was 35.50%, a decrease of 0.51% [1]. - **Spread Data**: The LME copper premium and discount was 44.29, a decrease of 45.94 from the previous day. The spot - to - futures near - month spread was 200, an increase of 60 from the previous day. The near - month contract to the continuous - first contract spread was - 360, an increase of 60 from the previous day [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Macro News**: The People's Bank of China decided to lower the rediscount and re - loan interest rates by 25 basis points and stated that there is still room for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts this year. The US employment market remains resilient, with the number of initial jobless claims dropping to 198,000 last week, the lowest since November last year, and the US dollar rebounding to a more than one - month high [1]. - **Industry News**: Pan - Pacific Copper (PPC) proposed a copper premium of up to $330 per ton for Japanese domestic customers in 2026, a record high. Codelco's copper production in November decreased by 3% year - on - year to 130,900 tons. The US government may lift the mining ban in northern Minnesota, potentially reviving a major mining project. Codelco submitted a $1.3 billion plan to extend the life of the Radomiro Tomic copper mine to 2058. The State Grid Corporation plans to invest 4 trillion yuan during the 15th Five - Year Plan period, a 40% increase from the 14th Five - Year Plan [1][3]. 3.3 Trend Strength The trend strength of copper is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [3].

商 品 研 究 2026 年 01 月 16 日 铂：震荡偏上 钯：跟随震荡上行 刘雨萱 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 liuyuxuan023982@gtjas.com 铂钯基本面数据 | 昨日收盘价 | | | | 涨幅 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 609.05 | 铂金期货2606 | | | -3. 43% | | | | 597. 37 | 金交所铂金 | | | -0. 34% | | | | 纽约铂主连(前日) | | 2415. 80 | | 0. 55% | | | | 伦敦现货铂金(前日) | | 2416. 00 | | 0. 70% | | | | 478. 60 | 锂金期货2606 | | | -3.41% | | | | 人民币现货纪金 | 价格 | 435. 00 | | -3.55% | | | | 纽约肥主连(前日) | | 1,865.00 | | -0. 93% | | | | 伦敦现货锂金(前日) | | 1,807.99 | | -0.61% | | | | 昨日成交 | | | 较 ...

2026 年 01 月 16 日 短纤趋势强度：0；瓶片趋势强度：0(仅指报告日的日盘主力合约期价波动情况） 短纤：短期震荡市 20260116 瓶片：短期震荡市 20260116 钱嘉寅 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0023476 qianjiayin@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 | | 短纤2602 | 昨日 6384 | 前日 6452 | 变化 -68 | PF02-03 | 昨日 -10 | 前日 -18 | 变化 8 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | PF | 短纤2603 | 6394 | 6470 | -76 | PF03-04 | -62 | -94 | 32 | | | 短纤2604 | 6456 | 6564 | -108 | PF主力基差 | 76 | 40 | 36 | | | 短纤主力持仓量 | 137521 | 213308 | -75787 | 短纤华东现货价格 | 6, 470 | 6,510 | -40 | | | 短纤主力成交量 | 189825 | 185516 | 4309 | 短纤 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the pulp industry is "Oscillating Weakly" [1] 2. Core View of the Report - The price trend of imported pulp in this period is differentiated, with an upward price movement being weak. The price fluctuations of pulp are due to factors such as futures market influence, changes in market supply - demand, and port inventory [4][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Content 3.1 Fundamental Data - **Futures Market**: The day - closing price of pulp's main contract was 5,436 yuan/ton (down 58 from the previous day), and the night - closing price was 5,402 yuan/ton (down 78). The trading volume decreased by 11,236 hands, while the open interest of the 05 contract increased by 15,482 hands. The net position of the top 20 members decreased by 1,851 hands, and the warehouse receipt quantity remained unchanged [3] - **Spread Data**: The basis of "Yinxing - Futures Main" increased by 8, and the basis of "Jinyu - Futures Main (Non - standard)" increased by 28. The monthly spread of SP03 - SP05 decreased by 2 [3] - **Spot Market**: The domestic prices of different pulp brands vary. For example, the price of Northwood (softwood pulp) is 5,800 yuan/ton, and the international price of Yinxing is 710 US dollars/ton [3] 3.2 Industry News - The sentiment in the imported pulp market has turned dull. As of Thursday this week, the average spot tax - included price of softwood pulp decreased by 0.3% compared to the previous period, that of hardwood pulp increased by 0.6%, that of natural pulp decreased by 1.5%, and that of chemimechanical pulp remained flat [4] - The reasons for pulp price fluctuations are: the price of softwood pulp is mainly affected by the futures market; the supply shortage of hardwood pulp has eased; ports continue to accumulate inventory, and the downstream market lacks pre - Spring Festival restocking demand [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report - Gold: The risk - aversion sentiment has rebounded [2]. - Silver: There is volatility in tariff expectations [2]. - Copper: The strengthening of the US dollar restricts price increases [2]. - Zinc: It is prone to rise and difficult to fall [2]. - Lead: The decrease in LME inventory supports the price [2]. - Tin: It is consolidating at a high level [2]. - Aluminum: It is under slight pressure; Alumina is oscillating downward; Cast aluminum alloy follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum [2]. - Platinum: It is oscillating upward [2]. - Palladium: It is following the upward oscillation [2]. - Nickel: There is a game between industrial and secondary funds, and it is operating in a wide - range oscillation [2]. - Stainless steel: Ferronickel raises the oscillation center, and the market is in a game about Indonesian policies [2]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Price and Trading Volume**: For gold, the closing price of Shanghai Gold 2602 was 1,035.20 with a daily decline of 0.52%, and the night - session closing price was 1035.98 with a 0.04% increase. For silver, the closing price of Shanghai Silver 2602 was 22713 with a 0.41% decline, and the night - session closing price was 23089.00 with a 1.40% increase. The trading volume and positions of both gold and silver futures decreased compared to the previous day [4]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of Shanghai Gold was unchanged, while Comex gold inventory (in the previous day) decreased by 80,956 ounces. The inventory of Shanghai Silver increased by 9703 kilograms, and Comex silver inventory (in the previous day) decreased by 1,311,010 ounces [4]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The People's Bank of China decided to lower the re - loan and re - discount rates by 25 basis points and stated that there is still room for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts this year [4][6][11][15][20]. Copper - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of Shanghai Copper's main contract was 102,560, with a 1.26% daily decline, and the night - session closing price was 102860 with a 0.29% increase. The trading volume of Shanghai Copper Index decreased by 48,394, and the position decreased by 14,853 [7]. - **Inventory and Spread**: The inventory of Shanghai Copper increased by 13,378 tons, and the inventory of LME Copper decreased by 500 tons. The spread of LME copper and other related spreads changed to varying degrees [7]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The People's Bank of China lowered interest rates; the US employment market remained resilient; the copper premium proposed by Pan - Pacific Copper to Japanese customers in 2026 reached a new high; the copper production of Codelco in November decreased by 3%; the US government may lift the mining ban; Codelco proposed a 1.3 - billion - dollar plan to extend the life of a copper mine; the State Grid plans to increase fixed - asset investment [7][9]. Zinc - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of Shanghai Zinc's main contract was 25090, with a 2.51% increase. The trading volume of Shanghai Zinc's main contract increased by 259257, and the position increased by 22673 [10]. - **News**: The Trump administration decided not to impose tariffs on key minerals for the time being; the central bank lowered interest rates and may cut the reserve requirement ratio and interest rates further [11][13]. Lead - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of Shanghai Lead's main contract was 17550, with a 0.95% increase. The trading volume of Shanghai Lead's main contract increased by 40261, and the position increased by 7992 [14]. - **Inventory and News**: The inventory of LME Lead decreased by 3800 tons. The central bank lowered interest rates, and the US employment market remained resilient [14][15]. Tin - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of Shanghai Tin's main contract was 433.000, with a 4.80% increase, and the night - session closing price was 418.860 with a 3.27% decline. The trading volume of Shanghai Tin's main contract increased by 187.519 [18]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The State - owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission emphasized the innovation of state - owned enterprises; Goldman Sachs planned to issue at least 12 billion US dollars in bonds; the central bank lowered interest rates; the demand for AI chips was strong [18][19][20][21]. Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of Shanghai Aluminum's main contract was 24375, with a decrease of 220. The prices of alumina and cast aluminum alloy also changed. The trading volume and positions of related contracts changed to varying degrees [24]. - **Inventory and Spread**: The inventory of LME Aluminum decreased by 0.20 million tons. Various spreads also had different changes [24]. - **Comprehensive News**: China's social financing scale increased significantly in 2025; the Pentagon adjusted the aircraft - carrier strike group, and Iran temporarily closed its airspace [25]. Platinum and Palladium - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of platinum futures 2606 was 609.05, with a 3.43% decline; the closing price of palladium futures 2606 was 478.60, with a 3.41% decline. The trading volume and positions of platinum and palladium futures changed compared to the previous day [28]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Trump postponed the decision on military strikes against Iran; the US mortgage rate dropped to a three - year low; the US planned to establish a strategic reserve for key minerals; the US initial jobless claims were lower than expected; the Chinese central bank introduced measures to support the economy [30][31]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of Shanghai Nickel's main contract was 146,750, with an increase of 5,810; the closing price of stainless steel's main contract was 14,415, with an increase of 490. The trading volume and positions of relevant contracts changed [33]. - **Industry News**: Indonesia suspended the issuance of new smelting licenses; China implemented export license management for some steel products; Indonesia planned to revise the nickel ore price formula, lower the production target, and some mines faced fines [33][34][36].

2026 年 01 月 16 日 甲醇：跟随商品指数震荡回落 【基本面跟踪】 甲醇基本面数据 | 项 | 目 | 项目名称 | | 昨日数据 | 前日数据 | 变动幅度 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 甲醇主力 | 收盘价 | （元/吨） | 2,273 | 2,288 | -15 -99314 | | | | 结算价 | （元/吨） | 2,284 | 2,285 | - 1 | | | | 成交量 | （手） | 1,472,669 | 1,571,983 | | | | （05合约） | 持仓量 | （手） | 829,376 | 823,784 | 5592 | | | | 仓单数量 | （吨） | 8,355 | 7,655 | 700 | | | | 成交额 | （万元） | 3,363,551 | 3,592,518 | -228968 | | | 基 差 | 基 差 | | -33 | -31 | - 2 | | | 月 差 | MA01-MA05 | | -115 | -37 | -78 | | 现货市场 | | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The inventory of lithium carbonate is being reduced, and the purchasing willingness is increasing, so there may be support at the lower level [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market**: - For the 2605 contract, the closing price is 163,220 yuan, the trading volume is 431,256 lots, and the open interest is 443,942 lots [1] - For the 2607 contract, the closing price is 164,400 yuan, the trading volume is 103,578 lots, and the open interest is 130,744 lots [1] - **Basis**: - The basis of spot - 2605 is -4,220 yuan; the basis of spot - 2607 is -5,400 yuan; the basis of 2605 - 2607 is -1,180 yuan; the difference between electric carbon and industrial carbon is 3,500 yuan; the difference between spot and CIF is 43,998 yuan [1] - **Raw Materials and Lithium Salts**: - The price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) is 2,060 yuan; the price of lithium mica (2.0% - 2.5%) is 4,935 yuan [1] - The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 159,000 yuan; the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 155,500 yuan; the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (micropowder) is 154,850 yuan [1] - The prices of various types of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials are also provided, as well as the prices of hexafluorophosphate lithium and electrolyte [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - SMM's battery - grade lithium carbonate index price is 160,260 yuan/ton, down 5,337 yuan/ton from the previous working day; the average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 159,000 yuan/ton, down 4,000 yuan/ton; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 155,500 yuan/ton, down 4,000 yuan/ton [2] - The price of electrolyte (for lithium iron phosphate) is 35,750 yuan [2] 3.3 Production and Inventory - This week, the lithium carbonate production is 22,605 tons, an increase of 70 tons from last week; the industry inventory is 109,679 tons, achieving a de - stocking of 263 tons from last week [3] 3.4 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of lithium carbonate is 0, indicating a neutral view [3]