观点与策略 2025年10月16日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-能源化工 | 对二甲苯：中期仍偏弱 | 2 | | --- | --- | | PTA：中期仍偏弱 | 2 | | MEG：1-5月差反套 | 2 | | 橡胶：震荡运行 | 4 | | 合成橡胶：短期反弹，趋势仍承压 | 6 | | 沥青：出货承压 | 8 | | LLDPE：趋势偏弱 | 10 | | PP：趋势仍偏弱 | 11 | | 烧碱：短期反弹，高度或有限 | 12 | | 纸浆：震荡运行 | 13 | | 玻璃：原片价格平稳 | 15 | | 甲醇：震荡承压 | 16 | | 尿素：短期震荡，趋势承压 | 18 | | 苯乙烯：空单止盈 | 20 | | 纯碱：现货市场变化不大 | 21 | | LPG：低位相对抗跌，成本压力仍存 | 22 | | 丙烯：需求转弱，短期弱势运行 | 22 | | PVC：趋势偏弱 | 25 | | 燃料油：夜盘小幅反弹，短期弱势仍在 | 26 | | 低硫燃料油：短期继续弱于高硫，外盘现货高低硫价差再次收窄 | 26 | | 集运指数（欧线）：震荡市 | 27 | | 短纤：成交支撑，下方空间不大 | ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report The price of copper is under pressure due to the increase in domestic inventory [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Copper Fundamental Data - **Futures Prices and Changes**: The closing price of the Shanghai Copper main contract was 85,800 with a daily increase of 1.65%, and the night - session closing price was 85,260 with a decline of 0.69%. The LME Copper 3M electronic disk closed at 10,576 with a decline of 0.08% [1]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the Shanghai Copper main contract was 115,060, a decrease of 53,254 from the previous day, and the open interest was 208,930, an increase of 13,663. The trading volume of the LME Copper 3M electronic disk was 16,201, a decrease of 12,872, and the open interest was 320,000, an increase of 2,953 [1]. - **Futures Inventory**: The Shanghai Copper inventory was 44,531, an increase of 8,236, and the LME Copper inventory was 138,350, a decrease of 450. The LME Copper注销仓单 ratio was 6.18%, a decrease of 1.55% [1]. - **Price Spreads**: The LME Copper cash - to - 3M spread decreased by 26.93 to 27.94. The Shanghai copper spot - to - futures near - month spread increased by 40 to 90 [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Macro News**: In September in China, the new social financing was 3.53 trillion yuan, the new RMB loans were 1.29 trillion yuan, and the M2 - M1 scissors - gap reached a new low for the year. The year - on - year decline of CPI narrowed to 0.3%, the core CPI returned to 1% for the first time in 19 months, and the year - on - year decline of PPI narrowed to 2.3%. In the US, economic activity has changed little since early September, and tariffs have pushed up prices, affecting consumers [1]. - **Industry News**: The investigation of the accident at Chile's El Teniente copper mine will take months. Codelco's copper production in August was 93,400 tons, a 25% year - on - year decline. In September, China's imports of copper ore and concentrates were 258.7 million tons, and the cumulative imports from January to September were 2.2634 billion tons, a 7.7% year - on - year increase. The imports of unwrought copper and copper products in September were 485,000 tons, and the cumulative imports from January to September were 4.019 million tons, a 1.7% year - on - year decrease. Germany's Aurubis has had preliminary consultations with the US on support policies for a new copper smelter [3]. 3.3 Trend Intensity The trend intensity of copper is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [3].

Report Investment Ratings - Aluminum: Consolidating with oscillations [1] - Alumina: Profit compression [1] - Cast aluminum alloy: Following the trend of electrolytic aluminum [1] Core Views - The report provides updated fundamental data for aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy, including prices, trading volumes, open interests, spreads, cost - profit situations, and inventory levels in both the futures and spot markets [1]. - It also presents macro - economic data such as China's September CPI, PPI, and new social financing, and analyzes their implications [3]. - The trend intensities for aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy are 0, - 1, and 0 respectively [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market Electrolytic Aluminum - The closing price of the SHFE aluminum main contract was 20,910, with a night - session closing price of 20,885. The LME aluminum 3M closing price was 2,745 [1]. - Trading volume and open interest of the SHFE aluminum main contract decreased compared to previous periods. The LME aluminum 3M trading volume also showed changes [1]. - The LME canceled warrant ratio was 19.50%, and the LME aluminum cash - 3M spread was 6.66 [1]. - The spread between the near - month and the first - continuous contract was - 55, and the cost of the near - month long and first - continuous short inter - delivery spread arbitrage was 70.58 [1]. Alumina - The closing price of the SHFE alumina main contract was 2,797, with a night - session closing price of 2,780 [1]. - Trading volume and open interest of the SHFE alumina main contract had different trends compared to previous periods [1]. - The spread between the near - month and the first - continuous contract was 7, and the cost of the near - month long and first - continuous short inter - delivery spread arbitrage was 22.15 [1]. Aluminum Alloy - The closing price of the aluminum alloy main contract was 20,410, with a night - session closing price of 20,425 [1]. - Trading volume and open interest of the aluminum alloy main contract changed compared to previous periods [1]. - The spread between the near - month and the first - continuous contract was - 45, and the spot premium was 30 [1]. Spot Market Electrolytic Aluminum - The pre - baked anode market price, aluminum rod processing fees, and aluminum ingot scrap - refined spread showed different changes [1]. - Electrolytic aluminum enterprises' profit was 4,748.93, and the import profit and loss of aluminum spot and 3M had different values [1]. - The domestic social inventory of aluminum ingots was 64.20 million tons, and the LME aluminum ingot inventory was 49.90 million tons [1]. Alumina - The domestic average price of alumina was 2,974, and the alumina prices at Lianyungang in different units had different trends [1]. - Alumina enterprises in Shanxi had a loss of - 42, and the prices of imported bauxite from different regions changed slightly [1]. Aluminum Alloy - The theoretical profit of ADC12 was 180, and the price of Baotai ADC12 was 20,600 [1]. - The difference between Baotai ADC12 and A00 was - 320, and the total inventory of three regions was 49,125 [1]. Caustic Soda - The price of Shaanxi ion - exchange membrane liquid caustic soda (32% converted to 100%) was 2,830 [1]. Macroeconomic Data - In September, China's CPI year - on - year decline narrowed to 0.3%, core CPI returned to 1% for the first time in 19 months, and PPI year - on - year decline narrowed to 2.3% [3]. - China's new social financing in September was 3.53 trillion yuan, new RMB loans were 1.29 trillion yuan, and the M2 - M1 gap reached a new low of 1.2 percentage points [3].

商 品 研 究 2025 年 10 月 16 日 豆粕：技术性交易，震荡 豆一：偏强震荡 吴光静 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011992 wuguangjing@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 豆粕/豆一基本面数据 | | | 收盘价 （日盘） | 涨 跌 | 收盘价 （夜盘） 涨 跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | DCE豆一2601 （元/吨） | 3999 | +30（+0.76%） | 4016 +28（+0.70%） | | 期 货 | DCE豆粕2601 （元/吨） | 2917 | +5（+0.17%） | 2917 +3（+0.10%） | | | CBOT大豆11 （美分/蒲） | 1007 | +0.75（+0.07%） | | | | CBOT豆粕12 （美元/短吨） | 275.9 | +1.1 （+0.40%） | n a | | | | | 豆粕 （43%） | | | | | 2960～2980， | 较昨持平或+10； 现货基差M2601+90， | 较昨持平； 11-1月 | | | 山东 （元/吨） | M2601+40/+80； ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report Through macro - fundamental analysis and technical analysis, the report predicts the trend of various futures on October 16, 2025, including股指期货,国债期货, precious metal futures, base metal futures, and energy and chemical futures, and also provides resistance and support levels for each futures contract [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market Outlook - **Stock Index Futures**: Expected to oscillate and consolidate on October 16, 2025. For example, IF2512 has resistance levels at 4609 and 4632 points, and support levels at 4549 and 4498 points [2]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The ten - year Treasury bond futures T2512 and the thirty - year Treasury bond futures TL2512 are likely to have wide - range oscillations on October 16, 2025 [2]. - **Precious Metal Futures**: Gold futures AU2512 and silver futures AG2512 are likely to oscillate strongly on October 16, 2025, and may reach new highs since listing [2]. - **Base Metal Futures**: Copper, aluminum, zinc, etc. are likely to oscillate weakly on October 16, 2025 [2]. - **Other Futures**: Polycrystalline silicon futures PS2511 is likely to have wide - range oscillations; steel products, coal, glass, etc. are likely to oscillate weakly on October 16, 2025 [2]. Macro News and Trading Tips - **Financial Data**: In September, M2 increased by 8.4% year - on - year, M1 increased by 7.2% year - on - year, and the "gap" between M1 and M2 reached a new low for the year. The average lending rate for enterprises and individuals remained low [7]. - **Inflation Data**: In September, CPI increased by 0.1% month - on - month and decreased by 0.3% year - on - year; core CPI increased by 1% year - on - year; PPI remained flat month - on - month and decreased by 2.3% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing [7]. - **International Trade**: The US threatened to impose 100% tariffs on China, and the EU tried to force Chinese enterprises to transfer technology. China firmly opposed such actions [8]. - **Economic Policy**: To consolidate and expand the economic recovery, it is necessary to balance supply and demand, manage expectations, and improve the efficiency of macro - regulation [8]. - **Industry Development**: In the first three quarters, the manufacturing industry showed positive development, and there were also achievements in digital economy reform and high - end electronic measurement instruments [9]. - **International Finance**: The IMF warned that global public debt may exceed 100% of GDP by 2029, and the US government shutdown continued, affecting market sentiment [10]. Futures Market Analysis and Outlook - **Stock Index Futures**: On October 15, 2025, major stock index futures contracts such as IF2512, IH2512, IC2512, and IM2512 showed a trend of opening slightly higher, rising after a decline, and then oscillating upwards. It is expected that in October 2025, they will likely have weak wide - range oscillations [14]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: On October 15, 2025, the ten - year and thirty - year Treasury bond futures contracts showed a trend of opening slightly lower, rising after a decline, and then oscillating weakly. It is expected that on October 16, 2025, they will have wide - range oscillations [37]. - **Precious Metal Futures**: Gold and silver futures showed a strong upward trend on October 15, 2025, and reached new highs during night trading. It is expected that in October 2025, they will oscillate strongly and may reach new highs since listing [42]. - **Base Metal Futures**: Copper, aluminum, zinc, etc. showed different trends on October 15, 2025. It is expected that in October 2025, they will have wide - range oscillations, and on October 16, 2025, copper and aluminum futures will oscillate weakly [57]. - **Other Futures**: Polycrystalline silicon futures showed an upward trend on October 15, 2025. Steel products, coal, glass, etc. showed a downward trend, and it is expected that on October 16, 2025, they will oscillate weakly [76].

| 镍：宏观情绪转承压，镍价低位震荡 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 不锈钢：宏观与现实共振施压，下方成本限制弹性 | 2 | | 碳酸锂：现货表现坚挺，短期区间震荡延续 | 4 | | 工业硅：弱势震荡趋势 | 6 | | 多晶硅：关注今日会议内容，盘面偏强运行 | 6 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 2025年10月16日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-绿色金融与新能源 观点与策略 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 10 月 16 日 镍：宏观情绪转承压，镍价低位震荡 不锈钢：宏观与现实共振施压，下方成本限制弹性 张再宇 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021479 zhangzaiyu@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 镍基本面数据 | | | 指标名称 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-10 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 沪镍主力（收盘价） | 121,180 | 350 | 280 | 450 | -130 | 640 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - China's CPI and PPI year - on - year decline narrowed in September, showing the characteristics of "overall weakness, stable domestic demand, and structural differentiation", with positive signals accumulating and signs of steady repair of the economy's endogenous demand power [6][7]. - For different commodities, there are different market trends and investment suggestions, such as gold continuing to hit new highs, copper having long - term bullish allocation value despite short - term disturbances, etc. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 China's Economic Data - China's September CPI was - 0.3% year - on - year (previous value - 0.4%), with a month - on - month increase from flat to 0.1%. The core CPI increased by 1.0% year - on - year, and the increase has been expanding for the 5th consecutive month, reaching 1% for the first time in nearly 19 months. PPI was - 2.3% year - on - year (previous value - 2.9%), and the month - on - month was flat for two consecutive months [7]. - In September, China's new social financing was 3.53 trillion yuan, new RMB loans were 1.29 trillion yuan, and the M2 - M1 scissors gap reached a new low for the year [20][24]. 3.2 Commodity Analysis 3.2.1 PTA - It is recommended to hold the 1 - 5 reverse spread. The unilateral trend is weak. The cost support of the polyester industry chain is weak, and the supply in the East China spot market is still sufficient. The new device of Xin凤鸣 Dushan Energy Phase 4 is about to be put into production, and the basis has declined [8]. 3.2.2 Copper - In the short term, prices are under pressure due to trade news and concerns about high prices in the US. In the long term, it has bullish allocation value as the supply of copper raw materials is expected to be tight, with some mines reducing production [10]. 3.2.3 Black Metals - The long - term bottom has emerged, but the peak season demand is weak. To maintain inventory balance, supply needs to be reduced, and attention should be paid to the production rhythm of electric furnaces [13][14]. 3.2.4 Gold and Silver - Gold continues to hit new highs, while silver's spot contradiction eases, and its price rises and then falls [17][20]. 3.2.5 Other Commodities - Each commodity has its own market trend, such as zinc showing a weak shock, lead being restricted by inventory increase, etc. [17][27][30]

Report Overview - The report is the "Guotai Junan Futures Commodity Research Morning Report - Agricultural Products" dated October 16, 2025, covering multiple agricultural product futures including palm oil, soybean oil, etc. [1] Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the report Core Views - Palm oil: Limited drivers from the origin, continue to hold the reverse spread [2][4] - Soybean oil: Range-bound, pay attention to Sino-US economic and trade relations [2][4] - Soybean meal: Technical trading, oscillating [2] - Soybean: Stronger oscillation [2] - Corn: Pay attention to the listing of new grain [2] - Sugar: Narrow consolidation [2] - Cotton: Expected to oscillate narrowly in the short term [2] - Eggs: Oscillating [2] - Pigs: The second - fattening logic leads to a downward shift in expectations [2] - Peanuts: Pay attention to the weather in the producing areas [2] Summary by Commodity Palm Oil - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of the palm oil main contract was 9,322 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 0.09% and no change at night. Trading volume decreased by 77,751 lots, and positions increased by 2,263 lots. The spot price in Guangdong was 9,200 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan/ton. The export volume of Malaysian palm oil from October 1 - 15 increased by 16.2% compared to the same period last month. Indonesia plans to raise the export tax on crude palm oil from 10% to 15% [5][6][7] - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [9] Soybean Oil - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of the soybean oil main contract was 8,252 yuan/ton, up 0.15% during the day and down 0.22% at night. Trading volume decreased by 52,905 lots, and positions increased by 3,429 lots. The spot price in Guangdong was 8,590 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton [5] - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [9] Soybean Meal - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of the DCE soybean meal 2601 contract was 2,917 yuan/ton, up 0.17% during the day and 0.10% at night. The spot price in Shandong was 2,960 - 2,980 yuan/ton, with stable or +10 yuan/ton changes. The trading volume was 110,000 tons, and the inventory was 1.0467 million tons [10] - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [12] Soybean - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of the DCE soybean 2601 contract was 3,999 yuan/ton, up 0.76% during the day and 0.70% at night [10] - **Trend Intensity**: +1 [12] Corn - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of the C2601 contract was 2,127 yuan/ton, up 1.05% during the day and 0.24% at night. The trading volume decreased by 61,849 lots, and positions increased by 33,636 lots. The spot price in Guangdong Shekou was 2,340 yuan/ton, unchanged. The northern corn bulk shipping port price decreased by 10 - 30 yuan/ton [13][14] - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [17] Sugar - **Fundamentals**: The raw sugar price was 15.67 cents/pound, down 0.2 cents. The domestic 24/25 and 25/26 sugar production, consumption, and import volume were estimated. The global 25/26 sugar supply is expected to be in a shortage of 230,000 tons [19][20][21] - **Trend Intensity**: -1 [22] Cotton - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of the CF2601 contract was 13,270 yuan/ton, up 0.04% during the day and down 0.08% at night. The spot price of northern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 14,407 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton. Cotton spot trading was average, and spinning mills maintained rigid demand procurement [24][25] - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [28] Eggs - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of the egg 2601 contract was 3,204 yuan/500kg, down 0.87%. The spot price in Liaoning was 2.80 yuan/jin, unchanged [29] - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [29] Pigs - **Fundamentals**: The spot price in Henan was 11,130 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton. The closing price of the pig 2601 contract was 12,195 yuan/ton, down 210 yuan/ton. Guizhou Zhenfeng Fuyuan registered 21 lots of warehouse receipts [32][33] - **Trend Intensity**: -1 [34] Peanuts - **Fundamentals**: The spot price of Liaoning 308 general goods was 8,300 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton. The closing price of the PK601 contract was 8,062 yuan/ton, up 0.57%. Rainy weather affected the peanut harvest and listing in many producing areas [36][37] - **Trend Intensity**: 1 [39]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Iron ore is expected to experience wide - range fluctuations [2][7] - Rebar and hot - rolled coil are likely to see a slight price correction due to weak current situations and weakening expectations [2][8] - Ferrosilicon and silicomanganese are expected to have wide - range fluctuations with cost as the bottom support [2][13] - Coke and coking coal are expected to have wide - range fluctuations due to repeated expectations [2][16][17] - Logs are expected to have repeated fluctuations [2][19] 3. Summaries Based on Relevant Catalogs Iron Ore - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of I2601 was 776.5 yuan/ton, down 5.5 yuan/ton (-0.70%). The trading volume was 508,365 hands, up 8,566 hands. Imported and domestic ore prices mostly declined slightly, and some basis and spread values changed slightly [5] - **Macro and Industry News**: In September 2025, the national industrial producer price index decreased by 2.3% year - on - year, with a narrowing decline [6] - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of iron ore is 0, indicating a neutral view [6] Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of RB2601 was 3,034 yuan/ton, down 26 yuan/ton (-0.85%), and HC2601 was 3,212 yuan/ton, down 28 yuan/ton (-0.86%). Spot prices in various regions decreased, and some basis and spread values changed [8] - **Macro and Industry News**: In early October 2025, the average daily output of key steel enterprises' crude steel increased by 7.5% month - on - month, pig iron increased by 3.2%, and steel decreased by 8.5%. Steel inventories increased. In August 2025, steel exports decreased slightly, and imports increased [8][10] - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of rebar and hot - rolled coil is 0, indicating a neutral view [11] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Fundamental Data**: Futures and spot prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese changed, and some basis, near - far month spread, and cross - variety spread values also changed [13] - **Macro and Industry News**: There were price quotes for ferrosilicon and silicomanganese in the market, and a large steel mill's inquiry prices for ferrosilicon and silicomanganese in October changed compared to September [13] - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese is 0, indicating a neutral view [15] Coke and Coking Coal - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of JM2601 was 1,151 yuan/ton, down 2.5 yuan/ton (-0.2%), and J2601 was 1,642 yuan/ton, down 12.5 yuan/ton (-0.8%). Spot prices were mostly stable, and some basis and spread values changed [17] - **Macro and Industry News**: In September 2025, the national industrial producer price index decreased by 2.3% year - on - year, with a narrowing decline [18] - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of coke is 0 (neutral), and that of coking coal is 1 (slightly bullish) [18] Logs - **Fundamental Data**: Futures contract prices, trading volumes, and open interests of logs changed, and spot prices in different regions were mostly stable [20] - **Macro and Industry News**: In September 2025, the national industrial producer price index decreased by 2.3% year - on - year, with a narrowing decline [22] - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of logs is 0, indicating a neutral view [22]

2025 年 10 月 16 日 商 品 研 究 硅铁：成本底部支撑，宽幅震荡 锰硅：成本底部支撑，宽幅震荡 | | 李亚飞 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021184 | liyafei2@gtht.com | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 金园园（联系人） | 期货从业资格号：F03134630 | jinyuanyuan2@gtht.com | | 【基本面跟踪】 | | | | 硅铁、锰硅基本面数据 | | 期货合约 | 收盘价 | 较前一交易日 | 成交量 | 持仓量 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 硅 铁2511 | 5376 | - 2 | 82,305 | 62,164 | | 期 货 | 硅 铁2601 | 5352 | 3 0 | 109,840 | 189,336 | | | 硅2511 锰 | 5732 | 6 | 9,208 | 15,602 | | | 锰 硅2601 | 5746 | 8 | 166,961 | 372,302 | | | 项 目 | | | 价 格 | 较前一交易日 | 单 位 ...