2026年01月29日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-贵金属及基本金属 观点与策略 | 黄金：再创新高 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 白银：冲刺120 | 2 | | 铜：美元承压，价格偏强 | 4 | | 锌：现实偏强 | 6 | | 铅：海外库存减少，支撑价格 | 8 | | 锡：区间震荡 | 9 | | 铝：震荡偏强 | 10 | | 氧化铝：逢高沽空 | 10 | | 铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝 | 10 | | 铂：跟随抬升 | 12 | | 钯：警惕补涨 | 12 | | 镍：印尼事件悬而未决，套保与投机盘博弈 | 14 | | 不锈钢：印尼加剧镍矿担忧，镍铁跟涨支撑重心 | 14 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 商 品 研 究 2026 年 1 月 29 日 黄金：再创新高 白银：冲刺 120 刘雨萱 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 liuyuxuan023982@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 期货研究 贵金属基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- ...

2026年01月29日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-黑色系列 观点与策略 | 铁矿石：预期现实博弈，价格震荡 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢：宽幅震荡 | 3 | | 热轧卷板：宽幅震荡 | 3 | | 硅铁：成本底部支撑，宽幅震荡 | 5 | | 锰硅：成本底部支撑，宽幅震荡 | 5 | | 焦炭：一轮提涨落地，区间震荡 | 7 | | 焦煤：区间震荡 | 7 | | 动力煤：供需趋于双弱，煤价小幅探涨 | 9 | | 原木：区间震荡 | 10 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 商 品 研 究 铁矿石：预期现实博弈，价格震荡 李亚飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021184 liyafei2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 铁矿石基本面数据 | | | | 昨日收盘价（元/吨） | 涨跌（元/吨） | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期 货 | | | | -5.0 | -0.63% | | | I2605 | | 783.0 | 昨日持仓（手） | 持仓变动 （ ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating The document does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core View The EU carbon market is facing a high-level decline in EUA due to lingering tariff concerns. The first-level auction price and second-level EUA futures settlement price both decreased, and the market is affected by potential events such as the European Parliament's review of the EU - US trade agreement and the plan to increase North Sea turbine deployment [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Conditions - First-level: The auction price was 86.4 euros/ton, a decrease of 1.27%, and the bid coverage ratio was 1.48 [2]. - Second-level: The EUA futures settlement price was 87.13 euros/ton, a decrease of 1.44%, and the trading volume was 37,000 lots, an increase of 0.93 [2]. - The EUA spot settlement price was 85.23 euros/ton, a decrease of 1.42%, and the trading volume was 1,799 lots, a decrease of 4,767 lots [3]. Strategy - There are no new bullish or bearish factors [2]. Core Logic - The European Parliament will re - examine the EU - US trade agreement next week [2]. - Europe has agreed to significantly increase the deployment of North Sea turbines, aiming to reach 100 gigawatts by 2050 [2].

Report Information - Report Title: EU Carbon Market Market Briefing (Issue 17, 2026) [1] - Release Date: January 29, 2026 [2] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core View - The EU carbon market is facing tariff concerns, and the EU Allowance (EUA) price has fallen from its high. The first - level auction price and the second - level EUA futures settlement price both decreased, with decreases of 1.27% and 1.44% respectively [2] Content Summary by Directory Market Conditions - First - level: The auction price was 86.4 euros/ton, a decrease of 1.27%, and the bid coverage ratio was 1.48 [2] - Second - level: The EUA futures settlement price was 87.13 euros/ton, a decrease of 1.44%, and the trading volume was 37,000 lots, an increase of 0.93 [2] - EUA spot settlement price decreased by 1.42% to 85.23 euros/ton, and the spot trading volume was 1,799 lots, a decrease of 4,767 lots [3] Strategy and Core Logic - Bullish factors: No new bullish factors [2] - Bearish factors: No new bearish factors [2] - Other factors: The European Parliament will re - review the EU - US trade agreement next week; Europe has agreed to significantly increase the deployment of North Sea turbines, aiming to reach 100 gigawatts by 2050 [2]

银、原油、燃料油期货将震荡偏强 陶金峰 期货投资咨询从业资格号：Z0000372 邮箱：taojinfeng@gtht.com 【正文】 【声明】 本报告的观点和信息仅供风险承受能力合适的投资者参考。本报告难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不 便，敬请谅解。若您并非风险承受能力合适的投资者，请勿阅读、订阅或接收任何相关信息。本报告不构 成具体业务或产品的推介，亦不应被视为相应金融衍生品的投资建议。请您根据自身的风险承受能力自行 作出投资决定并自主承担投资风险，不应凭借本内容进行具体操作。 【期货行情前瞻要点】 通过宏观基本面分析和黄金分割线、水平线、日均线等技术面分析，预期 2026年 1月期货主力（连续）合约行 情走势大概率如下： 2026 年 1 月 28 日 股指期货将偏强震荡 黄金期货将再创历史新高 黄金、白 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期 货 研 究 所 期货研究 、 期 货 行 情 前 瞻 研 究 通过宏观基本面分析和黄金分割线、水平线、日均线等技术面分析，预期今日期货主力合约行情走势大概率如 下： 期货品 种 主力合 约 趋势 阻力位 支撑位 重点备注 股指 IF2603 偏强震荡 4756 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment ratings for PX, PTA, and MEG are all "trending strongly" [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - PX has a medium - term unilateral upward trend, with more pre - holiday corrections and a 3 - 5 reverse spread operation due to supply relaxation and a focus on the capital side, and the unilateral price remains strong due to downstream pre - spring demand [4] - PTA has a unilateral upward trend, with more pre - holiday corrections. Future supply and demand will be weak, leading to a stock - building situation. There is support around the 5100 - 5200 range, and the processing fee should be shorted on rallies [5] - MEG should be bought on dips and traded in the 3800 - 4200 range. Supply pressure is high, but the downside is limited, and the short - term trend is still strong [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **PX**: The closing price of the PX主力 was 7376, down 254 or 3.33%. The PX5 - 9 spread closed at 56, down 6 from the previous day [2] - **PTA**: The closing price of the PTA主力 was 5258, down 180 or 3.31%. The PTA5 - 9 spread closed at 16, down 14 from the previous day [2] - **MEG**: The closing price of the MEG主力 was 3938, down 56 or 1.40%. The MEG5 - 9 spread closed at - 92, up 5 from the previous day [2] - **PF**: The closing price of the PF主力 was 6662, down 164 or 2.40%. The PF3 - 4 spread closed at - 46, up 4 from the previous day [2] - **SC**: The closing price of the SC主力 was 446.7, down 10.6 or 2.32%. The SC2 - 3 spread closed at 8.3, up 12.6 from the previous day [2] 3.2 Spot Market - **PX**: The PX CFR China price was 902.67 dollars/ton, down 27 dollars/ton from the previous day. The PX - naphtha price difference was 357.42 dollars/ton, up 17.75 dollars/ton from the previous day [2] - **PTA**: The PTA East China price was 5220 yuan/ton, down 130 yuan/ton from the previous day. The PTA processing fee was 415.64 yuan/ton, up 51.69 yuan/ton from the previous day [2] - **MEG**: The MEG spot price was 3827 yuan/ton, down 58 yuan/ton from the previous day [2] - **Naphtha**: The MOPJ naphtha price was 568.5 dollars/ton, down 4.75 dollars/ton from the previous day. The MOPJ naphtha - Dubai crude oil price difference was - 4.34 dollars/barrel, unchanged from the previous day [2] - **Brent**: The Dated Brent price was 69.08 dollars/barrel, up 1.27 dollars/barrel from the previous day [2] 3.3 Fundamental Data - **PX**: An 800,000 - ton PX plant in South China is restarting and expected to produce products soon. The PX spot price dropped significantly on January 27, and the 2 - month MOPJ naphtha price was around 563 dollars/ton CFR [3] - **MEG**: From January 26 to February 1, the planned arrival quantity at the main ports was about 147,000 tons [3] - **Polyester**: On January 27, the sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were weak, with an average sales rate of about 30%. The sales of direct - spun polyester staple fibers were highly differentiated, with an average sales rate of 68% [3][4]

2026年01月28日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-能源化工 观点与策略 | 对二甲苯：单边偏强，月差反套 | 2 | | --- | --- | | PTA：单边趋势偏强 | 2 | | MEG：趋势仍偏强 | 2 | | 橡胶：震荡运行20260128 | 4 | | 合成橡胶:高位回落 | 6 | | LLDPE：美金递盘暂少，上游报价挺涨 | 8 | | PP：C3原料表现偏强，利润暂修复有限 | 9 | | 烧碱：低位震荡 | 10 | | 纸浆：震荡运行20260128 | 11 | | 玻璃：原片价格平稳 | 13 | | 甲醇：震荡有支撑 | 14 | | 尿素：震荡有支撑 | 16 | | 苯乙烯：偏强震荡 | 18 | | 纯碱：现货市场变化不大 | 19 | | LPG：短期地缘扰动偏强 | 20 | | 丙烯：需求支撑坚挺，现货强势走高 | 20 | | PVC：区间震荡 | 23 | | 燃料油：夜盘震荡，高波动态势延续 | 24 | | 低硫燃料油：窄幅调整，外盘现货高低硫价差小幅反弹 | 24 | | 集运指数（欧线）：震荡市，谨防地缘炒作反复 | 25 | | 短纤：短期回调，高 ...

2026 年 1 月 28 日 商 品 研 究 豆粕：美元偏弱、美豆收涨，连粕或反弹震荡 豆一：现货稳定，盘面反弹震荡 吴光静 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011992 wuguangjing@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 豆粕/豆一基本面数据 | | | 收盘价 （日盘） | 涨 跌 收盘价 （夜盘） 涨 跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | DCE豆一2605（元/吨） | 4364 -31 | （-0.71%） +25（+0.57%） 4376 | | 期 货 | DCE豆粕2605（元/吨） | 2766 | +0（+0.00%） 2770 +4（+0.14%） | | | CBOT大豆03（美分/蒲） | 1067.5 | +7.5（+0.71%） | | | CBOT豆粕03（美元/短吨） | 293.8 -0.2 | n a （-0.07%） | | | | | 豆粕 （43%） | | | | 3085～3140， | 较昨-20至持平； 现货M2605+440， 持平； 2月 | | | 山东 （元/吨） | M2605+360/+390/+410， M2605 ...

铝：偏强运行 氧化铝：检修增加 铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝 王蓉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 wangrong2@gtht.com 王宗源（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03142619 wangzongyuan@gtht.com 期 货 研 究 2026 年 01 月 28 日 所 铝、氧化铝、铸造铝合金基本面数据更新 | | | | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 沪铝主力合约收盘价 | 24305 | 90 | રૂરિક | 2390 | 3325 | | | | 沪铝主力合约夜盘收盘价 | 24350 | ー | ー | l | l | | | | LME铝3M收盘价 | 3213 | 17 | 94 | 307 | 467 | | | | 沪铝主力合约成交量 | 413754 | -97136 | -33779 | 229656 | 233876 | | | | 沪铝主力合约持仓量 | 311897 | -10190 | -20853 | 17907 | ...

2026年01月28日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报 观点与策略 | 黄金：再创新高 | 3 | | --- | --- | | 白银：冲刺100 | 3 | | 铜：美元回落，价格偏强 | 5 | | 锌：高位震荡 | 7 | | 铅：LME库存减少，支撑价格 | 9 | | 锡：高位震荡 | 10 | | 铝：偏强运行 | 11 | | 氧化铝：检修增加 | 11 | | 铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝 | 11 | | 铂：震荡向上 | 13 | | 钯：缓步扬头 | 13 | | 镍：印尼事件悬而未决，套保与投机盘博弈 | 15 | | 不锈钢：印尼加剧镍矿担忧，镍铁跟涨支撑重心 | 15 | | 碳酸锂：淡季需求回落有限，宽幅震荡 | 17 | | 工业硅：上游减产，盘面底部支撑 | 19 | | 多晶硅：关注今日会议整体情况 | 19 | | 铁矿石：刚需仍存，价格震荡 | 21 | | 螺纹钢：宽幅震荡 | 22 | | 热轧卷板：宽幅震荡 | 22 | | 硅铁：原料短期价格松动，宽幅震荡 | 24 | | 锰硅：原料短期价格松动，宽幅震荡 | 24 | | 焦炭：产业叠加资金配合，区间震荡 | 26 | ...