甲醇盘面延续弱势震荡。国产装置产能利用率持续大幅回升,内地多套烯烃装置停车检修,MTO行业开工率下 降,甲醇生产企业库存由降特升。进口到选量回升至中高位,江浙地区MTO装置开工率小幅提升,周期内港口呈 现黑阵。国内装置恢复叠加进口回归,内地以及港口或进入累库周期,后续需求预期延步转弱。供增需减,甲 酵行情弱势运行为主。 【尿素】 尿素主流区域现货价格稳中小涨,日内盘面先涨后跌。氮肥协会发布行业自律协议,近期出口放开的可能性较 大,但具体细则仍需等待官方发布。复合肥成品走货不佳,受尿素出口消息的提报不及预期,行业开工率持续 下降,后续农业备肥需求仍存在一定铁口。贸易商交投情绪浓厚,但厂家借信,生产企业库存下降。5月仍有新 增产能待投放,供应充足延续,若适量出口国内供应压力预期得到缓解,行情或维持区间震荡运行,持续关注 出口市场动态。 | 《》 国投期货 | | | | 化工日报 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 操作评级 | | 2025年05月09日 | | 尿素 | ななな | 甲醇 | ★☆☆ | 庞春艳 首席分析师 | | 苯乙烯 | ★☆★ | 聚丙烯 | ...

期市有风险，投资需谨慎 1 / 8 期市有风险，投资需谨慎 | | | Q1 2025 | Q4 2024 | Q1 2024 | 当季环比 | 当季同比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 淡水河谷 | 产量 | 67.7 | 85.3 | 70.8 | -20.7% | -4.5% | | | 销量 | 66.1 | 81.2 | 63.8 | -18.5% | 3.6% | | 必和必拓（100%权益） | 产量 | 67.8 | 73.1 | 68.1 | -7.3% | -0.4% | | | 销量 | 66.8 | 72.6 | 69.8 | -8.0% | -4.3% | | 力拓 (100%权益） | 产量 | 69.8 | 86.5 | 77.9 | -19.3% | -10.4% | | | 运量 | 70.7 | 85.7 | 78.0 | -17.5% | -9.4% | | FMG | 运量 | 46.1 | 49.4 | 43.3 | -6.7% | 6.5% | 2 / 8 期市有风险，投资需谨慎 3 / 8 期市有风险 ...

| 《》 国技期货 | | 能源日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | 操作评级 | | 2025年05月09日 | | 原油 | ななな | 高明宇 首席分析师 | | 燃料油 | 女女女 | F0302201 Z0012038 | | 低硫燃料油 文文☆ | | 李祖智 中级分析师 | | 沥青 | 女女女 | F3063857 Z0016599 | | 液化石油气 ☆☆☆ | | | | | | 王盈敏 中级分析师 | | | | F3066912 Z0016785 | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【原油】 隔夜国际油价再次反弹,S006会约日内涨2.3%。美英贸易协议达成,中美经贸高层会谈亦将在瑞士举行,贸易 战压力阶段性缓和。供应端美国财政部发布最新一轮对伊朗制裁,但哈萨克斯坦最新表态5月该国没有减产计 划,OPEC+快速增产压力仍存。油价中枢下移后短期到达稳态,高波动震荡阶段以观望为主。 【與東簽紙張燦來沒】 油价反弹下油品系期货音涨,燃油系期货表现偏强。OPEC+6月超预期增产对高硫燃料油利空, ...

★特朗普-1再称鲍威尔"太迟先生",是个傻瓜;2在新闻发布会中直接发出"现在最好买入股票"的号 召;3据悉特朗普寻求对年收入250万美元以上的富人增税,至39.6%;4呼吁俄乌两国无条件停火30天。 ★印巴冲突-1巴军方:已击落25架印度无人机,巴人员有伤亡;2美国国务卿分别与印巴同行进行了通 话，支持双方直接对话;3印度防长:"朱砂行动"仍在持续，不希望局势升级但也不会退缩；④巴外长: 印巴国家安全顾问在局势升级后进行过接触;5印度称印控克什米尔遵巴方袭击,巴基斯坦否认。 本报告版权属于国投期货有限公司 | Million | 国资前景 | 责金属日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年05月09日 | | 黄金 | ななな | 刘冬博 高级分析师 | | 白银 | ☆☆☆ | F3062795 Z0015311 | | | | 吴江 高级分析师 | | | | F3085524 Z0016394 | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 隔夜贵金属延续调整,日内波动较大。昨日美联储会议鲍 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: ☆☆☆, indicating a short - term equilibrium state with poor operability on the current market, suggesting to wait and see [1] - Pulp: ★☆★, with an unclear trend and no clear investment suggestion [1] - Sugar: ☆☆☆, suggesting a short - term equilibrium state and poor operability, waiting and seeing [1] - Apple: ☆☆☆, short - term equilibrium, poor operability, waiting and seeing [1] - Timber: ★☆★, unclear trend, no clear investment suggestion [1] - 20 - rubber: ★★★, a clear upward trend with appropriate investment opportunities [1] - Natural rubber: ★★★, a clear upward trend with appropriate investment opportunities [1] - Butadiene rubber: ★☆☆, a bullish drive but poor operability on the market [1] Core Views - The overall market shows a complex situation with different trends for various commodities. Some commodities are in a state of supply - demand balance, while others are affected by factors such as weather, production, and market sentiment. Overall, many commodities are recommended for short - term waiting and seeing [2][3][4] Summary by Commodity Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zhengzhou cotton rose slightly, with stable domestic spot basis. Downstream cotton yarn inventory is accumulating, and demand is weak. Xinjiang's cotton sowing is almost complete, and the emergence rate has increased. Internationally, US cotton is in the planting stage, and the drought has eased. Brazil's output is increasing. It is recommended to wait and see [2] Sugar - Overnight, US sugar rebounded. Brazil's production data in the first half of April was bearish, but most international consulting firms expect high sugar production in the 25/26 season. In China, sugar prices fluctuated. April's sales data was bullish, with low inventory. Overall, the upside space for Zhengzhou sugar is limited, and short - term prices are expected to fluctuate [3] Apple - Futures prices fluctuated. Spot prices were stable. After the festival, the market shipment slowed down, and cold - storage inventory is low. The market's focus is on the new - season's output estimate. Due to high - temperature and windy weather during the flowering period, the fruit - setting rate may be low. There are still differences in production expectations. It is recommended to wait and see [4] 20 - rubber, Natural rubber, and Synthetic rubber - RU rose slightly, NR fell, and BR rose. Global natural rubber supply is increasing, and domestic butadiene rubber plant operating rates declined. Domestic tire operating rates continued to fall, and inventory increased. In April, China's rubber imports increased year - on - year. It is expected that RU&NR will fluctuate, BR will rebound, and cross - variety arbitrage can be held [6] Pulp - Futures prices rose slightly. Spot prices were stable. As of May 8, 2025, China's mainstream port pulp inventory decreased. External quotes were lowered, and downstream procurement was weak. The terminal consumption of base paper was weak. It is recommended to wait and see [7] Logs - Futures prices were weak, and spot prices were stable. New Zealand's log shipments entered the off - season, and domestic arrivals will decrease. The peak of log shipments has passed, and inventory has decreased. The fundamentals are weak, and futures prices are expected to remain weak. It is recommended to wait and see [8]

期市有风险，投资需谨慎 2025 年 5 月 9 日 此报告版权属于国投期货有限公司 0 各项声明请参见报告尾页 | 2 | | | --- | --- | | | 5 | | | 8 | | 10 | | | 13 | | | 16 | | 期市有风险，投资需谨慎 此报告版权属于国投期货有限公司 2 各项声明请参见报告尾页 期市有风险，投资需谨慎 此报告版权属于国投期货有限公司 3 各项声明请参见报告尾页 期市有风险，投资需谨慎 此报告版权属于国投期货有限公司 4 各项声明请参见报告尾页 期市有风险，投资需谨慎 此报告版权属于国投期货有限公司 5 各项声明请参见报告尾页 期市有风险，投资需谨慎 此报告版权属于国投期货有限公司 6 各项声明请参见报告尾页 期市有风险，投资需谨慎 此报告版权属于国投期货有限公司 7 各项声明请参见报告尾页 期市有风险，投资需谨慎 此报告版权属于国投期货有限公司 8 各项声明请参见报告尾页 期市有风险，投资需谨慎 此报告版权属于国投期货有限公司 9 各项声明请参见报告尾页 期市有风险，投资需谨慎 此报告版权属于国投期货有限公司 10 各项声明请参见报告尾页 期市有风险，投资需谨慎 ...

Group 1: Core View - Traditional factors in the current market, such as volume - price factors based on trading volume and price data and fundamental factors based on economic data, are facing the risk of ineffectiveness. In the context of high strategy crowding and over - mining of big data, alternative factors are becoming new and important aids in describing price expectations [1] - The report focuses on sentiment factors with a wide range of applications among alternative data. By refining, processing, and analyzing text information from news, media, and research reports, it can not only depict the current market heat and sentiment but also quantitatively grasp the strength and weakness of sectors and varieties [1] Group 2: Specific Content - The formula for the emotional intensity in the futures market is: Emotional intensity = Σ (Relevance of news/reports to futures varieties × Emotional score of news/reports) [2] Group 3: Report Information - The report data is as of May 9, 2025 [4] - The senior analyst of Guotou Futures is Wang Kai with the futures investment consulting license number Z0016943, and the analyst is Zhang Jingjie with the futures practice qualification number F03116832 [4]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - Trade war pressure eases, but supply - side uncertainties remain, and the oil price is in a high - volatility shock stage, suggesting a wait - and - see approach [2] - The medium - to - long - term upward trend of gold prices is supported, but in the short term, it fluctuates frequently at historical highs, waiting for a callback to layout [3] - For various commodities, different trading strategies are proposed based on supply, demand, and inventory conditions, and attention should be paid to market news and policy changes [2][3][4] Summary by Commodity Categories Energy - **Crude Oil**: The overnight international oil price rebounded, with the Brent 07 contract rising 3.56%. Trade war pressure eases, but OPEC + rapid production increase pressure still exists. The oil price is in a high - volatility shock stage, and it's advisable to wait and see [2] - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: LU performs stronger than FU. OPEC + over - production in June is negative for high - sulfur fuel oil, while the low - sulfur fuel oil market has marginal improvement, but the sustainability of its strength needs to be observed [21] - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas**: The overseas PG market is supported by good chemical demand, but the domestic market is under pressure. The overall market maintains a volatile trend [23] - **Natural Gas**: No relevant content provided. Metals - **Precious Metals**: The overnight precious metals continued to adjust. The medium - to - long - term upward trend of gold prices is supported, but in the short term, it fluctuates frequently at historical highs, waiting for a callback to layout [3] - **Base Metals** - **Copper**: The overnight copper price fluctuated and closed up. The back spread of Shanghai copper near - month contracts widened. It is recommended to short - allocate the 2507 contract or participate in the positive spread trading of near - month contracts [4] - **Aluminum**: The overnight Shanghai aluminum fluctuated narrowly. The inventory is at a low level in recent years, but the demand is under pressure. It is temporarily treated as a weak shock [5] - **Zinc**: The zinc spot import window is open, and the demand is expected to weaken. The previous high - level short positions of Shanghai zinc can be held [7] - **Lead**: The lead price is supported by production reduction and raw material supply tightness. It is expected to oscillate in the range of 16,300 - 17,000 yuan/ton [8] - **Nickel & Stainless Steel**: The supply of nickel increases, and the inventory of nickel iron increases. Shanghai nickel is at the end of a rebound, and short positions are maturing [9] - **Tin**: The tin price is expected to oscillate in May, and short positions can be held against 265,000 yuan [10] - **Alumina**: The production of alumina is temporarily reduced, but the over - supply prospect limits the rebound height of the futures price. Consider short - selling when the futures price is at a premium [6] - **Ferrous Metals** - **Iron Ore**: The supply is normal, and the demand is under pressure. It is expected to oscillate weakly, and attention should be paid to the pressure of the decline of hot metal output [15] - **Coke**: The price is weak, the second round of price increase is rejected, and the inventory is high. Attention should be paid to the evolution of steel exports [16] - **Coking Coal**: The price rebounds and then weakens. The supply is stable, the inventory is high, and it is expected to oscillate weakly [17] - **Manganese Silicon**: The price rebounds, the manganese ore inventory increases, and it is recommended to short - sell on rebounds [18] - **Silicon Iron**: The price rebounds slightly, the demand declines marginally, the inventory accumulates, and it is recommended to short - sell on rebounds [19] - **Rebar & Hot - Rolled Coil**: The night - session steel price falls. The terminal demand is weak, the supply pressure increases, and the market is pessimistic about the demand. Attention should be paid to the terminal demand and policies [14] Chemicals - **Polypropylene & Plastic**: After the holiday, the inventory accumulates, the supply is loose, and the market trading is light [25] - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: PVC accumulates inventory, the price is weak, and it is expected to oscillate at a low level. The caustic soda price weakens, and there is no driving force for long - positions [26] - **PX & PTA**: The night - session oil price rebounds, providing cost support. PTA's inventory decreases, but there are risks in the medium - term [27] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The supply - demand situation may improve, but there are uncertainties [28] - **Short - Fiber & Bottle Chip**: The short - fiber price rebounds due to cost support, and the bottle - chip is in the peak season, but the processing margin oscillates at a low level [29] - **Benzene Ethylene**: The supply increases slightly, the demand is weak, and the market sentiment is not good [24] - **Asphalt**: The international oil price rebounds, the overall asphalt inventory increases slightly, and the subsequent strengthening space of the crack spread is limited [22] Agricultural Products - **Grains & Oils** - **Soybean & Soybean Meal**: Pay attention to the Sino - US economic and trade talks. The soybean arrival volume from May to July is large, and there is pressure on the spot and basis [33] - **Soybean Oil & Palm Oil**: The cottonseed oil rebounds. The Malaysian palm oil may accumulate inventory in April. The soybean arrival volume from May to July is large, and the palm oil is in the production - increasing period [34] - **Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil**: Pay attention to the Sino - US economic and trade talks and the soybean import situation. The rapeseed futures trend needs to be guided by soybean meal, and the market oscillates weakly [35] - **Soybean No.1**: The soybean futures price gives back the gains. Pay attention to the Sino - US economic and trade talks and policy - end transactions [36] - **Corn**: The corn futures price oscillates at a high level. The market has differences on the future trend, and it is recommended to wait and see [37] - **Livestock & Poultry** - **Pig**: The pig futures price oscillates weakly. The supply is expected to increase in the future, and attention should be paid to the decline space of the spot price [38] - **Egg**: The near - month egg price weakens, and the far - month rebounds slightly. The egg production capacity is expected to increase, and the price is expected to be weak in the long - term [39] - **Cash Crops** - **Cotton**: The US cotton export sales decline, and the domestic demand is in the off - season. The Zhengzhou cotton price oscillates, and it is recommended to wait and see [40] - **Sugar**: The US sugar oscillates. The Brazilian sugar production is expected to be high, and the domestic sugar price is expected to oscillate [40] - **Apple**: The apple futures price oscillates. The spot demand is good, but the apple production may be lower than expected [41] - **Wood**: The wood futures price runs weakly. The supply pressure decreases, the demand enters the off - season, and it is recommended to wait and see [42] - **Paper Pulp**: The paper pulp price rebounds slightly, the inventory decreases, but the market confidence is not good, and it is recommended to wait and see [43] Others - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: The supply pressure is the core contradiction. The market is in a game between sentiment fluctuations and over - supply. The Red Sea shipping interruption may last all year [20] Financial Products - **Stock Index**: The A - share market rises in a shrinking volume, and the futures index contracts rise. The Sino - US and US - UK trade negotiations affect the market, and attention should be paid to the policy impact on the market structure [44] - **Treasury Bond**: The treasury bond futures price oscillates and falls. The bond market's "technology board" is accelerating. The short - term over - decline repair is almost completed, and attention should be paid to the curve steepening opportunity [45]

【苹果】 期价震荡。现货方面,主流报价持稳。假期期间市场需求较好,节后补库需求增加,现货价格继续上涨。目前冷库库存较低, 市场需求的好,预计后期现货价格仍有上涨空间。从盘面来看,市场的交易重心特向新率度的估产。虽然今年西部产区花量较 足,但是受高温和花期大风的影响,坐果率偏低,可能导致苹果产登低于预期。不过,市场对产量预期仍有分歧,关注后续估 产情况,操作上暂时观望。 本报告版权属于国投期货有限公司 | | | | >国技期货 Million | | 敏商品日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年05月08日 | | 棉花 | ななな | 曹凯 首席分析师 | | 纸浆 | ★☆★ | F03095462 Z0017365 | | 白糖 | ななな | 胡华轩 高级分析师 | | 苹果 | ななな | F0285606 Z0003096 | | 木材 | ★☆☆ | | | 20号胶 | ☆☆☆ | 黄维 高级分析师 | | 天然橡胶 | ななな | F03096483 Z0017474 | | 丁二烯橡胶 ★☆☆ | | | | | | 010-58747784 | ...

铁矿今日盘面大幅走弱。供应端,铁矿全球发运工常波动,国内到港量商位小幅回落，港口库存保持黑库。需求端,钢厂盈利 率处于相对商位,铁水产量预计新能维持偏高水平,不过本周钢材表需数据回落福度较大,叠加祖匈限产预期依然存在,市场 对于未来负反情的担忧有所加剧。外部贸易摩擦有绕和垃圾,但贸易谈判过程依格存在不确定性。我们预计铁矿走势偏弱腐 荡,需要注意铁水见顶回落的压力。 【焦炭】 | | | | VV SDIC FUTURES | | 2025年05月08日 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | | | 螺纹 | ★☆☆ | 曹颖 首席分析师 | | 热轧卷板 | ★☆☆ | F3003925 Z0012043 | | 铁矿 | ★☆★ | 何建辉 高级分析师 | | 焦炭 | ★☆★ | F0242190 Z0000586 | | 焦煤 | ★☆★ | | | 锰硅 | ★☆★ | 韩惊 高级分析师 | | 硅铁 | ★☆★ | F03086835 Z0016553 | | | | 李啸尘 高级分析师 | | | | F3054140 Z0016022 | | | | 010-5874 ...