Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report presents the average prices and price changes of various non - ferrous metals and related products, including electrolytic copper, aluminum, alumina, lead, zinc, tin, nickel, silicon, and lithium carbonate, along with their spot - futures spreads and changes [1]. 3. Summary by Metal Category Copper - SMM 1 electrolytic copper average price is 85335, down 1255; SMM flat - water copper premium is - 5, up 40 [1]. Aluminum - SMM A00 aluminum average price is 21300, down 140; SMM A00 aluminum premium is - 20, down 10. Alumina (Shanxi) average price is 2840, unchanged; Australian alumina FOB average price is 318 dollars, unchanged [1]. Lead - SMM 1 lead ingot average price is 17325, up 75; SMM 1 lead ingot premium to the current - month futures at 10:15 is - 125, up 45. Recycled refined lead average price is 17275, up 100; refined - scrap spread is 50, down 25 [1]. Zinc - SMM 0 zinc ingot premium to the current - month futures at 10:15 has a change of 20, while the average price data is not fully shown [1]. Tin - SMM 1 tin average price is 281300, down 4100; SMM 1 tin premium to the current - month futures at 10:15 is 520, up 150. 40% tin concentrate (Yunnan) average price is 269300, down 4100; the ratio of 40% tin concentrate (Yunnan) to SMM 1 tin is 95.73% [1]. Nickel - 1 imported nickel average price is 119950, down 1000; 1 imported nickel premium to Shanghai nickel contract is 400, unchanged. SMM electrowon nickel average price is 119650, down 950; SMM electrowon nickel premium is 100, up 50. 1 Jinchuan nickel average price is 122350, down 800; 1 Jinchuan nickel premium to Shanghai nickel contract is 2800, up 200 [1]. Silicon - The average price of a certain silicon - related product is 9050, unchanged; its premium is 1490, up 190 [1]. Polysilicon - N - type polysilicon re - feedstock average price is 80500, down 400; N - type polysilicon dense material average price is 3320, up 1140 [1]. Lithium Carbonate - Industrial - grade lithium carbonate average price is 78300, the difference between electric - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 2200, unchanged. Battery - grade lithium carbonate average price data is not fully shown; battery - grade lithium carbonate premium to the current - month futures at 10:15 has a change, but the specific price data is not fully shown [1].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread steel: Not clearly defined in the given star rating description [1] - Hot-rolled coil: ☆☆☆, indicating a relatively clear bearish trend with current appropriate short - selling opportunities [1] - Iron ore: ★☆★, suggesting a certain bullish drive but with poor operability on the trading floor [1] - Coke: ★☆☆, meaning a slightly bullish bias but with poor operability [1] - Coking coal: ★☆☆, a slightly bullish bias but poor operability [1] - Silicon manganese: ★☆★, a certain bullish drive but poor operability [1] - Ferrosilicon: ★☆★, a certain bullish drive but poor operability [1] Core Views - The steel market is under short - term pressure due to weak demand expectations and low market sentiment. The iron ore market is expected to be in a high - level weak oscillation. The coke and coking coal markets are showing a bullish oscillation, while the silicon manganese and ferrosilicon markets are likely to have narrow - range oscillations [2][3][4] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - The thread steel's apparent demand faces downward pressure in the off - season, with production at a relatively low level and inventory continuing to decline. The hot - rolled coil's demand has declined, production is still high, and the de - stocking trend has slowed. The iron - making water production has dropped from a high level, and the downstream's carrying capacity is insufficient. The overall domestic demand is weak, and steel exports remain high. The market is short - term pressured, and attention should be paid to the support at the lower edge of the oscillation range and marginal changes in demand [2] Iron Ore - The global shipment of iron ore is at a high level in the same period, and the domestic arrival volume has increased significantly to a new high this year, with port inventory showing a cumulative trend. The iron - making water production has continuously declined from a high level, and the steel mills' profitability has shrunk. After the macro - level positive news is implemented, the market shows a tendency to cash in on the positive, and the market is starting to trade the reality of a marginally looser iron ore supply. It is expected to oscillate weakly at a high level [3] Coke - The coke price oscillated strongly during the day. There is an expectation of a third price increase. The coking profit is average, and the daily production has slightly decreased. The coke inventory has hardly changed, with downstream customers making small - scale on - demand purchases and inventory slightly increasing. The carbon element supply is abundant, and the high - level iron - making water production supports the raw materials, but the steel mills have a strong desire to lower the raw material prices. The coke futures are at a premium, and attention should be paid to the safety production assessment information in the main coking coal production areas [4] Coking Coal - The coking coal price oscillated strongly during the day. Although the price dropped rapidly due to the resumption of production of a small number of coal mines in the Wuhai production area after meeting environmental protection standards, many coal mines facing resource integration have not resumed production, so the price is unlikely to continue to decline. The coking coal production has slightly increased, the spot auction transactions have improved, and the terminal inventory has increased. The total coking coal inventory has slightly increased, and the production - end inventory has slightly decreased. Attention should be paid to the impact of safety inspections in the main coal - producing areas. The carbon element supply is abundant, and the high - level iron - making water production supports the raw materials, but the steel mills have a strong desire to lower the raw material prices. The coking coal futures are at a discount to Mongolian coal, and attention should be paid to the safety production assessment information in the main coking coal production areas [6] Silicon Manganese - The silicon manganese price oscillated strongly during the day. The iron - making water production remains at a high level above 236. The weekly production of silicon manganese has slightly declined but remains at a high level, and the inventory has slightly decreased. The forward quotation of manganese ore has slightly increased, and the spot ore has been boosted by the trading floor. The manganese ore inventory has slightly decreased, and the contradiction is not prominent. The price is likely to oscillate in a narrow range [7] Ferrosilicon - The ferrosilicon price oscillated strongly during the day. The iron - making water production remains at a high level above 236. The export demand has risen to about 40,000 tons, with a marginal impact. The metal magnesium production has slightly increased, and the secondary demand has marginally increased. The overall demand is acceptable. The ferrosilicon supply remains at a high level, and the on - balance - sheet inventory is continuously decreasing. The price is likely to oscillate in a narrow range [8]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: ★☆☆ (One star, representing a bullish/bearish bias, with a driving force for price increase/decrease, but limited operability on the trading floor) [1] - Pulp: ★★★ (Three stars, indicating a clearer bullish/bearish trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently) [1] - Sugar: ★★★ (Three stars, indicating a clearer bullish/bearish trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently) [1] - Apple: ★☆☆ (One star, representing a bullish/bearish bias, with a driving force for price increase/decrease, but limited operability on the trading floor) [1] - Timber: ☆☆☆ (White stars, suggesting a relatively balanced short - term bullish/bearish trend and poor operability on the trading floor, with a recommendation to wait and see) [1] - 20 - rubber: ★★★ (Three stars, indicating a clearer bullish/bearish trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently) [1] - Natural Rubber: ★★★ (Three stars, indicating a clearer bullish/bearish trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently) [1] - Butadiene Rubber: ☆☆☆ (White stars, suggesting a relatively balanced short - term bullish/bearish trend and poor operability on the trading floor, with a recommendation to wait and see) [1] Core Views - The report analyzes the market conditions of various soft commodities including cotton, sugar, apple, rubber, pulp, and timber, and provides corresponding investment suggestions based on supply - demand relationships, price trends, and policy factors. Overall, it presents a cautious attitude towards the short - term market of these commodities, with many recommendations to wait and see [2][3][4][6][7][8] Summary by Commodity Cotton - Zhengzhou cotton rose today, with the mainstream sales basis of cotton spot remaining stable. As of November 1st, the cumulative national cotton inspection volume was 1.844 million tons. Domestic spot trading was average, downstream pure cotton yarn followed the price increase weakly, and the market was dull. China may reduce additional tariffs on US cotton imports, and Zhengzhou cotton may fluctuate in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see [2] Sugar - Overnight, US sugar continued to decline. In Brazil, although the sugarcane crushing volume and sugar yield decreased, the sugar - making ratio increased, maintaining high sugar production. In the Northern Hemisphere, India and Thailand are about to start crushing, and sugar production is expected to increase year - on - year. In China, Zhengzhou sugar is running weakly, and there are rumors of syrup import control, which provides some support. The market's trading focus has shifted to the next season's production estimate. It is expected that sugar prices will remain weak [3] Apple - The futures price continued to correct. The price of high - quality apples was stable, while that of low - quality apples was weak. The market's trading logic has shifted from cold - storage inventory to sales expectations. There is uncertainty in the initial cold - storage inventory, and the high price and poor quality of apples may lead to slow inventory removal. Apple prices are high, and there may be inventory pressure later. A bearish trading strategy is recommended [4] Rubber (20 - rubber, Natural Rubber, Synthetic Rubber) - Today, RU&NR fluctuated weakly, and BR first declined and then rose. The domestic natural rubber spot price was stable with a slight decline, and the synthetic rubber spot price was stable. The global natural rubber supply has entered the high - yield period, but the Yunnan region in China will enter the low - yield period. The domestic tire operating rate continued to rise slightly, and the inventory increased. The demand is slowly recovering, the supply pressure is easing, and the cost support is weak. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to cross - variety arbitrage opportunities [6] Pulp - Today, the pulp futures continued to rise, and the spot prices were stable. As of October 30, 2025, the mainstream imported pulp inventory in China was 2.061 million tons, a 0.3% increase from the previous period. In September, China imported 2.9525 million tons of pulp, a year - on - year increase of 272,500 tons. The domestic port inventory is relatively high, the supply is relatively loose, and the demand is average. It is recommended to wait and see or conduct short - term operations [7] Timber - The futures price was weak, and the spot price was stable. In November, the price of New Zealand radiata pine continued to rise, and the domestic spot price was weak. Traders' import willingness decreased, and the domestic supply is expected to remain low. The export volume is above 60,000 cubic meters, and the demand supports the price. The inventory is low, and it is recommended to wait and see [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The market is influenced by multiple factors such as the US government shutdown, supply - demand dynamics, and policy uncertainties across different commodities [2][3]. - Most commodities are expected to show various trends including oscillations, declines, or limited upward movements in the short - to - medium term [2][3][4]. 3. Summary by Commodity Categories Energy - **Crude Oil**: International oil prices fell overnight. US government shutdown and API inventory increase added pressure, with medium - term supply - demand surplus weighing on prices [2]. - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Fuel oil followed crude oil down. Low - sulfur supply pressure may ease marginally, while high - sulfur supply is expected to be more abundant in the medium term, and the high - low sulfur crack spread may widen further [22]. - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG)**: Weekly LPG production declined. Demand improved but was offset by weakening cost support from oil prices, causing LPG to fall [24]. - **Natural Gas**: Not mentioned in the report. - **Coal**: Not mentioned in the report. - **Nuclear Energy**: Not mentioned in the report. - **Renewable Energy**: - **Polysilicon**: Futures dropped. Supply pressure increased with rising inventory, and the market may enter a short - term consolidation phase [14]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Futures fell due to polysilicon market sentiment. It's in a supply - demand dual - weak pattern, with limited upside [13]. Metals - **Precious Metals**: Precious metals declined overnight. With the US government shutdown and data issues, they are in a high - level oscillation, and it's advisable to wait and see [3]. - **Base Metals**: - **Copper**: Copper prices dropped overnight. New supply - loss or demand signals are needed after hitting record highs, and it's recommended to observe [4]. - **Aluminum**: Shanghai aluminum fell. Domestic inventory and consumption were average, and the upside space is limited [5]. - **Zinc**: LME zinc inventory supported overseas premiums, and falling TC supported domestic prices. After the consumption peak, zinc prices may find support around 22,200 yuan/ton [8]. - **Lead**: Lead prices oscillated narrowly. Consumption may weaken, but cost and low inventory provided support, with a short - term range of 17,300 - 17,500 yuan/ton [9]. - **Nickel & Stainless Steel**: Nickel prices were weak. Downstream demand was soft, and nickel may continue to be affected by upstream price trends [10]. - **Tin**: Tin prices oscillated. If it breaks below the MA20, short - selling may be considered as prices may fall to October lows [11]. - **Zinc**: LME zinc inventory at a low level supported overseas premiums, and falling TC propped up domestic prices. After the consumption peak, zinc prices may find support around 22,200 yuan/ton [8]. - **Ferrous Metals**: - **Iron Ore**: Prices weakened. Supply was high, and demand may decline further in the off - season. It's expected to oscillate weakly at a high level [16]. - **Coke**: Prices dropped. There's a third - round price increase expectation, but steel mills' low profits limit upside, and it's necessary to monitor safety inspections [17]. - **Coking Coal**: Prices declined. Although some mines resumed production, prices may not fall continuously. It's important to watch safety inspections [18]. - **Silicon Manganese**: Prices oscillated. High iron - water production supported demand, and prices are likely to oscillate narrowly [19]. - **Silicon Iron**: Prices oscillated. Demand was fair, and prices are expected to oscillate within a narrow range [20]. - **Rebar & Hot - Rolled Coil**: Steel prices fell. Demand was weak, and the market may oscillate at a low level, with attention on environmental restrictions and demand changes [15]. Chemicals - **Alkali Chemicals**: - **Soda Ash**: Prices were weak. Supply increased, and demand may decrease, and it's advisable to watch the long - glass short - soda strategy [36]. - **Caustic Soda**: Prices continued to fall. Profit margins were squeezed, and demand was weak, with potential for a rebound if chlorine prices keep dropping [30]. - **Organic Chemicals**: - **Methanol**: Prices stabilized. High imports and inventory, along with weak downstream demand, may keep prices under pressure [26]. - **Pure Benzene**: Prices were weak. Port inventory increased, and there are mid - term supply - demand concerns, with a focus on port inventory build - up [27]. - **Styrene**: Prices were under pressure. Supply decreased slightly, but high inventory persisted, and demand was stable [28]. - **Polypropylene, Plastic & Propylene**: Propylene may see price support, while polyethylene supply increased and demand weakened, and polypropylene faces supply pressure and limited demand [29]. - **PVC**: Prices were low. Supply may increase, and demand declined, with cost support being weak [30]. - **PX & PTA**: Prices moved down. Supply increased, and there's a risk of inventory build - up, with a focus on oil price fluctuations [31]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Prices fell. Supply pressure increased, and inventory is expected to rise, with a focus on potential plant shutdowns [32]. - **Fertilizers**: - **Urea**: Prices oscillated strongly. Demand increased, and inventory decreased, but oversupply persists, and prices may oscillate within a range [25]. - **Ammonia**: Not mentioned in the report. - **Phosphate Fertilizers**: Not mentioned in the report. - **Potash Fertilizers**: Not mentioned in the report. Building Materials - **Glass**: Prices oscillated strongly. Supply changes and cost increases supported prices, and it's advisable to hold short - put options [34]. - **Cement**: Not mentioned in the report. Agricultural Products - **Grains & Oilseeds**: - **Soybeans & Soybean Meal**: Prices oscillated weakly. US - China trade relations are key, and domestic supply is sufficient. Look for buying opportunities on dips [37]. - **Soybean Oil & Palm Oil**: Palm oil may face a decline due to high supply, while soybean oil is affected by biodiesel policies [38]. - **Rapeseed & Rapeseed Oil**: The market is influenced by trade relations. Rapeseed meal can be short - term long, and rapeseed oil may be relatively weak [39]. - **Corn**: Prices were strong. Supply is abundant, and the market may remain weak at the bottom, with attention on US - China trade policies [41]. - **Livestock & Poultry**: - **Pigs**: Futures prices oscillated at a low level. Supply pressure is high, and a second - bottom in prices is likely next year [42]. - **Chickens**: Not mentioned in the report. - **Eggs**: Prices oscillated. Supply may improve in the long - term, and look for short - selling opportunities in the fourth quarter [43]. - **Cash Crops**: - **Cotton**: Prices oscillated. US - China trade and domestic demand are key factors, and it's advisable to wait and see [44]. - **Sugar**: Prices fell. International supply is abundant, and domestic production expectations are good, with attention on weather [45]. - **Fruits**: - **Apples**: Prices dropped. High - quality apples are scarce, and inventory pressure is a concern, with a bearish view [46]. - **Timber & Pulp**: - **Timber**: Prices were weak. Low inventory supports prices, and it's advisable to wait and see [47]. - **Pulp**: Prices fell slightly. Supply is abundant, and demand is weak in the short - term, with a possible improvement in the medium - term [48]. Others - **Shipping**: The Container Freight Index (Europe Line) may stabilize and rise slightly, but further upside is limited without new drivers [21]. - **Financial Products**: - **Stock Index**: A - shares fell, and the market is expected to oscillate, with a focus on the technology growth sector [49].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The report provides weekly views on various non - ferrous metals, analyzing their supply, demand, price trends, and investment opportunities, with different outlooks for each metal [1] Group 3: Summary by Metal Copper - **Supply**: Domestic supply is weak, with low tin ore processing fees and potential decline in copper exports from Peru to China in January. Overseas, Indonesia issued a 400,000 - ton copper concentrate export permit to Oman Mining. The mine may release some concentrate inventory in the short term [1] - **Demand**: Traditional consumption has limited price - setting demand under high - price pressure, but the spot - end adaptability has improved. The social inventory in China has increased to over 200,000 tons [1] - **Price and Trend**: Copper prices reaching new highs are supported by supply - demand fundamentals and high capital allocation interest. However, there is a risk of correction after reaching new highs due to concerns about high - price - suppressed consumption. Pay attention to the support of the 20 - day moving average [1] Aluminum and Alumina - **Supply**: Overseas bauxite trading is inactive. The operating capacity of domestic alumina is 9.0757 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 90,000 tons. The supply of alumina is in significant surplus [1] - **Demand**: The weekly average operating rate of domestic electrolytic aluminum downstream processing enterprises is 62.2%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.2% [1] - **Inventory and Price**: The social inventory of aluminum ingots increased by 100 tons to 627,000 tons, and that of aluminum rods decreased by 800 tons to 138,000 tons. The spot premium and discount in different regions have limited changes [1] - **Trend**: The market is mainly driven by macro factors, with a slightly stronger and volatile trend. There is a possibility of hitting the high point in November 2024, but be cautious about the upward space [1] Zinc - **Supply**: LME zinc inventory decreased to 35,300 tons. Domestic smelters have high smelting profits and are actively operating. The accident at the Australian Endeavor zinc - lead mine led to a significant decrease in domestic and overseas TC. Domestic zinc ingots are gradually being exported, and inventory may further decline [1] - **Demand**: The consumption in October was not strong. In November, demand has recovered slightly, but overall, there is an expectation of weakening consumption due to cold weather. The export data may be expected to improve [1] - **Trend**: The bottom support of Shanghai zinc is strong. Do not short - sell in the fourth quarter. The rebound high is in the range of 23,000 - 23,500 yuan/ton. Pay attention to cross - market reverse arbitrage opportunities [1] Lead - **Supply**: LME lead inventory decreased to 235,100 tons, and the proportion of cancelled warrants is as high as 67.5%. The domestic social inventory of lead decreased to 30,300 tons. The supply pressure is gradually increasing [1] - **Demand**: The demand for energy storage and data centers has exploded, and the orders for battery enterprises related to energy storage are stable. However, after the strong rise of Shanghai lead, the battery export prospects are not good [1] - **Trend**: The fundamentals are expected to weaken. Be vigilant about long - positions leaving at high prices. Track overseas inventory changes. The upward space of lead in the fourth quarter is restricted [1] Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Supply**: The inventory of pure nickel decreased by 700 tons to 48,800 tons, the inventory of nickel iron increased by 500 tons to 29,000 tons, and the inventory of stainless steel increased by 400 tons to 947,000 tons [1] - **Demand**: The stainless steel market confidence has been hit, and the downstream demand is weak [1] - **Trend**: The nickel market is in a weak operation, and the center of gravity tends to move down. Consider short - selling on rallies or right - side trading [1] Tin - **Supply**: Non - Chinese tin exports are affected by the rainy season and the closure of Dar es Salaam Port. The supply of domestic tin concentrate is substantially tight [1] - **Demand**: The demand in traditional fields is average. In October, there was some rigid - demand price - setting [1] - **Trend**: Tin prices are oscillating without a clear direction. Consider short - selling on rallies or right - side trading after a clear breakout [1] Lithium Carbonate - **Supply**: The total market inventory decreased by 3,000 tons to 127,000 tons. The inventory of smelters decreased by 1,600 tons to 32,000 tons, and the downstream inventory decreased by 2,000 tons to 53,000 tons [1] - **Demand**: The leading material factories are at full - production or over - production levels. The pure electric vehicle project is advancing, and the demand for energy - storage batteries is in short supply [1] - **Trend**: The futures price of lithium carbonate is strengthening, and the inventory is expected to increase. The market focuses on the sustainability of actual inventory reduction and policy increments. It is expected to be slightly stronger and volatile in the short term [1] Industrial Silicon - **Supply**: The supply side has a slowdown in the start - up rate in Xinjiang, and the start - up rates in Yunnan and Sichuan have decreased to below 54% due to the dry season. The production of polysilicon has decreased seasonally, and the overhauled organic silicon devices are gradually resuming production [1] - **Demand**: The demand for polysilicon has seasonal production reduction [1] - **Inventory**: The social inventory of industrial silicon is 558,000 tons, a weekly decrease of 1,000 tons [1] - **Trend**: The supply and demand are both weak. The disk is expected to remain firm, but the upward space is restricted by the uncertainty of polysilicon demand [1] Polysilicon - **Supply**: The output in October is expected to increase by 4,000 tons month - on - month. There are expectations of production reduction in the southwest dry season and a contraction in downstream wafer start - up [1] - **Demand**: The market is affected by policy expectations and fundamental realities. The demand is affected by the photovoltaic industry's performance improvement and policy expectations [1] - **Inventory**: The factory inventory has continued to increase to 261,000 tons, a weekly increase of 3,000 tons [1] - **Trend**: The market is in a game between policy expectations and fundamental realities. It is easy to rise and difficult to fall in the short - term sentiment, but be vigilant about the correction risk caused by policy non - implementation or insufficient spot follow - up [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the proportion of short positions in commodities has rebounded, mainly due to the decline in the factor strength of the black sector and the recovery in the agricultural products sector. Currently, the relatively strong sectors in the cross - section are non - ferrous metals and agricultural products, while the relatively weak ones are black metals and energy [3]. - The comprehensive signal for methanol this week is short, while for iron ore, it has turned to long, and for lead, it remains short, and for glass, it is long [4][13][15]. 3. Summary by Related Content Commodity Sector Analysis - **Black Sector**: The short - cycle momentum has declined. The positions of iron ore and rebar have decreased, indicating a cautious sentiment after the positive news is realized. Coking coal is relatively strong in the cross - section [3]. - **Non - ferrous Sector**: The position factor has marginally recovered, the long - cycle momentum continues to rise. Copper is relatively strong and alumina is relatively weak in the cross - section [3]. - **Energy and Chemical Sector**: The short - cycle momentum cross - section differentiation has expanded, and the chemical sector is at the short end of the cross - section [3]. - **Agricultural Products Sector**: There is a reversal in the cross - section. The short - cycle momentum of soybean oil has marginally decreased, while that of soybean meal has increased, and soybean meal is relatively strong in the short - term cross - section [3]. - **Precious Metals Sector**: The marginal time - series momentum of gold has recovered, the decline in the position of silver is small, and the differentiation at both ends of the cross - section has narrowed [3]. Strategy Net Value and Factor Analysis - **Methanol**: Last week, the supply factor increased by 0.98%, the demand factor decreased by 0.64%, the inventory factor decreased by 0.48%, and the synthetic factor weakened by 0.62%. The comprehensive signal this week is short. In terms of fundamental factors, the supply side is more bearish, the demand side is neutral to bearish, the inventory side is neutral, and the spread side is neutral [3][4]. - **Iron Ore**: Last week, the supply factor increased by 0.49%, the demand factor strengthened by 0.47%, the spread factor decreased by 0.09%, and the synthetic factor strengthened by 0.2%. The comprehensive signal this week is long. The supply side's bullish feedback has weakened, the demand side has turned to bullish feedback, the inventory side has turned to bullish feedback, and the spread side's bullish feedback has weakened [13]. - **Lead**: Last week, the supply factor increased by 0.49%, the demand factor strengthened by 0.47%, the spread factor decreased by 0.09%, and the synthetic factor strengthened by 0.2%. The comprehensive signal this week remains short. The supply side signal remains bearish, the inventory side signal remains neutral, and the spread side signal turns bearish [13]. - **Glass**: Last week, the inventory factor decreased by 0.05%, the spread factor weakened by 0.05%, and the synthetic factor decreased by 0.04%. The comprehensive signal this week is long. The supply side is neutral to bearish, the demand side is bullish, the inventory side remains bearish, and the spread side is bullish [15].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - term trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Aluminum: ★★★ [1] - Alumina: ★★★ [1] - Cast Aluminum Alloy: ★★★ [1] - Zinc: ★★★ [1] - Nickel and Stainless Steel: ★★★ [1] - Tin: ★★★ [1] - Lithium Carbonate: ★★★ [1] - Industrial Silicon: ★★★ [1] - Polysilicon: ★★★ [1] Core Viewpoints - The report analyzes the market conditions of various non - ferrous metals including copper, aluminum, zinc, etc., and provides short - term trend judgments and investment suggestions for each metal [1][2][3] Summary by Metal Copper - The open interest of Shanghai copper futures fell below the MA20 moving average. The US ISM manufacturing PMI has been shrinking for eight consecutive months, and high copper prices in China are suppressing demand. The copper price is expected to continue to correct after short - term high - level fluctuations. Short - term long positions are advised to exit and wait [1] Aluminum, Alumina, and Aluminum Alloy - The price of Shanghai aluminum declined. The social inventory of aluminum ingots increased by 0.80 thousand tons at the beginning of the week. The aluminum market is mainly driven by macro - sentiment, with limited resonance in fundamentals. It is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term. Cast aluminum alloy follows the aluminum price and has no independent market. Alumina has an oversupply situation, with limited rebound space [2] Zinc - The LME zinc inventory continued to decline, supporting the spot premium. The domestic zinc price was also supported by the decline in domestic and foreign TC. After the consumption peak season ended, the long - position funds took profits. The zinc price is expected to find support around 22,200 yuan/ton [3] Nickel and Stainless Steel - The price of Shanghai nickel fluctuated narrowly. The downstream demand was weak. The reduction in production by stainless - steel plants needs further observation. The price of pure nickel inventory decreased, while the inventory of nickel - iron and stainless steel increased. The price of Shanghai nickel is expected to move downward [6] Tin - The price of Shanghai tin fluctuated and closed lower. The domestic tin supply is in a real shortage. It is advisable to short on rallies or wait for a clear breakdown [7] Lithium Carbonate - The price of lithium carbonate fluctuated at a high level. The market supply and demand were strong. The total market inventory decreased. The price of Australian ore strengthened again. It is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [8] Industrial Silicon - The price of industrial silicon futures declined significantly, affected by the polysilicon market sentiment. The supply is shrinking, and the demand is also weakening. The short - term price will fluctuate, with limited upside space [9] Polysilicon - The price of polysilicon futures declined significantly. The inventory of polysilicon manufacturers continued to rise. The market is expected to enter a range - bound consolidation phase in the short term [10]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for precious metals is "★★★", indicating a clearer long - term trend and a relatively appropriate current investment opportunity [1] Core Viewpoints - Overnight, precious metals continued to fluctuate. The US October ISM Manufacturing PMI was 48.7, slightly lower than the expected 49.5 and the previous value of 49.1. With the Fed's internal differences, the US government shutdown, and the possible non - release of this week's non - farm payroll data, the market is waiting for new drivers, and precious metals are building a high - level oscillation platform, suggesting a temporary wait - and - see approach. Regarding silver, as the US dollar index rebounds, market risk appetite has weakened, and the gold - silver ratio may rise again [2] - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points to the 3.75% - 4.00% range last week, the second cut this year. However, Chairman Powell stated that "another rate cut is not a certainty", causing the probability of a December rate cut expected by traders to drop from nearly 100% a week ago to 65.3%, removing the interest - rate decline support for non - interest - bearing gold [2] - The doves advocate significant rate cuts, while the hawks are cautious about further rate cuts due to concerns about inflation and financial market risks. The market is in a "high - level interest - rate" stage, and gold prices face short - term callback risks due to uncertainties such as unclear Fed policies, data vacuum caused by the US government shutdown, and China's end of the gold tax - exemption policy [2][3]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: Neutral (White star) [1] - Pulp: Neutral (White star) [1] - Sugar: Neutral (White star) [1] - Apple: Slightly bearish (One star) [1] - Timber: Neutral (White star) [1] - 20 - rubber: Neutral (White star) [1] - Natural rubber: Bullish (Three stars) [1] - Butadiene rubber: Neutral (White star) [1] Core Views - The short - term trend of Zhengzhou cotton may be volatile, and it is advisable to wait and see for now [2] - Sugar prices are expected to remain weak, and attention should be paid to policy implementation and weather conditions [3] - Apple prices are high with insufficient bullish factors, and attention should be paid to the storage situation [4] - The rubber market sentiment is pessimistic, and it is advisable to wait and see while paying attention to cross - variety arbitrage opportunities [6] - The short - term fundamentals of pulp are weak, and mid - term conditions may improve; it is advisable to wait and see or conduct short - term operations [7] - Low inventory provides some support for log prices, and it is advisable to wait and see [8] Summary by Categories Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zhengzhou cotton declined today, and the spot sales basis of cotton remained stable. As of November 1, the cumulative national cotton inspection volume was 1.844 million tons. The spot trading was mediocre, and the downstream pure - cotton yarn followed the price increase weakly. The trading in the general cotton yarn market became dull. It is recommended to wait and see for now [2] Sugar - Overnight, US sugar fluctuated. In Brazil, the production data in the first half of October was neutral. In China, Zhengzhou sugar was relatively strong. There are expectations of syrup import control policies, and the market's trading focus has shifted to the next season's production estimate. Sugar prices are expected to remain weak [3] Apple - The futures price dropped significantly. The market's trading logic has shifted from cold - storage inventory volume to sales expectations. The inventory progress in Shandong is slow, and the initial cold - storage inventory of apples in the new season is uncertain. The high price and poor quality of apples this year may affect the destocking speed. It is recommended to wait and see [4] 20 - rubber, Natural rubber & Synthetic rubber - Today, RU, NR, and BR all declined. The domestic natural rubber spot price rose steadily, while the synthetic rubber spot price continued to fall. The global natural rubber supply has entered the high - yield period, and the domestic butadiene rubber plant operating rate declined significantly last week. The domestic tire operating rate increased slightly, and the finished - product inventory of tire enterprises continued to increase. Rubber inventory has increased, and it is recommended to wait and see while paying attention to cross - variety arbitrage opportunities [6] Pulp - Today, pulp futures declined slightly, and the spot prices remained stable. As of October 30, 2025, the mainstream import sample inventory of Chinese pulp was 2.061 million tons, a cumulative increase of 6,000 tons from the previous period. The domestic pulp import volume in September increased year - on - year. The short - term fundamentals are weak, and mid - term conditions may improve. It is advisable to wait and see or conduct short - term operations [7] Log - The futures price was weak. The supply of logs is expected to remain low in the short term, and the demand provides some support for prices. The total log inventory is low, and it is recommended to wait and see [8]

Report Overview - Report Title: Commodity Quantitative CTA Weekly Tracking [1] - Report Date: November 4, 2025 [2] - Report Author: Guotou Futures Research Institute, Financial Engineering Group [2] Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - This week, the proportion of short positions in commodities has rebounded, mainly due to the decline in the factor strength of the black sector and the rebound in agricultural products. Currently, the sectors with relatively strong cross - section are non - ferrous metals and agricultural products, while the relatively weak ones are black and energy sectors [3]. - The short - term momentum of the black sector has declined, with a decrease in the positions of iron ore and rebar, indicating a more cautious sentiment after the realization of positive factors [3]. - The cross - section of agricultural products has reversed, with the short - term momentum of soybean oil slightly decreasing and that of soybean meal increasing, and soybean meal is relatively strong in the short - term cross - section [3]. Summary by Related Content Commodity Market Conditions - **Sector Performance**: The cross - section of non - ferrous and agricultural sectors is strong, while the black and energy sectors are weak. Gold's time - series momentum has marginally rebounded, and the decline in silver's positions is small. In the non - ferrous sector, the position factor has marginally rebounded, and the long - term momentum continues to rise, with copper being strong and alumina being weak. In the black sector, coking coal is relatively strong in the cross - section. The short - term momentum cross - section of the energy - chemical sector has expanded, and the chemical sector is on the short side of the cross - section [3]. - **Factor Performance**: The supply factor increased by 0.98% last week, the demand factor decreased by 0.64%, the inventory factor decreased by 0.48%, and the synthetic factor weakened by 0.62%. This week, the comprehensive signal is short [4]. Specific Commodity Analysis Methanol - **Strategy Net Value**: Last week, the inventory factor decreased by 0.05%, the spread factor weakened by 0.05%, and the synthetic factor decreased by 0.04%. This week, the comprehensive signal is long [15]. - **Fundamental Factors**: The supply side is neutral to short, the demand side is long, the inventory side is short, and the spread side is long [15]. Iron Ore - **Strategy Net Value**: The supply factor increased by 0.49%, the demand factor strengthened by 0.47%, the spread factor decreased by 0.09%, and the synthetic factor strengthened by 0.2%. This week, the comprehensive signal remains short [13]. - **Fundamental Factors**: The supply side signal remains long, the demand side signal turns neutral, the inventory side signal remains neutral, and the spread side signal remains neutral [13]. Glass - **Strategy Net Value**: The supply factor increased slightly, the demand factor is long, the inventory factor is short, and the spread factor is long. This week, the comprehensive signal is long [15]. - **Fundamental Factors**: The supply side is neutral to short, the demand side is long, the inventory side is short, and the spread side is long [15].