Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - The report analyzes the market trends of various commodities and financial products, including energy, metals, agricultural products, and financial derivatives. It points out that most commodities are in a state of price fluctuation and supply - demand adjustment, with many facing uncertain factors such as geopolitical risks, policy changes, and seasonal demand variations. Commodity Summaries Energy - **Crude Oil**: International oil prices fluctuated last week. Geopolitical risks around Russia and Venezuela supported prices, but the Russian port's resumption of loading reduced the impact. There is a risk of price decline in the medium - term due to increasing supply - demand pressure in Q4 and Q1 next year. Attention should be paid to the impact of Russian oil sanctions and the release of Venezuelan risks [2]. - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The absolute price of fuel oil is still suppressed by the cost side. High - sulfur fuel oil is supported by short - term export decline but may face a more relaxed supply pattern in the medium - term. Low - sulfur fuel oil's fundamentals have improved due to factors such as unstable overseas refinery operations and strong demand in the fourth - quarter shipping season [20]. - **Asphalt**: The poor shipment volume has falsified the "14th Five - Year Plan" end - of - year rush - work demand expectation, and the demand is weaker than last year. The inventory de - stocking is slowing down, and the fundamentals are bearish in the long - term [21]. - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG)**: Import supply is tight. The improvement of butane dehydrogenation device profitability and cold weather have increased demand, leading to a decline in refinery and port storage rates. LPG is expected to be in a slightly strong upward trend [22]. Metals - **Precious Metals**: International gold and silver prices dropped significantly on Friday. After the end of the US government shutdown, the market is waiting for economic data. Fed officials' hawkish remarks have suppressed the expectation of interest rate cuts. Precious metals are in a high - level oscillation platform, waiting for new drivers [3]. - **Base Metals** - **Copper**: Copper prices first declined and then rose on the night of last Friday. The market trading theme is unclear, waiting for US economic indicators and domestic demand. Short - term high - position short orders can be traded near 88,000 yuan, and copper prices are in a state of oscillation [4]. - **Aluminum**: Shanghai aluminum prices dropped on Friday. The long - term supply - demand situation has potential, but the short - term fundamentals are stable. The oscillation - upward trend has not been broken, and attention should be paid to capital movements [5]. - **Zinc**: Fed officials' hawkish remarks led to a decline in the equity market and a large - scale exit of long - position funds in the non - ferrous sector. LME zinc inventory is rising slightly, and domestic refinery profits are under pressure. The support for the decline of Shanghai zinc is seen at the 20 - day moving average [8]. - **Lead**: High lead prices have weakened downstream procurement, and refineries are resuming production. Although there are short - term factors to stimulate consumption, the support for high prices is insufficient. Considering cost support, Shanghai lead is expected to oscillate in the range of 17,300 - 17,500 yuan/ton [9]. - **Tin**: The amplitude of Shanghai tin increased on the night of last Friday. The inventory of tin has increased. The market is waiting for the inventory data. Long - term high - position short orders can be held near 295,000 yuan [10]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The tender price of a large northern steel mill is stable. Iron - water production has rebounded, and the output of manganese silicon has slightly decreased. The price has strong bottom support [17]. - **Silicon Iron**: The tender price of a large northern steel mill has increased slightly. Demand has resilience, and supply is at a high level. Due to the increase in cost, the price is expected to be more likely to rise [18]. - **Other Metals - Related Products** - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: The spot price of Baotai ADC12 decreased by 100 yuan to 21,000 yuan on Friday. The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the tax policy adjustment is unclear. It continues to fluctuate with aluminum prices [6]. - **Alumina**: The operating capacity is at a historical high, and the supply surplus pattern is difficult to change. The price is mainly in a weak operation with limited rebound space [7]. Chemicals - **Polysilicon**: Photovoltaic terminal demand is weak. Both upstream and downstream reduced production in November, and the actual improvement in supply - demand is limited. The price will continue to oscillate in the short - term [11]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The supply in the southwest is significantly reduced during the dry season, but the expected production reduction of organic silicon monomer enterprises may drag down demand. The price is under pressure at a high level and will continue to oscillate [12]. - **Benzene and Its Derivatives** - **Pure Benzene**: The overseas gasoline market is strong, and the price has rebounded, but the downstream profit is weak, and the sustainability of overseas demand is uncertain [25]. - **Styrene**: The supply - demand is in a tight balance, with only a small expected increase in domestic supply and a weakened import increase expectation. The demand is stable [26]. - **Polyolefins** - **Polypropylene, Plastic, and Propylene**: The supply of propylene is loose, and the demand is supported to some extent. The supply of polyethylene is stable, and the demand is weakening. The supply pressure of polypropylene is slightly increasing, and the market price is difficult to rise continuously [27]. - **PVC and Caustic Soda** - **PVC**: The cancellation of India's BIS certification has little impact. The cost has some support, and the inventory has decreased slightly. The supply is high, and the demand is weak, so it is expected to oscillate narrowly [28]. - **Caustic Soda**: The upstream cost has increased, and the price has weakened. The inventory pressure is still large, and the demand is insufficient, so it is in a weak operation [28]. - **PX and PTA**: Affected by the tight overseas aromatics market, the prices of PX and PTA have rebounded. There is still an expectation of industry production reduction, and the overseas demand sustainability needs to be observed [29]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The weekly output has slightly increased, and the port inventory has increased significantly. The supply pressure is large, and the demand is expected to weaken in the medium - term, so a short - selling strategy is recommended [30]. - **Short - Fiber and Bottle - Chip**: Short - fiber has no new investment pressure, but the demand is expected to weaken. The demand for bottle - chip has decreased with the cooling weather, and the long - term pressure is over - capacity [31]. Agricultural Products - **Soybeans and Related Products** - **Soybeans and Soybean Meal**: The USDA report has a limited impact on the market. Domestic soybean supply is sufficient, and the inventory is at a relatively high level. The planting progress of new - season soybeans in South America is slow, and attention should be paid to the impact of La Niña. The domestic soybean meal will follow the short - term decline of US soybeans [35]. - **Soybean Oil and Palm Oil**: The USDA report has led to a decline in US soybean prices. The domestic price difference between soybean oil and palm oil has changed, and attention should be paid to the supply - demand of palm oil [36]. - **Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil**: The USDA report is bearish for domestic rapeseed products. The inventory of rapeseed oil has decreased, and attention should be paid to the arrival of Australian rapeseed and the production and export of Canadian rapeseed [37]. - **Domestic Soybeans**: The price of domestic soybeans is strong, and the difference with imported soybeans has widened. Attention should be paid to the performance of the domestic soybean spot market [38]. - **Corn**: The USDA report is slightly bearish. Domestic corn imports are expected to continue, and the new - grain supply peak in the Northeast has not passed. The futures price is expected to decline [39]. - **Livestock and Poultry Products** - **Pigs**: The futures price of pigs shows a pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength. The spot price has slightly decreased. In the long - term, there is a high probability of a second bottom - probing next year [40]. - **Eggs**: The futures price has dropped rapidly. The trading logic has switched to the high - supply and low - demand situation, and short positions can be held [41]. - **Cotton**: The USDA report is bearish for US cotton. The domestic cotton purchase is almost over, and the new - cotton listing brings pressure. It is recommended to wait and see or conduct short - term operations [42]. - **Sugar**: The international sugar supply is sufficient, and the domestic market focuses on the new - season production estimate. The production expectation of Guangxi is relatively good [43]. - **Apples**: The futures price is oscillating at a high level. The short - term price is strong, but there may be inventory pressure in the long - term [44]. - **Wood**: The futures price is oscillating. The low inventory supports the price, and it is recommended to wait and see [45]. - **Paper Pulp**: The price has risen continuously, and the inventory has increased. The valuation is low, and there is an expectation of improvement in the long - term. The short - term upward space may be limited, and long positions should be held carefully [46]. Financial Derivatives - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: The 12 - contract is expected to oscillate, and the 02 - contract is expected to reflect the pre - Spring Festival freight peak. Attention should be paid to the end - of - month fixed - cargo situation and supply - side changes [19]. - **Stock Index**: The Shanghai Composite Index has fluctuated, and the futures index has declined. The economic data has slowed down, and the overseas situation has increased market uncertainty. The technology and advanced manufacturing sectors are still the mid - term focus, and attention should be paid to the style rotation of consumption and cyclical sectors [47]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The futures price of treasury bonds is in a narrow - range oscillation. The market's reaction to economic data is flat. The structural differentiation continues, and changes in market risk preference may bring new opportunities [48].

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| Millio | 国技期货 | 责金属日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年11月14日 | | 黄金 | ☆☆☆ | 刘冬博 高级分析师 | | 白银 | ☆☆☆ | F3062795 Z0015311 | | | | 吴江 高级分析师 | | | | F3085524 Z0016394 | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 本报告版权属于国投期货有限公司 不可作为投资依据,转载请注明出处 隔夜贵金属冲高回落波动较大。随着美国结束史上最长政府停摆，市场等待经济数据继续权衡经济和货币政 策前景，美联储官员发言多数偏鹰体现分歧依然很大，白宫警告10月非农与通胀数据可能不会公布。国际金 银短期持续上行驱动有限,关注前高位置阻力。 ★特朗普:政府停摆造成1.5万亿美元损失,真正计算出损失的总体影响需要数周甚至数月的时间。 ★美国白宫国家经济委员会主任哈塞特:近期将公布十月份的就业报告，但不会包含失业率，预计第四季度 GDP将因政府停摆而下降1.5%。看不到不降息的太多理由。 ★美联储鹰派 ...

地产月月览: 2025年1-10月 �� 回投期货 黑金研投团队 2025/11/14 主要指标 累计值 累计同比 10月单月增速 9月单月增速 1-9月增速 2024全年增速 开发投资完成额（亿元） 73563 -14.7% -23 0% -21.3% -139% -10 6% 房屋新开工面积（万平米） 49061 -19.8% -29.5% -14.4% -18.9% -23.0% 商品房销售面积 (万平米) 71982 -6.8% -18.8% -10.5% -5.5% -12.9% 房屋施工面积 (万平米) 652939 -9.4% -9.4% -12.7% 房屋竣工面积（万平米） 34861 -16.9% -28.2% 1.5% -15.3% -27.7% 数据简评：从10月数据看，地产销售面积降幅继续扩大，投资瑞依然疲弱，新开工、施工面积继续大幅下滑，关注政策变化及市场内生动能修复情况, 房地产开发投资增速(*) 房屋 商品房销售面积增速（*） 房屋施工面积增速(*) 20 10 累计同比 · 東目同比 累计同比 申目目比 30 器计回比 = 单月同比 ·累计回比 0 0 0 -10 -20 -5 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: ★★★ (implied by the context as it's the highest rating available and not explicitly stated otherwise) [1] - Pulp: ★☆☆ [1] - Sugar: ☆☆☆ [1] - Apple: ☆☆☆ [1] - Logs: ☆☆☆ [1] - Natural Rubber: ★☆☆ [1] - 20 - rubber: ☆☆☆ [1] - Butadiene Rubber: ★☆☆ [1] Core Views - The report analyzes the market conditions of various soft commodities including cotton, pulp, sugar, apple, logs, natural rubber, 20 - rubber, and butadiene rubber, and provides corresponding investment suggestions based on supply, demand, and inventory situations [2][3][4][5][6][7] Summary by Commodity Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zhengzhou cotton futures prices are slightly down with a risk of short - term downward breakout due to new cotton listing and average demand. New cotton cost provides support, but price increases face hedging pressure. As of November 6, national cumulative processed lint was 319.3 million tons, up 59.5 million tons year - on - year. The cotton yarn market is stable with rigid demand. Suggest to wait and see [2] Sugar - Overnight US sugar oscillated. Brazilian production data in mid - October was neutral, with the end of the current sugar - making season approaching. In China, Zhengzhou sugar oscillated weakly. There are rumors of syrup import control, providing support. The market focuses on the next season's production estimate. Sugar prices are expected to remain weak [3] Apple - Futures prices are strong. Apple purchases in Shandong are nearing completion, and cold - storage trading has started in the northwest. As of November 13, national cold - storage apple inventory was 735.77 million tons, down 12% year - on - year. The market focus shifts to sales expectations. In the short - term, prices are strong, but long - term de - stocking is a concern [4] 20 - rubber, Natural Rubber & Synthetic Rubber - Natural rubber and 20 - rubber futures prices are down, butadiene rubber futures prices oscillate weakly. Global natural rubber supply is at a high level, but Yunnan's production is decreasing. Domestic butadiene rubber plant operating rates are rising. Demand is slowly weakening, and rubber inventories are increasing. Suggest RU&BR for rebound trading, NR for waiting and see, and focus on cross - variety arbitrage opportunities [5] Pulp - Pulp futures prices are down. As of November 13, China's mainstream pulp import inventory was 211.0 million tons, up 5.1% month - on - month and 21.3% year - on - year. Overseas broad - leaf pulp prices are strong, but downstream procurement is average. The pulp valuation is low with medium - long - term improvement expectations. Short - term upward space may be limited, but there is a rumored risk of cornering the market. Suggest to hold long positions cautiously [6] Logs - Futures prices oscillate. New Zealand's radiata pine prices are rising in November, but domestic prices are weak. Importers' willingness to import is low, and domestic supply may remain low. Demand provides support, and low inventory supports prices. Suggest to wait and see [7]

Report Investment Ratings - Douyi (Soybean): ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Douyou (Soybean Oil): ☆☆☆, suggesting a relatively balanced short - term trend with poor operability [1] - Zonglvyou (Palm Oil): ☆☆☆, also indicating a relatively balanced short - term trend with poor operability [1] - Doupo (Soybean Meal): ★☆☆, showing a bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Caiyou (Rapeseed Oil): ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Caipo (Rapeseed Meal): ☆☆☆, suggesting a relatively balanced short - term trend with poor operability [1] - Yumi (Corn): ☆☆☆, indicating a relatively balanced short - term trend with poor operability [1] - Shengzhu (Live Pigs): ☆☆☆, suggesting a relatively balanced short - term trend with poor operability [1] - Jidan (Eggs): ★☆☆, showing a bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor [1] Core Views - The report analyzes the market conditions of various agricultural products, including soybeans, soybean oil, palm oil, soybean meal, rapeseed oil, rapeseed meal, corn, live pigs, and eggs. It provides insights into supply - demand situations, price trends, and factors affecting prices, and offers corresponding investment strategies [2][3][4] Summary by Categories Soybean - Domestic soybeans have seen a significant increase in positions and a strong price rise. Some enterprises have raised purchase prices, and the gap with imported soybeans has widened. Attention should be paid to the US Department of Agriculture report for imported soybeans [2] - US soybeans have hit recent highs, and domestic soybeans are in a situation of sufficient supply and poor crushing profits. South American new - season soybean planting progress is slow, and the impact of La Nina on production needs attention. Focus on the USDA November supply - demand report and the signing and implementation of the Sino - US economic and trade agreement [3] Soybean Oil and Palm Oil - Both soybean oil and palm oil prices are falling, with the soybean - palm oil price difference widening. The high inventory of Malaysian palm oil needs attention, and the supply - demand situation in November will guide price trends. The loss of near - end import soybean crushing profit supports soybean oil prices [4] Soybean Meal - The domestic soybean meal futures contract M2601 has risen following the increase in US soybeans. The current supply of soybeans is sufficient, and inventories are at a relatively high level. Strategies should focus on the opportunity to go long after the easing of Sino - US trade relations [3] Rapeseed Oil and Rapeseed Meal - Domestic rapeseed - related futures have declined slightly, and market sentiment is cautious before the release of the US agricultural supply - demand report. Rapeseed oil is relatively strong, with inventory declining. The Canadian biofuel incentive plan affects rapeseed prices, and attention should be paid to Australian and Canadian rapeseed situations [6] Corn - The Dalian corn futures 2601 contract is oscillating at a high level. Farmers in the Northeast are reluctant to sell, and the overall grain - selling progress is slow. The supply in Shandong is tight. The rebound height is expected to be limited, and the 01 contract is waiting for a correction [7] Live Pigs - The live pig futures market is weakly adjusting with reduced positions. The overall average selling price has little change. Pay attention to the impact of demand changes on slaughter volume after the temperature drop in the North. The market is expected to have a double - bottom pattern in the long - term [8] Eggs - Egg futures have significantly reduced positions and prices have dropped rapidly. The trading logic has switched to the spot logic of high production capacity, large supply pressure, and off - season demand. Hold short positions established at the previous high [9]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **螺纹**: Not clearly indicated in the given rating description [1] - **热卷**: Not clearly indicated in the given rating description [1] - **铁矿**: ☆☆☆, representing a relatively clear long - term trend and a current appropriate investment opportunity [1] - **焦炭**: ☆☆☆, representing a relatively clear long - term trend and a current appropriate investment opportunity [1] - **焦煤**: ☆☆☆, representing a relatively clear long - term trend and a current appropriate investment opportunity [1] - **锰硅**: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish/bearish bias with a driving force for price movement but poor operability on the trading floor [1] - **硅铁**: ★☆★, not clearly defined in the given rating rules, but presumably implies a certain bullish tendency [1] Report's Core View - The overall situation of the steel and related raw material market is complex, with prices mostly in a volatile state. Demand expectations are generally pessimistic, but policy easing provides some support. Each variety has its own supply - demand characteristics and price trends, and market participants need to pay attention to factors such as environmental restrictions, production changes, and macro - level events [2][3][4] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - Today's steel futures market showed a slight rebound in volatility. This week, the apparent demand for rebar decreased slightly, production declined simultaneously, and inventory continued to fall. The demand for hot - rolled coils stabilized, production continued to decline, and the inventory accumulation pace slowed down. Iron - making water production increased, but downstream acceptance capacity was insufficient. With the decline in steel mill profits, there is still downward pressure in the later stage. The negative feedback pressure in the industrial chain remains to be alleviated. Attention should be paid to the sustainability of environmental protection restrictions in Tangshan and other places. From the October data, the decline in real estate investment continued to expand, the growth rates of infrastructure and manufacturing investment continued to decline, and overall domestic demand remained weak. Steel exports declined from their high levels. Demand expectations are still pessimistic, but policy easing still provides some support to the futures market. In the short term, it may continue the volatile pattern, and attention should be paid to market trends and marginal changes in demand [2] Iron Ore - Today's iron ore futures market was volatile, and the basis was relatively high recently. On the supply side, global shipments were slightly stronger than the same period last year. The Simandou iron ore mine was officially put into production, but the short - term production capacity that could be released was limited. The domestic arrival volume was at a high level for the same period, and port inventory continued to increase. There was some structural movement in Australian ore inventory. On the demand side, steel demand declined in the off - season, the loss situation of steel mills intensified, and although iron - making water production rebounded this week, there was still room for production cuts in the future. At the macro level, several important events had been implemented, and the short - term impact on the futures market weakened. The market began to trade the reality of a marginally looser iron ore market, and it is expected that the iron ore price will mainly fluctuate [3] Coke - The intraday coke price was volatile. The fourth round of coking price adjustments was fully implemented this week. Coking profits were still average, and daily production decreased slightly. Coke inventory decreased slightly. Currently, downstream buyers made small - scale purchases as needed, and inventory decreased slightly. Traders' purchasing willingness was average. Overall, the supply of carbon elements was abundant. Downstream iron - making water production returned to a high - level range, and the demand for raw materials remained resilient. However, the profit level of steel was average, and there was strong pressure to lower raw material prices. The coke futures price was at a premium, and the price may mainly fluctuate [4] Coking Coal - The intraday coking coal price was volatile. The production of coking coal mines increased slightly. The spot auction transactions were normal, and the transaction prices fluctuated. Terminal inventory increased slightly. The total coking coal inventory increased slightly compared with the previous period, and the production - end inventory increased slightly. Safety inspections were carried out in major coal - producing areas, and attention should be paid to the relevant impacts. Overall, the supply of carbon elements was abundant. Downstream iron - making water production returned to a high - level range, and the demand for raw materials remained resilient. However, the profit level of steel was average, and there was strong pressure to lower raw material prices. The coke futures price was at a premium, and the coking coal futures price was at a discount to Mongolian coal. The market had certain expectations for the safety production assessment in major coking coal - producing areas, and the price may mainly fluctuate [6] Silicon Manganese - The intraday silicon manganese price was volatile. A large steel mill in the north set the tender price at 5,820 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous period. On the demand side, iron - making water production rebounded to a high - level range. The weekly production of silicon manganese decreased slightly, but the production was still at a high level, and silicon manganese inventory increased slowly. The forward quotation of Comilog manganese ore increased slightly compared with the previous period. The price of spot manganese ore changed quickly with the fluctuations of the futures market and increased this week [7] Silicon Iron - The intraday silicon iron price was volatile. A large steel mill in the north set the tender price at 5,680 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan/ton from the previous period. On the demand side, iron - making water production rebounded to a high - level range. Export demand increased to about 40,000 tons, with a marginal impact. The production of magnesium metal increased compared with the previous period, and the secondary demand increased marginally. Overall, demand remained resilient. Silicon iron supply remained at a high level, and the on - balance - sheet inventory continued to decline. The increase in electricity costs and the price of blue charcoal led to a certain sentiment of a bottom - bouncing rebound in silicon iron, and it is judged that the price is more likely to rise than to fall [8]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish/ bearish bias with a driving force for price movement, but limited operability in the market [1] - Fuel oil: ★☆☆, similar to crude oil, with a bias but limited operability [1] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: ★☆☆, same as above [1] - Asphalt: ★☆☆, with a bias but limited operability [1] - Liquefied petroleum gas: ☆☆☆, suggesting a relatively balanced short - term trend with poor operability and a wait - and - see approach [1] Core Viewpoints - The global oil market will have supply surpluses of 1.84 million barrels per day and 3.31 million barrels per day this year and next year respectively, and the surplus will gradually expand quarter by quarter. There is still a downward risk in the crude oil market this year [1] - The fuel oil market is affected by geopolitical factors, and the upward drive for high - sulfur cracking is limited. The low - sulfur market has improved fundamentals [2] - The 2601 asphalt contract has some support at 3000 yuan/ton, and the fundamental bearish factors still suppress the market in the medium - to - long term [3] - The LPG market is expected to fluctuate strongly due to tightened supply - demand margins [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Based on the latest adjustments of the supply - demand balance sheets by three major institutions in November, considering OPEC+ suspending production increases and strictly implementing production cut compensation in the first quarter of next year, the global oil market will have supply surpluses of 1.84 million barrels per day and 3.31 million barrels per day this year and next year respectively. The supply surplus will gradually expand quarter by quarter, and the most relaxed quarter (Q1 next year) has not arrived yet. Since the fourth quarter, the inventory accumulation rate of global oil at 2.4% has exceeded that of the previous three quarters, and the supply surplus is increasingly evident in the inventory. There is still a downward risk in the crude oil market this year, and attention should be paid to the realization of geopolitical risks related to Venezuela [1] Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - The drone attack on Russia's Novorossiysk today damaged the oil terminal facilities, driving up the prices of crude - related products, and fuel oil followed suit. In terms of fundamentals, high - sulfur fuel oil is still supported by geopolitical factors in the short term. Sanctions and attacks on Russia continue to disrupt the supply side, and the possible further sanctions on Venezuela by the US also bring uncertainties. However, the actual reduction in supply needs further observation. The demand side is at the end of the power - generation peak season, and the increase in Middle - East supply offsets the impact, and the demand for refinery feedstock is also weak, so the upward drive for high - sulfur cracking is limited. The low - sulfur market has seen a relief in supply pressure due to unstable operation of overseas refineries. The strengthening of the crack spreads of gasoline and diesel provides support from the perspective of production conversion. Coupled with the peak season of bunker fuel demand in the fourth quarter and the easing of Sino - US trade relations, the fundamentals have improved compared with the previous period [2] Asphalt - The 2601 contract has some support at 3000 yuan/ton. The worse - than - expected shipment volume not only disproves the expectation of rush - demand in the final year of the "14th Five - Year Plan" but also sends a negative signal that the demand is lower than the same period last year. The destocking of the latest commercial inventory continues to slow down, and the year - on - year increase in social inventory has widened after reaching an inflection point of being higher than the same period last year at the end of October. In the medium - to - long term, the bearish fundamentals still suppress the BU market [3] Liquefied Petroleum Gas - The international LPG market has been trending strongly recently, and the supply of imported resources is tight. The improved profitability of butane dehydrogenation plants has boosted the enthusiasm of downstream chemical enterprises to start production, and the significant cooling in many places has led to an improvement in combustion - end demand. The storage capacity utilization rates of refineries and ports have decreased. The tightening of supply - demand margins has boosted the LPG market to be regarded as fluctuating strongly [3]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: ★☆☆, indicating a slight bullish bias but limited operability on the market [1] - Aluminum: ★★★, representing a clear bullish trend with appropriate investment opportunities [1] - Zinc: ☆☆☆, suggesting a short - term balance between long and short trends and poor operability, advising to wait and see [1] - Nickel and Stainless Steel: ★☆☆, with a slight bearish bias and limited operability [1] - Lithium Carbonate: ★★★, showing a clear bullish trend with appropriate investment opportunities [1] - Polysilicon: ☆☆☆, indicating a short - term balance and poor operability [1] - Industrial Silicon: ★★★, representing a clear bullish trend with appropriate investment opportunities [1] - Tin: ★☆☆, with a slight bearish bias and limited operability [1] Core Views - The market is affected by various factors such as government policies, economic data, and supply - demand relationships. Different metals show different trends and investment opportunities [1][2][3][4][5] Summary by Metal Copper - The Shanghai copper market rebounded this week, but both domestic and foreign copper prices faced resistance at 88,000 yuan and $11,000. The US government ended the shutdown, and the market focused on economic growth. Short - term short positions can be traded against 88,000 yuan, and the copper price is in a volatile state [1] Aluminum - The Shanghai aluminum price fell from a high. The short - term fundamentals are stable, and the inventory and spot performance are neutral. The downstream procurement weakened, and the fundamentals deteriorated. The price is under pressure near 17,800 yuan/ton. The consumption expectation may improve in the short term, but the support for high prices is insufficient. Alumina is in a state of oversupply and is weakly operating [2][3] Zinc - The Fed officials' hawkish remarks led to a decline in the zinc price. The LME zinc inventory increased slightly, and the SMM zinc social inventory decreased. The domestic smelter profit is under pressure, and some smelters have cut production. The support for the decline of Shanghai zinc is seen at the 20 - day moving average [2] Nickel and Stainless Steel - The decline of Shanghai nickel accelerated. The nickel industry chain is in an overall over - supply situation. The mainstream stainless steel mills cancelled the price limit and lowered the price. The market is sluggish, and the nickel price is weakly operating [4] Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate price is in a high - level shock. The downstream battery orders increased, and the total inventory decreased. The ore price strengthened again. It is expected to be in a slightly strong shock in the short term [5] Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon futures weakened slightly. The supply decreased during the dry season in the southwest, but the demand was dragged down. The short - term market is under pressure at a high level and continues to fluctuate [5] Polysilicon - The polysilicon futures rose slightly, and the trading volume decreased. The photovoltaic terminal demand is weak, and the supply - demand improvement is limited. The market is driven by policy expectations and continues to fluctuate in the short term [5] Tin - The Shanghai tin price gave back yesterday's gains. The market follows the sector sentiment, and the mid - long - term short positions can be held against 295,000 yuan [4]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Urea: ☆☆☆ (implies a certain state, but unclear from the context whether it's bullish or bearish) [1] - Methanol: ★☆☆ (bearish, with a downward trend but low operability) [1] - Pure Benzene: ★☆☆ (not clear from context, just following the format) [1] - Styrene: ★☆☆ (not clear from context, just following the format) [1] - Propylene: ★☆☆ (not clear from context, just following the format) [1] - Plastic: ★★★ (bullish, with a clear upward trend and investment opportunities) [1] - PVC: ★☆☆ (not clear from context, just following the format) [1] - Caustic Soda: ★★★ (bullish, with a clear upward trend and investment opportunities) [1] - PTA: ★★★ (bullish, with a clear upward trend and investment opportunities) [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ★☆☆ (bearish, with a downward trend but low operability) [1] - Short Fiber: ★★★ (bullish, with a clear upward trend and investment opportunities) [1] - Glass: ★★★ (bullish, with a clear upward trend and investment opportunities) [1] - Soda Ash: ★★★ (bullish, with a clear upward trend and investment opportunities) [1] - Bottle Chip: ★☆☆ (bearish, with a downward trend but low operability) [1] Core Viewpoints - The overall supply in the chemical market is relatively loose, and the demand is generally weak, with different products showing different trends and investment opportunities [2][3][4][5][6][7] - For some products, such as methanol and ethylene glycol, there are downward pressure and bearish expectations; while for others like plastic and soda ash, there are upward trends and investment opportunities [1][2][7] Summaries by Related Catalogs Olefins - Polyolefins - The two - olefin futures contracts rose slightly after an intraday high - low movement. The supply is loose, the production enterprises want to stabilize the market, but the trading is average. The demand for propylene has some support due to the resumption of previously shut - down butanol and octanol plants [2] - The plastic and polypropylene futures contracts rose slightly. The supply of polyethylene is stable, but the demand from packaging and shed film factories is weakening. The supply pressure of polypropylene is increasing slightly, and the market has supply - demand contradictions [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene - The overseas gasoline market is strong, leading to an increase in the outflow of Asian pure benzene and toluene. The price of unified benzene has some elasticity, but the downstream profits are weak, so the rebound height should be viewed cautiously [3] - The styrene futures contract rose significantly. The overseas market provides support, but the future supply is expected to increase [3] Polyester - The PX price rebound drives up the PTA price, but considering the weakening demand and uncertain overseas demand, a cautious bullish view is taken [4] - The weekly output of ethylene glycol increased slightly, and the supply pressure is large. A bearish view is maintained in the medium - term, and attention should be paid to the device dynamics [4] - The short - fiber market has a good spot pattern but weakening demand expectations. The bottle - chip demand is weakening, and the long - term pressure is over - capacity [4] Coal Chemical Industry - The methanol futures price dropped significantly. The import volume is high, the port inventory is accumulating, and the traditional downstream demand is weak. It may continue to be under pressure in the short - term [5] - The urea futures price fluctuated narrowly. The new device in Xinjiang is producing, and the industrial compound fertilizer production is increasing. The short - term market is expected to fluctuate in a range with a slightly rising price center [5] Chlor - Alkali Industry - The PVC price fluctuated strongly. The cancellation of the Indian BIS certification has little impact, and the market is in a supply - high - demand - low situation, expected to fluctuate narrowly [6] - The caustic soda price showed an oscillating trend. The upstream cost is rising, the price is weakening, and the supply is high while the demand is insufficient [6] Soda Ash - Glass - The soda ash price fluctuated strongly. The light - soda market is okay, the cost is rising, and the supply is high in the long - term, showing an oversupply situation [7] - The glass price decreased with increased positions. The intermediate inventory is high, the cost is rising, and the processing orders are improving but still insufficient compared to the same period last year. It is recommended to wait and see [7]