| 11/11/2 | 国投期货 | 贵金属日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年05月08日 | | 黄金 | 女女女 | 刘冬博 高级分析师 | | 白银 | 女女女 | F3062795 Z0015311 | | | | 吴江 高级分析师 | | | | F3085524 Z0016394 | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 今日贵金属先扬后抑,日内波动剧烈。美联储会议连续第三次维持利率不变,声明强调通胀和失业率上升的 风险走高。鲍威尔并未释放增量信息,依然表明不急于做出进一步的利率调整,倾向于等待更多经济信息指 导决策。美元信用危机和全球政经局势不确定性支撑金价中长期重心上移趋势，贸易谈判和地练纷争消息不 断扰动市场,金价在历史高位波动较大,维持回调后布局思路。 ★中国央行:中国4月末黄金储备报7377万盎司,环比增加7万盎司,为连续第六个月增持黄金。 ★★☆ 两颗星代表持多/空,不仅判断较为明晰的上涨/下跌趋势,且行情正在盘面发酵 ★★★ 三颗星代表更加明晰的多/空趋势,且 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Urea: ★★★ [1] - Methanol: ★☆☆ [1] - Styrene: ★☆★ [1] - Polypropylene: ★☆★ [1] - Plastic: ★☆★ [1] - PVC: ★★★ [1] - Caustic Soda: ☆☆☆ [1] - PX: ☆☆☆ [1] - PTA: ★★★ [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ☆☆☆ [1] - Short Fiber: ☆☆☆ [1] - Glass: ☆☆☆ [1] - Bottle Chip: ★★★ [1] Core Views - The overall chemical market shows a mixed trend with different products facing various supply - demand situations and price movements [2][3][4] - Some products are affected by factors such as import volume, production capacity utilization, downstream demand, and cost changes [2][6][7] - Market sentiment and policy factors also play important roles in the price trends of certain products [3][7] Summary by Product Methanol - Methanol futures prices decline. Import arrivals rise to medium - high levels, MTO unit operating rates in Jiangsu and Zhejiang are low, and ports are continuously accumulating inventory. Inland unit capacity utilization rebounds significantly, and production enterprise inventories increase slightly. Downstream procurement is expected to decrease, and the market may enter a inventory - accumulation cycle with supply increasing and demand weakening [2] Urea - Urea spot prices in mainstream regions are stable, and the futures market fluctuates narrowly. There are rumors of export liberalization with stricter controls. Industrial compound fertilizer production is expected to increase, and there is still a gap in agricultural demand. Production enterprise inventories turn from rising to falling. New capacity is to be launched in May, and the market may maintain a range - bound operation [3] Polyolefins - Polyolefin futures contracts decline slightly. Polyethylene inventory accumulates after the holiday, and terminal demand is weaker than previous years. Polypropylene production recovers quickly after the holiday, but demand recovery is slow. Upstream and mid - stream inventory accumulation pressures prices, and market transactions are light [4] Styrene - Styrene futures prices continue to fall. Supply increases slightly with the restart of Wanhua's unit, and demand is stable but weak. Cost - side factors, such as the increase in gasoline inventory and the Fed's stance, make it difficult for the market sentiment to improve [6] Polyester - PX and PTA prices fluctuate strongly, possibly due to rumors of PX unit repairs. PX valuation recovers from a low level. PTA inventory decreases due to unit maintenance, but there are risks in order improvement and new capacity is expected in the third quarter. Ethylene glycol prices rise, and its supply - demand situation may improve. Short fiber prices rebound due to cost factors, and bottle chip is in the peak demand season [7] Chlor - Alkali - PVC inventory accumulates, and prices decline. There is pressure from new capacity on the supply side, and downstream demand is weak. Caustic soda prices weaken, and although inventory decreases, it is still at a medium - high level. Downstream industries have poor profits and mainly make rigid - demand purchases [8] Glass and Soda Ash - Glass inventory accumulates significantly, and prices continue to fall. There is high inventory pressure in the upstream and mid - stream. Macro - level policies may support the market, but the current driving force is weak. Soda ash inventory continues to accumulate, and there are maintenance plans in the future. Long - term supply pressure exists [9]

隔夜国际油价回落，布伦特07合约跌1.76%。上周美国EIA原油库存超预期下降203.2万桶，美国宣 布与也门胡赛武装停火，特朗普亦表示愿与伊朗达成协议，中东地缘风险有所降温。我们自4月15日 明确提出原油偏空策略，前期油价跌至4月上旬低点已对OPEC+产量策略的改变和贸易战对需求的负 面影响有较充分定价,短期油价进一步下行空间有限,短期或以震荡走势为主。 【贵金属】 gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 综合晨报 2025年05月08日 【原油】 隔夜贵金属偏弱震荡。美联储会议连续第三次维持利率不变,声明强调通胀和关业率上升的风险走 高。鲍威尔并未释放增蛋信息，依然表明不息于做出进一步的利率调整,倾向于等待更多经济信息 指导决策。美元信用危机和全球政经局势不确定性支撑金价中长期重心上移趋势，贸易谈判和地缘 纷争消息不断扰动市场，金价在历史高位波动较大，维持回调后布局思路。 【铜】 隔夜铜价走跌,尽管中美商务高层本周将在瑞士接洽,但市场警惕关税动向的不确定。美联储连续 第三次维持基准利率不变,在硬指标明朗前,对风险因素延续足够定力。国内库存降速快,重点关 注现货与升贴水变动。4月国内精铜产 ...

衍生无限未来 从情绪修复到政策组合拳再落地 -- "一揽子金融政策支持稳市场稳预期"发布会点评 点石成金 一、发布会解读:金融政策多箭齐发 国新办5月7日举行新闻发布会，请中国人民银行行长、国家金融监督管理总局局长、中国证监会主 席介绍 "一揽子金融政策支持稳市场稳预期"有关情况。本次发布会干货内容满满，在4月的政治局会议 结合近几个月国际形势和国内经济运行的新特征针对性地给出了一些新的指导思想和后续任务部署之后, 本次国新办发布会拉开了政策落地的帷幕。 央行行长在发布会上发布了三类共10项具体宏观货币政策。央行全方面政策发力,强化逆周期调 节,央行此次带着全面的货币工具回归,425政治局会议的政策精神快速落实。实施好适度宽松的货币政 策，加大中长期流动性供给，保持市场流动性充裕。响应市场的期待，降低存款准备金率0.5个百分点， 预计将向市场提供长期流动性约1万亿元；阶段性将汽车金融公司、金融租赁公司的存款准备金率调降为 0%将大力度助力消费金融。全面降低市场利率，下调政策利率0.1%，即公开市场7天期逆回购操作利率 从目前的1.5%调降至1.4%，下调结构性货币政策工具利率0.25%，从总量和结构分别降低企 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings The document does not provide industry investment ratings. Core Views - International oil prices rebounded recently after approaching the low in early April. The potential implementation of Kazakhstan's production - cut commitment may lead to a correction of OPEC+'s rapid production - resumption policy. The strategy of buying put options and selling call options on crude oil proposed on April 15 can take profits [2]. - Precious metals rose for the second consecutive night. The long - term upward trend of gold prices is supported by the US dollar credit crisis and global political and economic uncertainties. However, short - term prices are volatile, and the focus is on the Fed meeting [3]. - Different commodities have different trends, including copper, aluminum, and other metals, as well as various chemical and agricultural products, with corresponding trading strategies proposed based on supply - demand, inventory, and other factors [4 - 44]. Summary by Categories Metals - **Crude Oil**: International oil prices rebounded. OPEC+ policy may change, and the previous option strategy can take profits [2]. - **Precious Metals**: Prices rose, with long - term upward support but short - term volatility. Focus on the Fed meeting [3]. - **Copper**: LME copper led the rise, while SHFE copper and COMEX copper faced resistance. Consider short - selling the 2507 contract or continue long - spread arbitrage between near - month contracts [4]. - **Aluminum**: SHFE aluminum oscillated weakly. High inventory during the May Day holiday, and resistance exists at 20000 - 20300 yuan. Consider selling hedging [5]. - **Alumina**: Production decreased due to maintenance, but re - production may occur. The price rebound is limited, and short - selling on rebounds is recommended [6]. - **Zinc**: Domestic inventories increased after the holiday. Demand faces pressure, and short - selling on rebounds is the main strategy [7]. - **Lead**: Inventories increased slightly. There is a game between cost and consumption. Pay attention to the internal - external price ratio and support levels [8]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: Nickel prices fluctuated narrowly. Supply increased, and prices decreased. Short - selling opportunities are being observed [9]. - **Tin**: Prices rebounded, but the upper resistance is obvious. Short - selling is the main strategy [10]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: Prices continued to be weak. Inventories changed, and short - positions should be held [11]. - **Polysilicon**: Prices are expected to decline in May due to supply and demand factors [12]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Prices continued to decline. High inventory and weak demand, and the price is expected to remain weak [13]. - **Iron Ore**: The price rebounded. Supply decreased slightly, and demand has some resilience. The trend is expected to be volatile [15]. Building Materials - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: Steel prices rebounded at night. Demand and supply have different trends. The market may stabilize in the short term [14]. Shipping - **Container Freight Index (European Line)**: Freight rates are under pressure. Seasonal recovery is limited, and new capacity in June may suppress prices. Pay attention to potential short - term market opportunities [16]. Energy - Related Products - **Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Prices are volatile. High - sulfur fuel oil is bearish, and the sustainability of low - sulfur fuel oil's improvement needs to be observed [17]. - **Bitumen**: Prices followed oil prices but were relatively strong. Demand increased seasonally, and the crack spread reached a new high [18]. - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas**: The overseas market has support, while the domestic market is under pressure. Prices are expected to oscillate [19]. Chemicals - **Urea**: Prices were boosted by export news. Supply is sufficient, but the supply - demand contradiction may emerge after the peak agricultural demand [20]. - **Methanol**: Supply is expected to increase, and demand will enter the off - season. Prices are expected to be weak [21]. - **Styrene**: The bear market continues. Production increases, and prices decline [22]. - **Polypropylene and Plastic**: Inventories increased during the holiday. Demand is weak, and prices are under pressure [23]. - **PVC and Caustic Soda**: PVC may oscillate at a low level due to supply pressure and weak demand. Caustic soda oscillates strongly, but there is no clear long - position driver [24]. - **PX and PTA**: Prices rebounded. PX valuation recovered, and PTA inventory decreased [25]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Prices rebounded, but the supply - demand drive is limited [26]. - **Short - Fiber and Bottle - Grade Resin**: Short - fiber prices followed the raw materials' rebound. Bottle - grade resin is in the peak demand season, and pay attention to the raw materials and potential production cuts [27]. - **Glass**: Production and sales were affected by the holiday, and inventory increased. The market is weak, but be cautious about short - selling near the cost [28]. - **Soda Ash**: Supply pressure may ease in May due to maintenance. Do not be overly bearish in the short term, but look for short - selling opportunities on rebounds in the long term [30]. Agricultural Products - **Soybeans and Soybean Meal**: Short - term soybean supply is sufficient, but there are uncertainties in the long - term. Soybean meal futures may be stronger than the spot in the short term [31]. - **Soybean Oil and Palm Oil**: Palm oil may see inventory increases in April. The market is expected to oscillate in the long term [32]. - **Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil**: The rapeseed futures market fluctuated. Pay attention to trade policies and look for long - position opportunities [33]. - **Soybean No. 1**: The market oscillates. Pay attention to policy guidance [34]. - **Corn**: The market is volatile. Be cautious about chasing long positions and wait for new supply [35]. - **Hogs**: The supply is expected to increase in the future. Pay attention to the decline in spot prices [36]. - **Eggs**: The supply is expected to increase, and demand will enter the off - season. A bearish view is taken in the long term [37]. - **Cotton**: US cotton planting progresses smoothly. Domestic demand is in the off - season. Pay attention to Sino - US trade negotiations [38]. - **Sugar**: Brazilian production data is initially bearish. Domestic sugar may oscillate in the short term [39]. - **Apples**: The market focuses on new - season output estimates. The output may be lower than expected, but there is uncertainty [40]. - **Timber**: The market is weak. Supply and demand are both in the off - season [41]. - **Pulp**: Prices continue to decline. High inventory and weak demand, and the market is expected to remain weak [42]. Financial Products - **Stock Index**: A - shares rebounded, and the short - term risk preference may continue to repair. Technology stocks may be stronger [43]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bond futures oscillated. Domestic liquidity may improve, and the market may remain range - bound [44].

gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 国投期货研究院 【原油】 五一期间伦铝小幅回落。近期宏观想观情绪缓和,铝市去阵流畅,基本面偏强支撑铝价连续反弹, 但较高的行业利润继续扩大需要更强的铁口预期,贸易战阴霾下淡季需求前景难乐观,预计沪铝在 20000-20300元前期缺口区域将面临较强阻力。 【氧化铝】 近期氧化铝检修增加,产量阶段性降低,行业库存特降,不过一旦矿石继续下跌或者氧化铝价格连 续反弹,产能依然会大规模复产。长期过剩前景以及高位仓单库存限制价格反弹高度。当前盘面明 显贴水现货,前期低点附近或仍有支撑不宜追空,总体维持震荡趋势下逢高洁空思路。 【锌】 美4月非农就业人教培幅超预期,特朗普重申美联储应降低利率,伦锌微涨,趋势仍偏弱。美国消费 者信心指数连续5个月走低,盈加累计关税影响,国内商品出口压力大。美元走弱,人民币大幅升 值，进口较补充至国内预期强。短期下游消费节前阵存,淡季之下,高价锌缺乏支撑,维持反弹空 配看法。 【贵金属】 五一期间费金属先抑后扬宽幅震荡。美国经济数据密集公布喜忧参半,非农超预期给美联储提供了 保持耐心的空间。贸易战背景下美国经济前景仍有待时间验证,美联 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Operation ratings for different agricultural products: unclear ratings for "ななな" (soybean No.1), "女女女" (soybean meal), ☆☆☆ for soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, and corn; ★☆★ for pig and egg [1] Core Views - Short - term attention should be paid to the supply pattern change of imported soybeans from tight to loose, and also to policy and supply - demand changes [2] - The soybean meal futures may be strong in the short - term, and its upward momentum will weaken when Brazilian soybean procurement speeds up and North American weather risks decrease [3] - The prices of soybean oil and palm oil will fluctuate repeatedly due to factors such as low procurement progress of Chinese third - quarter soybean shipments and palm oil's production increase period [4] - The downward space of rapeseed meal is limited, and investors can pay attention to later long - position opportunities [6] - The corn futures continue to rise, and the market situation may expand after the domestic grain - right conversion is completed [7] - The pig futures are weak, and attention should be paid to the decline space of spot prices as the number and weight of pig slaughter increase [8] - The egg price is expected to be weak in the long - term due to factors such as seasonal decline and capacity release [9] Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean - The domestic soybean main contract significantly reduced positions before the holiday, and the reserve soybeans are still being released. After the May Day holiday, soybean supply will change from tight to loose, and short - term attention should be paid to policies and supply - demand [2] Soybean & Soybean Meal - Near the May Day holiday, soybean meal significantly reduced positions. After the holiday, the supply pattern will change, and attention should be paid to the pressure on spot and basis. The soybean meal futures may be strong in the short - term [3] Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - Before the May Day holiday, soybean oil and palm oil were relatively resistant to decline. After the holiday, attention should be paid to the pressure on soybean oil spot and basis. The prices of the two oils will fluctuate repeatedly [4] Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - After the May Day holiday, the soybean shortage situation will ease. The proportion of soybean meal in feed is expected to decrease. The domestic inventory of rapeseed products has declined, and the downward space of rapeseed meal is limited [6] Corn - Corn futures continue to rise. The port inventory pressure has decreased, and the downstream processing capacity has recovered. There are differences among traders, and the market situation may expand [7] Pig - The pig futures are weak, and the 11 - month contract hit a new low. The spot price is stable. The number and weight of pig slaughter are expected to increase, and attention should be paid to the decline of spot prices [8] Egg - The egg spot price is weak, and the futures price declined before the holiday. After the holiday, the demand will be weak, and the egg price is expected to be weak in the long - term [9]

| | | | Million | 国语期音 | 敏商品日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年04月30日 | | 棉花 | ★☆★ | 曹凯 首席分析师 | | 纸浆 | ★☆★ | F03095462 Z0017365 | | 白糖 | ☆☆☆ | 黄维 高级分析师 | | 苹果 | ☆☆☆ | F03096483 Z0017474 | | 木材 | ☆☆☆ | | | 天然橡胶 | ☆☆☆ | 胡华轩 高级分析师 | | 20号胶 | ☆☆☆ | F0285606 Z0003096 | | 丁二烯橡胶 ☆☆☆ | | | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【棉花&棉纱】 今天郑棉继续下跌,国产棉现货交投清淡;她棉纱市场交投气氛一般,纺企库存够有累积。国内内销数据表现尚可,外需面临 的挑战较大,关税对于纺服出口实质性影响仍未完全落地。目前市场关注的焦点仍在中美贸易战上,目前关于中美之间是否会 进行实质性谈判仍然不确定，再加上特朗普反复元常的政策，预期仍然不明朝。国内即将迎来五一假期 ...

| 《》 国投期货 | | 能源日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年04月30日 | | 原油 | ★☆★ | 高明宇 首席分析师 | | 燃料油 | ★☆★ | F0302201 Z0012038 | | 低硫燃料油 ★☆☆ | | 李祖智 中级分析师 | | 沥青 | ななな | F3063857 Z0016599 | | 液化石油气 ☆☆☆ | | 王盈敏 中级分析师 | | | | F3066912 Z0016785 | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【原油】 亚盘时段国际油价继续承压下行,SC06合约日内跌2.58%。市场关注焦点重回偏控供需前景,上周美国API原油 库存超预期增加376万桶。此前我们谈到中美贸易战无明确向好迹象前需求利多的演绎空间受限,供应端 OPEO+增登释放,以及俄乌、伊核、巴以地缘缓和带来的供应抗动风险弱化仍有边际演绎空间。假期期间关注美 伊核谈进展及5月5日OPEC+会议对6月增产速度的定调，继续持有低成本偏空期权组合对冲油价下行风险。 【燃炭 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Thread Steel**: ★★★, indicating a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - **Hot Rolled Coil**: ★★★, indicating a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - **Iron Ore**: ★★★, indicating a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - **Coke**: ★☆★, suggesting a short - term balanced state with poor operability on the current trading floor [1] - **Coking Coal**: ★☆★, suggesting a short - term balanced state with poor operability on the current trading floor [1] - **Silicon Manganese**: ★★☆, indicating a clear downward trend and the market is evolving [1] - **Silicon Iron**: ★★☆, indicating a clear downward trend and the market is evolving [1] Core Viewpoints - The overall market of the black metal industry is complex, with different products showing different trends. The short - term market is affected by factors such as supply and demand, policies, and inventory levels. Some products are expected to be volatile, while others are expected to show a weakening trend [1][2][5] Summary by Product Steel - The steel market is in a weak and volatile state. The apparent demand for thread steel has declined month - on - month, and the recovery lacks sustainability. The supply - demand of hot - rolled coils has stabilized. The iron - making water output has reached a high level, but the resumption of production will slow down significantly later. The manufacturing PMI has declined, and the real estate market is still weak. The market will be mainly in a weak and volatile state in the short term [1] Iron Ore - The iron ore market is slightly weaker. The global shipment has increased month - on - month, and the domestic arrival volume has rebounded. The port inventory has started to accumulate. Although the short - term demand is still high, the frequent news of crude steel production restrictions has dragged down the market from the expected level. It is expected to be volatile, with short - term price support and pressure from the decline of iron - making water output in the future [2] Coke - The coke price rebounded slightly at the end of the session due to position reduction. The second round of price increase was rejected, and the inventory is still at a high level. The supply of carbon elements is abundant, and the downstream iron - making water output has increased significantly. Attention should be paid to the evolution of steel exports [3] Coking Coal - The coking coal price rebounded slightly at the end of the session due to position reduction. The production of coking coal mines is gradually recovering, but the production has decreased slightly this week. The spot auction market has weakened, and the inventory pressure at the production end is high. It is expected to be in a weak and volatile state [5] Silicon Manganese - The price of silicon manganese has reached a new low this year. The port inventory of manganese ore has been increasing. The supply of silicon manganese has decreased, but the overall inventory has increased significantly, suppressing the price. It is recommended to short on rebounds [6] Silicon Iron - The price of the 2509 contract of silicon iron has reached a new low this year. The iron - making water output has increased, but the export demand and secondary demand are generally weak. The supply has decreased, the inventory has increased, and the fundamentals are weak. It is recommended to short on rebounds [7]