Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The report provides weekly views on various non - ferrous metals, analyzing their supply, demand, price trends, and investment opportunities, with different outlooks for each metal [1] Group 3: Summary by Metal Copper - **Supply**: Domestic supply is weak, with low tin ore processing fees and potential decline in copper exports from Peru to China in January. Overseas, Indonesia issued a 400,000 - ton copper concentrate export permit to Oman Mining. The mine may release some concentrate inventory in the short term [1] - **Demand**: Traditional consumption has limited price - setting demand under high - price pressure, but the spot - end adaptability has improved. The social inventory in China has increased to over 200,000 tons [1] - **Price and Trend**: Copper prices reaching new highs are supported by supply - demand fundamentals and high capital allocation interest. However, there is a risk of correction after reaching new highs due to concerns about high - price - suppressed consumption. Pay attention to the support of the 20 - day moving average [1] Aluminum and Alumina - **Supply**: Overseas bauxite trading is inactive. The operating capacity of domestic alumina is 9.0757 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 90,000 tons. The supply of alumina is in significant surplus [1] - **Demand**: The weekly average operating rate of domestic electrolytic aluminum downstream processing enterprises is 62.2%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.2% [1] - **Inventory and Price**: The social inventory of aluminum ingots increased by 100 tons to 627,000 tons, and that of aluminum rods decreased by 800 tons to 138,000 tons. The spot premium and discount in different regions have limited changes [1] - **Trend**: The market is mainly driven by macro factors, with a slightly stronger and volatile trend. There is a possibility of hitting the high point in November 2024, but be cautious about the upward space [1] Zinc - **Supply**: LME zinc inventory decreased to 35,300 tons. Domestic smelters have high smelting profits and are actively operating. The accident at the Australian Endeavor zinc - lead mine led to a significant decrease in domestic and overseas TC. Domestic zinc ingots are gradually being exported, and inventory may further decline [1] - **Demand**: The consumption in October was not strong. In November, demand has recovered slightly, but overall, there is an expectation of weakening consumption due to cold weather. The export data may be expected to improve [1] - **Trend**: The bottom support of Shanghai zinc is strong. Do not short - sell in the fourth quarter. The rebound high is in the range of 23,000 - 23,500 yuan/ton. Pay attention to cross - market reverse arbitrage opportunities [1] Lead - **Supply**: LME lead inventory decreased to 235,100 tons, and the proportion of cancelled warrants is as high as 67.5%. The domestic social inventory of lead decreased to 30,300 tons. The supply pressure is gradually increasing [1] - **Demand**: The demand for energy storage and data centers has exploded, and the orders for battery enterprises related to energy storage are stable. However, after the strong rise of Shanghai lead, the battery export prospects are not good [1] - **Trend**: The fundamentals are expected to weaken. Be vigilant about long - positions leaving at high prices. Track overseas inventory changes. The upward space of lead in the fourth quarter is restricted [1] Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Supply**: The inventory of pure nickel decreased by 700 tons to 48,800 tons, the inventory of nickel iron increased by 500 tons to 29,000 tons, and the inventory of stainless steel increased by 400 tons to 947,000 tons [1] - **Demand**: The stainless steel market confidence has been hit, and the downstream demand is weak [1] - **Trend**: The nickel market is in a weak operation, and the center of gravity tends to move down. Consider short - selling on rallies or right - side trading [1] Tin - **Supply**: Non - Chinese tin exports are affected by the rainy season and the closure of Dar es Salaam Port. The supply of domestic tin concentrate is substantially tight [1] - **Demand**: The demand in traditional fields is average. In October, there was some rigid - demand price - setting [1] - **Trend**: Tin prices are oscillating without a clear direction. Consider short - selling on rallies or right - side trading after a clear breakout [1] Lithium Carbonate - **Supply**: The total market inventory decreased by 3,000 tons to 127,000 tons. The inventory of smelters decreased by 1,600 tons to 32,000 tons, and the downstream inventory decreased by 2,000 tons to 53,000 tons [1] - **Demand**: The leading material factories are at full - production or over - production levels. The pure electric vehicle project is advancing, and the demand for energy - storage batteries is in short supply [1] - **Trend**: The futures price of lithium carbonate is strengthening, and the inventory is expected to increase. The market focuses on the sustainability of actual inventory reduction and policy increments. It is expected to be slightly stronger and volatile in the short term [1] Industrial Silicon - **Supply**: The supply side has a slowdown in the start - up rate in Xinjiang, and the start - up rates in Yunnan and Sichuan have decreased to below 54% due to the dry season. The production of polysilicon has decreased seasonally, and the overhauled organic silicon devices are gradually resuming production [1] - **Demand**: The demand for polysilicon has seasonal production reduction [1] - **Inventory**: The social inventory of industrial silicon is 558,000 tons, a weekly decrease of 1,000 tons [1] - **Trend**: The supply and demand are both weak. The disk is expected to remain firm, but the upward space is restricted by the uncertainty of polysilicon demand [1] Polysilicon - **Supply**: The output in October is expected to increase by 4,000 tons month - on - month. There are expectations of production reduction in the southwest dry season and a contraction in downstream wafer start - up [1] - **Demand**: The market is affected by policy expectations and fundamental realities. The demand is affected by the photovoltaic industry's performance improvement and policy expectations [1] - **Inventory**: The factory inventory has continued to increase to 261,000 tons, a weekly increase of 3,000 tons [1] - **Trend**: The market is in a game between policy expectations and fundamental realities. It is easy to rise and difficult to fall in the short - term sentiment, but be vigilant about the correction risk caused by policy non - implementation or insufficient spot follow - up [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the proportion of short positions in commodities has rebounded, mainly due to the decline in the factor strength of the black sector and the recovery in the agricultural products sector. Currently, the relatively strong sectors in the cross - section are non - ferrous metals and agricultural products, while the relatively weak ones are black metals and energy [3]. - The comprehensive signal for methanol this week is short, while for iron ore, it has turned to long, and for lead, it remains short, and for glass, it is long [4][13][15]. 3. Summary by Related Content Commodity Sector Analysis - **Black Sector**: The short - cycle momentum has declined. The positions of iron ore and rebar have decreased, indicating a cautious sentiment after the positive news is realized. Coking coal is relatively strong in the cross - section [3]. - **Non - ferrous Sector**: The position factor has marginally recovered, the long - cycle momentum continues to rise. Copper is relatively strong and alumina is relatively weak in the cross - section [3]. - **Energy and Chemical Sector**: The short - cycle momentum cross - section differentiation has expanded, and the chemical sector is at the short end of the cross - section [3]. - **Agricultural Products Sector**: There is a reversal in the cross - section. The short - cycle momentum of soybean oil has marginally decreased, while that of soybean meal has increased, and soybean meal is relatively strong in the short - term cross - section [3]. - **Precious Metals Sector**: The marginal time - series momentum of gold has recovered, the decline in the position of silver is small, and the differentiation at both ends of the cross - section has narrowed [3]. Strategy Net Value and Factor Analysis - **Methanol**: Last week, the supply factor increased by 0.98%, the demand factor decreased by 0.64%, the inventory factor decreased by 0.48%, and the synthetic factor weakened by 0.62%. The comprehensive signal this week is short. In terms of fundamental factors, the supply side is more bearish, the demand side is neutral to bearish, the inventory side is neutral, and the spread side is neutral [3][4]. - **Iron Ore**: Last week, the supply factor increased by 0.49%, the demand factor strengthened by 0.47%, the spread factor decreased by 0.09%, and the synthetic factor strengthened by 0.2%. The comprehensive signal this week is long. The supply side's bullish feedback has weakened, the demand side has turned to bullish feedback, the inventory side has turned to bullish feedback, and the spread side's bullish feedback has weakened [13]. - **Lead**: Last week, the supply factor increased by 0.49%, the demand factor strengthened by 0.47%, the spread factor decreased by 0.09%, and the synthetic factor strengthened by 0.2%. The comprehensive signal this week remains short. The supply side signal remains bearish, the inventory side signal remains neutral, and the spread side signal turns bearish [13]. - **Glass**: Last week, the inventory factor decreased by 0.05%, the spread factor weakened by 0.05%, and the synthetic factor decreased by 0.04%. The comprehensive signal this week is long. The supply side is neutral to bearish, the demand side is bullish, the inventory side remains bearish, and the spread side is bullish [15].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - term trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Aluminum: ★★★ [1] - Alumina: ★★★ [1] - Cast Aluminum Alloy: ★★★ [1] - Zinc: ★★★ [1] - Nickel and Stainless Steel: ★★★ [1] - Tin: ★★★ [1] - Lithium Carbonate: ★★★ [1] - Industrial Silicon: ★★★ [1] - Polysilicon: ★★★ [1] Core Viewpoints - The report analyzes the market conditions of various non - ferrous metals including copper, aluminum, zinc, etc., and provides short - term trend judgments and investment suggestions for each metal [1][2][3] Summary by Metal Copper - The open interest of Shanghai copper futures fell below the MA20 moving average. The US ISM manufacturing PMI has been shrinking for eight consecutive months, and high copper prices in China are suppressing demand. The copper price is expected to continue to correct after short - term high - level fluctuations. Short - term long positions are advised to exit and wait [1] Aluminum, Alumina, and Aluminum Alloy - The price of Shanghai aluminum declined. The social inventory of aluminum ingots increased by 0.80 thousand tons at the beginning of the week. The aluminum market is mainly driven by macro - sentiment, with limited resonance in fundamentals. It is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term. Cast aluminum alloy follows the aluminum price and has no independent market. Alumina has an oversupply situation, with limited rebound space [2] Zinc - The LME zinc inventory continued to decline, supporting the spot premium. The domestic zinc price was also supported by the decline in domestic and foreign TC. After the consumption peak season ended, the long - position funds took profits. The zinc price is expected to find support around 22,200 yuan/ton [3] Nickel and Stainless Steel - The price of Shanghai nickel fluctuated narrowly. The downstream demand was weak. The reduction in production by stainless - steel plants needs further observation. The price of pure nickel inventory decreased, while the inventory of nickel - iron and stainless steel increased. The price of Shanghai nickel is expected to move downward [6] Tin - The price of Shanghai tin fluctuated and closed lower. The domestic tin supply is in a real shortage. It is advisable to short on rallies or wait for a clear breakdown [7] Lithium Carbonate - The price of lithium carbonate fluctuated at a high level. The market supply and demand were strong. The total market inventory decreased. The price of Australian ore strengthened again. It is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [8] Industrial Silicon - The price of industrial silicon futures declined significantly, affected by the polysilicon market sentiment. The supply is shrinking, and the demand is also weakening. The short - term price will fluctuate, with limited upside space [9] Polysilicon - The price of polysilicon futures declined significantly. The inventory of polysilicon manufacturers continued to rise. The market is expected to enter a range - bound consolidation phase in the short term [10]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for precious metals is "★★★", indicating a clearer long - term trend and a relatively appropriate current investment opportunity [1] Core Viewpoints - Overnight, precious metals continued to fluctuate. The US October ISM Manufacturing PMI was 48.7, slightly lower than the expected 49.5 and the previous value of 49.1. With the Fed's internal differences, the US government shutdown, and the possible non - release of this week's non - farm payroll data, the market is waiting for new drivers, and precious metals are building a high - level oscillation platform, suggesting a temporary wait - and - see approach. Regarding silver, as the US dollar index rebounds, market risk appetite has weakened, and the gold - silver ratio may rise again [2] - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points to the 3.75% - 4.00% range last week, the second cut this year. However, Chairman Powell stated that "another rate cut is not a certainty", causing the probability of a December rate cut expected by traders to drop from nearly 100% a week ago to 65.3%, removing the interest - rate decline support for non - interest - bearing gold [2] - The doves advocate significant rate cuts, while the hawks are cautious about further rate cuts due to concerns about inflation and financial market risks. The market is in a "high - level interest - rate" stage, and gold prices face short - term callback risks due to uncertainties such as unclear Fed policies, data vacuum caused by the US government shutdown, and China's end of the gold tax - exemption policy [2][3]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: Neutral (White star) [1] - Pulp: Neutral (White star) [1] - Sugar: Neutral (White star) [1] - Apple: Slightly bearish (One star) [1] - Timber: Neutral (White star) [1] - 20 - rubber: Neutral (White star) [1] - Natural rubber: Bullish (Three stars) [1] - Butadiene rubber: Neutral (White star) [1] Core Views - The short - term trend of Zhengzhou cotton may be volatile, and it is advisable to wait and see for now [2] - Sugar prices are expected to remain weak, and attention should be paid to policy implementation and weather conditions [3] - Apple prices are high with insufficient bullish factors, and attention should be paid to the storage situation [4] - The rubber market sentiment is pessimistic, and it is advisable to wait and see while paying attention to cross - variety arbitrage opportunities [6] - The short - term fundamentals of pulp are weak, and mid - term conditions may improve; it is advisable to wait and see or conduct short - term operations [7] - Low inventory provides some support for log prices, and it is advisable to wait and see [8] Summary by Categories Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zhengzhou cotton declined today, and the spot sales basis of cotton remained stable. As of November 1, the cumulative national cotton inspection volume was 1.844 million tons. The spot trading was mediocre, and the downstream pure - cotton yarn followed the price increase weakly. The trading in the general cotton yarn market became dull. It is recommended to wait and see for now [2] Sugar - Overnight, US sugar fluctuated. In Brazil, the production data in the first half of October was neutral. In China, Zhengzhou sugar was relatively strong. There are expectations of syrup import control policies, and the market's trading focus has shifted to the next season's production estimate. Sugar prices are expected to remain weak [3] Apple - The futures price dropped significantly. The market's trading logic has shifted from cold - storage inventory volume to sales expectations. The inventory progress in Shandong is slow, and the initial cold - storage inventory of apples in the new season is uncertain. The high price and poor quality of apples this year may affect the destocking speed. It is recommended to wait and see [4] 20 - rubber, Natural rubber & Synthetic rubber - Today, RU, NR, and BR all declined. The domestic natural rubber spot price rose steadily, while the synthetic rubber spot price continued to fall. The global natural rubber supply has entered the high - yield period, and the domestic butadiene rubber plant operating rate declined significantly last week. The domestic tire operating rate increased slightly, and the finished - product inventory of tire enterprises continued to increase. Rubber inventory has increased, and it is recommended to wait and see while paying attention to cross - variety arbitrage opportunities [6] Pulp - Today, pulp futures declined slightly, and the spot prices remained stable. As of October 30, 2025, the mainstream import sample inventory of Chinese pulp was 2.061 million tons, a cumulative increase of 6,000 tons from the previous period. The domestic pulp import volume in September increased year - on - year. The short - term fundamentals are weak, and mid - term conditions may improve. It is advisable to wait and see or conduct short - term operations [7] Log - The futures price was weak. The supply of logs is expected to remain low in the short term, and the demand provides some support for prices. The total log inventory is low, and it is recommended to wait and see [8]

Report Overview - Report Title: Commodity Quantitative CTA Weekly Tracking [1] - Report Date: November 4, 2025 [2] - Report Author: Guotou Futures Research Institute, Financial Engineering Group [2] Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - This week, the proportion of short positions in commodities has rebounded, mainly due to the decline in the factor strength of the black sector and the rebound in agricultural products. Currently, the sectors with relatively strong cross - section are non - ferrous metals and agricultural products, while the relatively weak ones are black and energy sectors [3]. - The short - term momentum of the black sector has declined, with a decrease in the positions of iron ore and rebar, indicating a more cautious sentiment after the realization of positive factors [3]. - The cross - section of agricultural products has reversed, with the short - term momentum of soybean oil slightly decreasing and that of soybean meal increasing, and soybean meal is relatively strong in the short - term cross - section [3]. Summary by Related Content Commodity Market Conditions - **Sector Performance**: The cross - section of non - ferrous and agricultural sectors is strong, while the black and energy sectors are weak. Gold's time - series momentum has marginally rebounded, and the decline in silver's positions is small. In the non - ferrous sector, the position factor has marginally rebounded, and the long - term momentum continues to rise, with copper being strong and alumina being weak. In the black sector, coking coal is relatively strong in the cross - section. The short - term momentum cross - section of the energy - chemical sector has expanded, and the chemical sector is on the short side of the cross - section [3]. - **Factor Performance**: The supply factor increased by 0.98% last week, the demand factor decreased by 0.64%, the inventory factor decreased by 0.48%, and the synthetic factor weakened by 0.62%. This week, the comprehensive signal is short [4]. Specific Commodity Analysis Methanol - **Strategy Net Value**: Last week, the inventory factor decreased by 0.05%, the spread factor weakened by 0.05%, and the synthetic factor decreased by 0.04%. This week, the comprehensive signal is long [15]. - **Fundamental Factors**: The supply side is neutral to short, the demand side is long, the inventory side is short, and the spread side is long [15]. Iron Ore - **Strategy Net Value**: The supply factor increased by 0.49%, the demand factor strengthened by 0.47%, the spread factor decreased by 0.09%, and the synthetic factor strengthened by 0.2%. This week, the comprehensive signal remains short [13]. - **Fundamental Factors**: The supply side signal remains long, the demand side signal turns neutral, the inventory side signal remains neutral, and the spread side signal remains neutral [13]. Glass - **Strategy Net Value**: The supply factor increased slightly, the demand factor is long, the inventory factor is short, and the spread factor is long. This week, the comprehensive signal is long [15]. - **Fundamental Factors**: The supply side is neutral to short, the demand side is long, the inventory side is short, and the spread side is long [15].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Polypropylene, plastics, benzene, styrene, PTA, short - fiber, methanol, urea, glass: ☆☆☆ (white star, short - term multi/empty trend in a relatively balanced state, poor market operability, mainly for observation) [1] - Ethylene, propylene: ★★★ (three - star, clearer multi/empty trend, and relatively appropriate investment opportunities currently) [1] - Ethylene glycol, PVC, soda ash: ★☆☆ (one - star, biased towards multi/empty, with a driving force for price increase/decrease, but poor operability on the market) [1] Core Viewpoints - The main futures contracts of olefins and polyolefins closed down on the day. The spot and futures markets showed different trends. Propylene production enterprises may still have the intention to support prices, while polyethylene and polypropylene face supply increases and weak demand [2]. - The main futures contracts of pure benzene and styrene closed down on the day. Pure benzene has the pressure of high imports and falling demand, and styrene has high - inventory pressure [3]. - The prices of PX and PTA fluctuated and closed up on the day. Ethylene glycol continued to increase positions and decline with supply pressure. Short - fiber may face inventory accumulation in the future, and bottle - chip demand is weakening [5]. - The methanol market is under pressure from high imports and high inventories, and downstream demand is weak. The urea market is in a state of oversupply, with prices oscillating within a range [6]. - PVC is running at a low level due to high supply and weak demand. Caustic soda is expected to run at a low level, and its price may rise if liquid chlorine prices continue to fall [7]. - Soda ash prices are under pressure due to high supply and weakening demand. Glass prices are oscillating strongly, with cost support and potential for inventory reduction [8]. Summary by Directory Olefins - Polyolefins - The main futures contracts of olefins closed down. Spot - market propylene production enterprises may support prices. The production of polyethylene and polypropylene is increasing, while demand is weak [2]. Pure Benzene - Styrene - The price of pure benzene oscillated below 5500 yuan/ton. It is under pressure from high imports and falling demand. Styrene is under high - inventory pressure [3]. Polyester - PX and PTA prices fluctuated and closed up. Ethylene glycol continued to decline with supply pressure. Short - fiber may face inventory accumulation, and bottle - chip demand is weakening [5]. Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol prices continued to fall due to high imports and high inventories and weak downstream demand. Urea prices oscillated strongly, with agricultural demand providing some support but overall in an oversupply situation [6]. Chlor - Alkali - PVC is running at a low level due to high supply and weak demand. Caustic soda is expected to run at a low level, and its price may rise if liquid chlorine prices continue to fall [7]. Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash prices are under pressure due to high supply and weakening demand. Glass prices are oscillating strongly, with cost support and potential for inventory reduction [8]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Not specified [1] - Fuel oil: ★★★ (indicating a clearer long - term trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities) [1] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Not specified [1] - Asphalt: ★☆☆ (indicating a bullish/bearish bias, with a driving force for price movement but poor operability on the market) [1] - Liquefied petroleum gas: Not specified [1] Core Viewpoints - The oil market still faces medium - term surplus pressure, but short - term geopolitical risks exist. Short - term oil prices are expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to short - position configuration opportunities after geopolitical risks are repriced [1] - The absolute price of fuel oil fluctuates with crude oil. The supply pressure of low - sulfur fuel oil is expected to ease marginally, but the upward momentum is limited. The medium - term supply of high - sulfur fuel oil tends to be loose, and the crack spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oil is expected to widen further [2] - The asphalt market is bearish. The main contract has fallen, and the fundamentals show negative signals, with prices expected to decline under pressure [3] - The LPG market is expected to fluctuate mainly, as the upward trend has ended, and the fundamentals lack strong support factors while the cost - side guidance turns bearish [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Crude oil has shown a fluctuating trend this week. The OPEC+ meeting last Sunday slightly exceeded expectations by pausing production increases in Q1 2026, but the market supply - demand surplus is expected to expand marginally in Q4 2025 and Q1 2026. Short - term geopolitical risks around Russia and Venezuela still exist [1] Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - The absolute price of fuel oil fluctuates with crude oil. The supply pressure of low - sulfur fuel oil is expected to ease marginally due to unexpected shutdowns and shipment adjustments at some refineries, but the upward momentum is limited. The medium - term supply of high - sulfur fuel oil tends to be loose [2] Asphalt - The main asphalt contract fell 2% today. Construction in the north is declining, and the year - on - year change in the shipment volume of 54 asphalt sample enterprises has turned negative since late October. The decline in commercial inventory has slowed down, and social inventory has increased year - on - year for the first time at the end of October. Prices are expected to decline under pressure [3] Liquefied Petroleum Gas - The upward trend of the LPG market that started in mid - October has ended. The main contract fell 1.4% today, and the weekly LPG production volume has decreased. Chemical profit improvement has promoted demand growth, and the cooling weather has boosted combustion - end demand. The refinery storage rate has slightly decreased, while the full - storage rate has increased. The market is expected to fluctuate mainly [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread steel: ☆☆☆, indicating the short - term long/short trend is in a relatively balanced state, and the current market is less operable, suggesting to wait and see [1] - Hot - rolled coil: ☆☆☆, same as thread steel [1] - Iron ore: ★★★, representing a clearer long - term trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Coke: ☆☆☆, similar to the above balanced state [1] - Coking coal: ☆☆☆, also in a balanced state [1] - Silicon manganese: ☆☆☆, with low operability and a balanced trend [1] - Silicon iron: ☆☆☆, the same as the others [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - The steel market is under pressure in the short - term, with overall low - level range fluctuations. It is necessary to pay attention to demand changes and the progress of domestic demand stimulus policies as the off - season approaches [2] - The iron ore market is expected to fluctuate weakly at a high level, with the market starting to trade the reality of marginal relaxation of fundamentals [3] - The coke market has a third - round price increase expectation, but the steel's pressure on raw material prices is strong. Attention should be paid to safety production assessment information [4] - The coking coal market's price is not expected to decline continuously. Attention should be paid to the impact of safety supervision in major production areas [6] - The silicon manganese and silicon iron markets are likely to fluctuate within a narrow range [7][8] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - The steel futures market continued to decline. Thread steel's apparent demand improved, production increased, and inventory decreased. Hot - rolled coil demand remained good, production rose slightly, and inventory also decreased [2] - Iron - making water production declined from a high level, and the downstream's carrying capacity was insufficient. The negative feedback pressure in the industrial chain needs to be alleviated [2] - The real estate investment declined significantly, and the growth rates of infrastructure and manufacturing investment continued to fall. Domestic demand was weak, and the market sentiment was low [2] Iron Ore - The iron ore futures market weakened. Global shipments decreased, but were still at a high level. Domestic arrivals reached a new high this year, and port inventory continued to accumulate [3] - Last week, iron - making water production decreased significantly, and the steel mill profitability rate hit a new low this year. There is further production - cut pressure after entering the off - season [3] Coke - The coke price decreased during the day. There is an expectation of a third - round price increase, but the coking profit is average, and downstream demand is limited [4] Coking Coal - The coking coal price decreased. Some coal mines in Wuhai resumed production, but the price is not expected to decline continuously. The total inventory increased slightly [6] Silicon Manganese - The silicon manganese price fluctuated. Iron - making water production remained high, production decreased slightly, and inventory decreased slightly. The manganese ore price increased slightly [7] Silicon Iron - The silicon iron price fluctuated. Iron - making water production remained high, export demand increased to about 40,000 tons, and the supply was at a high level with inventory decreasing [8]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The report provides weekly viewpoints on various non - ferrous metals, analyzing their supply, demand, price trends, and suggesting corresponding investment strategies based on different market conditions [1] Summary by Metal Copper - **Viewpoint**: Copper prices hitting new highs are supported by supply - demand fundamentals and high capital allocation interest, but there is a risk of correction after reaching high levels due to concerns about high - price - suppressed consumption. It is recommended to pay attention to the support of the 20 - day moving average and hold some long positions based on it [1] - **Analysis**: Shanghai copper has a small discount, and Indonesia has issued an export permit for 400,000 tons of copper concentrate. The supply - demand situation is weak in China, with low processing fees for concentrates and possible slowdown in copper exports from Zambia to China. Overseas, there may be some release of concentrate inventory from a mine. There are different views among investment banks on copper prices [1] Aluminum and Alumina - **Viewpoint**: The market is mainly driven by macro factors and shows a strong and volatile trend. It is recommended to be cautious about the upward space of Shanghai aluminum in the short - term [1] - **Analysis**: The trading of overseas bauxite is quiet, and the domestic alumina production capacity has decreased slightly. The alumina market is in significant surplus. The domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity is stable, the downstream processing enterprise's operating rate has decreased slightly, and the inventory and spot situation are unremarkable [1] Zinc - **Viewpoint**: Pay attention to the reverse arbitrage in the zinc market. Do not short - sell zinc in the fourth quarter, and pay attention to the high - level range of 23,000 - 23,500 yuan/ton [1] - **Analysis**: Low inventory supports the strength of LME zinc, and the domestic zinc export window is open. The smelting profit of domestic smelters is high, and the demand for winter storage is strong. The consumption in October was weak, but there was a slight improvement in November. The overall consumption is expected to weaken, and the export data may be better [1] Lead - **Viewpoint**: Be vigilant about long - positions leaving at high levels. Monitor overseas inventory changes. The upward space of lead in the fourth quarter is restricted by fundamentals [1] - **Analysis**: The external market has risen, and the domestic market is short of supply. The LME zinc inventory has decreased, and the domestic social inventory has also decreased. The consumption of energy storage and data centers is strong, but the battery export outlook is not good. The supply pressure is increasing [1] Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Viewpoint**: The nickel market is in a weak operation, and it is recommended to short - sell on rallies or conduct right - side trading [1] - **Analysis**: The nickel market is in a long - position shock, and the stainless - steel market has rebounded. The downstream demand is weak, and the support from the upstream price rebound is weakening. The inventory of pure nickel has decreased, while the inventory of nickel iron and stainless steel has increased [1] Tin - **Viewpoint**: Tin prices are volatile and have certain support. It is recommended to short - sell on rallies or conduct right - side trading after a clear breakout [1] - **Analysis**: The supply of tin concentrates is tight, and the production is restricted by raw materials. The consumption in traditional fields is average, but there is some rigid - demand point - pricing. The inventory has decreased slightly in some statistics, and the LME inventory has increased slightly [1] Lithium Carbonate - **Viewpoint**: The futures price is in a strong and volatile trend in the short - term [1] - **Analysis**: The futures price has risen and then fallen, and the market is in a situation of strong supply and demand. The inventory of the whole market has decreased, and the price of Australian ore has strengthened [1] Industrial Silicon - **Viewpoint**: The supply and demand are both weak. The disk is expected to remain firm, but the upward space is restricted by the uncertainty of polysilicon demand [1] - **Analysis**: The production capacity growth in Xinjiang has slowed down, and the production in Yunnan and Sichuan has decreased due to the dry season. The inventory has decreased slightly [1] Polysilicon - **Viewpoint**: The market is in a game between policy expectations and fundamental realities. The short - term sentiment is easy to rise and difficult to fall, but there is a risk of correction. It is recommended to operate with a light position and pay close attention to policy trends [1] - **Analysis**: The futures price has broken through 55,000 yuan/ton. The production in October is expected to increase, and the supply and demand structure needs further observation. The factory inventory has increased, reflecting supply pressure [1]