Economic Overview - The actual GDP growth rate for the first three quarters is 4.8%, slightly below the annual target of around 5.0%[1] - The industrial added value has shown signs of recovery, while consumption remains at a low point, and fixed asset investment needs improvement[1] Policy Measures - Multiple macroeconomic policies have been implemented since the end of September, including interest rate cuts and increased local government debt quotas[2] - The People's Bank of China has initiated a swap facility to enhance liquidity for securities, funds, and insurance companies, with an initial operation scale of 500 billion yuan[6] Inflation and Monetary Supply - The CPI in September increased by 2.4% year-on-year, while the PPI decreased by 3.3%, indicating a widening gap in price levels[28] - M2 growth is at 6.8%, while M1 has decreased by 7.4%, reflecting ongoing challenges in market liquidity and demand[29] Industrial and Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment reached 37.90 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 3.4%, while private investment has declined by 0.2%[16] - Manufacturing investment grew by 9.2%, infrastructure investment by 9.3%, but real estate development investment fell by 10.1%[16] Trade Performance - In September, exports totaled 303.71 billion USD, a year-on-year increase of 2.4%, while total imports were 222.0 billion USD, up by 0.3%[22] - For the first three quarters, total exports reached 26,176.6 billion USD, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 4.3%[22] Employment and Corporate Profits - The unemployment rate in the U.S. has remained above 4.0% for four consecutive months, indicating a weakening labor market[3] - From January to September, profits of industrial enterprises fell by 3.5%, marking the first decline of the year[33]

Economic Overview - In September 2024, China's total import and export value reached $525.71 billion, a year-on-year increase of 1.5%[5] - The GDP for the first three quarters of 2024 was $94.97 trillion, with a year-on-year growth rate of 4.8%, slightly below the target of around 5.0%[10] - The M2 money supply increased by 6.8% year-on-year as of the end of September, while M1 decreased by 7.4%[5] Policy Developments - New policies to support the real estate market include the addition of 1 million units for urban village and dilapidated housing renovations, with a credit scale increase for "white list" projects to 4 trillion yuan by year-end[10] - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has initiated several monetary policy tools to stabilize the capital market, including a 0.5% reduction in the reserve requirement ratio and expected further cuts in the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) by 0.20% for 1-year and 0.25% for 5-year loans[10] Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.36%, while the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 2.95% during the week of October 14-20[32] - The average wholesale price of pork remained stable at 25.08 yuan/kg, while vegetable prices decreased to 5.79 yuan/kg and fruit prices slightly increased to 7.46 yuan/kg[17] International Context - The European Central Bank lowered its deposit facility rate from 3.50% to 3.25%, marking the third rate cut of the year, reflecting ongoing monetary easing in developed economies[8] - The UK’s inflation rate for September was reported at 1.7%, down from 2.2% in the previous month, influencing expectations for potential interest rate cuts by the Bank of England[8]

Group 1: Economic Policies - The Chinese government has fully allocated 700 billion yuan from the central budget for investment and issued 1 trillion yuan in special long-term bonds to local governments[5] - The Ministry of Finance announced a series of favorable incremental policies, including increasing local government debt limits and issuing special bonds to support state-owned banks[10] - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) established the Securities, Funds, and Insurance companies Swap Facility (SFISF) with an initial operation scale of 500 billion yuan to enhance liquidity management[8] Group 2: Inflation and Price Levels - In September, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.4% year-on-year, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points from August, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) fell by 2.8%, widening the decline by 1.0 percentage points[10] - The CPI increase was primarily driven by a 16.2% rise in pork prices, contributing approximately 0.21 percentage points to the CPI[15] - The PPI's decline was influenced by a 3.3% drop in production material prices, which accounted for about 2.41 percentage points of the PPI decrease[15] Group 3: Market Reactions - The stock market saw significant declines, with the Shanghai Composite Index dropping by 3.56% and the Shenzhen Component Index falling by 4.45%[41] - Conversely, government bond futures experienced gains, with the 2-year bond futures rising by 0.02% and the 30-year bond futures increasing by 1.94%[41] - The report anticipates a potential rebound in price levels in October due to favorable monetary and fiscal policies, alongside rising international oil prices[17]

Policy Changes - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) announced a reduction in the reserve requirement ratio by 0.5 percentage points, bringing the weighted average to approximately 6.6%[5] - The PBOC lowered the 7-day reverse repurchase rate from 1.70% to 1.50%, a decrease of 20 basis points[5] - A new monetary policy tool was introduced to support the stability of the stock market[5] Economic Indicators - From January to August 2023, profits of large-scale industrial enterprises totaled 4.65 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.5%, but down 15.79% compared to the same period in 2022[14][16] - The inventory of finished goods in large-scale industrial enterprises rose by 5.2% year-on-year as of the end of August 2023, indicating a continued trend of replenishment[14] Market Reactions - Major A-share indices saw significant increases, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 12.81% and the Shenzhen Component Index increasing by 17.83%[40] - The 2-year government bond futures fell by 0.09%, while the 30-year futures dropped by 3.85%[40] International Developments - The central banks of Sweden and Switzerland both reduced their policy rates by 25 basis points, with Sweden's rate now at 3.25% and Switzerland's at 1.00%[8][18] Commodity Prices - The wholesale price of pork decreased to 26.13 yuan/kg, while vegetable prices increased slightly to 6.46 yuan/kg[24] - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) rose to 2110 points, indicating an upward trend in shipping costs[32]

国信期货研究 Page 1 国信期货宏观季报 宏观 美联储开启降息周期 人行降准或购买国债更有效 2024 年 9 月 22 日 ⚫ 主要结论 综合来说，8 月国民经济总体平稳，结构性矛盾仍待改善。具体来看，8 月，规上工业增加值延续放缓，国有企业增幅仍不高；消费维持底部徘徊， 商品零售有较大拖累，餐饮增速有压力；固投总体不理想，民间投资年内首 次转负，房地产市场仍然不佳；出口补缺口步伐稳健，维持低基数下趋势性 恢复；新增人民币贷款回升以及政府债券发行加速，社融增量显著好转；物 价水平走势显分歧，M1 跌幅再次扩大。 美联储开启降息周期。北京时间 9 月 19 日凌晨，美联储发布利率决议声 明，降息 50 个基点。本次降息幅度较大，美联储更多地是向市场传达宽松政 策的决心，并以此继续推行"缩表"进程。美联储在"缩表"和降息之间进 行配合，或者说，美联储为了继续"缩表"，采取了相对较大的降息幅度。 关于美国经济，GDP 增速已经恢复至新冠疫情前的水平。目前并未有较为明 确的信号表明美国经济已经步入衰退，或者说，美联储降息幅度较大主要是 起到预防性作用。关于后期降息路径，预计美联储 2024 年内剩余的 2 次议 ...

| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |------------|-------|-----------------------------------------------|-------|------------------------------|-------| | 研究咨询部 | | | | | | | | | 国内经济结构性矛盾仍待改善 ——国信期货宏观周报 | | 海外美联储降息大概率本周兑现 | | | | | | | 2024-09-15 | | | | | | | | | 研究咨询部 1 周度回顾 3 大类资产 目 录 2 高频数据 CONTENTS 4 周度关注 研究咨询部 Part1 第一部分 =期货有限责任公 周度回顾 0909-0915 UOSEN . 1.1 周度回顾（0909-0915） 研究咨询部 ⚫ 9月9日，周一。根据国家统计局数据，2024年8月全国居民消费价格指数（CPI）同比上 涨0.6%，涨幅较7月回升0.1个百分点，连续7个月同比上涨；8月工业生产者出厂价格指 数（PPI）同比下跌1.8%，跌幅较7月扩大1.0个百分点，趋 ...

| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |------------|-----------------------------------------------|----------|------------------|-------|-------| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 研究咨询部 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 人行降准或净买国债仍可期 ——国信期货宏观周报 | 美联储 9 | 月降息幅度成焦点 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 2024-09-08 | | | | | | | | | | 研究咨询部 1 周度回顾 3 大类资产 目 录 2 高频数据 CONTENTS 4 周度关注 研究咨询部 Part1 第一部分 =期货有限责任公 周度回顾 0902-0908 1.1 周度回顾（0902-0908） 研究咨询部 ⚫ 周三，9月4日。根据加拿大央行消息，将政策利率由4.50%下调至4.25%，即降息25个 基点；这是加拿大 ...

Economic Indicators - From January to July, national general public budget revenue decreased by 2.6% year-on-year, while expenditure increased by 2.5%[5] - Government fund budget revenue fell by 18.5%, with state land use rights transfer income down by 22.3%[5] - The cumulative issuance of local government special bonds reached 2.57 trillion yuan, with an issuance progress of 66.0% against the annual quota of 3.9 trillion yuan[5] Market Operations - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) bought 400 billion yuan of special treasury bonds on August 29, 2024, and net purchased bonds worth 1000 billion yuan in total for the month[11][36] - The manufacturing PMI for August was 49.1%, down from 49.4% in July, indicating continued contraction in the manufacturing sector[11][36] Financial Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.43%, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 2.04% during the week[30] - The 2-year treasury futures increased by 0.15%, while the 30-year treasury futures decreased by 0.41%[30] Commodity Prices - Crude oil prices rose by 2.49%, while pork prices increased by 2.18%[32][33] - The average wholesale price of vegetables remained stable at 6.06 yuan/kg, while fruits saw a slight decline to 7.20 yuan/kg[14] Currency Movements - The onshore US dollar appreciated by 0.22% against the yuan, closing at 7.0920 on August 30[11] - The dollar index increased by 1.04%, while the onshore dollar fell by 0.68% against the yuan[32][33]

国信期货研究 Page 1 国信期货宏观月报 宏观 美联储 9 月大概率首降 25 基点 人民币或震荡偏强 2024 年 8 月 25 日 ⚫ 主要结论 综合来说，7 月国民经济总体平稳，但结构性矛盾仍未消除。7 月，出口 低基数下趋势性增长，物价水平局部改善；但是，规上工业增加值相对放缓， 消费底部徘徊，固投总体依然欠佳，M1 降幅再次扩大，价格型货币政策工具 效果欠佳，防范和化解系统性金融风险或是阶段性重点工作。美联储 9 月大 概率兑现降息，中美息差有望收窄，人民币或震荡偏强。 国内宏观经济仍有结构性矛盾。经济基本面，7 月，出口低基数下趋势 性增长，同比增长 7.0%；但是，7 月消费底部徘徊，同比增长 2.7%；1-7 月 规上工业增加值相对放缓，同比增长 5.1%；1-7 月固投总体依然欠佳，同比 增长 3.5%。核心指标方面，7 月，物价水平局部改善，CPI 同比上涨 0.5%， PPI 同比下跌 0.8%；货币供应总量相对稳定，但是 7 月 M1 同比跌幅继续扩大， 下降 6.6%；7 月制造业 PMI 表现不佳，官方和非官方均低于荣枯线，分别录 得 49.4%和 49.8%。 国信期货交易咨 ...

| --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------------------------|--------------------|----------------------------------|-----------| | | | | | | 研究咨询部 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 国内宏观经济仍有结构性矛盾 | ——国信期货宏观周报 | 海外美联储 9 月或首降 2024-08-18 | 25 个基点 | | | | | | 研究咨询部 1 周度回顾 3 大类资产 目 录 2 高频数据 CONTENTS 4 周度关注 研究咨询部 Part1 第一部分 =期货有限责任公 周度回顾 0812-0818 UOSEN 1.1 周度回顾（0812-0818） 研究咨询部 ⚫ 周二，8月13日。根据中国人民银行数据，7月末，广义货币（M2）同比增长6.3%，狭 义货币（M1）同比下降6.6%，流通中货币（M0）同比增长12.0%，前七个月净投放现 金5396亿元。7月末，社会融资规模存量同比增长8.2%；2024年前7个月社会融资规模 增 ...