/ 国信期货研究 Page 1 国信期货铁矿石月报 预期悲观 铁矿延续弱势 铁矿石 2025 年 4 月 27 日 主要结论 作者保证报告所采用的数据均来自合 规渠道， 分析逻辑基于本人的职业理 解，通过合理判断 并得出结论，力求 客观、公正，结论不受任何第三方的 授意、影响，特此声明。 独立性申明： 分析师：马钰 从业资格号：F03094736 投资咨询号：Z0020872 电话：021-55007766-305161 邮箱：15627@guosen.com.cn 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 以信为本 点石成金 2025 年 4 月份铁矿石走势偏弱，主力 09 合约弱势震荡下跌。4 月初，虽然 在季节性旺季，铁矿石现实供需情况延续强势，不过在粗钢压减政策预期带 动下，铁矿石回落到相对低位，同时越南等地区对中国钢材反倾销，美国特 朗普政府也传言对中国加征关税，铁矿石弱势震荡。随着特朗普宣布加征对 等关税，力度超出预期，市场情绪悲观，铁矿石快速下跌。不过铁矿石的供 需情况延续强势，供应端出现明显回落，铁水产量超预期走强，库存明显去 化，在悲观情绪释放后，铁矿石短线反弹。 4 月份铁矿石供应回落，主要是随着 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall supply of domestic cotton is stable with a projected slight increase in planting area, and the market focus is on consumption. The export situation is severe due to tariff hikes, and domestic consumption is in the off - season. Zhengzhou cotton (Zhengmian) is under pressure, and its performance is affected by macro - changes. If the trade situation improves, it may emerge from the weak trend. [1][27] - The global cotton market remains under pressure, with the USDA's April report increasing the global inventory. However, short - term consumption of US cotton is stimulated by Southeast Asian countries' rush to export, which supports the price of US cotton. The political uncertainty of the US president brings high market risks and uncertain impacts on the cotton market. [2][27] - The operation suggestion is to mainly conduct short - term trading in Zhengmian. [2][28] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - In April, Zhengmian experienced a cliff - like decline and then maintained weak oscillations. After the US unexpectedly increased tariffs on April 7, Zhengmian dropped with a gap, and the panic spread. On April 9, the main contract of Zhengmian reached a minimum of 12,490 yuan/ton and then oscillated at a low level. [5] - The international cotton market declined and then rebounded in April. After the US imposed reciprocal tariffs, the global trade situation was tense, and US cotton reached a minimum of 62.05 cents/pound on April 4. Then, as the market digested the negative impact and the trade situation improved, the price of US cotton rebounded and basically recovered the decline. [5] 2. Domestic Market Analysis 2.1 Weak Operating Rates - Due to the tense Sino - US trade situation, the textile and weaving industries suffered a severe blow in April. As of April 18, the operating rate of textile enterprises was 54.8%, remaining unchanged since February 28. The operating rate of weaving enterprises was 52.4%, slightly down 0.1 percentage points from the previous week and at the lowest level in five years. [7] - As of April 18, the yarn inventory of textile enterprises was 18.7 days, up 0.3 days from the previous week and down 5.1 days year - on - year. The finished - product inventory of weaving enterprises was 31.4 days, down 0.3 days from the previous week and up 4.5 days year - on - year. The inventory accumulation of both was obvious, with the weaving enterprises' inventory at a high level compared with the same period in previous years. [10] 2.2 Escalation of Sino - US Trade Conflicts - On April 2, 2025, Trump announced a national emergency and a series of tariff policies, including a 10% "minimum benchmark tariff" on all trading partners effective on April 5, and "reciprocal tariffs" of 10 - 50% on trade - deficit countries. The policy of canceling the "small - value exemption" for Chinese exports under $800 will take effect on May 2. [12] - China announced multiple counter - measures on April 4, including imposing a 34% tariff on all US imports from April 10, suing the US at the WTO, and taking other relevant measures. [13] - The US continued to threaten to increase tariffs on China, and China synchronously raised tariffs on US imports. Later, the US tried to ease the international pressure, and both sides showed signs of potential negotiation. [14][15] - Compared with the 2018 trade war, the scope of this tariff measure is wider, hitting all trading partners. The US also imposed high tariffs on Southeast Asian countries, with comprehensive tax rates on some goods exceeding 60%, affecting their代工 economy. [16][17] - New models of trans - shipment trade are expected to emerge. Chinese enterprises can set up factories in Mexico through the USMCA to reduce tariffs, and African countries' cotton - related industrial parks enjoy zero - tariff treatment under the AGOA. [18] - The deterioration of the trade situation has a negative impact on the domestic and international cotton markets. China's textile and clothing exports to the US may see a sharp decline, and China's imports of US cotton are likely to stop. [19] 3. International Market Analysis 3.1 Weak Global Production and Consumption with a Slight Increase in Inventory - According to the USDA's April cotton supply - demand report, global cotton production, consumption, and trade volume are all declining, while the inventory is increasing. The global total output decreased by 69,000 bales, consumption decreased by 520,000 bales, and the monthly import volume declined. The global ending inventory in the 2024/25 season increased by more than 520,000 bales. [21][23] 3.2 Stronger US Cotton Exports with Southeast Asian Countries' Rush to Export - During the 90 - day suspension period of the "reciprocal tariff" given by the US government, Southeast Asian countries may make concessions in tariffs. Southeast Asian yarn mills and cotton trading enterprises are rushing to export, which stimulates short - term US cotton consumption. [25] - As of April 10, 2024/25, the total signed sales volume of US upland cotton and Pima cotton was 2.527 million tons, accounting for 107% of the annual predicted total export volume, and the cumulative export shipment volume was 1.674 million tons, accounting for 66% of the total annual signed volume. [25]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The non - ferrous metals market is in a resonance period of "black swan shocks" and "gray rhino risks". After the short - term emotional impact of the trade war, the low domestic inventory, policy support, industrial resilience, and long - term scarcity of resources will limit the downside space. In May, there is a risk of the demand side transitioning to the off - season. It is necessary to pay attention to the impact of domestic macro - favorable policy expectations on prices and the phased support effect on demand. It is expected that Shanghai Aluminum will fluctuate strongly, with the price range between 19,000 - 21,000 yuan/ton. For alumina, it is expected to continue box - type fluctuations, with the price range between 2,700 - 3,200 yuan/ton [3][4][148]. - The US tariff policy is in a game stage, with uncertainties in the final implementation scope and impact. The negative impacts such as increased trade costs and decreased demand are relatively certain, which will suppress the overall non - ferrous metal prices in the medium and long term [3][146]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review 3.1.1 Alumina - In April, alumina prices bottomed out and then rebounded. The price dropped continuously from April 1st - 8th, hitting a low of 2,663 yuan/ton, and then rebounded on April 9th due to supply - side production cuts and potential risks at the mine end. However, the over - supply expectation limited the rebound height. As of April 25th, the main alumina contract 2509 closed at 2,846 yuan/ton, down 3.07% from March 31st [6][7]. 3.1.2 Shanghai Aluminum - In April, Trump's tariff policy affected aluminum prices. After the unexpected tariff policy was introduced, the non - ferrous market tumbled, and then rebounded after the delay of tariffs on some countries. Aluminum prices showed certain resilience, with the price briefly hitting a low of 19,000 yuan/ton on April 7th and then rising. As of April 25th, the main Shanghai Aluminum contract 2506 closed at 20,030 yuan/ton, down 2.2% from March 31st [9][11][13]. 3.2 Macro Hotspot Tracking 3.2.1 Interest Rate Cut Path Impacted by Tariff Policy - In the first quarter of 2025, the Fed maintained the federal funds target rate unchanged. After the release of inflation data in February, the market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cuts decreased. In March, the inflation data cooled unexpectedly, increasing the market's expectation of interest rate cuts. After the release of the CPI data in March, the market almost fully priced in a Fed interest rate cut in June, but Fed officials emphasized controlling inflation and were not eager to cut interest rates in the short term. Trump pressured the Fed to cut interest rates immediately, and the path of interest rate cuts will be greatly affected by the tariff policy [19][20][24]. 3.2.2 Trump's Tariff Policy - In April, Trump introduced a new round of more comprehensive and far - reaching tariff policies, which had a negative impact on the market. China countered by imposing a 34% tariff on all imported goods from the US. Then Trump postponed the tariffs on non - retaliatory countries for 90 days and exempted some electronic products. The trade war between China and the US escalated, and the tariff policy will lead to a decline in global demand and economic growth, affecting the prices of non - ferrous metals. China's aluminum exports to the US will be affected, and the export demand is expected to decline [25][26][29]. 3.2.3 Domestic Macro Data - In March, China's manufacturing PMI was 50.5%, up 0.3 percentage points from the previous month; the non - manufacturing business activity index was 50.8%, up 0.4 percentage points; the comprehensive PMI output index was 51.4%, up 0.3 percentage points. The consumer price index decreased year - on - year and month - on - month. The industrial producer price index also decreased. The growth rate of M2 and M1 decreased. Social consumption, industrial added value, and GDP all showed growth [31][32][36]. 3.3 Aluminum Market Analysis 3.3.1 Alumina - **Raw Material Supply**: In March, China's aluminum ore imports increased significantly, with imports from Guinea reaching a record high. In April, there was a potential supply risk at a mine in Guinea, but it had little impact. The arrival volume of bauxite is expected to increase in May - June. Overall, the supply of bauxite is expected to continue to increase [41][42][44]. - **Cost and Profit**: In April, the alumina cost continued to decline, but the price fell faster, and the industry's average loss increased. The cost is mainly affected by bauxite prices, which are expected to decline but with limited space. The industry's profit recovery depends more on supply - side adjustments. If the cumulative production cuts increase in May, the industry's loss pressure may be alleviated [45][48][54]. - **Supply**: In April, production cuts, restarts, and new capacity releases coexisted. The production cut scale expanded, giving the futures price upward momentum, but the long - term over - supply expectation remained unchanged, suppressing the price rebound. The overall supply of alumina is expected to increase in the future, and it is necessary to pay attention to the capacity operation in high - cost areas and the release speed of new capacity [55][60][61]. - **Demand**: Domestic demand for alumina is relatively stable, while export demand is weakening. Overseas alumina production has increased, and the price has decreased, narrowing the price difference between domestic and foreign markets. It is expected that the future export data will decline, and the overall supply of alumina will exceed demand [62][66][69]. - **Spot Market**: In April, the bearish sentiment in the alumina spot market eased slightly, and the price rebounded in the middle and late April due to production cuts. The price in the north may rebound, while the price in the south is expected to be stable. The rebound space of the spot price is limited [72][75][78]. - **Futures Inventory**: Since April, the total alumina futures inventory has fluctuated between 200,000 - 300,000 tons, at a relatively high level in history [81]. 3.3.2 Aluminum - **Cost and Profit**: In April, the electrolytic aluminum smelting cost decreased due to the decline in alumina and electricity prices. The industry's average profit narrowed but remained at a high level. In May, the cost is expected to fluctuate slightly, and the industry profit is expected to remain above 3,000 yuan/ton [84][88]. - **Supply**: In March - April, the domestic electrolytic aluminum supply remained strong. The capacity utilization rate was high, and the output increased year - on - year. Overseas production also increased. In April, the import loss narrowed, and the import volume is expected to decline [92][94]. - **Inventory**: In April, the aluminum ingot inventory continued to decline due to the peak consumption season and the increase in the aluminum - water ratio. In May, the inventory decline rate may slow down, and the support for aluminum prices will weaken [100][103]. - **Demand**: In April, the peak demand season continued, and the aluminum price was resilient. However, from May, the domestic demand will enter a four - month off - season, and the export demand is weak. The downstream processing enterprise's start - up rate was above 60%, with differences among different sectors. Macro - policies are expected to support the long - term aluminum consumption [111][115]. - **End - use Demand**: - **Real Estate**: In March, the real estate development climate index increased, but the investment, construction, and sales data were still negative. The demand for aluminum in the real estate sector remained weak [116][117]. - **Home Appliances**: The "trade - in" policy promoted home appliance consumption and aluminum demand. However, the export demand is expected to decline due to the tariff policy. The industry's growth rate will slow down, and the competition will intensify [120][125][129]. - **Automobiles**: In March, automobile production and sales increased year - on - year. Trump's tariff policy on automobiles has an uncertain impact, but the overall demand may be negatively affected. The new energy vehicle export is not overly pessimistic, and the aluminum demand in the automobile sector is expected to continue to increase [130][132]. - **Photovoltaic**: In the first quarter, the photovoltaic industry had a "rush - installation" period, driving up the demand for aluminum. However, after the window period, the demand for aluminum in the photovoltaic sector is expected to decline. Grid investment is expected to increase, which will benefit the demand for aluminum cables [137][139][140]. - **Export**: In March, China's aluminum exports decreased year - on - year. Affected by the cancellation of export tax rebates and tariff policies, the export volume is expected to continue to decline in April [141]. 3.4 Outlook - **Alumina**: Cost support and production cuts will give short - term upward momentum to the alumina price, but in the medium and long term, it will be under pressure due to over - supply. It is expected to continue box - type fluctuations, with a price range of 2,700 - 3,200 yuan/ton [83][144][145]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The US tariff policy is uncertain, but it will suppress non - ferrous metal prices in the medium and long term. The electrolytic aluminum industry profit is expected to remain high. The supply is strong, but the demand will weaken in the medium term. It is expected that Shanghai Aluminum will fluctuate strongly, with a price range of 19,000 - 21,000 yuan/ton [146][147][148].

国信期货研究 Page 1 国信期货油脂油料月报 春播逐步展开 美豆天气溢价或现 油脂油料 2025 年 4 月 27 日 蛋白粕方面，5月南美市场进入收割季，巴西、阿根廷大豆产量调整空间 不大。由于种植利润可观，巴西农民积极销售，经过4月升贴水回落后，5月巴 西升贴水底部或现，市场区间波动，并有上涨的可能。南美大豆市场对于国际 大豆价格的影响边际效应递减。5月CBOT大豆市场关注焦点从南美转向北美。 从天气预报来看，5月美国产区面临高温的局面，降雨则表现出先多后少的局 面。春播可能会受到影响。5月首度公布的25/26年度供求平衡表成为市场关注 的焦点。美国关税政策的走向则直接影响25/26年美豆出口的多寡。美豆25/26 年度供需是否偏紧则需要关注出口的调整。从目前来看，天气溢价炒作或有增 加，美豆或呈现区间震荡偏强的局面。国内豆粕5月供给前紧后松，油厂开工 恢复或要等到5月中旬左右，5月豆粕库存有回升的预期。豆粕现货、基差承压。 连粕市场在3000-3200之间区间偏强震荡运行。如能出现明显回调，回调买入 等待未来天气溢价的出现。 国信期货交易咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2012】116号 油脂方面，5月美 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - On April 24, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai nickel, 2506, closed at 125,770 yuan/ton. The nickel price showed a trend of first falling and then oscillating upwards this month [2]. - In the US, the business activity in April dropped to a 16 - month low, while prices rose significantly. The market anticipates the Fed's next rate cut may be in June, depending on employment and inflation data [2]. - In China, the Q1 GDP grew by 5.4% year - on - year, and various economic indicators showed a good recovery trend. It is expected that the Politburo meeting may introduce a series of incremental policies [3]. - Due to the unexpectedly high US counter - tariffs at the beginning of the month, Shanghai nickel dropped with a gap and is in a low - level upward repair phase this month. The spot trading of refined nickel was good this week. Nickel ore supply is loose, and nickel - iron prices have decreased. Sulfuric acid nickel prices are weak, and downstream demand has not improved significantly. Stainless steel export orders are recovering, but orders for exports to the US are nearly stagnant. The medium - and long - term demand improvement needs further data verification [4][46]. - Before obvious favorable policies are introduced, Shanghai nickel and stainless steel are expected to show a range - bound trend, with limited downside space [47]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - In April 2025, nickel showed an oscillating trend, first hitting the bottom and then rebounding. The nickel futures price opened lower with a gap due to US tariff shocks and then quickly recovered, with the lowest point around 115,000 [8]. 2. Fundamental Analysis 2.1 Supply - side Analysis - LME and SHFE nickel inventories have been rising steadily since the second half of 2023. As of late April 2025, SHFE inventory was 30,332 tons, and LME inventory was 203,850 tons. As of April 18, 2025, the nickel port inventory was 4.021 million tons [11][13]. - China's imports of nickel ore sand and concentrates from the Philippines fluctuate seasonally [13]. - The prices of domestic and imported electrolytic nickel have been weakly oscillating since the beginning of this year, and closed at around 126,310 yuan/ton in early April [18]. - As of April 18, 2025, the price of sulfuric acid nickel dropped to 29,280 yuan/ton [20]. - On April 24, 2025, the Fubao price of nickel - iron (8% - 12%) was 1,000 yuan/nickel [26]. 2.2 Demand - side Analysis - The stainless - steel futures price opened lower with a gap due to the tariff storm and is currently oscillating at a low level, with the oscillation range expected to be between 12,500 yuan/ton and 13,500 yuan/ton [30]. - As of April 18, 2025, the inventories of 300 - series stainless steel in Wuxi and Foshan were 501,600 tons and 190,400 tons respectively [32]. - The report also presented data on the production of power and energy - storage batteries, as well as new - energy vehicle production, but specific analysis of their impact on demand was not provided [37][42]. 3. Future Outlook - The market is in a low - level upward repair phase due to tariff impacts. Pay attention to the Politburo meeting. If strong stimulus policies are introduced, they may guide the short - and medium - term market trends [46]. - Before obvious favorable policies, Shanghai nickel and stainless steel will mainly show a range - bound trend with limited downside [47].

国信期货研究 Page 1 国信期货玉米月报 供应趋于偏紧 后市震荡偏强 玉米 2025 年 04 月 25 日 主要结论 综上所述，目前基层余粮见底，玉米及替代性能量原料进口量大幅减少，使 得供应压力逐步减轻；需求端来看，饲料需求有所恢复，深加工消费增长有限， 但总消费仍将增长。结合全渠道库存、进口、消费来看，国内玉米自身供需面偏 紧，需要寻求外源性替代品补充。同时，尽管目前小麦丰产预期仍较强，但今年 最低收购价格上调，小麦不大可能通过大幅下跌，将小麦与玉米价差打至极端低 位，去大幅挤占玉米的市场份额。因此，预计后期玉米震荡偏强运行。操作上， 逢低滚多做多为主。 国信期货交易咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2012】116 号 分析师：覃多贵 从业资格号：F3067313 投资咨询号：Z0014857 电话：021-55007766-6671 邮箱：15580@guosen.com.cn 作者保证报告所采用的数据均来自合 规渠道， 分析逻辑基于本人的职业理 解，通过合理判断并得出结论，力求 客观、公正，结论不受任何第三方的 授意、影响，特此声明。 独立性申明： 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 以信为本 点石成金 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - In April, the spot market for live pigs rose, boosted by China's increased tariffs on imported soybeans, corn, and meat products from the US and the rising enthusiasm for secondary fattening. The futures market first rose and then adjusted, with the overall center of gravity higher than in March. The LH07 contract was significantly weaker than other contracts due to concerns about increased supply pressure in July. Based on the official data of breeding sows and piglet birth data, the theoretical slaughter volume in the second and third quarters of 2025 is expected to remain high. With the active entry of secondary fattening in late April, attention should be paid to the pressure of live inventory destocking. The market should be treated with a shock perspective, and attention should be paid to the opportunity of selling high and buying low between July and September contracts [1][3][24]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - In April, the live pig spot market rose, and the futures market first rose and then adjusted, with the overall center of gravity higher than in March. The LH05 contract converged to the spot price as it approached delivery, causing the basis to weaken and the LH5 - LH7 spread to widen significantly. The LH07 contract was weaker due to concerns about increased supply in July [3]. 2. Pig Industry Dynamics - **Shrinking Pig Production Capacity**: As of the first quarter, the national inventory of breeding sows was 40.39 million, a year - on - year increase of 470,000 (1.2%) but a slight month - on - month decrease. It was 103.5% of the target inventory of 39 million, close to the upper - middle range of the green and reasonable production capacity regulation area. Considering the low profit of pig prices, the pig production capacity is expected to remain stable with a slight decline [5]. - **Adequate Theoretical Supply in the Second and Third Quarters**: Since August last year, the number of piglets born in sample enterprises has continued to increase month - on - month. In 2025, the number of piglets born has increased month - on - month, indicating sufficient supply and high theoretical slaughter volume in the second and third quarters [8]. - **High Inventory Indicated by Feed Production and Sales**: In March, the production and sales of piglet feed increased month - on - month, slightly lower than the seasonal growth rate. The production of fattening pig feed in March showed normal seasonal growth. Considering the lower decline from December to February compared with previous years, the pig inventory is still high [10]. - **Accumulating Live Inventory and Attention to Destocking Rhythm**: Since April, the price difference between fat and standard pigs has continued to decline, and the average weight after slaughter has returned to a level close to last year. With the passive entry of secondary fattening and the increase in the utilization rate of fattening houses, attention should be paid to the live inventory destocking rhythm and potential supply pressure when the temperature rises [13]. - **Relatively Stable Slaughter and Frozen Product Inventory Reaching Last Year's Level**: In April, the slaughter volume of domestic sample enterprises was relatively stable compared with the previous month and slightly increased year - on - year. The slaughter gross profit in April declined compared with the previous month but was better than last year. The demand is slightly better than the same period last year. The frozen product inventory has approached last year's level [17][19]. - **Increased Piglet Cost and Higher Out - of - Pen Cost for Purchased Piglets**: After the Spring Festival, pig prices fluctuated at a low level and slightly rose in late April, with the breeding profit remaining at a small profit level. Since January, the continuous increase in piglet prices has led to a significant increase in the out - of - pen cost for purchased piglets. The theoretical out - of - pen cost for purchased piglets will rise to the range of 15 - 16 yuan/kg [22]. 3. Conclusion and Market Outlook - The situation in April was similar to the core viewpoints. The market should be treated with a shock perspective, and attention should be paid to the opportunity of selling high and buying low between July and September contracts [24][25].

Group 1: Report Title and Date - The report is titled "Short-term Impact, Slow Recovery - Guoxin Futures Non-ferrous (Nickel) Weekly Report" dated April 20, 2025 [2][3] Group 2: Table of Contents - The report includes sections on market review, fundamental analysis, and future outlook [4] Group 3: Market Review - This section likely focuses on the historical price trends of nickel futures' main contracts, as indicated by the y - axis of the graph showing nickel futures closing prices (main contract) from 2020 to 2025 [7][8] Group 4: Fundamental Analysis Upstream - The upstream analysis focuses on China's nickel ore port inventory and the monthly import volume of nickel ore sand and concentrates from the Philippines [12][13] Midstream - Midstream analysis covers electrolytic nickel prices, nickel sulfate prices, nickel - iron monthly import volume, and the Fubao price of 8 - 12% nickel - iron [15][17][19] Downstream - Downstream analysis includes stainless - steel prices, stainless - steel futures positions, Wuxi stainless - steel inventory, power and energy - storage battery production, and new - energy vehicle production [21][23][25][28][30] Group 5: Future Outlook Macroeconomic Situation - In the US, Fed Chair Powell said that the announced tariff hikes will push up inflation and suppress economic growth, and the Fed will prioritize inflation control. The market expects the Fed to start cutting interest rates in June, and the Fed won't intervene in the recent sharp fluctuations in the US stock market. In China, the Q1 GDP grew by 5.4% year - on - year, social consumer goods retail sales increased by 4.6% year - on - year, and high - tech manufacturing and IT service industries showed strong growth. Private investment turned positive [36] Nickel Market - The Shanghai nickel futures showed an upward trend this week, a recovery from last week's sharp drop. Spot trading of refined nickel was good this week. With the end of the rainy season in the Philippines, nickel ore supply is abundant, and nickel - iron prices have declined. Nickel sulfate prices are weak, and salt plants are in the red. Stainless - steel export orders have recovered well, but orders for US - bound products are almost at a standstill. The expected operating range for the Shanghai nickel main contract is 115,000 - 134,000 yuan/ton, and for the stainless - steel main contract is 12,400 - 13,600 yuan/ton [36]

国信期货研究所 供需略有改善 宏观压力仍存 ----国信期货螺纹钢周报 2025年4月20日 国信期货研究所 目 录 CONTENTS 4 后市展望 1 螺纹钢期货行情回顾 2 期货市场环境：宏观、比价、基差 3 螺纹钢供需概况 国信期货研究所 第 一部 P a rt 分 1 螺纹钢期货行情回顾 1.1 近期重要信息概览 国信期货研究所 经济数据 数据来源：WIND 国信期货 Mysteel 免责声明：本报告以投资者教育为目的，不构成任何投资建议。 4 1. 国家统计局数据显示，2025年1—3月份，全国固定资产投资103174亿元，同比增长4.2%，增速比1—2月份加快0.1个百分点。其中第三产业 中基础设施投资同比增长5.8%，较上月加快0.2个百分点。综合金融数据表现，目前政府加杠杆仍是支撑有效需求的重要手段，固定资产投 资与基建投资的稳步增长。 2. 国家统计局数据显示，1—3月份，全国房地产开发投资19904亿元，同比下降9.9%，降幅扩大0.1个百分点。1—3月份，房地产开发企业房屋 施工面积613705万平方米，同比下降9.5%。其中，住宅施工面积427237万平方米，下降9.9%。房屋新开工面 ...

——国信期货焦煤焦炭周报 2025年4月20日 国信期货研究所 国信期货研究所 焦企库存小幅累积 盘面震荡为主 双焦行情回顾 国信期货研究所 双焦主力合约本周行情回顾 数据来源：文华财经 免责声明：本报告以投资者教育为目的，不构成任何投资建议。 4 目 录 CONTENTS 国信期货研究所 1 双焦行情回顾 2 焦煤基本面概况 3 焦炭基本面概况 4 双焦后市展望 国信期货研究所 P 第 a 一 r 部 t 分 1 行情回顾 P 第 a 二 r 部 t 分 2 焦煤基本面概况 焦煤产量 国信期货研究所 高频数据显示，截至本周五，样本洗煤厂开工率61.9%，周环比减少0.7%，产地因换工作面以及安全因素限产煤矿 较多，洗煤厂开工小幅下滑。 数据来源：WIND,MYSTEEL 6 数据来源：文华财经 国信期货研究所 焦煤进口 国信期货研究所 海关总署数据显示，2025年1-2月，我国累计进口焦煤1884.55万吨，同比增长5.34%。分国别来看，蒙古、俄罗斯，加拿大、 美国、澳大利亚、印尼是我国焦煤的主要进口来源国。其中蒙煤进口占比34.19%，俄罗斯焦煤进口占比28.07%。去年四季 度美煤价格回落，性价比凸显 ...