碳 酸 锂 ¤ 评20250512：国内碳酸锂5月供给预期偏松,中美关税谈判取得初步成果 | | | 交易日期(日) | 2025-05-09 | 2025-05-08 | 2025-04-30 | 较昨日变化 | 近两周走势 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 近月合约 | 收盘价 | 63040.00 | 64500.00 | 65680.00 | -1.460.00 | | | | 连一合约 | 收盘价 | 63100.00 | 64280.00 | 65880.00 | -1.180.00 | | | | 连二合约 | 收盘价 | 64160.00 | 65240.00 | 65960.00 | -1,080.00 | | | | 连三合约 | 收盘价 | 64160.00 | 65240.00 | 67060.00 | -1,080.00 | | | | | 收盘价 | 63020.00 | 64280.00 | 65960.00 | -1,260.00 | | | 碳酸锂期货 | 活跃合约 | 成交量(手) | 28940 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - For lead, the raw material shortage problem remains unsolved, with some secondary lead smelters reducing production due to insufficient raw materials. The demand is in the off - season. Cost support and weak demand are in a tug - of - war. Short - term lead prices are expected to fluctuate widely, and subsequent macro uncertainties should be continuously monitored [1]. - For zinc, the macro sentiment is stable and positive, but the fundamentals of Shanghai zinc are weak. Short - term zinc prices are expected to fluctuate widely. In the medium - to - long - term, TC has room for further increase, and the center of zinc prices may shift downward. Subsequent macro sentiment disturbances should be continuously monitored [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Lead - **Price and Market Data**: The average price of SMM1 lead ingots remained flat compared to the previous day, and the closing price of the main Shanghai lead contract rose 0.18% from the previous day. The LME3 - month lead futures closing price (electronic trading) rose 1.90% to $1,981.50 per ton, and the Shanghai - London lead price ratio decreased 1.69% to 8.48. The trading volume of the active futures contract decreased 27.04% to 28,955 lots, and the open interest decreased 2.70% to 33,454 lots. The LME inventory remained unchanged at 253,425 tons, and the Shanghai lead warrant inventory decreased 2.42% to 38,966 tons [1]. - **Supply and Demand**: In the week of May 9, the weekly operating rate of SMM primary lead enterprises was 67.35%, a slight decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the previous week; the weekly operating rate of secondary lead enterprises was 37.65%, a significant decrease of 4.81 percentage points from the previous week; the weekly operating rate of lead - acid battery enterprises was 64.79%, an increase of 9.73 percentage points from the previous week. An enterprise in East China stopped production due to raw material shortage and loss pressure, affecting a production volume of about 200 tons per day. Another small - scale enterprise postponed its resumption plan to mid - to - late May due to poor market trends [1]. Zinc - **Price and Market Data**: The average price of SMM1 zinc ingots decreased 0.35% compared to the previous day, and the main Shanghai zinc contract closed up 0.07%. The premium of zinc ingots in Shanghai, Tianjin, and Guangdong decreased by 20 yuan/ton. The LME3 - month zinc futures closing price (electronic trading) rose 1.32% to $2,653.50 per ton, and the Shanghai - London zinc price ratio decreased 1.23% to 8.36. The trading volume of the active futures contract decreased 36.95% to 140,017 lots, and the open interest decreased 0.61% to 119,170 lots. The LME inventory remained unchanged at 170,325 tons, and the Shanghai zinc warrant inventory decreased 7.31% to 1,903 tons [1]. - **Supply and Demand**: In the week of May 9, the weekly operating rate of galvanizing enterprises was 60.87%, an increase of 11.26 percentage points from the previous week; the weekly operating rate of die - casting zinc alloy enterprises was 54.6%, an increase of 5.59 percentage points from the previous week; the weekly operating rate of zinc oxide enterprises was 59.73%, an increase of 1.16 percentage points from the previous week. A Canadian mining company made important progress in financing the resumption of production of a silver - lead - zinc mine in Mexico [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The silicon market has strong supply and weak demand, with high inventory pressure in the industry. The industrial silicon price is expected to remain weak in the short - term, ranging from 8,000 to 10,000 yuan/ton. The polysilicon price has rebounded at a low level due to delivery factors and production cut news. In the short - term, the price fluctuation will intensify, and if the contradiction between "high positions and low warehouse receipts" is not alleviated, a long position can be considered for the 06 contract [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industrial Silicon Price - The average price of non - oxygenated 553 (East China) remained flat at 9,050 yuan/ton, and the average price of 421 (East China) industrial silicon remained flat at 10,050 yuan/ton. The closing price of the futures main contract decreased by 1.32% to 8,205 yuan/ton [1]. Supply - In April, due to production cuts by some silicon enterprises in Xinjiang, the overall industrial silicon output decreased to about 300,000 tons. In May, affected by the resumption of production in the southwest production area during the flat - water period and the ramping up of some new production capacities, the output is expected to increase steadily, but the increase is limited [1]. Demand - Polysilicon enterprises maintain a production - cut state, and the resumption of production may be postponed. The organic silicon industry has a strong willingness to cut production to support prices, but the demand is weak, and the actual transaction price has declined. The domestic monomer enterprises' operating rates increase and decrease, and it is expected to drop below 55% in May. Silicon - aluminum alloy enterprises purchase as needed, and the downstream's willingness to stock up at a low level is insufficient [1]. Polysilicon Price - N - type dense material remained flat at 38 yuan/kg; polysilicon re - feedstock price remained flat at 35.5 yuan/kg; polysilicon dense material remained flat at 34.5 yuan/kg; polysilicon cauliflower material remained flat at 33.5 yuan/kg; the closing price of the futures main contract increased by 2.38% to 37,830 yuan/ton [1]. Supply - Silicon material enterprises maintain a production - cut state, and some silicon material factories may have new production capacity put into operation. The output is expected to be within 100,000 tons [1]. Demand - The strong installation period is basically over, the photovoltaic market is weak, the inventory of silicon wafers and silicon materials has increased, the prices of silicon wafers, battery cells and components have continued to decline, the market demand has slowed down, and some component delivery prices are close to new lows, with weak market transactions [1]. Other Information - On May 8, the total social inventory of industrial silicon in major regions was 596,000 tons, a decrease of 7,000 tons from the previous week. Among them, the social general warehouse was 133,000 tons, a decrease of 3,000 tons from the previous week, and the social delivery warehouse was 463,000 tons, a decrease of 4,000 tons from the previous week [1]. - On May 6, the Natural Resources Bureau of Wuhai City released the design plan for the first - phase of Inner Mongolia Xingfa Technology Co., Ltd.'s industrial silicon project. The project investment is 1.495 billion yuan, and the construction scale is a 100,000 - ton/year industrial silicon project [1].

黑色金属周报-双焦 供需宽松 延续弱势 2025年5月9日 目录 3000 3500 4000 4500 5000 5500 6000 1月 2月 3月 4月 5月 6月 7月 8月 9月 10月 11月 12月 焦煤总供给 2020年 2021年 2022年 2023年 2024年 2025年 数据来源：宏源期货研究所 第一部分 焦煤 第二部分 焦炭 1 焦煤 价格方面，上周焦煤价格震荡偏弱。现货方面：截至5月8日，焦煤蒙5精煤仓单1043元/吨，环比 降10元/吨，山西安泽主焦煤仓单1048元/吨，环比降20元/吨，进口煤方面，加拿大鹿景仓单价格1018， 环比降10元/吨；期货方面，焦煤主力合约价格下跌，环比上一交易周反弹下跌5.7%，JM9-1价差-18.5 元/吨（+31）。 基本面方面，从供应端来看，五一节后煤矿多维持正常生产，产地部分前期因井下原因产量受限 的煤矿恢复正常，供应端偏稳小幅回升，部分煤矿累库压力加大，炼焦煤价格稳中偏弱运行，少部分价 格有小幅下调情况。钢联数据显示，本周炼焦煤（523家）开工率89.9%，环比回升0.18%，日均精煤产 量80.61万吨，环比回升0.17万吨；需求方 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report The report maintains the view in the monthly report, regarding the short - term oil price as a rebound and repair. There are two main reasons: Saudi Arabia's pressure on OPEC+ has taken effect, and Kazakhstan may consider fulfilling its production cut obligations, reducing the need for OPEC+ to further accelerate production increases; tariff negotiations have made progress, and the short - term risk of further deterioration has decreased, improving market risk appetite. The main risk comes from the US - Iran peace talks. If the Trump administration makes further concessions to lower oil prices, there is a risk of further price decline. The support level for WTI crude oil is the previous low of $55, and the resistance level is between $66 - $67 [2][76]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - **Low - level Volatility**: After the holiday, oil prices oscillated at a low level with high volatility. Tariff negotiation progress improved the macro - sentiment, but OPEC+ production increases limited the bullish sentiment. As of May 8, WTI crude futures closed at $60.28 per barrel, and Brent crude closed at $63.12 per barrel. As of May 9, SC crude futures closed at 472.40 yuan per barrel [8]. - **Significant Decline in Calendar Spreads**: With the acceleration of OPEC+ production increases, calendar spreads declined significantly [9]. - **Low Net Long Positions of Funds**: As of the week ending April 29, WTI fund net long positions were 140,031 lots, a week - on - week increase of 8,296 lots; Brent fund net long positions were 106,722 lots, a week - on - week decrease of 6,080 lots. In the refined oil market, gasoline net long positions increased by 5,548 lots, diesel by 2,726 lots, and heating oil by 1,177 lots [14]. 3.2 Crude Oil Supply - **OPEC+**: After the May 3 OPEC+ meeting, member countries agreed to accelerate production increases by 411,000 barrels per day in June, and may do the same in July. If quota compliance does not improve, OPEC+ plans to gradually lift the 2.2 million barrels per day voluntary production cut by October. The reasons for continuous over - expected production increases may include internal discipline rectification, market share competition, and geopolitical games [18]. - **United States**: US crude oil production is at a high level, but the ability to increase production is limited due to the limited change in the number of rigs, and producers' willingness to expand production is also limited under low oil prices. As of the week ending May 2, 2025, US weekly crude oil production was 13.367 million barrels per day, a week - on - week decrease of 98,000 barrels per day, and the average weekly production in the past four weeks was 13.44 million barrels per day [28]. 3.3 Crude Oil Demand - **United States**: The US travel demand is entering a relatively peak season, which supports the demand for gasoline and jet fuel. As of the week ending May 2, US gasoline demand was 8.717 million barrels per day, a week - on - week decrease of 381,000 barrels per day and a year - on - year decrease of 80,000 barrels per day; distillate demand was 3.521 million barrels per day, a week - on - week decrease of 29,000 barrels per day and a year - on - year increase of 32,000 barrels per day; jet fuel demand was 2.022 million barrels per day, a week - on - week increase of 474,000 barrels per day and a year - on - year increase of 532,000 barrels per day. The total petroleum product demand was 19.872 million barrels per day, a week - on - week increase of 718,000 barrels per day and a year - on - year decrease of 418,000 barrels per day. The crack spread and refinery profit have slightly recovered, and refinery operations are gradually picking up [31][39][43]. - **China**: China's crude oil processing volume and refined oil production continue to decline year - on - year. In March 2025, the monthly crude oil processing volume was 63.058 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 718,000 tons. In terms of refined oil production, gasoline production in March was 13.22 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.071 million tons; diesel production was 16.805 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.884 million tons; kerosene production was 4.898 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 196,000 tons. In April 2025, China's crude oil imports were 48.061 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.341 million tons; refined oil imports were 3.566 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.104 million tons. Shandong local refineries' operations have shown a slow recovery trend, but they are still at a low level in the past five years [48][51][55]. 3.4 Crude Oil Inventory - **United States**: US crude oil inventory is at a relatively low level compared to previous years. As of the week ending May 2, US crude oil inventory (excluding SPR) was 438.376 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 2.032 million barrels and a year - on - year decrease of 21.152 million barrels. The SPR inventory was 399.122 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 580,000 barrels. Cushing's weekly crude oil inventory was 24.96 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 740,000 barrels. In the refined oil market, distillate and jet fuel inventories decreased slightly, and the refined oil inventory has dropped to a moderately low level [59][61][64]. - **OECD**: In March 2025, global crude oil supply was 103.74 million barrels per day, demand was 103.31 million barrels per day, with a supply - demand difference of 430,000 barrels per day. The demand declined in March, and the overall supply - demand was relatively loose. OECD slightly increased its inventory, and the overall inventory level was at a historically low position, with the inventory at the end of March at 2.718 billion barrels, a month - on - month increase of 4 million barrels [72]. 3.5 Summary and Outlook The report maintains the view in the monthly report, regarding the short - term oil price as a rebound and repair. There are two main reasons: Saudi Arabia's pressure on OPEC+ has taken effect, and Kazakhstan may consider fulfilling its production cut obligations, reducing the need for OPEC+ to further accelerate production increases; tariff negotiations have made progress, and the short - term risk of further deterioration has decreased, improving market risk appetite. The main risk comes from the US - Iran peace talks. If the Trump administration makes further concessions to lower oil prices, there is a risk of further price decline. The support level for WTI crude oil is the previous low of $55, and the resistance level is between $66 - $67 [76].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core View of the Report - The domestic lithium carbonate supply is expected to be loose in May, and the price of lithium carbonate may fall and be difficult to rise. It is recommended that investors mainly lay out short positions when the price rebounds, and pay attention to the support level around 19,000 - 60,000 and the pressure level around 60,000 - 73,000/75,000 [5] Summary According to Related Catalogs Lithium Futures Market - On May 8, 2025, the closing prices of the near - month, continuous first, continuous second, and continuous third contracts of lithium carbonate futures were 64,500 yuan/ton, 64,280 yuan/ton, 65,240 yuan/ton, and 65,240 yuan/ton respectively. The trading volume of the active contract was 309,284 lots, the open interest was 267,396 lots, and the inventory was 36,241 tons [1] - The price differences between different contracts and the basis have changed. For example, the difference between the near - month and continuous first contracts increased by 300 yuan/ton compared with the previous day [1] Lithium Spot Market - The average prices of various lithium products such as lithium ore, lithium carbonate, and lithium hydroxide have changed. For example, the average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5%/domestic) decreased by 1,400 yuan/ton to 65,250 yuan/ton [1] - The price differences between different types of lithium products also changed. For example, the price difference between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 800 yuan/ton [1] Industry News - Changsha Fudi Battery Co., Ltd.'s PCX production line expansion project has passed the administrative license, with a total investment of 100 million yuan. After the expansion, it can produce 19GWh of battery packs annually [2] - Bayi Jukong decided to terminate the "Annual Production of 3,000 Tons of Lithium Hexafluorophosphate Project" [3] - The first - phase cell workshop of Penghui Energy's energy - storage battery production project with a total investment of 19 billion yuan has been completed. The first - phase project covers an area of 275 mu with a production capacity of 22,690, mainly producing 314Ah lithium iron phosphate large - energy - storage cells [3] Supply and Demand Analysis - Supply side: After Tianqi Lithium's Greenbushes lithium 55,000 - ton wet - process project is put into production in October 2025, the total production capacity will reach 240,000 tons/year, which may lead to a decline in the price of domestic (imported) lithium ore. Some lithium salt production lines will be inspected or newly built, which may affect the supply of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide [4] - Demand side: The production and inventory of some products such as iron phosphate and lithium iron phosphate may increase. The production of some cobalt salts may decrease due to rising costs [4] Investment Strategy - It is recommended that investors mainly lay out short positions when the price of lithium carbonate rebounds, and pay attention to the support level around 19,000 - 60,000 and the pressure level around 60,000 - 73,000/75,000 [5]

| | PX&PTA&PR | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/5/9 | 品种 | 更新日期 | 单位 | 现值 | 前值 | 涨跌(幅) | | | 期货结算价(连续):WTI原油 | 2025/5/8 | 美元/桶 | 59.91 | 58.07 | 3.17% | | 上 | 期货结算价(连续):布伦特原油 | 2025/5/8 | 美元/桶 | 62.84 | 61.12 | 2.81% | | 游 | 现货价(中间价):石脑油:CFR日本 | 2025/5/8 | 美元/吨 | 554.50 | 562.00 | -1.33% | | | 现货价(中间价):二甲苯(异构级):FOB韩国 | 2025/5/7 | 美元/吨 | 657.50 | 640.50 | 2.65% | | | 现货价:对二甲苯PX:CFR中国主港 | 2025/5/8 | 美元/吨 | 778.00 | 767.67 | 1.35% | | | CZCE TA 主力合约 收盘价 | 2025/5/8 | 元/吨 | 4546.00 | ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2. Core View - The previous trading day, UR showed a relatively strong oscillation and closed at 1886. Looking ahead, due to the difficulty in confirming or refuting the changes in export policies in the short - term, two possibilities are considered. If export is confirmed to be liberalized, considering the large current price difference between domestic and foreign markets and the relatively considerable export profit, the domestic urea price may rise above 2000 after the export liberalization. If export remains restricted, after several rounds of false export speculations in the past, the price increase is basically taken back in the short - term. However, considering the expected peak season in the domestic market, the decline in urea price will stimulate demand, and it is believed that there is still support at the 1700 level. Strategically, it is recommended that long - position holders can appropriately realize part of the profits, and the remaining part should continue to monitor the direction of export policies [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures and Spot Prices - **Futures Prices**: On May 8, UR01 in Shandong closed at 1786 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan from May 7; UR05 closed at 1911 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan (- 0.05%); UR09 closed at 1882 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan (- 0.21%) [1]. - **Domestic Spot Prices (Small - Granule)**: In Shanxi and Henan, the prices remained unchanged at 1850 yuan/ton and 1900 yuan/ton respectively. In Hebei, it rose to 1950 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan (1.56%); in Northeast and Jiangsu, the prices remained stable at 1900 yuan/ton and 1910 yuan/ton respectively [1]. Basis and Spread - **Basis**: The basis of Shandong spot - UR was - 11 yuan/ton on May 8, up 1 yuan from May 7. - **Spread**: The 01 - 05 spread was - 125 yuan/ton on May 8, up 6 yuan from May 7 [1]. Upstream and Downstream Prices - **Upstream Cost**: The prices of anthracite coal in Henan and Shanxi remained unchanged at 1180 yuan/ton and 850 yuan/ton respectively. - **Downstream Prices**: The price of compound fertilizer (45%S) in Shandong remained at 2980 yuan/ton, while in Henan it dropped to 2560 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan (- 0.78%). The prices of melamine in Shandong, Jiangsu remained unchanged [1]. Important Information - On the previous trading day, the opening price of the main urea futures contract 2509 was 1875 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1890 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1859 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1882 yuan/ton, the settlement price was 1874 yuan/ton, and the position volume was 266569 lots [1].

| 2 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 变量名称 | 2025-05-08 | 2025-05-07 | 2025-04-25 | 较昨日变动 | 近期定势 | | 沪铜期货活跃合约 | 收盘价 | 77330 | 77790 | 77440 | -460.00 | | | | 成交量(手) | 116718 | 132768 | 110001 | -16, 050. 00 | | | | 持仓量(手) | 179692 | 179103 | 165933 | 589.00 | | | | 库存(吨) | 19540 | 21541 | 41588 | -2,001.00 | | | | SMM 1#电解铜平均价 | 78435 | 78580 | 781 45 | -145.00 | | | 沪铜基差或现货升贴水 | 沪铜基差 | 1105 | 790 | 705 | 315.00 | | | (现货与期货) | 广州电解铜现货升贴水 | 195 | 220 | 205 | | -25.00 ---------- | ...

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core View of the Report - The delay of the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation and successive interest - rate cuts by central banks in Europe, China, and the UK have strengthened the US dollar index. However, due to continuous gold purchases by multiple central banks and ongoing geopolitical conflicts, precious metal prices may experience short - term adjustments but are bullish in the long - run. It is recommended that investors mainly build long positions when prices decline. Specific support and resistance levels are provided for London gold, Shanghai gold, London silver, and Shanghai silver [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Precious Metal Market Data - **Gold**: Shanghai gold's closing price was 787.53 yuan/gram on 2025 - 05 - 08, down 11.36 from the previous day; COMEX gold futures' closing price was 3310.40, down 62.20; London gold spot was 3392.25 dollars/ounce, up 50.25 [1] - **Silver**: Shanghai silver's closing price was 8252.00 yuan/ten - grams on 2025 - 05 - 08, down 121.00; COMEX silver futures' closing price was 32.82, down 0.22; London silver spot was 32.23 dollars/ounce, down 0.45 [1] Important News - The US and the UK reached a tariff trade agreement. The US retains a 10% benchmark tariff, reduces the tariff on the first 100,000 imported British cars to 10%, and cuts steel and aluminum tariffs to zero. The UK reduces the tariff on US ethanol to zero and reaches a beef reciprocal access agreement [1] - Trump proposed to tax millionaires to balance finances, with a maximum rate of 39.6%. The Bank of England cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, but there was a three - way split in the decision. Kazakhstan said it had no plan to cut oil production before May [1] - The US Congress passed a temporary spending bill until September 30. The CBO predicts that the Treasury's funds may be depleted as early as August - October, which will slow the Fed's balance - sheet reduction. The Trump administration plans to cut the 2026 fiscal budget by $163 billion. US economic data in April delayed the Fed's expected interest - rate cut to July/September/December [1] - The European Central Bank cut interest rates by 25 basis points in April, with the deposit mechanism rate dropping to 2.25%. Eurozone economic data may lead the ECB to cut interest rates 2 - 3 times by the end of 2025 [1] - The Bank of England cut the key interest rate by 25 basis points to 4.25% in May and may cut interest rates 2 - 3 times by the end of 2025 [1] - The Bank of Japan raised interest rates by 25 basis points in January, and the market expects it to raise interest rates around July [1]