Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The Sino-US tariff negotiations have achieved initial results, and the inventory of electrolytic copper at home and abroad tends to decline. However, as the traditional off-season of consumption approaches, copper prices may be strong first and then weak. It is recommended that investors wait and see for the moment, paying attention to the support and resistance levels of copper prices in different markets [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data - **Shanghai Copper Futures**: On May 9, 2025, the closing price of the active contract was 77,450 yuan, up 120 yuan from the previous day; the trading volume was 111,450 lots, down 5,268 lots; the open interest was 181,319 lots, up 1,627 lots; the inventory was 19,165 tons, down 375 tons. The average price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper was 78,205 yuan, down 230 yuan. The Shanghai copper basis and various spot premiums and discounts, as well as the spreads between near - and far - month contracts, showed different degrees of change [2]. - **London Copper**: On May 9, 2025, the LME 3 - month copper futures settlement price (electronic trading) was 9,445.5 US dollars, up 14 US dollars. The total inventory of registered and cancelled warrants decreased, and the spreads of different LME copper futures contracts also changed [2]. - **COMEX Copper**: On May 9, 2025, the closing price of the active copper futures contract was 4.654 US dollars, up 0.03 US dollars, and the total inventory was 160,250 tons, up 3,627 tons [2]. Company News - **Jinchengxin**: It plans to acquire a 50% stake in Colombia's OM Company for 100 million US dollars and gain control. It will invest 230 million US dollars in the construction of the Alacran copper - gold - silver mine project, with an estimated investment of 420.4 million US dollars, a construction period of 2 years, and an expected mine life of 12 years. The company will contribute about 202.22 million US dollars according to the equity ratio and lead the subsequent development and construction of the mine, with an average annual ore mining volume of about 6.1 million tons, equivalent to 25,000 tons of copper, 1.4 tons of gold, and 16 tons of silver [2]. - **Codelco and Escondida Mine**: In March, Codelco's copper production increased by 14.8% year - on - year to 123,200 tons, and the Escondida mine under BHP Billiton's smelting had a 18.9% year - on - year increase in copper production to 120,600 tons [2]. Important Information - **Macro - economic**: The US Senate and House of Representatives reached an agreement on the budget resolution on April 10, including tax cuts of 5.5 trillion US dollars in the next ten years, an increase in the debt ceiling of 5 trillion US dollars, and a reduction in government spending of 4 billion US dollars. The Trump administration proposed to cut the federal fiscal budget by 163 billion US dollars in 2026. The US ISM manufacturing PMI and employment data in April were not bad, delaying the expected time of the Fed's interest rate cut to July, September, or December [2]. - **Upstream**: Some copper mines in Peru, Poland, Kazakhstan, etc. have production changes such as resumption or suspension. Some copper smelters at home and abroad have production adjustments due to various reasons, such as accidents, overhauls, and new capacity launches. The domestic copper concentrate production (import) volume, electrolytic copper production (import) volume, and waste copper production (import) volume may change in May. The inventory of electrolytic copper in China's bonded area, social inventory, and LME inventory decreased, while the COMEX inventory increased [2]. - **Downstream**: The new orders and long - order executions of refined copper rod enterprises decreased significantly, resulting in a decline in the capacity utilization rate of refined copper rods and an increase in that of recycled copper rods. The capacity utilization rate, production volume, import volume, and export volume of domestic copper product enterprises may decline in May, with different performances in different sub - industries [2]. 4. Trading Strategy Investors are advised to wait and see for the moment, paying attention to the support and resistance levels of copper prices in different markets: 70,000/73,000 - 75,000 yuan for Shanghai copper, 8,700 - 8,900 US dollars for London copper, 4.3 - 4.58 US dollars for COMEX copper on the support side, and 78,500 - 80,000 yuan for Shanghai copper, 9,600 - 9,800 US dollars for London copper, 4.85/5.0 - 5.2 US dollars for COMEX copper on the resistance side [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The delay of the expected timing of the Fed's interest rate cuts, along with the successive interest rate cuts by central banks in Europe, the UK, and other countries, has strengthened the US dollar index. The easing of geopolitical conflicts in regions such as Ukraine and India-Pakistan may lead to a short - term adjustment in precious metal prices. However, the expected slowdown of the US economic growth, the future interest rate cut expectations of the Fed, and the continuous gold purchases by multiple central banks may cause precious metal prices to fluctuate and strengthen in the medium to long term. Investors are advised to focus on the arbitrage opportunity of short - term, light - position, high - level shorting of the "gold - silver ratio" [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data - **Gold**: The closing price of Shanghai gold was 779.50 yuan/gram, with a change of - 2.23 compared to the previous value. The trading volume of spot Shanghai gold T + D was - 32,282.00, and the holding volume was 216,404.00. The closing price of COMEX gold futures active contract was 3248.30 US dollars/ounce, with a change of 18.70 compared to the previous value. The London gold spot price was 3324.55 US dollars/ounce, with a change of - 27.75 compared to the previous value [2]. - **Silver**: The closing price of Shanghai silver was 8100.00 yuan/kg, with a change of - 13.00 compared to the previous value. The trading volume of spot Shanghai silver T + D was - 199,344.00, and the holding volume was 3,499,912.00. The closing price of COMEX silver futures active contract was 32.65 US dollars/ounce, with a change of 0.28 compared to the previous value. The London silver spot price was 32.43 US dollars/ounce, with a change of 0.09 compared to the previous value [2]. - **Other Commodities and Financial Indicators**: The price of INE crude oil was 461.00 yuan/barrel, ICE Brent crude oil was 63.88 US dollars/barrel, and NYMEX crude oil was 58.98 US dollars/barrel. The Shanghai inter - bank offered rate SHIBOR overnight was 1.50%, and the one - year rate was 1.71%. The US 10 - year Treasury nominal yield was 4.3700%, and the TIPS yield was 2.0800%. Major stock indices such as the Shanghai Composite Index, S&P 500, and others also had corresponding price changes [2]. Important Information - **Geopolitical**: After the India - Pakistan cease - fire, there were explosions in the India - controlled Kashmir region. Ukraine plans to have an unconditional cease - fire for at least 30 days, and Putin proposed to resume Russia - Ukraine negotiations on May 15. Zelensky stated that Ukraine is ready for talks with Russia. The US and China agreed to establish an economic and trade consultation mechanism and will release a joint statement on May 12. Japanese Prime Minister Ishiba Shigeru reiterated "zero tariffs" and demanded the US to completely cancel automobile tariffs [2]. - **Macroeconomic and Central Bank Policies**: The US Congress passed a temporary spending bill until September 30. The CBO predicts that the Treasury's funds may be depleted between August and October, which may slow down the Fed's balance - sheet reduction. The Trump administration plans to cut the 2026 fiscal budget by 163 billion US dollars. The European Central Bank cut interest rates by 25 basis points in April, the Bank of England cut interest rates by 25 basis points in May, and the Bank of Japan raised interest rates by 25 basis points in January. Different central banks have different future interest - rate adjustment expectations based on their respective economic data [2]. Trading Strategies - Investors are advised to focus on the arbitrage opportunity of short - term, light - position, high - level shorting of the "gold - silver ratio". For London gold, pay attention to the support level around 3150 - 3250 and the resistance level around 3500 - 3700; for Shanghai gold, pay attention to the support level around 750 - 770 and the resistance level around 850 - 900. For London silver, pay attention to the support level around 28 - 30 and the resistance level around 35 - 36; for Shanghai silver, pay attention to the support level around 7400 - 7800/8000 and the resistance level around 8600 - 8900 [2].

保证所依据的信息和建议不会发生任何变化。我们已力求报告内容的客观、公正，但文中的观点、结论和建议仅供 参考，不构成任何投资建议。投资者依据本报告提供的信息进行期货投资所造成的一切后果，本公司概不负责。本 报告版权仅为本公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需 注明出处为宏源期货，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 风险提示：期市有风险，投资需谨慎！ 王江楠（F03108382，Z0021543），联系电话：010-82295006 | | PX&PTA&PR | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/5/12 | 品种 | 更新日期 | 单位 | 现值 | 前值 | 涨跌(幅) | | | 期货结算价(连续):WTI原油 | 2025/5/9 | 美元/桶 | 61.02 | 59.91 | 1.85% | | 上 | 期货结算价(连续):布伦特原油 | 2025/5/9 | 美元/桶 | 63.91 | 62.84 | 1.70% | | 游 | 现货价(中间价):石 ...

| | | | | 尿素早评20250512: 尿素偏强震荡 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日度 | | 单位 5月9日 5月8日 (绝对值) (相对值) | | | | 变化值 | 変化值 | | UR01 | | | 元/吨 | 1790.00 | 1786.00 | 4.00 | 0.22% | | UR05 山东 | 尿素期货价格 (收盘价) | | 元/吨 元/吨 | 1935.00 1920.00 | 1911.00 1900.00 | 24.00 20.00 | | | | | | | | | | 1.26% | | UR09 | | | 元/吨 | 1893.00 | 1882.00 | 11.00 | 0.58% 1.05% | | 期现价格 山西 河南 | | | 元/吨 元/吨 | 1890.00 1910.00 | 1850.00 1900.00 | 40.00 10.00 | 2.16% 0.53% | | 国内现货价格 | | | | | | | | | 河北 | (小顆粒) | | 元/吨 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report From the fundamental perspective, the consumption inflection point of finished products has emerged, the inventory reduction has significantly slowed down. The current Gangyin data shows that both cold and hot-rolled products are in a stockpiling trend, and there are signs of weakening supply and demand on the spot end. Coupled with market concerns about the decline in later exports, steel prices are operating weakly. In the short term, affected by the substantial progress in the Sino-US economic and trade high-level talks, sentiment may be boosted, but the rebound space is limited. Attention should be paid to the cost pressure of long-process production (3057), and cautious operation is recommended [7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Conclusion and Balance Sheet - Last week, domestic steel spot prices declined. For example, the price of rebar in East China's Shanghai was 3150 yuan (-50), and that in Tangshan was 3170 yuan (-20); the price of hot-rolled coil in Shanghai was 3200 yuan (-40), and that in Tianjin was 3180 yuan (-20) [5]. - As of May 8, the overall output of five major steel products decreased by 9.52 tons, the factory inventory of the five major products increased by 19.62 tons month-on-month, and the social inventory increased by 9.35 tons. The apparent demand was 845.2 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 125.66 tons [6]. - In 2024, the national crude steel output was 1.005 billion tons, a year-on-year decrease of 13.99 million tons, or 1.7%; the pig iron output was 852 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 13.27 million tons, or 2.3%. From January to March 2025, the cumulative pig iron output was 216 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 0.8%, and the cumulative crude steel output was 259 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 0.6% [15]. 3.2 Supply and Demand Fundamentals 3.2.1 Supply - Long-process supply: The capacity utilization rate of blast furnaces of 247 steel enterprises was 92.1%, a slight increase of 0.09 from the previous period, with a month-on-month increase of 0.10%; the daily average pig iron output was 245.6 tons, an increase of 0.22 from the previous period, with a month-on-month increase of 0.09% [50]. - Short-process supply: As of May 8, the capacity utilization rate of 89 domestic electric arc furnace plants was 34.2% (+3.1); the iron-scrap price difference was -78.92 yuan (-1.4) [53]. - Scrap steel: The daily consumption of 255 sample steel plants was 54.5 tons, a month-on-month increase of 1.79 tons; the daily arrival of 255 steel plants was 50.4 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 1.64 tons; the total scrap steel inventory of 255 steel enterprises was 518.7 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 20.86 tons, or 3.9% [6]. - Rebar production: This week, the original sample rebar production was 223.53 tons (-9.58), including 197.22 tons of long-process production (-6.61) and 26.31 tons of short-process production (-3.24) [66]. 3.2.2 Demand - Building materials transactions: The trading volume of building materials in the northern, eastern, and southern regions showed certain fluctuations, but overall, the demand was relatively weak [69][71][73]. - Cement mill operating rate: The average operating load of national cement mills was 44.13%, a decrease of 4.17 percentage points from the previous week, and the decline rate widened by 3.43 percentage points. Affected by the weather, the demand in some southern provinces decreased, and the mill operation decreased. Overall, the demand was weak, and only a few regions in the northwest still had a slight seasonal increase [76]. - Real estate sales: The transaction area and year-on-year data of commercial housing in 30 cities showed certain fluctuations, reflecting the instability of the real estate market [78]. 3.2.3 Inventory - Rebar inventory: The original sample rebar factory inventory was 188.27 tons (+15.11), the social inventory was 465.36 tons (-5.48), and the total inventory was 653.63 tons (+9.63) [82]. - Hot-rolled coil inventory: This week, the hot-rolled coil production was 320.38 tons, a month-on-month increase of 1.08 tons; the apparent demand was 309.53 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 6.34 tons; in terms of inventory, the factory inventory decreased by 0.7 tons, the social inventory increased by 11.55 tons month-on-month, and the overall inventory decreased by 6.86 tons [85]. 3.2.4 Export As of May 9, the FOB export price of China was 462 US dollars (+5), and the export profit was +13.5 US dollars (+4.45); the outbound volume of major domestic ports (32 ports) was 299.52 tons (-65.37) [95].

| M E G | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 5 / 5 / 1 2 品 种 更 新 日 期 单 位 现 值 前 值 涨 跌 幅 ( ) | | | | | | 2 0 | | 现 货 中 间 石 脑 C R 日 本 2 0 2 5 / 5 / 9 美 元 / 吨 5 6 9. 0 0 5 5 4. 5 0 2. 6 1 % : | | 价 ( | 价 ) | 油 : | F | | | 化 纤 格 指 数 乙 烯 东 2 0 2 5 / 5 / 9 美 / 吨 7 8 1. 0 0 7 8 1. 0 0 : 元 0. 0 0 % | | 价 | : | 北 | 亚 | | | 游 成 本 出 厂 价 : 环 乙 烷 : 华 区 2 0 2 5 / 5 / 1 2 元 / 吨 6 5 0 0. 0 0 6 5 0 0. 0 0 0. 0 0 % | | 均 | 氧 | 东 | 地 | 上 | | 现 货 甲 醇 A 2 0 2 5 / 5 / 9 元 / 吨 2 3 7 5. 0 0 2 3 7 5. 0 0 0. ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The price of tin is expected to be strong first and then weak due to the initial results of Sino - US tariff negotiations, the possible relaxation of US restrictions on chip exports to Gulf countries, the expected resumption of the tin mine in Myanmar's Wa State, and the increase in refined tin inventories at home and abroad. Investors are advised to wait and see, focusing on the support levels around 230,000 - 250,000 for Shanghai tin, 265,000 - 280,000 for resistance, and 28,000 - 30,000 for support and 32,000 - 34,000 for resistance for London tin [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Information Company News - Inner Mongolia Xingye Yinxi Mining Co., Ltd. plans to have its wholly - owned subsidiary, Xingye Gold (Hong Kong) Mining Co., Ltd., conduct an off - market conditional offer to acquire all the issued shares of Atlantic Tin Limited at a price of A$0.24 per share. The company will provide financial support for this transaction [3]. Market Data - **Shanghai Tin Futures**: On May 9, 2025, the closing price of the active contract was 259,540, down 1,940 from the previous day; the trading volume was 71,445 lots, a decrease of 32,879; the open interest was 30,130 lots, down 834; the inventory was 8,402 tons, up 68 [2]. - **Shanghai Tin Basis and Spreads**: The SMM 1 tin average price was 259,600, down 2,600 from the previous day; the basis was 60, down 660; the spread between the near - month and the first - continuous contract was - 240, up 60; the spread between the first - continuous and the second - continuous contract was 30, up 10; the spread between the second - continuous and the third - continuous contract was 30, down 200 [2]. - **London Tin**: The closing price of the LME 3 - month tin futures (electronic trading) on May 9, 2025, was 31,885, up 8 from the previous day; the 0 - 3 - month contract spread was - 43.01, up 115.06; the 3 - 15 - month contract spread was - 32, up 67.90; the global inventory was 2,705 tons, unchanged; the registered warrants were 2,395, unchanged; the cancelled warrants were 310, unchanged; the Shanghai - London tin price ratio was 8.14, down 0.06 [2]. Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply Side**: In Myanmar, the Manxiang tin mine in Wa State clarified the process of obtaining mining and exploration licenses on April 23 and significantly increased fees. Full resumption of normal mining may take about 2 months. Alphamin Resources announced the resumption of the Bisie tin mine in North Kivu Province, Congo (the production in 2024 and 2025 is 17,300 and 20,000 tons respectively). Domestic tin ore production (imports) in May may decrease (increase). The domestic tin concentrate processing fee is oscillating downward, indicating a tight supply expectation. The supply of scrap tin is expected to increase but cannot change the tight situation. The production of recycled tin in China in May may not increase. The operating rates of refined tin production capacity in Yunnan and China (Jiangxi) decreased (remained flat) compared with last week, and the production (inventory) of refined tin in China in May may decrease (decrease). Malaysia's MSC smelting company suspended tin production due to a natural gas pipeline explosion on April 1. Indonesia tightened the qualification review of exporters and adjusted the quota allocation mechanism. PT Tinah, an Indonesian state - owned tin mining company, plans to increase tin production and sales in 2025 from 18,915 and 17,507 tons to 21,545 and 19,065 tons respectively, and exports in May may increase. China's refined tin imports (exports) in May may increase (increase). The inventory of refined tin in the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased compared with last week, the social inventory of tin ingots in China increased, and the inventory of refined tin in the London Metal Exchange increased [4]. - **Demand Side**: The daily processing fee of photovoltaic welding ribbons decreased, and the operating rate (inventory) of tin solder production capacity in China in May may decrease (decrease). China's imports (exports) of welding ribbons in May may decrease (increase). The production (imports, exports) of tin - plated sheets in China in May may increase (decrease, decrease). The operating rate of China's lead - acid battery production capacity increased compared with last week [4].

2、中美经贸高层会谈5月10日至11日在瑞士日内瓦举行。中美经贸中方牵头人、国务院副总理何立峰当地时间11日晚在出席中方代表团 举行的新闻发布会时表示，此次中美经贸高层会谈坦诚、深入、具有建设性,达成重要共识,并取得实质性进展。双方一致同意建立中 美经贸磋商机制。中美双方将尽快敲定相关细节,并于5月12日发布会谈达成的联合声明。 宏源期货煤焦日报 3、央行一季度货币政策报告表示，保持融资和货币总量合理增长;实施好适度宽松的货币政策;维护金融市场稳定,坚决守住不发生系 统性金融风险的底线。中国政府债务扩张仍有可持续性,这对于加强民生保障、完善收入分配、推动经济转型和动态平衡都有重要意义 | | | | | | | | | | | | 2025/5/12 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 焦炭盘面 | | | | | 焦煤盘面 | | | | 基美 | | | | 昨日 | | 前日 | 涨跌 | | 昨日 | 明日 | 涨跌 | | 昨日 | ■日 | 涨跌 | | 12601 | 1474 ...

| 甲醇日评20250512: 关注进口变动情况 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 变化值 | 变化值 | 2025/5/8 | 单位 | 2025/5/9 | 指标 | (绝对值) | (相对值) | | | MA01 | 元/吨 | 2290.00 | 2285.00 | 5.00 | 0.22% | | | | | 元/吨 | MA05 | 2303.00 | 0.35% | 2295.00 | 8.00 | 甲醇期货价格 | (收盘价) | | | MA09 | 2216.00 | 元/吨 | 2227.00 | 11.00 | 0.50% | | | | | 太仓 | 元/吨 | 2397.50 | 2375.00 | 22.50 | 0.95% | | | | | 元/吨 | 山东 | 2350.00 | -10.00 | 2360.00 | -0.42% | | | | | 广东 | 元/吨 | 2365.00 | 2350.00 | 15.00 | 0.64% | 期现价格 | ...

Report Title - Alumina and Electrolytic Aluminum Daily Review 20250512: Increased Production of Bauxite in Guinea Leads to Looser Supply, and the Total Inventory of Domestic Aluminum Ingot and Aluminum Rod Decreases Month-on-Month [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The decreasing bauxite price leads to a decline in alumina production costs, but production losses cause a decrease in domestic alumina operating capacity, which may keep the alumina price fluctuating at a low level. Investors are advised to wait and see, focusing on the support level around 2300 - 2900 and the resistance level around 3000 - 3200 [5] - The Sino-US tariff negotiation has achieved progress, and the domestic social inventory of aluminum ingot and aluminum rod is decreasing. However, due to the approaching traditional consumption off-season, the Shanghai aluminum price may be strong first and then weak. Investors are advised to wait and see, focusing on the support level around 19000 - 19200 and the resistance level around 20000 - 20220 for Shanghai aluminum. For London aluminum, focus on the support level around 2200 - 2300 and the resistance level around 2500 - 2600 [5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Price and Transaction Data - **Shanghai Aluminum Futures Active Contract**: The closing price on May 9, 2025, was 19,585, up 75 from the previous day. The trading volume was 115,651 hands, a decrease of 151,912 hands. The open interest was 181,738 hands, a decrease of 10,967 hands. The inventory was 65,013 tons, a decrease of 1,093 tons [2] - **Shanghai Aluminum Basis**: The SMM A00 electrolytic aluminum semi-average price was 19,610, down 10. The Shanghai aluminum basis was 25, down 85 [2] - **Alumina Spot Price**: The national average price of alumina was 2,896.36, up 0.5. The average prices in different regions showed different changes, with the price in Guizhou increasing by 20 [2] - **Alumina Futures Price**: The closing price was 2,827, up 33. The trading volume was 969,975 hands, an increase of 240,853 hands. The open interest was 279,577 hands, an increase of 2,668 hands. The inventory was 249,763 tons, a decrease of 7,213 tons [2] - **London Aluminum**: The closing price of LME 3 - month aluminum futures (electronic trading) was 9,445.5, up 14. The LME aluminum futures 0 - 3 - month contract spread was 49.19, up 3.37 [2] 2. Important Information - **Upstream**: The production of bauxite in Shanxi and Henan has not fully resumed. Guinea plans to increase production, which may lead to a looser supply and a decline in the price of domestic and imported bauxite. The domestic alumina production capacity utilization rate has slightly decreased, and the inventory of electrolytic aluminum plants has decreased. Some new alumina production capacities are under construction or have been put into operation, which may increase the production in June [3] - **Mid - stream**: The production capacity utilization rate of domestic electrolytic aluminum has remained stable or slightly decreased, and the production may increase. Some overseas electrolytic aluminum plants have production changes, and the import volume of domestic electrolytic aluminum may decrease in May. The inventory in the bonded area has increased, while the social inventory has decreased [5] - **Downstream**: The outbound volume of aluminum rods in mainstream consumption areas has decreased, and the inventory of aluminum rods in various regions has decreased. The social inventory of aluminum alloy has remained unchanged. The raw material inventory of recycled aluminum alloy enterprises has decreased. The production capacity utilization rate of some downstream processing enterprises has increased, while that of others has decreased [5] 3. Trade Agreement - On May 8, 2025, the US and the UK reached a bilateral trade agreement. The US will cancel the 25% tariff on UK steel and aluminum products and reduce the import tariff on UK cars from 27.5% to 10% for the first 100,000 cars per year. In exchange, the UK will cancel the import tariff on US ethanol and open the beef market [2]